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在一年中的大部分时间里，不到10%的ChatuchuBT用户会访问其他大型LLM提供商。
For most of the year, less than 10% of ChatuchuBT users even visited another one of the big LLM providers.
当你打开Gemini时，会弹出一个提示说：我们有纳米香蕉。
When you open Gemini, it has a pop up that says, we got nano banana.
你想用它做点什么吗？
Would you like to do something with it?
就是那个你需要从中选择内容的小窗口。
The little pane where you have to pick something.
是的。
Yeah.
我不知道该做什么。
I don't know what to do.
这些是产品细节，我认为正是它们促使人们真正迈出第一步。
These are product nuances that I think makes people actually take the first step.
这些模型的质量已经达到了可以基于它们构建真正可扩展应用的水平。
The models have gotten to the level of quality that you can build a real scalable app on top of them.
因此，人们希望2026年会成为消费者开发者的重要一年。
And so the hope is 2026 will be a huge year for consumer builders.
随着2025年接近尾声，消费级AI的面貌与今年年初已大不相同。
As 2025 comes to a close, consumer AI is starting to look very different than it did at the beginning of the year.
如今，少数几款产品已主导了日常使用。
A small number of products now dominate everyday usage.
新的多模态模型迅速走红，各大实验室也前所未有地大力投入消费级体验。
New multimodal models have gone viral, and the big labs have pushed harder than ever into consumer experiences.
为总结这一年，a16z团队的安妮莎·查亚、奥利维亚·摩尔、贾斯汀·摩尔和布莱恩·金剖析了2025年真正成功和失败的地方。
To take stock of the year, the a16z team, Anisha Charya, Olivia Moore, Justine Moore, and Brian Kim break down what actually worked in 2025 and what didn't.
他们讨论了哪些模型发布和界面改变了用户行为，为何细微的产品设计比模型原始性能更重要，以及消费级AI市场是否正朝着赢家通吃的方向发展。
They discuss which model launches and interfaces change user behavior, why small product details matter more than raw model quality, and whether the consumer AI market is trending toward winner take most.
对话还展望了2026年，探讨了初创公司仍有机会的空间，模板和多模态如何重塑创作方式，以及这是否终于成为可扩展的消费级AI应用爆发的时刻。
The conversation also looks ahead to 2026, where there is still room for startups, how templates and multimodality are reshaping creation, and why this may finally be the moment when scalable consumer AI apps break out.
今天我们来讨论2025年谁在消费级AI领域胜出。
Today we're talking about who won consumer AI in 2025.
这可以说是大型模型提供商——OpenAI和谷歌——大力进军消费市场的关键一年，不仅发布了新模型，还推出了面向主流用户的新产品、功能和界面。
This was arguably the year that we saw the big model providers, OpenAI and Google, most out of everyone, make a major push of their own into consumer, both in terms of new models they release, but also in terms of new products, features and interfaces that target the mainstream user.
你可能会好奇，谁在这里领先为什么重要。
You might wonder why does it matter who is in the lead here.
有一些早期迹象表明，通用LLM助手领域正朝着赢家通吃或至少赢家通吃的趋势发展。
There are some early signs that the general LLM assistant space might be trending towards winner take all or at least winner take most.
目前，只有9%的消费者为ChatGPT、Gemini、Claude和Cursor中的多个产品付费。
So only 9% of consumers are paying for more than one out of the group of ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude and Cursor.
在这一年中的大部分时间里，甚至不到10%的ChatGPT用户会访问其他大型LLM提供商，比如Gemini。
And for most of the year, less than 10% of ChatGPT users even visited another one of the big LLM providers like Gemini.
如果现在要下结论，ChatGPT以8亿到9亿的周活跃用户遥遥领先。
If we had to call it now, ChatGeBT is currently in the lead by far at 800 to 900,000,000 weekly active users.
Gemini在网页端的使用率估计为其功能的35%，在移动端约为40%。
Gemini's add an estimated 35% of their skill on web and about 40% on mobile.
其他所有竞争对手都远远落后于它们。
And everyone else significantly trails this.
所以Claude、Grok、Perplexity的使用量都大约在8%到10%之间。
So Claude, Grock, Perplexity are all about eight to 10% of the usage.
但尤其是在过去三到六个月里，情况变化非常迅速。
But especially in the last three to six months, things are changing very quickly.
随着像Nano Banana这样的新病毒式模型的推出，Gemini的桌面用户同比增长了155%，即使在规模扩大的情况下，增长仍在加速，这真是令人难以置信。
With the launch of new viral models like Nano Banana, Gemini is now growing desktop users a 155% year over year, which is actually accelerating even as they reach more scale, which is pretty crazy to see.
而ChatGPT的同比增长仅为23%。
And ChatGPT is only growing 23% year over year.
我们开始看到像Anthropic这样的玩家几乎专注于消费市场，深耕特定垂直领域，比如超技术型用户。
And we're starting to see players like Anthropic almost specialize within consumer owning different verticals like the hyper technical user.
因此，今天我们召集了十六人的消费团队，回顾今年各大模型公司面向消费者领域的发展，并预测2026年可能到来的趋势。
So today we've brought together the a sixteen z consumer team to recap what we saw this year from the big model companies and consumer and also to predict what might be ahead of us in 2026.
酷。
Cool.
好吧，Olivia。
Well, you, Olivia.
今年真是超级有趣的一年。
It's been a super fun year.
如果我们把时间倒回去年一月，也许我们应该先聊聊今年有哪些发布、产品，哪些成功了，哪些没成功。
If we kind of wind the timeline back to last January, maybe we should start with what we saw launches, products, what worked, what didn't.
所以，贾斯汀，跟我们说说你今年看到了什么。
So Justine, tell us what you saw this year.
打开眼睛看看谷歌，你关注的是什么？
Opening eye Google, what are you paying attention to?
你对哪些事情改变了看法？
What have you changed your mind on?
嗯。
Yeah.
尤其是那两家，像奥利维亚提到的，推出了大量面向消费者的产品。
Those two in particular had a ton of consumer launches, like Olivia mentioned.
从模型的角度来看，我认为今年它们最广为传播的模型，至少在消费者层面，是图像和视频领域的。
From a model perspective, I would argue their most viral models this year, at least among consumers, were in image and video.
对于OpenAI来说，是ChatGPT-4o图像、吉卜力时刻，这
So for OpenAI, it was the ChatGPT four o image, the Ghibli moment, which
真难以置信，这竟然发生在今年。
is crazy that that was this year.
这已经是几年前的事了。
It's was years ago.
然后是Sora，显然还有Sora 2。
And then Sora, obviously, Sora two.
而对于Google来说，是VO、VO三和VO 3.1。
And then for Google, it's VO, VO three and VO 3.1.
还有Nano Banana和Nano Banana Pro在图像模型上的表现，它们爆红程度极高，可能堪比甚至超越了OpenAI的吉卜力时刻。
And then Nano Banana and Nano Banana Pro in image models, which went insanely viral, probably comparable to, if not beyond, the Ghibli moment for OpenAI.
我认为在产品层面，我们看到OpenAI更倾向于将更多功能保留在ChatGPT界面内。
I think in terms of the product layer, what we saw was OpenAI tended to keep more things in the ChatGPT interface.
比如脉冲、群聊、购物、研究、任务，所有这些功能都作为核心功能发布在ChatGPT内部。
So like pulse, group chats, shopping, research, tasks, all of these features launched inside ChatGPT as the core.
例外显然是Sora作为一个独立的视频应用，而谷歌则倾向于推出更多独立产品。
The exception there is obviously Soora as a standalone video app, whereas Google tended to launch more things as standalone products.
因此，他们通过Google AI Studio、Google Labs、Gemini以及众多谷歌服务推出大量产品。
So they did ship a lot through like Google AI Studio and Google Labs and Gemini and the plethora of Google services there are to launch a product.
但他们也会推出独立的网站，用户可以直接访问，这使得每种产品都能拥有更定制化的界面，而不仅仅是聊天入口、聊天出口或图像视频出口的形式。
But they would also ship things as standalone websites that you could go to and visit, which basically allowed for a more custom interface for each type of product, not just the kind of chat entry, chat exit or image video exit.
嗯，我对此有个问题想问你。
Well, so just see, I have a question for you on that.
所以，十八个月前，我们还在谈论MidJourney，当时大多数多模态模型都是由美学和真实感定义的。
So it felt like eighteen months ago, we were talking about mid journey, and most of the multimodal models were defined by aesthetics and realism.
现在还是这样吗？
Is that still true?
今年发生了什么变化？
What changed this year?
是的。
Yeah.
我认为不同的风格依然存在。
I think there's definitely different styles still.
我认为，当你和真正深入图像与视频领域的人交流时，MidJourney仍然因其独特的审美感而脱颖而出，如果你不懂如何提示，很多模型就缺乏这种特质。
And I think mid journey, when you talk to people really deep in image and video, it still kind of stands apart for this, like, aesthetic sensibility that a lot of models don't have if you don't know how to prompt for it.
但我想说，尤其是今年，我们在现实主义以及图像和视频中的推理能力上取得了巨大进展，比如那些让图像或视频真正显得真实的所有细微细节。
But I would say this year in particular, we made a lot more strides on realism and also on reasoning within both image and video, like all of the little details that make an image or a video actually seem real.
例如，如果你看到一个人边走边说话，背景中街上的汽车里的人，应该朝正确的方向移动。
For example, if you have a person walking and talking, the people in the cars in the background, if they're on a street, should be moving in the correct direction.
