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在人工智能时代，创意人士的经济模式会是什么样的？
What will be the economic models for creative people in an AI world?
不要阻止不可避免的趋势，即技术的进步。
Don't stop the inevitable, which is the technology progressing.
拥抱它，并重新思考这些模式。
Lean into it and rethink those models.
是的。
Yeah.
在我看来，这是这一交叉领域最令人兴奋的方向。
That to me is the most exciting area for this intersection.
在过去几年里，人工智能一直是人们热议的话题。
In the last few years, AI has been the talk of the town.
创业者们已经转向了新的方向。
Founders have pivoted.
现有企业也投入了大量资本到新项目中。
Incumbents have plowed capital into new projects.
风险投资公司已经彻底颠覆了他们的投资理念。
VCs have upended their investing theses.
所有这些都属于一场竞赛的一部分，旨在抓住这几十年来最大的平台变革，以及新一代互联网所带来的机遇。
All of this is part of the race to capitalize on what seems like the biggest platform shift in decades, and equally a new generation of the Internet.
这一代技术不仅为我们提供了重新思考过去的机会，而且由于新硬件、加密货币等并行技术路径的交汇，我们能够以前所未有的方式构建事物。
This generation is not only an opportunity to rethink the past, but with parallel technology tracks from new hardware to crypto intersecting, we can build things we never could before.
那么，在如此多事物被颠覆的情况下，这一波浪潮的经济模式会是什么？
So what will the economic model of this wave be when so much is being upended?
你去他们的网站看看，它们会直接给你答案。
You go to their websites, they give you an answer.
那么，如果其他十亿个网站得不到流量，会发生什么？这就是问题所在，对吧？
And so what happens to the billion other websites if they aren't getting traffic is the question, right?
我们什么时候才能超越这一代技术的拟物化阶段，去创造全新的用户行为？
When will we move past the skeuomorphic phase of this generation to building net new behaviors?
加密货币能否成为对抗人工智能集中化趋势的制衡力量，以应对对更多数据、更多算力和更复杂模型的需求？
And could crypto be the counterbalance to the centralizing gravity of AI, targeting more data, more compute, and more complex models?
我们正走向一个拥有五个大型系统的世界，我们不妨称之为三到五个主要的AI系统。
Where we're headed is a world where you have five big systems, let's call it, three to five big AI systems.
今天我们邀请到十六周资本的增长期普通合伙人大卫·乔治和十六周资本的加密货币创始合伙人克里斯·迪克森，来与我们深入探讨这一切及相关话题。
Joining us to discuss all this and more are a sixteen z growth general partner David George and a sixteen z crypto founding partner Chris Dixon.
去年，当然，克里斯出版了他的著作《阅读》。
Last year, of course, Chris wrote his book, Read.
《写作》。
Write.
《拥有》，构建互联网的下一个时代，书中探讨了区块链如何最终让我们回归互联网最初的愿景——一个去中心化、民主化的创新、连接与自由网络。
Own, building the next era of the Internet, all about how blockchains might finally bring us back to the early promise of the Internet, a decentralized democratic network of innovation, connection, and freedom.
那么，不浪费时间了，我们直接开始吧。
So without further ado, let's dive in.
顺便说一下，如果你喜欢这一集，它来自我们的AI革命系列。
By the way, if you did like this episode, it comes straight from our AI revolution series.
如果你错过了该系列之前的任何一集，包括嘉宾如AMD首席执行官Lisa Su、Anthropic联合创始人Dario Amodei，以及Databricks、Waymo、Figma等公司的创始人，请前往a16z.com/airevolution查看。
And if you missed any of the previous episodes of that series, with guests like AMD CEO Lisa Su, Anthropic co founder Dario Amade, and the founders behind companies like Databricks, Waymo, Figma, and more, head on over to a 16z.com/airevolution.
提醒一下，此处的内容仅用于信息目的，不应被视为法律、商业、税务或投资建议，也不应用于评估任何投资或证券，且并非针对任何十六号资本基金的投资者或潜在投资者。
As a reminder, the content here is for informational purposes only, should not be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice, be used to evaluate any investment or security, and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a sixteen z fund.
请注意，十六号资本及其关联方可能也持有本播客中讨论的公司的投资。
Please note that a sixteen z and its affiliates may also maintain investments in the companies discussed in this podcast.
如需更多详情，包括我们的投资链接，请访问 a16z.com/disclosures。
For more details, including a link to our investments, please see a six and c dot com slash disclosures.
克里斯，感谢你来到这里。
Chris, thanks for being here.
是的。
Yeah.
谢谢你的邀请。
Thanks for having
me。
me.
和你聊天总是很愉快。
Always love hanging out with you.
显然你大部分时间都投入到加密货币中，你通常如何看待加密货币和人工智能的互动？
Obviously you spend most of your time How in crypto do you generally see crypto and AI interacting?
是的，我的总体观点是，技术浪潮往往成对或成三出现。
Yeah, mean, so I think first of all, my kind of meta view is that the technology waves tend to come in pairs or triples.
十五年前是移动、社交和云计算。
Fifteen years ago it was mobile social cloud.
我经常对创业者讲这个观点。
And I'm always giving this speech to entrepreneurs.
它们往往会相互强化。
They tend to reinforce each other.
移动技术让计算用户从数亿增长到数十亿。
And so mobile was what took computing from hundreds of millions to billions of people.
社交应用是吸引用户的关键应用。
Social was the killer app that hooked them.
而云计算则是使其成为可能的基础设施，对吧？
And cloud was the infrastructure that made it possible, right?
所以你不可能真正同时拥有这三者。
And so you couldn't really have all three of them.
我记得那时候人们还在争论哪个更好。
And I remember back then people having debates, which were better.
结果发现它们都很好。
It turned out they were all better.
而且它们都是必需的。
And they were all required.
它们都是必需的。
They were all required.
所以我认为AI、加密货币，以及可能的新设备——比如机器人、自动驾驶汽车、VR等等——是另外一组重要的趋势。
And so I think of that with AI crypto and maybe new devices as the other kind of probably robotics and self driving cars and VR and things.
我认为这些是当前正在发生的三件有趣的事。
I think of those as the three interesting things going on.
我认为它们彼此互补，协同作用。
And I think they all kind of complement each other and work together.
这是一种构建互联网服务的新方式，一种构建网络的新方法，它具有多种不同的特性，我认为这些特性在很多方面都有益处，并且能够实现以前无法做到的一些事情。因此，很多人把它和比特币、模因币之类的东西联系起来，但这根本不是我对它的理解，也不是我认为在这个领域工作的聪明人对它的理解。
It's a new way to architect internet services, a new way to build networks that has a bunch of different properties, which I argue are beneficial for a bunch of reasons and can do a set of things you couldn't do before And so I think a lot people think of it as Bitcoin or Meme Coins or something and so that's fundamentally not what it is to me or I think to the kind of smart people working in the space.
它与人工智能在许多不同方面都有交集。
There's many different ways in which it intersects with AI.
首先，这是我们大量投资的一个方面，就是利用这种新架构来构建人工智能系统。
So the first way, is something we've invested a bunch in, is just using this new architecture to build AI systems.
因此，举个例子，我认为我们公司最近一直在讨论的关于人工智能未来的核心问题之一是：人工智能将主要由少数几家公司控制，还是由广泛的社区共同掌控？
And so for example, one of the core questions I think, we've just talked a lot at this firm about the future of AI is to what extent will AI be controlled by a small set companies or controlled by a broad community?
这里最直接的问题是：它是开源的吗？
The obvious first question there is, is it open source?
是的。
Yes.
世界变得如此封闭，这让我感到非常震惊。
It's negatively shocked me how closed source the world has become.
十年前，一切都被开源并发表在论文中，但后来全都关闭了，变得私有化了。
Ten years ago, everything was open and put in papers and then it all shut down and was, you know, closed.
他们说这是出于安全原因。
And they said this was for safety reasons.
我认为这恰好对他们非常有利
I think it just happened to be very good for their
我只是觉得这是可防御性。
I just think it's Defensibility.
有利的商业原因。
Beneficial business reasons.
是的。
Yeah.
我
I
我不相信安全这种说法。
don't believe the safety thing.
但确实，幸运的是，像Llama、Flux、Mistral这样的项目都是开源的。
But yeah, You know, thankfully there's these ones like Lama and Flux and Mistral and things who are open source.
