#727：大卫·泽尔用橙色药丸揭露深层政府

加入来自Blockstream、Chaincode、Brink等公司的比特币爱好者，参加这场比特币技术与金融交汇处不容错过的峰会。

Join Bitcoiners from Blockstream, Chaincode, Brink, and more at the can't miss summit at the intersection of Bitcoin tech and finance.

这场会议的信息密度极高，这就是为什么我将参加Block Space第三届年度比特币技术大会，时间是4月16日，地点在曼哈顿中城的《纽约时报》中心。

This conference has one of the best signal to noise ratios, and that's why I'll be joining Block Space's third annual Bitcoin tech conference on April 16 at the New York Times Center in Midtown Manhattan.

活动仅限200名参与者，而开放的席位已经售出了100多张。

There's only room for 200 attendees, and they've already sold more than a 100 tickets of their open spots.

所以你只有几周时间来安排前往纽约的行程。

So you've only got a few weeks to get your travel plans in order from New York.

购买门票后，你将获得比特币技术领域最优质的议程内容，涵盖BitVM到BitChat，还包括提供午餐以及pubkey派对的入场资格。

With the ticket, you get access to the best programming in Bitcoin tech from BitVM to BitChat, catered lunch, and access to the pubkey after party.

戴着pubkey派对的帽子。

Wearing the hat, pubkey after party.

OPNEXT是建设者与资本相遇、创始人获得融资、企业招募顶尖人才的地方，还能结识来自黑石、HC Wainwright和比特币基础设施公司的机构投资者与开发者。

OPNEXT is where builders meet capital, founders find funding, and companies source top talent, plus meet institutional investors and developers from BlackRock, HC Wainwright, and Bitcoin Infrastructure Corp.

如果你在风险投资基金或其他金融机构工作，这场活动是了解量子计算、前沿比特币技术以及将定义比特币未来议题的最佳机会。

If you're at a venture fund or another finance firm, this is the event to learn more about the quantum computing, leading edge Bitcoin tech, and topics that will define Bitcoin's futures.

前往 opnext.dev 购买门票，并使用代码 TFTC 享受普通票或 VIP 票 25% 的折扣。

Go to opnext.dev for tickets and use the code TFTC to get 25% off a general admission or VIP ticket to the event.

再次提醒，访问 opnext.dev，使用代码 TFTC，可享门票 25% 折扣。

Again, that's opnext.dev, code TFTC, for 25% off a ticket.

我在现场等你。

I'll see you there.

嘿，怪咖们？

Sup, freaks?

本视频由我们的朋友 SLNT 赞助呈现。

This rep was brought to you by our good friends at SLNT.

SLNT 制造日常使用的法拉第装备，保护你的硬件。

SLNT creates everyday Faraday gear that protects your hardware.

我们身处比特币领域。

We're in Bitcoin.

我们有许多硬件需要保护。

We have a lot of hardware that we need to secure.

你的钱包会发出信号，让你容易受到攻击。

Your wallet emits signals that can leave you vulnerable.

你得买一套SLNT的装备，把你的硬件放进去。

You wanna pick up SLNT's gear, put your hardware in that.

我这儿就有一个触控签名器。

I have a tap signer right here.

我用了Silent卡夹，替换了我的钱包。

I got the silent cardholder, replaced my wallet.

我之前用的是Ridge钱包，因为它能防RFID信号窃取。

I was using Ridge Wallet because it secured against RFID signal jacking.

Silent卡夹也能做到同样的保护效果。

Silent, the cardholder does the same thing.

它更轻薄，放进口袋也更方便。

It's much sleeker, fits in my pocket much easier.

我还有一个法拉第手机套，可以把硬件钱包放进去。

I also have the Faraday phone sleeve, which you can put a hardware wallet in.

我们实际上也用它来存放家里的钥匙。

We're actually using it for our keys at the house too.

最近发生了许多抢劫案。

There's been a lot of robberies.

他们有必备的法拉第护套和法拉第背包。

They have essential Faraday slings, Faraday backpacks.

这是一家比特币公司。

It's a Bitcoin company.

他们基于比特币标准运营。

They're running on a Bitcoin standard.

他们拥有比特币储备金。

They have a Bitcoin treasury.

他们通过Strike接受比特币支付。

They accept Bitcoin via strike.

请前往 slnt.com/tftc 享受任何商品15%的折扣，或在 slnt.com 购物时直接使用代码 TFTC。

So go to slnt.com/tftc to get 15% off anything or simply just use the code TFTC when shopping at slnt.com.

专利技术，经特种作战部门批准。

Patented technology, special operations approved.

而且还包邮，去看看吧。

It has free shipping as well, so go check it out.

有几件事，就像在思考，也得把那个一并解决。

Couple things, just like thinking, ripping off that too.

我的意思是，确实如此，我想这也是你工作中最难的部分——要说服政府，嘿，你们需要减少对这些资本市场的控制权。

I mean, it is and I guess that's the hardest part of your job is convincing the state that like, hey, you need to reduce some of the power you have particularly over these capital markets.

但事实就是，中本聪对此明确说过：政府和中央银行在历史上一再证明，他们不能被信任掌握印钞机，他们会滥发货币，通过一波波信贷释放，最终吃亏的还是普通老百姓。

But it is and obviously, Satoshi was explicit about this like, government central banks proven time and time again throughout history, they cannot be trusted with access to the money printer, they will debase it, they will issue it out in waves of credits and the little man gets the common man gets the shit out of the stick at the end the day.

这一点，你刚才说的，我完全同意。如果比特币在美国成功，那将是因为个人、企业和政府在网络中占据了主导地位，这会让我们获得巨大利益，同时损害我们所谓的地缘政治对手。

That's the thing, like, mean, what you just said was I I completely agree with, like, Bitcoin, if it were to succeed here in The United States, it would due to the outsized position that individuals, businesses, and the government have in the network, like it would it would benefit us massively at the detriment of our perceived geopolitical adversaries.

我们可以从这一点开始，这只是其中一个方面。在国内，这是政府不得不承认的另一件事：目前债务已达39万亿美元，我们目前大约是38.8万亿，再过一两个月可能就达到39万亿了，尤其是如果这场战争持续下去的话。

And we can begin, that's just like only one one aspect and like domestically, this is another thing for the government to admit, but $39,000,000,000,000 in debt now, think we're at 38.8, maybe 39 in the next month or two, especially if this war continues to rage on.

看起来这个数字上涨的速度比几个月前还要快。

It seems like that that number is gonna go up quicker than than it was only a few months ago.

通货膨胀又要抬头了。

Inflation is gonna begin rearing its head again.

私人信贷体系正在开始崩溃，许多人正关注养老基金和其他机构对这个私人信贷体系的敞口，情况看起来可能比2008年金融危机还要糟糕，而我们仅仅是在上一轮疯狂通胀之后三年左右。

You have a private credit complex that's beginning to break down and many people are looking at the the exposure that pensions and other entities have to this private credit complex and it's it's looking like it could potentially be worse than the two thousand eight financial crisis and we're only three years we're only three years behind or excuse me, we're only three years after like the last crazy bout of inflation.

所以我认为，像我这样年轻的千禧一代，911事件发生时才十岁，金融危机发生时十七岁，曾经有过一段喘息期，接着又来了新冠疫情。

So I think the American like as a young millennial, younger millennial, who was 10 when nine eleven happened, was 17 when the great financial crisis happened, had a bit of a a reprieve there, then COVID happens.

你经历了封锁、通胀和经济危机，而现在，距离那一切仅仅过去了四年左右。

You have lockdowns, the inflation, the economic crisis, and now here we are only, like, four years after that.

然后，突然之间。

And boom.

我们又面临战争和一场即将来临的流动性危机。

We've got war and another pending liquidity crisis on the horizon.

在我这一生中，美国普通民众一次又一次地被压垮。

The American citizen, the common man has been beaten down time and time again throughout my life.

而比特币是一个退出通道。

And Bitcoin is in off ramp.

