本与马克：为何一切即将迎来十倍增长

你几乎不可能在投资时用数学方法验证这一点，但正是这一点让那些表现卓越的项目真正脱颖而出。

Like, you you can almost never validate that with math at the time of the investment, but that's the thing that makes the outperformers, you know, really go.

而且，我和本在职业生涯中看到越来越多的例子，发现我们或他人犯的错误是：哦，Uber和Lyft的市场一定就是出租车市场的规模。

And and I just I just think, like, as as Ben and I kinda go through our careers, we just see more and more examples where the mistakes that we or others make is, oh, this must be a you know, the markets for Uber and Lyft must be the market for taxi cabs.

对吧？

Right?

或者，你知道，市场啊。

Or, you know, the market yeah.

或者，云软件的市场一定和本地部署软件的市场一样大。

Or or the market for cloud software must be the same as the market for for for for on prem software.

对吧？

Right?

或者，或者市场

Or or there are Or the market

GPU的市场就是喜欢玩游戏的人的市场。

for GPUs must be the market for people who like to play games.

是的。

Yes.

没错。

Exactly.

我们不断看到一个又一个例子，当供应方出现足够重大的技术或产品变革时，就会解锁更大的市场。

And we just keep seeing example after example after example where the, significant enough technology change, product change on the supply side unlocks much larger markets.

我认为这将成为——坦白说，这将是未来三十年投资领域最主导的趋势。

And I and I think that's gonna be the I I mean, frankly, frankly, that's gonna be like the single, like, dominant trend in investing for, the next thirty years.

我觉得这将会极大地扩展开来。

I think that that's just gonna, like, telescope way out.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得这非常有趣。

I think it's it's so interesting.

对吧？

Right?

从技术角度来看，感觉你可以立即构建出会获胜的产品。

Because from a technology perspective, it feels like you can build products pretty immediately that are gonna win.

在这种情况下，16Z就变得更有意义了，因为所有这些其他因素都随之而来。

And then a 16 z starts to make a lot more sense in that context where it's like all of these other things.

你怎么进入市场？

It's how do you do go to market?

你怎么处理政策？

How do you do policy?

你如何为真正最好的技术尽快获胜创造条件？

Like how do you set the conditions for the actual best technology to win as quickly as possible?

你如何思考那里需要做的各种事情？

Like how do you think about all the different things that you do there?

这是正确的思考方式吗？

And is that the right way to think about it?

最好的技术应该获胜，而平台的作用就是确保这一点发生？

Like the best technology should win and the platform is there to make sure that that happens?

我们一直以来对这家公司的理解是，合伙人能为创业者提供什么，不仅能帮助他们确保成功，还能帮助他们按照自己想要的方式，与自己想合作的人，建立自己引以为豪的文化和公司。

You know, the way we always thought about the firm was what can a partner do for an entrepreneur that will not only help them ensure their success, but help them kind of build the company they want to build and the way they want to build it with the people they want to build it with, and the culture that they're proud of.

要做到这一点，涉及很多很多方面。

And to do that, there's many, many pieces.

其中很多部分，有些只是非常基础的问题，比如：你能在美利坚合众国开展业务吗？

And a lot of it know, some of it is just like very fundamental, like can you do your business in The United States Of America?

你能在全球范围内开展业务吗？

Can you do it in the world?

这就是政策所涉及的地方。

And so that's where the policy comes in.

这只是一个非常基本的问题。

It's just like a very basic question.

当然，如今政府对技术有着巨大的兴趣，因此这个问题是必不可少的。

And look, governments have a huge interest in technology these days, so it's a necessary one.

其他很多方面则关乎你如何从一个发明家转变为一名称职的首席执行官，这本质上是一场信心的博弈，姑且这么说吧——当你完全不知道自己在做什么时，要管理一家组织是非常困难的，而发明家一开始恰恰就是这样。

A lot of the other things come down to how do you go from being an inventor to being a competent CEO, and that really is a confidence game, for lack of a better word, and that it's very difficult to run an organization when you don't know what you're doing, which nobody does when they're an inventor.

你会收到大量的建议，而这些建议往往非常糟糕，几乎完全违背了你应该做的事情。

And you get tremendous amount of advice, and advice that's often extremely bad, and almost the opposite of what you should be doing.

真正亲手打造过东西的人寥寥无几，而且他们也没时间跟你聊天。

And there are very few, like the people who've actually built things don't have time to talk to.

他们通常都在埋头做事。

They're often away building things.

于是你就会遇到一些顾问和硅谷人士，告诉你如何经营公司、该雇谁、该做什么、不该做什么。

So, you get these advisors and Silicon Valley people who tell you how to run your company, who to hire, this and that and the other.

结果这些 advice 都被证明是错的，你就会陷入一种信心恶性循环。

And then those things turn out to be wrong, and you get into this confidence spiral.

因此，整个公司体系的设计就是为了让你进入一种良性信心循环，而不是恶性信心循环。

And so, the whole firm is built to put you in a kind of a virtuous confidence cycle as opposed to a vicious confidence cycle.

这意味着，我得联系那些很难约到的人，比如一位重要的首席执行官，或者我得招募一位顶尖工程师，或者我得弄清楚如何推广我的产品，或者我得接触政府里的重要人物。

And that means, oh, I need to call somebody who's hard to get to, like an important CEO, or like, you know, I've got to recruit a top end engineer, or I have to figure out how to market my product, or I have to get to somebody important in the government.

如果我能做到这些，我的信心就会增强。

If I can do that, my confidence builds.

如果我做不到，我的信心就会下降。

If I can't do that, my confidence sinks.

因此，一旦你有了信心，你就能更快地做出决策，更有效地建设公司，追求你真正想要的东西，并确信自己想要的才是正确的，而不是被耳边那些人——无论是CEO教练、风险投资人，还是其他什么人——悄悄灌输的想法所左右。

And so, then, once you're confident, you can make decisions faster, you can build the company more effectively, you can go for what you actually want, you can have confidence that, okay, what I want is the right thing, as opposed to what somebody's whispering in my ear, you know, who is whatever, a CEO coach or a VC or this or that or the other.

因此，整个公司旨在帮助这位发明家成长为CEO，自主经营公司，并通过能够与任何人建立联系，不仅在本地，更在全球留下自己的印记。

And so, the whole firm is designed to kind of enable that inventor to become a CEO and run their own company and put their mark not just locally, but in the world by being able to kind of network to anyone.

所以，这正是我们所专注的大部分内容。

And so, that's a lot of what we're about.

是的，我还想从宏观层面、外部视角补充一点。

Yeah, and I'd just add the sort of macro, you know, kind of outside in lines on that.

我们有机会与这些超级天才合作，但他们特别擅长的是打造产品、开发技术。

It just, like, you know, we we we we get to work with these, you know, super geniuses, but they're specifically, are super geniuses at building products, building technologies.

要成为技术领域的超级天才，通常意味着你已经在一个实验室里，或在屏幕前，坐了十年、二十年。

You know, to be a super genius at building technologies generally requires you to have been sitting in a lab or, you know, in front of a screen for, you know, ten or twenty years.

这些人都完全有能力理解整个世界的方方面面。

You know, they they just they they have they're they're you know, these folks are fully capable of understanding everything about the world at large.

他们只是还没做过而已。

They just haven't they just haven't done it yet.

他们只是还没走出去过。

They just they they just haven't been out.

