Palantir首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普谈零和人工智能竞赛

我们曾是怪胎秀，为此奋斗了二十年，只为这一刻。

We were the freak show, and we spent twenty years for this moment.

我们正在做这件事。

We're doing it.

我们正在做这件事，我相信你和我一样享受这一刻。

We're doing it, and I'm sure you're enjoying this as much as I am.

我有三件事要说。

I just got three things to say.

愿上帝保佑我们的士兵。

God bless our troops.

愿上帝保佑美国。

God bless America.

各位先生，请开始你们的进攻。

And gentlemen, start your attack.

我们才是真正拥有决定性投票权的力量，那就是军事优势。

We are the power that actually has the decisive vote, and that is with military superiority.

如果硅谷认为我们会夺走这里每个人的白领工作。

If Silicon Valley believes we are going to take away everyone's white collar job here.

帕兰蒂尔正在做的最重要的事情，是确保美国士兵更有可能平安回家。

The most important thing Palantir is doing is to make sure that American war fighters are much more likely to come home.

如果我们想要超越世界其他地区，我们唯一的竞争优势是

If we are going to outperform the rest of the world, our single advantage is

硅谷有一种观点认为，它超然于地缘政治之外。

There is a version of Silicon Valley that believes it operates outside of geopolitics.

认为它所开发的产品是中立的。

That the products it builds are neutral.

认为大国竞争的规则不适用于软件公司。

That the rules of great power competition don't apply to software companies.

亚历克斯·卡普二十年来一直持相反观点。

Alex Karp has spent twenty years arguing the opposite.

作为帕兰蒂尔的联合创始人兼首席执行官，他开发了部署在中东战场上的技术，以及嵌入国防部的分析基础设施。

As cofounder and CEO of Palantir, he has built technology deployed on battlefields across The Middle East and analytics infrastructure embedded in the Department of War.

过去一年中发生的变化更难以忽视。

What has changed in the past year is harder to dismiss.

美国的行动展现出一种对手未曾预料到的精确性和主导力。

American operations have demonstrated a level of precision and dominance that adversaries did not anticipate.

卡普认为，这并非偶然。

Karp argues that is not an accident.

他给整个行业的警告同样直接。

His warning to the rest of the industry is equally direct.

如果人工智能公司不与国防体系结成同盟，国有化将成为政治上显而易见的选择。

If AI companies don't make common cause with the defense establishment, nationalization becomes the politically obvious move.

本次与帕兰蒂尔联合创始人兼首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普的对话，是在华盛顿特区的a16z美国活力峰会录制的。

This conversation with Alex Karp, cofounder and CEO of Palantir, was recorded at the a16z American Dynamism Summit in Washington, D.

C.

C.

博士。

Doctor.

卡普，终于能邀请到美国活力运动的创始人上台与我们同台，真是太荣幸了。

Karp, it is a pleasure to finally have the O.

G。

G.

在第四届年度峰会上。

American Dynamism founder on stage with us at the fourth annual summit.

我想，天啊，如果我们早有这个

I think, gosh, if Do we had this

你们没意识到那些是帮派手势吗？

you guys don't get that those are gang signs.

不，我觉得我们都明白这个暗喻。

No, I think we all got the reference.

梅迪在观众席上。

Mehdi's in the audience.

他没怎么做过那个动作。

He doesn't do that much.

他问：那是什么？

He's like, what is that?

这将是一场很棒的对话。

This is going be a great conversation.

所以我认为，如果我们七十二小时前就有这场对话，情况会非常不同。

So I think if we'd had this conversation seventy two hours ago, it would have been very different.

但当然，这段时间发生了大量新闻，所以我希望直接切入当前的新闻和世界正在发生的事情，因为帕兰提尔无疑是这个故事的一部分。

But of course, there's been a lot of news, and so I want to get straight to the news and what's happening in the world because Palantir is certainly part of that story.

上周末，美国

So over the weekend, The U.

和以色列

S.

在“史诗之怒”行动中轰炸了伊朗。

And Israel bombed Iran in Operation Epic Fury.

哈梅内伊已去世。

Ayatollah Khamenei is dead.

中东现在处于战争状态。

The Middle East is now at war.

你认为这种情况对西方的未来——你经常谈论的话题——以及美国的未来意味着什么？

What do you think the situation means for the future of the West, something you talk a lot about, and the future of America?

首先，我非常高兴能与你同台，也感谢在座的各位。

Well, first of all, I'm delighted to be on stage with you, and for many of you in this audience.

顺便说一下，我讲了这么多，嗓子快哑了。

By the way, I've been talking so much, I'm kind of losing my voice.

如果不是你，我可能早就取消了，但这也说明我们很高兴你没取消——顺便说一句，对在座各位来说，这可是我最期待的事，因为我是个内向的人。

I would have probably canceled on anyone but you, but that means we're glad Yeah, you're love to cancel, by the way, for those of you, because it's my favorite thing, because I'm an introvert.

只要有个借口就能取消，这一点帕兰蒂尔的人都懂。

Any excuse to cancel, as Palantirians know it.

但确实，你在台前幕后一直发挥着巨大作用，帮助了那些在国防科技领域、支持‘让美国获胜’或广义上有益的事物的人。

But yeah, you've been such a force in public and behind the scenes for, I think, helping people in the, broadly speaking, defense tech or Let America Wins or things that are good, broadly defined.

此外，我们在另一个话题上也立场一致，稍后可以聊聊：不要用条条框框束缚年轻人，因为他们神经认知方式各异——这正是我的热情所在，也应该是每个人的热情，因为你可以把我们这个伟大国家定义为：一个让所有在意识形态、思想、宗教，甚至神经认知上与众不同的人，都能来到这里，自由表达自我、拥有表达权利的地方。

And then we also align on something we could talk about later on, like the importance of not putting our youth in straitjackets because they're divergent neurologically, which is a passion of mine and should be a passion of everyone's, since you could define our wonderful and great country as a country where everyone who was divergent in ideology, thought, religion, or quite frankly neurologically, to this country to have a better place where they could express their freedom and had the right to, A, express what they thought.

