从副驾驶到智能体：围绕AI重构企业

对我们来说非常关键的一点是整个市场的规模。

One thing that was really relevant for us is the size of the overall market.

我们寻找的是那些单个城市交易规模超过2万亿美元的机会的城市。

We were looking for cities that it was bigger than a $2,040,000,000,000 opportunity as a city, as its own, in terms of transactions.

第二，我们所解决的问题有多严重，比如欺诈率是多少？

Two, how deep the problem is that we were solving, you know, whether it had, what was the fraud rate?

融资渗透率是多少？

What was the financing penetration?

问题越多、欺诈越严重、融资越稀缺，对我们和我们所构建的产品就越有利。

You know, the more problems that it had, the more frauds, the less financing availability, the better for us, and for what we were building.

还有汽车的订单金额，对吧？

And also the size of the ticket of the car, right?

盈利模式至关重要，一开始就必须拥有正确的单位经济模型，才能持续支持增长。

Economics play a big, it's really important at the beginning that you have the right unit economics to sort of be able to continue to fund your growth.

因此，任何订单金额低于1万美元的城市，一开始都不符合我们的扩张标准。

So any ticket size that was below $10,000 didn't make sense for us as an expansion city at the beginning.

当我们筛选出这些城市时，符合所有这些条件的城市已经所剩无几。

So when we mapped out those cities, you have very few cities left that are going through all of these things.

这就是我们确定进入城市的依据。

And that's how we mapped out the cities that we're in.

有时我们进入市场时非常谨慎，只是缓慢地推进并学习。

Sometimes we went in really not aggressive, we just went in slow and learned.

另一些时候我们则采取更积极的策略，通过过去几年在多个城市的实际操作来积累经验。

Other times we went in a little bit more aggressive, and we got the learnings through sort of like just doing this in several cities throughout the past years.

但我们的目标始终不仅仅是建立全球存在，而是前四年里投入资源、培育这些市场，跟随数据，确保构建出能够规模化扩展这些市场所需的数据能力。

But it's always been about not just establishing a global presence, it's about getting, investing and seeding these markets for the first four years, follow the data, and try to make sure that you build the right data capabilities to scale those markets.

而在每一个市场中，我们看到的是，一旦你建立了足够的底层基础设施，经过若干年后，规模化就会变得容易得多，并且会复制我们在墨西哥看到的模式。

And what we see in every single one of them is that after a certain amount of years that you build all of this infrastructure below it, that scalability becomes a lot easier and replicates what we saw in Mexico.

因此，我们从未有过打造一家全球性公司的野心。

So it's never been the ambition to build a global company.

我们的目标是解决这个全球性问题。

The ambition is to solve this global issue.

我们正在努力把握好这个节奏。

And we're trying to pace ourselves into that.

非常坦诚。

Very honest.

好的。

Alright.

我想回到2017年。

I wanna jump back to 2017.

你发布了一份全公司范围的备忘录，开头写道：‘我希望开始用机器人管道来补充我们的人员管道。’

And you put out a a company wide memo, which started with, I'd like to start complementing our people pipeline with a robot pipeline.

为了让大家有个基本认知，2017年，Transformer论文刚刚发布。

And just to ground all of us, 2017, the transformer paper had just come out.

那时距离ChatGPT的出现还有五年多的时间。

It was still five plus years until there was ChatGPT.

而你当时说得非常具体。

And then you were pretty specific.

你就像说，我们要有一个机器人一，负责采购的副总裁，机器人二，负责客户满意度，机器人三，负责交叉销售，等等。

You're like, we're gonna have robot one, the VP of sourcing, robot two, customer satisfaction, robot three, cross selling, and so on.

所以今天，许多公司已经开始实施这一点。

And so today, many companies are starting to implement that.

但在2017年，这并不是大多数人的首要考虑。

In 2017, that was not something that was top of mind for most.

让我们回到你的想法，是什么促使你这样思考的？

Like, bring us back to your thinking there and what and what drove that.

我们知道我们正在构建一个非常复杂的业务。

We knew that we were building this really complex business.

正如我们之前提到的，我们正在构建一个垂直整合的业务，其中包含许多不同层次的业务。

We were building, as we mentioned before, a business that was vertically integrated, had many sort of different businesses layered into it.

而且我们一直在处理各种极端案例。

And we were dealing with real edge cases.

当你试图解决与客户汽车相关的生命周期价值时，你总是在处理极端案例。

When you're trying to solve lifetime value for customers related to their car, you're always dealing with an edge case.

对于任何特定问题来说，这都不是一个简单的解决方案。

It's not a straightforward solution for any given problem.

你知道，这是用户将要做的最重要的购买。

You know, it's the most important purchase a user is going to do.

他们可能第一次自己贷款。

They're probably financing themselves for the first time.

这可能是他们的第一辆车，而且车迟早会出故障，还会在你最不希望它出故障的地方出问题。

It's probably their first car and their car is going to break down at some point, and it's going to break down in places where you don't want it to break down.

所以你总是要应对各种不同的情况。

So you're always dealing with different situations.

你知道，我们是处理边缘案例的专家。

You know, we're the master of edge cases.

当你面对一个边缘案例时，公司需要提供大量信息和沟通，才能以让用户满意的方式解决问题。

And when you're dealing with an edge case, what happens is that it requires a lot of information and communication from the company to be able to solve that in a way that the user is satisfied.

我在2017年注意到，我们公司内部的信息传递通道在我们规模很小的时候非常有效，因为当时大家都在同一个房间里，一旦发生这种情况，我们就能迅速做出决策。

And what I started to see in 2017 in our company was that that highway of information, it worked really well when we were really small, because we were all in a room when something like this happened and we can make decisions really quickly.

我们当时掌握了所有信息，因此能够打造出绝佳的体验。

We had all of the information and we were able to develop an amazing experience.

但当时我清楚地意识到，如果我们扩张，成为一家每年处理数十万、甚至数百万笔交易的公司，这种情况就不再成立了。

But what was really clear to me at that point in time that if we scaled and if we became, you know, a company that's doing hundreds of thousands of transactions every year, millions of transactions every year, that was not going to be true anymore.

就在那时，我发出了那份备忘录和沟通内容，本质上是在预见未来——我们即将面对的，是如何在规模化的情况下解决这些问题。

And that's the moment where we sort of like, when I sent out that memo and that communication was just projecting ourselves into the future, that this was what we were going to be, you know, trying to solve at scale.

