约翰和帕特里克·科利森谈Stripe的增长、代理商业与软件的未来

未来世界需要能每秒处理数十亿笔交易的平台，没错，就是数十亿笔，可现在的支付系统没一个能做到。

The world is gonna need platforms that support billions of transactions per second, billions of transactions per second, which no payment rail or platform does today.

我们觉得，未来会涌现出海量的自主型商业行为。

Where we think things will go is just there will be a huge amount of agentic commerce.

其实现在就已经能看到一点点苗头了。

And, again, we're seeing a little bit of it today.

但将来会像洪水一样爆发。

We think there'll be a torrent of it.

而这正是稳定币和人工智能的交汇点——因为我们需要区块链，而且是更强大的区块链。

And that is what unites stablecoins and AI because we think you're going to need blockchains and better blockchains.

到目前为止，软件的商业模式一直被看作是固定成本，然后尽可能地无限变现。

Up until now, the economics of software have been conceived about as fixed cost and then infinitely monetize or monetize as much as possible.

这种模式天然导致赢家通吃。

That has these kind of winner take all dynamics.

但一旦涉及推理成本和个性化生成，整个格局就彻底变了。

But once there are inference costs and custom creation involved, it really shifts.

就只有一个高管说，哦，是啊。

By only one executive who said, oh, yeah.

我们一开始用AI来增强客服，让员工更高效，但我们现在打算回到原来的做法。

We started, you know, augmenting our customer service with AI so people are more productive, but we're just gonna go back to doing it

还是老办法。

the old fashioned way.

去年，Stripe处理的支付总额超过了1万亿美元。

Stripe processed more than 1,000,000,000,000 in payments last year.

增长了34%。

It grew 34%.

根据帕特里克·科利森的说法，2026年第一季度可能会被后人视为奇点的开端。

And according to Patrick Collison, twenty twenty six Q1 may be looked back on as the first quarter of the singularity.

这可不是什么营销话术。

That's not a marketing line.

这是数据真实反映出来的。

It's what the data is showing.

Stripe上2025年的这一批企业，无论是规模还是单家企业表现，都超过了以往任何一批，而且势头还在加速。

The twenty twenty five cohort of businesses on Stripe is larger and performing better on a per business basis than any prior cohort, and the trend is accelerating.

在这场TBPN现场直播的对话中，约翰和帕特里克·科利森聊了聊他们在实体经济中真正看到的现象，为什么智能体商业需要支持每秒数十亿笔交易的区块链，以及软件本身该如何重新定义——从大规模量产的产品，变成像披萨一样，按需现做的定制化服务。

In this conversation recorded live on TBPN, John and Patrick Collison walk through what they're actually seeing in the real economy, why agent commerce will require blockchains capable of billions of transactions per second, and a reframe on software itself from mass produced product to something bespoke, cooked fresh at the moment of use, like pizza.

这场对话最初由约翰·库根和乔治·海耶斯主持，在TBPN播出。

This conversation originally aired on TBPN, hosted by John Coogan and Georgie Hayes.

今天我们请来了约翰和帕特里克·科利森，真正的元老级人物。

We have John and you Patrick Collison The OGs.

他们来自Stripe。

From Stripe.

你们俩最近怎么样？

How are you guys doing?

最近咋样？

What's going on?

大家好。

Greetings.

欢迎来到节目。

Welcome to the show.

太感谢了。

Thank you so much.

这事儿太重大了。

This is, this is huge.

我当年参加过Y Combinator。

I went through YC.

你们对我的职业生涯影响巨大，今天能在这么重要的日子跟你们聊天，真的特别开心。

You guys were massively, influential in my career, and, it's a joy to speak to you today on such a big day.

不过咱们还是先说说正事吧，有什么新消息？

But I'd love for you to kick it off with the actual news.

到底发生啥了？

What happened?

为啥今天要找你们来聊？

Why are we talking to you today?

今天我们有两个消息要公布。

We had two announcements today.

一个是启动员工股权收购计划，这个和估值相关的事儿上了不少头条。

One is we're launching a tender offer for, employees and that and kind of the valuation, everything tended to, get a bunch of the headlines.

