302. 菲亚特标准第18章：比特币能解决这个问题吗？

但如果我们假设增长率为2%，那么黄金供应量每35年就会翻一番。

But if we assume that the growth rate is 2%, then gold supply doubles every thirty five years.

所以35年后，我们将拥有比现在多一倍的黄金。

So in thirty five years, we're gonna have twice as much gold as we have today.

而我们只会比现在多拥有约10%的比特币。

We're only gonna have about 10% more Bitcoin than we have today.

差距巨大。

A huge difference.

从35年增长100%到35年仅增长10%。

From 100% growth in thirty five years to 10% growth in thirty five years.

这意味着现在持有比特币仍然是明智之举。

That means holding on to Bitcoin today still is something that makes sense.

如果实施类似金本位制的政策，比特币价格可能会暴跌。

Maybe the price crashes if something like a gold standard is implemented.

但即使价格暴跌，未来仍有可能复苏并上涨，因为随着时间的推移，其供应增长速度将远低于黄金。

But even if the price crashes, it's likely to still recover and rise in the future because the supply continues to increase at a much lower rate than gold over time.

所以，当然，要知道，这只是稀缺性论点。

So, and of course, know, that's just the scarcity argument.

当然还有政治论点——如果他们能实行金本位制，同样也能废除金本位制。

There's also of course the political argument if they can go on a gold standard, can also go off a gold standard.

而比特币是唯一能真正由你自主掌控的东西。

And Bitcoin is the only thing that you can own yourself.

他们仍可能在某个时候没收你的黄金，想想看，如果他们用金本位制来扼杀比特币，又有什么能阻止他们再次没收你的黄金，让二十世纪的历史重演呢？

They can still confiscate your gold at some point, know, if they use the gold standard to kill Bitcoin, what's to stop them from then going and re confiscating your gold and doing the twentieth century all over again.

因此在我看来，即便转向金本位制也不足以彻底消灭对比特币的需求。

So it doesn't seem to me like even a move to the gold standard would be enough to kill demand for Bitcoin completely.

上述分析并不能构成比特币必然成功的铁证，但至少表明其长期持续存活是一个明确且现实的可能性。

So the above analysis does not constitute an ironclad prediction of Bitcoin's inevitable success, but it should at least suggest that its continued long term survivor is a distinct and realistic possibility.

那么比特币在法币世界中会如何发展？

So how would Bitcoin grow in a fiat world?

关于比特币在法币世界中的发展，有几个需要牢记的情景。

There are several scenarios to keep in mind for how Bitcoin could grow in a fiat world.

第一种情况是央行采用比特币的设想。

The first one is the idea of central bank adoption.

你想，如果央行意识到这是更好的货币，决定采用并开始将其作为官方货币使用呢？

You know, what if central banks just realize that this is better money and adopt it and start using it as their money.

确实存在强有力的论据支持央行采用比特币。

And there is a strong case to be made for Central Bank adoption of Bitcoin.

比特币是中立货币，是无人控制的国际结算工具。

Bitcoin is neutral money, and it's international settlement that nobody controls.

作为央行，你会看到这种价值：无需通过美联储或欧洲央行等特定央行，也无需持有其他央行的货币，就能与其他央行、其他国家进行支付。

If you're a Central Bank, you can see the value of being able to make payments with other Central Banks, with other countries, without having to go through any one particular Central Bank like the Fed or the European Central Bank, and without having to hold the currency of another Central Bank.

你不必受制于其他央行的货币政策和政治立场。

You are not tied at the hip with the monetary policy and the politics of another Central Bank.

实际上你获得了主权，因为你也拥有了自己的货币。

You become sovereign effectively because you have your own money too.

而且你拥有了可以自主使用的中立货币。

And you have your own neutral money that you can use.

所以我认为这就是采用它的理由。

So that's I think the case for it.

当然还有一点是它会升值，从而改善你的国际收支状况。

And then of course, have the idea that it appreciates and that will therefore improve your balance of payments.

如果你的国际现金储备升值，就能在不引发经济问题的情况下从国外购买更多商品。

If your international cash balance appreciates in value that allows you to buy more things from foreigners without suffering economic problems.

比特币的另一个好处是它能让国民无需通过创造债务就能储蓄。

And Bitcoin another benefit of it is that it allows your citizens to save without debt having to be created.

你完全可以创造更多债务。

You can just make more debt.

你可以在不制造债务的情况下为国民创造更多储蓄——这正是法定货币体系当前面临的问题，现在每个人都债台高筑。

You can make more savings for your citizens without having to create debt, which is the problem that the fiat system is running into right now, where everybody is indebted up to their eyeballs.

但人们需要持续购买债务，因为购买债务是他们储蓄的方式——债券是持有现金之外的替代选择。

But people need to keep buying debt because buying debt is the way in which they save because bonds are the alternative to holding cash.

因此央行有充分的理由想要采用它。

So there is a case for why central banks would want to adopt it.

但在我看来，他们不采纳的理由更为充分。

But in my mind, there's a stronger case for why they will not adopt it.

基本观点是，我认为比特币是中央银行的替代品。

And the basic idea is, as I think of it, Bitcoin is an alternative to central banks.

所以中央银行对它没什么用处。

So central banks don't have much use for it.

作为中央银行，你已经掌控了支付系统。

If you're a central bank, you already control payment rails.

你本就具备国际支付能力。

You are already able to spend money internationally.

你看不到替代方案对你的价值。

You don't see the value in an alternative for you.

要知道，当你掌控货币时，使用另一种货币的动机并不明显。

Know, The use case for wanting to use a money when you control the money is not very obvious.

你可能会听说，与美国敌对的央行热爱法币，不愿使用美元和美国清算机制。

And you might hear say, well, central banks that are enemies of The US love fiat, don't like to be using the United States dollar and The United States clearance mechanisms.

不过我认为，比起厌恶美元，他们更倾向于拥有自己的法定货币。

Maybe, however, I think they like having their own Fiat currencies more than they hate the US dollars.

我们看到，那些抱怨美国货币政策与通胀的政府，自身在财政上也并非特别负责。

And we see this, know, it isn't as if these governments that complain about The United States monetary policy and inflation, it isn't as if they are extremely financially responsible.

他们同样实施通胀政策，其货币价值也在不断贬值。

They also engage in inflation, their currencies also decline in value.

在我看来，他们似乎对迈向财政与货币责任的世界并不特别热衷。

And they don't seem to me as if they're extremely keen on moving to a world of fiscal and monetary responsibility.

对于与美国结盟或友好的国家及国际货币基金组织成员，IMF禁止其成员国使用黄金作为货币支持。

For governments that are allied with The US or friendly with The US and members of the IMF, the IMF bans their members from backing their currencies with gold.

你无法在采用金本位的同时保持IMF成员资格。

You cannot go on a gold standard and be an IMF member.

因此别指望这些政府会热衷于用比特币支持本国货币，或将比特币作为国家货币。

And so don't expect them to be very keen to get the governments to back their currencies with Bitcoin or to use Bitcoin as their national currency.

但我认为，央行不会采纳比特币更深层、更根本的原因在于：央行完全由信奉政府货币管控的人士组成。

But I think the deeper and more serious objection to why central banks won't to why central banks could adopt Bitcoin is the fact that central banks are staffed entirely by believers in government control over money.

比特币简直是不可想象的。

Bitcoin is just simply unthinkable.

对于在中央银行工作的人来说，比特币是永远无法理解的事物。

Bitcoin is something that is never going to make sense to somebody who works in a central bank.

好吧，或许不是永远。

Well, maybe not never.

但中央银行的工作人员将是最晚理解比特币、最晚领悟其价值主张的人，因为在他们的观念中，比特币根本说不通。

But people who work in central banks are going to be the last that understand Bitcoin and the last that get the value proposition because in their mind, Bitcoin just doesn't make sense.

货币是政府创造的产物。

Money is something that the government creates.

货币是政府能够生产的东西。

Money is something that the government is able to produce.

因此在他们看来，货币存在于政府控制之外的想法是不可想象的。

And therefore, in their mind, the idea of government of money existing outside of the control of government is unthinkable.

这就是为什么我认为中央银行会是最晚认真对待比特币的群体。

So this is why I think central banks will be the last people to take Bitcoin seriously.

此外，比特币需要低时间偏好。

And further, Bitcoin requires low time preference.

比特币要求你着眼长远，考虑一种因其供应量而非短期中央规划者干预而保持价值的货币。

Bitcoin requires you to think of the long term, to think of a money that holds on to its value because of its supply, not because of a short term intervention by a central planner.

在大多数政府中，你很难大量发现这种思维方式。

You don't find that kind of mentality in abundance in most governments.

我不认为政府会急于采用比特币。

I don't see governments rushing to adopt Bitcoin.

从我开始写这本书时起，情况就是如此。

Now since when I started writing this book, was there.

而就在我即将完成这本书时，萨尔瓦多宣布他们希望开始将比特币作为法定货币。

And then as I was finishing up the book, El Salvador announced that they want to start adopting Bitcoin as legal tender.

所以我认为这某种程度上反驳了这一点。

And so I think that's kind of a counter to this point.

不过，值得记住的是萨尔瓦多是一个没有本国货币的国家。

However, it's worth remembering El Salvador is a country without a currency.

他们没有自己的货币，所以也没有中央银行。

They don't have their own currency, so they don't have a central bank.

因此这对他们可能有意义，但我认为这对世界主要中央银行来说没有意义，因为这些主要央行拥有自己的货币，并从中获得巨大利益。

And so it might make sense for them, but it's still, I don't think it makes sense for the major central banks of the world, because the major central banks of the world have their own currencies and they benefit enormously from having that privilege.

我不认为他们会持开放态度接受转向硬通货的想法。

I don't see them as being open minded to the idea of moving to a hard money.

这就是为什么我始终认为比特币将继续作为中央银行的替代品而非其资产而发展壮大。

And that's why I continue to think that Bitcoin will continue to grow as an alternative to Central Banks and not an asset for them.

