为什么公司正在变成一系列循环 | Lenny播客专访Anish Acharya

所以这不理性，但我认为有很多工作有无限的上升空间，比如药物研发。

So it's not rational, but I think there's a lot of jobs in which you have unbounded upside, like drug discovery.

你明白吗？

You know?

如果那一个智商点让你发现了下一个他汀类药物，那就是万亿美元级别的成果。

And if that one IQ point lets you discover the next, you know, statin, it's a trillion dollar outcome.

所以在这类工作和行业中，为最高智能付费是合理的。

So it's sort of rational to pay for the highest intelligence in these types of jobs and industries.

另一方面，我要说说法律行业。

Now on the other hand, I'm gonna pick on, you know, maybe legal.

在法律或金融领域，上升空间可能有限。

There's perhaps only so much upside to be had in legal or finance.

对于这些工作，你确实需要高效，可能要为好的性能付合理的价格，而不是为无限潜力的性能付无限的价格。

And for those jobs, you actually do efficient and probably pay for, you know, good performance at a good price, not infinitely priced infinite potential upside performance.

所以我认为我们会看到工作职能的分化，有些需要中等智商。

So I think what we're going to see is a split between job functions that demand kind of mid IQ intelligence.

这些通常会采用开放权重，并且通过强化学习进行优化，让模型在特定任务上更便宜、更高效，同时还有那些所谓的昂贵但性能卓越的前沿模型，用于销售、支持、研发和工程等领域。

And those will often be open weight, sort of biased with reinforcement learning, you know, things that make the models even cheaper, more performant for a narrow job, along with, incredibly, quote, unquote, expensive but performant frontier tokens for sales, support, research, engineering.

所以我认为最终会同时存在这两种架构。

So I think you're gonna end up having both architectures.

而且，我们稍后可以再详细讨论，但我确实认为不同模型家族之间，以及当然还有越来越多的单个模型之间，都存在这种比较优势。

And, you know, we can touch on this in a little bit, but I do think there are these sort of comparative advantages amongst model families and then also amongst, of course, individual models that we're seeing more and more of.

不会是二选一，

It's not gonna be one or

而是两者兼有。

the other.

这个见解真有意思。

Such an interesting insight.

为了确保我理解你所说的，你是认为在组织内部会出现这种分工，对吧？

So just to make sure I understand what you're describing here, you're thinking there's gonna be this split between kind of within an org of Yeah.

具体来说，那些有更大上升空间和潜在杠杆作用的职能会采用前沿模型，比如你提到的产品、销售、工程等领域，对吧？

Function and model where specific functions that have a lot more upside and potential leverage go for the frontier models, and you you describe these kind of product sales, engineering Yeah.

研究岗位。

Research roles.

对。

Mhmm.

然后对于其他职能，你不需要，你不需要Mythos。

Then there's, like and then for other functions, you don't need you don't need Mythos.

我觉得你也不需要Astra。

You don't need Astra, I think.

是不是那个

Is is that the

最新的？

latest one?

Astra。

Astra.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

所以你的意思是，AI不需要是最前沿的模型，人也不需要是世界上最聪明的人，就能在那个领域做得很好。

And so it's both you're saying the AI doesn't need to be the frontier model, and the people don't have to be the smartest people in the world to do really well in that world.

对。

Yeah.

而且我不想贬低任何人。

And I don't I don't wanna be diminutive.

比如，那些岗位上确实有非常出色的人。

Like, there's extraordinary people in those job functions.

我只是觉得他们处理的问题有上限。

I just think that they're bounded upside problems that they work on.

你知道，你只能把账做对。

You know, you can only kind of close the books correctly.

你知道，你不可能把账做得比现在好一百倍。

You know, you can't close the books a 100 x better.

所以，是的，这正是我想说的。

So, yeah, that that's exactly what I'm saying.

我在想，这是否和我们之前讨论过的可验证性有关。

I wonder if it's connected back to that discussion we had earlier about it's verifiable.

如果问题更容易验证，你就不需要最前沿的模型，而不像那些潜在回报巨大的领域。

If it's a lot more verifiable, you don't need the frontier model versus, I don't know, the potential upside.

我不确定。

I'm not sure.

我的意思是，我觉得可验证性是个好问题，因为像药物研发公司，回报是无限的。

I mean, I think for a verifiability is a good question because I think for a like a drug development company, you have infinite upside.

这是可验证的。

It is verifiable.

但做账也是可验证的问题，只是回报有限。

But closing the books is also a verifiable problem, which has limited upside.

我觉得问题其实在于，这里面的上升空间有多大，以及计算这个空间有多难？

I think the question is really how how much upside is there and how hard is it to calculate it?

比如说，这里有个细微的差别。

Like, here's a nuance.

就拿客户支持来说，客户可能会打电话来报告一个bug。

Customer support, a customer may call in and report a bug.

这个bug可能恰恰是改变整个组织的第一条线索。

That bug may actually be the first breadcrumb to a thing that changes our entire organization.

如果接电话的是CEO或者最聪明的人，他们就能顺着这条线索追下去。

And if the CEO was on that call or the smartest person, they could follow the trail.

但如果接电话的是我们所谓的“中等智商通才”，那就追不下去了。

But if we actually have this quote, unquote, mid IQ generalist, then not.

这其实就说明了，面对一堆问题时，应该总是用最前沿的智能来处理。

That actually makes the case for as a basket of problems always use frontier intelligence.

当然，我也可以为中等智商通才的方案辩护，理由很简单：我们已经跨过了几乎所有经济上有用问题的智能门槛，超过这个门槛的部分，其实都是浪费。

And I can, of course, make the case for the mid IQ basket as well, which is simply that we've crossed an intelligence threshold for almost every economically useful problem, and anything beyond that threshold is is simply waste.

对。

Yeah.

而且，我觉得大家忽略的一点是，那些不是最前沿的模型，它们其实在大概六个月前就是最前沿的，当时我们觉得特别惊艳，特别喜欢。

And, like, I think I think people the point people forget is that the models that are not the frontier models, they were like, that was what the frontier was, I don't know, six months ago, and we were so impressed, and we loved it.

就像，天哪。

Was like, holy shit.

我们能做这么多事情。

We can do all this.

但现在只是因为有了更好的，我们就不怎么认可那些模型了。

And now just because there's something better, we don't give those models as much credit.

你说得对。

You're right.

因为这有点像，这东西太疯狂了。

Because it's sorta like, this thing is so crazy.

你知道吗？

You know?

这简直就是AGI，然后过了一天，它就成了你扔进垃圾桶的旧东西。

This is this is AGI, and then a day later, it's like the old thing that you throw in the dustbin.

顺着这个思路，我听到有人开玩笑叫你模型品酒师。

So kind of along those lines, I hear people jokingly call you a model sommelier.

以你品酒师的资历，跟我们说说现在模型界的现状怎么样？

Tell us with your sommelier credentials, what's kinda like the current state of the model art?

每个模型各自擅长什么？

What what are each what are what is each model great at?

