Feb 2, 2026: Why Retail Stocks Are Too Cheap to Ignore (ChatGPT Ads Change Everything)

大家早上好。

Good morning, everyone.

今天是2月2号，星期一。

It's February the second, Monday.

欢迎收看《七投资直播》。

Welcome to seven Investing Live.

这是我们的一档节目，专门聚焦股市里那些最值得关注的投资机会。

This is our show where we spotlight and put a lot of attention on some of the stock market's most intriguing opportunities.

很高兴你们能来。

We're so glad you're here.

我们每周一、三、五早上10点（东部时间）直播。

We film every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 10AM eastern time.

我是西蒙·埃里克森。

My name is Simon Erickson.

欢迎来到节目。

Welcome to the show.

我是Seven Investing的创始人兼首席执行官，祝大家土拨鼠日快乐。

I'm the founder and CEO of Seven Investing, and happy Groundhog Day to you.

我觉得开场时提一下宾夕法尼亚州庞克苏特尼那只著名的土拨鼠宾克斯很合适，今天早上它确实看到了自己的影子。

I feel like it's only appropriate to start the show by mentioning that Punxsutawney Phil, the famous rat up in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, did in fact see his shadow this morning.

可惜的是，这意味着冬天还要再持续六个星期。

Unfortunately, yes, that means there are going to be six more weeks of winter.

这里有一张宾克斯的照片。

There's a picture of Phil.

你们可以看到它。

You can see him.

它这么干已经有多少个年头了？

He's been doing this for how many decades now.

宾夕法尼亚州那只土拨鼠看到影子了，所以冬天还得再熬六个星期。

Literally the groundhog up in in in Pennsylvania saw a shadow were due for six more weeks of winter.

抱歉啊，各位。

I'm sorry, everyone.

Phil已经做出了决定，但这件事背后仍有一个积极的信号，那就是消费 discretionary 领域，今天早上我们就来聊聊这个板块。

Phil's decision has been made, but there is a bright light that might still come from this and that is a consumer discretionary sector, which is what we're going to be talking about here this morning.

尽管我们可能还要经历一段更冷的天气，但这个板块却正在迅速升温。

Even though we might be due for more cold weather, this is a sector that is truly heating up.

今天我们主要讨论消费 discretionary 这个领域。

We're gonna talk about consumer discretionary.

首先得弄清楚它到底是什么，以及它在标普指数中的位置。

What that means, how it fits into the S and P first and foremost.

其次，我们也要分析一下，为什么过去五年这个板块过得不太顺。

And then also secondly, we're gonna be talking about kind of why has the past five years been difficult for this sector.

然后看看未来推动它发展的关键因素是什么。

And then also looking at the drivers going forward.

那到底什么是消费 discretionary 呢？

But what is consumer discretion?

我们先从最基本的问题开始：这个板块到底指的是什么？

Let's start first and foremost talking about what the sector even means.

它其实说的是那些我们花钱买的东西，但并不是生活必需品，对吧？

It kind of describes the things that we spend money on that we don't necessarily need, right?

这跟生活必需品不一样。

It's not consumer staples.

不是牛奶、鸡蛋、麦片那种，那些是另一个类别。

This is not milk and eggs and cereal, which is its own category.

这是消费者支出中那些不是日常生存所必需的部分，比如那些可能被误认为是土拨鼠的毛绒玩具。

This is the part of the consumer wallet and spend that is not absolutely necessary for daily life, including copy borrow stuffed animals that might be mistaken as groundhogs.

这就是标普500指数里的可选消费板块。

This is consumer discretionary within this S and P 500.

它有自己的特点。

It's kind of got its own thing.

我们可以看看过去几年这个板块的表现图表。

We can look at some of the charts of how this has looked over the last couple of years.

首先，这张图对比了标普500的整体表现（黄色线）和专门追踪可选消费板块的子指数。

First and foremost, here is one that looks at the performance of the S and P 500, they're in yellow versus the sub segment of the S and P that dedicated for consumer discretionary.

同样是按市值加权的指数，这些公司通常具有很强的周期性。

Again, market cap weighted index, this is the companies that tend to be very cyclical in nature.

看这条绿线，当市场表现强劲、整体上涨时，可选消费板块往往表现得比大盘更好。

Look at the green line, look at how in times where the market is strong and outperforming consumer discretionary tends to do better than the broader market.

但一旦市场放缓，它就会变得更加波动，实际上会比其他板块跌得更明显。

But then when the market slows down, it tends to be a little bit more volatile, actually falls compared to the rest of the market there.

我们再看一个展示成分股的图表，如果能调出来的话。

And we've got one more that shows the constituents, if we can pull this one up.

当我们说到可选消费时，到底指的是哪些行业？

What are we talking about when we describe consumer discretionary?

这些通常是零售商，有时候是汽车制造商，或者涉及家居消费的公司。

Well, these are the kind of companies that are that are retailers or sometimes automakers or home purchases.

比如亚马逊、特斯拉、家得宝、劳氏、TJ马克斯、麦当劳这些餐饮企业。

You know, the companies like the Amazon's of the world, Tesla Home Depot and Lowe's, TJ Maxx, McDonald's, you know, the restaurants.