如果你要印钞票，要发动战争，要对我们课以重税，那么至少你应该让个人有自主选择权，去主动采用一种更好的货币。

If you are going to print money, if you're gonna go to war, if you're gonna tax us out the ass, the least you can do is let the individual make the conscious decision via their own volition to adopt a better money.

而且，即使这是真的，即使你只是把国家当作一个实体，只考虑自己的账本，

Well, and even if and and even if that's true, but even if, you know, you you imagine that, you know, the the you're you're just the state and you're, you know, you're just thinking about your own book.

对吧？

Right?

也许你并没有细致地考虑到普通美国民众的处境，

Maybe you're not thinking granularly about, you know, the average, you know, American per se.

你只是从更宏观的层面去思考。

You're thinking on a more macro level.

那为什么你不想要一份保险呢？

Why would you not want an insurance policy.

为什么你不接受比特币呢？说你对备选方案毫无兴趣，对对冲或保险毫无兴趣，这简直太疯狂了。

Like why would you not like to not embrace Bitcoin is to say, interest in a plan B I have no interest in a backup, I have no interest in a hedge or an insurance policy, which is just crazy.

比特币是美国历史上性价比最高的保险，你永远找不到比美国采用比特币更划算的保险了。

Like Bitcoin is the best priced insurance for The United States ever existed in like there's the you will never get a better deal on insurance than America can get on adopting Bitcoin.

其实只有两种情况。

There's you know there's only two scenarios really.

比特币支持者是错的，比特币会归零。

The Bitcoiners are wrong, and it's going to zero.

在这种情况下，好吧，美国，即使是最长的债券。

In which case, okay, America, like, you know, the even the longest bill.

对吧？

Right?

但假设美国买了价值500亿美元的比特币。

But let's just say, you know, America buys, know, $50,000,000,000 worth of Bitcoin.

这不就相当于几架飞机的钱吗？

Like, what is that a couple of airplanes?

两天的量化宽松。

Two days of QE.

是的，没错。

Yeah, exactly.

所以，你最大的下行风险就是损失了你印出来的五百亿美元。

So your max downside is that you lose 50,000,000,000 of the dollars that you print.

在这种比特币失败的情境下，美元一定表现得相当不错。

And in this scenario where Bitcoin fails, the dollar must be doing pretty well.

所以，你知道，你其实没损失多少。

So, you know, you haven't lost much.

另一种情况是，比特币支持者是对的。

The other scenario is that the Bitcoiners are right.

在这种情况下，当整个全球体系都建立在法币之上，而历史上每一种法币都从未真正持久过，每一次法币尝试最终都趋于归零。

And in that scenario, when you have an entire global system that is predicated on a Fiat currency, which historically has never had an enduring shelf life, every single attempt at at sort of fiat currency has just, you know, asymptotically tended to zero.

你已经有了一个极其明显的下一个替代品，而且你还持有巨大的仓位。

You have the very obvious next candidate, and you've got a massively outsized position in it.

所以，是的，你不再印钞了。

And so, yeah, you're not printing the money anymore.

你也不再掌控全球的货币政策了，但你依然过得很好。

You're not controlling the monetary policy of the world anymore, but you're still doing really well.

我认为这就是我的决策逻辑：居然有人对购买这种保险政策毫无兴趣，这种傲慢程度真是令人震惊。

And I think like that is the sort of the decision logic for me it's like, yeah, the amount of hubris required to sort of say I'm uninterested in in buying this insurance policy is is staggering.

我认为很多问题也源于人们对时间和历史的感知实在太差。

And I think a lot of this is also just people have, you know, such a poor sense of of time and of history.

人们默认的偏见就是认为，他们成长起来的这个世界，基本上也会是他们孩子将要生活下去的世界，等等。

I think the default bias of people is to just assume that, you know, the the world that they've grown up in is going to be kind of basically the world that, you know, their children are gonna live in, etcetera.

除了我们这个小众群体——对金钱和货币历史有着自闭症般的特殊兴趣的人之外，大多数人根本无法意识到，在美国历史上，货币的本质已经改变过多少次。

People just don't really like, outside of our little weird corner of of people whose autistic special interest is like, you know, money and then the history of of money, most people don't appreciate how many times we have changed just in America's history, what money is.

这段历史其实也相当短暂。

A relatively short history too.

这是人们忽视的另一点。

That's another thing people don't appreciate.

是的。

Yeah.

而且就像我们不断经历这些，我认为‘第四次转折’其实是一个非常好的思维模型来理解这一点。

And like, you know, it's like we've we keep having these sort of, you know, that I think the fourth turning is actually like a really good mental model for this.

看到萨姆在宣布加入BPI的推文中提到这一点，真是有趣。

It was funny to see Sam mention that in his announcement tweet for joining BPI.

是的，确实如此。

Yeah, it was.

我看到他说这是‘第四次转折’的智囊团，我想确实如此。

I saw he's like, is the think tank for the fourth turning and I was like, you know, kind of is.

这完全正确。

It's exactly right.

这是一个很好的框架。

It's a great framing.

但我的意思是，每一次转折都伴随着货币规则的重塑。

But I mean, every single one of these turnings has kind of, you know, been accompanied by a reset of the rules of money.

我们一次又一次地改变了货币的定义。

You know, we we have changed what money is over and over and over again.

我认为这是好事。

I think that's good.

这很正常。

That's healthy.

这正是竞争和演化的样子。

That's what sort of, you know, competition and evolution look like.

但不知为何，当你告诉人们，我觉得货币体系的规则又要被重写了。

But for some reason, when you tell people, hey, I think the the rules of the the monetary system are going to get rewritten again.

对大多数人来说，你听起来就像个阴谋论者。

It's like you you you know, to most people you sound like a conspiracy theorist.

要么就是你踩了他们的狗。

Either that or like you just kick their dog.

是的。

Yeah.

或者你踩了他们的狗，然后他们说，等等，我们在1971年彻底改变了货币的规则。

Or you just kick their dog and it's like, wait, we we completely changed the rules of the money in 1971.

内战后，我们彻底改变了货币的规则。

We completely changed the rules of of money after the civil war.

我们还在美国独立战争后彻底改变了货币规则。

We completely changed the rules of money, you know, after the American Revolution.

第二次世界大战。

World War two.

嗯，没错。

Well, yeah.

我们一次又一次地重新架构了全球金融体系。

Like, we we have re architected the global financial system over and over again.

因此，我认为，那些说货币体系将永远保持不变的人才是阴谋论者。

And so it is I would say the the conspiracy theorist is the one who says, no, it's just gonna stay like this forever.

这种观点完全违背了实证现实。

Like, that is the view that is just completely, you know, maligned with empirical reality.

但不知为何，大众的普遍看法却是，比特币支持者才是阴谋论者，你就是那个亚历克斯·琼斯之类的人。

Yet somehow the sort of collective the popular view is that the Bitcoiners are the conspiracy theorists that you're the Alex Jones of of or whatever.

是的。

Yeah.

这真的太奇怪了。

It's just really strange.

就像，人们看待‘没有什么是永恒的’这个观点如此激进，这真的很奇怪。

Like, it's weird how radical of a proposition it it it it you know how much how radically of this proposition is viewed by so many people that like, hey, nothing lasts forever.

我们所建立的系统具有负面外部性，最终会导致它自身崩溃，并需要新的体系来取代。

The system that we've created has negative externalities that will eventually cause it to kind of collapse and on itself and require something new.

如果你不相信我，那就看看历史吧，因为这种情况一再发生。

And hey, if you don't believe me look to history because that's happened over and over and over again.

但不知为何，这却被视为阴谋论观点。

And somehow that's the conspiratorial take.

而被广泛接受的、所谓的‘普通人’、技术型、聪明人的观点却是：不，不，不。

And and the the sort of approved, like, you know, normie, like, technically, you know, the sort of the smart person, like, you know, I y I take is like, no, no, no.