公开表达和私下思考之间有着深刻的联系，第一修正案和第四修正案保障了你思考的权利，如果这一点失效，你还可以用第二修正案来捍卫它。

And there's a deep link between expressing what you think publicly and privately, first and fourth amendment, and being able to think it, and if that doesn't work, being able to defend it with the second amendment.

最后但同样重要的是，我们的开国先贤们并没有像我在德国生活多年时那样，把这些权利视为由其他官僚授予我们的东西。

And last not least, our founders did not structure these rights the way they are in, say, where I lived for a lot of my life in Germany as rights granted to us by other bureaucrats.

这些权利是来自更高存在赋予我们的、不可剥夺的。

They're given to us, they're inalienable from a higher being.

在我谈世界如何变化之前，我想说，我们有美国战士在战场上愿意牺牲生命，有些人已经献出了生命。

And I would just say before I get into how the world's changed, we have American war fighters on the battlefield willing to sacrifice their lives, some of whom have sacrificed their lives.

他们有家人和孩子。

They have families and kids.

孩子们和家人们不知道他们的亲人是否能平安归来，而我们，我知道在座的各位都明白，但我们应该公开和私下支持他们；对于那些不了解、或者太过娇生惯养而无法意识到这些人为我们所做的一切的人，我们应当公开谴责他们。

The kids and families don't know if their loved ones are coming home, and we, I know in this room, but we should publicly, privately support them, and people who are not aware or somehow so effing spoiled that they don't realize what these people do for us, we should publicly humiliate them.

每个人都在其中扮演着角色，尤其是我们这些正享受着代际、文化、智力与勇气优势的美国人。

And everyone has a role in that, and especially those of us who are riding a crest of intergenerational, cultural, intellectual, courage, advantage, which it is to be an American nowadays.

显然，我们不应忘记那些主要来自美国中部、却 disproportionately 遭受不公的战士们。

Obviously should not forget the war fighter who are disproportionately from the middle of our country and disproportionately have gotten screwed.

我非常自豪，Palantir公司正成为箭靶，我的意思是，有一半攻击我们的人。

And I'm proud, very proud, that at Palantir we get arrows and people, I mean half the people attacking us.

如果他们花两分钟在维基百科上查一下，至少了解他们所复述的那些论点，那就更好了。

It'd be good if they spent two minutes on Wikipedia, at least learning the talking points they're regurgitating.

但任何公司都难免会有一些合理的批评。

But there are some legitimate criticisms of any company.

但归根结底，Palantir正在做的、在座其他人正在做的、以及像你这样参与研发更致命武器的人们最重要的一件事，就是确保美国士兵更有可能活着回家，坦白说，那些试图伤害他们的人也知道，他们再也回不来了。

But at the end of the day, the fact is the most important thing Palantir is doing, and other people in this room are doing, and people like you and other people adjacent or ancillary to building more lethal and deadly weapons, is to make sure that American war fighters are much more likely to come home, and quite frankly, the people who are trying to harm them know that they won't be coming home.

在我看来，这就是阻止别人攻击我们的方法，然后再说说眼下正在发生的事。

And that's the way you stop people from attacking us, in my opinion, and then on the kind of leading up to what's going on.

但我认为，在座的人中，有些人非常支持，也有些人并不支持。

But I think that there are probably people in this room who are wildly supportive, and there are people who aren't.

很难否认，美国的威慑能力曾经被严重削弱。

It is hard to deny that America is exerting a deterrent capability that was eviscerated.

你可以喜欢或不喜欢。

You can like or not like.

这与忽视我们如今拥有一个其他国家似乎都不具备的威慑能力是不同的，而这背后有诸多原因。

That's different than ignoring we now have a deterrent capability that no other country appears to have, and that is for lots of reasons.

显然，这涉及作战人员、组织作战人员的将领、领导层以及总统。

Obviously, the warfighter, people organize the warfighter, the generals, the leadership, the president.

但一个常常被忽视、且这种忽视毫无道理的优势是：作战本身就是技术。

But one advantage that often gets overlooked for reasons that make no sense is, warfighting is technology.

我因为家庭原因在德国生活了半辈子，之后在那里完成了我的博士论文。

I spent half my life in Germany for familial reasons, and then I wrote my PhD there.

而二战后美国的崛起，美国能够赢得二战的原因，正是技术优势。

And then the rise of America after World War II, the reason America was able to win World War II, were technological advantages.

如果你看看‘午夜锤行动’中发生了什么，委内瑞拉发生了什么，以及目前在伊朗正在发生的事，你就会看到一个社会完全占据主导地位。

And if you look what happened in Operation Midnight Hammer, what happened in Venezuela, what's so far happening in Iran, you see one society just totally dominating.

那就是我们的社会。

That's our society.

现在，我总是和我的知识界朋友就这个问题争论不休。

Now, you could get into I'm always in fights with my intellectual friends about it.

他们说：但难道不是建立一个人人平等的法律体系会更好吗？

They're like, But wouldn't it be better to have a law based system where everyone is equal?

是的，理论上是这样。

Yeah, sure, in theory.

但在这个世界上，只有我们、中国或俄罗斯。

But in this world, it's us, or China, or Russia.

对。

Yeah.

我不确定你们对这些决定怎么看，但我真的相信，我们正在为更高的使命而工作——确保的不仅是美国，而是整个世界，我们拥有决定性的投票权。

And I don't know how you guys feel about those decisions, but I literally believe we're doing the work of a higher purpose by making sure, and not just for America, but for the whole world, that we are the power that actually has the decisive vote.

而实现这一点只有一条路，那就是军事优势。

And there is only one way to do that, and that is with military superiority.