这些就是当你想出门放松、给家里添置东西、换车，或者在线购物时，愿意花钱的地方。

These are the things where you can put your work, your money to work when you don't when you wanna get out of the house or you wanna buy something for the house or you're looking to upgrade your vehicle or purchase something online.

这就是所谓的可选消费领域的大致含义。

This is broadly what consumer discretionary refers to.

总的来说，这个板块正如我们之前提到的，波动性非常强。

And as a whole, this sector, as we mentioned, can be very, very cyclical.

事实上，过去五年对整个可选消费板块来说都不太好过。

In fact, the last five years have been kind of a difficult time for the consumer discretionary sector as a whole.

这里我们还有另一张图表，来自波士顿咨询公司。

We've got another chart here from the Boston Consulting Group.

挺有意思的，就在这儿，你瞧见了没？

It's kind of neat, there's some here it is right there.

你可以看到这些圆圈，咱们可以聊聊股东总回报。

You can kind of see the circles and we can talk about total shareholder return.

这是波士顿咨询公司每年年底发布的一份很棒的报告，专门分析股东回报的驱动因素。

This is a great report that the Boston Consulting Group publishes every year at the end of the year, which talks about total, the drivers of shareholder shareholder return, right?

它会考察股市各个板块，看看哪些因素让某些股票表现优于大盘。

Looks at all the sectors of the stock market says, okay, what are the drivers that are that are putting good stocks, you know, ahead of the market?

标普500中表现最好的成分股是哪些？

What are the best performing constituents in the S and P 500?

整个市场中表现最好的板块是哪些？

What are the best performing sectors of the broader market?

那原因是什么呢？

And then why?

是什么推动了它们的回报？

What is driving those returns of them?

如果你看这张图的上半部分，这是来自2025年价值创造者指数的数据。

And so if you look at the top part of this graph, this is from the value creators index from 2025.

你可以看到2020年到2024年这五年间的中位数总股东回报率。

You can see the median five year total shareholder return between the year 2020 and 2024.

顶部的Y轴就是这个数据。

That is the Y axis at the top there.

再看X轴从左到右，你能发现前一个五年期间的中位数总股东回报率是多少。

And then if we look from left to right on the X axis there, we can see what is the median five year total shareholder return for the previous five years, right?

所以，如果一家公司在2015到2019年表现特别好，但接下来的2020到2024年增速明显放缓，那它就会出现在这张图的右下角，对吧？

So if you had something that was doing very well in the five years between 2015 and 2019, that then slowed down in the next five years between 2020 and 2024, that would be represented in the bottom right of this graphic, right?

这些股票的股东总回报率下降了。

The total shareholder returns slowed down stocks.

前五年表现非常出色，后五年却明显慢了下来。

It did really well in the first five years and then slowed down the next five.

你看医疗科技、媒体与出版、制药这些行业都是这样。

You can see medical technology, media and publishing, pharmaceuticals.

这些行业最近都出现了增长放缓的趋势。

This is kind of the sectors that are slowing down here recently.

反过来，最近五年表现突出的，跟以往的平均水平相比，是石油天然气、金属、建筑这类重资产行业，它们最近确实表现不错。

And then conversely, the ones that have done very well in the last five years, as opposed to their typical returns that fires you before that you see kind of oil and gas, metals, construction, a lot of these hard asset industries that have done quite well here recently.

还有中间这一类，特别是科技硬件、软件和服务，我们对这种情况并不意外。

And then you kinda got the ones in the middle, especially if they're tech hardware and software and services, we're not surprised by this.

我们一直看到人工智能和软件公司，尤其是数据中心对高性能芯片和算力的需求，不仅在过去五年持续强劲，早在之前的五年就已经表现得非常好了。

We've seen AI and software companies and especially the data center, the need for high performance chips and computing continue to do very well, not only in the previous five years, but then also in the the five years before that as well.

但我特别想提一下零售业，它正好处在中间位置。

But I draw the attention to retail, which is kind of right there in the middle.

你能看到，这是一个规模很大的行业，对吧？

You you can kind of see in there, you can see it's a large industry, right?

作为标普500指数的一部分，零售业的市值高达数万亿美元。

This is a multi trillion dollar industry as representing the S and P 500.

相比之下，最近五年它的中位数年化回报率比前五年略低一些。

And it's a little bit slower here in terms of the median five year return of the last five years, as opposed to the five years before that.

零售业通常的年化回报率是12%，但最近这段时间稍微放缓了。

Retail typically is 12% annual return for this sector and it's slowed down a little bit here in the recent time frame.

现在大概只有10%左右，甚至不到10%，2020到2024年间的年化回报率大概是9.8%。

Maybe you call it about a 10% overall return, a little bit less than 10%, think it's 9.8% annual return between 2020 and 2024.

不过，如果从长期来看标普500的整体回报，零售业依然表现不错。

Even though as as a whole, if you look back kind of in the long term returns of the S and P 500, this is a good sector.

从长期趋势来看，这个行业的表现其实往往优于标普500整体水平。

This is a sector that actually tends to outperform the broader S and P 500 when you look at long periods of time.