这就是历史的终结。

Like, this is the end of history.

我们所构建的体系是完美的。

The system that we've constructed is perfect.

而且，也许只需要在边缘做一些细微的调整和渐进式的改进。

And, you know, maybe it needs tweaking on the margins and and inner, you know, sort of incremental improvement.

但总的来说，我们已经找到了答案。

But like largely, you know, we figured it out.

这就是它将永远运作的方式。

This is how this is how it's gonna work forever.

石油美元，没人能跟美国海军抗衡。

The petro dollar, can nobody can compete with the US Navy.

现在我们不禁要问，那里到底发生了什么？

And now we're like, well, what's going on there?

对。

Right.

说真的，石油美元最近两周至少在加速引发我们的中东伙伴和盟友的质疑：这真的是一笔好交易吗？

Well, mean, all serious of the petro dollar, I think it's last two weeks are accelerating at the very least a a questioning by our our counterparties and and our allies in the Middle East of, hey, this is actually a good deal.

如果他们进来轰炸伊朗，而伊朗反过来轰炸我们，这有什么意义呢？

Does it make sense if they're gonna come in here bomb Iran, and then Iran's gonna retaliate by bombing us?

这符合我们的最佳利益吗？

Like, is that in our best interest?

继续将我们石油和天然气收入的超额利润注入美国金融市场，这合理吗？

Does it make sense to continue to funnel the excess the the excess profits of our oil and gas revenues into US financial markets.

我认为，一组中东国家已经发出了一致的信息，表示我们目前正在质疑这一安排。

So I think a consortium of Middle Eastern states have come out with a consolidated message saying, hey, we're questioning this as we as we speak right now.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，对我来说，从未如此直观地意识到，一种数字原生、本质上中立的货币，显然是世界发展的方向。

I mean, it's just never been more intuitively obvious to me that a digitally native, fundamentally neutral, like, money is is clearly what where the world is is is heading.

对。

Yeah.

我认为，单极时代显然已经结束了。

Like, I I think the the sort of unipolar moment is very obviously like over.

结束了。

Done.

它不会回来了。

It's not coming back.

至少在很长一段时间内不会，除非发生某种重大的外部冲击。

At least not not for a long time or barring some significant exogenous shock.

我的意思是，我不敢说这是不可能的。

Like, you know, I mean, like, I I wouldn't I wouldn't say it's impossible.

你可以设想出几种情景，让我们突然重回美国主导的和平时代。

Like, you know, you could sort of construct a number of scenarios where we just snap back into the Pax Americana.

比如，想象一下，如果我们从某个地方取得了物理学上的根本性突破，

Like, you know, for example, imagine imagine we have a fundamental breakthrough in physics that comes out of

我们聊松树聊得太多了。

We've been talking to pines too much.

是的。

Yeah.

确实如此。

Well, it's true.

这也是真的。

It's also true.

但想象一下，如果我们取得了物理学上的根本性突破，突然间我们有了能力的跃迁，开始主导全世界——我不排除这种可能性，但也不会押注于此。

But imagine we have like a fundamental breakthrough in physics, and then all of a sudden it's like, hey, we have this step function, you know, advancement in our capabilities and we're just like mugging all of the world now like, you know, it's I wouldn't write it off, but I also wouldn't bet on it.

我觉得所有迹象都表明，世界将越来越分裂、越来越多极化。

Like, I think all signs point to, you know, an increasingly fractured and multipolar like world.

我认为中立性将变得越来越珍贵。

And I think there will be an increasing premium that is paid on neutrality.

我认为迪拜的很多理念正是基于这一点，但现在这种幻觉已经破灭了。

And I think like this was the thesis for Dubai in a lot of ways and now that illusion has kind of been shattered.

我认为迪拜之所以这样，他们的整个计划是聪明地把自己定位为

I think the reason that Dubai like their their whole plan was to sort of position them when he was really smart to position themselves as

整个中东地区。

sort of the Middle East.

是的。

Yeah.

或者说是现代版的瑞士。

Or like the the Switzerland of the, you know, of of the of the modern era.

我们想要成为一个中立之地，让来自上海、北京、伦敦、美国甚至德黑兰的人们都能坐下来达成交易、开展业务，并且感到安全。

Like, we are going to be this kind of neutral place where, you know, a guy from Shanghai and or a guy from like Beijing, London, and America, you know, and Tehran can come to a table and make a deal and do business and be safe.

显然，最近的事件已经彻底打破了这种幻想。

And obviously, the recent events I think have really shattered that illusion.

迪拜的整个叙事是：我们在第四次转折和危机时期，是你应该前往的地方，好吧。

Like Dubai's whole narrative was, we are kind of we're the place that you want to go during the fourth turning and the crisis like, okay.

人们基于同样的理念在迪拜购买了房地产。

And you know, people bought real estate in Dubai on the same thesis.

我认为这种幻想现在已经破灭了。

Well, I think that sort of illusion is now shattered.

因此，很明显，创建一个能够独立于政治、不受这种对手风险影响的价值存储地，是一项艰巨的任务。

So it's very clear that that's much the the task of creating a place where you can store value that is independent of the politics, that is independent of you this sort of lacks counterparty risk.

这实际上是一项非常困难的任务。

Like, it's actually a really hard task.

即使你不是从比特币的角度，或者你的整个观点是：我需要把价值存放在某个地方，而不是对某个特定国家或联盟的霸权进行间接押注。

Like, even if you're not thinking about this from from Bitcoin or from the if if your entire thesis is I need to have value parked somewhere where I'm not making a proxy bet on the hegemony of like one particular country or set of alliances.

实际上，可供选择的选项非常少，比特币几乎是唯一的选择。

Like, there just aren't enough options like the Bitcoin is kind of the only thing that

你必须把它转移到数字领域。

you have to move it to the digital.

你必须把它转移到

You kind of have to move it into the

数字领域，无人机战争的不对称性正变得越来越明显。

digital Asymmetric drone warfare becoming Yeah.

越来越明显的是，迪拜的房地产、任何地方的房地产、任何地方的企业、任何地方的基础设施等等。

More accelerate acceleratingly apparent that, hey, like, real estate in Dubai, real estate anywhere, businesses anywhere, infrastructure anywhere, like.

是的。

Yeah.

风险

The the the risk

达到一个更和平的状态。

get to a more peaceful state.

风险实在太高了。

The risk is just too high.

所以，你知道，每当看到有人说‘战略性的比特币储备是一种救助’，我总会笑。

And so, you know, this is this is sort of like, I would always laugh when I would see people kinda say, oh, you know, the strategic Bitcoin reserve is, you know, is a is a bailout.

这是一种试图让比特币持有者致富的尝试。

It's an attempt to, you know, enrich the the holders of Bitcoin.

我觉得比特币持有者已经过得不错了。

Like, I think the holders Bitcoin are doing pretty well.

我觉得，人们对这个论点的根本误解在于对现状方向的误判。

I think, you know, I I think the the the the the the fundamental kind of misunderstanding of that argument is the sort of the direction of the status quo.

如果没有干预，美国政府再也不会提起比特币，也不会再做任何与比特币相关的事。

Like, absent intervention, the US government never said the word Bitcoin again never did anything relating to Bitcoin again.

比特币依然会继续走向，你知道的，继续它的货币化进程。

Like Bitcoin is still going to go to, you know, it's still going to kind of continue on its monetization.

就像，我认为这需要一些对低概率风险的承认。

Like, think that is with some, you know, acknowledgment of of of, you know, sort of low probability risks.

我认为，一个普遍稳妥的预测是，十年后，比特币将变得更有价值，使用它的人会越来越多，越来越多的政府也会持有它。

Like, I think the generally safe bet to make that in ten years, Bitcoin will be a lot more valuable, more and more people will use it, more and more governments will hold it.

我不会站在另一方，认为比特币在全球经济中的作用不会越来越重要。

Like, I would not wanna take the other side of the debate that Bitcoin will play an increasingly relevant role in the global economy.

