马丁·什克利谈人工智能、制药业与真正重要的事

你知道吗，这类转变往往在你眼前悄然发生，你一时半会儿还感觉不到，但它们确实在悄悄进行。

And, you know, the those types of things, those transitions start to happen before your eyes, and you don't necessarily feel it or notice it right away, but they do happen.

我不确定Max 7会变成什么，但迟早你会看到Lag 7的出现。

And and I don't know what max seven's gonna become a lag seven, but eventually, you're gonna get the lag seven.

是的。

Yeah.

说到Meta，你确实能看出来他们是真正在玩大的——砸几十亿美金请亚历山大·王、丹尼尔·格罗斯、纳特·弗里德曼这些人，这阵势摆在这儿呢。

You could to your point on meta, I mean, you could tell they're a live player by them, you know, in the arena, you know, paying billions of dollars for Alexander Wang, for Daniel Gross, for Nat Friedman.

苹果可不会这么干。

Like, you like, Apple's not doing that.

对。

Yeah.

他们有钱啊，几乎被iPhone撑得坐拥金山银山，可就是不愿意放手去搏。

Could attract the they have the money to they're almost sitting on a resource curse of of I mean, of the iPhone, but but not willing to

是的。

Yeah.

用来回购股票。

To make buybacks.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，为啥要回购股票呢？

I mean, why do buybacks?

如果你没法选出赢家，再说，这听起来可能有点奇怪或者傻，但要是换作我，我真选不出谁是赢家，也不知道该投哪家公司。

If you can't pick the winner, and again, this may sound strange or stupid, but if it were me, I can't pick the winner, I don't know what company to buy.

你可以每家买点，拿个百分之五或百分之十，直接给红杉或者a16z，给一百亿美元，你们去帮我们投吧。

You can buy five or 10% of each of these, you could give sequoia or a16z, here's a $100,000,000,000, go invest it for us.

从历史上看，回购股票简直是最蠢的举动。

Doing buybacks is like historically the worst thing you could do.

我的意思是，这简直等于承认：你根本不知道自己在干嘛？

I mean, it it really is kind of this admit admission that you don't know what you know?

你其实就是不知道该怎么用这笔钱。

You kinda don't know what to do with the capital.

你根本不知道未来会往哪儿走。

You don't know where the future's heading.

这其实是我平时搞的那些金融操作。

It's a financial it's kinda stuff I do.

就是那种特别金融工程、很技术流、没啥创新的东西。

Like, it's a very financial engineering kind of nerdy, you know, not that innovative thing.

这其实也反映出他们的业务出了问题，我觉得他们根本推不出新产品。

And it kind of like you know, it's indicative of of of their business, I think, being sort of like, can't release new products.

就老是把旧产品换个壳重新卖。

They're just refreshes the same old products.

他们这几年搞的新东西，除了AirPods，其他的都挺烂的。

You know, air all the new stuff they did has sort of been bad other than AirPods.

我觉得，不光是他们，其他公司也会这样。

So I I feel like, you know, it it's also gonna be other other companies.

你懂的。

You know?

微软现在的处境也不太妙。

Microsoft sort of also sitting on a perch that's not great.

毕竟你想啊，他们主要就是做操作系统软件的。

I mean, you know, they make OS software.

现在大家哪里还专门需要单独的操作系统啊。

Don't need OS software anywhere.

就算做办公工具吧，也是这样。

You make office tools.

你可以用Vibe Code之类的工具搞定，等等等等。

You could vibe code those, you know, etcetera, etcetera.

这有点像，你知道，那种处境其实挺危险的。

It's kind of like, you know, that's sort of a dangerous perch.

我倒不觉得Excel会出什么事，但我感觉吧，大家其实有点担心整个Mac生态可能都会遇到麻烦，说不定未来真的是硬件为王。

I don't I don't think anything's gonna happen in Excel, but I I feel like, you know, there is a fear that all of Mac seven could be could be in trouble and that, you know, maybe it is hardware that rules the future.

对。

Yeah.

我们每周都能看到，像Anthropic、OpenAI这样的公司，对其他初创企业甚至大公司构成威胁。

We we we see, you know, Anthropic OpenAI, threatening startups or even very big companies on a seemingly weekly basis.

你知道吗？前几天，传奇投资人吉尔发了一条推文，说如果你在做AI相关业务，最好考虑在未来18个月内把公司卖了。

Know, a lot Gill, legendary investor tweeted out the other day, something like, if you're a company in AI, if you're an AI company, consider getting sold in the next eighteen months.

这恰恰说明了这些巨头有多大的话语权。

You're just speaking to the power that these big companies have.

我觉得更大的问题是，AI这场平台变革，到底会像互联网那样，让应用层公司赚走大部分价值，还是会更像云计算，由底层硬件掌握更高利润——就像现在NVIDIA那样。

I think there's also just a broader question as to whether the AI sort of platform shift will look like the internet in that application companies will accrue a lot of the value, or if it'll look more of like the cloud in the sense that maybe the hardware layer has the better margins, you know, like we're seeing with NVIDIA right now.

是啊，没人说得准，但我认为软件还没到死的时候。

Yeah, nobody knows, but one thing I think is that software is not dead yet.

对。

Yeah.

而且我们做的就是金融类软件。

And I think that, you know, we we're making this financial software.

我们已经埋头干了两年了。

We've been working at it two years.

我们还处在测试阶段。

We we sort of still in beta.

收入已经不错了。

We have some nice revenue.

快盈利了。

We're almost profitable.

还没正式上线呢，这东西很多人都想做。

We haven't launched it yet, and it's this sort of, know, many people try to make this thing.

有点像要干掉彭博终端。

It's it's sort of a Bloomberg killer.

‘干掉’这词儿有点重了。

You know, killer is a strong word.

彭博这玩意儿垄断了四十年，它能撑这么久，是因为真不是一般人做得出来，客户对它的要求也极高——我刚跟一个客户坐下来聊过。

You know, Bloomberg's been this like software monopoly for forty years, and and the reason it it works is because it's actually very hard software to make and your customer expects I was just sitting down with a customer.

他查个债券，价格就必须准，一点都不能错。

He expects the bond prices when he looks up a bond to be right.