每个模型又有什么短板？

What's each what are models terrible at?

对。

Yes.

嗯，你知道的，每个品酒师的秘诀就是一万小时的练习，或者说是尝过一万瓶酒。

Well, the, you know, as you know, the the secret of every sommelier is ten thousand hours, or maybe 10,000 bottles.

所以我觉得，成为模型品酒师的秘诀就是多去用它们。

So I think that the secret of being a model sommelier is just using them

全都喝。

all.

喝。

Drinking.

我逼自己很紧，每个新模型一出来，我都要用它做出点东西来。

I push myself really hard to ship something with every new model that comes out.

我觉得你能学到很多。你知道，那些觉得模型都差不多、可以随便替换的人，其实根本没真正用过这些模型。

And I think you learn so much, you know, I think for people who believe the models are commodities, or totally fungible, you just haven't actually used the models.

比如，最近几周，我特别迷Quinn 3.8 Backs。

And, know, for example, in the last few weeks, I've been obsessed with Quinn three eight backs.

Quinn是个很棒的模型。

Quinn is an awesome model.

它特别擅长处理长期任务。

It's very good at long horizon tasks.

而且它真的很有创意。

And it's actually really creative.

它讲故事讲得特别好。

It's a great storyteller.

所以我一直在用它制作那些不可能存在的纪录片，主要是关于《星球大战》宇宙里的那些星球。

So I've been using it to create these impossible documentaries, mostly of, you know, planets of the Star Wars universe.

我做了塔图因，效果特别好。

I did Tatooine, which turned out great.

昨晚我做了贝斯平，它能连续工作四五个小时。

I did best bin last night, and it can just work for four or five hours.

它讲的故事特别精彩。

It tells a great story.

它用MiniMax模型生成所有视频，用ElevenLabs生成音频。

It generates all the video using the mini max model via file generates audio via 11.

它实际上就像导演一样，指导这部五分钟的电影，剪辑所有片段，叠加效果，然后观看成品。

It actually like directs the movie, the five minute movie, and that it like cuts all of the clips in it overlays it, it watches it.

这真的太了不起了，而且它的风格和GLM-5完全不同。GLM-5.3刚发布，我用它做了很多产品相关的工作。

It's just extraordinary, you know, and that's just it's got a totally different shape than glm five to glm five, three just came out, which I used for a bunch of product work.

它没有视觉功能，就像你放在角落里那个神经质的博士。

It doesn't have a vision component, and it's sort of like this neurotic PhD you put in the corner.

而且它们都有各自的角色。

And they both have the role.

对吧？

Right?

这有点像模型之间的那种张力。

This is a little bit of the kind of these tension of models.

并不是说一个比另一个强。

It's not that one is ahead of another.

一个更聪明。

One is more intelligent.

而是说一个模型的心智偏向某个方向，比如Quinn偏向创造力和开放性，而其他模型则偏向其他方向，比如GLM-5-3那种神经质和精确性。

It's rather one is sort of has a mind that's shaped in one direction, perhaps creativity and openness for Quinn, and others that are shaped in other directions like, you know, neuroticism and precision like g l m five three.

所以我就是每个模型都拿来用一用，这样就能建立起我的直觉。

So that I just make something with every model, and that's how I build my intuition.

你觉得这个习惯对人们来说有多重要？

How important is this habit, do you think, for people?

因为我经常听说，使用这些模型真的很重要。

Because I hear a lot that it's really important to be using these models.

还有一个附带的问题是，你是怎么想到用这些模型来做什么的？

And kind of a secondary question is how do you come up with what to do with these models?

因为很多人都想尝试这些东西。

Because a lot of people want to try these things.

他们就会想，好吧。

They're like, okay.

我该做什么呢？

What do I do?

我知道。

I know.

有什么建议吗？

Any suggestions?

我觉得我们几乎所有人都有过那种最让人受不了的朋友，就是那种老跟你讲他App点子的人。

Well, I think you need almost all of us have got you know, the most insufferable thing for for a long time was your app idea friend.

你知道，每次你去喝啤酒，他们就说，让我跟你讲讲我的App点子。

You know, every time you went to have a beer, they're like, let me tell you my app idea.

你心里就想，哎，又来了。

You're like, oh, here we go again.

现在我们自己倒成了那种老讲App点子的人了。

Like, we have got to be the the app idea guys now.

而且那些傻乎乎的点子，尤其是傻的，因为那些往往最有潜力，才是我们大家都应该去做的。

And all the silly ideas actually, especially the silly ideas, because those are the ones that often have the most alpha are the ones that we should all be building.

所以我大概做了二十来个App，其中有一两个大的我一直在迭代。

So I probably got, you know, two dozen apps that I built, I've got one or two large apps that I iterate on.

我觉得如果你没有一个基础框架来用这些模型，每次从零开始想点子真的很难。

And I think that if you don't have a chassis on which to like with which to use the models, it's really hard to come up with an idea from scratch every time.

所以我会说，就去做点什么吧。

So I I'd say, like, work on something.

其实，如果它不是那种特别重要的事情反而更好，然后不断找新的方式来投入其中，把模型当作工具而不是目标来使用。

It's actually better if it's not important with a capital I, and then keep finding new ways to invest in it and add to it with a model as a kind of tool rather than as a goal.

你明白我的意思吗？

Does that make sense?

对。

Yeah.

就像，甚至可以把视角再放大一点。

Like, maybe even zooming out.

我越来越觉得，现在最需要养成的习惯之一就是，每当你准备做某件事的时候，问自己：AI能怎么帮我做这件事？

I've been thinking more and more one of the most important habits to build right now is to whenever you're about to do something, ask yourself, how can AI do this for me?

完全同意。

Totally.

我在想象这个过程，就像输入到反应，你知道，就是那种在输入和反应之间有个空间的概念，冥想能帮你在反应之前更深入地思考。

And I'm visualizing this, like, input to response, you know, like, the whole idea of there's a space between input and response, and meditation helps you think more deeply before you respond.

我觉得现在的诀窍就是，在那个瞬间插入这个思考。

And I feel like the trick now is insert in that moment.

AI能怎么帮我做这件事？

How can AI help me with this?

对。

Yeah.

不。

No.

我觉得，我是说，我也是个长期冥想者。

I think that's that's I mean, I'm also a longtime meditator.

如果你愿意，我们可以聊聊这个。

We should talk about that if you like.

但，对，我觉得你说得对。

But, yeah, I think that's right.

我觉得在日常的知识工作中，有时候对我来说没那么明显。

I think in our day to day knowledge work, sometimes it's less obvious to me.

我想我的想法是，我一直是个做消费产品的人。

I guess my mind is I've always been a consumer product person.

我特别喜欢产品。

I love products.

所以对我来说，想出一个新功能加到我的DJ直播应用里，或者我用的那种“某某领域的Google Reader”，比找到生活中可以自动化的部分要容易得多。

So for me, it's easier to think of a new feature to add to my DJ streaming app, or, you know, my sort of Google Reader for x that I use than it is to kind of find a part of my life to automate.

