邀请所有人参会是否阻碍了全球合作？ | 卡希尔·达哈尼

你知道自己想改变生活，这很容易，但真正去做却很难。

It's easy to know you wanna make a change in your life, but it is hard to actually do it.

《如何成为更好的人》是TED出品的播客，适合那些觉得自助建议太过艰巨或根本不适合你的人。

How to Be a Better Human from TED is a podcast for when self help feels too daunting or just not for you.

我是《如何成为更好的人》的主持人克里斯·达菲，相信我，我自己也还没完全搞明白。

I'm Chris Duffy, the host of How to Be a Better Human, and trust me, I do not have it all figured out.

但请和我一起，听我与专家们探讨一些切实可行的方法，帮助我们改善生活——无论是面对恐惧、设立界限、打扫房间，还是其他各种话题。

But join me as I talk to experts about actually attainable ways we can try to improve our lives, whether it's facing fears, setting boundaries, cleaning your house, or all sorts of other topics.

在你收听播客的任何平台，都可以找到《如何成为更好的人》。

Find how to be a better human wherever you get your podcasts.

你正在收听的是《TED每日演讲》，我们每天为你带来新思想，激发你的好奇心。

You're listening to TED Talks daily where we bring you new ideas to spark your curiosity every day.

我是你的主持人，伊莉斯·胡。

I'm your host, Elise Hu.

我们正面临一场信任危机，而这些危机针对的正是构建了我们现代世界的那些机构与体系。

We are facing a crisis of trust in the very institutions and systems that built our modern world.

在这场演讲中，国际事务与发展专家卡希尔·达纳尼探讨了为何过去让每个国家都坐到谈判桌前的老方法已不再有效，并呼吁我们重新思考全球合作的形态及其为何至关重要——我们必须重建它。

In this talk, international affairs and development expert, Kahir Danani, explores why the old way of getting every nation into the negotiation room no longer works and asks us to reconsider what global cooperation looks like and why it matters that we rebuild it.

下次你出国旅行时，请帮我个忙。

The next time you take an international trip, do me a favor.

看看你的护照。

Take a look at your passport.

在封面上，有你国家的国徽。

On the cover, there's your country's coat of arms.

然后你打开它，里面是你的照片。

And then you open it, and there's your photograph.

你拍过的最好的一张照片。

The best one you've ever taken.

对吧？

Right?

在那一页的底部，有两行字母和数字。

On that page, there's two lines at the bottom, letters and numbers.

这被称为机器可读区。

That's called the machine readable zone.

这两行文字是奇迹，是国际合作的成果。

Those two lines are magic, the product of international cooperation.

因为如果没有它们，你就无法登上那架飞机。

Because without them, you wouldn't be able to get on that plane.

你无法通过移民检查。

You wouldn't be able to cross immigration.

你无法环游世界，见到你的家人。

You wouldn't be able to travel the world, see your family.

我觉得有趣的是，这两行文字诞生于1980年，当时国际民用航空组织开始标准化护照。

Now what I find fascinating is that those two lines came about in 1980 when the International Civil Aviation Organization set about standardizing passports.

最初，只有三个国家采用了这一标准。

At the beginning, only three countries adopted the standard.

如今，几乎每个国家都采用了这一标准。

Today, just about every single country has that standard.

这是国际合作的最佳体现。

This is international cooperation at its best.

而且这还没有结束。

And it doesn't stop there.

你知道吗？一百六十年前，二十个国家齐聚一堂，奠定了全球电信网络的基础。

Did you know that a hundred and sixty years ago, 20 countries came together to lay the foundations of our global telecommunications networks?

他们创立了一个名为国际电报联盟（ITU）的组织。

They founded something called the International Telegraph Union or the ITU.

它至今仍然活跃，尽管已不再局限于电报。

It's still active today, although it's moved on from the telegraph.

即使在冲突时期，全球合作仍在继续。

Even in times of conflict, global cooperation continues.