它们不应该扭曲或看起来奇怪。
Like, they shouldn't be morphing and looking strange.
在图像方面，我们现在能够同时输入多张图片和文本，并跨所有这些上传内容进行推理，从而创建出连贯的设计之类的东西，这在去年是绝对看不到的。
In image, we were able to have multiple input images and text and sort of reason across all of those uploads to create like a cohesive design or something like that, which was not something we saw happening last year for sure.
是的。
Yeah.
我记得我们曾经为图像中字母能正确显示而兴奋不已，而现在我们已经有了令人惊叹的信息图。
I remember when we were excited about having a letter show up correctly in images, And now we have insane infographics.
是的。
Yes.
对。
Yeah.
我们可以上传一个精彩的YouTube视频，然后说：给我一张能解释我们的图片。
We can just put up amazing YouTube video and say give me an image that explains us.
完全正确。
Totally.
这太惊人了。
That's incredibly.
Nano Banana Pro甚至能生成市场地图。
Nano Banana Pro can even generate like market maps.
一个空间。
A space.
地图。
Map.
这太不可思议了。
It's incredible.
而且它要么已经具备，要么即将在图像模型中进行网络搜索，以获取正确的公司列表并提取它们的
And it either has or will go do the web research within the image model, which is crazy to get the correct list of companies and then pull their
产品标志，
product logos,
这太疯狂了。
which is insane.
我知道。
I know.
还有一个基准是推理型图像模型尚未攻克的。
There's one benchmark left that the reasoning image models have not cracked.
我昨天测试了GP图像1.5。
Not I tested GP image 1.5 yesterday.
它们有时在推理和多步推理上都有困难。
They sometimes struggle with both reasoning and multistep reasoning.
所以我一直在测试的是，你上传一张大富翁棋盘的照片，然后说：移除所有地产的名称，替换成人工智能实验室和初创公司的名字。
So what I've been testing is you upload a picture of a monopoly board and you say, remove the names of all the properties and replace them with names of AI labs and startups.
GPT图像1.5是最接近的，但让它们完成所有这些步骤非常困难。
And GPT image 1.5 is actually the closest, but it's very hard for them to do all of those steps.
移除原名称，想出新名字，把所有新名字准确地放到正确位置，确保没有重叠，也没有某个名字被重复提到三次而另一个重要角色却从未出现。
Remove it, come up with the new names, put all of the new names in the correct places, make sure there's not overlaps or one thing you mentioned three times and another big player you never mentioned.
所以在这方面还有改进的空间。
So there's still some room to go on
图像评估方面。
the image evals.
有趣的是，尤其是来自ChatGPT的图像模型，你可以看到它持续保持某种特征
And it's interesting that especially from the image model from ChatGPT where you can actually see perseverance of like it carries a character
嗯。
Mhmm.
在多次图像生成中保持相同的风格。
Over into multiple image generation, the same style.
嗯。
Yep.
我觉得这真的很有趣，尤其是分镜设计
And I thought that was like, oh, like, this is actually very interesting where storyboarding
完全没错。
Totally.
让你想要生成更多内容。
Makes you want to generate more.
是的。
Yeah.
对我来说，纳米香蕉与搜索功能的整合是最被低估的方面。
You know, for me, it felt like the most underhyped aspect of nano banana was the integration with search.
因为它给人一种真实感，比如物理效果和其他一些东西，让我们感觉仿佛置身于坎尼谷。
Because it feels like there's realism, which is physics and sort of other things that feel like we're on Caney Valley.
还有推理能力，即根据要求进行符合逻辑的修改。
There is reasoning, which is apply modifications that are adherent to what these are asked for.
但还有准确性的问题。
But then there's also sort of accuracy.
对我来说，一个很好的例子是产品摄影。
And for me, good example of this is product photography.
如果你说，嘿，生成这张专辑封面的照片，或者这个历史时刻的准确照片，你就必须要有搜索集成。
If you say, hey, generate a photo of this album cover, or a historically accurate photo of this moment in time, you have to actually have the search integration.
这一点起初并不直观，但实际上非常有用。
And that was sort of nonintuitive, but it's actually very useful.
完全正确。
Totally.
是的。
Yeah.
这有点像VO3时刻，当时人们并不认为通过将音频与视频结合在一起就能破解视频生成。
It's kinda like the v o three moment when I don't think it was intuitive to people that video would be cracked necessarily by bringing audio together with video in the same place.
而正是这一点让AI视频走红。
And that ended up being the thing that made AI video go viral.
自从VO3和现在Sora可能占据主导以来，我的社交动态里充满了非常逼真的画面。
Like since v o three and now Sora maybe dominates, but like since v o three, my social feeds have been like full of really realistic looking.
数过。
Counted.
全是
It's all
我动态中有五分之一是AI生成的。
about one fifth of my feeds are AI generated.
太棒了。
Amazing.
哇。
Wow.
你们平时都做些什么？
What do you guys do?
今年有这么多新产品发布，其中很多都取得了成功，比如Vio和Nano。
There's so many launches this year, and many of them went well, like Vio and Nano.
你认为哪些产品被低估了，或者哪些产品没有得到足够的关注？
What do you think is underhyped or products that you think didn't get enough attention?
布莱恩？
Brian?
这是个好问题。
It's a good question.
我认为‘世界脉搏’可能仍然被低估了，我们谈论的是OpenAI和谷歌，对我来说它们属于生产力类别。
I think underhyped Pulse of the world is probably still underhyped, and we're talking about OpenAI, Google, which to me falls under productivity category.
如果你真的想想，今天去App Store，前10大生产力应用中有5个都是谷歌的。
So if you actually think about if you go to App Store today, top five out of top 10 productivity apps are all Google.
这太疯狂了。
It's insane.
而Tashibee排名第一。
And Tashibee is number one.
我们讨论的是一个帮助你完成事情的生产力类别。
So we're talking about a productivity category where it helps you do things.
我觉得很多人都在从另一个角度尝试，比如如何真正地获取你的数据、日程、邮件，让它变得更贴心，给你更多主动的提醒？
And I feel like a lot of people are trying this from a different angle, like how do I actually ingest your data or your schedule, your email to make it more helpful and give more proactive and notification to you?
我觉得很多人都在做这件事。
I think a lot of people are working on it.
考虑到人们使用ChatGPT的频率，我认为大概是每周25次？
Given the frequency of people using ChatGPT, which I think is what, 25 times a week?
很不错。
Pretty good.
很不错。
Pretty good.
每天三到四次。
Three to four times a day.
这似乎是一个绝佳的位置，可以给你主动的提示、总结，帮助你整体提升生活。
It feels like it's a really good position to actually give you proactive nudges and summary and help your life in general.
我觉得在西方世界，‘万能应用’一直是个神话。
I feel like the everything app was always this myth in the Western world.
我认为OpenAI正在朝这个方向努力，即摄入足够的数据。
Think OpenAI is trying to move in that direction where it's ingesting enough.
人们使用得足够频繁，足以开始提供真正有用的主动提醒。
People are going there enough to start giving really useful proactive nudges.
我认为这是一个让我感到兴奋的领域。
I think that's a space that I'm excited about.
这很有趣。
It's interesting.
但你是日活跃用户吗？
But are you a DAU?
我不是日活跃用户。
I am not a DAU.
一个使用频率？
A pulse?
嗯，不是，不是，不是虚假的。
Well, not not not a false.
同样，我试过Pulse一段时间，但现在已经基本不用了。
Similarly, I tried pulse for a while and have kind of largely turned off of it.
但我同意你的看法，我觉得Pulse和OpenAI今年推出的其他几个例子都是些新原型或新想法，却未得到足够关注。
But I would agree with you that I feel like pulse and a couple other examples that OpenAI launched this year are kind of new primitives or ideas that feel underhyped.
但因为执行得不太好。
But because the execution is a little off.
我觉得是执行的问题。
I think it's execution.
使用体验有问题。
The usage is off.
另一个例子是，就像个人联系人，他们的连接器也是类似的。
Another example that I would give, is similarly like personal contacts would be their connectors.
所以现在你可以在云端做到这一点。
So now you can and you can do this on cloud as well.
你可以连接你的日历、邮箱和文档。
You can connect your calendar, your email, your documents.
所以，理论上你可以对ChatGPT说：帮我读一下过去六个月的所有备忘录，总结出最有趣和最不有趣的内容。
And so hypothetically, you could say to ChatGPT, you know, read all of my memos over the past six months and like summarize what's most interesting, least interesting.
我认为当这一点实现时，会非常令人兴奋。
I think when that works, it's really exciting.
到目前为止，我发现它有点不可靠，但我认为随着模型不断改进，如果能做到这一点，它们真正有机会主导专业消费者的工作空间。
I have found it to be a little bit unreliable so far, but I think as the models get better, they have a real chance to kind of own the prosumer workspace if they get that right.
‘专业消费者’这个类别非常贴切，因为我们有时会谈到它，但99%的人并不会用日历管理生活。
Prosumer is perfect category because they we talk about it sometimes, but 99% of people don't run their lives on calendar.
是的。
Yeah.
我们确实会。
We do.
对吧？
Right?
这正是我在思考ChatGPT实际使用频率时所想到的。
That's that's what I'm thinking about the actual average frequency of using ChatGPT.
而且，如果一周用24次，那已经是个不错的起点了。
And look, if it's 24 times a week, that's pretty good place to start.
