第74集：蚂蚁集团——史上最大规模IPO？

大家好。

Hi everyone.

我们预测本月中国科技头条的王者将只有一家公司。

We predict there is going to be one company and one company only that's the king of China Tech headlines this month.

而且不是字节跳动，尽管其TikTok分拆的戏剧性进展令人兴奋。

And no, it's not ByteDance, exciting as the drama of its TikTok spin off is turning out to be.

不是。

Nope.

是蚂蚁集团，可能创下史上最大规模IPO。

It's Ant Group and what might be the biggest offering in history.

没错，媒体报道该公司计划通过IPO融资300亿美元，这将超越沙特阿美去年12月294亿美元的募资纪录。

Yeah, media is reporting that the company seeks to raise $30,000,000,000 in its IPO, which means it would edge out Saudi Arabia's Aramco who raised $29,400,000,000 last December.

当然也远超阿里巴巴2014年250亿美元的IPO规模。

And of course, pitting Alibaba's own IPO, which was a colossal $25,000,000,000 back in 2014.

我不确定。

I don't know.

我觉得他们必须冲击最大规模纪录，毕竟差距如此接近，对吧？

I feel like they have to go for title of largest because they're so close, you know?

而且他们已经保持着史上最大单笔私募融资纪录。

And they already have the record for largest ever single private fundraise.

那是在2018年，他们以1500亿美元估值融资了惊人的140亿美元。

That was when they raised a staggering $14,000,000,000 in 2018 at a $150,000,000,000 valuation.

这也是我们第11期节目首次报道这家公司的时候：《马云的新晋千亿独角兽》。

Which is also when we first covered the company here on Episode 11: Jack Ma's newest Centricorn.

当时，蚂蚁集团刚刚宣布将逐步从占收入过半的支付业务转型为一家主要依靠其所谓技术服务获取收入的公司。

Back then, Ant had just announced that it would gradually transition from the payments business which accounted for over half of revenues into a company that would rely mostly on what it calls technical services for revenue.

实现了吗？

Did that happen?

要扭转这么大一个业务可不容易，对吧？

Quite a big business to be turning around, no?

我是说，大多数人知道的支付业务就是支付宝，让我查一下，2018年拥有5.2亿用户，占据中国移动支付市场54%的份额。

I mean, most people knew the payments business as Alipay, which had, let me check, $520,000,000 users in 2018 and fifty 4% of China's mobile payments market share.

可能直到今天还有很多人把蚂蚁和支付宝划等号，但它现在早已不止于此。

Probably a lot of people even today equate and with Alipay, but it's far beyond that now.

其实支付宝本身也发展得不错。

Well, it's not like Alipay hasn't grown.

它已拥有超过10亿用户和8000万商户。

It has over 1,000,000,000 users and 80,000,000 merchants.

但即便规模如此庞大，如今支付业务也只占收入的三分之一多一点。

But even at that scale, the payments business is just over a third of revenues these days.

没错。

That's right.

这意味着其他业务增长得更快。

That means the rest of the business grew even faster.

那总收入呢？

And total revenues?

今年可能超过200亿美元。

Probably over $20,000,000,000 this year.

而且这还是30%的净利润率。

And that's with a 30% net margin.

那蚂蚁集团的其他业务呢？

And what is all the rest of Ant?

如果你回头听第11期节目，或者你记忆力超群，就会对这些产品有所了解。

Well, if you went back and listened to episode 11, or you just have an amazing memory, you'll have a good idea of some of those products.

但今天我们会补充完整其他部分。

But today, we'll fill in the rest.

最后你来告诉我们，你是否认为蚂蚁集团配得上'史上最大IPO'这个称号带来的兴奋，还是觉得虽然可能是事实，但依然只是过度炒作。

And at the end, you tell us if you think Ant truly deserves the excitement around achieving the title of biggest IPO ever or if you think, yeah, that might be true, but it's still just a lot of hype.

总统的核心经济团队前往中国。

The president's key economic team goes to China.

在家庭生活银行业务之后，我说我还是想做这件事。

After home life banking, I say I still wanna do it.

大家好，我们是《科技热点中国》，由PanDaily出品，Cip中国旗下的Seneca播客网络提供支持。

Hi We are Tech Buzz China by PanDaily, powered by the Seneca Podcast Network by Cip China.

我们是一档双周播客，专注于带您一窥中国科技社区的最新热点。

We are a biweekly podcast focused on giving you a peek into what's buzzing within the tech community in China.

我们挖掘并解读那些英文报道中不常见到的头条科技新闻的独特见解、观点和要点，让您更深入地了解中国科技世界。

We uncover and contextualize unique insights, perspectives, and takeaways on headline tech news that don't always make it into English language coverage, so you can be smarter about the world of China tech.

《科技热点中国》是pandaily.com的一部分，这是一个英文网站，向您讲述中国创新的方方面面。

TechBuzz China is a part of pandaily.com, an English language site that tells you everything about China's innovation.

我是两位联合主持人之一，Ying Lu。

I'm one of your two co hosts, Ying Lu.

我是另一位联合主持人Ray Ma。

And I'm your other co host, Ray Ma.

我们隶属于由Sep China创立的Seneca播客网络。

We are part of the Seneca Podcast Network created by Sep China.

除了《科技热点》，您还可以收听Seneca出品的时事节目。

In addition to Tech Buzz, you can also find Seneca, which covers current affairs.

我们也很荣幸与《金融时报》旗下《Tech Scroll Asia》简报合作，这份聚焦亚洲科技动态的刊物堪称业界标杆。

And we're also proud to be partnered with Financial Times' Tech Scroll Asia, a newsletter on Asia tech news from one of the best publications in the business.

立即访问ft.com/techscrollasia注册吧！

Go to ft.com/techscrollasia to sign up today!

一如既往，我们

And as always, we

仍在期待更多苹果播客的评论！

are still looking for more reviews on Apple Podcasts!

将您的评论截图发送给我们任意一人，即可获赠《Extra Buzz》简报三个月免费订阅。

Send either of us a screenshot of your review and we will gift you a free three month subscription to our Extra Buzz newsletter.

您可以通过yingtechbuzzchina.com给我发送邮件。

You can send me an email at yingtechbuzzchina dot com.

已有部分听众成功兑换，我们非常欢迎这样的互动。

Several of you have already claimed this and we love it when you do.

非常感谢。

Thanks so much.

我们曾考虑等IPO消息公布后再录制本期节目，不过还是算了。

We thought about waiting for the IPO to drop before we recorded this episode, but nah.

我认为这份674页的初步招股说明书已经足够我们开展工作了。

I think the six seventy four page preliminary prospectus gives us way enough to work with.

