巴拉克与王丹：工程师之国 vs 律师之国

我不认为它会回来了。

I don't think it's gonna be coming back.

因为它依赖于意识形态上的霸权地位。

And because it depend on on being ideologically hegemonic.

所以CCB和BTC之间，你说得对，这确实是一种真正的对立，比如在二十世纪初，德国的摇摆选民是德国工人。

So CCB versus BTC, you're right that there's like, that is a genuine polarity because, you know, for example, in the early twentieth century, the swing vote in Germany was like the German worker.

苏联会以工人的身份吸引他们，而纳粹则会以德国人的身份吸引他们。

Like, the Soviets would appeal to them as a worker, and the Nazis would appeal to them as a German.

所以一方是以阶级为基础，另一方则是以种族为基础。

So one was appealing on the base of, like, class, and they're appealing on the base of race.

对吧？

Right?

那曾经是关键的摇摆选民。

And that was like the swing vote.

在最近这次选举中，像非裔美国人、女性美国人或同性恋美国人这样的群体，自由派会以他们的种族、性别或性取向来吸引他们，而川普派则会以美国人的身份来吸引他们。

With this last election, somebody like the black American or female American or gay American, the Wolkes would appeal to them as black or female or gay, and the Magus would appeal to them as American.

对吧？

Right?

那曾经就是中间派的摇摆选民，对吧？

That was like the swing vote, right, in the center.

明白吗？

Okay?

我认为，在即将到来的时代，摇摆选民实际上是中国的科技工作者。

And I think in the dispensation that is to come, the swing vote will actually be the Chinese technologists.

因为中国会以种族为基础吸引他们，而互联网会以阶级为基础吸引他们。

Because the Chinese will appeal on the basis of China will appeal on the basis of race, and the Internet will appeal on the basis of class.

对吧？

Right?

所以这常常是一种情况。

So that's often a kind of thing.

你明白我的意思吗？

Like, you see what I'm saying?

对吧？

Right?

就像对啊。

Like Yeah.

有时候是左派基于种族或基因来吸引选民，尤其是在多数群体中。

Sometimes it's the left that appeals on the basis of in in the case of the bulks, they'd appeal on the base of race or genetics.

而MAG实际上是基于阶级来吸引人，指的是美国阶级的成员身份，你知道的，这就像一种软件层面的东西，而种族则更像是硬件层面的东西。

And the MAG is actually were appealing on the base of class in the sense of membership in the American class, you know, which is like a software software thing, thing, whereas whereas race race is is like like a a hardware thing.

你懂吗？

You know?

让我停一下。

Let me pause there.

是的。

Yeah.

也许吧。

Maybe.

我的意思是，我首先会对你说埃隆击败了麻省理工这个观点感到疑惑。

I mean, I wonder I mean, first, I would wonder about your idea that Elon has defeated MIT.

我认为埃隆确实击败了某个人，而那个人就是他自己。

I I think Elon has certainly defeated someone, and that someone is himself.

我认为埃隆非常擅长击败自己。

And I think Elon has been extremely adept at defeating himself.

我的意思是，他让自己从联合总裁的位置上退了下来。

I mean, he got himself out of being co president.

特斯拉现在怎么样？

How's Tesla doing?

我不知道。

I don't know.

看起来不太妙。

It doesn't look great.

Axe现在怎么样？

How's Axe doing?

我不确定。

I'm not sure.

我认为《纽约时报》赢了这一轮。

I think NYT's winning this round.

《纽约时报》，但你是这么认为的。

NYT But you think so.

pretty bogota sits it.

Pretty Bogota sits it.

这是某个人去的。

It's somebody who go.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我觉得，你知道，我现在几乎完全不看X了，但我在更多地阅读《纽约时报》。

I mean, I I I think that, you know, I'm I'm almost mostly off x at this point, but I'm I'm I'm reading more NYT.

所以也许我不是目标受众。

So maybe I'm not the target audience.

也许我正在自我挫败。

Maybe I'm defeating myself.

但我也想说，我认为比美国更强大的唯一力量，唯一能击败美国的力量，就是美国自己；而唯一能击败中国的力量，就是中共。

But I would also say that, you know, I think the only force that is more powerful than The USA, the only force capable of defeating The USA is The USA, and the only force capable of defeating China is the CCP.

我看到这两个国家都变得极其擅长自我摧毁。

And I see that both of these nation states have become extremely powerful at beating the shit out of themselves.

我认为这些羞辱性的自我内耗会持续下去，直到士气提升。

And I think these humiliating self beatings will continue until morale improves.

但我觉得，拜登做得太糟糕了。

But I think that, you know, Biden did a terrible job.

特朗普的做法有点末日化，我认为他们有很大机会让美国分崩离析。

Trump is doing is being kind of apocalyptic, and I think they have a good chance of unraveling The United States.

是的。

Yes.

我认为中国一直在驱赶其最聪明的人、最有创业精神的人和最优秀的创意人才离开国家，我认为中共最终也会摧毁这个中国民族国家。

And I think the Chinese have been driving a lot of its smartest people, a lot of its most entrepreneurial people, a lot of its best creatives out of the country, and I think the CCP will also defeat the Chinese ethnostate.

他们会挫败伟大的复兴。

They'll defeat the great rejuvenation.

这就是我的模型。

So that's my model.

我就说到这里。

I'll pause there.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

好的。

Okay.

所以我的看法是，我认为习近平很像上世纪三十年代的罗斯福，从某种意义上说，他是最不坏的，因为有很多事情。

So what I think is I think Xi is a lot like FDR in the thirties where he was the least bad in the sense of, like, there's lots of things.

我的意思是，罗斯福曾将日裔美国人拘禁。

I mean, FDR interned the Japanese.

罗斯福基本上实施了黄金没收。

FDR basically did the gold seizures.

你知道吧？

You know?

FDR本质上是利用政府对抗他所有的敌人。

FDR essentially pushed I mean, he used the government against all of his enemies.

他针对了安德鲁·梅隆。

He went after Andrew Mellon.

他推动将巨额财富转入基金会。

He pushed the great fortunes into foundations.

人们有充分理由指控他，你知道的，推动日本卷入二战等等。

People credibly alleged that he, you know, pushed the Japanese into World War two and so on and so forth.

他连任四届，打破了所有先前的规范，诸如此类。

All kinds of stuff have he ran for four terms, which broke all previous norms, blah blah blah.

FDR做了各种各样的事情。

All kinds of stuff FDR did.

对吧？

Right?

人们认为他让大萧条变得更好了。

People think he made the Great Depression great.

他延长了大萧条。

He prolonged it.

但总的来说，当一切尘埃落定后，美国最终处于相对最强的地位，而且犯的错误最少。

But net net, when all the dust settled, ultimately, The US was in the strongest relative position, and it screwed up the least.

是的。

Yes.

并不是说它没有犯错。

Not that it didn't screw up.

你继续说。

Go ahead.

是的。

Yes.

你继续说。

Go ahead.

对吧？

Right?

在苏联被摧毁、纳粹德国被炸得粉碎的情况下，美国的失误最少。

It screwed up the least out of the Soviet Union, which has gotten killed, Nazi Germany, which has gotten itself blown up.

