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在过去的三个月里，我们经历了一个巨大的飞跃，从智能体只是旁观者，变成了真正的行动者，因为它们现在有了手和脚，也就是支付凭证。
In the last three months, we've had this huge leap from agents being what I would call spectators to agents being actors, because they effectively have arms and legs, which are payment credentials.
亚马逊最近封禁了Muse，原因有很多。
Amazon recently blocked Muse, and there are many reasons for this.
你可以选择对抗智能体商务，也可以选择高度接纳它。
You can either be antagonistic to agentic commerce, or you can be highly receptive.
随着Muse和Instinct的崛起，一旦它们获得了支付凭证，它们的实用性就大大增加了。
What's happened with the rise of Muse and Instinct is once they have access to payment credentials, their utility increases.
所以我们算是开启了所谓的钱包大战，现在每个钱包都在争相连接智能体。
So we sort of have kicked off what I kind of call the wallet wars, where every wallet is now rushing to connect to the agents.
所有收听这个播客的人，我几乎可以保证你们在VGS存有凭证。
Everybody who's listening to this podcast, I almost guarantee you have a credential that's stored at VGS.
最大的在线商家、最大的新型银行和最大的前沿实验室都在使用VGS来保护支付凭证。
The largest online merchants, the largest neobanks, and the largest frontier labs all use VGS to secure payment credentials.
这确实是一个非常有利的地位。
It's a really formidable position to be in.
你觉得VGS会往哪个方向发展？
Where do you think VGS is going to go?
我觉得我们正在——
I think we're-
AI代理正在从推荐你买什么，变成真的替你买。
AI agents are moving from recommending what you should buy to actually buying it for you.
这引出了一个看似简单实则很难的问题：怎么才能安全地让AI接触你的钱？
That creates a deceptively hard question: how do you safely give an AI access to your money?
本期节目，a16z普通合伙人Alex Rampell与VGS首席战略官Terry Angelos一起，深入探讨代理商务背后的紧急支付基础设施。
In this episode, a16z general partner Alex Rampell sits down with VGS chief strategy officer Terry Angelos to unpack the emergency payment infrastructure behind agentic commerce.
他们聊到了新的钱包大战，支付凭证如何在消费者、代理和商家之间安全流转，以及为什么新的代理代币能让AI进行交易，同时不破坏消费者已经习惯的信用卡保护机制。
They discuss the new wallet wars, how payment credentials could move safely between consumers, agents, and merchants, and why new agentic tokens could allow AI to transact without breaking the protections consumers already expect from credit cards.
他们还讨论了当代理买错东西时会发生什么，为什么有些商家可能会主动抵制代理商务，以及当AI不断为消费者优化时，从信用卡返现到订阅服务等一切经济模式会如何改变。
They also get into what happens when an agent buys the wrong thing, why some merchants may actively resist agentic commerce, and how the economics of everything from credit card rewards to subscriptions could change when an AI is constantly optimizing on the consumer's behalf.
因为让代理拥有花钱的能力，不仅让它们更有用，还可能重塑谁掌控客户关系这一根本问题。
Because giving agents the ability to spend doesn't just make them more useful, it could reshape who controls the customer relationship itself.
大家好，我是Alex Rampell，安德森·霍洛维茨的合伙人，今天和我一起的是Terry Angelos。
Hi, everyone, I'm Alex Rampell, partner at Andreessen Horowitz, and I'm here joined by Terry Angelos.
能和Terry一起我非常兴奋，因为Terry和我在2006年一起创办了一家叫TrialPay的公司，那是很久很久以前的事了。
And I'm very excited about being joined by Terry because Terry and I started a company called TrialPay in 2006, a long, long time ago.
20年前了。
20 years ago.
20年前了。
20 years ago.
Alex那时候看起来完全不一样。
Alex looked very different.
是的。
Yes.
你看起来还是老样子。
You look the same.
所以我觉得你是在损我，而我是在夸你，希望不是反过来的。
So I think you're insulting me and I'm complimenting you, and hopefully not the other way around.
但今天，这才是最酷的部分。
But today, this is the really cool part.
我在这里最早的投资之一是一家叫VGS的公司，全称是Very Good Security。
One of my first investments here was a company called VGS, which stands for Very Good Security.
有些人可能没意识到这其实是个双关或玩笑，因为最著名的密码学公司之一叫PGP，全称是Pretty Good Privacy。
And some people might not get that's actually a pun or a joke because one of the most famous cryptography companies was called PGP, which is Pretty Good Privacy.
显然，这是非常好的隐私保护。
And obviously, it's very good privacy.
不只是相当好的隐私，而是不可思议的隐私。
It's not just pretty good privacy, it's incredible privacy.
这是无法破解的隐私，因为把非常大的合数分解成质数非常困难，而Pretty Good Privacy实际上非常好。
It's unbreakable privacy because it's very hard to factor very large composite numbers into their primes, and Pretty Good Privacy is actually very good.
所以这就是Very Good Security这个名字的由来。
So that was kind of the original name for Very Good Security.
所以我很久以前主导了这笔投资。
So I led this investment a long time ago.
TrialPay被Visa收购了。
TrialPay got bought by Visa.
Visa在你的领导下投资了VGS，现在你又回来了，担任首席战略官，和我一起在VGS董事会。
Visa, under your leadership, invested in VGS, and now you're back, and you're the chief strategy officer and board member alongside me at VGS.
是的。
Yep.
这是一段非常有趣且不可思议的旅程，我觉得看看今天的VGS，它是一家支付基础设施公司。
It's been a very fun and incredible journey, and I think if you look at VGS today, it's a payment infrastructure business.
我们保护了大约三分之一电商交易额（GMV）的凭证安全，我们拥有最大的在线商家、最大的新型银行，还有最大的前沿实验室，他们都用VGS来保护支付凭证。
We secure credentials for about a third of all e-commerce by GMV, and we have the largest online merchants, we have the largest neobanks, and the largest frontier labs all use VGS to secure payment credentials.
我觉得今天，我们想讨论代理商务的部分原因是因为VGS参与了帮助代理获取这些凭证，帮助钱包将这些凭证交给代理，也交给需要接收这些凭证的商家。
And I think today, part of the reason why we want to talk about agentic commerce is because VGS is involved in helping agents get those credentials, helping wallets hand those credentials to agents, and also to merchants who have to receive these credentials.
所以我们正处于这些关于凭证的非常有趣的对话和交接之中。
And so we're sort of in the middle of these really interesting conversations and handovers between credentials.
但也许我们应该深入探讨一下凭证到底是什么。
But maybe we should dig into what a credential is.
对普通人来说，凭证其实就是信用卡的另一种说法。
Credential is a fancy way of saying a credit card for laypeople.
但如果你深入研究，事情就没那么简单了。
It gets a little more complicated than that when you really dig into it.
你合作的那些商家，我不太清楚哪些可以提。
But you work with, I don't know which merchants I'm allowed to say that you work with.
你合作的都是大商家，不如我们拿一个你在AI和智能体商务出现之前合作过的商家来举例，解释一下你们具体做什么。
You work with all the big ones, but why don't we take an example merchant that you worked with kind of pre-AI, pre-agentic commerce, and just explain what you do.
他们为什么用VGS，你们帮他们做什么，这个应用有多普遍？
Why do they use VGS, what do they use you for, and how pervasive is it?
假设我们和一个非常大的在线订餐平台合作。
Let's assume we're working with a very large online ordering platform.
那么每当有新客户在该平台注册并提交信用卡时，这家公司实际上都必须存储你的信用卡信息。
And so that company effectively has to store your credit card every time that a new customer comes onto that site and hands over a credit card.
这家公司其实并不想直接接触那些卡号。
That company doesn't necessarily want to be exposed to that card number.
所以VGS就负责捕获这张卡，安全地保管它，并存储起来。
And so VGS is involved in capturing that card, securely vaulting it, and storing it.
每当在线订购服务想要与它的某个处理商进行交易时，它就会去保险库取回信息，这样在线订购公司就根本不需要接触支付信息。
And every time that the online ordering service wants to transact with one of its processors, it goes to the vault and retrieves the information in such a way that the online ordering company never actually has to touch the payment information.
现在，我觉得自从你最初投资以来，VGS变得更有趣的一点是，它已经成为了最受信任的在线保险库，这已经十年了，而且卡组织也引入了某种形式的令牌化，所以在我们TrialPay的时代，我们实际上会存储16位的PAN，然后加密它。
Now, one of the things that I think has made VGS a lot more interesting since the days that you first invested, it's been a decade of becoming sort of the most trusted vault online, is that the card networks have also introduced a form of tokenization, so that in our days back in TrialPay, we would actually store a 16-digit PAN, and we would encrypt it.
PAN是主账户号码。
PAN is a primary account number.
PAN就是主账户号码。
A PAN is a primary account number.
信用卡号。
Credit card number.
就是卡上的那16位数字。
It's the 16-digit number that you have on your card.
我们会加密并保管它。
We would encrypt it and vault it.
然后到了要扣款的时候，我们可能会解密它，然后交给——我记得那时候是交给Chase Payment Tech。
And then when it came time to charge someone, we might unencrypt it and give it to, I think, Chase Payment Tech back in those days.
现在不是这样了。
Today, that doesn't happen.
现在的情况是，我们不再存储那16位卡号并使用它，而是去找发卡的网络，比如Visa、MasterCard、Amex、Discover，然后说：“我想要这个卡的另一个版本，这个版本只绑定在我的商户域里。”这样更安全，因为万一出了问题，我手里的这个号码只在我的商户域里有效。
Today, instead, what happens is rather than store that 16-digit card number and use that, you actually go to the network that issued it, so Visa, MasterCard, Amex, Discover, and you say, "I would like another version of this card that's actually domain-bound just to my merchant domain," which is safer because if there's ever a problem, the only number that I have only works on my merchant domain.
我会用这个号码发给Chase Payment Tech。
And I am going to use this when I send it to Chase Payment Tech.
所以VGS作为一家公司，代表商户保管所有这些凭证，同时也获取所有的网络令牌，这是这些凭证传递给支付处理商和网络的主要方式。
So VGS, as a company, vaults all these credentials on behalf of the merchant, also gets all of the network tokens, which is the primary way that these credentials are passed to the payment processor and to the network.
这就是我们现在做的事情。
And that's what we do today.