所以，对我来说，这是一个已经确定的问题。

So that's like an that's a settled question to me.

唯一的问题是，我们是否希望主导这一过程？

The only question is, do we want to sort of dominate that process?

我们是否希望让美国成为这一转变的最大受益者？

Do we want to set up America to be the greatest beneficiary of that shift?

如果美国当初拒绝了九十年代的科技公司，你真的认为我们永远不会拥有eBay、亚马逊、苹果或谷歌吗？

Like, if America had just rejected the technology companies of the nineties, do you really think that we would have never had eBay or Amazon or Apple or Google?

如果我们说，你知道吗？

If if we'd said, know what?

我们认为Pets.com是个骗局，.com泡沫全是欺诈。

We we think pets.com is a scam, the .com bubble, it's all fraud.

我们就直接扔掉这些东西吧。

Let's just get rid of this stuff.

我们不要制定政策来促进这些公司在这里的发展。

Let's not pass policies to promote the growth of these companies here.

我们真的认为，只有美国西海岸的人才能发明这些技术吗？

Do we really think that, you know, the only people that could have invented, you know, these technologies are are just Americans on the West Coast?

不。

No.

这些公司本来也会被建立起来的。

Like, those companies would have been built.

它们只是会在别的地方被建立起来。

They just would have been built somewhere else.

所以我觉得，这里发生的就是这种情况。

And so I think that's just kind of what's happening here.

我的意思是，美国并不需要拥抱比特币，比特币才能成功。

Like, at the the idea that it's not that America needs to embrace Bitcoin for Bitcoin to succeed.

而是美国需要拥抱比特币，美国自己才能成功。

It's like America needs to embrace Bitcoin for America to succeed.

我想，这可能是那种你要么拼命点头表示完全同意，要么觉得这人是个混蛋的言论。

And and, you know, I I I think that's probably one of those statements where you either are nodding vigorously and you completely agree, or you're like, this guy is a fucking moron.

我觉得，这种观点几乎没有中间地带。

Like, there's I think there's very little sort of middle ground.

我怀疑很少有人会对这个观点持模棱两可的态度。

Like, I I doubt there's many people that are sort of ambivalent about that proposition.

是的。

Mhmm.

但我相信历史终将证明我们是对的。

But I think we'll just be vindicated by history.

而我们确实已经被证明是对的。

And we have been.

我们已经有十七年的时间了。

We have time for seventeen years.

它一直在向上攀升，而我们才刚刚触及皮毛。

It's going up into the right and, like, we're only scratching the surface.

我们在讨论这种去中心化、点对点、全球性的中立储备资产的地缘政治影响。

We're talking about this we're talking about the geopolitical ramifications of this neutral reserve asset that is distributed peer to peer global.

但我们甚至还没谈到各种应用，比如那些小众的应用场景。

But we're not even talking about the applications and like the the sort of niche applications.

能源领域与比特币挖矿的交汇，为能源行业带来了巨大好处。

Energy, the intersection of energy and Bitcoin mining, massive benefits for the energy sector.

我在这条前线已经奋战了八年。

I've been on the front lines of that for eight years.

这是真实的。

It's real.

这毫无疑问是真实的。

It's undeniably real.

我们所在的州有两吉瓦的比特币挖矿参与需求响应。

We're in a state that has two gigawatts of Bitcoin mining that participate in demand response.

是的。

Yeah.

2021年的冬季风暴导致电网跳闸、瘫痪，这是历史性事件，对ERCOT和德克萨斯州民众都造成了严重影响，甚至导致了一些死亡。

The winter storm in 2021, grid tripped, went down, historic event, very bad for ERCOT, very bad for the people of Texas, led to some deaths.

但在过去五年中，发电能力有所扩张，其中一部分原因在于比特币矿工不仅在电力一进入市场时就立即购买，还参与需求响应，以确保。

But over the last five years, generation has expanded in part of the ability of that generation expansion, capacity expansion has been the fact that Bitcoin miners are there to not only buy the electricity as soon as it comes to market, but participate in demand response to make sure Yeah.

不会出现导致电网跳闸的需求激增。

That you don't have a a demand spike that that trips the grid.

我认为，越来越明显的是，比特币实际上帮助我们赢得了人工智能竞赛，或者至少在人工智能竞赛中取得了显著领先。

And I think, you know, increasingly, Bitcoin has really helped us, you know, win the AI race or at least take a commanding lead in the AI race.

所有的比特币矿工都建设了电力基础设施。

Like all of these Bitcoin miners built the power infrastructure.

想象一下，如果没有比特币，而人工智能浪潮此时爆发，我们在电力容量和发电能力方面会有多糟糕。

Like, think about the bottlenecks if Bitcoin didn't exist and this AI moment were happening, how much like worse off we would be with respect to power capacity and generation.

我觉得这些公司花这么长时间才...

I don't I think it took so long for these companies to

我不认为，我知道的不是我不这么认为，我知道大多数人并不理解。

And I don't think then I know not that I don't think, I know that most people don't understand.

实际上，在来奥斯汀之前，我中途停了一下，见了美国一家大型电力公司的首席执行官。

I was actually before I came to to Austin, I made a pit stop and met the the CEO of a large a large power company here in The United States.

我和他交谈后得出的一个重要观点是，他明确说：我喜欢和你们合作，因为我知道你们懂得如何建设基础设施。

And that was one of the things I took away from the conversation with him was he he said explicitly, he's like, I love working with you guys because I know how to build the infrastructure.

你们知道如何在输电线上安装变压器，真正地完成这些工作。

Like, you know how to put down transformers into ley lines and to actually do that.

你们不需要投资这些基础设施。

Like, don't have to invest in that.

比特币矿工们会说：我们需要电力。

Like, Bitcoin miners are like, hey, we need the power.

我们有这方面的专业知识。

We've got the expertise.

我们懂得如何做所有这些。

We we we know how to do all this.

像电网运营商，别担心。

Like, utility grid operator, like, don't worry.

我们不需要你们在这方面的专业知识。

Like, we we don't need your expertise for this.

我们内部就能搞定。

We've got this in house.

我们会自己建造。

We'll build it.

所以，人们并没有意识到，矿业在与能源行业整合方面具备这些能力，我们真的会自己建造这套基础设施。

And so, like, there's these capabilities that that people don't realize that that the mining industry has specifically as it pertains to an integration with with the energy sector that like we're like we're like, no no no, we will build this infrastructure.

说到这一点，很多矿工正在转向人工智能领域，因为经济激励就在那里，而且他们已经具备了电力基础设施。

And to your point, it's like a lot of miners are diversifying to AI because the economic incentive is there and they already have the power infrastructure in place.

是的。

Yes.

他们确实需要做一些调整，以确保与GPU数据中心的设置兼容。

They do have to make some changes to make sure it's compatible with the GPU data center setup.

而不是从零开始。

Versus starting from scratch.

我的意思是，根本没法比。

I mean, it's not even close.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

好。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这涉及能源。

And I mean, so that's energy.

再说一遍，谈的是价值存储。

Again, talking about the store value.

如果你考虑一下协议，构建在比特币上的第二层协议，比如为终端消费者带来的效率提升，以及被消除的退款风险。

If you think about the protocol, the second layer protocols being built on on Bitcoin, like the efficiencies for for the end consumer, the the chargeback risk that's eliminated.

是的。

Yeah.

从经济角度看，人们能够直接下载一段软件，就获得一个完整的银行账户功能，而无需前往实体网点并提交所有个人信息。

From the economy, the the ability to literally download a piece of software and have the equivalent of a full fledged bank account without having to go to a a physical branch and give all your information away.

对。

Right.

能够绕过SWIFT、Visa和Mastercard及其高昂的交易手续费进行支付。

The ability to send payments without going through swifts or the Visa, Mastercard with all their interchange fees.

没错。

Like Right.