当我提到军事优势时，我不是说我们在PPT上争论。

And when I say military superiority, I don't mean that we're arguing on a PowerPoint.

这意味着，你现在要思考的是：技术带来了什么？

It means, so now you get to what has technology done?

再说一遍，我认为每当像我这样的人谈论这个问题时，怎么强调都不为过——真正重要的是前线战士及其勇气，而我并没有忽视这一点。

Now again, I think whenever people like me are talking about this, you can't say enough that it's the warfighter and their courage, and I'm not doing that.

我就坐在这里。

I'm sitting here.

我们公司Palantir的员工遍布各地，我经常和他们交流，他们正亲身置身于危险之中。

And we have Palantirians all over, like I'm talking to them constantly, so they're putting themselves in harm's way.

而我呢，某种程度上也算，但并不是直接参与。

And I am, kind of, but not directly.

真正面临危险的主要是那些冲我大喊大叫的人，或许也有些人想朝我开枪。

It's mostly all the people who yell at me, and I guess maybe there are some people who want to shoot at me.

但在Palantir发展的整个历程中，软件的崛起意味着，那些只是提供‘牛排晚餐’式服务、明显属于寄生型的软件公司已经行不通了。

But in the lifetime of Palantir, there's been the rise of software, which essentially meant your software company that is supplying a steak dinner that's obviously parasitic is not cutting it.

这些公司正在被彻底淘汰。

Those companies are being eviscerated.

国防科技的崛起。

The rise of defense tech.

而现在，你需要一种融合了软件、硬件和人工智能的混合技术，三者缺一不可。

And now you have a hybrid software, hardware, AI, where you really need all three.

有趣的是，从投资角度来看，我认为在我们所有人都被大语言模型的过载压垮之前，最后剩下的公司将是Palantir。

Interestingly, from an investment perspective, I would say the last company standing before we all have to salute the overload of the LLM will be Palantir.

但主要是我们即将

But it's mainly We're going

进入这一点，

to get into that,

但主要是因为它的专属性、安全性和协同能力。

But I it's mainly because it's the specificity and the security and the orchestration.

但这些对在座的任何人来说都不一定有意义。

But none of that has to make any sense to anyone in this room.

我告诉你，现在我们的对手对此非常清楚。

I'll tell you what, it makes a lot of sense to our adversaries right now.

美国是怎么做到这一点的？

How is America doing this?

现在again，这些都是专业化的途径。

Now again, it's specialized ways.

这是二十五年、三十年的实战经验。

It's twenty five, thirty years of experience in fighting.

这是唯才是举。

It's meritocracy.

国防部是最具唯才之性的环境。

The Department of War is the most meritocratic environment.

它在韩国的整合早于我们社会的整合。

It integrated in Korea before our society did.

它是最受欢迎、最受尊敬的机构，也是美国唯一一个真正被所有人口群体所尊敬的机构。

It is the most popular institution and most revered institution, and probably the only institution in America that is actually revered by the American people across every demographic.

它之所以受到所有人口群体的尊敬，正是因为其唯才是举的特性。

And it's revered by the American people across every demographic precisely because it's been meritocratic.

如果你是非裔美国人，你在美國获得机会的方式就是参军。

If you were a black American, you got your break in America by going to the military.

如果你希望得到公平对待，而你来自一个群体，这个群体中有人参军，他们的生活因此改变，并为美国做出了崇高而美好的贡献，但他们回家后却发现美国并没有为他们挺身而出。

If you wanted to be treated fairly, and you were from a group that you felt demographic has somebody who is in the military, whose life was changed, and it did something noble and wonderful for America, they also have the experience of coming home and America not sticking up for them.

我们应该改变这种状况。

We should change that.

现在我们来看看硅谷。

Now you get to Silicon Valley.

我要传达的一个信息是，再次强调，我不打算具体点名任何人，因为如果硅谷认为我们会剥夺每个人的白领工作——也就是主要那些像我一样长大的、受过高等教育、上过精英学校或几乎算精英学校的、投票给同一政党的人——而你们却要损害军队的利益。

My one message for and again, without getting into specific people or because I'm like, if Silicon Valley believes we are going to take away everyone's white collar job, meaning primarily Democratic shaped people whom I grew up with, highly educated people who went to elite schools or went to schools that are almost elite who vote for one party, and you're going to screw the military.

如果你不认为这会导致我们的技术被国有化，那你就是个傻子。

If you don't think that's going to lead to nationalization of our technology, you're retarded.

你可能尤其傻，因为你智商高达160。

And you might be particularly retarded because you have a 160 IQ.

但这就是这条路的走向。

But this is where that path is going.

你不可能一边让所有人的工作都被技术取代，一边还指望被人们视为正当合理。

Like, you cannot have technologies that simultaneously take away everyone's job and then be perceived.

再次强调，这里幕后有很多微妙之处。

Again, there's a lot of subtlety here behind the curtain.

我深度参与了这些微妙之处。

I've been heavily involved in that subtlety.

它可以在哪里部署。

Where it can be deployed.

什么可以被部署。

What can be deployed.

美国军方与监控之间存在区别，尽管所有人都这么认为，但Palantir其实是反监控的公司。

There's a difference between US military and surveillance, and despite what everyone thinks, Palantir is the anti surveillance company.

我知道你网上认识的那个人觉得这不对，但每个技术专家都这么认为，所以我总是被迫参与我不想参与的对话。

I know your person online thinks that's not true, but every technical expert does, so I end up in every conversation that I don't want to be in.

但对我们这个行业而言，危险在于美国出现了著名的马蹄效应——人们唯一达成共识的就是：这无法养活自己，我们的行业应该被国有化。

But the danger for our industry is that America, you get a famous horseshoe effect where there's only one thing people agree on, and that's that this is not paying the bills, and our industry should be nationalized.

