谁真正塑造了人工智能的未来？

嘿。

Hey.

我是NPR《TED电台》节目的主持人马努莎·扎莫罗迪。

It's Manusha Zamorodi here, host of NPR's Ted Radio Hour.

你能相信2025年就要结束了吗？

Can you believe that 2025 is almost over?

曾经有一段时间，感觉这一年永远不会过去。

There were times when it felt like this year would never end.

对吧？

Right?

2025年对NPR和地方电台来说是极其艰难的一年。

2025 was a seriously tough year for NPR and local stations.

尽管公共媒体的联邦资金被削减，尽管自由新闻受到攻击，我们依然在这里。

Despite the loss of federal funding for public media, despite attacks on the free press, we're still here.

NPR不会回避行使第一修正案所保障的至关重要的编辑独立权。

NPR won't shy away from exercising its critical right to editorial independence guaranteed by the First Amendment.

在您的支持下，NPR将继续为您提供无畏无偏的新闻。

And with your support, NPR will keep bringing you the news without fear or favor.

在《TED播客》中，这包括为您带来科学、技术、人类行为、神经科学和自然等主题，帮助您在快速变化的世界中找到方向和意义。

Here at Ted Radio Hour, that includes bringing you science, technology, human behavior, neuroscience, and nature, topics that help you navigate and find meaning in a world that is changing so fast.

如果您已经是NPR Plus的支持者，非常感谢您。

If you are already an NPR Plus supporter, thank you so much.

我们深表感激。

We are so grateful.

如果您还不是，请在年底前立即前往+.npr.org加入公共广播支持者的行列。

If not, please join the community of public radio supporters right now before the end of the year at +.npr.org.

注册意味着您直接支持公共媒体，同时还能享受诸多福利，例如收听NPR一些播客的独家附加集。

Signing up means you are directly supporting public media, and you also get a bunch of perks like bonus episodes from some of NPR's podcasts.

以一个美好的结尾迎接这一年。

End your year on a high note.

投资于一项对您重要的公共服务。

Invest in a public service that matters to you.

请今天访问 +.npr.org，谢谢。

Please visit +.npr.org today, and thank you.

这是TED演讲汇编。

This is the TED Radio Hour.

每周带来突破性的TED演讲。

Each week, groundbreaking TED Talks.

我们现在的工作是大胆梦想。

Our job now is to dream big.

在TED大会上发表。

Delivered at TED conferences.

为了实现我们想要的未来。

To bring about the future we want to see.

遍及全球。

Around the world.

为了理解我们是谁。

To understand who we are.

从这些演讲中，我们为您带来令人惊喜的演讲者和观点。

From those talks, we bring you speakers and ideas that will surprise you.

你根本不知道会发现什么。

You just don't know what you're gonna find.

挑战你。

Challenge you.

我们真的必须问自己，为什么这值得注意？

We truly have to ask ourselves, like, why is it noteworthy?

甚至改变你。

And even change you.

我真的感觉自己变成了另一个人。

I literally feel like I'm a different person.

是的。

Yes.

你也有这种感觉吗？

Do you feel that way?

值得传播的想法。

Ideas worth spreading.

来自TED和NPR。

From Ted and NPR.

我是马努什·扎莫罗迪。

I'm Manoush Zamorodi.

在2025年，无论是工作、家庭还是线上，许多对话最终都转向了讨论人工智能。

In 2025, it felt like so many conversations at work, at home, online eventually turned to talking about AI.

我知道。

I know.

ChatGPT正在改变我们的生活和工作方式。

Chat, GPT is transforming the way we live and we work.

关于人工智能是否应该进入课堂，目前正引发越来越多的争论。

There's a growing debate about whether AI should have a place in the classroom.

人工智能是重塑美国政治的关键。

AI is the key to reshaping American politics.

而我们所有人仍然存在的问题是：这是否是由炒作和投机投资吹大的泡沫？

And the questions that we all still have, is this a bubble inflated by hype and speculative investments?

OpenAI的估值达到5000亿美元，英伟达股价再创新高。

OpenAI has a valuation of $500,000,000,000 NVIDIA shares hitting another record high.

我们是否正身处一场真正社会变革的最初几秒钟？

We living through the opening seconds of a true transformation of our society?

我们是否正朝着具备人类水平智能的AI迈进，它将改变我们的工作、生活和学习方式？

Are we heading towards AI with human level intelligence that could change how we work, live, and learn?

我认为这两种说法都有一定的道理。

I think there's there's a a little bit of truth to both.

这是阿尔文·王·格拉林。

This is Alvin Wang Gralin.

我从事人工智能、沉浸式技术、网络安全和半导体领域的研究与解决方案开发已有三十五年。

I've been studying and building solutions in AI and immersive tech, cybersecurity, semiconductors for thirty five years.

阿尔文是一位学者、企业家和工程师。

Alvin is a scholar, entrepreneur, and engineer.

他的著作《我们的下一个现实》探讨了他所说的即将来临的技术革命所带来的积极与消极潜在影响。

His book, Our Next Reality, examines the good and bad potential outcomes of what he says will eventually be a technological revolution.

嗯。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我们确实正处在一个非常重要的十字路口。

Well, I mean, we're we're definitely at a very important fork in the road.

你知道，过去十年让人工智能成为了一项了不起的技术，它即将真正成熟并进入下一阶段。

You know, the last ten years has made AI an amazing technology, and it's about to really mature and get to the next phase.