在乌克兰战争期间，来自美国、中国、欧洲、亚洲、非洲、拉丁美洲和俄罗斯的代表仍坐在ITU的同一间房间里，继续就互联网协议或全球数字治理等议题进行谈判。

In the midst of the war in The Ukraine, representatives from The United States, China, Europe, Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Russia were sitting in the same room at the ITU continuing to negotiate things like Internet protocols or global digital governance.

你知道时区的存在源于一项多边协议吗？

Did you know that time zones exist because of a multilateral agreement?

或者绿灯代表通行也是因为一项多边协议？

Or that green means go because of a multilateral agreement?

当各国合作时，我们的生活会变得更好。

Our lives are made better when countries collaborate.

这是现代世界的基础设施，我们离不开它。

It is the infrastructure of the modern world, and we can't live without it.

但今天，我们正面临对国际体系的信任危机。

But today, we're facing a crisis of trust, trust in the international system.

我每天都能看到这一点，因为我与国际组织及其领导人合作，努力提升它们的效率。

I see this every day because I work with international organizations and their leaders trying to make them more effective.

我首先要承认，把多边主义和效率放在同一句话里听起来有点复杂。

And I'll be the first to admit that talking about multilateralism and effectiveness in the same sentence sounds a bit complicated.

许多人一想到这些组织，就会想到繁文缛节，或者无尽的官僚主义和政治作秀。

Many think about these organizations and they see a mesh of red tape, or they see endless bureaucracy or political posturing.

他们不禁怀疑：这些组织真的有实际影响吗？

They wonder, is there any tangible impact?

这正让人们失去对国际组织的信心。

It's making people lose faith in international organizations.

我理解。

I get it.

在我们这个不断变化的世界里，那些基于八十年前二战结束时地缘政治现实建立的机构难以跟上步伐，这有什么可惊讶的呢？

In our constantly changing world, is it any surprise that the institutions crafted around the geopolitical realities of the end of the second world war eighty years ago that those organizations are struggling to keep up?

它让我们开始质疑：国际合作真的值得吗？

It's making us ask, is international cooperation even worth it?

我在这里就是要说服你，它绝对值得。

Well, I'm here to persuade you that it absolutely is.

我恳请你重新审视一下。

I implore you, take another look.

我要提前警告你，留在这个领域，再给多边主义一次机会，必然意味着一件事。

And I give you a fair warning that staying in the arena and giving multilateralism another go means one thing for sure.

我们不能再继续照常行事了。

We cannot continue with business as usual.

现在是时候重新思考、重新评估、重新调整我们在全球范围内的合作方式了。

It is time to rethink, to reevaluate, to recalibrate how we collaborate on a global scale.

在我看来，这始于重建信任。

And in my humble opinion, this starts with rebuilding trust.

怎么做？

How?

请允许我提出一个相当大胆的观点。

Allow me to offer something rather provocative.

我们必须停止坚持邀请所有人参加会议。

We must stop insisting on inviting everybody to the meeting.

我知道这听起来有点苛刻。

Sounds a bit hard, I know.

但请听我说完。

But hear me out.

想象一下，当你试图制作幻灯片、制定项目预算或撰写备忘录时，有200位最善意的同事一起参与其中。

Imagine trying to get your slide deck together or your project budget or your memo written with 200 of your most well meaning colleagues working with you on it.

听起来相当困难。

Sounds pretty difficult.

对吧？

Right?

这就是为什么从193个国家一开始就试图协商任何问题，并在此基础上达成全球共识，唯一确定的结果——如果真能有什么结果的话——就是最不具争议的方案。

Which is why trying to negotiate anything with a 193 countries at the outset and trying to achieve global consensus on that issue will deliver one thing for certain, if anything at all, and that is the least objectionable outcome.

但要重建信任并应对我们这个时代最艰巨的挑战，我们不能满足于最不具争议的方案。

But to rebuild trust and take on the most difficult challenges of our time, we cannot settle for the least objectionable outcome.