但其实更花功夫的是，我们发布了年度信件——每年我们都会总结Stripe平台上观察到的所有趋势。

The thing that was honestly, more work was we released our annual letter where every year we, sum up all the trends, that we're seeing, on Stripe.

Stripe的增长势头非常猛。

And, Stripe is growing a lot.

去年我们增长了34%，因为平台上那些商家都在飞速发展。

We grew at 34% last year because the businesses on Stripe, are growing a lot.

你们也知道，现在科技圈真是事儿特别多。

And there's just, as you guys know, there's a lot happening in tech right now.

所以这才需要TBPN。

This is why we need TBPN.

正因如此，我们才需要源源不断地追踪每一件大事，因为真的太忙了。

This is why we need a nonstop stream of everything that is going on because there is so much happening.

所以呢。

So Yeah.

我们最终会过渡到24小时不间断的。

We'll move we'll move to twenty four hours eventually.

迟早的事。

Eventually.

迟早会的。

Eventually.

我的意思是，现在AI相关的噪音、新闻和八卦实在太多了，我们根本不用担心没话题聊。

I mean but, I feel like there is a ton of AI noise and stories and drama, and we are, you know, never running out of stuff to talk about.

但你实际在数据里看到的是什么？

But what are you actually seeing in the data?

因为市场和实体经济之间总是存在脱节。

Because there's always this disconnect between the market and the real economy.

毕竟，人们还是偶尔会去实体店购物的。

Like, people are still shopping in retail stores occasionally.

那你觉得人工智能到底在哪方面真正起到了作用？

What do you where is AI actually moving the needle?

总的来说，从Stripe的数据来看，目前整体经济形势挺不错的。

Well, the, generally speaking, I would say from the Stripe data, it looks like the economy is in pretty good shape.

过去这两年市场波动不小，发生了各种各样的事件，各种突发状况层出不穷。

And there's been, to say the to say the least, there's been some degree of volatility in markets over the last two years and, you know, all sorts of different events and deep sea moments and what have you.

但如果看实体经济的连续数据，看看这两年的实际发展情况，虽然预测未来永远很难，但过去这两年的整体状况确实挺好的。

But if you look at the actual real economy time series, if you look at what's actually happening substantively over the last two years, things I mean, it's it's always hard to prognosticate the future, but over the last two years, things really seem to be in good shape.

有个点我们特别在意——等我一下，

The thing that's really catching our attention One second,

因为我就是挺好奇的，

because I'm I'm just curious.

你们几位，对，

Have you have you guys Yeah.

有没有想过，Stripe平台上那些经营得不错的商家，会不会是因为本身都很有前瞻性、接轨市场趋势，选的赛道方向都特别准？

Tried to think about maybe the businesses are doing well on Stripe because they're, you know, kind of like forward looking, extremely tapped in, you know, working on the right things.

如果你看看那些老牌服务商，会发现其实有不少商家生意在放缓，可能是因为整体消费支出在下降。

And if you look at a bunch of legacy providers, you would see that actually there are a bunch of businesses out there that are slowing down, that maybe are feeling effective just overall consumer spending.

你有没有试着去分析一下，弄清楚这种现象背后的原因？

Like, have you tried to kind of like break that out or understand that dynamic?

这确实很难说清楚。

It's it's it's obviously hard

因为我们没有这方面的数据。

to measure because we don't have that data.

我们只有自己的数据。

We only have our data.

但我认为，确实存在一些结构上的差异。

But but but I think there is some of that composition effect.

我们在Stripe的数据里也能看到，跟其他公司的公开财报一比就很明显。

And we see it, I guess, both in Stripe's data compared to, say, public earnings from others.

显然，这两类群体的表现不太一样。

Like, clearly, the respective populations are performing somewhat differently.

但我们在和客户聊天时，也能从质的角度感受到这一点——比如一些老牌企业，早在Stripe出现之前，就已经建好了自己的业务和系统。

But I guess we also see it qualitatively in the conversations we're having with customers where what tends to happen, say, for some incumbent is they built some business, they installed some system long before Stripe even existed.