因此，在伊朗发生的这种社会利益，除了我认为，我怀疑伊朗人民终于觉得有人站在他们这边了，而这个人并不是本应喜欢他们的伯克利教职员工。

And so the societal benefit that is going on in Iran, besides the fact that I think, I suspect the Iranian people feel like finally someone's on my side, and it wasn't the Berkeley faculty that was supposed to like me.

这对你来说是一个重要的教训。

It's a big lesson for you.

是的。

Yeah.

因此，作为美国以及科技行业中的重要人物，我们必须找到一种方法，确保我们不仅仅在帕洛阿尔托受欢迎。

And so But then as America, and the people who are prominent in the tech industry, we have to find a way to make sure that we're not just popular in Palo Alto.

对。

Yeah.

我想回到你刚才说的一点，那就是要么美国赢，要么中国赢，要么俄罗斯赢，或者其他某个国家赢，这是一场零和博弈，而华盛顿的这些人似乎真的理解人工智能是零和的，但硅谷却不这么认为。

I want to get back to something you just said, which is that it's either Us winning or China winning or Russia winning or another country, that it's a zero sum game, and it feels like the people in this room in Washington really understand that AI is zero sum, but Silicon Valley doesn't.

硅谷不喜欢用零和的思维来看待问题。

Silicon Valley doesn't like to think in terms of zero sum.

他们更倾向于认为一切皆是正和博弈。

They like to think that everything is a positive sum game.

那么，你会如何向硅谷那些正在构建大语言模型、开发他们声称是前所未有的全新技术的人解释呢？

So how would you explain to the people in Silicon Valley who are, again, building the LLMs, building what they would say is a brand new, net new technology that hasn't existed before, and therefore it needs to be treated differently.

你对这些人会怎么说？

What would you say to them about this?

嗯，首先，我想稍微反驳一下。

Well, mean, first of all, by the way, I just want to push back slightly.

他们确实认为这是零和博弈，他们认为彼此之间是零和博弈。

They do think it's zero sum, they think it's zero sum versus each other.

所以他们确实在激烈竞争。

So they absolutely are fighting.

我会说，用我自己的话来讲，但我认为这是对的：最终会是芯片、本体论，我猜测最后只会剩下一家或一家半的供应商。

There will be, it's my own rhetoric, but I happen to think it's true, it's going to be chips, ontology, and I suspect in the end, one, one and a half providers.

他们假装不认为这是零和博弈，但你问问他们对竞争对手的看法。

They pretend they don't think it's zero sum, but then ask them how they feel about their competitor.

所以，这些人在为争夺主导地位而激烈厮杀，非常非常激烈。

So it's very, very I mean, these people are fighting very, very hard for the dominant position.

所以他们不明白的是，在这个世界上，这本质上是一场零和博弈。

So what they don't understand is in the world, it's zero sum.

但我认为硅谷的主要问题是，当美国决定‘好吧，我接触过很多政界人士’时，这将对你构成零和博弈。

But I actually think the primary issue in the valley is it's going to be zero sum vis a vis you when America decides, Look, okay, I interact with a lot of political figures.

我非常尊重他们。

I have a lot of respect.

我认为，当政客们意识到这是唯一能赢的问题时，这将变成一场零和博弈。

I think in some are when politicians figure out this is the one winning issue, it is going to be zero sum.

你的资金和公司将会被零和地国有化。

It's going to be your money and your company being zero sum nationalized.

所以这是他们不明白的部分。

So that's the part they don't understand.

帮助人们理解，你知道，要么我们像事实上那样制定规则——我更倾向于认为美国应该强大，这样我们才不必担心敌人，而不是把敌人妖魔化那种观点，所以我并不是极端的新保守派。

Helping people understand that you know, either we set the rules de facto like, I'm much more on America should be strong so that we don't have to worry about the enemies than our enemies are evil kind of thing, so I'm not super neocon.

作为一生中长期生活在海外的人，我发现这种文化中很难向人们解释：我们正处于一个竞争环境中，因为这里的一切都太好了，他们无法理解一旦落后，情况会有多么不同，美国将面临多大的变化，以及在法律、军事和文化上，我们承受的压力会有多大。

It seems to be very hard in this culture, as someone who's lived abroad a lot of my life, it's very hard in this culture to explain to people that we're in a competitive environment, because things here are so good, they don't understand how different it will be, and how much we will change, and how much the pressure will be on America, not just legally, but militarily and culturally, if we fall behind.

而其中一件事是，我个人认为，让人们改变的更好方式是：把这样的人带到爱荷华州，带到D。

And one of the things that, again, so I personally think the better way to get people to change is to, okay, bring people like that to Iowa, bring them to D.

C，向我们的美国政治领导人解释，为什么你能赚一亿美元，而爱荷华州的一名士兵却无法向妻子说明他拥有最先进的技术。

C, and explain to our American political leadership why you make $100,000,000 and why a soldier from Iowa can't explain to his wife he has the best technology.

然后穿过走廊，这典型是共和党人的思维模式；再穿过走廊，去跟进步派民主党人谈谈，他们的每一个选民都将失去工作。

And then go across the hall, so that's classically Republican shaped, then go across the hall and talk to progressive Democrats about how every one of their constituency is not going have a job.

然后离开，想象一下你将面临什么处境。

And then leave, imagine what's going to happen to you.

你知道，像我们这样一生大部分时间都在国外生活的人，比如在德国——一个卓越的文化国度，我们更能体会到美国这个实验是多么脆弱。

You know, the funny thing about those of us who've spent most of our life abroad, like in Germany, which is a phenomenal culture, we have a much better sense of how fragile this experiment is America.

它可能会出错，如果所有财富都集中到少数人手中，而这些人又似乎并不站在我们这一边，它就一定会出错。

It could go wrong, and it will go wrong if all wealth is going to a small number people, and those people do not appear to be onside.

不过，迈克，这种看法显然是一个刻板印象。

Now, that perception, Mike, is obviously a caricature.