实际上内容太多了。

Too much actually.

因此我们必须精简业务部分，只保留最重要的内容。

So we have to necessarily cut out some parts of the business and keep in only the most important ones.

好的，在开始之前，我想建议如何最有效地收听本期内容而不迷失方向，因为蚂蚁的业务确实非常庞杂，容易让人困惑。

Okay, before we start, I have a suggestion on how you can listen to this episode most effectively without getting lost, because Ant really does have a lot of stuff going on and it is kind of confusing.

具体方法是：记住以下几个收入板块，并时刻问自己——这项服务属于哪个收入板块？

And that is, remember these following revenue segments and always ask yourself, which revenue segment does this service fall into?

这些板块分别是：数字支付与商户服务、信贷科技、投资科技和保险科技——这些业务基本都如其名所示。

The segments are as follows: Digital Payments and Merchant Services, and Credit Tech, Investment Tech, and InsurTech, all of which do pretty much exactly what their names tell you they do.

没错，这些命名毫无创意可言！

Yep, no points for creativity there!

但值得注意的是，支付业务约占收入的三分之一强，而在剩余三分之二中，信贷科技占比超60%——这意味着信贷科技实际占总收入近40%，是最大板块；投资科技仅占15%远远落后，保险科技更是只占8%。

But also this that payments is about a bit over a third of the revenue stream and that of the remaining two thirds, credit tech accounts for over 60% which means that actually credit tech is nearly 40% of total revenues and has the single largest slice, with Investment Tech lagging far behind at 15% and InsurTech barely registering at 8%.

这意味着要理解蚂蚁，就必须了解其支付和信贷科技业务。

Which means that to understand Ant, you must know its payments and credit tech businesses.

幸运的是，我们将重点探讨这两部分。

And luckily for you, we are going to be spending a lot of time on those.

但首先，让我们回到蚂蚁的创业史。

But first, let s get back to the history of how Ant got started.

这当然要追溯到2000年代初——当时阿里巴巴已成立四年，正计划推出一个C2C交易平台（因为那时eBay风头正盛），让人们可以互相买卖商品。

Of course, that means we go back in time to the early two thousand's where Alibaba has been around for four years and it's looking at launching a C2C marketplace where people can buy stuff from each other because back then eBay was all the rage.

那当然就是2003年5月推出的淘宝。

That of course was Taobao which was launched in May 2003.

而它需要解决的第一个问题就是信任。

And the very first problem it had to solve was trust.

如何让相隔千里的陌生人互相转账？

How do you get strangers separated by thousands of miles to send money to each other?

要知道，当时PayPal等国际支付机制在中国根本行不通。

Remember, international payment mechanisms such as PayPal didn't really work in China at this point.

因此，显而易见的解决方案就是阿里巴巴必须自建担保交易服务。

So, the obvious solution was Alibaba had to make its own escrow service.

支付宝应运而生。

Enter Alipay.

据称，该系统完成的第一笔交易是2003年10月售出的一台二手数码相机，那时距淘宝正式上线仅五个月。

Supposedly, the first transaction completed under the system was a used digital camera sold in October 2003, that is five months after Taobao officially launched.

尽管有交易担保，客服还是不得不介入劝说买家不要取消交易。

Despite guaranteeing the transaction, customer service had to step in and convince the buyer not to back out.

这在当时仍是个相当新潮的概念。

It was at the time still a pretty newfangled concept.

但由于其设计理念非常合理，到2004年初，淘宝70%的交易都支持通过支付宝完成。

But because it made so much sense, by the beginning of 2004, 70% of transactions on Taobao would be available through Alipay.

但马云并不满足于让支付宝只作为淘宝的一部分。

Jack Ma though was not content to let Alipay be a part of Taobao.

他坚信这应该成为全行业的支付平台，而消费者对线上交易的信心和信任都取决于它的成功。

He firmly believed that it should be a payment platform for everyone in the industry and that consumer confidence and trust in online transactions hinged upon its success.

正因如此，在2004年12月，即支付宝上线一年多后，它成为了拥有独立账户系统的产品。

Which is why in December 2004, a bit over a year after it was first launched, Alipay became its standalone product with its own account system.

此后，支付宝通过推出全额赔付的营销活动，迅速扩大了用户基础。

Thereafter, Alipay launched marketing campaigns basically guaranteeing payments in full and quickly grew its user base.

形势看似一片大好，但人们仍普遍认为支付宝与淘宝绑定。

Things were looking good, but there was just one thing people still thought Alipay was tied to Taobao.

为扭转这一误解，支付宝随后数年积极拓展游戏公司等合作场景——比如支持《魔兽世界》点卡预付，甚至在2007年进军香港试水国际市场。

In order to correct that misconception, Alipay spent the next several years establishing such as with gaming companies, so you could prepay for your World of Warcraft gameplay, for example, and even expanded abroad dipping its toe in the international market by going to Hong Kong in 2007.

虽然当时它已是市场领头羊，但说实话用户体验简直糟糕透顶。

It was definitely the market leader at this point, but it was still, honestly speaking, a piece of crap to use.

完成单笔交易需要跳转七个页面，因为所有操作仍需通过网银完成，成功率极低。

You had to jump through seven pages to complete a single transaction and that's because everything still had to go through your internet banking and completion rates were low.

好吧，也不算太低，大概60%左右。

Well, not that low, something like 60%.

确实，我2007年到中国时也基本不用支付宝，因为操作实在太麻烦了。

Yeah, I personally never really used Alipay because when I arrived in China in 2007, it just seemed such a pain to use.

但不可否认他们是先行者，其商业模式后来被腾讯微信等企业研究效仿并直接受益。

But it's undeniable that they were pioneers and built a playbook by which others, like Tencent's WeChat, would later study and emulate and directly benefit from.

2010年他们联合多家传统银行伙伴，共同制定了降低交易摩擦的方案。

Indeed, in 2010, they sat down with a bunch of traditional banking partners and outlined how to decrease friction for the transaction.

流程得到大幅简化，用户只需输入密码即可完成支付。

Things were greatly streamlined so that all you really had to do was to put in your pin.

这使得交易成功率飙升至90%。

That boosted completion rates to 90%.

这个被称为'快捷支付'或'快速支付'。

This was called kuaizhi fu or quick pay.

流程简化的部分意义在于，你现在不必再局限于使用Internet Explorer进行所有支付操作，因为那曾是唯一与中国银行系统兼容的浏览器。

Part of the streamlining also meant that now you didn't have to do all of your payments in Internet Explorer anymore because that was the only browser compatible with the Chinese banking system.

还记得那些早期日子吗？

Remember those early days?

