在Palantir内部：与Shyam Sankar共同打造有意义的软件

最大的意外是什么？

What's been the biggest surprise?

我的意思是，你显然已经和这个部门合作多年了，但现在身在其中，有什么让你感到惊讶的吗？

Like, I mean, you've obviously worked with the department for for years, but being on the inside now, what surprised you?

我的关注点主要集中在两件事上。

In my so my my focus is really two things.

我正在帮助他们思考如何在长期内规划部队结构。

I'm I'm helping them think through how to plan force structure over long periods of time.

那么，我该如何为各种不同的军事职业专业组建所需的部队？

So how do I generate the force I want for all the different military occupation specialties?

这是一方面。

So that's been one.

但另一方面，我在思考我们该如何将软件视为一种可塑的武器系统，让指挥官能够运用它来推动进展？

But the second part of it is thinking through how do we wanna employ software as almost like a malleable weapon system, as something that our commanders can wield to drive advancement?

他们把这些称为作战数据团队。

And they they call these the operational data teams.

让我印象最深刻的是我们这些非专业背景人员的才华。

What's been hugely impressive to me is the quality of talent in our green suitors.

这些人并没有接受过正式的计算机科学训练，只是自学了这些技能。

People who are not formally trained computer scientists, people who have just learned these things.

我在商业领域，或者说私营部门或公共部门看到的最令人信服的AI应用，都是由这些非专业背景人员构建的。

The most compelling AI applications I'm seeing across commercial or, you know, so private sector or public sector are being built by these green suitors.

而且我认为，这背后有一种关乎生死存亡的紧迫感。

And it's and I think there's something about the existential stakes.

你知道，你做这件事不是为了好玩。

You know, you're not doing this for fun.

你做这件事也不是为了提升10%的效率。

You're not doing this for 10% efficiency.

这是一场非赢即输的较量。

It's a binary outcome, win or lose.

我认为，AI在这个时代另一个特别有趣的地方是，它极大地赋能了拥有特定技能的人。

Other thing about this moment that I think is really interesting with AI is it's massively empowering to people with specific skills.

所以，你知道，真正了解自己领域的，是情报部门的军士。

So, you know, it is the intel warrant officer who really knows their domain.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我在想，作为一个已经做了二十年这一行的人，这个人在十年前在哪里呢？

And I was wondering, you know, as someone who's been doing this for twenty years, like, where was this person ten years ago?

是的。

Yeah.

我得出的结论是，他们一直都在。

And the conclusion I came to is they were always there.

但十年前，他们对自己的想法又能做些什么呢？

Ten years ago, what would they have done, though, with their idea?

做个PPT吗？

Make a PowerPoint slide?

向某个项目官僚汇报，然后被告诉他们的想法有多糟糕？

Brief some program bureaucrat who would tell them how bad their idea is?

不。

No.

因为他们没那么傻。

Because they're smarter than that.

他们不会浪费时间。

They wouldn't have wasted their time.

现在他们花两周时间，自己把它做出来。

Now they spend two weeks, they build it themselves.

嗯。

Mhmm.

现在他们基于自己做出的东西，进行实证性的讨论，探讨它如何真正推动军队前进，而每个人都乐于采纳，因为每个人都想赢。

Now they're having an empirical conversation about how what they've built actually drives the army forward, and everyone is quick to adopt it because everyone wants to win.

所以看到这一点真的非常令人兴奋。

So it's it's been really exciting to see that.

我认为另一部分是，大型机构，无论是私营部门还是其他领域，都难以实现从零到一的突破。

The other part of it, I think, is big institutions, it's conserved across private sector as well, struggle with zero to one.

每个人都想尽快实现规模化，你知道的，一旦有了某种创新，他们几乎都想立刻达到规模n。

Everyone wants to get, you know, everyone want if if you have some sort of innovation, they almost wanna rush to get to n as quickly as possible.

我该如何在整个部队中推广它？

How do I scale this across the formation?

陆军是一个非常庞大的组织。

Well, the Army is a very big place.

而深入思考从创新想法到实现规模化这一过程的路径和周期，这正是我们整个行业每天都在做的事情。

And thinking very critically about the pathing of what is the journey and cycle of getting an innovative idea to scale, that's literally what we do as an industry all day long.

对吧？

Right?

他们该如何真正吸收这些经验，而不是盲目模仿，这恰恰是我觉得私营部门，比如那些大型财富百强公司也在做的事情。

And and how how do they take imbibe those lessons rather than cargo culting their way there, which is frankly what I think the private sector, you know, large Fortune one hundreds do as well.

因此，他们在这一方面更应该向初创公司学习，而不是向那些大型财富百强公司学习。

So they they have more to learn from startups in this capacity than they do from, you know, big Fortune 100 companies.

完全正确。

Totally.

而且这一点也非常有趣，因为这是我一再听到的说法。

And and that's so interesting too about just you know, that is something I hear time and time again.

比如，如今陆军或海军中一位初级人员的技术能力，简直像是从小摆弄设备长大的。

Like, the the level of technical ability of someone very junior in the Army or the Navy today, it's like they came up tinkering.

是的，正如你所说，现在这些工具都已经有了。

And yes, as you said, like, now the tools are there.

他们可以直接动手构建东西，而你不仅在向初创公司学习，更是在向那些普通士兵学习——他们有很棒的想法，这确实如你所说，对军队而言，这正处在一个革命性的时代：他们能够从有好点子的基层人员身上学习，并且这些想法能迅速得到部署。

They can just build something where it's and you're not only learning from startups, you're literally learning from individuals who are enlisted, who have a great idea, which is it's it it does feel like, as you said, like, this is a revolutionary time for the military where they can actually learn from their, you know, junior people who who have a great idea, and that can be deployed very quickly.

这体现了美国军队自下而上创新和任务导向式指挥的优势。

Which plays to the American military strengths of bottoms up innovation, mission command type control.

这确实是我们的军队独一无二、别国无法做到的能力。

It's really something that our military can uniquely do that no one else can.

我们来谈谈SaaS的末日吧。

Let let's get into the the SaaS apocalypse.

你知道，有一种观点认为，嘿。

You know, there there's a line of thinking that says, hey.

现在切换成本已经很低了，因为AI已经出现了。

Now that the switching costs or now that AI's here, the switching costs are are very low.

你知道，现在没有代码护城河了。

There you know, there's no code moat.

也没有数据护城河。

There's there's no data moat.

没有用户界面护城河，有一批SaaS公司正被送上通往失败的传送带。

There's no UI moat, and there's a set of SaaS companies that are on the conveyor belt on the way to the guilty.

也许第一个是monday.com，也许是Atlassian，那些不是核心记录系统的公司，然后可能也轮到它们了。

And, you know, maybe it's monday.com first, and may maybe it's Atlassian, you know, companies that aren't systems of record, and then maybe it's it's coming for them too.

另一些人则说，嘿。

The other people say, hey.

你不可能用‘ vibe coding ’取代Atlassian。

You're not gonna vibe code, you know, Atlassian.

你不可能用‘ vibe coding ’取代这些拥有众多集成和分发渠道的出色产品。

You're not gonna vibe code these incredible products with all these integrations and all these distribution, etcetera.

你对SaaS末日怎么看？

What say you and the SaaS apocalypse?

你怎么理解这一点？

How do make sense of it?

我觉得这两种说法都是对的。

I think both things are true.

我给你一个不同的框架来思考这个问题，那就是软件本质上是关于Beta的，还是关于Alpha的？

So I have a I would give you a different rubric to think about it, which is what software is really fundamentally about beta, and what software is about alpha?