我们需要的是最具雄心、最大胆、最具变革性的成果。

We need the most ambitious, the bold, the transformative outcomes.

因此，让我们采取一条替代的、增强的前进路径，一条植根于外交艺术的路径，这种艺术已为我们服务了一个多世纪，但我们似乎已经遗失了它。

So let's take an alternative, an augmented path forward, one that is rooted in the art of diplomacy, one that has served us for over a century, but one which we seem to have lost.

让我们释放意愿联盟的力量，展示21世纪的多边主义与合作应有的样子。

Let's unleash coalitions of the willing to show what twenty first century multilateralism and cooperation can and should look like.

我将‘意愿联盟’定义为由志同道合、有时甚至并非完全志同道合的行动者组成的小型、动态群体。

I define coalitions of the willing as small, dynamic groups of like minded and sometimes not so like minded actors coming together.

它们可以由来自南方和北方、东方和西方的国家、民间社会组织、学术机构、宗教组织，以及——这一点很重要——企业组成。

They can be some combination of countries from the South and the North, the East and the West, civil society organizations, academic institutions, religious organizations, and, and this is important, businesses.

它们因共同的目标而聚集，解决一个超越自身规模的问题，一个需要真正协作与共同创造才能解决的问题，这些问题需要一个坚定的群体率先行动并大胆作为。

They come together with shared purpose, to solve a problem larger than themselves, a problem that requires genuine collaboration and co creation to solve, problems that require a committed group to act first and to act boldly.

联盟承担风险。

The coalition takes on the risk.

它把自己当作试验品。

It serves itself up as the guinea pig.

它验证了这一模式。

It proves the model.

它让其他人更容易加入，并推动雪球滚下山。

It makes it easy for others to join in, and it pushes the snowball down the mountain.

几十年来，我们一直这样开展外交工作。

This is how we've done diplomacy for decades.

只是我们已经忘记了。

We've just forgotten.

我喜欢这个发生在二十世纪五十年代的例子，当时银行开始发行信用卡。

I love this example from the nineteen fifties when banks started issuing credit cards.

但有一个问题。

There was one problem.

有些卡很小，有些卡很大，有些是纸制的，有些是塑料的。

Some cards were small, some cards were large, some were made of paper, some of plastic.

它们之间无法互通。

There was no interoperability.

于是其中几家机构走到了一起。

So a few of them came together.

美国运通、大莱俱乐部以及其他几家机构。

American Express, Diners Club, and a few others.

他们联合起来，制定了统一的信用卡标准。

They came together and they adopted a uniform standard for a credit card.

所以今天你钱包里的信用卡，都是标准化的。

So what you have in your wallet today is standard.

它正面印有您的姓名和号码，背面有一条金属条。

It has your name and a number on the front and a metallic strip on the back.

然后他们与各国合作，将这一标准纳入国际标准化组织（ISO）。

And then they worked with countries to enshrine this in the International Standards Organization.

所以今天，当您去餐厅刷卡，或去自动取款机取现时（如果人们还这么做），您会相信它能正常工作，但您并不会将这种便利归功于多边主义、ISO或自愿联盟。

So today, when you go to a restaurant and you tap your card, or you go to a an ATM machine and you take out some cash, if people still do that, You trust that it's gonna work, but you don't attribute that to multilateralism or to the ISO or to a coalition of the willing.

但这就是它的起源。

But that's how it started.

想象一下，如果我们今天必须重新谈判或从头开始协商标准信用卡的样子。

Imagine we had to renegotiate or start afresh negotiating what a standard credit card looks like today.

那会是什么样子？坚持邀请所有人参加会议？

What would that look like, insisting on inviting everybody to the meeting?

嗯，它会变成这样：这个想法会被提交给一个委员会。

Well, it would be and I the idea would be put to a committee.

委员会会进行无数次的咨询，与数百个参与者沟通，包括那些至关重要和那些不太相关的角色。

The committee would run consultations, endless consultations with hundreds of actors, those that are super relevant and those that are less relevant.

