隐藏在支付领域的1000亿美元利基市场

我之所以不太愿意跟TrialPay打交道，是因为我真的不想再碰支付公司了。

Part of my reluctance to deal with trial pay was like, I can't handle another near payments company.

我当初选择社交媒体是有原因的。

Like, I went into social media for a reason.

我不想跟这些东西有任何关系。

Don't want anything to do with this stuff.

所以当我慢慢被拉回支付领域的时候，我们开始讨论这个想法。

And so I as I was slowly getting reeled back into working on payments, We started talking about this.

我们讨论它的时候，经常用“社交BML”这样的简称。

The sort of a social BML was one of the sort of shorthands we used this discussing what it would be.

这个类比挺有意思的，因为同时，我其实不记得我们俩谁先知道这个的，因为你也说日语，这可能是你告诉我的。

The general sort of analogy was interesting because at the same time I don't actually remember which one of us knew this because you also speak Japanese, and this this could be the thing you told me.

但我记得我读过关于不同经济体中的社会信用。

But I remember reading about social credit in different economies.

在以色列的杂货店里，有一种“先付后付”或“下次再付”的概念，现在还很常见。

There's a notion of just pay me later or pay me next time in Israeli grocery stores, which is still common today.

如果你在以色列结账，显然，在一个足够小的小镇上，你只要把包给收银员看一下，他们就会记住你，如果你忘了带钱，下次再付就行。

If you're checking out in Israel, apparently, in a small enough town, you can just show your bag to the cashier, they'll remember, and then they'll get you next time if you forgot your money.

这在日本更加正式，直到最近，即使不认识你，你也会把名片给店主。

This is even more formalized in Japan where until very recently, would give your business card to the storekeeper even if they didn't know you.

如果你有名片，他们会在名片背面写下你买的东西，那就是你的账单。

If you had a business card, they would write what you bought on the back of it, and that was your total.

而且，像“记在我账上”这种概念，显然是个挺美国的想法。

And the notion of, like, you just put it on my tab is a thing that's, you know, obviously, fairly American concept and so on.

所以我们就在往这个方向靠拢。

And so we were converging on this.

当时我在跟一家初创公司聊天，算是了解一下这个行业，他们想建一个社会信用评分，模仿中国的社会信用体系，当然那个体系用途远不止信用。

I was talking to a start up at the time as kind of just learning about the industry that was trying to build a social credit score, kind of modeling it on the Chinese social score, which is used for a lot more than than credit, obviously.

所以我们一直在围绕支付这个想法打转，解决“我没带证件，但我还是得通过”这个问题。

And so we we were swirling around this idea of payments and solving the I don't have my credentials with me, but I still need to get through this.

另一个类似的比喻是，我在看电视。

Like, another sort of metaphorical version of this was I'm watching TV.

以前有个特别酷的广告，那时候人们还在电视节目之间插播广告。

There's this really cool ad back in the day when people had advertisements in between things and TV.

我真的很想要广告里承诺的那个东西，以那个承诺的价格，但我可以在手机上搞定，可我绝对不想从床上爬起来。

And I really want the thing that was promised to me at the price that was promised to me, but I could do it on my phone, but I'm definitely not gonna get off my bed.

所以，如果通过缩短这些交易的时间、提高转化率，能捕捉到曲线下的某个区域呢？

And so, like, what if there's some area under the curve that you can capture by bringing these transactions closer in time and improving conversion, obviously.

所以，这就是我们那个有点绕的起源故事。

So that that's the kind of the the the swirly origin story.

我觉得我们俩对什么好玩有不同的看法。

A lot of it I think the two of us had a slightly different version of what would be fun.

所以，作为支付行业的人，你主要想的是，咱们去做点支付相关的事吧。

So I think you, as a payments guy, you were mostly thinking, like, let's go do some payments stuff.

而我呢，刚从为社交媒体做机器学习的工作中恢复过来，那工作虽然不错，但并不是我真正想做的，我一直渴望回到用机器学习打击欺诈的日子。

As a person recovering from doing lots of machine learning in the service of social media, which was, you know, good and well, but wasn't really what I was meant to do, and lusting for the days of doing machine learning to fight fraud.

我的想法是，我只想建一个超酷的信用评分系统。

My MO was, I just wanna build a really cool credit score.

然后其他人会负责支付，比如借贷支付广告之类的。

And then someone else will take care of payments, like a lending payments ad.

我对那个不太了解，而且我已经做过支付了。

Don't really know anything about it, and I've done payments.

不需要做借贷。

Don't need to do lending.

但是建立一个超酷的信用评分，那会很棒，因为我记得我们在PayPal能接触到海量的数据。

But building a really cool score, that would be amazing because I remember just the reams of data we had access to at PayPal.

我们也许能搞到一些数据。

We could maybe get some data.

也许可以买一些数据，我们还能从Facebook上挖掘数据。

Maybe you could buy some data, we can mine Facebook for data.

我甚至试着联系马克·扎克伯格，看看他能不能给我一些他的数据。

I'm both trying to get in touch with Mark Zuckerberg to see if he might give me some of his data.

所以很多这些想法都在我脑子里，而你呢，就想着，我只想完成一些交易。

And so a lot of that was sort of in my head while you were like, I just wanna close some transactions.

我觉得，如果说咱们的动机有什么不同的话，你更倾向于去找商家。

I think that that maybe if there if there's any difference between the the motivations, you were much more motivated by, let's go find a merchant.

其实我们的动机挺像的，比如TrialPay，当时我们正处在卖给PayPal的过程中，但他们最后放了我鸽子。

Well, the similar motivation was like, you know, trial pay, I think we were in the throes of selling to PayPal, but then they left me at the altar.

不是你们那个PayPal，是后来好几代的PayPal。

Not your PayPal, but many generations later PayPal.

我当时就想，我再也不想创业了。

And I was like, I never wanna start a company again.

这太痛苦了。

This is so painful.

你也经历过那种煎熬，所以也是想着赶紧把这事儿干起来，然后我们雇人，后来你把我介绍给Nathan和Jeff，我们就正式成立了公司。

You had been the throes of that as well, so it was also like, let's get this thing going, and we'll hire other well, then you introduced me to Nathan and Jeff, and we kind of formally incorporated.

但还有一件事我记得特别清楚，你可能会觉得不太好，因为那是PHP，我们开了个会。

But I I also like, the other thing that I distinctly remember, and you'll you you remember this in a very negative light because it's PHP, but we had a meeting.

我觉得起源应该是2012年的Allen and Company会议。

I kind of think of the origin as being the Allen and Company conference in 2012.

对，是的。

Oh, yeah.

别把它想得太负面。

Don't find it a negative thing.

不不，我知道，但这事儿挺逗的。

No, no, I know, but it was funny.

所以我们就开了个会，跟San一起过名单，你还记得你那位老幕僚长吧？我们一边过名单一边聊，说哎，Jim McCann我们也认识啊，就是那个特别随和的家伙，以前经常上那个1-800-FLOWERS的花店广告，就是那种‘现在从我这儿订花’之类的广告。

So we have this meeting, like, so we're going through the list with San, remember your So old chief of staff, we're going through the list and it's like, oh, we both know Jim McCann, who's this very friendly guy who used to be on all the commercials for one-eight hundred Flowers, or one-eight hundred Flowers, you can order flowers, order it right now from me, or whatever the commercial was.

所以我们约了他吃个早餐。那是个两百人的大会，谁都能跟谁碰面，我们就说，嘿，要不一起吃个早饭？

So we ping him to get a breakfast meeting, It was like 200 person conference, anybody can be with anybody, but it's like, hey, why don't we have breakfast?

我熬了个大夜做这个演示。基本上就是克隆了一个1800Flowers的网站，然后加上了用身份支付的功能。现在AI几秒钟就能搞定，但我当时可是实打实地克隆了一遍。

And I I pulled like an all nighter making this demo in PHPI, basically like cloned it's just funny, like, AI can do this in five seconds now, but I I I cloned one eight hundred Flowers site, and then made a whole, like, pay with your identity.