那么如果它继续

So then if it continues to

作为中央银行的替代品发展壮大，这意味着什么？

grow as an alternative Central Bank, what does that mean?

我们将会看到什么？

What are we going to see?

我认为在支持比特币、喜爱比特币或理解比特币的人群中最常见的预测场景就是恶性通货膨胀。

Well, the most common scenario that I would think you would find among people who are pro Bitcoin or who like Bitcoin or understand Bitcoin is hyperinflation.

我们将遭遇恶性通货膨胀，比特币将摧毁国家货币，因为人们会抛售美元来购买比特币。

We're going to get hyperinflation and Bitcoin is going to destroy national currencies because people will dump their dollars in order to buy Bitcoin.

而撰写《法定货币标准》让我思考了一些强有力的理由，说明情况可能并非如此。

And writing the fiat standard has made me think of strong reasons why that might not be the case.

在此，我想阐述为什么比特币不会导致恶性通货膨胀。

And here I'd like to make the case for why Bitcoin doesn't cause hyperinflation.

我认为这是一个非常重要的观点，我相信还没有人提到过。

And I think it's a very important point that I don't believe anybody has mentioned.

我认为这是通过对法定货币标准的分析得出的结论，这与法定货币的创造方式以及比特币对货币需求的影响有关。

And I think it's something that comes through from the analysis of the fiat standard, which has to do with the way in which fiat money is created and the way in which demand for money is changed because of Bitcoin.

需要牢记的非常重要的一点是，国家货币崩溃不是因为对它们的需求崩溃。

The very important point to keep in mind is that national currencies collapse not because demand for them collapses.

它们崩溃是因为供应量大幅增加。

They collapse because supply increases massively.

因此，如果你观察所有恶性通货膨胀的案例并查看货币供应量，你会发现只有当货币供应量快速且大幅增加时，才会发生恶性通货膨胀。

So if you look at all the instances of hyperinflation and you look at the money supply, you see hyperinflation only happens when there's a very quick and large increase in the money supply.

货币贬值并非由于对其需求的突然崩溃而发生。

It doesn't happen because of a sudden collapse in demand for the money.

需求会减少，但这种减少是渐进的，比如一年内需求可能减少10%、20%或30%。

The demand is going to be reduced, but the reduction in demand is gradual, know, there's a 10% reduction in demand maybe in a year or 20 or 30%.

但货币价值的下跌速度要快得多，更准确地对应着货币供应量的增长。

But the reduction in the value of the currency is much faster, much quicker, and it corresponds more accurately to the increase in the supply of money.

因此观察近期或历史上的恶性通胀案例，比如黎巴嫩、津巴布韦、委内瑞拉，你会发现恶性通胀前都伴随着货币供应的激增——尤其在黎巴嫩案例中，货币供应增长并非来自银行体系的信贷创造。

So if you look at the examples of recent hyperinflations or old hyperinflations, look at Lebanon recently, Zimbabwe, Venezuela, you see the hyperinflation was preceded by a very fast increase in the money supply and in particular in the case of Lebanon, know the money supply increase was not the credit creation of the banking system.

而是实体纸币的印刷，他们印制大量纸币用于支付政府工资，这些纸币供应量暴增，导致货币价值急速崩溃。

It was the printing of physical notes, they printed a large amount of physical notes, in order to pay off government salaries and these notes increased in supply enormously, and the value of the currency crashed very quickly.

所以货币崩溃源于供应激增，而非需求减少。

So currencies collapse because the supply rises not because demand is reduced.

需求下降的幅度远不及货币价值贬值的剧烈程度。

The reduction in demand is nowhere near as drastic as the reduction in the value.

这无法解释现实情况，因为人们仍需用本币缴税，即便他们会将部分需求转向持有其他货币，但仍需持有本国法定货币。

It cannot explain it because people, you know, they still need to pay their taxes in their local currency, whereas they don't whereas, you know, even if they will shift some of their demand to holding other currencies, they still need to hold the national currency.

因此，货币需求的减少并不对应货币价值的下降。

And so the reduction in the demand does not correspond to the reduction in the value of the currency.

真正与之对应的是货币供应的增加。

The thing that does correspond is the increase in the supply.

所以比特币无法增加法定货币的供应量。

So Bitcoin can't increase the supply of fiat currency.

但对我来说，关键是要试图理解比特币对法定货币供应量的影响。

But this is really the key point for me is to try and understand the impact of Bitcoin on the supply of fiat currency.

而且我认为反直觉的是，比特币实际上具有通缩效应，因为它会导致美元和其他法定货币的创造减少。

And I think counter intuitively Bitcoin actually has a deflationary impact in that it leads to the reduction of the creation of Dollars and Fiat currencies.

因为是的，人们通常的思考方式是：比特币会减少对持有法定货币的需求，由于人们将减少持有本国货币，法定货币的价值会崩溃，我们将迎来恶性通货膨胀。

Because yes, the common way in which people think about it is okay, Bitcoin is gonna reduce supply of the demand for holding fiat money and because people are going to hold less fiat money, the value of fiat is going to collapse and we're going to have hyperinflation.

我不认为情况是这样的。

I don't think that's the case.

需求的减少不会转化为恶性通货膨胀。

The reduction in demand is not going to translate into hyperinflation.

关键在于，恶性通货膨胀的发生需要货币创造量的增加。

The important thing is for hyperinflation to happen, need to have an increase in the creation of money.

但比特币实际上降低了创造法币的动机。

But Bitcoin actually reduces the incentive for the creation of fiat.

这确实是一个非常非常重要的观点。

This is really a very, very important point.

它实际上是本书的核心论点。

It's effectively the punchline of this book.

要知道，我们研究的所有关于法币运作原理的内容——第三章的法币'开采'，第四章的现实情况，以及法币货币体系的运作方式——所有这些都导向这个核心论点。

Know, the reason everything that we studied about how Fiat works, Fiat mining in chapter three, the reality or chapter four, I think, and the realities of how the Fiat monetary system functions, All of that stuff leads us to this punchline.

我认为这是本书最重要的结论。

This is, I think, the most important conclusion from this book.

那就是比特币可以作为一种货币升级而发展，它能引发债务豁免而非恶性通货膨胀。

And that is the idea that Bitcoin can grow as a monetary upgrade and it can cause a debt jubilee rather than hyperinflation.

比特币可能不会导致恶性通胀的原因在于，恶性通胀历来都是货币供应量大幅增加的结果，而非货币需求突然下降所致。

So the case for why Bitcoin might not cause hyperinflation is that hyperinflation has always been the result of large increases in the money supply and not a sudden decline in money demand.

所以委内瑞拉人仍需要玻利瓦尔来缴税，因此需求并未下降百万倍。

So Venezuelans still need Bolivars to pay taxes, so demand has not dropped by a factor of a million.

货币供应量却增加了百万倍。

Supply of money has increased by a factor of a million.

当你看到货币价值彻底崩溃时，这与供应量的增加相对应，而非需求的减少。

When you see the complete collapse in the value of the currency, it corresponds to the increase in the supply, not in the reduction of the demand.

那么为什么比特币不会导致恶性通胀呢？

So why would Bitcoin not cause hyperinflation?

嗯，也许比特币会降低持有美元的需求，但它同时也减少了持有债务工具的需求，从而减少货币创造。

Well, maybe Bitcoin will reduce the demand for holding US dollars, but it also reduces the demand for holding debt instruments, which reduces money creation.

记住，法币是通过创造债务来开采的。

Remember, fiat is mined through creation of debt.

所以如果人们不想持有法币债务，因为他们不想持有现金余额和债券，而是想持有比特币，这意味着对法币创造的需求减少。

So if people don't want to hold fiat debt, because they don't wanna hold cash balances and bonds instead they wanna hold Bitcoin, That means less demand for Fiat creation.

这意味着创造的法币数量会减少。

That means less Fiat money is created.

因此，比特币确实让我们想持有更少的美元，但他们也会想持有更少的债务工具，而债务工具正是创造美元的来源。

So it's true that Bitcoin is we want to hold fewer dollars, but they would also want to hold fewer debt instruments and debt instruments are what creates the dollars.

在这方面，回想一下前面章节讨论的例子，当时我们谈到债券本质上已成为现金的新替代品。

And so in this regard, think about the example of, from the earlier chapters when we were discussing how bonds are essentially the new substitute for cash.

持有现金的新替代方式是持有政府债券，因为它们没有股权风险且违约风险最低。

The new alternative to holding cash is that you hold government bonds because they don't have equity risk and they have the lowest default risk.

因此，它们确实是持有现金的最佳替代选择。

And so therefore they are the best alternative to holding on to cash.

所以人们持有的债券远多于现金。

And so people hold a lot more bonds than they hold cash.

更准确地说，持有现金的是许多人以小额余额形式持有的现金，但真正的财富是以债券形式持有的。

That is particularly or more accurately, the people who hold cash is cash is held in small balances by many people, but real wealth is held in bonds.

要知道，富人和富裕金融机构不会在保险柜里存放数十亿美元现金，也不会在银行支票账户里存有数十亿美元。

Know, rich people and rich financial institutions, they don't have billions of dollars of cash sitting around in a safe, and they don't have billions of dollars of money sitting in a bank account and a checking account.

他们持有的政府债券数量远超过现金。

They hold a lot more government bonds than they hold cash.

因此，如果比特币要取代现金，它不仅会取代对纸币美元的需求（这部分需求并不显著），还将取代对持有债务工具的需求。

And so if Bitcoin is to replace cash, it's not just going to replace the demand for dollars as bills, which is not that significant, it's also going to replace demand for holding debt instruments.

因此，它将削弱创造债务的动机。

And so it's going to reduce the incentive for the creation of debt.

所以比特币不仅与法定货币在现金资产需求上竞争，还与法定债务竞争。

So Bitcoin does not just compete with fiat currency for cash asset demand, it also competes with fiat debt.