日本被原子弹轰炸了。

The Japanese got nuked.

美国无论是通过能力、运气还是其他原因，在这些国家中失误最少，因此在那个格局中最为强大。

The US, both both through competence and through luck or whatever, screwed up the least out of them and was therefore the most powerful in that dispensation.

我认为中国有一个强烈的本能，就是导致了‘百年屈辱’——你知道吗，就像一位伟大的创始人会接受较低的估值，但始终保留控制权？

I think China's big instinct that caused the century of humiliation you know how, like, a great founder will take a lower valuation but always preserve control?

对吧？

Right?

我的观点是，你大概能补充一些细节，尤其是看到上世纪八十年代广场协议后日本的经历。

My view, and you can probably fill in the gaps on this, is especially also seeing what happened to Japan with the plaza accords in the eighties.

对吧？

Right?

很多我们的朋友会说，哦，你知道吗，八十年代人们都说日本要超越我们，所以事情也会完全一样发生，我们会以同样的方式超越中国。

Lots of people our friends will say something like, oh, you know, people were saying Japan was gonna beat us in the eighties, and therefore, it'll happen exactly like that, and we're gonna beat China the same way.

但日本不仅仅是输了。

But Japan didn't just lose.

它基本上被摧毁了，因为它就像一个被美国占领的国家。

It was basically killed because it's it's like a US occupied country.

对吧？

Right?

那里有军事基地，你知道的，成千上万的士兵。

There's a military base there, you know, thousands tens of thousands of troops.

日本的宪法是由美国起草的。

Japan's constitution is written by The US.

最重要的是，日本不是一个主权国家。

And most importantly, Japan's not a sovereign.

换一种说法，2017年《纽约时报》发布了一篇文章，称2010年中国在境内击毙了多名美国间谍。

One way of putting that, in 2017, actually, NYT released an article that said in 2010, China had killed a bunch of American spies in in China.

对吧？

Right?

日本永远做不到这一点。

Japan can never do that.

这意味着中国有一些美国看不到的决策过程，而日本则无法拥有。

That means China has deliberations that America can't see in a way Japan couldn't.

因此，日本在广场协议后受到了限制。

And so Japan, with the plaza accords, it was handicapped.

它被迫购买美国国债。

It was forced to buy US treasuries.

它整个十年的停滞期，就是从那时开始的。

Its whole decade of stagnations, you know, began at that point.

而中国对此高度警惕，绝不会重蹈覆辙。

And China's hyperconscious of not going through that.

因此，中国在每一个阶段都尽量少花钱，以维护更多主权。

So China, at all at all stages, it took less money to preserve more sovereignty.

为了维护主权，它在某些方面接受了更不利的条件。

It took worse terms in some ways to preserve.

对吧？

Right?

因此，由于这种本能，比如构建防火墙，当它禁止外国社交媒体并建立自己的系统时，就承受了所有这些打击。

So because of that instinct, that wall building you know, for example, it took all these hits when it banned foreign social media and it built its own.

对吧？

Right?

它不断承受这些公关打击，却仍愿意这么做以维护主权。

All these PR hits constantly, and it was willing to do that to preserve sovereignty.

我认为，无论好坏，这都将成为本世纪一项富有远见的决策。

I think that's gonna end up being the farsighted decision for better or worse in in this century.

比如，你看到乌克兰在俄罗斯领土上操控无人机的情况了吗？

For example, do you see what happened with Ukraine where they're scripting drones on Russian soil?

没有。

No.

那是什么意思？

What what what does that mean?

几个月前，乌克兰人成功让一些爆炸无人机在俄罗斯境内启动并炸毁目标。

So, like, a few months ago, the Ukrainians managed to, like, have some exploding drones activate within Russia and go blow things up.

对吧？

Right?

所以他们能从那边控制这些设备。

So they could they could control things from over there.

对吧？

Right?

在我看来，这意味着——其实我十二年前就讨论过这个，但现在它真的变成了现实。

So in my view, that means and I and I talked about this actually twelve years ago, but now it's actually becoming real.

数字边界和物理边界本质上是一回事。

Digital borders and physical borders are like the same thing.

对吧？

Right?

你们的防火墙在某些方面是一种极具远见的举措，因为它建立了数字上的硬性边界。

Your fire the great firewall will be seen in some ways a very farsighted thing because it is digital hard borders.

人们无法在中国境内操控无人机。

People won't be able to script drones on Chinese soil.

他们也无法在中国境内操控人形机器人。

They won't be able to script humanoids on Chinese soil.

他们也无法向中国境内传播破坏性的迷因或致瘫性迷因。

They won't be able to also send in destabilized memes desabling memes into Chinese soil.

对吧？

Right?

而未经审查的英语圈互联网则会充满各种剪辑言论和疯狂内容，正像我们目前看到的那样，让所有人都陷入疯狂。

Whereas the unmoderated anglospheric Internet will just be filled with all of these scissor statements and crazy things that are all driving everybody crazy as we're seeing.

是的。

Yes.

因此，中国也因此得到了保护，因为人们只说中文。

And so China's also insulated against that because people only speak Chinese.

所以，习近平已经把英语从学校课程中取消了。

So and and Xi has taken English out of the schools.

所以他们有多重防火墙，可以悠闲地喝着绿茶，而其他国家的人们却在互相争斗，随着美元的衰落而陷入混乱。

So they've got multiple levels of firewall, and they can just sip green tea, and everybody is shooting each other in other countries as the dollar goes away.

我觉得这是一个相当有说服力的观点。

Think that is a reasonably compelling idea.

我认为

I think that

我有个问题想问，但你先说吧。

I have a question for this, but but go ahead.

说吧，说吧，继续。

Go go go.

我觉得中国人真正领悟了拿破仑的名言：胜利属于不犯错的一方。

Feel like the Chinese are they've really taken Napoleon's maxim to heart that the game goes to he who does not lose.

显然，拿破仑

Now, obviously, Napoleon

什么都不做就能赢的梗。

The do nothing win meme.

拿破仑赢了几乎所有的战役，但他只是输掉了滑铁卢和另外几场。

Napoleon won, like, nearly all his battles, but he just lost Waterloo and a couple of others.

对吧？

Right?

然后他输了，而且输得很惨。

And then he lost, and he lost he lost badly.

对吧？

Right?

所以我认为中国人非常致力于不输。

And so I think the Chinese are very intent on not losing.

当然，我也看到一些中国人做得不错的地方。

And there is certainly some good things that I see that the Chinese are doing.

我的意思是，我同意回头来看，伟大的防火墙是一个明智的决定。

I mean, I agree that the Great Firewall, in retrospect, looks like a good decision.

你会遭受很多公关打击。

You take a lot of PR hits.

但正如我在其中一封信中所写，当国会定期把扎克伯格、推特和其他人叫去国会，指责他们的产品很糟糕时，很难说中国在2010年代后期真的想要互联网。

But as I wrote in one of my letters, it becomes really difficult to say that the Chinese really wanted the Internet in the late twenty ten's when Congress was regularly dragging Zuckerberg and Twitter and everyone else into Congress to say, your products suck.

