2025年加密趋势：稳定币、应用商店、用户体验等

到目前为止，在我们的四部分2025年大构想系列中，你们已经听到了来自全球各地团队的声音，涵盖美国活力、医疗保健、金融科技等领域。

So far in our four part 2025 big idea series, you've heard from teams all over a 16 z, from American dynamism to health care to fintech and more.

但你们还从未听过一个团队的声音——a16zcrypto。

But one team you haven't heard from yet, a16zcrypto.

这是因为我们专门做了一期节目，深入探讨他们提出的14个2025年大构想，内容涵盖AI代理的加密钱包、去中心化聊天机器人、身份证明、预测市场、加密应用商店等等。

And that's because we have an entire episode dedicated to their 14 big ideas for 2025, ranging from crypto wallets for AI agents to decentralized chatbots to proof of personhood, prediction markets, crypto app stores, and so much more.

在经历了如此辉煌的一年之后——其中比特币价格更是突破了10万美元的历史新高——我们的Web3团队认为明年必将有更多值得期待的进展，这其实并不令人意外。

After such a banner year where, among other things, Bitcoin hit all time highs above a $100,000, it really should be no surprise that our Web three team thinks there's a lot to come next year.

所以，如果你想及时了解所有关于Web3和下一代互联网的动态，请关注《Web3 with a16z》。

So if you'd like to stay up to date with all things Web three and the next generation of the Internet, check out Web three with a16z.

当然，如果你想查看全部50个大构想，包括加密领域的14个，请访问a16z.com/bigideas。

And, of course, if you'd like to see all 50 big ideas, including all 14 from crypto, head on over to a16z.com/bigideas.

欢迎收听《Web3 with a16z》。

Welcome to Web three with a6andz.

我是Sonal，今天我和Robert非常高兴为大家带来两期特别的年终节目，同时展望2025年。

I'm Sonal, and today, Robert and I are excited to bring you two special end of year episodes, which also look ahead to 2025.

因为我们正在介绍我们的年度大趋势，其中包括各个团队成员感兴趣的科技趋势，这是一个全公司范围的列表，而加密领域每次都是占比最大的，今年我们的团队提出了14个趋势，去年是9个，前年是7个。

Because we're covering our annual big ideas, which includes some tech trends individual team members are excited about, it's a firm wide list with crypto having the biggest showing every time, and this year, our team had 14 trends compared to nine last year and seven the year before.

你可以在 a16zcrypto.com/bigideas 查看完整列表。

You can check out the full list at a6andzcrypto.com/bigideas.

本集是两集系列的第一集。

This episode is part one of two.

你不需要按特定顺序收听，本集涵盖的趋势包括稳定币、应用商店的分发与发现、未来用户从何而来、开发者如何改进和选择基础设施，以及简化用户体验。

You don't have to listen to them in any particular order, covering the trends of stablecoins, app store distribution and discovery, where the next users will come from, how builders improve and choose infrastructure, and simplifying user experience.

我们邀请的嘉宾分别是萨姆·布罗纳、徐玛吉、松冈达伦、约阿希姆·诺伊和克里斯·莱昂斯。

Our guests for each of those are Sam Broner, Maggie Hsu, Daren Matsuoka, Joachim Neu, and Chris Lyons.

罗伯特和我会在最后做一些元层面的评论，敬请留意。

Robert and I follow with some meta commentary at the end, so stay tuned till then.

也别忘了收听我们另一期关于加密与人工智能交叉领域的大趋势节目。

And be sure to also check out our other big ideas episode, which covers all the ideas at the intersection of crypto and AI.

提醒一下，以下所有内容均不构成投资、商业、法律或税务建议。

As a reminder, none of the following is investment, business, legal, or tax advice.

请访问 a6ninja.com/disclosures 查看更多信息，包括我们投资组合的完整列表。

Please see a six ninja dot com slash disclosures for more important information, including a link to a list of our investments.

好了，让我们从第一个想法开始。

With that, let's begin with the first idea.

萨姆，你的核心观点是关于稳定币的。

Sam, your big idea was about stablecoins.

你一直撰写大量关于稳定币的内容，而罗伯特与达伦共同撰写了《加密现状报告》，他们得出的主要结论是：稳定币已经实现了产品市场契合。

You've been writing a lot about stablecoins, And Robert co produced the state of crypto report with Daren, and the big takeaway they had is that stablecoins have found product market fit.

但我们真正想听你讲的是：为什么是现在？

But what we really wanna hear from you is why now?

在过去一年里，平台有了显著改进，稳定币的转账成本从5美元下降到了不足千分之一美分。

So over the last year, there's been substantial platform improvement where stablecoins went from costing $5 to less than a tenth of a cent to send from person to person.

这为任何支付场景的成本结构带来了巨大的提升。

And that unlocks a huge, huge improvement in the cost structure of paying for anything.

但零售商、商户和其他本可从这种成本优化中获益最大的企业，至今仍未采用稳定币。

But they still haven't been adopted by the retailers, merchants, and other businesses that would most stand to benefit from that improved cost structure.

我认为人们以为第一批采用者会是科技导向的企业，但这些企业利润率高，并不需要这种成本结构的改善。

I think people think that the first adopters are gonna be tech centric businesses, But those are high margin businesses that don't need that improved cost structure.

因此，最敏感于利润率的企业，比如街角小店、餐馆、夫妻店，可能最渴望开始接受稳定币。

So the most margin sensitive businesses, like the corner stores, the restaurants, the mom and pop shops, are probably gonna be the people who are most eager to start accepting stablecoins.

