2026年奥斯卡终极预测：谁将胜出，谁该胜出

真恶心。

Disgusting.

是的。

Yeah.

听好了。

Well, listen.

回到节目上来。

Back to the show.

我认为金可能开场是有可能的。

I think it's possible that Golden That was could open the show.

对。

Yeah.

我对你说谎感觉像是节目中间的一个重要部分。

I lied to you feels like a big centerpiece in the middle of the show.

没错。

Right.

迈尔斯·卡登将进行表演。

And Miles Caden will be performing.

是的。

Yes.

他会的。

He will.

还有许多其他艺人，我觉得布里妮·霍华德也会参与其中。

Along many other I think Britney Howard will be a part of that as well.

听起来杰米·劳森也会在那场演出中登台。

Sounds like Jamie Lawson will be on stage during that as well.

所以我觉得这会非常有趣

So I think it'll be a pretty fun

蜜丝蒂·科普兰确认了吗？

Is Misty Copeland confirmed?

她已经确认了。

She is confirmed.

那就是那位芭蕾舞者。

Which is The ballerina.

这真是一个绝妙的暗讽，因为除了米丝蒂·科普兰本身就是最受赞誉的美国芭蕾舞者之一，她还是最早穿着Marty Supreme夹克拍照的人之一。

An an amazing subtweet because in addition to Misty Copeland just being one of the most celebrated American ballerinas, she was also one of the first people to pose in a Marty Supreme jacket.

哇。

Wow.

有意思。

Interesting.

是的。

Yeah.

她不是曾经和一位车手交往过吗？那位车手是世界上最著名的F1车手。

And didn't she used to date f one driver who's the most famous f one driver in world?

刘易斯·汉密尔顿。

Lewis Hamilton.

谢谢。

Thank you.

他们约会过吗？

Did they date?

我不清楚这一点。

I don't know about that.

刘易斯·汉密尔顿到底有没有和谁约会，这似乎有点基于一种‘谁在乎’的心态。

Who Lewis Hamilton is, quote, unquote, dating or not dating, it just seems a little based on, like, who needs Okay.

拍照作秀而已。

Photo ops.

我只是想说，米丝蒂今年与许多最佳影片提名作品有着独特的关系。

I just mean Misty has a unique relationship to a lot of the best picture nominees this year.

因为刘易斯·汉密尔顿是某部影片的制片人。

I because Lewis Hamilton is a producer of

我搜了一下米丝蒂·科普兰和刘易斯·汉密尔顿，没找到相关消息，可能是我记错了。

f I have googled Misty Copeland Lewis Hamilton, and I'm not finding anyone I misspoke then.

但你知道米丝蒂·科普兰做过什么吗？

But you know what Misty Copeland has done?

把芭蕾跳得非常出色。

Be amazing at ballet.

明白了。

Got it.

我很期待看到她。

I'm excited to see her.

是的。

Yeah.

大概她不会去弹班卓琴吧。

Presumably, she's not, like, playing the banjo.

她会在表演中跳舞。

She's gonna dance during that performance.

哦，太棒了。

Oh, dope.

在那之后的广告时段，我将表演电影《列车梦》中的《列车梦》。

And then during the commercial break right after that, I will be performing Train Dreams from the film Train Dreams.

所以我们将在Instagram上直播这个。

So we'll go live on IG with that.

对吧，杰克？

Right, Jack?

这样会很好吗？

That'll be good?

百分之百。

100%.

好的。

Okay.

酷。

Cool.

我们还应该期待些什么？

Other things we should expect.

你知道吗？

You know what?

这周我上了比尔·西蒙斯的播客，聊了聊这部剧和电视转播。

I was on Bill Simmons' podcast this week talking about the show, the telecast.

我们稍微谈了一下致敬环节。

We talked a bit about the in memoriam.

是的。

Yeah.

这是他长期以来的兴趣，我们讨论了他们可能会怎么做。

A longtime fascination of his, and we talked about what they might do.

他提出了一个有趣的想法，我希望他们能采纳，就是我们之前推测过，可能会有一个完整环节专门致敬罗伯特·雷德福，因为我们知道芭芭拉·史翠珊将要表演——我们听说了。

And he pitched an interesting idea, which I hope they do, which is, you know, we had speculated that there might be an entire moment dedicated to Robert Riford because we know Barbara Streisand is going to perform presumably We heard.

有报道，也有一定依据地推测过。

Was reported, it was speculated with some knowledge.

对。

Right.

但他建议，或许应该为罗伯特·雷德福、黛安·基顿、罗伯特·杜瓦尔、吉恩·哈克曼和罗布·莱纳分别设立单独的致敬时刻。

But he said maybe there should be four or five individual breakout moments for Robert Redford, Diane Keaton, Robert Duvall, Gene Hackman, Rob Reiner.

在过去十二个月里，有几位备受尊敬的好莱坞老前辈离世了。

We have a number of very venerated veterans of Hollywood who passed away in the last twelve months.