我担心这有点脆弱，因为首先，我不确定他们中的很多是否真的公开了权重。
I worry that's a little fragile because first of all, I don't know, a lot of them don't put their weights open.
这真的算开放吗？
Is it really open?
其中一部分是开放的。
Some of it is open.
比如数据管道就没有开放。
Like the data pipeline's not open.
这真的可复现吗？
Is it really reproducible?
他们明天就可以换掉它。
They could switch it tomorrow.
这些模型每个月都在进步。
These models get better every month.
如果他们不开始探索新前沿，我不知道该怎么办。
And if they don't start doing the new frontier, I don't know.
所以它是
So it's
非常依赖一家大型公司。
like It's very heavily dependent on one large company.
是的。
Yeah.
因此，我们投资了一套为AI栈构建的开放服务栈，这些服务在不同层级都是开放的。
So one of the things we've invested in is a stack of internet services that are built for the AI stack but open services at different layers.
举个例子，有一个叫Jensen的项目，正在构建一个类似众包计算层的系统。
So as an example, there's a project called Jensen which is building, think of it as crowdsourced compute layer.
作为初创公司，你可以提交一个超出你自身计算能力的任务，它会通过一个类似Airbnb的网络，连接拥有闲置算力的人，由网络来管理供需。
And so you as a startup can submit a job that goes beyond the compute you control and it goes out to a network kind of Airbnb style of people that have excess compute and the network manages that supply and demand.
嗯。
Mhmm.
对吧？
Right?
那就是经济账本。
And that's the economic ledger.
是的。
Yeah.
这就是你所面对的。
That's what you're running against.
是的。
Yeah.
这是一个例子。
That's one example.
另一个是名为Story Protocol的项目，它提供了一种全新的知识产权登记方式。
Another one is one called story protocol which is a new way to think about registering intellectual property.
你可以创建图像、视频或音乐作品，然后将其注册在区块链上，区块链会记录该媒体内容及其相关权利。
And so you can create image or video or piece of music and then you register it on a blockchain which keeps a record of the piece of media and the rights around it.
它利用现有的版权法，因此区块链记录实际上反映了为国际适用而设计的法律协议。
It uses existing copyright law so it actually so like the blockchain record mirrors a legal agreement that's been crafted to work internationally.
然后任何人都可以参与，只要他们遵守你设定的条款，你可能会说：你可以使用这个作品，可以进行混音，可以创作衍生作品。
And then anyone can come along and as long as they abide by your terms that you set, you might say something like you can use this, you can remix it, can create derivative works.
但你获得的任何收入，都必须支付
But any revenue you make, have to pay
我10%
me 10%
随便吧。
whatever.
这就是
That's the
你来设定条款。
You set the terms.
但这创造了一种开放的市场环境——现在你必须打电话给某家公司，试图谈一笔业务合作，诸如此类的事情。
But that creates a sort of open marketplace where anyone right now you have to call up some company and try to do a BD deal and this and that.
因此，最终人们要么干脆盗用，要么干脆不干。
And so you end up having this kind of thing where people either basically steal it or don't do it.
或者他们的规模足够大，可以达成交易之类的。
Or they're scaled enough to make a deal or something.
比如OpenAI去找Shutterstock，付给他们一亿美元。
Like you have OpenAI going to Shutterstock and they pay them a $100,000,000.
但这真的只适用于顶尖的大公司。
But this is really just for the very high end companies.
这创造了一种广泛的民主型资源，让任何小型创作者都能自行设定条款。
This is creating a broad democratic kind of resource where anyone can, a small creator can set the terms.
然后理想情况下，你所创造的——这在区块链世界中是一个反复出现的主题——就是我们所说的可组合性。
And then ideally what you create, and this is a recurring theme in the blockchain world is you have this kind of what we call composability.
我认为这是开源软件成功背后的核心力量。
I think the kind of core force behind the success of open source software.
我的意思是，抛开这个不谈，开源软件无疑是过去八十年中最成功的开源计算运动。
I mean, forget this, but open source software, certainly the most successful open computing movement in the last, you know, eighty years.
但Linux从九十年代的0%市场份额，发展到了如今可能90%以上的市场份额。
But Linux went from 0% market share in the nineties to probably, I don't know what, 90 plus percent market share today.
而这很大程度上得益于我们所说的可组合性，即许多不同的人不断为系统贡献小部件，使整个系统像维基百科这样的集体知识体系一样不断变强。
And a lot of that's because of what we call composability, which is basically all these different people coming along and contributing little pieces to the system and the system collectively getting much better in the same way that Wikipedia is a collective knowledge system.
因此，像Story Protocol这样的东西，能让媒体产生同样的乐高积木效应。
And so something like Story Protocol, you get the same kind of Lego brick effect with media.
有人来创造一个角色，另一个人创造另一个角色，再有人将它们重新混搭，还有其他人……
So someone comes along and they create a character, someone else creates another character, someone else remixes them, someone else.
然后你可以使用任何AI工具。
And then you can use whatever AI tool.
你可以使用生成式AI来创作你的故事。
You can create generative AI and you can create your story.
我创建了一个新的超级英雄宇宙，使用了这些其他的乐高积木。
I create a new superhero universe where I use these other LEGO bricks.
只要资金能回流，那就都没问题。
As long as the money kind of waterfalls back, that's all okay.
我认为这是一个非常棒的愿景，既让人们能够拥抱这些新工具，又为创意人士提供了经济模型。
I think it's a really great vision that both allows for people to embrace these new tools, but also provides an economic model for creative people.
我认为这对我来说是我们投资中一个反复出现的主题。
I think that's a, to me, that's a recurring theme in our investing.
问题是，在人工智能时代，创作者的经济模式会是什么？
It's like, what will be the economic models for creative people in an AI world?
不要阻止不可避免的趋势，即技术的进步。
Don't stop the inevitable, which is the technology progressing.
顺应它，并重新思考这些模式。
Lean into it and rethink those models.
对我来说，这是这一交叉领域最令人兴奋的方向。
That to me is the most exciting area for this intersection.
你从那些创作者创作内容时却独占100%收入的社交网络公司，
You go from social networking companies which keep 100% of revenue for themselves when creators create stuff
是的。
Yeah.
转变为一种有望让创作者自行设定并获取前期收益的模式。
Effectively to something where hopefully the creator can capture an upfront amount that they set.
然后，理想情况下，可组合性能够促进更高层次的创造力。
And then ideally, the composability allows for actually more creativity built on top.
没错。
That's right.
因为经济激励确实如此。
Because of the economic That's right, incentive sure.
是的。
Yeah.
我们正看到人们在众包模型评估方面做一些有趣的事情。
We're seeing people do interesting stuff with kind of crowdsourced model evaluation.
可以把这一切看作是所有数据层面的事情。
Just think of it as all the data side of things.
比如你需要更多数据，而加密货币为我们设计新的激励机制带来了突破。
Like you need more data and we have this crypto as a breakthrough in new ways to design incentive systems.
所以你把这两者结合起来，思考如何利用新的激励机制为这些人工智能系统获取更多数据，对吧？
And so you combine that and you say, how can you use new incentive systems to get more data for these AI systems, right?
数据可以作为输入，也可以用于模型评估，或者其他任何用途。
Data can either be an input or it can be a model evaluation or whatever it might be.
这有点像Scale AI这样的公司所做的，但采用的是众包方式，而不是集中式方式。
So it's kind of what these companies like Scale AI do but in a crowdsourced way instead of a centralized way.
有一个由萨姆·阿尔特曼共同创立的项目，我们正在投资，叫做WorldCoin，其核心理念是：在一个AI能够复制人类和内容的世界里，我们需要一种方式来证明自己是人类。
There's a project that's co founded by Sam Altman that we're investing in called WorldCoin where the thesis is that in a world where AI can replicate humans and content, we need a way to prove you're human.
对吧？
Right?
而证明自己是人类的最佳方式，是通过区块链进行密码学验证。
And the best way to prove you're human is cryptographically using a blockchain.
因此，他们的想法是建立一个激励系统，让人们注册参与。
And so the idea is they have an incentive system to get people to sign up.
最初，他们使用的是一个扫描虹膜的装置。
And originally it was this orb that scanned your eyeballs.
有些人觉得这更有争议。
Some people it was more controversial.
他们现在有了其他方式来识别你的身份，比如使用护照和其他证件。
They now have systems where you can identify yourself in other ways including your passport and other things.
但核心理念是，你证明了自己的身份后，就能获得存储在区块链上的加密证明，然后可以用它来使用多种服务。
But the idea is you prove who you are, you get cryptographic proof found on a blockchain and then you can use that for a bunch of different services.
