埃米尔·迈克尔：伊朗、Anthropic 与人工智能在五角大楼的未来

我们正面临历史上最大规模的军事建设。

We're faced with the biggest military buildup in history.

我们正朝着通用人工智能迈进，这是一种基础平台、一层技术，将触及方方面面。

We're trending toward artificial general intelligence, a substrate, a layer, something that'll touch everything.

但在国防部，我们在人工智能方面远远落后。

But we're way behind in AI at the department.

你是战争部的首席技术官。

You are a CTO for the Department of War.

你如何评估这些优先事项的现状？

How do you take stock of where those priorities are?

我上任时，我们有14个关键优先领域。

When I took the role, we had 14 critical priority areas.

我们将它们缩减为六个，这些是我认为最有可能实现变革、增长和产生影响的领域。

We got them down to six, and they were the places where I thought we had the greatest opportunity for change and for growth and impact.

关于商业人工智能模型被用于五角大楼，已经有过非常公开的讨论。

There has been an incredibly public discussion about commercial AI models being used in the Pentagon.

这次讨论中有什么变化？

What has changed in this latest discussion?

我经历了一个顿悟时刻，因为有些事情远远超出了过去几周媒体所报道的内容。

I had a holy cow moment because there were things well beyond what you've been hearing in the press in the last couple of weeks.

当埃米尔·迈克尔被确认为负责研究与工程的副国防部长时，他进行了全面盘点。

When Emil Michael was confirmed as undersecretary of defense for research and engineering, he took inventory.

他发现国防部有14项关键科技优先事项，其中大多数近十年来几乎没有变化，而且用词极其模糊，根本无法执行。

What he found was a department with 14 critical technology priorities, most unchanged for nearly a decade, written in a language so vague, no one could act on them.

他将清单缩减为六项。

He cut the list to six.

人工智能应用被列为首位。

Applied AI went to the top.

在90天内，国防部300万名人员中有120万人使用了某种形式的人工智能。

Within ninety days, 1,200,000 of the department's 3,000,000 personnel had used some form of AI.

他上任时，这个数字只有8万。

When he started, that number was 80,000.

更紧迫的问题是他发现，现有AI模型被嵌入到美军最敏感的指挥系统中，而这些模型的条款允许在操作中途关闭软件。

The more urgent problem was what he found inside existing AI models baked into the most sensitive commands in the US military under terms that could shut the software off mid operation.

他认为，一家公司的内部价值观文件，不能成为美国指挥与控制系统的权威依据。

A company's internal values document, he argues, cannot be the governing authority for American command and control.

控制权。

Control.

本次与国防研究与工程部副部长、国防创新单元代理主任埃米尔·迈克尔的对话，录制于华盛顿特区的a16z美国活力峰会。

This conversation with Emil Michael, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering and acting director of the Defense Innovation Unit, was recorded at the a16z American Dynamism Summit in Washington, DC.

好的。

All right.

感谢您参与我们的节目。

Thank you for being with us.

我知道您每周都很忙，但感觉过去这一周可能是您公开活动最频繁的一周。

I know every week is very busy for you, but it feels like this past week has probably been the most publicly busy for you.

谢谢您加入我们。

So thanks for joining us.

我的荣幸。

My pleasure.

很高兴来到这里。

Good to be here.

我们会谈论Anthropic、人工智能和国防，但我想先聊聊你，你是如何走到这个位置的。

Look, we're going to talk about Anthropic, AI, and Defense, but I think we want to talk first a little bit about you, how you got into this seat.

这并不是你第一次在政府任职。

This is not your first tour of duty in government.

你之前就长期选择成为一名公职人员。

You have decided to be a public servant before and for a long time.

对于这个房间里一半来自科技界的人来说，他们熟知你是一位极其出色的硅谷高管，备受追捧，非常成功。

For half this room that comes from the technology side, they know you as an incredibly accomplished Silicon Valley executive, highly sought after, very successful.

那是什么让你投身公共服务的呢？

Let's start with what pulled you into public service?

这一切是如何开始的？

How did it start?

为什么要做这件事？

Why do it?

为什么现在要承担这个角色？

And why take on this role now?

你知道吗，在我创办的第一家公司Tell Me Networks之后，我们开发的语音识别软件在2007年被微软收购了。

You know, after my first company, Tell Me Networks, so we had this speech recognition software we sold to Microsoft in 2007.

我当时想从科技行业休息一下，于是申请了白宫研究员项目，这个项目非常棒。

I kind of needed a break from tech, so I applied to this White House fellowship program, which was super cool.

科林·鲍威尔曾经参加过这个项目。

Colin Powell had done it.

参联会主席也参加过。

Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff.

凯恩将军也参加过。

General Cain had done it.

这只是一个很酷的项目。

It was just a cool program.

这是一个为期一年的非党派项目。

It was a year nonpartisan program.

我被选中了，这太棒了。

And I got selected, which was awesome.

我被分配给了时任国防部长罗伯特·盖茨。

I got assigned to Robert Gates, who was the Secretary of Defense at the time.

所以我有机会前往阿富汗、伊拉克和巴基斯坦。

So I got spend time in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan.

我对这个领域产生了热情，而这一切对我来说都是全新的。

I got a passion for that world and it was so new to me.

我当时想，总有一天，等我准备好了，我会回来。

And I said, someday I'll come back when I'm ready to really go.