和许多当前的专家一样，阿尔文表示，我们无法在不讨论该领域两大巨头——美国和中国——及其目标与价值观差异的情况下，谈论人工智能的未来走向。

And like many experts right now, Alvin says we can't talk about where AI is going without talking about the two big players in the field, The US and China, and how their goals and values differ.

因为短期内，我们可能看不到政治对科技产生影响。

Because in the short term, we may not see politics affect our tech.

从技术角度来看，它需要几年时间才能真正成熟，然后渗透到我们的生活和经济中。

In the sense of the technology is gonna take a few years for it to to really mature and to then filter into our lives and economy.

但在未来几年，全球事务对于实现我们所期望的AI世界至关重要。

But over the next few years, global affairs will be crucial to getting the world we want with AI.

因为我们选择的方向以及所制定的政策，将影响我们文明未来几十年，甚至几个世纪的发展轨迹。

Because the direction that we take it and the the policies we put behind it is going to affect the trajectory trajectory of of our our civilization for the next decades, if not centuries.

所以今天在节目中，我们来理清这个科技时刻的意义。

So today on the show, making sense of this moment in tech.

人工智能可能走向的各种方向，通用人工智能（即与我们一样聪明的AI）的愿景如何塑造政治战略，以及中美之间的AI军备竞赛究竟是为了全球主导权，还是仅仅由美国科技企业家推动的一种叙事。

The various directions that AI might go, how visions of artificial general intelligence, AI that's as smart as us, are shaping political strategies, and whether the AI arms race between China and The US is about global dominance or more just a narrative being pushed by American tech entrepreneurs.

我们将听到一位报道过北京和硅谷科技界的记者，以及OpenAI的萨姆·阿尔特曼与泰德的克里斯·安德森的对话。

We'll hear from a reporter who's covered the tech world of both Beijing and Silicon Valley and from OpenAI's Sam Altman in conversation with Ted's Chris Anderson.

但首先，我们回到阿尔文·王·格拉林，他对于人工智能有着独特的视角。

But first, we return to Alvin Wang Gralin, who has an unusual perspective on AI.

是的。

Yeah.

我曾在中、美、台湾工作过，这段背景让我拥有与你通常听到的略有不同的视角。

My background having worked in in China, in The US, in Taiwan really gives a a perspective that might be a little bit different than, what you normally hear.

这种视角源于他的家族历史。

That perspective has roots in his family history.

阿尔文出生于文化大革命时期的中国，但他的祖母是美国人，是一名记者。

Alvin was born in China during the Cultural Revolution, but his grandmother was American, a journalist.

我祖母曾在中日战争期间为《纽约论坛报》工作，1937年前往中国报道局势，并在1941年日本偷袭珍珠港后被迫逃离中国，她把我的母亲留在了中国。

My grandmother was a reporter for the New York Tribune back during the Sino Japanese war, and she went to China in 1937 to report on what was happening and had to escape China in 1941 when the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor, and she left my mom in China.

这就是我如何来到这个世界的原因。

And that's kind of how I came to be.

当阿尔文九岁时，全家搬到了美国。

When Alvin was nine, the family moved to The US.

几年后，他们获得了美国公民身份。

They became naturalized a few years later.

所以，我们确实是引以为豪的美国人。

So, we are we are definitely, proud Americans.

事实上，我哥哥是第一位在美国核潜艇上工作的华裔美国人。

And in fact, my brother was the first Chinese American to work on a US nuclear submarine.

与此同时，阿尔文后来进入了麻省理工学院。

Meanwhile, Alvin went on to MIT.

他获得了计算机科学硕士学位，另一个是工商管理硕士，最终成为当今人工智能技术发展的先驱。

He got one master's degree in computer science, another in business, and ended up being a pioneer in developing the tech needed for AI today.

我在八十年代末和九十年代初帮助IBM和英特尔开发了早期的芯片。

I helped IBM and Intel develop their early chips back in the late eighties and early nineties.

事实上，我在1993年为英特尔参与了一个项目，这项技术后来成为了今天所有GPU的基础。

And in fact, I worked on a project for Intel back in 1993, and it was what became the technology that all GPUs are based on today.

第二年，他帮助英特尔在中国开设了第一个办事处。

The next year, he helped Intel open its first office in China.

那时候，实际上还没有消费级个人电脑市场，我几乎跟中国的总经理说：

And, you know, at that point, there was really no consumer PC market, and I I I essentially told my the GM of of China.

嘿。

I said, hey.

嘿。

Hey.

我认为我们应该尝试培育这个市场，这是我拟定的二十页计划，说明我们该如何做。

I I think we should try to build this market, and here's a 20 page plan of how we can do it.

他说：‘好吧，去把这件事办成。’

And he said, okay, well, go make that happen.

是Bring

Was Bring

把个人电脑带到中国。

PCs to China.

对。

Yeah.

那时候，个人电脑的价格是两三千美元，而中国的平均年收入大约是两三百美元。

And and at that time, you know, PCs were 2 or $3,000, and the average income in China was around 2 or $300 per year.

所以，要让这个市场存在，我们必须做出很多改变。

So for that market to exist, we had to make a lot of changes.

从那时起，阿尔文一直在硅谷和中国之间来回奔波。

Since then, Alvin has gone back and forth working between Silicon Valley and China.