法定货币的贬值推动了对不受股权风险影响且回报能抵消通胀的债务工具的需求。

And so the devaluation of fiat money drives demand for debt instruments that are not exposed to equity risk and which offer returns that compensate for inflation.

对价值储存的需求正是导致债务大规模发行的原因。

So the demand for a store of value is what leads to this enormous issuance of debt.

如果更多个人和企业开始在资产负债表中持有比特币而非债务工具，这将降低信贷创造需求，减少法定货币的创造，从而降低恶性通胀的可能性。

If more individuals and companies start to hold Bitcoin instead of debt instruments on their balance sheets, that would reduce the demand for credit creation, reducing fiat money creation, making hyperinflation less likely.

在人为低利率和预期持续贬值的宽松法定货币环境下，个人更倾向于借贷而非储蓄。

In a world of artificially low interest rates and easy fiat money that is expected to constantly devalue, individuals are likely to borrow rather than save.

比特币的发现为个人和企业提供了储蓄硬资产的机会，这种资产会随时间增值，使他们为满足大额支出而借贷的需求降低。

The discovery of Bitcoin gives individuals and corporations the chance to save in a hard asset appreciates over time, making them less likely to need to borrow to meet their major expenses.

因此，我认为这是比特币运作方式中一个极其重要的发展，也是为什么我认为比特币的增长可能不会那么糟糕。

So this I think is an enormously significant development of how Bitcoin operates and it's why I think things might not be so nasty in the growth of Bitcoin.

第二点是比特币降低了借贷动机，从而也减少了货币创造。

The second point is that Bitcoin reduces the incentive to borrow, which also reduces money creation.

一方面，它降低了你在储蓄时想要持有债务资产的动机，就像你的活期账户一样。

So on the one hand, it reduces your incentive to want to hold on to debt asset as you're saving as your checking account.

另一方面，它也降低了你想通过借贷来支付开支的动机。

On the second hand, it also reduces your incentive to want to borrow in order to finance your expenditures.

如果你能储蓄会升值的硬通货，你就不太可能通过借贷来支付大额开支。

If you can save in hard money that appreciates, you are less likely to borrow to finance large expenditures.

随着借贷需求和贷款需求的减少，比特币减少了货币的创造，可以说比它减少对法币的需求还要多。

With a reduction in the demand for borrowing and a reduction in the demand for lending Bitcoin reduces the creation of money, arguably more than it reduces the demand for fiat money.

我认为这才是关键点：比特币取代了现金余额，因此也取代了货币创造的机制，并激励越来越少地创造法币。

That's I think really the key point to understand that Bitcoin replaces cash balances and therefore so it replaces the mechanism for the creation of money and incentivizes less and less creation of fiat money.

第三点，请记住我们说过法币挖矿就是借贷。

And the third point, remember we said in fiat mining is lending.

这使得法币比比特币更易用，但也限制了法币以恶性通胀速度扩张的能力。

This makes fiat easier than Bitcoin, but also makes it hard for fiat to expand at hyperinflationary speeds.

是的，目前法币的'挖矿'（增发）比比特币更具通胀性。

Yes, fiat mining is much more inflationary than Bitcoin currently.

目前比特币的年供应增长率约为1.5%至2%。

Bitcoin currently increases at around 1.5% to 2% per year in terms of its supply.

而法币的年增长率却达到6%、7%、8%、10%、20%甚至15%。

But fiat money increases at 6%, 7%, 8%, 10%, 20%, 15% per year.

但一般来说，只要法币作为信用货币体系运行，货币通过信贷发行创造，并通过法币信贷贷款进行'挖矿'，那么法币就不会以恶性通货膨胀的速度扩张。

But generally, as long as fiat is run as a credit monetary system, and money is created through credit issuance and mining is done through fiat credit loans, then fiat money does not expand at hyperinflationary speeds.

要引发恶性通货膨胀，必须进行实际的物理印钞。

In order to get hyperinflation, you need to have actual physical printing.

这就是为什么在法币世纪里我们只经历了大约60次恶性通货膨胀。

That's why we've only had 60 hyperinflations in the fiat century, approximately 60.

这些恶性通货膨胀只有在货币创造与信贷创造分离时才会发生，即通过物理印刷实体美元钞票和法币钞票，如津巴布韦、黎巴嫩和委内瑞拉的例子。

And these hyperinflations only happen after money creation is separated from credit creation through the physical printing of physical dollar bills and physical fiat money bills, like the example of Zimbabwe and Lebanon and Venezuela.

因为信贷创造本身就很难发放大量贷款。

Because credit creation, it's just difficult to issue a lot of loans.

银行不可能无限量地发放贷款。

Banks can't just issue infinitely large numbers of loans.

即使他们尝试这样做，信贷创造也具有自我修正机制。

And even if they tried, credit creation is self correcting.

这实际上等同于法币的难度调整机制，就像我在法币挖矿章节提到的，大量信贷创造会催生许多拥有大量资金并持续消费的企业。

It's effectively the equivalent of Fiat's difficulty adjustment, As I mentioned in the chapter on fiat mining, in that credit creation, if you create a lot of credits, you've created a lot of businesses that are out there that have a lot of money and that are out there and spending that money.

这不会直接导致恶性通胀，而是会先形成商业周期。

It doesn't just translate to very high inflation, it is going to translate into a business cycle first.

价格会上涨，但最终那些依靠虚假信贷融资的企业将会违约、倒闭或破产。

There's going to be a rise in prices, but then there's going to be a point at which a lot of these businesses that were financed with the fake credit are gonna default, are gonna go out of business, are gonna go bankrupt.

这将摧毁大量货币供应。

And then that's going to destroy a lot of the money supply.

这种货币创造与毁灭的过程，某种程度上确保了货币创造不会完全失控。

So this process of money creation and destruction is kind of ensuring that the money creation doesn't get way too out of hand.

这就是为什么法定信贷创造不会迅速导致恶性通货膨胀。

That's why fiat credit creation doesn't get hyperinflationary very quickly.

当法定信贷创造扩张时，会引发不可持续的投机泡沫，这些泡沫破裂后会减少货币供应量。

When fiat credit creation expands, it causes unsustainable speculative bubbles, which collapse and bring money supply down.

因此，这就是法定货币体系能存续如此之久的原因——其增长率，尤其是在那些货币创造不完全由政府掌控用于支付账单的较负责任的经济体中。

So this is why fiat monetary system survives so long because the growth rate, particularly in the more responsible economies where the money creation isn't completely in the hand of governments to just pay their own bills.

银行体系在创造货币。

The banking system is out there creating money.

是的，它比黄金更具通胀性。

Yes, it's more inflationary than gold.

它比比特币更具通胀性，但通胀程度并没有高出太多。

It's more inflationary than Bitcoin, but it's not that much more inflationary.

每年大约只有6%、7%或10%左右。

It's only six, seven, 10% or so per year.

而不是每年50%。

It's not 50% per year.

因为无法创造如此巨额的信贷，年增长率不可能达到500%。

It's not 500% per year because you just can't make that much credit.

若强行尝试，只会引发大量通缩性崩盘和破产，从而缩减货币供应量。

And if you tried, all that you're gonna do is that you're gonna bring about a lot of deflationary crashes and bankruptcies that bring down the money supply.

商业周期是法币体系下残酷且低效的比特币难度调整等效机制。

The business cycle is the brutal and highly inefficient fiat equivalent of Bitcoin's difficulty adjustment.

若信贷扩张过快，会引发股市、房地产或高科技等经济领域的投机泡沫。

If credit expands too quickly, it causes speculative bubbles in particular sectors of the economy like the stock market, housing or high-tech sector.

随着这些领域投资增加，资产价格会超出资产负债表基本面所反映的价值。

As investments in these sectors increase, assets become overpriced beyond what the fundamentals of their balance sheets imply.

这会刺激更多金融资产的产生，最终导致资产价格下跌，大量贷款被清算，货币供应收缩。

This incentivizes the production of more financial assets, causing the price of the assets to eventually fall, liquidating a lot of loans and contracting the money supply.

因此在某种程度上，这是一种自我修正机制。

So it's a self correcting mechanism in a way.

这就是为什么我认为法币信贷体系不太可能出现恶性通货膨胀。

And that's why I think it's not extremely likely to see the hyperinflation in the fiat credit system.

这里需要记住的另一个方面是，恶性通货膨胀的问题不仅在于货币价值的毁灭——尽管这对持有货币的人来说是灾难性的——更严重的是，没有货币会导致社会分工体系的崩溃。

Another aspect here to keep in mind is that the problem of hyperinflation is not so much just the destruction of the value of money, even though that is catastrophic for the people who hold the money, but it is a bigger problem because the division of labor in society is destroyed without money.

但比特币为我们提供了一种可供任何需要者使用的替代货币体系。

But Bitcoin offers us an alternative monetary system available to anyone who needs it.

因此，它就像是针对恶性通货膨胀的安全网。

Therefore, making it like a safety net for hyperinflation.

如果真的发生某种恶性通货膨胀，能够使用比特币的人将能够规避通胀带来的可怕损害，因为他们可以用比特币支付账单。

If we do get a kind of hyperinflation, people who are able to use Bitcoin are going to be able to get around the horrible damages from hyperinflation because they can use that money to pay their bills.

因此，当法币贬值时，比特币这个安全网能让用户继续保持交易和参与社会分工。

So as national currencies fall in value, Bitcoin is the safety net that allows users to continue to trade and engage in the division of labor.

所以与其说比特币是摧毁法币的威胁，不如说它可能成为让法币平稳退出的巧妙技术解决方案。

So rather than a threat that can destroy fiat money, Bitcoin may turn out to be the neat technological solution that allows fiat to unwind peacefully.

比特币同时减少了法币需求和增发法币的动机。

Bitcoin simultaneously reduces fiat demand and the incentive to create more fiat supply.

这就像有人巧妙地同时抽走相互支撑的两张牌——法币需求牌与法币供给牌，从而将法币的纸牌屋有序拆解成一副散牌。

It is like someone skillfully and neatly dismantling the Fiat House of Cards into a deck of cards by removing each set of two cards leaning on each other at the same time, the card of Fiat demand and the card of Fiat supply.

