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硅谷把人工智能吹得天花乱坠,但在爱荷华州却没人当回事。
AI is overhyped in Silicon Valley, but underhyped in Iowa.
其实软件只是把原本存在纸上的东西,先搬到本地的绿色屏幕电脑上,让它们能被访问。
I would actually argue software just kind of took things that were stored in paper format, and then they made them available first on prem via green screen computers.
但活儿还是得人来干。
But people still had to do the work.
我从来都没忘记自己看到的那些事。
I never forgot what I saw.
Yelp上评分最高的医生,每个月要花
The number one great doctor on Yelp spending
两百个小时填表格。
two hundred hours a month on paperwork.
这些模型训练用的数据量大得惊人,模型也庞大,可它们根本不会做这些实际工作。
The models are trained on so much data, they're so large, and yet they actually don't really know how to do any of this work.
一开始,真正做这些事的其实是人类。
Initially, we were actually the humans on the loop.
我们算是把自己的问题给自动化解决了。
We kind of automated away our own problems.
每家初创公司
The battle between every startup
和老牌企业之间的竞争,归根结底就是看初创公司能不能在老牌企业实现创新之前,先打通渠道。
and incumbent comes down to whether the startup hits the distribution, before the incumbent hits the innovation.
我们过去找他们说,嘿,我们其实已经开发出了这样一个智能体,能直接帮你省下几十个小时的工作量。
We come by and we say, hey, we actually have built this agent that can provide you already with tens of hours of labor.
他们接受得特别快。
They then adopt it very quick.
他们把我们当成能帮他们打理诊所的人。
They see us as someone they break in to actually run the practice for them.
有位医生说过一句特别棒的话。
There was a great quote from Doctor.
关医生说过, Lassie 不是要取代人类,而是让大家从身兼数职的重担中解脱出来。
Kwan about you guys, which is that Lassie isn't replacing humans, but freeing them from wearing so many hats.
并不是说人工智能会抢走大家的工作。
It's not like, oh, AI is gonna take the jobs.
很多时候,你根本找不到合适的人。
In many cases, you can't find somebody.
你们是怎么决定先做什么、卖给谁的?
How are you prioritizing what you build, who you sell to?
有没有可能,给牙医用的Lassie,反而能让给物理治疗师用的Lassie变得更强大?
Is there a world where Lassie for dentists makes Lassie for physical therapists better?
这个
The
最终目标是
end goal here is that
人工智能不只是改变了软件的开发方式。
AI isn't just changing how software is built.
它正在改变软件本身的功能。
It's changing what software does.
几十年来,软件主要就是存储信息。
For decades, software mostly stored information.
如今,AI 越来越能直接完成这些工作了。
Today, AI can increasingly perform the work itself.
在这期节目中,亚历克斯·兰佩尔和奥利维亚·摩尔采访了 Lassie 的联合创始人斯泰恩·佩勒和弗雷德里克·伦肯,聊聊他们如何打造 AI 代理,自动化医疗行业的行政工作,比如保险理赔和患者付款。
In this episode, Alex Rampell and Olivia Moore speak with Lassie cofounders Steijn Pelle and Fr Frederic Renken about building AI agents that automate administrative work for health care from insurance billing to patient payments.
他们谈到,为什么小企业可能是 AI 最大的机会之一,以及打造能自主运行的软件需要什么,还讨论了未来企业软件的衡量标准,可能不再看功能多少,而要看它能帮人省下多少活儿。
They discuss why small businesses may be one of AI's biggest opportunities and what it takes to build software that operates autonomously and why the future of enterprise software may be measured less by features and more by the amount of work it can take off people's plates.
欢迎你们,谢谢你们来参加。
So welcome, and thank you for joining us.
谢谢你们邀请我们。
Thank you for inviting us.
很期待
Excited to
能来到这里。
be here.
也许我们先从基础说起。
Maybe we'll start with the basics.
这家公司最初源于你和你的牙医——全医生的一次对话。
So, this whole company started with a conversation with you and your own dentist, doctor Quan.
他跟你说了什么,让你决定辞掉在Robinhood的工作,亲自帮他处理付款事务?
What did he tell you that made you decide to quit your tech job at Robinhood and go process payments for him by hand?
是的。
Yeah.
我从来没想过,我的美国梦会是这样一幅景象。
I did not know that my American dream would look like this.
挺有意思的。
It was interesting.
那时候我在Robinhood工作,来这个国家就是为了创业。
Like, I was at Robinhood at the time, and I came to this country to start a company.
六年里,我从阿姆斯特丹搬到了硅谷,一直在找一个值得解决的心病。
So after six years, I moved from Amsterdam to Silicon Valley, I was looking for a heart problem to solve.
然后是我的医生,quan医生。
And then my doctor, Doctor.
我是他的病人,每年去看他两次,就像看牙医那样,我知道我在找一个心脏方面的问题。
Kwan, I was a patient there, so I saw him twice a year, as you do with a dentist, Knew that I was looking for a heart problem.
他问我:你想看看我是怎么打理生意的吗?
And he said, do you wanna see how I run my business?
我说:当然想。
And I said, absolutely.
他带我走到后面,我永远忘不了当时看到的情景。
And he walked me to the back, and I never forgot what I saw there.
一位在Yelp上评分最高的医生,每个月却要花两百个小时处理文书和琐碎事务。
A small business owner that is the number one rated doctor on Yelp spending two hundred hours a month on paperwork and busy work.
他得亲自手填理赔单,因为他找不到人帮他向病人收费。
So submitting claims by hand, and he had to stick around himself because he couldn't find people to bill the patients.
我当时就想,天啊。
So I'm like, wow.
这太让人惊讶了。
It's fascinating.
这是几年前的事了,我当时以为这种问题早就解决了。
This is a couple of years ago, so I thought that this was a solved problem.
因为七十年代我妈妈在医院工作,她就是干这个的。
Because in the seventies my mom worked in hospital, and that's what she did.
她提着一袋袋现金去银行,手工处理每笔付款,但那时候这问题也没解决,所以这事特别引起我的注意。
She brought bags of cash to the bank and then processed payments by hand, but it wasn't a solved problem here, so that's why this piqued my interest.
不过我得问一句,他当时给你这个提议的时候,你是不是有点懵?
Though I have to ask, when he gave you this offer, were you like, was it that kind of reclined?
他能分辨出你是点头还是摇头吗?要是你嘴张着,牙钻还在里面……
Could he actually process your answer as yes versus no if your mouth was open and the drills were in
那你怎么回应?
your mouth?
或者怎么说
Or how
后来
how did
情况怎么样?
that go down?
嗯,到现在为止我还没长过蛀牙,所以你知道的,还没轮到钻牙那一步。
Well, up until now, don't have cavities, so, you know, there was no drilling happening yet.
所以,你知道的,谢天谢地
So, you know, knock on
木头。
wood.
检查。
Examination.
没错。
Exactly.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
清洁。
Cleaning.
没错。
Exactly.
是的。
Yeah.
没有。
No.
之后他把我拉到一边。
He took me aside after that.
好的。
Okay.
因为他知道我在找心脏方面的问题。
Because he knew that I was, like, looking for this heart problem.
我当时到处走走看看。
I was roaming around.
那次就诊之后,他给我解释了到底发生了什么。
And then after that appointment, he showed me kind of, like, what was going on.
我当时就想,会不会就是他。
And then I thought maybe it's him.
对吧?
Right?
但这对我来说说不通,因为他的评价一直很好。
But it didn't really make sense to me because he was very well rated.
他用的都是最新的医疗技术。
He used all these modern technologies.
所以我们开始去咨询其他医生,想着也许这位关医生只是个例外。
So then we started talking to other doctors, like, because maybe this doctor Guan was just an anomaly.
但后来我在宾夕法尼亚州斯克兰顿的一位消化科医生那里也看到了同样的情况。
But then I also worked for a gastroenterologist in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and we saw the same there.
我当时就想,等等。
I'm like, wait.
你们全是手工操作的?
You're doing this all by hand?
于是我们才意识到,等等。
So then we figured out, wait.
有成千上万的小企业,真的是完全手工在做这些事。
There are, like, hundreds of thousands of these small businesses that literally do this all by hand.
这倒是个挺有意思的问题。
That will be quite a fascinating problem to solve.
我们知道这肯定很难,但正想找这样的挑战。
We knew it was going to be a hard problem, but we were kind of looking for that.
是的。
Yeah.
拉西的故事对我来说特别特别独特,因为你们在正式推出产品之前,花了好几个月,甚至好几年,直接在客户办公室里做测试。
The Lassie story is so unique to me because you both spent months, if not years, before kind of fully releasing the product, like literally in the office of the customers.
是的。
Yeah.
你们是怎么说服他们让你进入公司内部,深入了解业务甚至查看财务数据的?
How did you convince them to let you in and to kind of look through the heart of the business and get into the financials?
对。
Yeah.
这事儿有点怪。
It's a little weird.
对吧?
Right?
就好比,你好。
It's like, hello.
我在罗宾汉公司负责增长部门的推荐项目。
I work at Robin Hood on Growth on the referral program.
我能在这里找工作吗?
Can I get a job here?
顺便说一下,弗雷德里克之前在Superhuman做产品。
And by the way, Frederick worked at Superhuman on product.
我们能帮你们处理账单,接管财务吗?
Can we do the billing for you and take over the finances?
我觉得那就是我们意识到事情有大希望的第一个信号。
I I think that was the first sign that we were onto something big.
因为让我们没想到的是,当我们去问那些医生时——我们先跟每个人都聊了,比如医生。
Because to our surprise, all these doctors when we asked them so we first talked to all of them, like Doctor.
科瓦姆,因为大家都喜欢说自己的烦心事。
Kwam, because everybody likes to talk about their problems.
当这些医生跟我们聊了好几个小时,我们就明白了,这确实是他们真正头疼的问题。
And when all these doctors started talking to us for hours, we knew that, okay, this is a real problem they have.
这不是那种可有可无的锦上添花,而是让他们夜不能寐的难题。
This is not some vitamin that maybe it's nice to solve that for them, but this is something that keeps them up at night.
这甚至让他们想放弃这份工作,说:我当初进入这个行业,是因为热爱和专业,而我就是想好好照顾病人。
It makes them almost quit their job and say, I got into this industry because of my passion and craft, in this case, because I wanna take care of patients.
那是我们第一次发现,这些人根本不会说‘你来我这儿工作吧’,因为你完全没有财务方面的经验。
So that was the first time that these people were not no chance that you can come work for me because you don't have any experience running the finances.
那HIPAA合规性和数据安全呢?你们怎么能接触这么多敏感信息?
What about HIPAA and security reasons that you have access to all this information?
所以,第一个明显的信号是,这些人真的说:‘行,医生全说,你就来这儿,朝九晚五上班就行。’
So I think the first sign to us that these people said, yes, doctor Quan said, just come and sit here nine to five.
你完全可以胜任这份工作。
You can do the job.
沙医生在宾夕法尼亚州的斯克兰顿。
Doctor Shah was in Scranton, Pennsylvania.
他让我们坐在办公桌后面,说:‘你需要什么权限,尽管用,就像我儿子一样。’
He sat us down behind the desk and said, you can have access to anything you need to have access to or a teacher like my son.
那一刻我们就意识到,这个问题真的严重到没人解决过。
So that was the first sign that this was very broken and not a solved problem.
然后我们直觉就来了:这可能真是个机会,因为这确实是人们迫切想找解决方案的痛点。
And then I think that triggered our intuition for, okay, we might be onto something because this is a real pain that people are desperately looking for a solution.
从技术角度看,弗雷德里克,这件事是从2020年开始的,那时候能做成的事情跟现在完全不一样。
And from a technical perspective, so Frederick, this has started in 2020 and so much was different then in terms of what was even possible to build.
那你的产品开发流程这些年有什么变化吗?
Like, how has your product building process changed over time?
当初你觉得能实现的事,跟现在你认为可能做到的事,差别大吗?