他们还没接触过所有人，也没处理过现实世界中的各种问题。

They they haven't met all the people, they haven't dealt with all the issues in the real world.

因此，这导致了一种反复出现的、我称之为误解的情况。

And and so that that leads to this kind of recurring, you know, kind of, I would say, misimpression sometimes that that that that people have.

就好像，只要你做出了正确的产品，比如实现了突破性的某个X Y Z小工具，世界自然就会接受它。

It's just like, well, if you just if you build the right product, you know, if you build the breakthrough, whatever x y z widget, like, it's just the world is obviously gonna adopt it.

每个人都会使用它。

Everybody's gonna use it.

它显然会自然而然地适应各种需求。

It's it's just obviously gonna, you know, kinda suit things.

如果它没有成功，那答案就是产品还不够好。

And, you know, if it and, basically, if if it doesn't, the answer is the product's not good enough.

而且，你知道，这种说法也有点道理。

And, you know, there's there's a little bit of truth to that.

比如，显然产品越突破、越创新，就越容易获得自然的用户增长。

Like, obviously, the better the more breakthrough the product, you know, the more there'll just be organic traction.

但几乎所有人的实际经验，包括埃隆·马斯克在内，都是如此。

But what virtually everybody finds, you know, up up to and including Elon Musk.

对吧？

Right?

大家实际发现的是，现实世界真的非常庞大，而且极其混乱。

What what what everybody finds is the real world is just, like, really, really big and really, really messy.

对吧？

Right?

世界上有80亿人，他们的观点未必和你一致。

And there are, you know, 8,000,000,000 people out there with, like, opinions that are not necessarily, you know, your opinions.

而且，其中许多人对你的产品和公司的发展方向拥有真正的发言权，比如是否有人购买你的产品，以及所有那些影响结果的未知因素——人们会以各种方式试图阻碍你的事业。

And, you know, many of them have a real vote as to what is gonna happen with your product and with your company, you know, including whether anybody buys, you know, your thing or, you know, all of the x factors that kick in, you know, to all the different ways that, you know, people are gonna come and try to, you know, cripple what you're doing.

或者，你知道，甚至更糟的是，干脆无视你。

Or or, you know, or or maybe even worse than that, you know, just ignore you.

对吧？

Right?

所以，这个世界上真的有一个非常庞大的世界。

And so there is this there there is this just there is this really big world out there.

它非常复杂。

It's really complicated.

它非常混乱。

It's really messy.

它并不一定支持新想法。

It's not necessarily in favor of new ideas.

在许多情况下，它非常不喜欢新想法，甚至想拒绝它们。

In many cases, it really, really doesn't like them and wants to reject them.

这其中确实需要一种真正的艺术与科学，你知道，是的。

And there there are there's real art and science, you know, to yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

正如本所提到的，围绕产品和创始人构建公司，使创始人能够将突破性成果成功推向世界。

To to Ben's point, to building the company around the product and the founder to be able to take the breakthrough and be able to take it successfully into into the world.

据我所知，这个过程正变得越来越复杂和棘手。

And and as far as we can tell, like, as far as I can tell, like, that that process is getting, you know, hairier and more complicated over time.

对吧？

Right?

这并没有变得更容易。

It's it's not getting easier.

反而看起来变得明显更困难了。

It's it's seems like it's actually getting significantly harder.

因此，这正是我们公司致力于解决的核心问题之一。

And so, yeah, that's that's a big part of what the what the firm is built to Yeah.

它真正帮助创始人应对并克服这些挑战。

It's really helped founders, you work through that.

马克过去曾提到过一件事，非常真实：作为发明家，你追求的是力量，一种动力的提升。

And one of the things that that that Mark said in the past, which is really true, is, like, look, as a as an inventor, you're looking for power, like a power boost.

那么，我该如何从一个平凡的自己和我的发明，变成这个领域里举足轻重的公司，能够积累势能，吸引顶尖工程师，更快地获得客户，从而形成滚雪球效应，一路顺势而下？

So how do I go from little old me with my invention to, like, I'm the important company in the space in the world, I can build momentum, I can get the best engineers, I can get the customers faster, and that turns into a snowball and I'm rolling downhill.

因此，整个公司就是设计成一个强大的实体，你可以直接借助它，利用我们的品牌、人脉和专业能力，迅速变得极其强大。

And so, the whole firm is designed as like a very powerful entity that you can just tap into and, you know, take our brand, take our connections, take our expertise, and become extremely powerful very fast.

是的。

Yeah.

顺便说一句，这正是长期以来人们对我们感到困惑的问题的答案：哇。

And by the way, this this this, you know, this this is the solution to puzzle that people have had about us for a long time, which is, wow.

这些人看起来好像特别爱宣传。

It seems like those guys are, like, you know, awfully promotional.

你知道，他们总是做各种营销工作。

You know, they're they're, you know, they're they're, you know, they do all this marketing stuff.

他们还做各种政治性的事情。

They, you know, they're doing all this politics stuff.

你知道，他们这么做一定是出于虚荣心。

You know, they they must be doing this for ego reasons.

他们一定特别自我膨胀。

They must be really fall themselves.

你知道，这一定是为了证明自己有多厉害。

You know, this must be about, know so much shit.

触及了某些东西，整个事情就是这样。

Touched certain shit like the whole thing.

至少，也许也许也许，我们可能说得太多废话了。

And at least, you know, for maybe, maybe, maybe, maybe it's possible possible we talk too much shit.

我会来评判这一点。

I'll judge that.

时不时地，也许吧。

From time to time, maybe.

然而，从一开始，建立主导性风险投资品牌的目标，就是为了在公司发展的最关键时刻，让它们能够借用我们的影响力，从而借助我们的全球力量作为弹射器，来构建自己的力量。

However, however, from the beginning, the goal was to build the the purpose purpose of of building building the the dominant venture brand was precisely to be able to have the companies be able to borrow that as at the most critical points in their development so that the companies can can can kinda use use use our force in the world as a slingshot to basically build their own force.

而且我觉得这效果非常好，所以我们不会退缩，不会回避这些事情。

And and I think that's worked really well, that's why we don't, you know, shrink back a lot of these things.

是的。

Yeah.

我想插一句话，然后马上回到这个话题上。

I I wanted, like, just squeeze something in and then get right back on this conversation.

说太多闲话真的很有趣，但我真的很喜欢这一点。

Talking too much shit is so interesting, but I really love it.

我刚开始和加密团队合作时，最让我印象深刻的是，他们从不在个人层面接受负面评价，从不诋毁任何技术、创始人或公司——你该怎么训练出这种态度？

Think the thing that impressed me the most when I started working with the crypto team was seeing never take the negative in person and, like, never talk shit on a technology, never talk shit on a founder, never talk shit on a company, like, how do you even train for that?

因为这真的、真的让我印象深刻。

Because that really, really impressed

我们就是这么训练的。

Well, we train for that.

我们就是这么训练的。

We train for that.

所以我们有一个成文的文化，任何人要想加入公司，都必须签署这份文化文件，承诺遵守这一文化。

So, we have a culture that is written culture that you cannot join the firm unless you sign document, the culture document, and says you will adhere to this culture.

然后你必须花一小时和我一起深入了解这种文化。

And then you must sit through one hour with me understanding the culture.

从根本上说，我们的核心理念是：如果你希望做超越自我的事，让世界变得更好，我们百分之百支持。

And fundamentally on that, our whole point is if you want to do something larger than yourselves and make the world a better place, we are 100% for it.

