能源、矿物与人工智能背后的物理基础

美国在关键矿物供应上落后了整整五十年。

The US is fifty years behind on critical minerals supply.

即使拿到了许可，我们在设计、建设和扩大矿物产能方面还是太慢了。

We are too slow at designing, building, and ramping up new minerals capacity even after we have licensed operate.

虽然电网边缘出现了大量创新，但电线另一侧却几乎没有变化。

Even though there's so much innovation happening at the edge of the grid, on the other side of the wire, there's really been no change.

我们俩都是从特斯拉出来的。

We both came out of Tesla.

特斯拉的模式给了你们什么传统工业企业没有的东西？

What does the Tesla model give you that a traditional industrial company doesn't have?

相信你能够革新那些老旧过时的系统。

The belief that you can innovate on systems that are old and archaic.

只要结果值得，特斯拉就会克服一切困难去实现它。

If the outcome is worth it, Tesla will fight through the challenges of getting to that outcome.

我们正在大力押注炼油厂的自动化，用强化学习来彻底取消人工干预，让炼油厂自主运行。

We're making a big bet on autonomy in refineries, where we use reinforcement learning to actually remove humans from the loop in determining how refineries operate.

全球最大的碳化硅生产商就位于美国，而碳化硅是关键的功率半导体材料。

The world's leading producer of silicon carbide, which is a key power semiconductor, is based here in The US.

所以我们应该先在美国本土利用这项技术，优先在国内生产。

And so we should be leveraging the applications of that technology here first, manufacturing here at home.

如果我们不这么做的话

And if we don't

美国的电网仍在使用二战前设计的机械系统。

The US power grid runs on mechanical systems designed before World War II.

美国在关键矿产供应上比中国落后五十年，而这两方面的需求增速都达到了历史最高水平。

American critical mineral supply sits fifty years behind China, and demand for both is accelerating faster than at any point in history.

几十年来，大家一直赌的是，边缘端的创新——更好的电池、更智能的软件、更快的芯片——就足够了。

For decades, the bet was that innovation at the edge better batteries, smarter software, faster chips would be enough.

但事实证明，并不够。

It wasn't.

底层的基础设施根本没跟上。

The infrastructure underneath never kept up.

电网变压器还是用钢、油和铜做的。

Grid transformers are still steel, oil, and copper.

关键矿物仍然要经过美国没有所有权或控制权的精炼厂。

Critical minerals still flow through refineries The US doesn't own or control.

两位打造了Megapack、4680电池单元和特斯拉全球矿产供应链的创始人认为，当年重塑汽车行业的那套方法，同样能改造电网和矿山。

Two founders who built the Megapack, the 4,680 battery cell, and Tesla's global mineral supply chain think the same playbook that rewired the auto industry can rewire the grid and the mine.

限制因素不是雄心。

The constraint isn't ambition.

而是美国产业能否快到真正产生影响。

It's whether American industry can move fast enough to matter.

特纳·卡德威尔和德鲁·巴格利诺与埃琳·普赖斯-赖特讨论了兆瓦、矿产和新的战略制高点。

Turner Caldwell and Drew Baglino speak with Erin Price-Wright about megawatts, minerals, and the new strategic high ground.

现在很容易把人工智能的竞争看作是模型和芯片的较量，但事实上，人工智能的主导权和更广泛的再工业化，本质上都是实体项目。

Now it's tempting to talk about the AI race as a competition of models and chips, but the truth is that AI dominance and reindustrialization more broadly are physical projects.

它们是能源项目。

They are energy projects.

它们是采矿和提炼的工程。

They are mining and refining projects.

它们是制造的工程。

They are manufacturing projects.

它们是电网规模的工程。

They are grid scale projects.

我们今天要谈到的每一个突破性模型、新工厂和自动驾驶系统，背后都有实实在在的物质需求。

Every breakthrough model, new factory, and autonomous system that we'll talk about here today has a real world requirement underneath it.

需要材料、能源，以及在需要的时候把电力输送到需要的地方的能力。

Materials, energy, and the ability to move electricity where it's needed, when it's needed.

我们越来越多地听到这样的担忧：人工智能会给本就吃力的电网带来过大压力，会要求比我们能提供的更多能源，比我们能跟上的更多建设。

We increasingly hear concerns that AI will put an undue strain on an already faltering grid, will demand more energy than we can give, more build out than we can keep up with.

在很多方面，这些担忧是有道理的。

And in many ways, are fair concerns.

但我们没有就此止步、放弃推进，而是把这看作一种行动的号召，一个机遇。

But rather than taking this at face value and putting our pencils down on progress, we see this as a call to action, an opportunity.

我们国家完全有能力成就伟大的事业。

We can do great things in this country.