他们可能觉得，既然没出问题，那就别动它了。

Maybe there's some sense that, well, if it's not broken, don't fix it.

但后来突然决定：嘿，咱们要搞点新的了。

But then decide, hey.

要干点新玩意儿了。

We're gonna do something new.

一旦要搞新东西，他们就想要最顶尖的基础设施，能让他们跑得最快、快速进入那些国家、支持稳定币、玩AI，干啥都行。

And when they're doing something new, then they wanna use the best infrastructure that'll enable them to move the fastest and launch them in those countries and support stablecoins and do things with AI and whatever.

然后他们就会选Stripe来启动这些新项目。

And then they tend to launch that in Stripe.

所以从直觉上就能感觉到，只要公司决定要做点创新的、颠覆性的、重新架构的事情，他们大概率就会来找Stripe。

And so there is this qualitative sense that once a company decides to do something innovative, new, retoolable, what have you, they're they're more likely to to come to Stripe.

你有没有发现稳定币的使用和AI活动之间有重叠？

Are you seeing overlap between stablecoin activity and AI activity?

最近有种说法是AI智能体要用稳定币，但我觉得智能体用传统的支付轨道也完全没问题啊。

There's been sort of a new narrative around agents will use stablecoins, but I feel like agents can use legacy payment rails just fine.

而且稳定币本身也能实现很多超棒的功能，这些功能倒也不一定非得和原生AI绑定。

And then also you can do really cool things with stablecoins that are not really AI native necessarily.

所以我就很好奇，这两者之间到底有多少关联呢？

And so, I wonder I'm wondering how much overlap there is there.

我觉得得把当下的实际运行情况分开来谈，对的。

I would distinguish between how things work today Mhmm.

以及未来这些业务要怎么发展

And, how things will work in the future.

先说说现在的实际情况吧，智能代理完全是可以用的

In terms of how things work today, agents absolutely can.

毕竟好多开发者都用Stripe搭建产品

You know, a lot of people build with Stripe.

你完全可以生成一张一次性信用卡，让你的智能代理拿它去消费

You know, you can have a onetime use credit card that your agent can go out and spend.

但你看看现在的情况，代理们得不停地解CAPTCHA，才能在互联网上做点事。

But if you look at what's happening, there's lots of but, know, agents having to solve CAPTCHAs to, you know, be able to kinda do stuff on the wider web.

很明显，现在的网页根本不是为代理设计的。

Clearly, the web is not built for agents.

对。

Mhmm.

所以它们只能想尽办法，才能完成一些真正的现实任务。

And as a result, they have to get creative to actually do any real world tasks.

经济活动方面也是同样的道理。

And that's true in the kind of economic activity as well.

我们觉得未来会涌现出海量的代理式交易。

Where we think things will go is just there will be a huge amount of agentic commerce.

现在其实已经能看到一点点苗头了。

And, again, we're seeing a little bit of it today.

但未来，这股浪潮会彻底爆发。

We think there'll be a torrent of it.

这正是稳定币和AI的共同点，因为我们觉得你必须得依赖区块链，而且是更好的区块链，说实话。

And that is what unites stablecoins in AI because we think you're going to need blockchains and better blockchains, honestly.

说白了，我们当初孵化Tempo就是基于这个想法——为了给这些智能代理提供支持，我们需要超高吞吐量的区块链。

I mean, this is what this was our thinking behind incubating tempo because we're going to need really high throughput blockchains for the for the, for the agents.

你能给我们讲讲，过去哪些技术推动了互联网支付的发展吗？

Can you take us through some of the the historical technologies that led to growth in just Internet payments?

比如移动支付、社交电商、一键下单、Apple Pay这些。

I'm thinking about, like, mobile, social commerce, one click checkout, Apple Pay.

每当我想到即将到来的智能代理商业浪潮，就觉得有太多东西值得琢磨。

Like, there's so many things when I think about the agent commerce boom that's coming.

可能是把更强大的Siri和ChatGPT深度整合，大举推广，也可能是智能音箱、智能灯泡，甚至你的智能手表。

Like, it could be hooking a better version of Siri up and, you know, chat GPT rolling this out very aggressively, but also, you know, smart speakers, smart lamps, like your watch.