那时相当不方便。

It was pretty inconvenient.

但现在突然之间，支付宝可以在其他浏览器和操作系统上运行了。

But now, all of a sudden, Alipay could work in other browsers and on other operating systems.

与此同时发生的另一件事对支付宝的成功也至关重要，那就是'双十一'购物节的诞生。

Something else happened around this time that was also crucial to Alipay's success and that was the invention of Singles Day.

我们在Tech Buzz第29期讨论过这个巨型'购物节'的历史，简单来说，当时阿里巴巴CEO张勇认为中国没有类似黑色星期五的节日，为何不凭空创造一个呢？

We talked about the history of the massive shopping quote unquote holiday in Tech Buzz episode 29, but basically, now Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang decided that since China didn't have corresponding Black Friday, why didn't Alibaba just make one up out of thin air?

接下来的故事你们都知道了。

And you already know how the story goes.

这成为了一个一夜爆红的成功案例。

This was one of those overnight runaway successes.

阿里巴巴几乎立即面临的问题就是：如何强化支付系统？

And pretty much immediately, Alibaba has to figure out how do we beef up the payment system?

因为当时每分钟处理数千笔交易（这在当时被认为是惊人的数量）给系统带来了巨大压力。

Because we're really putting a lot of stress on it by sending through what was then considered a staggering thousands of transactions a minute.

而去年双十一的峰值交易量已经达到每秒超过50万笔。

Well, last year's Singles Day was a peak of more than half a million transactions per second.

所以，支付宝自那时起已经走过了很长的路。

So, Alipay has come a long way since then.

不过在当时，究竟是自建云计算和数据库管理系统，还是采用现有的开源方案才是正确选择，这一点并不那么显而易见。

At the time though, it wasn t so obvious that building their own cloud and database management system versus say, using an existing open source one was the right play.

这无疑是个更艰难的选择。

It was certainly the harder play.

但这个选择最终得到了回报，因为现在阿里云已成为全球第三大云服务提供商。

But then that's paid off because now Aliyuan, that is Alibaba Cloud, is the third largest provider globally.

好吧，但这不属于蚂蚁集团的部分。

Okay, but that's not part of Ant Group.

我们只是在梳理蚂蚁发展历程中的所有重大里程碑。

We're just going down the timeline of all the big milestones in Ant's life.

现在我们来到了2011-2012年左右，那时中国智能手机的普及率开始飙升。

And now, of course, we've arrived at around twenty eleven-twenty twelve which is when Chinese adoption of smartphones goes through the roof.

2012年年中，移动互联网用户数量正式超过PC互联网用户，也是微信推出并迅速风靡全国的时候。

Mobile internet users officially exceed PC internet users in mid-twenty twelve and also when WeChat launches and takes the country by storm.

但在继续之前，我们先正式确认一下蚂蚁从阿里巴巴分拆出来的事件。

But before we go there, let's officially recognize the spinning off of Ant from Alibaba.

这里就不详细展开了，因为我们在第11集时已经讨论过，当时公司还叫蚂蚁金服，估值仅1500亿美元。

We won't go into detail here because we did that once already in episode 11 when the company was still called Ant Financial and worth just $150,000,000,000

对。

Right.

简而言之就是：正在规范第三方支付机构的中国政府，可能会因为支付宝的外资背景而拒绝发放其梦寐以求的支付牌照——至少马云是这么声称的。

The TLDR is that the Chinese government, who was in the process of regulating third party payment providers, might deny Alipay one of the coveted operating licenses because it was foreign owned or so Jack Ma claimed.

于是他决定将支付业务分拆出来，成立一个他持股80%的独立实体。

So he decided to spin off the payment business to a separate entity he owned 80% of.

砰！

Boom!

问题解决了！

Problem solved!

不再是外资控股了！

No longer foreign owned!

你问为什么阿里巴巴曾经被认为是外资公司？

Why would Alibaba ever have been considered a foreign company, you ask?

当时它主要由雅虎和软银控股，一家美国公司和一家日本公司。

Well, it was majority owned by Yahoo and SoftBank, an American company and a Japanese company at the time.

我是说，确实，我知道这理由有点牵强，毕竟腾讯也是类似情况。但由于从分拆发生到被发现之间有很长的时间差——实际上距离第一笔交易已近两年——大家只能接受这个事实。

I mean, yeah, I know, it's kind of a weak excuse since so was Tencent, but because there was a long lag before the spin off occurred and when it was discovered, actually almost two years since the first transaction, people just had to work with it.

分拆不可能撤销，各方——包括像马云和雅虎这样互相看不顺眼的——只能达成妥协。

The spin off was not going to get unwound and the parties, some of whom hated each other, like Jack and Yahoo, just had to come to a compromise.

让阿里巴巴持有这个包含支付宝的新实体约三分之一的股份，并将新公司命名为蚂蚁。

Have Alibaba own about a third of this new entity with Alipay in it and call that new thing Ant.

叫蚂蚁是因为它专注于小客户，无论是个人还是小微企业。

Ant because the focus on small customers, whether they be individuals or small businesses.

但这就是为什么大多数最有价值初创企业榜单都不包含蚂蚁——因为它不是从零开始打造的。

But this is why most of those most valuable startup lists don't include Ant because it wasn't built from the ground up.

它的B轮融资额高达45亿美元（那是2016年的事）。

I mean, its Series B was $4,500,000,000 (that was in twenty sixteen).

这看起来绝对不像是一家初创公司，对吧？

It definitely doesn't look like a startup, right?

顺便说一句，马云现在并不持有蚂蚁集团80%的股份。

Jack Ma, by the way, doesn't own 80% of Ant these days.

不过你也不用为他感到惋惜，他持有的8.8%蚂蚁股份按照目前2000亿美元的IPO估值计算至少价值180亿美元。

But you don't need to shed any tears for him either his 8.8% stake in Ant is worth about $18,000,000,000 at least at the current floated IPO valuation of 200,000,000,000.

确实，支付宝那次秘密分拆操作很可疑，但这个人确实知道自己在做什么。

Sure, the secret Alipay spin off was pretty shady, but the man also does know what he's doing.

比如马云很早就预见到移动互联网将成为下一个风口，他在2009年就让支付宝团队推出了应用程序。

For example, Jack Ma very early on perceived that mobile internet was going to be the next big thing and he had the Alipay team launch an app in 2009.

他还早早察觉到了微信的威胁，让支付宝支持二维码支付，使其不仅能用于线上交易，还能轻松完成线下交易。

He also perceived the threat of WeChat early on and had Alipay accept QR codes so that it could be used more easily for not just online but also offline transactions.