想想一些简单的例子。
Think of very simple examples.
想想验证码。
Think of captchas.
现在，你必须去完成这些拼图游戏，我觉得它们变得越来越复杂，可能已经不
Today, you have to go and play these puzzles, which I think have gotten so complicated and probably Not
再能防住AI了。
AI proof anymore.
我觉得它们已经不再能防住AI了。
I don't think they're AI proof anymore.
它们可能只能防住人类了。
They may be human proof.
我很难通过很多验证码。
I I have trouble with a lot of them.
但用这类系统替代这些验证码，以及其他那些笨拙的防欺诈系统，就能实现真正的加密验证。
But replace those with set of systems like that and other kinds of clunky fraud systems have an actual cryptographic thing.
所以我实际上有一个代码。
So I have a code essentially.
这就是密码学的工作原理。
This is how cryptography works.
这个代码证明了我是人类。
And that code proves that I'm a human.
然后你还可以在此基础上叠加其他需要验证的内容。
And then you can layer onto that other kinds of things you prove on top.
所以我觉得有很多可能性。
So I think there's a bunch.
因此，基础设施层可以将当今集中式的AI系统，通过代码和服务的方式去中心化。
So there's the infrastructure layer of like take AI systems that exist today in a centralized way and decentralize them both in terms of code and services.
有一些以前无法实现的新事物，比如机器对机器的支付。
There's new things you couldn't do before like machine to machine payments.
还有一些非常遥远的可能性，我觉得最令人兴奋的是：在这个世界里，会出现哪些新的商业模式？
And then there's these sort of really far off things that I find the most exciting which are like what are new business models in this world?
是的。
Yeah.
你在ChatGPT爆发后不久提醒过我一件事，你说：互联网的契约可能面临破裂。
One of the things that you pointed out to me right after the chat GPT moment is you're like, hey, have the potential for sort of a break in the pact of the Internet.
哦，对，没错。
Oh yeah, yeah.
我觉得这非常有趣。
Which I think is a super fascinating
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
这本书的末尾有一章讲到这个。
There's a chapter on this in the book toward the end.
我称之为一种新的契约。
I call it a new covenant.
所以，你可以想想激励机制。
So like you think about the incentive system.
互联网成功的主要原因之一，是它拥有一个非常巧妙的激励机制，对吧？
One of the main reasons the internet succeeded is it had a very clever incentive system, right?
你怎么能让五十亿人自愿加入这个系统，而不需要一个中央权威来命令他们，对吧？
Like how do you get 5,000,000,000 people to sort of opt into the system without having a central authority tell them to, right?
这正是因为互联网的激励机制。
This is because of the incentives of the internet.
特别是在过去二十年左右，出现了一种我称之为平台（尤其是社交媒体和搜索引擎）与创建网站并相互链接的用户之间的经济契约。
And specifically there's been a kind of what's emerged over the last twenty ish years is I call it an economic covenant between the kind of the platforms, specifically social networks and search engines and all the people that create websites that essentially those link to.
对吧？
Right?
而且
And
所以，如果你是一个旅游网站、食谱网站，或者一个拥有插画的艺术家，你与谷歌之间就存在一种隐含的契约。
so if you're a travel website or a recipe website or a artist who has illustrations, there's an implicit covenant you have let's say with Google.
对吧？
Right?
你对谷歌说：你可以抓取我的内容、将我纳入索引，并在你的搜索引擎中显示摘要，只要你能为我带来流量即可。
Which is you say to Google, it's okay if you crawl my content and you index me and you show snippets in your search engine if you send me traffic back.
这就是互联网的发展方式。
This is how the internet has evolved.
对吧？
Right?
那你为什么想要流量回来呢？
And why do you want traffic back?
因为你有一个商业模式。
Because you have some business model.
也许这是一个免费网站。
Maybe it's a free site.
也许这是一个基于广告的网站。
Maybe it's an ad based site.
也许是一个订阅制网站。
Maybe subscription based site.
但不管怎样，你总能通过流量赚钱。
But whatever it is, somehow you have a way to make money on traffic.
这是一种共识，对吧？
There's an understanding, right?
是的。
Mhmm.
而且这是互利的。
And it's mutually beneficial.
互利的。
Mutually beneficial.
偶尔这种情况也被打破过。
And occasionally that has been breached.
所以谷歌有一个叫‘一键置顶’的功能，他们会把你的内容直接拿走展示出来。
So there's a thing Google does called one boxing which is they would take your content and just put it.
我长期担任Stack Overflow的董事会成员，他们就是这样做的：当你在Stack Overflow上搜索某个问题时。
I was on the board of Stack Overflow for a long time and they would do this where they would take you type in a thing for Stack Overflow.
你不需要点击链接，他们直接把答案显示给你，从而取消了点击行为。
Instead of clicking on it, they would just show you the answer and remove the click.
他们对维基百科也这么做过。
They've done that with Wikipedia.
他们对歌词网站也这么做过。
They did it with Lyric sites.
是的。
Yeah.
但他们对Yelp也这么做过。
But they did with Yelp.
他们确实这么做了。
They did
而且人们对此非常不满，或者你知道的，比如在Yelp上，他们会把自家内容置顶。
it And people get very or or you know, or they with Yelp, they promote their own content on top.
所以当时出现了一些问题，但还是奏效了。
And so there were issues, but it worked.
现在，在AI时代，问题是：如果你有这些聊天机器人，当你输入‘我想要一张插图’，它直接生成一张插图。
Now the question in an AI world, right, is if you have these chatbots, if you go and you say, I want an illustration, and it just generates an illustration.
或者你问‘我想要一个食谱’，它就直接给你一个食谱。
Or you say, I want a recipe, it gives you a recipe.
顺便说一句，这可能是更好的用户体验。
This may be a better user experience, by the way.
我并不反对。
I'm not against it.
我认为最终这对互联网用户来说可能是更好的。
I think it's probably better in the end for the users of the Internet.
但问题是，这破坏了之前的约定。
But the problem is it breaks the covenant.
对吧？
Right?
他们获取了这些数据。
They took this data.
这些系统是用在先前约定下上传到互联网的数据训练的。
These systems were trained on data that was put on the Internet under the prior covenant.
前提是他们能获得回流的流量。
Under the premise that they're gonna get traffic back.
没错。
That's right.
而且他们可以从中盈利，没错。
And they can monetize it That's right.
这正是当初的前提。
And that was the premise.
而那正是当初的承诺。
And that was the promise.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
而现在你有了一个新系统，它可能不会带来流量。
And now you have a new system which may not send the traffic.
事实上，它很可能不会。
In fact, it probably won't.
如果这些系统可以直接告诉你答案，你为什么还要点击跳转？
If these things can just tell you the answer, why would you click through?
因此，我们很可能正朝着这样一个世界前进：只有五家大型系统，我们称之为三到五家大型AI系统。
And so that's probably where we're headed is a world where you have five big systems, let's call it three to five big AI systems.
你访问它们的网站，它们会给你答案。
You go to their websites, they give you an answer.
那么，如果这十亿个其他网站得不到流量，会发生什么呢？这是个问题，对吧？
And so what happens to the billion other websites if they aren't getting traffic is the question, right?
我惊讶又失望地发现，竟然没人提到这一点。
And I'm surprised slash disappointed that I don't see anyone.
我觉得我是唯一一个一直在关注这个问题的人。
I feel like I'm the only person I've been on the Yeah.
我觉得我像是在直播深渊。
I feel like I'm streaming the abyss.
我有点惊讶，那些AI领域的人居然觉得这没什么大不了的。
Like, I'm a little bit surprised that the AI people who just it's fine.
他们拿走了所有数据，将来肯定会有版权诉讼，但我不会去
Like, they took all the data and there'll be copyright lawsuits and I'm not gonna
他们已经达成了一些数据协议。
apply They've them done some data deals even there.
但我们是不是也稍微忽略了社会层面的问题，以及那些小企业会怎样？难道我们不担心互联网的未来吗？
But aren't we a little bit even forgetting about the societal questions and all the small businesses that will be like, don't we worry about the Internet?
因为我担心的只是互联网本身。
Because like I worry about just the Internet.
比如，互联网只剩下五家公司，就像1970年代只有四个频道的电视广播一样。
Like, you have Internet of five companies and it becomes a broadcast TV in the 1970s, there's four channels.