没错。
Yeah.
奥利维亚，我觉得你简直是终极高级用户。
Olivia, I feel like you are the ultimate power user.
你还在用什么？
What are you still using?
你的工具栈是什么？
What's your stack?
这是个很好的问题。
It's a great question.
在所有大型模型公司中，实际上我至今使用最多、今年最让我印象深刻的是Perplexity Comet浏览器。
From all of the larger model companies, actually, I would have to say the thing that I'm still using the most and was maybe the most impressed by this year was the Perplexity Comet browser.
我并没有把Perplexity当作我的核心通用LLM助手。
And I don't and was not using Perplexity as my core general LLM assistant.
我更多地使用Chatuchi BT和Claude。
I use Chatuchi BT and Claude much more.
但我认为他们在浏览器内的智能代理模型方面，以及更重要的是，在你可以设置的各种工作流方面，都以一流的方式实现了这些功能，这些工作流允许你在一个预设时间或在特定网页被触发时，反复执行同一任务。
But I think they really executed on it in a first class way in terms of both the agentic model within the browser but also perhaps more importantly, all of the workflows that you can set up that allow you to basically run the same task over and over either at a preset time or when you trigger it on a certain web page.
因此，对我来说，这是一次非常令人兴奋的发布。
So that to me was a really exciting launch.
如果你看一下数据，Comet发布时的流量激增以及持续的访问量，实际上远高于ChatGPT自己的浏览器发布版Atlas，这有点疯狂，因为ChatGPT在Perplexity中的用户覆盖面要大得多。
And if you look at the data, like the spike at launch and the sustained traffic for Comet was actually much higher than for ChatGPT's own browser launch, Atlas, which is kinda crazy given how much more distribution ChatGPT has in Perplexity.
但我认为他们今年还推出了一个邮件助手，Perplexity确实如此，而且还收购了几家非常强大的智能代理初创公司。
But I think they also launched an email assistant this year, Perplexity did, and they made a couple acquisitions of really strong agentic startups.
因此，我期待他们明年能推出更多这类面向专业用户的专属界面。
And so what I would love to see from them next year is like more of these dedicated prosumer interfaces.
我觉得这会是他们值得大力投入的一个绝佳方向。
Feel like that would be an awesome direction for them to kind of double down in.
他们确实像是最具雄心壮志的初创公司。
They do feel like the startup that has the biggest breadth of ambition.
是的，你
Yeah, you
你知道，与实验室和大型科技公司相比，这非常令人印象深刻。
know, alongside the labs and sort of big tech like it's very, very impressive.
他们今年发布了不少产品。
Just a number of things they've shipped this year.
是的， definitely。
Yes, definitely.
我想问你一个问题，吉婷，我觉得 Gemini 因为所有图像和视频模型而正迎来真正的高光时刻。
What I'm you know, one one thing I wanted to ask you, Justine, was sort of Gemini feels like it's having a real moment because of all the image and video models.
是的。
Yeah.
你认为它能超越 ChatGPT 吗？
Do you think it can overtake ChatGPT?
真的有这么大的需求来支持这类模型吗？
Is there truly that much demand for these types of models?
我觉得是的。
I think yeah.
所以，我所看到的是，对于顶级的图像或视频模型，需求几乎是无限的，因为会有大量不同的人看到并想使用它们。
So what we what I've seen basically is there is always nearly infinite demand for, like, the best in class image or video model because then you have a mix of tons of different people seeing it and wanting to use it.
如果你是专业人士，比如从事营销、娱乐、故事板等工作，你总是想使用领域内最前沿的技术。
You have like, if you're using it professionally, if you're marketing or in entertainment or storyboarding or whatever, you always wanna be using what's at the forefront of the field.
因此，你完全可以不去使用ChatGPT或Sora，而是去获取Vio的访问权限。
And so you're totally fine to go somewhere other than Chat GPT and Sora to to get access to Vio.
即使你是普通消费者，许多新的病毒式趋势也是围绕顶级图像和视频模型的新功能而产生的。
Even if you're an everyday consumer, so many new viral trends are created around new capabilities of the best in class image and video models.
因此，这最终会把用户引导到他们以前可能从未尝试过的不同产品中。
And so that ends up driving users into different products that they may have never tried before.
比如，你可能会下载Gemini应用，或者无意中进入Google AI Studio，我知道他们正努力让这个平台更适用于开发者，比如Nano Banana Pro，过去几个月里，很多用户都体验过。
Like, you might be downloading the Gemini app or accidentally ending up on Google AI Studio, which I know they're trying to make be more for developers to use Nano Banana Pro, which a lot of users I think experienced in the past couple of months.
是的。
Yeah.
对我来说，Gemini 的有趣之处在于，理论上它受益于谷歌巨大的分发优势。
The interesting thing about Gemini to me is, like, hypothetically, they benefit from the massive Google distribution advantage.
嗯。
Mhmm.
比如，如果你看 Android，Gemini 在移动端的规模大约是 ChatGPT 的 50%，而在 iOS 上则只有 17%。
Like, if you look at Android, Gemini is at, like, 50% of ChatGPT's scale on mobile, whereas on iOS, it's, 17%.
所以，显然那里有些东西是有效的。
So, like, clearly something is working there.
他们最近在 Chrome 中推出了一款小小的 Gemini 小部件，鼓励你使用它，并且还在 Google Docs、Gmail 和其他产品中推出。
They launched a little Gemini widget within Chrome recently that encourages you to use They're launching it within Google Docs and Gmail and other things.
嗯。
Yeah.
但我认为，大多数普通人仍然只使用一种 AI 产品。
But I think that most the average person is still just using one AI product.
嗯。
Mhmm.
而ChatGPT就像是AI领域的纸巾。
And ChatGPT is like the Kleenex of AI.
就像一个已经成为
Like, is the brand that has become
通用名词的品牌。
the noun.
没错。
Exactly.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
所以
And so
我认为Gemini仍然面临着巨大的挑战。没错。
I think that Gemini still has a pretty big hurdle to overcome Yep.
就这一点而言。
Just in terms of that.
是的。
Yeah.
但如果他们继续推出这些令人惊叹的病毒式消费创意工具和模型发布，明年他们可能就能做到。
But if they keep doing what they're doing on these amazing viral consumer creative tool launches and model launches, like, they could get there next year.
我正在思考这个问题。
I'm thinking about this.
当你观察无处不在的Gemini时，这真的很有意思。
It's really interesting when you look at Gemini, which is everywhere.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
但在某种程度上又无处可寻。
But yet nowhere to some extent.
对吧？
Right?
当你看实际使用情况时，人们还是只会想到克林泰克斯，你不觉得这样不好吗？
You don't like you know, when you look at the actual usage, people still think of the Kleenex.
没错。
Yep.
而且他们都会去用ChatGPT。
And they go to ChatGPT.
但有趣的是，从产品感知的角度来看。
But the interesting thing also is on the product sensibility.
嗯。
Mhmm.
今天早上，我开了两个窗口。
So this morning, I had, two panes open.
一个是OpenAI的图像模型，另一个是Google的Gemini，基本上都在使用它们的图像功能。
OpenAI's image model and and Google's Gemini and basically use a image functionality.
当你打开Gemini时，屏幕上是空白的。
When you open Gemini, it's a blank screen.
它会弹出一个提示，说我们有纳米香蕉。
It has a pop up that says we got nano banana.
你想用它做点什么吗？
Would you like to do something with it?
就是那个你需要输入内容的小窗口。
And it's the little pane where you have to type something.
是的。
Yeah.
我不知道该做什么。
I don't I don't know what to do.
是的。
Yeah.
打开ChatGPT时，它会以一种非常像TikTok的风格展示一些热门主题，供你生成。
ChatGPT, you go in and it has a very TikTok like style of like, here's a trending themes that you might wanna generate.
然后你点击一下，我想用素描笔之类的。
And you click on, I want a sketch pen or whatever.
再随便用另一张图片，它就能生成出惊人的效果。
And then just like use one other picture and it creates something amazing.
接着它会问：你想要一张节日贺卡吗？
And then it says, would you like a holiday card?
你想要一个乱七八糟的东西吗？
Would you like a blah blah blah blah?
这些是产品的细微差别，我认为正是这些促使人们真正迈出第一步，是的。
These are product nuances that I I think makes people actually take the first step Yeah.
来生成它。
To generate it.
一旦你生成了，就能保持角色的一致性。
And then once you have it, you have character consistency.
嗯。
Yep.
所以你要继续下去。
So you keep going.
对。
Right.
这很有趣，因为我认为OpenAI和ChatGPT团队证明了他们拥有更深层次的产品洞察力。
So that's interesting in that I think OpenAI and ChatGP team has proven that there is deeper product sensibility.
没错。
Yep.
但接下来我要说一件有点有趣的事，也许有点不符合文化习惯，但你知道，我曾在Snap工作过。
But then I this is a funny thing, maybe a little non culture thing to say, but, you know, I I worked at Snap.
所以当你对比Meta和Snap时，众所周知，Evan Spiegel曾是Meta的首席产品官。
So when you look at Meta versus Snap, famously, Evan Spiegel was chief product officer of Meta.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我想知道是否存在这样一个世界：ChatGPT团队不断在产品层面创新，而拥有分发优势的谷歌会看着他们说，这真酷。
I wonder if there's a world where the ChatGPT team that innovates on the product front again and again, Google with distribution looks at them like, that's cool.