而且你知道，债券这种东西，像Perplexity Finance这样的应用，90%都没法提供，华尔街一半甚至六七成的业务都跟债券相关。

And know, bonds are something that like 90% of these apps like Perplexity Finance, for example, doesn't have know, half of Wall Street or even 60 or 70% of Wall Street's related to bonds.

如果你连债券价格都没有，光靠感觉写代码，那想接入一个债券API，光签合同就得花六个月。

And if you don't have your bond prices in there and you vibe coded it, well, a bond API player takes six months to do a contract.

这些公司简直太懒散了。

Like these guys are so sleepy.

他们压根不想跟你打交道。

They don't wanna talk to you.

他们甚至都不想拉新客户。

They almost don't want a new customer.

如果你要查债券价格，就得确保——比如你查一只法国债券的时候，数据必须准确无误。

And if you want Bond prices and you have to like make sure, oh, when you look up this French Bond, it's correct.

这种级别的精准度和细节把控，根本不是靠‘凭感觉’写代码能搞定的。

Like that's something that like that kind of taste and that kind of like attention to detail, it's just not something you can vibe code.

这事儿真的太难做对了。

And it's so hard to get right.

花旗的客户可不会靠感觉随便写个程序。

A customer at Citadel, he's not vibe coding something.

他是真想买点东西。

He wants to buy something.

而且他要的是那种能一直稳定运行的产品。

And he wants to buy something that works all the time.

要是出了问题，他肯定要找人发火，然后立马把生意转给别人。

And if it breaks, he wants to yell at somebody and take his business somewhere else.

这才是软件该有的样子，人与人的关系也特别关键。

That's the kind of thing you get out of software, and the relationships matter.

比如我那个特别棒的彭博销售代表萨尔，这类人才是真正能卖动软件的。

Sal, my wonderful Bloomberg rep or whatever is, you know, those kinds of things sell software.

所以我觉得，所谓的恐慌，其实大多数都没大家想的那么严重。

So I, I, I sort of think the panic is, is most panics aren't, you know, really what, what you expect.

肯定会有些变化，但我认为，有些恐慌其实是没必要的。

Something's gonna change, but I, I think some of this panic is, is unrealistic.

再说回彭博的例子吧，我们跟一千八百多家新闻机构都有合作关系。

And then, you know, it, again, you know, going back to like, you know, the Bloomberg example, we have like 1,800 news relationships with news companies.

如果你自己随便搞搞，我见过有人就搞了五个。

And, you know, if you vibe coded it yourself, I've seen people do this, they get five.

但交易员在乎的是那第1713家新闻源，它可能直接毁了他的投资组合。

And it's like, well, the trader cares about the seventeen hundred and thirteenth news source that's gonna screw up his portfolio.

他才不关心那几个人人都知道的主流媒体呢。

He doesn't care about, you know, the five that everyone know about.

我觉得吧，随意开发确实挺棒的，能省点开发成本，或者提升软件的某些能力。

So I feel like, you know, vibe coding is kind of it's it's a fantastic thing, you know, where where you can cut your software costs a little bit or just raise the, you know, the ability of your software.

但它替代不了营销和销售。

But it doesn't replace marketing and sales.

也替代不了产品设计和品味。

It doesn't replace product and taste.

更替代不了人与人之间的关系，还有那些想要高质量软件的客户。

It doesn't replace, you know, personal relationships, and it doesn't replace the customer who who wants to to have really well made software.

它可能会提升你的竞争力，但你看，软件股跌得这么惨，这反而是入手的好机会。

It may it may increase your ability to compete, but it it's, you know, I I feel like, you know, the changes that, you know, where where like software stocks have have dropped like a rock, those are probably opportunities to buy.

我觉得，具体看哪只股票，市场上确实能淘到一些便宜货。

I and I feel like, depending on the stock, can you can get some bargains out there.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

这确实让人挺振奋的。

That's, that that that's encouraging.

我想换个话题，聊聊生物技术和制药行业。

I I want to shift to biotech and pharma.

如果你现在要创办一家制药公司，你打算往哪个方向走？

If you were building a pharma company today, I'm curious what you might pursue.

这算是其中一个方向的问题。

That's sort of one range of questions.

另外我很好奇，你之前那个关于多肽的辩论，TBPN，我们特别喜欢。

The other thing I'm curious to get into sort of, you you had this great peptide debate TBPN, which we loved.

现在这玩意儿好像风靡一时，而且只会越来越火，可你居然对它持看空态度？

And, you know, it seems like that's all the rage and only going to be increasingly so, and yet it seems you're bearish on it.

还有GLP-1，这到底意味着什么？

And, and then also just GLP ones and and and and what what that means.

那你来聊聊吧。

So so let let let let you take it away.

是的。

Yeah.

我对此的信念再坚定不过了。

I couldn't have more I couldn't have higher conviction.

那些多肽概念全是扯淡。

The the peptide thing is all bullshit.

你懂的。

You know?

这完全是自己诊断、自己打针的药，可你根本一点都不了解。

It's it's, you know, self self diagnosing and self administering medicine that you don't know anything about.

我的天，这简直是疯了。

I mean, this look literally craziest thing ever.

对吧？

Right?

你得是脑子进水了才会这么干。

I mean, know, you have to be out of your mind.

你说是吧？

You know?

我懂，行吧。

And I understand like, alright.

你是帕特里克·卡尔森。

You're you're Patrick Carlson.

你是那种超级富豪。

You're you're a super billionaire.

你可能是我的投资人之一，比如纳瓦尔。

You're, you know, maybe one of my investors, Naval.

你知道的，你就是想自己掌控健康。

You know, you you kind of like, you wanna take health into your own hands.

你身边一堆医生围着你。

You have a lot of doctors around.

行吧。

Okay.

你这种情况是特例。

That you're a special case.

但你却想模仿他们。

But you wanna impersonate those guys.

我觉得，到这儿就该打住了。

I think that, you know, that's where that's where it sort of ends.

你知道吗，这些人最王牌的宝贝就是那个BPC-157药物。

I mean, you know, the the star, you know, the star asset for these guys is drug BPC one five seven.

我花了好几天研究这个东西。

I I spent a few days on this thing.