过去我们曾为国家项目团结一致，完成过许多别人觉得不可能的事，现在我们依然可以。

We have rallied around national projects before, accomplished things few dreamed possible, and we can do so again.

这将是美国活力的下一个篇章。

This is the next chapter of American dynamism.

如果我们真想重建美国的工业根基，就必须从关键矿产、能源生产、电力输送，到以所需速度建设与互联新基础设施，全面重新思考整个链条。

If we want to rebuild the industrial backbone of The United States, we have to rethink the entire stack from critical minerals to energy generation to transmission to how we build and interconnect new infrastructure at the speed that it's needed.

接下来的对话，我们将邀请两位在这一整条产业链上深耕的杰出企业家，聊聊要实现这一切究竟需要什么。

This next conversation brings together two incredible entrepreneurs building across that stack to talk about what it will take to do just that.

让我们欢迎马里亚纳矿业的联合创始人兼首席执行官特纳·卡德威尔，以及赫龙电力的创始人兼首席执行官德鲁·巴格利诺。

Please join me in welcoming co founder and CEO of Mariana Minerals, Turner Caldwell, and founder and CEO of Heron Power, Drew Baglino.

今天我们会花很多时间讨论人工智能，但制约美国人工智能未来的，其实是这些基础条件。

We'll spend a lot more time in this room today talking about AI, but the constraint on America's AI future.

正如我之前提到的，我认为更广泛的再工业化，本质上是关于原子，而不是算法。

And as I mentioned, I think reindustrialization more broadly is in many ways atoms and not algorithms.

所以你们两位都在构建未来AI经济不可或缺的基础物理设施。

So you two are both building fundamental pieces of this physical infrastructure that the future AI economy can't live without.

为了让听众有个初步了解，能不能简单介绍一下你们各自在做什么，以及这些实体产业为什么重要？

So maybe just for the audience to get started, why don't you briefly explain what you both build and why these physical industries matter?

好的。

Yeah.

Mariana Minerals 是一家软件优先的矿产开采和精炼公司。

So Mariana Minerals is a software first minerals mining and refining company.

我说的‘软件优先’，意思是公司里大概有四分之一是软件工程师和机器学习工程师，他们在开发三个核心操作系统，用来加快项目交付速度，并提升矿产开采和冶炼作业中的自动化程度。

When I say software first, what that means is that about a quarter of the company is software engineers, machine learning engineers that are developing three core operating systems to accelerate project delivery and increase the amount of autonomy that we see in minerals operations and in refining operations.

Capital Project OS 基本上是一个产品生命周期管理工具。

Capital Project OS is basically a product life cycle management tool.

你可以这么理解它，它涵盖了从工艺开发、矿山开发，一直到工程设计、施工和采购的全过程，并在这一整套流程中实现基于智能体的工作流自动化。

It's the way to think about it, but that goes from process development, mine development, all the way through engineering, construction, and procurement, and doing agentic workflow automation kind of through that stack.

PlantOS 是我们利用强化学习来控制炼油厂的方式，而 MineOS 则是我们利用强化学习对矿山作业进行短期自主控制的方式。

PlantOS is how we use reinforcement learning to control refineries, and MineOS is again how we use reinforcement learning to control, do short interval autonomous control of mining operations.

但我们并不出售软件。

But we do not sell software.

我们不是一家SaaS公司。

We are not a SaaS company.

我们开发、工程设计、建造并运营矿产项目。

We develop, we engineer, build, and operate minerals projects.

我们在犹他州东南部有一座正在运营的铜矿，目前正生产高品位的铜材料。

And so we have a copper mine that's operating in Southeast Utah that's producing high grade copper materials today, high purity copper materials today.

我们正在德克萨斯州建设一座锂精炼厂，目标是在未来十年内建成十个这样的项目。

And we're building a lithium refinery in Texas with the goal of building 10 projects in the next ten years.

那您呢，德鲁？

How about you, Drew?

是的。

Yeah.

首先，感谢您今天邀请我代表赫龙电力团队前来分享。

So first, thank you for having me today here representing the Heron Power team.

在Heron Power，我们研发电力电子设备，推动电力行业加速升级。

So at Heron Power, we build power electronics to accelerate the electricity sector.

过去四十年里，随着计算领域晶体管遵循摩尔定律持续进步，功率晶体管也经历了类似的性能提升。

Over the last four decades, in parallel with the Moore's law improvement of transistors in compute, there's been a similar improvement in power transistors.

这些年来，这种进步催生了越来越多的应用场景。

And over those decades, it's enabled more and more applications.

比如我们给手机充电的方式、通信系统，还有数据中心，都能看到它们的身影。

We see them in our how we charge our phones, in telecommunications, in data centers.

但这种进步至今还没真正应用到电网本身。

But really that improvement hasn't been brought to the grid itself.