但如今，他主要想谈论这些新技术的影响，以及他如何让各国领导人就这一全球性问题达成共识。

But mostly, today, he wants to talk about the impact of all this new tech and his ideas for getting heads of state aligned on what is a global situation.

因为阿尔文·格雷林认为，人工智能的未来有三种可能的路径。

Because the way Alvin Graylin sees it, there are three possible paths for the future of AI.

作为一个十足的科幻迷，阿尔文为这三种未来中的每一个都找到了一部电影作为参考。

And being a total sci fi nerd, Alvin has a movie reference for each one of these futures.

首先是由马特·达蒙主演的反乌托邦惊悚片《极乐空间》。

First up, the dystopian thriller Elysium starring Matt Damon.

故事设定在2154年，大多数人生活在人口过剩、疾病肆虐的地球，而超级富豪则居住在名为‘极乐空间’的豪华太空站上。

Where the year is 2154, most humans live on an overpopulated disease ridden planet Earth, while the uber wealthy live on a luxury space station called Elysium.

正在接近极乐空间的空域。

Are approaching Elysium airspace.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，最有可能的未来是，只有少数几位万亿富翁，而其他人则一无所有。

So so the first future that is the most likely is you essentially have a few trillionaires, and then you have the have nots.

社会将比今天更加极端地两极分化。

And it is going to be ultra stratified even more than we are today.

所以，Elysium 这种未来就是一种极端社会和经济不平等的状况，富裕的科技精英掌控一切，而其他人则被抛在身后？

So the Elysium version is this sort of future where there's extreme social and economic inequality, and the wealthy techies sort of rule everything, and the rest are kinda left behind?

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

差不多就是这样。

Pretty pretty much.

而且根本没有向上流动的机会。

And and really with no with no upward mobility.

对吧？

Right?

我认为，过去让美国伟大的是美国梦——只要你努力工作，好事就会发生。

I think in in the past, what made America great was the American dream that if you work hard, good things can happen.

而现在，我们的政府实际上已被寡头和行业领袖掌控，随着技术变得越来越智能和强大，这种情况只会变得更加极端。

And the fact that right now our our governments are essentially captured by by the oligarchs and by the the industry leaders, it is going to just make that even go more extreme as these technology becomes smarter and more capable.

第二条道路更糟。

The second path is even worse.

这就是阿尔文所说的《疯狂的麦克斯》未来。

It's what Alvin calls the Mad Max future.

让人想起1979年梅尔·吉布森主演的澳大利亚反乌托邦动作片。

Recalling the 1979 Australian dystopian action film with Mel Gibson.

在不远的未来，将不再有文明。

In the not too distant future, there will be no civilization.

将不再有英雄。

There will be no heroes.

只有疯狂的人。

There will only be mad men.

我们现在正经历一场美国和中国之间争夺通用人工智能的AI竞赛。

We right now have this AI race, technology race between US and China to to get to AGI.

而这场AI竞赛可能会演变成AI战争，然后不知怎的，升级为一场与台湾有关的热战。

And, you know, that AI race gets to become an AI war, and then somehow it it escalates into a kinetic war over maybe something related to Taiwan.

然后，你知道，它失控了，演变成一场核战争。

And then, you know, out of goes out of control and becomes a nuclear war.

因为这个未来的最终结局就是升级为核战争和末日之后，可能需要数百年才能重新获得我们今天的现代文明。

Because the ultimate destination of that future is is escalation into nuclear war and a post apocalypse, and then taking essentially centuries to maybe regain the the modernity that we have today.

第三条路是什么？

What is path number three?

它总得比那两条路好一些吧，求求了。

It's gotta be something better than those two, please.

是的。

Yes.

第三种未来实际上是我所说的《星际迷航》未来，它本质上模仿了《星际迷航》中发生的事情。

The the third future is actually what I call the Star Trek future, and it is something that essentially models after what happened with Star Trek.

在《星际迷航》的设定中，瓦肯人来到了地球。

So in in the Star Trek lore, essentially, the Vulcans came to Earth.

他们是一个理性且先进的种族，拥有先进的技术。

They were a rational advanced species with, you know, advanced technologies.

他们给了我们这些技术，让我们拥有一个富足的世界，然后我们开始探索星空，追求自我实现，而非贪婪和囤积。

And they gave us these technologies, allow us to have a world of abundance, and then we started to, you know, discover the stars and pursue, you know, a self actualization versus, you know, greed and hoarding.

我猜想我们的未来就在那里等着我们。

I suspect our future is there waiting for us.

我们成为了一个富足的世界，技术使我们得以实现这一切。

We became a world of of plenty, and and the technology enabled us.

因此，与其依赖外星物种的善意，我们现在实际上正在创造人工智能，这是一种理性的先进技术，能够为我们带来问题的解决方案。

And so instead of relying on the kindness of a alien species, we actually now are creating AI, which is a rational advanced technology that could bring us solutions to our problems.

所以这实际上是一种更解放的视角，因为我们能够控制这项技术何时到来。

So it's a it's a it's a actually, a more liberating perspective because we we get to control when this technology comes.

我们能够控制如何使用它。

We get to control how we use it.

那么，就目前而言，哪种情景最有可能发生呢？

And so where are we now when it comes to which of these scenarios is most likely?

不幸的是，目前我们并没有以正确的视角来看待它，即这应该是一种应该共享的公共产品。

Unfortunately, right now, we we're not necessarily looking at it with the right perspective that this should be a a a public good that should be shared.