那为什么过去五年零售业表现不佳呢？

And so why has retail underperformed in the last five years?

这其实一点都不让人意外。

This is not surprising to anyone.

零售行业，包括可选消费领域，这几年确实挺难的。

We've had a difficult go for the retail sector, consumer discretionary included.

这些行业都受到了疫情的影响——人们外出就餐少了，不去快时尚餐厅了，甚至都不再光顾实体店了。

These are the things that had been impacted by COVID, where people might not be going out to eat quite as often, might not be going out to fast casual restaurants, might not even be going to bricks and mortar retailers anymore.

另外，2022年也特别艰难，美联储连续七次加息，对吧？

And in addition to that, we also had 2022 was a very difficult year where the fed raised interest rates seven times in a row, right?

这会抑制消费者的支出，也会减少企业的投入。

That might cut back on consumer spending, that might cut down on business spending.

再加上最近，国际关税不断加码，所有从美国进口的商品价格都被推高了。

And then on top of that here, recently we've had international tariffs, certainly pushing up the price of goods for anything that is imported into The United States.

一旦价格上升，人们自然会减少购买，这对可选消费和零售行业肯定会有影响。

When prices go up, people tend to buy fewer things and that could certainly impact consumer discretionary and the retail industry.

所以，我们不仅要看消费 discretionary 具体指什么，还要弄清楚它为什么在过去五年表现不佳。

So there's a look at kind of looking at not only what is consumer discretionary refer to, but why has it underperformed in the last five years?

这算是为理解这个板块当前的状况提供一些背景。

This is kind of a little bit of a backdrop on what's going on in this sector.

但展望未来，股市本质上始终是一个面向未来的机制。

But now looking forward, the stock market of course is always a forward looking machine.

我们不喜欢在市场情绪高涨到顶点时进场。

We don't like to buy at peak enthusiasm.

我们不想在预期过高、估值太贵的时候买入。

We don't wanna buy when expectations are super high and valuations are super expensive.

我坚信低点买入才是明智之举。

I am a big believer in buy low.

我们应该寻找那些被市场冷落、暂时不受青睐的板块。

You wanna look for favors that are out of sectors that are that are excuse me, that are out of favor.

然后在推动它们重新回暖的利好因素出现时，果断买入。

And then buy them when there are drivers that are gonna be pushing them back into favor.

对于消费 discretionary 这类周期性行业，我认为未来五年有很多因素正在汇聚，推动它成为表现突出的板块。

And certainly for a cyclical sector like consumer discretionary, there's a lot of things that are aligning for this outperformer over the next five years, in my opinion.

在讲具体驱动因素之前，我再提一点：过去七次投资建议里，有五次都集中在面向消费者的公司。

One of which is, well, before I get into the drivers, I will say one more thing on this, which is the last five recommendations of seven investings have been consumer facing companies.

它们并不全都是消费 discretionary 类的企业。

They've not all necessarily been consumer discretionary companies.

但如果把范围扩大到广告、面向消费者的软件和零售商，连续五个月我都在关注这个领域，因为我确信它是最有潜力迎来反弹的板块之一。

But if we broaden that to include things like advertising or consumer facing software and retailers, five months in a row, I've been focused on this sector because I do believe it is one of the best and most poised for a turnaround.

我们来聊聊 GPT。

Let's talk about GPT for a moment here.

这可是个重大突破。

This a massive deal.

目前，已经有将近十亿用户在使用 OpenAI 提供的免费版 ChatGPT。

Almost a billion users now are using the free version of ChatGPT that's available from OpenAI.

但大部分时候，我们只是在免费使用它。

And for the most part, we've only been using this for free.

我们一直用的是免费版。

We've been using the free version.

有五千万人，抱歉，是五千万人左右，占用户总数的大约5%，在为GPT-4的Pro版每月支付200美元。

There are 20,000,000 of us, excuse me, 50,000,000 of us, about 5% of the user base that are paying the $200 a month for the ProP plan for GP2.

但总的来说，这一直是个免费服务。

But for the most part, this has been a free service.

你打开仪表盘，用界面提问，它就会直接给你回复。

You go and you use the dashboard, you use interface, you ask questions, it just returns them to you.

大约两周前，我们收到消息，说GPT即将在界面里加入广告。

And we've gotten an announcement here about two weeks ago that GPT is going to start including advertising into the interface.

OpenAI现在表示，他们已经有了十亿用户，就像当年的谷歌，还有之后的Facebook那样。

OpenAI is now saying, yes, we've got a billion users similar to Google did before, to what Facebook did after them.

一旦产品有了十亿用户，迟早得想办法变现。

When you get a billion user product, you wanna start monetizing it over time.

除了推出一个新层级的服务，叫GPT GO，定价每月8美元，他们还会继续保留一个免费版本，只不过会在对话界面里直接插入广告。

And so in addition to having a new feat, a new a new tiered plan called GPT GO, which should be offered for $8 a month in US dollars, they're also going to be offering another free version as well, which will include ads directly into the GPT prompt.