正因为与卡网络交互以及跨多个处理商操作的复杂性……
And so because of that complexity of interacting with the card networks and doing this across multiple processors...
所以，亚历克斯，我有个问题想问你。
So actually, here's a question for you, Alex.
如果你是一个年交易额超过十亿美元的商家，你后端会有多少个支付处理商？
If you're a merchant with over a billion dollars in GMV, how many payment processors do you have on the back end?
嗯，这要看情况。
Well, it depends.
有很多商家只用一家，但你最好——但这正好说到VGS的用途——
So there are plenty that just have one, but you are better-- But this goes to the use case of VGS-
也就是说，与其被绑定在一家支付处理商上，你更愿意拆分开来，能够自由选择用哪家支付处理商。
... which is rather than being locked into one payment processor, you'd rather unbundle that, and you'd rather be able to pick and choose which payment processor you use.
而且，如果你有一个共享的基础设施来存储凭证，那万一某个凭证出问题了呢？
But also, if you have kind of a shared infrastructure that is storing credentials, what if one credential goes bad?
我刚刚就有一张Capital One的卡。
I just had a Capital One card.
好例子。
Great example.
Capital One收购了Discover Card。
Capital One bought Discover Card.
对。
Yep.
或者说是Discover网络。
Or Discover Network.
然后我那张漂亮的Capital One返现1.5%的Visa卡，就变成了Discover卡。
And then my fancy Capital One cashback rewards 1.5% Visa card, it became a Discover card.
每周我都会收到很多商家发来的通知，他们很无奈地说：“我们无法处理您的卡。”
And every week, I get notifications from very sad merchants, "We are unable to process your card."
为什么他们处理不了我的卡呢？
Why are they unable to process my card?
因为那张旧卡号已经不存在了。
Because that old card number doesn't exist anymore.
虽然我和Capital One还有关系，但我从他们那里拿到了一个新卡号。
Even though I still have a relationship with Capital One, I just got a new card number from them.
确实，这有点复杂。
Granted, it's a little bit complicated.
它现在用的是新网络。
It's on a new network.
还有一种可能，商家不能直接说：“哦，我们知道这张卡变成了那张卡。”
There's also the possibility, merchants can't just say, "Oh, we know that this card became that card."
单个商家做不到这一点。
One merchant cannot do that.
但大型的数据库可以做到。
But a large vault can do that.
而且，像Visa、万事达，还有Discover，这些网络本身也有账户更新工具。
And then as the actual networks themselves, like Visa and Mastercard, and actually Discover too, they have these account updating tools.
所以你可以说：“嘿，我是商家。
So you could say, "Hey, I'm a merchant.
我手上有所有这些卡号。”
I have all of these card numbers."
然后我想，那是什么呢？
And I think, what is it?
每年有10%的卡会过期吗？
Every year, 10% of cards expire?
所以每年大约有三分之一的卡会被更换。
So about a third of all cards get turned over every single year.
不，甚至更多。
No, even more.
从数学上讲，大约是25%，因为卡的有效期是四年。
Like 25% mathematically, because it's a four-year expiration.
另外还有5%是因为，比如Capital One收购Discover，或者欺诈，或者其他原因。
And another 5% due to, in this case, Capital One buying Discover or fraud or something else.
所以回到那个问题。
So back to that question.
顺便说一下，对于一个十亿美元的商户来说，他们通常会有三到五个处理商。
By the way, for a merchant of a billion dollars, it's about three to five processors that merchant will have.
所以现在——
So now-
他们不需要这样做。
They don't have to.
他们不需要这样做。
They don't have to.
但重点是，他们应该这样做。
But they should is the point.
不，不。那是我们看到的平均水平——
No, no. That is the average that we see-
……在整个生态系统中。
... across the ecosystem.
但他们这样做是有原因的，因为不同的成本、不同的批准率、不同的地区，你想要分片——
But there's a reason for them to do that, because different costs, different approval rates, different regions, you want to shard-
对。
Correct
……用计算机科学的术语来说。
... in kind of computer science terms.
你手里有所有的卡，如果你只是说“我每次都使用同一个处理器”，那可不是个好主意，或者说不如我可以用多个处理器那么好。
You have all of your cards, and if you just say, "I use the same processor every single time," that's just not a good idea, or it's not as good of an idea as I can have multiple processors.
但要做到这一点，我必须能够安全地把卡号发送给我选择的处理器。
But in order to do that, I have to be able to securely send the card number to the processor that I've chosen.
对，没错。
Yeah, that's right.
而且实际上，一旦你有了多个处理器，保管和更新卡号的工作量就会乘以处理器的数量。
And in fact, once you have multiple processors, then the job of vaulting and getting updates is multiplied by the number of processors.
所以，作为商家，我可能有1亿张卡，但我得在Chase存1亿张，在Stripe存1亿张，在Braintree存1亿张，而且每个这些保管库都得在他们的网络里更新。
So maybe I have 100 million cards as a merchant, but I have to store 100 million with Chase and 100 million with Stripe and 100 million with Braintree, and each of those vaults have to be updated at their networks.
所以VGS所做的就是充当一个独立的保管库，为商家提供中立的保管和更新基础设施，这样商家就可以通过Stripe把Visa令牌发送给商家。
And so what VGS does is serve as an independent vault, neutral infrastructure on behalf of the merchants for the vaulting and the updates, such that the merchant can then send a Visa token to the merchant via Stripe.
回到你那个烦人的Capital One问题。
Back to your kind of annoying Capital One issue.
如果你是VGS的商家，那就不应该发生。
If you're a VGS merchant, that should not happen.
所以当Capital One从Visa切换到Discover时，是有机制来获取这些更新的，当然如果出现欺诈或其他情况也是如此，而这就是VGS所扮演的角色。
So there are mechanisms when Capital One is switching from Visa to Discover to get those updates, and certainly that's the case if there's fraud or something else, and that's the role that VGS is playing.
对，没错。
Yep, exactly.
所以希望大家现在对Very Good Security是做什么的有了很好的了解。
So hopefully everybody has a good understanding now of what Very Good Security does.
VGS就是做这个的。
VGS does.
所以突然之间，这业务几年前还挺好的。
So out of nowhere, and this was a good business years ago.
我一直很看好这个，然后突然出现了所谓的代理商务。
I've been a believer for a long time, and then this whole thing called agentic commerce showed up.
我想，世界会怎么变呢？
I guess, how does the world change?
而你们正处于这个变革的中心，因为，再说一次，我不知道哪些跟你们合作的公司我可以提，但可以说很多AI公司都决定跟VGS合作了。
And you guys are at the center of this because, again, I don't know what companies that work with you I'm allowed to say or not, but let's just say a lot of AI companies have decided to work with VGS.
那是什么原因呢？
And for what reason?
原因就是，如果我说“嘿，给我买束花”，我打开我的聊天工具说“嘿，我想给我妻子买束花。”
Well, the reason is if I say, "Hey, buy me flowers," if I go into my little chat tool and say, "Hey, I'd like to buy flowers for my wife.
今天是母亲节。
It's Mother's Day.
如果我不买，她会生气；如果我买了，她会高兴。
She'll get mad at me if I don't buy them, and she'll be happy if I do buy them.
请帮我买吧。”我不想把我的信用卡……也许我确实想把我的信用卡号给那个聊天应用，但他们不想保存它。
Please buy them," I don't want to give my credit card... Maybe I do want to give my credit card number to, we'll call it Chat App, but they don't want to store it.
而且即使他们保存了，他们也得把它传给商家。
And then even if they do store it, they have to communicate it to the merchant.
那他们怎么传呢？
And how do they do that?
更好的办法是有一个第三方，他们知道怎么处理这件事。
And the better option is you have a third party that already knows how to do this.
所以这就把范围缩小了。
So you take out of scope.
这挺有意思的。
It's interesting.
我不知道我们大多数听众是否了解PCI DSS规则，但那是支付卡倡议数字安全系统，如果我没记错的话。
I don't know if most of our audience knows what the PCI DSS rules are, but that's the Payment Card Initiative Digital Security System, if I remember correctly.
说得很好，亚历克斯。
Very good, Alex.
我说对了吗？
Did I get that right?
对。
Yes.
所以如果你听说过PCI合规，那意味着，如果你要成为商户并接受信用卡，有一份文件，我记得上次看的时候，超过100页，列出了所有你必须遵守并维持的规则，才能保持PCI合规。
So if you've heard of PCI compliance, that says, well, if you're going to be a merchant and you accept credit cards, there is a document, I think last time I read it, it was over 100 pages, of all of the rules that you have to do and maintain in order to be PCI compliant.
为什么保持PCI合规非常重要呢？
And why is being PCI compliant very important?
因为每家银行都要求这样。
Because every bank demands it.
不满足PCI合规要求，你就没法处理信用卡交易。
You cannot process credit cards unless you are PCI compliant.
不满足PCI合规要求，你也别想发行信用卡。
You cannot issue credit cards unless you are PCI compliant.
所以这就是支付卡行业标准的意义所在。
That's why it's this payment card initiative.
Visa和万事达可能是竞争对手，但在这一点上他们意见一致。
Visa and Mastercard might be enemies, but on this they agree.
你必须做到PCI合规。
You have to be PCI compliant.
VGS的一个好处就是让你不用再操心PCI合规的事。
One of the nice things that VGS takes PCI compliance out of scope.
所以基本上你可以说，'我就能像普通企业一样正常经营了。
So you basically say, "I can just run my business like a normal business.
我就不用遵守那一百页的规则了。
I don't have to follow these 100 pages of rules."
VGS就专门负责这一块。
VGS just focuses on that.
这又回到了那个话题，我想给我亲爱的妻子买花，我想让我的聊天应用帮我做这件事。
Which kind of goes back to, I want to buy flowers for my beloved wife, and I want to have my chat application do that for me.
结果发现，VGS作为后端基础设施，在这方面很有优势，但现在它还能扮演一个——
Turns out VGS is pretty well-positioned here just by being the backend infrastructure, but now can take a-
……在整个过程中扮演一个非常关键的角色。
... pretty vital role in this whole process.
我觉得在过去三个月里，我们经历了一个巨大的飞跃，智能体从所谓的旁观者变成了行动者。
I think in the last three months, we've had this huge leap from agents being what I would call spectators to agents being actors.
那它们怎么代表我行动呢？
And how do they act on my behalf?
嗯，如果你以一种安全的方式给它们支付凭证——
Well, if you give them a payment credential in a safe way-
……
...