而我们根本不关心。

And we do not care.

比如，如果在当下我们认为你犯了错误，或者觉得你的想法不够好，这无关紧要——无论我们是否投资你。

You know, like if in the moment we think you're making a mistake or like the idea isn't good enough, and it doesn't matter if we invest in you or don't invest in you.

我们支持你这么做。

We're for that.

我们是梦想的建设者。

We are dream builders.

我们不是梦想的毁灭者。

We're not dream killers.

我们来这里不是为了当那种自以为是的分析达人，靠贬低别人来抬高自己。

We're not here to be like the analytical smarty pants who makes ourselves look smart by making somebody else look stupid.

这正是我们看待世界的根本方式。

And that's just that's fundamental to how we think about the world.

所以，任何试图推动世界进步、让它变得更好的人——无论我们是否认同他们的方法，我们都支持。

So, like, anybody who's trying to push the world forward and make it better, like, whether we agree with their method or not, like, we're for it.

因此，在你加入之前，我们只是要求你认同这个理念。

And so, we just ask you to sign up to that idea before you ever join.

凯瑟琳说，我们认为未来，并以这种方式押注公司，这应该是文化文件中的首要价值观。

Catherine said that, you know, we believe in the future and bet the firm that way should actually be the number one kind of value in culture doc.

顺便说一句，那是马克的主意。

By the way, was Mark's.

你知道，措辞是我写的，所以我给自己一点功劳。

You know, I did the wording, so I give myself a little credit.

但那是马克的想法。

But that was Mark's

理念。

idea.

做

Do

你认为这在实践中应该是第一位的吗？

you think that should be number do you think that is number one in practice?

你认为以一流的方式经营一流的企业是吗？

Do you think first class business in a first class way is?

如果你今天重写这份文件，公司里最重要的东西是什么？

Like, if you were to rewrite the doc today, what is the most important thing in firm?

我的意思是，文化文件列出了七件事，你知道的，而文化远不止这些。

Well, I mean, the culture document is seven things that, you know, and the culture is more than that.

每种文化都远不止七个理念和七组行为。

Every culture is more than seven ideas and kind of seven sets of behaviors.

但这七项是我们真正期望每个人践行的。

But those are the ones that, all seven of them, that we really expect everybody to live to.

所以，我不确定是否要按某种顺序排名，因为它们都是相互关联的。

So, don't know if I rank them in that sense, because they all go together.

它们是一个整体的一部分。

They're part of a single thing.

所以，我们相信未来，意味着我们相信那些创造未来的人，也就是说，我们不会批评他们，也就是说，我们不会站在对立面去攻击他们。

So, know, we believe in the future, means that we believe in the people who build the future, which means we're not going to criticize them, which means, you know, we're not going be on the attack side of that.

我们永远不会攻击未来。

We're never going to attack the future.

我们会努力去创造，当然，我们在构建未来的过程中会遇到问题，但我们会尽力打造最好的未来。

We're going to try and make, you know, there are going to be problems with how we build the future, but we're going to try and make it the best future we can.

我们不会试图活在过去。

We're not going to try and live in the past.

如果你一直攻击创业者，就做不到这一点。

And so, can't do that if you're attacking entrepreneurs all the time.

如果你去见试图创业的人时迟到了一小时，也做不到这一点。

You can't do that if you show up an hour late to meet with somebody who's trying to build a company.

你不能做这种事。

You can't do those kinds of things.

所以，我认为文化的一部分在于支持我们想要创造一个更美好的未来。

And so, part of the culture, I think, is in support of, we want to build a better future.

这就是我们在这里的原因。

Like, is, that's why we're here.

哈伯在他的文章《公司大于基金》中提到，公司是致力于构建复利型竞争优势的实体。

Haber, in his piece, Firm Kinda Greater Than Fund, talks about, you know, a firm is something that tries to build a compounding competitive advantage.

他举了阿波罗和高盛各自的一个例子。

And he points to one thing for Apollo, one thing for Goldman.

如果你必须选一个，你在积累的是什么？

If you had to pick a thing, what are you compounding?

你认为在这里，你长期构建的竞争优势是什么？

Like, what is the competitive advantage that you're you're building over time, you think here?

声誉。

Reputation.

声誉。

Reputation.

从我们创立公司那天起，韦马克和我就一直在讨论这一点。

Way Mark and I talked about that from the day we started the firm.

顺便说一句，曾经有一段时间，我们觉得我们在声誉上投入了太多，但确实花了很长时间，不过这正是我们竞争的核心。

And and by by the way, there were times when it was like, well, we're investing an awful lot in reputation, and, you know, it's taken a while, but it is that's what we compete on.

当我们跟创业者交谈，他们把我们和其他公司做比较时，我们会说：去找那些同时接受过这两家机构投资的创业者，听听他们怎么说。

Like, when we talk to an entrepreneur and they're comparing us to another firm, we say, Find an entrepreneur that's taken investment from both firms, see what they say.

这对我们来说就是对所有问题的回答。

Like, that's our answer to everything.

我们打造声誉。

We build reputation.

每一个关系都很重要。

Every relationship matters.

我们接触的每一个人，我们都尽量接触尽可能多的人，并以最优秀的方式去代表自己，长期积累声誉，这种声誉会在创业者之间、在各个行业、各个领域、从政府人员到我们未投资的公司中不断复利增长——任何在科技领域的人，我们都希望他们了解我们，并认为我们是与之合作的最佳公司。

Everybody who we touch, we try and touch as many people as we can, and we try and represent in the very, very best way possible to build reputation over time, and that compounds and compounds and compounds across entrepreneurs, across industries, across sectors, across everybody from people in the government to people in companies that we don't invest in, anybody who is anywhere in the world of technology, we want them to know us, and we want them to think of us as the best firm to do business with.

是的。

Yeah.

然后，这自然会从我们传递到投资组合公司。

And then that and then that transfers, of course, that that transfers from from us, that transfers to the portfolio companies.

对吧？

Right?

所以，这正是我们的目标：当一家公司接受我们的投资时，他们实际上可以利用我们的声誉，帮助自己度过关键的成长阶段——无论是面对潜在客户、招聘人才、后续投资者、监管机构，还是外部社会中的各种力量。

So the which is the goal of it, which is that then as a consequence, when a when a company takes investment from us, now they they're basically able to use our reputation to get themselves through the it's through those those those, you know, kinda key growth phases with, you know, with with potential customers and with recruits and with downstream investors and with, you know, regulators and with, you know, all all these different, you know, forces in the external society.

因此，声誉的回报不仅体现在我们自身，更体现在我们的投资组合公司因此能够实现的成果上。

So the the the the reputation pays off not just for us, but it pays off in the form of, what our what our portfolio companies are able to do as a result.

既然你已经从事这项工作十六、十七年了，那么在建立和传递声誉的过程中，你有没有学到一些并不显而易见的经验？

So having done this for sixteen, seventeen years, like, are are there things about building and transferring reputation that you've learned that are not obvious?

因为对我来说，这几乎就像一块电池。

Because to to me, like, it would almost seem that it's a battery.

如果你把声誉给了某一家公司，而它搞砸了，整个声誉体系就可能崩塌。

And if you give it to one company that messes it up, then the whole thing kind of falls apart.

但事实上，这可能就像爱一样，其实特别廉价。

But actually, maybe it's like love to be, like, super cheap.

你给予得越多，它就越增长。

Like, it just grows the more you give it.