你们正在毁掉我们。

You're destroying us.

你们正在杀死我们，老兄。

You're killing us, man.

所以，我认为你不能告诉中国人，你们真的需要这些产品进入你们的国家。

And so, you know, I think like you can't tell the Chinese you really need these products in your state.

我觉得这很有道理。

I And think that makes a lot of good sense.

我关注一下当今人工智能的发展情况。

I take a look at what is going on with AI today.

上周我们有了Sora，能够生成极其逼真的视频，朋友们告诉我，他们的家人根本无法分辨这是AI生成的片段，对吧？

Last week we have Sora too, and we were able to produce like hyper realistic slop that friends have told me that their family members were not able to distinguish that this was an AI generated cameo, right?

我觉得这简直不可思议。

And I think that's kind of incredible.

我们为什么如此专注于发布这些东西？

Like why are we so focused on releasing this stuff?

这似乎是一些人工智能实验室在完全没有考虑国家和民众实际如何使用这些技术的情况下做出的疯狂决定。

And this seems like crazy decisions being taken by the AI labs without any real consideration for how state, how the people might actually use it.

因此，某种程度上，我觉得中国只想保持绝对稳定，关上天朝的大门，让蛮夷们自相残杀，吃点年糕，喝点绿茶。

And so there is a sense in which I think that China just wants to be totally stable, and then close the doors of the celestial empire, and then let the barbarians tear each other apart, and eat some mochi balls, and then drink green tea.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这听起来不错。

I mean, that sounds good.

但我认为这里有个问题，那就是唯一能伤害中国的力量就是中共，我在我的书里写过他们如何实施清零政策。

But I think that there is a problem here, which is that the only force capable of hurting China is the CCP, which I mean, in my book, I write about how they Zero COVID.

他们实施了清零政策，还有独生子女政策，当时他们真的非常愚蠢，以一种极其刻板、死板的方式思考问题。

Had zero COVID, and they had the one child policy, in which they were really dumb, and they were really autistic about thinking in such literal minded terms.

哦，如果我们人口过剩，就会面临生态灾难。

Oh, there's gonna be ecological doom if we have overpopulation.

解决方案是每对夫妇只生一个孩子，然后在这段时间内进行三亿次堕胎。

The solution is one child per couple, and then conduct 300,000,000 abortions over this period.

或者，哦，我们根本不在乎那些需要化疗或透析治疗的人。

Or, oh, we don't care about people who need chemotherapy or need dialysis treatment.

我们唯一关心的是阻止新冠病毒的传播，因此我们将不惜一切代价阻止病毒传播。

The only thing that we care about is preventing the spread of the COVID virus, and so we are going to prevent the spread of the virus at all costs.

所以，我认为，正是这些思维刻板的工程师们，不会放过普通人。

And so, you know, here is where I think the engineers with their literal mindedness will not be able to leave the people alone.

我认为，对中国来说最好的情况是，中共整天喝着绿茶，干脆放任人民自生自灭。

I think the best case scenario for China is if the CCP decides to spend all day sipping green tea and then just leave the people alone.

但我不认为他们会这么做。

And I don't I don't think they're gonna do that.

我认为他们会想出新的、独特的方式来自己毁掉这个国家。

I think they're gonna figure out new and novel ways to destroy the country themselves.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

这很有趣，因为我先要为中国的立场辩护，然后再反驳中国。

So it's interesting because I wanna make the case for China, and then I'll make the case against China.

对吧？

Right?

但我的意思是，假设一个论点有v1、v2、v3、v4几个版本。

But that's to say, let's say there's, like, v one, v two, v three, v four of an argument.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what mean?

我觉得你和我可能已经处在v4阶段了，但让我先从v1、v2开始，这样我们才能理解这个演进过程。

I think maybe you and I are on v four, but let me let me let me do the v one, v two to get to our progression.

对吧？

Right?

因为你得先面对那些不成熟的论点，然后再应对更高级的论点。

Because you go to unsophisticated arguments against the sophisticated one.

对吧？

Right?

好的。

Okay.

所以第一个观点是那种天真的看法，认为那就是中国共产党。

So the v one is kind of the naive, like, that's a Chinese communist party.

他们认为中国人都是毛主义者，存在强迫劳动等等。

They're you know, and people think they're all Maoists and it's slave labor and so on and so forth.

或者认为他们仍然是意识形态上的毛主义者。

And that's also that's a or that they're still the ideological Maoists.

他们对中国的认知非常过时。

They've got a very outdated view of what China is.

他们看到中国城市，反应是：天啊。

They see the Chinese cities, and their response is, oh my god.

城市里都是LED灯。

There's LEDs on the cities.

他们没意识到，这些城市三十年前根本不存在。

They don't realize the point is the cities didn't exist thirty years ago.

对吧？

Right?

而且它们其实非常干净、美丽，或者类似这样。

And they're actually very clean and and beautiful or whatever.

然后是v2类型，我并不是在攻击他，但比如说像X平台上的阿尔诺·贝尔特朗，或者卡尔·扎，他们基本上就是说：‘欢迎我们的中国新主人。’

Then the v two is I'm not attacking him, but let's say somebody like Arnaud Bertrand on x, right, or Carl Za, which is basically, you know, I welcome our new Chinese overlord.

就是那种会说出这种话的人。

Someone someone who will say something like that.

对吧？

Right?

他们的论点类似于：美国一直在中东制造破坏。

And it's like their case is something like America's been blowing up the Middle East.

而中国则在非洲进行建设。

China's been building up Africa.

美国只是为富人提供救助型经济。

America just has a bailout economy for the wealthy.

中国则为所有人带来共同繁荣。

China has shared prosperity for everybody.

中国没有发动过任何战争。

China hasn't started any wars.

美国却在发动所有这些战争。

America's starting all these wars.

中国内部团结一致。

China's internally united.

美国则完全分裂。

America's are fully divided.

而且，实际上，这些关税政策下，中国一直在接连达成贸易协议。

And, actually, also with these tariffs, China's been doing trade deal after trade deal.

顺便说一下，这也正是我认为小米、比亚迪、DGI等公司的市值可能会上涨的原因，因为中国市场的准入范围随着习近平近期签署的一系列贸易协议而扩大，而这恰恰是关税政策逆转的结果。

And by the way, that also is why I think Xiaomi or, you know, BYD, DGI, their market caps will probably rise because Chinese market Chinese market access has expanded as a function of all these trade deals that, you know, Xi has recently inked as a function of the reverse thing on the tariffs.

好的。

Okay.

然后是V3。

Then the v three.

所以第一个观点是，你知道，美国还停留在1945年。

So that is like the first is, you know, USA is still 1945.

它会赢的。

It's gonna win.

中国很糟糕。

China sucks.

第二个观点其实是，中国非常强大，而且很好。

The second is actually China's super strong, and it's good.

一切都会好起来的。

Everything will be fine.

V3的观点基本上是：美国在1945年到1991年间整体上比苏联更好，但赢得冷战后，它逐渐变得越来越差，开始轰炸他人、滥用权力等等。

The v three argument is basically The US was on balance better than the Soviet Union from '45 to '91, but then after it won, it became by degrees worse and worse and worse behaved and started bombing people and abusing its power and so on.

