Steven Sinofsky on Apple at 50, Microsoft, and the Future of Computing

经历过好几次元器件短缺，你就知道得耐心等着，别让某些本地的苹果设备或者本地的人左右了未来。

Having lived through, like, a half dozen component shortage things, you just sort of wait them out, and you don't let some local Macs or local men determine the future.

这些情况很快就会自己调整过来。

This will all correct itself in short order.

现在这种一切都要按代币收费的世界，最终会转移到你的设备上，就像整个计算行业过去经历的那样。

This world where you're all gated on dollars per token is a thing that's gonna move to your own device, which is exactly what happened with all of computing.

只要某个资源需要付费，它最终都会转移到你的设备上，然后变成免费的。

Anytime there's a resource constraint that you have to pay for, it moves to your device and becomes free.

AI 为个人电脑带来了一个新的机会，让它们能面向未来，而不是总盯着过去。

AI introduces yet another opportunity to change that dynamic for the PC to have it be forward looking, not backward looking.

我觉得这对微软，对整个行业来说，都是一个极其重要的契机。

And I think this is incredibly important opportunity for Microsoft and for the industry as a whole.

很少有人能像史蒂文·西诺夫斯基那样，亲历了个人计算革命的全过程。

Few people have had a front row seat to the personal computing revolution quite like Steven Sinofsky.

在微软近三十年里，他参与打造了定义了PC时代的产品，包括Windows、Office和Surface。

Over nearly three decades at Microsoft, he helped shape products that defined the PC era, including Windows, Office, and Surface.

在此期间，他还亲历了科技行业持续时间最长的一场竞争——微软和苹果之间的较量。

Along the way, he also witnessed one of the technology industry's longest running rivalries, Microsoft and Apple.

随着苹果庆祝成立五十周年，关于产品设计、平台、硬件、软件以及计算未来的问题，依然和以往一样重要。

As Apple celebrates its fiftieth anniversary, questions about product design, platforms, hardware, software, and the future of computing remain as relevant as ever.

西奥·贾菲与史蒂文·西诺夫斯基对话，探讨苹果、微软以及个人计算的发展历程。

Theo Jaffee speaks with Steven Sinofsky about Apple, Microsoft, and the evolution of personal computing.

我现在和史蒂文·西诺夫斯基在情况室里，他可能是MTS最早的一位嘉宾，那时候我们还在做测试直播，我记得。

I'm in the situation room with Steven Sinofsky, who might have been, like, the first ever guest on MTS back when we were still doing test streams, I think.

他是我在测试直播中第一个采访的人。

He He the first person I interviewed on a test stream.

他曾是微软Windows部门的总裁。

He was the president of the Windows division at Microsoft.

他在微软创立了Surface项目，今天我们有一些非常有趣的消息要分享。

He created the Surface program at Microsoft, which we have some very interesting news about today.

非常高兴你能来。

We're thrilled to have you on.

史蒂文，欢迎来到MDS。

Steven, welcome to MDS.

欢迎回来。

Welcome back.

非常感谢。

Well, thanks so much.

很高兴见到你。

Good to see you.

大家好。

Hi, everyone.

是的。

Yeah.

你好。

Hi.

第一个问题，NVIDIA、微软和ARM等几家公司刚在Computex上发布了一项非常引人注目的消息。

First question would be, NVIDIA and Microsoft and ARM and a few other companies just announced something very interesting at Computex.

他们到底宣布了什么？这有什么重要意义？

What exactly did they announce, and what does it matter?

当然。

Sure.

为了让大伙儿清楚，虽然这事很少上新闻，但Computex其实是台湾一场规模巨大的行业展会。

Well, just so folks know, because it doesn't get in the news much, but Computex is this big giant trade show in Taiwan.

这场展会特别古怪，完全是半导体供应链圈内的内部交流会。

And it's the weirdest show because it's like this total inside baseball silicon supply chain show.

通常来说，外界根本不会关注它。

And normally you never hear about it.

事实上，我本人也从来没去过。

In fact, I never went to it even.

我本来想去的，但后来发现它总和微软的一场重要销售会议撞时间。

I wanted to, but it actually turns out it was always right around the same time as a big Microsoft sales meeting.

所以一直没去成。

So I never went.

但你可以把它看作是制造任何类型计算设备所需整个生态系统的展示会。

But you could think of it as the ecosystem show for everything it takes to build a computing device of any kind.

没错，不过詹森昨晚的主题演讲做了一张特别精彩的幻灯片，他从舞台这一头走到另一头，一一指出那些他非常兴奋能见到的合作伙伴。

Totally well, but Jensen in his keynote last night did this incredible slide where he walked up and down the whole length of the stage pointing to partners that he was very excited to be there.

我打赌任何观看的人，根本认不出他指的那些公司是哪家。

And I would bet anyone anyone watching would have no idea who the companies he was pointing at.

比如他提到的有些公司，光是名字用的是传统中文，根本看不出是做什么的，还挺有意思的。

Like these are some of them, like half of the ones he pointed to as kind of being entertaining were just names of companies in traditional Chinese.

