人工智能、供应链与经济权力的未来

我们的模型必须优于地球上所有其他模型。

Our models need to be superior than all the other models on Earth.

我们需要在质量上拥有世界上最先进的AI创新，因此必须占据最大的市场份额。

We need to have the world's best AI innovation on a qualitative basis, so we need to have the most market share.

如果我们拥有精良但无人使用的模型，那我们就变得无关紧要了。

If we have exquisite models that no one uses, we're kinda irrelevant.

美国人是积极乐观的思考者。

Americans are positive thinkers.

我们不把世界看作一个需要被分割成更小块的有限蛋糕。

We don't see the world as a finite pie that needs to be subdivided into smaller slices.

我们看到的是一个蛋糕不断扩大的世界，这才是创业的生命线。

We see a world where the pie expands, which is the lifeblood of starting a business.

赢得人工智能竞赛需要什么？

What does it take to win the AI race?

在a16z美国动力峰会，我与负责经济事务的副国务卿雅各布·赫尔伯格坐下来，讨论人工智能、制造业、供应链以及科技领域的新地缘政治。

At the a16z American Dunamism Summit, I sat down with Jacob Helberg, Undersecretary of State for Economic Affairs, to discuss AI, manufacturing, supply chains, and the new geopolitics of technology.

我们结合了他著作《战争的导线》中的主题，讨论了硬件、工业能力和安全供应链为何如今对经济实力和国家安全都至关重要。

Drawing on themes from his book, The Wires of War, we discussed why hardware, industrial capacity, and secure supply chains are now essential to both economic strength and national security.

雅各布还深入剖析了在人工智能领域取得领先地位的含义，包括模型创新、全球采用、能源、算力、关税以及美国的再工业化。

Jacob also unpacks what it means to lead in AI, from model innovation and global adoption to energy, compute, tariffs, and the reindustrialization of The US.

雅各布，欢迎来到这个播客。

Jacob, welcome to the podcast.

谢谢你的邀请。

Thanks for having me.

很高兴能来这里。

It's good to be here.

我们接下来会深入探讨经济、人工智能、制造业和供应链的未来，话题非常精彩。

We're gonna get into a lot of exciting conversation about the future of the economy, AI, manufacturing, supply chain.

但我想先从你的思想源头开始聊起。

But I wanna start at some of your intellectual origin.

你写了一本书，叫《战争的导线》，2021年出版的。

You wrote a book, The Wires of War, came out in 2021.

你能简要解释一下这本书的核心论点吗？

Why don't you briefly explain the high level thesis of the book?

然后我想知道，如果今天你为这本书添加一个后记，回顾过去五年的发展，你会写些什么？

And then I'm curious if you wrote an addendum today about how the last five years have played out, what you might have write.

是的。

Yeah.

首先，很高兴能来这里，也很高兴见到你。

So first of all, it's great to be here, and it's great to see you.

我非常期待这次对话，并有机会阐述一下政府一直在推进的一些工作。

I'm excited for this conversation and then have the opportunity to lay out some of the things that the administration's been working on.

2021年，我出版了一本名为《战争的导线》的书，书中主要提出一个当时有些争议、但如今已成为共识的论点：科技世界正深陷一场两线并行的地缘政治科技战争。

In 2021, I came out with a book called The Wires of War that was basically proposing a thesis that at the time was somewhat controversial but has become common wisdom since then, which is that the technology world is really in the grips of a two front geopolitical technology war.

一方面是软件端，另一方面是硬件端。

There's the software end and the hardware end.

在软件方面，当时我们正看到诸如外国信息战等现象的兴起。

On the software side, at the time we were seeing the emergence of things like foreign information operations.

而在硬件方面，这本书的核心观点实际上是认为硬件端才是决定性的战场。

And on the hardware side, the whole premise of the book was really to actually say that the hardware end was the decisive battlefield.

当时显然存在针对华为以及互联网基础设施的斗争。

There was obviously the battle against Huawei and really the infrastructure of the Internet.

这本书之所以认为硬件端最为重要，根本原因在于，如果一个国家控制了互联网的硬件层面，它就能渗透并控制所有运行在其上的内容。

And the basic reason why the book argued that the hardware end was the most important one is because if a country controls the Internet at the hardware level, they can compromise and control everything that runs on top of it.

在我们的体系中，私营公司与美国政府保持高度独立，以私人身份运作，这是我们所熟知的。

In our system, we have private companies that live very independently from the US government and that operate in a private capacity as we know.

但在其他地方，包括中国，企业显然更服从于中央政府。

And that system is not the case in other places including in China where the companies are obviously much more subordinate to the centralized government.

因此，当一个外国政府能够将其企业作为政治权力的工具时，这对国家主权意味着什么，就令人非常担忧。

And so ultimately when you have a foreign government that can whip up its companies as instruments of political power, that's very concerning for what it means for national sovereignty.

有趣的是，你的职业生涯始于软件领域，在谷歌工作。

And it's funny because you started your career on the software side at Google.

对吧？

Right?

没错。

That's right.

然后你意识到，在你新的角色中，你花在硬件上的时间更多了。

And then you realize that hardware, now you're spending more time there in your new role.

我想让你详细说明一下，你在硬件方面发现的关键风险是什么，以及这些风险是如何显现的？

I want you to flesh out exactly what were the sort of key risks you identified on the hardware side, and how have they played out?

它们发生了变化，还是保持不变？

How have they changed or stayed the same?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我们真正讨论的是，如果一个外国政府能够操控其运营互联网硬件的科技公司，这就从根本上挑战了我们对主权的传统认知。

So, I mean, really what we're talking about is if you have a foreign government that controls, that can instrumentalize its tech companies that operate the hardware of the Internet, it fundamentally challenges our traditional conception of sovereignty.