这在战略上非常明智。

This was really smart strategically.

当然，微信也做了同样的事。

And of course, WeChat did the same.

中国是二维码的国度。

China is the land of QR codes.

有段时间，这两大巨头展开了一场竞赛，看谁能签约更多商户使用各自的支付应用。

For a while, it was a race between these two giants to see how many merchants they could sign up to accept their respective payment apps.

接下来我们会快速回顾这几年的发展，因为请务必回去听听《科技热点》第11期节目好吗？

This is where we'll go really quickly through the next several years because please do go back and listen to Tech Buzz episode 11, will you?

如果你想了解更详细的内容。

If you want more details.

与此同时，在我们讲述的2013年，阿里巴巴推出了余额宝，这个超级灵活的货币市场基金账户，你只需1元人民币（约合15美分）就能开始投资，并且每天都能获得利息。

Meanwhile, we're in year 2013 of our retelling and Alibaba launches UOBAL, this super liquid money market fund account that you could start investing in for as little as 1 RMB (that's like 15 cents) and receive interest daily.

实际上，你可以进行24/7的存取款操作。

Actually, you could do 20 fourseven withdrawals and deposits.

我是说，何乐而不为呢？

I mean, why not?

在应用里只需轻点几下就能完成！

It's all just a few taps in the app!

虽然每日利率会随市场波动，但极低的准入门槛、每日流动性以及超级简单的应用体验，使得这款产品迅速爆红。

The interest rate you got every day fluctuated with the market, but the extremely low barrier to entry and the daily liquidity as well as a super simple app experience meant that this product exploded in popularity.

想想看，你获得的是一款使用起来和活期账户一样简单的消费金融产品收益。

Think about it, you are getting returns on a consumer finance product that is effectively as easy to use as your checking account.

正如很多人指出的，这和Robinhood的免佣金交易及零碎股一样具有革命性。

As many people have pointed out, this was as revolutionary as Robinhood with their no fee trading and fractional shares.

是啊，我不知道还能怎么让它变得更简单。

Yeah, I'm not sure how much easier you can make it.

除非像埃隆·马斯克的Neuralink那样直接连到大脑，连点击都不需要。

You'd literally have to make it connected to your brain like Elon Musk's Neuralink or something so you don't even have to tap.

总之，就像Robinhood之于股票交易，阿里巴巴的余额宝就是支付宝资产管理业务的里程碑。

Anyway, just as Robinhood was to stock trading, Alibaba's Yuebao was to Alipay's asset management business.

顺便说下，如果你好奇的话，如今余额宝规模已达1730亿。

In case you're curious, by the way, Yuba is 173,000,000,000 today.

还记得我们之前说过的收入板块吗？

Remember what we said about the revenue segments?

应该很明显，这就是被称为投资科技的那15%业务的起点。

It should be pretty clear that this is the beginning of that 15% of the business called investment tech.

不过我们还是尽量按时间顺序来，既然我们还在总结第11集的内容，那就直接快进一年多到2015年1月，当时蚂蚁推出了芝麻信用——中国当时还没有信用评分体系。

Let's try to keep it in chronological order though, and since we're still summarizing stuff we went through in episode 11, let's just skip a bit more than a year ahead to January 2015 when Ant launched Sesame Credit China doesn't have a credit scoring system.

中国政府决定通过发放八种初步许可证来纠正这种情况，本质上就是允许不同实体开展信用评分业务。

The Chinese government decides to rectify this by giving out eight sort of preliminary licenses, but basically it's permission to engage in credit scoring to various entities.

当然蚂蚁获得了其中一张牌照，腾讯也是，芝麻信用就这样诞生了。

And of course receives one and so does Tencent, but that's how Sesame Credit was born.

面向消费者的主要产品就是芝麻信用分，根据官网说明，这个分数由你的信用历史、行为偏好、履约能力、身份特质和人脉关系综合计算得出。

The main consumer facing product is basically your Sesame Credit score, which according to the website is calculated by your credit history, behavior and preferences, how well you fulfilled past contracts, other identity factors, and your personal connections.

要注意这比美国信用评分涵盖的范围广得多——后者主要反映你的负债情况、当前可借贷额度，以及与收入相比的负债水平，还有过往信用记录。

Note that this is substantially broader than what your US credit score would reveal, which is really just how much debt you've taken on and currently allowed to take on, and what that looks like compared to your income and how credit worthy you've been in the past.

现在我们进入了新领域，从产品角度来说，你已经基本了解我们在TechBuzz节目里覆盖过的所有终端产品了。

And this is where we're getting into new territory and you're pretty much caught up, product wise anyway, on all the end products that we had covered on TechBuzz before.

它们分别是'花'和'借'，顾名思义就是'消费'和'借款'。

They are and which mean just spend and just borrow respectively.

我本想用自己的话解释，但实际上招股书写得非常到位——感谢那些辛勤工作的银行家和律师们。

I was going to explain them in my own words but actually I think the prospectus does a mighty fine job, bless those hardworking bankers and lawyers.

以下是蚂蚁官方的描述：2014年我们推出花呗，这是中国首批面向消费者的数字化无担保循环信用产品，用于日常消费支出。

And so, here's how Ant describes them: In 2014, we launched Huabe, which was among the first digital unsecured revolving credit products for daily expenditures offered to consumers in China.

2015年我们推出借呗，这是一款针对大额消费交易的短期数字化无担保消费信贷产品，旨在满足已建立足够信用历史的花呗用户的消费需求。

In 2015, we launched Jiebei, a short term digital unsecured consumer credit product for larger consumption transactions to meet the spending needs of Huabe users who develop a sufficient credit history.

嗯，我觉得说得很清楚了。

Yeah, that's pretty clear, I think.

基本上，花呗就像一张信用卡，不过是虚拟的。

Basically, Huabe is like a credit card, albeit a virtual one.

实际上，它的英文名称是Ant Credit Pay。

In fact, its English name is Ant Credit Pay.

你可以申请信用额度，立即获得低至7美元、高达7000美元的信用额度。

You apply for a credit line and you can get anywhere from as low as $7 and up to $7,000 in credit available immediately.

不幸的是，我的支付宝账户绑定了美国号码，所以无法获批。考虑到我的芝麻信用分很一般（因为我从未使用过），而这是决定花呗额度的关键因素，我可能更接近7美元而不是7000美元。

Unfortunately, I have my US number tied to my Alipay account, so couldn't get approval, but given that my Sesame credit score is very average since I never use it, and that's a key determinant of how much I'd be able to get through Huabe, I'm probably nearer $7 than the 7,000.

而且花呗也有使用限制。

And there are limitations to Huabe.