这是他们做赞助的一个例子，看看赞助商可能会怎么呈现。

Here's an example of how they're kind of sponsoring it, sponsoring it or looking at thinking the sponsor is gonna look.

比如，如果你没法看到你想要的视频，你可能会说：‘给我推荐几个简单的墨西哥菜，今晚聚会用。’

In this example, if you're not actually able to see the video you're asking for, you know, hey, I want some simple Mexican dish ideas for my dinner party.

你会看到一些推荐内容，而在最底下，突然就冒出一瓶辣酱。

You can kinda see some of the ideas and at the very bottom, boom, you've got hot sauce.

这些是和你搜索内容相配套的产品推荐。

You've got some ideas of products that might complement the search that you're looking for.

这和谷歌的做法几乎一模一样。

Very, very similar to Google right here.

当然，和搜索网页不同，你不是在输入关键词，而是用自然对话的方式直接问GPT。

Of course, a little bit of a different command prompt as opposed to searching web pages, and then in getting results based on what you're looking for, you're actually asking directly in a conversational tone for GPT.

但以后，广告就会直接插进GPT的回复里了。

But we're gonna start seeing advertisements placed into that GPT prompt.

这为什么重要？

Why is this important?

因为显然，那些投放广告的公司主要是消费类企业和零售商。

Well, because of course the companies that are gonna be placing those ads are gonna be the consumer discretionary companies and the retailers.

而现在，他们有了前所未有的机会，以极低的转化成本高效推销产品或服务，毕竟市场上选择太多了。

And now more than ever, they've got an opportunity to get low conversion costs and sell very efficiently whatever products or services they're selling because there's so many options available out there.

对吧？

Right?

这种趋势最早是从网页开始的，那时候大家开始开发应用，并在应用里插入广告。

This kind of move first to the web where you started building apps and you would place ads within the apps.

后来又转向了联网电视的程序化广告，像The Trade Desk这样的平台，你就能看到视频广告了。

Then we would go programmatic in the connected TV, things like The Trade Desk, you know, where you'd actually see video ads out there.

当然，我们早就习惯了那些在互联网上到处追踪我们的横幅广告。

Of course, we're already familiar with banner ads that are following us around the Internet as it was before.

现在，我们又迎来了一种全新的平台和形式——广告可以直接嵌入GPT，面向全球数十亿用户，新增用户超过十亿。

And then now we've got a new platform, a new form factor for for these ads to be, you know, embedded within GPT for billions of people, over a billion new people globally.

这对零售商来说简直是好事，能把用户获取成本压到最低，直接提升利润。

This is really good if you're a retailer, you wanna get your acquisition costs for people buying things as low as possible that goes right through into your income statement.

你现在能选择的选项越来越多了。

You do have more and more options that are available for you.

所以我觉得，那些在全球有业务、供应链整合得好的公司，相比去年的关税风波，2026年的运营效率会更高，至少比2025年强。

And so I think that the companies that are appealing to people all around the world, international presence, have got integrated supply chains that probably over last year's tariff fiasco are becoming more efficient in 2026, at least compared to 2025.

现在，获取新客户的成本也更低了。

And then now you've got a lower cost of acquisition of new customers.

我觉得这对面向消费者的行业来说是件好事。

I think this is great for consumer facing sectors.

那我们来看看一些消费 discretionary 领域的公司，说说我在2026年看到的趋势。

And so let's look at some of these companies that are in consumer discretionary and to look at kind of what I see happening in 2026.

这正是我今天想重点聊的内容。

And this is the meat of the conversation I'd like to have here today.

顺便说一下，这些观点都来自我们的‘七年投资回顾’。

By the way, this comes directly from our seven investing year in review.

顺带提一下这个内容。

Quick promotion for that.

这是我们十二月中旬发布的内容。

This is something we published in the middle of December.

我们梳理了七投资平台上有明确推荐的全部17个行业板块，其中消费 discretionary 就是其中之一。

We looked at all 17 of the market sectors that we have active recommendations on the seven investing store card and consumer discretionary one of those 17.

这算是对2025年发生的事做个回顾，再看看2026年可能会有什么变化。

But kind of a review, if you will, of what happened in 2025 and then what is kind of in store for 2026.

同时，我们也重新审视了平台评分卡上所有推荐的坚定程度。

And then what is our conviction for all of the rec the recommendations we have on our scorecard?

我真心建议你去看看。

I'd really encourage you to check this out.

这只是全年回顾中的一个部分。

This is one segment of the entire year and review.

你可以完整观看整个内容。

You can see the whole thing.

去7investing.com/subscribe注册，前七天完全免费。

If you go to 7investing.com slash subscribe, get your first seven days totally free.

你可以看到所有高级内容，包括这一部分。

You can see all the premium content including this.

如果你在2026年投资任何市场领域，这份资料会非常有帮助。

If you're investing in 2026 in any market sector, this could be a very useful resource.

我们来看看可选消费品这个板块。

But let's look at consumer discretionary.

简单回顾一下这些要点。

Quick review of some of these bullet points.

对吧？

Right?

2025年，美国消费者一直不太景气，原因我们刚才都提到了。

American consumer has been in a funk in 2025 for all the reasons we just mentioned.

