消费者 AI 的未来是什么？| Josh Elman 做客 a16z

突然间，

a sudden,

你得别再这样了。

you gotta stop doing that.

所以我们不得不转向这个新世界。

And so we had to move into this world.

搜索是另一个大趋势。

Search was the other big wave.

能够针对谷歌做搜索优化，这事儿太重要了。

Search and being able to be search optimized for Google was a massive thing.

过去五到十年里，真正成为主流的工作方式，是我们如今对这些新创作者关系的信任。

What we've seen in the past five or ten years that are really the working methods now are the trust we have now in these new creator relationships.

是的。

Yeah.

有时候这些是真正的朋友关系，有时候带点单向崇拜的成分，但创作者们确实能分享他们正在做、在探索、在摸索的事情。

Sometimes they're they're true social relationships, sometimes they're somewhat parasocial, but their the creators are able to talk about the things that they're doing and exploring and figuring out.

你会渐渐相信，这个人做这些并不是为了赚钱或做广告。

And you learn to trust that this person isn't just doing it to make money or an endorsement.

他们是因为真正热爱自己在捣鼓的东西才这么做，如果我喜欢他们做的内容，不管是美妆、健康还是餐饮，对。

They're doing it because they're passionate about what they're tinkering with, and if I like what they're doing, whether it's in beauty or health restaurants Mhmm.

还是科技。

Or technology.

我关注了一些特别棒的苹果爱好者。

I follow some really cool Apple creators.

他们会去折腾这些产品，然后跟全世界分享自己的心得。

They'll go and tinker with these things and talk about them to the world.

这才是新的发现方式——你得做得足够出色，才能让这些人主动为你发声。

That's the new path of discovery, is you have to be so good that you're getting those people to talk about it.

有时候你甚至可以花钱请人做推广，来启动这个过程。

And sometimes you can even pay for those endorsements and try to get that started.

但说实话，最终真正有效的，永远是纯粹自发的口碑传播。

But honestly, everything only ultimately works if it's true organic word-of-mouth.

我太喜欢这个了。

I love this so much.

我跟你说这些，是因为……

I'm telling you about it

对。

Yeah.

某种程度上来说。

At some level.

你所做的一切，都是在为这个引擎加油，直到你的产品好到足以自己传播开来。

And everything then you do is you feed a lot into the engine to get to that point where your product's so good, it's spreading itself.

那我得跟你探讨一下，因为把创作者当作下一代渠道，而不是传统媒体，这在逻辑上让人有点不舒服。

So, so let let me challenge you on this a little bit, because there's something intellectually dissatisfying about creators being the next gen channel versus the traditional networks.

你知道吗，过去那些平台，比如Facebook或者X这样的网络，它们的价值真的非常强大。

You know, in the old days, the old days, I mean, the value of the instant network or the, you know, Facebook network or the x network is so powerful.

你甚至可以说，这些平台的拥有者某种程度上滥用权力，更多地为自己谋利，而不是维护整个生态。

And you could argue that the ones who own those networks have sort of maybe abused their powers or use them in ways that benefited them more than the ecosystem.

创作者这种模式，感觉没那么有分量。

Creators just feels like a weaker form of that.

我觉得恰恰相反，创作者才是最强大的形式，因为他们的真实影响力建立在信任和长期信赖的关系上。

I find that they're the the, like, the biggest form of that because actually most creators have earned their reputation based on trust and based on a trusted relationship.

对。

Mhmm.

我记得以前，总会有特别有名的运动员站起来说：我推荐这款麦片。

And I remember in the olden days, it'd be a very famous athlete that would then get up and go, I endorse this cereal.

你心里就会想，这运动员怎么可能天天吃这玩意儿。

And you're like, there's no way that that athlete is eating that cereal every day.

他们就是拿钱帮着打广告罢了。

Like, they're just getting paid to endorse it.

是啊。

Right.

在广告里头。

In the commercial.

但现在当一个创作者说，这是我的健康习惯。

But now when a creator says, here's my health routine.

对。

Mhmm.

或者这是我的旅行安排，我去了这儿、那儿、还有那儿，这两个地方不错，那个就一般。

Or here's my travel routine, and I went here, here, here, and these two I liked, and this one wasn't as good.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你学会信任他们，建立关系，一直关注他们，你就会更真心地相信他们的推荐，而且这种信任还能层层传递下去。

Like, you're actually if you learn to trust them and build that relationship and follow them along, you actually believe it much more, and yet it scales all the way down.

大学里也有意见领袖，真正影响我们校园的，可能还有高中时的那些人，他们一直就是这样。

There are influencers in college, the ones who actually influence our college, maybe the ones in high school, and they were always that.

所以这本质上还是关于社群。

And so it's not it is still about community.

还是关于影响你身边的朋友。

It is still about influencing your friends.

是的。

Yeah.

但确实就在里面。

But but it is in there.

我的意思是，比如Discord，完全是通过这种影响力传播的。

I mean, Discord, for example, through all through influence, all through this kind of influence.

但那时候并没有那种大规模的网红。

But it wasn't like these mass influencers.

有时候是主播们说：嘿，我们现在都在Discord上玩。

Sometimes it was streamers going, hey, we're playing on Discord now.

但更多时候，是那个总组织大家打游戏的人说：我试了个新工具。

But most of it was the person who gathers everybody for games would go, hey, I'm trying this new tool.

比我们以前用的强多了。

It's way better than what we've been using before.

大家都来试试，这个人就把一起玩游戏的圈子都拉进来了，然后有几个人觉得真不错，又把他们另外的圈子也带了进来，接着就这么传开了。

Everybody jump on it, and that one person would bring everybody in their group who they played games with, and then a few people would go, That was really cool, and I also played games with this group, I'm gonna get this group on, and then they'd do that.

所以这根本不是什么微影响力，就是最原始的口碑传播，没错。

So, that's even, it's not a micro influencer, it's a dumb one Word-of-mouth, yep.

这完全是靠口碑传播。

That's pure word-of-mouth.

是的。

Yeah.

但我认为这种模式完全可以延伸到最底层的传播场景。

But I think it scales all the way down to that.

对。

Yeah.

这挺有意思的。

That's interesting.

那你觉得，对于原生AI消费产品来说，这种口碑传播就是主要渠道吗？还是说会是像ChatGPT的应用目录、Codecs这样的平台，或者别的什么东西会冒出来？

So do you think then that that's the channel sort of for the AI native consumer products, or are they gonna is it gonna be something like ChatGPT apps directory, or Codecs, or is there some other thing that's going to happen?

我的意思是，我刚才简单带过了，但我们其实也聊过病毒传播和搜索，而搜索更像是那种单一功能的工具。

I mean, I kinda brushed over this, but we also talked about virality and search, and search was sort of the single purpose tool.