因此，对我来说，关键是从第一天起，就为我们所有不同的业务或业务线建立正确的本体结构，以便它们能够相互沟通。

So for me, it was all about building from day one, the right ontology around all of our different businesses or business lines for them to be able to communicate together.

你今天也能看到这一点，对吧？

And you see it today, right?

当你扩展业务时，问题是什么？那就是你到处都有很多人，对吧？

Like when you scale a business, what's the issue when you scale a business is you have many people everywhere, right?

他们无法再像以前那样进行沟通。

And they cannot communicate in the way that they communicated before.

如果你在开票团队，需要为顾客开具一辆车的发票，而对发票中的汽车零部件部分有疑问，你却不知道该找谁。

So if you're in the invoicing team and you need to invoice a car for a customer, and you have a doubt with the auto parts piece of the invoice, you have no way to know who to call.

如果你对汽车的价格有疑问，你也不知道该找谁。

If you have a doubt with the price of the car, you have no way to know who to call.

当时我们面临的挑战是，我们该如何构建这条信息高速公路，让我们能够与所有人沟通？

And that was a challenge that was seeing at that time, you know, was like, how are we going to create this highway of information where we can sort of like talk to everybody?

我想起上周刚看了几集一个节目，或许能帮助我说明这一点，这个节目叫《一个叫普卢塔布尔斯的苹果》。

And I think that there's a show that I just watched a couple of episodes last week that can help me land this, but it's a show called An Apple called Plutables.

这个节目讲述了一种病毒袭击人类，而这种病毒的作用是让我们所有人连接成群体思维。

This show about a virus hits humanity and what the virus does is that it connects us all in hive thinking.

你拥有的所有知识，我都有，加布里埃尔拥有的所有知识，我也有，所以每个人某种程度上都是彼此。

Have all the knowledge that you have, I have all the knowledge that Gabriel has, so everybody is sort of everybody.

他们能实时连接全人类的所有信息，并直接输出结果、沟通或创新。

And in real time, they can connect all of the information of humanity and just deliver an output or a communication or an innovation.

对吧？

Right?

人工智能很大程度上就是关于这个的。

And AI is a lot about that.

对吧？

Right?

而经营一家企业，关键在于企业内部能否高效沟通，以解决特定问题。

And building a business is around like, the best businesses will communicate really well within their organizations to solve a determined issue.

这可能是运营问题，也可能是创新问题，但只要你能让沟通顺畅，你所能实现的创新速度和服务水平将大幅提升。

It could be an operational issue, it could be an innovation issue, but if you manage to get that communication flowing, the velocity that you can innovate, the level of service that you can deliver was huge.

我们每天都亲身感受到这一点。

And we saw that because it was hitting us in the face every day.

我不认为有几家公司需要应对如此多的边缘情况。

I don't think there's many companies out there that have to manage so many edge cases.

所以，我不会给自己太多功劳。

So I wouldn't give myself too much credit.

这只不过是每天直面这个问题而已。

It was just about facing that problem on a daily business.

然后我们不断推进，构建本体，因为我知道，唯一能让我们渡过难关的，就是数据部分，以及我们如何连接所有这些业务。

And then just pushing, you know, towards building the ontology, because the only thing that I knew that was going to get us on the other side was the data piece of it and how we connected all of this business.

这就是为什么，谈到我的生意时，我只能通过不断试错来学习。

That's where, when you think about my business particularly, I only learn through trial and error.

这就是我的学习方式。

That's my way of learning.

每个人都有自己的学习方式。

And everybody has their different ways of learning.

我认为，你每天必须做出许多糟糕的微决策，然后坚持下去，观察结果，这样才能通过这些决策的复利效应获得出色的宏观成果。

And I think that you need to make a lot of bad micro decisions every day and show up to see what happened to have a great macro outcome after compounding sort of like these decisions.

在魁北克，我们有四个关键领域，决定着企业每天是成功还是失败，取决于我们做得好还是坏。

And in Quebec, we have what we call the four places where a business will succeed and fail every day, if we do it well or we do it bad.

其中一个领域是定价。

One place is pricing.

如果我买一辆车，买的价格不对，或者买错了车型，我就会亏钱。

If I buy a car, and I buy it at the wrong price, or I buy the wrong car, I'm going to lose money.

这是事实。

That's a fact.

所以我们知道这一点。

So we knew that.

我们知道，为了做好定价，我们必须每天在每一辆购买的车上学习，以确保下一辆车能买得更好。

We knew that in order for us to do pricing well, we needed to be able to learn every day in each car that we bought, to make sure that we bought the car, the next car better.

你需要在给定时间内，为六万个具有独特特征的SKU定价，同时还要应对周围的宏观环境变化。

And you have 60,000 unique SKUs with unique features that you need to price in a given time with a macro happening around you.

因此，我们知道在定价方面，我们需要引入人工智能和数据。

So we knew that we needed to put AI and data in terms of how we thought about pricing.

而且我们知道，这必须每天进行。

And we knew that we needed to do that on a daily basis.

人类无法规模化这种决策。

Humans cannot scale that decision.

我们

We

我们也知道，汽车会失败。

also knew that cars will fail.

那时候我对汽车一无所知。

And I didn't know anything about cars back then.

因此，我了解汽车的唯一方式，不是通过检查、翻新和销售它们。

So the only way for me to learn about cars was not about how I inspected them and then sold them, reconditioned and sold them.

你了解一辆车的唯一机会，就是它出故障的时候。

The only place where you can learn about a car was when it failed.

但在当时，这并不受欢迎，因为大家都上着大学，会说：‘你为什么要承担保修责任？’

And this was something that was not popular back in the day, because everybody was in the college, well, why are you going to own the warranty?

这毫无意义。

There's no sense in it.

一方面，我们所服务的市场缺乏将保修责任外包的基础设施，因此我们必须自己承担，才能解决问题。

And on one end, there wasn't an infrastructure in the markets that we serve to delegate it, so we needed to own it just to be able to solve the problem.

但最重要的是，通过承担保修责任，你就能在故障发生的那一刻获得数据。

But the most important thing is that by owning the warranty, you own the data at moment of failure.