我觉得这会很棒。

I think that'd be cool.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这样很合适。

I think that'd be appropriate.

据报道，许多与这些已故人士有关联的人士将重返奥斯卡，从时间安排的角度来看，这表明至少应该为每个人单独设立致敬环节，而不是把所有人挤在一起。

It the number of people who have been who are connected to those individuals who have been reported to be coming back to the Oscars suggests that that it would be at least individual moments as opposed to being cramped altogether just from a time perspective.

我同意。

I agree.

我知道你不在乎，但我真希望看到一个真正的精彩片段集锦，比如为每个人制作一个两分半钟的片段，展示这些活到七八十岁、工作了五十年的人的全部成就。

I I would just I know you don't care, but I would love to see it, like, a real clip reel, like an like, two and a half minute clip reel for each person that is just like, here is the totality of these people's all these people who lived into their seventies and eighties, you know, who worked for fifty years.

这就是他们呈现在银幕上的内容。

This is what they put on screen.

让我们明确一下我对剪辑片段的看法。

Let's be clear about my feelings about clip reels.

我认为我不介意，甚至喜欢你所描述的那种精心剪辑的蒙太奇。

I think I don't mind and even enjoy a well edited montage, which is what you are describing.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为毫无意义且常常适得其反的是那些四秒钟的表演片段，人们只是在毫无上下文的情况下声嘶力竭地大喊。

What I think is fruitless and often counterproductive are the four second acting bites that show up of people just screaming at their top at the top of their lungs contextless before.

那不是表演。

It's that's not acting.

那无法传达这些演员真正出色的表现。

That's not communicating what these performers did so well.

我们各自坚持自己的观点。

We agree to disagree.

我真的不知道你在说什么。

I just I have no idea what you're talking about.

我觉得这太疯狂了。

I think that's insane.

好吧。

Okay.

节目的时长。

Runtime of the show.

你觉得我们会

How how long do think we're

持续多久？

gonna be?

我们自己稍微琢磨了一下，想弄清楚什么时候在YouTube上直播。

Doing this ourselves a bit because we were trying to figure out when we would go live on YouTube.

没错。

That's right.

三点半七分。

Three thirty seven.

去年的直播时长是三个小时五十分钟。

Last year's telecast was three hours and fifty minutes.

哇。

Wow.

这次会更长吗？

Will this be longer?

你觉得这次会更短吗？

This you think this will be shorter?

那么，去年他们演了多少场？

Well, how many performances did they do last year?

我说不准，但我觉得大概数量差不多。

I can't I I think around the same number.

是的。

Yeah.

他们一直在缩减规模，这很好。

They've been scaling it back, which is good.

好的。

Okay.

所以，对于我所说的比今年更低调一些的奥斯卡颁奖典礼，时长会是三个小时。

So three hours for what I would describe as a a slightly more subdued Oscars than this year's will be.

我觉得今年的奖项竞争充满活力。

I think there's a lot of energy around the race this year.

我不知道收视率会不会更高，我稍后会问你这个问题，但感觉《过往人生》和《罪人》这两部电影的观众覆盖面远比去年主导的《阿诺拉》要广。

I don't know if the ratings are gonna be higher, and I'll ask you about that in a second, but does feel like One Battle and Sinners are two very widely seen movies relative to something like Anora, which dominated last year.

所以我不确定。

So I don't know.

我觉得四个小时是有可能的。

I I four hours feels in play.

但他们也增加了一个奖项类别。

But they also added a category too.

这是个好观点，杰克。

That's a good point, Jack.

他们知道要颁发24个奖项。

They they know it's 24 categories to give out.

好的。

Okay.

那我们得开始考虑整晚的零食节奏了。

Then we're gonna have to start thinking about, like, snacks pacing over the course of the night.

我想去吃SugarFish。

I wanna do SugarFish.

我们干脆去SugarFish吧？

Can we just do SugarFish?

哦，当晚餐吗？

Oh, for dinner?

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Absolutely.

但这样的话，这就要四个小时了。

But then that this this is four hours.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

然后你得继续保持那个嗯。

And then you gotta keep the the Mhmm.

血糖

The blood sugar

保持住。

up.

我们给你调一杯莫吉托。

We'll get a mojito going for you.

别担心。

Don't worry.

评分是上升还是下降？

Ratings, up or down?

去年它们稍微下降了一点。

I they were slightly down last year.

那么在哪里

So where

今年它们会去哪里？

do they go this year?

我的意思是，从来没有人靠预测奥斯卡收视率会上升而变得更富有。

I mean, no one's ever gotten richer by predicting that the Oscars ratings would go up.

所以

So

你说得对。

You're right.

但《黄金》和《罪人》是两个非常引人注目的大事件，你瞧。

But Golden and Sinners are two big flashing, check this out thing going on.

我同意。

I agree.

我的意思是，我觉得老实说会是平平无奇？

I mean, I I think it's gonna honestly be Flat?

是的。

Yeah.