在电力需求因多种积极因素持续增长的当下，电力和能源的增长与经济繁荣息息相关，我们迫切需要新的解决方案。幸运的是，功率半导体领域已经准备好提供这些方案，我对此充满期待。

And in a time of growing demand for electricity for so many different reasons, all of them positive, and the fact that electricity growth and energy growth is correlated with economic growth and prosperity, we need new solutions and luckily the power semiconductor space is is ready to bring those solutions and I'm excited to do that.

在HempPower，我们专注于研发固态变压器，用硅芯片和软件替代传统电力转换设备中的钢材、油料和铜材，应用场景包括数据中心、大规模新能源项目如光伏和储能系统等。

At HempPower, we're focused on building solid state transformers to use silicon and software to replace steel, oil, and copper in power conversion at data centers, large scale energy installations like solar and battery projects, and others.

太棒了。

Amazing.

美国政府已经明确把保障关键矿物、先进制造的供应链列为重中之重，同时也在人工智能领域全力应对中国。

So the US government has made it a pretty clear and loud priority to reassure critical supply chains from critical minerals, advanced manufacturing, and there's also been a lot of focus in the AI race against China.

所以简单来说，如果像你们这样的美国公司没能崛起，我们会面临什么局面？

So maybe in plain terms, where does it leave us if American companies like yours don't exist and win?

是的。

Yeah.

我来先回答这个问题。

I can take that first.

其实，推动固态变压器发展的这种功率半导体技术，正是联邦政府、学术界和产业界数十年合作的成果。

Well, this power semiconductor capability that is enabling solid state transformers actually is the outgrowth of many decades of partnership between the federal government and academia and industry.

能源部和海军都长期大力投入先进半导体的研发。

Both the DOE and the Navy have focused a lot on advanced semiconductors.

因此，这项技术最初诞生的地方，自然也应该是它实现商业化、释放全部价值的地方。

So it just makes sense that the place where this technology was first developed should be the place where it all the benefits are commercialized.

全球最大的碳化硅生产商——而碳化硅是关键的功率半导体材料——就扎根在美国。

The world's leading producer of silicon carbide, which is a key power semiconductor, is based here in The US.

所以我们应该先在国内利用这项技术的应用，把生产留在本土。

And so we should be leveraging the applications of that technology here first, manufacturing here at home.

如果我们不这么做，就会把这项技术带来的所有好处拱手让给其他国家，我觉得我们不该这样。

And if we don't, we're basically losing the all the benefits that accrue from that technology to other countries, and I don't think we should do that.

是的，说白了，美国在关键矿产供应链上落后了五十年。

Yeah, think, put plainly, The US is fifty years behind on critical mineral supply.

如果我们不在关键矿产领域搞创新，就永远赶不上。

And so if we're not innovating in the critical mineral space, we will be perpetually behind.

而中国现在为了加速发展所做的那些事，

And the things that China does right now to accelerate

你所说的落后，是特指落后于中国吗？

And when you say behind, you mean specifically behind China?

就是特指落后于中国。

Specifically behind China.

但我还想说，从全球范围来看，我们已经落后了几十年。

But I would say also globally, we have a couple of decades of lag.

从顶层来看，我们可以加快审批流程，让项目融资更容易获得，但这些并不能解决根本问题——即使拿到了运营许可，我们在设计、建设和提升新矿产产能方面还是太慢了。

The things that we can do at the top level are accelerate permitting, we can make project level finance more available, but that doesn't actually solve the underlying problem, which is that we are too slow at designing, building, and ramping up new minerals capacity even after we have license to operate.

所以玛丽安娜特别关注项目开发的这个阶段：没错，你确实得先拿到审批。

And so Mariana is laser focused on that phase of project development, which is you have to get things permitted, yes.

但一旦开始建设，可能要花五年才能建成，之后还要再花三到五年才能让项目达到满负荷运行。

But once you start building, it can take five years to get something built, then it can take three or three to five years to get something actually operating at rate.

正因如此，我们才特别聚焦于此——即使我们开始减轻负担，试图追上中国，我们也必须比中国跑得更快。

And that's why we're laser focused on that, so that even if we kind of start to lower the burdens to play catch up with China, we actually have to go faster than China does.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

你们两位都在特斯拉待了很长时间。

Both of you spent a long time at Tesla.

德鲁，你在特斯拉待了十八年。

Drew, you spent eighteen years at Tesla.

你在电力电子圈里简直就像个传奇人物。

You're like something of a deity among power electronics nerds, I would say.

现在你转做电网规模的电力系统，这可不一样了。

And now you work on grid scale power systems, which is different.

那你当初看电网的时候，是什么让你决定离开特斯拉，来啃这个看似枯燥又难搞的问题？

So when you looked at the grid, what convinced you to leave Tesla and tackle this problem, this, I think, seemingly unsexy unsexy problem in in this way?