How is what you thought possible then different from what you think is possible now?
我们创业之初就一直执着于自动化,想让整个业务自己运转起来。
I would say when we started the business, we were always obsessed with automating and putting the business on autopilot.
这一点到现在也没变。
So that hasn't really changed.
但那时候的模型还很弱,尤其是推理型模型,根本还没成型。
Back then, the models weren't that good though, especially reasoning models didn't really exist in that form.
你要想自动化任何工作,核心就是两件事:一是获取工作的上下文,比如在诊所里,你得能访问所有历史数据、病历这些信息;二是得有能执行任务的工具。
But if you think about what it takes to automate any job, you're really looking at getting context on the work, which in the case of a doctor office is basically you need to have access to all the historical data, the patient records, that sort of stuff, and then you need tools to do the work.
不管是人还是AI代理,道理都一样。
You know, this is true if you're a human in the office or if you're an agent.
所以我们一开始先搭建了上下文层和工具层,那时候的智能层还很弱,但对第一个任务来说,其实也没那么需要高智商——最基础的自动化根本用不上多少推理能力。
And so we started building the context layer and building the tools, and it's just that the intelligence layer wasn't that intelligent, but for the first job, it wasn't that necessary, like the most basic kind of automation didn't require that much reasoning.
后来模型变得越来越强,我们就顺势迎来了巨大的推动力,因为上下文和工具早就准备好了,模型一进步,我们直接替换掉原来的智能模块,产品就自然而然地越来越聪明。
But then as the models got really good, we had this kind of huge tailwind because we had all this context already built, all the tools already built, and we could kind of, as the models got better, just replace our intelligence and the product would just get smarter over time.
从这个角度说,我们确实有点运气,但我认为核心理念从来没变过。
So in that way, we got a little lucky, but I think the core vision hasn't really changed at all.
一直以来,我们的目标都是让工作自动完成,而不是造出一堆让人自己去用的工具。
It was always about automating the work and not building tools for them that they would have to use.
随着模型不断进步,我们越来越看到软件在取代人力劳动,亚历克斯,你可是最早提出并大力主张这一点的人。
I feel like as the models have improved, we are more and more seeing software do the job of labor, which, Alex, I would say you're the first to argue and famously argue that would be the case.
我想知道,当你观察这些公司时,是怎么看待这个问题的?这又如何影响了你对Lassie的底层思考?
Curious how you think about that when you look at companies and maybe how it played into, like, the thesis around Lassie.
是的。
Yeah.
我之前做过一场完整的演讲,讲的是软件的起源。
Well, so I've given this whole presentation on the origin of software.
其实就是把一个文件柜的内容搬进数据库里
It was basically take a filing cabinet and put
放进数据库里,是的。
it into a database Mhmm.
如果要选一个时间点作为起点,那就是这家叫Sabre Systems的公司。
And kind of pick the time equals zero moment for that with this company, the Sabre Systems.
没错。
Yeah.
那时候航空公司都靠文件柜来保存预订信息。
Because airlines would just keep reservations and filing cabinets.
Sabre Systems是IBM和美国航空的合资项目。
Sabre Systems was a joint project between IBM and American Airlines.
所以Sabre才拼成两个a。
That's why Sabre is spelled with two a's.
对的。
Mhmm.
萨伯系统。
Sabre.
但后来这种模式迅速推广到了各个领域。
But then this kind of took wind everywhere else.
比如人力资源的档案柜,后来变成了PeopleSoft这样的系统。
So, like, there are HR filing cabinets, and that became something like PeopleSoft.
法律领域的档案柜,演变成了LexisNexis等一系列产品。
There are legal filing cabinets, and that became all of these LexisNexis products.
会计领域的档案柜,发展成了QuickBooks,后来又有了NetSuite。
There are accounting filing cabinets, and that became QuickBooks, and that became Net Suite.
软件的起源就是这样来的。
So that was the origin of software.
软件其实就是把原本存在纸面上的东西数字化,最早是通过绿色屏幕的本地计算机实现的,因为这样订票和改票效率高多了——再也不用橡皮擦来修改了,这一切都始于萨伯系统。
So software just kind of took things that were stored in paper format, and then they made them available first on prem via green screen computers because that was a lot more efficient to book an airline ticket and change it if you didn't have to use an eraser anymore starting with Sabre.
但活儿还是得人来干。
But people still had to do the work.
所以我倒觉得,软件并没有让世界变得高效多少,因为这些软件只是把人力资源这块搬到了线上。
So I would actually argue that the world didn't get that much more efficient with software because all that software did was, like, take HR.
比如,PeopleSoft 和 Workday 真的让 HR 部门更高效了吗?
Like, did PeopleSoft and then Workday make HR departments more efficient?
我觉得没有,因为1950年和2000年,同一家公司里做 HR 的人数量基本没变。
Like, I don't think so because the same number of people worked in HR for the exact same size company in 1950 as probably 2000.
以前是靠施泰因和弗雷德里克守着文件柜,防止别人偷看 HR 档案;现在呢,得靠 IT 部门和首席安全官,防止别人黑进系统或者窃取电子档案。
And instead of using filing cabinets that are guarded by Steijn and Frederick, you know, making sure that nobody breaks into the HR files, now you have an IT department and a CSO to make sure nobody hacks into the IT files or the the HR filing cabinet.
所以本质上,效率并没有提升。
So nothing really got more efficient.
我知道我这话有点夸张,但软件现在能做的,是能修改这些‘电子档案柜’了。
I know I'm somewhat exaggerating for effect here, but what you can now do with software is it can edit the filing cabinet.
对吧?
Right?
它不再只是个傻傻的存储工具了。
It's no longer just the dumb storage.
其实这是对这些流程进行智能化的改进。
It's actually like the smart implementation of changes against those things.
比如在人力资源方面,可以做个背景调查。
So if it's HR, let's do a background check.
对吧?
Right?
或者做入职流程,给新人讲解福利政策。
Or let's do an onboarding or let's explain the benefits to this person.
如果是财务,那财务报表该怎么处理?
If it's accounting, what do you do with the financial statements?
假设我是个牙医,发现一堆账单 overdue,打开 QuickBooks 一看。
Imagine I'm a dentist, and I see I have all these overdue invoices, and I can look up in QuickBooks.
那我该怎么做?
What do I do?
我可能会打电话过去,说:麻烦付一下款。
Well, I might wanna call and say, please pay me.
文件柜真正该做的,是主动帮你处理事情,而不只是提供信息。
Like, that's what the filing cabinet should be doing, not just giving you the information.
结果发现,实际要做的工作量,比信息存储本身大了几个数量级。
So it just turns out that the work is orders of magnitude bigger than the storage of information that the work is done on.
这一直都是我们的核心观点。
So that's been the thesis.
所以技术得赶上来,才能真正把这些事办成。
And you need the technology to catch up so it can actually do it.
对。
Mhmm.
到了2023年,你发现预测下一个词的技术还远远不够,没法真正深入地帮你做事——而这恰恰是AI该干的。
Because in 2023, it's like, you know, next word prediction wasn't really good at, like, going in, which is basically what AI is.
是的。
Yeah.
那时候的技术还差得远,根本没法用来跑诊所或者做背景调查。
That was not good enough to go say, I'm gonna go run my practice or do background checks.
我知道,我会用统计推断来做背景调查,确保弗雷德里克以前没犯过罪,我再雇他来公司。
I know I'm gonna have statistical inference play out, and that's how I'm gonna do a background check and make sure that Frederick didn't commit any crimes before I go hire him for my company.
不,不可能。
Like, no.
但现在技术已经足够成熟了,这极大地扩展了市场空间。
But now things have gotten good enough, and that just massively expands the market size.
想想金融科技,它之所以能大幅扩大许多非金融领域的市场,是因为现在能把金融产品和非金融产品打包在一起。
And if you think about fintech, fintech massively expanded the size of many nonfinancial markets because now you could you could bundle in financial products with nonfinancial products.
我举个最典型的例子,就是Toast。
And what I mean by that is, like, my favorite example of this is Toast.
我知道我们之前聊过很多次这个。
I know you and I have talked about this a bunch.
聊得不少了。
Plenty.
但其实,Toast在1985年本来也是可以出现的。
But, like, Toast could have existed in 1985.
对。
Mhmm.
那时候,人人都在用IBM PC。
Like, you know, everybody had an IBM PC.
用起来还挺顺手的。
They worked pretty well.
微软的DOS系统也运行得不错。
Microsoft DOS worked pretty well.
那为什么1985年没有出现一家专门做餐厅软件的公司呢?
Why didn't why wasn't there a restaurant software company in 1985?
首先,那东西太难用了。
Well, number one, it was too hard to use.
其次,还有客户获取成本和生命周期价值不匹配的问题。
But then number two is you have this CAC to LTV issue.
你想想,有哪家年收入五百万美元的餐厅会愿意花十万美金去买个MS-DOS的软件,就为了管预订、发工资、给厨房显示个菜单,好让厨师能更快做出你的汉堡?
Because could you get a big restaurant that grosses $5,000,000 a year to spend a $100,000 on an MS DOS software product for keeping reservations and paying wait staff and, you know, having a little menu that showed up for the cook so they can, you know, make your hamburger more quickly or same thing.
没人愿意为这个付
Nobody would pay a
十万美元买这个。
$100,000 for that.
但如果你把支付处理打包进去,实际上就是在收十万美元的费用。
But if you bundle in payment processing, you're effectively charging a $100,000 for that.
对吧?
Right?
因为你可能能拿到百分之二的抽成。
Because maybe you get a 2% vague.
所以金融科技通过这种捆绑方式,让软件市场变得大得多。
So fintech made the market much, much bigger for software Mhmm.
就是因为这种捆绑效应。
Because of this bundling effect.
但这跟现在软件直接取代人力相比,就小巫见大巫了,毕竟金融科技只是让市场稍微大了一点。
And that pales in comparison to now software doing the job of labor because it's like, yeah, fintech made it a little bit bigger.
但现在,我们不再只是充当数据的管道或存储库,也不再只是通过捆绑金融处理服务来一点点加价,而是可以直接完成工作,并为工作本身收费。
But now instead of just being a dump pipe for data or a dump storage of data and instead of just, like, charging incrementally more by bundling in, you know, financial processing, Now we can do work, and we can charge for work.
我们可以用比人类更便宜、更好的方式收费,但我认为,这样说反而低估了它的潜力,因为在很多情况下,你根本找不到愿意做这事的人。
And we can charge for work in a way that is cheaper than humans, better than humans, but I think both of those sell the opportunity short because in many cases, you can't even find a human.
所以,关于Lassie发布或者我们联合宣布的那件事——你们那支超棒的视频,最让我印象深刻的故事是……
So the the the best and funnest story of the the Lassie introduction or like our announcement that we made together with you, or your announcement, your amazing video.
这真是一次很棒的合作。
It was a great collaboration.
我第一位牙医,希望他能听到这个播客,他叫罗纳德·斯卢普。
So my first dentist, hopefully he's listening to this podcast, his name is Ronald Sloop.
我父母刚搬去佛罗里达时,他是他们认识的第一个朋友。
It was my parents', like, first friend when they moved to Florida.
我出生在佛罗里达。
I'm from Florida.
是的。
Yeah.
他退休前是牙医。
He retired as a dentist.
他是不是
Was he
荷兰人?
a Dutch guy?
他说话听起来特别像荷兰人。
He sounds very Dutch the
不是,不是。
last No.
你知道的,阿什肯纳兹犹太人。
You know, Ashkenazi Jew.
对。
Yeah.
明白吗?
Know?
我家人也是来自波兰、乌克兰那边的什么地方。
Somewhere in Poland, Ukraine, whatever my family's from too.
所以,你懂的。
So, you know?
但他现在大概七十五到八十岁了,他退休的一部分原因,是失去了那个帮他管账和处理所有事务的关键女人。
But, you know, he's probably 75, 80 years old right now, but part of why he retired was he lost his, like, you know, key woman that did the books and everything else.