就像只在小数点后几位有差别。

Like, a matter of decimal points.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得你说得对。

I think you're right.

我不确定。

I don't know.

现在体育界有点平静，这也是我一直在想的事。

It's kind of a quiet time in sports right now, and that's something else I was thinking about.

目前没有一部重磅的HBO周日晚间剧集。

There's not a whole there's not a big HBO Sunday night show at the moment.

现在也没有什么真正能与之竞争的节目。

There's not it's not competing with really anything right now.

好的。

Okay.

特别是如果美国队从世界棒球经典赛中被淘汰的话。

Especially if the especially if The USA is eliminated from the World Baseball Classic.

你昨晚有看世界棒球经典赛发生了什么吗？

Did you see what happened last night in the World Baseball Classic?

我不知道世界棒球经典赛正在举行。

I did not know that the World Baseball Classic was happening.

真是个彻底的灾难。

What an absolute fiasco.

他们以六比八输给了意大利。

They lost to Italy eight to six.

哦，不。

Oh, no.

美国队主教练以为他们已经晋级到淘汰赛阶段。

States manager believed they had already moved on to the elimination round.

因此有人推测，他可能是基于以为球队已经出线这一点来排布阵容的。

So there's a suggestion that maybe he set the lineup based on the fact that they thought that they had already advanced.

而如今，根据比赛结果，我敢肯定，当人们听到这段内容时，意大利和墨西哥的比赛结果已经出来了。

And now based on the outcome, I'm sure the the outcome of Italy and Mexico will have happened by the time people listen to this.

但不管怎样，作为一个棒球迷，昨晚真是……

But, anyway, just as a baseball fan last night, was

这到底怎么回事？

like, what the hell is going on here?

美国队都有谁上场？

Who's on the US team?

哦，有不少人呢。

Oh, quite a few people.

是的

Yeah.

美国

United States.

布莱斯·哈珀

Bryce Harper.

布莱斯·哈珀、亚伦·贾吉，一些大牌球星

Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, some major stars.

好的

Okay.

但昨晚他们俩都没在关键时刻发挥作用

Neither of whom came through in a big spot last night.

嗯

Mhmm.

艰难的时刻

Challenging times.

总之，我们继续吧。

Anyway, moving on.

这里有个有趣的问题，作为我们预测的铺垫。

Here's an interesting precursor question to our predictions.

会有多少部电影获得奥斯卡奖呢，嗯。

How many Oscars Mhmm.

《罪人》会获奖吗？

Will sinners win?

我根据我的预测有一个答案。

I have an answer based on my predictions.

你想让我说出来吗？

Do you want me to give that?

或者这好像剧透了。

Or that seems like spoiling it.

多于还是少于两部？

More or less than two?

更多。

More.

多于还是少于三部？

More or less than three?

更多。

More.

好的。

K.

那《一个接一个的战斗》会赢得多少座奥斯卡奖呢？

What about how many Oscars will one battle after another win?

我没算过。

I didn't count.

但我今天早上洗澡时大概想了一下。

But I but I did sort of in the shower this morning.

我不知道确切的数字。

I I don't know an exact number.

还是少于三个？

Or less than three?

更多。

More.

多于还是少于四个？

More or less than four?

更多。

More.

很有趣。

Intriguing.

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

我的理论，也许这可以作为一个不错的过渡。

My my theory and maybe this is, you know, a good segue.

我们昨晚非常焦虑。

We were we were very anxious last night.

这是令人兴奋的一年，真正酷的一年，但对于两个不喜欢在公众或私下出错的人来说，这也是令人烦恼的一年。

This is an exciting year, a really cool year, and also for two people who don't like to be wrong in public or private, a vexing year.

所以昨晚九点四十五分左右，我们一直在发短信，讨论那些我们还没做出决定的各个类别，不知道该怎么办。

And so we were texting last night at, like, 09:45 about various categories in which we still hadn't made a decision in in which we didn't know what to do.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我们都觉得，这些事情根本无法凑成一个合理的整体。

And we both shared the sentiment that it's just it's not adding up in a way that makes sense to us.

没错。

That's right.

总体来看，根本无法加总。

The the the aggregate is not aggregating.

正如你所说，平衡根本无法达成。

The balance, as you said, is not balancing.

我认为其中一部分原因在于，我们利用了自己几十年来对奥斯卡的痴迷，以及学院以往的做法和这些奖项通常的走向，来塑造我们的预测。

And I think some of that is because we use our long you know, our decades of Oscar nerdism and what the academy has done before and how these races usually play out to, to shape how we make our predictions.

我认为在大约一半的类别中，这种做法是有用的。

And I think in a few in about half the categories, that's useful.

而在其他情况下，我觉得今年会非常不同。

And otherwise, I think it's gonna be a really different year.

我认为我们所期待的许多惯例，甚至包括那些预告指标或风向标，都在出错或转向其他方向。

And I think a lot of the norms that we expect and a lot even of, like, the precursors or the the bellwethers Mhmm.

它们要么错了，要么正在向另一个方向转变。

Are are wrong or shifting you another way.