因为它引发了一个问题：当一个外国势力掌握着你国家所有法官、记者、法律人士和政客最深层、最隐秘的秘密时，主权究竟意味着什么？

Because it raises a question of what does it mean to be sovereign when you have a foreign power that knows all the deepest, darkest secrets of all the judges, journalists, and jurists in your country and politicians in your country?

在这样一个世界里，主权的定义开始变得截然不同。

And the definition of sovereignty starts to look very, very different in a world like that.

因此，第一任特朗普政府开展并推进了一项非常全面的行动，基本主张华为和中兴是国家安全威胁。

And so the first Trump administration carried out and prosecuted a very comprehensive campaign that basically argued that Huawei and ZT are national security threats.

自那以后，这一行动在历届政府中都得到了延续，包括本届政府。

That campaign has been sustained across administrations since then, including this one.

因此，今天，正如你之前所问的，我们生活在一个某些方面保持不变、但因人工智能革命而发生深刻演变和变异的世界中——而这场人工智能革命 arguably 是在我书籍出版一年后ChatGPT发布所推动的。

And so today, obviously, to your earlier question, we live in a world that's the same in some ways, but that has evolved and mutated in really interesting ways with the AI revolution that actually was arguably prompted by the release of ChatGPT a year after my book.

是的。

Yeah.

人工智能革命极大地提升了这场科技竞赛的赌注，从根本上增强了各国政府实施此类行动的能力。

And the AI revolution has really heightened the stakes of this whole technology race in pretty fundamental ways because it's really put on steroids the capabilities that governments can have to actually carry out these types of operations.

是的。

Yeah.

那么，我们现在来谈谈你在政府中的工作。

And so let's now get to your work in the administration.

你能谈谈你当前的主要优先事项、目标和成就吗？

Why don't you talk about your main priorities, goals, and achievements today?

是的。

Yeah.

因此，我们清醒地认识到，人工智能革命将彻底改变经济实力和军事实力，我很乐意再多谈一点这方面的问题。

So our cognizant and recognizing the fact that the AI revolution is gonna totally transform economic power and military power, and I'd love to talk a little bit more about that.

政府已经制定了一项赢得人工智能竞赛的政策。

The administration has laid out a policy to win the AI race.

总统去年七月在戴维·萨克森和我共同主办的名为‘赢得人工智能竞赛’的峰会上发表了一次非常具有历史意义的演讲，宣布了人工智能行动计划。

The president proclaimed a very, very historic speech last July at a summit that David Saxon and I co hosted called Winning the AI Race where he rolled out the AI action plan.

在这次演讲中，他明确承认美国正处于一场竞赛之中，并宣称美国将赢得这场竞赛。

And in that speech he basically laid out that he acknowledged that America was in a race, and he proclaimed that America was gonna win that race.

这番话极具理想主义色彩，戴维经常提到，它几乎让人联想到肯尼迪总统关于登月的演讲，而我恰恰完全同意他的看法。

And it was very aspirational, and David likes to reference that it was almost reminiscent of JFK's speech to the moon, which I actually happen to totally agree with him on that.

我认为这确实非常呼应了那场演讲。

I think it very much echoed that.

因此，这引发了一个对我们这类机构而言的关键问题：我们如何真正帮助他实现这一目标？

And so then that raises a question for agencies like ours, how do we actually help him achieve that goal?

从我们的角度来看，要赢得人工智能竞赛，必须满足三个条件。

From our vantage point, we see three conditions that needs to be met to win the AI race.

我们需要在质量上拥有世界顶尖的技术和人工智能创新。

We need to have the world's best technology and AI innovation on a qualitative basis.

因此，我们的模型必须优于地球上所有其他模型。

So our models need to be superior than all the other models on earth.

这是第一点。

That's number one.

第二，我们需要占据最大的市场份额。

Number two, we need to have the most market share.

因为如果我们拥有卓越的模型却无人使用，正如我们在消费科技领域所知的那样，我们就变得无关紧要。

Because if we have exquisite models that no one uses, as we know from the world of consumer technology, we're kind of irrelevant.

所以我们需要拥有最多的用户。

So we need to have the most users.

我们希望拥有应用数量最多的应用商店。

We wanna have the app store that has the most apps.

我们希望成为全球其他地区的平台。

We want to be the platform for the rest of the world.

第三，我们需要安全的供应链，因为即使我们的技术全面运转，科技公司也高效运作，但如果一个微小的零件松动，导致整个系统瘫痪，我们就会处于极其脆弱和危险的境地。

And number three, we need secure supply chains because if we have technologies that are firing on all cylinders and technology companies that are firing on all cylinders, but if one tiny cog gets loose and trips up the whole machine, we are in a very brittle precarious position.

因此，我们必须确保那些依赖来自全球不同地区多种输入和组件的公司，拥有可靠、成本效益高且安全的供应链。

And so we need to make sure that our companies who rely on many different types of inputs and components that come from very different corners of the globe actually have supply chains that are reliable, that are cost effective, and that are secure.

因此，我们正在为此付出巨大努力。

And so we're working very hard to do that.

我们启动了一项名为‘Paxilica’的倡议，旨在保障供应链，并与世界上一些技术最先进的经济体建立合作伙伴关系，达成采购协议、合资企业等。

We launched an initiative called Paxilica that aims at securing the supply chain and partnering with some of the world's most technologically advanced economies to develop partnerships, to secure offtake agreements, joint ventures, and the like.

因此，我们对这一三项并进的战略赢得人工智能竞赛感到非常兴奋。

And so we're very excited about having this three front strategy to win the AI race.

是的。

Yeah.

让我们逐一讨论你刚才提到的这三个方面。

Let's go through the three fronts that you just mentioned.

你刚才提到我们已经取得了一些成就。

And you've mentioned a little bit about what we've achieved.