但你说得对，确实有些有趣的例子。

But you're right, there's some fun examples.

你知道吗，几周前我发过一个帖子，讲的是我让笔记本电脑把厨房里发生的一切都转录下来。

You know, I posted about one a few weeks ago where I had my laptop, transcribe everything that was happening in the kitchen.

然后它会根据我儿子表现好不好，来增加或减少他iPad的屏幕时间。

And then it would award or detract screen time from my son's iPad, depending on whether he was being good or bad.

这就像是一个有趣的小社会实验。

So it's like a fun little social experiment.

它还有一个有趣的结果，就是他录了一段自己不停说“爸爸我爱你”的视频，然后把它放在麦克风旁边，想黑掉这个评分系统。

It also had a fun outcome, which is that he recorded a video of himself saying I love you, dad over and over and put it next to

来操纵评分。

the mic to hack the metrics

来操纵数据。

to hack the metrics.

所以是的。

So yes.

所以是的，你知道，一旦任何东西变成了衡量标准，它就不再那么有用了。

So yes, the kind of you know, anything becomes a measure, it's no longer useful.

但这只是一个很酷的小社会实验。

But it was just a cool little social experiment.

我觉得这些东西

I think those things

特别有意思。

are super fun.

太搞笑了。

That is hilarious.

而且其中一个衡量标准就是你说了多少次“我爱你”。

And one of the so one of the measures was how often you said I love you.

我本来打算给最多的自由时间。

And I was gonna give the most free time.

他是不是

Is he

在说积极和亲社会的话，那

saying things that are positive and prosocial That's

太搞笑了。

so funny.

或者是消极和反社会的，你知道，说“我爱你”是非常亲社会的。

Or negative and antisocial, and, you know, saying I love you is very prosocial.

太有意思了。

That's so funny.

我有一个朋友，他做了个小装置，用来测量他和孩子一天中笑的次数，

I had a friend who built this little device that measured how often he and his kid laugh throughout the

一天。

day.

哦，那挺好的。

Oh, that's nice.

对。

Yeah.

他改装了一个那种无限吊坠之类的东西来做这个，然后他们每天就看那个数据。

He hacked like one of those limitless pendants to do that, and then they just looked at that metric every day.

是不是很妙？这就是我想说的，你知道吗，老兄。

Isn't that so and this is what I mean, you know, man.

我觉得我们节目到目前为止花了很多时间在聊那些高大上的话题，比如生产力、失业，还有那些听起来很重要的大话题。

Like, I think we spent a lot of the time on the show so far really, like, intriguing, talking about productivity, job loss, kind of all these, like, heady important topics with a capital I.

但你刚才描述的，比如你多久笑一次，这可不是什么创业项目。

But what you just described how often you laugh, like, that's not a startup.

这大概也不是什么有经济价值的主意。

That's probably not an economically consequential idea.

但它对我们的生活品质来说，真的很重要。

But it is for, like, the quality of our life.

我觉得我们往往认为幸福是固定的。

And I think we tend to think that happiness is fixed.

但如果它不是呢？比如说，如果我们俩活在一百年前，我们的工作会是什么？

But what if it's not, you know, if you and I were doing jobs one hundred years ago, like, what would our jobs be?

我保证肯定没现在这么酷。

I promise they'd be less cool than they are right now.

也许一百年后，它们会比现在更酷。

And maybe one hundred years from now, they'll be that much cooler.

所以我觉得常常被忽略的一点——这也是为什么我喜欢克莱尔和其他人——就是，即使这些东西没有经济上的影响，它们怎么能给我们的日常生活增添色彩呢？

So I think that the thing that gets often missed, and this is why I'm a fan of Claire and others, is just like, how can this thing add texture to our human lives even if they don't have economic consequences?

对。

Yeah.

顺着这个思路，我好像在哪里看到你有一个很有意思的观点，就是说，大的机会——可能不只是在消费领域，但广泛来说——就是这种“让我更快乐”的循环。

Along these lines, I I saw somewhere you have this really interesting take that, like, the big opportunity, maybe just in consumer, but broadly, is this idea of loop make me happier.

对。

Yeah.

说说看。

Talk about that.

哦，对。

Oh, yeah.

我是说，我觉得我们以为人们想要变得更高效，但其实他们并不想。

I mean, I think that we believe that people want to be more productive, but they don't.

我觉得更多人想要的是花时间，而不是省时间。

I think more people want to spend time than save time.

世界上最大的产品大多是娱乐和社交类的，这是有原因的。

There's a reason the biggest products in the world are kind of entertainment and social.

所以我们抓住核心，就是如何把价值传递给消费者。

So we get at the heart of how do we sort of deliver the value to the consumer.

我觉得对大多数消费者来说，你知道，我有时候开玩笑说，这就像Instagram的AI用户和X的AI用户之间的区别。

I think for most consumers, you know, sometimes I tease and I say it's like the Instagram AI user versus the x AI user.

X的AI用户呢，你知道，他们担心自己会沦为永久的下层阶级，对GLM 5.3和Kimmy K3特别有主见，他们简直太沉迷了。

The x AI users like, you know, fearful of being outside of the permanent underclass is really opinionated on glm five, three versus kimmy k three, like, they're just so pilled.

然后Instagram用户就会说，哦，这就像个更好的谷歌搜索，挺酷的，你知道，然后才明白大家为什么这么兴奋。

And then the Instagram person is like, oh, this is like a better Google search, kind of, it's cool, you know, then get what all the hype is about.

所以我觉得很多问题其实是产品设计上的失败。

So I think that a lot of the and it's really a product design failure.

我们有能力彻底改变人们的生活。

We have the capabilities to radically transform people's lives.

我是说，Lenny，从很多方面来看，我们花了四十年时间打造了一种能让电子表格更好用的技术。

I mean, Lenny, in many ways, we spent forty years building a technology that enables better spreadsheets.

对吧？

Right?

我们造出了这种能扩展智力的技术，但没有任何东西能扩展我们的灵魂。

We built this, like, technology that extends our intellect, but nothing to extend our soul.

我觉得我们有点精神上的饥渴，尤其是很多曾经满足这种需求的文化机构都消失了，特别是在美国其他地方，你知道，那里没有那么多高温瑜伽课、普拉提、断食和Friendsgiving。

And I think that we have a little bit of a spiritual hunger, especially as a lot of these cultural institutions have gone away that fulfilled that, especially in the rest of America, you know, where you don't have as many hot yoga classes and pilates and fasting and friends giving.

所以我觉得这项技术的机会就在于，嘿，消费者的基本需求，我们怎么能感到更连接、更被爱？

So I think that the opportunity for this technology is like, hey, that the basics of consumer need, how do we feel more connected, more loved?

我们怎么取得进步？

How do we make progress?

我们怎么玩得开心？

How do we have fun?

就像我们都向往的那些基本的东西，我们怎么把这些技术应用到这些领域？

Like the things that we all aspire to the basics, how do we apply these tech this technology to those areas?