就是这样。

That so That's it.

所以我不得不根据我完整的选票来独立整理出一份自己的分析。

So I had to make my own piece with what my ballot looks like as a whole.

因为昨晚九点四十五分，当我意识到我真的该开始放松了——也就是一小时不看任何东西的时候？

Because at ten at 09:45 last night when I was like, I really need to start my wind down, which is like an hour of no you know?

我不能对这件事这么焦虑。

I I can't be this anxious about it.

当我看着它时，我觉得这里没有内在逻辑，至少不符合我内心的逻辑。

When I was looking at it, was like, this doesn't There's not an internal logic here according to my internal logic

嗯。

Mhmm.

关于奥斯卡应该是什么样子、选票应该是什么样子，以及所谓的学院会怎么做。

Of what the Oscars should should be and what a ballot should be and what the quote unquote academy does.

我不得不放手。

And I I had to let it go.

你知道的。

You know?

我很钦佩这一点。

I admire that.

我当然觉得你和我在思维上都很有条理，但我觉得我生活的组织方式更加有条理。

I have a obviously, I think you and I are similarly organized in our mind, but I think the way that I live my life is even more organized.

我是个表格控。

And I'm a spreadsheet person.

我是个讲究秩序的人。

I'm a presidential person.

我对奥斯卡的历史非常熟悉，无论是近期的还是久远的。

I'm very rooted in the history of the Oscars, as much the recent history as the distant history.

今天我们来聊聊久远的历史，因为一些碰撞可能会引发相关话题。

And we're going to talk about the distant history today because of some of the things that could come up based on some of these collisions.

我娶了一位精算师。

And I'm married to an actuary.

你知道，她父亲是数学教授。

You know, her father is a math professor.

她姐姐也是数学教授。

Her sister is a math professor.

我对这种投票中的统计、数据和历史非常感兴趣，但同时也意识到其中蕴含着情感因素。

Like, I'm very interested in the sort of statistics and the data and the history of this, but also that there is feelings involved in this kind of voting.

而今年，这场所谓的战争，是在氛围与先例之间，是两列火车的碰撞。

And that the this year, the the the war, so to speak, is between vibes and precedent and what the the two trains colliding.

在某种程度上，它们体现在两部截然不同的电影中。

And they are represented in some ways in two distinct films.

我不会说一部电影是氛围片，另一部是数据片，但过去六个月发生的事情确实如此。

I wouldn't say one film is a vibes film and one film is a data film, but just what's gone on in the last six months.

我们已经讨论这个问题很久了，我觉得我们投入这么多时间是合理的，因为今年真的很有意思。

And we've been talking about this for a very long time, and I feel justified in how much time we've devoted to this stuff because it's been interesting this year.

时隔许久，今年再次变得非常、非常有趣。

For the first time in a while, it's been really, really interesting.

在做出预测之前，我发现自己并不怎么勇敢。

I find myself right before the predictions feeling not very brave.

我就说这些吧。

That's what I'll say.

好的。

Okay.

我是两个律师的孩子。

I am the child of two lawyers.

是的。

Mhmm.

所以对我来说，先例就是一种让你无法时时尽兴的东西。

So for me, precedent is just something that keeps you from having fun all of the time.

它是一种法律工具，用来限制生活的可能性。

It is a it that it is it is a legal tool to limit, the possibility of life.

是的。

Mhmm.

我也认为，我过去几年的思考受到这样的影响：随着经济变得更大、更国际化，以及人口数量的激增，社会不再像一个统一的整体。

And I do also think that some of what informed my thinking is that in the past few years as the economy has gotten bigger and more international and just just the sheer numbers and the number of people, it moves less like one solid group of people.

事实上，它变得更加混乱，选民、利益和偏好也变得越来越多样化。

And in fact, it just has become more chaotic, and it's more and more different types of voters and interests and preferences.

对。

Yes.

学术界的同质性已经消退了，至少相对于十五年前而言。

The homogeneity has been washed out of the academy, at least relative to what it was fifteen years ago.

是的。

Yes.

在种族、国籍、性别等方面确实如此，某种程度上是这样。

And and that's certainly true in terms of race, nationality, gender ish Ish.

年龄方面也是，你知道的，所有这些方面都差不多。

Age ish, you know, like they're all of them ish.

老实说，我认为现在仍然主要是年长的白人。

Honestly, I think there are still it's still predominantly, like, older white people.

那根本不是。

That's zero.

这个问题是我昨晚突然想到的。

What how many this is a random thing I was thinking about last night.

你觉得学术界有多少Z世代成员？

How many Gen Z members of the academy do you think there are?

零？

Zero?

一百？

A 100?

随便猜猜。

Just a guess.

詹妮弗·劳伦斯是Z世代吗？

Is Jennifer Lawrence Gen Z?

不是。

No.

不是。

No.

最年轻的人是谁？

Who are the youngest people?

艾玛·斯通不是Z世代。

Emma Stone is not Gen Z.