我不仅能帮你推荐给你妻子买什么花，还能直接帮你把花买了。
I can go from recommending the flowers for your wife to buying the flowers for your wife.
我给你举个例子。
So I'll give you an example.
就在昨晚，我和我妻子一直在商量给我们七岁的儿子找个钢琴老师，这事儿挺麻烦的，因为得考虑我们的日程安排，他每周有三天要踢足球，而且我们希望老师能上门教。
Just last night, my wife and I have been talking about getting a piano teacher for our seven-year-old son, and it's complicated because you have to know our schedule, and he has soccer three days a week, and we want someone who can come to the house.
我们还得知道钢琴老师的时间安排。
We have to know the schedule of the piano teacher.
我之前问过ChatGPT这个问题，得到了一些推荐。
And I asked ChatGPT about this a while ago, and I got some recommendations.
但就在昨晚，我问了一个智能体，它把整个交易流程都替我搞定了。
But just last night, I asked an agent, and it did the entire transaction task for me.
它找到了一堆人选，问了我几个问题，核对了时间表，然后直接预约了第一节课的老师。
It found a bunch of people, asked me a few questions, checked the schedule, and booked someone for the very first lesson.
所以这比把又一个任务丢给我要有用得多。
So that is infinitely more useful than dumping yet another task on my doorstep.
所以，智能体突然变得更有帮助、更有用了，因为它们实际上有了手和脚，也就是支付凭证。
So agents have all of a sudden become significantly more helpful and useful because they effectively have arms and legs, which are payment credentials.
随着Muse、Instinct、Town以及其他AI智能体的兴起，一旦它们能访问支付凭证，它们的实用性就大大增加了。
And so what's happened with the rise of Muse and Instinct, and Town, and other AI agents is once they have access to payment credentials, their utility increases.
所以我们算是开启了我所说的“钱包大战”，现在每个钱包都在急着连接智能体。
And so we sort of have kicked off what I kind of call the wallet wars, where every wallet is now rushing to connect to the agents.
当然，作为智能体，我希望钱包具备两个特点。
And of course, as an agent, I want a wallet that has sort of two things.
第一，拥有最多已经在那个钱包里有凭证的消费者；第二，钱包要有非常广泛的商户覆盖。
One, the most number of consumers that already have a credential at that wallet, and a wallet that has a very broad merchant reach.
现在，像Stripe Link这样的公司就是这样的。
And so right now, this is companies like Stripe Link.
他们大约有3亿消费者在Link上有账户。
They have about 300 million consumers who have an accounted Link.
大约有一百万商家使用Link。
About a million merchants use Link.
还有Shopify的Shop Pay，用户规模差不多，但商家可能更多，大概有170万。
You have Shopify with Shop Pay, similar-ish consumer size, probably more like 1.7 million merchants.
然后是PayPal，它有超过4亿个账户，具体数字要看怎么统计。
Then you have PayPal, which has got over 400 million accounts, depends on how that's actually measured.
但它的商家数量大概有3000万。
But they have on the order of 30 million merchants.
所以这些钱包都在连接智能体，我觉得这确实提供了更多便利。
So these wallets are connecting to the agents, and I think are providing a lot more utility.
不过有意思的是，钱包大战其实已经存在一段时间了。
So it's interesting, though, because wallet wars have been around for a while.
还记得吗，不是要说我们老东家的坏话，但你还记得V.me吗？
So remember, not to speak ill of our old employer, remember V.me?
记得。
Yes.
V.me。
V.me.
V.me。
V.me.
但在这之前还有别的东西。
But it was something before that.
我忘了。
I forgot.
他们改名叫V.me了。
They changed the name to V.me.
但之前有过很多尝试。
But there have been many attempts.
为什么10年或15年前会有钱包大战？
Why were there wallet wars 10 or 15 years ago?
因为事实证明，成为消费者默认的存储凭证，如果能像巴甫洛夫条件反射那样训练我，比如“哦，我看到花，我就用PayPal”，那对PayPal来说就更好。
Because it turns out that being the default stored credential for a consumer, if I can get trained in a Pavlovian way where it's like, "Oh, I see flowers, I use PayPal," well, PayPal is better off for that.
没错。
That's correct.
或者我们在TrialPay做的其中一件事就是，Visa怎么——这对Visa非常有利。
Or one of the things that we worked on at TrialPay was how does a Visa-- It's very good for Visa.
这对Visa的发卡银行非常有利，如果你的Uber钱包里默认卡是Visa，因为Uber本身也是一个钱包。
It's very good for Visa's issuing banks if the default card in your Uber wallet, because Uber is a wallet, too.
你可以在Uber里存八张不同的卡或凭证。
You can store eight different cards or credentials within Uber.
成为钱包里的首选卡非常重要，因为当数字钱包出现时，我倾向于认为在数字钱包之前，你用的是我所说的“死牛钱包”，就是那种实体的——
Being the top of wallet is very, very important because when digital wallets came out, I kind of like to think before digital wallets, you had what I like to call dead cow wallets, an actual-
对。
Yes
……
...
我觉得我这里就有一个。
I think I have one here.
给我们的观众演示一下。
Give a demo to our audience.
这个就叫做死牛钱包。
This is called a dead cow wallet.
里面装了很多卡。
Has lots of credentials in there.
但在Capital One花钱请塞缪尔·杰克逊说“你的钱包里有什么？”之前。
But before Capital One would pay Samuel L. Jackson to say, "What's in your wallet?"
他们为什么要这么做？
Why would they do that?
因为当你去Chipotle的时候，他们希望你掏出你的死牛钱包，说“我要用我的Capital One卡付款。”
Because when you go to Chipotle, they want you to pull out your dead cow wallet and say, "I'm going to pay with my Capital One card."
而数字钱包出现后，就像Shop Pay、PayPal，它们都想成为你的默认支付方式。
Whereas when digital wallets emerged, it's like, I'm Shop Pay, I'm PayPal, I want to be your default.
然后有趣的是，在那个钱包里还有其他卡，它们也在争着当第一。
And then actually, what the interesting thing is within that wallet, there were other credentials, and those guys were competing to be the number one.
比如说，如果——
Like if-
如果你还记得在Visa的时候，我们跟Uber和Airbnb打交道，发行方——也就是Chase和Amex——支付了数千万美元，就是为了让他们的卡在这些平台上被优先使用。
If you recall at Visa, when we were dealing with Uber and Airbnb, there was tens of millions of dollars paid by the issuers, so Chase and Amex, to prefer their cards on those platforms.
所以那是一场战争，就是“这是我的卡”。
So that's one war, which is like, this is my card.
我想把它推到钱包的最上面。
I want to sort of promote this to the top of wallet.
你说的是真正的网络战争，Visa和我们帮Visa成为Uber的默认卡。
You're talking about the actual network war where Visa and we helped Visa become a default card at Uber.
现在又有了另一层，一个抽象层，就是“我是一个处理交易的钱包”，比如Shop Pay、Link和PayPal。
And now you have this other layer, this abstraction layer of I am a wallet that actually processes the transaction, the Shop Pays, the Links, and the PayPals.
所以我们之前聊过，结账页面看起来有点像NASCAR赛车，因为你有——
And so we talked about how a checkout looks a bit like NASCAR because you have-
……多个不同的按钮。
... multiple different buttons.
用PayPal支付，用Google Check支付。
Pay with PayPal, pay with Google Check.
记得Google Checkout是和……一起出来的。
Remember Google Checkout came out along-
Google Checkout，对。
Google Checkout, yeah.
但是有消费者钱包，也有商家钱包。
But there are consumer wallets, and then there are merchant.
因为有趣的是，我觉得VGS在某种程度上算是一种商家钱包。
Because the interesting thing is that I kind of think of VGS as a merchant wallet to an extent.
这个比喻有点奇怪……
It's a strange metaphor to use-
……因为商家不是付钱的一方。
... because a merchant isn't paying for things.
商家是收钱的一方。
A merchant is receiving payments.
但是一旦我收到付款，我该把它放在哪里呢，尤其是如果我要一次又一次地向这个客户收费？
But once I receive the payment, where do I put it, especially if I'm billing this customer again and again and again?
而且，出于PCI合规等原因，我不想把写着那个秘密三位数的纸条存起来，那个数字当然并不秘密，因为它就在卡背面，但我需要它来处理交易。
And again, for PCI reasons and whatnot, I don't want to store scraps of paper with that secret three-digit code that, of course, is not secret because it's on the back of your card, but I need it to process it.
我不想把你的16位卡号记下来，然后放在我原来的收银机里的碎纸片上。
I don't want to store your 16-digit credential and just keep it in scraps of paper in my original cash register.
我需要有个东西替我去接收这些信息。
I need something to go receive that for me.
从消费者角度来看，就像我不想记住一样。
On the consumer side, it's like I don't want to remember.
消费者钱包最初的用途是什么？
What was the original purpose of a consumer wallet?
就是凌晨两点，我想给妻子买花。
It's that it's 2:00 in the morning, I want to buy flowers for my wife.
我的钱包在楼下。
My wallet's downstairs.
我不知道我的钱包在哪儿。
I don't know where my wallet is.
我现在就想在1-800-FLOWERS上付款，如果我输入我的PayPal账号，它就像一个包装，关联了我那个破钱包里的所有支付信息。
I want to go pay on 1-800-FLOWERS right now, and if I just enter my PayPal credentials, they were a wrapper and linked to all the credentials in my dead cow wallet.
这就是当时的目的。
That was the purpose back then.
但我觉得有意思的是，所有的智能体商务其实也是同样的道理。
But what I find interesting with all of agentic commerce is it's kind of the same thing.
还是凌晨两点。
It's still 2:00 in the morning.
你还是想给你妻子买花，可能是因为你做了错事，或者母亲节什么的。
You still want to buy flowers for your wife for something bad that you did, or Mother's Day or whatever.
是好事，亚历克斯。
Something good, Alex.
对，是好事，对吧？
Something good, right?
任何时候都适合买花。
Always time to buy flowers.
我们由1-800-Flowers赞助，所以记得去那里买。
We're sponsored by 1-800-Flowers, so make sure to buy there.
所以你想去买，但你的代理没有权限。
So you want to go buy, and your agent doesn't have access.
这是同样的问题，对吧？
It's the same problem, right?