它被视为一种统治工具，或用于自我获取利益或财富的手段。

It's seen as a a weapon of domination or or a tool for self, you know, gain or or wealth.

这些观点将把我们引向一条非常黑暗的道路。

And and those perspectives are going to lead us down a very dark path.

所以，在你看来，他们根本没在考虑公共利益。

So from your perspective, they're not at all thinking about the public good.

所有这些公司都在竞相争夺开发通用人工智能（AGI）的领先地位。

All these companies are just racing to beat each other to develop artificial general intelligence, AGI.

这些是具有人类水平智能的机器。

These are machines with human level intelligence.

我认为，这与其说是AI变得有自我意识并为自己行动，不如说是其他原因。

Well, I I think I think it's less less about the AI is becoming sentient and doing things for itself.

真正关键的是这场通往AI的竞争。

It's really more, this race to AI.

有一种叫做战略决定性优势的东西。

There's there's something called the strategic decisive advantage.

这是一个观点，即第一个获得AGI的人将利用这种力量进行自我改进，创造出所谓的ASI，即人工超级智能。

It it's an idea that whoever gets the AGI first will then use that power to self improve and create what's called ASI, so artificial super intelligence.

当你达到ASI时，你就拥有了主宰世界的力量。

And when you get to ASI, then you have the power to dominate the world.

对吧？

Right?

而不幸的是，现在华盛顿的许多人认为获胜就是率先实现AGI，然后利用它——在一些人看来，就是把中国打回石器时代。

And and and that's unfortunately what right now a lot of people in DC thinks is winning, is that they think it's, you know, using getting to AGI first, and then using it to, and in some people's words, send China back to the stone age.

当这种意图不仅仅是让自己进步，而是要拖慢他人的发展时，这非常可怕。

And and that's very scary when when that is the intent, not just to make yourself progress, but then to, you know, hold other people back.

当这些人这么说时，我问他们：那么，你以为他们会任由你这么做吗？

And what I asked these people when they said this, it's like, so do you think they would just let you do that?

他们回答：不，他们很可能会反击。

And they go, well, no, they'll probably fight back.

然后我说：那如果他们反击了，会发生什么？

And then, and I said, well, what happens when they fight back?

那么，我们可能会进一步反击。

Well, then we'll probably fight back some more.

然后我说，这会导向什么结果？

And then I say, what is that going to lead to?

他说，这意味着战争，但你知道，战争是不可避免的。

And he says, well, it means war, but know, war is inevitable.

当我听到这些来自美国决策层极具影响力的人所说的话时，我觉得这有点无知，而且非常可怕。

And when I hear things like this from people who are very influential in the decision making process in America, it feels a little bit ignorant, and it feels very scary.

最近，我参加了另一次对话，一些资深人士说，我们不能让中国治愈癌症，因为那样就意味着我们输了。

And, you know, I was in another conversation recently where there was senior people that said, we can't let, you know, China cure cancer because that means we've lost.

这种心态认为，只有我们才能治愈癌症，只有美国才能做到，而任何其他人对世界做出的善举都被视为坏事，我认为这是一种非常错误的世界观。

And, you know, to to have that type of a mentality that, you know, curing cancer is something that only we can do, only America can do, and that anybody else doing good things for the world is seen as a bad thing, that is a very, I think, misguided view of the world.

接下来，阿尔文和其他科学家正在制定的计划，将引导我们避开这些黑暗路径，以及他为何认为中美之间的AI军备竞赛是一个巨大的干扰。

In a minute, the plan that Alvin and other scientists are mapping out to veer us away from these dark paths and why he believes the AI arms race between China and The US is a huge distraction.

如果你听像彼得·蒂尔这样的人说，他认为，成功的唯一途径是建立垄断，然后控制一切。

If you listen to people like Peter Theo, he says, you know, the only way to be successful is to create a monopoly and then to control everything.

但现实是我们需要改变思维，承认世界并非零和博弈，实际上我们可以共同获胜。

But the the the reality is that we need to change our mindset and to agree that the world is not zero sum and that actually we can all win together.

今天在节目中，谁真正塑造了人工智能的未来？

On the show today, who's really shaping the future of AI?

我是马努莎·佐莫罗迪，您正在收听来自NPR的TED电台节目。

I'm Manousha Zomorodi, and you're listening to the TED Radio Hour from NPR.

请继续关注。

Stay with us.

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It's a show for the self help skeptic.

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这是来自NPR的TED播客。

It's the TED Radio Hour from NPR.

我是马努莎·扎莫罗迪。

I'm Manoush Zamorodi.

今天在节目中，我们探讨谁真正塑造了人工智能的未来。

Today on the show, we're asking who is really shaping the future of AI.

我们刚刚与学者、工程师和企业家阿尔文·格雷林进行了对话。

We were just talking to scholar, engineer, and entrepreneur Alvin Graylin.

阿尔文是一位拥有中国背景的美国技术专家。

Alvin is an American technologist with roots in China.

在过去三十五年里，他一直在两地工作。

And for the last thirty five years, he has been working in both places.

他认为，美国人工智能公司声称需要更多数据中心、更多芯片和更多资金来超越中国，这是一种便利的策略。

And he believes it's a convenient strategy for American AI companies to say they need more data centers, more chips, and more money to beat China.

许多公司都在重复这种说法，因为它有效。

A lot of companies are using that same refrain because it it works.

对吧？

Right?