我觉得我们会回到以前那种状态，人们依然需要这种口碑传播，不管是通过创作者加速，还是单纯因为用户自己特别兴奋地分享。

I think we're gonna be back in the same world where people are gonna need this sort of spread, this word-of-mouth, whether that's accelerated through creators or just through individuals being so excited.

对。

Yeah.

但与此同时，你得搞清楚怎么实现所谓的生成式优化，就是那种GEO。

At the same time, you're gonna need to figure out how to do, you know, what they call a gen you know, GEO, generative, you know, optimization

是的。

Mhmm.

让智能代理主动谈论你。

Where the agents talk about you.

当有人遇到问题时，这些代理会主动帮他们解决。

And when someone's trying to solve a problem, the agents will actually do that.

我觉得这里面有巨大的机会，不管是通过目录、为模型训练或RAG提供内容，还是最终这些产品变得足够智能，意识到推荐别人反而能让自己更强。

And I think there's both huge opportunity for whether it's the directories or whether it's just getting into the content for the model training or the rag, or ultimately whether these products become really smart and they realize that referring things out makes them better.

目前来看，主流的助手都没这种意识——觉得推荐别人反而能让自己更强大，但我认为这才是最大的机会。

Right now, I don't think any of the core assistants kind of have that mentality that referring people out makes them actually stronger, but I think that's the biggest opportunity.

你说的‘推荐别人’是什么意思？

What do you mean referring people out?

当我用ChatGPT或者Quad来解决一个问题时，它会尽全力帮我搞定。

When I start trying to solve a problem with Chatuchi BT or Quad, it does everything it can to solve my problem.

我想规划一次旅行。

Hey, I wanna plan a trip.

我想挑一瓶好酒。

Hey, I wanna figure out a good bottle of wine.

我想做这件事。

I wanna do this.

是的。

Yeah.

但要是它能说，‘我知道你想规划旅行’，那就太棒了。

But but what would be really cool is if it said, hey, I know you're trying to plan a trip.

我给你推荐一些方案。

Here's a bunch of things.

顺便说一下，这里有一些深入学习的资源。

By the way, here's the resources to go deeper.

对。

Yeah.

他们可能想掌握其中几个领域，但不可能全都自己做。

And maybe they'll wanna own a few of those verticals, but they can't own them all.

对。

Yeah.

如果系统能更聪明地判断什么时候该把你转给其他工具，我觉得会非常好，这样就能创造很多

And actually being even smarter about knowing when it's good to hand you off, I think will be great, and then it'll create a lot

机会给这些工具。

of opportunity for those tools.

而且这些工具可能是各种应用程序。

And perhaps those tools are apps.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得很多都会

Think a lot of them will

变成应用程序

become apps

作为独立的服务提供。

in their own services.

它们会提供一些聊天体验，但功能远不止这些。

They'll have some chat experience, but a lot lot more.

比如你计划旅行时，聊天确实能帮你列个清单，但光这样远远不够。

Know, when you're trying to plan a trip, you know, chat is great to get some list of stuff, but then like It's not awesome.

是的。

Yeah.

你还得把它转化成预订和其他各种操作。

You gotta like turn it into like bookings and lots of other stuff.

再比如你处理财务规划时，能一起梳理问题确实很有帮助。

You know, when you're trying to deal with some financial plan, look, it's great to, like, work through some problems.

你还是得把它们转化成大量具体的细节。

You still need to turn it into, like, a lot of actual details.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得这些产物以及它们的管理，在其他平台上会做得更好。

And I think those artifacts and managing those are gonna be actually better in other services.

是的。

Yeah.

这真有意思。

That's really interesting.

那你是觉得，创作者就足以让AI消费类产品实现规模化了，我们根本不需要专门的AI原生分发渠道？

So then would you say that creators are sufficient for the AI consumer products to get to scale and we don't need an AI native distribution channel?

还是你觉得，其实还是缺了点什么？

Or do you think there's still something on the

出现？

come?

我觉得未来几年我们得弄清楚这一点。

I think this is what we gotta figure out over the next couple years.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得简短的回答是，现在有好多途径可以实现规模化。

I think I think the short answer is there's a lot of ways to get to scale today.

现在人们轻松就能吸引一千万、五千万用户。

People can get to 10,000,000, 50,000,000 users Yeah.

这在以前是根本做不到的。

In ways you never could before.

对。

Yeah.

真正关键的是，你吸引到他们之后，他们会不会真的用你？

And all that really matters is if you get to them, do they actually use you?

你能不能留得住他们？

Do you stick?

你有没有成为他们生活的一部分？

Do you become part of their lives?

所以确实是这样。

So Yeah.

所以我现在更不担心怎么找到让人知道你的推广方式了。

So I'm less worried about finding just the distribution methods for awareness Yeah.

我更关心的是，到底什么样的产品才能真正改变我们的习惯？

As much as, like, what are the products that are actually gonna move our habits and change us?

作为一款人工智能产品，如今你必须比以往任何产品都好上太多。

And part of being an AI product, you know, today is it has to be so much better than the products ever before.

ChatGPT 在很多我们原本以为谷歌已经完美解决的搜索上，表现得非常出色。

ChatGPT was amazing for a whole bunch of searches that we thought were totally solved through Google.

是的。

Yeah.

现在你把那些搜索问题丢给 ChatGPT，就会发现它的回答好上十倍不止。

Now all of sudden, start putting those searches into ChatGPT, you're like, this answer is more than 10 times better.

这种体验比在谷歌链接之间来回跳转好上十倍不止。

This experience is more than 10 times better than Google links back and forth.

我觉得这就是Chat2bt突然爆火的原因。

And I think that's why Chat2bt blew up.

现在消费者面对的每一种体验，都因为能用全新方式构建、呈现和感受而焕然一新，只要你用过一次，就会忍不住感叹：天啊。

And I think for every experience consumers have today, with these new possibilities of building things differently, of presenting things differently, of experiencing them differently, all those things that the moment you use it, you're like, oh my god.

我绝对不可能再回到以前那种方式了。

I can never go back to the old way.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

真的很有趣。

Really interesting.

所以你的意思是，用户留存依然是最重要的指标？

So it sounds like you're saying retention is still the most important metric.

真的吗？

Is that true?

我的意思是，一直以来的核心问题都是：你真的在用这个产品吗？

I mean, I think it's always been this this idea of do you really use the product?

是的。

Yeah.

你懂的。

You know?

如果你能让我去尝试某样东西，这种愿意尝试的心态，在这个时代比以往任何时候都更强烈。

And and if you can get me to try something, and and willingness to try, what's really cool about this era, willingness to try, is bigger than it's always been.