他说:这事儿我真的搞不定了。
He's like, I can't deal with this anymore.
我不干了。
I quit.
是的。
Yeah.
然后他把诊所卖给了他的助手,从此就彻底退出牙科行业了。
And then he sold his practice to his junior practitioner, and now he's out of the dentistry business.
所以他看到了这条公告。
So he saw this announcement.
他直呼天哪。
He's like, oh my god.
这太棒了。
This is amazing.
我可不是为了讨好你才这么说,是他自己打电话告诉我这事的,因为他看到了新闻稿。
And I'm not talking this up because you're he's like, my dad called me about this because he saw the press release.
他都说,哇塞。
He's like, wow.
我和斯利普医生聊过这事。
I talked to doctor Sleep about this.
他说,要是早有这个,他根本不会退休。
And he said that if this had been around, he wouldn't have retired.
所以他现在啥也不干,就在南加州打打高尔夫什么的。
This is why he's now doing nothing with his life, just playing golf or something in Southern California.
他好像是从佛罗里达搬过去的。
He moved there from Florida apparently.
因为根本招不到合适的人。
Because it's just too hard to hire the person.
所以不是什么AI要抢走工作那么简单。
So, it's not like, oh, AI is gonna take the jobs.
很多时候,你根本找不到人。
In many cases, you can't find somebody.
这一点很多人都没意识到。
This is the part that people don't realize.
或者你找不到人,但你可以想象,世上每个人都会愿意花一美元买的东西,可生产它的成本却要一百美元。
Or you can't find somebody, but there's like a imagine that there is something that every human on earth would pay a dollar for, but the cost manufacturing that thing is a $100.
这就叫市场失灵。
You just have a market failure.
我把它叫做供需平衡点右边的那部分——就是经济学入门课里画的那个图的右边。
And I kind of called this everything to the right of the supply demand equilibrium point on like an Econ 101 graph.
比如说,为什么全美国的牙科诊所里,都找不到一个荷兰籍的前台呢?
So it's like, well, everybody would have somebody like, why isn't there a Dutch receptionist at every dentist in America?
对
Mhmm.
因为可能真有个人只会说荷兰语。
Because, you know, there might be a guy that only speaks Dutch Yeah.
他出现了。
That shows up.
是的
Yeah.
那为什么不雇个会说荷兰语的人呢?
Like, why not hire somebody who speaks Dutch?
但问题是,一个只会说荷兰语的斯泰因出现在诊所的概率只有百分之一。
Well, because there's only a one in a 100 chance that a Steijn that only speaks Dutch shows up at their office.
对
Yeah.
还得给这个人付四万欧元。
Gonna have to pay that person €40,000.
这根本说不通啊。
Like, it just doesn't make sense.
但如果这是免费的,或者只花一美元,那每个牙科前台都会配一个会说荷兰语的同事。
But if it were free or if it cost a dollar, then every dental receptionist would have a Dutch counterpart.
对吧?
Right?
你明白吧?
You know?
类似这样的情况。
Stuff like that.
所以不管怎样,就是这样。
So it's just it's anyway, so that Yeah.
一旦把人力加进来,市场就会急剧扩大,因为软件市场本身其实已经不小了。
That's where the the market just expands massively once you throw in labor because it's like you have this tiny, tiny market for software, which, by way, is not that tiny.
那可是上万亿美元的规模。
It's like a trillion dollars.
围绕这一点,金融交易的规模可不小。
Concentrically around that, have, like, you know, big on financial transactions.
那还要更大。
That's even bigger.
所以维萨公司的市值才这么高。
That's why Visa has a very big market cap.
白的可以存在,也可以存在。
White can exist or can exist.
对。
Yeah.
再往外扩一圈,那规模真是大了几个数量级。
But then you go the the the concentric circle around that is just like you know, it really is orders of magnitude bigger.
是的。
Yeah.
我们也能看到这一点。
And we also see that.
仅在美国,就有大约16万家牙科诊所,每年在行政开支上花费约20万美元。
So, like, the the there are about, like, 160,000 dental practices in The US alone, and, like, they spend roughly $200,000 a year on, like, administrative costs.
有趣的是,因为我们已经服务了数百家,他们现在能轻松找到合适的人手。
And then the interesting part is that because we serve hundreds already, like, they can find people.
亚历克斯提到的,我们每天都会遇到这种情况——明明是哈佛毕业的医生,却要熬到半夜处理文书,搞得他们越来越不喜欢自己的工作。
So, like, what Alex, like, shared is we come across that literally every day that, like, it is the doctor themselves with their Harvard degree that sits there till, like, midnight, and it makes them, like, not like their job anymore.
我觉得这特别有意思,因为这些小企业主最想做的,就是专心照顾病人。
So I think that's that's very interesting because, like, these small business owners, they just wanna mainly spend time on their patients.
他们根本不想花时间在行政事务上,更别提去应付贝蒂了。
They don't really wanna spend time on the administration part, let alone, like, working with Betty.
而在这里,情况是威尔德。
And then in this case, it's Wilder.
他们根本找不到贝蒂。
They can't find Betty.
所以我们出现了,很多人其实也很惊讶:这不是应该有很多人持怀疑态度吗?
So we come by, and I think a lot of people are also surprised that but isn't there a lot of skepticism?
根本不是这么回事。
It's like, no.
这些人真的苦不堪言,正如亚历克斯所说,他们快撑不下去了,至少对这部分工作已经彻底厌倦了。
These people are in real pain, and they are, to Alex's point, about to quit or just like they hate their job, at least this part of the job.
所以我们上门去说:嘿。
So we come by and we say, hey.
我们其实开发了一个助手,已经能替他们节省几十个小时的工作量,你可以去问问朋友或者你所在的学习小组,是不是真有这回事,或者自己上网查一查,发现确实如此。
We actually have built this agent that can provide you already with tens of hours of labor and ask your friends or the people in your study club, like, if this is real, and then or they Google it, and they see that this is real.
然后他们就会很快接受这个工具。
They then adopt it, like, very quick.
看到这种情况,真的特别有意思。
So it's it's super interesting to see.
而且说实话,这个商业模式之所以成立,是因为它直接从人力预算里省下了钱。
And then, indeed, like, on the why that's an interesting business because this is indeed it comes out of the p and l on the on the on the labor budget.
我们现在对这个只做每月三十小时工作的初级助手,收费已经是五位数了,而像斯卢普医生这样的,每月其实有两百个小时的工作量等着处理。
So, like, we are already charging 5 figures for kind of, like, this first agent that only does thirty hours of labor a month, and there's two hundred hours of labors to be done for doctor Sloop.
这其实特别有意思,他们把我们当成能真正替他们打理诊所的人,但另一方面,这也挺复杂的,因为一旦软件的要求变成了这样:
And and that's, like, really interesting, like, to see that, like, they see us as someone they break in to, like, actually run the practice for them, which is also, on the other hand, complicated to do because if all of a sudden the requirement for software becomes, hey.
这不是给医生Sloop用的工具,
This is not a tool that I give Doctor.
而是给医生Sloop,
Sloop, and then Doctor.
而医生Sloop本人还得在线上参与。
Sloop is still on the line.
事实上,很多AI公司现在还是这样,
In fact, one could argue a lot of AI companies are still like that.
背后总有个人在把控,最终决定什么功能能上线的是软件工程师,
There is a human in the loop that ultimately the software engineers decide what's get deployed.
但我们不能这么干,
Like, we can't do that.
所以我们必须开发一个自主代理。
So we needed to build an agent.
所以我们花了好几年时间,才把准确性这块做扎实。
That's why it took us years that, like, on the side of correctness.
因为你要是接手了保险理赔对账、跟病人沟通收费这些事,系统就必须得靠谱。
Because, like, if you take over a job reconciling all the insurance payments, interacting with the patient to kind of, like, bill, it needs to, like, work.
这在技术上难度特别大,但也正因如此,从技术角度看才格外有意思——你得构建真正能独立运行、完全不用人工干预的自主系统。
So that was, like, technically, like, hard to do, which also makes this super interesting from a technology perspective because you all of a sudden need to build autonomous systems that run on its own and don't have a human in the loop.
它能替医生打理整个诊所的运营。
It runs the business for Doctor.
Sloop 就是这么做的,这让它在技术上特别有挑战性。
Sloop, which makes it technically super interesting.
是的。
Yeah.
医生Kwan 曾经说过一句特别贴切的话。
There was a a great quote from Doctor.
他说,Lassie 并不是要取代人类,而是帮他们从一身兼任的重担中解脱出来。
Kwan about you guys, which is that Lassie isn't replacing humans, but like freeing them from wearing so many hats.
你们的宣传视频里有一段他谈到,现在能亲自指导孩子踢足球,还能去看他们的比赛,这真是太棒了。
And your launch video had a clip of him talking about how he can actually coach his kids soccer teams now and go to his their games, which is amazing.
对。
Mhmm.
从希望有这样的改变,到愿意真正采用人工智能、让系统自动处理诊所的付款,再到做得如此出色,以至于大部分增长都来自口碑,这中间还有很大差距。
I there's a gap between wanting that and being willing to adopt AI and actually, you know, having it run payments in a practice and in fact doing it so well that most of your growth is word-of-mouth.
所以是牙医们互相推荐这个产品。
So it's dentists recommending it to other dentists.
确实如此。
They do.
你们当初是怎么设计这个技术架构的?
How did you approach the technical build process for that?
你们是怎么把产品做到接近98%自动化程度的?
What was it like getting the product to I think you guys are at 98% automation.
能跟我们说说这个过程吗?
Like, walk us through kind of that that journey.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得关键是我们亲自去诊所里实际操作过。
I think a big part of it was us actually spending the time in offices doing the work ourselves.
如果我们不了解这份工作到底怎么做,根本不可能做出这么好用的产品。
I don't think we could have built built a product that works as well as it does if we if we didn't know how to do the job.
是的。
Yeah.
另一个因素,我们之前提过,中小企业和大企业最大的区别在于,中小企业里根本没人来用这些工具。
I think another part, we already kind of talked about it, but I think a huge difference between SMBs in general and and enterprises is that in SMBs, there's nobody to to use the tools.
你就算开发出一个工具,也没人坐在那儿去用它。
Like, can you can build a tool, but there's nobody sitting there that that's gonna use it.
所以我们就直接上手干。
So Go for
晚上再回头复盘。
a loop at night.
得有人去
Needs to go
用这个工具。
into the tool.
我们从一开始就注重这一点,你知道的,起初我们其实就是那个‘在循环中的人’。
We, from the very beginning, we we focused on, you know, initially we were actually the the humans in the loop.
所以我们接手了所有的工作,心想,好吧,我们就替你把活儿干了,顺便把自己的问题也给自动化解决了。
So we we kind of took over all of the work and we were like, you know, we'll we'll just do this work for you and we and we kind of automated away our own problems.
后来到了某个阶段,我们的自动化程度已经足够高,让我们觉得可以放心把剩下的工作交回给办公室团队。
And then at at some point, you know, we we got to a high enough level of automation that that we felt we felt comfortable handing it back back over to the the remainder back over to the office.
现在,如果我们因为某些原因搞不定,这种情况其实很少见,但万一遇到不熟悉的案例,我们会从员工那里学习经验。
And I think now, you know, we learn obviously when when we can't do something for for some reason, is pretty rare, but but say we say we we don't know how to do a certain case, we learn from what what the staff tells us.
另外,我们也在考虑,我觉得在把任何产品推向市场之前,都应该达到一个足够高的自动化水平。
And we also think about, I think, you know, like, we we wanna get to, a sufficient level of automation across any product to before we sell it.
对我们来说,这个比例大概是95%以上,但不一定是100%。我觉得我们不会等一个产品做到100%完美了,才去开发下一个。
So, you know, for us, I think that's, like, 95 plus say, but not necessarily a 100, like I don't think we're going to wait until we get into a to a 100 with one product and then do the next one.