所以你在结账的时候……

So you do a checkout.

就像往购物车里加一打玫瑰那样，算是弥补一下我之前干的那些糟心事吧。

You, like, add the dozen roses to, you know, make up for the bad stuff that I did.

发给我老婆。

Sending it to my wife.

点支付。

Click pay.

哦，她没带我的银行卡。

Oh, she don't have my my my payment card with me.

哦，我可以用Facebook付款。

Oh, I can pay with Facebook.

这有什么用？

What does that do?

它会通过 Facebook 登录，并确认我有超过 500 个好友。

It does Facebook connect and make sure that I have over 500 friends.

其实说到你刚才提到的点，Facebook 确实掌握了很多有趣的数据。

And actually Facebook had I mean, to your point, they had a lot of interesting data.

他们内部还有一些标记，用来判断这个账号是否可疑。

They had their own internal flags around did they think this account was fraudulent or not.

那时候说的欺诈账户，更多是指刚创建的、不是真实账户的那种。

And fraudulent for back then was more of like, it was just created not as a real account.

它不是真人。

It wasn't a real person.

因为账户不等于人。

Because an account is not a person.

对吧？

Right?

希望它们是一回事，但也不一定，因为一个人可以有好几个账户。

Hopefully, they're the same thing, but not necessarily, because one person can have multiple accounts.

但如果是一对一的话，那这就是我们那个有趣的演示。然后我记得吉姆说，这太棒了。

But if there's one to one so so that was that was our fun demo, then I remember Jim became like, this is great.

我们来做吧。

Let's do it.

对。

Yeah.

所以从那次经历中，我还有两个有趣的细节。

So I two other colorful points from that.

那顿早餐吃得很愉快，吃到一半的时候，他突然说，哦，对了。

So it was a good breakfast, and then in the middle of it, he goes, oh, yeah.

我们以前经常做这种事，那时候军人会打电话给我们说，给我妻子送些花。

We used to do exactly this thing back in the day when the service members would call us and say, send me my wife some flowers.

然后说，不。

And no.

我身上没带信用卡。

I don't have my credit card with me.

我们就说，哦，那没关系。

And we're like, oh, that that's fine.

比如，你知道，感谢你的服务。

Like, you know, thank you for your service.

我们下次再帮你安排吧。

We'll we'll just get you on the next one.

而且他好像凭直觉就明白了这个道理，就是说，只要有足够的信任，你完全可以先提供服务后付款。

And he, like, intuitively grokked this idea that, like, you can absolutely post pay a thing if you have enough trust.

我们当时基本上就是举手表示，我们愿意承担这个责任，你知道，如果他们不付钱，也没关系。

And we were basically there raising our hands saying, we'll take the responsibility for, you know, if they don't pay you, it's okay.

就是说，我们会自己承担这个损失。

It's we're we're gonna eat it.

所以他当时立刻就对我们产生了好感。

And so he was, like, instantly smitten.

而且，你知道，从那次早餐之后，他一直都是这个产品的坚定支持者，也是我职业生涯中一个非常支持我的人。

And, you know, he he had been a great proponent of the product and, like, a supportive per you know, person slash presence in my professional life ever since that breakfast.

他完全没有理由信任我们，除了他多少能感觉到我们是什么样的人。

And had absolutely no reason to trust us other than, like, he has some degree of sense who we were.

然后他说，你们太棒了。

And he was like, you guys are great.

你们看起来真的很专业，你知道，你们在做什么。

You seem like you're really, you know What are doing?

他当时特别兴奋。

He was so excited.

我完全不知道怎么回事。

I have no idea.

后来我们被转交给了那个人，他叫什么来着？

Well, then we got handed to this what was his name?

他现在经营着一家很成功的初创公司，就是那个叫阿米尔的人。

He actually now runs a successful start The the guy that was Amit.

阿米特。

Amit.

对。

Yes.

阿米特·沙阿。

Amit Shah.

对。

Yes.

对。

Yeah.

所以Amit接手了。

So Amit took over.

我们实施了。

We implemented.

他非常非常兴奋。

He was very, very excited.

但记得我在微软的时候，

But and I remember I I I came up in Microsoft.

我好像是在Word或者Excel里做的。

I think I did this in Microsoft Word or Excel.

就像，这是我们的定价表。

Like, here's our pricing sheet.

这是定价表的链接。

Here's me to the pricing sheet.

我当时就说，我们为什么不收7%呢？

And I was like, why don't we charge 7%?

就是说，在消费金融里，这类东西有个概念叫MDR和APR。

Like, so the in in consumer finance for these things, there's a concept of an MDR and an APR.

商户折扣率，因为你给商户的钱是打了折扣的，因为你提前垫付了现金，要过一段时间才能收回。

So merchant discount rate, because you're discounting what you pay the merchant, because you're advancing in the cash right now, you're not collecting it until later.

所以，就叫7%的商户折扣率吧，但我觉得当时好像有个表格，其实是我瞎编的。

So, call it a 7% merchant discount rate, but I think there was like some table, I just literally made this up.

然后还有个APR，但这里的APR其实没有，只有MDR。

And then there was an APR, but the APR here, there was no APR, it was just MDR.

但后来没人，我拿这个给别人看，我记得是罗伯·普法伊费尔，在我们雇真正的财务员工之前。

But then nobody, like I showed this to somebody, I think it was Rob Pfeiffer actually, before we hired I

对，就是那种真正的财务人员。

had, like, a real finance employee.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，但是，我给他看了这个。

So but but I I showed him this.

他说，哦，免费的花。

Was like, oh, free flowers.

对吧？

Right?

因为他说，你只是不用还我们钱。

Because he's like, you just didn't have to pay us back.

对。

Mhmm.

所以那笔投资的回报并不怎么样。

So the the returns were not fantastic on that.

太讽刺了。

So cynical.

但是，是的，我记得他确实说了免费的花。

But, yeah, I think he literally said free flowers.

这就像是，这真是免费的好工作，他

It's like, is this is a great job of free He's

就是个非常聪明但非常愤世嫉俗的人。

just generally a very smart, but very cynical guy.

所以我们不会被一些冷嘲热讽所困扰。

So we we we were not gonna be perturbed by some cynicism.

我喜欢罗布。

I love Rob.

他姐姐以前为我工作过。

His sister used to work for me.

所以我记得在Affirm的背景下采访过他。

So I remember interviewing him in the context of Affirm.

虽然，我想那时候还是叫Expedite。

Although, I think at the time, was still expedite.

对。

Yeah.

它短暂地以Expedite这个名字存在过。

It briefly bumped around as expedite.

对。

Yeah.

然后我们最终改了名字。

And then we finally renamed it.

它叫什么？

What was it?

它是以Expedite Software Inc.的名义注册的。

It was it was incorporated as expedite software inc.

是的。

Yep.

我觉得是这样。

I think that's right.

那么，从那时起，这个想法是如何演变的呢？

And so how did the idea evolve as you, you know, went from there?

什么时候开始真正找到产品市场契合点，或者这个领域是怎么发展成那样的？

When did it start to really get get product market fit, or how did the space play out in a way that

每个创业公司都会经历一段漫长的低谷期。

Every startup has the forty years in the desert.

这是必然的。

Like, it's just a a given.

如果值得被谈论的话，那肯定都经历过。

Like, if it's worth talking about exposed.

有些创业公司，人们可能太早放弃，或者发生了一些事情把它毁掉了。

I mean, some startups, people just, like, quit too early or, you know, something happens to to destroy it.

但我从没见过哪家公司，一开始就立刻找到产品市场契合点，然后二十四小时后就开始大卖，一切顺风顺水。

But I've never run into a company where people start a company and they just, like, hit product market fit, and twenty four hours later, they're just selling and, you know, everything's going swimmingly.