像耐克、露露柠檬这样的大品牌零售商，已经连续几个季度出现销售下滑。

I think that big brand retailers like Nike or Lululemon have had multiple quarters of negative comps.

销售额同比负增长，利润率也在下降。

Negative year over year sales growth and declining profit margins.

但你可以看到，很多公司都在任命新的首席执行官。

But you can see a lot of these companies that are hiring new CEOs.

他们迫切希望扭转局面，而且2025年过得特别艰难，所以我觉得趋势正在向上。

They're eager for a turnaround, and they also had a really difficult year in 2025, which means I think the arrow is pointing up.

到了2026年，同比来看，情况肯定会好很多。

It's gonna be a better year in terms of a year over year comparisons here in 2026.

再说，如果你拥有像Crocs这样国际知名的牌子，按历史自由现金流算才值六倍，那这些公司简直便宜得让人没法忽视。

And then, of course, if you got a if you got an internationally recognized brand, like a company like Crocs and you're selling for six times free cash flow on a trailing basis, it could be that some of these companies are just too cheap out there to ignore.

对吧？

Right?

当你给一家公司定出这么低的估值时，其实等于在赌它会倒闭，完全看不到任何复苏的可能。

At some point, if you're pricing a company a a very, very low valuation multiple, you're pricing it as though it's gonna go out of business, as though there's no return.

我说的就是那些只靠商场或实体店生存、没跟上线上转型的企业。

You know, these are the companies like, you know, the companies that just had a a presence in malls or bricks and mortar retailers that didn't transition online.

有很多广受欢迎的国际品牌，我觉得它们的热度一点都没减。

There's a lot of well loved international brands that I think are very popular.

他们明年就能翻身，现在股价却低得离谱。

They're gonna turn things around next year and are just selling way too cheap.

餐饮和可选消费领域还包括星巴克、多米诺披萨、Chipotle 和 Cava 这些品牌。

The restaurants, the consumer, discretionary budget also includes things like Starbucks, things like Domino's Pizza, things like Chipotle and Cava Group.

很多这类公司去年客流量确实下滑了，但利润率已经非常可观。

A lot of these again saw saw lower diner traffic last year, but have got excellent profit margins already.

尽管宏观环境充满挑战，它们依然源源不断地产生自由现金流，并通过分红和股票回购回馈股东。

And even though it's been a challenging marker mark macro, they're they're pumping out free cash flow and they're returning it to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

股价跌到这么低的时候，正是回购股票的好时机。

Great time to buy back your stock when it's selling really cheap.

还有像 DraftKings 和 Duolingo 这样的公司。

And then you've got some other companies like DraftKings, Duolingo.

它们是软件公司，行业正在发生变化，但全球仍有上亿用户在使用类似的产品。

These are software companies out there, that are have changes going on in their industries, but they're still, you know, more than a billion users globally can be using products that are similar to these.

事实上，这两家公司目前各自都已经拥有超过一亿的活跃用户或付费用户。

In fact, both of these companies have already got more than a 100,000,000 users that are that are either using or paying for them right now.

尽管市场对这类公司还持观望态度，但它们的基本面依然非常强劲。

The fundamental results still look very good even though there's a lot of hesitation from the market on companies like these.

最后，特斯拉还是那个特斯拉。

And last but not least, Tesla continues to be Tesla.

不管你喜不喜欢马斯克，他确实在世界上做了一些了不起的事。

Whether you love Elon Musk or you hate him, he has done some amazing things in the world.

他是各个行业的颠覆者。

He is a disruptor of all market sectors.

特斯拉也在其中。

Tesla included within that.

我们看到特斯拉已经停产了一些车型。

We've seen Tesla discontinuing some of its models.

他们给马斯克制定了新的薪酬方案，确保他继续为这家公司创造惊人成就。

We've seen a new pay package for Elon that is gonna keep him motivated to do amazing things with this business.

未来几年，随着自动驾驶汽车在美国越来越多城市获得认可，特斯拉在机器人出租车网络上的进展值得期待。

It will be interesting to see the progress that Tesla continues to make on the robotaxi network within the next few years as autonomous vehicles gain acceptance in more and more cities across The United States.

所以特斯拉也是个值得关注的公司，尤其是在消费者支出方面。

So Tesla's another one to keep an eye on their consumer discretion.

这可以说是整个市场细分中的一个缩影，涉及一些参与其中的企业。

This is kind of a vignette, if you will, a subsegment of this market sector and some of the companies that are participating in this.

而且，这些公司里有些可能根本不在我的投资推荐名单上，要么是价格太低，要么就是目前顺风顺水得太过明显。

And, again, some of these companies may or may not even be seven investing recommendations that I think are either too cheap or have got too many tailwinds behind them right now.

这让我想到今天想说的最后一点：我们昨天刚发布了2026年2月的正式投资建议。

And this brings me to the final point that I'd like to make on today's show, which is that we just released our February twenty twenty sixth official recommendation yesterday.

就在土拨鼠日那天，菲爾看到自己的影子之前，我们照例在每月第一天发布了这份推荐。

Right before Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, we put out our official recommendation on the first of the month as we do on every single month out there.