我认为，那些属于Beta的软件将会面临巨大困难。

And I think that the software that's about beta is going to really struggle.

这种软件让你变得和别人越来越相似。

This is software that made you more similar to everyone else.

这一直是我对软件工业复合体的批评，即软件开发者所关注的反馈循环是：我能卖出去吗？

And this has been my historical critique of the software industrial complex, which is that the feedback loop for the people building the software is, can I sell it?

而不是：它带来了价值吗？

Not, did it add value?

这取决于你能否卖出去。

Which is downstream of, can you sell it?

因此，你可以把这看作是‘氛围编程’——人工智能的兴起。

And so, you could think of almost like vibe coding, the the advent of AI.

它让你能够创建专属于你的软件。

It allows you to make software that's specific to you.

如果你做对了，它本质上是专注于alpha的。

It's inherently alpha focused, if you do it right.

但我认为，那些已经专注于alpha的平台将继续保持优势。

But I'd so I think that the the platforms that are already focused on alpha are going to continue to have an advantage.

这就像一阵风，正好鼓满了它们的帆。

It's like actually gonna be win that fills their sail up.

另一方面，所有专注于beta的东西都将面临巨大困难。

On the other side, the stuff that's all beta is really gonna struggle.

你甚至可以说，也许beta根本就没那么有价值。让我感到震惊的一点是，在新冠疫情期间，如果你回看 CEOs 在财报电话会议中谈论软件时说了什么。

And you can almost argue, like, maybe the beta wasn't that valuable to begin One of the jarring moments for me was in COVID, if you really look back at what were CEOs talking about in their earnings calls about software.

没有人谈论他们那价值50亿美元的ERP实施项目，尽管这个项目本应拯救他们的供应链，但所有这些系统在两周内就像纸牌屋一样纷纷垮塌。

They no one talked about the $5,000,000,000 ERP implementation they did that saved their supply chain, because all of them fell over like paper tigers in two weeks.

他们谈论的是Zoom和Teams，以及这些工具如何帮助他们实现远程办公。

And what they were talking about was Zoom and Teams, and how that enabled them to go remote.

你不能觉得这很疯狂。

And you cannot think of like, that's crazy.

这本该是软件行业的一个‘斯普特尼克时刻’，让我们意识到：天啊，我们根本没做出什么有价值的东西。

That is that that should've been a Sputnik moment for the software industry to say, Wow, we haven't built shit that's valuable.

真让人沮丧。

How depressing.

对我们来说，至少COVID是一股巨大的顺风，因为我们能够以与颠覆速度同步的速度帮助客户适应这一现实。

You know, on the flip side for us, at least COVID was a huge tailwind, specifically because we were able to help our customers adapt to this reality at the speed of the disruption.

我认为这真正区分了精华与糟粕。

I think it kind of separated the wheat from the chaff.

我觉得我们会看到，也许我们之前花了很多钱在一些几乎只是跟风的事情上，比如‘别人都用这个做这个’。

And I think we'll kind of see that, you know, maybe there's a lot of things we've been spending on almost memetically, like, well, other people use it for this.

这是针对X的标准行业解决方案。

This is a standard industry solution for X.

这些方面将面临巨大压力。

Those things are going to feel a lot of pressure.

另一方面，将会出现一些软件。

And on flip side, there are gonna be software.

这几乎就像一套工具包或方法，能让你表达出自己与其它公司的不同之处。

It's almost almost like a toolkit, an approach that allows you to express how you're more different than other companies.

它几乎成为一种软件，让你能够展现自己的竞争优势和战略，而这将成为一种高端价值。

It almost becomes software that allows you to express your competitive advantage, your strategy, is going to be a premium.

至于第二天的事情，比如氛围编码，我认为这其实是真的。

On the day two stuff, like vibe coding, can't do I think that's actually true.

我觉得确实如此，第二天的挑战要难得多，很多问题尚未解决，你必须自己找到答案。

Like, I think it's actually true that day two is much harder, a lot of it's unsolved, and you're gonna have to figure that out.

但我认为这并不会减轻对Beta版软件的压力。

But I don't think that's gonna preclude the pressure on the beta, on the beta software.

是的

Yeah.

就价值积累而言，目前看来硬件层的利润率最高，而在互联网经济中，应用层曾拥有最高的利润率。

In terms of accruing value, right now it seems like the hardware layer has the highest margins, whereas in the Internet economy, the the applications had had the highest margins.

我想知道，你认为AI会像互联网一样，由掌控终端用户关系的实体获取最多价值，还是会更像云计算，由基础设施层获取最多价值或拥有最高利润率？

I'm I'm curious if you think AI will be like like the Internet where the sort of the entities that control the end user relationships accrue the most value, or if you think it'll be more like the cloud where the infrastructure layer is the is is is the the most accrues the most value or has the highest margins.

你如何看待这一趋势的发展？

How do you think about how it'll play out?

如果你把整个技术栈看作芯片、模型、AI基础设施、AI应用，我从实际观察到的情况是，模型正在被商品化，或始终面临压力。

If you thought about the the stack as, chips, models, AI infrastructure, AI applications, what I see happening empirically is the the models are being commoditized and or always under pressure.

因此，模型公司正在向上游扩展。

So the model companies are expanding up.

有时他们以一种轻描淡写的方式称之为‘框架’，但实际上他们正在围绕模型构建软件，作为AI基础设施来实现类似代码生成的功能。

Sometimes they they almost call it in a diminutive way a harness, but actually they're building software around it that is AI infrastructure to do something like code.

而那些最初专注于垂直领域AI解决方案的公司，正在逐步向下渗透，意识到：哦，我需要真正的AI基础设施，才能为我的客户群扩展规模并处理更多用例。

And then the people who started as narrow vertical AI solutions are kind of earning their way down the stack to realize like, oh, I need this actual AI infrastructure to be able to scale to my customer base and handle more use cases.

所以我们的理论一直认为，价值将集中在两个地方：芯片层和AI基础设施层，也就是我们所说的本体层。

So our theory has always been the value is gonna accrue in two places, at the chips layer and at the AI infrastructure layer, what we would call ontology.

但这两个层级我认为都会具有很强的防御性。

But those two layers, I think, are gonna be pretty defensible.

前几天《经济学人》有一张有趣的图表，讨论了经济将如何发展，并给出了三种预测。

There's this funny chart in The Economist the other day about what's gonna happen to the economy, and it gives three predictions.

要么一切走向垂直整合，即通用人工智能；要么我们都死了，或者经济彻底崩溃；要么就是2%的温和增长。

Either everything goes vertical, AGI, either, you know, we're all dead or, you know, we're all economically dead, everything collapses, or, you know, 2% growth.

所以，《经济学人》就像许多其他机构一样，在做谨慎的平衡。

And so, you know, The Economist is is is has hedging just like many others.

我想知道，你对AI将如何影响经济有什么看法？特别是在生产率数据和GDP增长方面，以及就业市场。

I'm curious how you what's your sort of mental model for what AI is going to do to the economy in terms of, you know, the productivity stats and and GDP growth, but then also the the the the job market.

当AI在中期内实现其目标，我们逐渐接近人们所谈论的潜力时。

And AI as it achieves its goals over the medium term, and we sort of start to reach the potential that people have been talking about.

人们常说AI会在2027年发挥作用，即使推迟到2030年，你认为它将如何影响经济？

People say AI 2027, even if it's 2030, how do you think it's gonna impact the economy?

我对此有很多想法，希望我们能全部谈到，而且

I have a lot of thoughts here, so hopefully we'll hit them all, and

我不会忘记它们，

I won't forget them as

当我们继续讨论时。

we go through this.