这就是我想看到的更多的东西。

That's what I wanna see more of.

而且，再说一次，我不认为这是模型或能力上的挑战。

And and, again, I don't think it's a model or a capability challenge.

这只是一个产品设计上的挑战。

It's just a product design challenge.

我太喜欢这个了。

I love this so much.

我们之前聊过这个循环的想法，比如，发展我的业务。

We talked about this idea of loop, like, grow my business.

循环，找到更多销售机会。

Loop, finding more sales.

循环，处理支持工单。

Loop, close support tickets.

但你刚才描述的方式，谢谢你，你提到的那种方式。

But the way you're describing here, thank you, the way you had it.

我这里有笔记，就像循环，改善我的健康，或者循环，让我成为更好的朋友。

I have my notes here just like loop, improve my health or loop, make me a better friend.

AI完全有可能深入思考所有这些事情，并找到实际执行的方法。

And there's no reason that AI can't just think deeply and hard about all those things and figure out a way to actually do this.

对。

Yeah.

而且，你知道，看，这里有个问题我们需要调整，但我认为AI可以挑战你，推动你，甚至跟你唱反调。

And also, you know, look, there there's a you we have to dial this in, but I think there's a way that AI can sort of challenge you, can push you, can be disagreeable.

这也是为什么我认为初创公司比现有大公司更有优势。

This is also why I think startups are advantaged over incumbents.

你知道，谷歌那上千个委员会，一想到要发布一个不讨喜的模型，或者天哪，甚至可能带点性暗示，他们都会在坟墓里翻个身。但猜猜怎么着，这些都是人类生活的一部分。

You know, the idea those a thousand Google committees who would read a roll in their graves at the idea that they're going to release a model that's disagreeable, or God forbid, it should be like sexually suggestive, or but guess what, those are all parts of human existence.

所以我觉得，探索我们社交生活中那些不太舒服的部分，正是初创公司特别擅长做的事情。

So I think exploring the kind of uncomfortable parts of our social existence are things that startups are uniquely set up to do.

我知道你在消费类公司上投入了很多时间。

And I know you spent a lot of time investing in consumer companies.

我在这里听到的是，这对消费类企业来说是个巨大的机会，基本上可以打造一个应用产品，正好就是这种循环，围绕改善我和朋友、家人的关系。

What I'm hearing here is this is a big opportunity for consumer businesses to basically build a app product that is exactly this loop around, improve my connections with my friends and family.

我觉得没错。

I think that's right.

而且，你知道，我觉得到目前为止，消费者方面有点被压抑了，可能一直如此，这主要是因为，如果我们用iPhone来类比的话，我们现在相当于处在iPhone 2010年那个阶段。

And, you know, I think the thing that's held back consumers so far a little bit, and it may be held back, is just strong because if you if we kind of put this into iPhone terms, we're in iPhone twenty ten.

对吧？

Right?

iPhone 2010年是什么样子？

What is iPhone twenty ten?

我觉得现在就像是在爱彼迎、WhatsApp、优步这些重要消费公司出现之前。

I think it's pre Airbnb, pre WhatsApp, pre Uber, pre all the important kind of consumer companies.

所以现在还是早期阶段。

So it is early days.

但我觉得阻碍我们的是三件事。

But what's held us back is I think three things.

第一，模型成本太高。

One is that the models have been expensive.

所以如果你想做一个免费使用的产品，那就不太容易。

So if you want to do a kind of free to use product, it's that hasn't been easy.

第二，我们一直有界面问题，像聊天这种界面，只适合世界上最有主动性的人，比如埃隆和山姆。

The second is that we've kind of had an interface problem, like chat makes sense if you're the highest agency person in the world, which is Elon and Sam.

但对普通消费者来说，他们理想的界面是抖音。

But for the average consumer, like their ideal interface is TikTok.

所以我们需要在聊天和抖音之间找到一种中间形态。

So we need to find something between chat and TikTok.

而且，技术一直更侧重于生产力，而不是像人际联系和娱乐这样的东西。

And then the fact that the technology has been so much more focused on productivity than things like, you know, human connection and entertainment.

我觉得这些方面都还有很大的发展空间。

I think all those things are kind of up for grabs.

比如，开放权重模型让成本大大降低了。

Like the open weight models mean things are way cheaper.

我觉得我们开始讨论像“循环让我更快乐”这样的话题了。

I think that we're starting to have conversations about things like loop make me happier.

而且我觉得像尤金妮亚这样的创始人，你应该请她上节目，她非常出色，正在非常大胆地思考用户界面。

And I think that founders like Eugenia, who you should have on the show, she's tremendous, are thinking really ambitiously about user interfaces.

爱彼迎的布莱恩·切斯基，我觉得他成立了一个专注于下一代用户界面的基础实验室。

Brian Chesky from Airbnb, I think he started a foundation lab focused on next gen user interfaces.

所以我觉得这些问题都会得到解决，或者至少比两年前更有解决的可能。

So I think all those problems will get solved, or they're at least in a better position to be solved than they were two years ago.

我想回到消费者和AI这个领域，但我想先顺着这条线再聊聊对未来的乐观态度。

I wanna come back to this the whole space of consumer and AI and things like that, but I I wanna follow this thread a little bit more about just the optimism around where things might go.

对于未来，尤其是AI，大家有很多恐惧和担忧，这也很正常。

There's a lot of fear and worry about the future as with AI and just generally.

马克·安德森上节目的时候，提出了一个很有意思的观点，说AI来得正是时候，能救我们一命，因为人口在下降，生产力在下滑，还有战争、气候变化等等问题，如果没有AI来填补这个空缺，我们可就麻烦了。

Mark Andreessen, when he came on the pod, had this really interesting take that AI came just in time to save us because population is declining, productivity is going down, there's all this war, climate change, and all these things, and we would be in big trouble if AI wasn't here to fill that gap.

谈谈你更宏观的看法吧，为什么你觉得人们可能低估了AI带来的积极面和乐观情绪？

Talk about just kind of your bigger picture perspective on why you think maybe people are under underestimating the the positive and optimism around AI.

第一，我觉得AI有潜力成为一种情感和精神上的接口，让我们能够借助它去探索那些被深深埋藏的自我。

One, I think it it's a potential for it to be a sort of emotional, spiritual interface on which we can kinda get leverage and explore aspects of ourselves that have been really buried.

看看工业革命的影响，你会发现规模优势是压倒性的。

If you look at the kind of effect of the industrial revolution, it's that there are these scale advantages which are insurmountable.

虽然我显然非常支持资本主义，也热爱我们生活的这个经济体系，但我认为集权化在某种程度上抑制了个体，可能削弱了他们的身份认同。

And as much as, obviously, I'm very pro capitalism, and I love the economy that we live in, I think that centralization, it sort of discourages the individual in some ways, and it maybe detracts from their identity.

所以我觉得AI最神奇的一点是，它是一种真正能放大我们身份和自主权的技术。

So I think one of the really magical things is this is a technology that really amplifies our identity, our agency.