我认为其中一个角度是，在国内，中国是一党制，但在国外，它却像两党制，因为受到美国的制衡。

And one way I think about it is at home, China's a one party state, but abroad, it's a two party state because it's checked by America.

相反，美国在国内是两党制，有民主党和共和党，但在国外却像一党制，因为它 unchecked，到处发动战争。

Conversely, America at home is a two party state with Democrat, Republican, but abroad was a one party state where it blow up everybody because it wasn't checked.

这种视角对理解过去三十年左右的局势挺有意思的。

It's interesting way of thinking about the last thirty years or so.

对吧？

Right?

现在美国正在回归本土，因为如果它的国防战略是认真的，那就意味着要从亚洲撤回军队。

And now America's coming home because, you know, it's the national defense strategy, if it's real, says pulling troops back from Asia.

也就是说，它正在从帝国转变为一个普通国家。

Like, it's becoming a country, not an empire.

它正在放弃帝国的负担，就像苏联解体一样。

It's giving up the imperial burden like the end of the Soviet Union.

所以坏的一面，也就是v三观点，是China将以一种拥有无制衡权力的方式扩张。

And so the bad part, the v three, is China will expand in such a way that it actually has unchecked power.

而且，例如，如果没有其他国家发出的信号，中国的清零政策根本不可能被取消。

And even, for example, zero COVID would never have actually been undone in China without the signal from other countries.

因为海外华人知道，清零政策在其他国家行不通，因为其他国家已经采取了不同做法，这种外部信号确实在某种程度上传入了中国，人们意识到中国人不必这样生活，这本身就是一种信号。

Because the Chinese diaspora knew that zero COVID wasn't working elsewhere because other countries were you know, that that external signal was certainly filtering into China in some ways, And people were aware that Chinese people didn't have to live like this, and that was part of the signal.

我认为另一部分原因是习近平只是想在2022年成功连任，而清零政策某种程度上是用来清除那些对他不够忠诚的人。

And I think another part of it is Xi just wanted to win his reelection in 2022, and zero COVID was sort of a way to winkle out anybody who wasn't super loyal to him.

然后就在那之后，大概是11月，他们突然全面放开了一切。

And then right after, think the November, then they unlocked everything.

所以这根本不是关于清零政策，而是关于第三任期还是第四任期，不管怎么说。

So it wasn't really about zero COVID, was about third term or fourth term, whatever.

你知道的。

You know?

还有任期。

And the term.

所以接下来的第四点基本上会说，好吧。

And so then the v four would basically say, okay.

美国正在走向归零。

The USA is going to zero.

它的债务不是三十六万亿美元。

It's it's not 36,000,000,000,000 debt.

它的债务是一百七十五万亿美元。

It's a 175,000,000,000,000 debt.

美元相对于黄金正在贬值。

The dollar is being devalued against gold.

它相对于比特币贬值了十万倍。

It's dropped by a 100,000,000 x against Bitcoin.

它正在撤回其军队。

It's pulling back its troops.

国内人们正在互相开枪。

People are shooting each other domestically.

它正在告诉北约自己去打仗。

It's telling NATO to go fight for itself.

它实际上是在自我制裁贸易，本质上是从世界事务中撤出。

It's it's basically sanctioning itself on trade, essentially withdrawing itself from world affairs.

你知道吗，你看过铁笼赛吗？

It's like you know, have you seen a steel cage match?

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

想象一下，一道新的铁幕，像一个钢笼UFC八角笼一样笼罩美国，所有人才都被要求回家。

So imagine I imagine like a new iron curtain, like a steel cage UFC octagon thing descending over America, and all talent is told, go home.

所有研究人员都被要求回家。

All the researchers are told to go home.

所有财富正流向互联网，而标普7或数字资产 treasury 公司，标普493却持平。

All the wealth is getting going to the Internet, whereas S and P seven or the digital asset treasury companies, S and P four ninety three is flat.

美国国债已跌至零。

US treasuries are down to zero.

相反，所有的制造业和军事力量都集中在中国，因为那里有机器人和无人机，而媒体和资金则全部流向了互联网。

And, conversely, all the manufacturing and military is in China because of robots and drones there and all the media and money is on the Internet.

现在，北美就像一个巨大的钢铁笼子，充满了叫喊和枪击。

And now North America is just this gigantic steel cage match with all the shouting and all the shooting.

这就像二十世纪欧洲大陆在共产主义统治下的情况，令人遗憾。

And it's like, basically, what the Eurasian Continent was under communism, unfortunately, in the twentieth century.

各种疯狂的人互相开枪，军阀混战，苏联解体，塔吉克斯坦内战，所有这些事情都正在向北美蔓延。

All kinds of crazy people shooting each other, warlord era, collapse of Soviet Union, Tajikistan, civil war, all that kind of stuff, and things coming to North America.

所以，在V4时代，基本上就是如此。

So in the v four is basically, okay.

在这个世界里，需要某种力量来平衡中国的无人机舰队。

In that world, something needs to balance the Chinese drone armada.

因为中国将会变得极其、极其、极其、极其、极其强大。

Because China will be insanely, insanely, insanely, insanely, insanely powerful.

它的实力将达到美国巅峰时期的五到十倍。

It'll be like five or 10 x America at its peak.

这是因为它的势头实际上越来越强了。

It will be because it's it's actually hitting more steam.

中国的产能过剩意味着有无数的零件从地里冒出来。

Chinese overproduction just means, like, so many widgets popping out of, you know, the ground.

它们仍在持续增强势头。

They're they're they're still gaining steam.

对吧？

Right?

就像这个国家还没有完全发展起来。

Like, the country still hasn't been fully developed.

因此，中国将成为有史以来最强大的实体力量。

And so China will just be the most powerful physical force to have ever existed.

而如今，许多美国人还没有在心理上进入这个世界，因为他们仍然认为美军依然存在。

And right now, many Americans aren't mentally living in that world because they still think like the US military exists.

对吧？

Right?

但美国军队不幸地被胡塞武装击败了。

But the US military has been, unfortunately, beaten by the Houthis.

北约正在被俄罗斯击败。

NATO is being beaten by Russia.

如果北约能被俄罗斯击败到与普京进行和平条约谈判的地步，那中国轻松是俄罗斯的十倍。

If NATO can be beaten by Russia to the point that there's peace treaty talks with Putin, China's like 10 x Russia easily.

你知道，哈格说过，中国的高超音速武器可以击沉所有美国航母。

You know, Hag said this said, Chinese hypersonics can sink all US aircraft carriers.

对吧？

Right?

美国海军部长说，一个中国船厂生产的舰船数量超过整个美国海军的总和。

The secretary of the navy said one Chinese shipyard makes more ships than the whole US navy combined.

对吧？

Right?

雷神公司的首席执行官表示，你无法与中国脱钩。

Raytheon's CEO has said, you can't decouple from China.

那么，有什么能平衡中国的大规模无人机群呢？

So what can possibly balance a Chinese drone armada?