所以总会有一段时期，你仍然觉得去上班是有意义的，但你真的不知道最终会不会变成一场空。

So you you always have this period where, like, kinda still makes sense to show up to work, but you don't really know if it's gonna end in, like, a great nothing.

而我们确实在那种迷茫期里徘徊了一段时间。

And we were definitely meandering through the great nothing period for a while.

在“百花”之后，我们和赛义德·艾哈迈德几乎没停过交流，他对转化率和用户界面一直不满意。

After 100 Flowers, we had a sort of nonstop interactions with said Ahmed who was never happy with the conversion rates, with the user interface.

而且他大部分时候是对的。

There's and he was mostly right.

他这人有点脾气大、要求高，但从产品和财务角度看，他确实懂行，而且他肯定不会付7%的费用。

Like, he he was kind of a grumpy, demanding guy, but he knew what he was talking about from the product and financials perspective, and he was definitely not gonna pay 7%.

所以我们当时就这么勉强撑着。

And so we were sort of limping through that.

我们确实产生了一些交易量，但除此之外，还有一个问题，就是“嘿，”

We're generating a little bit of volume, but among other things, the notion of, hey.

你可以在选完花之后再付款。

You can pay us later showed up after you selected the flowers.

所以你会说，你看，

And so you say, look.

你们这是在抢我的信用卡交易量。

You guys are cannibalizing my credit card volume.

如果我不收费的话，当然会给你更多交易量，但你收的比信用卡还贵。

If I charged if if I were charging nothing for it, of course, I'd send you more transactures, but you're charging me more than credit cards.

所以这真是个愚蠢的主意。

So it's it's a dumb idea.

我根本不想为它付任何钱。

Like, I don't wanna pay anything for it at all.

你知道吗，你们基本上应该感到羞愧。

You know, you guys ought be ashamed of yourself, basically.

我们当时试图说服其他商家，但有一个商家基本上在说，是的。

And we were sort of trying to convince other merchants, but we had one merchant that was essentially saying, yeah.

我的意思是，这些人都是好人，但这东西没什么用。

I mean, these guys are nice guys, but it's kind of worthless.

所以这事进展得很慢。

And so it it was it was going nowhere fast.

然后我们还有一个朋友，叫尼尔斯，他经营一家叫Beautylish的公司，这家公司现在还在，他们当时在网上卖化妆品和美容产品。

And then we had another friend, somebody named Nils, who ran a company called Beautylish, which is kinda still around, but they were selling online cosmetics and beauty products.

Beautylish唯一的不同就是他们采用了expedite，我想那时候可能已经叫Affirm了，他们在顾客选购洗发水和香水的时候，就提前告诉顾客，可以分三期付款，或者三十天后再付，或者当时我们想做的其他方式。

And the only difference that Beautylish did as they implemented expedite, think I by then it may have already I think it was named Affirm by then, was that they told their shoppers up funnel, basically, as they were selecting their shampoos and and perfumes that you could pay in three installments or thirty days later or or whatever it is we were trying to sort of do then.

结果转化率立刻提升了30%。

And that had an instant 30% increase in conversion.

那时候我们就想，哦，我们知道这是什么了。

And that was the, oh, we know what this is.

这不是一个替代方案。

This isn't an alternative.

这并没有真正解决睡衣问题。

This isn't actually solving the pajama problem.

它解决的是我的预算问题，但如果我可以分期付款，那就能大大扩展消费。

It is solving my budget is this, but if I could pay over multiple periods of time, it would expand a lot.

所以我们一意识到这个想法的苗头，就立刻把它转变成销售活动，很快找到了一批小品牌，主要是直接面向消费者的品牌，他们根本不在乎我们收1%、5%还是12%的手续费，因为他们想增长营收，告诉顾客说，嘿，你可以分期付款，不用马上掏现金。

And so the second we sort of understood the very beginning of that notion, we turn it right around into a sales campaign and very quickly found a bunch of smallish brands, primarily direct to consumers who could not care whether we charge them 1%, 5%, or 12% because they were trying to grow their top line and telling their shoppers that, hey, you could pay for this over time instead of having to cough up the cash right now.

这真是革命性的。

It was transformative.

所以我们真的会收到商家CEO们写来的感谢信，我和其中很多人到现在还是朋友，都是早期用户。

And so we I would literally get these love letters from merchant CEOs saying and I'm still friends with a lot of them, like early adopters.

这些人现在大多数要么把公司卖了，要么公司倒闭了，要么转行去做别的事情了。

Most of these people have now either sold their businesses or the businesses failed or they've gone on to do something else.

但我还是会遇到一些人，比如有个叫Tracy的女士，来自Tradezy。

But I still run into people who were like, there's this woman named Tracy from Tradezy.

Tradezy.com是一个……哦，对。

Tradezy.com was a Oh, yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

我……

I had

刚见到Tracy。

just saw Tracy.

我记得她。

I remember her.

是的。

Yes.

她人很好。

She's wonderful.

而且她是我们早期的支持者，因为她的生意，说实话我都忘了她。

And she was an early advocate for us because her business literally I forgot about her.

她会给我发她后台的截图，说这就是Affirm效应。

She would email me screenshots of her dashboards and say, this is the Affirm effect.

你们帮我带来了35%的增长，请继续加油。

Here's a 35% pop you guys caused for me, like, please do more.

嗯，睡衣问题有解决方案了，然后还有那些床垫公司。

Well, there there was a solution to the pajama problem, then it was also all the mattress companies.

哦，

Oh,

对。

yes.

那个，那是另一个

That that was That was another

是最大的一个。

was the big one.

我就记得当时想，哎，有个叫Purple的公司，还有个叫Casper的。

I just remember it's like, you know, wait, there's a company called Purple, and there's a company called Casper.

它们就像突然冒出来一样，这变化真是颠覆性的。

Was just like, they just kept coming out of the woodwork, and that was transformative.

我记得当时我们讨论过这个问题，比如怎么收取高额的商户折扣费还能让人接受？

And I remember actually we were talking about this in the context of, like, how can you charge a high MDR and get away with it?

这听起来可不太好。

And that sounds bad.

不是说不让人接受，而是真的要让商户觉得这笔钱花得值，体现出足够的价值。

Not get away with it, but, like, actually show sufficient value to the merchant.

实际上，商户折扣费收得最高的反而是那些营利性教育机构。

The highest MDRs are actually for profit education institutions.

所以

So

有些学校的费率高达50%，我不是特别针对这些学校，但比如凤凰城大学。

some of them are, like, 50 per like, I mean, I I don't like these guys in particular, but, like, University of Phoenix.

有一家私募股权公司叫Apollo，但还有一家控股公司，旗下有很多营利性教育机构，叫Apollo Group或者类似的名字。

So there's the private equity firm Apollo, but there's also, like, this holding company of all these for profit institutions called Apollo Group or Apollo something.

凤凰城大学，我觉得是其中最大的。

And University of Phoenix, I think, is the biggest one.

他们就是假设大多数人不会还钱，而且因为是线上课程，毛利率特别高。

And they just assume that most people aren't going to pay, and the the gross margins are so high because it's an online course.

他们就想，行吧。

They're like, okay.

你可以收50%。

You could take 50%.

对吧？

Right?

但后端你就要承担应收账款，这就回到了麦克斯之前说的反欺诈问题。因为床垫的毛利率，比如这些床垫，我不知道你有没有买过。

But you're stuck with the receivables on the back end, which goes back to the fraud fighting that Max was talking about before Because the gross margins of the mattress like, these mattresses, I don't if you ever bought one.

挺酷的。

It's pretty cool.

因为他们实际上不会给你寄一个看起来像这样的床垫。

Because they didn't actually ship you a mattress that looks like this.

它是卷起来的。

It rolls out.

所以你拿到的是一个圆柱体。

So you get this, like, cylinder.

挺小的。

It's pretty small.