我们说的是像咖啡店这样的企业，目前利润率只有2%，而稳定币能帮助它翻倍。

We're talking about taking businesses like a a coffee shop, which is running right now on a 2% margin and doubling it.

真正把今天几乎不盈利的企业转变为 moderately profitable（中等盈利）的企业。

Really turning businesses that are hardly profitable today to being moderately profitable.

巨大的差异。

A huge difference.

当你谈到小企业从信用卡公司那里得不到什么时，这正是让我恍然大悟的时刻。

This was what kinda gave me the moment is when you talked about what the small businesses don't get from credit card companies.

所以，他们不仅要支付这些费用，还根本享受不到任何好处。

So they're not only paying these fees, but they're not even getting the benefits.

是的。

Yeah.

信用卡最了不起的地方在于，它们为消费者提供了欺诈保护。

What's so remarkable about credit cards is that they offered consumers fraud protection.

这对于推动在线销售等初期业务非常有帮助。

And that was great for bootstrapping things like online sales.

但当收银员一边递给你咖啡，一边收钱时，欺诈保护几乎毫无作用。

But fraud protection does basically nothing when the cashier is handing you a coffee as you give them the money.

我们说的是每笔交易30美分，外加额外的2%费用。

We're talking about 30¢ per transaction and an additional 2% on top of that.

这使得一杯1.5美元的咖啡变得如此昂贵。

That brings a dollar 50 coffee.

其中将近30美分，也就是五分之一，都流向了支付服务商。

Almost 30¢ of that, you know, a fifth of that is going to the payment provider.

他们在整个交易过程中什么都没做。

They didn't do anything in that transaction.

他们实际上并没有提供多少价值。

They don't really offer very much value.

因此，你放弃的这2%的利润完全变成了支付提供商的纯利润，而对你的本地咖啡店来说则是纯粹的损失。

So the 2% margin that you're giving up is pure profit for the payment providers and purely a negative for your local your local coffee shop.

我迫不及待想看到他们把这30.35美分的利润赚回来，并扩大他们的业务。

I can't wait for them to get that $30.35 cents margin back and build their businesses out.

你很少有机会能直接将2%的利润加到你的净利润中。

It's very, very rare that you have the opportunity to add 2% directly to your bottom line.

不过，这里确实存在一个冷启动问题。

There's a bit of a cold start problem here, though.

对吧？

Right?

因为这些顾客必须拥有稳定币，才能用它们来支付给商家，从而绕过交易手续费。

Because these customers have to have stablecoins in order to be able to use them to pay these businesses and circumvent the interchange fees.

你认为我们会看到商家主动推广稳定币，并帮助用户注册使用稳定币，以获取这些好处吗？

Do you think we're gonna start seeing businesses almost help promote stablecoins and onboard people onto stablecoins in order to reap these benefits?

我们会不会看到一种转变，即商家实际上会协助稳定币的市场推广策略？

Are are we gonna start seeing this kind of turn where businesses actually help the go to market strategy for stablecoins?

这是我的坚定信念。

That's my strong belief.

但人们与这些实体零售商、咖啡店和街角小店有着深厚的关系。

But people have relationships with these in person retailers, coffee shops, and corner stores.

他们经常光顾这些地方。

They go there often.

因此，我认为这些强大的本地品牌将开始推动人们采用稳定币，作为初期采用曲线的一部分。

So I think we're gonna see these strong local brands begin to bring people onto stablecoins as part of that initial adoption curve.

我最喜欢这一点的是，当我最初在《财富》杂志报道加密货币时，我的编辑们总是问：什么时候能用比特币买咖啡？

What I love about this is when I first started covering crypto over at Fortune, my editors would always be like, when can you buy a coffee with Bitcoin?

我当时说：不行。

And I was like, no.

不行。

No.

不行。

No.

不是这样的。

No.

不是那样的。

It's not like that.

它的目的不是这个。

That's not what it's for.

但现在看来，这确实至少是它的用途之一。

But now it's like, actually, that is sort of what at least this is for.

这正是它的用途，我认为早期采用者会这么做。

It's exactly what it's for, and I think there'd be some of the early adopters to do it.

所以。

So

谢谢你，萨姆。

Thank you, Sam.

再见了，各位。

See you guys.

谢谢。

Thank you.

所以，好吧。

So okay.

这挺有意思的。

So that was interesting.

我们继续下一个吧。

Let's go on to the next one.

所以，Maggie，你的主要想法非常有趣，因为它更关注分发，这在你的角色是面向市场的前提下完全合理，你是这里面向市场团队的负责人。

So, Maggie, your big idea was a very interesting one because it's actually focusing more on distribution, which makes perfect sense given your role is in go to market and you're, like, you're the head of the go to market team here.

你提到加密货币终于有了自己的应用商店和发现机制。

You talk about how crypto is finally getting its own app stores and discovery.

你能给我们简单介绍一下，为什么这很重要吗？

Do you wanna just, like, give us an overview of why that even matters?

因为当你听到这个标题时，你会觉得这听起来太内行了。

Because when you hear that headline, you're like, oh, that feels so inside baseball.

为什么加密货币还需要自己的东西呢？

Like, why does crypto even need its own thing?

它不已经是圈内人的行业了吗？

Isn't it already an insider industry?

很想听听你谈谈背景、你观察到的现象，以及为什么你觉得这是个重要的大想法。

Would love you to talk about the context, what you're observing, and why you think this is an important big idea.