我们更倾向于从整体上思考业务,看看有多少部分能用软件自动化,有多少人力工作可以被软件取代。
I think the we really think about the business more like as a whole, like how much of the business can we can we automate, and how much of the labor can we can we do with with software.
只要能接手的工作,我们就立刻接手,然后马上转向下一个任务。
And as as soon as we can take over a job, we take it over, and then we move over to the next one.
随着时间推移,我们会慢慢掌握那些少见的特殊情况。
And then over time, we'll just learn learn the long tail of cases.
是的。
Yeah.
对企业来说,这点其实也没那么重要。
For a business, it also doesn't matter that much.
对吧?
Right?
比如说,我们来做个医生吧。
Like if let's make Doctor.
让Sloop在这档播客里火一把。
Sloop famous in this podcast.
展开剩余字幕(还有 480 条)
他一定会喜欢的。
Let's He's gonna love.
是的。
Yeah.
如果医生。
If Doctor.
Sloop说他可以成为客户,那我们或许该聊聊其他人,比如
Sloop said he can become a customer, so maybe we should talk about like someone else that's
还在活跃的。
still active.
我们可以重新激活他。
We could reactivate him.
我去重新激活他。
Will reactivate him.
可能会回来。
Might come Yeah.
这事儿听起来真让人难过。
That's how it's sad to be sounded.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
真糟心。
Dang.
这是B线故事。
That's the series b story.
我们把麦克医生从退休状态请回来了。
We got doctor Mac out of a stoop out of retirement.
我们曾经
We had
牙医紧缺的问题,现在解决了。
a dental shortage, now we don't.
我们需要
We need
所有这些重新出山的牙医。
all these dentists that come out of retirement.
是的。
Yeah.
我们有了
We got
多了一亿美国人能享受到优质的牙科服务。
100,000,000 more people in The States that get good dental care.
对于企业主来说,如果每周还剩下一点点需要处理的理赔,那也还行。
The it's fine for, like, a business owner if there is a tiny sliver left of claims that need to be touched every week.
对吧?
Right?
所以,你可以这样看:他们活在一种噩梦里,每周得更新两百封信,因为要看那么多病人,还得每周反复登录保险系统,核对银行账户,整整两百次。
So, like, the way to see this, because they live in a nightmare world where you have, like, to update 200 letters a week because that's how much patients you see, and then you have to, like, go to an insurance portal, update, a system of record check against the bank account 200 times a week.
如果你只需要做几次,而不是两百次,就能省下十到二十个小时。
If you instead need to do that, like, a handful of times rather than 200 times, it saves ten, twenty hours.
如果你只需要自己处理少数几笔理赔,大部分都能自动运行,经营起生意来就轻松多了。
If there are a handful of claims that you need to file yourself, but the majority kind of like is on autopilot, makes it tremendously more easy to run a business.
我常拿这个跟科技公司为我们提供的服务作比较。
I often compare it with, like, how we are served as tech companies.
这是我创办的第三家公司,现在轻松多了。
It's the third company I'm building, and it is a lot easier.
现在团队规模小多了,跟十年前相比,那时候动不动就得十来个人,原因就是我们现在有了好用的工具。
Ends with a lot smaller team than we used to do kind of, like, ten, fifteen years ago, and it is because there's a great tool for us that we can use.
这些工具现在能完全自动处理我们的财务、薪资或人事吗?
Are all these tools completely, like, running our finances autonomously yet or our payroll or our HR?
还不能。
No.
但它们确实帮我们节省了大量时间。
But they do save a tremendous, like, amount of time.
所以我们处理这个系统的方式就是这样——我们不希望有人工介入,因为我们想要的是能快速部署、可扩展的软件。不过没关系,对第一个智能代理来说,它能完成98%的工作,剩下的那点活儿就留给护士们处理吧。
So I think that's how we approach, like, this, like, built as well, that we didn't want a human in the loop because we want software that scales and can be implemented quick, but it's fine if it does, in this case, for the first agent, 98% of the work, and the nurses live or left.
有意思的是,我们现在有成千上万的工作人员在给我们反馈,帮我们完善那些智能代理目前还做不到的申诉环节。
And then the interesting thing, like, we have thousands of staffers that are basically giving us input on how to make that appeal that the agent currently cannot do.
我们来自消费互联网领域。
We come from the consumer world.
对吧?
Right?
弗雷德里克之前在Superhuman工作。
Like, Frederic worked at Superhuman.
我之前在Robinhood工作。
I worked at Robinhood.
所以我们对产品上线的要求非常高。
So we have a very high bar for shipping stuff.
所以我们不会发布任何东西,除非真的觉得它够好了,可以完全放手,稳稳运行。
So we don't release it before it actually, like, okay, this is this is good so it can be hands off and it, works.
这些员工还会帮我们进一步提升系统的准确率。
And then these, like, staffers help us to kind of, like, get it to, like, an even higher percentage.
没错。
Yeah.
从实施和上线的角度来看,你们基本上是接入现有的诊疗管理系统,而不是让机构换掉一整套软件来用 Lassie。
From an implementation and onboarding perspective, you guys integrate with existing practice management systems for the most part versus kind of making them switch a bunch of software to adopt Lassie.
亚历克斯,你写过也谈过很多关于初创公司如何在巨头反应过来之前抢占市场的观点。
And Alex, you have written and talked a lot about kind of startups getting distribution before an incumbent can innovate.
我想听听你对AI时代下这种现象的看法,也想知道你们当初是怎么权衡这条路径的。
Curious your thoughts on, like, that in the AI era, and then would also love to hear from you guys how you thought about which path to take there.
对。
Yeah.
我当初创业的时候有过一个顿悟,简直惊呆了。
I mean, I had this epiphany when I was building my company, which is holy crap.
如果你做了一样东西,我称之为‘TiVo困境’——当年TiVo和Replay TV都发明了数字录像机,能暂停直播电视,这确实是了不起的创新,但公司却做得很差,因为真正能带来好结果的场景实在太少了。
Like, there really aren't if you build something I call this the TiVo problem, and TiVo famously TiVo and Replay TV both invented the digital video recorder, so you could pause online television, which is an amazing innovation but a terrible company, because you really have very few outcomes that are good.
你最终只能把公司卖给了像康卡斯特或者时代华纳这样的大公司,但他们不会给你太高价钱。
You either end up selling to one of the the big guys like a Comcast or Time Warner Cable, but they're not gonna pay you that much.
部分原因是,如果康卡斯特收购了你,比如你做的是TiVo,那康卡斯特的竞争对手们就会说:我们绝不让这东西用得起来。
Partially because if Comcast bought you, you you start TiVo, Comcast buys you, well, all of the competitors to Comcast, they're like, well, we're gonna not allow this to work.
所以,这就形成了我所说的‘控制折价’,而不是‘控制溢价’。
So, like, you you have what what I call a control discount versus a control premium.
这是第一种选择。
So that's option one.
第二种选择是,他们直接抄走你的东西。
Option two is they copy what you've done.
几年后,他们做得比你差多了——如果‘差多了’算个词的话——但他们手上有所有客户。
Many years later, much crappily er, if that's a word, because they have all the customers.
对。
Mhmm.
或者,第三种可能是,你和他们签个授权协议。
Or, you know, may maybe number three, you do a licensing deal with them.
因为他们掌握了所有的客户,所以所有的利润都被他们拿走了。
And they take all the economics because they have all the customers.
所以后来我意识到,很多初创公司真正该做的,其实是干点枯燥的事儿。
So that they hence, you know, my my recognition was, like, the thing that a lot of startups should do is they should do the boring thing.
比如埋头把底层基础设施搭好,牢牢抓住客户,然后再去开发那些有趣的附加功能。
Like, they should build, like, the raw pipes, the raw, just own the customer, and then you get to build the fun feature
上
on
而这一点,我到现在依然坚信。
top, which I still stand by.
我喜欢这种思路,也正是因此,我在TrialPay干了四年之后才明白,我真正该做的其实是现在这个叫Stripe的东西——这可不是事后诸葛亮,因为Stripe刚起步时只有五个人。
I like the vast and this is why maybe four years into trial pay, realized what I should build is this thing called Stripe, and this was not revisionist history because Stripe had five people.
当时我就想,咱们不如专心做点枯燥的支付处理,虽然这活儿就是个红海生意。
It's like, wow, we should do boring payment processing, which is a commodity business.
但只要我们把支付做好了,就能牢牢掌握住客户。
Because if we do that, then we own the customer.
从时间顺序上讲,你最先接触到客户。
Chronologically, you get them first.
这事儿特别枯燥。
It's a very, very boring thing.
但我们还有另一件事,就我而言是基于优惠的支付,利润非常可观。
But then we have this other thing, which in my case was offer based payments, which was very lucrative.
对。
Mhmm.
但你只有掌握了这条管道,才能做这件事,就像你只有先有数字视频,才能做数字录像机一样。
But you can only do that if you control the pipe, just in the same way that you can only build the digital video recorder if you have digital video to record.
对。
Mhmm.
那AI会怎么改变这种情况?
So how does this change with AI?
AI改变了这一点,因为在很多情况下,这些根本就不是现成的类别。
It changes with AI because in many cases, these are noncategories.
根本就没有现有的主导者。
Like, there is no incumbent.
大多数领域都是这样,比如我有个很棒的点子。
So for most categories, like, imagine I say, I have a great idea.
我想在员工入职时做背景调查,而且要和Workday系统集成。
I'm going to do background checks for new employees as part of onboarding, and I'm going to integrate with Workday.
Workday是最大的人力资源信息系统。
Workday being the the biggest HR information system.
这确实是个好点子。
That's a great idea.
但正因为太好了,Workday这种公司很可能直接照搬,而且他们手里握着所有客户。
However, it's such a great idea that it's a very obviously great idea that this thing called Workday might copy, and they own all the customers.
这就成了初创公司和老牌企业之间的较量。
And that's where it's like, you know, battle between startup and incumbent.
在这种情况下,老牌企业很可能赢,因为他们加功能太容易了,我觉得在AI时代这种优势被放大了——为什么大公司总学不会小公司的做法?
It's like the incumbent might win there because their ability to add things and I feel like that is actually magnified in the AI era because you can have like, why are big companies not good at replicating small companies?
原因有很多,但其中一个就是他们雇的工程师水平很差,流程又一大堆。不过现在有了AI,差工程师也能变成还不错的工程师。
There are lots of different reasons, but the ones that, one of the reasons is they hire very bad engineers and they have lots of process, but now AI kinda makes a bad engineer into like a pretty good engineer.
对。
Mhmm.
差不多吧。
You know, kind of.
所以这个借口就没那么站得住脚了。
So that excuse kinda goes away a little bit.
但AI软件公司,或者能替人干活的AI,最酷的地方就在这儿。
But this is the cool thing about a lot of the AI software companies or the AI that does the work.
比如,牙科软件领域的巨头是谁?
Like, who is the giant ass incumbent of dental software?
你我心里都清楚答案。
You and I know the answer on this.
但这跟Workday那种情况还不太一样。
But it's not the same thing as it's like, oh, here's Workday.
这是一家科技公司。
It's a tech company.
他们本来就有软件,只需要加点功能就行。对了,我记得有个挺有意思的故事。
They already have software, and they can add something to I I remember, actually, this is a cool story.
有家公司,好像叫X1。
There was a company, I think it was called X1.
微软的Outlook搜索功能差得要命。
Microsoft Outlook had really bad search.
对。
Mhmm.
这家公司由Idea Lab和一堆风投投资,你知道他们做了什么吗?
And this company that was funded by Idea Lab and all these VCs, you know what they did?
他们做了一个Outlook邮件搜索工具,好用得不得了。
It was like search for your Outlook email, which was so good.
但你知道吗,我觉得最后会做这件事的会是谁?
But it's like, you know who I think is gonna do this eventually?