我浪费了好几天时间，占了我一年的1%，就为了看这个烂药，真是最差劲的药了。

I took few days out of my life, wasted 1% of my year to to to look at this stupid drug, and it's the worst drug ever.

没人真懂医药，除非你亲手成功做出过药。

And and, you know, nobody understands medicine unless you've actually made medicine successfully.

我第一个获得FDA批准的药，就是那时候。

My first I got my first FDA approved drug.

大概四五年前吧。

You know, it was like four or five years ago.

我们是三四年前拿到的加速批准，记得吗？

We got, you know three or four years ago, was it was like accelerator approval.

后来终于拿到了正式批准，这事儿挺棒的。

We finally got final approval, which which is cool.

加速批准其实是有条件的。

Accelerated approval is is actually contingent.

所以啊，我确实把一个药搞定了，通过了FDA。

So so, you know, I got a drug through the FDA.

能做成这种事的人没几个。

There are not that many.

每年全美国也就三四十个药能过FDA。

They're about 30 or 40 a year they got through FDA.

所以说，这事儿真没看上去那么简单。

So, know, it's a pretty pretty hollowed haul.

除非你自己亲手干过，不然你根本不知道这有多难。

And unless you've done that, you know, you really don't know what it looks like.

药物看着好像挺简单的。

Drugs are like seemingly simplistic.

你看我桌上这盒开瑞坦，心里可能就想：这我也能做啊。

You know, you look at, you know, this Claritin on my desk or something and you sort of say, Oh, you know, I could do this too.

但现实是，这事儿难到离谱。

And the reality is, you know, it's pretty freaking difficult.

实际上，有些人会问，这药能有多难做呢？

In fact, some people say, Well, how hard would it be to make this drug or something like that?

我说，你想想SpaceX火箭着陆的样子，就像用筷子精准接住，头朝下稳稳落地。

I said, Imagine the SpaceX landing like the chopstick or the landing on its head.

相比之下，新药研发简直太简单了。

Drug development makes that look easy.

你得在脑子里把自己缩到分子级别，纳米级，甚至埃级那么小，单位都得用纳米来算。

And you know, because I want you to, in your mind, shrink down molecule, the molecular, nanomolecular size, you know, where angstroms are your unit of length, you know, a 100 nanometer.

想象一下，有机分子里的原子，跟蛋白质里的原子互相作用，你真觉得自己能搞懂这些互动？

And imagine the atoms of, you know, some kind of organic molecule, and imagine those atoms interacting with proteins atoms, and you're telling me you understand what's going on there.

这事儿真没那么简单。

It's really not easy.

我看有人学了十分钟药理，就觉得自己成专家了，这话不是冲着Max去的，他本人特别友善。

I think when I see people do like ten minutes of pharmacology and they feel like they're experts all of a sudden, no offense to the guy who's debating, Max, who is a very nice guy.

我跟Max坐下来，花几个小时教他药理，真觉得他不该去替这种事站台。

Sitting down with Max and teaching him pharmacology over a few hours is like, to me, it's like, dude, you should not be advocating for this stuff.

比如说肽类药物，长期以来一直是制药行业最不想要的药物类型之一，因为它们的半衰期通常只有几分钟。

I mean, it's peptides for example, are kind of one of the lowest desired drug classes in pharma for the longest time because their half lives are generally in the minutes.

而GLP类药物其实就是拼凑出来的肽类混合物。

And GLPs are franken peptides.

他们把GLP和脂肪酸这些玩意儿连在一起，让药物的半衰期变得更长。

They take GLPs and they add these fatty acid, conjugate these different things that make the half life better.

结果就成了某种生物肽，说白了就是杂交药物。

And they sort of become biological peptides that are like, they're hybrid drugs basically.

安进公司自己也管这叫肽类药物。

Amgen called them peptides.

总的来说，肽类对制药公司来说简直是糟糕透顶的药物类别，因为我们需要的是半衰期长的药。

So peptides in general are just these terrible asset class for pharma because they have you need drugs that have long half lives.

BPC-7之所以不危险，是因为它注射后六十秒内就彻底分解了。

So BPC seven is not dangerous because it's it's gone within like sixty seconds.

你一打进去，它就完蛋了。

The time you inject it, it's it's dead.

所以它根本没时间发挥什么作用。

And so it doesn't have the time to do anything useful.

任何搞药的人都懂这个，但我觉得这根本不是药理或科学问题。

Any drug guy could tell you that, but I think what what this really is about isn't about pharmacology or science.

这其实是一场反抗。

This is about rebellion.

你知道吗，我就是个反叛者。

You know, I'm a I'm a rebel.

我懂这种感觉。

I get this.

我不想给辉瑞掏钱。

You know, it it's it's I don't wanna pay Pfizer.

我不想去看医生。

I don't wanna see my doctor.

我不想交保险费。

I don't wanna pay insurance.

我也不想为了这个去拿什么处方。

I don't wanna get a prescription from sorry.

全都滚蛋吧。

F all that.

你懂的。

You know?

这事我自己来搞。

I'm gonna do this myself.

我嘛，行吧。

And I okay.

你懂的。

You know?

我明白。

I get it.

我的意思是，你知道，我跟国会说‘去你的’可能挺疯的，但自己搞药这事，其实也一样疯。

I mean, I'm I you know, it's crazy that maybe it was crazy for me to tell Congress to go f itself, and and, know, it's just as crazy to go, you know, you know, make your own medicine.

但你说搞自制药，我觉得这简直是蠢到家了。

But, you know, DIY medicine, I'm like, this is the dumbest thing ever.

作为药企的人，我更想说的是——别搞情绪绑架，但真的，最近有人给我发消息，可能你在社交媒体上也看到过，关于一个西点军校的家伙。

So to me as a pharma guy, I would focus on you know, and this is where, like, you know, I I don't wanna tearjerk anybody, but, like, somebody sent me a message today or last few days, might have seen on social media about a West Point guy.

他是个硬核的军人家庭。

He was a strong military network.

他儿子刚去世了。

His son just died.

他另外两个孩子也得了同样的病，眼看也要撑不住了。

His two more sons or two more kids that have the same disease, they're gonna die too.

我刚当了爸爸，有个儿子。

I just had a baby boy.