这就是如何拆解纸牌屋的方法。

That's how you take apart the house of cards.

这就是防止它轰然倒塌的方式。

That's how you prevent it from crashing down.

纸牌屋的每一层都是两张相互倚靠的纸牌。

Each layer of the house of cards is two cards leaning against each other.

要知道，它们非常脆弱，但你可以将这两张牌视为法币的供应与需求。

You know, they're very flimsy, but it's the two cards you can think of them as the supply for Fiat and the demand for Fiat.

如果其中一方剧烈波动，纸牌屋就会倒塌。

If one of these goes up or down too drastically, the card, the house of cards falls down.

但比特币不仅削弱了持有法币的需求，还削弱了创造法币的需求。

But Bitcoin is not just taking away the demand for holding Fiat, it's taking away the demand for the creation of fiat.

因此我认为它极有可能在不引发大崩盘的情况下缩小法币经济规模。

So I think it's highly likely to reduce the size of the fiat economy without causing a big crash.

好吧，说'极有可能'有些夸张，但我认为确实存在一种显著可能性——它能在不导致大规模崩溃的前提下降低法币经济的重要性和规模。

Well, highly likely is an over exaggeration, but I think there is a distinct possibility that it could reduce the importance and the size of the fiat economy without resulting in a massive crash.

因此，如果发达经济体的政府在过去的几十年里在管理本国货币方面做得还算不错，明智地管理这一过程，他们将允许信贷和货币创造自然发生。

So if the governments of advanced economies, have done a semi respectable job in managing their currencies over the past few decades, manage this process wisely, they would allow the credit and money creation to happen naturally.

随着更多人升级到更优越、更硬、更快的货币资产——比特币，以法币计价的经济相对于比特币经济的规模将持续缩小。

The fiat denominated economy would continue to shrink in relation to the Bitcoin economy, as more people upgrade to the superior, harder and faster monetary asset.

法币货币体系在未来五十年里可以像过去五十年那样继续运作。

The fiat monetary system could operate for the next fifty years in the same way it has operated for the last fifty.

但到了下一个五十年结束时，它很可能只是比特币货币体系规模的一小部分。

But by the end of the next fifty years, it may well be a tiny fraction of the size of the Bitcoin monetary system.

这是我们可以想象的比特币发展的一种方式。

This is one way we can imagine the growth of Bitcoin.

因此，当前的全球货币体系不会突然崩溃，而是随着其货币价值被比特币取代、市场份额被比特币蚕食，逐渐自然萎缩至无足轻重的地位。

So rather than going out with a bank, the current global monetary system would just slowly and naturally get downsized into irrelevance as its currencies lose their value and market share to Bitcoin.

所以与其说是对比特币对法币体系的攻击，不如说比特币可能为法币经济提供一条出路，使其摆脱日益严重的债务奴役螺旋——因为比特币会贬值法币体系下人人背负的法币债务。

So rather than an attack on the fiat system, Bitcoin might allow the fiat economy and exit from its spiral into ever more debt slavery, as devalues the fiat debt that saddles everyone in the fiat system.

如果更多人转向比特币，而法币计价的债务实际贬值，那么世界经济中的绝大多数人将从其债务义务的贬值中极大受益。

If more people move to Bitcoin and fiat denominated debt devalues in real terms, the vast majority of the world's economy benefits enormously from the devaluation of its obligations.

一个人越早升级到比特币经济，他们的法币债务就会越快变得无足轻重。

The sooner one upgrades to the Bitcoin economy, the sooner their fiat debts become insignificant.

我认为这是一个极其令人信服的观点。

I believe this is an extremely compelling case.

而且我认为这值得更多考虑。

And I think it's something that deserves more consideration.

大多数人认为比特币要么会消亡，要么法币会消亡。

Most people think Bitcoin is either going to die or we're going to or Fiat is going to die.

这就是一种有效的共存场景，两者都能在未来五十年继续运作而不会消亡。

This is the scenario of coexistence effectively, where they could both continue to work for the next fifty years without either of them dying.

我认为这种情况确实有可能发生。

Think there's a distinct possibility that it might happen.

而法币的通胀实际上就是切实可行的过渡方案。

And fiat's inflation is the practical transition plan effectively.

要知道，人们有时会问我：从法币到比特币的过渡计划是什么？

Know, people sometimes ask me what is the transition plan from fiat to Bitcoin?

这某种程度上是促使我撰写《法币标准》的动机问题。

And that's kind of the motivating question for writing the fiat standard.

我认为法币通胀就是实际的过渡方案。

I think fiat inflation is the practical transition plan.

每个人都负债累累，当债务贬值时大家反而过得更好。

Everyone is in debt, everyone is better off when debt is devalued.

你越早转向比特币就越有利，因为你的储蓄会增值而债务会贬值。

The sooner you move to Bitcoin, the better off you will be because your savings appreciate as your debt devalues.

越多人明白这个道理，转型就会发生得越快。

And the more people figure this out, the faster it happens.

所以在我们走向战争的世界里，如果我们走向储蓄随时间增值而非债务增长的世界，我们将看到储蓄增长。

So in a world in which we move toward the war, if we move toward the world in which savings appreciate over time, rather than debt growing, we would see savings grow.

因此人们会用自己的储蓄来支付房屋汽车等消费品开支。

And so people will finance spending on consumer goods like houses and cars from their savings.

人们会用储蓄而非借贷来为企业融资。

People will finance their businesses from savings rather than by borrowing.

因此，比特币能将大量债务奴隶转变为储蓄者、企业家和资本家，这对人类繁荣的影响深远。

So Bitcoin can turn the masses of debt slaves to savers, entrepreneurs and capitalists, and the consequences to human flourishing are far reaching.

是储蓄者而非中央计划者在配置资本。

Savers allocate capital rather than central planners.

我认为这对人类将产生极其有益的影响。

That I think would be an enormously beneficial thing for humanity.

看看任何中央计划的事物，就能发现其效率多么低下。

Look at anything that is centrally planned and see how inefficient it is.

想象一下，如果资本掌握在全球储蓄者手中，由他们按需配置，而不是由官僚和中央计划者分配。

Imagine if capital was in the hand of savers all over the world to allocate it as they see fit, rather than having bureaucrats and central planners allocated.

我们很可能会拥有更多小型企业，而非更少的大型企业。

We'll likely have many more smaller firms than fewer larger firms.

想想人类历史上的美好年代（La Belle Epoque）。

Think about the la Belle Epoque in human history.

回顾金本位制的黄金时代，那时涌现了众多惊人创新——我在《比特币标准》第五章关于时间偏好的章节中讨论过这些。

Think about the golden era of the gold standard when we had all of these amazing innovations which I discussed in the Bitcoin Standard in chapter five, I think, of the Bitcoin Standard on time preference.

人们严重低估了那确实是创新的黄金时代，有大量定量和定性证据强烈表明这是人类历史上最具创新性的时期，我在《比特币标准》中详细讨论过这一点，我强烈建议你去了解一下。

It's very underrated how that really was the golden age of innovation and there's quantitative and qualitative evidence that strongly suggests this was the most innovative period of human history, and which I discussed in detail on the Bitcoin Standard, I urge you to look into it.

但在那时，每个人都拥有黄金储蓄。

But at that point, everybody had savings in gold.

黄金升值，人们持有黄金且黄金保值，他们会用这些储蓄来资助自己的想法。

Gold appreciated, people held their gold and their gold held onto its value, and they would use those savings to finance their ideas.

我最喜欢的例子是莱特兄弟。

My favorite example is the Wright Brothers.

莱特兄弟只是两个自行车店老板。

The Wright brothers were just two bicycle shop owners.

他们用经营自行车店利润中存下的积蓄和闲钱，投资制造飞机，而且他们并非孤例。

With their savings, with their spare money that they put aside from their profits of running their bicycle shop, they invested in building an airplane and they weren't the only ones.

当时有成千上万的人都在尝试让飞机飞起来。

There were hundreds and thousands of people out there trying to make airplanes work.

而这些人最终成功实现了这一壮举。

And these guys managed to make it happen.

他们是用自己的储蓄做到的。

They did it with their savings.

我相信，一个回归硬通货和储蓄增值而非债务的世界，将会有更多像莱特兄弟这样的人用储蓄进行实验，能够自由实践想法，而不必依赖中央计划者的资金支持。

I believe a world in which we go back to hard money and savings appreciating rather than debt is a world in which we get many more Wright Brothers experimenting with their savings, having the ability to let their ideas run rather than having to rely on central planners financing them.

因此，这种从法定货币体系向黄金或比特币标准过渡的美好前景是：它将催生一个不断增长的平行货币经济和金融体系，为采用者提供显著的升级优势。

So this kind of rosy transition scenario from a fiat standard to gold or to a Bitcoin standard is that it leads to a growing parallel monetary economy and financial system, which offers its adopters significant benefits for upgrading to it.

个人、企业和地方政府很可能会逐步迁移到这个货币体系中。

Individuals, businesses and local governments are likely to gradually migrate to this monetary system.

最终，经济中唯一仍依附于政府货币的将是政府本身，以及那些依赖政府货币的经济部门——这两者对有价值经济生产的贡献几乎为零。

Eventually, the only part of the economy that would remain wedded to government money would be government itself and the parts of the economy that are dependent on government money, both of whose contribution to valuable economic production is approximately zero.

面对现实吧，如果政府生产的任何东西被市场认可，那它早就在市场上被生产出来了。

Let's face it, if anything that government produced was valued by the market, it would be produced on the market.

政府生产的事实告诉我们，市场不愿意为此买单。

The fact that it is produced by government tells us that the market doesn't want to pay for it.

所以我认为我们将见证一个围绕比特币构建的自由市场经济体系成长壮大，吸引创新者、生产者和真正的生产力。

So we're gonna witness in my opinion, I think a free market economy build around Bitcoin and grow and attract innovators and producers and real production.