让我们直接整合它，继续前进，真正参与这场游戏。
Let's just let's just integrate it and keep going and actually play that game.
有趣的是，图像面板是在我们拍摄这段视频的昨天刚刚上线的。
The interesting thing there is that images pane just launched yesterday when we're filming this.
在ChatGPT中。
In ChatGPT.
在ChatGPT中。
In ChatGPT.
全新的功能。
Brand new.
是的。
Yeah.
而且他们其实早就有了图像模型，却花了这么长时间才推出，没错。
And it took them like, they had image models for years, and it took them that long Yeah.
要设计一个独立且相对基础的生成界面，我几乎认为，像Crias、Hydras、Higgs Field这样的应用层公司率先推广了这种模板格式，并且做得更早、更好。
To come up with a separate relatively basic interface for generating I would almost argue the application layer companies like the the Crias, the Hydras, the Higgs field of the world popularized that template format and did it first and did it better.
然后你们的ChatGPT产品团队，或许还有ChatGPT的产品理念。
And then your chat GBT's product people and then maybe the chat GBT's product ideas.
没错。
Exactly.
一直都是。
Always.
是的。
Yeah.
一直都是。
Always.
也许我们可以换个稍微不同的方向。
Well, maybe going a slightly different direction.
因为我非常好奇你对开放社交功能的看法，因为这确实需要在产品执行和网络设计上都做到极致，比如有一些关于双向互动的尝试，我们应该聊聊这个。
Because I'm very curious for your take on opening eyes social features, because it does feel like that's something that you really have to get product execution right on, but also network design, you know, there's some efforts around sort of two, we should talk about that.
聊天GPT里面也有群聊功能。
There's also group chats within chat GPT.
你一直以来是看好还是看空社交功能呢？
You're our sort of social guy or have been historically bullish, bearish.
你现在怎么看？
Where's your head at?
目前看空。
Bearish for now.
好的。
Okay.
对我来说，原因有两个。
And the reason to me is twofold.
历史上，我们看待这个问题挺有趣的。
Historically, we we look at sort of it's funny.
我根据所谓的‘开端理论’来评估产品。
I I look at products based on what I call inception theory.
你需要深入三到四层，才能找出那句核心的话，比如‘我希望爸爸爱我’。
You go like three to four layers down to figure out what the one liner is, which is like, want my dad to love me.
所以，当他们思考产品时
So, you know, when they think about products
这是为了你，还是为了这个世界？
Is that for you or for the world?
为了我，也为了很多人。
For me, as well as for a lot of people.
好的。
Okay.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
因此，我会看一些像ChatGPT这样的产品。
And so I I look at some of the, you know, products like like Chatuchi PT.
最终，当你剥开洋葱五层后，我认为本质上是在帮我变得更好。
Ultimately, when you peel the onion five times, I think, essentially, is help me be better.
比如，帮我获取那些信息。
Like, help me get that information.
帮我提高效率。
Help me be more productive.
帮我更加高效。
Help me be more efficient.
当我想到社交功能、Meta、Instagram，或者甚至TikTok时，它们试图传达给我的两层信息或情感，对TikTok来说就是：娱乐我。
And then when I think about social features, meta, Instagram, what have you, or even TikTok, the two layers of information or the, you know, emotion that is trying to address to me is for TikTok, entertain me.
我想看我的小丑。
I want my clown.
娱乐我。
Entertain me.
是的。
Yeah.
而另一层是，我感到孤独。
And then the other layer is I'm lonely.
我想被看见。
I wanna be seen.
我想与人建立联系。
I wanna connect with people.
对我来说，这两者是产品方向上完全不同的平行路径。
And to me, these are pretty two different parallels in the product direction.
OpenAI 的产品令人惊叹。
And OpenAI's product is incredible.
它就像魔法。
It's magic.
它太棒了。
It's amazing.
但它最终属于‘看见我’或‘帮助我’的范畴，这正是它在生产力类别中排名第一的根本原因。
But it's ultimately a see me or help me category, which essentially is why it's the number one in productivity category.
现在我们试图将这一点强加到人们的生活中，告诉他们：朋友们，去连接吧。
Now we're trying to take this and shove it in people's life and say, guys, connect.
更好地连接，真正地
Connect better and, like, actually
嗯。
Yeah.
感受到自己被看见。
Feel like you're being seen.
甚至那个我非常喜欢的群聊功能。
And even the group chat function, which I love.
计划一次旅行时，真正地共同经历那种共同的困扰会非常好。
It'll be so good to plan a trip and, like, actually have that common pain.
但我认为它仍然止步于两到三个人以‘帮我’的方式计划某件事。
But I think it still stops at probably end count of two to three people planning something in a help me way.
嗯。
Yeah.
相比之下，我觉得我之所以对某个细分领域理解得更深，是因为我确实亲身实践过。
Versus, oh, I feel like I understand a niche so much better because I I've sort of done that.
所以从长远来看，我认为这就是这种分歧的原因。
So largely over time, I think that's the reason of that division.
但这并不意味着你不能打造一个独立的产品，完全解决这个问题。
But that is not to say you can build a separate product that completely sort of addresses that.
我觉得Sora，我们之前聊过群聊功能。
I think Sora so we talked about group chat.
Sora也是另一个重要的方面，没错。
Sora too was the other big Yeah.
当然。
Absolutely.
今年从所有消费级AI领域来看，这都是一个巨大的推动力。
Push this year from all the consumer AI
那基本上就像一个TikTok信息流，但所有视频都是AI生成的，你还可以让你的朋友出镜。
Which was basically like a TikTok feed, but all AI generated video and you can make cameos of your friends.
角色扮演是个非常好的选择。
Cameos was a very good bet.
是的。
Yeah.
这是一个很明智的押注。
It was a strong bet.
是的。
Yeah.
但我认为，从留存数据和使用方式来看，它作为创作者工具取得了巨大的成功。
And I but I think what we've seen is, like, in the retention data and how we're seeing it used is it was massively successful as a creator tool.
嗯。
Mhmm.
现在我的信息流里可能有三分之二都是AI生成的垃圾内容，甚至更多。
Like, now my feed is probably two thirds AI slop, if not more.
其中超过50%现在都是Sora生成的，而以前全是VO，偶尔有些夹杂。
And over 50% of it is now Sora, whereas before it was like all VO and some cling.
但它作为社交应用的成功程度不如预期。
But it has not been as successful as like a social app.
消费问题。
Consumption problem.
嗯。
Yeah.
人们发现，一小部分创作者创作了大量内容，然后发布到抖音、Instagram、X、Reddit等平台，在那里内容获得了巨大的传播。
People are like, a small number of creators are creating a ton of content and then bringing it out to, like, TikTok, Instagram, X, Reddit, where it's going massively viral.
但似乎在应用内并没有那么多的消费行为发生。
But it doesn't seem like there's a as much consumption happening in the app.
嗯。
Yeah.
像之前那样多的二次创作和评论，现在没有那么多了。
As much remixing, as much commenting, especially as there was initially.
我觉得
I think
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你知道吗，从一个有趣的角度来看，我认为Sora的竞争对手或类比对象其实并不是TikTok。
You know, in a funny way, the way I think about it is like Sora's competition or analogy isn't actually TikTok.
嗯。
Mhmm.
它实际上是Capco。
It's actually Capco.
从一个有趣的角度来看。
Take a funny way.
这几乎像是一种创意工具吗？
Is it almost like a creative tool?
是的。
Yes.
有意思。
Interesting.
是的。
Yes.
奥利维亚，我觉得，我本来想说，这其实回到了你之前的观点，那就是驱动社交应用的动态，既包含积极的，也包含消极的情感，比如，我发布了一些关于自己的内容，这些内容比较敏感，或者我希望别人觉得我是什么样的，或者别的什么形象。
Olivia, what's I think well, I was gonna say, like, I think it goes back to your earlier point, which is like the kind of motion that drives social apps is both these, positive and negative feelings of like, oh, I'm publishing this thing of myself that's kind of sensitive or that I want people to think it's this or that or this other thing.
所以，这在一定程度上推动了用户在应用上的参与。
And so that's kind of what drives participation on the app.
是的。
Yeah.
地位游戏。
The status game.
是的。
Yeah.
有一点地位感，没错。
A little bit of status Exactly
地位游戏。
the status game.
当内容是AI生成的，而人们知道这并非你作为真实人类的体现时，这种地位游戏就有点失效了。
And when it's AI generated content and people know it's not real, like a real representation of you as a human being, the status game is lost a little bit.
完全失去了。
Absolutely lost.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为，接下来的面子游戏就是你能否 prompts 出非常酷的东西？
I think the status game comes then with can you prompt something very cool?
是的。
Yeah.
但这是另一种类型
But that's a different type
的产品。
of product.
这就是为什么我认为它会在 Twitter 和其他这些现有平台上走红。
And that's why I think it goes viral on like Twitter and all these other existing platforms.
我的相反观点或对 Sora 2 的乐观看法其实是，面子游戏更多是关于幽默，而不是其他任何东西。
I mean, my my sort of counterpoint or bull case for Sora two is actually think the status game was about humor more than anything else.
嗯。
Mhmm.
幽默是懂得如何提示并与文化敏感性相结合的交汇点。
And humor is the intersection of knowing how to prompt and sort of being culturally aware.
嗯。
Yeah.