所以，让我一直感到不爽的是，我们谈论AI时，仿佛我们完全没有人类的能动性。

So the the first bit is what always irks me about how we talk about AI is is as if somehow we have no human agency.

AI将会做X。

AI is gonna do x.

不。

No.

这种说法不对。

That's not right.

人类将会利用AI来做X。

Humans are going to use AI to do x.

这里有一个选择。

There's a choice here.

我们是否愿意投资于AI的垃圾内容，借用约翰·科尔森和帕特里克·科尔森的说法，就是AI的老虎机？

Do we wanna invest in AI slop, in essentially AI slot, to borrow an expression from from John Colson, Patrick Colson?

不。

No.

我认为这些东西我不愿意投资，至少我不愿意。

I think that these things are I don't wanna invest in that, at least.

那么，我们对AI价值的规范性看法是什么？

So what is our normative view of why AI is valuable?

它如何促进美国的繁荣？

How does it in American prosperity?

它如何让我们的社会变得更好，而不是更糟？

How does it make our society better, not worse?

并且要重新认识到，我们拥有能动性，因此有责任以某种特定方式引导它。

And restoring the fact that we had agency, and therefore an obligation, to steer this in a specific way.

所以这是第一部分。

So that's the first part of it.

那么，如果我们有能动性，那它是什么？

Then if, okay, if we have agency, what is that?

在我看来，我们有一个历史性机遇，可以修复七十年代以来工资增长与GDP增长之间的根本性脱节。

Know, my my view of this is we have a historic opportunity to fix the fundamental breakdown that happened in the seventies between wage growth and GDP growth.

如果我们看看英特尔军士长突然能做很多事情的例子，我认为这在重症监护室的病房里也在发生。

That this should be if we look at just the the example we have about the intel warrant officer who's suddenly able to do so much, Well, I see that playing out on the ICU floor.

我认为这在工厂车间里也在发生。

I see that playing out on the factory floor.

我们有机会让美国工人借助人工智能获得超能力。

There's an opportunity to give the American worker superpowers with AI.

这就像大卫的弹弓，在一个中国巨兽持续吸走美国繁荣的时代。

It's David's slingshot in a world where the Chinese Goliath has been this giant sucking sound of American prosperity.

如果我们这样做，这就为国家的再工业化提供了基础。

If we do that, it's a basis for underwriting the reindustrialization of the country.

我们不会以对称的方式来做这件事。

And we're not gonna do this symmetrically.

这就是为什么它像一根弹弓。

That's why it's a slingshot.

并不是说，嘿，他们那里是怎么做的。

It's not like, hey, this is how they do it there.

我们要在这里做这件事。

We're gonna do this here.

实际上，我们要以完全新颖的方式来实现它。

It's actually we're gonna do this in entirely new ways.

哈德良就是一个完美的例子。

Like Hadrian is a perfect example of that.

对吧？

Right?

我们正在利用技术重新工业化，让这些人的生产力提高50倍甚至100倍，这将带来各种新的可能性，特别是因为我认为全球化的最大谎言是：我们可以在这里搞创新，而把生产移到那边去。

We are re industrializing, using technology, making these people 50, a 100 times more productive than it could be otherwise, and it's going to lead to all sorts of of new possibilities in particular because I think the great lie of globalization is that we can do the innovation over here, and we're gonna have the production go over there.

但你猜怎么着？

But guess what?

创新是生产力的结果。

Innovation is a consequence of productivity.

如果你连东西都做不出来，就不可能去创新如何制造它，或者它该是什么样子。

If you don't make the thing, you can't innovate on how you make the thing and what the thing is.

你看SpaceX就是这样。

You see that with SpaceX.

研发工程师之所以和生产线同处一地，是有原因的。

There's a reason the r and d engineers are co located on the production floor.

他们期望从这种安排中获得怎样的反馈循环和周期时间？

What is the feedback loop and cycle time they expect to come out of that?

在负面例子中，我们曾经以为药明康德只是些廉价的移液机械臂，用于合同制药研究，但现在中国已经承担了全球50%的临床试验。

And you see that in the negative where we used to think WuXi was just some cheap set of pipetting arms for contract pharmaceutical research, and now 50% of all clinical trials are being done in China.

所以我认为，我们应该把这看作是关于人工智能的国家紧急事务和国家机遇。

And and so I think we should view this as a national emergency and a national opportunity around AI.

让我有点担忧的是，这些技术革命通常大多是工具层面的革命，而不是概念层面的革命。

And what what concerns me a bit, these technology revolutions are usually by like, the vast, vast majority are tool revolutions, not concept revolutions.

并不是伽利略发明了望远镜。

It was not Galileo who invented the telescope.

他只是用它发现了行星运动。

He used it to discover planetary motion.

这些技术的未来——显微镜、动力织布机、望远镜、个人电脑——并非由技术的发明者决定，而是由使用这些技术的人决定的。

It was the the future of these technologies, the microscope, the power loom, the telescope, the personal computer, they are determined not by the inventor of the technology, but by the people who wield the technology.

今天，当我们聆听人工智能的末日论时，我们听到的是发明者的声音，他们极其聪明。

Today, when we listen to the AI doomerism, we're listening to the inventors, who are incredibly smart.

但就像他们的创造物一样，他们也拥有自己片面的智慧。

But just like their creations, they have their own jagged intelligence.

你知道，仅仅因为他们擅长构建模型，并不意味着他们就能准确预测其影响。

You know, just because they were smart at building the model doesn't mean they're gonna be right about the implications of it.

而我们却在不知不觉中放弃了自己引导它的主动权。

And then we are implicitly giving up our own human agency in how to steer it.

决定这项技术未来走向的，是我们这些使用者。

It is us as the wielders of it that are gonna determine the future course of this technology.

我认为，那位经济学家图表中最真实的地方，就是那些可能的结果范围确实完全有可能实现。

And I see, you know, maybe the most authentic thing about that economist graph is those range of outcomes are exactly what's possible.

而选择我们该走向哪一个，取决于我们自己。

And it's up to us to pick which one we wanna be on.

这是我们正在做出的选择。

It's a choice we're making.

这不是发生在我们身上的事情。

It's not something that's being done to us.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

你刚刚说了一件非常有趣、却未被充分探讨的事情，那就是研发与生产的紧密结合，这一点我们过去非常清楚。

You you just said something so interesting that I think is is underexplored, which is the the colocation of r and d and production, which is something we very much understood.

这有点像是亨利·福特那种风格。

That was sort of you know, that's the that's the Henry Ford style.

对吧？

Right?

就像我们过去在物理世界中制造东西的方式。

Like, that that's how we used to build things in the physical world.

而全球化当然导致了它们的分离。

And then, of course, globalization led to this sort of separation of them.

即使在今天，你仍然能在一些公司看到这种情况。

And even you still see it in companies.

对吧？

Right?

在许多公司里，工程团队和生产团队并不是同一支队伍。

It's like the engineering team in many companies is not the same as the production team.

你完全可以是一家生产公司，或者是一家工程公司。

You can be a production company or an engineering company.

我们在我们的美国活力投资组合中经常看到这种情况。

We see this a lot in our American dynamism portfolio.

这种哲学性分裂的推动力是什么？

What was the impetus for sort of that philosophical division?

你知道，很多人会提到九十年代的政策变化，但根据你的研究，真正导致生产和工程分离的原因是什么？

You know, I think a lot of people point to policy changes in the nineties, but what was, like, the real impetus from your research that that sort of led to this sort of divorce between production and engineering?

