BBC 全球故事

嗨。

Hey.

我是阿尔·弗兰肯。

It's Al Franken here.

其实我很喜欢BBC，他们请我向大家推荐他们的新每日新闻播客。

You know, I'm a big fan of the BBC, and they've asked me to share their new daily news podcast with you.

我们可以看到，世界正在发生变化。

And we can see that the world is changing.

美国以及特朗普第二任期所做出的决策，不仅加速了这种变化，也是这种变化的体现。

Decisions made in The US and by the second Trump administration are accelerating that change, but they are also a symptom of it.

《全球故事》聚焦于世界与美国交汇的这个关键点。

The Global Story focuses on this intersection where the world and America meet.

这档节目由BBC国际新闻部支持，由华盛顿的阿斯玛·哈利德主持。

The show is backed by the BBC's International Newsroom and is hosted by Asma Khalid in DC.

你可能熟悉她，她曾是NPR的白宫特派记者，还有伦敦的特里斯坦·雷蒙德。

You might know her as a former NPR White House correspondent and Tristan Redmond in London.

他们一起努力理解这个不断变化的世界，每天工作日都会推出新一期。

Together, they're trying to make sense of a world in flux with new episodes every weekday.

我想放一段他们最近的节目给你听。

I wanna play you a bit of one of their recent episodes.

这一期叫《为零核武》，讲的是那个让乌克兰失去信任的协议。

It's called nukes for nothing, the deal that broke Ukraine's trust.

它聚焦于一个让泽连斯基最近与各国领导人会面时总感到似曾相识的历史时刻。

It's about the moment in history that's been giving Zelensky a bit of deja vu in his recent meetings with world leaders.

1994年，乌克兰放弃了全球第三大的核武库，作为交换，美国、英国和俄罗斯给了他们安全保证。

Back in 1994, Ukraine surrendered the world's third largest nuclear arsenal, and in exchange, they got security assurances from The US, The UK, and Russia.

如果你喜欢这段内容，可以在你常用的播客平台搜索《全球故事》，收听特里斯坦·里特曼的节目。

If you like what you hear, find The Global Story wherever you get your podcasts over to Tristan Rittmann.

在所有关于乌克兰的和平谈判中，总有一个说法反复出现。

In all the peace talks about Ukraine, there's one phrase which keeps coming up again and again.

我们会讨论许多重要的议题。

We will talk about many important topics.

第一个是安全保证。

The first one is security guarantees.

安全保证，这太重要了。

Security guarantees, so important.

安全保证。

Security guarantees.

安全保证。

Security guarantees.

因为当我们谈到安全保证时，其实谈的是整个欧洲大陆的安全。

Because when we speak about security guarantees, we speak about the whole security of the European continent.

本周四，主要的西方国家与乌克兰总统泽连斯基会面，试图弄清楚这句话到底是什么意思。

On Thursday this week, most of the major western powers met with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to work out what this phrase even means.

问题是，如果俄罗斯再次发动攻击，到底谁会真正来帮乌克兰？

The question is, if Russia attacks again, who will actually show up to help Ukraine?

这目前是和平进程最大的障碍之一，而问题在于，乌克兰之前就在这上面吃过亏。

It's one of the biggest things standing in the way of peace right now, and the problem is this is exactly where Ukraine's been burnt before.

周四，泽连斯基站在法国总统身旁说：我们不希望布达佩斯备忘录重演。

Standing next to the French president on Thursday, Volodymyr Zelensky said We don't want a repeat of the Budapest memorandum.

今天这期节目，我们回溯上一次美国承诺保障乌克兰安全的经过，以及乌克兰为何不再信任西方。

Today on the show, we go back to the last time The US promised to keep Ukraine safe and why Ukraine doesn't trust the West anymore.

来自BBC，我是特里斯坦·雷德曼，欢迎收听《全球故事》。

From the BBC, I'm Tristan Redman, and this is The Global Story.

你知道吗？上世纪九十年代初，乌克兰曾是全球第三大核武国家。

Did you know that in the early nineteen nineties, Ukraine was the world's third largest nuclear power?

它的核弹头数量比法国、英国和中国加起来还多。

They had more warheads than France, The UK, and China combined.