要让这些代理真正顺畅地运转起来，得解开的环节实在太多了。

Like, there's so many different pieces to unblock and un unhobble the the actual agents as they go about their day.

我能先回答一个稍微不同但相关的问题，然后再回过头来聊这个吗？

Well, can I answer a slightly different question, but then we can come back to that?

是的

Yeah.

你讲吧。

Go ahead.

我刚想说一点，不好意思。

A point I just sorry.

这事儿吧，兄弟们都知道。

This is brother

我们来问问题。

We'll tell you the questions.

你来回答就行。

You tell us your answers.

所以啊。

So

你懂的，兄弟之间都这样。

you you you know how brothers are.

不过我想澄清一点，关于刚才那个关于经济现状的问题——我知道这听起来挺随意的，但我觉得，2026年第一季度很可能会被后来的人看作是‘奇点’的开端。

But so I just wanna lose one point per the prior question about, you know, what we're seeing in the economy because I feel like I mean, this this is very arbitrary, obviously, but I feel like there's at least a reasonable chance that twenty twenty six q one will be looked back upon as the first quarter of the singularity.

也许三年后回头看，这想法会显得特别荒谬。

Maybe in three years, in hindsight, that'll look completely delusional.

我也不确定。

I don't know.

对。

Mhmm.

但我们现在看到的，比如Stripe用户群体的整体宏观情况，其实挺不错的，只是‘双马’还没真正冒头。

But what we're seeing I mean, the the the kind of the macroscopic picture of the Stripe user base and things overall looking pretty good and so forth and the the two malt's not quite showing up.

当我们看用户群组的时候，再对比2023年注册的企业、之后几个月的发展轨迹，2024年注册的，还有2025年注册的，你会发现……

But when we look at the cohorts, and then when we look at the businesses that signed up in 2023 and their progression and trajectory over the subsequent months, the businesses that signed up in 2024, and then the business signed up in 2025.

2025年出现了一个明显的转折：不仅新注册的企业数量多了，而且平均每家企业的表现也更好了，这真的很惊人，你可能会想，嗯……

There's been a phase transition in 2025 where there are both more of them, and on a per business basis, they are on average doing better, which is really striking because you might think, okay.

是不是突然冒出一堆轻量级、五层包装的App？但说实话，那背后并没有多少实质内容。

Well, there's this cavalcade of new lightweight, five coated applications or something, but, you know, there's not really a lot of substance there.

我们实际上看到这两个数据是在同步上升的。

We're actually seeing both numbers move together.

新成立的企业多了不少，而且平均每家企业的表现也更好了。

There are many more business getting started, and the average the median business is, in fact, performing better.

对。

Mhmm.

2026年才刚过了几周，但目前的迹象显示，2026年可能比2025年那波显著增长还要更快。

We're only a couple weeks into 2026, but it see it it looks tentatively like 2026 may plausibly be an acceleration even even over that significant leap of 2025.

我不确定。

So I don't know.

过去几年，AI领域的突破和创新真是一波接一波。

I mean, there's we've we've had all sorts of dramatic AI inventions and innovations over the last couple years.

问题是，这些技术到底怎么落地？什么时候能真正影响经济？

There's a bit of a question of, well, how and when, and how should we think about how it'll translate to the economy.

但要说实际的消费行为，我觉得在Stripe上，2025到2026年才是我们真正看到变化的时候。

I would say looking at real purchasing behavior on Stripe, 2025, '25, '26 is when I feel like we're really starting to see it.

这数据太有意思了。

That's super interesting data.

一方面，昨天或者上周末刚出了一份调查，问了一堆高管：你们从AI里获得价值了吗？

One, because we were there was some survey that came out yesterday or maybe it was late last week that said asked, like, they asked a bunch of executives, are you getting any value out of AI?

结果80%的人都说没有。

And 80% of them said no.

但如果你仔细看看，其实……

But clearly, if you look you when you look at

得了吧。

Oh, come on.

这纯属胡扯。

That's hogwash.

你倒是给我找一个高管，说想把AI算力的钱退了的？

Like, find me one executive who wants a refund on their tokens.