你还有没有其他类似这样的发现？

Are there other things like that that that you've learned?

嗯，我认为这个洞察是正确的，因为你知道，一个错误的影响力远大于一次善举。

Well, look, I do think that that's a correct insight in that, you know, one mistake is much more powerful than, you know, one good deed.

所以，如果公司里有一个人行为粗鲁、对创业者撒谎，或者做类似的事情，造成的损害远超过你正确做事五次或十次所能弥补的，因此你必须对此保持高度警惕，绝不能容忍这种行为。

So, you know, one person being obnoxious who's in the firm or lying to an entrepreneur or doing something like that causes much more damage than you can do by doing that correctly, you know, five or 10 times, which is why you have to be so vigilant about it, like you cannot tolerate that kind of behavior.

但我认为我学到的最重要的一点是，建立声誉需要很长时间，但一旦建立起来，它就是最强大的资产。

But I think that the biggest thing that I've learned is it takes a long time to build a reputation, but once you do, it's the most powerful thing.

它真的会不断积累放大。

It really does compound.

举个例子，当马克和我筹措第一支基金时，那是一支3亿美元的基金。

And just to give you an example, look, when Mark and I raised Fund One, it was a $300,000,000 fund.

我觉得筹集资金花了大约六个月。

I think it took about six months to raise.

我们开了很多会。

We had a lot of meetings.

我都数不清开了多少次会议。

I can't count how many meetings.

有些人对我们不太好，就像特朗普可能会说的那样。

Some people did not treat us very well, as Trump might say.

他们根本没好好待我。

They didn't treat me well at all.

非常差劲。

Very badly.

这次募资，当我们实际完成基金募集时，金额是150亿美元，我认为马克做了一次AMA，我也做了一次AMA，我不记得自己还参加了其他任何关于这次募资的会议，整个过程完全依靠声誉完成，这真是巨大的变化，你知道的。

And, you know, this raise, which was $15,000,000,000 when we actually raised the fund, I think Mark did one AMA and I did one AMA, and I don't know that I took another meeting on this fundraise, and it was done on the reputation, and so, that's a heck of a change, you know.

而且说实话，我们并不是不经常和投资者交流，我的意思是，我一直在全球各地建立关系等等，但当我们真正去寻求资金时，完全是依靠声誉完成的。

And look, a lot of not that we don't we talk to our investors all the time, I mean, I've been all around the world building relationships and so forth, but when we came to ask for money, it was raised entirely on the reputation.

我认为，帕基，外部环境已经发生了巨大的变化。

I think, Paki, I think the external environment has changed, you know, enormously.

所以，我们和你以及许多其他人一样，亲身经历了这一切。

And so, you know, we've we've lived this, you know, as you have and many others.

我们见证了这一巨大的转变：科技如今比2009年我们起步时要大得多、也重要得多，同时，全世界对科技的参与度也达到了前所未有的水平。

We've, know, this incredible transformation where tech both is, like, much, much, much larger and more central now than it was in 2009 when we started, but also, you know, the the level of, let's just say, engagement on the on the part of the world.

攻击的强度——无论是来自批评、质疑，还是对社会影响的正当性问题——都达到了极高的程度。

Attack is, you know, the the level of intensity on everything from, you know, you know, attacks, you know, criticism, you know, by the way, you know, completely justifiable questions, you know, impact on society.

这种强度，说实话，我也不知道该怎么形容。

You know, the the the the intensity level is, you know, I don't know.

这简直像是十六年前的一千倍。

It's like I don't know, it's like a thousand x of what it was sixteen years ago.

所以，我认为，对你提出的问题，我们确实在这两方面都努力应对了。

And so I I think, yeah, you know, I think to your question, I think we've we've really tried to kinda rise to that on both sides.

我们正竭尽全力帮助这些公司达到以前没人敢想的规模。

Like, we're really trying to help these, you know, these companies get to levels of of scale that nobody ever thought was possible before.

但与此同时，我们也在努力帮助他们应对前几代创业者通常不必面对的压力。

But at the same time, trying to help them deal with pressures that previous generations of founders, you

你知道，一般不需要应对的压力。

know, generally didn't have to deal with.

是的。

Yeah.

你似乎独特地——可能是我认识的人中唯一一个——享受参与这些对话的过程。

You seem like you uniquely, maybe of anybody that I know, have fun taking you know, engaging in these conversations.

我在文章中稍微提到了这一点，但就是从局外人的角度来观察这种情况。

And I wrote about it a little bit in the piece, but, kinda stepping outside the situation and viewing it.

我的意思是，在这些情况下，你脑子里在想些什么？

I don't Like, what goes on in your head in these situations?

就像，你真的有看起来那么享受吗？

Like, are you having as much fun as it looks like?

承受这些攻击，会不会对你造成压力？

Does it take a toll ever kind of, like, taking the arrows?

在这种情况下，感觉是什么样的？

What does it feel like in these?

是的，本，你来说吧，本会给出一个理性的回答。

Yeah, Ben, why don't you yeah, Ben will give the rational response.

我会

I'll

我会说

I would say

我的意思是

it's I mean,

有时会很情绪化，因为你了解打造这些东西背后付出的努力，了解建设者们的初衷，也知道它们对世界产生的影响，而当这些攻击以人身攻击等形式出现时，你就会感到无奈，现在人人都以为马克是犹太人。

gets emotional from time to time, right, because you know what goes into building these things, and you know the intentions of the people building them, and you know, like, the kind of impact they have on the world, and then to just get, like you know, and a lot of the attacks tend to be in the form of character assassinations and so forth, and now everybody thinks Mark's Jewish.

只是为了能更方便地攻击他，结果人们似乎特别喜欢攻击犹太人，

You know, just so they can attack him more, it turns out people love to attack Jewish people,

是的。

Yeah.

所以我现在介绍自己为是的。

And so I I now introduce myself as Yeah.

我确实把它写在我的推特简介里。

I did have it in my Twitter bio.

我确实把它写在我的推特简介里。

I did have it my Twitter bio.

我的真名是安迪·霍罗维茨，我是犹太人，但我把它删了。

My real name is Andy is is Andy Horowitz, but, and I am Jewish, but I I took it down.

是的。

Yeah.

但我想说，能身处这一切的核心，简直是一种了不起的荣幸。

But I I would say mostly it's just like an amazing thing, an amazing privilege to kind of be in the center of it all.

而且，你知道，随之而来的责任是你必须努力引导世界走向正确的方向。

And, you know, like, and then the responsibility that goes with it that you have to kind of try and help drive the world to the right answer.

但说它是不是‘有趣’我不确定，但它确实很特别。

But, like it's I don't know if fun is the right word, but like it's special.

我们处于一个非常特殊的位置，我认为我们两人都尽力认真对待，并且明白事情会发生，我们会就如何应对某些事情、如何不应对某些事情、哪些问题我们可以表态、哪些问题我们不应该表态进行非常长时间的讨论。

It's like we've gotten to a very special position, and I think both of us try and take it as seriously as we can, and know, like things happen, and we have very, very long discussions about how we should react to certain things, how we should not react to certain things, what we can take a position on, what we shouldn't take a position on.

而且，能在这个人生阶段谈论这些，而不是像我们当年打造Netscape或Opsware时必须讨论的问题，这真是太棒了。

And, just to just to begin at this stage of life to be able to be talking about that as opposed to the things that we had to talk about when we were building Netscape or Opsware, like it's amazing.