就像代理可能会说：“嘿，Terry，你的信用卡号是多少？”
It's like the agent could say, "Hey, Terry, where is your credit card number?"
这反而增加了麻烦和摩擦，而不是直接访问它——
And that's more work and more friction versus it has access to it-
就像15年前你手动操作时，把所有的卡和银行账户都授权给PayPal来减少摩擦一样。
... in the same way that you just gave access to all of your cards, all of your bank accounts to PayPal to reduce the friction when you were doing things manually 15 years ago.
而且我觉得“钱包”这个词有点被滥用了。
And look, I think the word wallet is a bit overused.
其实它有不同的版本。
There's sort of different versions of it.
一种是你的实体钱包的数字化版本，就是只存储支付凭证。
One is the digital version of your dead cow wallet, which is that it just stores the payment credential.
当你去商家那里时，你把那个凭证交给商家。
And when you go to a merchant, you hand that credential to the merchant.
对吧？
All right?
这有点像Apple Pay的做法，对吧？
That's kind of what Apple Pay does, right?
当我在商店用Apple Pay购物时，Apple实际上是把我的Capital One Visa卡，以令牌化的形式存在钱包里，然后交给商家。
When I shop at a store with Apple Pay, Apple is effectively giving my Capital One Visa card, effectively tokenized in the wallet, to the merchant.
商家收到这个凭证，然后决定是通过Chase、Adyen、Stripe还是Braintree来处理。
The merchant receives this credential, and it decides whether it processes it through Chase or Adyen or Stripe or Braintree.
然后还有那种钱包，它们会帮你处理整个交易。
Then you have wallets that actually take care of the transaction for you.
所以想想Shop Pay、Link或者PayPal，这些钱包实际上是在跟我交易，从我这里收钱，然后把钱转给商家。
So think about Shop Pay or Link or PayPal, where the wallet is, in fact, transacting with me, collecting the money from me, and remitting that back to the merchant.
而智能体商务正在发生的是，我们正在看到这两者的融合。
And what's happening with agentic commerce is we're sort of getting this sort of blend of the two.
而且这是一个全新的生态系统，对我来说，它让我想起了互联网的早期。
And it's such a new ecosystem that it actually has parallels for me back to the early days of the internet.
对于那些经历过AOL时代的人来说，Stripe在很多方面就像是智能体商务的AOL。
And, for those people who were around in the sort of AOL era, Stripe, in many ways, is like the AOL of agentic commerce.
我这么说是一种赞美，因为他们已经找到了让智能体商务顺畅运作的方法，而且是一种非常封闭花园式的做法。
And I mean that as a compliment in the sense that they've figured out how to make agentic commerce just work in a way that's a very kind of walled garden approach.
所以，举几个例子，如果我使用Stripe Link，Link只在百万家商户那里可用。
So, a few examples here would be, if I use Stripe Link, Link's only available at a million merchants.
所以，如果我想要的东西恰好在那百万家商户中的一家有卖，那就太好了。
So it's great if, in fact, the item that I want is available at one of those million merchants.
但很多时候，我想要的东西在一些没有Stripe Link连接的商家那里也有卖。
But very often it's available at some place where there isn't a Stripe Link connection.
举个例子，大概两周前，我在家里办了个活动。
So a good example was, I think two weeks ago, I had this event at my house.
我想买一些户外灯，就让Instinct帮我去找，结果它在沃尔玛找到了，这很合理。
I wanted to buy some outdoor lights, and I asked Instinct to go and help me find these lights, and it found the lights at Walmart, which makes a ton of sense.
沃尔玛的库存很丰富。
Walmart has lots of inventory.
然后那个代理就把灯加进了购物车，但到了付款的时候，Link跟沃尔玛没有连接。
And the agent went, loaded the cart, and when it came time to pay, Link didn't have a connection to Walmart.
Link有我的卡，但它不能直接把我的卡信息给代理，再给沃尔玛。
Link has my card, but it can't just give my card over to the agent and over to Walmart.
所以Stripe做了一件挺有意思的事。
So Stripe did something pretty interesting.
他们替我买了那些灯。
They purchased the chandeliers on my behalf.
他们自己发了一张虚拟卡，实际上是Visa的一次性卡，完成了购买，然后又单独向我收费，Terry。
They issued their own, actually, this is like a Visa virtual card, one-time use card, made the purchase, and then they charged me, Terry, at a second transaction.
这有点像现在DoorDash的运作方式。
This is a little bit how DoorDash works today.
你在DoorDash上花一百美元，然后外卖员去……
You spend 100 bucks at DoorDash, and then the Dasher goes and-
……付钱给餐厅。
... pays the restaurant.
但就这次沃尔玛的交易来说，这正好说明了它有点像AOL那种情况，一切都很顺利。
But in the case of this Walmart transaction, this is the point about it sort of being the AOL, it worked just great.
实际上，商品送到了，交易也完成了，扣款金额也正确。
Actually, the item showed up, the transaction went through, I was charged the right amount.
但如果这个吊灯有问题，通常我会打电话给我的银行，也就是Capital One，然后说：“嘿，我在沃尔玛有一笔交易。”
But if there's a problem with the chandelier, typically, I call up my bank, Capital One, and I say, "Hey, I had this transaction with Walmart."
“出了点问题。”
"Something went wrong."
然后他们会说：“嗯，我们这里没有看到沃尔玛的交易。”
And they say, "Well, we don't see a Walmart transaction here."
我们看到的是Stripe的交易。
We see a Stripe transaction.
我们只看到Stripe的交易。
We just see a Stripe transaction.
其实你会发现这挺搞笑的。
And in fact, you will find this pretty funny.
我认识一个人，在测试阶段，就用他们的美国运通卡走了这个流程，然后打电话给运通说，'嘿，这笔和商家的交易没成功'，但运通只看到了Stripe。
I know someone who, in the sort of testing phase, did this exact flow on their Amex card, called up Amex and said, "Hey, this transaction with the merchant didn't go through," but Amex only saw Stripe.
所以运通给了他们一个电话号码，让他们联系那个Link商家。
So they gave them a phone number to call whoever this Link merchant is.
那个人打了过去，结果直接接通了一个Stripe工程师的手机，因为Stripe并没有设立...
The person called them, it went straight to the cellphone of a Stripe engineer because Stripe's not set up-
...处理退款投诉的客服中心。
... to run a chargeback sort of call center.
嗯，这就是为什么Visa和万事达的地位如此稳固的主要原因之一，因为他们中介了所有交易并制定了规则，而退款投诉非常重要。
Well, this is the main, one of the reasons why Visa and Mastercard have such impregnable positions is because they intermediate everything and they set the rules, and chargebacks are very important.
如果我付了钱买东西呢？
What if I paid for something?
这是一种信任机制。
It's a trust mechanism.
我付钱给你买东西。
I pay you for something.
我付钱给你买灯。
I pay you for lights.
你没把灯送来。
You don't deliver the lights.
就像，“哎呀，我没钱了。”
Like, "Oh, shoot, I don't have money anymore.
我该怎么办？”
What do I do?"
不，其实你有规则可以让我提出投诉。
No, you actually have rules by which I can kind of lodge a complaint.
然后有一个中央中介机构来帮助裁决这些投诉，这种方式大体上是公平的，双方都认可。
And then there is a central intermediary that helps adjudicate those complaints in a way that is more or less fair, that both parties agree on.
这本身就是问题的一部分。
It is part of the problem.
这就是为什么加密货币很酷，但它是一种不记名工具。
This is why crypto, cool, but it's a bearer instrument.
我用加密货币付给你钱。
I pay you with crypto.
那钱我就再也拿不回来了。
I'm never getting that back.
这又可能是个缺陷，也可能是个优点，但回到你那个灯的例子，如果灯不亮怎么办？
Which, again, can be a bug or a feature feature, but for your lights example, what if the lights don't work?
你希望中间有Visa和万事达卡。
You want to have Visa and Mastercard in the middle.
这其实对商家也很有用，因为现在我更愿意跟商家买东西，因为我知道如果他们不交付能用的产品，我可以拿回我的钱。
That's high utility, actually, even for the merchant, because now I'm much more willing to buy with a merchant knowing that if they don't actually deliver a product that works, I can get my money back.
所以这种信任机制非常重要。
So that trust mechanism is very important.
但话说回来，如果你加上所有这些有趣又聪明的工程步骤，目的反而达不到，效果就没那么好了。
But again, if you add all these kind of interesting and very clever engineering steps, the purpose, it doesn't work as well.
所以实际上，我觉得从AOL生态系统走向开放标准生态系统，这才是正确的方向。
So in fact, this is, I think, the right sort of direction of travel from the AOL ecosystem to the open standards ecosystem.
信用卡网络其实已经推出了一种新的标准。
The card networks have actually come out with a new type of standard.
它们叫做代理令牌，可以让像Stripe Link、Shop Pay或PayPal这样的钱包，安全地把凭证交给代理，然后代理再把它交给商家，这样当沃尔玛那笔交易发生时，用的就是我的卡。
They're called agentic tokens that will allow a wallet, like a Stripe Link or a Shop Pay or a PayPal, to hand over a credential to the agent in a safe way And then have the agent hand it to the merchant in such a way that when that Walmart transaction occurred, it's my card.
其实关于沃尔玛那笔交易，还有个小插曲，我买了那个吊灯之后，一切都很顺利。
In fact, one sort of addendum to the Walmart transaction, after I bought the chandelier, everything was fine.
我收到沃尔玛的邮件说：“嘿，Terry，你付了运费。”
I got an email from Walmart to say, "Hey, Terry, you paid for delivery."
大概是6.99美元。
It was like $6.99.
“你为什么不注册沃尔玛Plus呢？”
"Why don't you sign up to Walmart Plus?
这里有个优惠。
And here's an offer.
如果你今天注册，我们会把这次配送费抵扣到你的沃尔玛Plus订阅里。”
If you sign up today, we will credit the delivery toward your Walmart Plus subscription."
所以我说：“太好了。”
So I said, "Great."
我点了按钮，结果交易当然失败了，因为他们用的那张卡——
I hit the button, and of course, the transaction failed because the card that they had-
……是Stripe的——
... was the Stripe-
那是一次性使用的
It was a one-time use
……一次性使用的卡。
... one-time use card.