当然。

Absolutely.

当我大约三年前加入 a16z 以来，尤其是过去几年，我们投资组合中的许多公司都试图在传统应用商店——比如苹果的 App Store 和谷歌的 Play 商店——上发布应用，但都因各种原因被阻止、拒绝或延迟。

When I started at a16z about three years ago and really for the past couple years, there have been so many companies within our portfolio that have tried to launch apps on the traditional app stores, so Apple's App Store, Google Play Store, and they've gotten blocked or denied or delayed for various reasons.

我觉得特别令人沮丧的是，如果你去读苹果的指南，会发现它们非常混乱。

And I think what's really frustrating is that if you read Apple's guidelines, they're confusing.

第一，它们并不完整，无法涵盖应用开发者可能遇到的所有问题。

One, they are not complete, so they don't necessarily address all the questions an app developer might have.

但更糟糕的是，政策的执行也因审核人员不同而前后不一。

But then the policy is applied inconsistently depending on who the reviewer is.

因此，我们有多家公司遇到这种情况：取决于他们分配到的审核员是谁，同一个应用可能被拒绝，而其他应用却能通过，这种差异极其巨大，整个过程就像一个黑箱。

And so we've had multiple companies where depending on who they get as reviewer or another app is approved for the same thing that they were denied for, it's incredibly inconsistent, and it's a black box.

而这一切很大程度上都源于必须通过应用商店进行所有应用内购买的IAP机制。

And much of it comes down to this concept of IAP having to run any sort of in app purchase through the app store.

过去几个月来，令人欣喜的是，我们开始看到一些替代方案出现。

What's been great is that over the past several months, we are starting to see alternatives.

一个很好的例子是Solana的DApp商店。

One great example is Solana's DApp Store.

它们实际上是免手续费的。

They're actually fee free.

当Saga手机第二代发布时，我记得他们已经有了大约十万份预订单，这个数字只会继续增长。

And when the Saga phone part two, the second generation comes out, I think they had something like a 100,000 preorders, and so that will only increase.

另一个例子是World应用。

Another one is the World app.

Worldcoin或World已经推出了多个微型应用，这些微型应用都获得了巨大的用户反响。

So Worldcoin or World, they've launched several mini apps, and all of these mini apps have incredible traction.

不仅仅是这些，还有我们支持不同游戏的区块链。

And not just these, but also our blockchains that are supporting different games.

它们正在运行自己的市场。

They're running their marketplaces.

我们有基础设施市场。

We have infra marketplaces.

你开始看到越来越多的……

You're starting to see so

这些应用正在迅速达到规模，我认为它们将成为传统应用商店真正可行的替代方案。

many of these, and they're really starting to hit scale, and I think will become a really viable alternative for those traditional app stores.

这太棒了。

That's fantastic.

当我听到这些时，我想到一个问题——这可能是一个适用于整个加密领域的非常元层次的问题：如果选项太多怎么办？

One question that comes to mind when I hear this is and this might be the very meta question that applies to all of crypto, actually, which is what if you have too many options?

我们当前手机上由苹果和安卓两大操作系统主导的世界有一个好处，那就是我只需要去一个地方就能找到所需的东西。

One of the nice things about the world we live in with two dominant operating systems on our current mobile phones between Apple and Android is it's nice that I only have to go to one place to get something.

所以，这些应用是被列在多个应用商店里吗？

So, like, are these apps being listed across multiple app stores?

它们是专属的吗？

Are they specific?

比如，Worldcoin 和 Solana 都有自己的应用商店。

Like, both Worldcoin and Solana have their own app stores.

你提到你的大想法时，还指出一个有趣的地方：这些公司不仅有软件，还有硬件。

And you pointed out in your big idea that it's also interesting because those are both companies that also have hardware, not just software.

比如，Worldcoin 有 Orb 设备。

Like, in the case of World, they have the Orb.

而 Solana 则有 Saga 手机。

In the case of Solana, they have the Saga phone.

这显然和苹果推出 iPhone 后催生应用生态系统的做法非常相似。

And that is obviously very similar to how Apple launched the iPhone and then spawned the app ecosystem.

所以，这些应用会不会都只根据这些公司认为重要的东西来筛选？

So are these all gonna become just, like, filtered only through the lens of what those companies think is important?

它还会保持开放吗？

Is it gonna remain open?

你觉得这件事会怎么发展？

Where do you kinda see this playing out?

我的意思是，现在还为时过早，但这些系统之间该如何互通？或者它们根本没必要互通？

I mean, it's still early days, but, like, how do they all talk to each other, or should they even?

我认为现阶段的目标是推动各个应用商店的增长，你提到一个很好的观点，那就是可能会出现应用商店过多的问题。

I think at this time, the goal is to get the growth of the different app stores, and you make a great point that there might be an over proliferation.

我们也可以用同样的说法来看待区块链本身的泛滥。

We could say the same thing about the prevalence of blockchains themselves.

我认为这些系统未来需要某种形式的桥接功能或整合。

I do think there will need to be some sort of bridging function or consolidation from these.

但至少目前，看到这些可行的替代方案真的令人兴奋。

But for now, at least to see these viable alternatives is really exciting.

WorldChain 的例子很有趣，因为它们涉及的是可验证的真人。

And the WorldChain example is interesting because these are verifiable humans.

所以我刚看了一眼他们的一个小程序，已经有大约六十万注册用户。

So I just peeked into one of their mini apps, and it has something like 600,000 registered users.