所以我认为，如果他们在此基础上迭代，这将是一个前所未有的方向。
So I think that if they iterated on that, that's like a direction that nobody has captured before.
嗯。
Yeah.
是的。
Yes.
但如果你能导出这些视频，是的。
But if you can export those videos Yes.
难道不是吗？在TikTok上使用Sora视频，难道不是比Sora本身更出色吗？
Isn't it true that like TikTok with Sora videos on it is strictly better than Sora?
我们讨论过很多次，终极的社交产品应该是消费和创作共存的，或者其输出本身并不原生于其他平台？
We talked about it so much where like the ultimate social product is where consumption and creation both live together or that the output of it is not native to other platforms?
是的，比如抖音、YouTube Shorts？
Yeah, like Tiktok like YouTube shorts?
那么大家对这些挑战者怎么看？
So what do folks think of the challengers?
你知道，我们刚才在谈，说Meta是挑战者，这听起来有点疯狂，但在这个语境下，它确实是；不过我觉得Claude、Perplexity、Grok才是更明显的挑战者。
You know, we're talking about sorry to I mean, it's crazy to talk about meta as a challenger, I guess in this context, they are but I think Claude, Perplexity, Grock are the more obvious names for challengers.
奥利维亚，你怎么看？
Olivia, what's your take?
我超爱Claude。
I love Claude.
我经常和Claude聊天。
I talk to Claude all the time.
Claude已经某种程度上取代了Chachi BT，成为我日常使用的通用大模型。
Claude is somewhat replaced Chachi BT for me as my general LLM.
我觉得Claude的立场很有意思。
I think Claude is opinionated in an interesting way.
我也喜欢Claude，因为我愿意花时间构建AI工作流。
I also love Claude because I'm willing to invest time into building out AI workflows.
我认为Claude今年推出了一系列非常强大的功能，比如产物和技能，你可以设置任务或工作流在一段时间内自动运行。
I think Claude actually launched a lot of really powerful things this year around like artifacts and skills where you can essentially set up tasks or workflows to run over time.
我认为它尚未进入主流的原因是，这些功能的设计初衷面向的是技术人员或工程师。
I do think the reason it hasn't hit the mainstream yet is even the way they built those things is geared towards a technical user or an engineer.
我认为他们已经尽力让创建技能变得简单，但仍然远远不够直观。另一个主流例子是，他们是大厂中第一个推出文件创建、幻灯片创建和编辑功能的，他们将其命名为文件生成与分析之类的东西。
It's I think they tried to make skills as easy as they could to create and it still was not anywhere near easy enough for the Another mainstream example would be they were actually the first of the big players to kind of launch file creation, slide deck creation, editing, and they branded it as like file generation and analysis or something.
这还是一个与SGNA联动的开关功能。
And it was like a toggle feature with SGNA.
一个设置栏之类的界面。
A setting bar of a setting bar or something.
只有极少数人使用它。
Like very few people used it.
是的。
Yeah.
但对我来说，它在完成这类复杂工作方面，仍然是所有产品中最好的。
And yet to me, it's still the best product across all of them at doing that kind of complex work.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我喜欢Claude，但我认为，如果他们想成为真正的主流消费产品，他们需要进一步简化它，是的。
So I love Claude, but I think if they want to be a true mainstream consumer product, they need to dumb it down even more Yeah.
就易用性而言。
In terms of accessibility.
你最近发现的那个关于美国青少年的调查。
There was that survey you found recently of US teens.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为，使用Character AI的美国青少年数量是使用Claude的三倍。
There's I think it was three times more US teens have ever used Character AI than have used Claude.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我觉得这表明Claude是
So I think that shows that like the Claude is
这是一个相当广泛的东西。
such a pretty broad thing.
是的。
Yeah.
Claude在科技人士中很受欢迎。
Claude is beloved amongst tech people.
是的。
Yes.
但在科技人士之外，我认为他们可能难以获得关注度。
But outside of tech people, I think they are maybe struggling to pick up relevance.
不过这很有趣。
It is interesting, though.
比如，如果你看看美学、产品设计和工艺，没错。
Like, if you look at the sort of aesthetics, the product design, the craft Yes.
比如，Anthropic 做的三件事是 MCP 技能、命令行界面和四重代码。
Like, three things that Anthropic did were MCP skills and command line interface quad code.
没错。
Yeah.
这些是三个出人意料的赌注，尤其是四重代码。
Like those are three surprising bets, especially quad code.
你会说命令行界面？真的吗？
Would have said command line interface really?
人们真的希望以这种方式互动吗？
Like is this the way that people want to interact?
我还以为你要说接管航空邮件和思维帽呢。
Thought you were gonna talk about taking over air mail and the thinking cap.
对，还有那个。
Yeah, that too.
思考帽在哪？
Where's the thinking cap?
是的，但这种设计非常高瞻远瞩。
Yeah, but it's sort of very high minded design.
是的，它是
Yeah, it's
有点像与灵感或
sort of like versus inspirational or
也许这是在为他们辩解。
maybe that's apologetic on their behalf.
但我认为它很有主见，而且很棒。
But I think it is it is that it's opinionated, and it's great.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
我确实想听听贾斯汀对Meta和Grok的看法，因为我觉得它们今年都经历了非常有趣的发展。
I do need to hear Justine's take on both Meta and Grock as I feel like they both had fascinating years in this
情况如此。
case.
是的。
Yes.
所以Meta雇佣了所有那些研究人员。
So Meta hired all those researchers.
我认为他们最强的模型实际上并不是面向消费者的模型。
I think their strongest models are actually not consumer facing models.
而是他们的SAM三系列。
It's their SAM three series.
比如用于视频、图像和音频的任何目标分割模型。
So like the segment anything for video, for image, and for audio.
基本上，比如对于视频，你可以上传一段视频，然后用自然语言描述，比如‘找到穿红色T恤的孩子’。
And basically, like, for video, for example, you can upload a video and you can describe a natural language, like find the kid in the red T shirt.
它能够在整个视频中找到并追踪这个人，即使他们时进时出画面。
And it will find and track that person across every the entire video even if they're coming in and out of the frame.
它还能让你应用各种效果，比如模糊他们、删除他们，或者做其他处理。
It will let you apply effects like blurring them out or removing them or whatever.
你可以想象，音频方面也可以类似处理，针对不同的音轨；图像方面则可以针对图像中的不同物体。
And you can imagine a similar thing with audio, with different stems, and then with image with different objects in an image.
我认为明年，我们有望看到基于这些模型构建的令人惊叹的消费级产品。
I think we're gonna see next year, hopefully, some incredible consumer products built on top of those models.
但今天，它们更多是开发者们的试验场，而不是面向消费者的工具。
But today, they're more of a playground for developers than they are a consumer based
考虑到这家公司的基因。
given just like the DNA of the company.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为今年他们推出的最棒的消费级AI功能之一，就是Instagram的AI翻译功能：现在上传Reels时，你可以选择启用翻译，它会克隆你的声音，将其翻译成五种不同语言，并用你的声音进行配音，同时精准匹配口型。
So the one good consumer feature I think they've launched this year with AI is the Instagram AI translations where when you're uploading a reel now, you can opt in to enable translations and it will clone your voice, translate it into five different languages, apply the translation with your voice, so you know, and then redoubt with the lip sync.
哇。
Wow.
所以它基本上让你看起来像是任何语言的母语者。
And so it basically makes it seem like you're a native speaker in whatever language.
所以我希望看到更多这样的功能出现在元宇宙产品中。
So I would love to see more of that stuff come to the meta products.
Grok今年的经历真是疯狂，尤其是那些伴侣功能。
Grok, I think, has had so Grok had a crazy year with, like, the companions Yes.
所有
With all
的
of the
大语言模型和编程方面的进展。
LLM progress and the coding progress.
我认为它们在图像和视频方面的进展，可能是我见过的所有公司中最陡峭的。
I think their image and video progress is probably the steepest slope I've seen of any of the companies.
比如，大概六个月前，他们甚至还没有图像和视频模型。
Like, it was probably like six months ago, they didn't even like have image and video models.
他们推出新功能的速度太快了。
And they're shipping so fast to launch new features.
最初只是图像转视频。
Like, it was initially just image to video.
他们增加了文本转视频功能。
They added text to video.
他们增加了音频功能。
They added audio.
然后他们加入了与语音同步的唇形同步。
Then they added lip sync with speech.
接着他们推出了十五秒的视频。
Then they added fifteen second videos.
他们的进展速度根本没有放缓。
Like, they're just not slowing down the speed of progress.
埃隆已经多次表示，他希望Grok能产生更多互动式视频游戏类型的内容，并希望到明年年底能产出电影。
And Elon has made a bunch of statements about, like, wanting more interactive video game type content out of Grok and wanting movies out of Grok by the end of next year.
所以让我们希望它能继续保持这样的速度。
So let's hope it continues to go at that pace.
你
Do you
觉得这是否是一种钳形攻势？一方面，是基础模型层面的较量，比如我们要登顶Ella Marina排行榜。
feel like it's a pincer movement where, like, on one hand, there's, like, a very infrastructural model layer of, like, let's get to the let's top the Ella Marina charts.
另一方面，则是让我们去Annie。
And then the other one is, like, let's go Annie.
我觉得这有点像一种分化式的策略。
I think It's like a little bit of, like, a bifurcated move.
对。
Right.
比如娱乐和智能方面。
Like, the entertainment and the, like, smart.
当然。
Absolutely.