我们构建的所有系统，都是基于这些故障进行学习，每天都在改进检查、翻新和售后维护的流程，通过不断学习这个过程。

And we built all of our systems, just learning from that failure, and every day just making the inspection, the reconditioning, and servicing the post sale of it better, just by sort of like learning that process.

这是一个每天都要面对的决定，你需要用数据来取代它。

And that's a daily decision that you face that you needed to replace with it with data.

核保也是同样的道理。

Underwriting is the same thing.

是的。

Yeah.

这在该行业中历来非常困难。

Which is notoriously difficult in this industry.

那么，如果我们回到你的微观决策点，你们就像许多公司一样，一开始是这样的：好吧。

So then if we take to your to your micro decision point, you started, like many companies, like, alright.

我们会使用AI工具。

We will have AI tools.

我们会把这些工具交给我们的聪明员工。

We will give them to our smart employees.

这会让一切变得更加高效。

It's gonna make everything more efficient.

但正如你所提到的，这实际上并没有奏效。

But as you talk about, that actually did not work.

是的。

Yeah.

于是你们转向了更直接的思路：AI必须承担起这项工作。

And so you pivoted more towards AI is just gonna have to do this.

或许曾经尝试过两种策略，零星地测试过一些，但你们非常著名地选择了全盘投入，直接假设它会成功，然后全力以赴，使其达到人类水平，甚至超越人类水平。

And And there might have been two strategies, tested a little bit here and there, but you guys pretty famously went all in just assuming it was gonna work and then working really hard to get it up to human level and then past human level.

那么，你们究竟是如何推动整个组织朝这个方向前进的呢？

So really how did you how did you manage to move the organization in that direction?

因为这不仅仅是技术问题，正如你所指出的，还涉及人员方面的挑战。

Because it's not just technology, it's also the people challenges, as you point out.

所以在不同领域，它的效果也不尽相同，比如定价方面，效果就相当不错。

So there were there were different places where it worked more or less, you know, like pricing, it worked pretty well.

嗯。

Mhmm.

重新整备，效果非常好。

Reconditioning, it worked pretty well.

核保，效果非常好。

Underwriting, it worked pretty well.

但我们面临最大的挑战是客户互动，对吧？

But the biggest challenge that we were facing was customer interactions, right?

比如那些边缘情况。

Like those edge cases.

有趣的是，我们早在2000年就开始思考这个问题，并在2017年着手构建本体和我们的系统。

The beautiful thing that happened was, you know, we started this in 2000, thinking about this, and building the ontology, and building our of our systems together in 2017.

所以当ChatGPT问世时，我们已经准备好了。

So by the time that ChatGPT came out, you know, we were ready.

从本体论的角度来看，我们真的准备好了。

We were really ready from an ontology perspective.

我们的所有系统都已经连接起来，信息提取和构建智能代理的基础设施都已到位。

We had all our systems connect, like, it was really, we had the systems in the right place to sort of extract information, start to build agents.

我们需要决定如何用这项技术来规划我们组织的未来。

Needed to make a decision on how we viewed our organization going forward with this technology.

我们知道，我们无法继续以现有的方式扩张。

And we knew that we couldn't scale the way that we were scaling.

你知道，我们的人太多了。

You know, we had too many people.

信息流动的路径并不理想，因此我们无法为这些边缘情况提供理想的客户体验。

The highway of information of things was not optimal, so we were not delivering a great customer experience for the customer experience that we wanted to deliver on these edge cases.

我们知道，如果我们想要扩张，就必须立即改变这一点。

And we knew that if we wanted to scale, we needed to change that immediately.

于是我们开始思考如何构建架构，确保能够创建能够相互沟通的智能代理。

So we started to think about more of that architecture of how can we make sure to build agents and build them in a way that they can communicate with each other.

我们从招聘流程开始着手。

And started from the recruiting process.

每次遇到障碍或需求时，我们都会思考：这个问题能否通过有血有肉的人来解决？

Every time we had a friction or we had a need, we started to think about, can this be solved with humans that have blood?

还是说，这可以通过那些体内流淌着电流的智能体来解决？

Or can this be solved with agents that, you know, have electricity going through their veins?

我们开始慢慢思考：在哪里需要部署智能体？

And we started slowly just thinking about like, where do we need to put an agent?

在哪里需要安排人类？

Where do we need to put a human?

但我们最先构建的是那个操作系统，它让我们知道下一步该做什么。

But the first thing that we built out was that operating system that allowed us to know what to do next.

当你在构建人工智能时，首先需要构建的是系统的刹车机制，即明确你将在哪里部署它、如何部署它。

And when you're building AI, the first thing that you need to build is the brakes of the system, the understanding on where you're going to deploy it and how you're going to deploy it.

我们拥有成千上万甚至数百万条关于我们用户的信息，包括他们如何导航、如何与我们聊天、我们在哪些地方让他们失望、又在哪些地方让他们满意。

We had thousands and millions of information lines about our users, what they were navigating, how they were chatting with us, where we were failing them, where we were succeeding.

我们做的第一件事，就是构建了一个系统，使我们能够全面了解每个用户的一切。

The first thing that we did was we just built the system that allowed us to understand everything about every user.

在ChatGPT时代之前，你不可能做到这一点——你虽然拥有信息，却无法提取、自动分析并进行上下文理解。我们犯了所有人都会犯的典型错误：我们开发了这些协作者工具，交给团队使用，希望他们能借此提供更好的客户体验，或仅凭这些信息为客户提供更好的解决方案。

And that's something that you couldn't do prior to that ChatGPT era, where you had the information, but you couldn't sort of like extract and automatically And know, contextualize we made the typical mistake that everybody's making, is, we build these copilot tools to give them to our teams, so they could just use them and just provide a better customer experience, or just have the information to provide a better solution to our customers.

我们在2022年底到2023年初做了这件事，花了大量时间为我们组织中的每个人构建这些工具，并将它们交给了大家。

And we did just that, in late twenty twenty two, early twenty twenty three, we spent a lot of time building these tools for everybody in our organization, and we gave them to them.

但我们很快发现，他们并没有采用这些工具。

And we realized very quickly they didn't adopt them.

当我们看到这一点时，我们就明白，即使你拥有正确的信息，即使你为人们提供了正确的路径或数据库来查找他们需要的内容，他们也不会去使用。

And when we saw that, we knew that even if you had the right information, even if you had the correct highway or database for people to like find out what they needed, they were not going to do it.