我认为，美国那种靠拳头硬拼的思维方式，是一种非常浪漫的二十世纪观念，根本无法对抗中国。

I think the entire American mentality of, like, fighting with your fist and so on and so forth is a very romantic twentieth century thing that can't be done against China.

因此，你实际上需要一种完全不同的东西——甘地式的非暴力、去中心化、敏捷性和隐蔽性，必须与这种庞大的力量截然不同。

So you actually need something totally different, which is Gandhian nonviolence, decentralization, agility, invisibility, something totally, totally different against this enormous force.

所以，这就是我对V4的看法。

So that's where I'm at with, like, v four.

让我先停一下，因为刚才说的内容太多了。

Let me pause there because that was a lot.

我想听听你的想法。

That'll make I'll get your thoughts.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得我的问题是，我现在已经到了V73，它和V1有惊人的相似之处，我觉得自己莫名其妙地又回到了蛇梯棋的起点。

I think my my problem is that I'm on, like, v 73, and it has a remarkable convergence with V1, and I think I've kind of horse shooed my way back into the start of the snakes and ladders.

我觉得这一点上，你说得对，两者确实都带有一种负面元素，这正是我想说的：你提到MAGA吸引的是作为美国人的同性恋者，而不是作为同性恋者的同性恋者。

I think this is, I think, I mean, you're right that there is kind of this negative element with both of them, and this is where I I would I mean, I think about how you say that MAGA was appealing to the gays as Americans rather than as gays.

我觉得这有一定道理，但MAGA也非常热衷于界定内部敌人，而且他们很可能希望把更多同性恋者关进监狱。

I I I think there is something to that, but there is also you know, MAGA is also very interested in defining who the internal enemies are, and probably they're throwing they would like to throw more of the gays in jail.

他们说

And they say

在2025年，是的。

In '25, yes.

也许在2024年。

In 2024 Maybe.

直到选举之前，他们的信息完全是另一回事。

It was it was a very different message up until the election.

然后在2034年就变了，是的。

Then shifted '34 yeah.

你继续说。

Go ahead.

我的意思是，当你听到像‘遗产美国人’这样的词时，我首先想到的是，当你说到‘遗产美国人’，我会想到一顿盛大的感恩节晚餐，中间摆着一只大火鸡。

Well, I mean, I when you hear these terms like heritage Americans, first, I think of, like when you say heritage American, I think of, like, a giant Thanksgiving dinner that's with a big turkey in the middle.

你知道，我觉得这些词都相当奇怪。

And, you know, I think that it's just these very strange sort of terms.

我同意，美国人似乎在自我施加一道铁幕，这感觉真的很奇怪。

I agree that there is kind of this iron curtain that the Americans are self imposing on themselves, And that feels really strange.

也许让美军从世界其他地方撤出，放弃帝国负担是好事，但我认为把大量韩裔工程师——我们就叫他们韩国工程师吧——驱逐出境并不好，他们正努力建设

And maybe maybe it's good for the troops to withdraw from the rest of the world and give up the imperial burden, but I think it's not good to deport a lot of South Korean engineers, or let's just call them Korean engineers, who are trying to build

美国人的遗产问题。

the issues, heritage of Americans.

没错。

That's right.

并且用锁链羞辱他们。

And humiliate them in chains.

这完全是自取其辱。

That is totally a horrible own goal.

我总是非常清楚，中国人自己也会给自己制造麻烦。

I'm just always very conscious of the ability for the Chinese to impose own goals for themselves as well.

如果他们整天喝绿茶就好了，但他们就是闲不住，总要插手每一件事。

Now it would be great if they spent all day sipping green tea, but they can't leave anything alone, and they just constantly have to meddle in everything.

美国是凯恩斯主义的吗？

Is America Keynesian?

是的，也许吧。

Yeah, sure, maybe.

但根据亚当·图兹的说法，中国人要凯恩斯主义得多。

But the Chinese are, according to Adam Tooze, just so much more Keynesian.

他们把一切都凯恩斯化了，对吧？

They Keynes everything, right?

我觉得这是一种无休止的干预心态。

And I think that there is kind of just this endless meddling mentality.

让我再提出一个更广泛的观点：我认为美国和中国正处于竞争之中，而不是一方拥有所有结构性优势，我不认同这种说法。

And let me just make a broader point, which is that I think The US and China are in competition, and rather than one country having all of the structural advantages on its side, I think I wouldn't agree with that characterization.

我认为美国完全可以指出自身拥有的这些巨大优势。

I think that The US can very credibly point to these amazing strengths that The US has.

我认为中国也可以指出自身的这些巨大优势，特别是这些威力强大的无人机群。

I think China can also point to these amazing strengths, namely these drone armadas, which are very powerful.

但如果你想要聚焦于美国最糟糕的一面，你当然可以描绘出一幅可怕的图景，中国也同样如此。

But there's also you can if you wanted to focus on the most ugly parts of America, you can definitely paint a horrible picture just as the same with how you can do that with China.

因此，我对这一切的思维模型是，这是一场长期的竞争。

And so my mental model for all of this is that this is a long term competition.

不会有任何一个国家会彻底崩溃，无法像戈尔巴乔夫那样将苏联推向终结后又重新崛起。

There will be no country that completely implodes and fails to get up get back up in the way that Gorbachev did really kinda drive the Soviet Union.

好的。

Okay.

所以这是个重大的分歧。

So that's that's a big difference of opinion.

但你先说完，我再发表意见。

But just finish your saying, and I'll say something.

说吧。

Go.

我认为，当一个国家领先时，往往会变得自满并犯下许多错误。

I think that, you know, when one country is ahead, it is going to get overconfident and make a lot of mistakes.

因为我亲身经历了中国在2020年底和2021年初的情况，那时习近平觉得自己站在了世界之巅。

Because I felt like I lived through this in China when at the end of 2020 and the start of 2021, Xi Jinping felt like he was at the top of the world.

他成功控制了新冠疫情，而美国却没有做到。

He was able to control COVID in which The US was not.

1月6日事件刚发生，中国看起来像是一个极度稳定、经济繁荣的地方。

January 6 just happened, and China looked like it was like a super stable, economically prosperous place.

那他决定做什么呢？

What does he decide to do?

打压大量科技公司，摧毁房地产行业，同时还对新冠疫情管控得过于严苛。

Smash a lot of tech companies, destroy the real estate sector, and then also hold on too tightly to COVID.

我认为这正是自满的典型错误。

I think that is a classic mistake of overconfidence.

而且可以说

And arguably

但这是不是呢？让我们从2025年的角度来分析一下。

Was it but was it because let's analyze it now from 2025.

好的。

Okay.

好的，你继续。

Key Go ahead.

三条红线本质上是对房地产泡沫进行了一种受控的拆除。

The three red lines essentially were sort of a controlled demolition of the real estate bubble.

它实际上并没有彻底摧毁经济。

It didn't actually fully crash the economy.

他打击了电子游戏产业。

He went after the video games.

他还打击了课外辅导，当时课外辅导领域出现了红皇后效应。

He went after after school tutoring, which there was a Red Queen phenomenon after school.