所以我认为我们应该关注这一点。

And so I think we should focus on that.

在某个时候，你需要通过筛选来平衡这一切。

And at some point, you need then the curation to balance that out.

这种情况在我们的一些NFT社区中已经持续一段时间了。

This has been happening for a while with some of our NFT communities.

它们拥有大量非常热衷于探索其他Web3应用的用户。

They have lots and lots of eyeballs that are really excited to dig into other web three applications.

因此，我认为我们会看到其中一些开始充当其生态系统内应用的筛选型市场。

And so I think we'll start to see some of them also acting as these curation marketplaces for things that are built in their ecosystem.

是的。

Yeah.

我只是想问一下，像苹果这样的公司可能会辩称，由于他们提供的筛选服务，他们有权从应用商店内的购买或活动收取一定费用。

I was just gonna ask, you know, one thing that a company like Apple would argue is that because of the curation that they provide, they are owed some fee on both the purchases or the the activity that goes on in their app store.

这与你在加密领域所看到的无许可性如何相符？

How does that square with the permissionlessness that you see in the crypto arena?

我认为目前并没有太多深思熟虑的筛选机制，所以我可能不同意这一点。

I would say at this point, there isn't a lot of thoughtful curation, so I would disagree with the first part of that potentially.

关于第二点，加密货币的美妙之处在于，你可以轻松转移到另一个平台。

The second part of that, the great thing about crypto is that you can then move to another platform.

类似地，游戏的启动需要大量资金。

Similar thing, games need quite a bit of capital to launch.

在过去几年里，区块链不仅作为构建平台，还充当了发行商、分发和发现机制。

And for the past several years, blockchains have acted not just as a platform to build upon, but a publisher as well as a distribution and discovery mechanism.

我看到许多这些游戏链现在都拥有自己的市场，并能推荐在这些区块链上构建的关键游戏。

And what I've been seeing is many of these game chains now have their own marketplaces, and they're able to feature key games that are built on those blockchains.

这是一个关键优势，因为它们能够将用户从一个游戏引导到另一个游戏，这也是我们许多投资的核心理念。

And that is a key benefit because they are able to take users and move them from game to game, and that is the thesis of a lot of our investments.

我认为它们不会被锁定在任何一个去中心化应用商店中。

I don't think that they'll be stuck in any one of these decentralized app stores, for example.

我喜欢看这些所有的实验。

I love watching all these experiments.

比如Solana手机，它完全打破了所有规则。

Like, the Solana phone, it, like, breaks every rule.

你知道的？

You know?

别跟苹果在iPhone上硬碰硬，然后他们干脆说：管他的。

Don't don't compete with Apple on, like, the iPhone, and then they're just like, screw it.

我们就这么做。

We're gonna do that.

是的。

Yeah.

我们在播客里对背后的动力和他们为此做出的创新押注做了很棒的解读，我觉得这非常出色。

Totally did a wonderful job on our podcast explaining some of the impetus behind it and and the innovation bet that they were making with it, which I think was fantastic.

所以我想特别提一下这一期，以防有些听众还没听过。

So I just wanna call out that episode in case listeners haven't heard it.

是的。

Yeah.

这真是个不错的例子。

That's a great one.

还有另一个观点，玛吉，你提到实际上并不全是轻松愉快的事。

And then one other point, Maggie, you brought up, like, it's actually not all fun and games.

比如，确实存在一些挑战，举个例子，如果一个产品已经在即时通讯应用上建立了现有的分发渠道，那么要把这种分发迁移到区块链上就非常困难，这对一些从Web2转向Web3的公司来说尤其具有挑战性。

Like, there are some challenges as well, which is, for example, you know, if a product has existing distribution, like, on messaging apps, it's hard to port that distribution on chain, and that's one of the things that's gonna be difficult for some of these companies that are maybe web two coming to web three.

你提到的一个例子就是Telegram和TON网络。

One example you cited was Telegram and the TON network.

我想说得非常清楚。

I wanna be very clear.

我们讨论的不是代币，而是网络本身。

We're not talking about the token, just the network.

我认为Telegram算得上是一个例外。

I think Telegram has been one of the exceptions.

根据我与许多拥有庞大现有用户群体的组织直接交流所了解到的情况，它们可能在Web2上拥有一个平台。

What I've heard from speaking firsthand to many, many organizations that have large incumbent distributions, so they might have a platform in Web two.

它们可能确实有Web3的尝试，但仍然发现很难把这些用户迁移到链上。

They might actually have something like Web three is that it's they still find it hard to bring those users on chain.

你可以查看公开数据，比如Coinbase拥有大约一亿曾经进行过交易的验证用户。

One example that you can look at the public data, Coinbase has something like a 100,000,000 verified users that have ever, transacted with Coinbase.

如果你看活跃用户数量，即日活跃或月活跃用户，大约有八百万到一千万用户在进行交易。

If you look at both the active users, so the daily actives monthly, that's something like eight or 10,000,000 transacting.

而在Base链上的这些用户数量，我认为最近刚刚有所上升。

And the number of those users on base, I think those numbers have just went up recently.

它们从大约一千万增长到一千八百万，但这仍然只占其总用户基数的约10%。

They went up from something like 10,000,000 to 18,000,000, but that's still about 10% of their total base.

因此，存在大量休眠用户。

So there's this large number of dormant users.