这就是我们想要的世界吗？
Is that the world we wanna live in?
这是一个支持初创企业、支持创新的世界吗？
Is that a world that's pro startup, pro innovation?
是的。
Yeah.
而不是创造力。
Not creativity.
像那些下一代长尾网站那样的海量小网站。
Like a long tail of websites like that next generation of long tail websites.
对。
Yeah.
你会突破吗？
Do you break out?
你怎么创造新事物？
How do you create new things?
所以我只是在没有深入思考的情况下感到担忧。
So so I just worry without thinking it through.
对我来说，我并不是说我是唯一正确的答案，或者你必须采用加密货币的方案。
And so to me, look, I'm not saying that I have the only answer to it or you have to be a crypto answer.
我明白有些人会觉得这有争议，但我觉得第一步是承认，等等，这破坏了互联网的所有激励机制。
I realize some people that's controversial, I think step one is we should say, okay, wait, this breaks all of the incentives of the internet.
第二步是，你知道，这是一件好事吗？
And step two is, you know, is that a good thing?
我不这么认为。
I don't think so.
那么，正确的答案是什么？我们是否应该建立新的激励机制？
And then so what is the right answer and should we create new incentives?
这就是为什么我一直在尝试投资和思考的问题是，比如我提到的故事协议，让我们来设计一些新的激励机制叠加在上面。
And this is why a lot of what I've been trying to invest in and think about has been okay, like the example I gave with story protocol is let's think about new incentive systems to layer on top.
是的。
Yeah.
你曾经提到过，有三类技术产品同时出现了。
One of the things you've talked about is just this trifecta of technology products that have come along at the same time.
那就是生成式人工智能、加密货币和新的硬件平台。
So generative AI, crypto and new hardware platforms.
那么，你怎么看待这三者之间的相互作用呢？
So how do you think about the three of those coming together?
没错，当然，类比一下就是上一波的移动、社交和云计算，它们最终相互强化了。
So yeah, and and the analogy of course is like mobile social cloud, the last wave where they all ended up reinforcing each other.
你已经能看到一些这样的迹象了。
So you're already seeing some of this.
你有这些新的设备，比如AR和VR眼镜，它们大量使用人工智能，还有类似《她》那样的技术。
You have these new devices, the AR and VR glasses and things which use a lot of AI and the sort of HER style kind of stuff.
我对加密货币中的一个领域非常感兴趣，叫做Deepin，即去中心化物理基础设施。
There's a whole area of crypto I'm excited about called Deepin, which is decentralized physical infrastructure.
最著名的例子是一个叫Helium的项目。
Most prominent example is a project called Helium.
Helium是一个由社区拥有、众包的电信网络，旨在与Verizon和AT&T竞争。
And Helium is a community owned crowdsourced telecom network that tries to compete with Verizon and AT and T.
他们创建了一种激励机制，允许任何人在家安装一个Helium节点，从而为网络增添一点覆盖。
And so basically what they did is they created an incentive system where anyone can put a helium node up in their house and that adds a little bit to the network.
它是一个无线发射器。
It's a wireless transmitter.
他们成功让全国成千上万的人部署了这些网络。
They got hundreds of thousands of people in the country to put these networks up.
现在他们提供一种蜂窝服务，价格我认为远低于Verizon的服务。
And now they offer a cellular service that's I think significantly cheaper than something you get from Verizon.
每月只需20美元，而不是70美元。
It's like $20 a month instead of $70 a month.
而且它更便宜，因为大部分时间它都在使用这种自建的网络，而无需花费数百亿美元来建设。
And it's cheaper because much of the time it's using this homegrown network where they didn't have to spend tens of billions of dollars to build it out.
对吧？
Right?
但有趣的是，加密货币非常擅长创建激励机制。
But what's interesting about it is that crypto is very good at creating incentive systems.
对。
Right.
而在传统网络中，最难的阶段是启动阶段。
And traditionally in networks, the hardest part of a network is the bootstrap phase.
一旦网络达到临界规模，它的价值就显而易见了。
Once a network has critical mass, it's clearly valuable.
一旦我能注册这个蜂窝网络并在全国任何地方使用它，显然我愿意为此付费，对吧？
Once I can sign up for the cellular network and use it anywhere in the country, clearly I'll pay for that, right?
是的。
Yeah.
当你刚开始时，只有十户人家有蜂窝网络接入，这根本不是你想使用的东西。
When you started off and there's only 10 houses with the cellular access, it's not something you want to use.
想想一个交友网站。
Think of a dating site.
如果一个交友网站上只有十个人，你不会想用它。
If there's 10 people on a dating site, you don't want to use it.
如果有数百万人在上面，你就想用了。
If there's millions, you do want to use it.
构建网络时的一个经典问题就是：如何度过网络效应还很微弱的早期阶段？
This is a classic problem with building networks is how do you get over this early phase when the network effects are weak?
是的。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
而加密货币正是对此的完美补充。
And so crypto is the perfect complement to that.
加密货币是为网络建设初期提供激励的绝佳方式。
Crypto is a great way to provide incentives in the early areas of building a network.
事实上，世界上许多有趣的网络都是物理网络。
And it turns out a lot of interesting networks in the world are physical networks.
因此，有人正在用它进行气候和天气建模。
So there's people doing this for climate weather modeling.
有人用它来收集自动驾驶数据和地图信息。
There's people doing it for mapping self driving data and mapping cars.
有人用它来建设电动汽车充电桩和蜂窝网络。
There's people doing it for electric car charging, for cellular networking.
我们刚刚做了一个关于能源指标监测的项目。
We just did one that's around energy metric monitoring.
还有人正在开展去中心化科学，将其与更科学的应用相结合。
And there's people doing decentralized science which is you mix it in with sort of more scientific applications.
因此，一个简单的经验法则是：任何在构建网络初期面临挑战的地方，加密货币都能成为助力启动网络的非常有效的方式。
So one sort of simple heuristic is anywhere where you want to build a network and is a challenge to build the early phases of the network, crypto can be a really useful way to help bootstrap that.
哦，有意思。
Oh, interesting.
对吧？
Right?
所以，这是我最感兴趣的领域之一，即物理世界与机器人技术、数据收集以及所有这些与人工智能相关的主题的交汇点。
And so that's one of my favorite areas where the physical world and robotics intersecting with data collection and all these other themes that intersect with AI are relevant.
马克实际上给了我一个框架，我非常喜欢：人工智能是糖霜还是糖？
Mark actually gave me this framework which I like a lot which is, is the AI frosting or sugar?
你知道，如果人工智能
You know, if the AI
是核心成分。
is Like a core ingredient.
糖霜是核心成分。
Frosting, is a core ingredient.
如果它是糖霜，那么所有现有企业都会赢，因为你只需在现有产品上加一个聊天机器人，就能获得用户分布。
If it's frosting, all the incumbents are going win because you slap a chatbot on your existing product and you've got distribution.
拥有销售参考力和现有客户关系。
Have that selling reference power, incumbent relationships.
如果它是更基础的成分，你就不能简单地把AI硬塞进产品里。
If it's more fundamental of an ingredient, you can't actually just slap AI into the product.
你必须从零开始构建，这更有利于新进入者。
You have to build it from scratch and that favors the newcomers.
这还远未确定。
It's just very TBD.
我们还没有看到任何能告诉我们答案的东西。
We haven't seen anything that tells us what the answer is.
越硬核、越模仿原有形态的东西，越属于早期阶段，就越可能有利于现有企业。
The more steelier thing, the more skeuomorphic it is, which is early cycle thing, the more it probably favors the incumbents.
另一种可能诠释马克观点的方式，是克莱顿·克里斯坦森的视角。
Another way maybe to frame Mark's thinking is the Clay Christensen view.
它是颠覆性的，还是持续性的？
Is it disruptive or sustaining?
具体来说，想想人们对克里斯滕森观点的误解，对吧？
And specifically, think what people misunderstand about Christensen's view, right?
颠覆性并不只是意味着新颖。
Disruptive doesn't just mean new.
它意味着与在位企业的商业模式不一致。
It means misaligned with the incumbent business model.
是的，没错。
Yeah, exactly.
这正是他书中有趣的部分，对吧？
That's sort of the interesting part of his book, right?
即使精明的在位企业预见到这一点，也很难做出反应，因为这并不是他们核心客户所要求的。
Is that even when the smart incumbent sees it coming, it's very, very hard for them to react to it because it's not what their best customers are asking for.
是的，没错。
Yeah, exactly.