所以你完全不知道这些公司是干嘛的。

And so you don't even know what they are.

但这场展会确实非常精彩。

But it's an incredible show.

太疯狂了，因为它完全是围绕着元器件、外设、芯片组和生产线这些内行才懂的东西，全是合作和交易。

It's just wild because it's such inside baseball about components and peripherals and chipsets and assembly lines and it's deals and deals and stuff.

每隔十年左右，它会突然火一把，但像过去这24小时这么火爆，还真是头一回。

And every ten years or so, it jumps into the mainstream, but never like the past twenty four hours.

你从来没见过这样的场面。

You never see that.

其实两年前，Jensen 在 CES 上做过一次主题演讲，情况就很像那次。

And actually it was a lot like, I think it was two years ago, Jensen keynoted CES.

我参加过四十多届 CES，但从没看过哪一届有这么广泛的媒体关注。

And I I've been to 40 CESs, and I'd never seen one with such a broad media reach.

对。

Yeah.

Jensen 就是科技界的泰勒·斯威夫特。

Jensen's like Taylor Swift of the tech industry.

说得太对了。

So true.

没错。

Yeah.

这充分说明了科技界，尤其是人工智能领域，对 NVIDIA 的关注度有多高。

It's an incredible level of it just speaks to the awareness of tech and then the awareness of AI and what NVIDIA has done.

因为说实话，这规模比CES大太多了，Xbox在那儿简直成了配角。

Because, I mean, like, I you know, it was bigger than like, CES Xbox was like a sideshow compared to this.

哇哦。

Wow.

是的。

Yeah.

他在China也特别火。

And he's huge in China too.

这个展会一直以来在亚洲都很盛大，因为大部分公司都在那儿，不管是大陆、台湾、越南还是新加坡，展会的根源本来就在亚洲。

Well, the show is always huge in Asia broadly because most of the companies are there, whether they're in Mainland or in Taiwan or in Vietnam or Singapore, And that's sort of the origin of the show.

那会儿去现场，简直像得一直用亚洲语言交流一样。

This show was like, go there and speak an Asian language forever.

太有意思了。

So fascinating.

不过说到大手笔，虽然事情多得数不清，但最引人注目的还是英伟达发布了他们所谓的RTX Spark超级芯片——名字就够长的。

So the big amounts though, I mean, look, there's a zillion things going on, but the one that rose to the top was NVIDIA announcing what they called the RTX Spark Superchip, which is a mouthful.

展会之前，这个芯片普遍被称为N1X。

Before the show, it was broadly called N1X.

简单说，它就是把一个ARM处理器和NVIDIA的并行图形处理单元整合到一块芯片上，还采用了完全不同于传统PC架构的全新内存系统。

And that's sort of the what it is is just it's a ARM CPU loaded with NVIDIA parallel processing graphics basically into one system on a chip that has a whole new memory architecture relative to the historic way that PCs have been built.

它的目标客户就是PC厂商。

And the target for it are the PC makers.

这真的非常令人兴奋。

And so it's very, very exciting.

如果看主流媒体、财经媒体，还有我身后正在直播的CNBC，他们都觉得这是英伟达要进军PC市场——也就是主流芯片领域，这听起来有点奇怪，因为早在2011年，我们其实就已经宣布过要打造基于英伟达芯片的PC，还推出了第一代Surface电脑。

If you the mainstream press, the stock market press, the CNBC going on behind me, like they all looked at this as like Nvidia entering the PC business, which is let's call it the mainstream chip business, which is sort of weird because, you know, long before in the start ages, which is now we're talking about 2011, we actually announced, invuliencing PCs and making the Surface computer, the very first one.

当时在Computex和CES上都是重磅发布，我还记得很清楚，合作展示的PPT上有英伟达、高通、德州仪器，还有各大芯片和PC厂商。

And it was a Computex big announcement, and it was a CES announcement, and I remember that very vividly the partner slide had NVIDIA and Qualcomm and Texas Instruments and all the chip makers and PC makers.

所以这件事给人的感觉，就像当年的翻版，只是规模小了一百倍左右。

So it has a ring of familiarity at, I would imagine, like one one hundredth the scale.

明白了。

Okay.

我之前发给你们了，你们可以放出来，就是那天我们发布产品时那个技术梗图。

I sent you guys you could throw it up, but I sent you the tech meme role from that day when we announced the stuff.

那张图在当时还挺有分量的。

And it was still a pretty significant role.

你们以后可以找个合适的时候再放出来。

So you'll be able to throw it up at some later date.

对。

Yeah.

这款笔记本在哪些方面更像原生AI设备？

So in what way is this laptop more like AI native?

最大的变化在于，计算负担已经从CPU转移到了图形处理器，还有配套的神经网络处理器、TPU这些芯片上。

So the big thing that's really changed is that the compute burden has shifted from the CPU to the graphics processor and then the associated neural processors, TPUs, and those chips.

这才是真正关键的转变。

That's the thing that really changed.