让我们更深入地谈谈这些成就，同时也谈谈要实现这些条件还需要做些什么。

Let's talk more about that, but then also what needs to happen in order for those conditions to be met.

是的。

Yeah.

从质量上来说，拥有最顶尖的AI创新是一项巨大的努力。

So having the best AI innovation on a qualitative basis is really an effort.

首先，我要说，我们在AI创新的质量上已经处于领先地位。

First of all, let me just say that we already have the best AI innovation on a qualitative basis.

那么问题来了，我们如何保持这一领先地位？

So the question is how do we maintain our lead?

其中一个崭新且人人都明显感受到的棘手挑战是模型蒸馏问题，它从根本上削弱了知识产权，也破坏了行业的单位经济效益。

One of the big thorny challenges that's new and very apparent to everyone is the challenge of model distillation, which is fundamentally undermines intellectual property and fundamentally undermines the unit economics of the industry.

因为当企业投入数千亿美元进行资本支出以开发先进的模型，而其他公司却可以轻易地复制这些成果时，这无疑是一个重大问题。

Because when companies invest hundreds of billions of dollars in CapEx investments and then to develop fancy model ways, but then other companies can just take them, that's a major problem.

因此，这显然是我们正在关注的问题，我们整个政府都在与企业进行对话，试图寻找解决办法。

So that is an issue that we obviously are tracking, and our administration as a whole is engaged in conversations with companies to try to find solutions to this.

但在开发和确保我们在质性上的领先地位方面，政府、企业和AI实验室才是真正的主导者，这本应如此。

But the government the companies and the AI labs are the ones in the driver seat when it comes to developing, to ensuring our lead on a qualitative basis as they should be.

关于市场份额，我们相信我们的产品更优越，因此更受人们青睐。

With respect to market share, we believe in the power of that our products are superior, and therefore, more people like them.

话虽如此，我们也认识到，它们所竞争的环境并不总是公平和均衡的。

With that being said, we also recognize that they're competing on a playing field that's not always fair and leveled.

因此，我们正在积极与各国政府合作，确保对安全技术给予优先支持。

And so we are actively engaged with governments to basically ensure that we have a preferential preference for technologies that are secure.

这实际上是我们在华为问题上所做工作的延伸。

And this is really an extension of the work that we've done on Huawei.

我们的许多关注点一直集中在硬件基础设施上，但我认为，在人工智能时代，这究竟意味着什么，还有很多智力上的探索正在进行。

A lot of our focus has been on hardware infrastructure, but I think there's a lot of intellectual work being done for what does that mean at the AI age?

在一个开放模型权重根本难以控制的世界里，这又意味着什么？

What does that mean in a world where you have open model weights that are fundamentally harder to contain?

因此，市场份额是思考的重要部分。

So market share is very much a part of the thinking.

这就是AI专家计划的前提。

That is the premise for the AI expert program.

我们希望在全球范围内扩大市场份额。

We want to grow our market share worldwide.

大卫·萨克斯和国务卿做了大量出色的工作，帮助推出了AI专家计划，国务院也深度参与，积极推动该计划并吸引更多用户。

David Sachs and secretary have done a lot of really great work, and has done a lot of really great work to help launch the AI expert program, and the state department is very involved in helping evangelize that and actually onboard more users.

我们推出了芯片顾问服务，为一部分国家——即帕克西卡国家——的AI专家计划提供一对一的高端支持。

We launched the chip concierge service that provides white glove support for the AI expert program for a subset of countries, are the Paxilica countries.

因此，我们确实在努力以建设性的方式做出贡献，帮助加速吸引更多用户。

So we're certainly trying to contribute in ways that are constructive and in ways that help be an accelerant to get more users.

至于保障供应链安全，我认为政府可能发挥最关键的作用，因为我们能促进合作伙伴关系。

And then for securing our supply chains, that's where I think the government probably can play the most important role because we can catalyze partnerships.

我们可以推动合资企业。

We can catalyze joint ventures.

我们的供应链非常脆弱。

Our supply chains are very frail.

自新冠疫情以来，我们意识到中国拥有高度垂直整合的供应链，因为它们有许多国有企业。

What we have realized since COVID is obviously China has very vertically integrated supply chains because they have a lot of state owned companies.

我们的供应链完全不是垂直整合的。

Our supply chains are not vertically integrated at all.

它们完全地理分散。

They are totally geographically dispersed.

成千上万的不同供应商，其中许多是全球各地的小型家庭作坊，信息严重不对称。

Thousands of different vendors, many of them are mom and pop shops in different parts of the globe, full of information asymmetries.

位于圣克拉拉或圣何塞的公司根本不知道这些零部件来自哪里、由谁制造，因为中间存在太多层的供应商合作关系。

A company in Santa Clara or San Jose has no idea where some of these parts come from, who makes them, because there's so many different layers of vendor partnerships.

因此，结果就是企业对供应链的可见度极低。

And so as a result, you end up with a system where companies have very low visibility.

由于涉及人员众多且缺乏协调，造成了大量低效。

There's a lot of inefficiencies by virtue of the sheer number of people involved and the lack of coordination.

因此，我们正在考虑利用一些工具，让政府成为催化剂，从而为那些大型、 arguably 具有系统重要性的公司的供应链带来一定程度的效率和协调。

And so one of the things that we're looking at doing is actually using tools that the the government can be a catalyst for to actually bring a little bit more efficiency and coordination to how the supply chains for our large, arguably, systemically important companies work.

这些工具包括了购销协议。

And and and those tools include off take agreements.

包括合资企业。

They include joint ventures.

包括共同投资机会。

They include co investment opportunities.

最后一个则是市场激励。

And the last one is market incentives.

这实际上涉及到一个概念，即创建某种优先贸易区。

So this sort of gets at, you know, one of the concepts around, you know, creating some sort of preferential trade zone.