没错。

That's

true.

true.

这正是让我重新对创业和风投充满热情的原因——我们真的能让人们去尝试新事物。

And that's part of what got me so excited to come back to the the startup side and the venture side was we can actually get people to try new things.

是的。

Yes.

但只有当人们真正留下来，把产品融入生活，并且兴奋地向别人推荐时，尝试新事物才有意义。

But trying new things only matters if people stick and bring it into their lives, and it becomes part of their lives in a way that they're so excited to tell about the next people.

大家都想知道，你怎么这么快就积累了这么多用户？

And everybody is like, how do you get to this many users so fast?

答案是：别这么干。

And the answer is don't.

去找一小群人，他们已经彻底把生活转向了你的产品。

Get to a smaller number who have moved their lives over to your product.

对。

Yeah.

他们真正找到了一种全新的生活方式，根本不想回头。

Who have truly found something new that they are doing that they will not wanna go back from.

那

That's

没错。

right.

一旦找到了那个点，接下来就是怎么复制它了。

Once you find that, then it becomes how do we repeat that?

我职业生涯中所有能做的项目，都很幸运地找到了这样的突破口，然后不断积累、放大，让公司真正从这里开始规模化。

And everything I've gotten to work on in my career has been really fortunate to have found its way to that, and then build and compound and set the company up to really scale from that.

是的，这里面其实有些反直觉的智慧，就像保罗·格雷厄姆说的，垄断一个小市场，远比分散在大市场里要强得多。

Yeah, there's some non intuitive wisdom in that, you know, like Paul Graham's whole thing about monopolizing a really small market being much better than, you know, sort of having being diffused across a big market.

同样，安德鲁也经常提到，打造大网络的方法，是先建好一堆小网络，这完全说得通。

Similarly, Andrew talks a bunch about the way to build a big network is to build a bunch of small networks, which makes total sense.

但我们都被灌输了太多‘必须冲到十亿用户’这种思维。

But, you know, we're so overtrained on this, like, go big billion users.

在小规模上做事，其实很难。

It's hard to do things at small scale.

问题是

I mean, the problem

你得同时具备这两种思维能力。

is you have to be able to think in both at the same time.

没错。

Right.

我合作过的最出色的创始人，都懂得既要心怀亿万用户规模的愿景，明白当所有人都在使用时世界会有什么不同，但同时也清楚：今天我还不可能一步到位。

Like like, the best founders I've gotten to work with figured out how to both have that vision of what is billion user scale and why is the world different when we're actually everybody's using it, but then go, but I'm not gonna get there today.

今天，我只需要先搞定眼前这一小步，赢得这片领域，让这群人真正热起来。

Today, I've just gotta get to this, and I have to win this area and convince this group to become passionate.

Robinhood 就是个绝佳的例子，他们一开始就立志要让金融对每个人开放。

Robinhood's an incredible example, where they had a vision to democratize finance for everybody.

你可以想象，那些以前完全接触不到股市、没法参与投资的人，如果也能拥有同样的机会，会有多大的改变。

You can imagine anybody in the world who didn't formally have access to the stock market, to the type of investing products that other people were able to do, feel to give that to everybody.

但这绝不意味着，你得立刻让每个人——连退休账户都包括在内——马上都能用上。

But that certainly didn't mean overnight you need to be getting every single person to be able to do it, you know, in your retirement account and everything else.

根本不是这么回事。

It was like, no.

一开始规模很小，就是想着，嘿。

It started very small with, hey.

如果你正在考虑投资，或者已经在交易了，我们得为你提供更好的产品。

If you are actively thinking about wanting to invest or actively already trading, we should be a better product for you.

是的。

Yeah.

那对于那些还没到这一步、甚至可能永远不想炒个股的人，我们怎么慢慢把平台做得适合所有人？

And then, hey, for those people who aren't there, who might not even ever wanna be investing in single stocks, how can we over time get the right to expand the platform to everybody else?

对。

Right.

但不能一上来就推三十个功能，那样只会让人糊涂，谁也留不住。

But not, let's go out with 30 products today, because that would have confused everybody and landed no one.

很高兴你提到Robinhood，因为从用户传播的角度来看，我们通常把两家公司当作特例来讨论。

Glad you actually mentioned Robinhood because there's two companies we sort of talk about as the exceptions and the consumer lore from a distribution perspective.

一个是Robinhood，另一个是TikTok。

One is Robinhood and one is TikTok.

是的。

Yeah.

你显然亲身参与了这两者。

You've obviously been involved in both.

我们通常这么讲这个故事，你帮我确认一下对不对：Robinhood 确实做了付费获客，而且规模不小，但因为他们用了‘推荐送股票’这个特别巧妙的机制，实际上把获客成本控制得非常低，没有推高整体成本。

So the way we tell the story, you should tell me if this is correct or not, for Robinhood is that they did do paid acquisition, significant paid acquisition, but because it was this very brilliant mechanic of give a stock, get a stock, you sort of had this non inflationary customer acquisition cost

对。

Yeah.

而不是跟 Facebook、Google 这些平台去竞价抢用户。

Versus being in an auction with Facebook and Google, etcetera.

所以他们就这么把规模做起来了，即便用的是付费方式，也照样成功了。

So you're you know, they were able to scale it, and it worked even though it was paid.

过去我们一般会说，

And historically, we sort of say, well,

规模化之后，付费获客就会出问题。

paid is a problem at scale.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得Robin有意思的地方在于，他们一开始根本没做付费推广。

You know, I think what's interesting with Robin is they didn't start paid.

他们推出的产品，只是想提供一种更好的股票投资方式。

They they started with a product that they thought was just a better way to invest in the stock market.

把交易佣金去掉。

Let's remove the cost of commission.

那时候，其他大平台每笔交易至少要收五美元。

Mean, back then, it cost $5 or more a trade with any of the other big platforms.

对吧。

Right.

于是他们决定，想办法把服务免费提供出去。

And so they said, We're gonna figure out how to give it away for free.

我们知道肯定有别的盈利方式，比如通过生态体系找到了几种对NFPF来说更划算的交易模式。

We know there's gonna be other ways that we can monetize, including, you know, they found several mechanisms through the ecosystem that still were better trading costs for NFPF.

当然，PFOS。

Sure, PFOS.

但关键在于，一开始全靠口碑传播，他们还发现了Reddit上的机会。

But the key was it was all word-of-mouth at the beginning, and they figured out how they were on Reddit.

Reddit上有一些社区对它特别热情。

There were Reddit communities that were really excited about it.

很多人在手机上互相推荐，说想投资股市。

Anybody just word-of-mouth on mobile was saying, I kind of want invest in the stock market.