就像支付宝、万事达或维萨卡一样，它并非所有地方都接受。

Just like Alipay or MasterCard or Visa, it's not accepted everywhere.

但大多数电商网站都接受花呗，越来越多的线下商户也开始支持。

But most ecommerce sites accept it and a growing number of offline merchants as well.

现在即使是不支持花呗的商户，你也能获得70美元的月度信用额度。

And you can now get a $70 monthly credit line even for those merchants who don't accept it.

虽然不多，但总比没有强。

Not much, but better than nothing.

最重要的是，你不能用花呗提取现金。

Most importantly though, you can't get cash advances on Huabe.

这是被禁止的。

It's prohibited.

如果被发现违规操作，你的账户很快就会被冻结。

And if you're found out to be doing it, you'd get your account frozen pretty quickly.

顺便说一下，预借现金行业在中国相当庞大。

By the way, the cash advance industry is a pretty big one in China.

我不知道世界其他地方的情况如何，但在美国，由于额外费用、更高利率、没有免息期等因素，用信用卡预借现金相当昂贵。

I don't know how it is in the rest of the world, but here in The US, it's pretty expensive to get a cash advance from your credit card because of extra fees, higher interest rates, no grace period on collecting interest, etc.

在中国，手续费更高，而且你必须一次性还清预借现金余额，不能像普通信用卡账单那样只还最低还款额，这使得如果想套现，人们更有动力钻系统空子。

In China, you have higher fees, and the fact that you have to repay the cash balance all at once, you can't pay a minimum balance like you can with your typical credit card balances, which makes it doubly more attractive to try to game the system if you want to get cash.

是啊，这就是为什么有大量人使用POS机（销售终端机），它们的商业模式本质上就是帮你用信用卡伪造交易来套现。

Yeah, which is why you have a ton of folks with POS, that's point of sale machines, whose business model is literally to help you that is, to get a cash advance by using your credit card and faking a transaction.

当然这是不允许的，但挡不住人们这么做。

It's not allowed, of course, but that hasn't stopped people from doing it.

就像我们说的，花呗也禁止这种行为，并试图通过先进的反欺诈软件来抓取。

As we've said, Huabe bans it too and tries to catch it using advanced anti fraud software.

但有些估计显示欺诈交易可能占总交易量的三分之一，所以我不认为这种现象会很快消失。

But some estimates put fraudulent transactions at up to one third of total transaction volumes, so I don't know that it's going away anytime soon.

这也是我的投资人朋友总是关注的重点之一，他们想了解准备投资的交易平台真实交易量。

It's also one of the things my investor friends are always looking for to understand the true volume of the transaction platforms they're looking at investing in.

不过对花呗来说，这个风险在个人层面终究是有上限的。

But still, for Huabe, this risk is capped on an individual level anyway.

虽然花呗额度最高可达7000美元，但普通用户额度要低得多。

While Huawei credit limits do go up to $7,000 your average user is going to be much lower than that.

记住，在中国月薪起薪1000美元甚至更低的地方，花呗是用于日常消费而非大件商品，只要财务上谨慎就够用了。

Remember, in China, where monthly salaries begin at $1,000 or lower, Huawei is meant to be your everyday consumption and not big ticket items, so it is sufficient if you're being financially prudent.

你可以把花呗看作蚂蚁集团专有的受控系统，由于额度低且消费受限，它能很好掌握逾期或违约风险。

You can think of Huabe as the proprietary and controlled system where Ant is able to have a really good grasp of the delinquency or default risk because limits are low and spending is restricted.

另一方面，借呗从蚂蚁金服的角度来看风险要大得多。

Jiebei, on the other hand, is much riskier from ANT's perspective anyway.

因为它本质上就是一种消费贷款。

That's because it's basically a consumer loan.

我是说，它的名字就是这个意思，对吧？

I mean, that's its name, right?

只管借！

Just borrow!

只有芝麻信用分600分以上的人才能用，我连资格都没有。

It's only available for those with Sesame credit scores above 600, so I don't even qualify for it.

但用借呗能借到不少钱，额度超过4万美元，日利率根据信用评分在0.02%到0.05%之间，年化大概10%到20%左右。

But you can borrow quite a bit with GBA over $40,000 And it has a daily interest rate of 0.02 to 0.05% depending on your credit score, which is like somewhere around 10 to 20% annualized.

借呗（英文名Ant Cash Now）解决了中国消费者长期面临的一个问题——获得负担得起的短期贷款。

Jiebe, whose English name is Ant Cash Now, solves a problem that consumers in China have been having for a long time, which is just access to affordable short term loans.

而且和花呗不同，借呗不限定消费用途，这笔钱你可以随意支配。

And Jiebe, unlike Huabe, is not tied to consumption, so you could use the money towards whatever you want.

很神奇吧？

Amazing, right?

嗯，算是吧。

Well, yes, sort of.

要知道，使用借呗是有成本的。

You see, there is a cost to using Jiebe.

2008年，中国建立了央行征信中心（PBC CRC）这种集中式个人征信系统。

In 2008, China established a sort of centralized personal credit system called the PBC CRC.

猜猜怎么着？

And guess what?

所有借呗贷款都需通过这个官方系统进行信用核查，所有银行都接入该系统，因此每次查询都类似于美国的硬性信用检查，实际上会影响你在传统银行（如申请房贷时）获得贷款的能力。

All Jiabei loans go through a credit check through this official system, which all of the banks plug into, and so each inquiry is kind of like a hard credit check here in The US, which can actually impact your ability to get a loan at a traditional bank such as for a mortgage.

我不清楚其他国家对应的制度，但基本上，如果你在过去一两年内有多次这类硬性信用检查，就会被视为危险信号。

I don't know what's the equivalent for other countries but basically, if you have more than a few these hard credit checks in the last year or two, it's seen as a red flag.

所以请谨慎使用。

So use at your discretion.

考虑到中国信用体系还很年轻，用户对这套机制感到困惑也情有可原。

Given how young China's credit system is, I can't fault users for being confused about how this all works.

但网上确实流传着有人使用借呗后被银行拒贷的恐怖故事。

But there are horror stories of people being denied bank loans after using Jiebe on the interwebs.

这就是为什么当花呗宣布今年夏天也将接入全国征信系统时，人们开始恐慌并争论是否要停用该产品。

Which is why when Huabe said it would also start plugging into the nationwide credit system this summer, people started freaking out and were debating whether or not to abandon the product.

我觉得人们只是假设每次使用都会产生硬性信用查询，但我觉得实际情况应该不是这样。

I mean, I think people are just assuming it's going to be a hard credit inquiry every time they use it, which I can't imagine being the case.