众所周知，政府已经大力推行以激励为基础的政策，通过征收关税来鼓励在美国的投资。

We have you know, obviously, administration has pursued an incentives based agenda very heavily with respect to the imposition of tariffs to encourage investment in The US.

但政府拥有多种工具，能够真正创造激励机制，营造环境，促使私营部门以更具战略意义的方式部署资本。

But the government has tools to actually create to incentivize behavior and create the environment that will actually lead the private sector to to deploy capital in ways that are strategic.

是的

Yeah.

顺便说一下，关于这一点，如何正确理解自解放日以来关税的影响呢？

And by the way, on that note, what is the right way of making sense of, you know, of tariffs the effect of tariffs since liberation day?

它们主要是作为一种谈判工具，有效实现了其目标吗？

Is it is it that they were largely a negotiating tool that that was, you know, effective in achieving its goals?

还是说，它们也是一种具有特定目标的经济政策？

Is it that it's also an economic policy that had certain, goals?

在意识到现在还为时过早的情况下，如何正确理解这一点？

What what's the right way of making sense of it while also realizing that it's still early?

是的

Yeah.

基本的观点是，过去一代左右，我们已经失去了六万六千家制造工厂。

So the the the fundamental, thesis and view is, since, you know, over the last generation or so, we've lost 66,000 manufacturing plants.

我们失去了超过两百万个制造业工作岗位。

We've lost over 2,000,000 manufacturing jobs.

我们的工业基础已经被彻底掏空。

Our industrial base has been completely hollowed out.

这并不是什么天命所归，也不是命中注定，而是过去二十五年来一系列糟糕的政策选择所导致的。

And not by an act of divine destined you know, manifest destiny, but really by choices, policy choices that have been instituted over the last twenty five years that have been terrible.

因此，关税实际上是一种重新调整，基于这样一个认识：我们需要制定一种与国家安全需求紧密相连的经济政策。

And so the tariffs are actually a recalibration of based on the recognition that we need to have an economic policy that is tethered to our national security imperatives.

它们适用于纯粹而完美的市场。

They're in pure and perfect markets.

当你存在贸易逆差时，通常货币价值会发生变化，从而使贸易逆差回归到零的均衡水平。

When you have a trade deficit, typically, you have changes in the value of a currency that allows a trade deficit to go back to an equilibrium level of zero.

但持续二十五年、每个季度都出现贸易逆差，并不是一种自然现象。

But it is not a natural phenomenon to have consistent trade deficits for a twenty five year period on a on a quarter by quarter basis.

这是市场未能正常运作的结果，也就是说，市场没有正确运行。

That is the result of of markets that are not functioning in you know, that are not functioning correctly.

因此，关税实际上有助于纠正这些长期的结构性贸易逆差。

And so the tariffs actually helped correct those deficit, those long term secular trade deficits.

如果我可以补充一下，稍微偏离一下主题，但我想重点强调这一点。

And if I could just add if I could digress and just really hammer this one point.

总统上任时，我们与前12大贸易伙伴的贸易逆差每年超过1万亿美元。

When the president took office, we had a trade deficit with our top 12 trading partners of over $1,000,000,000,000 a year.

我的意思是，这个数字高得离谱。

I mean, it was astronomical.

因此，我们持同样的观点，认为这种年复一年的巨额贸易逆差是完全不可持续的。

And so we took, you know, the same view that that level of trade deficit on a year by year basis is completely unsustainable.

在解放日之后，总统实施了关税，我们看到这些数据的走势发生了根本性转变。

After Liberation Day and when the president instituted tariffs, we've actually seen a complete change in trajectory in a lot of these numbers.

我们与中国之间的贸易逆差——长期以来一直是我国最大的贸易逆差来源——正在以一种史无前例的方式急剧下降。

Our trade deficit with China, which has long been our largest trade deficit country, has been plummeting, you know, in a way that's really historic.

我们的整体贸易逆差正在缩小，而且我们实际上看到了美国资本支出投资创纪录的增长，但这些数据尚未反映在贸易统计中，因为资本支出还只是早期迹象。

Our trade deficit overall has been receding, and and and we have actually seen we've actually seen record investment in CapEx investment in The US, which doesn't even show up in trade data yet because the CapEx investment hasn't you know, these things are early indicators.

这些投资尚未转化为生产能力，因为许多工厂目前还在建设中。

It hasn't yet converted into production capacity because a lot of these plants are being built as we speak.

但作为科技行业的人，你明白滞后指标和先行指标之间的区别。

But it's it's, as someone in the tech industry, you understand the difference between a lagging indicator and an early indicator.

因此，看到这些投资正在大量进行，真的令人鼓舞，甚至相当令人兴奋。

And so it's really encouraging and actually quite exciting to see a lot of these investments being made.

所以，基本观点是，我们过去有一种政策世界观，认为薯片和芯片无所谓，国家安全可以脱离经济政策独立存在。

And and so, you know, the basic thesis is, we used to have a a policy worldview that said, you know, potato chips, computer chips, doesn't matter, and you could have a a national security untethered from economic policy.

我们相信，将经济政策与国家安全保持一致至关重要，这包括制定不会每年造成万亿美元贸易逆差的经济政策。

We want to we believe that it's important to bring our economic policy in line with our national security, and that includes having having an economic policy that does not run trillion dollar trade deficits on a year by year basis.

再谈谈贸易逆差大幅减少带来的积极好处。

And and say more about with the positive benefit of having a much reduced trade deficit.

是不是在就业方面，现在会雇佣更多美国人，因为我们在这里建设得更多了？

Is it that on the employment side that will now, you know, you know, employ more Americans because we're building more here?

还是说，我们还能照顾到一些

Is it that we'll also just take care of some of the industries that

对国家安全最重要的产业？

are most important for national security?

是还有更多好处吗？

Is it, you know, more more benefits?