你想想看。

Look.

为了孩子，你啥都愿意干，上天入地都行。

You'd you'd move heaven and earth for anything for your kids.

你说这世界上，到底有几个人懂怎么开发罕见病药物？

And, you know, how many people in the world know how to develop rare disease drugs?

我可是搞出过一个获批的药。

Well, I got one approved.

你懂的吧？

You know?

全球可能就一百来号人能这么说。

There there's, know, maybe a 100 guys on planet Earth that that can say that.

我真愿意去给这哥们儿开发个药。

And I'd happily, you know, try to develop a drug for this guy.

我因为一些政治原因，被医药行业拉黑了。

I got banned, you know, from the pharma industry for sort of political reasons.

但我还是想试试在欧洲搞，或者申请个特别许可。

I still might wanna try and do it in Europe or something or get a special exemption.

可问题是，有人正在死去啊。

But, you know, there are people dying.

你知道吗，成百上千的人正死于各种罕见病，还有无数种癌症。

You know, there are people dying of hundreds of rare diseases, tons of cancers.

去最难啃的领域里干吧。

Go to the go where the hardest stuff is.

去那些人最痛苦的地方，因为说来讽刺，那儿才是真有钱的地方。

You know, go where the people are suffering the most because, you know, that's where, you know, ironically, that's where the money is.

很长一段时间里，那些所谓的‘美容类’疾病根本赚不到钱。

And for the longest time, these kind of cosmetic diseases actually weren't moneymakers.

GLP类药物整整冷落了二十年。

And GLPs went around twenty years.

现在好多药企的人还在纳闷：怎么突然就火了？

And then finally, a lot of pharma guys are scratching their heads like, why now?

这些药早就存在了，可过去十八年里，大家对这类药都冷淡得很，觉得也就那样，直到最近才突然爆红——因为它们真的太牛了。

We've had these for a while, and they just finally got mainstream after eighteen years of like watching this drug class be kind of like, meh, you know, they finally broke through, because they are fantastic drugs.

过去在药企赚钱的路子，就是去攻克最凶险、最折磨人的绝症，真正改变一个人的命运，这才是赚钱的正道。

But like for the longest time, the way you made money in pharma was you went after the most heinous, horrible, terrible illness and made a change, made a difference in somebody's life, and that's how you made money.

我觉得现在还是这样。

And I think that that's still the case.

真的，现在依然如此。

You know, it's still the case.

你得去攻克最难的癌症。

You have to go after the toughest cancer.

杜氏肌营养不良症是我长期以来最关注的领域。

Duchenne muscular dystrophy has been a passion of mine for the longest time.

我第一家公司的名字就是以肌营养不良症命名的。

My first company was named after muscular dystrophy.

这可是绝症啊。

That's you know, it's a death sentence disease.

只要你能救下一个孩子，就能赚上一百万美元。

You could get a million dollars a kid if you save their lives.

天哪。

Wow.

我觉得埃隆，你知道，他本身不是制药公司，但他做Neuralink，干的其实是同一件事。

I think Elon you know, Elon's not a drug company, but he's he's sort of gonna do the same thing with Neuralink.

我觉得Neuralink迟早能值上千亿，甚至两千亿美金，因为那些病人太多了，他们就想能站起来。

I mean, I think Neuralink's gonna be a $100,000,000,000 plus, maybe even $200,000,000,000 company because those patients, and there's many of them, they wanna walk.

他们就想能说话。

They wanna talk.

他们想重新成为对社会有用的人，而埃隆正在让这一切变成现实。

They wanna be productive member of society, and he's he's making it happen.

再说一遍，每个病人恢复生产力，价值就是一百万美金，保险公司乐意掏这笔钱。

And again, that's that's a million dollars per patient productivity, which insurance is happy to pay.

所以我觉得，那些罕见病、阿尔茨海默病、要命的癌症——这才是该冲的方向。

So I feel like, you know, the rare the rare diseases, the Alzheimer's, the the terrible cancers, this this is where you go.

说白了，老办法还是老办法，没变过。

I mean, the the playbook hasn't changed.

我觉得吧，科学本身还是难得很。

I think that, you know, the science is still really hard.

我觉得AI在这儿能帮大忙，能冒出不少新点子。

I think AI is gonna help a lot there, coming up with new ideas.

说到底，制药这行就是靠点子吃饭。

Fundamentally, the drug game is an idea game.

你得整天琢磨，比如，要是抑制IL-1，会不会对阿尔茨海默病有用？

You know, you have to sit, toss and turn and say, I wonder if you inhibited, you know, IL-one, would that work for Alzheimer's?

不，我觉得它过不了血脑屏障。

No, I don't think it crosses the blood brain barrier.

炎症其实没那么关键。

Inflammation is not that important.

那如果我们换个做法呢？

But what if we did this?

你就这么不断想啊想，还没把药放到动物或培养皿里，脑子里就已经有主意了。

And you keep thinking and thinking and you have these ideas before you even put a drug into an animal or in a petri dish.

这本质上是个理论活儿，而AI真能干这个。

You know, it's a theory game and AI can actually do that.

你知道吗，它其实能飞快地筛选成千上万个想法，直接冒出点新东西来。

You know, it can actually zip through thousands of ideas and come up with something.

所以我觉得这儿真有东西可以搞。

So I I think there's something to work on there.

我觉得 maybe 是 Anthropic 这种公司去搞药，也可能是 OpenAI，或者别的谁。

And I feel like, you know, maybe it's Anthropic that's that does a drug company, maybe it's OpenAI or maybe somebody else.

但说到底，这事儿是能做成、也该做成的。

But like there there could and should be a way to make this work.

药企自己对新技术往往反应慢，不太愿意接。

The the drug companies themselves don't take to technology very easily or quickly.

你明白吗，他们可能真不是干这事儿的地儿，但你还是得是个药企才行。

You know, they're probably not the place to do this, but you still have to be a drug company.

我觉得这正是硅谷很多人搞不懂的地方。

And I think that's what a lot of the Valley kinda doesn't get.

他们总想着：咱们要颠覆制药业，但又不想真进制药业。

They're like, we wanna we wanna tackle the pharma industry without being in the pharma industry.