我觉得微小的,就像那家公司一样,可惜最后彻底没了。
I think micro and again, like that company, unfortunately, went to zero.
或者说,其实很久以前就被雅虎收购了。
Or actually, Yahoo bought that long time ago.
所以我觉得同样的规律依然适用。
So, I kind of think the same rules apply.
每个初创公司和老牌企业之间的较量,关键在于谁先拿到渠道——是初创公司先占领市场,还是老牌企业先掌握创新?
The battle between every startup and incumbent comes down to whether the startup gets the distribution before the incumbent gets the innovation.
但如今情况变了,老牌企业获取创新的速度快多了。
But with many changes, one change is the incumbent can get the innovation much more quickly.
还有一点是,很多领域过去根本不存在什么老牌软件公司,因为当时要解决的只是纯粹的人力劳动问题。
But the other is that there are a lot of categories where there never was an incumbent software company because the only job to be done was, like, actual human labor.
对。
Mhmm.
这特别让人兴奋,因为现在你不用再担心,哎呀,糟了。
That's really exciting because now you don't have to worry about, like, oh, shoot.
这些人一来,就要抢我的饭碗。
These guys are gonna come in and eat my lunch.
谁啊?
Like, who?
对吧?
Right?
其实有很多行业,根本就没有现成的软件解决方案。
Like, who does like, there are a lot of industries that just don't have an incumbent software solution.
对于那些已经有成熟软件公司的行业,确实有很大风险,他们会很快推出AI功能。
For the industries that do have an incumbent software solution, yeah, the risk is very high that, they will start releasing AI features.
现在市场的发展方式特别有意思,你看公开市场的反应,很多时候都在说:你是个软件公司?
And it's a really interesting way that the market is playing out right now because if you look at the public markets, the public markets are saying, in many cases, like, oh, you're a software company.
软件完蛋了。
Software is dead.
软件太差了。
Software sucks.
软件等于零。
Software is zero.
哦,你说你是做AI的?这跟风投们说的完全相反。
Oh, you're an AI it's the opposite of what VCs are saying.
天哪。
It's like, oh my god.
你做AI相关的工作?
You do AI stuff?
对。
Mhmm.
但AI也是软件。
But AI is software.
软件就是AI。
Software is AI.
这两者根本就是一回事。
Like, the two are the same.
但我觉得,还没多少人真正意识到这一点。
But, like, I don't think everybody's come to that realization yet.
所以,如果你在做类似Workday但带AI功能的产品,或者像NetSuite那样加上AI,说到底,纯粹的AI产品本质上就是软件。
So, like, if you're doing, you know, Workday but AI, or if you're doing, you know, NetSuite but AI, it's like, you know, the AI the pure play AI thing is software at its core.
而那些纯粹做软件的公司,要是不赶紧把AI功能加进去,那就等于在抽风,或者根本没在认真工作——因为客户都在要求这个。
And the the pure play software thing, it's like they're they're smoking crack or not showing up to work if they're not working on implementing AI features because that's what their customers are demanding of.
对。
Yeah.
我们确实看到了这种情况。
And we see exactly that.
目前还没有哪家老牌公司能快速胜任这项工作。
Is that there isn't an incumbent that kind of, like, does this job or can do this job, like, quickly.
以前负责这事的是个叫Betty的人,但她两周前辞职了——那就是所谓的‘老牌’。
Well, the incumbent was named Betty, and she quit two weeks That's the incumbent.
对。
Yeah.
或者是一家账单代理公司。
Or or a billing agency.
没错。
Right.
那是Swoop医生以前的助理。
It's doctor Swoop's old assistant.
对。
Yeah.
那就是现有的解决方案。
That's the incumbent.
或者她是个粗糙的替代品,可能在海外,也可能在美国。
Or or a She was hacky version of that that, like, is somewhere overseas or in The States.
所以你真正要对抗的就是这种东西,也正因如此,我们对这些小企业特别感兴趣——因为根本没大公司介入。
So that's indeed exactly like what you're competing with, and that's what intrigued us so much about these small businesses because, like, is no major player there.
如果你带着一种他们从未见过的软件出现——现在这已经完全可能了——他们就会接受,而你就能成长起来,这在今天是非常有竞争力的。
And then if you show up with software that they have never seen before, which is now possible, they will adopt it and you can grow, which is very defensible now.
也许我们稍后再聊它们。
Maybe we get to talk about them later.
你得花大力气去对接各种系统,跟每个机构沟通,还得建立一套统一的术语体系,确保整个生态里所有人都对保险理赔和患者付款有相同的理解,因为每个系统对这些概念的定义都不太一样,这让你开发起来更难,而且根本没什么现成的竞争对手。
The the schlep you have to do to, like, do the actual labor and talk to all these, like, systems, and you need to build an ontology to make sure that everybody in this whole ecosystem is on the same page about an insurance claim and the patient payment because all these different systems have, like, a slightly different definition of that, which makes it also then harder to build because there is no incumbent.
你得把一大堆东西拼凑起来,但正因如此,竞争壁垒反而更高了。
You need to kind of, like, stitch, like, a lot of things together, but it makes it extra defensible.
是的。
Yeah.
因为我们得先搞清楚,贝蒂这个AI版本需要接入的所有系统之间,该怎么实现读写对接,然后还得设计一个通用的数据模型,让所有这些系统都能用。
Because, like, what we had to do was, like, okay, first figure out kind of, like, all these read and write integrations between all these systems that Betty, the the AI version, need access to, then you need to figure out, like, okay, what is the data model that can be used across, like, all these, systems?
在这之上,你还要开发各种智能代理,但这些根本没法凭空造出来,必须真刀真枪地干过才行。
And then on top of that, you need to build agents that, yeah, you can't really build without actually doing the work.
所以,你得花上好几年时间,才能把这套东西真正跑起来。
So there's, like, years of work that you need to do to kind of, like, get that, like, going.
这使得它的护城河特别深。
Makes it very defensible.
还有市场推广这一块,你得挨个敲开上百万扇门,而我们刚才聊到一个有意思的事:医生们其实并不反对AI,他们反而说,真希望这东西早点出现。
Like, the the go to market side as well, right, is just like you need to knock on millions of doors and say and the interesting thing we just talked about that is not necessarily that are skeptical about AI because doctor Sloop is like, oh, I wish this was there.
关键问题是,你怎么才能联系上这位医生呢?
It's how do you get hold of doctor Sloop?
对吧?
Right?
因为医生到晚上七点可不会下班。
Because doctor Sloop is not done at 7PM.
突然有急诊病人打来电话,他得赶回诊所,一边陪孩子吃晚饭,一边打开电脑,结果发现补给品用光了——因为Betty走了,他只能自己现在动手处理。
There's an emergency patient that calls, then he goes back into the office to teach that patient dinner with kids and then opens a computer, and then, oops, the supplies need to be ordered because Betty left, so I need to do this myself right now.
对我们来说,或者说对任何面向中小企业的公司而言,这里头最有趣的问题就是:你怎么让AI在小企业里落地和推广?这确实是个特别值得琢磨的难题,而这正是核心所在。
So, like, for us, but for any company selling to SMBs, the interesting puzzle here, that's why this is also super interesting go to market work because, like, how do you adopt and spread AI in small businesses is a super interesting puzzle to solve, but that's that's the crux there.
说白了,就是怎么让那些忙得团团转、又不懂技术的小老板们真正用上AI?
It is like, how do you get bit of busy nontechnical owners that adopt AI?
我觉得,你这个问题的另一面是,这可不是你从App Store下载个AI应用就完事了那么简单。
Well, I imagine the other part of the question for you, I'd love to hear your thoughts on this, or I'm sure our audience would love to hear our thoughts on this, but this is not like you download the AI app from the App Store and then you're all done.
是的
Mhmm.
对吧?
Right?
那实际该怎么完成用户引导呢?
Like, how do you actually do the onboarding?
没错
Yeah.
这其中有多少能实现自动化?
And how much of that can you automate?
因为这关系到这类产品的公司能不能成功运作。
Because that's part of what makes a business that is selling these things work or not work.
对
Mhmm.
对吧?
Right?
因为如果你得亲自派个人跑遍全国每个办公室,那真的太费劲了。
Because if you have to, you know, send your own Betty every single office in the country Yeah.
这实在太难了。
That's really hard.
要是能直接从应用商店下载个Lassie应用,一切就都搞定,那该多好。
It would be amazing if it's just like download the Lassie app from the App Store and then you're all done.
但现实是,很多系统和流程都还得靠人工操作。
But like, there's a lot of like, these these systems and processes are very manual.
对。
Mhmm.
我觉得吧,AI在硅谷被吹得过了头,但在爱荷华州却还没被重视起来。
And I kind of think, like, AI is overhyped in Silicon Valley, but underhyped in Iowa.
对。
Mhmm.
爱荷华州的人可不少呢。
Like, there are lot of people in Iowa.
那你怎么解决Lassie在最后一公里配送上的难题呢?
Like, how do you solve that district that, like, last mile distribution problem for Lassie?
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得这是个特别有意思的问题。
I think it's a super interesting problem.
假设你能挨家挨户敲门,让他们试用一下。
Assume you can knock on all these doors and get them to try it.
对吧?
Right?
那接下来怎么让他们真正用起来呢?因为同样的问题依然存在。
Then how do you get this adopted because the same argument still stands?
他们都很忙。
They're very busy.
他们不懂技术。
They are not technical.
所以啊,想让他们用AI搞业务,那可真够难的。
So, like, good luck setting up AI in their, like, business.
我觉得这也是为什么我们有消费产品背景的人在这里更有优势,像Robinhood或者Superhuman,你只有48小时的时间窗口。
And I think that's also why our consumer backgrounds come in handy here because at Robinhood or Superhuman, you get the time window forty eight hours.
如果产品没用,又没提供核心价值,用户立马就走。
If the thing doesn't work and you provide core product value, you're out.
对吧?
Right?
这些医生其实也是一样。
And these doctors are very much the same.
他们不仅难接触、难合作,而且如果几个月内看不到效果,你就得被踢出去。
It's not only are they hard to reach and hard to work with, but if it doesn't work in a couple of, like, months from now, like, you're out of the door.
必须得一插上就能立刻发挥作用。
It really needs to be plugged in and then do the job.
所以我觉得,大部分工作不只是开发这个智能代理,更重要的是怎么让使用者能无缝接入,几乎感受不到任何障碍。
So I think a lot of the work went into not only building this agent, but also how do you set people up on that agent such that almost all the friction is gone.
这花了不少功夫,现在基本上已经能做到用户自助完成了。
And and that was, like, a lot of work, and it's it's already to a point that it's self serve almost.
还剩一点点细节要完善,但说实话,爱荷华州的医生已经点头说‘我要这个’了。
So there are a few more things like left, but it's literally that the doctor in Iowa, let's not use Loop again, like, says, yes.
我需要这个。
I want this.
接着他们会进入类似 Stripe 结账或 Replink 的注册流程,把诊所的银行账户连到系统里。
They then go to almost like a Stripe like checkout or a Replink, like onboarding, like flow where they hook up the bank account of the practice in the product.
然后绑定他们的核心业务系统。
They link the system of record.
再连接所有接收理赔信息的保险平台。
They link all the insurance portals that claims come in from.
系统还会自动核实他们的机构信息。
It confirms business information.
这些医生真的是在你们诊所工作的吗?
Like, are these the doctors that actually, like, work in your practice?
然后后台会自动配置一些东西。
And then under the hood kind of, like, configures, like, things.
还剩一两个小环节,但我估计再过几个月,就能做到几乎完全自助开通了。
There's, like, one or two pieces left, but I think we're, like, months out until you basically, like, have an agent that you can almost, like, set up, like, self serve.
把这项技术带到爱荷华州的医生那里,关键就在于能不能打造一个像消费级产品那样的注册流程,把大部分复杂性都藏在背后,像苹果那样。
So I think that was a big part or is a big part of bringing this technology to people in Iowa is that can you almost build a consumer like onboarding like flow where a lot of the complexities abstracted away and kind of like apples under the hood.