蕾切尔·齐格勒在学院里吗？

Is Rachel Zeigler in the academy?

她是在什么时候被加入的？

Did she get added when she

这是个非常好的问题。

That's a very good question.

你在学院里吗？

Are you in the academy?

学院成员。

Academy member.

我们马上去谷歌查一下。

Let's Google this right now.

我猜不到一百人。

Guess fewer than a 100.

我提起这个是有原因的。

And I bring this up for a reason.

她已经提交了作品，但我不确定是否

She's presented, but I don't know whether

我猜可能没有。

Probably not, I would guess.

你会惊讶于有多少人做了很多工作却不在学院里。

You'd be surprised the number of people who have done a lot of work who are not in the academy.

事实上，我认识一位提名者，他不在学院里，但他今年晚些时候会上节目。

In fact, I know a nominee who's not in the academy, and he's gonna be on the show later this year.

哦，真令人兴奋。

Oh, exciting.

有趣的事实。

Interesting fact.

我提起这个是因为奥斯卡披露史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格？

I bring this up because Oscar Disclosure Steven Spielberg?

不是史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格，我向你保证。

It's not Steven Spielberg, I assure you.

值得一提的是，史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格曾获得欧文·塔尔伯格奖，这是并非每年颁发的荣誉奖项。

Steven Spielberg, for the record, won the Irving Thalberg Award, the the the honorary award that is not given out every year.

当然。

Sure.

1987年，也就是三十九年前，他获得了这项荣誉奖。

In 1987, thirty nine years ago, he won the honorary

《辛德勒的名单》和《侏罗纪公园》。

Schindler's List and Jurassic Park.

是的。

Yes.

在他获得最佳导演奖之前。

Before he won best director.

这太疯狂了，托尼。

That's crazy, Tony.

他当时还没到四十岁。

He wasn't even 40.

总之，我问这个问题是因为今年的讨论非常嘈杂，关于实际情况的讨论很多。

Anyway, I ask this because the discourse is very noisy this year, and there's a lot of discussion about what's actually happening.

而且确实感觉有一大批人只关注奥斯卡大约二十五年或二十二年，而不是五十年。

And it does feel like there is a flood of people who have only been paying attention to the Oscars for, say, twenty five years or or twenty two years instead of fifty years.

好的。

Okay.

这在当前奖项竞争的实际情况中，可能是一种优势，也可能是一种劣势。

And that could be an advantage or it could be a disadvantage in terms of what's really happening with the race right now.

现在发生的事情有多少是真实的，又有多少是来自网络的？

How much of what's happening is real and or how much of it is online?

是的。

Yes.

我们不知道。

We don't know.

我们不知道。

We don't know.

我们站在历史的十字路口说：我不知道，但我还是要试着做个预测。

We stand athwart history saying, I don't know, but I'm gonna try to make a prediction.

好的。

Okay.

那我们开始吧。

So let's start.

好的。

Okay.

24个类别。

24 categories.

我们要逐一讨论每一个。

We're gonna go through every single one.

我想我们先从一些关于个人影片的类别开始。

I figured we'd start with some general individual film categories.

很有趣。

It's fun.

你掌控节奏得很好。

You've paced this well.

谢谢。

Thank you.

第一个类别是最佳动画长片。

The first category is animated feature film.

提名作品如下：《Arco》、《Elio》、《K Pop Demon Hunters》、《小阿梅莉或雨的特质》和《疯狂动物城2》。

The nominees are as follows: Arco, Elio, K Pop Demon Hunters, Little Amelie or The Character of Rain, and Zootopia two.

会赢，也该赢。

Will win and should win.

是的。

Yeah.

你可以先说，然后我们轮流交替。

You can go first, and maybe we'll alternate back and forth.

好的。

Okay.

太好了。

Great.

会赢的是《K Pop Demon Hunters》，也该赢。

Will win, k pop demon hunters, and should win.

我已经看完了全部五部，我想告诉你，我的地狱就是和一个四岁孩子一起看《小阿梅莉或雨之性格》，他一直问你：‘那个人是谁？’

And I have now seen all five, and I just want to let you know that my version of hell is watching little Amelie or the character of Rain with a four year old who just gives you, like, who is that?

什么

What's

我跟你说过这个故事了。

I told you my story about this.

爱丽丝一个问题都没问。

Alice didn't ask a single question.

所以现在当你租借时，《Arco》和《小阿梅莉》都可以租到，我们确实租了，但租的是配音版。

Well, so now when you rent them, they're both both Arco and Little Amelie are available to rent, which we did, but, we rented the dub versions.

我明白了。

I see.

威尔·法瑞尔出演了《Arco》的配音版。

Will Ferrell is in the Arco dub version.

我当时就想，嘿。

I was like, hey.

我的意思是，很多名人都是，但那确实是一个令人印象深刻的配音时刻。

I mean, many famous people are, but there was a that was a voice moment.

总之，没有。

Anyway, no.