我们今天要讲的故事，就从这里开始——当时美国和俄罗斯试图说服乌克兰放弃核武器。

The story we're telling today begins here, when The US and Russia tried to convince Ukraine to give up its nukes.

而在这个过程中，他们或许为如今这场战争埋下了伏笔。

And in the process, they might have laid the groundwork for the war we're seeing today.

一切始于苏联解体之时。

It all starts when the Soviet Union fell.

我1991年到莫斯科的时候，正好赶上苏联解体。

So I arrived in Moscow in '91 just as the Soviet Union was collapsing.

我的同事安德鲁·哈丁在九十年代一直常驻那里，自2022年乌克兰战争爆发以来，他也持续做了大量报道。

My colleague Andrew Harding was based there throughout the nineteen nineties, and he's reported extensively on the war in Ukraine since 2022.

那时候，其他所有东西也在崩塌。

At the same time, everything else was collapsing.

卢布贬值，经济崩溃，人们对国家、对资本主义的理解全乱了套，一片混乱。

The ruble, the currency was collapsing, the economy, everybody's sense of what a state was, what capitalism was, everything was in utter chaos.

我特别记得那些退休老人，积蓄一夜归零，坐在地铁站外的雪地里，踩着小板凳，拼命卖点家传物件，只为了换几块钱买一条面包——那面包以前是他们觉得理所当然的东西，转眼间却贵得离谱。

So the memories I particularly have of pensioners who saw their savings wiped out, sitting on little stools in the snow outside metro stations, trying to sell anything they could, their heirlooms, to try to earn enough to afford a loaf of bread, which overnight had gone from something they took for granted to something astronomical.

我记得坐出租车时，发现一夜之间人人都成了司机。

I remember you take taxi rides and everybody had become a taxi driver overnight.

只要有一辆车，就整天整夜在外面跑，就为了挣点硬通货。

Anyone with a car was out there all day, all night trying to earn hard currency.

你可能会搭上一位核物理学家的车，因为他正拼命赚钱，真金白银地赚，毕竟卢布不值钱，国家也早破产了，根本发不出工资。

So you'd get a ride in some nuclear physicist's car, because he was trying to earn a buck, literally a buck, because a ruble wasn't worth his time and he certainly wasn't getting paid anything enough from the state, which really was was bankrupt.

你去乌克兰的时候，感觉也一样吗？

Did it feel the same when you visited Ukraine?

在很多方面，乌克兰的情况更糟，因为它有大量苏联时期的重工业，但这些产业几乎一夜之间就全垮了。

In many ways, Ukraine was even worse because Ukraine had so much of the old Soviet heavy industry, but all those industries just died almost overnight.

工厂纷纷破产。

The factories went bankrupt.

你们西方常提到大萧条，美国的大萧条。

So for instance, you talk about in the West about the Great Depression, America's Great Depression.

乌克兰的经济崩溃要剧烈得多。

Ukraine's economic collapse was far more spectacular.

九十年代初，他们的GDP、经济产出直接腰斩。

Their GDP, their economic output was halved in the early nineties.

这比大萧条严重多了。

That's far more than the Great Depression.

人口也急剧减少。

Demographic collapse.

人们不再生孩子了。

People stopped having babies.

大家都想出国去挣钱。

People tried to leave to go abroad to find money.

经济困难达到了惊人的程度。

Extraordinary economic hardships.

在这一切混乱之中，还存在着一种对核武器失控的担忧。

So in among all this chaos, there's also a perceived threat of nuclear warfare and weapons kind of

局势正在失去控制。

getting out of control.

乌克兰在这场风波中扮演了什么角色？

How is Ukraine wrapped up in all that?

西方国家的注意力全都集中在莫斯科、克里姆林宫和俄罗斯身上。

So the West sides are all on Moscow, on the Kremlin, on Russia.

他们的关注点就在这里。

That's where their focus is.

突然间，大家意识到，乌克兰这个大国，一夜之间成了全球第三大核武国家。

Suddenly, they wake up to the fact, we all wake up to the fact that this is massive country, Ukraine, that overnight is the world's third largest nuclear power.

真是令人震惊。

And wow.

我们该怎么应对这件事？

What are we gonna do about that?