这跟十五年前的情况很像，那时候主要的运算任务也从CPU转向了GPU，只是为了渲染。

It's not unlike fifteen years ago what had changed was the bulk of the interesting processing had moved from the CPU to the GPU just for rendering.

我们今天所处的位置，不过是这一切的自然延伸。

Where we are today is just an extension of all of that.

关键的区别在于，这变得极其重要，因为现在这种计算能力正是每个人想要的。

The difference, it's just insanely important because now that's the compute that we think everybody wants to do.

很多人可能会说，我用ChatGPT啊，我在MacBook Air、Chromebook、手机上都能用，根本不需要别的设备。

Now, a lot of people would look at this and go, Well, I use ChatGPT, I do it on my MacBook Air, my Chromebook, my phone, I don't really need like another thing.

但问题在于，你们可能听过这个词——那就是令牌消耗。

The problem is, and this might be a word you guys have used or heard before, but the problem is tokens.

问题就在于，所有人都被令牌消耗卡住了，因为这些令牌要花钱，免费使用时根本拿不到足够的量。

And so the problem is that everybody is gated by the consumption of tokens which cost money where you can't get them if you're trying to use them for free.

所以这个设备的特别之处在于，它能把多少计算任务移到本地，让你几乎拥有无限免费的令牌？

And so the interesting thing about this device is how much of compute can it move to your local device where you basically have infinitely free tokens?

这非常有意思，也至关重要。

And that is incredibly interesting and super important.

当然，你们都见过，到现在为止，大家堆了一堆Mac mini，全在上面跑自己的智能代理。

Now, of course, you've all seen this run up to where we are today with the stacks of Mac minis and everybody running their agents on minis.

那他们为什么要这么做呢？

So why did they do that?

这背后有很多关于隐私和沙盒隔离的考虑，但最主要的原因是，如果你只想让程序跑上三天，帮你规划最优旅行路线，你肯定不希望最后收到一张上万美元的账单。

Well, there's a whole bunch of stuff about privacy and sandboxing them, but the primary thing was if you just want to let something roll for three days while it figures out your best travel itinerary, you really don't want to end up with a $10,000 bill.

所以你干脆买三台迷你主机，让它们各自独立运行，各自处理任务。

So instead you buy three minis and let it crank away with like each mini putting something in isolation or whatever.

如果你往前看六到九个月，这一点就再清楚不过了。

If you just fast forward six or nine months, it's abundantly clear.

我说这话是作为对未来的预测，不是说这事儿在逻辑上显而易见，而是我觉得，那种每个人都被‘按token收费’的模式，最终一定会像整个计算史那样，转移到你的设备上，变成免费的。

And I say that as a predictor of the future, not like as a it's obviously intellectually clear, but it just seems to me that this world where you're all gated on dollars per token is a thing that's going to move to your own device, which is exactly what happened with all of computing.

只要某个资源是你要花钱才能用的，它迟早都会跑到你的设备上，变成免费的。

Anytime there's a resource constraint that you have to pay for, it moves to your device and becomes free.

我真的想象不出，这事儿还能有别的走向。

I just don't imagine I don't know how it can happen.

没错。

Sure.

所以，如果有人想在一年后拥有一台真正为AI设计的设备，那时候这些产品都已上市了，你觉得他们会想要一台NVIDIA Spark笔记本，还是会继续用MacBook Pro，或者那台传闻中今年晚些时候或明年初发布的MacBook Ultra？

So for someone who wants a more AI native device in a year when all of these products have shipped, Do think they're going to want an NVIDIA Spark laptop, or do you think they're gonna wanna stick with MacBook Pro or the rumored MacBook Ultra, which is supposed to come out later this year or early next year?

这其实是个关键问题。

Well, this is just I mean, this is the huge thing.

我觉得可能的发展方向是：维持现状，也就是财富500强企业依然会用Windows设备，搭载Intel或者可能跑ARM架构的Spark芯片，但系统还是Windows。

And the way that I think this can play out is, well, of course, you could play it out in like essentially status quo, which is the Fortune 500, eightytwenty, seventythirty rule will be able to just fall to Windows devices running Intel or maybe Spark devices running ARM but running with a Windows operating system.

而那些潮流人士、老板、精英阶层——不管你怎么叫他们——还是会用MacBook Pro，靠Chrome或Safari连着手机和各种服务。

And then the cool people, bosses, the elites, whatever you call it running their MacBook Pros with Chrome or Safari just connecting things and phones.

但还有另一种可能：在设备上运行高度优化的AI软件栈变得至关重要。

There's another path where it becomes incredibly important to run highly optimized AI stack of software on your device.

而无论这个软件栈是什么，它都会针对特定的硬件平台做深度优化。

And whatever that stack is, is going to get optimized for a particular hardware base.

这种事我们已经见过很多次了。

And that's a thing we've seen over and over again.

现在的情况特别有意思，因为我们还缺乏足够的信息，没法确定未来到底会往哪个方向走。

Now, where we are right now is just so interesting because we don't have enough information to know where things are heading.