它之所以是刻板印象，是因为这是新技术，你不能沿用同样的框架，你需要那些能理解其独特性的人。

It is a caricature in the sense this is new technology, and you're not going to be able to use the same kind of framework, and you're going to need people who appreciate how it's different.

关于第四修正案所保障的隐私权，确实存在一些真实的问题。

And there are real questions about Fourth Amendment protections, like our right to privacy.

在一个可以通过技术推断出他人在家行为的世界里，隐私意味着什么？

What is privacy in a world where you could impute what someone's doing at home through technology?

你如何保护我们拥有自己思想、观点、家庭习惯和健康记录的权利？

How do you protect our right to have our own thoughts, our own ideas, our own practices at home, our own health records?

当这项技术还能帮助你更健康、更长寿、可能提升经济地位时——尤其是对职业劳动者而言——这些问题就变得真实而紧迫。

Those are real issues when the technology can also help you to be healthier, live longer, have a higher economic status potentially, certainly if you're a vocational worker.

因此，这些问题必须被逐一剖析，而硅谷正确的地方在于，你需要一个讨论这些议题的平台，这个平台不会假装大型语言模型、机器学习、软件和子弹都是同一回事。

So those issues have to be unpacked, and where Silicon Valley is right is you're going to need a forum to talk about that that doesn't pretend, you know, large language models is the same thing as machine learning is the same thing as software is the same thing as a bullet.

它们不是一回事。

They're not.

但事实上，我非常认同一种对经济精英——尤其是技术领域的精英——的批评：他们用一种过于经济化的哲学术语来说，就是‘物化’，把权利变成了某种具体的东西。

But de facto, I very much believe, as a critique of the economic elite, especially in the technical area, there's like, to use an economic, a kind of overly economic, a philosophical term, they reify, meaning they turn it into a thing, are rights.

但这些权利，你知道，当我身处德国时，我花了很多时间，我完成了博士学位，但我也经常与一些年长的德国人相处，无论是在乡下还是在城市里。

But those rights you know, when I was in Germany, I was there, and there were I spent a lot of time, I did a PhD, but I you know, there were a lot of older Germans, and I would spend time with them in the countryside, in the city.

当然，他们在乡下从不认识任何纳粹分子。

Of course, they didn't know anybody who was a Nazi in the countryside.

他们觉得，我们都是纳粹。

They're like, We're all Nazis.

所以我就会问他们。

So I would ask them.

但其中一个更引人入胜的问题是，他们为何成为民主党人——不是指左右派，而是大写的D。

But one of the more fascinating conversations is why they became Democrats, or not like left right, but capital D.

而答案总是因为这有效。

And it was always because it worked.

而我们从不追问的是，如果这种机制瓦解了，我们就会失去保护。

And then the unwinding of it that we don't ask, If it unwinds, you know, we will not be protected.

而我们当前的对话根本未正视正在发生的政治现实。

And it's just the dialogue we have currently is not acknowledging what's going to happen politically, what is happening politically.

财富税就是这种现象的衍生品，因为人人都知道，财富税并不会帮助穷人，只会让富人遭殃。

The wealth tax is a derivative of this, because everyone knows the wealth tax isn't going to help the poor, it's just going to fuck the rich.

而这已经足以让它得以推行。

And that's enough to get it done.

如果这种情况正在发生，想象一下，当有五十个令人反感的人掌握所有财富时，会发生什么。

And if that's happening, just imagine what's going to happen when it's like, there's going to be 50 unlikable people with all the money.

这里有人喜欢这样吗？

Anybody here like that?

你们现在过得不错。

And you guys are doing well.

不，我想回到关于如何确保国防部继续在人工智能领域保持领导地位的讨论，因为我认为在过去48小时里，这一直是在场所有人最关注的问题。

No, I want to get back to kind of the conversation about how we ensure that the Department of War continues to lead on AI, because I think this has been top of mind for everyone in the room for the last forty eight hours.

我们的对手正在关注那些通过新闻稿展开的战争。

Our adversaries are looking at contracting wars that are playing out in press releases.

你认为我们如何才能确保在人工智能竞赛中击败中国？

What is your view on how we can ensure that we win this AI race against the PRC?

如果你要给所有L公司的创始人和首席执行官提建议的话。

If you're giving advice to all the founders and CEOs of L.

首先

The first

这件事，我这么做的一部分原因，除了你的魅力和重要性之外，我想来这里的原因是我希望在硅谷保持我的声誉——你总是需要有声誉的。

thing, part of what I'm doing, and part the reason, I mean, besides your charm and importance, part of the reason I want to be here is I want My reputation in the valley You always have reputations.

我甚至不是说这个声誉是真的。

My reputation I'm not even saying the reputation is true.

但就我而言，人们认为我是个疯疯癫癫的人，经常告诉你一些你不想听、可能不喜欢，但很可能正确的话。

But in my case, I'm viewed as the batshit crazy guy who is often telling you something you don't want to hear, and you may not like, but is probably right.

没错。

That's true.

所以是的。

So yeah.

这就是为什么我希望你迈出这第一步。

And that's why I want you to send this first step.

我们必须让他们意识到事情的严重性。

We have to they're not understanding the stakes.

除非人们真正理解事情的严重性，否则什么都不会发生。

And what I nothing's going to happen until people understand the stakes.

这会影响你。

This will affect you.

那么问题来了，就像好莱坞做的那样，好莱坞团结了起来。

Now, then the question is, like what Hollywood did, is Hollywood got together.

整个评级体系是好莱坞意识到，如果我们不搞评级，华盛顿就会插手，而且会搞得一团糟。

The whole rating system was Hollywood realized if we don't do ratings, Washington's going to, and Washington is going to butcher it.

即使我们假设华盛顿并不想搞砸，但它也不了解这个行业。

Let's even say Washington doesn't want to butcher it, but it doesn't understand the metier.