我知道我 definitely 想交换它。

You know, I definitely want trade it.

而且，到目前为止我们已经被批评得太多了，有趣的是，这反而让公司内部的人比马克或我更在意。

And look, we've been criticized so much at this point that like it bothers interestingly, which I never thought I'd see, it kind of bothers people inside the firm much more than it bothers Mark or me.

当然。

Sure.

而且我目前正在为自己的成年礼学习。

And and I am just on the record studying for my bar mitzvahs.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

一半的托拉。

The half Torah.

你需要学习你那一半托拉的吟诵调。

You you need to learn your your half Torah tropes.

是的。

Yeah.

怎么

How

在这一点上，你们如何避免变成一家大公司？

do you avoid at this point becoming a big company?

比如，如何避免成为一个庞大的组织。

Like, is becoming a big organization.

你们如何避免变成一家大公司？

How do you avoid being a big company?

谷歌就希望避免这种情况。

Google wanted to avoid that.

比如，每个人都想避免这种情况。

Like, everyone wants to avoid that.

你到底该怎么做到这一点呢？

How do you actually do that?

是的。

Yeah.

所以，我认为这很大程度上是组织设计的问题。

So, think a lot of that is organizational design.

我的意思是，如果你看看那些很长时间都不像大公司的企业，它们在组织架构上都有着非常、非常、非常周密的设计。

I mean, So, if you look at the companies that didn't feel like big companies for a long time, they had very, very, very thoughtful design to the organization.

如果你看看那个团队——加密团队、基础设施团队、应用团队或美国活力团队——它们都感觉像小公司。

If you look at the firm, the crypto group or the infra group or the apps group or the American Dynamism group, they all feel like small companies.

它们是规模较小的公司，但拥有特定类型的支持，比如品牌、融资和其他方面的支持。

And they're smaller companies with a very specific kind of support know, in terms of the brand, in terms of fundraising and other kinds of things.

但融资团队是一个小团队，每个小组都与其他小组高度自治。

But the fundraising team is a small group, and every group is very autonomous from every other group.

比如，存在一些整合点，但都非常简单。

Like, there's integration points, but they're very simple.

因此，大部分情况下，有些比其他的更复杂。

And so, for the most part, there's some that are more complicated than others.

所以，你知道，小地方的美妙之处就在于你能把事情直接办成。

And so, you know, that's what makes it, you know, the beauty of a small place is you can just get shit done.

大机构的好处是你非常有力量，所以我们试图将这两者结合起来。

The beauty of a big place is you're very powerful, and so we try and kind of blend those two.

这花了很多时间，马克和我借鉴了很多东西。

Took a lot Mark and I borrowed a lot.

早期，我们深入研究了惠普，也就是在电脑业务吞噬公司之前最初的惠普，它和我们非常相似。

Early on, we really studied Hewlett Packard, which the original Hewlett Packard, before the computer business kind of swallowed the company was very much like us.

它们就像是公司内部的一系列独立公司，这和我们的模式很像。

They were like a series of companies inside a company, and that's a lot how we are.

你们如何筛选普通合伙人？

How do you vet GPs?

或者看起来，如果整个体系建立在声誉之上，你就必须对负责各个团队的人抱有极大的信任，同时你还得依靠这种去中心化的团队结构来实现规模化。

Or like it seems like you have to put a lot of trust in the people that are running the different teams if the whole thing is reputation but you need to be able to scale by having these kind of decentralized teams.

你们有没有什么独特甚至有点古怪的做法，来确保没有任何一个团队会污染整个体系？

Is there anything that you do there that's that's unique or or weird, that ensures that kind of like no one group can infect the whole?

我认为，首先，要领导其中一个团队，你必须在这里待过很长时间并表现出色，这是最基本的前提。

I think, look, first of all, in order to lead one of those groups, you just have to have been here and performed for a long time, so that's kind of the first thing.

所以我们对你非常了解。

So, we just know you extremely well.

我们不会从外部招聘人来担任这个职位，你不可能从外面直接得到这个职位。

We're not interviewing people for that job from the outside, like you can't get that job from the outside.

然后，由于我们的文化与其他风险投资公司截然不同——无论好坏——我们就是不一样，所以我们现在几乎不再从外部招聘普通合伙人了。

And then, you know, would say because our culture is so different than other venture firms, for better or worse, we're just different, that we don't hire a lot of outside GPs anymore.

我们通常会尝试在人们职业生涯的早期阶段就招募他们，然后逐步培养他们适应我们的模式，总的来说，这种方式对我们来说要好得多。

We generally try to hire people at an earlier stage of their career and kind of grow them into what we do, and that's worked much, much better for us, I would say, in general.

尽管我们所有人，最初那批人，都曾经是从外部加入的。

Although we had, like, all of us came from the outside at one point of the original cast.

这说得通。

That makes sense.

马克，我们快说完了，你曾经说过风险投资会是世界上最后的工作，我记得你因此被批评过。

Kind of winding down here, Mark, you said that, I I think you got shit at one point for saying the VC was gonna be the last job in in the world.

你知道，如果你相信的未来愿景是正确的，而这个机构能延续一个世纪，那么一百年后的16Z会是什么样子、做什么呢？

You know, if you if the vision of the future that you believe is true and this is gonna be an institution that that lasts for a century, like, what does a 16 z look like and do a century from now?

对。

Right.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我想先说，我可能被误引了。

So I'll start with I I believe I was misquoted.

我认为那只是其中一个假设性的思想实验，结果被过度引申了，但我想我不该只为自己辩护。

I I believe we it was a it was one of these, hypothetical, thought experiment things that, kinda got got, overly, extrapolated, but, I I guess I shouldn't just, defend myself.

所以，我当时在那场讨论中想表达的重点是，如果你找来原始对话，会发现那是一场更长的讨论。

So I the point of what I was trying to get across in that discussion, which we you know, I'd say I think if you pulled the original, it's it's a longer form discussion on it.

这其实回到了本早前说过的观点，那就是历史上存在一种反复出现的模式。

I it is goes back to what what Ben said early on, which is there is this repeating pat pattern in history.

我的意思是，我们肯定能追溯到五百年前的例子，这种模式就是：一个怀有梦想、具备深厚领域知识的人，在一个收益不对称的领域中行动，也就是说，风险与回报并存——顺便说一句，这个梦想也可能是错的。

I mean, we we can find examples of it for sure going back five hundred years, is this repeating pattern, which is basically a person with a dream, a person with a deep level domain knowledge and a dream, operating in a domain with asymmetric payoff, right, with with risk and reward where, you know by the way, the the dream may be wrong.

我可以说，他们可能无法实现这件事，但如果他们做到了，回报将不成比例地巨大。

I'd say they may not be able to do the thing, but if they can do the thing, it will it will have disproportionately high returns.

你知道，传统机构——人们通常去那里寻求支持和资金来实现梦想、推动新项目——却往往拒绝，因为银行无法为一项有50%概率获得十倍回报、同时有50%概率失败的项目提供贷款。

You know, the traditional institutional, you know, places people go to get support and funding, you know, for the dream, you know, for for for for new projects, just turn it down because, you know, a bank can't finance you know, a bank a bank can't issue a loan against something with a 50%, you know, 50% chance of a 10 x and 50% chance of failure.

银行根本无法承销这种风险。

Like, bank just can't underwrite that.

所以银行不会这么做。

So a bank won't do that.

大公司，绝大多数情况下，也不会这么做。

Big companies, you know, for the most part won't do that.