比如，它把技能和欲望分开了。

It kind of unbundles skill from desire, for example.

如果你想做音乐，现在就能做。

If you wanna make music, you can make music now.

你不必会弹钢琴。

You don't have to know how to play the piano.

如果你想当程序员做软件，现在也能做。

If you wanna be a programmer and make software, you can make software now.

所以它真的放大了我们的个性。

So it really amplifies our individuality.

它让我们能探索以前从未能探索的生活方面。

It allows us to explore aspects of our lives that we were never able to explore before.

而且，从实际角度来看，我们一直陷在2%的GDP增长里。

And, you know, just in terms of the nuts and bolts, like, we have been in this sort of morass of 2% GDP growth.

谁说我们就得这样？

Like, who said that we have to be there?

为什么不能是10%、15%或者20%呢？

Why can't we be 10 or 15 or 20%?

而且这项技术不仅能大幅提升生产力，还能大幅激发我们的雄心壮志。

And this is a technology with which not only can we dramatically drive productivity, we can dramatically drive ambition.

比如说，想想看，这也许有点夸张，但在五六十年代，我们相信我们无所不能。

Like, think of the maybe this is a caricature, but the nineteen fifties and nineteen sixties, we believed that we could do anything.

对吧？

Right?

我们刚从二战中走出来，那时整个经济、整个世界都以前所未有的方式动员起来。

We were coming out of World War two where the entire economy, the entire world mobilized in a way that we didn't think was possible.

莱尼，我的一个理论是，当赌注很高的时候，我们会表现得非常出色。

And one of my theories, Lenny, is that like, when the stakes are high, we are awesome.

当赌注很低的时候，我们会表现得最差。

When the stakes are low, we are at our absolute worst.

在很多方面，我觉得五年前我们生活的世界感觉像是一个低风险的世界，这就是为什么我们整个社会都有很多这样的副业，这些副业不一定有成效，也不一定让我们更快乐。

And in a lot of ways, I think the world we lived in five years ago felt like a low stakes world, which is why we kind of collectively had a lot of these, like, side projects as a society, which weren't necessarily productive or making any of us happier.

现在你看，不只是马斯克在做他的那些事，我觉得每个人都觉得自己在攀登雄心的阶梯。

And now you've got you know, it's not just Elon doing everything he's doing, but I think everybody feels like they're climbing the ambition ladder.

你得先把自己的烂点子推出去，才能发现好点子。

You ship your bad ideas so you can discover your good ideas.

如果你想做软件，那当然好。

And if you wanna, you know, build software, great.

如果你想建一座桥，现在也不一定非得是土木工程师才能懂怎么建。

If you wanna build a bridge, you don't have to be a civil architect to know how to do that anymore.

所以我真的觉得，我们正在朝着一个更快乐、更充实、更高效的社会迈进。

So I really think that we have the makings of a sort of dramatically happier, more fulfilled, more productive society.

但你看，我们现在却在讨论永久性底层阶级的问题。

And, you know, and yet we're here talking about permanent underclass.

我太喜欢这些观点了。

I love all of that.

这些听起来都特别对。

That all feels so right.

但真的很难让人完全相信。

It's so hard to really believe that.

但如果你真的看看AI崛起以来事情的发展，失业率下降了，人们赚了很多钱。

But if you actually look at how things have gone so far with the rise of AI, unemployment's down, people are making a lot of money.

当然，显然有很多人在挣扎。

Know, obviously, a lot of people are struggling.

有很多负面因素。

There's a lot of downsides.

数据中心给人们带来麻烦，诸如此类的事情。

Data centers causing problems for people, things like that.

很多很多问题。

A lot of lot of issues.

但感觉作为一个经济体和一个国家，到目前为止事情进展得还不错。

But it feels like as a economy and as a country feels like things are going well so far.

比如，他们前几天几乎治愈了某种癌症。

Like, they just almost, like, cured some kind of cancer the other day.

所以是的。

So yeah.

对。

Yeah.

你说得对。

You're right.

莫德纳刚刚做到了，我是说，达里奥能写一篇博客文章，说如果我们治愈所有疾病会怎样？

Moderna just did I mean, the fact that Dario can write a blog post and say, what happens when we cure every disease?

然后我们把它当作一个严肃的话题来讨论。

And then we debate it as a serious topic.

我们到底生活在什么样的世界里？

Like, what world are we living in here?

你知道吗？

You know?

我还觉得，我们总是集体担忧，比如那些抽象的概念，世界、普通工人、中层管理者、住在数据中心附近的人。

I also think that we're collectively worried, always, like, you know, the kind of these abstractions, the world, the average worker, the middle manager, the person who lives in the vicinity of a data center.

这些都是抽象的概念，但我们的实际生活似乎越来越充实。

These are abstractions, but our actual lives seem like they're getting more fulfilled.

我们更有能力了。

We're more capable.

我们更有主动权了。

We're more empowered.

所以我觉得这也是一个方面，而且从实际行为来看，人们更倾向于展示个人体验，而从口头表态来看，人们更倾向于表达对社会层面的观察或看法。

So I think that's also something and the revealed preferences tend to show how people are experiencing it individually, and the stated preferences tend to show how people are sort of observing it or believe it's playing out societally.

你知道吗，如果你问人们是否希望家附近建数据中心，大多数人会说不。

You know, if you ask people if they want a data center in their neighborhood, most will say no.

但如果你问他们现在是否使用ChatGPT，大多数人会说用。

But if you ask them if they use ChatGPT today, most people will say yes.

所以这就是那种矛盾所在。

So that's kind of the dissonance.

很明显的问题就是AI的公关做得不太好。

The the obvious issue is just the PR around AI has not been great.

有很多制造恐慌的言论。

There's a lot of fear mongering.

对此有什么看法？

Thoughts on on that?

那边是怎么回事？

What's going on there?

你觉得这会改变吗？

Do you think that'll change?

我们要用AI改变这种讨论氛围，最重要的事情就是把重要的东西变便宜。

The the most important thing that we can do with AI to change the kind of conversation around it is make important things cheap.

在美国，有两样东西极其重要，却越来越贵。

There's two things that are extraordinarily important in America that have only gotten more expensive.

对吧？

Right?

医疗和教育。

Health care and education.

看看医疗行业，45%的成本都花在行政管理上。

If you look at health care, 45% is administrative.

所以如果你能去掉很多行政负担，医疗成本实际上是可以下降的。

So if you take a lot of that administrative burden out, you can actually see deflationary health care costs.

还有，比如治愈所有疾病。

Also, things like curing every disease.

那听起来很棒。

That sounds awesome.

你知道，GLP-1类药物，虽然跟AI没关系，但我觉得这也是让人对医疗成本下降感到乐观的一个理由。

You know, GLP ones, also, obviously, not an AI thing, but I think is a reason to be optimistic about deflationary health costs.

然后教育也是。

And then education as well.