但如果不会伤害用户，反而能在他们负责任地使用花呗时提供帮助，那他们可能会欢迎这个变化。

But if it's not and it's actually going to help them instead of hurt them when they use Huabe responsibly then they'll probably welcome it.

无论如何，这个趋势不会消失。

Either way, this isn't going away.

蚂蚁芝麻信用与其他七家征信公司（包括腾讯和平安旗下的机构）在2018年政府支持下共同组建了另一个信用体系。

Ant Sesame Credit, along with seven other credit companies, including ones from Tencent and Ping An, formed another credit system in 2018 with the blessing of the government.

所以我们称它为体系——尽管百行征信（Baihang Credit）严格来说是家公司，只是不以纯营利为目的运营。

So we're calling it a system even though Baihang Credit, Baihang Zhengxin is technically a company, just not one operating solely for the sake of profit.

还记得我们之前讨论过的那八张预牌照吗？其中一张就是芝麻信用获得的。

Remember those eight preliminary licenses we talked about earlier, one of which Sesame Credit received?

结果政府决定把你们全部合并成一家。

Well, the government decided that actually we re just going to combine all of you into one.

现在你们都是一家公司的部分所有者了。

You guys are now all partial owners of one company.

中国互联网金融协会持股36%，其余每家各占8%。

The National Internet Finance Association of China owns 36% and the rest of you own 8% each.

你现在可能翻着白眼想'这很中国！'

You might be rolling your eyes now thinking, That's so China!

但请听我们说完，这其实很有道理。

But actually hear us out it makes a lot of sense.

运营信用体系的机构不应同时经营其他金融业务，否则会丧失客观性和独立性。

Someone who operates a credit system shouldn't also be operating other financial businesses because then they lose objectivity and independence.

显然蚂蚁、腾讯等企业都有其他业务，这是第一点问题。

And obviously, Ant and Tencent and every other player do have other businesses so that's strike one.

第二点问题是征信机构不能让数据采集方独占数据而不共享。

Then strike two is that for credit agencies, you can't have whoever collects the data own that data and not share it.

而这正是互联网公司正在做的。

Again, that's exactly what the internet companies are doing.

因此目前解决方案是八家公司共同持股百行征信，但没有运营控制权。

So to solve this, for now, all eight of the companies own a stake in Baihang, although they have no operational control.

它们仍可进行自己的评分业务，但不能将其标榜为公民的最终信用评分。

And they can still do their own scoring or whatever, but they just can't pass it off as a citizen's definitive credit score.

就像你的芝麻分就是你的芝麻分。

Like your Sesame score is your Sesame score.

它不是你的信用评分。

It's not your credit score.

在政府找到更好的解决方案之前，情况就会是这样。

And until the government figures out a better solution, this is how it's going to be.

是的，中国政府经常这么做。

Yeah, the Chinese government does this a lot.

发布草案命令，发放初步许可证，然后改变主意。

Issue draft orders, give out preliminary licenses, and then change their mind.

好处是你可能不知道如何监管一个快速发展的行业，所以给自己留出改变策略的灵活性。

The pro is that you might not know how to regulate a fast growing industry, so you give yourself the flexibility of changing your tactics.

坏处是没人知道接下来会发生什么，在这种监管不确定的情况下运营可能会让人感到害怕。

The con is that no one knows what's coming down the line and it can be kind of scary to operate when you have regulatory uncertainty like this.

但好吧，你真正需要了解的是中国消费金融行业非常年轻。

But alright, all you really need to take away from all of this is that the Chinese consumer finance industry is very young.

非常年轻。

Really young.

年轻到可以说这个行业直到2009年原中国银保监会发布一些指引，并在2015年正式开始监管后才真正起步。

So young that you could argue the industry didn't even really get started until the CBIRC, that is the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, issued some guidelines in 2009 and started regulating it in earnest in 2015.

过去五年它增长迅速，到2019年已增长两倍达到约1.4万亿美元。

It's been growing rapidly in the past five years, tripling to $1,400,000,000,000 or so by 2019.

但这仍远小于美国的4万多亿美元规模，意味着尽管中国人口是美国的五倍，市场规模却只有美国的三分之一。

But that's still much smaller than The US, which sits at over $4,000,000,000,000 which means that China is only just one third the size of The US, despite having five times the population.

顺便提一下，蚂蚁集团的信用科技业务截至6月30日的余额超过3000亿美元，其中80%为消费债务，20%为中小企业债务。

Ant's Credit Tech business, by the way, has a balance of over $300,000,000,000 as of June 30, with 80% of it in consumer debt and 20% of it in SMB debt.

但这些数字其实并不算大。

But these numbers aren't even that big.

我是说，我们甚至还没告诉你过去十二个月通过支付宝平台完成的支付总额。

I mean, we haven't even told you how much in payments flowed through the Alipay platform in the last twelve months.

这个数字是17万亿美元，其中约1万亿美元来自中国境内。

That number is $17,000,000,000,000 and all about $100,000,000,000 or so of that is from inside China.

尽管这个市场很庞大，但增速已从2018年的23%放缓至2019年的17%。

Large as that market is, growth is slowing down from 23% in 2018 to just 17% in 2019.

而且利润率极其微薄。

And margins are razor thin.

事实上，我们简单计算就能得出结论：蚂蚁集团每笔交易只能获得约0.05%的收益。

In fact, we can basically do some simple math and arrive at the conclusion that Ant is only getting something like 0.05% of each transaction.

难怪从收入角度看，花呗和借呗这类信用科技产品现在已超过支付宝。

It's no wonder then that the credit tech products like Huabe and Diabe are now bigger than Alipay revenue wise.

要知道花呗年化利率约9%，而借呗可能达到其两倍。

Remember that Huabe is about 9% annualized and Diabe can be as much as double that.

考虑到整个行业还有巨大的增长空间，难怪多头对前景极度兴奋。

With how much room there is left to grow for this whole sector, no wonder the Bulls are ultra excited about the prospects.

特别是蚂蚁集团在此过程中几乎不承担实际承销或风险。

And especially since Ant is doing barely any of the actual underwriting or risk assumption here.

根据其招股书，目前平台上98%的信贷余额由约100家合作金融机构承销或证券化。

According to its prospectus, 98% of the credit balance originating through the platform is now underwritten by one of their approximately 100 partner financial institutions or securitized.

中小企业信贷科技和投资科技的最大合作伙伴是网商银行，这家纯线上银行由蚂蚁集团持股30%。

The largest partner for all that SMB credit tech and investment tech is going through MyBank, an online only lender that Ant owns 30% of.