这个应用太棒了。

This app is great.

顺便说一句，它的设计也很漂亮。

And by way, it also had beautiful design.

处理别人的钱时，信任是至关重要的。

One of the things that you needed when you were dealing with people's money was trust.

漂亮的界面，一个让人感觉用心投入的应用——这确实很特别。

Beautiful design, an app that showed that people cared and put a lot into it- That's interesting.

这让Robinhood一开始就有了可信度。

Really helped Robinhood have that initial credibility.

后来他们慢慢琢磨，接下来该怎么扩张呢？

Over time, was figuring out, okay, how do we grow from here?

试了很多办法。

Tried a lot of things.

确实投过一些付费广告，你知道吗？

Definitely tried some paid ads, and you know what?

结果发现，免费交易反而最有效。

They worked free.

免费交易对本来就想炒股的人很有吸引力，但对其他人就没那么管用；真正厉害的是推荐奖励计划。

Free trading was a message that worked for people who were already kind of in a trading mindset, but if you weren't, it wasn't, but the referral program was really magic.

其实推荐计划的灵感并不是来自那些大名鼎鼎的项目。

And the seed to the referral program wasn't there's a lot of referral programs that were big enough time.

像Airbnb和Uber那种，推荐一人送十块，这种模式早就有了。

Airbnb, Uber had ones like, give 10, get 10.

你介绍一个人来，就能拿10美元。

You'll get $10 for getting somebody.

你也会送出10美元。

You'll give $10.

给成功注册的人奖励10美元。

The $10 to the starter for the person who does it.

对。

Yeah.

这种奖励挺吸引人的，毕竟直接给现金，不是折扣。

And, like, those are nice because you have a little bit of a discount, but it's a dollar amount.

你会想，这10美元值不值？

You're like, is it worth $10?

我为了这10美元，真把朋友拉下水？

Am I trading off my friend for $10?

对。

Yeah.

罗宾汉，这是十块钱让你去投资的。

Robinhood, here's $10 to invest.

你拿十块钱打算投啥？

What are you gonna invest in for $10?

是的。

Yeah.

说实话，谁也说不准。

Know, nobody knows.

是的。

Yeah.

你根本连一股都买不起。

You know, you couldn't even buy a share.

所以团队就想出了这么个办法，让人能拿到或送出一股。

So the team came up with this mechanic to figure out how to make it give and get a share.

对。

Mhmm.

一整股股票。

An actual share.

然后他们利用了这股票像抽奖一样的特性。

And then was able to use the fact that that share was a lottery.

有时候是两美元的股票，有时候是一百美元的股票。

Sometimes it would be a $2 stock, sometimes it would be a $100 stock.

有不少人抽到了一百美元的股票，到处夸，特别兴奋。

And enough people got the $100 stock that they raved about it, and that made them very, very excited.

有人抽到两美元的股票，也说：哎，我真有一整股股票。

People get the $2 stock and go, Oh, I have a whole share of stock.

我可以卖了它。

I can sell that.

我账户里多了两块钱，之前根本没有。

I have $2 in my account that I didn't have before.

Robinhood 能把这种机制平衡得这么好，成本低得惊人。

And Robin's ability to balance that made it a very, very cost effective mechanism.

所以你看，当你用付费广告吸引那些本来就容易接受这个信息的人，再通过推荐计划让他们去分享和推广，虽然推荐不算纯粹的口口相传，但也非常接近了。

So look, when you're doing paid ads to bring people in who are already susceptible to the message, when you're bringing in this referral program to then have people share it and advocate it, and again, referral is not quite as pure as word-of-mouth, but it's pretty close.

我只会去推荐那些我自己至少相信的东西。

That's I'm only gonna bother somebody if I at least believe in it.

或者我的激励足够诱人——他们很清楚这些激励是什么，因为每个人拿到的都一样。

Or the incentive for me is so good, which they know the incentives, they're getting the same one.

于是这逐渐变成了一种强大的机制，品牌就这样不断积累，人们越来越信任它，产品设计也越来越好。

And so it really became this powerful mechanism, And then the brand just kept building and building and building, and people started to trust it more, and the design got even better.

是的。

Yeah.

突然有一天，你就会意识到，哇，

All of a sudden, one day you're like, woah.

这已经不再是那个小小的金融初创公司了，其他所有公司都开始取消佣金，因为他们终于意识到威胁了。

This is no longer this little upstart financial thing, but every other company is dropping commissions because they now see the threat.

嘉信理财就是这么做的。

You know, Schwab did it.

美林也这么做了。

Ameritrade did it.

随后，嘉信收购了美林。

Schwab then went and bought Ameritrade.

整个券商行业都被彻底改变了，原本只是个想让金融更平民化的初创公司，对吧。

Like, it transformed, you know, the brokerages all from this little plucky, let's try to democratize finance Yeah.

但关键是早点抓住那些用户。

But get the people who we can early.

这充分展现了创始人主导的公司，即使上市后依然拥有强大生命力。

Well, it really demonstrates the power of a founder led company even being post public.

你看弗拉德现在在做的，那种自主交易功能。

Because now you see what Vlad is doing, sort of agentic trading stuff.

可以说，他在这一块上投入得最深了。

I mean, it seems like he's leaned the most into it out of everyone.

说实话，我离开之后，他们把公司做到这个地步，真让我大吃一惊。

I mean, I I'm just blown away by what they've done with the company, you know, since I've been gone.

是的

Yeah.

我是在2019年底离开的，没想到公司现在发展得这么出色，真正实现了当初的愿景，而且覆盖了多个平台。

I left in at the end of twenty nineteen, and and it's turned into this incredible for the realizing the vision, multiplatform.

是的

Yeah.

它早就不再只是做交易了。

It's no longer just trading.

它还涵盖了退休理财。

It's, you know, retirement.

还有信用卡服务。

It's credit card.

是的

Yeah.

现在还加入了银行业务，各种产品都延续了一贯的用户体验、设计风格和信任感。

It's got some banking components, and they have the all these products that bring in the same care, design, trust for the user Mhmm.

真正地在创造价值。

Truly trying to bring value.

弗拉德在带领团队方面做得非常出色。

And Vlad has just done an incredible job navigating the seas.

这段路也经历过不少坎坷。

It went through some real bumpy times too.

很多优秀公司都经历过生死存亡的时刻，罗宾汉也遇到过几次。在市场剧烈波动、GameStop事件那种几乎危及品牌存亡的关头，他们最终还是回归了核心价值观。

I mean, so many great companies have had these existential crisis moments, and Robinhood has had a few, but both between some crazy downtimes that happened and critical moments in in the stock market, what happened around GameStop that felt like that almost might be existential for the brand, but they came back to their core values.