我儿子，愿他安息，完全沉浸在《Hamnet》中杰西·巴克利的表演里，但最后他还是忍不住问：《Little Amelie》里到底发生了什么？

My son, bless him, fully became Jesse Buckley in Hamnet, at the end of the but, like, at the being like, what's going on for little Amelie?

这真是一个真实的……

And it was a true

这很有趣。

That's funny.

你看过《Arco》吗？

Did you watch Arco?

不。

No.

我他睡觉的时候我看了

I I he went to bed when I watched

它。

it.

去看。

To see.

我觉得他可能会喜欢。

I think he might have liked it.

我觉得它

I think it

我觉得它会受欢迎。

I think it would play.

爱丽丝也没看。

Alice didn't watch it either.

是的。

Yeah.

无论如何，应该赢的是K-pop恶魔猎手，那首歌太炸了。

Anyway, should win k pop demon hunters, which, is dynamite.

这歌太棒了。

It's a banger.

对。

Yeah.

我们在这一点上达成一致。

We match on that.

那些都是我的选择。

That's those those were both of my picks as well.

有点有意思的是，《疯狂动物城2》在这里并没有出现任何后期逆袭，因为

It is, I guess, kind of interesting that Zootopia two didn't make any kind of late breaking push here because

因为它太烂了。

Because it stinks.

不。

No.

我只是不同意。

I I just disagree.

而且它也非常受欢迎，是一部大热作品。

And it's also really it's really liked, and it's a huge hit.

那是真的。

That's true.

听我说，我儿子想买那个蛇形水桶。

Listen, my son wanted to buy the snake bucket.

那并不意味着它就不是艺术。

That doesn't mean that doesn't make it art.

我刚才说的是今年剩下的动画电影，今年秋天并没有《疯狂动物城2》上映。

I was talking about animated movies for the rest of the year, and there's not really a Zootopia two coming in the fall.

有一部迪士尼原创电影叫《Hexed》。

There is a Disney original movie called Hexed.

好吧。

Okay.

你了解这个吗？

You up on this?

不了解。

No.

是关于女巫的吗？

Is it about witches?

想必是吧。

One assumes.

但愿如此。

I hope so.

我不知道。

I don't know.

不过是一部在感恩节档期上映的迪士尼原创电影。

A Disney original in that Thanksgiving slot, though.

有意思。

Interesting.

好吧。

Okay.

我们来看最佳国际影片吧。

Let's go to international feature film.

提名作品如下。

The nominees are as follows.

来自巴西的《秘密特工》。

From Brazil, the secret agent.

来自法国，嗯。

From France Mhmm.

那只是个意外。

It was just accident.

来自挪威，情感价值。

Norway, sentimental value.

来自西班牙的《Surat》。

From Spain, Surat.

来自突尼斯的《Hind Rajab的声音》。

And from Tunisia, the voice of Hind Rajab.

你在选择这个时有遇到困难吗？

Did you struggle with this one at all?

这是我最看重的之一，我本来想最后一刻改掉，但我不会改。

This is one of my highlighted am I gonna change it last minute, but I'm not.

好的。

Okay.

我先来。

I'll go first.

是的。

Yes.

《情感价值》会获奖，是的。

Will win Sentimental Value Yes.

《秘密特工》应该获奖。

Should win The Secret Agent.

我们意见一致。

We match.

好的。

Okay.

那么是什么影响了你的这种想法？

So what what informed that thinking?

《情感价值》获得了最佳影片、最佳导演、最佳原创剧本提名，还有四项表演类提名。

Sentimental Value is nominated in best picture, best director, best original screenplay, and with four acting nominations.

人们真的很喜欢这部电影。

People really like that movie.

我们花了大量时间讨论《奥斯卡》和《早安》中的《情感价值》浪潮。

We spent a lot of time on Oscar and Oms Morning being like sentimental value wave.

你看，它真的来了。

Like, here it really comes.

我认为仅仅是数量上的优势

And I think that just the sheer numbers

是的

Mhmm.

推动了它的表现。

Of it propel it.

《秘密特工》获得了最佳影片提名，同时瓦格诺拉也获得了最佳男主角提名。

Secret agent is nominated in best picture and also, Vagnamora Vagnamora is nominated for best actor.

它还获得了最佳群戏提名。

And it's nominated for castings.

确实如此。

It is.

所以还是有人欣赏它的。

So there is, like, appreciation for it.

但我认为《情感价值》的提名更多。

But I think sentimental value I mean, it has more nominations.

而且如果你想象一下那个在提名前从未看过这两部电影的人，坐下来观看它们，我认为情感价值会更容易打动他。

And also if you're imagining the person who actually sits down, who hadn't seen these movies before nominations sits down and watches both of them, I think that sentimental value is gonna be an easier ask.

我也这么认为。

I think so too.

但我感觉我背叛了自己和《巴西》。

But I feel like I am betraying myself and Brazil.

我背叛了我自己和巴西这个国家。

I am betraying both myself and the nation of Brazil.