但事实根本不是这样。

And it's like, no.

你得去搞临床试验。

You you have to go do trials.

你得干那些没人愿意碰的活儿，这也让制药这行变得特别无聊、特别糟心。

You have to go do the stuff that nobody wants to do, and that makes drugs kind of boring and shitty.

所以我和维韦克俩人，在制药圈里简直就是外来户。

And that's why, like, Vivek and myself were like two big interlopers in pharma.

我们俩都不太受欢迎，原因很多，毕竟制药这行是老头儿们的天下。

And we're both kinda not loved, you know, for lots of reasons because, like, pharma is this old guy's game.

你知道吗，制药公司的CEO平均年龄都快六十了。

I mean, the average pharma CEO is, like, 60.

是啊。

Yeah.

制药圈里根本不可能出现像帕特里克这样的人，永远都不会有。

There's no Patrick calls in pharma, and there never will be.

你懂的。

You know?

说实话，当个创业者在这行里真不容易。

It's kind of, you know, a tough space to be an entrepreneur in.

这地方吧，挺高高在上的，你知道的。

You know, there's there's it's, you know, pretty ivory tower.

是的。

Yeah.

不过你们俩多多少少也算闯进来了，所以你们是特例。

Well, well, you guys were to some to some degree, so so it's you guys.

但我明白你的意思，确实存在这些障碍。

But but I but I hear you on the the barriers being there.

那咱们来总结一下之前的预测。

The so just to close loop on the predictions.

所以你的看法是，明年我们会发现多肽其实不靠谱？还是说，因为现在一堆公司都在拿钱，你觉得这整个泡沫迟早得崩？

So is your thinking that in the next year we'll sort of see that peptides don't really work or because a lot of companies are getting funded in this space, so you think it's just all gonna collapse?

我还挺好奇GLP-1这块儿的，今天礼来刚宣布和亚马逊合作，估值超过一万亿美元。

Then I'm also curious on the GLP-one side, Eli Lilly, they did just an Amazon announcement today, it's over $1,000,000,000,000.

你觉得这玩意儿能涨到五万亿美元吗？

Do you think it's gonna be a 5,000,000,000,000?

这市场到底能有多大？

Like how big can this get?

制药行业有个特别大的问题。

Drug drugs have a big, big problem.

我有个朋友跟沃伦·巴菲特聊过这事儿。

Friend of mine talked to Warren Buff about this.

他想把自己的药企卖了。

He wanted to sell his drug company.

那家公司是私有的。

It was private, privately held.

他想卖给巴菲特，结果巴菲特直接拒绝了。

He wants to sell to Warren Buffett, Buffett said no.

他说，制药业的问题就在于知识产权。

And he said, the problem with pharma is IP.

你懂的。

You know?

所以我们每十年就得重新搞一次商业模式。

So we have to recreate our business every ten years.

药一过专利期，我就得再去找下一个产品。

Drug goes generic, I have to go find another one.

你逗我呢？

Are you effing kidding me?

你明白吧。

You know?

你想想，要是OpenAI或者a16z，十年后他们的风险投资专利过期了，那会怎样？

So like imagine being OpenAI or or or, you know, imagine ten years after a16z, actually your patent on venture capital expired.

那你只能再去搞私募，或者转去做贷款，反正得换个活法。

You gotta go find a new business, go do PE or go do lending or something.

我刚有点起色啊。

It's like, I was just getting started.

正干得顺手呢。

I was just hitting my stride.

在制药行业，你真得换个行当干了。

In pharma, you literally have to go do something else.

奥兹empic再过一两年就要仿制了，这药其实挺厉害的。

And so Ozempic's generic in like a year or two, Ozempic's pretty good.

药物的问题在于，你做出更好的药，但很快就会碰到瓶颈——没人再研发新的降压药了，因为这问题早就解决了。

And so the problem with drugs is you make a better drug and you reach this asymptote where it's like nobody's making a better hypertension drug because we have solved that problem.

血压能降下来就行。

You can lower blood pressure.

根本不需要新的了。

You don't need another one.

一旦专利过期，这个病的治疗水平就 permanently 被抬高了。

And so once that patent expires, it sort of permanently has lifted the bar for that disease.

最终，GLP类药，说实话，已经完美了。

And eventually, GLPs, you know, they're perfect.

我的意思是，根本不可能有更好的了。

I mean, you really can't get a better one.

所以说到底，Ozempic迟早要出仿制药，Mounjaro也一样，价格可能就二十块四毛，但反正最后都会变成仿制药。

So at the end of the day, Ozempic going generic, Mounjaro eventually, it's, you know, $20.40 or something, but eventually going generic.

所以市场看的是长期资产价值、长期现金流。

So markets price long term asset value, long term cash flows.

所以礼来公司这次真麻烦了。

So Lilly's kinda screwed.

他们得想办法让产品一直火下去，你知道的。

You know, you know, they have to find a way to perpetuate, you know, their product.

其中一个办法就是搞生产制造。

And one of the ways you could do that is manufacturing.

但问题是，如果你想长期垄断，就得把药设计得特别难生产。

But the problem is you sort of have to design a drug that's hard to manufacture if you wanna keep it in the long run.

强生公司就想明白了，像开普托这类小分子药物，因为任何印度公司都能仿制，所以一上市没多久就变成仿制药了。

And J and J figured out how to do this where for the longest times, small molecules like Claritin go generic very quickly because any Indian company can make it.

但抗体药不一样，到现在才刚开始有人能仿得出来，还没完全被仿制药打垮。

But antibodies sort of even still haven't just now are starting to be able to get disintermediated by generics.

所以说，分子越复杂、生产越难，你就能赚更久的钱。

So like in some ways, like the more complex the molecule, the harder it is to make, the more cash flow you're gonna get out of it.

因为别人根本做不出来。

Because somebody else may not be able to make it.

专利一过期，就完了。

The patents expire.

制药行业专利期特别短，因为药得花十年才研发得出来。

They expire quickly in pharma because you have to develop the drug over ten years.

你本来有十七到二十年的专利保护，结果研发就耗掉一半，剩不了多少时间。

So your seventeen to ten twenty year patent life kinda gets cut in half because of your development timeline.