是的。

Yeah.

出色的设计、优质的产品、让用户信赖，让人愿意主动分享，他们真的重新赢回了用户，并且从那之后实现了大幅增长。

Great design, great product, trust for the user, something people are proud to talk about and share, and they've really been able to win people back and and grow a ton from there.

太棒了。

Amazing.

他们做得真的很出色。

They've done so well.

所以我们已经提到，Robinhood 是靠推荐机制起步的。

So we've established that Robinhood was a referral program.

那接下来聊聊 Musical.ly 和 TikTok 的关系吧。

So now talk about maybe just teed up, talk about musical.ly TikTok.

不是所有人都知道这两者之间的联系。

Not everybody may know the connection.

对。

Yeah.

然后再说说他们是怎么快速增长的，因为 TikTok 是另一个绝佳的例外——每当有人说‘付费推广在规模上行不通’，大家总会举出 TikTok 的例子。

And then how they grew because they are the other great exception, which is anytime we say, well, pay doesn't really work at scale, people say, but TikTok.

没错。

Yeah.

这其实是个特别复杂的多阶段故事。

Well, and and this is a a crazy kind of multipart story.

你知道，Musical.

You know, Musical.

Ly 是中国的一个小团队，原本想为西方市场做产品。

Ly was a group of a small team in China that was trying to build for the western markets.

这其实是他们最初的设想。

That was actually their initial vision.

他们一开始想做个教育类应用，但没做起来。

They were starting to trying to build an education app, hadn't really worked.

他们注意到有人在玩搞怪的对口型视频，于是决定做个简单的对口型应用。

They had seen some fun things happening around lip syncing, and so they decided that they were gonna build a little lip sync app.

对。

Mhmm.

他们做出来之后，上架到 App Store，名字就叫‘Lip Sync’。

And they built this, and they put it on the App Store, it said lip sync.

每周用户量都会突然飙升，创始人亚历克斯——也就是 Musical.ly 的创始人，后来还去管了 TikTok——跟我讲过这事，说他们特别困惑，最后才发现，每周四晚上用户量会暴涨，因为那天 MTV 播出《对口型大战》。

And they were seeing spikes every week, because Alex, who was the founder of musical.ly and actually went and ran a lot of TikTok, was telling me this, that they were so confused, and they found out finally that, like, the spikes on Thursday night, I think it was Thursday, was because of when Lip Sync Battle appeared on, like, MTV.

明白了。

Okay.

所以《唇语大战》一播，人们就会去App Store搜‘唇语’，然后下载Musical。

So, like, Lip Sync Battle would run, and then people would go type Lip Sync into the App Store, and they download Musical.

接着就开始制作自己的唇语视频。

And they start creating lip syncs.

这挺有意思的。

Interesting.

Musical.ly在产品设计上做了两个非常聪明的决定。

And musical.ly, they'll design their product in two really smart ways.

第一，用户很容易把拍好的视频分享到其他平台。

The first was it was really easy to take your video and still go post it elsewhere.

你可以做出一个很棒的唇语视频，是的，

So you could create this great lip sync video Mhmm.

然后发到别的地方去。

And post it elsewhere.

第二点是，他们还专门精选了一批优质的唇语视频放在首页推荐。

But the second thing was they also curated a feed of the great lip sync videos.

所以你打开应用后，滑一滑，加些好友，拍个视频，然后发到Instagram上。

So when you'd open the app, you'd swipe through, you'd add some friends, and you'd create your video, and you might go post it on Instagram.

对。

Yep.

于是就形成了这样一个循环：创作出别处根本做不出的高质量内容，再发到Instagram，关注朋友，看他们发的东西，顺便也看到平台精心推荐的其他精彩视频。

And so that loop was create something you couldn't create anywhere else at the level of quality, then be able to post it out to Instagram, and your friends, you'd start following your friends, you'd see what your friends had posted alongside some other really cool stuff they were curating.

明白。

Mhmm.

他们发现Instagram上有一批人，算不上顶级网红，但也没人关注，平时就发点照片，而当时Instagram的视频功能刚上线。

So they really created this loop, and then they found out that there were a bunch of, I'd call them, like, b plus stars on Instagram who weren't quite getting enough credibility and were only posting pictures, and Instagram video was just coming out at the time.

于是他们想，不如用Musical.ly拍点酷炫内容，发到Instagram主页上。

And they were like, let me use musical.ly to create some cool content for my Instagram feed.

明白了。

Got it.

而在Musical.ly上，他们反而成了最受欢迎的明星。

And then on in on musical.ly, they'd become the number one stars.

他们成了顶级网红，粉丝最多，因为总被推荐到动态里。

They'd become the a listers, the ones with the most followers because they were getting featured in the feed.

于是你就有了这样一个循环：网红们在Instagram上疯狂发内容，你开始注意到Musical。

So now you have this loop where the influencers were posting a ton of stuff on Instagram, so you're starting to see Musical.

在Instagram上。

On Instagram.

动态体验变好了，人们也跟朋友聊起这事，一切开始越滚越大。

Starting to have a better experience in the feed, and people were talking about it with their friends, and it all started to compound.

另一个秘密是，Instagram页面底部总有个小小的Musical.ly标识。

And the other secret was there was always a little musical.ly bug at the bottom of the Instagram page.

对吧？

Right?

没错。

Right.

当然了

And, of course

你其实可以把视频下载下来。

You can actually download the video.

那时候这事儿简直闻所未闻。

It was, like, unheard of at the time.

你先在 Musical 里制作视频。

You'd create the video in Musical.

下载之后，再上传到 Instagram。

Download it, upload it to Instagram.

对。

Yeah.

他们一直保留着 musical.ly 的水印。

They would keep the musical.ly bug.

没错。

Right.

很多人都会把水印裁掉。

People were cutting that out.

没错。

Right.

这就形成了一种特别好的循环。

And it created this this great loop.

公司很快就壮大起来了。

And the company got really big.

每天的用户数达到了几千万甚至上亿。

We got to, you know, tens and tens of millions of users daily.

很多人都试过，产品状态好得惊人。

You know, hundreds had tried it, and it was in incredible shape.

后来他们开始考虑：是继续独立发展、再融一大笔钱，还是被收购？结果字节跳动给出了一个非常诱人的收购要约。

And then they started thinking about whether or not to keep going independently, raise a lot more money, of sell, and got this incredible offer from ByteDance to go and join ByteDance.

而字节跳动当时在中国已经有一个叫抖音的产品，规模非常大。

And ByteDance had had a product, Douyin, that was very, very large in China.

所以他们其实也参考了不少 Musical 的做法。

And so they had kind of both modeled some after Musical.