我们实际上在《加密货币现状报告》中讨论过这个问题，我认为这非常有趣，因为这完全属实。

And we actually talk about this in our state of crypto report, which I think is fascinating because it's absolutely true.

你可以去问任何一家大型企业，比如一个聊天应用。

You talk to any large could be a messaging app.

它可能是一个中心化交易所，任何类似这样的机构，都在努力寻找答案。

It could be a a centralized exchange, anything like this, and they're all trying to figure out.

我们知道，他们 somehow 已经被吸引进来了。

Know, we got them in somehow.

他们创建了账户，但之后再也没有任何操作。

They created an account, but they haven't done anything more.

我们该如何让他们持续回来并在链上交易呢？

And how can we keep them coming back and and transacting on chain?

是的。

Yep.

我同意。

I agree.

Maggie，非常感谢你的参与。

Maggie, thank you so much for joining.

谢谢。

Thank you.

想到有这么多人拥有加密货币，真的非常有趣。

It's really fascinating to think that there are so many people out there who who have crypto.

他们持有它。

They hold it.

他们已经与之互动过，但还没有采取任何行动。

They've interacted with it, but they're just not doing anything yet.

他们就像在潜伏等待。

They're sort of like lying in wait.

他们处于休眠状态，只是在等待被激活。

They're dormant just like waiting to get activated.

他们家里已经有了宽带连接。

They've got, like, the broadband going to their house.

他们的口袋里也装着手机。

They've got the phones in their pockets.

他们只是在想，我该怎么用这个新科技呢？

They're just like, what do I do with this new tech I have?

所以，关键只是打开开关，让人们真正开始积极地使用它进行交易。

And so it's just a matter of switching that on and people becoming, like, really actively transacting with it.

我们来听听接下来是什么。

Let's hear what's next.

当我们制作加密货币现状报告时，我们竭尽全力去评估加密货币行业的规模。

When we were doing the state of crypto report, we really wanted to do our best to size up the crypto industry.

外面有很多噪音。

There's a lot of noise out there.

你知道，在加密世界中，衡量用户数量非常困难，原因有很多。

You know, measuring users is very tricky in the crypto world for a number of reasons.

但当我们进行这项市场规模估算时，我们发现只有5%到10%的加密货币持有者在积极使用加密货币。

But when we did this market sizing exercise, we actually found that only five to 10% of people who own crypto are actively using crypto.

对我来说，这凸显了一个巨大的差距，但也意味着在当前区块链技术与基础设施不断进步的阶段，这个行业有着巨大的机遇。

And to me, that stood out as a big gap, but also a really big opportunity for the industry given where we're at on the technology timeline with blockchains and the infrastructure getting better.

用户体验一直在改善，我认为我们终于准备好迎接主流了。

The UX continues to get better, and I think we're finally ready for prime time.

考虑到我们在这个曲线上的位置，我认为明年是把人们带入链上的绝佳时机，把那些被动的加密货币持有者转化为活跃的加密用户。

And given where we're at on that curve, I think, you know, this next year is the perfect time to bring people on chain, convert those passive crypto holders into active crypto users.

对我来说，这是一个非常令人耳目一新的想法，因为很多人谈论主流化这些新用户时，感觉这不是不可逾越的障碍，但似乎跳过了技术成熟度和发展阶段中的某个环节。

For me, that was a very eye opening idea because so many people talk about mainstreaming these new users, and it feels not like insurmountable, but it feels like it's skipping a phase stage wise in the technology readiness and development.

你的想法就像一座绝佳的桥梁，提供了一种方式，将现有用户转化为活跃用户。

And your idea was, like, a wonderful bridge to, like, here's a way to bring in existing people, convert them into users.

你们有什么理论能解释是什么促使他们行动的吗？

Do you guys have any theories about what brought them?

我的意思是，我们当然不知道确切的答案，因为我们没有那部分数据。

I mean, we don't know the exact answer, obviously, because we don't have that data.

但你觉得他们最初做了什么，然后为什么在做其他事情之前停滞了呢？

But, like, what do you think they did in the first place and then why they stalled out before they did something else?

这正是讨论价格创新周期的绝佳时机。

Well, this is, like, the perfect time to talk about the price innovation cycle.

当然。

Sure.

我们有一个概念，就是当加密货币价格上涨时，人们会感兴趣。

We have this concept, which is this idea that when crypto prices go up, people get interested.

而那些感兴趣的人最终会决定去开发一些东西。

And then people that get interested, you know, ultimately decide to build something.

开发者们就会加入。

The developers come in.

他们开发出产品，然后这些产品会启动下一轮浪潮。

They build the products, you know, and those products then kick start the next wave.

在加密货币的历史上，我们已经多次看到这种情况发生，这说明价格通常是我们要看到的活动类型的领先指标。

And we've seen this happen now many times over the the history of crypto, and it speaks to the fact that prices are often a leading indicator for the types of activity that we we wanna see.

我认为我们可能正处于下一轮浪潮的开端。

And I think we're at the beginning of potentially, the next wave.

抱歉。

So sorry.

不过为了更具体一点，我完全同意这是一个很好的框架。

Just to be more concrete about it, though, because I totally agree that's a great framework for it.

比如，如果我要推测的话，很多注册钱包的人可能是为了购买NFT，因为他们看到了ConstitutionDAO这样的项目。

Like, if I were to speculate, a lot of these people that came on like, that got wallets might have done it to buy an NFT because they saw, like, ConstitutionDAU.