这个新晋企业不属于那些老牌平台、零售商或传统消费类公司。

This is an up and comer that's not the legacy platforms or retailers or consumer facing companies out there.

我对他们正在做的事非常看好。

This is a new one that I'm very excited about what they're doing.

我觉得他们的管理团队非常出色，现在正迅速推进，在这个原本被传统巨头主导的领域里闯出一片天地。

I think they've got a really good leadership team in place, and they're making a lot of progress right now in a market sector that is kind of dominated in their sector at least by kind of the old guard and the legacy companies.

所以在当前消费疲软的时期，2025年市场显得有点冷清，这倒挺值得观察的。

And so it's gonna be interesting to see as we're in this consumer lull, you know, things are a little bit slower here in 2025.

通常这种公司股价都偏高，但正因为消费板块正处于周期性低谷，今年二月我们反而有机会以低价入手这家创新企业。

Typically you have to pay a premium for a company like this, but because again, of the cyclical downturn of the consumer sector, I think we're getting a great opportunity to buy an innovator at an inexpensive valuation here in February 2026.

如果你想了解具体是哪只股票，可以去 7investing.com/recommendations 看看。

So you can check that one out at 7investing.com/recommendations if you actually wanna see the pick itself.

你可以免费试用七天，浏览所有高级内容，了解我为什么对零售和可选消费领域这么看好——就像我们在这场直播里聊的那样。

This is where you can go and get started for seven days free of charge, see all the premium content, see why I'm so excited about the retail sector and consumer discretionary as we described here on this livestream.

希瑟，今天节目时间不长。

Heather, know, quick show today.

如果你对零售、可选消费，或者特斯拉有任何问题，随时问我，想聊哪儿都行。

I do wanna bring you in for a couple of questions if you have any about, you know, retail, about consumer discretionary, about Tesla, anywhere you wanna go.

这个板块范围挺广的，里面有不少不同类型的公司。

This is kind of a broad market sector that's got a lot of different companies in it.

当然可以。

Sure, of course.

我第一个问题是关于ChatGPT的广告，看起来那个广告挺有针对性的。

I guess my first question would be with the ChatGPT ads, are they going to be that one looked like it was pretty focused.

先是展示了一个食谱，然后是辣酱。

It was a recipe and then it was a hot sauce.

他们的计划是根据用户的搜索内容来精准投放吗？

Is the plan there to be focused on what people are searching for?

这样的话，ChatGPT能不能对这类广告收取比普通广告更高的费用？

And does that mean that that ChatGPT can charge higher amounts for those ads versus just general ads?

是的，问得好。

Yeah, good question.

他们目前表示，希望做到不偏不倚。

They've said right now that they want to be not biased, right?

以前谷歌总是被诟病，把流量优先推给出价最高的广告主。

There's always been as many issues about Google directing traffic to the ones that were paying the best rates.

那其实跟你自己的自然搜索结果关系不大，对吧？

And that wasn't really your own organic search, right?

它的设计初衷并不是另一个带有算法偏见的搜索引擎。

It's not meant to be another search engine that has inherent biases in the algorithms.

它的目标是理解你提出的问题或正在进行的搜索，然后在旁边展示一个不打扰人的广告。

It's meant to understand the question you are asking, or the search you are conducting, and then put this non obtrusive ad on the side out there.

至于定价，我也不太清楚会怎么安排，但总的来说，广告行业已经从按展示次数收费，慢慢转向按点击或互动收费了。

I don't know in terms of the pricing, how it's going to look, you know, we typically have seen a change in advertising broadly from, you know, the cost per ad for impressions shifting broadly to the cost per ad for clicks or for interactions.

挺值得看看他们最终会怎么赚钱的。

It'll be interesting to see how they monetize it.

是单纯先放上去，看看点击率怎么样，还是真想搞清楚有多少人会点进去、互动多少，这些都还不确定。

If it's just a matter of, you know, hey, we're just gonna put them up and see how this goes in terms of an impression rate, or they're gonna actually try to get some interaction and some details on how many people are clicking on them out there.

现在还不好说，但接下来两三个月，我们大概就能看到更多相关数据了。

To be determined, but certainly over the next two or three months, we'll get some more data about those things.

这说得很有道理。

That makes a lot of sense.

除了你提到的，还有哪些低调的消费 discretionary 类公司是你在关注的？不是推荐，就是单纯在旁观察，现在挺感兴趣的。

Outside your pick, obviously, what are some top quiet consumer discretionary companies that you're watching, not recommending, but are kind of just watching on the sidelines and are interested in right now?

我觉得挺有意思的一个是Adobe。

I mean, one that I think is interesting, you know, is Adobe.

Adobe更多是企业级软件，但也具备那种稳定的持续性收入。

You know, Adobe is more of an enterprise software, but it also is kind of that, you know, recurring revenue.

无论是个人用户还是公司里的员工，都在大量使用它的产品。

It's people using a lot of its individual users or even people that are in workplaces.

有人觉得它完了，说AI都能生成图片了，这玩意儿没戏了，

I mean, are writing that off as dead because it's an AI disrupted company, you know, you can make images anywhere.