然后特朗普当选总统，我想，哇，这是一个顶层出现颠覆者的关键时刻。

And then President Trump got elected and I was like, wow, this is a moment where you have a disruptor at the top.

他任命了海克斯先生为国防部长，这意味着我之前看到的所有问题，现在有了更清晰的解决途径。

He chose Secretary Hexas, and that meant all the problems I'd seen, there'd be a clearer way to solve them.

你可以看到我们推进的速度——行政命令、关键矿物、新技术、新进入者，相比过去，这种节奏简直令人难以置信，所以我对能身处其中感到兴奋。

And you could see by the pace we're moving at, the executive orders, critical minerals, new tech, new entrants, The pace is incredible relative to what it was before, so I'm excited to be there.

太棒了。

Awesome.

那你能不能跟我们详细讲讲这个？

Well, why don't you talk to us a little bit about that?

你曾直言不讳地指出，国防部不能以和平时期的节奏运作。

You have been outspoken that the Department of War cannot operate at peacetime speed.

这就像我们对创业者说的：你可以当战时CEO，也可以当和平时期CEO。

This is kind of like how we tell founders, you can be a wartime CEO or a peacetime CEO.

什么是和平时期的节奏？

What does peacetime speed mean?

它的问题出在哪里？

What is the problem with it?

那么，胜利是什么样子的？

And what does winning look like?

迅速行动具体是什么样子？

What does moving with urgency look like?

冷战结束后，国防部就开始了和平时期的节奏。

Peacetime speed started after the Cold War was over at the Department of War.

我想有个著名的事件叫‘最后的晚餐’，五角大楼的领导人对产业界说：今后不会再有太多武器系统或创新的采购了，所以你们应该合并、放缓增长，转而成为支付股息和进行股票回购的公司。

And I guess there was some famous event called the Last Supper where the leaders of the Pentagon said to industry, Hey, there's not going to be a lot more buying of weapons systems or innovation, so you all should consolidate and slow down your growth basically and become dividend payers and stock buybackers.

这种情况持续了很长时间，之后产业整合到了四到五家主要承包商。

And that lasted for a long time and then the industry consolidated down to four or five primes.

接着，中国从2000年代中期，大约2010年开始，展开了历史上最大规模的军事建设，而我们却没有跟上。

So then we're faced with the biggest military buildup in history in China, starting in the mid-2000s, like 2010, and we didn't catch up.

于是，我们突然发现，自己在许多关键领域都外包了国内生产，无论是关键矿物、电池，还是整个供应链。

So all of a sudden, we've outsourced a lot of our key domestic production on many different areas, whether it's critical minerals, batteries, a lot of the supply chain stuff.

然后你一抬头，惊觉：天哪，我们得追赶的东西太多了。

Then you look up and you're like, Holy cow, we've got a lot of catching up to do.

所以，战时节奏就是要确保我们重新在国内生产对国家实力至关重要的东西，而我们正在积极推进这一点。

So, wartime speed is ensuring that we're re domesticating the critical things we need for national strength, and we are moving out on that.

我们拥有卓越的能力，必须在众多领域保持领先，我们必须确保在关键领域实现自给自足，因此我们正在全力以赴推进这项工作。

We have exquisite capabilities, we've got to lead in so many areas, We have to make sure that we're self reliant in key areas, and so we're running as hard as we can on that.

你知道吗，这让我感到非常惊讶。

You know, it was amazing to me.

我们与一家叫Skydio的公司合作，而这家公司被中国制裁了。

We work with a company called Skydio, and they were sanctioned by China.

我们通常听到的故事是，公司被美国制裁，无法在这里做生意。

And we usually hear stories about how companies are sanctioned by The United States from doing business here.

但事实上，如果你是一家重要的公司，被中国制裁，无法再购买电机、电池或其他主要来自中国的关键部件，那简直糟透了。

But actually, if you're a company that's an important company and you get sanctioned by China and you can no longer buy motors or batteries or other really key things that primarily come from China, it stinks.

如果这些产品进入了国防采购流程，而我们再也无法获得它们，那就是个大问题。

And if those products make it into the defense procurement cycle and we can't get them anymore, it's a huge problem.

因此，我们在实践中认识到，这不仅仅是国防工业基础的问题，还包括所有那些上游环节。

So we've learned in our practice that it's not just the defense industrial base, but also all those precursors.

所以，当你接任国防部首席技术官这个职位时，能跟我们聊聊吗？

So talk to us a little bit about, as you stepped into the role, you are CTO for the Department of War.

你如何确定优先级？

How do you prioritize?

你如何评估这些优先事项的现状？

How do you take stock of where those priorities are?

你如何判断？

How do you figure out?

我的意思是，如果你看新闻，感觉我们有无数事情需要追赶。

I mean, if you read the news, it feels like there's an endless list of things that we need to catch up on.

我今年五月上任时，虽然宣誓就职，但像任何新领导一样做了全面盘点，当时我们有14个关键优先事项。

When I took the role in May, I was sworn in, but did the inventory like any new leader would do, and we had 14 critical priority areas in this role.

我的前任有10个，后来有人又增加了4个，所以一共是14个，而且近十年来这些优先事项都没变过。

And my predecessors had 10 and then someone added four, so there were 14 and they hadn't changed in nearly a decade.