据网商银行介绍，其贷款审批采用'三一零'模式——三分钟申请、一秒钟放款、零人工干预，相比传统银行运营成本极低，对中国80%难以获得信贷的小微企业极具吸引力。

According to MyBank, it can approve loans in a three-one-zero format, which stands for three minutes to apply, one second to get a decision, and zero humans involved, which makes it super cheap to operate versus a traditional bank and a very attractive alternative for the 80% of the small businesses in China with horrible access to credit.

由此可见人们为何对信贷科技如此兴奋。

So, you can see why folks are so excited about credit tech in general.

该业务不仅贡献了40%的收入，过去三年增速更超过2.5%，即便在中国也堪称亮眼。

Besides being 40% of revenues, it's up more than 2.5% in the last three years, which is impressive, even for China.

如果不对这项业务感到兴奋，你就不可能对蚂蚁集团感到兴奋。

You can't be excited about Ant if you aren't also excited by this piece of the business.

现在我们来到蚂蚁集团业务解读的当下环节，还有最后几个关键信息需要同步。

So we're now at present day in our Ant Group walkthrough and there are just a few more pieces of the puzzle left to update you on.

首先是蚂蚁称为'理财科技'的业务板块，现已贡献15%营收——这部分不可能全靠余额宝吧？

The first being that piece that Ant calls investment tech that's now 15% of revenues That can't just all be from you about, right?

单靠货币基金就能支撑2000亿美元市值的六分之一？

Can't just the money market fund alone get you one sixth of the way to a $200,000,000,000 company?

当然不可能。

No, of course not.

该部门已从单一理财产品发展为名为'蚂蚁财富'的完整投资平台。

That division is now no longer just one investment product but an entire platform of investment products called Ant Fortune or My Caifu.

用户可在此选择3500只基金产品，涵盖170家合作资管机构。

Here, users can find 3,500 funds to invest in, representing 170 different partner asset managers.

平台宣称运用AI技术为消费者匹配最适合的投资产品。

And claims to use AI to pair consumers with the best investment products for them.

商业模式是什么？

The business model?

很简单：基于交易量的费用。

It's simple: fees based on transaction volume.

平台上的投资规模，更常见的说法是资产管理规模（AUM），至少到今年六月约为6000亿美元。

The volume of investment enabled on the platform, which is more typically referred to as AUM or assets under management, is about $600,000,000,000 through this June at least.

意思是，余额宝可能只有这个数字的四分之一，因为上次报告是1730亿美元。所以投资科技的大部分确实来自其他产品。

Mean, Yuubao is probably just a quarter of that since it was last reported at $173,000,000,000 So the bulk of investment tech must indeed be from other products.

其中一些仍归蚂蚁所有，比如投资黄金（固定收益）以及典型的共同基金或ETF投资。

Some of those are still owned by Ant, like for investing in gold, which is fixed income, and your typical mutual fund or ETF investments.

虽然涉及很多方面，但重要的是要注意它实际上只是一个市场平台，允许资产管理者销售他们的产品，而且收入增长速度远低于其兄弟业务信贷科技。

A lot of balls, but the important thing to note is that it really is just a marketplace, allowing asset managers to sell whatever it is that they have, and revenues are growing a lot slower than that of its brother, Credit Tech.

确实，过去三年基本增长了60%，与更成熟的支付宝增速相同。

Indeed, it's basically up 60% in the last three years, the same rate as the much more mature Alipay.

但这某种程度上是合理的，对吧？

But it kind of makes sense, right?

在家庭财务结构中，投资的优先级低于消费。

Investment ranks lower than consumption in a household's financial stack.

但为了发展繁荣的资本市场，中国政府认为可以鼓励更多投资。

But to have a thriving capital market, the Chinese government thinks more investment could be encouraged.

我们之前提到的银保监会（CBIRC）从今年初就开始推动更多长期资金进入股市。

CBIRC, the banking and insurance regulatory commission we referred to earlier, has been pushing for more long term investment into equities since the beginning of this year.

按照这个逻辑，哪怕只是引导中国家庭10万亿美元储蓄中的一小部分进入股市，对股市都会相当有利。

Even steering a portion of the Chinese household savings of $10,000,000,000,000 so goes the logic would be pretty good for the stock market.

我的意思是，这一直是政府的目标，所以并不算新鲜事，但或许这在一定程度上解释了为什么今年蚂蚁集团的投资科技业务增速比往年更快。

I mean, it's always been a goal of the government, so this isn't too new, but maybe that partially accounts for the faster growth we're seeing this year for Ant's investment tech business than we have seen in past years.

没错，如果对比今年上半年和2018年的数据，同比增长超过50%，而过去通常只有20%到30%的增长。

Yep, it's up more than 50% year on year when you look at results for the first half of this year versus 2018, whereas in the past, it's been more like a 20% to 30 growth.

我认为这是个积极信号，但也显示出政府政策对这个业务能产生多大影响。

I'd say that's a positive indicator, but it also shows us how much government policy can affect this business.

不过长远来看，中国金融市场承诺的开放仍将是强劲的顺风。

Although I still think in the long term, the promised liberalization of Chinese financial markets is a compelling tailwind.

只是在这个过程中可能会遇到很多障碍，仅此而已。

You just might encounter a lot of speed bumps on the way there, that's all.

这就引出了我们最后要讨论的业务线——保险科技，此前我们完全跳过了这部分。

Which brings us to our last business line, which is Insurtech, something we have skipped over entirely thus far.

主要原因呢？

The main reason?

这块业务规模还很小，仅占总收入的8%。

It's still pretty small, clocking in at just 8% of total revenues.

过去基数更小时增速更快，但今年仍保持着50%的增长。

Growth was faster in the past when it was an even smaller base, but it's still doing 50% this year.

不过相比蚂蚁的其他业务，这块确实非常非常小。

Compared to everything else Ant does though, this is truly very, very small.

招股书显示，目前平台上的保费和保险金规模甚至不到80亿美元。

The prospectus tells us that insurance premiums and contributions on the platform is not even $8,000,000,000 so far.

如果你是乐观主义者，你的反应大概是：这规模太小了，意味着未来有很大的增长空间。

If you're an optimist, your reaction is probably, that's tiny, which means that there is a lot of growth waiting to happen.

也许你是对的。

And maybe you're right.

大胆的说法是，中国终于成为全球第二大保险市场，保费收入超过6000亿美元。

The bold case is that China is finally the second largest insurance market in the world with over $600,000,000,000 in premiums collected.

但在占GDP的百分比方面，它仍落后于发达国家。

But it lags developed countries in percent penetration of GDP.

嘿，别看着我。

Hey, don't look at me.

我不是保险专家。

I'm not an insurance expert.