你找一个高管，说‘哦，是啊’的？

Find me one executive who said, oh, yeah.

我们一开始用AI来增强客服，让员工更高效，但现在倒好，打算回到老办法——手写代码，觉得根本不需要这些自动化工具。

We started, you know, augmenting our customer service with AI so people are more productive, but we're just gonna go back to doing it the old fashioned way Or, like, we're spinning our code by hand, and, you know, we don't need any of this automated loom, you know, technology.

对。

Yeah.

就是说，我们真的打算回到过去。

Just like, we're Yeah.

我不是说我不知道能举出一堆理由。

I'm not I'm not saying I'm not I I could I could pick out a bunch of reasons.

不是。

No.

不是。

No.

我不是说我觉得

I'm not saying I

我同意悲观的看法。

agree pessimist.

不行。

No.

我能列出一大堆理由说明这会出问题。

I could pick out a bunch of reasons why it would be wrong.

其中一个原因可能是，他们根本没真正上手用这些工具，所以就觉得——

One one reason it might be wrong is they is they're not in the weeds actually using the tools, and so they just think like,

连自己在用这些工具都不知道，因为都藏在底层了。

well not even be aware that they're using the tools because it's buried under

他们感受不到效率提升，因为他们根本没在用，你知道的。

And they're not they're not feeling the acceleration because they're not they're not Yeah.

我想问问，你们是怎么看待像Tempo这样的孵化项目的？

I wanted to ask how you guys think about incubations like tempo.

当我看Atlas，看Jeff和团队做的那些事时，你有没有想过，哪怕是你当初对Atlas最疯狂的预期？

When you look at when I look at Atlas and what Jeff and the team have done there, you think even in your I I don't know, kind of like the most wild projection that you had early with Atlas.

比如说，嘿。

Like, hey.

说不定哪天美国有四分之一的上市企业，都能用这个平台搭建起来，

Maybe someday a quarter of the of the c corps in The United States could be, you know, built on this platform.

换以前谁都会觉得这简直是天方夜谭，但现在我们真的做到了。

Anybody would have said that was insane, and yet here we are.

乔希，我其实也不知道该说什么，只能说我们一直很用心在做这件事。你们也都清楚，创业路上要遇到太多难题了，我们只是认真去把这些问题一个个解决掉。

Josh, I'm not sure what to say really, except we just try to pay a lot of attention to the I mean, you guys know, there's a lot of pain points that go into starting a company, and we just try to take them seriously.

而且说真的，做成这些事很大程度上就是认准一个方向，长期坚持往下走。

And then, you know, it's it's the line you know, so much of so to these things is just a long obedience in the same direction.

你看啊，现在大家都觉得Atlas是突然爆火的成功项目，但其实我们当年推出Atlas的时候，我记得是——

Like, Atlas is now this great overnight success, but we launched Atlas, I think,

"突然爆火"可拉倒吧。

in Overnight success.

2014年，说不定是2015年上线的。

2014, maybe 2015.

这都深耕了十多年，一点点攒出来的成绩啊。

So, you know, ten years of of of compounding.

而且现在，它已经达到了相当可观的规模了。

And, yeah, now now it's at some pretty meaningful meaningful scale.

你看，我觉得Tempo大概也会走同样的路——说到AI这个话题，我们听起来可能有点不着边际，但事实就是……

And, you know, look, I I I think Tempo will probably have the same shape where we we think it's I mean, to again, to this AI discussion and us sounding a bit unwurred and untethered.

我觉得未来世界肯定需要能支持每秒数十亿笔交易的平台，可现在没有任何支付系统能做到这一点。

Like, I think the the world is gonna need platforms that support billions of transactions per second, billions of transactions per second, which no payment rail or platform does today.

但就算成功了，也不会是一夜之间的事。

But it's even in the success case, it's not gonna be an overnight thing.

得花个五六年，甚至七年，那时候大家才会突然说：‘哎，Tempo怎么就这么一夜爆红了？’

It's gonna be, you know, five, six, seven years, and then maybe we'll we'll have conversations about how, you know, tempo suddenly became a an overnight success or something.