所以我得审视它们，问自己：为什么这些是关键的？

So I get to look at them and say, well, okay, well, why are these critical?

顺便说一句，当你想激励团队时，谁能记得住14件事？

And by the way, who can remember 14 things when you're trying to motivate a workforce?

什么是集成的网络系统之系统？

And what is an integrated network systems of systems?

这些词有点技术行话的味道。

They were sort of technobabble.

所以我决定深入研究一下，弄清楚什么才是真正重要的。

So I said, well, let's study and say what's really important.

我们最终将它们精简为六个，这些是我认为最有可能带来变革、促进增长并提升我们作战能力和工业基础的领域。

And we got them down to six, and they were the places where I thought we had the greatest opportunity for change and for growth and impact on our combat power and for our industrial base.

这就是我们的起点。

And that was the starting point.

而应用人工智能位列第一。

And applied AI was number one.

于是，我们将首席数字与人工智能办公室并入我的团队，因为我们在这方面的进展严重滞后，所以能够迅速推进。

So then we moved the Chief Digital and AI Office into my group and we were able to run extremely fast with that because we're way behind in AI at the department.

我们知道人工智能正在全球范围内以惊人的速度渗透，我们的对手也在用它实现各种目的，因为他们对指挥控制系统的信任度较低，因此希望通过计算机来减少人为决策。

And we know it's penetrating the rest of the world so dramatically, so quickly, and our adversaries were also using it for lots of different purposes because they have less trust in their command and control, so they want to use computers to sort of eliminate human decision making.

我们希望增强人类的决策能力。

We want to enhance human decision making.

因此，这一直是我们优先关注的事项，我认为在九十天内，国防部300万人中已有120万人使用了某种形式的AI。

So that's been a priority and we've kind of, in ninety days, I think we've had 1,200,000 of the 3,000,000 people at the department use some form of AI.

在我接手之前，这个数字只有8万。

That number was 80,000 before I started.

不可思议。

Incredible.

我们再来深入谈谈为什么拥有先进的AI能力如此重要。

Let's talk a little bit more about why it's important to have advanced AI capabilities.

也许有些人会说，我们以前没有这些AI能力，也一直是世界强国。

Maybe some people would say, Well, we've been really good at being a world power without all this AI capability.

为什么这很重要？

Why is it important?

我们难道不能只专注于制造导弹之类的东西吗？

Can't we just focus on making missiles and stuff?

如果人工智能能帮助你解决物理问题、材料科学问题、空气动力学问题或发现机会，它就能协助制造导弹。

AI can help make missiles if it could help you solve physics problems, material science problems, aerodynamics problems, or opportunities.

但我们把人工智能工作分为三个领域，就像任何大型组织为了提高效率所做的那样。

But we split up the AI efforts into three areas, like enterprise, corporate use cases, like any big organisation would do for efficiency purposes.

这很正常，谢天谢地。

That's just normal thank goodness.

当你能更快地完成枯燥的任务时，每个人都会更开心。

Everyone's happier when you could do mundane tasks faster.

然后是情报用途，我们收集了海量的情报数据。

And then intelligence purposes, which is we collect an enormous amount of intelligence.

我们部门拥有大量数据仓库，这些数据却孤立闲置，未被利用。

We have huge repositories of data at the department that's sitting there siloed unused.

想象一下，数十年的卫星图像，你可以用它们来训练模型、获取洞察，再用于异常检测，从而发现正在发生的变化。

Imagine decades of satellite imagery that you could use to train a model and get insights and then use that to do anomaly detection so you could find out what's happening.

这样，你就能将一名人类分析师的工作效率提升一千倍。

So you take a human analyst and you increase their throughput by a thousand.

然后是作战用途。

And then for war fighting.

作战，他们认为这是后勤的重要组成部分。

War fighting, they talk about is a big part of it as logistics.

你如何规划后勤、寻找物资、进行兵棋推演、规划行动和模拟演练等等？

How do you plan logistics and find assets and do board gaming and plan operations and do simulations and so on?

因此，我们有许多非常重要的应用场景可以从中受益。

So there's a lot of really important use cases that we could benefit from.

是的，我们经常收到初创公司向我们推销他们的想法。

Yeah, think we are the beneficiaries of startups that pitch us their ideas all the time.

因为美国充满活力，我们听到一些公司说：‘我们可以通过AI在后勤方面节省五角大楼15%的燃油预算。’

Because it's American Dynamism, we hear about companies that say, Look, we're going to save 15% of the Pentagon's fuel budget through logistics by using AI.

我们要弄清楚如何在对抗环境中最高效地调动部队、装备和车辆。

We're going to figure out how do you move the troops and the equipment and the vehicles in the most efficient way in a contested environment.

这些都是了不起、令人惊叹的应用场景。

These are all amazing, incredible use cases.

所以你看，在过去一周里，关于商业AI模型被用于五角大楼的讨论非常公开，包括Anthropic公司也被纳入该部门使用。

So look, in the last week, there has been an incredibly public discussion about commercial AI models being used in the Pentagon, including Anthropic, being used inside the department.

在旧的软件时代——我要说的是比SaaS更早的旧软件时代，人们只是购买软件，然后客户想怎么用就怎么用。

In the old software days, and I'm going to really be in the old software days before even SaaS, people would just buy software and then the customer would use it however they want.