昨晚的发布会、新闻稿和各方评论中，微软明确表示——这让我很意外，我们后面可以细说——NVIDIA的CUDA堆栈将会在Spark上提供支持并被纳入其中。

At the announcement last night and the press releases and the commentary, Microsoft made it clear, much to my surprise, which we could go into, that the Nvidia stack of CUDA will be available and supported and part of this Spark.

不过，实现这一点的方式其实有很多种。

Now, there are a lot of ways for that to become true.

可能是用户自己下载安装的一个程序。

It could be a download that just runs.

也可能是出厂就预装在Spark设备上的软件。

It could be a thing that's pre installed on a Spark device.

甚至可能直接集成进操作系统，通过Windows更新来推送，还需要管理员权限之类的复杂操作。

It could be a thing that's part of the OS and updated with Windows Update and administrative permissions and all of this other stuff.

可能性太多了，说不完。

Could be a whole range of things.

目前还没人公开说明他们到底会怎么实现。

Nobody knows yet in terms of public announcing how they're going to do that.

苹果那边的情况也是一样。

The same thing holds for Apple.

现在在Mac上，你已经可以本地运行所有这些模型之类的了。

And today on a Mac, you can run all the models locally and stuff like that.

但在手机上，这还做不到。

You can't really do that on a phone.

所以一个有趣的问题是，苹果在WWDC上会对CUDA API做些什么？

So interesting question is going to be, what is Apple going to do at WWDC with respect to the CUDA APIs?

它们会是原生支持的吗？

Like, are they going to be native?

还是会通过一层封装来实现？

Are they going to be a thunking layer?

那里头可能有各种可能性。

Lots of stuff could happen there.

它们是分布式的吗？

Are they distributed?

会是一个App Store上的应用吗？

Is it an App Store app?

它是操作系统的一部分吗？

Is it an OS component?

没人说得准。

Nobody has any idea.

对这两家公司来说，过去的情况非常有意思，但大多数人没经历过这段历史——NVIDIA 一直以来都是个人电脑行业的局外人。

Now for both companies, the past is very interesting and most people didn't live through this, but NVIDIA has always been an outsider to the personal computer industry.

它始终是个外接配件。

It's always been an add on.

在PC上，如果你想要用NVIDIA的显卡，就得自己去买卡，然后从NVIDIA官网下载驱动，或者更早的时候，驱动是随显卡附赠的光盘或软盘。

So on the PC, if you ever wanted to use an NVIDIA graphics card, you bought the card and you downloaded drivers from NVIDIA, or before that they came on a CD or a floppy disk that came with your graphics card.

所以三十年来，大家一直都在问：你装的是不是最新的NVIDIA驱动？

And so for thirty years, this whole thing was like, Do you have the latest NVIDIA drivers?

你从哪儿获取这些驱动？

Where do you get them?

我们从换新光盘，到换DVD，再到用FTP，最后变成直接从网上下载。

And we went from getting a new CD to getting a new DVD to FTP to downloading them from the web.

这原本是个完整的循环，但直到Windows 7我们才把它变成系统的核心功能，接入了Windows更新之类的机制。

It was a whole cycle, but it was never a first class part of Windows until we fixed that in Windows seven and got them on Windows Update and all this other stuff.

在PC上做图形处理，你随时可以下载NVIDIA的库直接调用。

And the APIs on a PC to do graphics, you could always just download the NVIDIA library and call them.

但Windows官方的图形接口是DirectX，它做的是同样的事，只是方式完全不一样——那个X指的是Xbox。

But the official Windows APIs were DirectX, and they just did the same kind of thing just completely differently, that the X is Xbox.

所以微软全力投入了DirectX接口。

And so Microsoft was all in on the DirectX APIs.

从Windows Vista首次整合开始，到之后的Windows 7，它就成了系统发布里非常重要的一部分。

They were a huge part of the Windows release called Windows Vista when they first got integrated and then Windows seven forward.

然后是NVIDIA自己的接口，一开始只是NVIDIA专用的，后来演变成了CUDA。

Then there were the NVIDIA APIs, which at first were just the NVIDIA APIs, then they became CUDA.

至于图形方面，NVIDIA后来也拥抱了开源的OpenGL标准。

Then for graphics, NVIDIA embraced this open thing called OpenGL.

苹果公司也经历过一模一样的过程。

And then Apple went through the same exact thing.

在 Mac 上，你可以下载驱动程序，安装 NVIDIA 显卡，它们也曾支持过 OpenGL，但始终希望你用它们自家的东西。

On the Mac, could download drivers, you could install an NVIDIA card, but the APIs and then they supported OpenGL for a while, but they'd always wanted you to use their own stuff.

而手机彻底淘汰了这一切，Variable 也把这套东西都废了，苹果彻底走上了自己的路。

And the phone did away with all of that, and Variable did away with all that, and it was all in on Apple.

对苹果来说，好消息是原生图形性能一直非常出色，从来就没差过。

Now the good news for Apple was the native graphics were just outstanding, and they've always been great.