那么，你今天又看到公司里它们是如何重新融合的呢？

And and how are you seeing it come back together again in companies today?

在过去五十年里，欧洲从零开始创建的公司，没有一家市值超过一千亿美元。

Europe has created exactly zero companies from scratch in the last fifty years worth more than a €100,000,000,000.

而在美国，过去五十年里，我们从零开始创建了所有这些千亿美元级别的公司。

We have created all of our trillion dollar companies from scratch in America in the last fifty years.

是的。

Mhmm.

差异就在于创始人。

The difference is founders.

你知道吧？

You know?

你们那边确实有一些非常好的公司，但它们都快有300年历史了。

You have really good companies over there, but they're like 300 years old.

一百年左右吧，不管怎样。

A 100 years old, whatever it is.

直到最近，我们还一度把大型科技公司搞得像欧洲企业那样。

What we we we kind of had the Europe Europeanization of our mega cap companies until recently.

你知道吧？

You know?

英特尔曾经面临一个关键抉择：要么提拔他们的CFO当CEO，要么让当时担任CTO的帕特·基辛格接任。

Intel, at some point, there was this fork in the road where they could they could have promoted their CFO to be the CEO or Pat Gelsinger as CTO back then.

那是他后来重返CEO职位之前的事。

This is before he came back later to be CEO.

他们最终选了谁？

Who do they pick?

他们选了CFO，那个华尔街能理解的人，而不是真正能决定未来路线图的人。

They picked the CFO, the person that Wall Street would understand, not the person who could actually determine the future roadmap.

顺便说一下，这看起来确实管用了十年，直到突然崩盘。

And by the way, it really looked like it was working for ten years until it fell off a cliff.

是的。

Yeah.

但那都是财务操作，不是真正的工程。

But that was all financial engineering, not real engineering.

你知道，上一位来自工程背景的波音CEO是什么时候？

You know, when was the the last Boeing CEO to be an engineer?

我觉得是2004年。

I think it was 2004.

你知道，曾经有一段时间，我们的经济明白工程能力才是这些企业的根本。

You know, there there was a way there so you think about there's a period of time in our economy where we understood that the engineering was leaving these things.

马斯林说，成为CEO的路径是通过CTO，这听起来像是个疯狂的异端观点，因为对我这一代人来说，成长过程中根本不是这样。

Elon says the pathway to the CEO is through the CTO, which sounds like a crazy heretical statement because, like, certainly, for my generation, the way we grew up, that's not true.

嗯嗯。

Mhmm.

这并不是我们当初所学的。

That's not how that's not what we were taught.

是的。

Yeah.

不是。

No.

我并不是因为我是这里的CTO才这么说。

I'm I'm not saying that because I'm the CTO here.

别往深处想。

Don't read anything into that.

我只是想说，

I just I just mean that,

就像，是的。

like Yeah.

我们不会推断您今天在发布新闻。

We we won't infer that you're breaking news today.

英特尔前总裁安迪·格鲁夫过去总是在年度销售与市场启动会上提醒所有销售人员：记住，是工程师创造了所有价值。

Andy Grove, who was the president of Intel, used to start his annual sales and marketing kickoff meeting by reminding all the salespeople, just remember, it's the engineers who create all the value.

你们只是在来回搬运而已。

You guys just move it around.

你知道的。

You know?

这并不意味着销售人员不重要或不必要，但这里确实存在一种先后顺序。

And it doesn't mean the salespeople aren't important or aren't necessary, but there is kind of a sequencing here.

我认为我们在这方面变得非常困惑，我们擅长了财务工程，却忘记了真正的工程。

And I think we kinda got very confused about that, that we became very good at financial engineering and forgot about engineering.

一件事是

One thing one

我们投资组合中的一位首席执行官说过，也许销售人员是最难被人工智能替代或自动化的。

of our portfolio CEOs said is that maybe salespeople are the least AI able in terms of being able to be automated or replace them.

我的意思是，我很想知道你如何看待科技公司中那些与人工智能结合的工作，比如你们在Palantir是如何应用AI的。

I mean, I'm curious how you think about sort of the jobs at tech companies, you know, leveraging with AI, how you're using in your own com you know, in Palantir.

你是怎么看待这个问题的？

How do think about that?

是的。

Yeah.

我想提到之前说过的一点，这和这个问题有关：帕斯卡说过，每个人心中都有一个上帝形状的空洞。

So one part I was I was gonna say from earlier that I think is relevant to this is, you know, Pascal said every human has a God shaped hole in their heart.

而实验室潜在的问题在于，他们用通用人工智能填补了这个空洞。

And part of the potential pathology from the labs is that they have filled that hole with AGI.

因此，他们声称是经验性的某些观点，实际上只是信仰。

And so there are things that they assert as empirical that are actually articles of faith.

这些观点可能是对的。

They may be true.

也可能不对。

They may not be true.

我不知道。

I don't know.

但他们混淆了信仰主张和真正的实证现实。

But they get confused between what's an article of faith and what is actually an empirical reality.

所以，如果你以一种非常务实、清醒的视角来看，比如销售人员，我不明白为什么一开始就要取代人。

And so if you view this through a very pragmatic clear eyed view, say the salespeople, I'm not sure why the goal is replacing people to begin with.

难道目标不是赢吗？

Like, isn't the goal to win?

难道目标不是在行业中占据主导地位吗？

Isn't the goal to be dominant in your industry?

你希望变得更好。

You wanna be better.

所以，也许变得更好意味着组建一个混合的人类与AI团队。

And so maybe being better is about a mixed mammal AI team.

我要如何为我现有的销售人员打造一套钢铁侠战衣？

It's how do I build the Iron Man suit for the salespeople I do have?

我如何让最优秀的销售人员更高效并实现系统化？

How do I make the best salespeople more productive and systematize?

他们身上有哪些特质是其他人可以学习的？

What is it that makes them good for everyone else?

如果你的目标是取胜，那么看待这个问题的方式还有很多种。

There's all sorts of other ways of thinking about the problem if your goal is winning.

但如果你的目标是通用人工智能，那么无法用这个模型取代人类这一事实本身就被视为一种冒犯，你会继续执着于此，你知道的，你会一直朝这个方向推进。

But if your goal is AGI, it's it's the aesthetic of the fact that you couldn't replace the person with this model is offensive, and you're just gonna, you know, you're just gonna keep driving at that.

我认为这可能会成为一个干扰。

And I think it could be a distraction.

我认为中国在这方面确实有一点优势，首先明确一点，我会一百次中一百次押注我们。

This is one way in which I think the Chinese do have a little bit of an advantage, which is, first of all, just to be clear, I'd bet on us, you know, a 100 times out of a 100.

但他们采取的是务实的方法。

But they have a pragmatic approach.

人工智能的全部意义就在于取胜。

Like, the whole point of AI is to win.

这不是通用人工智能。

It's not AGI.

而是我该如何提升我的生产力，就像他们所说的那样。

It's how do I improve my productive forces, as they would call it.

现在，我认为好消息是，如果你看看美国那些掌握技术的人，他们关注的就是这个。

Now, I think that the good news is, if you look at the people who wield the technology in America, that's what they're focused on.

你知道，我接触的那些CEO，没有一个问我：嘿，我想解雇一大批人，或者怎么才能摆脱这些人？

You know, the CEOs I deal with, none of them have asked me, hey, I wanna fire a bunch of people, or how do I get rid of these people?

也许是因为我们太贵了，不值得用在这种无谓的用途上，但他们来找我时说的是：我想主导我的行业。

Maybe because we're too expensive for that sort of bullshit use case, but they come to me and say, I wanna dominate my industry.