顺便问一下，要在美國做这种事，到底需要多少时间、多少钱，还要跨越多少监管障碍？

And maybe adding on to that, what does it actually take in terms of time, cost, regulatory hurdles, do this in The US?

这问题可不小。

Big question there.

你问了两个问题。

Two questions.

不好意思啊。

I apologize.

是的。

Yeah.

我当时近距离见证了电网边缘一系列极具影响力的创新。

Well, I was I had a front row seat to an amazing set of impactful innovations at the grid's edge.

对吧？

Right?

电动车越来越便宜，不只是便宜，而且随处可见；我们建起了支持这些电动车的超级充电网络，还搞起了电网储能。

EVs becoming more affordable, not just more affordable, but more omnipresent around us, building the supercharging infrastructure to support those electric vehicles, and then working on grid storage.

我负责过Megapack项目，也推动了特斯拉能源业务的规模化。

I was responsible for Megapack and scaling the energy business at Tesla.

但一路看下来，我发现虽然电网边缘创新不断，可电线另一头的系统却几乎纹丝不动。

And all along the way, I saw was even though there's so much innovation happening at the edge of the grid, on the other side of the wire, there's really been no change.

如今支撑电网的系统，大体还是百年前开发的那些机械式设备。

The systems underpinning the grid today are the same largely mechanical systems that were developed over a hundred years ago.

你既没法控制，也没法监控，结果只能靠过度建设来维持，系统反而更脆弱。

And you don't get control, you don't get monitoring, you end up with an overbuilt system that is fragile.

而且能提供这些设备的供应商本来就少，大部分还都在海外，这么关键的基础设施，美国要是全靠进口，这安全形势实在让人担忧。

And also there's not a lot of suppliers providing that equipment and most of them are actually headquartered overseas and that just doesn't seem like a secure position for such critical infrastructure for us to have here in The United States.

在这里，到底要怎么做才能把事情推进下去？

What does it take to get things done here?

我觉得你是能做到的。

I think you can.

我带着团队在加州拉瑟罗建了这座超级工厂，只用了十一个月。

I mean I built the mega factory with my team and my team was super awesome in Lathrop, California in eleven months.

那地方原本是个JCPenney的仓库，十一个月后，第一条产品线就跑起来了。

It was a JCPenney warehouse eleven months later, the first product came off the line.

但归根结底，关键在于达成共识。

But ultimately, what it comes down to is alignment.

当你跟当地政府部门打交道时，他们可以用合规流程在每一步都卡你，也可以在每一步都放行。

When you're working with your local jurisdiction, they can use the process for a code compliant project to say no at every step, or they can say yes at every step.

那我们怎么才能一起达成共识，让大家明白：重振美国制造业、建设关键基础设施、把供应链扎根在美国本土，这些都是好事？我们要找到办法，在每个环节都点头放行，而不是处处设阻，真正加快这些进程。

And so how do we as a collective, you know, gain alignment that building re industrializing The US, building critical infrastructure, supporting our critical supply chains here in The US is a good thing, and identifying ways to say yes at every step along the way and really accelerate these processes versus no.

一旦找到这种共识，事情就会变得特别顺利。

And when you do find that, it can be magical.

这跟我自己的经历完全一致。

That's been my experience.

我知道你特别提到过劳动力成本和用工短缺，很多人常把这当作在美国做不成事的理由。

And I know in particular, you've talked about sort of labor costs and labor shortages, and oftentimes people point to that as the reason why they can't get things done in The US.

但你自己的实际经验是怎样的呢？

But what's your experience then?

确实如此。

Yeah.

现在的工厂其实高度自动化。

I mean, these today's factories are really automated.

如果你今天要在中美任何一地建新厂，劳动力成本占产品总成本的差距不到10%。

If you're building a new factory today, you know, in China or The US, the labor differential is less than 10% of cost of goods sold.

甚至可能不到5%。

It might even be less than 5%.

但在我看来，真正决定不同地区竞争力的，其实是供应链。

But what actually is driving the competitiveness of the different locations in my mind is it comes down to supply chain.

那我们怎么在美国建立这种紧密布局的关键供应链呢？因为这样物流距离和成本都会大幅降低，物流时间也短得多。

And how do we develop co located critical supply chains in The United States where the logistics costs are much, much shorter and much, much lower because the logistics time is much, much shorter?

你看中国，他们在规划工业区时特别周到，比如造一辆车需要七千个零部件，几乎所有的供应商都在三小时车程之内。

If you look at, you know, China, they are so thoughtful about building these industrial areas, know, everything that you could possibly need to build a car which has 7,000 parts in it, you know, is within less than a three hours drive.