这是因为，几十年来，军工复合体一直使用同样的说辞，通过在政府内部制造恐惧，从而获得更宽松的监管、更多的政府支持、更多合同以及政界更多的支持。

It because it's it's what the industrial the the military industrial complex have been using for nearly a century in terms of of creating fear within the government and then helping then get, you know, more lenient regulations, more government support, more contracts, and more support from the politicians.

而且，这被包装成一场国家间的竞争，但事实上，我认为大多数人心里都清楚，目前真正的竞争是在企业之间展开的。

And, you know, it's it's framed as a as a national competition when the the reality is, I think, most of them realize that it is a a competition right now between companies.

而所有这些公司都在思考：我如何为自己筑起护城河？我如何率先取得优势？

And and all of them are trying to figure out how can I create a moat for myself, how can I create an advantage where where I get there first?

我想成为那个被公认为发明了通用人工智能的人。

I wanna be the guy who's known for who invented AGI.

我想获得与此相关的名声、荣耀和经济回报。

And and I want the the the fame and the glory and the and the the the monetary rewards associated with this.

在多次采访中，你都听过像萨姆·阿尔特曼这样的人说：‘决定这项技术如何分配，是我的责任。’

And in multiple interviews, you've heard people like Sam Ahman say, hey, this is my responsibility to to decide how this is gonna be, you know, distributed.

听到他这样说，我感到困惑：谁赋予了他权利，让他成为决定这一切的人？

And to to hear him say things like that, I I feel, who gave him that right to be the person who decides this?

嗯，我认为论点是这属于国家安全问题，一开始要与中国在一定程度上合作，但始终要保持领先。

Well, I guess the argument is that it's a national security issue that it starts by working with China to a certain extent, but always staying ahead.

美国模式是这样的，如果你看看今年年中白宫发布的《美国人工智能行动计划》，里面说我们要通过竞争赢得最先进的人工智能，并且表示要不择手段地建设最大的数据中心，并用任何可能的方式为它们供电。

The the The US model, and and if you look at the America's AI action plan, which is what came out of the White House kinda middle of this year, It said we are going to race our way to to the most advanced AI, and it's saying that, you know, by making by doing whatever we can to build the the the the biggest data centers and, you know, powering them with whatever means possible.

然后我们将把这种人工智能推广给我们的盟友，而所有愿意成为我们朋友的国家都必须使用我们的技术栈、我们的芯片和我们的模型。

And then we are going to take that AI and spread it to our allies, and and nobody's you know, anybody who is going to be our friends has to use our stack, our chips, and our our models.

而这就是我们获胜的方式——通过制造依赖，让全世界都依赖我们。

And and that's how we win by creating a dependency where, you know, everybody in the world depends on us.

对吧？

Right?

这种对‘胜利’含义和如何获胜的看法是非常片面的。

And that's it's a very one-sided perspective in terms of what winning means and and how to win.

但如果你看看中国如何看待人工智能领域，他们的方法非常不同。

But if you look at how China is looking at the the AI space, they're they they have a very different approach.

哦，有意思。

Oh, interesting.

说来听听。

Tell me.

实际上有一个叫做‘AI+’计划的东西。

There's actually something called the AI plus plan.

AI+计划是一个十大计划，旨在探讨如何将人工智能应用于医疗领域？

And the AI plus plan is a a 10 plan to say, hey, how can we get AI into medicine?

如何将人工智能应用于制造业？

How can we get AI into manufacturing?

教育呢？

Education?

我们如何将人工智能应用于农业等领域？

How do we get AI into agriculture, etcetera, etcetera?

这本质上是在说，我们如何部署这项技术，以提高各个领域的效率？

It's essentially saying, how do we deploy this technology so that we can make each of them more efficient?

并让我们的民众和经济从中受益，真正致力于将技术的效益惠及更广泛的群体。

And and and seeing the benefits into our population and our economy, where it's really looking for for spreading the the the the benefits of the technology to the the larger community.

但我感觉我们听到的故事是：美国必须在人工智能领域获胜，因为这不仅仅是一场市场竞赛，更是两种世界理念之间的竞争——民主还是专制。

But but I I feel like the story that, you know, we're hearing is, oh, The US has to win at AI because this is not just a competition of a marketplace, but it's a competition between, you know, two ideas of what the world should be, either democratic or authoritarian.

是的。

Yeah.

从叙事角度来看，这听起来确实很棒。

From a a narrative perspective, it sounds really good.

美国、民主、自由，我们都希望你们能赢。

And, you know, America, democracy, liberty, you want us to win.

但如果你看看中国模式被传播的内容，就在美国发布行动计划三天后，中国发布了一项名为‘全球人工智能治理计划’的文件。

But if you look at what's, what's being, I guess, propagated in terms of what the Chinese model is, they three days after The US American action plan, the Chinese published something called the global AI governance plan.

他们的想法是：嘿，

And their idea was that, hey.

为什么我们不与世界其他地区合作，共同构建一个先进的人工智能系统，整合所有人的数据呢？

You know, why don't we work together with the rest of the world to build an AI advanced AI that then incorporates everybody's data?

这样我们就能拥有一个更强大的人工智能，并将其开放共享，而不是让某一个国家或公司独占这项技术作为成功工具。

And so we now have a a more capable AI that we share to the world, and we make it open source rather than making it tool for any one country or any one company to be successful.

所以如果你现在看一下，全球领先的五个开源模型都是由人工智能实验室开发的。

So if you look right now, that the leading five open source models in the world are all made by AI labs.