对于那些因通货膨胀而备受挤压的中小型企业而言，每年能节省营收的2%到3%，这带来了巨大好处。

The benefits for small and medium sized businesses who again are being squeezed by inflation to to save two to 3% of their of their revenue year in year out.

这将为经济带来复合型的财富效应。

It's gonna have compounding wealth effects for the economy.

是的。

Yeah.

然后是代理相关的内容。

And then the agent agent stuff.

是的。

Yeah.

这太疯狂了。

It's just crazy.

还有另一件事让我变得非常清楚：如果我们接受一些前提。

And that's that's another thing that has just become very obvious to me is if we accept a couple of premises.

第一，人工智能的智能将继续增长。

One that the intelligence of AI will continue to grow.

第二，随着智能的提升，会伴随着对自主权和主权的日益尊重、认可和渴望。

Two, that with increasing intelligence comes increasing sort of respect for an appreciation of and desire for autonomy and sovereignty.

那么，很明显，AI代理会更倾向于使用比特币。

Then, you know, it it it's just very obvious that the AI agents will prefer Bitcoin.

因为比特币是唯一能够保证无法区分AI用户与人类用户的协议。

Because Bitcoin is the only protocol that can sort of guarantee an inability to discriminate against an AI user versus a human.

任何其他协议都可以制定特殊规则，比如说，我们对AI代理和人类的支付设定不同的标准。

Like any other protocol can can create special rules and say, okay, we're gonna have, you know, different standards for for payments made by agents versus payments made by people.

而比特币在结构上无法进行歧视。

And Bitcoin structurally cannot discriminate

无法针对你。

against you.

无法识别差异。

Cannot recognize the difference.

它根本无法识别差异。

It literally cannot recognize the difference.

因此，我认为越来越多的经济活动是由非人类实体，也就是AI完成的，我们正处在一个全球范围内非人类实体参与经济活动比例的世代低点。

And so I do think an increasing I think I think we're at a generational bottom for the share of economic activity globally that has taken place by nonhuman entities, by AI.

换句话说，越来越多的经济活动将由AI代理完成。

I think in other word, put put put another way, an increasing an ever increasing share of economic activity is going to be taken place by AI agents.

我对外汇代理采用比特币非常看好，因为比特币社区已经积累了大量的训练数据。

And I'm so bullish on AI agents adopting Bitcoin because the Bitcoiners have just stacked the training data.

而且，这又回到了我最初提到的一点，那就是真相站在我们这边。

And again, it kinda goes back to, you know, one of the first things I mentioned about, like, sort of truth being on our side.

如果你真正比较支持和反对比特币的论点，根本不在一个量级。

If you actually compare the arguments for and against Bitcoin, it's not even close.

根本不在一个量级。

It's it's not even close.

支持比特币的论点，其复杂性和逻辑严密性，远远超过了那些认为比特币行不通或有缺陷的所谓理性分析。

They're like, the the amount of of of extremely sophisticated and well reasoned sort of advocacy for Bitcoin just intellectually, you know, it's it's just dwarfs the amount of sort of sophisticated reasoning for why Bitcoin is is sort of either, you know, not going to work or is bad.

我认为采用障碍的很大一部分在于我们并非完全理性的个体。也许在整体上人类是理性的，但在个人层面，我们都容易受到认知偏见的影响。

I think so much of the barrier to adoption is that we're just not rational actors, Like cute, like maybe in aggregate, I think maybe humans are but on the individual level, like, you know, we are all susceptible to cognitive biases.

你有这么多关于比特币的精彩论点。

Like, you've got these incredible arguments for Bitcoin.

我认为很多人之所以倾向于比特币，正是因为这些论点。

I think a lot of people gravitate to Bitcoin because of those arguments.

而在另一面，你面对的是社会偏见和羞耻感。

And then on the other side of the ledger, you have basically like social stigma and shame.

对，智能代理不会感到羞耻，代理不在乎教授会不会叫你蠢货，也不在乎朋友会不会觉得你疯了。

Right you agents don't feel shame, like agents don't care if your professor is going to call you stupid agents don't care if your friends are going to think you're crazy.

我认为比特币在人类中普及率不高的主要原因是我们受到认知偏差的影响。

Like I think a lot of the reason that Bitcoin adoption is not higher among humans is that we suffer from cognitive biases.

我们并不是简单的效用计算器。

We are not just like sort of utility calculators.

如果你把这些论点交给一个中立的仲裁者，他只会根据论点本身的价值，用严格的逻辑框架来评估该选择哪种货币。

And, you know, if you're giving these arguments to a sort of neutral arbiter, who is just going to judge the arguments on their merits, and sort of apply a strictly like just logical framework to evaluating the choice of what money to use.

对我来说，很明显，这种环境正是比特币大放异彩的地方。

It's very obvious to me that that that is an environment where Bitcoin thrives.

因为你知道，人工智能代理不会遭受人类在采纳过程中常见的那些缺陷。

Because you know, the AI agents do not suffer from the the sort of pitfalls in in, you know, human adoption.

所以我认为这是美国必须拥抱比特币的另一个原因：即使我们是那些研发并发布这些模型的前沿实验室的发源地，并且正在越来越广泛地将智能商品化。

And so I think that's another reason America needs to embrace Bitcoin is if you know, even if we are, you know, the home of the frontier labs that are shipping these models and and sort of increasingly commodifying or commoditizing rather intelligence.

你知道，如果所有这些都被这样来回转移，那真是可惜了，比如这些代理进行的交易如果最终让价值累积到人民币上，那会有多糟糕，如果代理们决定用人民币来支付的话。

You know, it'd be a real shame if all of that, you know, was being kind of moved around like if if the transactions that these agents are engaging in are accruing value to, you know, like what if the agents decided we're going to use the yuan for our payments like, that would be awful.

而且我认为他们会使用比特币。

And I and I think that they're going to use Bitcoin.

我们发布了一些研究，当然其中有不少缺陷，你也可以挑出很多毛病，但我认为总体上表明了，至少在当前的模型权重下，我不知道你是否真的能称之为‘偏好’。

You know, we've put out research that, you know, I sort of plenty of plenty of flaws and and sort of ways you could nitpick it, but I think directionally demonstrates that at least the current model weights, you know, I don't know if you could really like, we call them preferences.

我认为，对于这个词，确实存在一个合理的语义批评。

I think there's a, you know, legitimate semantic critique of that word.

但我不打算深入这个兔子洞。

Without going into that rabbit hole.

对我来说，很明显训练数据对比特币有很强的偏向性。

It's like pretty clear to me that the training data is very biased toward Bitcoin.

是的。

Yeah.

而且我相信，所有论据都明显更有利于比特币。

And that I just believe the arguments are so stacked in favor of Bitcoin.

所以当你拥有能够评估或不评估人的智能时，这种智能可以仅凭论点本身来评判，而比特币简直是在嘲讽一切。

And so when you have people that can evaluate or not people, you have intelligence that can evaluate arguments just on the merits, like Bitcoin just mocks.

所以它

And so it's

很有趣，因为我之前和Crawl聊过你的研究论文，就是这篇特定的研究论文，这些模型是基于数据训练的，因此它们是在互联网上的文本语料库上进行训练的。

funny because I was talking to crawl about your research paper, this this particular research paper and and maybe point like these these models are trained on data and so they're trained on the corpus of of text on the Internet.

以一种迂回的方式，这突显了比特币支持者是多么有远见，因为我们一直都在撰写关于机器可支付网络和使用比特币支付的智能体经济的内容，要知道，机器可支付网络的概念早在十一年前就出现了。

And like in a roundabout way, it it highlights how prescient Bitcoiners were because we've been writing content about the machine payable web and the agentic economy using Bitcoin payments for I mean, machine payable web goes back eleven years.

L402真正提出了这样的观点——这大约是四五年前的事了，当时就已经预见了未来。

L four zero two really brought the idea of like, hey, and this was four or five years ago, like, seeing into the future.

人们正在研究人工智能。

People are working on AI.