几乎没人会这么做。

You know, almost nobody will do that.

但有人怀揣着梦想。

But but somebody has a dream.

当这些梦想成真时，尤其是当你构建了一个包含这些梦想和人物的投资组合时，其预期价值将会非常高。

And then and, you know, when the dream works and especially if you construct a portfolio of those dreams and of those people, you know, then the expected, you know, value on that is is gonna be very high.

这是一件非常特别的事情。

Like like, that's a very special thing.

我曾与泰勒·科恩进行过长时间的对话，他对这一点有着非常深入的思考。

I I've had long conversations with Tyler Cohen, who's very particularly, is very thoughtful on this.

我想他们用的那个术语，我记不清确切的说法了。

And I guess the term, Forget the exact exact term they use.

这有点像是人才筛选者、项目筛选者的结合体，就像我们之前谈到的市场规模那样。

It's like it's it's like some combination of talent picker, project picker, and it's it's this thing, you know, it's like we're talking about earlier about market size.

这是一种既有分析性和科学性，又带有艺术性的行为，因为你在处理人类最原始层面的东西，尤其是在做一件前所未有的事情的早期阶段。

It's this thing where, like, there is an analytical scientific component to it, but there's also, like, an art to it, and there's there's there's some intangible because you're you're dealing with human beings at a very kind of primordial level, you know, kind of it it you know, kind of very early in the process of doing something that hasn't been done before.

坦白说，早期的一个例子就是伊莎贝拉女王资助了哥伦布。

And, you know, quite honestly, like, you know, an early example of this was, you know, Queen Isabella with Christopher Columbus.

对吧？

Right?

我只是在想象那个提案的情景。

And I I was just, I was just I was trying to picture the pitch.

对吧？

Right?

你知道，哥伦布出现了。

You know, Christopher Columbus rolls in.

对吧？

Right?

他说，好吧。

And he's like, you know, alright.

你看，我要找到一条新航线。

You know, here's you know, I'm gonna find a new route.

我们要走通往印度的路线。

You know, we're gonna route to India.

顺便说一下，你知道，大概有百分之五十到六十的概率，你再也听不到我的消息了。

By the way, you know, there's, like, I don't know, whatever, fifty, sixty percent chance that, you know, you'll never hear from me again.

而且，你知道，也许我已经在离西班牙两千英里远的地方去世了。

And, you know, you know, may you know, maybe maybe I've, you know, died 2,000 miles away from Spain.

也许，顺便说一下，我只是带着钱逃跑了。

Maybe I may by the way, maybe I just, like, ran away with money.

那时候又没有国际刑警组织。

It's not like they had Interpol in those days.

是的。

Yeah.

我要去干这件事。

And I'm gonna go do that.

然后，顺便说一下，那个赌注赢了，这事儿，不，不是这样的。

And then and then by the way, the the fact that that bet paid off, like, that that that's, like, it No.

不。

No.

整个想法都是错的。

The whole idea was wrong.

是的。

Yeah.

等等。

Wait.

但整个想法都是错的。

But the whole the whole idea was wrong.

我的意思是，整个想法都是错的。

I mean, the whole idea was wrong.

他发现了一个完全不同的大陆，但他自己却不相信他发现了一个完全不同的大陆。

He discovered a completely different continent, and he himself did not believe that he had discovered a completely different continent.

对吧？

Right?

而且我甚至不知道，这种痛苦在长远来看才是最大的受益者。

And I don't even know this pain was the main beneficiary of that in the long run.

对吧？

Right?

就像那样，但是，你知道的，她资助了它，哇。

Like so, like but, like, you know, like, she funded it and, wow.

对吧？

Right?

然后还有很多是的。

And then there's there's a lot of Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

对。

Yes.

他们确实发现了一些黄金。

They they did they did find some gold.

顺便说一下，有一个非常类似的故事，清教徒们有普利茅斯岩、整个那套东西、五月花号，他们也有一个非常类似的故事。

In a very similar story, by the way, the Puritans have a the, you know, the Plymouth Rock, the that whole thing, the Mayflower, they have a very similar story, to that.

我认为，筹集资金、完成五月花号远征花了二十年时间，他们需要像那样的赞助人。

It took, I think, twenty years to raise the financing, to be able to make the, make the Mayflower Expedition, and they needed they needed, you know, backers like that.

你知道，我们现在总在谈论冒险产业，四百年前的捕鲸产业。

You know, that we we always talk now about, you know, adventure industry, you know, the whaling industry four hundred years ago.

你知道，它的运作方式非常相似。

You know, it operated in a very similar way.

电影产业一直都是这样运作的。

The the movie industry has always worked this way.

图书出版业也一直都是这样运作的。

The book publishing industry has always worked this way.

顺便说一下，政治一直以来都是这样运作的，政治竞选就是这样，你知道，任何一位未来的总统最初都是不被看好的。

By the way, politics has always, you know, worked political campaigns work this way that, you know, any any any new, you know, future president starts out as a long shot.

有人会押注于他们。

Somebody bets on them.

因此，有一种难以言喻的东西，涉及到对那些结果高度不确定、失败率很高的长期投资做出押注。

And so there there's there's this intangible that has to do with making making these long dated bets with very uncertain outcomes and with high failure rates.

我的意思是，如果确实如此的话。

And, I mean, like, if yes.

我想我在原始访谈中说的是，你看。

Like, I think what I said in the original interview is, like, look.

如果我们让人工智能来做这件事，那就祝它好运吧。

If we're have AI do that, like, god bless.

我要去海滩放松了，一切都没问题。

Like, I'm gonna, like, I'm gonna hit the beach and, like, it's all good.

但你知道，我想我或许可以提出以下观点。

But, you know, like, I I guess maybe make the following claim.

你看，本，你怎么看这个：随着时间推移，那些无形的东西似乎变得越来越重要，而不是越来越不重要。

See see, Ben, what you think of this, the intangibles seem to be becoming more important, not less important over time.

随着时代发展，这似乎正越来越像一门艺术，而越来越不像一门科学。

It seems to be becoming more like an art and less like a science as we go.

你同意这一点吗？

Would you agree with that?

我 definitely 认为这是对的，因为历史并不是一个好的指南。

I definitely think that's right because history is a bad guide.

对我来说，风险投资最有趣的点，也是最重要的教训是，你必须对高度训练的神经网络保持警惕，因为正是在这种情况下你会犯错，因为情况在变化。

The interesting thing about VC for me, probably the biggest lesson is you've to be very careful about a highly trained neural net, because that's when you make mistakes, because things change.

我会说，变化的速度更快了。

And I would say things have changed more rapidly.

我们从未想过会永远消失的东西，就是‘人月神话’。

Like, the thing that we never thought would ever, ever, ever go away is the mythical man month.

九个女人不能在一个月内生出一个孩子。

Nine women can't have a baby in a month.

但有了人工智能，你就可以做到。

Well, with AI, you can.

软件。

Software.

这是对软件的一种隐喻。

It's a metaphor for software.

这是对软件的一种隐喻。

It's a metaphor for software.

是的，正是如此。

Yes, exactly.

抱歉，抱歉，抱歉。

Sorry, sorry, sorry.

在过去，无论你往团队里加多少工程师，结果往往是人越多，项目反而越慢，而不是更快。

So, in the old days, right, like, no matter how many engineers you put on a team, you still, you know, more engineers would actually slow down the project as opposed to speed it up.