首先，财政部将拥有更多资源来真正资助美国人关心的许多事项。

Well, first of all, the treasury will have more resources to actually fund a lot of the things Americans care about.

所以，这对我们可用于资助政府以及重要项目的资源产生了巨大影响。

So, you know, it has really it it has a very big impact on the resources at our disposal to actually fund, you know, the government as well as, you know, important programs.

其次，它对根本性的问题也有重大影响——我们在疫情期间意识到的一点是，你不能靠Facebook广告来保卫一个国家。

Second of all, it has a very big impact on you know, fundamentally, one of the things that we realized during COVID is it is incredibly you can't defend a country with Facebook ads.

你需要能够制造东西。

You need to be able to make things.

我们发布的国家安全战略中有一句话非常贴切：未来属于建设者。

And the national security strategy that we released actually has a line that's very apt, which says the future will belong to builders.

这就是我们的信念。

And and that's our belief.

关税的作用是改变了建设的经济环境。

What the tariffs do is they change the economics of building.

它们为美国的制造者提供了一个公平的竞争环境，使他们在美国本土制造更具经济性。

They they provide American builders with a re leveled playing field that makes it economical for them to compete if they build in America.

因此，从根本上说，正是由于这些关税，我们才看到了历史性的资本支出投资。

And so and fundamentally, that's why we've seen historic CapEx investments because of the tariffs.

特朗普工业革命的要素包括关税、放松监管、能源充裕以及税收激励，其中包括通过那项宏伟法案促进资本支出投资。

The ingredients of, you know, the Trump industrial revolution are tariffs, deregulation, energy energy abundance, and tax incentives, which include CapEx investing through the one big beautiful bill.

这些基础要素彻底改变了在美国制造产品的单位经济效益。

Those building blocks totally change the game when it comes to the unit economics of building things in America.

因此，这与欧洲的做法形成了鲜明对比，令人遗憾的是，欧洲有着极高的能源价格、疯狂的监管和极高的税收，结果就是欧洲的去工业化持续加剧，这非常令人惋惜。

And so it's actually in total contrast to what Europe is doing sadly, where you have super high energy prices, insane regulation, insanely high taxes, and you see the results, which is a continued sustainment of deindustrialization of Europe, which is very regrettable.

因此，我们认为这些都是可以选择的，而且实际上是可以逆转的。

And so we think these things are choices, and you can actually reverse them.

我们正在实时见证这一变化的发生。

And we're seeing that play out in real time.

说到欧洲，有些人会指出，嘿。

On the note of Europe, there there's some people that point to, hey.

有一些国家可能正在增加他们的国防开支。

There's maybe some countries that are increasing their their defense spending.

你觉得这是真的吗？

Do you think that's that's for real?

你觉得这对我们有利吗？

Do you think that's good for us?

我们该如何理解欧洲目前正在发生的事情？

How should we make sense of what what's happening in Europe right now?

我认为政治意愿是真实的。

So I think the political will is real.

但你知道，有一件事我相信你和你的观众都会明白，那就是对于科技行业的人来说，政治意愿可能存在，但要将这种政治意愿转化为实际能力，还需要企业参与。

But, and, you know, one of the things that I'm sure you and your viewers will appreciate, you know, for folks in in the technology industry is the political will can be there, but that you know, translating that political will into capabilities will require companies.

需要有公司来研发和制造至少与市场上现有产品相当或更先进的技术和武器系统。

Will require builders building technologies and weapon systems that are at least comparable or superior to what is already on the market.

而要做到这一点，你需要非凡的创始人，因为创办公司非常困难，尤其是那些技术先进且资本密集的硬件公司。

And in order to do that, you need founders who are exceptional because building companies are very hard, especially hardware companies that are very advanced and and capital intensive.

你需要一个真正有利于创业的环境。

And you need an environment that actually makes it somewhat conducive to actually build a company.

欧洲很难把这些要素整合起来，因为欧洲的文化一直不太鼓励冒险，而冒险是创业的生命线。

And it's really hard for Europe to put those pieces together because they you know, the culture in Europe has been really not favorable to encouraging risk taking, which is a necessary which is the lifeblood of starting a business.

你需要一种敢于冒险的文化。

You need to have a risk taking culture.

此外，欧洲还面临单位经济问题，因为在欧洲制造东西成本极高，你的能源账单非常高。

And and then they have the unit economics problem where it's just really expensive to build stuff in Europe because your energy bills are really high.

在你正式起步之前，就得花一大笔钱支付法律费用。

You have to spend a ton of money on legal fees before you even start.

所以，这些方面都非常具有挑战性。

And so it's you know, those parts are very challenging.

这并不是说在欧洲创业不可能，而是它们面临着巨大的逆风。

So it's not that starting things in Europe will be impossible, but they have major headwinds.

它们从第一天起就比美国公司有显著的劣势，而幸运的是，由于我们是联邦制，各州正是民主的试验场。

They will start on day one with significant disadvantages compared to American companies where, fortunately, because we have a federal system, the states are the laboratories of democracy.

因此，一些公司——我们认识其中许多——如果在一个州难以发展，总可以迁往另一个税收和监管环境更有利的州。

And so if some companies, many of whom we know, you know, have a hard time building things in one state, they can always move to a different state that has a favorable tax environment and and regulatory environment.

因此，我们实际上拥有一个仍然让创业变得相当容易的体系。

And so we actually have a system that, you know, it still makes it quite easy to build things.

所以我们的政策是，我们希望欧洲强大。

And so we we our policy is we want a strong Europe.

因此，我们投入了大量努力，与欧洲的朋友进行坦诚、真实的对话，以表达我们的关切。

And so we have really invested a lot of efforts into having a truthful candid conversations with our friends in Europe to actually share our concerns.