在 PC 方面，英特尔落得太远了，导致大家用 Photoshop、做视频或者搞图形密集型工作时，都只能选 NVIDIA 或者 ATI/AMD。

On the PC side, Intel was so far behind that it just kept pulling both, NVIDIA and ATIAMD to be what you used if you used Photoshop or made movies or were just graphic intensive.

所以在接下来几周，我们就能知道苹果打算怎么处理这些 API，更重要的是，它们的模型和运行时环境会怎么搞。

And so in the next few weeks, we'll know what Apple is going to do for these APIs and more importantly, the models themselves and the runtime.

NVIDIA 在开源模型上投入巨大，还通过自家硬件对这些模型做了大量优化。

I mean, NVIDIA has an enormous investment in the open source models and tuning them through their hardware.

生态系统也做得不错，从 Mac mini 的表现就能看出来，它们把这套 API 适配得挺到位，但这跟手机完全没关系。

And the ecosystem has done a great job as evidenced by the Mac minis of tuning those APIs for the Mac, but that has nothing to do with the phones.

所以这本质上是操作系统的差异。

And so that's an operating system difference.

用手机的人数很多，而且我们都知道，硬件基本是一样的。

And the number of phone people is large, and as we know, the hardware is the same.

当然也不是完全一样，内存啊、各种配置这些还是有差别的。

Now it's not quite the same, blah, blah, blah, amount of memory, all that stuff.

但真正有趣的是，看看微软怎么做，再看看苹果会怎么选择。

But it's very interesting to see the details of Microsoft and then what Apple chooses to do.

没错。

Right.

很明显，现在内存资源很紧张。

Obviously, we are seeing memory shortage.

对吧？

Right?

那你觉得，这种纯AI驱动的计算设备，最终会卖多少钱？

Like And so what do you expect the cost to a consumer of this kind of, like, you know, very AI native computing device to cost?

毕竟我经历过好几次元器件短缺，通常就是等一等，让本地的Mac或者Mac mini来决定未来的发展方向。

Well, certainly, for the having lived through, like, a half dozen component shortage things, you just sort of wait them out and you let some local Macs or local min determine the future.

这种情况很快就会自己解决的。

This will all correct itself in short order.

不管是内存、硬盘还是处理器短缺，历史上这类问题来来去去，甚至更小的零部件也一样。

The history of it, whether it's been DRAM or hard drives or processor shortage, all of these things, we've had them come and go, or even smaller components.

所以我一点都不担心。

So I'm not worried about it at all.

如果你觉得普通消费设备非得配96或128GB内存，而MacBook Neo才8GB，那差距确实很大。

I mean, if you're thinking that you need 96 or 128 gig for a standard consumer device versus, say, the eight on a MacBook Neo, there's a huge difference.

不过，这些配置在新机型上也会变的。

But also that will change in the models too.

现在这些模型都是为大型数据中心优化的。

Like right now, the models themselves are all tuned to run-in hyperscale data centers.

每个月好像都有新论文说，我们把推理流程里的一大块给砍掉了。

And every month it seems like there's a new paper that says, Oh, we cleaved this giant thing off of the inference pipeline.

所以现在根本不需要那么多内存了。

So now we don't need nearly as much memory.

所以这些问题都会解决的。

So that all will get fixed.

我对这个问题根本一点都不担心。

Not even an inkling of concern I have for that problem.

另外一件事是昨天刚公布的，上次我们聊的时候，你对苹果的 MacBook Neo 非常兴奋，觉得它是定义品类的产品。

So another thing that was just announced yesterday was last time we talked, you were very, very excited about the MacBook Neo for Apple as a category defining product.

戴尔刚推出了一款新的 XPS 13，他们说配置上比 MacBook Neo 略好一点。

Dell just came out with a new XPS 13 that is, they say slightly better

好。

better

但价格却贵了差不多一百美元。

specs specs on on the MacBook Neo, and it's like $100 more expensive.

那 Neo 现在多少钱来着？

So the Neo is like what is it?

学生价四百，其他人五百？

It's 400 for students, 500 for everyone else?

599，699。

599, 699.

59699。

59699.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

这个。

This

我觉得是5001.99美元。

$5,001.99, I think.

是的。

Yeah.

XPS 13 是 599 美元，699 美元。

The XPS 13 is $5.99, $6.99.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

MacBook Neo 是 499 美元，599 美元。

MacBook Neo is $4.99, $5.99.

对。

Yeah.

那你对这个怎么看？

So what are your takes on this?

得给戴尔点个赞。

Well, kudos to Dell.

戴尔的表现真的很出色，迈克尔·戴尔更是位传奇的首席执行官。

Dell is just an incredible role, and Michael Dell is just a legendary CEO.

读过他的书，就是疫情期间推出的那本第二部作品，我记得是那时候，或者前后不久。

Read his book, his second book that came out during the pandemic, I think, or right after or right before.

真的特别棒。

It's fantastic.

很长一段时间里，我都会推荐XPS 13，朋友家人要买笔记本，我第一个想到的就是它。

Actually, I was 13 for a very long time was sort of my go to laptop when friends and family and whatever would ask for one.

它简直就是最好的笔记本。

It is like the best laptop.