在美国实现这种供应链的高度集聚，再配合自动化，不仅能大幅提升效率，还能创造大量高薪且重要的工作岗位。

Getting to that kind of co location of the supply base in The United States would be a major unlock along with automation while still providing immense numbers of of of, like, high paying, you know, important jobs.

我觉得这才是我想推动的愿景。

I think that's a vision that I I'd like to advocate for.

对。

Yeah.

而且我们说工厂里的工作，早就不是你祖父或者曾祖父时代那种流水线作业了。

And I I mean, when we're talking about jobs on the within factories, this isn't, you know, your grandfather, great grandfather's supply chain assembly line factory floor.

现在这些是技术型岗位，往往需要专业培训。

These are, you know, technical jobs, may require training,

没错。

Yes.

要有相应的技能，还得有相匹配的薪酬。

Know, have skill and the pay associated with that.

完全正确。

A 100%.

明白了。

Okay.

特纳，美国政府将关键矿产的本土化列为经济和国家安全的重中之重。

Turner, the US government ranks onshoring critical minerals as essential to economic and national security.

过去一年里，这事儿在新闻里频繁出现。

It's been in the news a lot for the last year.

稀土、关键矿产，这些资源现在都卡得很死。

Rare earths, critical minerals, you know, these things feel very bottlenecked.

确实，这些材料的加工能力大部分都设在海外，尤其是地缘政治对手，比如中国。

Yep, so much of the processing capacity for these materials sits overseas, especially in geopolitical rivals, namely China.

既然存在这种脆弱性，马里亚纳矿业公司是如何帮助美国不仅夺回关键矿产的开采权，还能掌控加工和供应链的自主权呢？

So given that vulnerability, how does Mariana Minerals work help The US reclaim not just the extraction side, the actual mining, but processing and supply chain sovereignty for critical minerals?

是的

Yeah.

所以我们专注于从采矿到炼制的整个链条。

So, you know, we focus on the full chain from mining all the way through refining.

你必须关注整个链条。

You have to focus on the full chain.

中间的交接环节会带来很多实际的市场低效问题。

That hand off in the middle leads to a lot of actual, like, market inefficiencies.

但我们从根本上押注于自动化。

But the you know, we've we're making a big bet on autonomy, fundamentally.

我们坚信，可以通过大型语言模型构建系统，加快工程进度，加速采购周期，并实现建设运营的自主灵活调控——比如实时平衡现场材料、任务清单和人员配置，这些都可以通过算法自动优化。

Like, we're making a big bet on the fact that we can build systems that enable us to engineer things faster using large language models, accelerate the pure the procurement life cycle, and do autonomous short and nimble control of construction operations where you're really doing resource balancing between what materials do you have on-site, what's your list of tasks, and what people do you have on-site, and kind of like doing that optimization is all things that can be done algorithmically.

我们还在炼油厂领域大力投入自动化，利用强化学习彻底将人工干预从运营决策中移除。

And then we're making big bets on autonomy in refineries where we use reinforcement learning to actually remove humans from the loop in determining how refineries operate.

当原料成分高度多变时——毕竟地球的矿藏本就参差不齐——你就得不断调整温度、流速、化学添加剂的投放量，以及复杂炼油回路中的各种反应参数。

And so when you have a highly variable feedstock, because the earth is heterogeneous, you need to constantly be tuning the temperatures, the flow rates, the chemical addition rates, the resonance signs of a highly complex refining circuit.

而我们这里没有那样一支具备丰富经验的劳动力队伍，能直接走进炼油厂，迅速让设备达到标准运行状态，还能应对各种波动。

And we don't have that labor pool here that has that embedded know how that can walk up to a refinery and quickly get it operating on spec and then also manage that variability.

采矿方面也是同样的情况，在那些矿场，我们每天要做成千上万的决策。

And the same is true on the mining side of things where mining at those mine sites were making thousands of decisions a day.

如果缺乏能做出正确判断、完成这成千上万个决策的团队，就会导致生产效率低下、设备可用性差、利用率不足。但光靠软件是远远不够的，我们之前也提到过，我们是垂直整合的。

And when you don't have that labor pool of folks that are able to make the right decisions, the right thousand decisions, that can cascade into low productivity, low availability of equipment, and low utilization of And but the the software angle is really not enough, and we kind of talked about how we're vertically integrated.

真正决定软件和技术在这些工厂和矿场推广速度的，不是技术门槛，而是运营团队。

The the the gate to software penetration, really not the gate, what sets the rate of software penetration and technology penetration into these into these plants and into these mines, ultimately is the operating teams.

他们习惯用的工具是什么？大部分情况下，还是纸笔，再加上一堆零散分布在各处的上百个表格。

It's like what is the tech stack that they're comfortable with, and then for the most part, is pen and paper and maybe a 150 spreadsheets that are kind of scattered around in operation.