就是这类想法。

I mean, things like that.

但现在看，它的股价好像太低了，毕竟企业客户还是会继续用它。

It's gonna be seems like it's just too cheap right now, but it's enterprise based is still gonna be working with them.

另外，从广告业务的角度来看，虽然跟消费者 discretionary 预算关系有点远，

And then on the advertising side of it too, a little bit tangential perhaps again to the consumer and discretionary budgets.

这不就是The Trade Desk吗？

Is this a Trade Desk, right?

The Trade Desk 主要做程序化广告，主要在电视流媒体上，但也在整个互联网上都有覆盖。

The Trade Desk is something that is facilitating programmatic advertising, mostly on TV streaming, but also all across the internet too.

只要广告投放量能回升，广告预算自然也会跟着恢复。

If you can get ad volumes back up, ad budgets start going back up again.

2025年的时候，他们的广告量稍微低了一点。

They were a little bit low in 2025.

但如果2026年开始回暖，广告量一上来，他们的抽成比例就会变得非常可观。

But if that starts picking up in 2026, you start getting the volumes, you start getting a really good take rate for that.

这部分收入会很快直接反映到利润表上。

That flows right to the bottom line really quickly.

这只股票现在特别不被看好。

It's a stock that's really out of favor right now.

你要是看The Trade Desk的股价走势，2025年之前每年都表现得特别好，结果去年突然暴跌。

If you look at the Trade Desk stock chart, it was fantastic, in all years up to 2025 and then it just collapsed last year.

这就能说明公司完蛋了吗？难道真的连一点生机都没有了？

Does that mean the company is dead and we're just going to pronounce it, there's no heart rate anymore on this one?

还是说我们现在只是处于一个周期性的低谷期？

Or is it just mean that we're in a cyclical downturn right now?

我觉得这种情况可能会非常有意思。

I think something like that could be very interesting.

还有那些零售商，就像我们之前提到的，像露露柠檬、耐克、Crocs 这类直接面向消费者的品牌。

And then the retailers, the level retailers like we mentioned in the previous slide, the ones that are directly, the Lululemon's, the Nike's, the Crocs.

这些公司在经济低迷时，通常都能像其他公司一样挺过难关。

I mean, these companies tend to ride it out right off the storm like everybody else does during the downturns.

但它们的品牌足够强大，一旦竞争对手倒下，它们就能反弹得更强劲。

But then they've got strong enough brands that they bounce back stronger when their competitors maybe fold.

所以我觉得，那些让人喜爱的品牌，也是我们值得关注的一个方向。

And so I think the lovable brands are kind of another one that we should be paying attention to.

对我而言，Adobe 是个特别有意思的例子，说来也巧，我平时就用它做创意和视频编辑。

Adobe is a really interesting one for me because surprise, I use it as a creative and video editor.

关于 AI 对 Adobe 的冲击，我注意到一个挺有意思的现象：其实 Adobe 在 AI 方面已经取得了不少进展。

And one of the funny things I find about the AI disruption comments about Adobe, going to get into this, is that Adobe has actually made a lot of strides in AI within the system.

但Adobe的AI全都围绕着如何让创作者的生活更轻松、更高效，让你能更快地完成想做的事，而不是让AI取代你成为创作者。

But Adobe's AI has all been focused on how to make creatives lives better and faster so you can do what you want to do but more quickly, but still be a creative instead of letting the AI be the creative.

当然，有些人会说，确实也有那种‘帮我做个logo’的功能，Adobe也确实能这么做。

I mean, some will argue and there definitely are things where you're like, make me this logo and Adobe will let you do that.

但与此同时，它还加入了超强的音频编辑功能和各种工具，让视频和图像编辑变得快多了。

But at the same time, they have these amazing sound editing abilities and all sorts of tools that have been added that make video editing and image editing so much faster.

以前做蒙版得花老长时间，一笔一笔地描边，现在点一下就自动完成了。

Masking used to spend forever, like going in, penciling out somebody, and now you just click and it does it.

所以我觉得，当人们说AI正在摧毁他们的时候，其实忽略了AI让创作者变得强大得多，而很多免费工具和替代品根本跟不上这种提升。

So I do think it's a really interesting thing when people say that they're being destroyed by AI when AI has made them so much more powerful in ways that a lot of the free ones are not able to keep up with, like free tools and free versions and the alternatives.

所以接下来会怎样，真挺值得观察的，我觉得其他免费版本和竞争对手迟早也会赶上。

So it'll be interesting to see how that all plays out because I do think other free versions and competitors will get there.

但就目前来说，我是绝对不会放弃我的Adobe授权的。

But right now, like, I wouldn't give up my Adobe license.

对。

Mhmm.

我还在继续付费使用。

I'm still paying for it.

确实如此。

It is.

你知道，Acrobat 依然是 PDF 领域的标准。

You know, it's one of those in Acrobat is still the standard.

对吧？

Right?

我们平时用 Acrobat 处理 PDF 文件，几乎是家常便饭。

Like, you we use Acrobat for PDFs all the time.

就算你不是公司统一采购，只是个人用户，也一样离不开它。

I mean, you can just as individual, even as individuals that are not getting it, you know, on a corporate license or things like that.