说实话,我觉得像Robinhood这样的产品,能做的真不多。
Like, we could maybe not many people I think I'm very impressed by Robinhood.
我有点偏心,毕竟我以前在那儿工作过。
I'm a little biased because I worked there.
但Robinhood的突破在于,它实现了完全不用人工介入的开户流程——以前可不是这样,那时候你得先打电话,说我想开个账户。
But like in order to set up an account for a user without a human in the loop, which is what Robinhood pioneered, because back in days there was just swap and then, hello, I wanna open an account.
再往前,你还得亲自跑一趟办公室。
Before that, you had to go into the office.
但罗宾汉开创的众多功能之一,就是用户几乎可以自助完成开户,KYC流程也能自动处理。
But one of the many things that Robinhood pioneered is that you could you can almost self serve your way onto an account and KYC is getting done.
银行账户自动绑定,背后做了大量产品工作才让这一切成为可能。
Your bank is getting linked, and a lot of product work went under the hoods there to make that happen.
我们当时也遇到了很多类似的情况。
I think we ran into a lot of these, like, similar, like, like situations.
怎么才能连通所有保险平台,顺利启动流程,让数字理赔能稳定地传进来?
It's like, how do you connect all these insurance portals kick off, like, the process such that the digital claims are coming in, like, reliably?
怎么可靠地绑定银行账户,整合所有系统数据?
How do you reliably link a bank account, all the system of records?
所以,解决这个问题是整个项目的关键。
So I think a big part of this was figuring that piece out.
对。
Yeah.
说到这点,你们在牙科诊所这边还能做更多、也正在做更多功能。
I guess to that point, like there's more you can build and are building for dental practices.
还有其他各种类型的医疗诊所也可以用上 Lassie。
Then there's all these other types of healthcare practices that could use Lassie.
再就是更广泛的中小企业群体,其实也都需要你们的产品。
And then there's like the broader universe of small that could use you guys.
你们是怎么决定优先开发哪些功能、面向哪些客户销售的?
How are you prioritizing what you build, who you sell to?
你觉得,专门为牙科诊所打造的 Lassie,会不会反过来让面向物理治疗师的 Lassie 更好用?
Is there, you think, a world where Lassie for dentists makes Lassie for physical therapists better?
这就是我们的终极计划。
The master plan.
没错。
Yes.
我们现在是不是在
Are we in
节目的这一部分?
the part of the episodes?
对。
Yes.
没错。
Yeah.
我觉得分三步走。
I think three steps.
最终目标是,每个小企业都能自动运转。
Like, the end goal here is that every small business should run itself.
对吧?
Right?
繁琐的事务都由智能代理来处理。
And the busy work is done by agents.
我们要为商家打造一个代理,它会与消费者的个人代理紧密协作,而消费者的代理又会对接保险公司或其他商家需要互动的机构。
We wanna build agent for the business that then will interface with the personal agent of a consume consumer highly likely, that then will interface with an agent at the insurance company or other parties that the business needs to interface and interact, like, with.
但第一步,正如亚历克斯说的,光是美国就有十六万家牙科诊所。
But step one is to Alex's point, like, there are 160,000 dental practices in The US alone.
这位医生每年在人力上要花二十万美元。
$200,000 in labor that Doctor.
但这些人力,Sloop和其他人根本找不到。
Sloop and others can't find.
所以,先服务这个市场,光是 recurring 收入就可能达到十亿美元。
So, like, serving that market first, you're looking at a $1,000,000,000 in, like, recurring revenue as a market.
所以,这一步就是我们的起点。
So we're that's, like, step one.
接下来,我们很可能会选另一个没被充分服务的诊所类型,市场规模大,而且急需面向消费者的解决方案。
And then likely, like, we will pick another doctor office type that, like, is not well served and has a big TAM and and needs consumer like product.
对吧?
Right?
因为我们之前聊过,关键不是让 AI 做到 95% 的准确率。
Because what we discussed, the big part of not this you get the AI to work 95%.
它必须真正靠谱,而且上线流程得像注册 Coinbase 或 Stripe 那样简单。
It needs to really work, and the onboarding needs to be as simple as onboarding on Coinbase or Stripe.
所以,很可能是另一种类型的诊所。
So, like, it will likely be another, like, doctor office type.
然后最后一点是,我觉得我们已经训练出AI代理,能够接管小型企业的运营。从抽象层面看,所有小企业都需要一套系统来记录和处理信息。
Like and then the last part there is I think we've then trained AI agents to, like, run the small business, and all small businesses at an abstract level, like, have a system of record they need to read and write into.
它们都有客户。
They all have customers.
在诊所里,客户就是病人,但本质上都是围绕着支付进行互动和交易。
In doctor offices, they happen to be patients, but it's interacting and transacting around payments.
你还需要预约排期。
You need to book appointments.
所以我认为,如果我们能服务好所有诊所,其实就是在帮助全球的小企业,因为我们最擅长打造AI代理,让那些普通普通人——比如爱荷华州或肯塔基州帕杜卡的人,未来还有阿姆斯特丹、德国汉堡这些地方的人——都能轻松用上。
So I think the end goal is if we served all the the doctor offices, that we help all the small businesses across the world because we're just the best in, you know, building AI agents that salt of the earth people or people in Iowa and Paducah, Kentucky, and hopefully in Amsterdam, like, down the line where I'm from, and Germany, Hamburg where Frederick is from, can can start, like, using as well.
这就是我们的最终目标。
So that's the that's the end goal.
但我认为,就像Superhuman和Robin Hood那样,先集中精力把一件事做到极致,再从那里开始扩展。
But I think, again, similar to superhuman and Robin Hoopie work that, like, laser focus on getting one thing really, really right and then scale it, like, from there.
是的
Yeah.
但最终目标是帮助所有这些小企业。
But the end goal is to help them all.
太棒了。
Amazing.
我觉得这个总体规划真不错。
I love that as a master plan.
是个好计划。
It's a good one.
是个大计划。
A big one.
你们两位过去都参与过多家重要公司的扩张,比如Robinhood、Coinbase和Superhuman等。
You both have been part of scaling many important companies in the past, Robinhood and Coinbase and Superhuman among others.
而在2026年创建一家公司,完全是另一个全新的世界。
And building a company in 2026 is like a whole brave new world.
这跟以前完全不一样了。
It's so different than ever before.
你觉得有哪些东西是到现在还一直沿用的?
What are, like, the biggest things you've carried over?
你之前已经提到一些了。
You mentioned some of them already.
那有哪些是你得放下的?或者你觉得现在当创始人跟以前相比,有什么全新的地方?
And then what what have you kind of had to unlearn, or what do you think is new to being founders right now?
我们现在用的很多方法,都是在Superhuman时学到的。
There's a bunch of stuff that we're applying now that I I learned at at Superhuman.
比如,精准锁定目标客户群体,严格筛选入驻用户,确保他们能获得极佳的体验。
I think for one, focusing on the right ICP and being really strict about who you onboard to basically guarantee that they're gonna have a great experience.
这一点对我们尤其关键,因为如果我们接了不适合的客户,结果发现根本没法自动化他们的大量工作,那我们就陷入尴尬了——明明承诺了帮他们节省大量人力,却做不到。
I think in our case it's particularly important because if we onboard the wrong practice and say we can't actually automate that much of their work, then now we're kind of stuck with this customer that you know, we claimed we're gonna automate a bunch of labor for them.
我们根本做不到。
We can't do it.
我们真会这么做吗?
Are we gonna do it?
我们要把他们移除吗?
Are we gonna off board them?
这特别让人难受,可能比过去那种传统产品更让人头疼。
It's it's particularly painful, maybe more painful than than in a kind of old world product.
所以这一点很重要。
So there's that.
我们之前聊过很多关于新用户引导的事,但现在我们特别专注,一定要让用户尽快体验到核心价值。我们的引导过程,其实有点像一个故事、一本指南,或者一部电影。
There's also we talked a bunch about the onboarding already, but we we've really obsessed about getting to the core product value really quickly, and almost like our onboarding is a is a little bit like a, you know, it's kind of like a story or a playbook or like a movie.
我们设定了明确的节点和里程碑,要求在特定时间内达成,并且每次都会确保做到。
We we have like set set points and checkpoints that we wanna reach in certain time frames, and we make we make sure it happens every time.
当然,我们也会跟踪这些数据。
And, you know, and and we measure that, of course.
我觉得从过去到现在,做产品最不一样的地方在于,如果你回想以前做的那些产品,那时候更看重功能,或者用户能完成什么操作。
I think one thing that's that's really different in particular about product building from from back then to now is that if you think about the products that you built in the past, I think it was much more about kind of functionality or, like, the ability for the user to do something.
现在我们只关心一件事:哪些工作可以自动化,哪些环节能节省时间。
And now we think really only about, like, what what kind of labor can we automate and what or, like, work can we do and where can we save time.
比如患者账单处理,以前你可能会开发发送账单和接收付款的功能。
So if you're thinking about, say, like, patient billing as an example, I think previously you would have built, you know, the ability to send a statement and the ability to receive a patient payment.
但如今你得想,患者账单真正的痛点在哪?其实是确认我们发给患者的账单金额是不是对的。
But if you're looking at where does the actual work of patient billing go today, it's really like figuring out is the money or is the is the statement that we're gonna send the patient the correct amount?
账单发出去之后,患者打电话来问:为什么我得付这笔钱?
And or, like, once the statement is sent, you know, the patient calls and asks about, like, why do I owe this amount?
我真的必须付吗?
Do I really have to pay this?
我以为这笔费用应该被覆盖了。
I thought this would be covered.
所以你看,真正耗时间的,往往是客户沟通,或者那些说不清道不明的环节。当我们设计这类产品时,目标是:一旦交付了患者账单系统,诊所就再也不用为这事花任何时间——这跟给个工具让他们自己用,完全不是一回事,后者根本省不了多少时间。
So if you're just looking at like where does the time go, it actually goes in like oftentimes the customer communication or or some other kind of more like, you know, fuzzy fuzzy part of the work, and and when we're thinking about like shipping say a product like that, we're really thinking about, okay, once we, you know, once we deliver patient billing, the office should not have to spend any more time on patient billing, which is super different to giving them a tool that they then need to use, which doesn't really save them a lot of time.
而且我猜,你们俩在创业之前都没做过牙科X光片吧。
And then neither of you, I think, were dental X rays before you started the company.
不过
Although
这么说没错。
That's that's safe to say.
你有一年时间。
You have a year.
对普通患者来说,这已经很不错了。
That's pretty good, I think, for the average patient.
本来就应该这样。
Supposed to.
对吧?
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
当然。
Of course.
我这不过是做着另一项无聊的差事。
I'm just doing my that's another stupid duty.
是的。
Yeah.
我正想说呢。
Was about to say.
你身体好的时候,能跟我们说说现在团队有多大吗?
When you're well, maybe tell us, like, how big is the team now?
招人的时候,你们会看重牙科方面的专业背景吗?
When you're hiring, are you looking for expertise in dental?
你们希望招来的团队成员具备哪些特质?
What what are the kind of characteristics of of team members that you want to hire?
对。
Yeah.
这倒不是我们主要考虑的。
Which is not mainly on our mind.
对吧?
Right?
因为我们发现了一个很棒的产品市场契合点,目标是那些难以招到人的大市场。
Because, like, we found this really great product market fit in a large market where you can go after the labor that they can find.
目前我们有两种做法。
We we we currently have two takes in that.
其中一种其实没什么变化,甚至可以说恰恰相反。
Like, one, not much has changed, contrary in maybe take here.
你依然需要那些成长曲线陡峭、特别有野心、有驱动力的人,技能必须在工程或销售领域排进前百分之五。
You still need people with steep slope that, like, are very ambitious and and driven and have skills that are just, top five percentile either in engineering or in selling.
对吧?
Right?
我觉得这一点没变。
And I think that remains the same.