要想真正加快软件在这一领域的应用，你必须深入运营层，理解他们面临的核心问题，同时还要主导文化变革，确保软件工具本身是为一线操作人员量身设计的。

And what you need to do in order to actually accelerate software uptake in the space is you have to go down into that operating layer, understand the core problems that they're facing, but then also really control the culture and make sure that the the the software tools themselves are designed for the folks that are gonna have to be interfacing with them.

所以我们认为，让软件工程师直接和运营团队坐在一起——不是那种‘前线工程师’式的派驻，而是真正目标一致、协同工作——这才是优化这些资产的最佳方式。

And that's why we think that sitting the software engineers right next to the operating teams, but not in like a forward deploy engineer type way where everyone has the same incentives is what's gonna yield the best results when it comes to trying to optimize these assets.

对。

Mhmm.

对。

Mhmm.

正如我之前提到的，你们两位都来自特斯拉。

Now you both as I mentioned before, you both came out of Tesla.

特斯拉是第一家在美国重新建厂并证明美国动态模式可行的公司，这在很长一段时间里都是破天荒的。

It's one of the companies that proved the template for American Dynamic's success, built factories in America for the first time in a long time.

特纳，你当时领导了特斯拉的矿物与金属团队。

Turner, you led Tesla's mineral minerals and metals team.

德鲁，你负责动力总成和能源业务。

Drew, you ran powertrain and energy.

特斯拉的模式给你们带来了哪些传统工业公司不具备的优势？

What does the Tesla model give you that a traditional industrial company doesn't have?

在你们现在各自的领域里，实际建造过程中有哪些真正出乎意料的不同之处，和在特斯拉时不一样？

And what is genuinely different maybe about building in your new respective sectors that you didn't expect relative to Tesla?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得主要有三点，可能跟德鲁说的有重叠。

I'd say there I'd say there are three big ones, and they might overlap a little bit with with Drew's.

但我觉得，特斯拉在这些领域对技术的乐观态度，对技术能做什么的信念，要强得多。

But I think that the general, like, techno optimism and, like, the what technology can do in this in these sectors is much, much higher at Tesla.

对吧？

Right?

公司核心的理念就是，相信你能够革新那些老旧过时的系统。

The belief that you can innovate on systems that are old and archaic is, like, at the core of the company.

第二点是普遍愿意承担风险，这能让决策速度飞快，团队也能迅速行动，而不被害怕犯错的心理拖累。

The other is a general, like, appetite for risk, which enables super fast decision making and enables the teams to move really quickly with without being burdened with, you know, fear of making the wrong decision.

第三点是，对有前景的项目，公司有明确而坚定的承诺，绝不轻言放弃。

And the last is, like, a clear, you know, firm commitment to not giving up on projects that have the outcome.

只要目标值得，特斯拉就会咬牙克服一切困难，坚持到底。

Like, the outcome is worth it, like, we that Tesla will, like, fight through the challenges of getting to that outcome.

我觉得在矿产行业，我们看到的情况是，人们往往只试一年就放弃了。

And I think what we see, at least in in in the minerals industry, is, like, folks will give it a shot for a year.

你知道，很久以来就有人尝试在采矿业实现自动化。

You know, people have tried to do autonomy in mining for a long time.

通常很多公司最后都会失败，把项目搁置，或者只让一个小团队负责，之后就再也没人搭理了。

And generally, lot of companies will just end up, you know, they'll fail, they'll put it on the shelf, or they'll isolate it into a small team that goes and they they don't get really tapped again.

而特斯拉的厉害之处就在于，只要结果值得，就硬着头皮把困难一一克服。

And Tesla does a really good job of just like barreling through the challenges as long as the outcome is worth it.

我觉得还可以补充几点。

I would add a couple more aspects of it.

在特斯拉的发展历程中，公司未来的成败，甚至员工工资能不能发得出来，往往就取决于内部团队能不能干好。

You know, many times in Tesla's history, you know, the company's future success, really like whether or not the paycheck will clear, you know, was bet on the team within the company executing well.

这是一种非常现实的聚焦压力。

And that is a very like focusing reality.

它逼着每个人拿出最好的状态，非得把目标实现不可。

And it drives people to do their best work and like you end up needing to manifest that outcome.

我不太想用‘背水一战’这个词，但情况确实差不多就是那样。

You know it's I hate to say do or die, but it's equivalent to that.

这种氛围在初创公司里是独有的。

So that's that's something that exists uniquely within startups.

我和特纳正努力把这种文化带进我们的团队，但在传统工业企业里，根本不可能有这样的环境。

I mean, think, you know, Turner and I are gonna try to bring that are bringing that to our own teams, but and and wouldn't be in in a legacy industrial, you know, you know, company.