所以第一步是所有人，我已经在打电话给一些人了，说：好的，太好了。

So the first step is everybody, and I'm already on the phone with people saying, Okay, great.

我理解你的问题，但你要明白，狼已经到了门口，而且它们已经尝到了血的味道。

I understand your issue, but you realize the wolves are at the gate, and they already have tasted blood.

第二步是我们必须找到办法聚在一起，说：好吧，如果你只是想讨论这些问题，没错，像在美国背景下利用技术侵犯第四修正案权利这样的事，实际上这个国家的左右两派都不想要。

The second step is we have to find ways where we get together and say, Okay, like if you just want to go through the issues, yes, there are you know, using technologies in the context of eviscerating Fourth Amendment rights in America is something left and right in this country actually don't want.

认为任何一方真的想要这种事，是一种漫画式的误解。

It's a caricature to believe that either side wants it.

事实上，有些人在私下的房间里，左翼有些人根本不在乎这些问题，却在公众面前装作关心；右翼有些人则假装不在乎，实际上他们很在意。

There are people on the honestly, I'm in private rooms there are people on the left who don't care about these issues, who pretend to do do it it in public, and there are people on the right who pretend not to care, who do care.

两大政党都有重要的联盟，而美国人民很在意，这也在我们的宪法之中。

Both parties have significant coalitions, and the American people care, and it's in our constitution.

但你必须非常细致地考虑战场上会发生什么，因为美国人关心的两个问题是他们的繁荣和安全。

But then you have to be very granular about what's going to happen on the battlefield, because there, the two issues Americans care about are their prosperity and their safety.

所以，硅谷必须解决的两个问题是：我们该如何合乎道德地讨论我们的经济将面临什么？

So if the two things that Silicon Valley has to figure out is, how are we going to ethically talk about what's going to happen to our economy?

在我看来，通过贸易塑造的人群可以创造大量繁荣。

In my view, you could create a lot of prosperity with trade shaped people.

好吧，但白领工人会怎么样？我们该怎么办？

Okay, but what is going to happen to the white collar workers, and what are we going to do?

这是一个问题。

That's one issue.

然后我们可能不会达成一致，但我们必须像好莱坞那样，开展一些类似的举措。

And then we're not going to agree, but we have to have something like we're going to do these initiatives just like Hollywood did.

然后你必须在战场上展开一场讨论，在那里，可反驳的推定——也就是说，这种情况不会发生——是我们将尽最大努力确保我们的战士安全回家。

And then you're going to have to have a discussion on the battlefield where the rebuttable presumption, meaning it doesn't happen, is that we are going to do the maximal amount to make sure our warfighters come home safely.

如果你坐在硅谷，提出某种会削弱这一原则的论点，或者相反，你无法理解硅谷在说什么，那就必须有一个中间媒介。

And if you are sitting in Silicon Valley making an argument that somehow would eviscerate that, or conversely, you're not able to understand what Silicon Valley is saying, meaning there's going to have to be a medium.

我不打算详细讨论所有这些分歧，因为我身处其中，而且我希望继续留在中间位置，这里既有实质性的议题，也有文化层面的问题。

Without going into details on all these breakdowns, because I was in the middle of it, and I want to stay in the middle of it, there are substantive issues, and there are cultural issues.

如果我们能消除这些文化误解，就有可能在这些问题上达成相当接近的共识。

If we could get rid of the cultural misunderstanding, we could get pretty close to agreements here.

但你面对的是两个从未、从未、从未交流过、也没有能力相互沟通的世界。

But you're dealing with worlds that never, ever, ever talk, and don't have an ability to talk to each other.

是的。

Yeah.

而且你已经为搭建这些文化之间的桥梁努力了二十年。

Well, and you've been building a bridge between these cultures for twenty years.

这正是最有趣的地方。

Mean, that's what's so interesting.

我的意思是，这在某种程度上正是我们举办这次会议的原因——把说两种不同语言、拥有截然不同价值观的人聚集在一起，试图让他们达成一致。

I mean, that's in some ways why we have this conference, to bring together people who speak two different languages, very different value sets, and try to get them aligned.

我很想听听你对这些可能刚入行的创始人们的建议。

I'd love your advice for these founders who maybe are new.

你知道，这就像是那个梗，科恩兄弟电影里的第一次场景，很多这些人都是第一次和国防部对话，也许他们家里没人当过兵，也从未见过任何军人。

You know, it's sort of like that meme, the first time meme with the Coen Brothers film, you know, where it's like a lot of these people are having their first conversations with the Department of War, or maybe they don't have any family in the military, maybe they've never met a war fighter.

对于这些刚接触这些对话的CEO们，而你已经持续参与了二十年，你有什么建议吗？

What is your advice to some of these CEOs who are maybe new to these conversations that you've been having for twenty years now?

你能做的最好的事情就是去爱荷华州或者去一个基地，我想说的是，这样吧。

Well, the best thing you could do is go to Iowa or go to a base and have a I don't think look, put it this way.

也许第一次接触时可能不太适合未成年人观看，但你知道，我目前单身且没有离过婚，所以别学我怎么生活。

Maybe the first time it's probably not PG, but you know, I'm happily not married, not divorced, so don't follow how I live.

但如果你要去见某人，其实没必要非得去压制对方。

But you don't have to maybe if you're going to meet somebody, really want to oppress it.

也许如果你是和第三任恋人见面，而不是第一任，反而会更有优势。

Maybe you have an advantage if it's your third girlfriend or boyfriend, not your first.

去和某人聊一聊吧。

Like, go have a conversation with somebody.

如果你要见一位将军之类的人，而你从未与真正上过战场的人交谈过，或者你身边没有家人有过战场经历，因此你无法理解他们的视角，这很可能是一个巨大的错误。

Like, if you're going to meet a general or somebody like that, and you've never talked to somebody who's actually done something on the battlefield, or someone who has family who's done something on the battlefield, and you don't have any and because of that, you don't have an ability to emphasize with their perspective, that's probably a huge mistake.