他确实打击了各种人群，比如企业家之类的。

He definitely hit all kinds of people on you know, you know, entrepreneurs and so on.

但先进制造业的转型是成功的。

But advanced manufacturing, the transition into it did work.

我知道你在书里提到过‘小粉红’的说法，但也许他们其实是对的，因为他避开了美国的‘火经济’，也就是金融、保险和房地产。

I know you mentioned the little pinks in your book say this, but maybe they're actually right because he avoided the fire economy, you know, finance, insurance, real estate of The US.

他没有过度深入其中，只是戳破了泡沫，似乎并没有造成太大损害。

He avoided going too far into it, popped it, doesn't seem to have it caused some damage.

我的意思是，换个角度想，如果把国家看作一个平台，而公司则是运行在上面的应用程序，对吧？有时候扎克伯格会对Facebook的API做出重大变更，比如当年就曾破坏了Zynga这样的公司，你还记得吗？

I mean, one way of thinking about it, if the country you know, rather than talking about it in a very ideological terms, if the country is like the platform and the companies are like the apps on that platform, right, sometimes Zuck will make like a breaking change to the Facebook APIs and break Zynga, for example, if you remember when they did that.

对吧？

Right?

因为当时Zynga在信息流里刷屏太严重了。

Because it was spamming the feed too much.

我对Zynga或者其他公司没什么意见。

Nothing nothing against Zynga or whatever.

你只是在为最多人带来最大利益而做这个决定。

You're just making that decision the greatest good for the greatest number.

比如，Zynga 有它自己的运作方式，但从长远来看，这太多人被僵尸之类的内容刷屏了。

Like, Zynga is working in its own way, but long term, this is spamming too many people with zombies or whatever it is.

所以，实际上，不是的。

So, actually, no.

我们不希望有 Zynga。

We don't wanna have Zynga.

我们要把 Zynga 推进它自己的归档收件箱，就像垃圾邮件收件箱那样，等等。

We're gonna push Zynga into its own archived inbox, like a spam inbox, and so on and so forth.

同样地，如果他掌控了中国平台的根权限，他会说：其实，我们不想要这些应用。

And so in the same way, if he's like got he's got root over the Chinese platform, he's like, actually, we don't want these apps.

我们不想要这些应用，就像我们不想要太多先进制造业那样，而后者似乎已经奏效了。

We don't want any more than we want the advanced manufacturing stuff, which seems to have worked.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，如果对我们经济来说唯一重要的是先进制造业，那我坚持认为制造业几乎是全部，谁也别想让我改变这个立场。

I mean, if if the only thing that matters to our economy is advanced manufacturing, and I am going to let no one talk me down from my stance that manufacturing is almost everything.

所以我认为制造业真的非常重要。

And so I think that manufacturing is really important.

但他不仅伤害了大量电子游戏。

But he didn't only hurt a lot of the video games.

也许，是的，你应该管控电子游戏。

And maybe, yeah, you should control the video games.

你应该管控社交媒体。

You should control the social media.

你应该管控短视频应用。

You should control the short form video apps.

你应该管控人工智能垃圾内容。

You should control the AI slop.

坦白说，美国人应该在所有这些方面做得更多。

Frankly, the Americans ought to do more on all of these different things.

他还打压了像马云、约翰这样的人

He also smacked around people like Jack Ma, people like John

打压真正的实干家。

Yankin Real guys.

还有其他人。

And other people.

对吧？

Right?

所以这也相当重要。

And so that's pretty important too.

因此，我认为仍然有必要翻过《华尔街日报》的商业版面，再往后翻到经济版面。

And so this is where I think that it is still important to flip a few more pages, past the business pages of The Wall Street Journal into the economics pages.

因为青年失业是真实存在的。

Because youth unemployment is real.

失业问题确实严重。

Tomping is real.

你提到通货膨胀是弗里德曼所说的那个水平吗？

You talk about inflation being what's the Friedman line?

通货膨胀是一种税收。

Inflation is a taxation.

通货膨胀是未经立法的税收。

Inflation is taxation without legislation.

未经立法。

Without legislation.

而且我认为，是的，通货膨胀是坏事。

And I think, you know, yeah, inflation is bad.

但可能比通货膨胀更糟糕的只有通货紧缩，而中国人还难以摆脱这种状况。

But the only thing that might be worse than inflation is deflation, which the Chinese are not quite able to get out of.

而C是个典型的婴儿潮一代，他会问：为什么人们讨厌通货紧缩？

And c is kind of this boomer who says, why do people dislike deflation?

难道人们不喜欢更低的价格吗？

Don't people like lower prices?

如果你是个投资者，那就不是了

Not if you're an investing

好吧，这里是我想要和你争论的地方。

Well, here's where I'll here's where I wanna argue with you.

说吧。

Go.

我来说。

I'll go.

你说我会

You're saying I'll

好吧。

Alright.

让我再补充一点，我认为，那个最终领先的国家将会犯下各种由过度自信和傲慢驱动的错误，而这正是我认为她大部分时候所做的事情。

Well, let me let me just make one more point, I is think that, you know, the country that's going to be ahead is going to make all sorts of mistakes driven by overconfidence and hubris, which is what I think, for the most part, she did.

我认为，对房地产行业的有控制的去泡沫化摧毁了人们对住房的大量信心，建筑活动仍未恢复，而且我们仍可能因为所谓对房地产行业的有控制的去泡沫化而遭遇某种奇怪的金融危机。

I think that the controlled demolition of the property sector destroyed a lot of confidence in housing, and construction activity is still not back, and we still might get some sort of a weird financial crisis because of the supposedly controlled demolition of the of the property sector.

我认为这并没有像我们希望的那样被有效控制。

I think that this was not as controlled as we'd like to believe.

可以说，美国变得过于自信，正是这种自信让它自己陷入了一场自相残杀的僵局。

And arguably, can say that The United States grew overconfident, which is how it imposed this octagon upon itself to make people destroy each other.

这是过度自信造成的错误。

That's a mistake of overconfidence.

但你领先得越多，就越容易犯这类错误；你落后得越多，就越关注弥补自身的不足，这就是为什么我认为这场竞争会长期处于胶着状态，因为我们不能仅凭结构性优势来评判一场竞赛。

But the more that you're ahead, the more you'll make these sort of mistakes, the more that you're behind, the more that you're interested in patching up your deficiencies, which is why I think this is gonna be kind of a neck and neck race for a very long time, because we can't just look at a race based on structural advantages.

随着进程推进，人们会跌倒、踉跄，并更加奋力拼搏。

As it goes on, people will trip up and stumble and fight harder.

好的，这就是我的世界观，也是我与你观点分歧的几个关键点。

Okay, so here is my worldview and where I disagree with you on is basically a few things.

首先，我不确定美国作为政治实体还能维持多久。

First is, I don't know if The US has that much longer to live as, like, a coherent political entity.

我认为我们正处在类似苏联解体的边缘。

I think we're on the verge of a end of USSR type scenario.

达利奥将这种情况描述为债务心脏病。

Dalio describes this as a debt heart attack.

马斯克认为政府不会存在太久。

Elon thinks the government isn't gonna last very long.