有些是盒子装的。

Some of them are boxes.

有些是盒子装的，但有些呢，你打开它，然后它就像那种老式的浴缸玩具，放进去就会膨胀开。

Some of them are boxes, but some of them, it's like you just open it, and then it just like it's like one of those old, like, toys that you'd put in, like, your bath, and then it would expand or something.

那就像床垫一样。

It's a that was like the mattress.

所以他们的毛利率非常高，因此在MDR上就有更大的灵活性。

So they had very, very high gross margins, so therefore, a lot more flexible on the MDR.

更重要的是，没人愿意穿着睡衣躺在不舒服的床垫上。

And more importantly, nobody wants like, you're in your pajamas on your uncomfortable mattress.

你不想花1200美元买一张床垫，但如果分期付款，转化率就会大幅提升。

You don't wanna spend $1,200 on a mattress, but if it's, like, 30 like, once you subdivide it, it just has a massive increase of conversion rate.

对。

Yeah.

在那个故事里，还有一些技术细节可能值得提一下，但那是下一个大飞跃。

There's a couple of other sort of technical things that are probably worth tapping into in in that story, but that that that was the next big leap.

所以床垫是向DTC品牌大规模扩张的前奏，我相信我们之后会谈到。

So the mattresses was the precursor to the great expansion into DTC brands, which I'm sure we'll touch on.

但在那之前，Affirm曾短暂尝试成为在线教育机构的支付服务商，但我们最终被迫退出，因为他们愿意支付这么高的MDR，是因为教育质量普遍很差。

But before we get there, Affirm briefly flirted with being a payments provider to the online educational facilities, which we ran out of kicking and screaming because the reason they're willing to pay these enormous MDRs is because the quality of education is largely terrible.

对。

Yeah.

所以，大多数人之所以不付款，并不是因为他们想，哦，我现在拿到了编织篮子的硕士学位。

So the reason people don't pay most of the time isn't because they're like, oh, I thought about it now that I have a master's degree in basket weaving.

我只是不想付钱。

I just don't wanna pay for it.

你看，结果发现我的学位一文不值。

See, it turns out my degree is worth nothing.

我当初为什么要报这个荒唐的东西？

Like, why did I sign up for this ridiculous thing?

所以，如果我们回顾一下，你知道，那些像什么来着？

And so we were if you go back to sort of, you know, things like what is it called?

General Assembly？

General assembly?

是他们的

Is that their

哦，对。

Oh, yeah.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

全是这类课程。

Full sort of class of these.

比如，我们会教你编程。

Like, we will teach you how to code.

又是AI之前的事，学编程？

Another pre AI thing, learn how to code?

直接让ChatGPT帮你写代码就行了。

Just ask JPT to code for you.

但在以前，学编程还挺重要的时候，你不想上大学，只想上个六周课程，那时候有很多类似大学克隆的培训机构。

But back in the day, when it was still important to learn how to code, but you didn't really wanna go to college for it, just wanna take a six week course, there were plenty of the sort of University of clones that Academy.

对。

Yeah.

就是所有这些家伙。

There's all the all these guys.

我们看到这个趋势，心想，天哪。

And we saw that trend and thought, oh my god.

这些人愿意补贴教育，这很酷，也符合我们的使命。

Like, these people are willing to subsidize education, which is cool and on mission for us.

但消费者不满导致的流失率太高了，我们在这个领域只撑了大概半年。

And yet, the loss rates to consumer dissatisfaction were so high, we lasted like half a year in that space.

但回到床垫的话题。

But back to mattresses.

所以，直接面向消费者，或者你可以把它们看作垂直整合的业务，这真的很强大。

So the thing that's really powerful about direct to consumer or you can think of them as vertically integrated business.

所以，大概在布鲁克林有个工厂，或者谁知道在哪里。

So there's some factory in Brooklyn, presumably, or who knows where.

中国。

China.

中国。

China.

我还以为那些做床垫的是在当地生产的呢，因为

I thought the mattress guys manufactured locally because

我不清楚。

I don't know.

不过它们都在犹他州。

But they're all in Utah.

还记得吗？

Remember that?

对。

Yeah.

我总觉得好像有个什么‘犹他床垫镇’之类的，但我觉得它们应该都是起源于那里。

I feel like it was like there was like a Utah mattress town or something, but I think they just all originated there.

Casper在纽约，或者以前在纽约，不对。

Casper's in New York or was No.

但我觉得Purple是在紫色那个州。

But it was Purple, I think, was in Purple.

然后还有其他类似的紫色品牌，

And then there were like other purples that

对，是的。

were Yeah.

最奇怪的一点是，

The thing one of the weirdest

我问过，

things I asked

关于制造的事情，其实都是集中在一起的。

for the manufacturing was actually all consolidated.

所以他们最终买这些床垫花的钱很少。

So they ultimately sort of paid very little for these mattresses.

它们其实都差不多。

They were kind of all the same.

我是说，不想透露什么行业机密，但记忆棉就是记忆棉。

I mean, don't want to reveal any industry secrets, but memory foam is memory foam.

总之，他们的核心价值或者说价值方程式真的很有意思。

Anyway and so they their their primary value or their their their value equation was really interesting.

首先，他们把记忆棉装进盒子里，压缩后寄给你，效果还挺酷的。

So the first of all, they bought this memory foam in a box and sort of compressed and shipped it to you with a cool effect.

利润空间巨大，因为你实际上就是把石油变成泡沫。

The margin there were gargantuan because you are, in fact, just sort of taking petroleum and turning it into foam.

但另一件事是更换周期，这其实涉及到一篇《哈佛商业评论》的文章，那篇文章在Casper成立之前就发表了。

But the other thing is the replacement cycle, and this actually goes to a, I think, Harvard Business Review article that came out right before Casper was founded.

所有这些创业者都读了同一篇文章，文章的核心观点是这样的。

And all these guys, all these really entrepreneurial people read the same article, which essentially said this.

人们每七年才换一次床垫。

People replace mattresses once every seven years.

如果你是卖床垫的公司，那这件事就是全世界最重要的。

If you're the company that sells that mattress, it is the most important thing in the world.

如果你错过了，下一次机会就要等七年之后了。

If you miss it, the next opportunity is seven years from now.

但床垫的利润率，即使在泡沫和其他东西出现之前，也差不多有80%，或者某个让人瞠目结舌的数字。

But the margins on mattresses, even before the sort of the foam and the everything else, are like 80% or some some eye popping number.

所以突然之间，四五家公司就从那篇文章里诞生了，基本上都在说：天哪。

And so suddenly, four or five companies were born from that article basically saying like, oh my god.

所以如果我们只是想办法营销一款床垫，让你要么缩短更换周期，比如从上次买床垫到下次买，从七年变成六年，要么你就认定这款床垫是最好的、最酷的，或者是从盒子里蹦出来的那一款。

So if we just figure out how to market a mattress that you will either shorten your replacement cycle, so you you buy the next mattress six years instead of seven years from the the last one, or you just decide this mattress is the best mattress or the coolest one or the one that pops out of a box.

那感觉就是，哦，你知道的，这里面钱太多了。

That is like, oh, you know, there's so much money in it.

一方面，这显然导致了床垫行业的饱和。

And one, it resulted in a saturation of mattress industry, obviously.

但更重要的是，它创造了一个巨大的溢价，就是我会不惜一切代价逼你买一张床垫。

But more to the point, it created this enormous premium on I will just compel you to buy a mattress by any means necessary.

所以告诉你，我给你三年免息贷款，当然是由Affirm提供的，这就像是一个小代价，也是一场很酷的营销活动。

So telling you, I will give you a three year loan at no interest at all, powered by Affirm, of course, is like a small price to pay and a cool marketing campaign.

而且，在Affirm的历史上，有好几次这样的事件，我们看到商家有机会大幅贡献MDR，这让我们能够取消APR。

And and and so that was there were multiple events like this in Affirm's history where we saw an opportunity for the merchant to significantly contribute to the MDR, which allowed us to eliminate the APR.