我想彻底击败我的竞争对手。

Like, I wanna destroy my competition.

好吧，很好。

Okay, great.

所以雄心是存在的，也许通过这样做你会变得更高效，但真正目的是实现大规模增长。

So the ambition is there, and maybe you get more efficient by doing it, but actually the whole point is to grow massively.

因此，这种野心设定了你应用技术的方式以及你认为有价值的解决方案的框架。

So that ambition sets the frame of how you're gonna apply the technology and what sort of solutions you find valuable.

说到中国，我们如何在人工智能竞赛中胜出，尤其是在人工智能向物理AI和机器人等领域发展的过程中？

Speak speaking of China, how do we win the AI race, particularly as it moves towards more physical AI and and robotics, etcetera?

我们需要确保做对哪些事情，或者需要修正哪些问题？

What are the things to make make sure we get right or or the things we need to we need to fix?

我认为我们国家最大的风险是自我毁灭，而不是他杀。

I think our biggest risk as a country is suicide, not homicide.

你知道，任何了解我的人都知道我是个强硬的对华鹰派，我认为中国面临的一个挑战是，中共的繁荣还不够。

You know, I I have anyone who knows me knows I'm I'm a big China hawk, I think part of the the challenge with China is it's not enough for the CCP to prosper.

美国也必须衰落。

America must also fall.

你看。

Like, look.

你想买我们的大豆也好，不想买也好，我都不介意。

If you wanna buy our soybeans or not, I don't begrudge you.

这是商业决策。

That's a business decision.

这是自由贸易。

That's free trade.

太好了。

What great.

但当你试图偷偷引入农业真菌，让我们无法种植大豆时，那就是完全不同的另一回事了。

But when you're trying to smuggle in agricultural funguses so that we can't grow soybeans, that's a different ballgame altogether.

这违背了我这种美国加尔文主义式的公平竞争观念。

And that that offends my kind of American Calvinist sensibilities of fair play.

但说了这么多，这可能会让人觉得我非常关心谋杀案。

But so all that said, that would that would make it seem like I care a lot about homicide.

但我觉得我们真正的问题在于国家的意志和专注力。

But I think our problem is actually one of national will and focus.

我们是否真的在应对这里所面临的问题？

And, like, are we actually addressing the problems that we face here?

我们是否在鼓励该机构和我们的人员相信世界可以变得更好？

Are we encouraging the agency and our people to believe the world can be better?

你知道，这表现为一种虚无主义和极化的氛围，我们忘记了是什么让我们成为我们，是什么将我们团结在一起，而只关注那些让我们分裂的东西。

You know, this manifests in a sense of just kind of like nihilism and polarization, that we forget what makes us, what unites us, and we focus on what divides us.

还有一种感觉，好像什么都没用，什么都不重要，不如干脆全部毁掉。

And there's this kind of sense like, hey, nothing really works and doesn't really matter, so let's just burn it all down.

在我看来，Palantir在这个世界上的作用，很大程度上关乎我们制度的合法性。

And a big part of how I think of what Palantir does in the world is it is about the legitimacy of our institutions.

无论是飞机门脱落，还是基本政府服务能否正常运行，这些机构都应当卓越地运作。

Like, whether it's doors falling off planes or basic government services working, these institutions should all work excellently.

当这些机构无法正常运作时，就会滋生这种虚无主义。

In the absence of them working, it breeds this nihilism.

然后你会对此做出错误的反应。

And then you you get the wrong reaction to it.

因此，这就是我认为我们应当集中精力解决的问题。

So that's what that's what I think we should focus on addressing.

所以，现在谈谈物理AI，拥有雄心壮志的意义在于——让我们重新工业化。

So now, to physical AI, the point of having an ambition, like, let's re industrialize.

让我们对此抱有极致的追求。

Let's be maximalist about this.

不要搞那种半吊子的做法，比如在法国这里或那里稍微回流一点之类的。

Not some sort of half measure that's like, let a little bit of French shoring here or there or whatever.

不，不是这样。

It's like, no.

这些技术都是我们发明的。

We invented all of these technologies.

我们发明了大规模生产。

We invented mass production.

我们发明了核能。

We invented nuclear power.

一件接一件，我们却似乎认为美国人民已经不具备这样的能力了。

Thing after thing after thing, it's like the idea that somehow the American people are not capable of this thing.

这简直令人难以置信。

How is that it it it beggars belief.

对吧？

Right?

所以我认为这实际上关乎意志、动力和领导力。

So I think it's actually about will and motivation and leadership.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

我觉得这很好地引出了你在建设文化方面所做的事情，因为我认为这一点经常被忽视。

I think that that is such a good segue into what you're doing in terms of building culture because I I think this is something that, is overlooked.

很多人认为这是一个技术问题或生产问题，而我同意你的观点，认为这其实是一个认真态度和意志力的问题。

A lot of people think it's a technical problem or a production problem, and and I agree with you that I think it's it's a seriousness and a will problem.

而你现在一直在投资电影，这与你在Palantir所做的完全不一样。

And you have now been investing in film, which is totally different than what you do at Palantir.

所以我非常想了解，你为什么创办了一家电影制作公司，以及你认为这最终将如何改变人们在面对困难事情时更具决心的文化？

So I would love to understand, you know, why did you start a a film production company, and how do you think that's ultimately going to change culture around having more will about doing these hard things?

其实，这源于我自己的融入历程。

Well, my it really starts with my own assimilation journey.

你知道，我小时候就来到了美国。

You know, I can't I came to The US as a as a young child.

我在奥兰多定居下来，作为四岁、五岁的孩子，我常常和爸爸一起在沙发上看电影。

I settled in Orlando, and my assimilation journey as a four year old, five year old was watching movies with dad on the couch.

那么八九十年代的电影有哪些呢？

And what were the movies of the eighties and nineties?

是《猎杀红色十月》、《红色黎明》、《第一滴血2》和《第一滴血3》。

It was Hunt for Red October and Red Dawn and Rambo two and three.

我想说，作为一个五岁的孩子，在懂得公民课之前，我就已经体会到了身为美国人的感觉。

And, you know, I like to say as a five year old, I knew what it felt like to be an American before I knew civics.

那都是很久以后的事情了。

That was way way down the line.

我认为很多人在长时间之后观看《壮志凌云》时也会有类似的感受。

And I think a lot of people experience that again after a long period of time when they watch Maverick.

所以，有时候我们会过度理性化这些事情。

And so, you know, we sometimes over intellectualize these things.

这其中有一种感觉。

Like, there's a feeling to it.

就连《300勇士》的制片人告诉我，这部电影上映后，海军海豹突击队的招募人数激增，他本人也感到困惑。

Even subtle things like I heard from the guy who made the movie 300, that after 300 came out, Navy SEAL recruitment went through the roof, and he he was kinda perplexed.

显然，这是一部关于斯巴达人的电影。

Obviously, it's it's a movie about Spartans.

这跟海军海豹突击队有什么关系呢？

Like, what does this have to do with Navy SEALs?

但它显然激励了无数人产生这样的想法：我想变得像那样。

But it clearly inspired so many people to be like, I wanna look like that.

我想拥有那样的力量。

I wanna be that strong.

我想变得那么英勇。

I wanna be that heroic.

你知道的。

You know?

所以，娱乐的首要美德是它必须有趣。

And and so the the virtue of entertainment as first of all, it's gotta be entertaining.

这里不是宣传口号。

It's not pravda here.