在这次最新的讨论中，有什么变化？

What has changed in this latest discussion?

出现了哪些新情况？

What has come up?

主要问题是什么？

What are the issues?

我假设在座的大多数人一直在关注此事，因此我们可以合理地认为大家已有基本了解。

I assume most people in this room have been following along, so we should I think it's safe to assume there's a baseline understanding.

但哪些问题成为了关键？为什么它们现在才浮现出来？

But what have become the key issues and why did they come up now?

因为当我开始研究上届政府时期签订的AI使用合同时，我简直惊呆了。

Well, they came up now because as I started to look at the contracts that had been written during the last administration for the use of AI, I had a holy cow moment.

因为合同中有一些规定，并不超出过去几周媒体所报道的内容，比如你不能用AI来调度卫星，不能用AI来规划行动，如果该行动可能引发动能打击或其他类似情况的话。

Because there were things, not well beyond what you've been hearing in the press in the last couple of weeks, Things like you couldn't move a satellite, you couldn't plan an operation, couldn't plan it, not use AI to execute it, if it would potentially lead to a kinetic strike or something.

有数十项限制，但这些AI模型却被嵌入到美军最敏感和最重要的作战系统中，而这些系统正是我们行使作战能力的核心。

Dozens of restrictions, and yet these AI sort of models were baked into some of the most sensitive and important places in the US military where we do exercise combat power.

中央司令部——负责伊朗地区，印太司令部——负责中国地区，以及南方司令部——负责委内瑞拉和南美洲——都在使用这个模型。

Central command now that's sort of the area of responsibilities, Iran, INDOPACOM, which is the area of responsibilities, China, or SOUTHCOM, which is Venezuela and South America, were all using this model.

而且只有单一供应商。

And there was no two vendors.

这是一种供应商锁定的局面，条款规定，如果模型设计为在违反条款时自动关闭，就可能在行动中途突然停止，危及生命。

It was a vendor lock situation with terms that, in theory, if the model was designed to turn off when you violated the terms, could just stop in the middle of an operation and put lives at risk.

那就是我意识到问题的那一刻。

So that was the one moment.

我当时就想，我们必须在国防部部署这些系统的同时，尽快解决并清理这些问题。

I was like, okay, we have to fix this and clean this up while we're deploying this in the department.

因此，这引发了所有这些担忧。

So that raised all these issues.

其次，在马杜罗突袭行动之后，这家主要供应商的一名高级管理人员提出了一个问题：他们的软件是否在马杜罗突袭行动中被使用过，而这次行动是我们这一代人中最成功的军事行动之一。

And then second, after the Maduro raid, one of the primary vendor for this had raised the question, the senior exec, about whether their software was used during the Maduro raid, which is one of the most successful military operations of our lifetime.

太惊人了。

Incredible.

一场非凡的行动。

An incredible operation.

没错。

That sort of Yeah.

对美国的敌人来说，过去几个月真是糟糕透顶。

It's been a bad few months for the enemies of America.

确实如此。

It has been.

我有幸见到了执行这次任务的那些人。

And I got to meet the guys who did that.

负责驾驶直升机并成功抓获梅洛瓦尼的那位指挥官，是一位真正杰出的美国人。

The lead helicopter guy who got the Melovani was a truly outstanding American.

我的意思是，他中弹后依然保持冷静，没有告诉任何人自己开了枪，以免惊动对方，让第一支登陆团队能够顺利行动，否则整个行动可能就毁了。

I mean, he was shot and kept his cool, didn't tell anyone he shot so that the first landing team could land it didn't freak it out and it could have blown the whole operation.

这种勇气真是令人难以置信。

So the courage was incredible.

当一家公司对你说：‘嘿，我们的软件被用在那次行动里了吗？因为我们不确定，也不希望如此。’

When a company says to you, Hey, was our software used there because we're not sure we'd like that?

你顿时感到脊背发凉。

Chill goes up your spine.

这就像是你在咖啡店，突然有个陌生人说：‘嘿，我昨天在学校看到你孩子踢毽球了。’你心里会想：‘你是谁？’

It's like you're at a coffee shop and some stranger's like, Hey, saw your kid at school yesterday playing kickball and you're like, Who are you?

什么？

What?

这引发了一系列连锁反应：天哪，我们是不是把所有希望都押在了一个供应商身上？而他们竟然担心我们如何使用他们的软件，尤其是在这次最成功的军事行动之后，而且他们的服务条款根本不符合未来的世界？

So that set off a series of events of, Woah, are we single threaded on a vendor who's concerned about how we're using the software after the most successful military raid and the terms of service do not comport with the future world?

我们必须引入其他合作伙伴，必须尽快行动。

We've got to get other partners in here and we've got to move.

如果你把人工智能看作是我们正朝着通用人工智能（AGI）发展的趋势，一种基础架构、一层技术，它将触及一切，就像互联网触及一切，或电信网络触及一切那样，那么当你告诉这种技术的使用者——你们不能用它来做合法的事情，那些经由民主体系、国会立法、行政分支执行的事务，包括军队——而军队是美国政府中最敏感的部分，因为我们的职责就是作为力量部门保护美国人——这时，你就面临一个真正的抉择时刻，就像我们曾经经历的那样：如果这种技术我们不能合法地使用，那么这个基础架构的选择权必须掌握在我们手中。

And if you think about AI as like what we're trending toward AGI, artificial general intelligence, a substrate, a layer, something that'll touch everything, like the internet touched everything or the telecommunications network touched everything, Then to tell the users of that substrate of technology, you can't use it for legal things, things that have come through the democratic system, laws passed by Congress, executed by executive branch, in the military, which is the most sensitive part of the US government because our job is to be the strength department to protect Americans, you do have a moment of truth there, like we've had, which is this technology, if we're losing using it lawfully, the substrate has to be our choice.