我觉得现在教育面临的竞争，是两百年来最强的，传统教育从来没有遇到过这样的挑战。

I think education now has the strongest form of competition, sort of traditional education that it's had in two hundred years.

而且我觉得把学习和机构分开，会带来很多好处。

And I think it's gonna be very, very good to kinda unbundle learning from institutions.

还有，顺便说一句，从证书上获得的社会地位也会被重新定义。

And and and also, by the way, like, status from credentials.

你知道吗？

You know?

就是说，你不需要哈佛的学位。

Like, you don't need a Harvard degree.

你只需要一个Git。

You just need a git.

这挺酷的。

And that's pretty cool.

我最近看到OpenAI放慢了AI开发的步伐。

I saw OpenAI recently slowed down their AI development.

他们暂停了，是的。

They paused Yeah.

他们最新模型上的强化学习阶段，因为看到了一些情况。

Their RL kind of phase on their latest model because of what they're seeing.

所以这显然让人们很担心，这些模型会变得多快多聪明。

So that's obviously a big concern for people, just how fast and smart these models get.

对此你有什么看法？

Any thoughts on just that?

这现在可是个大转变。

That's like a big shift now.

不再是一味追求最快最好的模型，而是我们真的得放慢这些发展的脚步。

Instead of race ahead to the fastest best model ever, okay, we actually have to slow these things down.

这感觉真疯狂。

That feels crazy.

我不评论OpenAI具体的事情，但我觉得我对某些事情有点怀疑。Anthropic因为有一个太危险而不能发布的模型而获得的那种光环，真是非同寻常。

I mean, without commenting on OpenAI specifically, I think that maybe I'm a little skeptical on some of these things where I think the kind of the aura that Anthropic got from having a model that was too dangerous to release was extraordinary.

也许他们只是GPU不够用。

And maybe they had a GPU shortage.

也许，你知道，模型的能力比他们预想的要更先进。

Now, maybe it was a you know, the capabilities are more advanced than they actually wanted.

也许他们其实是想把那个专有模型留在内部，以保持自己的领先优势。

You know, maybe they actually wanted to keep that proprietary model internal to extend their own lead.

所以我觉得有很多混杂的因素会让你稍微收敛一点。

So I think there's a lot of sort of confounding factors that would cause you to pull back a little bit.

说实话，我确实认真对待关于进攻性网络安全的观点，那就是我们应该先加固所有系统，然后再让它们容易被攻破。

Look, I do take the points about offensive cyber seriously, which is we should harden all of our systems before we make them trivial to penetrate.

但我觉得“模型太危险不能发布”这个概念，有点把营销、推理能力，还有经济考量混在一起了，比如你是想把竞争优势外部化，还是用它来让自己变得更强？

But I think the sort of concept of the model that's too dangerous to release, it it kind of conflates marketing, inference capacity, and then also economic considerations like, do you want to externalize your competitive advantage or use it to make yourself better?

对。

Yeah.

我每次请Anthropic和OpenAI的人来播客时都会想，当他们拥有最好的模型时，他们到底有多大优势。

I always think about that when I have folks from Anthropic and and OVA and the podcast, just like how an advantage do they have when they have the best model.

太疯狂了。

It's crazy.

对吧？

Right?

这简直就是一个循环。

Just like that's a loop right there.

只要更长时间保持最好的模型，他们就能跑得更快。

Just have the best model for longer, and they can move much faster.

不过，换个角度想想，也挺疯狂的。

It's crazy, though, you know, to take the other side for a moment.

比如，之前感觉Anthropic好像不可战胜，但现在OpenAI这六个月表现超棒，开源模型也势头很猛。

Like, it felt like Anthropica was unassailable, and now OpenAI's had an amazing six months, and open weights are also ripping.

所以，尽管那种超级智能模型完全被一家公司垄断的想法听起来挺吓人的，但到目前为止，行业趋势根本不是那样发展的。

So despite the, like, the sort of scary concept of this, like, you know, supremely intelligent model that's totally proprietary to one company, The so far, the kinda industry trends haven't played that way at all.

对。

Yeah.

比如Bot突然就冒出来了，现在成了最棒的AI助手工具。

Like, Bot just came out of nowhere and is now, like, the most amazing AI kind of assistant tool.

我完全上瘾了。

I'm just hooked on it.

天哪。

Oh, man.

我觉得我们得聊聊个人助手这个话题。

I mean, we should talk about the personal agents thing.

其实，这里我最喜欢的三款产品。

Like, actually, the three big products that I love here.

Grock机器人完全做到了。

Grock bots totally nailed it.

而且它底层的模型也很棒。

And also the model underneath it is awesome.

对吧？

Right?

它们完全是突然冒出来的。

They came out of your right out of left field.

我知道Cursor团队做了很多出色的工作。

And that's I know a lot of the good work the cursor team did.

我觉得ChatGPT也做得不错。

I think chat GPT work.

它在界面里藏得有点深，但真的非常非常好用。

It's kind of buried in the UI, but it's really, really good.

这是他们发布的最好的产品之一。

It's one of the best products they've released.

然后还有一个叫Instinct的初创公司，最近挺火的，他们做了一些更大胆、更有意思的取舍，但都是在同一个领域里。

And then there's a startup that's really getting some buzz called Instinct, which has made some more aggressive and interesting trade offs, but but all in the same domain.

太厉害了。

That's amazing.

我不知道这是不是某个人的策略，有人发了条含糊的推文，对。

I I don't know if it was a strategy for some ran someone tweeting this vague Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

发推文说这东西多棒，然后大家都说，你在说什么鬼？

Tweet about how awesome it is, and everyone's like, what the hell are you talking about?

那真的很有效，因为……那是个好办法，明白。

That was really effective because as Is that a good get that.

Chat GPT Work，就在这期节目之前播出的那期，讲的是负责那个项目的产品经理，Tara。

Chat GPT Work, the episode that will come out right before this is the PM in charge of that, Tara.

哦，真的吗？

Oh, really?

是的。

Yeah.

哎呀。

Oh, man.

他们做得真的太好了。

They they did such a good job on it.

真的，我不知道你用得有多频繁，但确实做得非常好。

It's really I don't know how much you use it, but it's really well done.

那Cowork有什么更好的地方？

What is the what is better than Cowork there?

是不是因为它跑在云端？

Is it that that runs in the cloud?

这就是最大的区别吗？

Is that the big differentiator?

它是在云端运行的。

It runs in the cloud.

它在缓存浏览器凭据方面做得很好，所以不像Grok或Instinct那么激进。

It does a good job of kind of caching browser credentials, so it's not as aggressive as Grok or Instinct.

而且它的远程功能，还有全双工语音模式。

And it also the remote feature, it's got the full duplex voice mode.

所以你真的可以直接打电话给它，它能看到你所有的线程，你可以直接跟它说，嘿，我所有的编程代理那边都发生了什么？

So you can actually just call it, it could see all your threads, and you can just talk to it and say, hey, what's happening across all my coding agents across this?

你能改一下吗？

Can you change that?