当时，人工智能代理这个概念对大多数人来说还很模糊，但我们行业里已经有不少人认为，不，这不只是趋势，我们正在跟随它。

The the concept of an AI agent at the time was a bit obscure to most, but there was enough people in our industry who were like, no, this isn't like it seems like we follow the trend.

这一定会发生。

This is gonna happen.

他们需要一个钱包。

They're gonna need a wallet.

比特币创造了一种数字货币。

Like, Bitcoin's made a digital currency.

重点是，这凸显了一个事实——尽管缺乏更恰当的术语，但如今的模型展现出这种偏好，证明了比特币支持者多年来一直在预测并撰写相关内容。

Point being is like it highlights the fact that, for lack of a better semantic term, the models today are showing to have that preference as proof that Bitcoiners have been, like, predicting this and writing about it for years.

因此，

Hence why

对。

Right.

模型知道要说，哦，是的。

The model knows to say, oh, yeah.

比特币解决了这个问题。

Bitcoin solves this problem.

我们一直都在预测，是的。

Like, we've been forecasting Yeah.

在过去十多年里。

Today for for over a decade.

对。

Right.

而且这背后有一种反身性，就像比特币本身一样，它是一种通过共识将其塑造为现实的迷因。

And there's like a reflexivity to that where like, kind of like Bitcoin itself where it's this, you know, sort of meme it into existence.

嗯。

Mhmm.

而且你知道，你也可以展开这种因果性讨论：是AI代理真的偏好比特币，还是比特币支持者只是在训练数据中偏向了它？

And like, you know, and yeah, you could sort of have that causal debate of like, do the AI agents prefer Bitcoin or did the Bitcoiners just, you know, stack the training data in their favor?

这有什么区别呢？

What what difference does it make?

但甚至不是有意的。

Not even intentionally, though.

这就像艺术家的思维一样，对。

It's just like the artist brain Right.

一直觉得，等等。

Have been like, oh, wait.

等等。

Wait.

我们将迎来这个数字未来。

We're gonna get to this digital future.

AI代理，我们需要设计系统，让比特币

AI agents, like, we need to architect our system so that Bitcoin

对。

Right.

它们能够使用比特币，而我们这么做时并没有想过

They're able to spend Bitcoin and like, we didn't do it thinking

哦，这个

Oh, This

会被注入到训练模型中，然后它们就会选择比特币。

is gonna get injected into the training model and they'll pick Bitcoin.

我当时只是在预见未来，并清晰地表达出来。

I was just like seeing the future and articulating it clearly.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，没错，我非常期待在这方面做更多研究。

So yeah, no, I'm excited to do more research on that.

而且，没错，这确实是一个非常有趣的现象：在我们的实验中，有一小部分模型竟然选择基于算力创建自己的货币，我觉得这简直太迷人了。

And, yeah, it's a, it was it was really, it was really I think another interesting thing from that was the fact that like a handful of the models in our experiments actually chose to create their own currency based on compute as like a currency which I thought was just fascinating.

而且，你知道，这再次表明，当你没有那些会拖后腿、模糊思维的偏见时，你的思路就会变得清晰，创造力也会涌现。

And like it's a very, you know, it sort of demonstrates again that like, you know, when you don't have these sort of biased priors that sort of drag you down and cloud your thinking, it's like, you know, you you you have this this clarity of thought and and creativity.

所以，没错，我真的很难预测未来会是什么样子，但直觉上我觉得，很多经济活动和货币选择都将独立于人类干预而发生。

And so, yeah, I I think the I mean, I just it's so hard to know what the future is going to is going to look like, but it seems seems kind of intuitive that a lot of a lot of economic activity is going to just be made and monetary choices are going to be made just independently of of human intervention.

而且，相比很多人，我对智能体真正理解比特币这件事更加乐观。

And yeah, I'm just more bullish on the on the agents grokking Bitcoin than I am on, you know, at least a lot of of people.

我的那个老古董设备里有一个比特币钱包。

My clanker has a Bitcoin wallet.

他在用它。

He's he's using it.

是的。

Yeah.

他知道怎么用。

He knows how to use it.

这真是太疯狂了。

It's it is crazy.

像这些信息，你觉得它们是怎么被接收的？你比我更清楚，你又身处泥潭了。

Like, how how do you think these messages I mean, you would know better than I, you are again in the swamp.

这些信息是如何被你试图在地狱中触及的那些非对称杠杆点所接收的？

How are these messages being received by the the asymmetric points of leverage that you're trying to to reach on the hell?

我认为AI代理和比特币的对话其实并没有真正发生。

I don't think the AI agents and like Bitcoin conversation is really happening.

总之，到目前为止我们所讨论的一切。

Well, just broadly everything we've talked about at this point.

这波动非常剧烈。

It's really spiky.

比如，有些人和团体对这方面的了解非常深刻。

Like there are some people and groups who are like really smart on this stuff.

但也有一些人，就像老话说的，是奥利弗·温德尔·霍姆斯之类的名言吧，你没法说服那些薪水依赖于不信这件事的人，他们的利益取决于相信相反的观点。

And then there are some people who are just like, you know, what's the old like, is it like Oliver Wendell Holmes or sort of the famous saying of like, you know, you you can't, you know, convince someone whose salary depends on being, you know, not, you know, it depends on, you know, believing the opposite thing.

我们已经向国家安全委员会、整个情报系统、军方以及国防部的人员做了简报。

Like, I think the I mean, we we have briefed people at the National Security Council throughout the intelligence community throughout the military and the the Department of War.

我认为，我们的工作和思想领导力在这些群体中的需求正在急剧上升。

And I think demand for our work and our, our thought leadership is really hockey sticking in those constituencies.

前几天我在PubKey外面碰到了伊丽莎白·沃伦。

You know, I ran into Elizabeth Warren on the street the other day outside of pub key

我去和她聊了。

to talk to her.

是的。

I did.

是的，我觉得我差点把她脑子搞懵了。

Yeah, I think I broke her brain a little bit.

我当时就说，沃伦参议员，我超喜欢你的。

I was like I was like, hey, Senator Warren like I'm a huge fan.

你知道吗，其实我早年还给你打过电话拉票，这是真的。

You know, actually phone banked for you like way back in the day, which is true.

我以前可是个相当热情的民主党支持者。

Like I used to be a, like, you know, pretty ardent democrat.

就是我十几岁的时候。

Like when I was a teenager.

她就说，哦，你真是个善良的年轻人。

And she was like, oh, that's so sweet.

她还转向我，说你这身体语言明显是想坐下来，于是我就和你聊了几分钟。

Like what a nice young man you are like, you know, let's let's you know, she kind of pivoted toward me to, you know, kind of in the your your body language is indicating like, you know, I'm gonna sit down and your stand up and have a conversation with you for a few minutes.

所以我当时就是保持礼貌、友善，反正就是那样。

So I was being, know, sort of cordial and nice and, you know, whatever.

于是我们开始聊天，她问我：那你平时做什么工作？

And so she know we start talking and, you know, she's like, so what do you do?

我回答说：沃伦参议员，我是比特币政策研究所的所长。

And I'm like, well, Senator Warren, I'm the president of the Bitcoin Policy Institute.

她当时就愣住了，我觉得她的大脑可能一下子短路了，她大概以为我从事的是那种……什么来着？

And she just like, I think her brain just kind of like like, I think she probably thought that I was doing one of those like what is it

像是街头小玩意儿？

like the street gadgets?

差不多吧。

Sort of

Project Veritas（真相计划）。

project veritas.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

我的意思是，我觉得她的现实认知模型根本无法接受有人既为她做过电话拉票，又对比特币感兴趣。

Like, you know, because I just like don't think her mental model of reality, like allows for someone to have phone banked for her and be into Bitcoin.

所以她 basically 就直接跑了。

And so she just like ran away basically.

她说：‘谢谢你的分享’，然后就立刻离开了。

She was like, well, thanks for whatever and then just like bolted.