对吧？
Right?
所以我认为这在某种程度上与马克的‘糖霜’观点有重叠。
And so that's where I think somewhat overlaps with Mark's frosting icing thing.
也许这是一种根本性转变的商业模式。
Well, it could be that the business model is a fundamentally shifted business model.
是的。
Yeah.
你进来后发现，不再是数据库，而是一种完全新颖的、无需数据库的架构。
You come in and you're like, instead of databases, it's some radical new architecture that's database free.
我不知道具体是什么。
I don't know what.
这是一种会蚕食现有商业模式的东西，因此让现有企业难以在原有基础上进行叠加。
It's something that cannibalizes the incumbent business model and therefore makes it organizationally and economically harder for the incumbents to layer on.
是的。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
我们还没看到过。
We haven't seen it yet.
我们见过有人谈论基于成果的定价。
We've seen people talk about outcome based pricing.
那我们快速聊聊消费者领域吧。
Well, let's talk quickly about consumer.
所以至少在消费者领域，我认为你没看到很多网络效应的业务，对吧？
So in consumer right now at least, I don't think you see a lot of network effect businesses, right?
像Claude和ChatGPT这么成功，我认为它们并没有网络效应。
Like as successful as the Claude and ChatGPT's are, I don't think they have a network effect.
切换成本是相对的。
The switching costs are relative.
也许它们会学习你的历史记录。
Maybe they learn your history.
但问题是，对吧，在稳定状态下，它们如何避免仅仅陷入模型和价格竞争，最终价格一路下跌？
But the question is, right, how do they avoid in the steady state having just like a model and price competition to the price to the bottom?
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对吧？
Right?
显然，它们是重要的大企业，但会占据主导地位吗？
Obviously, they're important big businesses, but will they be dominant?
是的。
Yeah.
那么新创公司的机会在哪里？
And then what's the opportunity for new startups?
如果你在AI消费领域做风险投资，你知道，你会看到很多让你的脸更好看的东西，比如这些有趣的App，它们在应用排行榜上迅速上升，然后抖音就抄袭它们，等等，对吧？
If you're doing venture investing in AI consumer, like, you know, you see a lot of these things that make your face prettier, like these kind of fun apps and they zoom up in the app chart and then TikTok copies it and so forth, right?
因为根本不是这样，again，没有网络效应。
Because it's just not, cause again, no network effects.
没有网络效应。
No network effects.
是的。
Yeah.
我最喜欢谈论的一种策略叫作‘因工具而来，因网络而留’。
And there's this technique kind of strategy I like to talk about called come for the tool, stay for the network.
这个想法是，也许你可以先用‘让我变美’这类功能作为钩子，吸引用户进入你的新网络，比如社交网络。
And the idea is maybe you can use that, make my face prettier and then use that as a hook to get people into your new network, like your social network possibly.
不过，考虑到这些现有巨头的规模和实力，今天要做到这一点感觉非常非常困难。
Although it just feels very, very hard today given the scale and power of these incumbents.
顺便说一下，这会与加密货币产生交集，因为加密货币的本质，以及我在书中所主张的是，加密货币是一种构建网络的新方式。
And that by the way will intersect back to crypto because what crypto is and what I argue in my book is that crypto is a new way to build networks.
是的。
Yeah.
这就像是巧克力和花生酱的结合。
And so, you know, you sort of have the chocolate and peanut butter.
你有AI，它带来了各种有趣的应用场景，同时你又有了构建网络的新方法。
You have AI with all these really interesting use cases and then you have this new technique for building networks.
AI有有趣的应用场景，但缺乏网络效应。
AI with interesting use cases, but no network effect.
然后你有了这个全新的东西，完全依赖网络效应。
And then you have this new thing that's like all network effects.
有没有有趣的方式可以把它们结合起来？
Are there interesting ways to combine them?
但在深入之前，我认为有必要谈谈大型技术是如何分阶段推出的。
But before I get to that, I think it's important to talk about how big technologies roll out in multiple stages.
是的。
So Yeah.
这里有一个区别。
There's a distinction.
这不是我提出的区别，但我经常谈论它。
It's not my distinction, but I have talked about a lot.
这是一种思考技术的方式，它们可以做两件事中的一件。
It's this sort of one way to think about technologies that they can do one of two things.
它们要么把旧事做得更好，要么做以前做不到的新事。
They can do old things better or they can do new things you couldn't do before.
我们把第一种称为拟物化。
We call the first one skeuomorphic.
这是史蒂夫·乔布斯提出的术语，指的是那些借鉴以往时代设计风格、使其更易理解的产品和界面。
This is a Steve Jobs term, which sort of refers to products and designs that kind of harken back to a prior era to make them more understandable.
然后我们称之为原生应用，这些是以前无法实现的新事物。
And then there's what we call native apps which are things which are the kind of new things that couldn't be done before.
我认为实际上还有第三个阶段，即二级效应：你发明了汽车，于是有了高速公路系统，进而能够发展出郊区和货运基础设施。
And then there's actually a third stage I think which is second order effects which is you created the car and now you have the highway system and now you're able to create suburbs and trucking infrastructure.
对吧？
Right?
这些都是第二级的下游影响。
Those are second order downstream effects.
有一句名言说：优秀的科幻作家预测汽车，伟大的科幻作家预测交通拥堵。
There's a famous line that good science fiction writers predict the car, great science fiction writers predict the traffic jam.
对吧？
Right?
所以，就像这个想法一样。
So like, it's like that idea.
所以，接下来会有什么样的第二层影响呢？
So it's like down, like what are the second order?
比特币是那种在社交媒体出现之前不可能存在的东西。
Like Bitcoin is something that couldn't have existed before social networking.
对吧？
Right?
比如三十年前，有人说总有一天人们会拥有自己的媒体，你会去掉这些把关者。
Like so thirty years ago, say someday people are gonna have their own media and you're gonna remove these gatekeepers.
谁会想到呢？
Who would have thought?
然后你就会创造出这些数字货币。
Then you're gonna create these digital currencies.
会有
There would
本应
have been
不可能形成这样的社区在
no way to create the community in
是的，是的。
the Yeah, yeah.
那会是一篇《纽约时报》的文章，说这太愚蠢了，然后就结束了。
It would have been a New York Times article saying this is stupid and then that's the end of it.
然后就没有任何地方可以聚集起来讨论并创造属于自己的东西。
And then there's just nowhere to get together and talk about it and create your own.
实际上，它们更像是宗教运动，你知道，大多数代币社区都需要聚集和讨论的场所。
Mean, they're really kind religious movements, you know, most token communities and they need places to congregate and discuss it.
而现在他们有了。
And now they have that.
所以就有了这些各种各样的第二层效应。
And so there's all these kind of second order.
我的意思是，我们在政治和其他各个方面都看到了这些影响。
I mean, we're seeing effects in politics and all these other things.
可以说，我们的社会和世界正因社交媒体而产生第二阶的变化。
There's the whole arguably our society and world is changing as a second order effect of social networking.
所以，一种思考人工智能的方式是。
So one way to think about AI.
第一阶段是拟物化阶段，也就是商业和创业圈里经常谈论的那些内容，比如你的客户服务机器人，对吧？
So the first stage is the skeuomorphic phase which is this is the stuff you see talked about all the time in the business and startup community of like your customer service bots, right?
你把原本由呼叫中心员工完成的工作，用AI语音和聊天机器人取代，对吧？
You take a job that's currently done by a person sitting in a call center and you replace that with an AI voice and chatbot, right?
在最简单的情况下，这是一对一的交流。
In the simplest case, it's a one to one exchange.
它更便宜、更系统化，并且会取代一些工作岗位。
It's cheaper and it's more systematic and it will displace jobs.
希望它也能创造同等甚至更多的就业机会，并带来更好的工作。
Hopefully it will also create equally or more jobs and better jobs.
但那只是显而易见的第一阶段。
But that's sort of an obvious first stage.
而且你看，我认为人们之所以对人工智能的机会如此兴奋，原因之一是你能清楚地看到这种变化正在数以千万计的工作中发生。
And look, and this is I think one of the reasons people get so excited about the opportunity for AI is you can just see that happening in, I don't know, tens of millions of jobs, I guess.
比如经济中整个中层办公岗位，你能看到许多这类工作。
Like the whole laptop middle kind of section of the economy, you can see many of those jobs.
包括我们自己在内，每天花时间发邮件的人都面临风险。
Everyone including us who spend their days typing emails are at risk.