换句话说，消费者得到了真正的0%贷款。

In other words, consumer got a true 0% loan.

这个背景其实非常非常重要，需要理解。

The backdrop to this is actually really, really important to understand.

而我一直以来，并且将来也会继续反对的一件事，直到它被立法禁止或者通过其他方式消除，就是虚假的0%利率。

And one of my sort of, you know, things that I rage against have and and will continue to until it's made illegal or eliminated by by other means is the fake 0% level.

所以，如果你去过任何一家你喜欢的百货商店，那里某个地方肯定有个牌子。

So if you ever have gone to a you know, fill in your favorite department store, there is a sign somewhere.

现在可能没那么显眼了，上面写着：申请某某品牌的信用卡。

These days, somewhat less prominent that says, get a branded credit card from fill in the blank.

0%年利率。

0% APR.

零旁边有个星号，意思大概是说，如果你在接下来的十二个月或二十四个月内没有按时还清本金，哪怕只晚一天或者少付一分钱，利息就会从最开始算起。

There's an asterisk next to zero, which says something along the lines of assuming you make a purchase for the next twelve months or twenty four months, if you're a penny short or a day late paying your principal, the interest accrues retroactively to the beginning of time.

简单来说，你拿到卡那天刷了一千块，两年后醒来发现欠了三万。

Basically, day you got that card, you swipe it for a thousand dollars, you wake up and you owe $3,000 two years later.

这就是所谓的延期利息信用卡。

So this is called the deferred interest credit card.

我们正是抓住了这个痛点，提出了一个巨大的机会：我们的零利率是真正的零。

And a huge opportunity we tapped into directly from that rage was this idea of, well, our 0% is gonna be a real zero.

当你去买充气床垫或者那种盒装床垫时，你会拿到一个零利率的贷款。

When you go to buy the inflatable mattress or the mattress from a box, you're gonna get a 0% loan.

哪怕你晚了一个月甚至一年还款，我们也不会涨价，因为我们早就受够了那些用带星号的零来忽悠人的做法。

And even if you're a month late or a year late, we're not gonna change the price because we are so sick and tired of these ridiculous people who are lying to you about zero with an asterisk.

Affirm的零利率永远不会有附加条件。

There'll never be an asterisk on Affirm zero.

这就是为什么我们不收滞纳金、不搞递延利息，也不玩行业里那些惯用的花招和陷阱的原因。

That that is the origin story of why we don't charge late fees, we don't do deferred interest, all the sort of gimmicks and gotchas that the industry loves to throw at people.

我们之所以远离所有这些，主要是出于一个观点，你知道吗？

We've we've run away from all of that primarily as a point of, like, you know what?

当你决定和我们合作三年，你永远不会被坑。

When you decide to do this for three years with us, you will never get screwed.

你永远不会遇到意外的负面情况。

You will never be surprised to the negative.

所以那又是一个很大的转折点。

And so that that was another sort of big bounce up point.

然后每家床垫公司都开始想，哦，哇。

And then then every mattress company was like, oh, wow.

就像，这些家伙真的做到了。

Like, these guys are doing it.

希望我们也应该做同样的事情。

Hope we should do the same thing.

因为稍微快进一下，现在很多人听到Affirm，他们首先想到的就是，你知道，先买后付。

Because fast fast forwarding a bit, a a lot of people hear Affirm today, you know, one quick thing they think is, you know, buy now, pay later.

这没有完全涵盖什么，或者说，这遗漏了公司如今的哪些方面？

What does this not fully encapsulate or what does this miss about the company today in its in its entirety?

在我刚重读的关于Affirm起源的邮件里，你提到广告和支付正在融合，这是Trial Pay背后的理念，也是很多其他事情的核心理念。

One of the things in the email thread that I just reread in the origin origin of Affirm was your claim that advertising and payments are converging, which was the thesis behind trial pay and the thesis behind a bunch of different things.

实际上，PayPal内部有个失败的项目叫PayPal Shops，我当时亲自尝试，我建了个东西，想对你刚买的东西进行再营销。

Actually, a failed project within PayPal called PayPal shops where I was trying to personally, I built this thing where I was trying to remarket what you just bought.

这些信息应该能让我们了解你接下来可能买什么，等等这些。

That that information should give us a sense for what you might buy next and, you know, all that.

顺便说一句，所有这些后来都被证明是对的。

And all these things, by the way, have turned out to be true.

只是它们超前了十五、二十、三十年。

Like, they're just, you know, fifteen, twenty, thirty years before their time.

但如今Affirm越来越像是商家的一种工具，不仅仅是满足需求。

But Affirm more and more today is means for merchants to not just satisfy demand.

所以有人进来说，你看。

So somebody comes in and says, look.

我打算买这个东西，但我的预算是这么多。

I'm gonna buy this thing, but my budget is this big.

我赢了那双鞋。

I won the shoes.

我喜欢一个包，但Affirm在这里说，实际上，我们可以帮你以透明的条款分期付款，很多时候，三分之一的情况下是零利息。

I love a bag, but I'm and Affirm is there to say, actually, we can help you finance this on transparent terms a lot of times, a third of the time on no interest at all.

你应该买那个包和那双鞋。

You should get the bag and the shoes.

这是安全的。

It's safe.

这就是Affirm的品牌承诺，而且效果非常好，你知道，每年价值数百亿美元。

That that that is the brand promise of Affirm, and it works tremendously well, you know, tens of billions of dollars a year worth.

现在这越来越成为为商家打造一个平台，让他们告诉顾客，嘿，我们正在推出新东西。

That is now becoming more and more about creating a platform for merchants to tell their shoppers, hey, we are launching a new thing.

我们有这个令人向往的新产品在卖。

We have this desirable new product we are selling.

我们光在美国就已经服务了超过五千万消费者，现在业务已经拓展到四个国家，而且发展速度很快。

We've transacted with roughly 50 plus million Americans alone, and we're now live in four countries and and growing pretty quickly.

所以我们已经从单纯满足需求，转向帮助商家创造或保证需求。

And so we have shifted to just satisfying demand to helping merchants create or guarantee demand.

支付和广告的融合时代已经到来，虽然晚了十五年。哦，亚历克斯。

And the convergence of payments and advertising is upon us, although fifteen years later Oh, Alex.

早就预言过。

Predicted.

你搞试用支付太早了，我搞PayPal股票也太早了。

You're you're too early with trial pay, I'm certainly too early with paypal shares.

嗯，另一方面，我记得，可能是在那个帖子里，也可能不是，我应该去找找那封邮件，但大多数公司的客户获取成本都非常高。

Well, the other side, I remember, maybe it was in that thread or not, I should I should find that email, but most companies have very high customer acquisition cost.

而且，我现在作为风投经常开玩笑说，看到90%的消费类公司，我宁愿去买谷歌或Facebook的股票，因为所有客户都是从那里来的。

And, like, the joke that I make now as a VC is that when I see 90% of consumer companies, I'd kinda rather buy Google stock or Facebook stock because that's where all the customers come from.

而且我清楚地记得，我们有过很多很多关于如何实现负客户获取成本的讨论。

And I distinctly remember many, many conversations around how do we have negative CAC.

对吧？

Right?

而且对我来说，Affirm 至今为止最酷的一点就是它的获客成本是负的。

And like, I think to me, one of the coolest things about Affirm to this day is it has negative customer acquisition cost.

我的意思是，他们不仅不用花钱拉客户，反而还能从客户那里拿到钱。

I mean, it is paid to acquire a customer.

有些公司看起来好像也是这样，但其实不是，因为它们基本上只是贴牌销售别人的产品。

And there are there are some companies that you would think they look like this, but they don't because they're basically white labeling something.

不过回到床垫这个话题，假设你有一笔付款逾期了。

But going back to the mattresses, let's just say that you're late on one of your payments.