但话说回来，这事就这么定了。

But done.

我觉得帕特里克就像鱼在水里，根本察觉不到水的存在。

I think I think Patrick's a bit the fish in water who can't, you know, who doesn't know things are wet.

我的看法是，做新产品千万别被MBA思维捆住了手脚。

My framework would be you can't get too MBA brain about new products.

你不能光靠一个表格，说目标市场有多大，就凭这个来分析问题。

You can't have your spreadsheet that's like, oh, the TAM is this and just, like, reason about things

是的。

Yeah.

你绝对别说‘我们要占全球GDP的1%’这种话。

You should never say we want 1% of global GDP.

我们可不是那种人。

Not a we're not a guy.

当然不是。

No.

没错。

Exactly.

你啊，

You

从来不会等。

guys never wait.

你们从来没这么讲过？

You guys never pitched that?

嗯，那些公司，天啊。

Well, companies Wow.

我们其实从来没拿GDP来衡量过Stripe，直到有一天突然意识到：等等。

We actually never thought about Stripe in GDP terms until one day we realized, oh, hang on.

哦，我明白了。

Oh, I can see.

你不能那样做。

You can't.

这真是个重要的教训，因为太多人了，真的。

That's such an important lesson because so many so many, like Yeah.

很多创始人，你见过多少份这样的融资演示文稿？

Many founders, how many pitch decks have you seen everyone

我们就像Stripe。

We're like Stripe.

十年内。

In a decade.

对啊。

Yeah.

他们就说，没错。

They're like, yeah.

我们只需要1%的份额，

We just need 1%,

而且这

and it's

有点儿成梗了。

kinda it's a meme.

你可以回溯到Stripe早期的网站，但我们一直专注于为开发者提供支付服务，优化使用体验。

You you you you can go back in the wayback machine and find the early Stripe websites, but we're very focused on payments for developers and making experience good.

但我真正想说的是，我

But where I'm going is I

我觉得你得

think you have

从产品细节出发去思考。

to reason in product specifics.

所以再说一遍，我觉得任何一家NBA公司都会告诉你，企业注册和核心业务根本搭不上边。

And so, again, I think any NBA would have told you that, the adjacency of, you know, incorporation makes no sense.

这跟我们真正的竞争优势一点关系都没有。

It's not related to, you know, what's our right to win.

那些都是别人随口说说的。

It was all these things people say.

但你要是真去跟创业者聊聊，就会发现：‘这可是我创业路上遇到的最大难题。’

Whereas you actually go talk to founders or like, guys, it's like, this is the single biggest issue I run into starting my company.

同样，说到Tempo，还有我们考虑的孵化项目，我们真正想解决的是一个实际问题——就像我们在信里提到的Bridge，它本身没问题，问题是出在区块链拥堵上。你知道的，现在这些区块链既被用来炒 meme 币，也被拿来干正经的支付业务。

And similarly with tempo and just as we think about incubations, we're trying to solve a real problem here where we talked in the letter about Bridge having operational issues, not because of Bridge, but because of blockchain congestion, where, you know, you have coins that are, or blockchains both used for kind of meme coin trading and also serious real world payments.

所以我们只想要低延迟、高吞吐的支付系统，而且未来给代理们用，还得再提升好几个量级。

And so we just want low latency, high throughput payments, and we're gonna need much higher throughput for the agents.

但不管怎样，你得用非常具体的产品视角来思考。

But, anyway, I think you have to reason in very specific product terms.

对。

Mhmm.

在解除代理商业限制这件事上，你对哪些具体产品最感兴趣？

What specific products are you excited about in the unhobbling of agent commerce?

我们在信里其实已经梳理了代理商业的这几个层级。

We, we we laid out in the letter basically these these these levels of agentic commerce.

因为我觉得，AI领域里，人人都想卖个概念泡沫。

Because I think like everything in AI, people wanna sell a hype y store.

所以他们老说，机器以后会自己买光一切，都不用问你意见。

And so they, you know, talk about how the the machines will buy everything, you know, without even consulting you.

但其实呢，这种事离我们还远着呢。

And, people aren't actually you know, that that seems far off.