现在，你不能再用钱来解决一个问题了。

Now, so you couldn't throw money at a problem.

你不能再用钱来追赶别人的科技优势。

You couldn't throw money at somebody's technological lead.

你必须采取不同的做法。

You'd have to do something different.

现在，你可以砸钱进去。

Now, you can throw money at it.

你知道，埃隆在基础模型问题上大手笔投入，很快就赶了上来。

Know, Elon did an amazing job of throwing money at the foundation model problem, and he caught up very, very fast.

这在我们整个行业历史上是以前从未发生过的事。

And that's something that in the whole history of our industry could never have happened before.

所以，如果你问人工智能，埃隆有没有可能追上OpenAI或Anthropic，它们会说：绝无可能。

So, if you had asked an AI if Elon had any prayer of catching OpenAI or Anthropic, they would have said, No way.

所以，你现在开始进入这样的情况——我的意思是，也许如果人工智能足够聪明，我猜是这样，但很多情况下，这取决于你对这个人有多信任。

And so, that's where you're getting into, I mean, maybe if the AI was smart enough, I suppose, but like there are these, a lot of it has to do with like how much do you believe in the person.

是的，另一部分是我们之前讨论过的，那就是漫长而曲折的道路，你知道，投资只是开始，对吧？

Yeah, and the other part is what we talked about already, but it's the long and twisting path, you know, investment's just the beginning, Right?

而这条漫长而曲折的道路，是这个人或这家公司随着时间推移所走过的，以及我们尝试帮助他们成功的各种方式。

And it's the long and twisting path that that person, that company take over time, and all the different ways that we, you know, we try to try to help them succeed.

所以我认为，是的。

And so I I think that yeah.

我，嗯，

I yeah.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

我不知道怎么让AI做到这一切，但也许我们最终会找到办法。

I I don't know how to have AI do all that, but maybe maybe we'll figure out.

是的。

Yeah.

你可以想象一个能完成所有这些事情的AI，当然可以。

You you could imagine an AI who could do it all, of course.

如果一个AI在每件事上都像人类一样聪明，包括理解人类心理学，那当然有可能。

If an AI was smart at a human at about every single thing, including human psychology, then certainly.

有可能。

Could be.

等等。

Wait.

你负责训练这个AI。

You're you're you're tasked with training this AI.

比如，你在这一过程中学到了哪些可以言说的东西？

Like, what are the things that you've learned on this art that you can put into words?

比如，如果真是这样——这是我能想到的最乐观的未来图景——工具正在变得更好，但人的部分真的、真的很重要。

Like, if it is, and this is the most optimistic view of the future I can think of, the tools are getting better, but the human piece really, really matters.

比如，你从这门艺术中学到了哪些可以描述出来的东西？

Like, what have you learned about the art that you can that you can describe?

比如，你在寻找一个哥伦布式的人物时，会看哪些特质？

Like, what do you look for in in a Christopher Columbus?

嗯，我的意思是，我有点犹豫去列举这些，因为它们都太不一样了，对吧？

Well, mean, I think that the first thing, and I hesitate to name things in some sense because they're all so different, right?

比如，埃隆和马克·扎克伯格完全不一样，马克·扎克伯格和阿里·戈茨也完全不同，而他们又和布莱恩·切斯基毫无相似之处。

Like, Elon is really not at all like Mark Zuckerberg, who's not at all like Ali Goetzee, who's not like at all like Brian Chesky.

所以，他们都不一样。

So, like, they're all different.

但他们都做的一件事是，他们都会独立思考。

And, but the things that they all do, I would say, is they all think for themselves.

他们不是那种看人脸色、试图揣摩别人希望他们做什么的人。

They're not people who read the room and try and like figure out what people want them to do.

他们有原创的想法。

They have original ideas.

所以，想法可能是每个伟大企业家都具备的东西——他们是独立思考者。

So, idea is probably the thing that every great entrepreneur has, their original thinkers.

此外，他们也都具备某种程度的魅力，足够有趣，让人愿意追随他们，因为最终，你确实需要人们觉得：‘这个人就是领导者，我想和他共事、为他工作’等等。

And then, know, they all also have some combination of enough charisma, they're interesting enough that people want to follow them, because, know, ultimately, you kind of need people to go, Okay, that is the leader, and that's somebody who I want to work with, work for, and so forth.

所以，我认为几乎所有人都具备这些特质，而要成为伟大的人，这些特质都是必需的，但除此之外，比如史蒂夫·乔布斯就是完全不一样的人。

So, are the things that I would say almost all of them have, and and then think all of them have those to be great, but everything else, know, like Steve Jobs is a very different kind of guy.

他们都不一样，我觉得。

They're all different, would say.

像史蒂夫·乔布斯和安迪·格鲁夫完全不一样，根本不一样，但他们都了不起。

Like Steve Jobs is nothing like Andy Grove, like nothing, you know, they're both great.

为了收尾，我想听听你们每个人，未来几年——比如2016年左右——在科技领域最让你兴奋的是什么？

To close this out, I guess from from each of you, what is the thing that you're personally most excited about in the next kind of couple of years of a '16 z but just tech more broadly?

我的意思是，你知道，马克说过一句特别棒的话，说这就像蒸汽机或者电力一样。

Well, mean, I mean, you know, you know, Mark Mark had a great line like, well, this is on the order of like the steam engine or electricity.

这是一个如此重大的发明，我们将进入一个完全不同的世界。

This is such a big invention that we're going to end up in a different world.

对我来说，最令人兴奋的是，你明白，我可不想生活在电力出现之前的世界。

The thing that's most exciting to me about it is, you know, I wouldn't want to live in the pre electricity world.

我喜欢现在这个世界，好太多了。

Like, I like this world way, way, way better.

所以我认为，我们极有可能进入一个远超我们想象、甚至无法理解的更好世界，这正是让人感到恐惧的原因。

And so, I think that like odds are we're going to get to a world that's just way, way better than we can even like, we can't even get our heads around it, which is why it freaks people out.

我们过去不得不忍受、习以为常的那些烦人事情，以后都不再需要了。

Like, all the stuff that we have to do and so forth that we've just learned to live with that sucks isn't going to be required anymore.

所以，你知道，这意味著什么？

So, like, you know, what does that mean?

我们怎么看待它们？

What do we think of them?

生活会变成什么样？

Like, what does life become?

这可能会非常令人兴奋。

It could be, you know, super exciting.

人类有一点有点问题，就是如果这让我们离某些根本的目的、信念和精神层面太远了，那你就会去依赖一些愚蠢的东西。

The one thing with humans that's a little messed up is, you know, if that takes us too far away, like one of the too far away from some grounded purpose about, you know, and beliefs and spirituality, then, you know, you can attach on to some dumb stuff.

所以，这其实是我唯一的担忧，但我认为，每个人的生活质量即将变得前所未有的好。

So, you know, that would be actually my only worry, but I think life, just the quality of life for everybody is about to get, like, way, way better than it's ever been.

我对Z世代感到兴奋。

I'm excited about the Zoomers.

我是的。

I am.

是的。

Yeah.

好吧。

Alright.

我对Z世代充满期待。

I am psyched for the Zoomers.

前几天我跟一个创业团队在一起，我向他们解释为什么Z世代比千禧一代强得多，为什么他们能拯救我们，以及一切都会变得很棒。

I was with a I was with a founder a founder team the other day, and I was who are Zoomers, I was explaining to them, you know, why the Zoomers are so much better than the millennials and why they're gonna save us and, like, the whole thing is gonna be great.