后来设计上稍微走偏了，变得有点怪，但现在又强势回归了。

And then it took a little bit of a dip and went in a funky way on design, and it is actually back with a vengeance now.

所以现在要买笔记本，XPS 13就是首选。

And so XPS 13 is the laptop to get.

最新这款是在原有机身基础上升级，用了英特尔的某款处理器，名字我实在记不住了。

Now this latest one is an attempt to build on that same chassis using Intel thirty years, I can't keep track of the names.

叫什么Panther Lake、Python Lake，或者Crystal Lake之类的。

Panther Lake, Python Lake, something Crystal Lake.

我不清楚那到底是什么。

I don't know what it is.

就是个什么湖吧。

It's some lake.

英特尔总用些我没去过的地名来命名。

Intel names are always places I've never been.

美洲豹湖。

Panther Lake.

这叫英特尔铁轨。

It's the Intel Rails.

大家对它挺期待的。

There's a lot of excitement about it.

它确实整合了一些AI计算功能，但并不是PC生态想主推的机型，它的能力也和他们想卖的那些不一样，而那又和Neo不同，Neo才具备真正需要瞄准的能力。

It does integrate some of the AI compute stuff into it, but it's not gonna be the target machine that the PC ecosystem wants to sell, and its capabilities are gonna be different from the ones that they do wanna sell, which is different than the Neo, which has the capabilities that need to be targeted.

苹果的硬件产品线在性能上相当统一。

So the Apple hardware line has a lot of homogeneity in it in terms of capability.

但个人电脑市场的表现就特别参差不齐，PC行业一直都有这个难题：就算真的出了一款能打的机型，它也不会是你去百思买门店里，跟导购说想买台电脑的时候，对方会优先推给你的那台。

But PCs can become really hit or miss, and that's always been the difficulty in the PC ecosystem is even when there's a winning machine, it's not the one that when you walk into Best Buy and say, I need to buy a computer or help me Mr.

不管是男导购还是女导购都一样。

Or Mrs.

那些销售只会靠提成、当前的广告之类的指标来给你推荐产品。

Salesman, and then they just direct you to something based on spiff and current ads or whatever.

所以咱们还是拭目以待吧。

So we'll see.

我敢肯定它是一台质量过硬的机器。

I'm sure it's a quality machine.

你在X平台上看到那些科技圈的人都在站队。

You have the tech people on X talking about taking sides.

要么被吹成‘Neo杀手’，就因为它带了个HDMI接口之类的；要么就被觉得让PC生态很尴尬，毕竟它还是跑Windows的。

It's either the neo killer because it has an HDMI port or whatever, or it's like embarrassing to the PC ecosystem because regardless it still runs Windows.

这些极端的说法都挺没意义的。

Those extremes are stupid.

Neo 和这台机器的目标用户，就是那些只需要一台电脑的人。

Bear with the Neo and this machine are targeted at just people who need a computer.

我觉得五年后，需要电脑的人，也会需要一台能运行智能代理的电脑。

I think in five years, people who need a computer will also need a computer that runs agents.

但五年后，硬件和软件的世界会变得完全不一样。

But the hardware software world will be unimaginably different in five years.

所以现在的这些讨论，跟五年后市场上会有的产品根本没关系。

So this conversation has no relevance to the product lines that will be available in five years.

天啊，真没想到。

So, wow.

最高配有32GB内存和1TB存储空间。

It goes up to 32 gigs of RAM and a terabyte of storage.

起步是8GB内存，说实话，这配置有点不够看。

It starts at eight gigs of RAM, which is, like, not great, I guess.

五代、十二代

Five, twelve gigs

八吉字对一台电脑来说可不够好。

That's of not good that's not a good number for a PC.

对。

Yeah.

苹果电脑起步就是八吉字。

The Mac would do eight.

我本来不想这么说，但过去几个月我确实接触过不少这类设备，当时我们团队花了大量精力把内存降到两吉和四吉。

The PC is I hate saying it because and I truly had a bunch of these over the past month, six months or so, but I spent a lot of energy with our team on getting the memory down to two and four gigs at the time.

但八吉肯定够呛。

But eight is gonna be hard.

现在Windows正在这方面做不少优化，咱们等着看结果吧。

Now Windows is doing a lot of work right now on that, so we'll see where that goes.

但如果你现在问我该买哪款电脑，我会建议你选十六吉的。

But right now, if you ask me about what PC to buy, I would send you to a 16 gig PC.

这得花不少功夫。

Takes work.

要把内存降到八吉字节，还得搞一堆技术活，比如卸载一堆没用的程序，折腾这折腾那，这些事你都不好意思跟人说。

It takes like techy work to get it down to be eight gig reasonable, like uninstalling a bunch of stuff, bang around, stuff that you wouldn't you shouldn't tell anyone

对。

to do.

你推荐哪款电脑？

Like, which PC would you recommend?

有没有具体的笔记本型号？

Like, a specific laptop?

戴尔XPS 13怎么样？

Dell XPS 13?

我会选戴尔XPS 13。

I would get a Dell XPS 13.