而僵化的旧中央计划经济将逐渐萎缩，慢慢变得无关紧要。

Whereas the sclerotic old centrally planned economy will effectively wither away and slowly shrink into irrelevance.

这是乐观的情景。

This is the rosy scenario.

这是想象中的美好愿景。

This is the kind of rosy scenario of imagining it.

显然，这并不是确定无疑的事情。

Now, obviously this isn't something that is certain.

我并不是说事情一定会这样发展。

I don't argue that this is how it's to happen.

我只是在探讨不同的可能性。

I'm just sort of exploring different scenarios.

但我认为这值得探讨，因为很少有人思考过这个问题，也很少有人考虑过这一点，我认为这是本书做出的原创性贡献。

But I think this is worth exploring because very few people think about it and very few people have considered it, and I think this is an original contribution that this book makes.

不过，我将考虑两个可能破坏这一情景的因素，它们可能会阻止这种有序的美好转型发生。

However, I'm going to consider two things that could derail this scenario, that could stop this orderly rosy transition from taking place.

其中一个因素是针对法定货币的投机攻击理念。

One such thing is the idea of speculative attacks against fiat currency.

当这两种法定货币与比特币货币体系共存时，由于人们可能进行投机攻击，我们不太可能看到它们平稳顺利地发展。

We are unlikely to see this develop smoothly and easily when these two fiat and Bitcoin monetary systems coexist with each other because of the likelihood of people carrying out speculative attacks.

那么什么是投机攻击？

So what is a speculative attack?

皮埃尔·罗查德在2013年就写过一篇关于如何用比特币投机攻击法定货币的论文，我强烈推荐大家阅读。

And Pierre Rochard has written a paper about how Bitcoin can be used to speculatively attack fiat money back in 2013, I think, which I highly recommend reading.

要知道，如果你觉得这种想法很荒谬，皮埃尔·罗查德早在十年前就讨论过这个问题了。

You know, if you think this is delusional today, Pierre Rochard was talking about it almost ten years ago.

所以他提出这种设想需要很大勇气，但我认为这极具洞察力，影响极其深远。

So it's a lot braver for him to mention that scenario, but I think it's extremely astute and extremely, extremely far reaching in its implications.

那么什么是投机攻击？

So what is a speculative attack?

投机攻击就是借入弱势货币来购买硬通货。

A speculative attack is when you borrow a weak currency to buy a hard currency.

当你借入弱势货币时，实际上增加了货币供应量——因为借贷行为本身就会扩大供应，这就是所谓的法币'挖矿'。当你从弱势货币体系中借款时，银行会增发该货币，从而推高供应量。

When you borrow the weak currency, you increase the supply because borrowing increases the supply, you know, fiat mining, when you borrow from weak currency, you're making the bank issue more of that currency, so you're increasing the supply.

然后你将借来的货币抛售，并用所得资金购入硬通货。

And then you sell that currency that you borrowed and you use it to buy the hard currency.

这样操作的结果是：你压低了刚刚抛售的弱势货币价格，同时抬高了刚购入的硬通货价格。

So what are you doing is you're lowering the price of the currency that you just bought, that you just sold, and you're raising the price of the hard currency which you just bought.

显然，硬通货的升值速度较慢，而弱势货币的通胀速度更快。

And of course the hard currency increases at a lower rate, whereas the weak currency increases at a higher rate.

这就是实施这种投机性攻击的根本动机。

That's the reason why you would carry out this speculative attack.

本质上，你是在利用金融杠杆放大两种货币体系之间的价值差异。

So you're effectively using your financial weight to pile on the differential between the two monetary systems.

一方面，弱势货币体系正在持续超发货币。

On the one hand, we have the monetary system with a weak currency that is creating more and more money.

你通过促进其进一步增发来放大这种效应，然后抛售这些货币，转而购买那些发行速度较慢的硬通货。

You magnify that by letting it create more money and then you sell that and you buy the hard currency which is created at a lower rate.

这很可能会加剧弱势货币的贬值，同时放大强势货币的升值。

So that likely exacerbates the devaluation of the weak currency and amplifies increase in valuation of the hard currency.

因此当你需要偿还贷款时，你必须用升值后的货币还款，这就是这种操作能盈利的原因。

And so therefore when you need to pay back your loan, you're having to make the payment back in the valued currency and that's why this thing becomes profitable.

你买入会升值的强势货币，然后卖出其中一部分来用贬值后的货币偿还贷款，从而获得可观利润。

You buy the hard currency which appreciates and then you sell some of it in order to pay back your loan in the devalued currency and you make a decent profit.

这就是乔治·索罗斯在1991年（也可能是1992年）击垮英格兰银行的手法。

This is what George Soros did to break the Bank of England in 1991, I think or 1992.

这也是对冲基金一直在做的事情。

And this is what hedge funds are doing all the time.

他们不断试图与不负责任的央行周旋，让其为自身的不负责任付出代价。

They're constantly out there trying to mess around with central banks that are irresponsible and making them pay for their irresponsibility.

当然，很多人喜欢为此责怪对冲基金，也喜欢归咎于乔治·索罗斯，我认为这没抓住重点。

Of course, lot of people like to blame the hedge funds for this and they like to blame George Soros for it, I think that misses the point.

乔治·索罗斯能得逞的原因，在于他利用了这些央行自身制造的弱点。

The reason that George Soros can get away with doing this is because he is playing on the weaknesses that these central banks are making themselves.

要知道，正是他们为自己的货币体系制造了这些弱点。

Know, they're the ones who create these weaknesses for their monetary system.

因此，如果我们继续看到越来越多这种借法币买比特币的投机性攻击，很可能会大规模加速这一进程。

So if we continue to have more and more of this kind of speculative attack where people borrow fiat in order to buy Bitcoin, that's likely to accelerate the process massively.

我们将无法享受缓慢过渡的奢侈。

We won't have the luxury of a slow transition.

我们将目睹所有人都想这样做——人人都想借法币，法币将崩盘，而比特币会越来越值钱。

We're going to witness everybody want to do this, everybody's going to want to borrow fiat, fiat's going to crash, more and more Bitcoin is going to rise.

但我认为这种情况存在变数，有些因素可能阻止这一趋势。

But I can't see this, I think that there are things that could stop this.

我在书中提到过两个主要因素，另外在完稿后又想到第三个因素，现在补充说明。

I think there's more two main factors that I mentioned in the book and one third one which I thought about after writing the book, which I'll add now.

第一个因素是：随着更多企业和富人借法币购买比特币，这种投机性攻击会愈演愈烈。

The first one is as more companies and rich individuals borrow fiat to buy Bitcoin, the speculative attack gathers strength.

但在这个人人都想持有债务资产、多数人无法持有比特币的世界里，这很容易实现。

But this is easy in a world where everyone wants to hold debt assets and most cannot hold Bitcoin.

当人们不信任比特币时，确实外面有很多钱可以借。

When people are not believing in Bitcoin, then yeah, there's a lot of money to be borrowed out there.

这并不十分稳定。

That's not very stable.

最终贷款人会意识到，既然我可以自己买比特币，为什么要借钱给别人去买比特币呢？

Eventually lenders are gonna realize, you know, why should I lend money to somebody who's going to use it to buy Bitcoin when I could just buy Bitcoin myself?

你看，这样我就能从所有升值中获益，为什么我要只承担违约风险而不享受全部好处呢？

It's, you know, I then benefit from all the appreciation, why should I just take on the risk of default without taking on all the benefits of it?

所以贷款人不太可能愿意继续在这种体系中放贷。

So it's unlikely that perhaps it is unlikely that lenders will want to continue to lend in this system.

我认为这种情况下还存在政府干预的可能。

And I think there's also the case of government intervention in this situation.

完全可以想象政府会介入并规定：如果你持有比特币就不能借法币。

It's not entirely impossible to imagine that governments are going to step in and say, you cannot borrow fiat if you own Bitcoin.

他们会想阻止你进行投机性攻击。

They're going to want to stop you from carrying out speculative attacks.

他们将分割资本市场，规定只有不购买比特币的人才能借入法币。

They're going to segregate capital markets where borrowing fiat is only available for people who don't buy Bitcoin.

我认为这种情况并非完全不可能。

I think that's not entirely out of the question.

这是政府若认为比特币增长过快时可能采取的一种打击手段。

And this is a kind of angle of attack that governments would carry out against Bitcoin if they think that it's growing too fast.

我要提到的第三个因素是比特币的巨大波动性会让更多人难以借贷。

And a third factor that I would mention now is the massive volatility of Bitcoin is going to make it hard for more people to borrow.

我认为我们看到过去一年左右借比特币买币的人，由于比特币价格暴跌遭受了巨大损失。

I think we saw a lot of the people who borrowed Bitcoin borrowed to buy Bitcoin over the last year or so have suffered enormously because of the crash in Bitcoin's price.

而且无法保证这种波动性会消失。

And there's no guarantee that this volatility is going to die.

因此我推测未来借比特币不会像过去一年那么容易，也许吧，也许不会。

And therefore, I would imagine that in the future, it's not going to be as easy to borrow Bitcoin as it was over the last year, perhaps, perhaps not.

这就是可能导致投机税方案脱轨的一个方面。

So that's one way in which the scenario could be derailed speculative tax.

但正如我所说，我们可能不会看到这种情况是有原因的。

But as I said, there's reasons why we might not see that.

而我认为对这种乐观转型情景构成严重威胁的最后一种方式，是央行数字货币的出现。

And the final way in which I think the serious threat to this kind of rosy transition scenario is the emergence of central banking digital currencies.

当我开始写这本书时，我对央行数字货币的理解是它不过是虚张声势的产物。

Now, I started writing the book, my idea of what central bank digital currencies was, was that it's just vaporware.

这只是央行为了显得创新而制造的热门词汇。

It's just buzzwords being produced by central banks who want to sound like they are innovative.

法币主要是数字化的。

Fiat money is predominantly digital.