而且，你知道，一些传统媒体歪曲了我们的立场，将其描绘成对欧洲抱有敌意，但这并不令人意外，因为这完全是误解。

And, you know, the media some elements of the legacy media has inaccurately portrayed our our stance as being antagonistic towards Europe, but it'll be no surprise that that's a total misrepresentation.

事实是，当你真正关心某人时，你才能与他们坦诚相待。

The truth is is that when you actually care about someone, you can actually be candid with them.

是的。

Yeah.

清晰就是善意。

Clear is kind.

所以，你知道，这正是因为你在乎。

And so, you know, it is because you care.

如果你有一位亲人病重了，是假装他们完全健康，告诉他们一切都会好起来，而你知道他们得了癌症，这才是富有同理心的做法？还是应该如实告诉他们存在问题，需要他们去应对？

If you have a relative who's unwell is the empathetic view to pretend like they're perfectly fine and tell them everything is gonna be okay when you know that they have cancer, or is the empathetic view to actually let them know that there's a problem that they need to take care of?

我认为后者显然是更有同理心的立场。

I think the latter is clearly, the more empathetic position.

我们在乎欧洲。

We care about Europe.

我们希望他们强大。

We want them to be strong.

因此，我们正试图引起他们对一些我们认为严重阻碍他们发展的政策问题的关注。

And so we are, you know, trying to draw their attention, towards policy issues that we think are serious headwinds for them.

是的。

Yeah.

同样，有些人会批评说，嘿。

Similarly, you know, some people critique and say, hey.

让这些国家依赖我们更好。

It's better to have these countries dependent on us.

就像你的例子一样，如果你真的关心某人，你会希望他们拥有主权。

Whereas similar to your example, if you really care about someone, you want them to be sovereign.

你希望他们独立。

You want them to be independent.

你希望他们强大。

You want them to be to be strong.

这并不意味着我们正在逐渐疏远，不再互相支持。

And that doesn't mean that we're, you know, drifting drifting apart and no longer gonna support each other.

这意味着或许我们可以更好地互相支持，因为你带来了

It means that perhaps we could support each other better because you bring

更多东西到

more to

桌面上。

the table.

没错。

Exactly.

而且，呃，你请说。

And and oh, go for it.

我本来想说，美国人往往是一些积极的思考者。

I was just gonna and Americans are positive some thinkers.

我的意思是，与之不同的是，这从根本上说，海外很多人没有充分认识到的是，华盛顿并没有一个中央集权的、疯狂的计划来让世界其他地区依赖美国，因为我们是正和思维者，这意味着在实践中，美国人也经常进行大量合资合作，因为我们并不把世界看作一个固定大小的蛋糕，需要被分割成更小的份额。

I mean, unlike and this is fundamentally you know, there is something that doesn't always, that people underappreciate overseas is it's not like there is a central a centrally planned maniacal plan in Washington to get the the rest of the world dependent on America because we are a positive sum thinker as and what that means in practice is Americans also do a lot of joint ventures, you know, because we don't see the world as a finite pie that needs to be subdivided into smaller slices.

我们看到的是一个蛋糕会不断扩大的世界，充满机遇。

We see a world where the pie expands and where there is an opportunity.

许多美国公司非常习惯于进行共同投资和合资合作。

And a lot of American companies are very comfortable doing co investments and joint ventures.

所以，这是一种非常不同的视角。

And so it's a just a very different lens.

是的。

Yeah.

我们该如何理解中东正在发生的主权人工智能投资？

How should we make sense of the sovereign AI investments that are happening in the in The Middle East?

这对我们也具有战略意义吗？

Is that also strategic for us?

再多谈一点这个话题吧。

Or say more about that.

是的。

Yeah.

从根本上说，中东拥有大量资本。

So fundamentally, The Middle East has a lot of capital.

他们迟早会将这些资本投入人工智能领域。

They're going to invest it in artificial intelligence one way or the other.

该地区的一些投资者非常精明。

They are, you know, some of the investors in the region are incredibly sophisticated.

他们中的许多人正确地认识到，他们希望打造一个摆脱对碳氢化合物依赖的经济。

And a lot of them have rightly recognized that they they want an economy that is diversified away from hydrocarbons.

而人工智能本质上是一条路径，使他们能够从出口碳氢化合物的模式，转向出口智能和代币的世界。

And AI is fundamentally a path that allows them to shift from a paradigm where they export hydrocarbons to a world where they export intelligence and tokens.

要知道，构建大规模计算能力的一个基本要素是廉价能源的获取，而计算成本的核心组成部分就是能源成本。

They are a a a as as as you know, a fundamental building block of having of of large of training large computing capacity is cheap access to cheap energy, An integral function of the cost of of compute is the cost of energy.

而在这其中，你拥有大量极其廉价的能源。

And in the middle of this, you have a lot of very cheap energy.

因此，他们准确地识别出了这一比较优势，并希望加以利用。

And so that is a comparative advantage that they have identified accurately and that they want to capitalize on.

因此，我们的观点是，让我们共同努力，采取一种互利共赢的方式。

So our view is let's work together to have a mutually beneficial approach.

我们希望推动这一点，因为我们对世界持积极的正和观点，我们相信一个能够帮助他们实现自身抱负的世界，这种方式不仅能扩大整体利益，还能为我们的公司创造合作机会，共同成就更大的事业。

We want to enable you know, because we have a positive a positive sum view of the world, We we believe in a world where we help them achieve their aspirations that they've set for themselves in a way that actually grows the pie and offers our companies opportunities to collaborate on something greater.

因此，我们对中东的战略定位，是为我们的公司提供拓展领先优势的机会，因为这是一个能为我们的公司提供大量廉价能源的市场。

And so we we see our approach to The Middle East as an opportunity to allow our companies to expand their lead because it's it's actually a market that, gives our companies access to a lot of cheap energy.