找到那种顶尖人才,跟以前没什么不同。
Getting hold of doctor Slope is just like the same exercise as before.
你可以用更原生的AI方式来做,但我认为核心能力没变,这一点确实没改变。
You could do it in a more AI like native way, but I think the skills are the same, and you're so I think that has not changed.
也许唯一不同的是,一个人对AI的熟悉程度。
Maybe the only thing is that the AI builtness of a person.
我们看到一个非常明显的普遍分界线。
I think we see a pretty clear clear division between across the board.
你觉得,随着在这个时代创办公司、组建财务团队,你写代码的方式会彻底改变吗?
Like, do you believe that, you know, the way you code will change completely as a result of building a company in this era, building out a finance department?
你认为这会和以前完全不同吗?
Do you think that's going to be completely different than before?
所以我们面试时专门考察这一点,因为我们想打造一个2026年的大型组织——能比别人多交付两倍的成果。
So in that way, we we interview specifically for for that because we wanna build a 2026 version of a of a of a big organization, right, where, like, we ship twice as much than others.
我们做事的速度快上四倍,因为我们不仅要让AI融入这些业务,更大的挑战是如何组建一支能把AI自然融入所有职能的团队。
We move, like, four times as, like, fast because we should not only, like, have AI adopted in these businesses, but the big puzzle for us is how do you build a team that kind of, like, also incorporates AI in all these, like, functions.
所以我觉得,一方面,没什么变,因为标准还是那个标准。
So I think that, yeah, on one hand, nothing has changed because, yeah, the bar is still the bar.
对吧?
Right?
我以前是田径运动员。
I used to be track and field runner.
差点就成职业田径选手了。
Almost became a professional, like, track and field runner.
后来我走了另一条路,但我的朋友们都去了奥运会。
Took a different path in life, but my friends went on to the Olympics.
而且,奥运会的跑步项目,本质还是没变。
And, yeah, Olympic, like, running is still the same.
对吧?
Right?
你得一天训练两次。
You need to train twice a day.
你得拼命逼自己到极限,这种毅力和体能,并不是人人都有的。
You, like like, push it to the edge, and that's not given, like, to everyone mentally and physically.
所以我觉得,这一点在创业过程中其实没变过。
So, like, that, I think, has not changed in company building.
你能做的事情和产出的成果,可能提升了四五倍,但这是我们共同在进行的一次大实验。
I think what you can do and the output you can generate is just like four or five times, but that's the big experiment that we're doing together.
对吧?
Right?
挺有意思的是,看看我们能多快把全美国的牙医都覆盖到,做出一个真正优秀的产品,让两百个小时的投入变得值得。
It's fun to see, okay, how quick can we get to all the dentists in America and build a really good product such that there's two hundred hours gone?
然后我们又能多快把这个模式复制到其他行业,去帮助所有中小企业?
Like, how quick can we then bring it to another vertical and then help all small businesses?
我觉得,未来几年里,这才是真正值得期待的大实验。
I think that that that is the big interesting experiment that we are gonna do over the coming years.
如果真这么简单,每个人都能请到一个贝蒂,对吧?
If it's so much easier, if everybody can hire a Betty, Right?
没错。
Yeah.
直接把Betty生成出来。
Just materialize a Betty.
对。
Yeah.
这会带来什么变化?
How does that change?
我的意思是,小企业可能确实更容易创办和运营了,但奇怪的是,真正当一个老板反而更难了。
I mean, like, it it could actually work out where, small businesses, it's much easier to start one and run one, but then actually, paradoxically, it's much harder to be one.
是啊。
Mhmm.
因为如果你想想在AI时代,所谓的护城河会怎么变的话
Because you do have if you think about moats in the AI era in general
是啊。
Mhmm.
我们通常都是拿软件公司来讨论这个问题。
We often talk about it with respect to software companies.
对的。
Yep.
所以复制某个软件简直太容易了。
So it's so easy to go replicate x y z software.
我可以在 Replit 上做,也可以在 Lovable 或 Claude 上搞出来。
I did it on Replit or I did it on Lovable or I did it on Claude.
这种事你天天听,左右都是这种说法。
Like, you hear this right you know, left and right all the time.
没错。
Mhmm.
但你要说去复制医生 Sleep 的诊疗模式,那就难多了。
Much, much harder to say I'm gonna go replicate doctor Sleep's practice.
是的。
Yeah.
小企业能有点竞争力,其中一个原因就是,它需要一整套人来共同完成最终的服务。
But one of the things that makes a small business somewhat defensible is actually it is an accumulation of people that are required to deliver the end product.
这就像你知道洋基队的传奇棒球手尤吉·贝拉一样,他说过好多听起来完全没道理的话。
And it's like if you know who Yogi Berra is, famous Yankees, baseball player that said all these things that make no sense.
不过他这话确实常被人引用。
Quote it often, though.
确实常被人引用。
Quote it often.
对吧?
Right?
我特别喜欢的一句是:‘地方太挤了,都没人去了。’
And one of my favorite ones, it's so crowded nobody goes here anymore.
是啊。
Yeah.
这话根本说不通。
It doesn't make sense.
但我想问的是,如果开小生意、经营小生意变得更简单了,你觉得小企业会有什么变化?
But I guess my question is, how do you think small business changes if it's easier to run a small business and start one?
因为理论上,这可能会蚕食小微企业的利润空间,导致人太多,反而没人愿意来。
Because theoretically, that could erode the margin of a small business such that it's so crowded nobody goes here anymore.
对。
Mhmm.
以前靠单纯把人拉来送货就能形成壁垒,现在门槛低了,反而更难了。
And like this one moat that exists of just materializing people to deliver a product, it's now so much easier, but therefore it's actually harder.
是的。
Yeah.
我们现在的看法是,这种说法默认了需求是有上限的。
I think our our current take on that is that this assumes there is a cap on kind of like demand.
就拿牙科诊所来说,找一位靠谱的水管工也一样,目前的需求量远超供给能力,这其实是个绝佳的机会,让每个人都能定期做牙科护理,一年去两次。
And if you just look at the dental practice, but the same applies to try to find a good plumber, There's just like twice as much demand that currently can be supplied, and I think this is a great opportunity for, you know, everybody to have great dental care and go twice a year.
全科医生的情况也是一样。
And I think the same can be said about primary care doctors.
我是在荷兰长大的。
I grew up in The Netherlands.
我在基层医疗方面的经历跟大多数美国人很不一样,因为真的很难在社区里找到一位了解你和你家人、能真正为你负责的靠谱全科医生。
I had a very different primary care experience than, like, most people in America here, because it's just really hard to find a good primary care doctor that is in your community, knows you, your family, and takes takes care of you.
所以我觉得这是一个机会,就像现在美国有16万名牙医,甚至更多。
So I think this we see as an opportunity to kind of, like, create, like now there are a 160,000 dentists, hundreds of thousands of dentists.
如果美国能有50万名牙医会怎样?
What if America has half a million dentists?
或者让每位牙医看两倍的患者,牙医数量不变,水管工行业也一样。我觉得很多小生意都是这样,他们其实想多接点活儿,比如多烤点派,但主要受限于人手。
Or can see kind of, like, twice as much patients, maybe the same amount of dentists, plumbing like is the same, I think there's a lot of these like small businesses, if they wish they could, you know, bake more pies, but they're constrained on labor basically.
对。
Right.
我觉得这带来的好处是,大家能多出两倍的时间去钻研手艺,这前景特别让人兴奋,因为这样一来,世界真的会变好。
And I think what this unlocks is that people have twice as much time for the craft, and that is an exciting future because then all of a sudden, yeah, you're gonna see a better world.
我觉得这也是你看待这项技术时最让人兴奋的观点。
I think that's that's going to be your view, which is super exciting about this technology.
说到你刚才提到的点,我觉得这也是我们当初发布产品、终于向全世界宣布‘嘿’的时候的感受。
I think that's also, to your point, like, when we launched and we finally told the world, hey.
这就是我们一直在做的事。
This is what we've been up to.
这可是大家讨论得最多的一个重点。
That was the main piece of, like a lot of people talked about that.
真是让人惊叹。
It's like, wow.
这是一个很乐观的例子,说明了这项新技术能怎么用,毕竟现在大家都担心世界会变成什么样。
An optimistic example of, like, how this new technology, like, can be used because there's a lot of, like, what's going to happen to the world.
但说到底,谁会反对帮小企业主减轻那些繁琐的事务呢?他们本该去烤面包、修指甲、洁牙或者钻牙,取决于他们做什么行当。
But, yeah, nobody really can be against cleaning up busy work for small business owners that should be baking pies or polishing nails or cleaning teeth or drilling depending on, like, who you are, of course.
我觉得这一点特别有意思。
But I think that's so interesting about about this.
对。
Yep.
是的。
Yeah.
你2020年创办了这家公司,那时候还没什么AI,或者说还没到我们现在说的生成式AI革命阶段——我觉得可以把2023年11月ChatGPT上线当作一个分水岭,叫它‘AI前’和‘AI后’。
So you started the business in 2020, and that was, like, arguably pre AI or pre what we think of as being this generative AI revolution, which I I would call it the the BC 80 divide of, like, November 2023 when ChatGPT launched.
对吧?
Right?
所以应该是2022年吧。
So if you or I guess 2022.
抱歉。
Sorry.
2022年11月ChatGPT公开上线之后,接着出现了推理模型,还有各种基于最初那次技术突破的后续发展,差不多四年了,你觉得现在最难解决的问题是什么?
November 2022 when when ChatGPT launched public, what is what are the kind of remaining so, you know, then you had reasoning models.
我们常说的‘软件代替人工’,到底指的是什么?
You have all of these things that have kind of built on top of the original revolution of, you know, four years ago, call it.
到底哪些问题最难攻克?
Like, what what are the hardest problems to solve?
像这种能代替人干活的软件,现在最核心的挑战是什么?
Like, what is it then we talk about, like, software that does the job of labor.
现在还有什么做不到的?
What cannot be done right now?
你觉得还需要哪些技术突破才能实现?
What do you feel like we still need more technical advance to get there?
很多时候就像九比一,最后那百分之十特别难,但不做到这一步,就谈不上完整可用。
And sometimes it's like a ninety ten thing where it's like, you know, the last 10% is really, really hard, but you can't be a feature complete solution until you've done that.
所以我只是好奇,从技术角度看,哪些地方你认为还没达到要求?
So I'm just kinda curious, like, from a technical lens, what are the things where you would say, okay.
这并不是只针对Lassie的问题。
And it's not a Lassie specific question.
更准确地说,是关于整个技术能带来什么更广泛的影响。
It's just kind of more of the technology and what it enables writ large.
在哪些方面,工作还没做到位,还远远不够好?
Where does work still need to be done where it's just not quite good enough?
那你觉得这个进步曲线会是什么样子?
And then what do you think the curve of that looks like?
所以这并不是说AGI对小企业来说是个问题。
When so it's not you know, it's like a question of AGI for small business.
是的。
Yeah.
你需要什么?如果让你估算一下,我们现在处在哪个阶段?
You know, what do you need, and where are we on that curve if you had to estimate?
我觉得有意思的一点是,这些模型训练时用了海量数据,规模也很大,但其实它们根本不会做这些实际工作。
I think one thing that's interesting is that the models are trained on so much data and they're they're so large and yet they actually don't really know how to do any of this work.
它们根本没有把工作流程内化成任何结构。
Like, they don't have the workflows encoded in any way.
比如我们现在正在开发一个产品,得收集大量标准操作流程和文件,讲的是怎么给不同付款方提交保险理赔——这类事人类员工通常也做,但更重要的是,很多经验都藏在办公室管理人员脑子里,他们就是知道怎么处理这些事。
So for example, we're working on a product now where we we have to, like, collect all of these, like, basically SOPs on, like and documents about, like, how are you supposed to bill insurance claims to certain payers and all this kind of stuff, which to some extent humans would do the same, but there's also a big amount of just like human knowledge that is encoded in, say, these office managers, and they just like know how to do this work.