软件、某个模型的灵魂、他们的章程——这不是美国宪法——不能主导我们的指挥控制环境，不能告诉将军和作战人员该做什么、不该做什么。

The software, someone's soul of their model, their constitution, which is not The US constitution, can't be dictating our command and control environment and telling generals and warfighters what to do and not do.

没错。

That's right.

首先，你刚刚分享了很多背景信息，这些内容通过阅读新闻、跟踪报道是很难轻易获取的，尽管可能在座的很多人其实都能猜到。

First of all, think you just shared a bunch of backstory and information that has not been readily found, I think, by reading the news and following along, although probably a lot of people in this room could have guessed.

但很高兴听到，推动这件事和引发这场讨论的初衷，原本是为了确保我们拥有能够契合我们民主规范的方式来使用这种能力。

But it's nice to hear that part of the impetus for this and the catalyst for this discussion was originally about making sure that you have ways to use this capability that fit in with our democratic norms.

你提到我们有宪法，他们也有宪法。

And you mentioned that we have a constitution and they have a constitution.

一家公司居然有自己的‘宪法’，这简直有点疯狂。

It's kind of crazy that a company even has a constitution.

我认为，拥有自己企业章程的公司并不多。

There's not that many companies, I think, that have their own corporate Corporate

价值观，是的，宪法，企业文化，公司价值观

values, yes constitution, Corporate culture, corporate values,

当然。

for sure.

我知道有多少公司会明确宣称‘这就是我们的宪法’，尤其是在公司高管经常更替的情况下。

I know how many have a term that they say this is our constitution, especially when there's often a revolving door of executives at companies.

你知道的，谁也不知道他们明天会怎么想。

Like, you know, who knows what they'll think tomorrow.

所以谈谈民主监督和民选领导在我们国家部署人工智能能力用于国家安全和国防这一过程中的作用吧。

So talk a little bit about the role of democratic oversight, elected leadership that sort of guides the process that we have in this country for deploying AI capabilities for national security, for defense.

是的，谈到美国的公民自由，历史上一直有非常激烈的辩论，尤其是在9·11事件之后，以及《外国情报监视法》、1947年《国家安全法》等各项法案中，政府一直在努力平衡公民自由与国家安全，而好消息是，对此一直存在充分的讨论。

Yes, so when it comes to American civil liberties, there's a very robust debate historically, especially after nineeleven and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, the National Security Act 1947, all these acts where the government has tried to balance civil liberties and the good news has been a robust debate on it.

也许这些法律和规定尚未更新，或许它们确实应该更新。

And maybe those laws and rules haven't been updated yet, maybe they should be.

但如果我们不信任这个过程，认为法律落后于技术，于是自行决定影响国防部300万人和全国五千万人的事务，那就太危险了。

But if we don't trust that process, and we're like, well, the laws are behind the tech, so I'm going to make a decision that impacts 3,000,000 people in the department and then three fifty million people in the country.

如果你相信这个体系，你就不能这么做。

You don't get to do that if you believe in the system.

如果你不相信这个体系，尽管它并不完美，那你相信什么呢？

If you don't believe in the system, as imperfect as it is, then what do you believe in?

对吧？

Right?

那你就是在把自己当成上帝，而这并不是我想要的。

Then you're not you're taking upon yourself to kind of be God and that's not something that I want.

尽管我是个主张小政府、自由市场的人，但政府仍然必须对暴力拥有垄断权，以保护国家。

Even though I'm a small government free market person, you still have to have the government has to have a monopoly on violence to protect its country.

美国不仅是一种理念，也是一个国家。

America is just as an idea, but it's also a nation.

只有当我们拥有最优秀的工具并合法地使用它们时，国家才能保护人民；而国会负责制定这些法律，我们则负责制定这些法律的实施细则。

And it can only protect it to protect the people if we have the best tools and use them lawfully and Congress is responsible for dictating that law and we're responsible for writing regulations on that law.

我们多年来一直有四十页的内部指令规范自主武器系统，我们正在关注乌克兰和俄罗斯正在发生的情况。

We've got 40 page internal directives that have been there for years about autonomous weaponry, we're looking at Ukraine and Russia and seeing what's happening there.

然后我们看到中国窃取了美国的模型，移除了所有安全限制，并可能用这些模型来对付我们。

Then we're looking at the Chinese stealing American models, taking the guardrails off and potentially using those against us.

所以我要不要把自己的手臂绑在背后，面对同一个被对手窃取的模型？

So am I going to have my arm tied behind my back against the same model that has been stolen by the adversary?

你会陷入一种奥威尔式的情境，很难让任何人理清头绪，更难站在问题的另一面思考。

You get into Orwellian situations where it's hard to have anyone make sense of it and be on the other side of that question.