这就像
It's like
我们可以对此进行推测，
we can speculate on it,
但我们自己也是这个群体的一部分。
but we're part of that group too.
所以这就是第一阶段，对吧？
So that's phase one, right?
这是地貌性的。
It's geomorphic.
但第一阶段可能持续二十年。
But that phase one can last twenty years.
所以为了明确一下。
So just to be clear.
是的。
Yeah.
下一阶段是原生阶段。
The next phase is the native phase.
而对我来说，这更让我兴奋。
And that, to me, that's what gets me more excited.
顺便说一下，让我举一个互联网的例子。
And by way, let me give a little analogy to the internet.
所以拟物化阶段是九十年代。
So the skeuomorphic phase was the nineties.
所以基本上，看看九十年代的互联网，人们把线下的一些东西，比如杂志和目录，搬到了网上。
And so basically, you look at nineties internet, people were taking offline things like magazines and catalogs and putting them online.
所以你会去买东西，你知道的，这变得容易多了。
So you would go buy things, you know, and it was much easier.
你可以输入一个网站，在亚马逊上购买这本稀有的书。
You could type in a website and go buy this rare book on Amazon.
这方便多了，也很便捷。
And it was much easier and it was convenient.
但它本质上是你以前就能做到的事情。
But it was fundamentally something you could have done before.
只是那时候会很麻烦，得去搞一些奇怪的杂志目录之类的。
It just would have been clumsy and getting some weird magazine catalog or something.
但直到2000年代，人们才开始做社交网络这样的事情。
But it wasn't until the 2000s that people did things like social networking.
这些完全是全新的东西。
And these things were just brand new things.
这些人们创造的新行为在离线世界中没有任何对应物。
There's no analog in the offline world to a lot of these new behaviors that people created.
如果人们感兴趣，我在书中对此进行了大量详细探讨。
I talk a lot in detail about this in the book if people are interested.
所以，无论如何，你见证了互联网以这种方式发展。
So anyway, so you saw the internet play out that way.
1993年是Mosaic浏览器，2000年左右可以说是YouTube的兴起，而2004年则是Facebook之类的平台出现。
'93 was Mosaic and 2000, I would say May was sort of YouTube and '4 I think was Facebook or whatever it was.
所以这至少花了一年的时间。
So it took at least a decade.
是的。
Yeah.
顺便说一下，在原生阶段，你之所以感到如此兴奋，是因为你获得了新产品和新的媒体形式。
And by the way, one of the things you get in the native phase which is why it's so exciting is you get new products, you get new forms of media.
所以，当你回溯摄影逐渐流行的时代，当时有大量关于艺术未来走向的文化评论和深度文章。
So if you go back when photography was growing in popularity, there were all of these cultural art criticism think pieces about what will happen to art.
你知道，像瓦尔特·本雅明这样著名的人物，他谈过机械复制时代的艺术。
You know, the famous like Walter Benjamin, the art in the age of mechanical reproduction.
有很多著名的文章都在探讨：这会带来什么变化？
There's all these like famous essays where it was like what's gonna happen?
因为现在你可以拍下照片，创造出美丽的风景，那么在这个世界里，艺术家的角色又是什么，对吧？
Because now that you can take a photo and create a beautiful landscape, what's the role of the artist in that world, right?
所以人们当时对这个问题的担忧，就像今天对生成式人工智能的担忧一样，对吧？
And so people were worried about it in the same way they're worried today about generative AI, right?
那么，假如你现在能制作一部电影呢？
So like what if you can now, you know, create a movie?
看起来你很快就能做到了。
Looks like you can pretty soon.
是的。
Yeah.
意思是，图像已经存在了。
Mean, images is there.
图片已经存在了，视频也很可能很快就会出现。
Images are there and and probably videos coming soon.
在摄影的情况下，我认为发生了两件事。
What happened in the case of photography is that you had, I think two things happened.
纯艺术变得更加抽象，并远离了摄影。
Fine art went more abstract and went away from photography.
对吧？
Right?
它转向了自己独有的优势。
It leaned into what they were unique at.
嗯。
Mhmm.
于是就有了立体主义以及其他各种艺术运动。
And that's when you had whatever, cubism and all these other kinds of movements.
而另一方面，真正有趣的是，电影开始兴起。
And then on the other side, think what's really interesting, right, is you had the rise of film.
有人提出，也许你可以用机器来取代摄影，但你现在也可以用机器创造出一种以前根本不可能存在的全新艺术形式。
You had someone say, hey, maybe you can use machines to replace photography, but you can also now use machines to create a brand new art form that never could exist before.
对吧？
Right?
你在动画中已经见过这种现象，但现在你可以用电影以一种非常有趣且复杂的方式实现它。
You sort of had it with animation, but now you could do it a really interesting, sophisticated way with film.
对吧？
Right?
因此，电影将成为机械复制时代最本真的媒介形式。
And so film would be what was the native form of media in the age of mechanical reproduction.
对吧？
Right?
这个类比太有趣了。
Oh, that's a fascinating analogy.
所以我认为，放到今天来看，当你观察生成式人工智能时，从负面角度看，确实能感受到艺术界和推特上很多负面情绪，他们说：看吧，这不过是人类创造力的廉价替代品。
And so I think to like today, like so when you look at the generative AI, like the negative way to look at it, you do see some a lot of this negative sentiment from like the art community and things on Twitter where they say, look, this is just a cheap replacement for human creativity.
积极的一面是，这只是一个基础层。
The positive way to look at it is this is the base layer.
就像当时电影是一个基础层一样。
In the same way the film was a base layer back then.
但现在有了一个全新的创意画布，你可以创造出新的艺术形式。
But now there's this new canvas of human creativity where you can create new art forms.
我不知道这些会是什么。
I don't know what those are.
它们可能是虚拟世界、游戏或新型的电影。
They may be virtual worlds or games or new types of films and movies.
我不确定。
I don't know.
它们可能会与一种全新的媒体消费方式产生交集。
They may intersect with a new way to consume the media altogether.
是的。
Yeah.
也许会出现新的交互界面。
Maybe there's new interfaces.
对我来说，新的原生媒体和原生应用最令人兴奋的地方就在于，我根本不会去想它。
And this is to me what's so exciting about the new native media, the native apps is that I won't think of it.
因为根据我过去观察这些浪潮的经验，确实需要才华横溢的创意人士才能想出这些新事物。
Because in my experience through watching some of these waves in the past is there, it really does take brilliant creative people to come up with these new things.
在很多情况下，它们都会让你感到惊喜。
And it surprises you in many cases.
所以我认为，我所期待的激动人心的阶段，并不是如何用这项技术以更低的成本做今天已经能做的事情。
And so I think that that's gonna be the exciting phase I'm looking for is not how do you just use this technology to do the things you could do today but do them cheaper.
而是如何利用这项技术推动前沿，去做以前根本不可能实现的事情，就像电影曾经做到的那样，对吧？
But how do you use the technology to push the frontier and do things that could never be done before in the same way that film did that, right?
是的。
Yeah.
我认为摄影为创意人士带来的机会，可能比它取消的还要多。
I think photography probably unlocked more opportunities for creative people than it removed.
是的。
Yep.
我认为在这个阶段，这正是我们的期望。
And I think this would be the hope in this kind of phase.
所以这就是媒体的例子。
So that's the media example.
但消费类应用、社交网络和生产力工具也可能存在类似的情况。
But there's probably that for consumer applications and that for social networking and that for productivity.
因此，我认为最令人兴奋的是，不仅仅是取代我们今天所做的事，而是创造出我们以前无法实现的全新行为。
And so that will be the really exciting thing I think to see is not just the replacing things we do today, but come up with brand new behaviors that are things we couldn't do before.
第三点是二级效应，对吧？
And then the third thing is the second order effects, right?
所以你创造了一个新的世界。
So you create this new world.
你已经创造了一个社交网络的世界。
So you've created this world of social networking.
想想社交媒体，我们已经看到了它的演变。
As interesting to think with social networking, we've seen it play out.
你知道，社交媒体大约在二月开始兴起。
You know, you sort of have social networking rise in the February.
我认为它达到了一个临界点。
I think it hit a tipping point.
也许是奥巴马的选举。
Maybe the Obama election.
是的。
Yeah.
那是2008年，然后在2012年，他真正开始大力利用这一点。
Was that the 2008 and then 12/02, he really leaned into using that.
我记得看到很多新闻文章说，哇，这不一样了。
And I remember seeing all these news articles like, wow, this is different.