是的。

Yeah.

而且这很可能会适得其反。

And it's probably going to backfire.

其次，你必须诚实地评估自己的专长所在。

Secondly, though, you have to be honest about where your aptitude is.

硅谷的科技建设者，广义上包括硬件、软件和人工智能，我认为我们在军事背景下构建的基本上是软件架构，某种意义上更像硬件软件，但其实是在软件层面管理大语言模型。

Silicon Valley tech builders, broadly defined hardware, software, AI, I would say we build in the military context essentially software scaffolding much more like, in a weird way, more like hardware software, but it's in software, managing LLMs.

人们在这个领域犯的最大错误是，因为他们在某一领域很聪明，就以为自己在所有领域都聪明，而硅谷的一个主要问题在于，每个硅谷人都被迫表现得自己在所有方面都始终是最聪明的。

The single biggest mistake people make in this area is because they're intelligent in one area, they assume they're intelligent in all areas, and a big failure mechanism in the Valley is every Valley person is forced to present as if they're the smartest in all areas at all time.

这就像，如果你不知道谁是‘靶子’，那你就是那个‘靶子’。

That's like, if you don't know who the Mark is, you're the Mark.

是的。

Yeah.

比如，如果你觉得自己是最聪明的人，而我有阅读障碍，我认为自己之所以能取得这么好的成绩，是因为我相信自己在某些方面确实很出色，至少我这么认为，而且我知道自己并非样样都行。

Like if you think you're the smartest person so I'm dyslexic, and I think one of the reasons I've done so well is I do think I'm one of the better people at certain things, at least I believe it, and I know I'm not at everything.

这其实是个很小的问题，但硅谷的一个失败模式就是：每个人都觉得自己在所有问题上都是最聪明的。

It's a very small it's like but a failure mode for the Valley is I'm the smartest on every issue.

例如，我必须亲自来谈判这份合同。

For example, I need to be the person negotiating this contract.

如果你根本没这方面的天赋怎么办？

What if you have no aptitude for that?

仅仅因为你能做X，并不意味着你在Y方面就具备高能力。

Just because you can do X does not mean you've imputed high aptitude at Y.

事实上，这种情况几乎不可能成立。

In fact, it's very unlikely it's true.

你几乎肯定只是不够聪明，以至于意识不到自己有多糟糕。

It's almost certain that you're just not smart enough to realize how bad you are.

这可能是在场所有创业者最重要的教训之一。

That's probably one of the most important lessons for company builders in the room.

实际上，我想以Palantir是O结束这次对话。

I actually, I want to end the conversation on Palantir is the O.

G。

G.

美国活力公司。

American Dynamism company.

我认为在场的许多创始人都是欠债的。

I think a lot of our founders in this room are indebted.

他们曾为你工作。

They've worked for you.

他们是在Palantir内部建立起自己的方法论的。

They've built their playbooks inside of Palantir.

他们创建了各自领域内极为出色的公司，但许多情况下，他们的起点正是Palantir。

They've built new companies that are epic in their own right, but they started at Palantir in many cases.

所以我想深入聊聊，你提到了神经多样性研究员计划。

And so I wanna dive into, you brought up the neurodivergent fellowship.

这是你做过的最让我喜欢的事情之一。

It's one of my favorite things you've ever done.

你做过很多了不起的事，但我认为这是你在公司里做出的最非凡的立场之一。

You've done a lot of great things, but I think it's one of the most extraordinary stands that you've taken in the company.

你一直都在寻找那些与众不同的人，并且培养他们，把来自不同背景的人聚集在一起——无论是民主党人、共和党人，还是左右翼人士，来自各种生活背景的人。

But you've always looked for people who are different and somehow cultivated them and brought together people who are Democrats, Republicans, on the right, on the left, people who are of all walks of life.

你是如何领导这样一个多元化群体的，尤其是在你这样的规模下？

How do you lead such a diverse group of people, especially at scale, like at the scale you are?

嗯，说实话，很难说清楚，我把自己看作一个艺术家，所以你其实是在问：你怎么创作艺术？

Well, I mean, it's always hard to know when you're I view myself as an artist, so you're really It's like, well, how do you create the art?

这很有趣，因为说实话，我喜欢金钱带给我的自由，我绝对不想做些虚假的慈善来证明自己是个好人，就因为我做过坏事；我认为我们所做的事情非常重要。

And it's funny because, mean, look, I like the freedom money gives me, and I certainly don't want to do some bullshit philanthropy to prove that I'm good because I did something bad, because I think what we do is very important.

归根结底，这就像一件艺术作品，但总是很有帮助的。

It's like at the end of the day, it's like an artistic thing, but it's always helpful.

父母是我见过最有才华的人之一，但我感觉他们并不认同我，觉得他们本该如此，这有点奇怪。

Parents are among the most talented people I've ever met, and I feel they don't agree with me that like they should have, they could like it's kind of weird.

我这么有名，这么说吧。

I'm so famous, put it that way.

还有美国人的观念，我真心相信每个人与生俱来拥有独特、解放、不可剥夺的权利，这正是我认为世界上特别道德和珍贵的地方。

Then And there's the American thing where I really believe in the magical, liberating, inalienable right for all of us to be individuals, and that's what I see as particularly moral and special in the world.

我不喜欢那些我 famously 反对‘觉醒文化’的东西，但我真正反感的是，人们假装与众不同，实际上却千篇一律。

I don't like these things that I've been famously anti woke, but the thing I find offensive about it is actually that it's people pretending to be different while all being the same.

所以我倾向于被那些独特的人吸引，而且是的，我根本不在乎他们的政治立场。

And so I don't like So I tend to gravitate towards people who are unique, and yeah, don't really care their politics.

我在乎的是他们思考和行动的能力。

I care about their ability to think and do.