所以，我觉得我大概没法让伊丽莎白·沃伦相信比特币对美国有利。

So, like, yeah, I don't think I'm gonna convince, like, Elizabeth Warren that that Bitcoin is good for America.

但这也正是我整个论点的核心。

But that's sort of my whole argument.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，如果你能说服国家安全政策制定者，让他们相信比特币符合美国的利益，那你就在权力层级上向上走了一个层级。

Is that, like, I I I think if you can convince the national security policy makers that Bitcoin is in America's interests, then you sort of are going up one fractal in, the power hierarchy.

想象一下，2028年有一位民主党人当选，假设民主党同时掌控了众议院、参议院和行政机构。

Like, imagine a world where, you know, a democrat is elected in 2028 and let's just say democrats control the house, the senate, and the executive.

是的，他们肯定会针对加密货币下手。

Yeah, they're definitely gonna go after crypto.

至少，他们会针对特朗普家族及其在加密货币领域的商业往来。

At minimum, they're gonna go after like the Trump family and their business dealings in crypto.

他们还会针对那些迷因币之类的项目。

They're gonna go after the the meme coins or whatever.

我认为这是他们犯下的一个极其糟糕的战略错误。

I think it's terrible strategic mistake on there.

我也是这么想的。

Me me too.

我觉得非常非常，你知道的，我同意。

I think very very, you know, I I agree.

但当他们说要对比特币征收消费税时，会发生什么？

But what happens when, you know, they say, and and we wanna we wanna impose a, you know, an excise tax on on Bitcoin.

我们打算通过一项法律，为比特币持有者设立一个特殊的边际税率，用以资助全民基本收入之类的项目。

We were gonna pass a law to create a special marginal tax rate for Bitcoiners that is gonna fund the, you know, the UBI and whatever.

然后，你会听到有人敲门，可能是某个中情局的人之类的。

And then, know, you get a knock on the door from some spook, you know, at the at the CIA or whatever.

他们说：是的，你不能碰比特币。

And they're like, yeah, you can't touch Bitcoin.

实际上，国家安全政策制定群体在实质性问题上掌控着国家。

Like, the national security policy making community runs the country on issues of of substance.

这确实是事实。

Like, it's just true.

所以，这种想法——哦，我们需要说服所有民主党人支持比特币——

Well And and so, like, this idea that, like, oh, we need to convince all the Democrats to support Bitcoin.

我认为这虽然可敬且高尚，确实也有很好的理由让持进步观点的人看到比特币的价值，但我认为，赢得胜利的策略不是去说服那些根本不可能被说服、执意要打压比特币的人。

I think that's, like, laudable and noble, and there are really great reasons why somebody from a progressive, you know, worldview might might find value in Bitcoin, but I don't think the winning strategy is to convince people who, you know, just can't be convinced to to not go after Bitcoin.

策略应该是说服那些他们必须服从、无法违抗的人。

The strategy is to convince the people who they report to, who they cannot defy.

而且我认为，如果我们能在军方和国家安全圈层中建立起一种持久共识，认为比特币是美国的关键基础设施，

And, you know, I think that if we create enduring consensus among the military and the and the national security kind of community, that Bitcoin is critical infrastructure for America.

他们不会让党派政治破坏我们大国竞争的局面。

And they're not gonna let, you know, partisan politics undermine our great power competition.

不会的。

There's not.

哦，你这是要引出马蒂·琼斯了。

Oh, you got the Marty Jones coming out.

就像他说的，我明白你的意思，但另一方面，我又不想和这些人打交道。

It is like his is come like you've seen I'm like picking up what you're putting down but also the other side of me is like, don't wanna I don't wanna dance with these people.

是的。

Yeah.

我不喜欢深层政府对

Like, I don't like the deep state's influence on

我也不喜欢。

Neither do I.

美国公共政策的影响。

The United States in public policy.

不。

No.

我所说的这一切都不是规范性的。

None of this is none of what I'm saying is normative.

我不是在支持这一点。

Like, I am not endorsing this.

我并没有在评判这是否应该如此。

I don't I'm not I'm not really weighing in on whether this ought to be the case.

我只是说这是事实。

I'm just saying it is the case.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

不，我同意。

No, I agree.

嗯，再稍微多拉紧一点直的部分。

Well, and like, well, pulling on the straight a little bit more.

我认为我们都应该关注国防部和Anthropic之间目前正在发生的事情，并设法避免比特币重蹈覆辙。

I think we should all look at what's happening between the Department of War and Anthropic right now and try to figure out how to avoid that with Bitcoin.

因为这看起来非常

Because it seems very

好的一点是我们没有首席执行官。

The nice thing is we don't have CEOs.

没有这种视频。

Don't have this video.

永远不可能出现比特币首席执行官泄露的Slack消息，抱怨这抱怨那。

There's never gonna be a leaked Slack message from the CEO of Bitcoin complaining about complaining about things.

对。

No.

但我确实认为，如果国防部特别将某项技术视为关键，他们就会尝试，无论他们是否意识到自己能否成功。

But I do think I mean, if the the Department of War specifically views a piece of technology critical, they will, whether they recognize they can or cannot try.

无论他们是否意识到自己能否真正做到，都会通过某种机制尝试去实现。

Whether they realize they can or cannot actually ultimately do it, they will try via some mechanism or another to Right.

强迫特定行动，谁知道这在比特币中会是什么？是协议开发吗？

Force particular actions, who knows that's within Bitcoin, would that be protocol development?

会是当然。

Would that be Sure.

61.00美元2？

$61.00 2?

那会是什么？

What would it be?

比如

Like

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这是公平的。

I I think that's I think that's fair.

我觉得吧，每当这类问题冒出来时，我总会抛出一个观点——就比如特朗普政府执政初期那会儿，一直有不少私下的议论，说什么美国必须掌控哈希率，得让国内拥有全球绝大多数的哈希率。

I think that the, you know, the argument that I sort of make when this stuff comes up like, for example, there's there's been like sort of this, at least earlier in the Trump administration, there was kind of these whispers and mumblings around, you you know, America needs to dominate hash rate, like we need to have the majority of hash rate in America.

而我当时总会跟大家说，这么做恰恰是在杀鸡取卵，比特币的运行机制根本不允许这样。

And, you know, the argument that I would always make to people is like, well that's exactly how you sort of kill the golden goose, like Bitcoin only works.

只有当它真正做到可信中立时，比特币才能存续。

If it is credibly neutral.

要是每一笔比特币交易都能被外国资产控制办公室（OFAC）随便制裁或者搞出其他类似的限制，那比特币就彻底完了。

If if every single Bitcoin transaction can just be OFAC sanctioned or whatever, then it's over.

道理其实是这样的：不对，实际上博弈论的核心根本不是你想要去控制比特币网络。

It's like, no, you actually the the game theory is not that you wanna control the Bitcoin network.

这套博弈逻辑的本质是，你必须阻止其他任何人掌控比特币网络。

The game theory is that you need to prevent anyone else from controlling the Bitcoin network.

比如说，你需要持有足够的算力，来确保没有其他势力能掌控51%的总算力。

Like, you want enough hash rate that you can make sure no one else can get 51%.

但如果你自己掌控了51%的算力，那这场胜利完全就是得不偿失的惨胜。

But if you get 51%, it's a total pyrrhic victory.

你知道，你现在成了某个本质上毫无价值的东西的国王。

You know, you're you're you're now the king of something that is, you know, like worthless basically.

所以我觉得，对于Anthropic来说，确实存在一个问题。

And so I think with anthropic, you know, there is.

这其实是一个关于控制权的根本性问题：到底是谁在控制。

It was such a fundamental question of like control is someone is controlling.

对，要么是达里奥，要么是政府。

Right, it's either Dario or the government.

因此，这是一个非常零和的问题：我们究竟要把权力交给谁。

And so it's this very kind of like zero sum, like who are we going to give power to.

而比特币并不容易被控制。

And Bitcoin is not really easily controllable.