法币本身就是一种央行数字货币，尽管其中一部分被印制成纸币，但绝大部分都是数字货币。

Fiat itself is a central bank digital currency, even though they print some of it into pieces of paper, the vast majority of it is a digital currency.

但我认为央行数字货币确实可能彻底改变法币和比特币的格局，因为它们从根本上改变了法币的运作方式，这对比特币有着深远影响。

But I think central bank digital currencies can really change everything for fiat money and for Bitcoin, because they change the way that fiat money works fundamentally in a way that has enormous implications for Bitcoin.

因此我们显然可以安全地忽略法币体系关于央行数字货币便捷快速的那些宣传说辞。

And so we can obviously safely ignore the propaganda of fiat regimes about wanting to reduce central bank digital currencies for convenience and speed.

这显然不是问题的关键。

That's clearly not the issue here.

央行数字货币（CBDC）是为监控、政治恩庇和经济中央集权而优化的。

CBDCs are optimized for surveillance, political patronage and economic central planning.

它们提高了通胀、征税和监控的效率，这对市场经济具有破坏性。

They increase the efficiency of inflation, taxation and surveillance, and that is destructive for the market economy.

这对中央银行有利。

It's good for central banks.

这对政府有利。

It's good for governments.

这对市场极为不利。

It's terrible for markets.

这对资本主义极为不利。

It's terrible for capitalism.

这对个人极为不利。

It's terrible for individuals.

我认为理解中央银行本质的最佳方式，就是将其视为苏联唯一银行——国家银行的数字形态。

And I think the best way of understanding what Central Banks are, it's just a digital form of GOS Bank, The Soviet Union's only bank.

在苏联体制下，全国只有一家银行，每个人都在这家银行开设账户。

Under the Soviet Union, you had one bank, and everybody had an account with that bank.

它替所有人决定一切事务。

And it decided everything for everybody.

它决定谁有权进行任何操作。

It decided who got to do anything.

所有权力都掌握在国家银行手中。

Everything was in the hand of the GOS Bank.

这消除了私营银行业，我认为这才是央行数字货币的真正威胁所在。

It eliminates the private banking industry and I think that's really the real threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies.

央行数字货币的最大输家不会是比特币，而是私营银行业——这也正是央行数字货币面临的最大阻力，因为银行绝非易与之辈，它们在政治经济领域极具影响力，政府想要彻底阉割其权力绝非易事。

The biggest loser from Central Bank Digital Currencies would not be Bitcoin, it would be the private banking industry, which I think is also the biggest resistance to central bank digital currencies, because you know, banks aren't exactly walkovers, they are politically and economically very influential, and it's not going to be easy for governments to just neuter them completely.

所以我认为这对他们构成了实质性威胁。

So I think that is a real threat to them.

然而，如果央行数字货币按设想的方式推进，每个人都将在央行开设账户，央行就能控制货币供应、监控交易流向，决定你能花多少钱以及花在哪些商品上。

However, if central bank digital currencies go ahead in the way in which they are imagined, everybody has a bank account with central the central bank can control the money supply, the central bank can control and sense of transactions, they decide how much money you get to spend and how much money you spend on whatever good.

我认为这将彻底改变法定货币的创造机制。

I think that completely changes the mechanism for fiat money creation.

它实际上将法定货币从信用货币转变为纯粹的法定货币。

It moves fiat money from being credit money to being pure fiat money in real terms.

而我认为这一点意义极其重大。

And that I think is enormously significant.

记得我们讨论恶性通胀案例时说过，观察法定货币的恶性通胀案例，它们从未发生在纯粹的信用货币体系中。

Remember when I was discussing the examples of hyperinflation, we said, look at the examples of hyperinflation in fiat, they never happen in a purely fiat credit system.

它们发生在信用货币体系中，当央行直接大量印钞时就会出现。

They happen in a fiat credit system that then has a central bank literally print large amounts of money.

当这些巨额货币被印出时，货币供应量会急剧增加，随之而来的经济影响将十分巨大。

When these large amounts of money are printed, that money supply increases massively and then the economic consequences are enormous.

因此，如果央行数字货币允许央行直接凭指令创造货币，向个人分发资金——直接印钞发给民众——那么这将极大改变法定货币的运作方式，因为它破坏了我之前提到的难度调节机制。

So it changes the mechanism for create if central bank digital currencies allow central banks to just create money by fiat directly, hand out money to individuals, just give the money to people and print it and give it to people, well then that's going to massively change the way that fiat currency operates because it destroys the difficulty adjustment that I mentioned earlier.

它消除了信贷周期。

It eliminates the credit cycle.

我们将进入与实物货币印刷非常相似的阶段。

We go to something very similar to physical money printing.

法定货币不再通过贷款产生，而是直接由法令创造。

Rather than fiat being mined from loans, fiat will be created by fiat.

创造货币的数量将不再受限。

It's just no limit on how much you can create more of it.

而且基本上，每隔几年就没有信贷周期来清除过量创造的货币并相对控制货币增长。

And there's no credit cycle to purge the excess money creation every few years and keep the money growth in relative check, basically.

你将直接面临像实物货币印刷那样的通货膨胀。

You're just going to get straight up inflation like with physical money printing.

这使得平稳过渡的可能性越来越小，而更可能出现恶性通货膨胀。

That makes the rosy transition scenario less and less likely and makes it more likely that we get hyperinflation.

我们已经看到量化宽松和全民基本收入正在将我们带向消除法定货币难度调节机制的方向。

We already see quantitative easing and universal basic income are already taking us in the direction of removing fiat's difficulty adjustment.

特别是全民基本收入，可能比量化宽松更甚，它们已经在朝这个方向发展了。

They're already in the way in which particularly universal basic income, perhaps more than quantitative easing.

它们正引导货币创造变得越来越随意，而非与信贷发行相关联。

They're taking us in the direction of money creation becoming more and more, just arbitrary rather than related to credit issuance.

这可能意味着政府支出将比现在更加不受约束。

And that may means government spending will even less restraint than what it has now.

要知道，政府仍需进入信贷市场，仍需关注其信用评级。

Know, governments, they still need to go to credit markets and they still need to watch their credit ratings.

如果借债过多，那将预示着可能出现问题，他们不想过度激怒信贷市场。

If they borrow too much, then that's a signal that things might be a problem and they don't wanna anger credit markets too much.

但在央行数字货币的世界里，他们无需再担心信贷市场。

But in a CBDC world, they don't have to worry about credit markets anymore.

他们可以直接印出所需货币，购买任何想要的东西。

They can just print their money that they need and buy whatever they want.

因此我认为这将导致价格大幅上涨。

And so I think that's going to cause serious price rises.

但央行数字货币在通胀方面的优势在于，它们使政府能够以当今常规法币无法实现的方式对价格进行中央计划控制。

But the advantage for central bank digital currencies, again, when it comes to inflation is that they allow governments to centrally plan prices in a way that they couldn't with regular fiat money that we have today.

凭借央行数字货币强大的监控能力，它们将能有效限制价格上涨的幅度。

Because of their ability to carry out enormous amounts of surveillance with central bank digital currencies, that's going to do a good job in basically limiting the extent of price rises.

这正是本书第八章、第九章和第十章内容将派上用场的地方。

And this is where the chapters of eight, nine and ten of this book are gonna come in handy.

第八、九、十章主要聚焦1970年代应对通胀的处理方式。

Chapters eight, nine and ten primarily focused on how inflation was dealt with in the 1970s.

我提出的基本论点是，他们通过说服人们停止食用肉类和停止使用碳氢燃料来降低通胀，因为这些商品价格敏感性强，能快速反映通胀。

And basically the argument that I advanced was the way that they managed to bring down inflation was to try and convince people to stop using meat and fuel, stop eating meat and stop consuming hydrocarbon fuels because those things are highly price sensitive and they reflect inflation very quickly.

如果你不再吃肉改吃工业废料，不再依赖油气转而使用前工业时代的风能太阳能，通胀问题就会变得容易忍受得多。

If you move away from meat and you start eating industrial waste, and if you move away from oil and gas and start consuming wind and solar using pre industrial technologies, well, inflation becomes a lot more tolerable.

当你用豆类和昆虫替代肉类时，通胀就不再是那么严重的问题。

Inflation is a lot less of a problem when you substitute your meat with soy and bugs and insects.

当你因封锁被困家中不再需要开车时，通胀问题也会变得容易忍受得多。

And inflation becomes a lot more tolerable when you no longer need to drive and you're stuck at home because you're locked down.

当你的电力来自风车时，每天只能获得几小时的供电。

And when your electricity comes from a windmill, so you only get a few hours of electricity every day.

这样涉及的燃料就更少了。

And there's less fuel involved there.

这就是为什么我们看到如此大力推动这些理念的原因。

And this is why we see this enormously popular drive to promote these ideas.

那么法定货币当局将如何利用央行数字货币来应对不断上升的通货膨胀呢？

So how will fiat authorities manage rising inflation with central bank digital currencies?

通过极权主义对支出的控制。

With totalitarian control of spending.

我们在第八、九、十章中看到，通胀如何推动了营养学、医学和气候伪科学的发展，这些伪科学都得出同一个结论：你需要减少消费那些价格快速上涨的经济商品，主要是肉类和碳氢燃料。

We saw in Chapters eight, nine and ten how inflation motivated the development of nutrition, medicine and climate pseudosciences, which all conclude that you need to reduce your consumption of economic goods whose prices rise quickly, mainly meat and hydrocarbon fuels.

随着央行数字货币带来更快的通胀，它们将允许对支出实施更有效的控制机制。

As central bank digital currencies bring faster inflation, they would allow more effective control mechanisms on spending.

有了央行数字货币，就不只是靠宣传骗你吃垃圾食品和减少燃料消耗那么简单了。

With Central Bank Digital Currencies, it's not just about propaganda fooling you into eating garbage and consuming less fuel.

它可以通过阻止你花钱购买这些东西来强制你。

It can force you by preventing you from spending money on these things.