于是我们逐个流程地，在业务的关键环节前部署了智能代理。

So we went funnel by funnel, putting agents in front of critical aspects of the business.

当时，大多数人一开始都试图解决客户服务问题。

It started by, most people attacked it back then, just trying to solve customer service.

对我们来说，问题并不是客户服务。

For us, the issue was not customer service.

对我们来说，问题在于贷款的核保。

For us, the issue was underwriting your loan.

当你的车坏了，那时我们该怎么做？

It was, if your car broke down, what do we do then and at that moment?

所以我们决定先解决最困难的问题，也就是客户遇到的那些边缘问题。

So we went and tried to solve the hardest thing first, that was those edge issues that our customers were having.

我们拥有所有用户的信息，只需要构建正确的技能来解决这些问题。

We had all of the information of our users, we just needed to build the right skill sets to solve that.

我们创建了一个流程，让智能代理与组织内的人类协同工作。

And we created this process where we built agents working symbiotically with humans in the organization.

有些事情由人类解决，有些事情由代理解决，具体取决于复杂程度。

And some things humans solve, some things agents solve, depending on complexity.

我们还引入了一个协调者，负责指导谁来处理哪个任务。

And we had an orchestrator in the mix that was sort of like guiding who was going to solve which.

我们从一个流程、一个过程开始，逐步建立技能体系，观察到代理在某些任务上表现优于人类，然后开始逐步扩大规模。

And we started very slowly with one funnel, one process, create a skill set, and we started to see how agents could perform better than humans on certain tasks, and started to scale it from then.

在过去三年里，我们一直在创建这些技能体系，赋能我们的大量AI代理，并构建了允许它们彼此通信的架构，最终为我们用户实现简单易用的体验。

And for the past three years, we've just been creating all of these skill sets that have been able to empower a lot of our AI agents and build the architecture that allows them to communicate with each other, for us ultimately be able to orchestrate something simple for our user.

但我们很快就把代理放在了用户面前。

But we put the agents in front of our users really quickly.

这非常痛苦。

It was very painful.

是的。

Yeah.

不，我认为独特之处在于，你们曾有几周甚至可能几个月的时间，各个职能团队的表现都低于人类员工。

No, that I think is what is unique is you had weeks or maybe even a couple of months where various functions were underperforming the humans.

但你们始终相信最终能达成目标，并抵制了重新雇佣更多人类员工或放弃某些任务的诱惑。

And you just had the sort of confidence that you were gonna get there and resisted the temptation to hire more humans back or give up on certain tasks.

不。

No.

我们坚持了一年。

We had a year.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我们的业务在快速增长，2022年增长了100%，而之后增长了300%。

So we were growing like, the business was growing 300%, like 2022 was growing 100%.

2023年，我们的增长停滞了。

And 2023, we were flat.

明白吗？

Know?

造成这种情况的原因是我们正在全面重组线下的所有环节。

So the reason behind that was we were just restructuring everything below the line.

当你开始部署这些系统时，通常会发生的情况是，客户体验一开始会恶化，因为你无法像人类那样提供同等水平的服务。

And when you start to put these systems in, what typically happens is, is your customer experience starts to deteriorate at the beginning, because you're not delivering at the same level that a human could deliver.

你的销售额在下降，因为我们不再做客户服务，而是专注于销售、采购和融资。

Your sales is dropping because we're not doing customer service, we're doing sales, we're doing purchases, we're doing financing.

所以，你看到所有的产出关键绩效指标都在下滑。

So you've seen all your output KPIs just deteriorate.

我认为，当时我们所具备的韧性是，对于某个特定流程——不是整个公司——我们没有备选方案。

I think that the resilience that we had at that moment was, you know, we didn't have, for a certain funnel, not for the whole company, we didn't have a plan B.

我们的唯一计划就是必须让这个方案成功。

The plan A was we need to make this work.

我们让工程师、团队和所有人确保这些代理至少能达到我们之前的表现水平。

And we got our engineers, our teams, and everybody just making sure that these agents could perform at least parity to what we were performing before.

在某个流程中，你会看到业绩下滑，直到不再下滑，然后开始回升。

And it was in a certain funnel, you see a drop up until it doesn't, and then you start to, it starts to go back up.

在第一个流程中，我们达到了一个水平，比我们最好的人类员工在某个环节的表现还要高出1.5倍。

And we got to a place in the first funnel that, you know, we were like, like 1.5 times better than our best human in a certain place.

到了这个时候，我们决定不再专注于把性能提升七倍，因为模型自己会达到那个水平。

And at that point we said, okay, let's not focus on making it seven times better because the models will get there.

我们公司有一个很棒的理念：我们不是为ChatGPT四代而构建，而是为ChatGPT七代而构建。

And we have an amazing philosophy in the company that is we don't build for ChadGPT four, we build for ChatGPT seven.

对吧？

Right?

或者我们清楚，模型的进步速度会快过我们自身的迭代速度。

Or we build we we know that the models are gonna are gonna move faster than what we can move.

所以我们努力提前预判需要完成的工作。

So we try to, like, anticipate what needs to be done.

所以，当这项技术成熟时，我们的基础设施和架构实际上就能充分利用它。

So, like, when that when that technology is there, our infrastructure and our architecture sort of, can can can actually can take advantage of it.

我们开始着手提升与客户互动的市场份额。

And we started to work on market share of this interaction with our customers.

当我们看到某个流程的性能达到或略优于人类水平时，我们就转向下一个障碍，如此循环。

So we went when we saw a funnel like delivering parity or a little bit better than parity than human, we went to the next friction, so on and so forth.

这种模式始终如一。

And it was always the same pattern.

它在回升之前总会先下降。

It goes down before it goes back up.

我们逐渐对这一策略越来越有信心。

And we slowly started to sort of become more confident about that strategy.

直到某个时刻，我们决定：好吧，我们必须破釜沉舟，把这一做法推广到整个组织。

And up until a point where we decided, well, you know what, we need to burn all the ships and just do this for the whole organization.

对吧？

Right?

这是不同的。

Which is different.

现在，我们通过AI代理管理了与用户互动的90%到95%。

Know, we, today we manage like 90, 95% of every human, interaction with our users with an AI agent in the middle.