阿联酋、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯，还有以色列，他们都对人工智能感兴趣。

The UAE, the the Qataris, the Saudis, you know, the Israelis, all of them are interested in AI.

如果他们愿意向我们的公司提供大规模的计算能力，我们认为这是非常好的事情。

If they want to make available large compute capacity to our companies, we think that's a great thing.

因此，我们一直与他们进行大量沟通。

And so we've been having a lot of conversations with them.

阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯，我们签署了一项人工智能协议。

The UAE and Saudi Arabia, we signed an AI an AI deal.

我们与他们签署了两项大型人工智能协议。

We signed two large AI deals with them.

我去了以色列，那里我们签署了一项关于技术合作的双边联合声明，我们对此非常兴奋，其中包含了人工智能。

I was in I was in Israel where we signed a bilateral joint statement on technology cooperation, which we're very excited about, which included artificial intelligence.

因此，我们非常支持这一方向。

And so, you know, we're we're very supportive.

这个地区非常有趣，因为长期以来，人们普遍认为中东是一个不稳定的地区，而东亚才是经济增长的引擎。

It's it's a fascinating region because I think for a long time, the stereotype was that The Middle East was an unstable place and East Asia was an engine of growth.

而在过去二十年左右的时间里，我们看到该地区以出人意料的方式实现了经济崛起。

And part of what we've seen over the last twenty or so years is really that region emerge economically in a way that has caught a lot of people by surprise.

所以看到这么多发展令人兴奋。

So it's exciting to see a lot of the developments.

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Absolutely.

为此，你提到过，如果说二十世纪依赖石油和钢铁，那么二十一世纪将依赖计算能力和支撑它的矿物。

And and to that end, you've talked about how if the twentieth century ran on oil and steel, the twenty first will run on compute and, minerals that feed it.

为什么说计算和石油是恰当的类比呢？

Why is, the right analogy, you know, compute and and oil?

因为石油和能源从根本上说是经济增长和经济活动的基础。

Well, because, oil and energy were fundamentally, functions of economic growth and economic activity.

当工业革命发生时，工业化能源的大规模生产真正带来了经济增长的跃升和长期加速。

And when you had the industrial revolution, the integration of industrialized energy, industrial scale energy production really led to a step change and a secular acceleration of economic growth.

而我们很可能看到的人工智能——事实上，我曾在白宫经济委员会与人合著了一篇关于巨大分化现象的论文——我认为，超级智能革命很可能像第一次工业革命那样，带来经济的长期加速增长，使GDP增长曲线整体向右移动。

And part of what, you know, we are likely to see with artificial intelligence, and I actually coauthored a paper at the White House economic at the White House Economic Council, on the great divergence is you the the superintelligence revolution, I think, is likely to lead to a secular acceleration in in economic growth similar to what we saw during the first industrial revolution where you see start to see the growth band of GDP growth start to shift to the right basically.

所以，当我们的社会主要是农业社会时，每年的增长率在0.1%左右。

So, you know, when we had societies that were primarily agrarian, growth was between 01% year by year.

如果你的增长率在0.1%左右，那就意味着你没有复利增长，因为你低于1%。

If you're between 01%, that means you don't have compounding growth because, you know, you're under 1%.

工业革命之后，我们每年的增长率大约在2%到3%之间。

After the industrial revolution, we had between, you know, 23%, one and three percent roughly on a year by year basis.

突然间，这释放了复利增长的力量。

All of a sudden that unlocked compounding growth.

从那时起，你开始看到经济增长像曲棍球杆一样呈指数上升。

That's when you start to see economic growth grow up exponentially like a hockey stick.

而我们可能在人工智能革命中看到的，正是经济增长的进一步提升，年增长率可能达到3%到5%，甚至可能达到6%，这确实是经济增长的显著加速。

And part of what we're likely to see with the AI revolution is actually a shift upwards in in economic growth where you start to see growth pick up between three and, you know, five or maybe even 6% on a year by year basis, which is really a dramatic acceleration of growth.

有什么证据能支持这一点呢？

Evidence that what evidence do we have to point to that?

事实上，美国的经济增长率已经突破了5%。

Well, we've already had growth break 5%, in The US.

这非常关键，因为美国是全球最大的经济体。

And that's huge because The US is the world's largest economy.

所以当我们以5%的速度增长时，

So when we're growing at 5%,

确实是这样。

that's Yeah.

相当于给我们的经济增加了相当于沙特阿拉伯大小的GDP。

Like adding a GDP the size of Saudi Arabia to our economy.

我的意思是，这规模巨大。

I mean, it's massive.

这是一次巨大的财富增长和创造。

And it's a massive movement and creation of wealth.

所以这是第一点。

And, and so that's number one.

第二点，另一个重要指标是我们看到生产率的增长突破了5%。

Number two, the other big indicator is we're seeing productivity break 5% growth in productivity.

所以，如果你相信生产力必然会推动增长和扩张，那你现在看到的就是这些数据。

So if you believe that productivity is, you know, obviously gonna accelerate growth expansion, you're seeing that data.

我们看到的其他早期迹象是，需求创下了新高。

The other early indicators that we're seeing is we're seeing record demand.

从能源、矿产到零部件，乃至计算能力，所有领域的需求都在上升。

Demand pick up for everything from energy, minerals, components, you know, compute capacity.

所有这些需求都在大幅增长。

All of that demand is massively going up.

因此，我们实际上正目睹一个几乎受制于供给的经济，因为需求太过强烈。

And and and so we're actually seeing an economy that's almost supply constrained, where demand is just so intense.

需求的增长速度已经超过了供给的速度。

It's outpacing, you know, the rate of supply.

所以，在我看来，这表明经济正在全速运转。

And and so to me, that shows an economy that's actually really running on all cylinders.

因此，看到这样的情况确实令人振奋。

And so it's quite exciting to see Yeah.

你知道，这种经济加速。

You know, this economic acceleration.