关键在于，网络从次要角色转变为首要角色。
The bit had flipped from online as a secondary to sort of online was primary.
但随后我们开始看到一些更奇怪的现象，比如特朗普运动和民粹主义让所有人都感到意外。
But then we started seeing these kind of weirder things like I think the Trump movement and the populism just surprised everybody.
你开始看到各种运动只是自发地兴起。
And you just started seeing movements and just behave.
我认为我们至今仍未真正弄清楚这一切将走向何方。
And I think we still haven't really figured out what's going on with where all this is headed.
我想我们现在正处于一种失衡状态。
And we're in this disequilibrium state, I guess.
无论如何，社交媒体的这些次级影响可能还会持续下去，正如我提到的，像加密货币以及今天许多其他有趣的社会运动，都是社交媒体的次级影响。
Anyways, those sort of second order effects of social media will probably play out for, as I mentioned, like crypto and I think a bunch of other interesting movements today are second order effects of social media.
这种影响可能会持续二三十年。
And that will probably play out for twenty, thirty years.
因此，这可能是人工智能革命的第三阶段。
And so that will probably be phase three of the AI revolution.
是的。
Yeah.
想想这些时间线吧。
And just think about the timelines.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，所有这些可能需要非常长的时间，因为我历史上总是对这些事情过于乐观。
I mean, it's probably gonna take a very long time for all Like I'm always overly optimistic on these things historically.
我觉得，好吧，我们已经度过了拟物化阶段。
I'm like, okay, We're done with the skeuomorphic phases.
是的。
Yeah.
现在我们要进入原生阶段了。
Now we'll do the native phase.
但现实是，每个阶段可能都需要十年时间。
But the reality is each phase probably takes a decade.
你提到这些不同阶段时，其中一个有趣的地方是，互联网花了很长时间，部分原因是需要构建网络。
One of the interesting things you said around these distinct phases, obviously, the Internet took a long time partially because you had to build a network.
是的。
Yeah.
这是供需问题，对吧？
Was a supply and demand issue, right?
物理网络，然后还有
Physical network and then also
literally 铺设电缆和
Literally laying cables and
是的，铺设电缆，当然，你还需要构建大型的计算GPU集群并配备网络。
the Yeah, laying cables and sure, you have to build large clusters of compute GPUs here with networking.
但我认为，从拟物化阶段过渡到原生阶段的制约因素，未必是技术能力本身，而是人类的创造力。
But I think the constraining factor for getting from that skeuomorphic phase to the native phase is not necessarily capabilities themselves, but like human creativity.
是的，我也这么认为。
Yeah, I think so.
在我看来，瓶颈将是人类和监管，而这两者显然是紧密相关的。
In like IT think the bottleneck will be humans and regulation, which are obviously closely connected.
是的。
Yes.
我认为，在供需双方，人类都是瓶颈，尤其是在需求侧。
And I think humans on both the supply and the demand side, probably more on the demand side.
也就是说，在供给侧，你需要有人提出所有富有创意的想法。
So meaning supply side, you need to have people come up with all the creative things.
但如今世界已经不同了，我觉得初创企业界也今非昔比了。
But the world's different now in that I just think the startup world's different now.
它比当年我刚入行时成熟和复杂得多。
It's much more mature and much more sophisticated honestly than like when I was coming up in it.
我刚起步的时候，只有十家风投公司。
Mean, when I was starting off, there were 10 venture firms.
现在有成千上万家。
Now there's thousands.
初创公司的数量。
The number of startups.
而且说实话，现在有很多明智而有益的建议。
And honestly, there's a lot of good smart advice out there.
是的。
Yeah.
这对聪明人来说是一条更受欢迎的道路。
This is a more popular path for smart people to go to.
对。
Yeah.
就像在Y Combinator和其他地方所做的一样，他们在这方面做得很好。
Like a thing you do like in places like Y Combinator and other places have done a good job of this.
如果你毕业于顶尖学校，十年前，我认识的人中还没人觉得‘哇，你可以去创业’。
If you're coming out of a top school, I mean even ten years ago, wasn't like I knew people that were like, wow, you could do startups.
十五年前确实如此。
I mean, definitely that was the case fifteen years ago.
但现在，我认为这已经成为一条成熟的职业路径。
But now I think it's like an established career path.
已经有一套成熟的导师资源和资金支持。
There's an established set of mentors, established set of funding.
那里有一套相当不错的建议体系。
There's a cannon of pretty good advice out there.
过去的标准建议往往是糟糕的建议。
Like the standard advice used to be terrible advice.
现在这些建议变得很好了。
Now it's good advice.
如果你是个聪明且善于社交的人，来到旧金山后，相对容易就能融入其中，然后硅谷在应对这些问题上已经变得非常擅长，投入了大量的资本和能量。
You can come out to San Francisco and I think relatively easily if you're a smart network friendly person, And get embedded pretty then, you know, and then Silicon Valley, it's gotten just very good at throwing tons of capital energy against those problems.
所以，供给端已经成熟了。
So there's a supply side.
我推测需求端则更多体现在另一种意义上，即改变组织和人类的工作与行为模式。
I suspect the demand side is more like another meaning like changing organizational and human work and behavior patterns.
比如，拿我们刚才讨论的视频例子来说。
Like getting an organization like take the video example we're talking about.
是的
Yeah.
我的意思是，你看，我写了我的书。
I mean, look, I wrote my book.
我想用自己的声音，用AI来朗读我的书。
I wanted to have my own voice, use AI to read the book using my own voice.
无论是出版商还是Audible这个播客平台，都完全禁止使用AI。
Both the publisher and Audible, the podcasting platform, ban AI completely.
这部分是工会的原因，也是一些抵制情绪。
And part of its unions and just a bunch of resistance.
我认为人们都知道这一点，但其实实现这些功能的技术能力已经完全具备了。
I think people know this, but like the capabilities are fully there to do that.
对。
Yeah.
我的意思是，你看，马克·安德森写过一篇很棒的博客文章。
I mean, like, look, Mark Andreessen had a great blog post.
问题是，我怎么知道他们会像禁止医学中的AI那样禁止AI呢？
It's like, how do I know they're gonna ban AI like medicine?
因为他们实际上已经这么做了。
Because they already have, essentially.
我的意思是，这些技术在众多会产生影响的领域都受到了极其严格的监管。
I mean, essentially, like these things are so heavily regulated in so so many areas where it's gonna have an impact are so heavily regulated.
举个例子，看看好莱坞的生成式AI这件事。
And just the organization like, look, take the Hollywood Gen AI thing.
你可能不得不裁掉一大批你并不想裁掉的、属于工会的员工。
You'd have to lay off a whole bunch of people probably who you don't wanna lay off, who are unionized.
所以，也许在另一个国家会出现一些新兴的、原生AI的电影工作室。
So that means maybe there'll be some fresh upstarts maybe in another country who create AI native movie studios.
但那需要非常长的时间。
But that will take a very long time.
正确的做法可能是充分利用好莱坞的全部人才，将他们与AI结合起来。那里有很多非常聪明的人才。
The right answer is probably to harness all of that talent in Hollywood and combine it with AI in some There is a lot of very smart people and talent.
但文化上需要多长时间才能实现呢？
But how long will that take culturally?
可能需要整整一代人才能真正显现出来。
It may take a whole new generation to really play out.
对吧？
Right?
所以这是需求端的问题。
So that's something by the demand side.
对吧？
Right?
还有就是人类行为的改变，比如调整你的工作流程，使用AI助手。
And then just human behavior, changing your workflow, using an AI assistant.
我不知道。
I don't know.
总之，是的。
Anyway, so Yeah.
拥有一个为你所有事情提供协助的副驾驶，感觉确实如此。
Having like a copilot for everything you do, like it it feels like it's Yeah.
也许这可以通过界面和其他方式来解决。
Maybe maybe that can be solved with interfaces and things.
我不知道。
Don't know.
然后是政策层面，我所讨论的这种阻力已经注定会被制度化。
Then then there's the policy side, which is there's going to be this resistance I'm discussing is already is going to be, you know, enshrined.
会有一些运动试图将其写入法律。
There's gonna be movements to enshrine in law.
我认为这将在多个层面上展开。
And that's gonna play out I think in multiple levels.
它已经在法庭上开始显现，也正在各州立法机构中显现，比如加州推出了人工智能法案。
It's already starting to play out in the courts and it's starting to play out in like state legislatures with like California had the AI bill.