还记得当时所有人都在试图竞购美国宪法的时候吗？

Remember when all those people were trying to buy the US constitution?

我认为这件事最令人兴奋的地方在于，尽管他们没能成功竞得宪法，但却吸引了大量新人进入加密领域。

I think one of the most exciting things about that is that even though they failed their bid to win the constitution, they it brought a lot of new people into crypto.

但那可能是他们唯一做过的事，之后就再也没有进一步的行动了。

But that's probably the only thing they did, and then they didn't do anything more with it.

我的意思是，当然我们并不确切知道，但这是我可能会做出的推测。

I mean, again, we don't know exactly, but, like, that's what I would sort of speculate.

而现在，他们只是持有这些钱包，却并没有成为活跃用户。

And then now they're just holding these wallets, but they're not active users.

我想问的是，你认为需要什么才能让他们迈入下一步？

I guess the question I have, what do you think would take to get them, like, to that next thing?

那这个差距到底是什么？

Like, what is that gap?

是的。

Yeah.

加密技术本身有多种不同的应用场景，但它背后也支撑着各种不同的运动。

Crypto as a technology has a number of different use cases, but it but it's also kind of has these different movements underpinning the technology.

是的。

Yeah.

例如在2024年，我们看到了加密作为政治运动的大量进展。

In 2024, for example, we saw a lot of progress, with crypto as a political movement.

我们看到关键的政治人物和政策制定者对这项技术表达了积极的态度。

We saw key politicians and policymakers speaking very positively about the technology.

我们还看到它作为金融运动取得了惊人的发展。

We also saw it make incredible developments as a financial movement.

对吧？

Right?

因此，比特币和以太坊的ETP获得了批准，扩大了投资者的参与渠道。

So Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs were approved, which broadened investor access.

所以，你知道，这些正是最终让更多人进入这个领域、让他们意识到自己也可以参与其中的关键因素。

And so, you know, these are the types of things that ultimately bring a lot of people into the space, make them aware that this is something that they can participate in.

但我们认为，加密货币最大的潜力在于它作为一种计算运动的发展。

But where we believe crypto has the most promise is as a computing movement.

克里斯·迪克森在他的书《阅读、写作、拥有》中深入探讨了这一点。

And Chris Dixon talks a lot about this in his book, Read, Write, Own.

这项技术的真正力量在于，它能创造一个更公平、更开放、更透明的互联网版本。

The real power of this technology is to create a a better version of the Internet that is more fair, and open and and transparent.

我认为，正如我所说，我们现在正处于一个转折点，2025年可能会见证更多加密货币作为计算运动的发展，因为现在已经有了大量投身其中的人。

And I think we are, like I said, at the inflection point here where we may, in 2025, see more developments of crypto as a computing movement because, you know, we have the people that are in there.

对吧？

Right?

再加上我们看到的基础设施进步——费用下降、用户体验提升、新的应用类别开始涌现——我们有可能迎来一个像ChatGPT在AI领域那样颠覆性的杀手级应用，真的。

And with the infrastructure developments we've seen, with fees coming down, with the UX improvements, with new application categories starting to emerge, we potentially could see a killer app like ChatGPT kinda showed us on the AI side that really Yeah.

这将推动整个行业的发展，真正实现加密作为计算运动和新互联网的承诺。

Kickstarts the entire industry and kinda delivers on the promise of crypto as a computing movement, a new Internet.

我认为，我以及这里的许多团队成员都非常期待见证这一点。

And that's what I think I and a lot of the team here is is really excited to watch.

是的。

Yeah.

这是我们一直讨论的话题，但事实是稳定币已经找到了产品市场契合点。

This is something that we've talked a lot about, but the fact that stablecoins are they've found product market fit.

真正需要的，只是有一家大公司意识到，不再向客户收取信用卡交易手续费，可能会为他们带来巨大的利润，对这些利润率微薄的企业来说是颠覆性的。

And all it really is gonna take is one big company to realize that they you know, not paying merchant fees on credit card transactions with your customers could be tremendously profitable for them, like transformative for their bottom line for these thin margin businesses.

在这一切爆发之前，只需要一家大公司率先这么做。

It's gonna take one big company to do that before this thing takes off.

至少，这是看到这一领域真正大放异彩的一种路径。

At least that's one pathway where you could see this thing really kind of hit the big time.

对。

Yeah.

我想补充一点，我再次觉得你的想法非常有趣，那就是吸引周边用户的理念。

I'll add just that what I again find very interesting about your idea is that notion of bringing adjacent users.

当我们准备好了，我们就引入更多的主流用户，但无论如何，我们在用户体验方面还没有准备好。

And then then when we're ready, we bring in more of the mainstream users, and we were not ready for that on the UX side anyway.

因为当你真正思考主流用户时，我不确定他们会通过这些路径加入。

Because when you really think about the mainstream users, I don't know if they're gonna come through these paths.

他们的使用界面将会被高度抽象化，远离他们的感知。

Like, they're gonna be those interfaces are gonna be very abstracted away from them.

他们甚至可能不知道自己在使用加密货币。

They might not even know they're using crypto.

所以当你思考所有这些将通过不同路径涌入的不同浪潮时，这确实非常有趣。

And so actually really interesting when you think about all these different waves that are gonna come in through all these different paths.

这非常令人兴奋。

It's very exciting.

太棒了，达伦。

Awesome, Daren.

非常感谢。

Thank you so much.

太棒了。

Awesome.

谢谢。

Thank you.

好的。

Okay.