对吧？

Right?

如果你认为中国想要主导世界，你可能会觉得他们会说：我要建立大型数据中心，开发大型模型，然后自己独占，以便击败美国，击败民主。

You you would think if if China wants to dominate the world, they would be saying, hey, I wanna create these big data centers, and I'm gonna make the big model, and I'm going to keep it to myself so that I can beat America and and, you know, beat beat democracy.

但他们并没有这么说。

And and that's not what they're saying.

他们说的是：这是我发明的东西。

They're saying, here here's what I invented.

而你现在会发现，大学和初创公司正在使用中国的模型进行研究，因为它们是开源的。

And what you'll find right now is that universities and and startups are using Chinese models for their research because it's open source.

它们采用开放许可。

It's open license.

你不需要对它们进行任何署名。

You don't have to credit them for anything.

你可以将它用于商业用途。

You you can you can use it commercially.

你可以用它进行研究。

You can use it for research.

你可以基于它进行再训练。

You could retrain on it.

我的意思是，这听起来不像是一个意图做坏事的邪恶计划。

I mean, that to me doesn't sound like it's a evil plan to do bad things.

这听起来更像是美国也应该做的事情。

It sounds like what America probably should also be be doing as well.

我的意思是，我们必须承认，美国显然不是一个完美的国家，远非如此。

I mean, we have to acknowledge that, obviously, The United States is not a perfect nation, hardly.

但在中国，公民经常受到监控。

But in China, there is regular surveillance of citizens.

曾经有

There have

对某些少数群体采取了有争议的人权做法。

been questionable human rights approaches to certain minority groups.

他们严格控制信息、言论，有时甚至控制行为。

They tightly control information, speech, sometimes behavior.

所以，我们为什么会觉得中国会说：哦，我们要开源？

So so why should we think that China's like, oh, we're we're going open source.

什么？

What?

我们都应该从中受益。

We should all benefit from this.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我并不是说中国政府所做的一切都是完美的。

I mean, I I I I, you know, I am not saying that everything that the Chinese government does is perfect.

而且，他们确实有很多自己的缺点和问题，他们正在用自己的一套方法应对这些问题。

And, you know, they they have definitely a lot of their own faults and issues, and, you know, they're dealing with it with their own methods.

但在人工智能方面，我研究这个已经有三十五年了，从技术和创新的角度来看，他们的做法实际上很有道理。

But in terms of AI, and I've been studying this for, you know, thirty five years, their approach from a technical perspective and from a innovation perspective actually makes a lot of sense.

这些模型提供给本国公众的版本，确实存在某种程度的内部审查，尤其是在某些话题或事实方面。

And the versions of these models that are available to their local population, you know, definitely has some level of of internal censorship, you know, in terms of certain topics or certain facts.

但他们发布到可下载网站供他人下载的内容，都是不受限制的，只是原始模型。

But the things that they are posting onto the downloadable sites for other people to download, those are unconstrained, and they're just the the raw models.

然后你可以根据你自己的方法或观点对它们进行微调。

And you can then fine tune it to whatever, you know, methods or or perspectives that you have.

因此，从这个角度来看，即使你可能不认同他们政治上的所有做法，但他们在人工智能上的方式，从全球利益的角度来看，实际上是有道理的。

So from from that perspective, I feel like, you know, even though you may not agree with everything in their politics, the the way they're approaching AI is is actually making sense from a global good perspective.

但中国通过开源其人工智能模型，是否只是表面上采取了更崇高的技术立场，而实际上却是为了扩大对那些希望追赶人工智能的其他国家的影响力，并将其他研究整合到自己的模型中？

But by China going open source with its AI models, Does it just look like they're taking the higher road with their tech, but actually, this is a way of expanding their influence with all the other countries that want to catch up with AI, of integrating other research into their own models.

嗯，

Well,

我认为你所说的，可能正是政府在考虑如何提升全球软实力时的部分意图。

I I I think what you're saying actually is probably, part of the intention of the government in terms of saying, how can we increase our soft power around the world?

对吧？

Right?

就像美国在过去一百年里利用好莱坞向世界灌输美国的价值观和理想一样。

Just like America has used Hollywood over the last hundred years as a way of of of instilling American values and and and and kinda ideals to the world.

所以，考虑到这一切，我们如何才能走上更好的道路？

So with all this in mind, how do we get on a better path?

我们如何避免你之前描述的《极乐空间》和《疯狂的麦克斯》那样的未来，走向更有成果的前景？

How do we avoid the Elysium and Mad Max futures that you described were possible earlier and get to something more fruitful?

甚至不需要是乌托邦。

It doesn't even have to be utopian.

让我们先活下来吧。

Let let's survive.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你听像彼得·蒂尔这样的人说，他认为，成功的唯一方式就是建立垄断，然后控制一切。

If you listen to people like Peter Theo, he says, you know, the only way to be successful is to create a monopoly and then to control everything.

但现实是我们需要改变思维方式，承认世界并非零和博弈，实际上我们可以共同获胜。

But the the the reality is that we need to change our mindset and to agree that the world is not zero sum and that actually we can all win together.

我们能走得更远，使用更少的资源，并且决定人工智能带来的收益应当被共享，而不是被视为武器或追求私利的工具。

We get further, we use less resources, and we decide that, you know, the the benefits that come from AI should be shared, and is not seen as a weapon or as a tool for self interest.