Casper，那个友好的白色幽灵床垫品牌，因为Casper是个白色幽灵，不想去猫或者别的什么。

Casper, the friendly white ghost mattress company, because Casper is a white ghost, doesn't wanna go or cat or something.

我小时候养过一只叫Casper的猫。

We had a cat named Casper when I was growing up.

他们可不想给你发催款通知，说‘快从我床垫上下来’之类的。

They don't wanna send you a dunning notice saying, like, get off my mattress.

你还没还我钱呢。

You haven't paid me back.

他们希望那是第三方来做。

They want that to be a third party.

对。

Yeah.

相比之下，其他公司呢，你知道，区别在哪里？

Versus other companies where, yes, you know, what is the difference?

B2B2C真的是一个很有意思的领域。

What b to b to c is a really interesting category.

就是企业对企业再对消费者。

It's business to business to consumer.

我之前想用TrialPay做这个，因为就像，好吧。

I tried doing this with trial pay because it's like, alright.

你在玩Zynga的游戏。

You're playing a Zynga game.

去注册GEICO，通过trial pay就能免费拿金币。

Go get free coins if you sign up for GEICO powered by trial pay.

没人知道trial pay是什么，所以我们真的尝试给消费者发消息。

Nobody knew who the hell trial pay was, so we we actually tried sending messages to consumers.

比如，你知道，我们被邮件服务商给封了，我想是这样的。

Like, you know, we got I think we got blocked by our email provider.

就是没人知道我们，我们其实有权给这些客户发邮件，但他们根本不知道我们是谁。

Just nobody we we actually had a right to email these customers, but they had no idea who we were.

而实际上，和五千万人建立金融关系，而且获客成本还是负的，这真的不是吹的。

Whereas, actually having a financial relationship with 50,000,000 people with negative CAC, I mean, it really is not to pet you.

这太不可思议了。

It's it's incredible.

这真的很难做到。

Like, it's so hard to do.

在风投圈里，我们从来没见过这样的。

And we never see anything like this in the venture land.

或者说，你知道，因为，对，有很多公司能做到规模化。

Or, you know, like, because, yeah, there are lots of companies that can get to scale.

我是说，Casper做到了规模化，但获客成本很高。

I mean, Casper got to scale, but lots of CAC.

获客成本很高。

Lots of CAC.

这就是为什么很多这样的商业模式，时间长了就会走下坡路，因为所有的经济价值都流向了谷歌和脸书。

And that's why a lot of these business models, they tend to degrade over time because all the economic value goes to Google and Facebook.

所以如果你能实现负获客成本，那你还能推出其他产品。

So if you can have negative CAC, and then you can launch other products as well.

对吧？

Right?

因为你真正拥有客户。

Because you actually own the customer.

最重要的是，品牌方希望你拥有客户。

And most important, the brand wants you owning the customer.

就像我在Trail Pit没搞对的地方。

Like, is what I didn't get right at Trail Pit.

比如，Zynga不想让我拥有他们的客户。

Like, Zynga didn't want me owning their customer.

Netflix也不想让我拥有他们的客户。

Netflix didn't want me owning their customer.

我只是把两者连接起来。

I just connected the two.

但Affirm，商家其实希望你拥有客户。

But Affirm, the the merchants actually want you to own the customer.

这非常你，你已经

It's very you you already

有支持你的产品、处理不满意的客户或技术支持问题等负担。

have a burden of supporting your product and dealing with unsatisfied customers or technical support issues or whatever.

一家公司告诉你12次，如果是一年的贷款，或者39次，如果是三年半的贷款，嘿，你逾期了，或者你得付款，或者来自你的贷款人的所有沟通，只是另一种负担，品牌有点像，嘿，你知道吗？

A company that tells you 12 times for a year long loan or 39 times, you know, if it's a three and a half year loan, hey, you're late, or you gotta gotta make a payment, or all the communications that come from your lender is just another type of burden that the brand is kinda like, hey, you know what?

Affirm，你们可以搞定这个。

Affirm, you guys can handle this.

这太棒了。

This would be great.

所以跟客户的关系是Affirm根基里的关键部分，我们开发新产品的能力也是建立在这个基础之上的。

And so the the relationship with the customer is a key component of the foundation of Affirm, and our ability to develop new products is is really built on that.

另外一点也挺有意思的，咱们再往回说，聊聊信用评分那回事。

One of the other really sort of cool to sort of going all the way back to the credit scoring thing.

所以我们是行业内唯一真正做长期贷款的公司。其实有不少竞争对手也在尝试，有些还取得了一定成功，但大多数情况并不理想。

So we are the only company in the industry really there's plenty of competitors who are trying and some some degree of success, but mostly not really, who will go into longer term loans.

我说的长期，不是指房贷那种十几年甚至更久，而是像三年半这种时长。跟平均只有六周的“先买后付”相比，这已经算挺长的了。

And by longer, I don't mean mortgage or, you know, fifteen plus years, but, three like, and a half years is a fairly long period of time relative to the average buy now pay later, which is, six weeks.

要做到这一点，你就得进行信用评估。

And to do that, you have to underwrite.

你不能走捷径，比如只看个FICO评分，或者随便看看你的Facebook好友列表之类的。

Like, you can't shortcut the I'll just look at your FICO score or I'll just sort of, you know, I'll look at your Facebook friends.

这些方法都不管用。

Like, none of that works.

你实际上必须做真正、非常复杂的机器学习工作。

You actually have to do a real, very sophisticated degree of machine learning work.

这有两件很酷的事情。

There are two cool things about it.

这件事很难做，所以在这个方面很难有人能跟我们竞争。

It's hard to do, and so it's just hard to compete with us on that front.

但另一方面，这给了你39次机会或12次机会，在给消费者发送账单通知、与他们交流、以及他们付款时，向他们推销新服务。

But the other side is it gives you 39 shots on gold or 12 shots on gold to tell this consumer as you send them billing notices and as you have conversations with them, as they pay you to upsell them on a new service.

这些长期贷款实际上很难管理，也很难维持合理的违约率和逾期率，但这是作为融资提供者向消费者推销更多服务的代价。

And so these long term loans, which are actually quite hard to manage and quite hard to maintain reasonable default rates and delinquency rates on, is the price you pay as a provider of financing to upsell consumers on more and more services.

所以我们的业务一直由这些长期产品推动，尽管它们可能是支付领域中最具挑战性的部分。

And so our our business has been fueled by these long term products even though they are probably the the the most challenging part of payments.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我们一直在聊一些公司历史，因为我们在做一期历史回顾的节目。

We've been covering some a a firm history while we're doing a historic episode.

我还想问一个关于PayPal历史的问题。

I also wanna ask a question about PayPal history.

我就直说了。

I'll keep it straight.

你知道，最近有一本书出版了。

And, you know, there's been you know, the a book came out.

《创始人》这本书最近出来了，然后有很多关于PayPal的重新讨论，既讨论它作为支付和金融科技先驱的影响，也讨论从里面走出来的人，感觉那是最多或者说命中率最高的一批后来做出惊人成就的人。

Founders recently, there's there's been sort of a lot of, you know, revisiting of of of PayPal, both in its impact as, you know, pioneer in sort of, you know, payments and and and fintech, but also in terms of the the people, that came out of it and sort of the it it feels like the, you know, highest concentration of, or highest hit rate of people who would go on to do incredible things.

今天我能想到的唯一能与之相比的，甚至不是公司。

The only comparable thing I could think of today is is not even companies.

而是那个“交易员奖学金”或者类似的东西。

It's the deal fellowship or or or something.

我想不到今天有哪家公司能跟PayPal相提并论。

I can't think of a comparable company to PayPal today.

我很好奇你能不能想到。

Curious if you you can.

而且，你知道，这些人要么有极强的优势，要么很多都有极强的个性，同时也有一些明显的弱点。

And, you know, all with, or or many with extremely strong strengths, but also, you know, very strong personalities and some strong weaknesses as well.