你提到了规则和规范，电子商务的规范之一就是沃尔玛花很多钱来争取我这个客户，然后他们有权尝试和我建立关系，向我推销更多产品，交叉销售。
And you mentioned rules and norms, part of the norms of e-commerce is that Walmart spends a lot of money to get me as a customer, and then they have the right to try to have a relationship with me, upsell me, cross-sell me.
而在这个案例中，因为我们用的是那种AOL版本，他们没法轻松地让我订阅这项新服务。
And in this case, because we were using the sort of AOL version, they weren't able to easily allow me to subscribe to this new service.
按照新的代理标准，应该发生的是，如果任何钱包和商家没有关系，但钱包里有我的卡信息，我的Capital One Visa卡，那么这张卡应该被令牌化，交给代理。
With the new agentic standards, what should happen is if any of the wallets don't have a relationship with the merchant, but they have my card on file, my Capital One Visa card, that should be tokenized with the agent.
有一个完整的流程，代理会说：“我即将进行一笔交易。
There's a whole process by which the agent says, "I'm about to make a transaction.
我是一个经过验证的代理。
I'm a verified agent.
我打算花费不超过100美元。”
I'm going to spend no more than $100."
令牌不过是一个新的16位数字。
The token is nothing more than a new 16-digit number.
我们安全地把它交给代理。
We give that safely to the agent.
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代理把它交给沃尔玛，然后沃尔玛完成交易，但扣的是我的卡。
Agent gives it to Walmart, and then Walmart runs the transaction, but it's my card that is being charged.
这样就能保留后续交易的能力。
And that preserves this ability to have a follow-on transaction.
它也保留了所有关于退款的规则。
It preserves all of the rules around chargebacks.
所以，三个月前，这个数字还是零。
And so, three months ago, this was at zero.
它根本不存在。
It did not exist.
VGS 是这些代理令牌的最大供应商，远远领先于其他公司。
VGS is by far the largest provisioner of these agentic tokens.
我们为代理做，为钱包做，也为一些商家做。
We do it for the agents, we do it for the wallets, we do it for some of the merchants.
而三个月前，这还是零。
And this was zero three months ago.
现在我们每周要处理几百万个这样的令牌。
Now we're doing a few million of these tokens per week.
所以我预计，随着我们从封闭生态转向开放标准，这将成为代理商务发展的方式。
So I expect that as we make this transition from the walled garden to the open standards, this will be the way that agentic commerce evolves.
这也是为什么这个业务很无聊——我是说这是褒义的——VGS的业务为什么无聊呢？
It's one of the reasons why this long, I mean this as a positive, but VGS has a very boring business of why is it boring?
因为我们有一个保险库，任何做保险库业务的人都知道，这不是一个令人兴奋的业务。
Because we have a vault, and anybody who's in a vaulting business, it's not an exciting business.
你的工作就是保持不引人注目，保持安全可靠，就像东西放进保险库，然后偶尔取出来，对吧？
Your job is to be not exciting and be safe and be secure, and it's like things go in the vault, and then every now and then things go out of the vault, right?
它不是单向门。
It's not like a one-way door.
因为我一直认为VGS是这样的：你存储这些凭证，比如15位的美国运通卡号，或者16位的Visa、MasterCard、Discover卡号。
Because the way that I always thought about VGS is, there are these credentials that you store, so it's like you get these 15-digit Amex numbers or 16-digit Visa, MasterCard, Discover numbers.
你存储它们，然后返回一个令牌。
You store them, you give back a token.
这不是加密货币代币。
This is not a crypto token.
这就像，"给你一个可以用的东西。"
This is just like, "Here's something that you can use."
然后这些凭证上可以执行一些操作。
And then there are verbs that can be performed on those credentials.
比如说，我是一家大型汉堡连锁店，或者类似的企业，具体是哪家我们不知道，但你跟一家大型汉堡连锁店合作，对吧？
So if I am a big burger chain or something, hypothetically, we don't know which one, but you work with a big burger chain, right?
我有一个消费者应用，拥有数千万用户。
I have a consumer app that has tens of millions of users.
我知道每当那个用户说，"我想买一个汉堡，"VGS 就扮演关键角色。
I know that whenever that user says, "I want to buy a hamburger," VGS plays a key role.
这个角色很无聊，但我负责取回凭证并扣款。
It's a very boring role, but I retrieve and charge.
我取回凭证是为了把它发送给支付处理器，并说，"现在向 Terry 收取 9 美元，"但我再也不需要碰那个凭证了。
So I retrieve it with the purpose of sending that to a payment processor and saying, "Charge Terry $9 right now," but I never have to touch that credential again.
很无聊的生意，但你们大概见过、碰过或存储了多少比例的银行卡？
Very boring business, but you've gotten to, what percentage of cards do you think you've seen or touch or store?
大概是多少？
It's probably, what is it?
嗯，我们有——
Well, we have-
美国80%的银行卡。
80% of cards in America.
我们有100亿个凭证。
We have 10 billion credentials.
那真是很多凭证。
That's a lot of credentials.
我觉得你提到了一个很有意思的点，就是保险库正在从单玩家变成多玩家，这让它们更有价值。
I think you're touching on something really interesting, which is vaults are going from single-player to multiplayer, and that makes them a lot more valuable.
比如说，先不提代理。
So for example, put aside agents.
商家有多个处理方，这意味着VGS的保险库实际上就是每个处理方的保险库，对吧？
The fact that merchants have multiple processors means that the vault at VGS is effectively the vault for each of those processors, right?
因为存储在保险库里的网络令牌现在必须发送给Chase、Stripe、Adyen、Braintree和Razorpay。
Because the network tokens stored in that vault now have to be sent to Chase, Stripe, Adyen, Braintree, Razorpay.
这就是多玩家模式。
That's multiplayer.
对于代理来说，如果你有一个保险库，假设你是一个大型前沿模型。
With agents, if you have a vault, let's assume you're a large frontier model.
这里有个好例子。
Here's a good example.
你是一个大型前沿模型。
You're a large frontier model.
你存储卡片是为了收取订阅费。
You're vaulting cards in order to charge for your subscription.
但现在代理想用同一个凭证来付款。
But now the agent wants to use that same credential to make a payment.
所以以前这个保险库是单人的。
And so the vault used to be single-player.
以前只是为了确保你能支付订阅费，但现在你可以根据这些开放标准，把这个凭证有效地交给代理。
It used to be just to make sure that you could pay for the subscription, but now you can effectively give that credential according to these open standards to the agent.
现在变成多人的了。
It's now multiplayer.
所以我觉得，任何从单人转向多人的业务，本质上都会变得更有意思。
And so I think any business that is going from single-player to multiplayer inherently becomes more interesting.
就连1Password也是，对吧？
Even 1Password, right?
它以前是个单人的保险库，也许我会和妻子分享一些凭证，但现在它变成多人的了，因为我试图把它——
It used to be a single-player vault, and maybe I share my credentials with my wife on a few things, but now it's multiplayer because I'm trying to give it-
……给多个不同的方访问。
... access to multiple different parties.
嗯，这确实是个很复杂的事情，回到Visa和MasterCard制定的规则和流程，通常一笔交易我觉得差不多有三个步骤。
Well, this is a really complicated thing, going back to the rules and procedures of what Visa and MasterCard have done, which is normally, there are almost three steps to a transaction I think of.
第一，这个身份是真的吗？
Number one is, is this identity real?
对，就是一般来说。
Right, like in general.
这是一个真实的卡号吗？
Is this a real card number?
这很重要。
That's important.
但等等，我可能有一个真实的卡号，而你是小偷，它仍然是真实的卡号。
But wait a minute, I can have a real card number, and you're a thief, it's still a real card number.
所以第二步是，一旦我验证了它，因为实际上有两种验证卡号的方法。
So step two is once I validate it, because actually there are two ways of validating a card number.
有一种是循环校验，对吧？
There's one, there's a cyclicality check, right?
你基本上把那些数字加起来——
You kind of add up the-
校验和。
Checksum.
对，校验和，对吧？
Yeah, checksum, right?
就是信用卡号码的模10校验。
But it's this mod 10 check of the credit card number.
它有效吗？
Is it valid?
但这不代表它是一张真实的卡，只是说明它在有效的卡号范围内。
But that doesn't mean it's a real card, but it means that it's in the valid universe of cards.
但我可以去银行核实，这是不是一张真实存在的卡。
But I can go check with the bank, is this an actual card?
这是第一步。
That's step one.
第二步是，我面前这个人是不是这张卡的合法持有人。
Step two is, is the person that I am interacting with the valid owner of this card?
所以如果你25年前去珠宝店，想买价值15000美元的东西，他们会拿走你的信用卡号，拿走你的信用卡，那张塑料卡片，但他们还会做两件事。
So if you went to a jewelry store 25 years ago and you wanted to buy something for $15,000, they'll take the credit card number, they'll take your credit card, your piece of plastic, but they'll do two things as well.
记得吗，以前你必须在签名栏签字——
Remember, you used to have to sign the signature-
对
That's right
——在卡片的背面。
... of the back of the card.
我记得我见过的第一张完全取消签名的卡是苹果的。
I thought the first card that I ever saw that just got rid of that altogether was Apple.
所以苹果卡，虽然他们希望你用Apple Pay，但如果你拿到那张实体的苹果金属卡，背面根本没有签名的地方。
So the Apple card, even though they want you to use Apple Pay, if you get the physical Apple metal card, there's no place to sign on the back.
完全没有。
None.
但他们还会说：“能看一下你的身份证吗？”
But they would also say, "Can I see your ID?"
我记得有一次我买了很贵的东西，可能是给我妻子的珠宝，我也经常给她买花。
I remember I bought something very expensive one time, might've been jewelry for my wife that I sometimes buy flowers for as well.
那大概是25年前的事了，他们要看我的身份证。
This was probably 25 years ago, and they wanted to see my ID.
他们核对了签名。
They checked the signature.
为什么？
Why?
因为他们知道卡是有效的，但他们想确认我就是卡片的真正主人。
Because they knew that the card was valid, but they want to make sure that I am the actual owner of the card.
然后第三点，你可能只在拉斯维加斯见过，就是问你是否头脑清醒来做这笔交易。
And then number three, and you probably only see this in Vegas, but it's like, are you of sound mind to make this transaction?
所以如果你去拉斯维加斯的赌场，你通过了第一关，卡是有效的。
So if you went to a casino in Vegas, and you pass, number one, card's valid.