Ly公司自己也有创新，还有一支出色的AI团队。

Ly, had had their own invention, and had this great AI team.

他们觉得，我们可以帮Musical更上一层楼。

And they were like, we can help Musical.

进一步扩大在全球的影响力。

Scale even more worldwide.

没错。

Yeah.

于是他们收购了Musical。

And so they they bought Musical.

Ly以及原本在中国的团队，就此并入了那个核心团队。

Ly, and the team that was already in China became part of that that high tensing.

之后他们花了大约六个月的时间，不断调整、重构产品，把Musical和Ly整合在一起。

And then they they spent about six months or so kind of tinkering, rebuilding their product, moving Musical.

最终统一到了同一个代码库中。

Ly and into a shared code base.

是的

Yeah.

然后他们重新上线，加入了广告和资金投入。

And then they relaunched it with ads, with dollars.

因为他们意识到，要从当前状态达到我们想要的目标，必须投入更多资源。

Because what they figured out was to get from here to where we wanna go, we need to pour a lot more into it.

明白了。

Okay.

他们确实花了不少钱。

They got they spent.

那时候，他们可能是Facebook、Twitter等各大社交媒体上最大的广告主之一，就为了让人下载抖音，但产品本身的体验太好了，用户留住了。

They were probably one of the biggest spenders on Facebook, Twitter, kind of every social media to get people to download TikTok at that time, but the product loop was so good that everybody retained.

是的

Yeah.

你一注册，只要滑几下，内容就变得特别懂你。

Because you would sign up for it, and all of a sudden, with a couple of swipes, were deeply personalized.

那些原本在 Musical.ly 上的朋友又回来了，开始尝试新东西。

Your friends who were already there on musical.ly were coming back and trying new things.

你看到这些变化，感觉特别有活力，整个闭环就运转起来了。

You were seeing that, and it was really energizing, and the whole loop worked.

虽然他们为了推广还是砸了很多钱，但用户留存效果真的很好。

Now it still took them pouring a lot of money in to get that distribution, but the retention really worked.

与此同时，我还开玩笑说，Quibi 也花了差不多的钱，想让人下载他们的应用，是吧。

And I joke at the same time, Quibi was pouring similar amounts of money to get people to download Quibi Yeah.

但效果没那么好。

Which didn't totally work.

没那么成功。

Didn't work as well.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

好吧。

Well, okay.

所以你的意思是，如果你有一个高留存的良性循环，就可以用付费推广，而且没问题？

So is the lesson from that then that if you have a high highly retained working loop, you can do paid, and it's okay?

只要用户明白这是怎么回事，我不反对付费推广。

I I have no problem with people doing paid if they understand it.

对。

Yeah.

花钱吸引那些会成为忠实用户、并且愿意帮你传播的人，能起到很好的推动作用。

Like, paid to both get people in who will become very good retained users, and who will spread the word for you, can be a great catalyst.

你不能花大钱去拉十个人，只为留下一个真正留下来用你产品的人，还觉得这能规模化，因为这种做法只会越来越贵。

What you can't do is spend a lot of money to burn 10 people to find the one who actually stuck with your product, and think that that's gonna scale because that only gets more and more expensive.

没错。

That's right.

对。

Yeah.

你知道吗，这挺有意思的。

You know, it's interesting.

这跟我们之前讨论过的一个话题有点相关，那就是：一方面，消费者愿意为软件付费，而且花的钱还不小。

It's sort of adjacent to this as a debate we've had, which is, on one hand, it's amazing that consumers are willing to pay for software and in a big way.

你看ChatGPT顶级套餐，一个月2.5美元。

You know, if you look at the top ChatGPT skew, it's $2.50 a month.

Grok的顶级套餐一个月300美元。

The top grok skew is 300 a month.

Gemini Ultra，我记得也是一个月300美元。

Gemini Ultra, I think is 300 a month.

真没想到，消费者真的愿意为软件买单。

So wow, consumers are paying for software.

但另一方面，因为推理成本不是零，分发也有开销，没有雄厚资金支持，根本没法做大规模的免费产品。

On the other hand, because there's no zero marginal cost of distribution, inference costs money, you can't really build a mass market free product without a massive balance sheet.

这到底是更好了、更糟了，还是只是改变了创业公司的形态？

Is it net better, worse, is it just changing the shape of startups?

你觉得呢？

I mean, what's your view?

我觉得，人们愿意付费、也必须付费，这种趋势正在变化。

I mean, I think it's I think there's a willingness to pay and necessity to pay

对。

Yeah.

这种趋势确实在转变。

Is definitely shifting.

没错。

Yeah.

你知道吗，十五年前、二十年前，一切都往云端迁移，那时候我们公司的启动成本比以往低多了。

You know, we had this period, you know, fifteen, twenty years ago, where everything was shifting to the cloud, and all of a sudden, the startup costs for our company became much less than ever before.

不用再买一堆服务器、摆机架，虽然运行起来还是要花点带宽和算力的钱，但对初创公司来说，成本其实低得惊人。

You didn't have to buy a bunch of servers and rack them, and, you know, sure, serving costs a little bit of money in bandwidth and compute use, but it was actually relatively low for what you thought you were getting as a startup.

但现在，如果你要跑大量推理任务，就得靠客户愿意为此买单了。

Obviously now, if you're running a ton of inference, you need your customers to be willing to pay for it.

但我认为他们确实愿意，现在用户在应用内付费的门槛比以往任何时候都低多了。

But I think they are, and the ability to pay in apps is so much easier than it's ever been.

只要你提供的东西有价值，收款就会很简单，我觉得这一点至关重要。

Getting payments is easy if you're providing value, and I think you have to.

我觉得这对那些需要巨大网络效应的公司来说是个挑战。

I think it hurts companies that need massive network effects.

对。

Yeah.

过去大规模网络效应的好处之一，就是能免费触达所有人，这确实帮了大忙。

Because part of the benefit of these massive network effects was free distribution to everybody Yeah.

帮你快速起步。

Helps you get there.

我们还没完全搞清楚这个平衡点在哪，但我很期待在未来几年里去探索这个问题。

And so haven't totally figured out what that balance is, but I think that's what I'm excited to go work through over the next few years.

对。

Yeah.

各种初创公司。

Various startups.

对。

Yeah.

看起来其中有一项

It seems like one of

可能就是真正能改变这一点的因素，比如iPhone如果配备了非常强大的GPU。

the things that could really change that is if iPhones get really powerful GPUs.

那

That's

确实。

right.

如果未来某件事没有发生，那听起来简直不可思议。

It's it would seem crazy for that to not happen at some point in the future.