那么我们继续下一个。

So now on to the next one.

所以，Joachim，快速总结一下，你的想法是建设者会复用而不是重新发明基础设施。

So, Joachim, to quickly summarize, your idea was builders will reuse and not just reinvent infrastructure.

而你主要讨论的是，我们似乎总是看到定制的验证者集合、共识协议等等。

And your main point you talk about is how it seems like we always see a bespoke validator set, consensus protocol, da da da.

你在帖子中提到，这些专门化方案在某些功能上可能只略微更好，但往往在更广泛或基础功能上有所欠缺。

And what you say in the post is the outcomes were sometimes only slightly better in specialized functionality, but they often lacked in broader or baseline functionality.

今年，你预计加密领域的构建者会更多地利用彼此的成果，比如使用现成的基础设施，这将节省他们的时间和精力，同时让他们能够更专注于差异化产品的价值创造，我认为这是一个非常棒的宏大构想。

That this year, you expect to see crypto builders leverage more of the contributions of each other, like using off the shelf infrastructure, and that it'll save them time and effort, but really allow them to really focus on differentiating the value of their product, which I think is a fantastic big idea.

这甚至是一个迫切需要的行动号召。

Much needed call to action even.

所以我对你的一个快速问题是，这听起来在理论上很棒。

So the quick question I have for you is sounds like it's great in theory.

但它真的会发生吗？

Will it actually happen?

你认为可能阻碍这一目标实现的障碍是什么？

And like, what do you what do you see as maybe obstacles of making this happen?

我认为这个想法的关键在于，技术栈在未来是否会持续变化。

I think the crucial ingredient for this idea is whether or not the tech stack keeps changing going forward.

是的。

Yep.

如果假设成立，即技术栈已经稳定或正在趋于稳定，我们看到技术栈的某些层在接口定义和与其他层的互操作性方面日益明确，那么你就会预期，这些层会有专门的团队、产品和服务在持续开发和优化。

If the hypothesis is correct that the tech stack has stabilized or is stabilizing, and we see certain layers of the tech stack getting well defined in terms of their interface and how they interoperate with other layers of the tech stack, then you would expect that those layers, there's specialized teams, specialized products, specialized services, working and improving these layers.

这促使了这些层的专业化。

And that leads to the professionalization of those layers.

于是，与其分散在各个层面上同时工作，不如专注于那些你能产生最大影响的栈的组成部分，这会更加明智。

And, you know, then instead of being spread across the stack, like working on each of these layers simultaneously, it becomes prudent to basically focus on, you know, the pieces of the stack that you can make the most impact on.

是的。

Mhmm.

因此，关键问题是：技术栈是否已经充分成型并趋于稳定？

And so the critical question here is, has the tech stack materialized enough and stabilized enough?

如果未来出现意想不到的转折，彻底颠覆我们的技术栈，那么这种情况可能就不会发生。

If there's like a surprising turn, you know, around the corner that turns us tech stack upside down, then this may not happen.

约阿希姆，你提到人们会倾向于使用那些已经存在的产品、服务或组件，这让我想知道，你如何判断一项技术已经足够成熟，可以下定决心使用它？

Joachim, so your point about people sort of gravitating toward certain products or services or components that are existing out there, it makes me wonder, when do you know that the tech is actually good enough to say, okay.

我们决定采用这项技术。

We are gonna use this tech.

我们不再试图去构建一个比现有现成方案更好、全新的东西。

We're not gonna try to build something new and better than what already exists off the shelf.

这是个很好的问题。

That's a great question.

你本质上是在问，作为构建者，你怎么知道呢？

You're basically asking how do you know as a builder?

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

因为说说用现成的东西听起来不错。

Because it's nice to say just use something that's already out there.

但如果你觉得，我能做出比那个更好的东西呢？

But what if you're like, but I think I can make something better than that.

你知道的。

You know?

对。

Yeah.

我想给那个人的建议是，始终要关注更大的生态系统、更深远的影响以及更广泛的应用场景。

I think advice that I would give that person is to to always be aware of the larger ecosystem and the larger ramifications and the larger use case or application.

产品或服务所处的使用背景，可能比你最初想象的要更广泛。

There's a wider context that the product or service is going to be used in than you may perhaps initially think.

是的。

Yes.

所以我们可以用汽车做一个类比。

So one can make an analogy with like a car.

对吧？

Right?

也许你非常擅长制造发动机。

So maybe you're very, very good at like building engines.

你的想法是我要造一辆新车。

And your idea is I'm gonna build a new car.

你知道，我非常擅长制造发动机。

You know, I'm really good at building engines.

这确实是关键的区分因素。

And that's really the one key distinguishing factor.

但你的客户不仅希望拥有一台出色的发动机。

But your customer will not only want to have like a fantastic engine.

对吧？

Right?

汽车还必须配备合理的音响系统，或者要有舒适的座椅。

The car also has to have like a reasonable stereo, or it has to have like, you know, reasonable seats.

它可能还需要有空调。

It has to maybe have air conditioning.

对吧？

Right?

你打算重新发明所有这些部件吗？

Are you gonna like reinvent all those parts as well?

还是说，你可以专注于自己最擅长的那一点，同时利用其他厂商提供的优质配套产品？

Or is there a way for you to focus on the one thing that you're very, very good at while leveraging best of class products that are provided by others that provide other parts to the stack?

太棒了。

That's fantastic.

这是

It's

一个很好的比喻。

a great analogy.