有一种天赋，你能认出那些在你从未做过的事情上真正独特的人，这种能力是与生俱来的吗？

There is an aptitude thing where can you recognize somebody who is truly unique in something you've not done yourself as just something you're born with?

我认为这是一种神经多样性，就像超高智商一样，在某种程度上，这和自闭症并没有太大区别。

I do think it's a form of neurodivergence, like outlier IQ is, in a certain way, it's not that different than being autistic.

就像你根本不可能像一个普通聪明的人那样去分解问题。

Like you just can't, you're not going to decomp a problem the way somebody who is just normal smart will.

我觉得这非常非常有魅力。

And I find that very, very charismatic.

要做到这一点，关键在于这是一件极其困难的事——我认为，Palantir的那些人，在Palantir任职期间，以及在许多甚至大多数情况下，即便离开Palantir之后，我都在帮助他们表达出只有他们自己在那一刻才能做到的东西。

The trick to doing it is you have to it's this very hard thing where somebody who is the best I believe the Palantirians, while managed at Palantir, and sometimes in many and most cases, presumably after a Palantir, I am helping them to express something that only they can do at that moment.

如果你看看我们的产品和我们所做的事情，这确实是事实。

And if you look at our products and what we've done, it is actually true.

甚至我们现在在中东和美国各地所做的一切，每一个产品、每一个环节，都是由世界上唯一能完成它的人打造的。

Even what we're doing right now all across The Middle East and obviously in America, each single product at each single part was built by the one person in the world that could have done it.

然后我必须设法让他们去做那些他们自己并不认为有价值的事情，但要按照他们自己的方式。

And then I have to somehow get them to do things that they don't actually think are valuable, but on their terms.

这基本上就是我的工作，因为在这样的能力层级上，你不能直接说：‘去做这个，笨蛋’，因为他们会问：‘我为什么要这么做？’

And that's basically my job, because at that level of aptitude, you can't just say, Do this, idiot, because they're like, Why would I do that?

你才是那个笨蛋。

You're the idiot.

而我认为，Palantir人、前Palantir人和现任Palantir人特别之处在于，在Palantir时，你并不是在学习如何遵循我的套路。

And then what I think is very special about the Palantirians, ex Palantirians and current Palantirians, is when you're at Palantir, you're not learning to actually follow my playbook.

你是在学习遵循你自己的套路，而我会悄悄插入一些你可能从未想过的东西，也许你根本没意识到我在这么做，目的是帮你清除你 playbook 中的混乱。

You're learning to follow your playbook, where I'm inserting some things that may not have occurred to you, maybe you don't know I'm doing that, to make sure that your playbook gets rid of your dyslexia, basically.

我是在你周围帮你消除这种混乱，而不是直接改造你的 playbook。

I'm anti dyslexifying your playbook, but around you.

如果你看看那些重要的前Palantir员工，你会发现他们都是极具变革性的人，他们绝不会去复制Palantir曾经的公司模式。

And if you take the I don't know, there's so many really important ex Palantirians, what you'll see is they're a kynaeclastic people, and they're not going to build the same company Palantir was.

他们也不会去复制下一个Palantir离职者所建立的公司模式。

They're also not going to build the same company of the next person as Palantir.

正因如此，他们才发挥了如此不成比例的重要作用。

And that's why they play such a disproportional role.

归根结底，这正是Palantir能发挥如此巨大影响力的原因——无论是Foundry、PG、Apollo、本体论、本体论管理，还是Maven，我们都以其他任何国家都无法做到的方式实现了精准定位。

And at the end of the day, that's why Palantir is playing such a big role, because Foundry, PG, Apollo, ontology, the management of ontology, Maven, which is like, you know, we've just been able to target in a way no other country can.

其他国家的人可能会问：这里到底发生了什么？

It's like the other countries are like, What the happened here?

我们当时在想阿富汗。

We were thinking Afghanistan.

这是什么？

What is this?

意思是我们的撤退。

Meaning our retreat.

也就是说，美国重新建立了威慑力。

Like, meaning and, like, America has reestablished deterrence.

这真的刚刚发生了。

That actually just happened.

它发生在过去一年里。

It's happened in the last year.

不管是左翼、右翼还是中间派，不管你私下支持哪个政党。

Like, that right, left, center I don't care what party you're in in private.

当然，这不能在公开场合说。

Obviously, can't say this in public.

在私下里，这是美国现在拥有的、过去不具备的一项非凡优势，背后有诸多原因。

In private, that is a phenomenal asset that America now has that it did not have, and there are lots of reasons for it.

但其中一个原因，或许不是最重要的，是围绕着一个名为‘Maven’的项目聚集了一群极其不寻常、在某些情况下甚至不完全正常的人才，这个项目原本是一个被许多人视为丑闻、不受欢迎且遭到拒绝的梦想。

But a one, maybe not the most important, is a concatenation of the most unusual, in some cases otherwise, maybe not fully functional talent built around building something that was an absolutely scandalous, unpopular dream rejected by many people called Maven.

顺便说一句，如果我们想要超越世界其他地区，我们唯一的优势就是支持那些神经多样性、高度个性化的个体，让他们发挥出最独特、最出色的一面，并保护他们的第一、第二、第四和第五修正案权利，以免他们被伤害。

And that's how this country By the way, if we are going to outperform the rest of the world, our single advantage is to augment neurodivergent, highly individual people to be their absolutely unique best and protect their first, second, fourth, and fifth amendment rights so that they don't get screwed.

是的。

Yeah.

绝对如此。

Absolutely.

好吧，再次感谢这位美国活力运动的创始人，感谢你为国家所做的一切。

Well, again, the OG, American Dynamism founder, thank you so much for all you've

为国家所做的一切。

done for the country.

谢谢。

Thank you.

感谢您收听本集a16z播客。

Thanks for listening to this episode of the a16z podcast.

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再次感谢您的收听，我们下集再见。

Thanks again for listening, and I'll see you in the next episode.

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