所以你真正能赚钱的，也就十年到十五年。

So you have ten, fifteen years of cash flow.

礼来公司太聪明了，把每款GLP药物一个接一个地推出，安排得恰到好处。

Lilly has brilliantly staged each GLP to come out one after another in this really smart way.

但总有一天，消费者和保险公司会说：我干嘛非得买什么GLP Max Pro Plus这种顶配版？普通仿制版的司美格鲁肽就挺好，3美元搞定，何必花250美元买那些花里胡哨的？根本没人认这些药企的品牌。

But at some point, the consumers and the insurers say, I don't need super GLP Max Pro Plus, like good old, you know, generic Ozempic works, it's $3 instead of super GLP Max Pro Plus, which is $250 consumers have zero brand identity with these companies.

根本没人关心这药是礼来、默克还是辉瑞生产的，大家只想要便宜的。

Nobody gives a crap that their drugs from Lilly versus Merck versus Pfizer, and they just want the cheap version.

我觉得这事儿真让这些药企头疼。

I think that sort of plagues these companies.

说实话，挺可惜的。

So I think that's unfortunate.

不过我觉得肽类药物这块儿会挺有意思，毕竟药之所以有FDA监管，就是因为有些‘江湖神药’确实能让人感觉有效。

I do think the peptide stuff, it's it's gonna be weird to see this happen because drugs are are the reason we have an FDA and it's good is because snake oil sort of works for people.

人们就是想相信点什么。

Like, they they people wanna think.

他们愿意去相信。

They want to believe.

所以如果你觉得BBC一五七对你有效，那你肯定不会停药。

And so if you think BBC one five seven is working for you, you know, you're not gonna stop taking it.

你挺喜欢它，觉得：嗯，这药对我有用。

You love it, and you think, oh, well, it works for me.

你可能会这么想，但你得看临床试验数据，可我没法看。

And and and you might think that, but you have to look at the trials, but I can't.

没人能说服大众，让他们相信统计数据真的重要。

Nobody can convince somebody, the populace that statistics matter.

你知道的，到时候冲击会特别大。

You know, it's gonna hit so hard.

你个人的反应，就算其实没效果，也不过是数据分布里的随机波动。

Your individual response, even though it's a non response, it's just random noise around the distribution.

你就是想相信，这药真的对你起了作用。

You wanna believe that it's relevant to you, that it changed something for you.

所以要打破这种想法，太难了。

So it's gonna be hard to defeat that.

我觉得监管才是解决这问题的办法，可我们现在这个环境，简直就是放任自流。

I think regulations are the way to defeat it, but we're in this regulatory environment that's really laissez faire.

我替那些药企感到难过，其实有个治疗亨廷顿病的药，前景不错，虽然不完美，但FDA直接给拒了。

I feel bad for it because there's actually drug companies, there's a Huntington's drug that was promising, maybe not perfect, and FDA rejected it.

亨廷顿病是种致命的遗传病，太惨了。

The Huntington's disease is deadly disease, horrible genetic disease.

药企砸了上亿美元研发这药，可那些正在受苦、等死的病人却用不上；反倒是像BPC-157这种没监管、根本没用的垃圾药，我随便就能打一针。

Companies spent a couple $100,000,000 making this drug, and the people who are suffering, dying from the disease can't get it, I but can get BPC one hundred fifty seven totally unregulated stupid medicine that doesn't do anything.

我随时都能给自己打一针。

I can go inject that.

这事儿真挺让人无奈的。

It's sort of tough.

我觉得这太离谱了。

Think that's terrible.

我觉得肽类药物其实挺安全的。

I feel like peptides are so safe.

这可能是他们唯一的优点了——你知道的，人们可能自己骗自己，觉得真有用。

That's their one benefit that, you know, maybe people will just trick themselves into doing it.

这就成了一种凡勃伦商品，你瞧，我吃这个、那个，还有别的。

It'll be this weird Veblen good where it's like, oh yeah, I take this, this and that.

这就是我的全套方案。

That's my stack.

其实它根本没效果，但你每个月花一千美金，心里却觉得踏实，有点安慰剂作用。

And it's it's like, it's not doing anything for you, but you're spending a thousand dollars a month on it and you feel better about it, and it gives you some placebo effect.

说白了，这确实是个生意，但我自己绝对不想掺和。

I mean, it's a business, it's not a business I wanna be in.

你知道，制药这行嘛，咱们先别管Neuralink，就当我是把每年一百万的生产力直接送给了这个人。

You know, business of pharma is, you know, again, Neuralink, you know, casting this pharma company for a second, I'm literally giving a million dollars a year of productivity to this person.

我等于省下了别人照顾他、喂他、帮他做所有杂事的开销。

You know, I'm cutting the costs of everyone taking care of them and feeding them and doing all this stuff for them.

现在他能去上班了。

Now they can work.

原本医疗系统每年可能为这个人花一百万美元，用来照顾他、维持他的生产力，现在反过来，你反而能因此赚钱，这简直太棒了。

And the medical system that maybe have been spending 1,000,000 per year per patient on this person and their productivity, you flip that around and it's an amazing, like beautiful thing that you will get paid for.

你要想赚钱，就得证明你真有value。

To get paid for something, you have to show the value.

如果肽类疗法没法证明效果，那确实能骗到一些人买单，但这有啥意思呢。

And if peptide, you can't show the value, yeah, you're gonna get some suckers to buy it, but that's not really exciting.

既然这行这么好做，我真想不通自己为啥要在这行当创业者。

So I don't know why I'd wanna be an entrepreneur in this space when there's, you know, it's easy, I guess.

这不就是那种直接面向消费者的营销套路嘛，靠忽悠也能搞出点需求来。

You know, it's like a go to market, go to consumer, you know, direct to consumer kind of thing where you can finagle your way into, you know, getting some demand.

但这种模式没法像礼来那样规模化，人家的产品是真的管用。

But this isn't going to scale to like the reason Lilly scales, this product really freaking works.

这才是赢的法子。

That's how you win.

所以，祝他们好运吧。

So I feel like, good luck to it.

我的意思是，我觉得这地方真没什么搞头。

I mean, I just don't think it's going to be a great place to play.

对。

Yeah.