是的，完全正确。

Yeah, absolutely.

我认为关于我们的对手的这一点说得很好。

I think the point about our adversaries is well made.

他们根本没有进行这样的辩论。

They are not having this debate.

他们正在全速前进。

They are full steam ahead.

关于我们现在在人工智能领域的状况，以及当前人工智能辩论的进展，你还有什么想分享的吗？

How do we was there anything more you want to share about where we are today in the AI where are we today in the AI debate discussion?

这事儿算结束了吗，还是前路漫漫？

And like, is this put to bed, or are we is there a long road ahead?

我认为还有很多工作要做。

I think there's still work to do.

有趣的是，你有四家可以称为前沿公司的企业，还有一千名研究人员，他们彼此之间频繁交流。如果你问这些公司的领导者，他们会说这些研究人员极其宝贵，这种动态非常奇特。

And it's interesting, you have four companies that you could call frontier companies, and then you have this sort of Major League Baseball of researchers, like a thousand, who they're trading amongst themselves, who, if you ask the leaders of these companies, are so incredibly valuable that it's very strange dynamic.

四家公司，上千名研究人员，每个人都觉得他们至关重要。

Four companies, a thousand sort of researchers who everyone feels are vital.

我们该如何应对这种动态，确保有足够多的公司与我们合作，让我再也不至于陷入单点依赖的困境——这是上届政府留给我们的糟糕礼物。

And how do we work with that dynamic where we have enough companies engaged with us so that I'm never single threaded again, which is a terrible gift that the last administration handed us.

所以我们现在有多个渠道，这些机构关心国家安全，富有爱国精神，就像2018年谷歌不愿竞标Maven合同那样。

So we have multiple avenues, who are interested in national security, who are patriotic, very much like the 2018 Maven Google didn't want to bid on the contract.

如今，谷歌已成为一个出色的合作伙伴。

Now Google is a great partner.

因此，我希望一些新兴公司能从谷歌的经历中吸取教训：他们当初因为员工抗议而不愿为政府服务，但现在却成了政府最优秀的合作伙伴之一。

And so I'd hope some of the newer companies would learn from what Google did, which is they didn't want to serve the government because they had employee mob issues, but now they're one of the government's best partners.

在我们看来，2018年的谷歌Project Maven事件是一个关键的觉醒时刻，它让许多创始人和建设者意识到：等等，这不对。

We see the Google Project Maven moment in 2018 in many ways as a galvanizing moment to actually wake up a lot of founders and builders and say, hey, wait a minute.

我确实希望政府能拥有最先进技术和最佳能力，我也希望参与建设这些技术。

I actually do want the government to have the best technology and best capabilities I do want to build.

我的意思是，如果你往前看，这催生了美国活力运动。

I mean, you know, I would say if you fast forward, that gave rise to the American Dynamism Movement.

我们为许多持不同观点的创始人提供了一个落脚点，他们说：我不认同谷歌的抗议者。

We provided a landing zone for a lot of those founders that said, wait, I don't agree with the protesters at Google.

我希望前线人员以及保卫我们国家的男女官兵能拥有最先进技术和最佳能力。

I want first responders and, the men and women who defend our country to have the best technologies and capabilities.

每当有人问我这些问题时，我总会提醒他们：看看Project Maven，它被用来确保我们在阿富汗不会落下任何人。

And whenever someone asks me these questions, always remind them, look, Project Maven was used to make sure that we didn't leave anyone behind in Afghanistan.

这正是当时在公共领域使用的真正技术。

Like that's literally the technology that was used in this public.

你愿意抛弃任何人吗？

Did you want to leave someone behind?

那替代方案是什么？

What's the alternative?

所以我认为这也将成为另一个群体创始人的激励时刻，我当然希望如此，他们渴望支持自己的国家和为政府服务的人们。

And so I think that this will also be a galvanizing moment, I certainly hope it will be, for a whole another set of founders that are excited to support their country and the people that serve the government.

让我们谈谈国防部内部在结构上需要改变什么，以确保你拥有最佳的能力和科技，并能将其部署到前线。

Let's talk about the Department of War structurally inside, things that need to change, you know, in order to make sure that you have the best capabilities, best technology, and you get them out in the field.

你知道，我们在新闻上看到了一些画面，我不会直接问你关于这个的问题，因为你可能无法回答，但新闻上出现了看起来像是新技术、新能力的照片。

You know, we saw on the news, I won't ask you about it directly because you probably can't even answer, but, you know, we saw photos on the news of what looks like new technology, new capabilities.

但国防部内部在文化和结构上究竟发生了什么变化？

But what is changing culturally and structurally inside the Department of War?

显然，首先要引入像你这样懂技术的人。

Obviously, starts with bringing in people that understand technology, like you.

但究竟有哪些变化真正推动了国防部的现代化？

But what is changing to actually enable the Department of War to modernize?

希格塞斯部长说，我们正在一场不可阻挡的对抗官僚主义的战斗中。

Secretary Higgseth says we're on an unstoppable battle against the bureaucracy.

问题不在于人，而在于几十年来积累起来的官僚体系，它们阻止了拥有新技术的公司将其理念或产品部署到部门中。

That's not the people, it's the bureaucracy that's built up over decades that prevents new companies with new technologies from getting their concept or their product deployed in the department.