是的。

Yeah.

不过，请给我们详细讲讲。

So take us through though.

帮我们想象一下这可能会是什么样子。

Help us envision what it could even look like.

首先，我们需要整合我们的资源。

So the the first part is that we essentially need to pull our resources.

与其建造数万亿美元的新数据中心，不如把我们已经投入的数万亿美元数据中心连接起来。

Instead of building trillions of dollars of new data centers, we can actually take the trillions of dollars we've already put into data centers and just say, hey, let's let's link them together.

让我们建立联合网络，共同训练大型模型，创造我所说的AI领域的‘欧洲核子研究中心’。

Let's create federated networks that we can then train large models together and create what I call a CERN for AI.

实际上，这并不是一个新想法。

And actually, it's not a new idea.

过去五六年来，人们一直在讨论像我们对粒子物理所做的那样，或者像我们对聚变反应堆、欧洲核子研究中心或国际空间站那样做。

It's been talked about for probably five, six years now of doing what we did for particle physics or what we, you know, did for fusion reactors, you know, with Ether or or space science with the International Space Station.

对吧？

Right?

让各国或全世界联合起来，共同投资于大型资本项目，然后将成果与全世界分享。

To have, you know, essentially groups of of countries or or the world come together and invest in a large capital and expenditure, but then to take whatever comes out of it to share with the world.

这有先例吗？

Is there a precedent for this?

你提到了空间站和欧洲核子研究中心，后者是欧洲核子研究组织。

For for like, you mentioned the space station and and CERN, which was the it's the European Organization for Nuclear Research.

这是一次全球科学家的联合，所有人都达成了共识。

This is, you know, a global coming together of scientists in a way that everyone agreed.

但你指的就是这种模式吗？

But is that what you're looking at?

是的。

Yeah.

如果你看看万维网，实际上万维网的概念源自于CERN。

If if you look at the World Wide Web, actually, the concept of World Wide Web came from CERN.

而且，我们也曾因另一场自然灾害而采取过类似行动，那就是臭氧层的破坏。

And, you know, we also did this from from another natural disaster that happened to us, which was the ozone layer degradation.

在八九十年代，我们通过《蒙特利尔议定书》团结起来，说：嘿。

And, you know, over the eighties and nineties, we essentially came together with the Montreal Protocol and said, hey.

让我们都决定停止生产氯氟烃（CFCs）。

Let let's all decide to stop doing the c f making CFCs.

现在，臭氧层已经开始恢复，变得对我们来说更加健康和正常。

And now the ozone actually layer has has started to to, you know, come back and and become much more healthy and normal for us.

对吧？

Right?

所以我们能够合作。

So so we we can work together.

当各国意识到这是为了共同利益时，就能够携手合作。

Countries can work together when we realize that it is for our collective good.

为了使人工智能成为可能，我们还需要创建一种我称之为全球人工智能数据池或数据云的东西。

And to to make to make discern for AI possible, we also need to create something I call the global AI data pool, right, or data cloud.

本质上，就是将每个人的语言、文化、科学和历史汇集到一个源头，以便训练人工智能全面理解世界，而不是只理解单一视角。

Essentially, taking everybody's language, their culture, their science, their history, and put it into one source so that we can train this AI to to understand the world wholly, not to understand one single perspective.

科学家们是否在幕后就如何实际实现这一点展开讨论？

Is there a conversation going on behind the scenes amongst scientists about how to actually do this?

因为这些公司的创造者都以最大化利润为目标，他们大概并不想参与其中。

Because the the the creators of these companies are all about maximizing profits, presumably, they don't wanna be a part of it.

实际上，确实存在这样的讨论，像约书亚·本吉奥、德米斯·哈萨比斯或杰弗里·辛顿这样的人——他们是人工智能的一些奠基者，见证了这项技术的发展，并理解这些技术的能力。

Well, so actually, there are there are these conversations, and and it's people like Joshua Bengio or Demis Hassabis or Jeffrey Hinton who are, you know, some of the the godfathers of AI who have seen this technology grow and have seen and understand the capabilities of of these technologies.

他们正在倡导为人工智能建立一个类似CERN的模式。

And they're advocating for a CERN for AI type type model.

但不幸的是，许多政界人士并未倾听。

But, unfortunately, a lot of the politicians aren't listening.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，我们需要超越对这项技术的政治化，将人工智能及其带来的益处视为公共利益。

I mean, we we need to get past this politicization of this technology, and we need to see AI and the benefits that it provides as a public good.

听起来像是理想化的乌托邦，但事实上，我们现在正处于实现这一目标的临界点。

I mean, it it sounds like idealistic utopia, but, you know, we are actually at a point where it's possible.

过去，我们生活在一个稀缺、囤积和争斗至关重要的世界。

Before, we lived in a world of scarcity, and hoarding and fighting made a difference.

但如果我们正处于迈向一个能够带来丰裕技术的终点线，我们就不再需要争斗了，我们需要认识到这一点，并让这一切发生。

But if we are at the one yard line of getting to a place where we can have a technology that brings us abundance, we don't need to fight anymore, and we need to realize that and let that happen.

这是作家兼企业家阿尔文·格拉林。

That was author and entrepreneur Alvin Gralin.

他的书名为《我们的下一个现实：人工智能驱动的元宇宙将如何重塑世界》。

His book is called Our Next Reality, How the AI Powered Metaverse Will Reshape the World.