你看到黄金正在取代美国国债。

You're seeing gold flipping US treasuries.

例如，如果你看了那张图表，黄金正在取代美国国债成为各国的储备资产，而比特币相对于它的涨幅更是超过了千万倍。

For example, if you saw that graph, gold is flipping US treasuries as reserve asset of states, and certainly, Bitcoin has risen more than a 100,000,000 x against it.

你知道，美国已经不再是像过去那样成为全球百万富翁的首选目的地了，直到2019年，美国还吸引了上万名百万富翁。

There is you know, The US has not become the debt like, The US used to be the number one destination for global millionaires up to 2019, plus 10,000 millionaires.

2020年之后，这个数字下降了85%。

After 2020, it dropped 85%.

至今仍未恢复。

It hasn't recovered.

全球百万富翁的资金已转移到迪拜和新加坡，分别位列第一和第二。

And global millionaires capital has relocated to Dubai and Singapore, number one and number two.

这些百万富翁也离开了中国，但中国再生他们的速度非常快，所以对他们来说，情况基本上还算稳定。

They've left China as well, a good chunk of those millionaires, but China regenerates them so fast in a you know, that that it's actually it's it's basically seemingly fine for them.

我认为，中国的观点是，新一代的20岁年轻人只会说中文。

And China's view, I think, is that the new up and coming generation of 20 is speaks purely Chinese.

他们使用的全是中文应用。

They have purely Chinese apps.

他们会成为纯粹的中国民族主义者。

They'll be Chinese nationalists.

与那些对西方还有些同情的40岁一代或更年长的千禧一代企业家不同，他可能会说：你知道吗？

And unlike the 40 that have some sympathy for the West, a lot of these Gen X or older millennial entrepreneurs, he's like, you know what?

你们怎么不走呢？

Why don't you guys go?

这没关系。

And it's fine.

马云可以去日本当老师之类的，做他现在在做的事，而中国其他人可以接手运营。

Jack Ma can be a teacher in Japan or something like that, what he's, you know, doing, and somebody else in China can run that.

我们这里有十亿中国人。

We've got a billion Chinese people here.

对吧？

Right?

这基本上是习近平的赌注，他认为他可以不需要这些老一代的中国企业家。

That's essentially Xi's bet that he can do without these sort of older Chinese entrepreneurs.

现在他只想要那些在习近平思想、中国应用软件环境中成长起来的年轻一代，他们认为中国第一，瑞幸比星巴克好。

And now he just wants those, the younger ones who have grown up on Xi Jinping Thought and all the Chinese apps and think China's number one and Luckin is better than Starbucks.

也许他们是对的。

And maybe they're right.

比亚迪在中立市场上的销量已超过特斯拉。

BYD is outselling Tesla in neutral markets.

小米能在苹果还没推出时就成功交付汽车。

Xiaomi is able to ship a car when Apple wasn't.

TikTok需要国家全面介入，而谷歌、脸书等公司的联合努力也无法击败TikTok。

TikTok needed total state intervention, and the combined efforts of Google and Facebook and and so and so forth couldn't beat TikTok.

DJI是全球最便宜、规模最大的无人机制造商。

And DGI is the cheapest and largest scale drone manufacturer in the world.

最终，你知道，美国在海外根本无法与中国竞争，除了可能的埃隆，但就连埃隆也处境艰难。

And in an end, you know, like, essentially, The US can't compete with China abroad with the exception of maybe Elon, and even Elon is having a tough time.

在任何中立市场，中国产品都能胜出。

In any neutral market, Chinese products win.

因此，美国只能退而求其次，试图通过关税和建立关税壁垒来保护自己，但从中长期来看这注定会失败，因为民主党人可能会背离这一政策。

And so The US has retreated to just trying tariff and build tariff barriers around The US, which is gonna fail in the medium to long run because the Democrats may defect from that.

比如，纽森就说过，嘿。

Like, Newsom has said, hey.

如果你们看到了，他可能会从中国进口商品。

Maybe he'll import goods from China if you saw that.

对吧？

Right?

这就是为什么我说，美国并不是美国。

Like, that's why I say America, it's not The United States.

这只是美国。

It's just United States.

蓝色美国有自己的外交政策，与红色美国不同，纽森、沃尔斯和希拉里·克林顿都曾暗示，他们可能希望比共和党人更亲近中国。

Blue America has its own foreign policy distinct from red America, and Newsom and Walls and Hillary Clinton have all signaled that they may wanna align more with China than than the Republicans do.

你知道，你看纽森的事情，不只是他们为习近平清理了旧金山。

Like, you know, you saw the thing with Newsom and how it wasn't just that they cleaned up San Francisco for Xi.

关键是，纽森是唯一一位获得与习近平会面机会的民主党人。

It was that Newsom was the only Democrat to get the meeting with Xi.

你还记得吗？

Do you remember that?

是的。

Yeah.

我的看法是，很多美国人并不知道，在中国，你不能像奥巴马或特朗普那样直接跃升至总统职位。

My view on that is, again, a lot of Americans don't know this, like, within China, you you can't just jump straight to the presidency like Obama or or Trump.

你必须从当一个村庄的市长开始，然后成为省长，一路晋升，最终进入中央委员会。

You have to go from, like, you know, mayor of a village and then governor of a province and all the way up and you make it to central committee.

因此，习近平认识到纽森有着从旧金山市长到加州州长，乃至可能成为总统的相似路径，因而视他为一个可信的潜在人选。

And so Xi recognized Newsom as having a similar path going from San Francisco mayor to California governor to possibly president, so recognized him as a credible possible person.

当纽森在中国时，他表示希望成为中国的长期稳定且强大的伙伴。

And when Newsom was in China, he said he wants to be China's long term stable and strong partner.

我认为，在美元终结之后，这将是维系蓝营与红营最后的一根纽带，因为只有4%的民主党人会与共和党人结婚。

My view is that after the dollar ends, that's the last strand that's holding blue and red together because blues only 4% Democrats marry Republicans.

民主党人当然不会投票给共和党人。

Democrats certainly don't vote for Republicans.

民主党人甚至不再与共和党人交谈了。

Democrats don't even talk to Republicans anymore.

他们各自生活在自己的蓝色天空与……你知道的，那种割裂状态中。

They're in their own blue sky versus x, you know, kind of thing.

数字分离已经发生了。

Digital secession's already here.

他们现在甚至开始互相射击、互相炸毁。

They're now starting to shoot each other, blow each other up.

不幸的是，如今每天在X平台上都会出现新的杀人、疯狂爆炸事件。

There's a new killing, crazy blowing up thing on x every single day nowadays, unfortunately.

所以，维系这一切的最后一张纸，难道不是人们常说的，它不是一个国家，而是一个经济区吗？

And so last piece of paper that's holding this thing together, it's not you know how people say it's not a it's a country, not an economic zone?

你在X上看到过那种帖子吗？

You've seen that kind of post on x?

是的。

Yes.

它实际上是一个经济区，而不是一个国家。

It's actually an economic zone, not a country.

因为唯一维系它的，就是这张叫做美元的纸。

Because the only thing holding it together is this piece of paper called the dollar.