这实际上是一个完美的比喻。

That's a perfect analogy, actually.

但这个比喻从你身上说出来也很贴切，约阿希姆，因为你来自德国。

But it's also it's also very apt coming from you, Joachim, because you're German.

在德国，有很多非常专业的汽车零部件制造商，它们专门制造宝马汽车中最好的微小部件，其他人根本无法超越。

And in Germany, they have all these very, very specialized auto parts makers that, like, completely make, like, the best possible tiny component in the BMW car that, like, nobody else can top.

所以这更是额外的。

So it's it's also extra.

我只是在笑，因为没想到你会这么说，但你说得对。

I'm just laughing because I can't believe you went there, but that's a great point.

当你拥有最好的汽车零部件时，说起来当然容易。

It's easy to say when you have the best car components around.

完全正确。

Totally.

没错。

Right.

完全正确。

Totally.

约阿希姆，你刚才在开玩笑，但我的一个个人观察是，我认为加密领域的人有一种我称之为‘约束色情’的现象——在加密的早期阶段，很多人之所以热衷于此，正是因为这些限制。

Joachim, you know, was joking with you about this big idea that one of my personal observations is that I think people in crypto have this thing, which I call constraints porn, that there's a lot of people in this early phase of crypto that are just really into it because of the constraints.

我认为你的大想法会让这群人非常反感，因为他们实际上非常享受这个问题的这一部分。

And I think your big idea is gonna be very annoying for that crowd because they actually really like that part of the problem.

从某种意义上说，你的大想法实际上吸引了更多新建设者进入这个领域，这在我看来是非常民主化的。

And in a way, your big idea actually welcomes more new builders to the space, which is quite democratizing in my opinion.

我的意思是，现在在这个领域里建设真是一个了不起的时代。

I mean, it's really an amazing time to build in this space.

对吧？

Right?

因为人们在构建产品或服务时，可以利用这么多现成的代码库。

Because so many code bases that people can tap into when they build their products or their services.

而且，你真的不需要亲自做太多事情。

And, you know, there's really so little you have to genuinely do yourself.

对吧？

Right?

你可以专注于自己擅长的领域。

Like, you can really focus on what you're good at.

至于其他方面，已经有很多高度专业化的组件可供使用。

And for everything else, there's highly specialized parts already out there.

所以，尽可能复用它们，借助其他团队在堆栈其他部分的专业知识，这可能是很好的做法。

So probably a good idea to reuse them whenever you can, and tap into the expertise of other teams of people who build on other parts of the stack.

谢谢。

Thank you.

太棒了。

Wonderful.

谢谢你，约阿希姆。

Thank you, Joachim.

现在我们来看最后一个。

And now we have the last one.

克里斯，过去十年你在a16z担任过许多不同的角色。

So, Chris, you've had a lot of different roles at a6z over the last decade.

但在你的工作中，你接触了大量的人，与许多时尚、音乐和媒体行业的高管合作，并帮助他们进入Web3领域。

But in your job, you come across a lot and you work with and you've onboarded a lot of fashion, music, media executives into web three.

因此，你的视角不仅仅是代表你自己，而是代表了你所接触的成千上万的人。

And so I think your vantage point is not just speaking for yourself, but, like, thousands of the people that you've met with.

那么，你能告诉我们，你对2025年的主要观点是什么吗？

So can you tell us, like, your big point for 2025?

当然。

Of course.

当然。

Of course.

所以我对2025年的核心想法，其实也是我从2024年、2023年、2022年就一直在提的想法，但现在我认为我们终于到了一个可以真正实现它的阶段。

So my big idea for 2025, which has been my big idea for 2024 and 2023 and 2022, but I think now we finally are at a state where, you know, we can really make this happen.

我称之为‘隐藏线路’。

I call it hiding the wires.

这意味着，每个人都知道加密货币的好处，以及它如何成为众多行业的未来——无论是音乐、时尚、电影，还是所有权和去中心化的力量。

And so what that means is that obviously everybody knows the benefits of crypto and how it's gonna be the future of so many different industries, whether it's music, whether it's fashion, film, the power of ownership, the power of decentralization.

但加密行业的人在使用像零知识滚动（ZK roll-ups）、L2、Gas或Gas费这样的技术术语时，往往忽略了外界对这些概念的陌生。

But there's a a little bit of a lack of knowledge from people that are in the crypto industry when we're using, you know, technical terms like ZK roll ups or L2s or gas or gas fees.

我想对加密行业发出一个公开提醒：我们不需要一上来就说‘这是一个NFT项目’，或者‘这是一个代币’，或者‘请连接你的钱包’——这些说法对加密圈内的人当然很有效。

And I just have a PSA to the crypto industry that we don't need to start with the phrase of, hey, this is an NFT project, or hey, this is a token, or hey, you know, if you connect your wallet into the like, are great things for people in the crypto industry.

但如果你想让某样东西真正走向主流，就不能以这些技术术语作为开场白，因为很遗憾，大多数人既不了解，也不关心。

But if you're gonna really take something and have it go mainstream, we can't lead with the technical terms because, unfortunately, most people do not know nor do they care.

我所说的‘隐藏线路’，意思是不要一开始就强调技术基础设施、技术术语或技术产品——虽然这些确实是应用背后真正的优势，但它们不应该是主要的卖点。

And what I mean by hiding the wires is not necessarily leading with the technical infrastructure, with the technical terms, the technical products that obviously are the benefits behind the application, but don't necessarily need to be the overarching sell.