你觉得微软的

What do you think about the

Surface系列现在怎么样？

Surface lineup right now?

嗯，没错。

Well, yeah.

好吧。

Okay.

说实话，我对Surface系列产品肯定有偏见。

Look, I'm obviously not objective about the Surface lineup.

当年我们设计Surface的时候，我就写了整整八千万字的分析，这些内容大家都可以去Hardcore Software上看，我就不在这儿重复了，那些我们做对了和做错了的地方。

I think that the PC when we designed Surface, and I wrote like 80,000,000 words on this, which everybody could go see on Hardcore Software, I'm not gonna replay them here about what we did wrong and right.

但最初，Surface的定位是打破PC平台的固有格局。

But originally Surface was envisioned to be those platform discontinuity in PCs.

它要推动行业转向移动芯片、ARM架构，以及平板这样的移动形态。

It was going to be the move to mobile chips, ARM, and mobile form factors like a tablet.

我们最终推出的是可转换平板，但本质上还是当平板来做的。

We shipped it as a convertible tablet, but as a tablet.

我们确实出过基于Intel x86的Surface，那时候我们管它叫‘应对质疑的工具’。

We actually did an Intel x86 based Surface, and at the time we called it an objection handler.

而它的作用就是应对人们对ARM版Surface的那些不满。

And it was to handle the objection of things you didn't like about the ARM based Surface.

比如它跑不了现有的软件，不兼容旧程序之类的。

You know, like that it didn't run existing software, it wasn't compatible with old software or whatever.

所以，我内心始终支持ARM的策略，就是主动推动这种转变——你看，世界已经不一样了。

And so my heart and the strategy for Arm was always to introduce this discontinuity where, look, the world is different now.

硬件环境变了，使用场景变了，便携性也变了。

The hardware world is different now, the usage scenarios are different now, and portability is different.

人们更想要更长的续航。

People want better battery life.

他们不想再看到风扇。

They don't want fans.

也不想再被病毒这些烦人的东西困扰。

They don't want viruses and all that other stuff.

但最终没成功。

Didn't work.

我搬到了旧金山地区，去跟创业者们聊聊。

I moved down to San Francisco area to talk to founders and stuff.

微软后来差不多放弃了ARM，整整八年都专注于解决兼容性问题。

And what Microsoft did was sort of basically abandon ARM for the next eight years or so and focus on the objection handler side of things.

所以之后推出的Surface，在我看来都只是小众产品，本质上就是些不一样的Intel电脑，对我没什么吸引力。

So all the surfaces that followed were in my mind a niche product because they were just like different Intel PCs that weren't super important to me.

我确实每款都买过，但它们对我来说并不重要。

I mean, I had brought each one of them, but they weren't important to me.

AI带来了新的契机，让PC能面向未来，而不是总盯着过去。

AI introduces yet another opportunity to change that dynamic for the PC to have it be forward looking, not backward looking.

我觉得这对微软，对整个行业来说，都是一个极其重要的机会。

And I think this is incredibly important opportunity for Microsoft and for the industry as a whole.

但这次的状况跟2011年不一样了，现在用的是移动芯片，使用场景也完全不同。

But Wire, it's different like it was in 2011 in that it's mobile chips and the scenario is different.

更重要的是，80%的普通PC用户其实就用浏览器干活，他们要的只是键盘和外形，而且喜欢Mac，因为用久了也不容易旧。

Even more so, 80% of the typical PC buyers are just running browser based compute and they just want the keyboard, the form factor, and they like Macs because they don't wear down over time.

它们的电池续航是真的扎实。

They have all their battery life for real.

病毒和恶意软件，完全是另一回事。

They have the viruses and malware, a whole different game.

这就像我们以前说的那种封闭式设计。

It's sort of this sealed case that we used to call it.

当年转向ARM的PC还屏蔽了所有Windows API，而我们偏偏没这么做。

PCs that did move to ARM also thwarted all of the Windows APIs, which was the thing we chose not to do.

现在这些新出的ARM电脑，还是老样子：同样的病毒、同样的风扇噪音、同样的用久了就掉链子。

So now the new PCs running ARM are just the old PCs with the same viruses, the same problems with fans, the same, lack of quality over time.

传统Windows用户遇到问题，第一反应就是去改注册表。

The classic Windows thing is, oh, you could just go edit the registry.

可你要是真去改ARM电脑的注册表，把系统折腾坏了，那可就彻底完蛋了。

Well, if you have an ARM PC, you could still go edit the registry and you could still work your PC totally, and then you're you're screwed.

所以我觉得，总盯着过去没意思——这也让我想起昨晚那些关于备用笔记本的评论。

And so I don't I just don't think that backward looking is the thing, which brings us to last night and all the ex comments on the the the spare laptops.

大家立刻就想到两个问题。

And everybody immediately jumping to two things.

首先，英伟达宣布他们能让所有现有的 Windows 程序在新系统上运行，这其实只是微软把 Win32 移植到 ARM 的延续，这本身并不难。

First, NVIDIA announced that they're all gonna run all existing Windows programs, which of course just follows from Microsoft's strategy of learning Win32 to ARM, which wasn't hard.