我们之前做了一些AI生态系统的分析，最近又刚做了个医药行业的分析。

So we did some AI ecosystem analysis, and then we just recently we just did some pharma analysis.

我想最后提个有点跑题的问题，回想起你几年前采访劳拉·辛的时候。

I wanna end on a little bit of off the wall question, which is, harkening back to your interview with Laura Shinn a few years ago.

那场采访太棒了，你当时分析了SBF的案子，还给了他一些建议。

Excellent interview where you analyzed sort of, SBF's case gave him some advice.

我想做个思想实验：假设SBF能早点出来。

I'm curious to do a thought experiment, which is imagine SBF gets out early.

他运气好，获得了赦免，或者只是因为表现良好就提前获释。

He gets lucky, there's some sort of pardon, or he just, you know, he gets out on good behavior.

也许这有点不现实，但你就想象一下，他五年内就出来了，类似这种情况。

Maybe it's unrealistic, but imagine he gets out in next five years, something like that.

可能就十年吧。

A short short sentence, maybe ten years.

如果他真能出来，你觉得该给他什么建议？比如怎么洗白自己，或者重新融入社会？

What advice might you have for him in terms of, you know, a redemption arc or just reacclimating to to to society?

是的。

Yeah.

我和萨姆聊过。

I mean, I talked to Sam.

你知道的。

You know?

我挺喜欢他的。

I I I like him a lot.

我觉得他该放出来。

I think he should be out.

我跟特朗普政府那边也谈过这事，最难的是萨姆得让人觉得他是个普通人——可他好像一直没做到这一点。

I think the hard part here in having having talked to, like, even the Trump administration about this is the hard part is Sam has gotta show he's a normal guy, and I think he he's he's struggled with that.

你懂的。

You know?

他在很多方面显然不太像普通人。

He's obviously not that normal, you know, in a lot of ways.

咱们有几个人上过麻省理工？

How many of us go to MIT?

咱们有几个人创办过那么大的公司？

How many of us start a, you know, a huge company?

咱们有几个人一上来就把Anthropic当宠物养？

How many of us pick Anthropic as the first, you know, pet?

所以萨姆身上有种让人不放心的东西，他得真正展现出自己人性化的一面。

So there's something about Sam that people don't trust, and there's something about Sam that, you know, he's gotta really let his human side out.

但问题可能是，他根本就没有这一面。

And one of the problems here is maybe he doesn't have one.

对。

Mhmm.

你知道吧？

You know?

我不是说这有什么不好，但作为一个了解他人生轨迹的人——从小就是神童，被推上台当那个天才知识分子，被塞进一个接一个的数学营、MIT、Jane Street，这些地方，他可能根本没时间去当个普通人。我觉得，正因如此，才让人觉得这么别扭、这么不放心。

And and I don't think that I don't say that as a bad thing necessarily, but as as as somebody who understands his path in life, being a prodigy, being pushed on stage as as like this intellectual guy, and being shoved into this like different room to room math camp, MIT, you know, Jane Street, you know, all this stuff, he maybe didn't have the time to like be a normal person, and I think that that's what makes it so awkward and so untrusting.

人们看他，心里就想：这人我真说不准。

People look at him, they're like, I don't know about this guy.

这人身上有种说不出的不靠谱，他得拼命证明自己是个有血有肉的普通人，有真朋友、有真感情，大家才会心疼他。

There's something about this guy I don't trust, and he's gotta fight hard to make real, that he's a real dude with real life, with real friends, with real emotions, and then people will feel bad for him.

但在那之前，大家难免会想：这人会不会又来一套，骗我们一回？

But until then, it's like, how do we know this guy doesn't come and pull the wool over our eyes again?

说实话，虽然Anthropic这笔投资挺成功，但回头看看当初那篇公告，那些利润看着就像是要进他自己的口袋。

And I feel like, truth be told, as much as Anthropic was a successful investment, if you look back at that announcement, Anthropic was those profits seemed like they're gonna go in his pocket.

不是存户的，也不是FTX的，压根儿就不是别人的。

And, you know, not in the depositor's pocket, not in f not even in FTX's pocket.

所以你看这轮融资，明明是萨姆·班克曼-弗里德主导的A轮。

So, like, you know, if you look at the round, it was series a by Sam Bankman.

你懂的。

You know?

那时候，这其实是个明显的信号。

And it was like, well, at the time, that was the tell.

这确实就是当时的破绽，说实话。

That actually is how you would have told because Yeah.

这四亿美元到底是从哪儿来的？

Where is this 400,000,000 coming from?

普通人哪能有四亿美元啊。

I mean, most people don't have $400,000,000.

贝索斯也不会拿四亿美元去投一个项目。

You know, Bezos doesn't put $400,000,000 in deals.

不会。

No.

你知道的，扎克伯格这些全球顶级富豪，也不会随便砸四亿美元在一个项目上。

You know, Zoc doesn't put you know, these the rich guys in the world don't just drop 400,000,000 on a single deal.

可能就只有最大的那些风投公司了吧。

The biggest VCs, maybe.

但这数目还是太大了。

That's still like a lot.

是的。

Yeah.

那这家伙到底是哪来的四亿美金，说投就投？

So, like, how'd this guy show up with 400,000,000 to drop?

答案其实很明显。

And and the answer is obvious.

你懂的。

You know?

他是把所有人的钱都拿去赌了，这根本不对。

He took everyone's money to do it, and that's wrong.

而且，要是说，嘿，你几乎都能原谅他，如果……

And, you know, you could almost allow it if, like, hey.

这笔钱本来是要分给我们所有储户的。

It was gonna go to all all of us depositors somehow.

给我们每块美元还1.05块。

It's gonna give us a 105¢ on the dollar.

对吧？

Right?

行吧。

Okay.

你懂的。

You know?

随它吧。

Whatever.

我没要求他们去赌，但既然能让我得利，那我干嘛不拿？

I didn't ask for the gambling, but, you know, if it helps me, I'll take it.

这事儿现在倒怪到我头上了。

And that's kind of on my case.

我进监狱就是因为这事。

That's that's what I went to jail for.

所以你看，至少我把赚的钱分给了大家。

And so, you know, at least I gave I gave the profits to the to the people.