但娱乐的方式，就像我们说的，与Anthropic和普通大众聊天。
But entertainment in a way that, like, we're talking about, you know, anthropic and chatting to these general population.
但你刚说Character AI更受欢迎。
But you just said character AI is way more popular.
那么，我们该如何看待这一点呢？
So then, like, how do we think about that?
我认为，这非常有趣。
And I think, you know, it's it's a very interesting
是的。
Yes.
在我看来，这是一种非常有趣的战略。
Strategy in my mind.
而且Grok在图像和视频应用中，从很早以前就开始使用模板了，没错。
And Grok, like, in the image and video app, since pretty early on, they've had templates Yeah.
热门的东西。
Of popular things.
比如，你正站在某个地方，突然有一根绳子从天花板上垂下来，你抓住它，它就会把你荡出画面。
Like, you're standing somewhere and suddenly, like, a thing drops a rope drops from the ceiling and you grab onto it and it, like, swings you out of the scene.
一些经常在TikTok和其他平台走红的优秀例子。
Like, some really good ones that go viral regularly on TikTok and other places.
是的。
Yeah.
非常非常有趣。
Really, really interesting.
那么，也许我们把话题从2025年转向2026年。
Well, so maybe switching gears from '25 to '26.
你对明年有什么预测？
What are some of all your predictions for next year?
你认为我们会看到什么？
What do you think we'll see?
硬件、模型、商业，我们还没谈到过。
Hardware, models, commerce, we haven't spoken about yet.
那么，你觉得会发生什么？
So what do we think will play out?
我觉得我知道我们在谈的是消费者方面。
I think I know this is we're talking about consumer.
但对我来说，ChatGPT 中可能被低估的一点是，明年我们可能会看到更多关于企业方面的举措，他们不仅大力推广传统企业许可，还与特定公司合作，甚至为它们训练模型。
But one of the things that's been really maybe underrated for me about ChatGPT that we might see more of next year is they've really made a push into the enterprise, both with the traditional enterprise licenses and then working with specific companies to even like train models for them.
我认为，当我们考虑到大多数消费者只使用一种通用的大型语言模型产品时，而企业使用方面，他们发布了一项大型研究，但企业使用量同比增长了八到九倍。
And I think when we think about the fact that most consumers only use one general LLM product, ChatGee BT enterprise usage, they published a big study, but it's up somewhat like eight or nine X year over year.
是的。
Yeah.
因此，如果我们正进入一个人们必须使用 ChatGPT 来完成公司工作或作为工作一部分的世界。
And so if we're entering a world now where people have to use ChatGBT for their company or as part of their work.
是的。
Yeah.
这可能会真正转化为消费者使用。
That could really translate into consumer usage.
是的。
Yeah.
或者他们可能会成为带有连接器和其他一些投资的办公平台，而其他人则掌控消费者使用场景。
Or maybe they become the workspace with the connectors and some of the other things that they're investing in and someone else owns the consumer consumer use cases.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为为此我们必须谈谈他们在应用方面的布局。
I think to that end we have to talk about their push into apps.
我认为，无论这是否成功，都将成为他们明年最关键的问题。
And I think whether or not that works is gonna be kind of the defining question for them next year.
是的。
Yeah.
而且我认为我们都讨论过应用SDK和他们所称的应用目录的重要性。
And I think that the we've all discussed the importance of the apps SDK and the apps directory as they're calling it.
这将成为面向消费者的巨大新渠道。
And it's gonna be a huge new channel for consumer.
我认为较少被讨论的是，它对企业具有极高的相关性。
I think what's less discussed is it's hyper relevant to enterprise.
嗯。
Mhmm.
我认为ChatGPT的亮点在于它能够跨越多个工具完成一个工作流程。
So I think where ChatGPT shines is where it's able to operate across a number of tools for one workflow.
如果你想想日常工作中那些需要跨越多个工具完成的事情，其实大部分都是这样。
And if you think about the number of things you do in your sort of business day to day that operates across many tools, it's it's most of those things.
嗯。
Yeah.
我认为这将对SaaS生态系统产生非常有趣的影响，而这是我们在应用商店中较少讨论的一部分。
So I think that will have very interesting implications for the SaaS ecosystem, and it's a part of the app store we're not talking about as much.
嗯。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
也许这不算什么预测，但想想2025年，我们谈到了各大实验室的诸多重大进展。
Maybe less of a prediction, but thinking through 2025, and we talked about all the big move from big labs.
从初创公司的角度来看，我认为我们看到的最大趋势之一是应用生成。
And from the startup point, I think one of the biggest trend we've seen is app generation.
我认为现实中，随着各大实验室拥有广泛的分发渠道和用户频繁使用，人们开始意识到：或许存在某种常见类型的产品和应用，我们可以在大实验室产品的框架内帮助你生成它们。
And I think there's a real world where we see the big labs with the distribution and the frequency of usage of people coming in to start saying, look, like maybe there is a common type of product and apps that we could actually help you generate within the confines of the big lab products.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为这是一件有趣的事，当然，回到创意和研究的供应链，这或许就是其中之一。
I think that's like one of the interesting thing, which, you know, again, going back to the supply chain of ideas and research, maybe that's one thing.
而且，这没什么突破性的。
And, again, nothing groundbreaking.
但正如我们所知，吉卜力曾让互联网沸腾。
But as we know, the Ghibli broke the Internet.
我那个对科技一无所知的表亲给我发了一张吉卜力的图片。
My cousin who who knows nothing about tech sent me a Ghibli photo.
好吧，我们别发
Well, let's not send
那就别给你表亲发了。
this to your cousin then.
嗯。
Yeah.
我认为这表明了模板的重要性。
And I think that goes to show that templates matter.
是的。
Yeah.
这种风格很重要。
That style matters.
没错。
Yep.
我觉得视频方面，真的非常棒。
And I think about video and like, it's pretty freaking good.
而且
And
我们可能已经到达这样一个阶段：不再仅仅是BigLabs模型的能力问题，而是风格和模板的问题。
it's possible that we're already at a point that it's not necessarily just about the capability of models of the BigLabs, but the stylistic things, template.
想想TikTok。
Think of TikTok.
大型模型的能力大体上还是相同的音乐、趋势、舞蹈等。
The large capability is largely still the same music, trend, dance, go.
但趋势和形式不断变化，让内容始终保持极高的新鲜感。
Except the trend and format keeps on changing, keeps it extremely fresh.
所以我觉得，真正现实的情况是，再利用团队之类的人可以开始思考如何真正将视频优先的产品融入这些实验室模型中。
So I feel like there's a real world where the repurposer team or what have you can start thinking about ways to actually really build in video first products into these lab models.
我认为成本会降到足够低，让人们愿意尝试，我对此感到非常兴奋。
And I think the cost will go down enough for people to try it out, and I'm excited to see that.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得最让我兴奋的是，沿着这个方向，一切正在变得多模态。
I think what I'm most excited about is sort of along those lines, basically, everything becoming multimodal.
我称之为‘任何输入到任何输出’，最初，尤其是这些图像和视频模型，是你输入一个文本提示，就能得到一张图片或一个视频。
Like, I call it, like, anything in to anything out, which is basically initially, especially with these image and video models, it was you put in a text prompt and you get an image out or a video out.
你以前很难做更多事情，但现在我们开始看到图像编辑模型的进展，比如Nano Banana、Flux，还有新的OpenAI模型，现在你可以输入一张图片，然后得到另一张图片。
You couldn't really do much with And now we started to see this with the image edit models with, like, Nano Banana and with Flux and and with the new OpenAI model where you can put an image in now and get an another image out.
你可以将一张图片与一段文字配对，或者将一张图片与另一个参考图像和模板结合，从而生成另一张图片。
You can put an image in with a text pair in a direction or put an image with the template, another reference image, and get another image out.
当你能输入一个视频并输出图片时，会发生什么？嗯。
What happens when you can put a video in and get images out Mhmm.
这些图片是否与视频相关，或是视频的下一个版本？
That are related to or the the next iteration of the video?
或者你可以输入一个视频和一个关于你想编辑内容的文字提示，从而输出经过编辑的视频。
Or you can put a video in and a text prompt about what you wanna edit and get the edited video out.
根据我与各大实验室的交流，它们中的许多正试图将长期以来在文本推理与智能、大语言模型领域，以及图像和视频方面各自独立的努力整合起来，探索能否打造一个超级模型，能够接收多种类型的内容并生成更丰富的内容。
From my conversations with the labs, a lot of them are trying to basically combine all these largely separate efforts they've had across text reasoning and intelligence, the LLM space, and image and video into, what if we can put merge those all into like a mega model that can take a lot different forms of content and produce much more?
我认为这也将对设计产生巨大影响。
I think it's also gonna have huge implications for like design.
没错。
Yeah.
因为如果你仔细想想，很多设计本质上就是以有趣的方式将图像、文本、视频和其他元素结合起来。
Because if you think about it, a lot of design is combining images with text, with video, with different elements in kind of interesting ways.
没错。
Yeah.
如果从宏观层面来看我的预测，我认为实际上未来会是现有趋势的延续：当我们谈论各大实验室在消费端推出的产品时，它们在模型方面做得很好，在提升像ChatGPT或Gemini这类核心体验的渐进式改进上也做得非常出色。
I guess if I think about like a macro level prediction, I think it's actually gonna be more of the same in that when we talk about what all of the labs have launched in consumer, they've done a great job with models and they've done a great job with incremental things that improve the core experience of using like a ChatGee BT or a Gemini.