大家对这个真没那么兴奋。

They're not that excited about that.

是的。

Yeah.

你可以从最基础的问题开始问：我们为什么要这样填表呢？

You can start from just the basics of why are we filling out forms like that?

你刚才提到过商业的演进过程。

You know, you were talking about the progression of commerce.

我为啥不能直接发个链接给ChatGPT，让它帮我下单？

Why can't I just send something to, you know, a link to chat GBT and have it buy us?

或者，我为啥不能做点比关键词搜索更高级的搜索？

Or why can't I search, you know, outside of, you know, just doing a basic keyword search or something like that?

所以，Stripe正在做的很多工作，就是搭建底层基础设施。

And so a lot of the work Stripe is doing is building the infrastructure.

我们正和所有你熟悉的大型零售商合作，比如Etsy、Shopify、Best Buy、Walmart这些，把他们的商品目录整合进AI应用里。

We're working with all the big retailers that you would expect, the, you know, Etsy's and Shopify's and Best Buys and Walmart's and folks like this to make product catalogs viable within the AI apps.

这背后其实有大量枯燥的API、协议和基建工作，但说真的，我们特别喜欢干这些。

And there's basically a ton of boring API and protocol and infrastructure work, which, you know, we love.

这就是我们的生意。

That's our business.

但人们就是想在AI应用里直接购物、发现商品、完成购买。

But people just want to be able to do shopping, do discovery, do purchases within the AI apps.

也许更抽象一点说，我们之前一直在聊具体的智能代理购物，但还有一个更普遍的问题：代理技术会怎么改变软件本身。

And maybe just more kind of abstractly, you know, we've been in this kind of the specific agent commerce thing, and then there was just sort of the the general question of how software will change because of agents.

而且

And

我一直在

I've been

琢磨这事，感觉软件以后可能会变得跟披萨差不多。

thinking about it, you know, a bit maybe software becomes a bit like pizza.

也就是说，过去软件是

That is to say, you know, you software historically has been

有人会说，软件可不像披萨那样创造出来的。

created Not like pizza, some would say.

几个月甚至几年前就准备好了

Months, years beforehand

明白了

Okay.

然后冻干处理，或者你等到要用的时候再临时搞定

And then, you know, freeze dried and the or whatever you you you prepare it at the sort of moment of consumption.

但其实呢，软件应该像披萨一样，得在用的那一刻现做现烤

But we're actually gonna you know, software should be, like pizza incentives, should be cooked right then and there at the moment of use.

所以这是一种根本性的转变——你不再想要那种大规模工业化生产的软件

And so it's this act this quite fundamental shift where you don't want mass produced industrial scale software.

你想要的是专为你在那一刻量身定制的软件

You want bespoke custom software made for you that moment.

这跟以前的做法完全不一样

That's and that that's very fundamentally different.

到目前为止，软件的商业模式一直被认为是：前期投入固定成本，然后无限变现、能赚多少算多少，这就导致了赢家通吃的局面

It's kind of the the, you know, the the the up until now, the the economics of software have been, you know, conceived of as fixed cost and then infinitely monetized or monetized as much as possible, that has these kind of winner take all dynamics.

但一旦涉及到推理成本和定制化生成，情况就完全不一样了。

But once there are inference costs and custom creation involved, it really shifts.

这简直就像一种非瓦尔拉斯式的软件模式，说实话，我也说不准。

It's kind of the non Walrasian software regime and just I don't know.

我也不太确定它会走向哪里，但我感觉它一定会变得很不一样。

I I don't quite know where it goes, but, I think I think it's gonna look very different.

最后一个问题是：

Last question.

披萨上放菠萝，你支持还是反对？

Pineapple on pizza, yes or no?

爱尔兰人特别爱吃加菠萝的披萨。

Ireland was was big into pineapple on pizza.

爱尔兰可不是什么菠萝生产大国。

Ireland, not a big pineapple growing country.

我承认这点，但他们披萨上的菠萝确实多得离谱。

I will concede, but a lot of pineapple on the pizza.

美好的回忆。

Good memories.

香蕉市场里占了很大一部分。

A very large fraction of the banana markets.

别忘了。

Don't forget.