不过我觉得，随着我们能在iPhone或笔记本上运行的模型的发展，我们会逐渐摸索出如何把更多复杂或不太复杂的推理任务推出去，是的。

But I think we're gonna be figuring out with the models even that you can run on iPhones or on laptops, how to push more and more of the complex or the the less complex inference that needs to be done Yeah.

把计算移到设备端，降低成本。

Onto device to lower the cost.

我的意思是，无论你是想优化标题、重写一段话，还是回答一些基础问题，现在设备上运行的模型已经足够强大，完全可以胜任这些任务。

I mean, there's no reason that everything you're ever trying to do, whether it's refining a title or just, you know, rewriting a paragraph or answering some basic questions, those can actually use models that are incredibly powerful that come out of devices now.

是的。

Yeah.

只有更复杂的需求才上传到云端。

And then you only send the more complex stuff up.

我觉得，从企业端来看，这种做法会大量出现；从消费者端来看，聪明的创业者也会主动优化这一点。

And I think, you know, both from the enterprise side, you're gonna see a ton of that, and I think from the consumer side, I think really smart founders are gonna optimize that too.

对。

Yeah.

这会很有意思。

It'll be interesting.

我知道Carpathi已经做了不少相关工作。

I know that Carpathi has done a bunch of work.

已经有人证明了，在 x86 架构的处理器上训练和运行模型是可行的。

Few folks have shown that you can actually train and run models on three eighty sixes and four eighty sixes.

所以我相信，肯定还有很多传统的工程手段，能让模型更多地部署到边缘端。

So I'm sure there's also just a lot of good old fashioned engineering that will make the models, you know, push more and more to the edge.

没错。

That's right.

好，接下来我们要聊的一个话题是，那些头部实验室会不会通吃一切？

Okay, so one one topic that we discuss a lot is, are the labs just gonna win it all?

要不我们都回家算了？

Should we all just go home?

而且我

And I

知道大家总有一种感觉，觉得

know it feels like we have

每次有新产品的周期，这种对话就会重演一遍。

a version of this conversation every time there's a new product cycle.

你怎么看？

What's your view?

我觉得换个角度想挺有意思的，二十年前，大家都说，谷歌难道不会包办一切吗？

So I think a funny a funny way to think about this is, you know, twenty years, everybody was like, well, won't Google just do it?

对吧？

Right?

结果后来他们真的什么都能做。

And then all of a sudden, could do everything.

确实，谷歌在不少领域都拓展得非常好。

And certainly, there's a bunch of categories that Google has absolutely expanded on and done great.

二十年前，有大量初创公司后来成长为巨头企业。

There's a twenty years ago, there's a ton of startups that have grown and become massive companies since then.

十五年前，也就是2030年前后，大家又都说，苹果难道不会把所有事都做了吗？

You know, fifteen years ago, 2030 era, everybody was like, well, isn't Apple just gonna do it all?

所有应用都得是他们自家的。

It's gonna be everything's gonna be their own mobile apps.

对。

Right.

现在这个移动应用盛行的世界，那些我们以前根本想不到的社交应用。

Now this great world of, you know, mobile enabled apps that we could have never imagined before, these social apps.

但大约十年前，我也开始有这种想法了。

But about ten years ago, I kinda started thinking that too.

是的。

Yeah.

我开始琢磨，像现在这种拥有十亿以上用户的网络平台，是否还容得下新的消费类创业公司从零做起。

I kinda started thinking about, I'm not sure if there's a world in these networks that are now 1,000,000,000 plus users Yeah.

能不能真的从头打造一个新的消费者创业公司。

If you can truly build another consumer startup from scratch.

这正是我后来离开风投行业的原因之一。

It's part of why I actually left Venture

明白。

Mhmm.

我想重新开始创业，就这么决定了。

To go, and I said, I just wanna build again.

后来我就去了罗宾汉。

And I went to Robinhood Yeah.

这让我转而想到苹果，说实话，我不确定在纯粹的消费领域还能不能做出真正大的产品。

That led led me over to Apple said, Gosh, I'm not sure if you can actually build something big enough in kind of pure consumer areas.

我不确定自己是不是想错了。

And I'm not sure if I was wrong.

当然，我跟腾讯的人聊过。

Mean, had me chatting with teas, obviously.

那Discord呢？

But what about Discord?

我确实投资了Discord，那时候我们刚把Musical.ly卖了。

Well, I had invested in Discord, and we had just sold musical.ly.

是的。

Yeah.

我当时就觉得，这些项目一定能撑下去。

And I was like, those are gonna make it through.

我加入了Robinhood，我觉得这个项目肯定能成功。

I joined Robinhood, which I said that one's gonna make it through.

但从零开始，你得积累足够的势头，才能达到十亿用户的规模。

But starting from scratch, you have to get enough momentum to get to that billion user scale.

我当时有点怀疑，不确定能不能做到。

I was like, I'm not so sure.

对。

Yeah.

这也是我自己的想法——如果我真的不相信能找到这条路，那我还不如直接去动手做这些项目。

And this is part of part of my own, like, if I didn't really believe that I could find that path and venture, I was gonna go and work on them instead.

我之所以去苹果，就是想在最大的平台上学习和工作，把价值送到每个人的口袋里。

You know, part of why I went to Apple was to go learn and work at the biggest scale you can and try to deliver that value to everybody's pocket.

但我觉得，现在世界又变得开放起来了。

But I think right now, I think the world is so open again.

是的

Yeah.

我觉得主要的聊天机器人和助手将来会为我们做很多事情。

I think that the main chatbots, the main assistants are gonna do a lot for us.

是的

Yeah.

我们会依赖它们处理大量事务，但我觉得我们还会期待所有东西都像它们那样运作，从而彻底改变我们生活中的各种方式、服务和做事方法。这样一来，能填补我们生活各个角落、帮助我们连接、获取信息、探索新事物的机会，不可能只被两三个产品垄断。

We're gonna rely on them for a lot of things, but I think we're gonna expect everything to work like them, and we're gonna rewire so much else of what we do in life and our services and the way we get things done, that the opportunities to fill all of those areas of our lives and help us connect and help us get information that we want and help us explore things are not just gonna go to, like, there's only two products we ever use.

对

Yes.

是的

Yeah.

是的

Yeah.

不是

No.

不对。

No.

你听我说。

Look.

我完全同意。

I totally agree.

而且我觉得，初创公司有大公司和实验室做不到的独特优势。

And I I also think there are ways that startups can play that incumbents can't and labs can't.

明白吗？

Know?

在我看来，Companion 就是绝佳的例子，因为它触及了大科技公司每个委员会都不想让你碰的东西。

To me, Companion is such a great example of this, because I feel like Companion touches on everything that every committee at a big tech company doesn't want you to do.