‘消费者自主消费’这个词，正好卡在企业软件、零售、广告这些领域的交叉点上。

I mean, kind of consumer discretionary is this broad term that's right in the middle of this Venn diagram that touches enterprise software and retail and advertising and all these other things.

但现在，比以往任何时候都更让人觉得，大家可能会因为 AI 太方便了，就干脆放弃这些用了多年的工具。

But it's just right now more than any other time, think that there is a pessimistic outlook that these things that people have been using for years, they're just gonna stop using them because of AI, because it's so much easier to do out there.

但目前为止我们还没看到这种情况。

And we haven't seen that yet.

以Adobe为例，我们确实没看到它有这种迹象。

We certainly have not seen that with Adobe as one example.

它的基本面依然强劲。

The fundamentals still look strong.

用户留存率一直很高，利润率也相当出色。

They've kept their retention high and their margins are fantastic.

不过，两三年后情况会不会变呢？

Now, does that maybe change in two or three years?

有可能吧。

Yeah, maybe.

如果你花十到十二倍的自由现金流去买一家公司，而它每赚一美元就能转化出四毛钱的现金流，

But if you're only paying, call it 10 or 12 times free cash flow for a company that's converting 40¢ of every dollar into cash flow already.

那你真得留意一下，也许它的受冲击程度没市场定价所暗示的那么严重。

I mean, you've got to pay attention that maybe it's not going to be as disrupted as badly as the market is pricing a company like that.

现在。

Now.

有人觉得因为AI，人们就会彻底停止做某些事，但在我看来，人们只是会用AI改变做事的方式。

It's an interesting idea that people are just going to stop doing things because of AI when it's to me, people are going to change how they do things with AI.

这一点似乎被很多人忽略了。

And that seems to be a very missed point.

我可能说错了，但这种对世界的看法确实很有意思。

And I could be wrong, but it's a very fascinating view of the world.

品牌和习惯很难被打破。

Brands and habits are hard to break.

我认为这正是消费 discretionary 领域的核心所在。

And I think that's the heart of consumer discretionary at its core.

这个板块其实挺有意思的。

Again, kind of a neat sector.

我觉得我们有必要多关注一下。

I think it's one that we need to be paying attention to.

我们总是喜欢聊Palantir、NVIDIA这些高大上的明星公司。

We always want to talk about the Palantirs and the Nvidias and sexy high flyer companies out there.

这个领域一点都不酷，早就被人弃之如敝履了。

This is unsexy sector that has just been left for dead.

在我看来，明年会有一些很强的推动力，让这个板块迎来上涨。

I think that in my opinion, there some pretty good drivers that are going to push this one higher next year.

所以，再给消费 discretionary 加个码吧——快结束这期节目了，我觉得明年这个板块完全有望反弹，二月的推荐也印证了这一点。

So another, another promotion there for consumer discretionary, you know, as we kind of wrap up this show, I do think this is a sector that's primed for a comeback next year and the February 2026 recommendation shows you that.

接下来这个月肯定会很精彩。

So this is gonna be a fun month coming up.

今天刚过完土拨鼠日，二月马上就到了。

As we finish up Groundhog Day here today, we've got February on the calendar coming up.

周三我们还会再请一次埃米特·萨维奇做客。

We've got another one with Emmett Savage on Wednesday.

他这次要聊的又是另一家很有意思的科技公司。

He's gonna be talking about yet another cool technology company.

这个公司叫Computer Modeling Group。

This one's called Computer Modeling Group.

很多公司可能根本没注意到它。

Well, that might be off the radar of a lot of companies.

我们周三会聊一聊这家公司。

We're gonna talk about that one on Wednesday.

下一周，我们会和一位芯片股投资者聊聊半导体。

The following week, we're gonna be talking about semiconductors with chip stock investor.

到时候会有一场挺有意思的讨论。

Gonna be having a neat, discussion on that.

下周五，我们还会和前Seven投资顾问马尼莎·萨米聊聊生物技术的创新。

We're gonna talk about biotech innovation with former Seven Investing Advisor, Manisha Sami, next Friday as well.

这个月晚些时候，我们还会采访约翰·拉坦、杰夫·费舍尔和埃里克·布莱克尔。

We're going to go on and talk with John Ratante, Jeff Fisher, and Eric Bleecker later this month as well.

节目里请来的嘉宾都很不错。

Some really good guests on the program.

我很期待在二月的《Seven Investing Live》节目中邀请他们所有人。

I'm excited to have all of them here on Seven Investing Live in February.

在这之前，今天是2月2号，大家都知道了。

So until that time, you know, today is February 2.

再次介绍一下，我是西蒙·埃里克森。

Again, my name is Simon Erickson.

如果你想知道我们所有的优质内容，欢迎去7investing.com/订阅。

I'd encourage you to check out 7investing.com slash subscribe if you'd like to see all of our premium content.

meanwhile，祝你这一周过得愉快。

In the meantime, have a great week.

彼此多关照，注意安全。

Be kind to one each to one another and be safe.

我们周三再见。

We'll see you again on Wednesday.