因此，我正在利用我所拥有的各种工具，试图建立正常的采购流程和正常的需求规范。

So what I'm trying to do with the various tools I have is trying to create normal contracting processes, normal requirements.

例如，过去我们会在招标文件中列出上千项要求。

So, for example, we used to do things like, here's the thousand requirements in our RFP.

供应商会大致填一下，然后说：是的，是的，是的，是的，是的。

A vendor would sort of fill it out and say, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.

即使这些要求在物理上根本不可能实现。

Even if it was physically impossible, the physics didn't work.

对。

Right.

然后我们给他们签了成本加成合同，结果他们说：哦，这行不通，于是不断变更需求，再延长三年开发，又花上几十亿美元。

Then we put them on a cost plus contract and they're like, Oh, that didn't work out and change order, change order lease for another three years of development, another couple billion dollars.

所以我们正努力转向更简单的需求。

So we're trying to move it to simple requirements.

我需要一枚导弹，能在这种环境下飞行这么远，并携带这种有效载荷等等。

I need a missile that goes this far in this environment with this payload, etc.

你们，业界，来告诉我你们打算如何实现它。

You, industry, come at me with your ideas on how to do it.

然后我们会以固定价格支付。

Then you've We'll five pay for it.

我们会以固定总价购买。

And we'll buy it a firm fixed price.

如果你能通过节约成本获得更高的利润，这就是埃隆模式，也是他在SpaceX如此成功的原因。

Then if you make a better margin because you're able to economize, this is sort of the Elon model and why he was so successful at SpaceX.

这样每个人都会受益。

Well, then everyone wins.

风险投资界对这种模式非常认可。

And the venture community is very comfortable with that model.

你投资赢家，不是每个人都会赢，但成本加成和无休止的开发周期行不通。

You bet on winners, not everyone's going to win, but cost plus, endless development cycles doesn't work.

所以我们需要更快的开发周期、与产业界分担风险、明确的需求信号，以及更简便的业务方式。

So we need faster development cycles, risk sharing with industry, clear demand signals, simpler ways to do business.

这些正是我每天都在清理的官僚障碍，只为让这一切成为现实。

Those are the kind of bureaucracies that every day I'm moving the debris out to try to make it happen.

很好，你就像监管领域的摩西。

That's good, you're like regulatory Moses.

对我来说，这是最重要的变化之一，它真正激发了创业者们的建设热情。

So that, to me, is one of the most important things that's changed, and it actually gets the founders fired up to build.

企业能做些什么来更好地与政府合作？你已经开展了‘自由军火库’巡访。

What is it that the companies can do better to work with the government, to work with You've done this Arsenal of Freedom tour.

你已经访问了不少初创公司，但现在政府说‘我们准备好了’，你们还需要什么？

You've visited a bunch of startups, but what is it that you need now that the government is saying, We're ready to do business.

我们会让做生意变得更简单。

We're going to make it easier to do business.

我们想要最顶尖的能力。

We want the best capabilities.

你从公司和初创企业那里需要什么？

What do you need from the companies and the startups?

我们需要公司发挥出主承包商的优势，这种优势不在于创新能力，而在于规模化生产和制造能力，能把他们最初构建的东西扩大生产。

So we need companies to the one thing the primes have an advantage on is not the inventiveness, it's the production and manufacturing ability to scale what they do with what they've initially built.

我认为初创企业的机会在于，利用这些出色的技术和理念，锻炼自己如何建立工厂、规模化生产这些产品，并进行质量检测等所有相关工作。

And I think the opportunity for startups is to take the great technologies and concepts, build up their muscle on how do you build a factory and produce these things at scale and do the quality testing and all that thing, all that kind of stuff.

因此，要有效做到这一点，你确实需要借鉴传统方式，而不是完全重新发明一切。

And so you do have to borrow from the old world to do that effectively, you're not just reinventing the whole thing.

我认为这就是下一个阶段。

And I think that's the next stage.

在未来一到两年内，你会看到一些公司开始跨越这个鸿沟：它们可能曾经失败过，但后来聘请了合适的人才，并找到了解决方法。

And you're going to see companies start to cross that chasm here in the next one to two years, where they've demonstrated or they've foot faulted, but then they've hired the right people and they figured it out.

而这有望鼓励更多公司相信：这种事情是完全可以做到的。

And then that hopefully encourages a lot of other companies like this can be done.

随后，风险投资资金将继续向这个市场聚集，而我迫切希望看到这一点。

And then venture capital dollars will continue to coalesce around this marketplace, which I desperately want.

所以我认为这是需要考虑的事情。

So I think that's the thing to consider.

另外，如果我是你们这一方，作为新进入者，你总能在那个部门里找到一些人，比如三百万人中有人说：天啊，这太棒了。

And the other thing, if I'm on your side, if I'm on the new entrance side, you could always find someone in the department, 3,000,000 people say, Man, this is great.

我喜欢它。

I love it.

我喜欢你，兄弟。

I love you, man.

我喜欢这个产品。

I love product.

但钱才是关键，他们真的在购买吗？

But money talks, so are they buying it?

他们在测试吗？

Are they testing it?

他们是否真的在推动你完成整个流程？

Are they doing those are actually pulling you through the process?

因为这才是你是否真正成功的最佳信号。

Because that's the best signal of are you actually successful?

因为那里的文化是从来不说不。

Because the culture there again is to never say no.