比如，有分歧、有概率性行为、有性相关的内容——这些互动方式都非常人性化。

You know, there's disagreement, there is probabilistic behavior, there's sexuality, there's, you know, there's just all these ways that you can interact with a product that are very human.

而你知道，当你做到超大规模时，很难推出这类功能。

And as you know, when you're at really big scale, it's hard to ship things like that.

我觉得确实如此，虽然我曾经在一家超大的公司工作过，但学会推出真正有意义、能让世界变得更好的产品，这恰恰是我们工作的核心价值，也是你能做到的事。

You know, I think it is, although having been part of, you know, one of the biggest companies, learning to ship things that matter and make the world better is kind of the fundamental value of what we do and and and the fundamental value of what you can do Right.

当你身处那种规模的公司时。

When you get to work at that scale.

但每当我想到像Companion这样的产品、娱乐，还有AI如何带我们开启全新的体验，我就觉得它和过去所有东西都截然不同，简直令人惊叹。

But when I think about things like the the companion products and entertainment and how AI can sort of take us on these journeys, I think it's incredible how much different it can be than everything we've had in the past.

我们以前从未有过这样的体验。

We've never had an experience like that.

另一方面，这也意味着巨大的责任。

On the other hand, I think it's also a high level of responsibility.

我们必须格外小心，尤其在对待孩子、安全、性议题，以及那些正经历心理困扰的人时——不能让他们从产品中得到的只是孤立，而应该是真正帮他们 reconnect 社群，或找到所需的帮助。

We have to be very, very careful with kids, with safety, with sexuality, with letting people who might be going through any mental challenges to feel like they're getting something served through a product that isn't bringing them back to the community, or helping them get the help they need.

所以我们必须找到这个平衡点，但一旦你接受这不过是基本底线，还有很多领域是其他产品根本不敢触碰的。

So I think we have to very much find that balance, but then once you accept that that's just the baseline, there's so much to explore that not every product wants to be.

很多产品根本不想当你的知己。

Lots of products don't want to be your best friend.

说实话，如果你用过新版的Siri，真的特别厉害。

Mean, if you've used the new Siri, it's incredible.

它主要就是帮你把事情搞定。

It's very much trying to help you get things done.

它的设计初衷就是帮你高效完成任务。

It's designed to help you get things done.

它能结合你已有的内容和体验，了解你的习惯，还能访问外界信息来帮你做事，完全不需要一味奉承，也不用老说‘你今天真好看’这类话来塑造人格；但有些场景下，你确实希望它能给你穿搭建议、提供穿搭技巧，像朋友一样跟你互动，那种体验完全是另一类产品。

It's incredible helping you get things done with the experiences and the content that you already have, and what it knows about you, and what it can go access in the world, but it doesn't need to be sycophantic, and it doesn't need to be like, You look great today, and create that personality, but there are other experiences where you actually might want opinions on a wardrobe, and how you dress, and give you tips, and treat you a little bit more in that human relationship, I think it's a very different product.

是的。

Yeah.

挺有意思的，如果你把这两者拆开来看，确实有一类产品，它的核心就是帮你办事，本来就没打算有情感温度。

It's interesting, because if you almost unbundle the two, you there there's a product that's just about getting things done Yeah.

这种产品从设计上就刻意不带人情味。

You know, which is sort of almost has no soul by design.

没错。

Yeah.

这很好，我们也确实需要这样的产品。

And that's great, and we need that.

但还有一类产品，它们反映的是我们在现实生活中做的事——比如我加入排球队，其实是为了交朋友，打排球只是建立成年男性友谊的一种间接方式。

But then there's also these products that might mirror things we do in the rest of the world, which is I might join a volleyball team because I'm looking for friends, and volleyball is like a level of indirection to building new adult male friendships.

所以我觉得，也会出现类似这样的陪伴型产品。

So I think there will also be companion products that look like that.

我完全同意。

I agree a 100%.

我觉得还有很多这样的产品，能帮我们更多地参与生活、探索世界，在后台默默协助我们和他人互动，找到真正适合自己的方式。

I think there's so many that can help us do more of that and explore the world and use, you know, in the background, do things with other people and try to figure out what makes sense for you.

对。

Yes.

顺便说一句，我觉得即使是那种以办事为主的产品，也有它的灵魂，只是它的灵魂很不一样。

And by the way, I would argue that even the get things done has a soul, but it has a very different soul.

它并不是想取代任何人类关系，这些技术本质上都不是为了取代，而是为了增强人与人之间的联系。

It's not trying to replace any human relationships, and none of this really is trying to It's all trying to augment relationships.

它根本不是想让你觉得它像个人似的。

It's not even trying to make you perceive it in some sort of human way.

它就是想真正成为一个工具。

It's trying to really be a tool.

这正是我们技术人该做的。

And that's what we are as technologists.

我们是造工具的人。

We're toolmakers.

我们做出的东西，本身可以是中立的。

We make things, and they can be net neutral.

我们的责任是给它们注入人性，没错。

And it's our job to infuse humanity into them Yeah.

不管我们做什么，都得这样。

No matter what we do.

这话太棒了，兄弟。

I love that, man.

是的

Yeah.

这确实让人感觉，这项技术是在帮助我们探索人性，而以前我们从未有过这样的技术。

It does feel like this is a technology to explore humanity, and we never had that before, actually.

我们以前有很多技术是用来拓展智力的。

You know, we've had a lot of technology to extend our intellect.

对

Yeah.

这些技术带我们走到了很多了不起的成就。

And that's led us to incredible things.

比如这周SpaceX的进展就是最好的例子。

I mean, SpaceX this week is is the best example

没错。

of it.

但我们真没怎么有过哪种技术，能让我们更深入地反思自己。

But we really haven't had any technology that sort of, I don't know, helped us be a little more self reflective.

是的。

Yeah.

你知道，社交类产品很有趣，但它们更多是在探索我们作为群体的行为，而不是作为个体。

You know, social products are fascinating, but it's sort of exploring us as groups instead of us as individuals.

不对。

No.

我觉得这种看法特别深刻，关于我们能用这项新技术做些什么，而它的很大一部分其实是在帮人变得更好。

I I think that that's a a really profound way to think about what we can do with this new technology, and so much of it is helping you be better.

我见过一些特别棒的小应用，教人们通过练习第一次约会的对话来学习如何约会。

I mean, I've seen these great little apps that are helping people learn to date by practicing first date conversations.

没错。

Right.

完全对。

Totally.

这事儿听起来挺滑稽的，我们俩可能都年纪不小了，现在也不处在那种生活状态。

And it's one of those things that it sounds funny, we're probably both older and not in that lifestyle right now.