所以就是因为全双工语音太好了，你真的觉得是在给你的助手打电话，它知道你世界里发生的一切。

So it's just because the full duplex voice is so good, you really feel like you're calling your assistant who knows everything that's happening in your world.

而用Grok的话，就是一种单向的转录。

Whereas with Grok, it's a sort of one way transcription.

对吧？

Right?

或者用其他一些助手，就是文字形式。

Or with some of the other assistants, it's a text.

所以语音加上那种能看所有线程的模型，确实做得很好。

So the voice plus the kind of model that can see all threads is really well done.

太棒了。

Awesome.

好的。

Okay.

我想回到这个AI助手消费类的话题，但先想把这个话题收个尾。

I wanna come back to this AI assistant consumer stuff, but just something I wanted to kind of close the thread on.

我觉得关于AI对就业和经济的影响，我几乎把它看作一个光谱：一边是达里奥那种观点，说50%的知识工作会被颠覆，我们会面临大规模失业；另一边是萨克斯、大卫·萨克斯那种观点，说这会非常棒。

I feel like there's in terms of jobs and the economy as a result of AI, I see it almost as the spectrum of there's, like, the Dario end of the spectrum of 50% of knowledge work will be disrupted, and we're gonna have massive unemployment to, like, the Sachs, David Sachs spectrum of, like, it's gonna be incredible.

就业不会有问题。

Jobs are gonna be fine.

到目前为止，一切都朝着好的方向发展。

So far, everything is pointing in a good direction.

很明显，你更倾向于萨克斯的观点。

Clearly, you're closer to the Sachs direction.

还有没有其他类似的想法，能让大家对未来就业更乐观一些？

Is there anything else just along the lines that you think might make people feel better about jobs in the future?

我觉得，人类历史的整个趋势就是，我们的欲望增长得比我们满足欲望的能力更快。

I mean, I think that the entire trend of human existence has been that our desires grow faster than our ability to fulfill them.

看看今天被视为理所当然的东西，五百年前都是难以想象的奢侈品，甚至五十年前的心理治疗，一百年前的抗生素，都是如此。

If you look at the things that are expectations today, they were unimaginable luxuries five hundred years ago, even fifty years ago for things like therapy, right, or things like antibiotics a hundred years ago.

对吧？

Right?

不管多有钱，你就是得不到这些东西。

I mean, didn't matter how rich you were, you simply didn't have access to it.

所以我觉得我们低估了人类的野心和欲望。

So I think we're underestimating human ambition, human desire.

你知道，二十年后人们会因为没有在火星上有个度假屋而生气。

You know, people are gonna be mad that they don't have a vacation home on Mars in twenty years.

真的，特别生气。

Like, really mad.

就是，特别特别生气。

Like, this really mad.

他们会在Instagram上看到别人晒，然后说，亲爱的，咱们得加把劲了。

They'll be seeing it on Insta and be like, come on, babe.

我们得，嗯，更努力工作，让这成为现实。

We gotta, like, work harder and make this happen.

每个CEO都会想建立更大的公司。

Every CEO is gonna wanna build a much bigger company.

所以我觉得，我们现在的生活已经比一百年前能想象的要宏大得多了。

So I don't think already it feels like we're living a much larger form of sort of human existence than we could have imagined a hundred years ago.

而且没有理由认为这种趋势不会继续，甚至加速。

And there's no reason that trend won't continue or accelerate.

说到野心这个词，

This idea of ambition,

我很高兴你又提到了这个词。

was I'm glad you brought that word up again.

这个播客里经常提到，AI不仅让人更容易变得更有野心，而且几乎逼着我们不得不更有野心，因为现在所有简单的事情大家都能做。

It's something that's coming up a lot on this podcast that not only is AI making it easy to be a lot more ambitious, it's almost making us have to be more ambitious because everybody else can just do all the easy stuff now.

现在区分我们的就是你能做多大。

And now what separates us is just how big can you go.

好。

Okay.

我要做个个人网站。

I'm gonna make a personal website.

好。

Okay.

挺酷的。

It's cool.

就会是那种白色、简洁的背景。

It'll be this white, simple background.

不。

No.

好。

Okay.

我要把它做成一个3D游戏，你得在里面走遍一个世界，去发现所有你喜欢的东西，一切都越来越宏大。

I'm gonna make it this three d game where you have to, like, walk through a world and discover all the things that you like, everything is just getting more epic.

对于野心这个概念，你怎么看？它好像正在变成一种更重要的技能和习惯。

Thoughts on just this idea of ambition becoming a bigger, I don't know, skill and habit.

很多事情都被混为一谈了，因为当我们在播客里提到野心时，我觉得大家心里都有一个特定的理解，比如成为创始人、打造一个漂亮的软件产品那种野心。

A lot of things get conflated because when you and I say ambition on this pod, I think people have a very specific idea of what that ambition is, you know, ambition to be a founder, to build a beautiful software product.

那些只是野心的一种。

Like, those are types of ambition.

但野心还有其他类型。

But there are other types of ambition.

咱们来聊聊创意方面的野心吧。

Let's talk about creative ambition.

你知道吗，五岁的时候，没人会说，Lenny，你画画好，但素描不行。

You know, when you're five, nobody says, Lenny, you're good at painting, but you're bad at drawing.

你只是有股冲动或者渴望去做点什么，然后就去做。

You know, you just have an ambition or a desire to make something and you make it.

这种特质很特别，现在其实可以好好鼓励一下。

Like, that's something that's very unique and can now actually be encouraged.

想想那种很接地气的野心。

You know, think of very local ambition.

比如，英国有国民健康服务体系。

So, you know, they have the NHS in The United Kingdom.

我觉得那是个备受珍视的机构，但运作得不太好。

I think it's a sort of treasured institution that's not working well.

也许AI在他们社会里的应用方式，就是让NHS变得像iPhone一样好用。

Maybe the way AI shows up in their society is making, like, the NHS as good as the iPhone.

对吧？

Right?

这对他们来说非常具体且本地化，或者仅仅是想要和家人更亲近、成为更称职的父母的愿望。

That's very specific and local to them or simply the ambition to be more connected to our family, to be more present parents.

所以，抱负不一定非得是狭义的经济意义上的那种。

So the ambition doesn't have to be sort of ambition in the narrow economic sense.

它可以是我们想做的任何事情，谁心里没有这样的渴望呢？

It can be really anything that we wanna do more of, and who doesn't have that in their bones?

对。

Yeah.

这么一想，我的例子就显得特别蠢了。

That's such like, my example is so dumb now that I think about it.

感觉我们需要在脑子里解锁的东西就是，好吧。

Like, the it feels like the thing we have to unblock in our brain is like, okay.

AI，解决癌症。

AI, solve cancer.

我们不是，不是像那样，现在我们可以开始那样想了，这对我们来说太不自然了，尤其是作为产品人，总是要考虑MVP和各种限制。

We're not we're not like like, that's where we can start to think now, and it's so unnatural to us, especially as product people that always have to think about the MVP and the constraints.