因此，如果央行数字货币限制了燃料和肉类的消费，就不会出现严重的通货膨胀。

So there can't be much inflation if your consumption of fuels and meat is limited by Central Bank Digital Currencies.

如果你的央行数字货币每月只允许购买100克肉类，肉价就不会很高。

And if your Central Bank Digital Currencies will only allow you to buy 100 grams of meat every month, the price of meat is not going to be very high.

如果央行数字货币只允许你每周开车一小时并购买相应燃料，油价就不会很高，因为人们无法大量购买。

If Central Bank Digital Currency only allows you to drive your car, buy enough fuel to drive your car for one hour every week, the price of oil is not going to be very high because people can't buy it.

因此，中央管控可以保护货币免于崩溃。

So central control can protect the currency from collapse.

如果你观察许多苏联和社会主义共和国，它们并未经历高通胀。

If you look at a lot of the Soviet and Socialist Republics, they didn't experience high inflation.

它们只是货架空空如也。

They just had empty shelves.

如果你不进食，就不会有通胀。

If you don't eat, there isn't inflation.

因此通货膨胀只在苏联解体后才显现出来，当时他们试图推行自由市场体系，或者说没有强制推行，当他们拥有自由市场货币体系时，价格才反映出这一点。

So the inflation only manifested after the collapse of the Soviet Union when they tried to impose a free market system or not impose, when they had a free market monetary system, that's when it reflected on the prices.

但在此之前，价格是受控制的，因为支出是受控制的。

But before that, prices were under control because spending was under control.

你买不到肉，所以肉的价格很低。

You couldn't buy meat, and so therefore the price of meat was low.

没错，苏联时期的肉非常便宜，但你根本买不到。

So yeah, meat was very cheap in the Soviet Union, but you just couldn't get it.

我认为这正是央行数字货币（CBDC）威胁要将世界带往的方向。

And I think this is where CBDCs are threatening to take the world.

这是理解那些想说服你不吃肉、不燃烧燃料就能拯救地球的伪科学日益流行的唯一方式。

This is the only way to understand the growing popularity of the pseudosciences which want to convince you that not eating meat and not burning fuel will save the planet.

这就是为什么这些完全愚蠢的伪科学如此受欢迎。

This is why these completely idiotic pseudosciences are so popular.

认为燃料消耗会毁灭地球的说法毫无科学依据。

There's no scientific basis for believing that your consumption of fuel is going to destroy the planet.

根本不存在气候危机。

There is no climate crisis.

你吃的牛不会毁灭地球。

The cow that you eat is not going to destroy planet Earth.

牛放屁对人类或地球构不成生存威胁。

Cow farts are not an existential threat to humanity or Earth.

这对价格水平、对CPI构成生存威胁。

It's an existential threat to the price level, to the CPI.

所以为了压低CPI，为了维持没有通胀的假象，你们只需要停止食用这些东西。

So in order to keep CPI down, in order to maintain the illusion of no inflation, you're just gonna need to stop eating those things.

这就是为什么这些伪科学大行其道。

And that's why these pseudosciences are extremely popular.

当然，这些伪科学完全由通胀法币资助绝非巧合。

And of course, it's no coincidence that these pseudo sciences are entirely financed by inflationary fiat money.

它们唯一的目的就是维护通胀法币体系。

And their only purpose is to preserve inflationary fiat money.

这就是我称之为'法定科学'的原因。

This is why I like to call it fiat science.

它由法定货币资助，并会强制你接受其结论的法定衍生影响。

It's financed by Fiat and it'll force you to accept the ramification of its conclusions by Fiat.

要知道，如果你自己做研究就会发现，不，这完全是垃圾。

You know, if you do your own research and realize, no, this is complete garbage.

吃肉对我没有坏处，吃肉也不会毁灭地球。

Eating meat is not bad for me and eating meat is not going to destroy the planet.

但你依然别无选择。

You still have no choice.

政府政策将迫使你吃越来越少的肉。

Government policy is going to force you to eat less and less meat.

他们将提高肉类税收，并实施配额和数量控制，通过法令阻止你吃肉。

They're going to tax meat more, and they're going to impose ratios and quantity controls that will prevent you from eating meat by fiat.

这就是为什么它是'法定科学'。

That's why it's fiat science.

这里根本没有科学方法可言。

There's no scientific method here.

不存在任何科学辩论。

There's no scientific debate.

你必须相信它。

You have to believe it.

而这将通过你们的央行数字货币来实现。

And that's going to be done through your CBDC.

石油问题也是如此。

Same is true with oil.

你可以自行研究气候与能源问题，然后发现这显然完全是无稽之谈。

You can do your own research on climate and energy and you realize, no, this is obviously complete garbage.

地球不会因为化石燃料的使用而毁灭。

The planet is not going to burn down because of fossil fuel use.

尽管你希望继续使用那些对生存、过冬、现代生活和获取现代技术至关重要的燃料，但法定央行数字货币将阻止你这么做。

And you would like to continue to consume the fuels that are essential for your survival and for your ability to survive the winter and for your ability to live the modern life and for your access to modern technology, fiat CBDCs will prevent you from doing it.

即使你不相信肉类消费会导致海洋沸腾，央行数字货币也不会允许你购买更多肉类。

Your CBDC will not allow you to buy more meat even if you are not convinced that it is boiling oceans.

因此通过央行数字货币，配给制、重税和直接禁令将影响价格敏感商品。

And so rationing, heavy taxation and outright bans will hit price sensitive goods thanks to CBDCs.

以拯救气候为借口，封锁措施将变得越来越普遍。

Lockdowns will become more and more common under the pretext of saving the climate.

就在最近几周，英国牛津宣布将于2024年开始实施气候封锁。

And just recently, just in the last couple of weeks, saw how Oxford in England has now announced climate lockdown starting in 2024.

他们计划将人们限制在城市特定区域，禁止跨区活动——因为在他们看来，从城东到城西的移动会毁灭地球、导致海平面上升、让我们流血并使世界分崩离析。

They're gonna start locking people into regions of the city where you can't leave this because apparently going from one side of town to the other side of town is going to destroy the planet and make the oceans rise and, blood us and just make the world, fall apart.

要知道，整个星球不过是太空中围绕巨大太阳运转的一块巨大岩石。

Know, entire planet's a massive, massive, massive ball of rock hurtling through space around a giant ball of sun.

它的恒温器就是你的驾驶能力。

Its thermostat is your ability to drive.

如果你开车，就会毁掉这个星球。

If you drive, you're going to ruin this planet.

这完全是荒谬的伪科学，但这就是我们的发展方向。

It's completely ridiculous pseudoscience, but this is where we're going.

我认为这就是央行数字货币将要带来的结果。

And I think this is what CBDCs are going to do.

这是央行数字货币唯一能控制通胀的方式。

That's the only way inflation can be managed with CBDCs.

记住苏联在1980年代人民挨饿时，仍持续公布令人印象深刻的经济增长数据。

So remember the Soviet Union continued to produce impressive economic growth numbers into the 1980s as its people were going hungry.

西方的法定货币经济学家直到1980年代仍将其鼓吹为成功案例。

Fiat economists in the West continued to proclaim it as success well into the 1980s.

书中有段引述来自保罗·萨缪尔森和威廉·诺德豪斯——法定货币体系中最受推崇的两位重要经济学家。

There's a quote in the book with Paul Samuelson and William Nordhaus, two of the most important fiat economists that are highly revered in the fiat world.

我的意思是，这些人对经济学一窍不通——在他们1989年版的愚蠢教科书《经济学原理》中，居然声称苏联经济将超越美国经济。

I mean, they are completely clueless about economics because those people in the 1989 edition of their stupid textbook called Principles of Economics, they argue that the Soviet economy will outperform The United States economy.

他们甚至在苏联经济崩溃时还在说这种话，因为这群信奉荒谬宏观经济学的宏观经济学家实在太蠢了。

They were saying this even as the Soviet economy was falling apart because they are dumb macro economists who believe in idiotic macroeconomics.

当然，他们两人都获得了所谓的诺贝尔经济学奖，这是瑞典央行颁发的垃圾奖项。

Of course, both of them won the supposed Nobel Prize in Economics, which is garbage award from the Central Bank of Sweden.

这足以说明其质量。

And it shows you the quality.

我认为这是对主流法定经济学质量及其从业者完全无知的最佳证明——他们看着苏联的这些统计数据，竟能声称这证明了中央计划有效且将胜过经济自由。

I think this is the best testament to the quality of mainstream fiat economics and how completely clueless the people in it are, that they can look at these statistics from the Soviet Union and say that it proves that central planning works and that central planning will outperform economic freedom.

这就是这些愚蠢教科书在整个1990年代苏联解体时不断重复的陈词滥调。

This was the line that these dumb textbooks all parroted into the 1990s as the Soviet Union collapsed.

我认为这就是法定经济学家在央行数字货币中央计划模式下对待法定经济的方式。

And I think this is how fiat economists are going to treat the fiat economy under a CBDC central planning model.

我们将看到经济在令人印象深刻的宣传统计数据下走向最终衰退，而经济学家们只会试图说服你：不，实际上，吃昆虫和虫子是为了你好。

We're going to see terminal decline into economic irrelevance under impressive propaganda statistics and economists just trying to convince you that no, actually, it's for your own good that you're eating insects and bugs.

不吃肉是为了你好。

It's for your own goods that you're not eating meat.

被困在家里是为了你好。

It's for your own good that you're stuck at home.

限制你的消费转向非价格敏感商品是为了你好。

It's for your own good that your consumption is going to head toward the things that are not price sensitive.

你将主要消费数字商品和批量生产的商品。

Digital goods and mass produced goods are going to be what you consume.

石油、燃料、肉类、真正的营养品——这些正是他们要把你引导远离的东西。

Oil, fuel, meat, real nutrition, those are the things that you're gonna be headed shepherded away from.

因此法币CBDC将主要用于购买政府批准的大规模生产商品和数字商品。

So fiat CBDCs will be valuable for purchasing government approved, mass produced and digital goods.