我们早就做过这件事了。

We'd already done it.

当时只是打开了开发工具，允许加载应用，但我们当初故意在 ARM 上禁用了这些功能，为的是推动整个生态走向新的操作系统 API。

It was just opening up the dev tools and the ability to load the apps and things, which we disabled for ARM because we wanted to move the ecosystem forward to a new OS API.

但另一方面，关键是怎么包装这个事，让它看起来像是在照顾兼容性。

But then the other part of this is just how you spin the whole thing in terms of backward compatibility.

然后他们说：‘哦，所有历史上的应用都能跑。’

And then they said, Oh, it runs every single app of all time.

问题是，你其实并不想这么做。

It's like, Yeah, but you don't want to do that.

更重要的是，第二点：你根本不需要这么做。

And more importantly, the second thing is you don't need it anymore.

所有发烧友都疯了，觉得英特尔要被英伟达取代了，这说法在概念上没错，但其实也没那么回事。

All of the enthusiasts are going nuts because they see it as Intel being replaced by NVIDIA, which is conceptually true, except not really.

这只是一个替代方案而已。

It's just an alternative.

市场上真正会出现的，不过是价格上的比拼。

And what you're going to see in the marketplace is just sort of this price comparison.

英特尔和英伟达会互相压价，但最后只有其中一家能撑得住这场消耗战。

And Intel and NVIDIA are just going to drive the prices to each other, and only one of them can really afford the battle.

但这并不会改变消费者真正想要的东西——他们其实根本不需要什么向后兼容。

But that doesn't change the value proposition for consumers, which is what they really want is to not have that backward compatibility.

只是他们自己还没意识到罢了。

They just don't know it.

如果你买一台没风扇的电脑，不能改注册表，不会被误删系统文件，也进不了系统文件夹乱操作——就像现在用Mac或者手机时根本不会去想这些事，那才是PC该有的样子。

If they got a PC without a fan, that you couldn't edit the registry, you couldn't break it, you couldn't just go into the system folder and delete stuff, all of these things that you don't even think about on a Mac anymore and you can't even think about on a phone, you don't want them on the PC.

所以我很不理解微软为什么还要拥抱这种思路，我知道，要是想卖企业市场，确实得跑2003年的VB程序，但其实根本没必要。

And so it's tough for me to see Microsoft sort of embracing this because I understand, like if you want to sell the enterprise, you have to run that VB app from 2003, but you don't need to do that.

你完全可以把它部署在服务器上，然后远程连接使用。

You could just put it on a server and remote into it.

你也可以把它装在x86机器的虚拟机里。

You could put it in a VM on an x86 machine.

实现这种方式的方法多得是。

There's a million ways to do that.

你根本没必要在运行代理的那台机器上直接运行它。

You just don't need to run it on the machine that you want to run your agents on.

短期内，大家都会用终端来操作。

And in the short term, everybody is going to be running terminal anyway.

现在的这些代理本质上都是无界面的。

And these agents in today's agents are all headless anyway.

这一点将来也会变。

That will change too.

但眼下，我们正站在一个岔路口上，微软已经明确表示了他们的方向——他们希望NVIDIA芯片来承担Windows一直以来的所有功能，这在客户调研中反响很好，直到你提醒他们：可那些注册表编辑器和管理员脚本，真的给我们添了不少麻烦。

But right now, that's the big We hit this fork in the road and Microsoft has already said the direction that they want to take it, which is they just want NVIDIA chips to do all the things that Windows has always done, which always tests well with customers until you say the customer's like, Yeah, but those registry editors and admin scripts and stuff really screwed us up.

这个我们心里清楚。

And like, we know.

我们早就知道这一点。

We know this.

所以我很难认同这种做法。

So it's tough for me to see.

对。

Yep.

我们真的很期待今年晚些时候发布的NVIDIA Spark笔记本。

Well, we're really excited for the NVIDIA Spark laptops to come out later this year.

看看它能不能取代我的MacBook。

We'll see if it can replace my MacBook.

是的。

Yeah.

我还不太确定。

I'm not I'm not sure.

咱们走着瞧吧。

We'll see.

对。

Yeah.

我们会在直播里做个技术评测。

We'll do we'll do a tech review on stream.

是的。

Yeah.

其实，如果你现在就买戴尔推出的这款Spark迷你设备，就能大概知道它会是什么样子了。

Well, I have the I mean, you could see what it's gonna be like if you just have the the the Spark that you could get from Dell today.

那是个小型设备。

That's the the mini device.

我有一台，效果太棒了。

I have one of those, and it's incredible.

我的主机也是塔式机箱。

I mean, it's just it's it's my end is a tower as well.

好的。

Alright.

那我们来看看这个。

Well, we'll take a look at that.

Steven，非常感谢你加入我们。

Steven, thank you so much for joining us.

不客气。

Sure.

谢谢大家。

Thank you, guys.

感谢您收听本集的 a16z 播客。

Thanks for listening to this episode of the a 16 z podcast.

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