你可以在 ted.com 上观看他与我的TED对话。

You can watch his conversation with me on the TED stage at ted.com.

所以王嘉林认为，美国和中国应该在人工智能方面比现在合作得更多。

So Alvin Wang Gralin thinks The US and China should be cooperating on AI a lot more than they are.

这种合作的可能性有多大？

What is the likelihood of that?

人工智能竞争真的只是美国的现象吗？

And is AI competition really just an American thing?

我决定跟进与阿文的对话，采访了美国国家公共电台的约翰·瑞奇。

I decided to follow-up on my conversation with Alvin by talking to NPR's John Ruich.

约翰，你曾在中国常驻多年。

John, you were based in China for years.

你曾报道过那里的政治和科技等多个领域。

You covered politics and tech there among many things.

现在你回到了美国，从硅谷报道政治和科技新闻。

And now you're back in The US covering politics and tech from Silicon Valley.

那么，请谈谈你对这场人工智能军备竞赛的看法。

So so give us your perspective on this AI arms race.

这是否正如阿尔文所言，主要是美国科技CEO们为了锁定技术、获得更多投资、规避监管而讲述的故事？

Is it mostly a story that American tech CEOs are telling to lock down their tech to get more investment, avoid regulation as Alvin explains it?

是的。

Yeah.

从我的角度来看，某种程度上是的，但。

From my perspective, like, yes, to a certain extent, but.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yes.

这就是资本主义。

That's capitalism.

企业间的竞争是真实的。

The the corporate competition is real.

绝对如此。

Absolutely.

但我认为，这种军备竞赛心态背后的原因，肯定不止是商业因素。

But there is definitely more to this arms race mentality, I think, than just business.

几个月前，我和一位风险投资人聊过，那真挺有意思的。

It's fun it I I was a few months ago, I had a conversation with a venture capitalist.

他告诉我，当时曾就人工智能的安全性展开过一场辩论和讨论，美国的一些公司甚至讨论过是否应该联合起来，暂时放缓一下大家朝着通用人工智能狂奔的速度，以便制定一些规则。

And, you know, he was telling me that there had been this debate and discussion around the safety of AI and that companies in The United States had potentially discussed banding together, maybe sort of hitting pause on sort of the breakneck speed at which everybody was racing towards the AGI if the if that's where they were headed to sort of set some rules.

但随后，DeepSeek R1发布了。

But then DeepSeek r one happened.

那是今年一月发布的一款中国人工智能模型。

That was the release in January of a Chinese AI model.

这简直就像一个‘斯普特尼克时刻’。

And it was kind of a Sputnik moment.

DeepSeek 做了一些人们原本认为中国做不到的事，因为中国受到高端芯片出口限制。

Like, Deepsea did things that people did not think China was capable of doing because of the restrictions on high end microchips going to China.

他们设法绕过了芯片禁运，推出了一款相当出色、几乎接近美国公司水平的人工智能模型。

They did things they kind of circumvented the embargo on chips to put forward an AI model, an AI product that was pretty darn good and pretty close to what American companies were doing.

所以讨论转向了国家安全。

So the discussion shifted to national security.

大家都说，好吧。

Everybody was like, okay.

中国是认真的，我们必须再次全力以赴。

China's for real, and we need to go we need to go at it, again.

那么请详细说说中国对人工智能的做法。

So tell us more about China's approach to AI.

因为我认为在美国，人工智能让很多人感到不安，原因多种多样，比如他们的工作、人工智能消耗的能源、以及它可能产生的错误。

Because I think in The US, AI is mostly making people kinda nervous for all sorts of reasons, their jobs, the amount of energy it uses, the slop it can produce.

但你了解到普通中国人对人工智能的感受是怎样的呢？

But but what have you learned about how regular people feel about AI there?

是的。

Yeah.

在中国，政府显然非常专注且具有战略眼光，正在认真思考人工智能。

So in China, the the government is obviously very focused and strategic, and it's thinking about AI.

所以我去年十月去了中国，做了一些关于人工智能在社会中应用的报道。

And I so I went on a trip to China in October and, did some reporting around AI in society, basically.

我们去的一个地方是北京的一所小学。

And one of the places we went was an elementary school in Beijing.

这所小学，事实上，从今年秋季学期开始，北京所有中小学都将人工智能教育以及关于AI如何创建和使用的知识融入了他们的计算机素养课程中。

And this elementary school, and in fact, at all k through 12 schools in Beijing starting this fall semester, they started to fold, education about AI and education on sort of how AI is created and how you can use it into the computer, literacy programs that they run.

于是我们去那里，采访了几名十岁的四年级学生，也和他们的父母以及老师聊了聊，了解这种人工智能教育是什么样的。

So we went and we talked to a couple of 10 year olds, fourth graders, talked to their parents, talked to their teacher about what, what this AI education was like.

正如你所想象的，内容并不深入，但孩子们正在有意识地、积极地接触人工智能，学习如何使用它。

And as you can imagine, like, it's not in-depth, but they are being consciously and proactively familiarized with artificial intelligence, with how to use it.

他们用它来画画、生成图像，例如。

They're using it to to do drawings, to do, images, for instance.

家长们对这个项目有着非常清醒的认识，我觉得这很有趣。

The parents were very clear eyed about the project, which I thought was interesting.

他们基本上全都全力支持，因为他们认为这是一种即将来临的技术。

They basically were all sort of all in on it because they see it as, you know, it is this technology that's coming down the pike.