可这些知识偏偏很难在网上找到。
That's weirdly not that accessible on the Internet.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得我们在这方面有个优势,因为我们手头有大量来自他们ERP系统的历史数据,可以从中推断出一些工作流程,这一点我们经常注意到。
I think we have a big advantage there because we have all of this, like, historical data out of their ERPs that we can look at and kind of infer, you know, some of these workflows from, but that's something we notice a lot.
其实我们刚开始用那些更高级的推理模型时,还以为它们大概天生就会做这些事,毕竟都训练了这么多数据,不应该是这样吗?
I think actually when we first started using some of the, you know, later reasoning models, we kind of assumed like, they probably just know how to do this work because like, why would they not do it?
它们可是用海量数据训练出来的啊。
Like, they're trained they're trained on on all of this data.
但结果发现,它们根本不懂这些工作流程里的各种细节。
But it it it turns out that they they don't know all the intricacies of most of these workflows.
我觉得确实如此。
I think yeah.
这跟Lassie关系不大,但我个人特别看好那些更小的模型,它们学得快,需要的数据也少。
This is less specific to Lassie, but I'm I'm personally kind of excited about smaller models that, you know, learn faster and can learn on less data.
我觉得未来一定会很精彩,因为我觉得智能终将无处不在,甚至像皮克斯的灯泡那样,有自己的个性,为什么不行呢?
I think that will be that will be really cool to see because I, you know, I think over time we'll have intelligence kind of I think disseminated everywhere and, you know, like, to the point where, like, you know, like the the Pixar lamp that has its own personality, like, why why not?
我真希望智能能渗透到每个角落,但说实话,我们现在离那个目标还差得远。
I I I feel like I I want my intelligence to be to be everywhere, and it feels like we're super far from that.
所以我很想知道这一点。
So I'm, you know, curious about curious about that.
我不确定这会不会给我们带来多大好处,但确实有个问题,就是这些模型学得太慢了。
I don't I don't know if it'll benefit us necessarily that that much, but there there is something about, you know, the the models not being able to learn very very fast.
对我们来说,我们花了很多产品精力在思考:怎么才能有效收集用户的意见,了解他们是怎么做事的,把这些信息转化成有用的数据,用来提升我们智能代理的能力。
And, you know, as it relates to us, like, we we put a lot of product work into how do you actually get input from, you know, from people about, you their preferences and like how they've done done the work in a way that we can then kind of like useful input, in a way that we can then use to actually make make our our agents smarter.
从产品和用户体验的角度来看,这方面也有很多值得探索的地方。
And I think from a, you know, like product UX perspective, I think there's a bunch of interesting stuff to to solve there as well.
还有一个介于技术与非技术之间的最后问题,我一直在想:当争论的边际成本变成零时,世界会变成什么样?
And maybe one kind of final question between technical and nontechnical is I I've been thinking about this a lot, how how the world changes when the marginal cost of arguing goes to zero.
对啊。
Mhmm.
没错。
Right?
我想到这个是因为,我用的健康保险是Cigna,他们到现在还只寄纸质支票。
So I was thinking about this because Cigna, who I have for my health insurance, will only send paper checks.
我当时就想,哎呀,我是不是错过了在线注册那套流程?
I was like, oh, I must have missed the whole, like, online enrollment.
没有。
Nope.
根本没有。
Nope.
他们压根就没有在线注册这回事。
They don't have one.
那他们为啥不设在线注册呢?
Why don't they have one?
因为他们指望你可能会把支票弄丢。
Well, they're kinda hoping that, like, you might lose the check.
或者压根不去存它。
You might not deposit it.
这其实就是一种故意拖延的手段。
It's just like this kind of, like, intentional delay.
保险行业也是差不多的情况。
And it's the same thing for, like, a lot of insurance.
就是一直推脱、推脱、再推脱。
It's like, you know, they're it's like deny, deny, deny.
他们就是不想赔。
They wanna deny.
另一边呢,就假装自家房子着火时,里面还藏着一幅毕加索的画。
And, like, on the other side, it's like, oh, you know, pretend that when my house burned down, I had a Picasso in there.
两边都在想办法占对方的便宜。
Like, both parties are trying to cheat each other.
这种事,对保险公司的员工和整个行业来说,早就不是新鲜事了。
This is not new to the insurance agents or the insurance, like, industry on both sides.
对吧?
Right?
但现在,人人都有这种几乎免费、能无限纠缠下去的强力工具。
But now that everybody has this, like, super powered thing that costs effectively nothing to go argue in perpetuity.
我就跟你较劲呗。
It's like, I can argue with you Yeah.
然后你再跟我较劲。
And then you can argue with me.
对。
Yeah.
但这么一来,对保险这种行业的运作模式到底有什么影响呢?
But, like, how does that change the business dynamic of things like insurance Mhmm.
付款和收款方面呢?
Payments and collections?
我猜你肯定想过很多次了。
I mean, I'm sure you've thought about this a lot.
是啊。
Yeah.
因为在很多情况下,牙医所面对的对方
Because in many cases, the counterparty that the dentist is dealing with Yeah.
保险公司就是对方。
Is the insurance carrier.
是的。
Yeah.
对吧?
Right?
应收账款或者收入的很大一部分都来自保险公司。
A big part of the accounts receivables or or revenue comes from insurance companies.
没错。
Right.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得这挺有意思的,因为这一块监管得相当严格。
I think it's quite interesting because it's pretty, like, well regulated.
比如牙医做了一个牙冠,如果你提供了完整的病历说明——弗雷德里克刚才已经提到过——像信诺这样的保险公司就有明确的文件规定:只要你提供这份X光片和这个病历说明,我们就予以赔付。
So if a dentist does a crown, like and you provide them with the correct narrative, Frederick was already talking about it, there is just a document at Cigna that specifies if you give me, you know, this X-ray, you give me this narrative, then we will cover that.
但对人来说,要记住这些规定可太难了,就拿牙科来说吧。
But for human, it's quite hard to, like, a, to to follow those, like, rules because there are, like take dentistry.
他们有五六十个,甚至可能上百个常用计费代码,要让米尔德丽德或贝蒂·迪斯塔弗记全这些,实在不容易。
They're, like, fifty, sixty, maybe 100 common billing codes, and it's quite a lot to, like, remember for Mildred or Betty Distaffer.
而我们的系统呢,可以把所有相关文件都掌握在手里。
And in this case, kind of, like, our agent, like, has, like, all the, like, documentation.
它能访问到相关的X光片。
It has access to the X-ray that is the relevant, like, one.
它知道怎么制定治疗方案,然后直接把方案提交给保险公司。
It it knows how to build, like, a treatment plan, and we'll then submit that with the insurance company.
保险公司只要按规则处理就行了。
And insurance company, like, just needs to follow the rules.
对吧?
Right?
没错。
Right.
然后他们会把这事儿给引出来。
And then they will, like, bait it out.
另一点是,因为我们深度参与这个行业,这个动态挺有意思的。
The other thing, because indeed we we are very deep in this industry, that is interesting dynamic.
我花了点时间才明白,Cigna其实也有动力去保留网络内让医生满意的合作伙伴,因为每年他们都要去找Enreason,问他们是否愿意继续使用我们的牙科保险计划。
It took me a while to understand this, but Cigna also has an incentive to have good doctors in network that are happy with them because every year they need to go to Enreason and say, do you wanna renew your dental plan with us?
而Enreason会看,比如在Alex和Olivia能去的区域里,有没有靠谱的牙医?
And Enreason is gonna look at, like, are there good dentists, like, the area that are covered that Alex and Olivia can go to?
如果答案是否定的,由于这个市场有竞争,他们就会转向其他保险公司。
And if the answer is no, then because there's competition in this market, they will go to, like, you know, another insurance company.
所以,实际上他们有动力留住医生。
So, like, there is actually incentive to keep Doctor.
比如Sloop和Quan这样的医生,留在网络里,否则雇主就不会续订我们的保险计划。
Sloop and Quan, like, in network because, like, otherwise, they will not renew the plan, like, with my employers.
所以我觉得,对我们来说,这特别有意思,也正因如此,这些代理系统才特别适合做这件事——因为流程和文档都非常清晰。
Like, So, I think that it is a lot more for us, it's quite interesting because why I also think these agents are so well equipped to do this work and because there's very clear documentation.
说到弗雷德里克的观点,这个话题我们改天可以聊上好几个小时,但我们现在确实在把那些纸质档案数字化。
Now to Frederick's point, and we can talk about this for hours maybe another time, but, like, we are also literally digitizing the file cabinets.
真的很有趣,那些文件藏得特别隐蔽,根本找不到。
Like, that's that's really interesting that it's really hard to find these, like, files that are there.
等我们把这些文件弄到手,就知道该怎么处理了。
And once we have them, we know how kind of, like, to do this.
但你提到的这些付款方式,全美还有很多医生至今还是靠纸质支票收款。
But all these payments you talked about, a lot of doctors across America still get paid on paper too.
他们每个月能收到十万美元的支票,直接堆在办公桌上,我就干过这事儿。
So, like, they get $100,000 in checks, like, deposited on their desk, and I did this.
对吧?
Right?
所以对王医生来说,我每次都得敲门,敲门,敲门,推门进去。
So for doctor Kwan, I literally knock, knock, knock, open the door.
我坐在高脚凳上,这时候邮差就会递给我一摞信件。
I sit on my barstool, and there's the mailman in this case that gives me a stack.
我跟你说真的,我得拆开所有这些信封,把十万美元的支票存进医生的银行账户,然后还得处理附在每张支票后面的详细账单。
I kid you not, I open all these envelopes, deposit $100,000, like cash, in the bank account of the doctor, and then I have to go to work on all these itemized invoices that are attached to the checks.
是的。
Yeah.
现在有趣的是,就算我们有这些技术模型,几年前也根本没法这么做,因为那时候一直都是这样运作的。
And now the interesting thing so even if we had the models, you couldn't really do this up until a couple of years ago because that was the status quo.
当时的文件柜,就是实实在在的文件柜。
So the file cabinet was literally the file cabinet.
文件柜里放着支票和详细的账单,这些是让诊所正常运转必不可少的部分。
In the file cabinet, like, were the checks and the itemized invoices that you need to do kind of, like, part of the job to keep the the doctor office, like, running.
后来联邦政府介入了,说这种做法必须停止。
And then the federal government stepped in, and they said this has to stop.
对吧?
Right?
再也不能继续用纸质支票了。
You cannot do paper checks anymore for much longer.
于是他们强制这个行业转向直接存款,给医生提供这个选项。
So then they mandated this industry to switch to direct deposits, offer it as an option to a doctor.
如果医生说想切换,你就得帮他办妥。
So if a doctor says, I wanna flip the switch, you need to do that.
那些明细账单也一样,你得弄出一个数字文件格式来处理。
The same as these itemized invoices, you need to create a digital file format, like, for that.
我们也在开发这套系统,直到完全取代为止。
And we are also writing that, like, till when.
你会发现,很多小企业——数据显示70%还在用纸质支付——现在正经历一场巨大的数字化变革,这背后是联邦政府的监管推动。
So you will see that, like, a lot of these small businesses, I think the stats are 70% are still paid on paper, and it's going through this massive, like, digitization revolution right now because federal inflection point that's regulatory.
我觉得,加上这些模型现在这么强大,这件事特别有意思。就算五年前有这些技术,支付还是纸本的,而我们正好在这段时间把它们数字化了,这跟我们之前聊的是一回事。
So I think that combined with these models being so good makes this, like, super interesting because even if you have the models or had the models five years ago, like, yeah, the payments are still on paper, and we are digitizing that in the meantime, which is also what we talked about earlier.
这可不是点一下按钮就万事大吉的事,不然整个国家早就全面数字化支付了。
Like, it is not one click and then kaboom because otherwise the whole country would be on digital payments.
对吧?
Right?
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