我觉得这就像抛硬币一样难分胜负。

I think this is a coin flip.

是的。

Yeah.

乔阿希姆·希罗，之前的提名者。

Joachim Shiro, previous nominee.

我觉得这对他有帮助。

I think that helps him.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我认为他的竞选非常有效。

I think he has campaigned very effectively.

这部电影非常受欢迎。

It's extremely well liked.

如果你查看提名者们今年最爱的电影列表，很多人的答案都是肯定的。

If you go through the list of nominees' favorite movies of the year, a lot of them Yes.

你会听到人们提到情感价值。

You'll hear say sentimental value.

这是一个有趣的指标。

That's an interesting indicator of something.

我认为你说得对，它获得的提名数量确实引人注目。

I think you're right that the raft of nominations that it has is notable.

但他们赢得的奖项并不多。

They don't have a lot of wins.

他们没有赢得很多前期奖项。

They have not won a lot of precursors.

你记得斯达斯加德赢得金球奖的那个时刻，非常令人难忘，但在这段时间里，这部电影并没有太多胜利。

You've got that Stalin Skarsgard Golden Globe win is very memorable, but there's not a lot of victories for this movie over that period of time.

所以它并没有像秘密特工那样拥有显著的优势。

So it's not as though it has like a dramatic advantage over the secret agent.

你有没有想过，Circa 可能会像一场意外，或者成为 Hinrajab 的高光时刻？

Is there any part of you that thinks Circa could be like a wild, it was just an accident or voice of Hinrajab moment here?

任何事情都可能发生。

Anything could happen.

但当其他一切都无法确定时，当你不知道该相信什么时，我和你一样，会回归数据来稳住自己。

But I you know, when all else fails, when you don't know, I, like you, do ground myself in the numbers.

是的。

Yeah.

我唯一想到的是，伊朗在过去六个星期经历了如此戏剧性且创伤性的事件。

The only thing that crossed my mind was just it's been such a dramatic and traumatic six weeks in Iran.

是的。

And Yeah.

你知道，先是抗议，然后是抗议者惨遭杀害，接着是以色列和美国的打击。

You know, first the protests and then the awful murder of protesters and then the strikes from Israel and The United States.

那个地区现在有如此多的动荡，有如此多的人对中东正在发生的事情感到愤怒，我不知道这是否会推动这样一部电影。

And there's just so much unrest in that space and so many people who are so angry about what's happening in that part of the world right now that I don't know if that could boost a movie like this.

我的意思是，把现实世界的后果混为一谈真是太奇怪了。

I mean, so strange to conflate real world consequences.

但听我说。

But listen.

没错，这六周确实一直在升级，但这一切都不是新鲜事。

It's it I mean, it has been an escalating six weeks for sure, but none of that is new.

而且这并非始于过去六个月，也肯定不是最近才发生的。

And it did not and certainly not in the last six months.

对。

Yep.

贾法尔·帕纳西赢得了金棕榈奖，那纯粹是个意外，但之后却几乎被完全忽视了。

And Jafar Panahi won the and it was just an accident, won the palm, and then has been pretty much blanked throughout.

是的。

Yeah.

他回国后曾被威胁要入狱，但这一切都没能阻止他。

Was threatened, you know, with imprisonment when he returns to Iran, and it still didn't get him.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我不确定。

So I I don't know.

我的意思是，美国确实以极其糟糕的方式升级了局势。

I mean, certainly, The US has escalated in absolutely terrible ways.

而且奥斯卡评委们确实喜欢通过投票表达他们的政治立场，但我不确定。

And and Oscar voters do like to vote for some of their vote their politics through that, but I don't know.

但似乎并没有引起共鸣。

It just doesn't seem to have caught on.

我觉得你说得对。

I think you're right.

一部惊人的电影。

Amazing movie.

如果它获奖了，我作为休斯顿人真的非常兴奋。

I'm a Houston really excited exciting if it won.

这是一组不错的提名影片。

This is a good collection of nominees.

这个类别有时有点奇怪，但今年我真的很喜欢。

This category is sometimes a bit wonky, and I really like it this year.

可能部分原因是Neon公司为五部最佳纪录长片提名了作品。

Probably in part because Neon just points for the five Documentary feature film.

提名作品包括《阿拉巴马解决方案》、《来见我，在美好的光中》、《劈开岩石》、《无名先生对普京》和《完美的邻居》。

The the nominees are the Alabama solution, come see me in the good light, cutting through rocks, mister nobody against Putin, and the perfect neighbor.

这不是我最喜欢的提名组合。

Not my favorite group of nominees.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

我们上周在节目中聊过这个。

We talked about it last week on the show.

《完美邻居》应该赢，《阿拉巴马解决方案》应该赢。

Will win the perfect neighbor should win the Alabama solution.

这正是我想说的。

That's exactly what I had.

是的。

Yeah.

我也觉得《阿拉巴马解决方案》只算得上是一种温和的赞赏。

I would say it's a kind of a mild enthusiasm for the Alabama solution too.