第二关，就是，对，这是你的身份证，这是你的签名，完全匹配。
Number two, it's like, yep, here's your ID, here's your signature, it matches entirely.
但还有第三步。
But there's step three.
就是说，如果你喝了15杯酒，连话都说不清楚，他们很可能不会让你付款。
It's like if you've had 15 drinks and you can't even speak properly, they're probably going to not let you pay.
所以这有点像旧时代的情况。
So this was kind of like the old world.
如果你把这个比喻带到新时代，那就是，卡有效吗？
And if you bring that metaphor to the new world, well, it's like, well, is the card valid?
这个人是不是——
Does the person-
或者代理人
Or the agent
……但这就有点棘手了，对吧？
... well, but this is tricky, right?
就是说，卡肯定是有效的。
It's like the card is going to be valid.
这部分——
That part-
……已经解决了。
... solved problem.
但第二部分，问题是，那意味着什么？
But the second part, it's like, what does that mean?
我正在互动的那个人，我的对话者——
Is the person that I am interacting with, is my interlocutor-
……
...
我喜欢这个词，我正在互动的那个人，他们是不是这张卡的合法持有者？
I love that word, is the person that I'm interacting with, are they the valid owner of this card?
在互联网上，这从来都是个难题，因为我没法验证签名、照片，那能说明什么？
It was always a hard problem to figure out on the internet, because I can't, like, signature, picture, what does that mean?
你只是一个IP地址，也许我以前见过你，也检查过你的登录记录。
You're an IP address, and maybe I've seen you before, and I've checked your login.
但现在我有了一个代理，那第三部分从责任角度来看也非常重要，因为你确实会在X等平台上看到一些关于Instinct用户的轶事。
But now I have an agent, and then that part three is pretty important as well from a liability perspective, because you do see these anecdotes on X and whatnot of people that are on Instinct.
他们会说：“你花了900美元是什么意思，你这个白痴？”
They're like, "What do you mean you spent $900, you idiot?"
然后谁——
And who-
……这笔退款是从哪里来的？
... where does the chargeback come from?
所以，这正是这些开放标准要解决的问题。
So, this is exactly what these open standards are solving for.
那我们举个例子，比如我指示我的代理。
So let's take an example where I instruct my agent.
事实上，这是一个真实的例子。
In fact, this is a real example.
我正在为我女儿体操比赛的一次旅行找酒店。
I was looking for a hotel for a trip we're making for my daughter's gymnastics tournament.
我就说，去圣地亚哥找家酒店，别超过500美元。
And I said, "Go and find a hotel in San Diego and don't spend more than $500."
所以，当这个代理被配置好之后，第一个问题，就像你问的，就是：这是不是一张真实的卡？
So the first question when that agent is provisioned is, to your question, is, is this a real card?
这个问题已经解决了。
That's a solved problem.
第二个问题是，代理的请求是不是有效的请求？
The second one is, is the request for the agent a valid request?
这个机制在支付网络里是这样的：代理实际上必须在Visa、万事达或美国运通注册。
And the way that this works with the networks is that agent actually has to be registered with Visa or Mastercard or Amex.
所以这里有一整套机制。
And so there's a whole sort of mechanism there.
第三个问题是，代理是否头脑清醒？
The third question is, is the agent of sound mind?
它有没有做对？
Did it get it right?
然后——
And-
它是不是喝醉了？
Was it drunk?
没错。
Exactly.
它是不是产生了幻觉？
Did it hallucinate?
所以，这部分我觉得我们还没有完全理解，因为如果代理犯了错误，而卡网络做的一切都是对的。
And so, that part I don't think we fully understand yet, because if there's a mistake that the agent makes, and the card network did everything right.
他们验证了这是你的代理和你的指令。
They validated that this is your agent and your instruction.
实际上，这些新标准的一部分工作方式是，你给它提供上下文。
In fact, part of the way these new standards work is you give it context.
你说，"这是一笔酒店预订，金额是这个。"
You say, "This is a hotel reservation at this amount."
我很难知道你填的日期是不是对的。
It's hard for me to know if you got the actual dates right.
如果那里出了错，那这个争议处理机制就有点悬了。
If there's an error there, then that dispute mechanism is sort of unresolved.
但我觉得我们最终会走到那一步，而且很可能代理得承担一些责任。
But I think we will get to that point, and probably the agents will have to take on some responsibility.
嗯，这就是所谓的授权委托的概念。
Well, it's this idea of delegated authority.
但关键是谁来负责？
But it's who is liable?
这怎么变？
How does this change?
可能的情况是，如果有两个代理在争抢你的生意，比如“嘿，Terry，请用我吧，我是Muse”，或者“请用我吧，我是Instinct”。
It might be something where if two agents are competing for your business, like, "Hey, Terry, please use me, I'm Muse," or, "Please use me, I'm Instinct."
我能给你带来的增值点之一是什么？
What is one of the value adds that I'm going to give you?
我会承担——因为如果商家聪明的话，他们不会说，‘我才不管你是不是订错了酒店房间，或者你做了什么。’
I will take on-- Because if the merchants are smart, they're not going to be like, "I don't give a crap that you got the wrong hotel room, or you did this."
就像你给了你的卡。
It's like you gave your card.
你已经把权限委托给了AI代理、你的私人助理、你的妻子，或者随便什么人。
You've delegated authority to either an AI agent or your human assistant or your wife or whatever.
我不在乎。
I don't care.
我需要知道，如果我接受付款，最后不能有任何借口。
I need to know if I'm accepting payments for something, that there's no excuse at the end.
这曾经被称为，懂行的人知道这个词，‘友好欺诈’，以前是这么叫的。
This was called, for those that know this term, friendly fraud, once upon a time.
有这样一个概念，我可以买东西。
There's this concept of, I can buy something.
我们在TrialPay的时候经常看到这种情况。
We used to see this at TrialPay.
好的。
All right.
我花了一万美元买虚拟宝石。
I spent $10,000 on virtual gems.
我和我妻子共用……
My wife and I share the...
其实我没真这么干，先声明一下。
I didn't actually do this, just for disclosure.
但假设我这么做了。
But let's just say I did.
我花了一万美元给某个傻游戏买虚拟宝石。
I spent $10,000 on virtual gems for some stupid game.
月底信用卡账单就来了。
The credit card bill comes due at the end of the month.
我就说：“亲爱的，我从来没花过一万美元在……”
I'm like, "Honey, I never spent $10,000 on...
那不是我干的。
That wasn't me.
我不知道。
I don't know."
然后你拒绝这笔交易，不是因为服务没到位，而是因为这事儿太丢人了。
And you refuse the transaction, not because you didn't get the service that was offered, but because it's so embarrassingly terrible.
商家们经常要处理这种情况。
And merchants had to deal with this all the time.
很多时候，银行会说：“如果是十美元的交易，根本不值得去争。
And in many cases, the banks would say, "Well, if it's a $10 transaction, it's not even worth fighting it.
我们每次都直接退给消费者算了”，这就造成了道德风险。
We'll just give it to the consumer every time," which created moral hazard.
但在这里，委托授权就变得非常棘手了。
But delegated authority gets really tricky here.
也许我可以换个问题问，因为这可能是更重要的问题。
Maybe if I can ask a different question, because this is probably the more important one.
你看到亚马逊最近封了Muse，这背后有很多原因。
You saw that Amazon recently blocked Muse, and there are many reasons for this.
主要是因为亚马逊是一家广告公司，他们希望你和你的注意力都留在他们的网站上。
It's mainly that Amazon is an advertising company, and they want you and your eyeballs going to their website.
他们不想要你的代理，因为你没法从代理的注意力上赚钱，因为代理根本没有眼睛。
They don't want your agent, because you can't monetize an agent's eyeballs because the agent doesn't have eyeballs.
但我觉得，你可以选择对抗代理商务，也可以选择非常欢迎代理商务。
But I kind of think of it as, you can either be antagonistic to agentic commerce, or you can be highly receptive to agentic commerce.
我觉得说所有对抗的人都是守旧派、会被淘汰，这种说法太简单化了。
And I think it's an oversimplification to say anybody who's antagonistic is a Luddite, and they're gone.
其实亚马逊有理由，有实实在在的经济理由去对抗，因为广告对他们来说比单纯卖东西赚钱得多。
It's like, well, Amazon has a reason, a real financial reason, to be antagonistic, because advertising is so much more lucrative for them than just selling things.
最有价值的商品就是吸引你的注意力——
The highest value SKU is when they get your eyeballs-
对
Sure
……然后他们就把你的注意力卖掉了。
... and they sell the eyeballs.
但我想问，你觉得这种情况会怎么发展？
But I guess, how do you think about this kind of playing out?
因为感觉让商家能够接受AI商务的技术，价值非常非常高。
Because it feels like enabling technology for merchants to be receptive to AI commerce is highly, highly, highly valuable.
但顺便说一句，与此同时，帮助那些抵触的商家过滤掉AI商务，也同样价值巨大。
But by the way, at the same time, helping the antagonistic ones Filter out the agentic commerce is also highly valuable.
因为再说一次，有时候他们这么做是有原因的。
Because again, sometimes they have a reason to do that.
但如果我能让ChatGPT这样的服务说“对，你应该在这里买”，并且我让这个过程尽可能简单，那不用说，我可能会比那些设置15个验证码、说“要完成这个操作……”的商家获得多得多的交易。
But if I can make it so that ChatGPT services like, "Yeah, you should buy here," and I make that as simple as possible, it goes without saying, I'm probably going to get a lot more transactions than somebody that inserts 15 CAPTCHAs and says, "In order to proceed with this..."
然后Muse就会说：“嘿，打断你的午睡。
And then Muse is going to say, "Hey, interrupt your nap.
你得去完成这15件事。”
You got to go do these 15 things."
不，你会选择那个对AI商务持开放态度的。
No, you're going to go with the one that is receptive to AI commerce.
我觉得这是智能体商务中最有趣的看点之一，而且我认为我们会看到多种不同的版本。
I think this is one of the most fun fronts to watch in agentic commerce, and I think we're going to get multiple different versions of this.
我们有亚马逊，我觉得它有很多理由去阻止智能体。
We have Amazon, which I think has many reasons to block agents.
就像你说的，他们实际上是在做广告生意。
As you said, they're effectively in the advertising business.
还有沃尔玛，目前情况很相似，但还没有迈出那一步。
You have Walmart, which is very similar right now, hasn't taken that step.