然后它会起草一项公约、决议或协议，并提交给193个国家进行谈判。

Then it would craft a convention or a resolution or a compact and put that forward for a 193 countries to negotiate.

将任命共同主席来主持这一进程。

There will be co facilitators appointed to run this process.

他们的目标是促成193个国家之间的全球共识。

Their objective would be to reach global consensus among 193 countries.

而最终的结果将是争议最小的方案，这也是为什么今天我们不得不从‘意愿联盟’开始，以雄心勃勃地推动未来的发展。

And the result, the least objectionable outcome, which is why today we need to start with coalitions of the willing to make things work ambitiously for the future.

如果看到联合国或其他多边组织邀请意愿联盟来应对我们最艰巨的挑战——如人工智能治理、移民、粮食安全——我会感到无比振奋。

I would be so energized to see the United Nations or other multilateral organizations invite coalitions of the willing to take on some of our most difficult challenges, AI governance, migration, food security.

虽然进展没有我们期望的那么快，但确实在发生，我对此充满希望。

It's not happening at the rate we want it to happen, but it is actually happening, and I have a lot of hope.

一个让我充满希望的例子是LEAF联盟，即‘通过加速森林融资降低排放’联盟。

One example that gives me a lot of hope is the LEAF coalition, the Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest Finance coalition.

它最初由一小部分捐赠国、一小部分拥有森林的国家、一小部分企业以及一小部分民间社会组织发起。

It started with a handful of countries that were donors, a handful of countries that had forests, a handful of corporations, and a handful of civil society organizations.

他们齐聚一堂，围坐在一张小桌子旁，试图找出应对森林砍伐的办法。

They all came together, and they sat at a table, a small table, and they tried to figure out what do we do about deforestation?

我们该如何保护生物多样性？

How do we protect biodiversity?

因此，他们没有等待200个国家就条约的最后一条款进行谈判。

And so they didn't wait for 200 countries to negotiate the last clause of a treaty.

他们采取了行动。

They acted.

他们投入了数十亿美元，创建了一个保护自然的新市场。

They put billions of dollars on the line, and they created a new market for protecting nature.

现在，所有人都争相加入这个联盟。

And now everyone is rushing in to join that coalition.

这就是二十一世纪的多边主义和国际合作应有的样子。

This is what twenty first century multilateralism and international cooperation can and should be.

因此，我们面临一个选择。

And so we have a choice.

我们是应该团结一致，走上这条新的前进道路，还是选择分开？

Should we stay together and take this new path forward, or should we walk away?

我希望我们能继续在一起。

I hope we stay together.

谢谢。

Thank you.

这是卡希尔·达纳尼在2025年于迪拜BCG举办的TED演讲中的发言。

That was Kahir Danani speaking at TED at BCG in Dubai in 2025.

如果你对TED的选题标准感兴趣，可以前往ted.com/curationguidelines了解更多。

If you're curious about TED's curation, find out more at ted.com/curationguidelines.

今天的节目就到这里。

And that's it for today.

《TED演讲每日》是TED音频合集的一部分。

TED Talks Daily is part of the TED audio collective.

本演讲由TED研究团队进行事实核查，并由我们的团队——玛莎·埃斯特瓦诺斯、奥利弗·弗里德曼、布莱恩·格林、露西·利特尔和坦西卡·苏恩马诺翁——制作与编辑。

This talk was fact checked by the TED research team and produced and edited by our team, Martha Estevanos, Oliver Friedman, Brian Greene, Lucy Little, and Tansika Sungmarnivong.

本集由克里斯托弗·法齐·博甘混音。

This episode was mixed by Christopher Faizy Bogan.

特别感谢艾玛·陶布纳和达尼埃拉·巴雷罗。

Additional support from Emma Taubner and Daniella Balarezo.

我是伊莉丝·胡。

I'm Elise Hu.

明天我会带着一个全新的想法回到你的信息流中。

I'll be back tomorrow with a fresh idea for your feed.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.