没错。
Yeah.
在我看来，我们已经见证了它们推出或尝试过的数十种新产品或新用户界面，比如群聊、Pulse、Atlas、Sora等。
In my opinion, we've gone through dozens of things that they've launched or tried as new consumer products or new consumer interfaces like group chat, like Pulse, like Atlas, like Sora.
谷歌有一长串类似Stitch、Gems、Opal、Doppel的产品，太多了。
Google has had a long tail like Stitch, Gems, Opal, Doppel, tons.
是的。
Yeah.
这些都没怎么成功。
None of those are really working.
没错。
Yep.
我认为这是因为这些公司不再把构建有明确观点的独立消费者界面作为核心能力。
And I think it's because it's not the core competency of these companies anymore to build opinionated standalone consumer UI.
在所有这些产品中，我认为最成功的是Notebook LM。
Out of all of those, I think the product that's working the most is like Notebook LM.
而它只是谷歌尝试或实验过的约20个产品中的一个。
And that's one of like maybe 20 things that Google has tried or experimented with.
所以我认为这对初创公司来说其实非常有利，因为消费类初创公司可以利用不断进步的模型，它们会持续让ChatGPT变得越来越好。
So I think it's actually very positive for startups in that consumer startups and that the models would keep getting better, which the startups can use and they'll keep, you know, they'll make ChatGPT better and better.
但我并不认为ChatGPT会完全垂直整合到所有这些其他出色的使用场景或产品中，初创公司在这方面仍有发展空间。
But I don't necessarily think that ChatGPT, like, verticalizes into all of these other amazing use cases or products, and there's still room for startups to be building there.
我对这一点持肯定态度。
I have a yes and to that.
好的。
Okay.
当然。
Where absolutely.
但当输入和输出都是文本时，没错。
But however, when the input and the output is text Yep.
ChatGPT和Gemini这类产品最擅长的领域就是如此。
Where ChatGPT and Gemini of the world shine the most Mhmm.
无论你深入到什么程度，无论你觉得你的文本输出有多具体，考虑到主流大厂产品的使用频率。
No matter how deeper you go, no matter how specific you think your text output is going to be, essentially given the frequency of the use usage of the main BigLab products.
没错。
Yeah.
我觉得要把这个和那种使用方式剥离会非常困难。
I think it's gonna be really hard to stitch that and get that away from that usage.
没错。
Yep.
如果你的产品主要是文本输入文本输出的话。
If your product is mainly text in text out.
没错。
Yep.
所以我认为你必须在如何找到一个能吸引用户离开的切入点上发挥创意。
So I do think you you have to be creative around what is the angle that you can like go steal people away from.
你知道吗，我很喜欢你用‘有立场’这个词。
You know, I love that you use the word opinionated.
因为我认为，对于实验室来说，尤其是对于大公司来说，他们的优先级总是由他们的推广委员会决定的。
Because I think that for labs, certainly for big tech, and perhaps increasingly for labs, their priorities get set in their promo committee, always.
如果你是一名产品经理，通常都是那些中阶产品经理，我也曾是其中之一，而你的激励机制总是为了获得晋升。
And if you're a PM, it's always the sort of mid career PMs, and I've been one of these and you like the incentives are always to get promoted.
获得晋升的方式是构建一些安全的产品，这些产品能扩展核心指标和核心功能。
And the way to get promoted is to build something safe, that extends a core metric and a core feature.
因此，打造有鲜明立场的产品是管理职业生涯的一种高风险方式，因为它们很可能不会成功，可能会带来诸多法律和合规问题，甚至可能让CEO对你发火。
So building opinionated products is a very risky way to manage your career, you know, because they're probably not going to work, they're probably gonna have a bunch of implications for legal and compliance, and the CEO might yell at you.
所以我只是觉得，大公司结构上太倾向于做增量式改进，而创始人越做有立场的事情，就越有优势。
So I just think that they are so structured to do incremental things, the more founders do opinionated things, the more advantaged they are.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为，我们在这里还没太讨论到的一个关键问题是计算资源，因为实验室在计算资源有限的情况下，面临着一个内在的矛盾：是把资源用于训练模型，还是用于推理。
I think, honestly, the big thing we haven't discussed here too is compute, which is the labs have this inherent tension between there's a limited amount of compute, and they either spend it on, like, training models or they spend it on inference.
即使是推理，也存在分裂：一边是娱乐类的吉卜力用例，另一边是编码智能类用例。
And even with inference, there's this split between like the entertainment Ghibli use cases and the like coding intelligence use cases.
据我了解，XAI可能是唯一一家在计算资源上不受限的模型公司，而其他公司则必须做出非常严肃且重大的抉择：如果我们发布Nano Banana并爆火，可能会拖慢我们正在推进的下一个大型LLM的进度。
I think XAI is probably the only model company that is not bottlenecked on compute from my understanding, whereas the others have to make really like serious and significant calls of like, if we let if we release Nano Banana and go super viral, like it may slow down the next like big LLM we're trying to push forward.
而专注于应用层的初创公司则没有这个问题，因为那里不存在这种资源冲突。
Whereas startups who focus on the app layer don't have that problem because there's no tension there.
嗯。
Yeah.
当然。
Absolutely.
嗯。
Yeah.
我来吧。
I'll go.
我们以前讨论过这个。
We've talked about this before.
我也认为，在某些领域，多模态能力能让你为客户提供更好的方案。
I also think that there are categories in which being multi model is just allows you to deliver a better proposition to the customer.
嗯。
Yeah.
而实验室和大公司始终会坚持仅使用自家的第一方模型。
And the labs and big tech are always gonna be sort of definitely first party model only.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我认为，随着所有模型变得越来越好，也许80%的需求可以通过单一模型满足。
So I think as all the models get better, perhaps 80% of what you need can be received from a single model.
但对于高级用户而言，AI的很大一部分本质上是高级用户的故事。
But for the power users, and so much of AI is a power user story.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
你曾经说过，高级用户就是高级用户，我认为在AI出现之前确实如此。
You you always said that like, well, power users are just power users, and I think that's true in a pre AI world.
是的。
Yeah.
但现在，价值的深度和变现的深度都高得多，也许整个AI领域实际上都是一个高级用户的故事。
But now the kind of depth of value and the depth of monetization is so much higher that maybe all of AI is actually a power user story.
嗯。
Mhmm.
你知道，其他所有人只是流量。
You know, and everyone else is just traffic.
是的。
Yes.
嗯。
Yeah.
这就是为什么我们第一次看到消费类产品实现了超过100%的收入留存率。
Which is why we're also seeing like consumer products for the first time ever have more than a 100% revenue retention.
是的。
Yes.
嗯。
Yeah.
这正在区分消费AI领域中优秀、卓越和非凡的产品。
And that's separating the good from the great from the exceptional in consumer AI world.
需要明确的是，它们通常在订阅费之外还会根据使用量收费。
And to be clear how that happens is they charge for usage often in addition to subscription.
因此，如果你一个月内使用的量超过了订阅所包含的配额，就需要额外付费。
So you can use beyond whatever your quota is for the month given your subscription and pay more.
要么升级到更高层级，要么直接购买积分，没错。
It's either upgrade of the tier or actually buying tokens Yeah.
或者多买一些，这才是关键区别所在。
Or more It's that's what differentiates it.
比如，如果你在AI出现之前告诉我，我们看到一家消费类公司有100%以上的留存率和收入，
Like, you know, if you told me pre AI, we see a consumer company with 100 plus retention and money.
我会说，
I'm like that.
这完全说不通。
That doesn't make any sense.
这合理吗？
Does that compute?
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
并非故意双关。
No pun intended.
没错。
Exactly.
好吧，各位，也许我们先从具体的推荐开始吧。
Well, guys, okay, maybe let's talk about start with specific recommendations.
比如，听完这个播客后，人们应该下载哪些产品或使用模型的哪些功能？
Like after this pod, what are the products people should download or the features of the models?
大家今天应该使用什么？
What should folks be using today?
我觉得在多模态方面，有一个非常被低估的产品，大家应该去试试，不是因为每天都会用，而是因为它展示了将智能体、图像和文本结合时所能实现的可能性，那就是Pomelli。
I I guess on the multimodal point, I think one really underhyped product that people should check out, not because they'll use it every day, but because it shows sort of what is possible when you combine, like an agent with image with text is Pomelli.
这是一个谷歌实验室的产品，你输入你企业的网址，它会派一个代理访问网站，提取所有产品和品牌图片，总结它认为你的品牌风格、品牌理念以及目标客户群体。
So this is like the Google Labs product where you put in the URL of your business, and it has an agent go to the website, pull all of the product and brand photos, summarize what it thinks your brand's aesthetic is, what it stands for, what kind of customers it's targeting.
然后它会为你生成三个不同的广告活动。
And then it will generate three different ad campaigns for you.
它不仅生成文案，还会生成类似Instagram帖子的内容。
And it will generate not only the text, but it will generate like the Instagram posts.
它会生成宣传单。
It will generate the flyer.
它会生成你的产品图片，并根据它对你的客户的理解，将产品放置在它认为合适的位置。
It will generate like the the photo of your product in this, you know, whatever wherever it thinks it should be based on your customer.
这是一个非常酷的产品。
And very cool product.