但对我们所有的后端系统来说，这还不是现实，对吧？

But that's not a reality for all of our backend, right?

定价、开票，所有这些环节，我们已经引入了机器学习，现在正构建代理来管理这些系统，让它们也能与其他所有代理进行对话。

Pricing, invoicing, all of these things, we have ML, you know, we have all of these systems now we're building sort of like the agents to manage these systems so they can also converse with all of our other agents.

你只需要有耐心，但这花了一年时间，期间毫无进展，压力巨大，你知道的？

It's just, you just have to have the patience of it, but it took us, you know, like it was a year of flat, a lot of pressure, you know?

你们是如何在这么长的时间里，应对组织内部的文化压力的？

How did you manage, I guess, that pressure with the culture within the organization for such a long period of time?

这最终取决于我们对几年后世界面貌的信念。

It comes ultimately to what we believe the world is going to look like in a few years.

我们认为，这是人类历史上最大的技术变革。

You know, we think that this is the biggest technological shift that's ever happened to humanity.

作为这个时代和我们公司的领导者，我们的责任是确保我们不仅站在这场变革的另一边，而且能够蓬勃发展。

And our responsibility as leaders in this time and for our company is to make sure that we're not only on the other side of the shift, but we're thriving.

我经常回想起奈飞公司。

And I like to go back a lot to like Netflix.

我喜欢奈飞，因为它们最初是一家录像带公司。

Like, love Netflix because they started out as a videotape company.

对吧？

Right?

然后它们转向了流媒体服务。

And and and then they went to streaming.

让我们来深入分析一下。

Well, let's let's unpack that.

你有百视达，而这些人进行了创新，他们将录像带送到你家门口，因此片源选择不再是问题。

You have Blockbuster, then these guys innovated, and you had videotapes delivered to your house, so assortment wasn't an issue anymore.

然后就有了流媒体服务。

And then you had streaming.

我看待Kavak的方式是，传统企业或Blockbuster就像把录像带寄给用户，这大概就是传统的软件模式，以及在线销售、在线承保等一切。

The way that I like to think about Kavak is that incumbents or Blockbuster, Kavak was videotapes sending to your user, and that's probably traditional software, and selling online and underwriting online and everything.

而转向人工智能，就像那次向流媒体的过渡。

And then, you know, moving to AI is like, sort of like that streaming transition.

当你进行这种转型时，必须确保每个人都明白：我们要么转向流媒体，要么就灭亡。

And, you know, when you're doing a transition of the shift, you need to make sure that everybody understands that we're going to go streaming or die.

对吧？

Right?

我们当时有利的一点是，我们的市场崩溃了。

And one of the things that we had going for ourselves is that our market imploded.

我不知道你是否还记得2020年2月汽车市场发生了什么。

I don't know if you remember what happened to the auto car, the auto space market in 02/2020

是的

was

下跌了99.9%。

down 99.9.

很多企业都倒闭了。

A lot of business went under.

所以，无论我做什么或说什么，都无法让人感到安心。

So it was literally nothing I can do or say to anybody that made them feel comfortable.

对。

Right.

你知道，当你的行业下跌了99.9%时，每个人都会感到不安。

You know, like when your, when your industry is down 99.9%, you could like, everybody's gonna be uncomfortable.

所以，也许你可以谈谈你当时的处境，我记得那时魁北克有上万名员工。

So maybe said that backdrop of where you were, like Quebec, I think at that time had 10,000 employees.

是的。

Yeah.

那是2021年、2022年，对吧？

Like it was the 2021, '22, right?

那时是一个非常繁荣的时期。

Every it was a very high flying time.

所以有一万名员工，你们每天烧掉一百万美元，而市场却崩盘了。

So 10,000 employees, like you were burning a million a day, market implodes.

我们

We're

我们在构建这样的系统，同时快速扩张。

building this like, were scaling.

我们正在建设大量基础设施以支持扩张。

We were building the infrastructure, a lot of infrastructure to scale.

我们当时拥有的基础设施远远超过将规模扩大四倍所需，从一百人迅速增长到一万人，仅用了二十四个月的时间。

We had more than enough infrastructure to grow four times where we were at that point in time, growing really quickly from going to 100 people to 10,000 people, like in twenty four months timeframe.

哇。

Wow.

业务在同样的速度下从零增长到数十亿美元的收入，背后还伴随着交付收入的极高复杂性。

The business went from 0 to billions in revenue at that same speed with, with a lot of complexity behind how you deliver that revenue.

对吧？

Right?

你知道，你是在运车。

You know, you're, you're, you're moving cars.

所以我们当时一切准备就绪，随时可以快速推进。

So we had everything, you know, just ready to go really quick.

突然间市场崩盘了，你得改变策略，你知道的，你也不确定。

And all of a sudden market's employed and you have to change your strategy, you know, you don't know.

尤其是如果你在拉美地区建设业务，你知道，资本是会流入拉美的。

And more so if you're building in LATAM, you know, like capital comes in in LATAM.

但资本从未像2021年那样迅速涌入。

Well, it never came in at the speed that it came in in 2021.

它也没有那么快离开。

And it never left so fast as well.

所以你必须重新思考你的整个战略，对吧？

So you have to just rethink your whole strategy, right?

就像你说的，资本不会永远在这里。

It's like, you know, capital is not gonna be here forever.

我们只需要确保完成这个转变。

And we just need to make sure that we make the shift.

但当你进行这种转变时，要记住，这就像你全速前进时，就像飞机起飞一样，对吧？

But when you're making that shift, remember that it's like, you know, you're at full speed going ahead and say, it's like taking off on a plane, right?

这时候减速是最糟糕的选择。

Like that's the worst time to slow down.

你需要先让自己升到一万英尺的高空，然后再做出理智的决策。

You need to get yourself to like 10,000 feet up in the air before you start to make sane decisions.

在我们经历这个起飞过程时，我们需要放慢脚步。

And we needed to slow down while we were sort of like going through that takeoff process.

你当时面临这么多问题，比如，我该不该全力推动增长？

You were facing so many things, you know, like, should I just push for for growth?

我该不该放慢脚步，争取一些时间？

Should I slow down and just buy time?

我们陷入了一个非常棘手的境地，因为我们无法简单地缩减规模来实现盈利。

We were in a in a in a really interesting pickle because we couldn't just shrink to profitability.