另外，公司从一开始就有清晰的使命，这就像一块磁石，吸引着优秀人才。

The other thing is there was always a clear vision of the purpose of the company, and that's like a beacon for talent.

对吧？

Right?

人们一听说，就觉得：我想参与这个项目。

People like, oh, I I wanna work on that.

听起来太棒了。

That's like, that sounds amazing.

所以你从一开始就能挑到最顶尖的人才。

And so you get to basically pick from the best already.

然后你又身处一个高速发展的环境里。

And then you're in this high growth environment.

任何对职业发展感到兴奋、希望自己的前景向好的人，都会想加入这样的公司，而且会留下来，亲眼见证它成长，因为他们的付出真的能带来改变。

Know, anybody who is excited about their career trajectory and and and having a trend in a in a good direction is also gonna wanna work there and then is also gonna wanna stay there and see it through because their impact is real.

他们能清楚看到自己的行动如何影响周围的结果，而这些结果又反过来推动他们自身的成长。

They see the impact of their actions on the outcomes around them and then those outcomes result in their own growth.

他们会像特纳那样，或者像我一样，在公司内部从一个部门调到另一个部门。

They move from one part of the company like Turner did to another or or myself.

我的职业经历就是这样。

I mean, my my my career history.

这跟那些几十年来一直卖同样产品的大型工业集团，或者有着一百五十年历史的矿业公司，形成了鲜明对比。

So I think those are are are are in stark comparison to like a, you know, multiproduct conglomerate industrial conglomerate that's selling the same thing today that they they were selling, decades ago or a mining company that's got a 150 of heritage.

这种氛围在初创公司里很难复制，也很难长期维持，但我认为它对推动事情真正落地至关重要。

So that's a hard thing to replicate not in a start up, and it's a hard thing to maintain within a start up, but I I think it's really important to getting things done.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

完全正确。

Totally.

说到推进事情、组建团队和招聘，有一点很明显：你们两家公司都在建设真实的生产设施，将创造实实在在的就业岗位。

Talking about kind of getting things done and building that team and being able to hire, you know, one thing that jumps out is both of your companies are building real facilities that will create real jobs.

特纳，你初期的锂和铜项目在未来18个月内将带来500多个建筑岗位和更多全职岗位，随着业务扩张，还会继续增加。

Turner, your initial lithium and copper projects should add, you know, over 500 construction jobs and additional full time jobs in the next eighteen months, with many more as you scale operations.

德鲁，赫隆正准备建设第一家大型工厂，预计也会提供大约500个岗位，而这还只是众多工厂中的第一个。

Drew, Heron is getting ready to build out its first large factory, which should also be something around 500 jobs, and, you know, that's just the first factory of many.

你们俩在2026年的美国建设工业团队时，学到了哪些经验？

What have you both learned about building an industrial workforce in The US in 2026?

我认为在美国做这件事，必须得有创意。

I think you have to be creative here in The US.

我们正在重新工业化，但不可能随便打个电话就能找到一群电力电子制造工程师或生产人员。

We are re industrializing, and I can't just go to like a phone tree of power electronics manufacturing engineers or or or production associates.

就我本人的经历来说，我和团队一起建成了4680项目的制造工厂——一座位于德克萨斯州、年产能50吉瓦时的电池工厂。

And, I mean, in my background, I built I was responsible for building along with my team the 4,680 program manufacturing facility, a 50 gigawatt hour battery facility in Texas.

那时候，美国根本没多少电池生产项目，你只能去别的行业找类似的人才。

And, you know, at that point, there were really not a lot of battery operations in United States, you instead have to look for analogs.

所以我招了很多来自高速灌装线和注射器制造厂的人，那些地方每天生产数十亿支注射器。

So I was hiring people out of high speed bottling plants and out of you know, syringe manufacturing facilities where they're making billions of syringes.

只要你能想出这种创新的用人办法，就会发现美国其实藏着大量人才，大家都很愿意投身新兴行业。只要大家能形成共同的愿景，你就能在这里做成很多事情，我对未来充满信心。

And you know if you can get that creative hack going, you find that there's immense depth of talent in The US and and people are excited to work in new industries and and you you build that shared vision of the future and and and I I'm I'm very positive about what you can get accomplished here.

说得对。

Yeah.

我觉得借鉴其他行业的经验特别关键。

I would say that looking at analog industries is a great point.

拿我们这个行业来说，情况也差不多，过去三十五年，劳动力储备几乎断层了。

It's the, you know, for for the buying industry, we're in a similar position where we're kind of, we've had thirty five years of just meaningful attrition in the labor pool.

但石油和天然气行业里，其实藏着一大批非常优秀的技术人才。

But the oil and gas sector has much of extremely good talent.