事实上，你可能会说，如果你是地球上最大的零售商之一，拥有最好的最后一公里配送，那么这一切对你来说都是好事。
And in fact, you might argue that if you are one of the largest retailers on Earth with the best last-mile delivery, that this is all good for you.
然后还有一批在Shopify旗下的商家，其中很多是小企业，对他们来说，这很可能是一个新的重要渠道。
And then you have the series of merchants that are under the Shopify umbrella, which are a lot of small businesses that really, this is probably a new vital channel.
所以，亚马逊那边可能是恐惧，沃尔玛那边可能是贪婪，而中小企业那边可能是别无选择。
So maybe there's fear on the Amazon side, maybe there's greed on the Walmart side, and maybe there's no choice on the SMB side.
这些商家，或者说这些参与者，都会去尝试怎么跟这些代理打交道。
And each of these actors, or each of these merchants, are going to experiment with how they deal with agents.
我觉得这让我想起了一点，虽然我们看法不太一样，就是开放银行的推广方式——作为亚马逊的客户，我有没有权利把我的登录信息委托给一个代理？
I think this reminds me a little bit, I know we have a different view on this, of how open banking was rolled out, which is, do I have the right as an Amazon customer to delegate my login to an agent?
亚马逊有没有权利拒绝呢？
And does Amazon have the right to say no?
这就是Plaid和Chase以及那些银行之间发生过的事情。
This is what happened with Plaid and Chase and the banks.
最后的结果往往是经过漫长的谈判达成协议，像Chase这样的银行会说：“嘿，你确实有权获取这些信息，但只能通过我的API。”
And in the end, what tended to happen was there was this long negotiated settlement where the likes of Chase said, "Hey, you do have the right to this information, but only on my APIs.
而我的API会限制我提供给你的信息范围。
And my APIs limit what information I give you.
他们会对银行账户进行令牌化处理。”
They tokenize the bank accounts."
而且我可能会为此收取很高的费用。
And I might charge a lot of money for it.
而且我可能还会向你收点钱。
And I might charge you some money for it.
所以实际上，我觉得有趣的问题是，我们可能会有很多商家欢迎智能代理。
So actually, I think the interesting question is, I think we may have plenty of opportunities or plenty of merchants who just welcome agents.
我们也可能会有一些商家拥有自己的智能代理。
We may also have merchants who have their own agents.
事实上，如果我去百思买想买一台平板电视，我猜那里会有个销售员带着目的来，他或她会说：“让我给你展示一些平板电视。”
And in fact, this is what happens if I go to a Best Buy and I want to buy a flat-screen TV, I assume there'll be a salesperson there with an agenda, and he or she will say, "Let me show you some flat-screen TVs."
他们的工作是帮助我，但同时也是为了拿提成。
Now, their job is to help me, but their job is also to get a commission.
所以，在摩根大通和开放银行的案例中，更多是关于安全和控制的。
So we might have, in the case of Chase and open banking, it was much more a case of security and control.
在亚马逊的案例中，可能就是我是一个有主见的API。
In the case of Amazon, it might be, I am an opinionated API.
亚历克斯，基于你的很多数据点，我对你应该买什么有自己的看法。
I have an opinion on what you should buy, Alex, based on many different data points about you.
然后我的代理可能对我想要什么有自己的看法。
And then my agent may have an opinion about what I want.
所以那将是一场精彩的较量或交流。
And so that's going to be a fascinating battle or communication.
最终，我觉得消费者可能会赢，但我们不知道未来会是什么样子。
And in the end, I think consumers probably win, but we don't know what that's going to look like going forward.
好吧，关于这一点，你觉得现在发生的这些事情中，哪些被过度炒作，哪些又被低估了？
Well, maybe on that, what do you think is overhyped versus underhyped in terms of everything that's happening?
一般来说，我的经验是硅谷容易过度炒作，但世界其他地方又低估了。
In general, my rule of thumb is that Silicon Valley overhypes things, but then the rest of the world underhypes things.
所以在这里，每次谈话都是关于AI的。
So everything here, every conversation is AI.
但感觉你去了爱荷华州，没人谈论AI。
And it feels like you go to Iowa, nobody's talking about AI.
但当你展示给他们看时，他们会说：'天哪，这怎么可能是真的？'
But then you show it to them, like, "Holy shit, how is this real?"
因为他们三年前就试过了。
Because they tried it three years ago.
我最近刚买了一辆新的特斯拉，我记得我之前有一辆老款的Model 3。
And I just bought a new Tesla, and I remember I had an old Model 3.
我觉得这正好能说明我们刚才聊的话题。
I think this is a good metaphor for what we're talking about.
我2017年那辆老款Model 3就带自动驾驶功能。
I had an old Model 3 in 2017 with self-driving.
根本没法用。
Didn't work at all.
就是个笑话。
It was a joke.
后来换了别的车，现在这辆真的能用了。
Eventually, got a different car, and now it's like, it actually works.
但我一开始挺怀疑的，因为被2017年那次的体验给搞怕了。
But I was skeptical because I was used to the 2017 thing.
我觉得现在AI的情况跟这个很像。如果你在2022年试过ChatGPT，那时候它老是胡说八道，你会觉得，哦，这不过是个写诗或者帮我做英语作业的小玩具罢了。
And I feel like a lot of that is playing out with AI right now, where if you had tried ChatGPT with all the hallucinations and everything in 2022, you're like, "Oh, it's a cute toy for writing poems or doing my homework in English class or something.
它不可能真的帮我买东西。
This is not going to actually buy things for me.
也不可能帮我写代码。
This is not going to write code."
但现在这些它都能做了。
It does all these things right now.
所以我想问问你，你觉得现在这些发展里，哪些被低估了，哪些又被高估了？
So I guess, what do you think is underhyped versus overhyped in terms of everything that's going on?
那我先说说被高估的吧。
So maybe I'll start with overhyped.
我觉得不会出现那种银行挤兑的情况，就是AI代理为了追求最高收益，把我的钱在不同账户之间转来转去。
I don't think we're going to get a bank run on savings deposits where agents are going to maximize yield and move my money around between different accounts.
举个最好的例子，我是Mercury个人账户的忠实用户。
A perfect example, I am a very happy Mercury personal account customer.
我也是大通银行的客户。
I'm also a Chase customer.
理想情况下，我应该把所有积蓄都放在Mercury，因为那里的储蓄利率很高。
And ideally, I should put all my savings in Mercury, where I get a very good savings rate.
然后到了最后要付账单的时候，我再把钱转到我现在用的银行，大通。
And then at the last moment, when I have to pay bills, I'll move over the cash to my existing bank, Chase.
但是大通的账单支付功能更好用，集成更多，而且我已经设置好了。
But their bill pay just works better, and it has more integrations, and I have more setup.
所以我觉得现实中的摩擦还是很多的，我们不会看到金融服务领域出现那种疯狂的波动。
So I think there's enough friction in the world where we won't see some of the crazy volatility in financial services.
我觉得可能被低估的是，有很多需求还没有被商业化。
I think maybe what's underhyped, there is a lot of demand that is unmonetized.
这既体现在那些GDP增长潜力更大的地方。
And this is both at the part of the world where you could expect more GDP.
举个例子，我们有一个骑行微信群，里面有个人，每隔大概六个月吧，我们的朋友Seth就会根据滚动阻力提出新的轮胎推荐。
An example of this is we actually have a group cycling WhatsApp group, and we have a person on that group who every, I don't know, it seems like every six months, when our friend Seth comes up with a new recommendation for what tires to get because he looks at rolling resistance.
每次他这么做，我都会想，'哦，我应该记得买那些轮胎，因为它们更安全。'
And every time he does this, I'm like, "Oh, I should remember to buy those tires because they're safer."
但我每两年才买一次。
But I only buy it every two years.
如果我的代理在那个群聊里，每次Seth提出新建议，我都会买轮胎。
If my agent was in that group chat, I would be buying tires every time Seth makes a new recommendation.
亚历克斯，你在自行车装备上的消费潜力被严重低估了。
You're dramatically under-monetized on your bike equipment, Alex.
如果代理能找到对你有帮助的骑行用品并直接帮你买下来，亚历克斯在骑行上的消费就会增加。
If the agent could find things that could help you with cycling and just bought them for you, there's more GDP coming out of Alex on cycling.
这一点被低估了。
That is underhyped.
同时，代理也会帮我们省钱。
At the same time, agents are going to save us money.
所以，可能有很多地方我订阅了服务，但取消起来很麻烦，或者我试用了某个服务然后忘了取消。
So, there's probably many places where I have some subscription and it's just been a hassle to cancel, or I did some trial and I forgot about it.
所以我觉得智能体会同时帮我们省钱，也许还会用省下的钱帮我们买新东西。
So I think agents will simultaneously save us money, maybe use that savings to help us buy new items.
所以我觉得我们还没真正体验到这些智能体全天候在线的特性，而且据我所知，人类的欲望和需求是无穷无尽的。
So I think we have yet to experience the always-on nature of these agents, and as far as I can tell, human desires and needs are infinite.
所以总会有别的东西是我想要的，因此我觉得这一点被低估了。
So there's always something else that I will want, and so I think that's underrated.
但也许在这个对立与和解，或者说对立面的问题上。
But maybe on this kind of antagonistic versus conciliatory, or whatever the opposite of antagonistic would be here.
很多人对智能体感到兴奋的一点是，它能帮你拿到那些故意设置障碍、不太受经济规律支配的东西。
A lot of what people are very excited about with the agents is it gets something for you that is intentionally hard and is not really subject to the laws of economics.
经济规律就像，高价的解药就是高价。
The laws of economics are like, the cure for high prices is high prices.
如果订餐厅很难，因为你得早上七点打电话，那么现在每个人都有工具在早上七点打电话，所以前五个拥有这个工具的人，他们就有了一个很棒的工具。
If it's really hard to get a restaurant reservation because you have to call at 7:00 a.m., well, now everybody has a tool that calls at 7:00 a.m., and therefore, the first five people that have the tool, now they have an amazing tool.
最后五个人，就像，太挤了，所以没人去了那种感觉。
The last five people, like no, it's so crowded nobody goes here anymore kind of thing.
那你觉得世界会怎么变？
So, how do you think the world changes?