一旦这张纸撕裂，不幸的是，就再也没有什么能把蓝派和红派维系在一起了。

And when that tears, unfortunately, there's nothing keeping blue and red together.

如果失去了华盛顿特区，民主党人会站在习近平一边。

And Democrats will side with Xi if they don't have DC.

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，我不确定。

Well, I don't know.

我的意思是，为什么习近平要会见纽森州长？

I mean, I why why would Xi wanna meet governor Newsom?

这人长得简直就像《美国派对》的男主角。

This is a guy who looks exactly like the lead actor in American Psycho.

如果他来这儿，对我来说很危险。

If this came here, it's dangerous for me.

这太奇怪了。

That's just weird.

我认为，比起纽森州长，更愿意给习近平一个热情拥抱的人是唐纳德·特朗普总统。

And I think there is someone who is more willing to give a bear hug to Xi Jinping than Governor Newsom, that is President Donald Trump.

我是说，我正在为一篇我正在写的报道搜集这些引述，当时特朗普对《华尔街日报》说，习近平非常聪明、才华横溢，几乎完美无缺。

I mean, was digging up these quotes for an article I was writing in which Trump told the Wall Street Journal, Xi is so smart, brilliant, everything nearly perfect.

好莱坞里没人像他这样，就好像习近平拥有汤姆·克鲁斯那样的帅气，我刚刚才发现。

There's no one in Hollywood like this guy, as if, like, Xi Jinping had, like, Tom Cruise levels of handsomeness, which I I find out.

温迪，但特朗普是不可预测的，他会这么说一个人，然后贬低他们，接着又回头这么说。

Wendy but but Trump is unpredictable because he'll say that about someone, he'll insult them, then he'll come back and say it.

现在，他正试图给习近平一个热情的拥抱。

Well, right now, he's trying to bear hug Xi Jinping.

所以，你知道，我觉得你说得对。

And so, you know, and it so, you know, I think you're right.

我的意思是，也许不止一件事能让民主党人和共和党人团结起来。

I mean, maybe there is more than one thing that unites Democrats and Republicans.

那才是那份报纸。

That's the paper.

更准确地说，这是一种对习近平的爱慕。

Rather, it's like a love of Xi Jinping.

你怎么看？

What do you think about that?

有趣的是，几年前人们都说，唯一两党共识就是反华。

What what's interesting is a few years ago, people were saying the one bipartisan issue was being anti China.

对吧？

Right?

我认为，民主党之所以反华，是因为他们在争夺谁才能掌控这个最强大的国家。

My view is Democrats were only anti China because there was a contestation for who would run the most powerful state.

简单说，首先中国冲击了制造业，从而扰乱了红色美国。

Like, basically, first China disrupted manufacturing, so disrupted red America.

然后在2020年之后，中国似乎成了最强大的国家。

Then post 2020, it seemed to become the most powerful state.

于是蓝色美国开始全力对抗它。

So then blue America really fought it.

而最近，科技界终于开始意识到：等等，中国的AI模型实际上已经能和我们一较高下了。

And now recently, finally, tech America, which always had a sense of superiority versus China, has finally started to see, wait, Chinese AI models are actually giving us a run for the money.

中国的机器人技术其实非常出色。

Chinese robotics are actually really good.

这是科技界第一次真正认真对待中国，不只是像TikTok这样的个别案例，而是真的让人震惊。

And for the first time, tech America is actually taking China seriously, not just one off like TikTok, but actually, woah.

实际上，中国的科技公司并不仅仅是模仿者。

Actually, the Chinese edge shares aren't just copycats.

它们确实是创新者等等。

They're actually innovators and so on.

这一直是科技界的看法——美国科技界一直觉得自己占据优势，但现在这个优势可能正在减弱。

That's that's always been the thing which tech is you know, American tech has felt they've had the edge, and now that edge is maybe slipping.

所以我认为，从近乎本能的层面来看，普通红州美国人（不是特朗普本人）对中国有着更强烈的本能反感，而民主党人则有点讽刺地说。

So I think, though, at almost a genetic level, I think red Americans at the base, not Trump, have a more visceral aversion to China, whereas Democrats it's funny to put it this way.

这是一句俏皮话。

This is a one liner.

明白吗？

Okay?

但民主党人和中国都是天然的共产主义者，所以这只是一个笑话。

But Democrats and the and China are both natural communists, so they'll be that's a that's a joke.

明白？

Okay?

但确实存在国家主义者。

But there's, you know, there's statists.

对吧？

Right?

民主党人愿意在一个多民族帝国中担任管理者，因此他们可以在习近平的体制下找到某种契合点。

There there Democrats are willing to be administrators in a multiethnic empire, and so they could find something under the Xi dispensation.

就像你知道的，委内瑞拉是一个功能失调的盗贼统治国家，但靠中国商品勉强支撑着。

Sort of like you know how Venezuela is like this dysfunctional kleptocracy, but it's sort of bailed out with Chinese goods.

中国愿意与伊朗原教旨主义者、新加坡的精英统治者、委内瑞拉的盗贼统治者以及俄罗斯东正教势力合作，只要他们不干涉中国内政。

China's willing to, as you know, is willing to work with, you know, Iranian fundamentalists and Singaporean meritocrats and Venezuelan kleptocrats and Russian orthodox so long as they don't interfere in Chinese internal affairs.

对吧？

Right?

所以我认为他们会支持民主党，通过向他们输送商品这种方式来支持他们——你有没有看过关于‘软分离’的那件事？蓝州正在这么做。

And so I think they will support the Democrats and just ship them goods and support them in this way as the have you seen this thing on soft secession that the blues are doing?

对。

Right.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

在这种软分离中，他们只是从中国通过西海岸港口获得商品。

So in that soft secession, they just get goods from the West Coast ports from China.

他们不执行关税。

They don't enforce the tariffs.

我认为很可能发生类似的事情。

I think it's very likely something like that happens.

纽森谈过这件事。

Newsom has talked about it.

我甚至不是在推断这一点。

I'm not even, you know, inferring this.

说吧。

Go ahead.

我不知道。

I don't know.

拜登、民主党人，这个来自特拉华州的人，另一个潜在的港口城镇。

Biden, democrats, this guy from Delaware, another potential port town.

费城有个港口。

There's a port of Philadelphia.

约瑟夫·拜登当总统时，这个港口并没有给他带来多少好处。

Didn't get a lot of didn't do a lot of good for Joseph Biden when he was president.

而且

And

但但但拜登出生于1942年，特朗普出生于1946年左右。

But but but Biden Biden is 19 born 1942, and Trump's born 1946 or something like that.

所以，如果你从宏观角度看，他们俩都是来自美国东北部、在巅峰美国时期出生的粗犷、爱动手的家伙，他们成长时觉得美国在一切方面都理所当然地排名第一，拜登甚至会说：‘我们可是美利坚合众国啊，看在老天的份上。’

So they're actually both if you zoom out, they're both, like, you know, coarse, handsy guys from the Northeastern US born at the time of, like, peak America who grew up thinking The USA is number one on everything effortlessly, and Biden would say things like, we're The United States Of America for Pete's sake.