这太棒了。

This is so great.

当然，他们只是盯着我，好像我在说希腊语一样，因为他们觉得千禧一代是完全脱节的老古董。

And, of course, they're just, like, staring at me like I was speaking Greek because, like, they did you know, they're you know, they they think, like, millennials are, old farts that are, like, completely out of touch.

是的。

Yeah.

当然，你知道，你一直是碘补充剂的爱好者。

And, of course, know, as a you've been an iodine extras.

我们简直就像石器时代一样。

We might as well be, you know, stone age.

我当时就想，但我也觉得，正是这些Zoomers最棒的地方。

And and I was like and but I was like but I was like, this is what's so great about these Zoomers.

他们就是，他们就是，我想形容为2015年到2024年这段时期非常非常奇怪。

Like, they're they're just, like, they're they're it's it's the it's the post that I would describe it as 2015 to 2024 was just it was a very, very strange period.

很多事都变得特别古怪。

And a lot of just things got really weird.

而Zoomers这一代人基本上是这段时期的直接受害者。

And the Zoomers are the generation that basically was on the receiving end of that.

至少对我们接触到的Zoomers来说，他们根本不买账。

And I they're at least for the Zoomers we get to deal with, like, they're just not having it.

他们不会整天都感到内疚。

And they're not walking around feeling guilty about everything all the time.

他们也不会觉得必须否认自己想要成功。

They're not feeling like they have to, like, deny that they wanna be successful.

你知道，他们完全没有那种道德上的苦行僧式包袱。

You know, they don't have any of the moral, you know, kinda hair shirt stuff.

他们就是，如果非要说的话，他们一直被

They're they're just like they're they're if anything, they were held

被我们所有人束缚着。

by us all.

也是这样。

Like that too.

X世代放下了六七十年代的种种疯狂。

Gen X kind of let go of all the craziness of the sixties and, early seventies.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

That's right.

没错。

That's right.

X世代，你说得对。

Gen X you're right.

没错。

Exactly.

X世代是对婴儿潮一代的反叛，就像Z世代是对千禧一代的反叛一样。

Gen X was the reaction of boomers in the same way the Zoomers are reaction of millennials.

所以，我们所接触的Z世代创始人，在我看来，是最优秀、最有能力、最出色的。

And so the the the Zoomer founders that we get to deal I my view is, like, it's the best it's the best it's the best, most competent, most capable.

顺便说一下，他们真的非常优秀，接受过极其良好的训练和教育，因为他们是在网络环境中成长起来的。

By the way, they're just, like, incredibly well they come in all just they're incredibly well trained and educated because they grew up online.

你知道，他们看过成千上万小时的YouTube视频，内容都是科技界顶尖人物讲述如何做各种事情。

You know, they've seen, you know, a thousand hours of YouTube videos from all the great, you know, people in tech talking about how to do everything.

你知道，他们掌握的知识远超以往任何一代创业者。

You know, they just know so much more than previous generations of founders did.

而且，顺便说一句，他们都是天生的AI原住民。

And, you know, they're they're by the way, they're you know, they're all AI native.

你知道，他们基本上都是在大学里从零开始学习人工智能的，毕业后完全掌握了这项技术。

You know, they all, you know, basically learn AI from scratch and, know, in college, and, you know, they're coming out, and they they they totally understand it.

而且他们热情高涨，毫不掩饰自己的情感，把心都挂在脸上。

And so and they're just, like, tremendously fired up and, like, completely, you know, completely you know, they wear their, you know, they wear their heart on their sleeve.

他们决心要打造一些伟大的东西，并且对此毫不道歉。

They're, like, they're they're gonna build something they're gonna build something great, and they're completely unapologetic about it.

他们非常有魄力。

They're very forceful.

他们非常坚定。

They're very determined.

是的。

Yeah.

我只是觉得这太棒了。

I I I just think it's fantastic.

我一直都在等待，这一点埃里克和本会告诉你的。

I I've been waiting this Eric and Ben will tell you.

我一直在等待这一刻，已经等了很久。

I've been waiting for this for for a long time.

我们可能得把这段剪掉，但我真的很喜欢Z世代的一点是，我从没听过任何人说‘做好事也能做好自己’这样的话。

We may have to edit this out, but one of the things I do really like about the Zoomers, I haven't ever heard anybody say anything like, I'm gonna do well by doing good.

他们从来不会说这种废话。

They never fucking say that bullshit.

没错。

No.

这些都不用提了。

None of that stuff.

他们也有幽默感。

Sense of humor too.

他们很有趣。

They're funny.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

他们非常幽默。

They're extremely funny.

嗯，他们非常幽默。

Well, they're extremely funny.

他们懂的。

They get they get it.

他们经历过的。

They get they they live through.

他们一直承受着大量的胡说八道，但他们就是不买账。

They were on the receiving end of just a tremendous amount of bullshit, and and they're just, like, they're just not having it.

所以，我觉得能和他们一起工作真的特别令人兴奋。

And so it's just I find it just, like, tremendously exciting, to to be able to work with them.

如果我能完全掌控自己的时间，我会百分之百这么做。

And I'm I'm if if I if I had total control over my time, it would be a 100%.

那就是。

That was.

嗯，感谢你花了一小时与一位千禧一代交谈。

Well, I appreciate you spending an hour with a millennial.

这太有趣了。

This was a ton of fun.

谢谢你让我写关于一个16Z的内容，也感谢这次对话。

Thank you for letting me write about, about a 16 z, and and thanks for thanks for the conversation.

我们正在谈论你所有未来的嘉宾。

We're we're talking about all your future guests.

是的。

Yes.

没错。

Exactly.

贝基，这真是

Becky, this was an

精彩的文章。

excellent piece.

非常感谢你撰写了这篇文章。

Thank you so much for writing.

是的。

Yeah.

一位很棒的嘉宾，我很高兴你。

A good guest, and I'm glad you.

百分之百。

100%.

感谢收听本集的a16z播客。

Thanks for listening to this episode of the a 16 z podcast.

如果你喜欢本集，请务必点赞、评论、订阅，给我们打分或留下评价，并分享给你的朋友和家人。

If you like this episode, be sure to like, comment, subscribe, leave us a rating or a review, and share it with your friends and family.

如需收听更多集数，请访问YouTube、Apple Podcasts和Spotify。

For more episodes, go to YouTube, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify.

在 X 上关注我们，账号是 a sixteen z，并在 a16z.substack.com 订阅我们的 Substack。

Follow us on X at a sixteen z, and subscribe to our Substack at a16z.substack.com.

再次感谢收听，我们下一期节目再见。

Thanks again for listening, and I'll see you in the next episode.

提醒一下，此处的内容仅作信息参考，不应被视为法律、商业、税务或投资建议，也不应用于评估任何投资或证券，且并非面向任何 a sixteen z 基金的投资者或潜在投资者。

As a reminder, the content here is for informational purposes only, should not be taken as legal business, tax, or investment advice, or be used to evaluate any investment or security, and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a sixteen z fund.

请注意，a sixteen z 及其关联方可能也持有本播客中讨论的公司股份。

Please note that a sixteen z and its affiliates may also maintain investments in the companies discussed in this podcast.

如需更多详情，包括我们的投资链接，请访问 a16z.com/discoveries。

For more details, including a link to our investments, please see a 16z.com forward slash disclosures.