所以我很想知道，随着那个故事被讲述，关于它对行业的影响，它有多早，以及从那里走出来的那些人，有没有什么被低估的地方，或者你觉得还没被真正理解的地方，或者你对人们如何看待那家公司、那个时代有什么补充？

And so I'm curious if there's something you think that is goes as that story is being told about of its impact in the industry, you know, how early was and and sort of the people that came out of it, if it's something that's underappreciated or you think not quite grokked or any any additions you wanna make to how we perceive that that company in that time period.

这个问题我有个老答案，也有个新答案，你可能也猜到了，我之前回答过一两次。

Sort of an old answer and a new answer to this question, which I've you might you might expect I've answered once or twice before.

所以，我在书里给出的那个标准答案——顺便说一句，那本书非常好。

So the the the canonical answer that I gave in the book, which by way is very good.

关于PayPal的历史，已经有很多人写了很多东西了。

So there there have been many much ink spilled on the history of PayPal.

《创始人》其实是一本非常好的书。

The founder's actually a very good book.

一方面是因为这本书写得很好，另一方面是因为作者吉米对故事里的每一个角色都做了深入的采访，花了很多时间和我们所有人交谈。

Like, and part of it is because it's well written, but part of it is because Jimmy, the guy who wrote it, interviewed every single character in the story extensively and spent a lot of time talking to all of us.

所以它至少是建立在事实基础上的。

And so it it's at the very least grounded in fact.

关于他的研究，我当时的回答是：在我们接受采访的过程中，无论是早期团队还是后期团队，我们始终在寻找那些有创业精神的人。

So the the the answer I gave for his research was, as we were interviewing, certainly the early team and even the later team, we kept on selecting for entrepreneurs.

我会问一些经典的问题，比如：PayPal之后你打算做什么？

We would ask, like, one of the stock questions I would ask would so what are you gonna do after PayPal?

我最期待的回答是，哦，这是最后一个了。

And the answer that I welcomed the most was, oh, this is the last one.

我打算之后自己创业。

I'm gonna start my own afterwards.

所以他们就像是在说，如果你来这里是为了拿到创业的最后一个研究生学位，那我们当然非常欢迎你来。

So this they're just like, oh, if you're coming in here to kind of get your final graduate degree in entrepreneurship, of course, we'd love to have you.

你知道的，既然你这么聪明、这么优秀，又这么有野心，那就来吧。

Like, you know, if you're you're that smart, you're that good, and you're that ambitious, you know, please come along.

所以这就是为什么我觉得那么多从PayPal出来的人后来都创办了公司。

And so that's kind of the why I think so many people that came out of PayPal proceeded to start companies.

而且，真的，我们散伙没多久，YouTube、Yelp，还有彼得在LinkedIn的第一笔大基金，全都冒出来了。

And, like, literally, you know, hot second after, we all dispersed YouTube and Yelp and Peter's first major fund at LinkedIn.

所以这绝不是偶然。

So that was not an accident.

我们是有意吸引创业者的。

We were attracting entrepreneurs by design.

另一部分我觉得其实没怎么被提到，可能比较微妙，也算是我自己的看法吧——我们对房间里的人了解得非常深。

The other part that I think has actually not been talked about, and maybe subtle and sort of my own cut at this, but we knew the people in the room intimately.

我们真的，你知道，在那些闷热的房间里一起头脑风暴、互相吼叫，花大量时间在白板前，说对方的想法是白痴，等等，就这样混在一起，简直像交换了荷尔蒙一样。

Like, we literally, you know, exchanged hormones by hanging out in these sweaty rooms, brainstorming, screaming at each other, and spending a lot of time as whiteboards and declaring the other person's ideas idiotic and and so on.

我们了解那个人真实的一面，比如那个极度哲学化的彼得·蒂尔，还有每次都全力以赴的埃隆·马斯克，以及现在当州长的大卫·萨克斯，所有这些人都有一层对外展示的形象，然后还有他们在晚宴上的样子，以及他们在真正压力山大、头疼不已、不知道该怎么办、面临必须解决的真实问题时是什么样。

We knew the true version of that person, the sort of the extremely, I don't know, the ultra philosophical Peter Thiel and you know, go all in every time Elon Musk and these days, gubernatorial, David Sachs, know, all these people, like, they they all have kind of the the present the position layer, and then there's, like, the kind of what they are like in a dinner party, and then, like, what are they when they're really stressed out and just, like, head hurts, don't know what to do, and we have a real problem we need to solve.

所以如果你了解我们每个人真实的基本版本，当你看到其中某个人去追求一件大事，比如埃隆要把人类送上火星，那真是了不起。

So if you know kind of the true base version of who we all are, as you watch one of these people go for something really big, like Elon taking humanity to Mars, which is extraordinary.

但你知道吗，他毕竟也是个人。

And yet, you know, he's a human being.

我在公司厨房见过他满头大汗、疲惫不堪、脾气暴躁的样子，不下千次。

Like, I've seen him sweaty and tired and grumpy at the company kitchen a thousand times.

或者彼得，他在道登的时候，从某次融资旅途中打电话给我，说：我觉得我们可能要没钱了。

Or Peter, when he is in his Dowden, calls me from some fundraising trip saying, I think we might run out of money.

你知道，他们不是神。

You know, they're not gods.

他们是人，这反而激励你，你知道吗？

You know, they're humans, and that inspires you to actually, like, you know what?

如果那个家伙只是个普通人，我跟他相处过很多时间，他很普通，但他却要追求这么宏大的想法？

If that guy who's just a normal dude, I spent a lot of time with him, he's normal, And he's going for this big of an idea?

我也应该这么做。

I should do the same.

我也应该努力去追求。

I should I should strive too.

所以我觉得，这些人组合在一起，都是非常有抱负的人。

And so I think the combination of these are very ambitious people.

他们都想成为创业者。

They all wanted to be entrepreneurs.

但我们也年轻时就认识彼此，那时候我们充满疑虑，我觉得很多人现在也还是这样。

But we also knew each other when we were young and filled with doubt, which many, I think, still are.

我觉得这让你有信心，知道一切并不都是那么美好。

I think that that sort of gives you confidence that it's not all, you know, bed and roses.

这条路是铺满坎坷的。

It's it's it's paved with the with with with with both bumpy parts.

有没有什么我们还没聊到，但你希望我们在这里聊到的？

There anything we didn't get to that you wanna make sure that we get to while while we're here?

我对代理购物可能没那么乐观，但对代理支付非常乐观。

I'm probably less optimistic about agentic shopping, and I'm very optimistic about agentic payments.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得机器人帮我们买周五晚上的衣服这个想法不太靠谱。

I think the the notion of robots will buy our Friday night outfits is misguided.

在机器人把东西送到你家门口之前，我们早就想看看自己穿起来效果怎么样了。

We want to know what we look like long before the robot delivers it to your door.

但我觉得摩擦成本这个问题很有意思，毕竟有史以来最好的用户界面就是信用卡。

But I think the friction, this notion of so the best user interface ever created is the credit card.

现在情况可能真的要变了，因为智能代理确实比那些塑料卡片，甚至带可重写芯片的卡片要聪明得多。

This may actually be finally up for renegotiation because agents are in fact smarter than pieces of plastic and even pieces of plastic with rewritable chips.

所以我觉得，关于智能代理购物的讨论可能偏离了重点。关键其实在于：怎么让你相信机器人能帮你买到对的东西？

And so I think that's a lot of conversation around agentic commerce is probably looking 20 degrees off where, you know, how can I convince you to just trust the robot to buy the right thing?

说实话，我并不想完全放手。

Like, I don't want to.

我挺享受买自行车零件的过程，甚至花太多时间纠结两个细微差别的零件，因为我觉得参与选购本身就是一种乐趣。

Like, I love buying bike parts, I spend way too much time looking at two slightly different bike parts because I just, you know, have to participate in the purchase.