但它让我们反思自己：我们想成为什么样的人？想变成什么样子？

But then it it lets us reflect on ourselves, and who do we wanna be, and what do we wanna be like?

如果我们的娱乐内容全是《终结者》——人工智能毁灭世界、科技是邪恶的力量，全是反乌托邦的未来场景，那就营造了一种氛围，而我将之与我在奥兰多的童年对比：那时我生活在太空海岸的阴影下，人们坚信科学和技术无比伟大，我们终将生活在其他星球上。

And if our entertainment is all Terminator, AI ruins the world, technology is a force of evil, it's all dystopic future scenarios, that sets a sort of condition, which I would juxtapose to my youth in Orlando, growing up in the shadow of the Space Coast, which was just like science and technology is amazing, and we're gonna be living on other planets.

作为六年级学生，写一篇关于你将如何抵达火星的报告。

As a sixth grader, write a report on how are you gonna get to Mars.

这培养了一种根本性的信念：未来会更好，科学、技术，以及投入解决这些难题的意志，都是值得的。

And it just inculcates a fundamental belief that the future will be better, and that science, technology, the will to invest in these hard problems is worth it.

这很值得，所以我认为我们现在有机会以一种既有趣又鼓舞人心的方式重新夺回叙事的力量。

It's worth And and I so I think we we have a moment to reclaim storytelling in a way that's both entertaining and inspiring.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

我很喜欢你提到你是在奥兰多长大的。

I I love that you point out that you grew up in Orlando.

这很有趣。

It's funny.

我也是在八九十年代的佛罗里达长大的，那时候人们总笑话佛罗里达。

I I also grew up in Florida in the eighties and nineties, and it was like, you know, people made fun of Florida.

对吧？

Right?

他们根本不理解那里有什么好的。

Like they didn't understand there was anything good there.

但奥兰多，我的意思是，你说它是太空海岸的阴影。

But Orlando, I mean, you say it's the shadow of the space coast.

它也是迪士尼世界。

It's also Disney world.

对吧？

Right?

它承载了这个世纪最棒的故事。

It's the best stories of a century.

它是美国文化。

It's American culture.

所以我很想问问，你小时候是迪士尼迷吗？

And so I'd love to, I mean, were you a Disney kid?

我的意思是，像迪士尼这样的东西，是否也向你传递了那些通过卡通代代相传的善恶故事？

I mean, like, was that something that, like, also spoke to you of, like, these these stories of good and evil that are passed down through cartoons?

当然。

Absolutely.

有点像，那它是怎么

Kind of like, how how does that

消融的？

melt off?

在奥兰多长大的迪士尼孩子。

Disney kid in Orlando.

所以，另外，我想说，这个故事中有一部分是关于商业的：我们为什么会来到奥兰多？

So, also, I mean, there's a part of this story which is the the the biz like, why did we end up in Orlando?

你知道，在我们逃离尼日利亚的暴力之后，我爸爸有个儿时的朋友住在洛杉矶，给主题公园卖小玩意儿。

You know, after we we fled violence in Nigeria, my dad had a childhood friend who was living in LA who sold knickknacks to theme parks.

他对我说：嘿。

And he's like, hey.

你看。

Look.

我知道你们刚遭遇了可怕的事情。

I know this horrible thing just happened to you.

那里有个正在兴起的主题公园地方。

There's this up and coming place with theme parks.

我不住在那里。

I don't live there.

我需要一个我信任的人在那里。

I need someone I trust there.

那你为什么不去奥兰多呢？

Why why don't you go to Orlando?

所以，这不仅仅是说我是个迪士尼孩子。

So literally, it's not just that was I a Disney kid.

我父母的工作是在主题公园的商店里提供小饰品。

My parents' job was to provide knickknacks in the theme park stores.

所以，放学后，他们会带我去海洋世界，他们在补货的时候，我就去摸海鳐鱼。

So, like, after school, they would take me to SeaWorld, and I would pet the stingrays while they restock the shelves.

你知道的？

You know?

所以我从小深受这些故事的影响，尤其是EPCOT。

And so I I grew up very much imbibing the the storytelling, the asper I mean, EPCOT.

EPCOT的核心是描绘一个乐观的未来愿景，展现科技会是什么样子，以及英雄们的故事。

EPCOT was all about painting an optimistic vision of the future and what technology was gonna be like and the stories of of heroes.

你知道，世界上既有邪恶与黑暗，也有明确的英雄行为，这一切都令人无比振奋。

And, you know, that that there was both there was both evil and bad in the world, and there were clearly heroic actions that you could take, and it was all super inspiring.

嗯。

Mhmm.

而且，我觉得迪士尼电影中善恶对决的巅峰时期，大概就是九十年代的《狮子王》吧。

And do you I mean, that that's what's so interesting too is, like, I feel like the the height of the sort of good and evil battle inside of Disney film was sort of the, you know, Lion King nineties.

对吧？

Right?

那时候的电影风格确实不一样。

Like, I mean, they were different films then.

我们怎么才能回到那个时代？

How do we get back?

我的意思是，也许并不是回到过去。

I mean, maybe it's not back.

也许是向前发展。

Maybe it's forward.

但我们该如何重新为孩子们、为人们带来那些能让人重拾乐观的故事呢？

But how do we get back to those stories for children, for people to feel optimistic again?

我的意思是，你不会再听到有人说，‘我在这座城市长大，那是乐观主义的巅峰时期。’

I mean, you know, in some ways you don't hear, oh, I grew up in this city and and it's the height of optimism.

现在你不会再听到人们这样谈论加利福尼亚了。

You don't hear that about California anymore.

要让电影实现这种转变，究竟需要什么？

What what what will it take for movies to to transform that?

嗯，这算是我个人的看法，但我真的很期待大卫·埃里森将接管华纳兄弟。

Well, you know, this is a a kind of a personal opinion, but I'm really excited that David Ellison is is going to have Warner Brothers.

因为，如果你想想好莱坞，那些最初的电影公司老板，他们都是创始人。

Because, you know, if you think about Hollywood, the original studio heads, they were founders.

比如，三十年代的杰克·华纳，德国曾是美国娱乐业第三大出口市场。

Like, Jack Warner in the thirties, Germany was the third largest export market for American entertainment.

而纳粹实际上在好莱坞部署了监控设备，以控制影片的制作内容。

And the Nazis actually deployed sensors into Hollywood to control what was being made.

所有制片厂都屈服了，只有华纳兄弟没有。

And every studio capitulated except for Warner Brothers.

杰克·华纳是唯一敢于站出来讲真话的人。

Jack Warner was the only person willing to stand up and speak truth.

只有创始人才能做到这一点。

And only a founder can do that.

因为如果你是一个受雇的职业CEO，你根本无法承受这样的后果。

Because if you're a professional CEO who's employed, that's you you can't survive that.

是的。

Mhmm.

所以我认为，在某种程度上，这与当今的好莱坞和国防工业基地形成了镜像对照。

And so I think in some ways, there's a mirror to the present day Hollywood and the defense industrial base.

这是一种顺从。

It's conformity.

这是一种缺乏主见。

It's it's kind of lack of opinion.

这是一种对自身想要传达什么缺乏明确标准的看法。

It's it's it's lack of a normative view of what is it trying to communicate.

再往后面看，你可以看看越南战争时期。

Then if you go a little bit further down the line, you look at the Vietnam era.

在越南战争时期，好莱坞的内容非常愤世嫉俗，这反映了我们对自己的看法。

Like, we had very cynical Hollywood content in Vietnam as a reflection of how we felt about ourselves.

是的。

Yes.