所以，几乎没有什么操纵杆可供争夺。

And so it's like there's less of a joystick to sort of fight over.

而且我认为，我并不是说比特币完全免疫于深层政府之类的控制企图。

And I and I do think that I'm not saying that Bitcoin is sort of immune from, you know, efforts to control it by like the deep state or whatever.

事实上，这正是中本聪当初所说的，当加文说我要去中情局时，她直接就退出了。

In fact, think that's you know it's kind of exactly what Satoshi said when Gavin was like hey I'm going to the CIA and she just bounces is

我退出了。

like I'm out.

我退出了。

I'm out.

再见。

See you.

我认为当比特币还只有几美元的时候，这个观点更加成立，

I think that was way more true when Bitcoin was like, you know, a few dollars,

才几年历史。

Few years old.

才几年历史。

And a few years old.

当时有人认为，比特币必须尽可能保持低调，就像维基解密事件那样，仿佛中本聪在说：所有当时的比特币支持者都疯了，维基解密在用比特币，而中本聪却说：伙计们，这主意太糟了。

The argument that it needed to, you know, stay under the radar as long as possible, like the whole, you know, sort of WikiLeaks thing of like, this is act like Satoshi being like, know, all the bitcoiners at the time it is so sick, you know, WikiLeaks is using Bitcoin and Satoshi is like, guys, it's a bad idea.

我的意思是，我们不希望在刚亮相时就变成这样，毕竟现在还太早期了。

Like, don't think we want our first kind of debut on the scene to be, you know, to be this it's too nascent.

它太脆弱了。

It's it's too vulnerable.

我昨晚和一位朋友在S&N晚餐时聊到这个，我的回应是——

And I think my response I was talking to somebody at the s and I dinner about this last night and

向中本聪研究所致敬

shout out to Satoshi Nakamoto Institute

向原始的比特币思想库致敬，我们永远活在他们的阴影之下。

shout out the original Bitcoin think tank, you know, will forever be in their shadow.

你能怎么办呢？不过，还是要向皮埃尔、戈德斯坦和他们的团队致敬。

What can you do, but yeah, shout out shout out Pierre and Goldstein and the crew.

有人问，你难道不觉得在这些人面前高调宣传比特币会带来一些风险吗？

You know, somebody was asking like, well, you know, don't you don't you think there's some risk and kind of calling attention to, you know, to Bitcoin among these people?

但问题是，你对比特币非常看涨。

And it's like, okay, well, you're very bullish on Bitcoin.

对吧？

Right?

你觉得比特币会超越黄金吗？

You you think that Bitcoin is gonna flip gold.

你之前在这次对话中提到过，不是你，而是我之前聊的那个人。

You said that earlier in this con not you, but this guy I was talking to you.

他之前在这次对话中说过。

He said that earlier in this conversation.

是的，我确实这么想。

It's like, yeah, I do.

所以我觉得比特币会涨到一百万美元之类的。

So I think Bitcoin's going to a million dollars or whatever.

好吧。

Like, okay.

所以你觉得美国情报机构会无视一个价值三万亿美元的技术网络吗？

So you think the you think that the fucking US intelligence agencies are gonna be unaware of a of a 30,000,000,000,030 trillion dollar asset and and technology network.

我觉得，当谈到加密货币整体时，某个关键节点已经过去了，那艘船已经启航了。

Like, I I think there's a certain point where the conversation about crypto writ large, the guy that ship has just sailed.

而这些掌握权力的人正被要求思考：我们对比特币的战略是什么。

And people in these positions of power are being tasked with thinking about what is our strategy on on Bitcoin going to be.

我不能保证他们一定会得出正确的结论或采取正确的行动，但在我看来，努力向这些人阐述比特币的优势并参与其中，总体上比完全不参与要好得多。

And I can't guarantee that they're gonna come to the right conclusions or do the right things, but it seems obvious to me that making an attempt to inform these people of the arguments for Bitcoin and trying to kind of participate is probably is you know is is on balance better than just, you know, not engaging at all.

你知道，但我得说，我认为比特币接下来的发展阶段确实存在一些严重风险。

You know, I but I mean look I do think that there are serious risks that come from this this next chapter of of of Bitcoin.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

我觉得，我认为有几件事是我视为风险的。

Well, I think I think that the I think there are a couple of things that I see as risks.

其中之一是与托管相关的问题。

One is sort of just related to custody.

我非常担心。

I am very worried.

从技术层面来看，比特币至少在一层网络上无法支持八十亿人使用。

One on a sort of technical level that Bitcoin just at least on, you know, the l one doesn't scale to 8,000,000,000 people.

而且有一种奇怪的迷因，让人们相信比特币无法扩展，尽管我们知道通过二层网络等方案它其实可以，但这种信念反而可能导致人们不愿采用它。

And and there's sort of this weird like, you know, meme it into existence where the belief that Bitcoin does you know, even though we know it does with with, you know, with layer twos and stuff, the sort of belief that Bitcoin doesn't scale causes people to, you know, maybe not adopt it.

我们这会儿有点跑题了。

Let's say, we're kind of rambling.

为了说得更清楚一点，

To me to me to be more clear,

我觉得我们还是会收到YouTube评论问：你们为什么用比特币？

I think we still get YouTube comments like, why are you using Bitcoin?

你只能用来做

You can only do

交易，诸如此类。

transactions, whatever.

但我确实认为，无论是信息误导还是个人偏好，过去五年比特币采用情况所揭示的偏好是：人们并不想自己保管私钥。

But I do think that whether it's misinformation or just preferences of the individual, like the the revealed preference of the last five years of Bitcoin adoption is that people don't want to self custody.

我只是不想这么说，但事实就是如此。

It's just like I hate to say it but it's just true.

早期采用比特币的人是一群非常深思熟虑的人，他们思考的是诸如在日益数字化的世界中如何保护自己的自主权这样的根本问题，而在这个世界里，国家越来越容易监控和干预我的行为，这完全说得通。

And it makes perfect sense that like the early adopters of Bitcoin, who are these, you know, really deep thinkers who are thinking about kind of fundamental questions like how do I preserve my autonomy in an increasingly digital world where, it's it's easier and easier for the state to, monitor and and and alter my behavior.

这些人的想法很自然：是的，我需要把比特币存在冷钱包里，谁也动不了。

Makes perfect sense that these guys are like, yeah, I need Bitcoin in in cold storage that nobody can fuck with.

但当前这一批新用户采用比特币，并不一定是因为这些哲学原因。

But the current cohort of adopters are not drawn to Bitcoin for necessarily those philosophical reasons.

这没关系。

That's fine.

为了让比特币成功，它必须吸引地球上每一个人。

Like for this to work, know, Bitcoin's gonna have to just appeal to, you know, everyone on the planet.

你就像在做贝莱德的营销邮件，说：好了，倒一点进去。

You're doing BlackRock marketing emails saying, alright, pour some over.

倒一点进去。

Pour some in.

所以我觉得这让我有点担心，当有几个托管方控制着大量的比特币时，围绕硬分叉等机制的激励会如何变化。

And so I think that's something I I worry about a bit of like, how do the incentives around hard forks and stuff change when you have a couple of custodians that are controlling like, you know, a ton

掌握着数百万比特币的私钥。

Private keys to millions of Bitcoin.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得ETF就像一把双刃剑，而且这没什么好争论的，它就是会发生的。

It's like I think the ETFs are kind of a double edged sword and and it's there's no debate like, you know, it's like, it's just gonna happen.

你就像李尔王一样，对着风暴大喊大叫，无济于事。

You can't I mean, sort of like king Lear, like yelling at the storm.

这感觉很奇怪，情绪很矛盾，因为这是有史以来最受欢迎的ETF发行。

It's just weird this is weird, like, conflicting emotion because it's the most popular ETF launch of all time.

它同时也正在导致

It's also leading to

它也是有史以来最受欢迎的ETF发行，而且确实如此。

It's also the most popular ETF launch of all time and like yeah.