还有软件领域，我们工厂用的那些优化算法，跟打车软件的派单算法、遛狗App的路线规划、贷款风控、广告投放优化，本质上都差不多。

And the software space, you know, a lot of the underlying optimization algorithms that we're writing for our plants, they look very, similar to the optimization algorithms that are in dog walking apps and Uber ride optimization, underwriting loans, ad optimization.

所以，美国整体的人才池里，这些技能是可以迁移的。

And so the there is transferability in the in the, like, broader US talent pool.

关键是要打造一个吸引人才的磁场。

What's important is building that talent magnet.

对我们来说，这挺有意思，因为矿业在电影里总是被塑造成反派，那些搞资源开采的。

And it's a it's an interesting one for us because, you know, the the the mining industry, like the villains in every movie are the the resource extraction folks.

所以我们得想办法扭转这种印象，让大家重新认识它。

And so we have to we have to, like, combat that and kind of say that

重新变得有吸引力。

sexy again.

没错，就是这样。

That well, that's that's right.

确实如此。

That's Yeah.

最后，我知道时间到了，但如果你能对在座各位提一个具体、可操作的建议，能实实在在加快本土制造、推动就业，就在未来十二到二十四个月内，你会说什么？

Finally, I know we're out of time, but if you had one specific and actionable ask for the people in this room that would materially speed up production, onshore manufacturing, create jobs in the next twelve to twenty four months, what would what would you say?

你来说吧。

You have the floor.

我先来。

I'll go I'll go first.

如果我们有矿产方面的政策目标，那就该参考过去五十年里为石油和天然气制定能源政策时的做法——毕竟我们至今仍需要能源政策。

I think the you know, if we have a minerals mandate, what we should do is we should look at everything that was done in the last fifty years for oil and gas when we had an energy mandate, and we still have an energy mandate.

这话说起来，其实把很多要求都浓缩成了一条。

And, you know, that's a lot of asks boiled down into one.

但可用的工具其实不少。

But there are a lot of tools in the toolkit.

最关键的是建立一套合理的激励机制，让私人资本愿意投入这些项目，让他们相信长期来看市场是稳定的，不会在行业已经三十年没怎么发展起来的美国突然变卦。

And I think the most important thing is providing the right incentive structure that mobilizes the private capital markets behind these projects, so that they're confident that there is a market in the long term, and that the rug isn't gonna get pulled out from from under them in an industry that you know for the last thirty years really hasn't been built out in The US?

对。

Yeah.

需要一种能长期依赖的产业政策，让大家有把握做规划。

I think durable industrial policy that you can plan around.

我非常支持在美国本土制造这些技术，把产业建在这里。

I mean, I'm very pro manufacturing in The United States, building these technologies in The United States.

但我的供应商和投资方没那么有信心。

But, you know, my suppliers and my financiers are not as certain.

所以，确实需要一项长期稳定的产业政策来推动这个方向。

So, yeah, durable industrial policy driving in this direction.

我觉得联邦政府和各州应该协同合作，明确哪些地区适合发展能源和制造业，打造我之前提到的那种集约化供应链，这会是巨大的突破。

I think a concerted effort between the federal government and the states to identify areas of like energy and manufacturing build out like so you can get those collocated supply chains that I mentioned before would be a major win.

也就是说，地方政府应该积极支持项目，而不是一路上处处设阻、找理由否决。

You know, where where the local jurisdictions are getting to yes with you rather than trying to find ways to say no all the way along the project.

最后一点，我特别看好电力行业。

And then the last thing is I'm a fan of the electricity sector.

我觉得它正在推动大量的增长。

I think it's enabling so much growth.

我赞成为电网设立一个类似联邦公路信托基金的机制。

I like the idea of a Federal Highway Trust Fund for the grid.

这种机制从来就不存在过。

It never has existed.

这正是为什么我们现在这么支离破碎的原因。

That's sort of why we have this patchwork.

我们该怎么制定一个整体规划，把那些线性基础设施建起来，把制造和能源基地连起来，提升韧性、降低成本，真正推动国家向前发展？

How do we find a master plan of build out of linear infrastructure that maybe connects those manufacturing energy build out zones to improve resilience, reduce costs, and really move us forward as a nation?

太棒了。

Awesome.

非常感谢。

Thanks so much.

你们刚才听到的就是这样。

You heard it here.

很好。

Great.

谢谢。

Thank you.

感谢收听本期a16z播客。

Thanks for listening to this episode of the a16z podcast.

如果你喜欢这期节目，别忘了点赞、评论、订阅，给我们打分或写评价，也推荐给你的朋友和家人。

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Follow us on x at a sixteen z, and subscribe to our Substack at a sixteen z dot substack dot com.

再次感谢收听，我们下期节目再见。

Thanks again for listening, and I'll see you in the next episode.

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