我认为，它很难在谷歌内部成为一个独立的大型产品，但它展示了未来的一种可能：当代理与生成模型结合，而这些模型对上下文有图像或视频模型通常不具备的深刻理解时，会发生什么。
Would be hard to become a giant standalone product within Google, I think, but show sort of the future of what happens if we combine agents with generation models that have sort of really deep understanding of context that an image model or a video model normally wouldn't have.
不过，这些是初创公司的产品。
Startup products, though.
你有最喜欢的初创公司吗？哦，初创公司。
Do you have a favorite Oh, startup startup.
在创意工具领域。
In creative tool.
有。
Yes.
在创意工具领域？
In creative tool?
有。
Yes.
我认为，作为韩国的投资人，这可能有偏见，但我觉得他们确实做得非常出色，成为在每种模态下使用最佳模型的首选平台，同时还在这些模型之上构建了更多界面。
I think I I mean, we're investors in Korea, so this is biased, but I think they they've they've really done an exceptional job of being the best place to use every model or every quality model across every modality and also building more of the interface on top of these models.
比如，我现在更喜欢在Kria上使用Nano Banana Pro，因为Kria允许你保存元素——这些元素本质上是角色、风格或对象，你可以给它们打标签以便重新提示，而不用反复把同一张图片参考拖进Nano Banana。
Like, I now prefer to use Nano Banana Pro on Kria because Kria allows you to save elements, which are essentially characters or styles or objects that you can like at tag to re prompt versus having to drag the same image reference into Nano Banana over and over again.
这是个不错的例子。
That's a good one.
我想这属于对抗推销公司的创业类别。
I suppose it falls under a startup category against shilling companies.
但说实话，我用得最多的其实是Level Labs阅读器。
But, you know, the one that I use the most is actually a Level Labs reader.
原因是我们看到了播客的爆炸式增长，我认为这背后有原因。
And the reason is we've seen an explosion in podcasts and there's, I think, a reason for that.
对吧？
Right?
人们现在更加忙碌了。
People are a lot more on the go.
我认为，我们阅读文字的能力正在随着时间推移而下降。
The reading capability of us reading, I think is going down over time.
所以，别去对抗现实了。
And so, you know, let's not fight the reality.
让我们接受它吧。
Let's embrace it.
好吧。
And okay.
所以，我们干脆找些书面材料，把它们转成音频来听吧。
So then, like, let's actually find a written material translate into listening and and do that.
我以前是Pocket这类工具的重度用户。
And I used to be a power user of tools like Pocket.
你知道，我没时间读完所有我想读的东西。
You know, I didn't have time to read everything that I wanted to read.
这是一种收藏行为。
And it's a saving behavior.
对吧？
Right?
你到处收藏那些你最终想消费的内容。
You're you're going around and saving all the things you eventually want to consume.
但我现在做的其实差不多，我会去找所有我想读的东西，然后要么保存为PDF，要么放到11reader上。
But I think what I do now is similar where I go get all the things I want to read, and I just put it I either PDF it or put it on 11 reader.
而且偶尔当我散步时，如果只有三四分钟的时间，我就会以1.5倍或两倍速听其中一篇，快速了解主要内容。
And just like once in a while when I'm gonna walk and I have like three, four minute, you know, 1.5 x speed or two x speed and just listen to one of these and get the gist of it.
所以我觉得，作为普通人，这样利用碎片时间是个不错的方法。
So I think that's been a good way to use a little bit of time as a sort of semi normal person.
是的。
Yeah.
首先，我喜欢这个问题，因为我强烈认为，最快掌握AI的方式就是大量尝试各种产品，你会很快形成自己的观点。
Well, first of all, I love this question because I am strongly opinionated that by far the best way to get up to speed on AI is just to try a ton of products and you get opinionated really quickly.
没错。
Yeah.
珍妮特和我整个十二月都在Twitter上每天发布一个全新的消费者产品，供大家体验。
Justine and I actually for the whole month of December are on Twitter publishing one new consumer product a day for people to check out.
这是一种方法。
So that's one way.
我再介绍另外三种我认为非常相关或有趣的方法，人们可以把它们融入自己的工作流程中。
I'll name three others that I think are super maybe relevant or interesting that people can plug into their workflows.
第一个是用于制作幻灯片的Gamma。
So one would be Gamma for slide deck generations.
你可以从文本提示生成幻灯片，也可以从文档生成幻灯片。
You can go text prompt to slide deck, you can go document to slide deck.
我什么都用它。
I use it for everything.
此外，幻灯片支持灵活的尺寸，你再也不用在Google幻灯片里逐像素调整来适应固定版式了，这很棒。
Also, slides are flexible sizes so you're no longer like editing every little pixel in your Google slides to get it to fit into one which is great.
Granola用于笔记记录。
Granola for note taking.
假期期间你可能没有会议，但到了新年就不同了。
You might not have any meetings over the holidays, but in the new year.
而且你开的会议越多，它就越强大，因为它能记住你之前讨论过的内容。
And it just gets better and better the more meetings you have on it because it has the context of what you talked about before.
最后，我还是要推荐大家试试评论浏览器。
And then lastly, I'm still gonna plug try the comment browser.
如果你想尝试一个AI原生的工作空间，我认为这是最容易上手的选择之一。
If you wanna try kind of an AI native workspace, I think that's one of the most accessible ones to start with.
对我来说，我整个一年都沉迷于编程和AI代码。
I mean, for me, I've spent my whole year obsessed with coding and AI code.
这真的非常有趣。
It's just been so tremendously fun.
顺便说一下，布莱恩会持相反观点，认为大型实验室或大科技公司会在应用生成领域胜出。
By the way, Brian would take the other side of your argument that the big labs or big tech will win an app generation.
我认为它们缺乏像Opal这样产品所具备的专注力，这些产品发布时只是悄无声息地消失了。
I think they just lack the focus products like Opal have been, you know, released with a whimper.
而且它们只依赖单一模型。
And they're one model only.
我并没有说它们会赢。
I didn't say they will win it.
我认为我们会看到它们在做这件事。
I think that we will see them doing it.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
我觉得这是对的。
I think that's true.
但我认为在纯消费者层面，Wabi 确实非常有趣且功能强大。
But I think for the pure consumer side, of course, Wabi is really fun and really capable.
我认为他们正在为应用生成设置正确的约束，从而让你获得令人满意的实用成果。
And I think they are they're creating the right sort of constraints on app generation so that you can get a really satisfying functional result.
我认为到目前为止，应用生成领域有过分承诺的现象，这打击了早期用户。
And I think so far, there's been a lot of over promising in app generation, which has discouraged the early users.
另外，如果你还没试过 GPT-52、Codex 或 Cursor，值得一试。
Also think if you haven't tried, you know, GPT five two, and codex or in cursor, it's worth trying.
即使是非技术人员，也会觉得非常惊艳。
Even for non technical people, it's just amazing.
认为自己几乎太技术化反而是一种限制，因为你对这些模型能做什么已经有了先入为主的想法，而它们实际上能做更多。
Think almost being technical is sort of a constraint because you have a pre existing idea for what these models can do, and they can do a lot more.
我越来越听到有人在Cursor中做知识工作、写文章，而不仅仅是写代码。
And I'm hearing increasingly about people doing knowledge work and writing essays in cursor instead of just writing code.
哇。
Wow.
我年底要做的一件事，就是跟上TikTok上流行的一个趋势：有人会问‘今年我最疯狂的一句话是什么’。
Just one thing I'm going to do at the end year year end, it's just to plug in like a popular trend I've seen on TikTok where there are people who said what is a most unhinged thing I said this year.
好的。
Okay.
它实际上会回顾你所说过的所有内容。
And it actually does a review of of of all the things that you said.
但我觉得类似的做法也会很好。
But I think similarly, it'll be a good thing.
我打算在年底做这件事。
I'm going to do this at the year end.
告诉我如何在明年过上更好的生活。
Tell me how to live a better life next year.
嗯。
Yeah.
给我一些真实、坦率的意见和方向，我觉得会很有帮助。
Give me give me actual unvarnished opinions and some direction that I think it'll be helpful.
我喜欢这个想法。
I love that idea.
我要过更糟糕的生活。
I'm going for a worse life
明年。
next year.
太棒了。
Fantastic.
让我们彻底走DGN路线吧，伙计们。
Let's go full DGN guys.
有什么总结性的想法吗？
Any closing thoughts?
那并不是
That wasn't
我的意思是，我们目前正在积极投资消费类公司。
I mean, the obvious one is we are very actively investing in consumer companies.
而且我真的认为很多人都是这么说的。
And and I genuine I think a lot of people say this.
我真心相信，这些模型已经达到了足够的质量水平，足以在此基础上构建真正可扩展的应用程序。
I genuinely believe that the models have gotten to the level of quality that you can build a real scalable app on top of them.
Wabi 就是一个很好的例子。
Wabi is a great example of this.
因此，我们希望2026年会成为消费领域建设者的重大年份，而不仅仅是消费者作为产品的使用者。
And so the hope is 2026 will be a huge year for consumer builders, not just like consumers consumers being consumers of a product.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yes.
谢谢大家度过一个充满乐趣的消费与人工智能之年。
Well, thank you all for a super fun year in consumer and AI.
我们明年还会回来，
We'll be back with more next year,
大家圣诞快乐。
and Merry Christmas, guys.
到此结束。
This is a wrap.
是的。
Yeah.
节日快乐。
Happy holidays.
节日快乐。
Happy holidays.
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Follow us on X at a16z, and subscribe to our Substack at a16z.substack.com.
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