1973年，乔治·卢卡斯拍了《美国风情画》，因为他受够了这种氛围。

In '73, George Lucas made American Graffiti because he was tired of it.

他觉得：我真的受够了。

He's like, I'm tired of it.

我只是想拍一部关于男孩开车追女孩的电影。

I just wanna make a movie about boys driving cars chasing girls.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

这就像一种清口剂，让美国民众重新记起：好吧，我们经历了那段悲伤和愤世嫉俗的时期，现在我们准备好了。

It was a palate cleanser that kind of like, yeah, the American people remembered like, okay, we we went through our period, our cycle of grief and cynicism, and we're we're ready.

它为八九十年代我们所有人心爱的电影奠定了基础。

And it set the conditions for the movies of the eighties and nineties that we all love.

我觉得我们现在也差不多厌倦了这种状态。

I think we're we're we're also kind of tired of it right now.

我们厌倦了那种‘一切都会变得更糟’的愤世嫉俗。

We're tired of the cynicism that everything's gonna be worse.

如果你在故事的呈现中看到这一点，《壮志凌云2》是最明显的例子，但眼下表现良好的内容都是美国风格的。

And if you see that in the performance of stories, Top Gun Maverick's the easy one to point to, but but but the the content that's doing well right now is American oriented.

它们是鼓舞人心的人物。

It's are inspirational figures.

这些英雄不是那些吸毒的反英雄，你不会希望自己的孩子长大后成为那样的人。

The heroes aren't anti heroes that are drug addicts that you wouldn't want your kids to grow up to be.

这其中确实有一种激励感，以及对我们自身身份的自豪感，这种情感也反映在娱乐内容中。

There's actually some sense of inspiration in it and some pride in in terms of who we are and how that reflects in the entertainment itself.

所以我认为，如果你想想未来两到十年，我们会看到大量类似的内容。

So I think I think we're you know, if you think about the next two to ten years, we're gonna see a lot of content like that.

这就是我在这些工作室自己的开发管线中看到的趋势。

That's what I see in the development pipeline from these studios themselves.

这令人兴奋。

That's exciting.

所以，能不能跟我们聊聊你的一些项目，或者你正在做的事情，以及你最期待的是什么？

So so maybe talk to us about some of your projects or or things you're working on and and what you're most excited about.

但同时，这确实很有趣。

But then also, yeah, that's so interesting.

埃里克和我，还有马克和其他人，已经多次讨论过，过去十年的创作管线一直很阴郁。

We we've had these conversations, Eric and I, with Mark and others about how, you know, the pipeline for the last ten years has been dour.

我们正处在管道的尾端。

We're sort of getting the end of the pipeline.

你今年在奥斯卡提名作品中就能看到这一点。

You're seeing it in sort of the Oscar nominees this year.

你知道的？

You know?

它们并不乐观。

It's like they're they're not optimistic.

但正如你所说，也许十年后，我们会看到一批充满爱国情怀、积极乐观、热情洋溢的黄金时代内容。

But as you said, like, maybe ten years from now, we're gonna see this pipeline of just, like, pro America exciting, optimistic, enthusiastic golden age sort of content.

你看到了什么？最让你兴奋的是什么？

What are you seeing, and and and what most excites you?

嗯，我不想透露太多我自己的开发项目细节。

Well, you know, I don't wanna give away too much of my own development pipeline here.

但我可以说，比如《使命召唤》现在正由皮特·伯格和泰勒·谢里丹制作。

But I would say, like, you see, like, Call of Duty is being made right now with by Pete Berg and Taylor Sheridan.

你看到了整个泰勒·谢里丹的宇宙。

You see the entire Taylor Sheridan universe.

我的意思是，谈谈《毒枭》吧。

I mean, and and talk about Sicario.

2014年的《毒枭》几乎已经与新的哈利斯科新一代贩毒集团融为一体了。

It was like 2014 Sicario has basically came to life with the new the Jalisco new generation cartel.

对吧？

Right?

某种程度上，故事讲述者所采用的视角正是我们感到兴奋的那种。

Like like, there there's a a sense in which the storytellers have exactly the frame that we're kind of excited about.

我认为，最近的事件现在非常适合作为故事题材。

I think there's recent events are very interesting to tell stories about right now.

即使是刚上映的电影《战争机器》，从预告片来看，还不是很明确。

Even a movie like War Machine, which just came out, from watching the trailers, it was not yet clear.

你可以想象，五年前，这个故事线可能会是美国政府制造邪恶机器人，人类士兵必须击败它们。

You could imagine, like, five years ago that that the storyline would have been something more like the US government build evil robots that the human soldiers had to defeat.

是的。

Mhmm.

在这种情况下，更像是外星人。

In this case, it was more like aliens, basically.

如果你还没看过的话，抱歉剧透了，但你知道，你有一个外星机器人，勇敢的美国游骑兵必须依靠自己的智慧击败它们。

Sorry to give away the plot if you haven't seen it, but, you know, you have an alien robot and brave American rangers have to defeat them and and do through their own ingenuity.

这本身表明，叙事和讲故事的方式正在发生转变。

That that itself is, I think, showing you it's it's belies the shift in the narrative and storytelling that's happening.

我认为世界事件提醒我们，真正的邪恶确实存在。

I think world events remind us that there are actually there is actually evil out there.

俄罗斯的坦克可以直接越过边境。

Russian tanks can just roll across the border.

你知道的。

You know?

10月7日发生的可怕暴行仍然可能发生，这些事情并不会自动维持下去。

October 7, just horrendous barbarism is still possible that these things don't maintain themselves.

我想把这个问题放在地缘政治的框架下来看，正如我之前所说，我们不应该称中国为‘近似对手’，而应该称其为‘对手’。

What would I should like, I think so putting So this back in a geopolitical lens, you know, as much as I've been saying we shouldn't call China near peer, we should call them peer.

因为称他们为‘近似对手’就像一种密码，让我们得以逃避责任。

Because calling them near peer is like a shibboleth that lets us off the hook.

当你看看马杜罗行动或午夜锤行动时，很难不认为这些行动在恢复全球威慑力方面做得更多。

When you look at operations like Maduro or Midnight Hammer, it's hard to think of more you have done to restore deterrence in the world.

这提醒我们，我们确实有这种意愿。

A reminder that we do have the will.

也许因为我们之前缺乏意愿，你忘记了我们拥有能力，但实际上我们既有能力，也有意愿去做一些非常了不起的事情。

Maybe because we didn't have the will, you forgot that we had capability, but we have both the capability and the will to do things that are quite amazing.

与此同时，这也传递了一个非常明显的真相：俄罗斯和中国的所有伎俩都失败了。

At the same time, it signals a very obvious truth, which is somehow none of the Russian and Chinese shit worked.

如果你是一个第三方国家，正在思考世界的未来以及你希望如何结盟？

So if you're a third party country and you're thinking about how what is the future of the world and how do you wanna be allied?

也许你之前一直在观望，因为你看到美国在退缩。

And maybe you've been hedging because you've been seeing American retreat.

这也提醒我们，中国并没有来拯救马杜罗，他们提供的所有设备似乎都毫无作用。

It's it's also a reminder that the Chinese did not come to save Maduro, and none of the equipment they provided actually seemed to do anything.

那么，这对你来说真的是一个可行的选择吗？

So is that really an option for you?

所以我给你一个地缘政治方面的回答，但我觉得好吧。

So I give you the geopolitical answer, but I think okay.

这里有一些我可以分享的项目。

Here are some some projects I I think I can share.