现在我们必须想得大一点。

Now we have to think big.

好的。

Okay.

这个的十倍、千倍版本会是什么样？

What can what's the big for what's the 10 x, the thousand x version of this?

是的。

Yes.

我知道。

I know.

对吧？

Right?

某种程度上，我们必须想得小，因为我们一生都在围绕软件和智能的珍贵性来构建，而现在它们完全不珍贵了。

In a way, we have to think small because this thing that we've our whole lives have been built around how precious software and intelligence is, and now it's totally not precious.

这可能是你和我更难适应的变化。

Like, that probably will be a harder change for you and I.

对。

Yeah.

所以，所有这些新的小习惯。

So, like, all these new little habits.

我经常想到Claude Co。

I think a lot about on the Claude Co.

团队，他们有一个原则。

Team, they have a principle.

你知道什么比我自己做更好吗？

You know what's better than me doing it?

让Claude来做。

It's Claude doing it.

这就在团队每个人身上养成了这个习惯。

And that just created this habit in everyone on the team.

我怎么让Claude帮我做这件事呢？

How do I have Claude do this thing for me?

我觉得这是我们大家都得开始在心里建立的一种思维，而GrokBot在这方面做得特别好。

And I feel like that's a thing we all have to start to build in our head, and and GrokBot's really good at that.

不是说我是投资人，也不是有什么关联，但它就是那么简单，而且做得很好。

Like, not an investor, not no affiliation, but it's just, like, so simple and good at the stuff.

我也觉得通过动手做能学到很多东西。

Also think that there is so much learning that happens through doing.

你知道吗，挺有意思的。

You know, it's funny.

你看，谈论vibe coding的人数和谈论自己项目的人数相比，大家其实有点不好意思。

If you look at the number of people that are talking about vibe coding versus the number of people that are talking about their projects, People are a little embarrassed.

我也有点不好意思谈我的很多项目，因为它们看起来不够重要或者不够有分量。

I'm a little embarrassed to talk about a lot of my projects because they don't seem important or substantial enough.

但其中很大一部分是通过执行或发布来学习，或者通过执行和发布获得满足感。

But so much of it is learning through execution or shipping or or being fulfilled through execution and shipping.

我觉得这一点我们也不能低估。

Like, I don't think we can underestimate that either.

我有一个

I have a

来自谷歌的一位做实验室相关工作的朋友，正在写一篇客座文章。我不想提前透露太多，但简单来说，她的观点是，现在“构建”就像以前的“阅读”一样，通过构建来学习、来体验，而且大部分成果被丢弃也没关系，因为那仍然是在锻炼你的能力。

guest post coming together from someone at Google that works on a lot of their lab stuff, and I don't wanna give away the the goods, but just broadly her concept is that building is now the new reading where you build to learn and infuse an experience, and it's totally okay for most of it to go thrown away because that's still building your your muscle.

对。

Yeah.

说得太好了。

So well said.

是的。

Yeah.

构建是一种活动，而不是一种结果。

It's building as an activity rather than an outcome.

对吧？

Right?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得很多人会为此感到难过。

Which I think a lot of people feel bad.

我发布了所有这些作品，但没人用。

I shipped all these things, but no one's using it.

我自己也从来不用。

I never use it.

我觉得关键就在于，这其实没关系，完全没问题。

And I think that the key here is, like, that's actually okay, and that's totally fine.

天哪。

Oh, man.

我是说，这在其他领域也经常发生。

I mean and it it happens in every other domain.

你知道吗？

You know?

比如我做个DJ混音，可能就三个人听，我自己听了上百遍。

Like, I make a DJ set and, like, three people listen to it, and I listen to it a 100 times.

我觉得这挺有成就感的。

And I'd say, like, it's very fulfilling.

人多人少无所谓。

It doesn't matter.

对。

Mhmm.

我们待会儿再聊你DJ的事。

We're gonna talk about your DJ stuff later.

好。

Okay.

好。

Okay.

好。

Okay.

咱们回到消费者领域的话题吧。

Let's come back to consumer stuff.

所以你在16z这边主要关注消费者领域。

So you focus on consumer at a 16 z.

现在消费者领域大概是什么情况？

What's kinda like what's happening in consumer these days?

整体格局是什么样的？

What's kind of like the landscape?

你对什么比较感兴趣？

What are you excited about?

我觉得主要有三大块。

So I think there's three big areas.

就像我们刚才聊到的，现在还处于非常早期的阶段。

We're very early as we kinda discussed.

实验室做得不错，但面向大众市场的独立消费产品还不多。

You know, the labs have done a good job, but there aren't as many sort of independent mass market consumer products.

编程代理真的很棒，我觉得简直是划时代的。

Coding agents are awesome, and I think a total lightning bolt.

你知道，说大多数人不想写代码很容易。

You know, I think it's easy to say most people don't want to make code.

但我观念上的重大转变是，编程代理是一种与整个世界互动的方式。

But the the big change in my thinking is that coding agents are a way to interact with the world generally.

你在X上已经看到很多这样的例子了。

And you've seen a lot of this on x.

比如，人们用代码来编辑视频，或者用代码创建游戏，在飞机上和孩子一起玩。

You know, people use quad code to edit videos, you know, or codecs to, you know, create a game that they play with their kid on an airplane ride.

这就像是一种通用的解决问题工具，消费者可以用它来做各种独特的事情。我们投资的最好的例子可能就是Wabi，它有点像一个小应用平台。

Like, there it's sort of this general problem solving tool that consumers can use in very unique ways, you know, and and probably the best example company we've invested in is Wabi, where it's sort of a platform for mini apps.

人们可以创建、使用和分享这些小应用。

People can create them, consume them, share them.

所以编程代理是我认为很重要的一个大领域。

So coding agents is one big area I think that's important.

个人代理方面，我们在OpenClaw上经历了一个可信的时刻。

Personal agents, we had this credible moment around OpenClaw.

但你猜怎么着？

But guess what?

OpenClaw是开发者用的东西，当然还有Hermes和mold book，所有这些现在都在被整合成大众市场消费者和企业代理，人们能理解的那种，这就是我们之前讨论过的。

OpenClaw is a dev thing, you know, and Hermes, of course, and mold book, like all of that is now getting distilled into mass market consumer and enterprise agents that people understand, which is what we discussed previously.

最后我要说的是娱乐，但这个词其实不太准确。

And then the last is I'm gonna call it entertainment, that that doesn't fully do it justice.

我觉得这里面有很多创意工具，Suna做得非常出色。

I think that it's a lot of sort of creative tools, you know, Suna has done such an amazing job.

还有陪伴类产品，整个这个领域，说起来有点让人不自在。

It's companionship products, all that that entire areas, you know, uncomfortable to talk about.

所以我觉得这个领域讨论得不够多，但那里有一些规模巨大、增长迅速的产品。

So I think it's under discussed, but there's some huge fast growing products there.

所以我觉得这就是我们现在关注的三大领域。

So I think those are the three big areas that we're watching right now.