但我觉得，不管犯了多大的错、多严重的 mistake，总还是有救赎的可能。

But I think that, you know, it's no matter how bad, no matter how big of a mistake you made, there's always redemption.

关键是你得展现出脆弱的一面。

It's just you have to show the vulnerability.

你得承认：我搞砸了。

You have to say I fucked up.

就算你不直接说‘我搞砸了’，也得让人看到你的伤疤、伤口，哪怕只是流点血。

You have to say even if you don't say I fucked up, you have to show a scar or wound or or bleed bleed a little bit.

我觉得他呢，就是想拼命抗争，但就是跟人接不上头。

And I think that his his thing is like, you know, he wants to fight, but but he's not connecting.

而建立连接，真的太重要了。

And and connecting is so important.

我觉得他从小的环境——你知道的，MIT数学营、Jane Street那种生活——让他变成了一个让人很难同情的人。

And I feel like his upbringing, you know, his his his sort of like MIT math camp, Jane Street life has led him to this position where he's hard to feel sorry for.

你根本没法跟他产生共鸣。

He's hard to connect to him.

我觉得，如果他真能早点出来——当然，我是支持的——但大家一直都在问：这人到底是个什么样的真人？

And I feel like if he ever if he does get early, which, again, I'm I'm advocating for, but it's been met with this very stiff resistance of who really is this guy as a human?

你知道，特朗普那边的人回我的就是这个问题。

You know, that's the question I get back from from the Trump camp.

我觉得，只要他肯这么做，不光政界的人会同情他，全美国都会同情他，都会想给他一次重来的机会，因为他的潜力摆在那里。

I think that, you know, once he does that, not only will people in politics feel bad for him, America will feel bad for him, America will wanna give him a second chance because the promise is there.

这人明显是个天才。

The guy's obviously a genius.

他绝对是史上最顶尖的商人之一。

He's one of the best businessman ever.

但问题是，你怎么才能让人信服你？

But how do you take that and and give get the trust?

我喜欢这个人。

Get the I like this guy.

我真想支持他。

I wanna root for this guy.

他得好好想清楚这一点，他那么聪明，我觉得他有可能做到，但得经历一番内心的拷问。

That's what he's gotta focus on, and he's brilliant, so I think he might be able to do it, but it's gonna take some soul searching.

说不定还得吃点苦。

Might even take some pain.

是的。

Yeah.

他现在显然正在受苦，但我真希望他能挺过来。

He's obviously going through pain right now, but I'd love to see him out.

我真想看看他能为社会做些什么。我觉得，只要他能展现出人性的一面就行——有些人老说他是蜥蜴、是机器人什么的，但每个人心里都有人性。

I'd love to see what he could do for society, and and I feel like as long as he can be a human, which is you know, some people, we joke about them being lizards or robots or whatever, and there there's a human in everyone.

而且我觉得，这段经历说不定反而会让他真正蜕变，听起来可能有点疯狂。

And, you know, I think this experience may actually it's gonna sound really crazy.

这可能是对他们来说最好的事，毕竟，这种痛苦是认识自我的必经之路，是在监狱这种高压环境下被迫反思：我到底错过了什么？

It might actually be the best thing for them because, you know, it's the pain of of of learning who you are, the pain of going through this this pressure chamber that prison is and forcing you to reflect on, like, what what did I miss?

我到底是谁？这一切又意味着什么？

What did I what am I what what is this all about?

坐五年牢，出来之后，我听说已经有投资人早早排着队，等着投萨姆的下一个项目了。

And five years in prison and then coming out and and, you know, I've heard a rumor that there are investors who have already lined up for Sam's Next Thing.

我不是在开玩笑。

I'm not kidding.

我从很靠谱的人那儿听说的，金额大得吓人，他们愿意砸几亿甚至几十亿进去，就为了萨姆的下一个项目。

I've heard this from very serious people that and the numbers are, like, they're staggering, that they're willing to drop hundreds of millions or even billions on Sam's Next Thing.

所以很明显，这里面真有东西。

And and so, obviously, you know, there's something here.

就这么把一个如此独特的人生给毁了，你说可惜不可惜？我之前还老拿萨姆开玩笑呢。

And and to throw a life away, you know, that, like, such a and unique life away, you know, and I I was I was making fun of Sam.

你懂的。

You know?

你知道吗，我当时其实悄悄查了点东西。

You know, I was I was digging a little bit.

现在我觉得，他非得经历这么一遭，得跌到谷底，才算完成这场英雄之旅。

And now, like, you know, that I feel like, you know, he has to go through that journey, that hero's journey of, like, he's gotta hit rock bottom.

然后我想，也许等他出狱的时候，时机就到了。

And then I think, you know, perhaps, you know, the the time will be where he where he gets out.

可能是这一届政府，也可能得等下一届。

Maybe it's in this administration, maybe it's the next one.

但只要他能找到那份人性，找到那个全新的自己，我觉得他一定能迎来一场辉煌的回归。

But I I see I see a big glorious comeback if he can find this humanity, find this, like, you know, you know, this new new person.

对啊。

Yeah.

这真是个完美的收尾。

That's a that's a great note to to wrap on.

马丁，太感谢你来参加这个对话了。

Martin, thanks much so for coming on the situation.

很快见。

See you soon.

感谢收听本期的a16z播客。

Thanks for listening to this episode of the a 16 z podcast.

如果你喜欢这期节目，别忘了点赞、评论、订阅，给个评分或写个评价，再分享给你的朋友和家人。

If you like this episode, be sure to like, comment, subscribe, leave us a rating or a review, and share it with your friends and family.

想看更多节目，去YouTube、Apple Podcast和Spotify找我们。

For more episodes, go to YouTube, Apple Podcast, and Spotify.

在X上关注我们@a16z，或者在a16z.substack.com订阅我们的Substack。

Follow us on x at a sixteen z, and subscribe to our Substack at a16z.substack.com.

再次感谢收听，咱们下期节目见。

Thanks again for listening, and I'll see you in the next episode.

本内容仅供教育参考，不构成任何投资或金融产品的买卖或持有建议。

This information is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any investment or financial product.

本播客由第三方制作，可能包含付费推广广告、其他公司提及以及与a16z无关的个人。

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