《奥本海默》取得了巨大成功且极为复杂，它像三维电影一样富有娱乐性。

So Oppenheimer was hugely successful and complicated, right, where it's like it's three-dimensional to the point of entertainment.

这根本不是问题。

It's not problem.

我认为海曼·里科弗与核潜艇部队的诞生背后，有一个非常动人的故事。

I think there's a very powerful story in Hyman Rickover and the birth of the nuclear navy.

我们之前稍微提过他，但让我欣赏里科弗的是，他出生在波兰的一艘船上，六岁时就来到了美国。

We talked a little bit about him, but, you know, what I love about Rickover is he was born in a shuttle in Poland, came came over at the age of six.

这是一个几乎擦肩而过的经历，他们当时在埃利斯岛。

One of these near almost near miss stories where they were on Ellis Island.

当你到达埃利斯岛时，有十天时间等人来接你。

When you get to Ellis Island, you have ten days for someone to come pick you up.

于是他母亲发了电报，给了某人钱，让对方给已经在这里的父亲发电报，叫他来接他们。

And so his mother sent a telegram gave someone money to send a telegram to the father who was already here to come get them.

那个人把电报的钱据为己有。

The guy pocketed the money for the telegram.

在第10天，恰好有个他们从旧世界认识的人出现，他冲出去找来父亲，让父亲出面认领他们，并为他们争取到了额外的一天。

On day 10, someone happens to arrive that they know from the old world who then runs out, gets the father to claim them, get buys them one extra day.

所以在第11天，他们被接走了。

So on day 11, get picked up.

但就是这次险些错过的经历，让我们差点就没了里克弗勒。

But, yeah, this near miss where we almost didn't have Rick over.

但里克弗勒是个出了名的难相处的人。

But Rick Ober was a notoriously difficult personality.

他身高只有五英尺二英寸，是个矮小的人。

He was a five foot two, short short guy.

在二战期间，他开过一艘运煤船。

In World War two, he drove a coal ship.

那并不是一个体面的职位。

Not he had no it was not a prestigious post.

但二战后，他被派往橡树岭，那里是曼哈顿计划的残余部分，他深受启发。

But after World War two, he was sent to Oak Ridge at the the vestiges of the Manhattan Project, and he was inspired.

他提出了将核动力装入潜艇的想法。

He had this idea of putting nuclear power inside of the submarines.

因为在此之前，潜艇性能很差。

Because before then, submarines sucked.

它们只能在水下航行一个小时。

They they could go underwater for, an hour.

它们是柴油动力的。

They were diesel powered.

它们很吵。

They were loud.

它们基本上是偶尔能下潜的水面舰艇。

They they were basically surface ships that could occasionally submerge.

从那以后，它们变得非常出色。

And after that, they became really exquisite.

我想他在大约五到六年内建造了第一艘，也就是鹦鹉螺号。

And and I think he built the first one in like five years, six years, the Nautilus.

但海军并不希望他成功。

But the Navy didn't want him to succeed.

不仅奥本海默认为这是个愚蠢的主意，海军也这么认为。

They they not only did Oppenheimer think it a stupid idea, the Navy did too.

他的第一个办公室是女厕所。

His first office was a women's restroom.

我跟你说真的，你知道，这简直就像我们怎么羞辱他让他放弃？

I kid you not, you know, it's like, how can we humiliate this guy to quit?

但他一直坚持着。

And he just kept going.

我认为，当你看他的回忆录时，有趣的是，他并非对羞辱无动于衷。

And what I I think is interesting when you look at his memoirs, like, it's not that he was immune to the humiliation.

他把每一次轻视都当作侮辱。

He felt every slight an insult.

他记录下了这些事，但不知怎的，他能将这些情绪转化为动力，继续推进，并最终取得成功。

He documented them, but somehow he was able to channel that into something he was gonna push through and still succeed despite that.

时任海军作战部长、海军最高军职官员的佐莫瓦尔特曾说，海军有三大敌人：苏联、空军和海曼·里科弗海军上将。

Zomwalt, who was the chief of naval operations, the senior most uniformed person in the navy, said, the navy has three enemies, the Soviet Union, the air force, and Hyman Rickover, the zone admiral.

另一点与我的第八个论点非常契合：海曼·里科弗当了三十年的四星上将。

The other thing that I think fits very closely with eighteenth thesis, like, Hyman Rickover was a four star admiral for thirty years.

这种事在今天简直难以想象。

That is something we can't even contemplate today.

我们几乎把军官们看作是不断轮换的齿轮。

We we almost view our our officers as as cogs to keep moving around.

每两到三年，你就得不断调动。

Every two to three years, you have to keep moving.

是的。

Mhmm.

作为核潜艇和海军反应堆的首任主管，他在这个职位上待了很长时间，但即使到现在，这个职位的任期也是八年，这体现了对人才的重视。

As the first director of the nuclear navy, of of naval reactors, you know, he was in that role for a very long time, but that role, even today, is an eight year stint, which shows you the primacy of people.

我们明白，对于如此精密的系统，如此关键的知识和连续性，不能每两三年就把人调走。

That we understand with something this exquisite, something where this much knowledge and continuity matters, you don't just keep pulling people out every two or three years.

我们的舰艇，我们的潜艇，安全程度远超世界其他任何国家。

And our our ships, our subs, were are the safest in the world by a long shot.

因此，苏联潜艇官兵每六个月就会去索契休养六个月，以恢复白细胞计数，因为他们长期受到辐射。

So every six months, the Soviet submariners would get six months of respite at Sochi to recover their white blood cell count because they were getting irradiated.

是的。

Mhmm.

我们从未因辐射导致人员死亡。

We've had no deaths due to irradiation.

哇。

Wow.

你知道，他建造时设定的标准是：必须安全到足以让我的儿子使用。

You know, he he built it with the specification, this has to be safe enough for my son.

他按照比最低安全标准高出一百倍的安全标准来建造。

He built it to a specification that is a 100 times safer than the minimum safety standard.

这种追求，只有创始人才能有。

And that is the sort of aspiration only a founder could have.

是的。

Yeah.

这将会是一部很棒的电影。

This is gonna be a great movie.

还有什么别的可做的呢？

What what else is there to do?

我的意思是，你已经把所有事情都做到了极致。

I mean, you're doing you're doing everything.

那么，你接下来还有什么计划？

So so what what what else is on the radar for you?

嗯，某种程度上，也许这已经足够了。

Well, you know, I in some sense, maybe it's enough.

但所有这些事情都有一条共同的主线，那就是关于美国的伟大和激励下一代。

But all of these things have a through line where it's really about American greatness and inspiring the next generation.

每当我想到我的孩子，意识到我成长中的美国是每一代人都必须为之奋斗的东西时，这一点就更加深刻了。

And it's driven home to me when I think about my kids and recognizing that the America I grew up in is something that every generation has had to fight for.

我现在正处于这样一个阶段：我在为下一代应得的繁荣而奋斗。

And I'm in that phase now where I'm fighting for the the prosperity that the next generation ought to have.

因此，无论是通过电影展现软实力和影响力，还是通过威慑对手、防止第三次世界大战来体现硬实力，这一切都关乎美国的伟大和美国人民的繁荣。

And so whether it's soft power and inspiration in movies or hard power and deterrence of adversaries in preventing World War three, it's all about American greatness and the prosperity of the American people.

感谢收听这期的a16z播客。

For listening to this episode of the a 16 z podcast.

如果你喜欢这期节目，请务必点赞、评论、订阅，给我们打分或留下评价，并分享给你的朋友和家人。

If you like this episode, be sure to like, comment, subscribe, leave us a rating or a review, and share it with your friends and family.