但到了真正付款那一步，比如确认下单的时候……

But the part where, like, okay.

就是那个。

That one.

就这样。

The end.

现在，那个就是开始，你掏出钱包或者你……所以我觉得我们即将在支付用户界面看到一些有趣的创新。

Right now, that one is the beginning where you pull out your wallet or you and so I think we we're we're about to see some interesting innovation in payments user interface.

那我能不能问个问题？

So I I can I ask a question on that?

我基本同意，但我觉得这取决于……比如，我需要研究买什么，对。

So I mostly agree, but I think it depends on there's, like, the I need to research what to buy Mhmm.

AI只是你手头可用的另一个工具。

Where AI is just yet another tool at your disposal.

就像你问朋友，那是我……这是个自行车零件，我在问你。

Like, you ask your friends, that's what I'm it's a bike part, I'm asking you.

我也在问AI。

I'm also asking AI.

我是在问你们两个。

I'm asking both of you.

但现在我已经有了我想要的选择。

But now I have the skew that I want.

而且我其实不在乎是从那十九个不同的地方中的哪一个买的。

And I don't actually care which one of the 19 different places that I get it from.

我有点这么看这个世界，就是有人更在乎钱而不是时间。

And I kind of think about the world, like, you have people that care more about money than time.

也有人更在乎时间而不是钱。

You have people that care more about time than money.

我对智能体商务的看法是，对，这些现在都还没发生。

The way that I kind of think about agentic commerce, yeah, none of this is happening right now.

所以这是在预测未来会发生什么，就是这里是我想要的UPC，这里是我想要的SKU，去帮我以最低的价格买下来。

So it's trying to prognosticate what's going to happen, is here is the the UPC, here's the the SKU that I actually want, go buy it for me at the lowest cost.

这其实就是那些时间比钱多的人现在已经在做的事情，所以这就是为什么我总是拿camelcamelcamel作为最好的例子。

It's kind of the thing that people that have a lot more time than money do right now anyway, And like, that's why I always point to camel camel camel is like my favorite example of this.

因为它在美国排名前100的网站里，但可能年收入超过10万美元的人几乎都没听说过它。

Because it's one of the top 100 websites in America that probably nobody with over a $100,000 a year of income has ever heard of.

但这其实是在说，我知道我想要什么。

But it's it's a way of saying, I know what I want.

你不是在帮我，机器人也不是在告诉我该买哪个自行车零件，或者该买哪种汽水。

You're not helping the robot's not telling me what bike part to buy, telling me what soda to buy.

我知道。

I know.

只要给我最低价就行，但这太费时间了。

Just give it to me at the lowest price, but it takes way too much time.

有时候你只需要观察一群已经把某件事当作基本要求的人，然后把这种做法推广到另一群人身上。

And sometimes you can just observe one group of humans that already have something as table stakes and then porting that to another group of humans.

我想，你觉得这种代理式商务，因为它其实也和代理式支付有关。

I I guess, do you think that that form of agentic commerce because it's actually related to agentic payments as well.

对。

Mhmm.

我有九张不同的信用卡。

I have nine different cards.

我记不住亚马逊和摩根大通联名卡在非餐厅消费低于500美元时的条款，而且如果我用了我其他的卡，也是一样的道理。

I don't remember the Amazon Chase issued by Chase card terms for a non restaurant purchase of something under $500, and if I've used my whatever, like, it's the same thing.

那些更看重钱而不是时间的人，他们会去搞清楚这些。

Like, people that care more about money than time, they will figure that out.

那些更看重时间而不是钱的人，可能就不会去管这些。

People that care more about time than money, they probably won't.

我觉得从大方向上看，这是有道理的。

I think directionally, that'll make sense.

我觉得这个普及的过程可能会比较慢。

I think the adoption curve is probably going to be fairly slow.

这种事情总是很容易预测说会很慢，而且老话也说了，一开始慢慢来，然后一下子全来。

And these things are always sort of easy to predict to be very slow and sort of the usual adage as well, slowly at first and all at once.

我也不太确定，我能不能很好地预测这个。

I'm I'm not I'm not sure I I can handicap that well.

人们不这么做的原因，其实有很多人生活在那种模糊的状态里，有时候有钱，有时候有时间。

The reason people don't so there's plenty of people who live in this somewhat murky world of sometimes I have money, sometimes I have time.

这更多跟价格和你投入的关心程度有关。

And it has more to do with anything with the price and the degree of care you put into it.

我的意思是，我不总是只买自行车零件。

Mean, I don't always just buy bike parts.

有时候我也会买牛奶，牛奶，还是牛奶。

Sometimes I buy milk and milk and milk.

那我怎么买自行车零件呢？

So how I bike parts?

我大部分时间都在买自行车零件。

I mostly buy bike parts.

但我觉得对很多人来说，实际情况就是，好吧，我会找最便宜的价格，但我不确定怎么评估那个东西在我想要的时间真正送到我门口的概率。

But the I I think what really happens for a lot of people, it's just sort of like, well, yeah, I'll I'll get the I'll I'll find the cheapest price, but then I'm not sure how to handicap the probability of that item actually showing up at my door at the time of my desired outcome.

即使我愿意从很远的地方买某个自行车零件，而且有三家不同的零售商在卖，我也会选信誉最好的那家，而不是那个承诺给我最便宜或者最快的那家。

Even if I'm okay buying a some bike part from some faraway land and it's sold from three different retailers, I'm gonna go with the most reputable one versus the one that's got profit, promising me the cheapest or sometimes the fastest.

所以我觉得，AI要真正理解用户的偏好，还要能预判这些偏好会随着输入怎么变化，可能还得再走几步。不过也许AI已经做到了。

And so I think we're probably a few steps away from AI grasping both the preferences, but also handicapping how these preferences would change based on the input, may in fact, maybe AI is already there.

只是你还没放心让AI代理做得跟你一样好。

It's just that you haven't yet trusted your agent to do as good a job as you would.

比如，你一眼就能看出来，那个网站看起来像是九十年代做的。

Like, you can eyeball aside and be like, that looks like it was edited in the nineties.

我就是不太确定，他们会不会花一千美元买个新飞轮，或者六百美元，现在飞轮大概就这个价吧，就是自行车后面那套齿轮。

I'm just not quite sure they're gonna spend a thousand dollars for a new cassette or $600, whatever the cassettes go for these days in bike cassettes, the the rear assembly.

嗯，自行车衣橱那个网站，就是我想的那个，看起来像是九十年代做的，而且会卖你非常便宜的飞轮。

Well, bike bike closet is the site that I'm thinking about that looks like it was made in the nineteen nineties that will sell you a very cheap cassette.

对。

Exactly.

但你知道他们是不是用过的吗？对。

But do you know if they were used by Yeah.

猜猜看。

Guess.

就是那种，你知道的，

Someone, you know, who's

确实。

It's true.

已经磨损得不行了。

Throbbed off and all.

对。

Yeah.

所以我觉得，我觉得我们现在处在一个比较困难的阶段，还在摸索当中。

So I I think I I think we are in a difficult period where we're still figuring out.

另外还有一点，咱们就积极一点收尾吧，有一件事是真的，但好像还没人特别提过，那就是买菜的流程已经完全是智能代理式的了，比如用Instacart的人。

The the other thing that, you know, just sort of maybe end on a positive note, the thing that's really true that no one seems to be celebrating just yet is grocery shopping is 100 agentic, like, for anyone who uses Instacart.

就像你告诉你的Instacart采购员，去帮我拿牛奶来，他们回你一句，哦，好的，你根本不会多想。

Like, you tell your Instacart shopper, go bring me milk, You don't think twice when they say, oh, yeah.

你说要有机谷的全脂牛奶，但我找到了另一个牌子，给你带来了。

You you wanted whole milk from organic valley, but I found some other brand, and here it is.