因为现在感觉我们处在一个很奇怪的阶段，很多早期的成功，或者说消费者方面的成功，都是像“哦，它帮我省了钱，它帮我做了这个”这样的。
Because it feels like right now, this is the weird position that we're in, is that a lot of the early wins, if you will, the consumer successes are around like, "Oh, it saved me money, it did this."
这是因为信息不对称。
It's because of the asymmetry.
就像只有很少一部分人拥有这个工具。
Like a very small number of people have the tool.
商家或者对方根本不知道发生了什么。
The merchant or the counterparty has no idea what's going on.
我等不及了，你知道作为消费者，我一直被训练着说“不，不，我要跟真人说话”或者“按零”。
I can't wait, you know how, as a consumer, I've been trained to say, "No, no, I want to talk to an agent," or, "Press zero."
或者就像你可以查怎么绕过那个烦人的电话菜单。
Or it's like you can look up how do you get out of the stupid phone tree.
我等不及对方说“不，我必须跟真人说话”的那一天。
I can't wait for the other side to say, "No, I have to talk to Terry.
我才不跟Muse说话呢。
I ain't talking to Muse."
那是不是挺搞笑的？
Wouldn't that be funny?
你打给康卡斯特，你会说：“我恨你。
You call Comcast, you're like, "I hate you.
你真烂。
You suck.
你的服务太差了。
Your service is terrible.
你断了十次。”
You went down 10 times."
我经常这么干。
I do this all the time.
不过，我当然真的用Codex这么干过，因为结果发现康卡斯特在屏蔽Muse。
But I, of course, I actually did this with Codex because it turned out Comcast is blocking Muse.
他们知道IP地址什么的，所以不让你登录。
They know the IP addresses or something, so it won't let you log in.
所以我就让ChatGPT、Codex、Astra在我的电脑上登录，什么都帮我搞定。
So I just have ChatGPT, Codex, Astra log in on my computer, does everything.
但我等着有一天康卡斯特说：“我们知道这不是你。”
But I'm waiting for the day when Comcast says, "We know this ain't you."
就像，“让亚历克斯接电话，因为我不会把东西交给他的代理。”
Like, "Put Alex on the line because I'm not giving something to his agent."
那就会——因为现在，再说一次，这就是我说的不对称。
And that's going to-- Because right now, again, that's what I mean by the asymmetry.
就像少数内部人士拥有这个工具。
It's like the small number of insiders have this tool.
但你知道吗？
But you know what?
你不可能无限扩展，因为世界会适应。
You can't scale that infinitely because the world is going to adapt.
不过我倒是要告诉康卡斯特一声，GPT Astra和Alex差不多是同一类对手。
Although I do have news for Comcast, the GPT Astra and Alex are about the same sort of foe.
对。
Yes.
所以要是他们打电话来，你们可得小心点。
So be careful if you get them on the phone.
是的，我觉得你指出了一个我们还没意识到的问题，就是当你真正去读那些条款和条件，并且走到允许和不允许的边缘时会发生什么。
Yeah, I think you're pointing out something that we have yet to appreciate, which is what happens when you actually read the terms and conditions and go to the edge of what is allowed and disallowed.
举个例子，前几天我在看航班。
So, an example, the other day, I was looking at flights.
我想买一张价格刚好在我能承受范围内、还能让我升级的机票。
I wanted to buy a flight that was on the edge of the price that I could pay that would get me an upgrade.
这挺难做到的，有时候我会超支。
And that's a hard thing to do, and sometimes I overshoot it.
我的代理却做得完美无缺。
My agent did that perfectly.
或者任何很难搞清楚条款和条件的情况。
Or any case where it's very difficult to uncover the terms and conditions.
一个很好的例子可能就是奖励积分会怎么样？
A good example might be what happens to rewards?
就像信用卡的奖励积分之所以存在，是因为我给你一个很大的餐饮消费奖励，但你也会用它来加油。
Like rewards on cards are only there because I get you this very big headline reward on dining, but then you also spend it on fuel.
如果代理介入我们所有的交易，而我只能在我能获得积分的卡上消费……
And if agents are intermediating all of our transactions, and I'm only getting points on the card that gets me...
我只用能积分的卡，整个积分奖励体系就会崩溃。
I'm only using the card where I get points, the whole points reward ecosystem falls apart.
很多这类事情都可能开始，任何带有损耗模式的系统都会开始崩溃，然后我们就得制定新的条款和条件。
So many of these things could start, anything with a sort of breakage model in it is going to start to fall apart, and then we'll have to have new terms and conditions.
所以这可能更好，也可能更糟，我不知道，但肯定会不一样。
So maybe that's better, maybe that's worse, I don't know, but it'll certainly be different.
那么，在这些主题中，你觉得VGS会往哪个方向发展呢？
And maybe what are you, kind of with all of these themes, where do you think VGS is going to go?
因为，我还是觉得这特别有意思，因为这是世界上最无聊的生意，就是一个巨大的保险库，存储着几乎所有听众的支付凭证。我几乎可以保证，你们每个人都有一个凭证存在VGS，因为你接触的某个商家就是用VGS来存储凭证的。
Because, again, I find it so interesting because it's the world's most boring business around it's this giant vault that stores all of the payment credentials for most, like everybody who's listening to this podcast, I almost guarantee you have a credential that's stored at VGS because you interact with a merchant that uses VGS for storage of credentials.
所以这是一个非常有利的位置，而且它一直在显著增长，因为，是的，每个商家都需要存储他们客户的凭证。
So it's a really formidable position to be in, and it's been growing remarkably just because, yeah, every merchant needs to store the credentials of the consumers that they work with.
但是，在我们讨论的所有内容中，你觉得VGS未来最令人兴奋的方向是什么？
But where do you think is the most exciting, of everything that we've talked about, for VGS's future?
所以，我觉得VGS大概有三个时代，它们是重叠并且相互叠加的。
So, I think there's sort of three eras of VGS that are kind of overlapping and compounding.
你提到了第一个时代，就是保险库。
And you talked about the first era, which is the vault.
这十个时代，基本上就是成为互联网上最值得信赖的凭证存储地。
This is 10 eras as sort of becoming the most trusted store for credentials across the internet.
这是一个很难执行好的业务，但这也是公司所处的有利位置。
A very hard business to execute on, but that's the sort of privileged position that the company's in.
第二个时代就是你提到的，信息进出那个保险库的过程。
The second era has been what you talked about, sort of information going into and out of that vault.
所以，三分之一的凭证需要更新。
So that's a third of those credentials have to be updated.
这变得非常有趣且复杂，因为每个网络都有自己的更新凭证标准。
That's become very interesting and complicated because each network has their own standard for how you update their credentials.
而且每个网络都创建了多个代表保险库的网络令牌。
And each network has created multiple network tokens that represent the vault.
如果只是存储信息，那还好说，但你必须存储并获取一系列来自网络的令牌，以便数据得到有效刷新。
If you were just storing the information, it'd be one thing, but you have to store it and get a series of tokens from the networks, so that the data is effectively refreshed.
第三个时代就是我们所说的网络时代，也就是在多方之间充当凭证经纪人的角色。
The third era is what we call the network era, which is this role of brokering the credentials among multiple parties.
以符合规则的方式，并为所有生态系统参与者增加价值。
In a way that makes sense according to the rules, and that adds value to all of the ecosystem players.
我们现在正开始通过代理商务来做这件事。
And we're sort of starting to do that now with agentic commerce.
还有其他情况，VGS实际上正在与银行合作，处理令牌化方面的工作。
There are other cases where VGS is actually working with the banks on the tokenization front.
所以，如果你在做卡片代币化，同时也在存储卡片，那你就站在了这个生态系统的两端，这样你就能进行一些你之前提到的信息交换。
So if you're tokenizing the cards and you're storing the cards, you're on both sides of this ecosystem, which allows you to do some of the information swaps that you sort of talked about earlier.
所以，所有这些加在一起。
So, and all of these combined.
我们会继续做保险库，继续增加服务，随着我们在更多商户和更多发卡机构上增加服务，我们会继续获得这种网络效应，可以在各方之间协调凭证。
We'll continue to be a vault, we'll continue to add services, and as we add more services on more merchants and on more issuers, we continue to get this network effect where you can broker credentials among the parties.
而且我认为代理商务只是这个生态系统的燃料。
And I think agentic commerce is just fuel into that ecosystem.
好吧，特里，这次回忆之旅真有趣。
Well, Terry, this has been fun down memory lane.
总有一天我们应该做……
One of these days we should do...
我觉得我们很久以前确实做过一次Trial Pay的历史回顾。
I think we actually did a history of Trial Pay one a long time ago.
是的，我觉得我们应该重做一次。
Yeah, I think we should redo it.
那是我们最早做的播客之一。
It was one of the first podcasts that we did.
那时候的录音室可没这么好。
The studio wasn't as nice.
但我觉得，从第一期播客到这一期，有一点始终没变，那就是你应该多给老婆买花。
But I think what's consistent between that first podcast and this one is you should be buying more flowers for your wife.
对。
Yes.
我觉得这个主意特别好。
I think that's a great idea.
好的。
All right.
那非常感谢你。
Well, thank you very much.
谢谢你的邀请。
Thank you for having me.
感谢收听本期a16z播客。
Thanks for listening to this episode of the "a16z" podcast.
如果你喜欢这期节目，记得点赞、评论、订阅，给我们评分或留言，并分享给你的朋友和家人。
If you liked this episode, be sure to like, comment, subscribe, leave us a rating or review, and share it with your friends and family.
想听更多节目，可以上YouTube、Apple Podcasts和Spotify。
For more episodes, go to YouTube, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify.
在X上关注我们@a16z，并订阅我们的Substack，地址是a16z.substack.com。
Follow us on X @a16z and subscribe to our Substack at a16z.substack.com.
再次感谢收听，我们下期再见。
Thanks again for listening, and I'll see you in the next episode.
提醒一下，这里的内容仅供参考。
As a reminder, the content here is for informational purposes only.
这些内容不应被视为法律、商业、税务或投资建议，也不应用于评估任何投资或证券，并且不针对任何a16z基金的投资者或潜在投资者。
It should not be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice, or be used to evaluate any investment or security, and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund.
请注意，a16z及其关联公司可能也持有本播客中讨论到的公司的投资。
Please note that a16z and its affiliates may also maintain investments in the companies discussed in this podcast.
更多详情，包括我们的投资链接，请访问 a16z.com/disclosures。
For more details, including a link to our investments, please see a16z.com/disclosures.
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