我们需要在变得更为精简和高效的同时实现增长。

We needed to grow While becoming more lean and efficient at the same time.

从那时起，公司实现了四倍的增长，达到了那个时间节点的规模，并且在那段时间里，从大量烧钱转变为盈利。

And the company from there, you know, we went on to grow four times to where we were at that place in time, and we went on from burning a lot of money to become profitable in that frame of time.

但当时一切都变得异常紧张。

But it was everything was very heightened.

当你的市场下滑时，根本无从决策。

And when your market down, there's no decisions.

当你的市场下跌了99.9%时，任何决策都无法让人感到安心。

When your market goes down 99.9%, there's no decision that's making anybody comfortable.

对吧？

Right?

因为对我们来说，我们知道我们拥有某种特别的东西。

Because for us, we knew that we had something special.

我们不仅仅是在打造一个人们想要的企业，而是在打造一个人们真正需要的企业。

You know, we were not just building a business that people wanted, we were building a business that people needed.

让我们更自豪的指标是，有40%的客户是人生中第一次购买汽车。

The metric that makes us more proud is that 40% of our customers are buying their car for the first time in their life.

是的。

Yeah.

这是因为这太惊人了。

This is because That's incredible.

我们知道我们拥有某种特别的东西，同时我们还在这个过程中构建了这些AI能力，我们也认为它们非常特别，尤其是作为运营者，我们看到了它的可扩展性——在经历持续不断的增长阶段时，我们深知另一端的流程可能会更容易。

We knew that we had something special, and we were also building these AI capabilities in the midst of it that we also saw as very special, and especially as operators, the scalability of it, the thing that we were suffering through the growth phase that's never ended, we knew that it could probably be easier in the other side.

所以我会说，当你面对如此高强度的全方位压力时，期望值突然就降低了。

So I would say, like, when you have everything coming at you with that level of intensity, expectations all of a sudden lowered.

对吧？

Right?

因为无论我做什么，都无法让每个人感到安心。

Because there was nothing that I could actually do that would make everybody comfortable.

除了实现盈利并挺过去之外，别无他法。

More than just get profitable and go through it.

我们确实朝着这个目标努力，但最重要的目标不仅仅是实现盈利，而是在未来实现显著盈利，并为我们的用户创造更大的价值。

We were definitely working towards that objective, but the most important objective was not just getting profitable, it was getting significantly profitable on the other side and being able to deliver more impact for our users.

所以我们有机会在那个时候下注——而你们下了一个大注。

So we had that opportunity to, you know, make bets when- And you made a big one.

我们也下了一个大注。

And we made a big one.

我们持续在下注，对吧？

We made a, we continued to make it, right?

但我们很清楚，我们需要完成这场转型，转向流式运营。

But we definitely knew that we needed to become, do this transition where we were streaming.

我相信，任何公司、任何现任CEO，如果现在不以这种方式思考，

And I believe that anybody, any company right now, any CEO right now, if you're not thinking about it in that way, they're

就会

going to

面临一场缓慢而痛苦的死亡。

be up for a world of slow death and pain.

所以我们被迫进行了这一转变。

So we were forced into that transition.

我们还收到了来自世界各地的许多创始人收听这个播客。

We also have a lot of founders from all around the world that listen to this podcast.

我想知道，你对那些在新兴市场（比如拉丁美洲）创业的创始人有什么建议？他们该如何思考现在如何建立企业？

Curious if you have any advice that you can share with these founders that are building in emerging markets, let's say Latin America, and how to think about building a business now.

我认为，很多创始人一开始只是想成为创始人，建立一家公司。

I think first you a lot of founders, they go out there and they just want to be founders and build a business.

我认为这种想法是错误的。

I think that's the wrong take.

你只需要找到一个需要解决的问题，并且在早期阶段尽可能与之产生共鸣，而且是你真正关心的问题。

I think you just need to find a problem that needs to be solved, and that you can probably at the early stages of it relate to it as much as possible, and that you care about.

如果你发现了一个需要解决的问题，那问题不在拉丁美洲，而是那些只是让事情变得更好的事情。

And if you find a problem that needs to be solved, not in LatAm, it's not about things that just make it better.

你知道，你在那里面对的大多数人都在挣扎。

You know, you're there dealing with the most of your population is going to be struggling.

他们正承受着痛苦，你知道，他们需要养活家人，基本需求都得不到满足。

And they're suffering against, you know, they need to feed the table, they need basic needs are not covered.

所以如果你在拉美创业，你必须思考如何打造人们真正需要的产品，而不是他们最初想要的东西。

So if you're building in LATAM, you have to think about, you know, building products that people actually need, not that people initially want.

如果你发现了一个问题，你必须全力以赴，确保你解决的是真正有影响力的问题。

And if you find a problem, you know, you have to go all in and make sure that you're solving for something that has real impact.

我认为，只要你找到对的事情，这份使命感就能让你度过高峰与低谷。

I think the purpose behind it will get you through the highs and the lows, if you find the right thing.

我还觉得，作为拉美创业者，你必须对地域保持开放心态，对吧？

And I also think as a Latam founder, you have to be also agnostic of region, right?

如果你看到在美国能解决的问题，而且你对此充满热情，那就直接去那里做吧，对吧？

You know, if you see something that can be solved in The US that you're excited about, know, just go there, right?

在拉丁美洲，没人告诉你，你可以有远大的志向。

One of the things that in Latin America is that nobody tells you that you can think big.

没有人会这样培养你，你知道，当你和这里的创业者、这里的风投交谈时，你会发现他们的抱负水平——尤其是在硅谷，志存高远才是常态。

No, nobody's, no, no, you're not brought up sort of like in that way that you find, you know, when you talk to founders here and when you talk to VCs here, you know, the level of ambition, and especially in Silicon Valley, you know, thinking big is the norm.

我认为创始人需要明白，他们可以有远大的目标，但也必须认识到，他们需要解决真实的问题，对吧？

I think that's what I think founders need to understand that they can think big, but they also need to understand that they need to solve something real, right?

因为这需要很多年。

Because it's going to take years.

如果你看看那些最优秀的企业，它们97%的价值都是在第十五年之后创造出来的，从第一年到第十五年。

Like if you see the best companies out there, 97% of their value gets created after year fifteen, to year one five.