真的吗？

So Really?

我们在那些根本不长的水果上，表现得比实力强多了。

We punch above our weight in fruits that don't grow there.

这就对了。

There we go.

这就对了。

There we go.

我超爱

I love

这一轮太精彩了。

The round is exciting.

是的。

Yeah.

整体销量增长确实让人兴奋，但我们更想敲钟庆祝一下你们卖出了多少本书。

The the the overall growth of volume is exciting, but we wanted to hit the gong for how many books you guys are selling.

对啊。

Oh, yeah.

你能给我们说说具体数字吗？

Can you give us can you give us the the numbers there?

这个规模真不小。

Scale of that operation.

Stripe Press 呢，其实我们在信里提到过，我们卖出了第一百万本书。

Stripe Press just well, actually, we we have in the letter, we sold our millionth book.

但事实上，自从

But in fact, since

太惊人了。

Incredible.

不是的。

No.

你听好了。

Look.

书，我们其实已经卖出了第一百一十万本。

Book book books, we actually now sold our one point one millionth book.

下一本书卖到两百万时，我们再敲一次钟。

We'll go through the next Gong at two.

不过……

But

十亿零二本。

1,000,000,002.

我们特别爱书，而且这些书特别抗AI冲击。

We we love books, and they're they're very they're very AGI proof.

哦，是啊。

Oh, yeah.

不。

No.

我们一直是Stripe Press系列书籍的铁粉，看了好多本。

We we've been a huge fan of so much of the Stripe Press catalog.

虽然没全读完，但我一本一本地收，慢慢在看。

I haven't read them all, but I'm collecting them one at a time, and I'm working through them.

每次新书出来都像个小庆典，我们特别喜欢。

And every time one drops, it's always a moment, and we love them.

谢谢你们做的一切。

So thank you for everything.

很高兴有你们来，也恭喜整个团队——

Great to have you guys on, and congratulations to the whole team on on

不。

No.

恭喜你们！

Congratulations to you guys.

太厉害了！

Incredible.

TBPN 是一家超棒的初创公司，看到你们一路成长真的特别酷，

T TBPN is an amazing startup, and it's super cool to see you guys grow and

基于

Built on

Stripe。

Stripe.

基于 Stripe。

Built on Stripe.

流媒体世界和我们这个领域的需要。

Streaming world and our sector needs.

在 Stripe 上注册成立的。

Incorporated on Stripe.

用 Stripe 搭建的。

Built on Stripe.

我们的第一个

Our first

我们接的第一单广告，是在一场现场大会上做的口播。

our first ad deal ever was a live read at a live conference.

我记得收了50美元，然后发了个 Stripe 支付链接给人家。

I think we charged $50, and I put and I sent someone a Stripe link.

哦，你们在说2025年的促销是史上最快的吧。

Oh, we're talking about the 2025 promo being the fastest ever.

对。

Yes.

反馈。

Feedback.

不过嘛，你们得来参加我们内部的 Stripe 分享会才行，这样

But, well, we'll have to have you to our to our to our internal Stripe show, so

我们之后再联系你。

we'll follow-up back.

太好了。

Great.

好嘞。

Yeah.

我们很快再跟你聊。

We'll talk to you soon.

祝你剩下的时间愉快。

Have a great rest of your day.

恭喜啊。

See Congratulations.

谢谢各位。

Thanks, guys.

干杯。

Cheers.

再见。

Goodbye.

感谢您收听这期 a16z 播客。

Thanks for listening to this episode of the a 16 z podcast.

如果喜欢这期节目，别忘了点赞、评论、订阅，给个评分或写个评价，再分享给你的朋友和家人。

If you like this episode, be sure to like, comment, subscribe, leave us a rating or a review, and share it with your friends and family.

想听更多节目，欢迎前往 YouTube、Apple Podcast 和 Spotify。

For more episodes, go to YouTube, Apple Podcast, and Spotify.

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Follow us on x at a sixteen z, and subscribe to our Substack at a16z.substack.com.

再次感谢收听，咱们下期节目见。

Thanks again for listening, and I'll see you in the next episode.

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This information is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any investment or financial product.

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