至于其他一切，还有比特币。

For everything else, there's Bitcoin.

我认为这就是我们将要见证CBDC体系下世界经济发展的方式。

This is I think why how we're going to be witnessing the world economy developed under a CBDC system.

第五章论述了法币通胀如何作为矢量，在不同商品中呈现差异化表现。

Inflation as a vector in chapter five on how fiat money is reflected, how fiat inflation is reflected differently in different goods.

数字商品的价格正在持续下降。

Digital goods are constantly dropping in price.

大规模生产的商品价格正以轻微幅度下降或以极小幅上涨。

Mass produced goods are dropping in price at a slight rate or increasing at a very slight rate.

而那些需要大量人力、劳动密集型、依赖人工关注的商品，则变得越来越昂贵。

And then goods that require human extensive goods that are labor intensive that require human attention, these become more and more expensive.

在生产过程中难以掺假的商品，其价格也会持续攀升。

Goods that are not easy to cheat in their production, they become more and more expensive.

因此石油对价格高度敏感。

So oil is highly price sensitive.

能源无法造假，也不能通过法令凭空创造。

It's energy, you can't cheat energy, you can't make energy by fiat.

营养也是如此，无法通过法令制造营养，也不能凭空变出肉类。

Nutrition also, you can't make nutrition by fiat, you can't make meat by fiat.

一头牛需要放牧一年半才能长到可供食用的体型。

A cow needs to go out on and graze for a year and a half before it grows up enough to be eaten.

所以这些商品都对价格非常敏感。

And so these things are price sensitive.

你将被引导远离消费那些东西。

You're going to be shepherded away from consuming those things.

你的生活体验将围绕那些廉价且不受通胀影响的事物展开。

And your experience of life is going to center around things that are cheap and that don't reflect inflation.

所以如果你住在一个小公寓里，你就不需要支付大量取暖费用。

So if you live in a tiny apartment, then you don't require a lot of heating costs.

如果你的生活体验主要变成数字化的，比如进入元宇宙，戴上头显而不是出门旅行去某个美丽的地方——你可以去海滩或爬山，你只需坐在沙发上，戴上头显，就能体验山脉和海滩。

And if your life experiences become primarily digital, you know, you get on the metaverse, you wear a headset instead of going out and traveling to somewhere nice where you can go to the beach and climb a mountain, you just sit on your couch, and you wear a headset, and you get to experience the mountain and you get to experience the beach.

这对抑制通胀将非常有利。

That's going to be enormously better for inflation.

这就是我们要去往的方向。

This is where we're going.

这就是所有关于元宇宙的胡言乱语将我们带往的地方。

This is where all of this nonsense about the metaverse is taking us.

这就是所有关于吃虫子的无稽之谈将我们引向的方向。

This is where all the nonsense about eating bugs is taking us.

你吃虫子，住在胶囊舱里，戴着头显，以数字方式体验生活，没有大家庭甚至根本不组建家庭，因为你知道生孩子对环境有害。

You eat bugs, you stay in the pod, you wear your headset, you experience life digitally, you don't have a large family or you don't have a family at all because you know having kids is bad for the environment.

这就是央行数字货币经济将我们带向的方向。

That's where the CBDC economy is taking us.

在我看来，这就是法币的终局。

This is the end game for Fiat in my mind.

而在那个世界里，比特币将成为你购买人们真正想要的东西的唯一途径——购买燃料的唯一方式，购买肉类的唯一方式。

And in that world, Bitcoin is going to be the only way that you can buy the real things that people want, the only way that you can buy fuel, only way that you can buy meat.

因此你可以想象世界上将出现两种新的全球经济体系。

So you can imagine two new global economies emerging across the world.

一方面，是轻松货币、中央计划经济，政府、媒体和学术界都坚持你必须参与其中。

On the one hand, there's easy money, centrally planned economy, of which government, media, and academia insist that you must be a part.

它提供免受竞争威胁的舒适工作岗位和受控价格，确保每个人都能获得政府推荐的大豆、昆虫、高果糖玉米糖浆制品，住在狭小房屋里，消耗少量能源，并且少生或不生孩子以避免给地球带来麻烦的通胀压力。

It provides comfortable jobs secured from competition and controlled prices to ensure everyone gets their government recommended soy, bug, high fructose corn syrup operations, stays in a tiny home, consumes little energy, and has few or no kids to avoid burdening the planet with inconvenient inflationary pressure.

而另一方面则是一个不断增长、创新且非政治化的经济体，吸引着世界上最有抱负、最具创造力和生产力的人们努力工作，为他人提供有价值的商品。

And on the other hand is a growing, innovative, and apolitical economy, which draws in the most ambitious, creative and productive people in the world to work hard on providing goods of value to others.

我认为，这确实是我们将目睹央行数字货币发展过程中系统演变的真实图景。

This is really, I think how we're going to be seeing the system unfold in the case of the growth of central bank digital currencies.

即便没有央行数字货币，我们已经在某种程度上看到了这种趋势，但我认为这是让我们看到原本乐观情景逐渐褪色的一个视角。

We're already seeing it without central bank digital currencies to an extent, but I think this is a way in which we can see the kind of rosy scenario get a little less rosy.

集中化的通货膨胀将催生类似社会主义社会存在的货币等级制度。

Centralized inflation will create a monetary caste system similar to that which exists in socialist societies.

一个拥有大量稀缺商品的统治阶级，与依赖黑市生存的多数群体并存。

A ruling class with an abundance of desirable goods and a majority surviving thanks to a black market.

而在这个情境下，黑市将由比特币充当。

And the black market in this case is going to be Bitcoin.

逃离这种反乌托邦的唯一出路就是比特币。

Your only way out of this dystopia is Bitcoin.

要知道，随着通货膨胀和央行数字货币的盛行，比特币的销售说辞只会变得越来越有说服力——因为它们才是真正的替代选择。

And this is really, you know, the sales pitch for Bitcoin is just gonna continue to get easier and easier the more inflation and central bank digital currencies become prevalent because they're the real alternative.

或许有人认为央行数字货币是比特币的竞争对手，但实际上它们更像是比特币的活广告。

So some might think that central bank digital currencies are competition for Bitcoin, but they are more like advertising for Bitcoin.

比特币的重要性不在于它是数字化的。

The important thing about Bitcoin is not that it is digital.

法币本身也基本是数字化的。

Fiat is mostly digital anyway.

比特币之所以重要，是因为它具有抗审查和抗通胀的特性。

Bitcoin matters because it is censorship resistant and inflation resistant.

中央银行的存在恰恰是为了做相反的事。

Central banks exist to do the exact opposite.

它们的存在就是为了审查支付流程并制造通胀。

They exist to censor payment processing and create inflation.

央行数字货币只是让央行能更高效地执行这些职能，与比特币完全背道而驰。

Central bank digital currencies simply allow central banks to perform this more efficiently, the complete opposite of Bitcoin.

随着央行数字货币极权主义的加剧，比特币的抗审查和抗通胀价值主张将愈发明显。

As central bank digital currency totalitarianism intensifies, Bitcoin's censorship resistance and inflation resistance value proposition becomes more obvious.

因此我认为，纯法币CBDC的发展将使有序升级到更硬通货的可能性降低，反而可能导致比特币与法币这两个敌对货币体系间的经济隔离。

So in conclusion, I think the growth of a purely fiat CBDC will make an orderly upgrade to a harder money less likely, and instead will probably result in economic apartheid between two hostile monetary systems, Bitcoin and Fiat.

法币经济将完全受到监管和监控，持续承受通胀压力，并为日益暴力且专制的政府提供资金，这些政府控制着民众的购买决策。

The Fiat economy will be fully regulated and surveilled, constantly subject to inflationary pressure and financing increasingly violent and authoritarian governments that control their purchasing decisions.

比特币经济将是一个基于硬通货的自由市场，允许其主权成员自由储蓄、交易和规划未来，同时为全球廉价能源生产的增长提供资金。

The Bitcoin economy would be a free market based on hard money, allowing its sovereign members to save, trade and plan for the future freely, while financing the growth of cheap energy production worldwide.

本课程到此结束。

This concludes this course.

我认为这就是我对未来发展趋势所能给出的最佳答案的结论。

And this is I think my conclusion of the best answer that I can come up for of how things will develop.

我认为如果推行央行数字货币，将会出现这些情景。

I think if we get CBDCs is going to be the scenarios.

我认为如果银行体系和支持自由的力量能够在未来二三十年内控制住央行数字货币和通货膨胀，将其维持在相对温和的范围内，就像我们在过去二三十年现代发达经济体中看到的那样。

I think if the banking system and forces that are supportive of freedom are able to rein in CBDCs and rein in inflation over the next few decades or two, keeping it in the relatively benign range in which we saw in modern developed economies over the last decade or two.

要知道，如果美国、欧洲和更发达经济体未来三十年的通胀率与过去三十年相似，而非仅像最近两年那样，那么我认为我们会更倾向于有序过渡的债务豁免情景。

You know, inflation in The US and Europe and the more advanced economies over the next three decades is similar to the last three decades rather than just the last two years, then I think we lean more toward the orderly transition debt jubilee scenario.

但如果通胀加剧、央行数字货币加剧、极权主义对央行和货币的监控与控制加剧，那么我想我们将目睹更多这种金融隔离的情景。

But if inflation intensifies and CBDCs intensify and totalitarian surveillance and control over central banking and money intensifies, then I imagine we're going to witness more of this kind of financial apartheid scenario.

这是我能想到的关于比特币如何在法币世界中崛起的最佳答案。

This is the best answer I could come up with for how Bitcoin rises in a fiat world.

我确实需要写完这本书的全部内容才能得出这个答案。

And this is it really took me writing all of this book to try and come up with this answer.

非常感谢你们参加这门课程、阅读这本书、并对我的工作感兴趣，希望你们也会喜欢我的下一本书和课程。

I thank you so much for joining this course and for taking it for reading the book and for being interested in my work and I hope you enjoy my next books and courses as well.

非常感谢。

Thank you very much.