97%的价值。

97% of their value.

我与许多建立了这种代际级十亿美元级公司的创始人交谈并倾听过他们的故事。

I've talked and listened to a lot of these founders that have built this generational multi billion dollar companies.

当我跳出细节、纵观这些公司时，我得到的洞察是：当你问他们，‘你们怎么能在第二十年还保持30%的增长？’

The insight that I get from zooming out and looking at these companies is that when you ask them, like, how can you be at year twenty, still be growing 30%?

是什么让这一切发生的？

What happened to make that happen?

我从他们的反馈和经验中学到的是，卡洛斯，这关乎每天、每周为用户消除痛点，让你的业务每天进步1%。

And like most of the feedback or the learnings that I got is that, Carlos, this is about taking frictions away from our users every single day, every week, making your business 1% better.

让你的业务提升1%，就是消除用户的某个痛点，让他们的体验改善1%

And making your business 1% better is, means taking a friction away from your user and making their friction 1% better.

而这种改善会随着时间积累放大

And that compounds over time.

如果你坚持这样做，专注于用户真正重视的事情，你最终一定能找到方向

And if you do that and you focus on that relentlessly, and what you're doing, users really value, you're going to figure it out.

对吧？

Right?

我的工作就是洗车

My job is cleaning cars.

对吧？

Right?

最终，我们都在开发AI，构建各种技术，但归根结底，就是要交付一辆干净的车

At the end of it, we're building all of these AI, we're building all of this, but at the end of the day is delivering a car that's clean.

所以即使在最糟糕的一天，我只要去洗一辆车，就能感到心满意足

So even on the worst day, I could just go and wash a car and feel good about myself.

对吧？

Right?

所以关键是找到这些摩擦点并将其消除。

So it's making sure that you find that friction and you take it away.

优秀的人清洗汽车，卓越的人则构建系统，能够为数百万用户实现规模化服务。

Like great people clean the car, amazing people build systems that can do this scalable for millions of people.

对吧？

Right?

所以我会说，正是这种认知帮助我度过许多难关——我们已经走到了第九年。

So I would say that gets me through a lot of it, just understanding that we're at year nine.

因此，我们的价值尚未真正创造出来，我们只需要不断消除摩擦。

So none of our value has been created yet, and we just need to take frictions away.

当你这样做时，规模化就会变得更容易。

And when you do that, scaling is easier.

要知道，四年前，我们的业务中还没有金融科技。

Know, four years ago, we didn't have fintech on in our business.

我们做我们这一行非常困难，因为很多人需要融资，而我们无法掌控这一部分业务。

It was very hard to do what we do because a lot of people needed financing, and we couldn't control that piece of the business.

现在我们可以了。

Now we do.

业务发展得很好，我们帮助了大量用户。

And it's thriving, and we're helping a lot of users out.

事实上，我今天做出一个决定时，必须考虑到我将在24小时后回来重新评估这个决定。

And the reality is, I make a decision today, and I need to factor the fact that I will show up in twenty four hours to reassess that decision.

有时候你做出一个决定，就让它自行运行十五天。

Sometimes you make a decision and you let it out there roll for fifteen days.

我知道当我这么做时，这是错误的。

And I know when I do that, it's wrong.

要知道，如果我做了决定，第二天就必须打电话问：进展如何？

Know, if I make a decision, need to get on a call the next day and say, how is this going?

然后重新评估。

And reassess.

你必须能够接受自己会犯错。

And you have to be comfortable with being wrong.

所以我认为享受其中的微观细节非常重要。

So I think enjoying the micro of it is very important.

要把问题当作能量棒一样对待。

And treat problems as a protein bar.

对吧？

Right?

我们的工作本质上就是解决问题。

Like our job is literally to solve problems.

如果你对解决问题不感兴趣，对应对复杂性不兴奋，那这就

If you're not excited about solving a problem, if you're not excited about hitting complexity- That's

这个比喻太棒了。

a great analogy.

如果你

If you're

如果不享受做这件事，那你到底在做什么呢？

not excited about doing that, what are you doing then?

每当你解决一个问题，你就会成功，建立起这些屏障和防御机制。

Like every time you solve a problem, you make it, you build these barriers, this defense.

所以你需要享受它。

So you need to enjoy it.

这就是工作。

That's the job.

看看我的故事。

Look at my story.

你知道，我来自委内瑞拉的塔拉克，我就像系统中的一个漏洞。

You know, I come from Tarac, from Venezuela, like I'm a glitch in the system.

我不该站在这里，跟你们谈论如何打造这家企业。

Like, I'm not supposed to be here talking to you guys about building this business.

我非常幸运能拥有这个机会，你每一天都必须意识到这一点。

I'm so fortunate about having this opportunity, and you need to acknowledge that every single day, you know.

稍微宏观一点看，我认为我们之前聊天时你提到的一点很独特，那就是你每年都会进行一次自我反思，本质上是在问自己：我是否仍然是公司这一阶段的合适CEO？

A little on the zoom out, I think one of the things you shared when we were talking before that's unique about you is this annual process that you go through of self introspection, which essentially is you ask, am I still the right CEO for this phase of the company?

是的，我刚完成这个过程。

Yeah, I just went through that.

对。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

你能谈谈这个反思过程吗？

Do want you to talk a little bit about that exercise?

当然。

Yep.

你必须平衡好自己作为创始人、利益相关者和运营者的角色。

So you have to balance your role as a founder, stakeholder, and as an operator.

对吧？

Right?

我们会这样做，我自己也会做。

And we do this, I do it myself.

我们也会让管理团队和团队成员这样做。

We do it with our management team and team members.

每年左右，我都会解雇自己。

Every year or so, I fire myself.

你知道，这个过程非常痛苦。

You know, and I go through this exercise that is really painful.

要知道，解雇自己真的很痛苦。

Know, firing yourself, it's really painful.

因为如果你的事业做得好，它的发展速度会远远超过你个人的成长速度。

Because your business, if you do well, is going to grow faster than you can ever grow as a human.

所以我经历的这个过程，有时每三个月一次，有时每两年一次，但我确实经常经历。

So the process that I go through is every certain sometimes it happens every three months, sometimes it happens every couple of years, but I definitely go through it a lot.