我认为《阿拉巴马解决方案》既称职又重要，我同意。

I think that the Alabama solution is competent and important and Agreed.

它以一种补充的方式，进一步推动了大量人已经在做的重要工作。

Furthers really important work that, you know, a lot of people are already doing in an additive way.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我们在纪录片那一集中讨论过《完美的邻居》，它无疑是最广为人知、最引发热议的。

The Perfect Neighbor we talked about on the documentary episode, it's certainly the most widely seen, the buzziest.

它，你知道的，是由Netflix发行的。

It, you know, it was distributed by Netflix.

我想说的是，这部作品引发的情感和讨论值得进一步探讨。

I guess I mean, it's interesting, and the emotions and conversations that it elicits are worth further discussion.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我们俩都觉得它有点怪异。

We both felt a little strange about it.

我不认为选民们会对它感到这么奇怪。

I don't think that the voters are gonna feel as strange about it.

我还没排除无名氏对抗普京的可能性。

I'm not ruling out mister Nobody against Putin.

与俄罗斯相关的影片有着悠久的获奖记录

There is a long track record of Russia related

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

在这一类别中获奖。

Films winning in this category.

你可以想想《伊卡洛斯》。

You can think about Icarus.

你可以想想，在2020年《安德烈夫卡两公里》之前，莫迪斯拉夫·切尔诺夫的上部电影是什么？

You can think about what is Modislav Chernoff's previous film before 2,020 meters to Andreivka?

距离《玛丽亚的玛丽亚的玛丽亚玛丽亚》还有二十天。是的。

Twenty days from Mary of Mary of Mary Mary Yeah.

我认为，世界上某些领域有时会关注这个类别，而且并非总是存在一致性。

There is I think there are certain sectors of the world that this category sometimes speaks to, and it's not always there's some consistency there.

而且我认为，《无名氏对决普京》的可看性因素可能略逊于《完美邻居》，但在这个类别中很可能位居第二。

And I think also mister nobody against Putin has a watchability factor that is maybe behind the perfect neighbor, but is probably in second place in this category.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我不感到惊讶。

And so I won't be shocked.

如果它获奖，我觉得我不会太兴奋，但我

I don't think I'll be thrilled if it wins, but I

也不感到惊讶。

won't be shocked.

站在奥斯卡的舞台上，而其他人都还在俄罗斯污染最严重的小镇里。

Standing on stage at the Oscars while everyone else is still in the most polluted town in Russia.

很棒。

Great.

不太理想。

Not ideal.

我没想到这部影片也是丹麦申报的国际影片，这挺有意思的，因为导演们的背景。

I didn't realize that that film was also the submission by Denmark for international feature film, which is kind of fascinating about you because of the origins of the filmmakers.

总之，我们看看这个结果会怎样。

Anyhow, we'll see how that one shakes out.

好的。

Okay.

原创配乐。

Original score.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

提名者包括：杰尔斯金·芬德里克斯为《秋海棠》创作的配乐，亚历山大·德普拉为《弗兰肯斯坦》创作的配乐，马克斯·里希特为《哈姆内特》创作的配乐，约翰尼·格林伍德为《一场接一场的战斗》创作的配乐，以及路德维希·戈兰松为《罪人》创作的配乐。

The nominees are Djerskin Fendrix for Begonia, Alexander Desplat for Frankenstein, Max Richter for Hamnet, Johnny Greenwood for one battle after another, and Ludwig Goransson for sinners.

等等。

Wait.

哦，是的。

Is it oh, yeah.

该你了。

It's your turn.

好的。

Okay.

轮到我了。

It's my turn.

会是路德维希·戈兰森凭借《罪人》获奖吗？

Will win Ludwig Goransson for sinners?

嗯。

Mhmm.

我押迪尔辛·芬德里克斯的《秋海棠》。

I'm zagging Djirskine Fendrix for Begonia.

到底谁该赢？

Just a Who should win?

只是我喜欢的一个配乐。

Just a score I like.

我们同意路德维希·戈兰森凭借《罪人》会获奖，而该获奖的是丹尼尔·拉帕滕的《马蒂·苏普里兹》。

I we agree on Will win Ludwig Goransson for sinners, and should win is Daniel LaPatten for Marty Supriz.

好的。

Okay.

嗯，事情并不是这样运作的。

Well, that's not really how this works.

这是我们的节目。

This is our show.

我们可以做我们想做的事。

We can do what we want.

好的。

Okay.

如果你只想这样，我的意思是，你可以在每个类别都这么做。

If that's where you wanna be, under I mean, you can do that for every category.

我就只在这个奖项上这么做。

I'm doing it for this one.

好的。

Okay.

得分分支

The score branch

嗯。

Mhmm.

已被警告。

Is on notice.

那是什么意思？

What does that mean?

比如，这会有什么后果？

Like, what are the consequences of that?

你打算怎么对待他们？

What are you gonna do to them?

你会伤害他们吗？

You're hurt them?

不会。

No.