我一直在努力推动更快地给出肯定或否定的答复。

And I've tried to move it to faster yeses, faster noes.

所以当你是个初创者时，我能体会到那种痛苦——当你不确定是否能谈成一笔交易时，我宁愿直接被拒绝，这样我就能去寻找下一个合作伙伴，调整产品策略，做点别的什么。这正是我们想推动的文化，也是我对那些年轻创始人说的话。

So that if you're a startup I felt this pain as a startup guy, when you don't really know if you're getting a deal, I'd rather be told no so that I can either move on to the next partner, readjust my product strategy, do something, and that's what we're trying to move the culture to and what I tell the young founders out there.

太棒了。

Awesome.

我们非常感谢这些努力，这对纳税人也有好处。

Well, we're very appreciative of those efforts, and it's good for the taxpayer.

在结束之前，最后一个问题是。

Last question as we wrap up here.

你过得很好。

You have a good life.

你非常成功。

You're very successful.

我猜这并不是一份朝九晚五的工作。

This is not a nine to five job, I assume.

你有家庭。

You have a family.

这让你远离家人。

It takes you away from your family.

对于那些在创业和科技领域、考虑花时间与政府合作、支持政府，并以你为榜样、希望追随你脚步的人，你会对他们说什么？

What would you say to people that are in the startup and tech side of the world who are thinking about spending time working with the government, supporting the government, and look at you as an inspiration and somebody whose shoes they would like to follow and steps they would like to follow?

我认为每个人，尤其是爱国者，都能找到一种回馈社会的方式，回馈的方式有很多。

Well, I think everyone can most patriots figure out a way to give back, and there's lots of ways to give back.

这是我选择的方式，因为我是个移民。

This was my way, which is I'm an immigrant.

我的母语是阿拉伯语。

My first language was Arabic.

我搬到了这个国家。

I moved to this country.

我来到了硅谷。

I get to Silicon Valley.

我见证并参与了那些有趣公司的建设，那时正是我人生中合适的时机，决定这就是我报效国家的方式。

I've seen some of and been able to participate and build some of those interesting companies around, and it was the right time in my life to say, Okay, well this is the way I'm going to serve my country.

我希望我的孩子们能亲眼看到，我们的制度并非理所当然。

I wanted to have my kids see it so that they can see that our system doesn't come for free.

他们需要看到有建设者、有担当的人、愿意为此付出牺牲的人。

They have to have builders, people who care, people who sacrifice to do it.

更不用说那些报名参军、投身战场的战士们，他们选择这样的方式来尽责。

Not to mention all the war fighters who sign up for the jobs that say they sign up, this is the way I could sign up.

确保他们能感受到这一点。

And making sure that they feel that.

对我来说，这极具激励意义，我希望所有身处创业界的人，都能在自己职业生涯的某个恰当时刻找到属于自己的方式去这么做——即使不是在商业领域，也要在之后的某个阶段，因为我们太需要更多人这样做，因为过去政府服务曾是一项受人尊敬的职业。

For me, that's incredibly motivating, and I hope everyone else who's in the startup world finds their own moment to do that, if not in business, but after in the right point in your career and all that, because we need more people to do that because we used to have government service as an honored profession.

曼哈顿计划，汇聚了最优秀的科学家。

The Manhattan Project, best scientists.

现在，我们有很多机会可以充分发挥你的智慧和能力，但我们不能忘记，偶尔仍需要爱国者挺身而出，来做这些事情。

Now, has a lot of opportunities to really exercise your brain and your, you know, in those ways, but we can't forget that we need patriots to kinda come do these kinds of things every now and again.

谢谢您。

Well, thank you.

我们非常感激您所做的一切，感谢您今天与我们分享。

We are so appreciative of the work you're doing, and thank you for being with us today.

我们知道您非常忙碌。

We know you are extraordinarily busy.

谢谢。

Thank you.

感谢您收听这期的a16z播客。

Thanks for listening to this episode of the a 16 z podcast.

如果您喜欢这期节目，请务必点赞、评论、订阅，给我们打分或留下评价，并与您的朋友和家人分享。

If you like this episode, be sure to like, comment, subscribe, leave us a rating or a review, and share it with your friends and family.

如需收听更多节目，请前往YouTube、Apple Podcast和Spotify。

For more episodes, go to YouTube, Apple Podcast, and Spotify.

在X上关注我们@a16z，并在a16z.substack.com订阅我们的Substack频道。

Follow us on x at a sixteen z, and subscribe to our Substack at a16z.substack.com.

再次感谢收听，我们下一期节目再见。

Thanks again for listening, and I'll see you in the next episode.

提醒您，本内容仅作信息参考，不应被视为法律、商业、税务或投资建议，也不应用于评估任何投资或证券，且并非面向任何a16z基金的投资者或潜在投资者。

As a reminder, the content here is for informational purposes only, should not be taken as legal business, tax, or investment advice, or be used to evaluate any investment or security, and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a sixteen z fund.

请注意，a16z及其关联方可能仍持有本播客中讨论的公司的投资。

Please note that a sixteen z and its affiliates may also maintain investments in the companies discussed in this podcast.

如需更多详情，包括我们的投资链接，请访问a16z.com/disclosures。

For more details, including a link to our investments, please see a 16z.com forward slash disclosures.