我只是引用德勤发布的行业报告。

I'm just quoting you what Deloitte published on the sector.

根据他们的数据，大多数发达国家的保险深度约为GDP的10%（或至少像美国这样达到6.5%），而中国仍仅有4.4%。

And according to them, most developed countries are about 10% of GDP in insurance (or at least 6.5% like here in The US), whereas China is still at a measly 4.4%.

另一种角度看，美国人均持有4.2份保单，而中国只有0.6份。

And another way of looking at it, well The US has 4.2 insurance policies per capita and China has 0.6.

这几乎是10倍的差距。

That's almost a difference of 10 times.

部分原因是这个行业还很新，确实，而且过去可用的产品不多。

Part of it is because the industry is new, yes, and there weren't a ton of products available.

但部分原因在于，消费者需要时间来了解该买什么以及为什么购买。

But part of it is because, well, you know, it takes time for consumers to be educated on what to buy and why to buy as well.

所以就像所有反直觉的事物一样，我认为保险相当反直觉。

So like all unintuitive things, I would say insurance is pretty unintuitive.

这需要一些时间。

It's going to take some time.

嗯，如果不是因为新冠疫情，可能需要更长时间，但现在这一趋势很可能加速了。

Well, it would probably have taken more time if it weren't for COVID-nineteen, but that trend is likely accelerated.

多少？

How much?

我们目前还不清楚。

We have no idea yet.

但结合政府为鼓励外资进入这一领域而采取的各种开放措施，这一市场可能会比预期更快地壮大起来。

But coupled with the fact that there are various opening up measures by the government to encourage foreign entrants into this space, this could get big sooner rather than later.

没错，今年早些时候取消了外资保险公司的持股上限，其他政策如允许直接向消费者销售产品，都让人更有理由相信市场自由化是动真格的。

Yep, ownership caps for foreign insurance companies were removed earlier this year, and other policies such as making it possible for you to sell your product directly to consumers are more reasons to believe market liberalization is for real.

而如果你是蚂蚁集团，这只会是好事。

And if you're Ant, this can only mean good things.

保险科技业务最棒的地方在于，蚂蚁集团收取的收入是交易保费金额的20%。

And what's great about the Insurtech business is that the revenue Ant collects is 20% of the premium value transacted.

是的，在过去12个月里，它从一个交易额达520亿元人民币的市场中获得了100亿元人民币的收入。

Yeah, it received RMB10 billion in revenues from a marketplace that saw RMB52 billion in transactions in the last twelve months.

你看，20%。

There you go, 20%.

嗯，对也不对。

Well, yes and no.

这里有个小问题，我觉得值得一提，因为它太奇怪了，尽管我不认为影响有那么大。

There is a little wrinkle in here, which I think is worth mentioning just because it's so weird, even though I don't think that impact is necessarily that big.

事实就是蚂蚁集团旗下产品相互宝被归类为保险科技业务。

And that is the fact that one of ANT's own products, Xianghubao, is categorized as an Insurtech business.

我不知道它是否有英文名称，但其含义是互惠或互助。

I don't know that it has an English name, but means reciprocal or mutual.

名称中仍保留'宝'字，但保险保障的'保'字发音相同。

Here is still the word for treasure, but the word for insurance protection is the same sound.

因此该产品在新闻稿中被称为互助平台。

So the product in press releases is referred to as a mutual aid platform.

它的运作方式很简单。

The way it works is simple.

你和他人每月向一个资金池缴纳费用。

You pay a monthly fee into a giant pool of money along with other people.

若罹患100种预先约定的重大疾病（多为癌症），可向蚂蚁集团提交索赔申请，获批后最高可获得4.3万美元的一次性赔付。

And if you get one of 100 pre agreed critical illnesses, mostly cancers, you can submit a claim to ANT, and if approved, you get paid a one time payment of up to $43,000

所以这不是保险产品，但能对你可能已有的其他保险形成补充。

So this isn't an insurance product, but kind of complements whatever other insurance you might already have.

或者根据我们之前讨论的统计数据，更可能是大多数人根本没有的保险。

Or, if we think about the stats we talked about earlier, most likely don't have.

事实上，购买相互宝的用户月收入大多在1000美元以下，其中三分之一来自中国农村地区。

And indeed, most of the folks buying Xianghubao make $1,000 or less a month and a third of them come from rural China.

参与者需未满59岁且身体健康，但除此之外可以说它比市面上许多保险产品门槛更低。

You do have to be under 59 years old to participate and be in good health, but other than that, there is a good case to be made that it's more accessible than lots of other insurance products out there.

确实如此！

It totally is!

2018年10月刚推出时，每月参与费用不到人民币1元。

When it first started in October 2018, it cost less than RMB per month to participate.

但现在用户数达到1亿后，月费涨至3元人民币（约合50美分）。

But now that it's at 100,000,000 users, the monthly fee is RMB 3 or about 50¢.

相比常规保费确实非常低廉，但要注意其保障范围有限，且存在拒赔案例和诱导注册等争议，给平台带来不少负面评价。

It s still very very low compared to normal insurance premiums, but remember that it s also got very limited coverage and there s been horror stories of aunts denying payouts, as well as using all sorts of growth hacking tactics to get folks to unwittingly sign up, all of which have brought controversy to the platform.

我宁愿相信其初衷是好的，但不确定这与'先知'理念是否兼容。

I would like to believe that this had the best intentions at heart, but again, I'm not sure that's compatible with Prophet.

仅以相互宝为例，按3元月费和1亿用户估算，至少占蚂蚁保险科技7%交易量，且因费用持续上涨，蚂蚁不得不宣布年费上限27美元。

Either way, the run rate for Xianghubao alone, if we're just using RMB3 a month and 100,000,000 as rough estimates, accounts for at least 7% of Ant's Insurtech transaction volume and possibly more since the monthly payments have been increasing so much that Ant had to come out and say it was going to guarantee a cap of $27 a year this year.

主要争议在于这些指标不够透明，公众只能采信公司说法，尽管存在产品归类与官方声明自相矛盾的情况。

I think the main complaint people have is just how opaque some of these metrics are and how you kind of have to take the company at its word, even though there are inconsistencies like this one, where a product is categorized as Insurtech and the company's own press releases make it clear it's not insurance.

但我也可以反问：真的需要了解这么多细节吗？

Although I could just as easily take the opposite position and ask, Do you really need all this detail?

除了支付宝（支）和余额宝（余），其他业务对蚂蚁而言都是可以忽略的零头。

In the grand scheme of things, most of these balls aside from Zhi Fu ball which is Alipay and maybe Yue ball they're just rounding errors for Ant.