我只是解雇自己，然后思考：如果你要雇一个CEO来实现你所描绘的愿景，你会希望他具备哪些能力？

I just fire myself and lay out, you know, if you're gonna hire a CEO to build that vision that you laid out, what would you hire for?

比如，你会让他或她做哪些相关的事情？

Like, what would you ask him or her to do that's relevant?

你知道他们需要承担哪些风险？

What are the risks that you know that they need to be taking?

你知道他们需要保护和积累哪些方面？

What are the things that you know that they need to protect and compound?

你会怎样描述这份工作？

What would you lay out like the job?

你会如何指导他们完成接下来一年的工作，以确保他们成功？

And how would you guide them through the next year of their role to make sure that they're successful?

我花了几个星期的时间专门思考这个问题。

And I spent a couple of weeks just thinking about that.

然后我会进入下一步，这很难，因为你必须把所有情绪和一切因素都控制住，对吧？

And then I go through the next, and this is hard because puts all of your, you have to put everything, all of your emotions and everything in check, right?

作为创始人，你总是会做一些你不该做的事情。

Like you're always, as a founder, you're sometimes doing things that you shouldn't be doing.

你同时试图做太多事情，而不是有条不紊地推进。

You're trying to do too many things at once instead of sequencing things.

你变得不耐烦。

You get impatient.

作为创始人和管理者，你会经历这么多事情，而这时候，我可以抽身出来，冷静地再仔细想想？

Like you have all of these things that as a founder and operator you go through, and this is a time where you can, I take a time to like take a step back and make sure that I think about it a little bit more coldly?

多倾听我所有利益相关者、用户、员工、家人以及外界的各种声音。

Listen more to like all of the inner voices of my stakeholders, my users, my employees, my family, and like all of the things that are out there.

我首先弄清楚了这一点。

And I figured that out first.

然后我问自己：我能不能重新雇用自己来完成这件事？

Then I asked myself, can I hire myself back to do that?

重新雇用自己来做这件事的好处之一是，我几乎肯定会比任何人都更在乎这件事。

And the pros of hiring myself back to do that is one, there's a huge probability that I'm going to care more than anybody else about it.

而在乎，是很重要的。

And caring is important.

第二，你拥有别人无法具备的模式识别能力，因为你从零开始构建了它。

Two, you have a pattern recognition that nobody else is going to have, because you build it from scratch.

所以，你很可能能够察觉到某些问题，并比你雇佣的任何人更快地解决它们。

So, like, you can probably, like, see certain things and solve them quicker than than than anybody that you're gonna bring in.

但最重要的是，你必须问自己：为了实现你希望这位首席运营官达成的目标，你必须放弃什么？

But the most important thing is you're gonna have to ask yourself, okay, in order to deliver what you want that CO to deliver, what do you have to let go of?

因此，你需要经历一个放弃某些计划、放弃某些自我部分、放弃某些信念的过程，因为要建立企业，你必须成为一个角色。

So you go through that process of letting go of certain initiatives, of letting go of certain pieces of yourself, know, certain belief, because in order to build businesses, have to become a persona.

你总是这样，总是那样，就像那些总是入戏的演员，比如杰瑞德·莱托。

You're like this, you're always like that, you know, these actors that are always in like Jared Leto, you know, that they're always in character.

你必须进入一个角色，因为在这个时刻，你需要脱离那个角色，意识到这个新阶段需要什么样的新身份。

You sort of have to get into a character because when you're doing this, this moment in time, have to get away from that character and realize what's the new persona that is needed for this new face.

他们会舍弃很多让你成为你的东西，同时建立新的东西，培养新的技能，形成新的思维方式。

And they go off a lot of the things that make you, and build new things, build new skill sets, build, build new ways of thinking.

所以我经常经历这个过程。

So I go through that process a lot.

到目前为止，我一直雇自己来完成这项工作，我真的想一辈子都做这个，你知道，但这并不意味着我不必经历这个过程。

So far I've been hiring myself back to do it, I really want to do this for the rest of my life, you know, like, but it doesn't mean that I don't have to go through that process.

这也不意味着，你知道，最合适的人必须亲自上场操作。

And it doesn't mean that, you know, the best person needs to be on the field operating.

这是我建议人们去做的事情。

That's something that I would recommend people to do.

你会在这个过程中成长、改变，但最终，你始终是那个你——那个孩子，或者那个特定阶段的创始人，它一直都在。

And you'll mature through that process, you'll change through that process, but ultimately, you're always that person that you are, you know, that kid, or that founder for that certain stage, it's always there.

而你始终会拥有这种直觉。

And you're always going to have that as your instant.

直觉在决策中非常重要。

An instant is really important in decision making.

但现在，这种直觉会受到一个框架的引导，这个框架告诉你：在这个阶段，公司需要你做什么，你的员工需要你做什么，你的家人需要你做什么，你的利益相关者需要你做什么。

But now it's guided towards a framework of what the company needs from you in this stage, what your employees needs from you, what your family needs from you, what your stakeholders needs from you.

毫无疑问，如果你去问我的员工、我的家人、我的利益相关者，他们每年想要的都是一个不同的卡洛斯。

For certain, if you talk to my employees, my family, my stakeholders, they definitely want a different Carlos every year.

对吧？

Right?

他们既怀念过去的卡洛斯，也害怕过去的卡洛斯。

And they're excited about past Carlos, afraid of past Carlos as well.

我的任务是确保自己处于一个能够持续为所有人交付一家卓越公司的位置。

My job is to make sure that I get myself in a position where I can continue deliver, you know, an amazing company for all of us.

谢谢。

Well, thank you.

我觉得这真是个很好的总结。

I think that's actually a great note.

我们期待2025年的卡洛斯，也期待2026年的卡洛斯。

We love 2025, Carlos, are excited to see 2026, Carlos.

感谢你加入我们。

Thank you for joining us.

谢谢你，卡洛斯。

Thank you, Carlos.

感谢您收听这期的a16z播客。

Thanks for listening to this episode of the a 16 z podcast.

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If you like this episode, be sure to like, comment, subscribe, leave us a rating or a review, and share it with your friends and family.

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For more episodes, go to YouTube, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify.

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Follow us on x at a sixteen z, and subscribe to our Substack at a16z.substack.com.

再次感谢您的收听，我们下期节目再见。

Thanks again for listening, and I'll see you in the next episode.

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