你知道，现在有很多关于版权的诉讼。
You know, you have a bunch of lawsuits around copyright.
我的观点是，最终这将在国会得到解决。
My view is ultimately this will play out in Congress.
当一件事影响到数千万人的工作时，这显然是个大问题。
This is such a big issue when you have something that affects tens of millions of jobs.
人们不会允许这种事情只是自然而然地发生。
It is beyond something that people are gonna allow just happens
就是通过，是的。
Just that, through yeah.
通过自由市场，是的。
Through free markets, yeah.
是的，还有通过常规的法院裁决。
Yeah, and through regular court decisions.
版权问题就是一个例子。
Like the copyright thing is an example.
比如现在的问题是，当AI系统用某段数据进行训练时，它是在复制这些数据，还是在从这些数据中学习？
Like right now the question is when an AI system is trained on a piece of data, is it copying that data or is it learning from that data?
这是一个哲学问题。
It's a philosophical question.
目前在不同媒体领域都存在一个根本性的问题。
There's a fundamental question across the different media happening right now.
没错。
That's right.
因此，五年后，某位联邦法官可能会裁定这个哲学问题，或者我认为更可能的是，最终会出台某种国会立法，在媒体行业和科技行业之间达成某种妥协，制定出既能为创作者提供激励，又允许人工智能系统存在的解决方案。
And so you could have five years from now some federal judge decide that philosophical question or I think more likely you'll eventually have some legislation like congressional legislation that some kind of compromise struck between media industries and tech industries that comes up with a solution that both creates incentives for creators but also allows AI systems to exist.
我不知道。
I don't know.
但这件事将需要很长一段时间才能明朗。
But that thing will play out over a very long time.
你什么时候会被允许在医疗和金融领域使用人工智能？
When will you be allowed to use AI in medical and finance?
我的意思是，我们经济中很大一部分——可能占70%——都是受监管的行业。
And I mean, a significant part of what is probably 70% of our economy are regulated industries.
对吧？
Right?
是的，当然。
Yeah, of course.
你知道吗，反过来讲，Waymo 的那些东西真的令人印象深刻。
You know, on the flip side, like the stuff with Waymo is really impressive.
我惊讶他们居然被允许在旧金山运营。
I'm surprised they're actually allowed in San Francisco.
事实上，它比人类驾驶员安全七到十倍。
There's Well, it turns out it's seven to 10 times safer than a human driver.
现在已经有数百万英里的驾驶数据了。
And there's now millions of miles of game film.
所以这可能是让这类技术更广泛采用的范本。
So maybe that's the playbook to get this stuff adopted more broadly.
互联网的理想未来状态是什么？
What is an ideal future state of the internet?
创建和分发的成本几乎为零，所有权和治理都是透明的。
There's near zero cost of creation and distribution, transparent ownership, governance.
这看起来会是什么样子？
What does this look like?
我认为我们现在正处于一个十字路口，真正的问题在于，它更像最初的愿景——即20世纪80年代和90年代的互联网愿景，一个由社区拥有、社区治理的互联网。
I think that we're at a crossroads and there's a real question as to whether it looks more like its original vision, which is the vision of the Internet, like the nineties vision and the eighties vision or something was an Internet that was community owned, community governed.
当时资金主要流向网络的边缘，而不是中间的中介方。
The money mostly flowed to the edges of the network and not to the intermediaries in the middle.
比如在90年代初期，资金流向了边缘，流向了小企业、创新者和创业者。
Like originally in the nineties, the money flowed to the edges, to small businesses, to innovators, to entrepreneurs.
如果你今天看一张地图，资金主要流向了中间环节。
If you looked at a map today, it's mostly flowing to the middle.
这就是为什么这七家
This is why these seven
这是2亿美元
It's $200,000,000
社交媒体的收入。
of revenue in social networking.
全部都是这样，是的。
That's all Yeah.
我认为前五大互联网公司的市值加起来超过了市场总值的一半。
I think the top five internet companies are something like more than half of the market cap.
没那么多。
Not more.
现在可能更高了。
It might be higher by now.
所以你看，所有的利益都流向了中间环节。
And so just you have all the green stuff flowing into the middle.
我认为你想要的两件重要事情是权力和金钱，也就是控制权。
I think of it as two kind of important things that you want is power and money, control.
我书中的核心论点是，这两个问题源于这些服务的构建方式。
And my core arguments in the book is that those two questions are a product of how you build these services.
这本书的第一句话是‘你的架构就是你的命运’，或者类似的意思——你选择的架构决定了系统如何被控制以及资金如何流动。
The first sentence of the book is your architecture is your destiny or Like something like the architecture you choose determines how it's controlled and how the money flows.
因此，我认为我们正处在一个关键的时刻。
And so and I think we're really at a kind of critical point.
事实上，我担心我们正接近一个不可逆转的临界点，互联网将被五家公司所控制。
In fact, I worry we're approaching a point of no return where it's going to be an Internet controlled by five companies.
实际情况是，这些网络都达到了一定的规模，它们决定下一波策略就是把你牢牢困在其中。
What's happened is these networks have all gotten to a certain scale and they've decided that the next kind of wave is to keep you trapped there.
现在根本不可能再增长用户了。
Well, there's no way to grow users anymore.
它们已经捕获了所有
They've captured all
这些，没错。
these That's right.
它们爬上梯子后，就把梯子踢开了。
That's They climb the ladder and they're kicking it away.
这真的非常消极。
And it's really negative.
因此，作为一家公司，我们认为能够使用区块链等新架构构建互联网服务是一个极其重要的议题，这对所谓的‘小科技’的未来至关重要。
And this is why we as a firm have felt that this is such an important topic of being able to build internet services with new architectures like using blockchains is such an important topic for the future of small tech, little tech as we call it
嗯。
Mhmm.
再加上开源AI，另一个关键点是：如果初创公司必须向现有巨头支付巨额费用才能构建竞争性服务，它们就无法开发出能威胁这些巨头的服务。
Along with open source AI, the other kind of critical thing, which is if startup has to pay this giant tax to an incumbent to build competitive services, they won't be able to build services that threaten those incumbents.
对吧？
Right?
所以，是的。
So Yeah.
我们以前就见过这种情况。
We've seen that before.
对吧？
Right?
你提到过，Zynga 是在 Facebook 的基础上建立的。
Like you've talked about it as Zynga was built on top of Facebook.
是的。
Yeah.
然后
And then
这是平台风险。
It's platform risk.
对吧？
Right?
你的根基就像流沙一样。
Mean, you're building on quicksand.
所以初创公司需要获得分发渠道和网络资源，也需要获得现代软件、开源软件。
So startups need access to distribution and networks and they need access to modern software, open source software.
因此，我认为这些都是关键问题。
And so I think those are the critical questions.
我认为，这些将会是极其重要的事情，我们之所以投入如此多的时间和金钱，是因为监管层面的问题——有哪些政策？这些政策是否鼓励竞争、创新和小型科技企业？
Those will be, I think, a hugely important thing, is why we've invested so much time and money in it is the regulatory side of this is like what policies are there And are they policies that encourage competition, innovation and little tech?
然后，我认为提高对这些议题的意识并开展相关讨论也很重要。
And then I think just raising awareness of these topics and having discussions about them are important.
我现在担心的是，我们未经深思熟虑就把自己逼入了四家公司掌控一切的境地。
What I'm worried about now is we're sort of backing ourselves without having really thought it through into a situation where there's four companies that control everything.
最终，我们是在消耗自己的种子粮。
And it ends up we're kind of eating our seed corn.
我们今天所受益的许多东西，都源于过去的初创企业创新。
So much of what we benefit from today is the startup innovation of the past.
如果我们任由这少数几家公司掌控一切，就会危及这种创新的持续性。
And we'll risk losing that if we let these small set of companies control everything.
是的。
Yeah.
但我还是持乐观态度。
Well, I'm optimistic.
听我说，积极的一面是，通过你们和我们公司所做的努力，我们已经让更多人了解了小科技。
Look, the bright side is through all the work that you guys have done and our firm, we've gotten the word out about little tech.
我认为，理解构建新架构、新基础设施以及开源的重要性，正让这个理念逐渐传播开来。
And I think understanding that building a new architecture, new infrastructure, and then the importance of open source, I think the word is getting out.
所以这太棒了。
So this is awesome.
感谢你们的到来。
Thanks for being here.
我总是很喜欢和你聊天。
I always love talking to you.
谢谢。
Thank you.
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