有趣的是，它恰好在最恰当的时机出现，因为一段时间以来，全要素生产率的数据其实并不强劲。

And it's funny because it really came at the perfect time where for a while, the total factor productivity statistics, you know, weren't super strong.

你知道，我们在减少支出，而债务却在持续增加。

You know, we're reducing, whereas the debt was also, you know, increasing.

就旧金山本地而言，疫情期间人们纷纷搬离，大家都在说，哦，旧金山怎么了？

You know, local to San Francisco, you know, people were were moving during COVID, and people were saying, oh, know, is San Francisco you know, what's happening there?

然后，当然，AI热潮来到了旧金山。

And and then, of course, AI boo happens to SF.

谁说的？

Who said that?

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

一些好朋友。

Some good friends.

但同时，对于美国整体而言，这似乎是我们天赐的良机，你知道的？

And but also, you know, just for The US in general, it seems like this is our godsend, in terms of you know?

因为人们曾经在狗狗币时期等时候说，你知道的，我们真的得好好处理债务问题。

Because people were saying, you know, during Doge, etcetera, like, you know, we've really gotta take care of the debt.

但似乎无论如何，你只能在一定程度上加以限制，但这种支出怪兽就是存在。

And there's it just seems to be, you know, you can limit it to some extent, but there just seems to be this spending monsters.

也许我们更容易通过增长来摆脱困境。

And and maybe it's just easier to grow our way out of it.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这确实是真的，这简直是一个典型的美国故事——你知道的，我们总能在最后一刻找到解决办法。

I mean, it is true how and it's such a quintessentially American story where, you know, we somehow figure things out at the eleventh hour.

新冠疫情来了。

COVID hits.

我的意思是，旧金山确实看起来并不像

I mean, is true that San Francisco did not seem like it was in

一个很好的地方。

a great I looked spot.

当时。

At it.

我没看到。

I didn't see it.

我的意思是，我们在迈阿密待了一段时间，是的。

I mean, we spent some time in Miami for Yeah.

一小会儿。

A little

美好的时光。

Good times.

所以，很多人非常担心支出膨胀、赤字以及所有其他问题。

And, and so, you know, a lot of people were very, very concerned about the explosion and the deficit and and all the rest.

而且，你知道，雷·达利奥花了大量时间谈论我们正陷入一种死亡螺旋，等等。

And, you know, obviously, Ray Dalio spent a lot of time talking about how we're in a death, you know, death spiral, etcetera.

而且，你知道，我们看到的是人工智能革命以风暴之势席卷经济。

And, you know, what we've seen is the AI revolution catches the economy by storm.

旧金山实现了令人震惊的反弹。

San Francisco makes this, you know, shocking comeback.

而且，希望这种势头能持续下去。

And and, you know, hopefully it let last.

而且，你知道，生产率提升了，增长开始加速。

And and, know, productivity picks up, growth starts to accelerate.

这实际上真的很惊人，因为增长能解决很多问题。

And and it's it's actually really amazing because growth solves a lot of problems.

我的意思是，它能解决债务问题。

I mean, it solves the debt problem.

它能解决，你知道，很多问题。

It solves, you know, a lot of problems.

这实际上是总统非常理解的一件事。

And this is actually something that the president really understands so well.

我的意思是，我在科技行业工作期间学到的一点是，当真正伟大的创始人深刻理解优先排序和从噪音中识别信号的重要性时，他们会知道该怎么做。

I mean, one of the things that is, one of the things that I really took away from my time in tech is, you know, when you really great founders understand the importance and the power of prioritizing and isolating signal from noise.

他们明白，哪些一两件事如果做不好，就会起到决定性作用。

They understand how you know, they're able to identify what are the one or two things that if I don't get right are decisive.

某种程度上，我们真的很幸运，能有一位具备这种思维方式和诸多特质的总统，因为他真正明白，如果经济快速增长，许多其他问题都会迎刃而解。

And, you know, we are actually really lucky in a way to to have a president that really has that kind of thinking and, you know, a lot of those attributes because he really understands that, you know, if the economy grows really fast, a lot of the other problems go away.

是的。

Yeah.

完全自动地解决。

Just completely on their own.

所以，令人惊叹的是，这一切竟然在短短一年内如此迅速地汇聚在一起。

And and so it's actually really amazing how, how, you know, this has actually, you know, come together so quickly in in a year.

完全正确。

Totally.

我的意思是，已经一年了。

I mean, it's been one year.

这真的太惊人了。

It's really amazing.

是的。

Yeah.

我想在结束之前，回到你提到的经济安全这个观点。

I wanna, gear towards closing by going back to this idea of economic security that you talk about.

你知道吗？

You know?

我认为中国在我们讨论的这些矿物材料方面，占比高达90%。

I believe China in process is like 90% of mineral stuff we were discussing.

我想知道，有没有可能真正实现多元化？

And I'm curious, is is there a way of actually diversifying?

或者，你认为我们亟需解决的关键瓶颈和风险是什么？

Or what what do you identify as the critical bottlenecks or risks that we have to solve?

所以我真的非常乐观，相信我们能够解决这个问题。

So I'm actually incredibly bullish that we're gonna solve this.

所以从宏观来看，正如我们之前提到的，我们需要保障供应链安全，这需要把众多拼图块整合起来。

So the the big picture is obviously, as we mentioned earlier, is we need to secure our supply chains, which requires putting a lot of pieces of the puzzle together.

这非常复杂。

It's very complicated.

话虽如此，我们拥有世界上最有才华的创业者。

With that being said, we have the world's most talented founders.

与某些地方不同，我们真正支持这些创业者。

Unlike some places, we actually empower those founders.

是的。

Yeah.

你知道，我们不会把他们打发到日本去躲起来。

You know, we don't send them hiding to Japan.

没错。

Exactly.