308. 法币、通货膨胀与文明的崩溃——与丹尼·诺尔斯对话

他们只是把钱直接存入

They're just putting the money straight

中间。

the middle.

安全。

Safe.

没错。

Yeah.

在法币体系中，不可能比这更安全了。

It can't be safer than that in the fiat system.

你知道，唯一可能导致它崩溃的方式，就是整个美联储崩溃。

You know, the only way this collapses is if the entire Federal Reserve collapses.

他们并没有对任何商业模式进行限制。

They are not withholding to any business model.

他们的业务运营不需要销售任何东西。

They don't have to sell any kind of things in order for their business to operate.

他们只是把钱存入了美联储。

They just put the money in the Federal Reserve.

嗯。

Mhmm.

但问题是，它太稳定了。

But the problem is that it's too stable.

它太稳定了，以至于所有人都会把钱转移到那里，导致其他所有金融市场崩溃。

It's so stable that everybody would move their money there, and then all the rest of the financial markets would come crashing down.

所以我认为黄金的情况也类似。

So I think it's something similar with gold.

如果有一些国家以黄金作为货币，它们的货币会很强劲，所有人都想把资本转移到那里。

If you were to have countries that use gold as money, their currencies would be strong and everybody would want to move their capital there.

所以上世纪七十年代瑞士的情况就是这样，当通胀爆发时，瑞士确实是通胀率最低的国家，所有人都把钱转移到瑞士。

So that's what the situation was with like with Switzerland from the nineteen seventies really with and when inflation took off, Switzerland really remained the least inflationary country and everybody was moving their money to Switzerland.

每个人都想要一个瑞士银行账户。

Everybody wanted a Swiss bank account.

因此在1990年代，瑞士不得不在金融上被彻底打压。

That's why in the 1990s, Switzerland had to be essentially taken down financially.

他们迫使瑞士出售一半的黄金储备。

They made them sell half their gold.

他们迫使瑞士陷入各种通货膨胀的荒唐行为和挥霍开支。

They made them get into all kinds of inflationary nonsense and money spending.

他们对银行施加了各种限制，勒索银行支付巨额款项，然后威胁要实施制裁，最终废除了银行保密制度。

They introduced all kinds of restrictions onto the banks and they extorted the banks to pay a lot of money and then they imposed sanctions on the well, not imposed, they threatened sanctions on the banks and they got rid of banking secrecy.

所以他们把瑞士及其经济彻底搞成了垃圾币化的状态。

So they shitty shitcoinified the rest of Switzerland and the Swiss economy, basically.

这并不是因为瑞士对本国储户构成了危险。

So the and and it's not because Switzerland was dangerous for the depositors in Switzerland.

而是因为它对其他人构成了威胁。

It's because it was dangerous for everybody else.

我的意思是，仅仅希望自己的钱保值——甚至不求增值，只是保持购买力——竟然被视为一种极端立场，这简直荒谬至极。

I mean, it's insane that the idea of just wanting your money to retain value, not even increasing value, just retain your purchasing power, that that's an extreme position to take is wild.

是的。

Yes.

我知道。

It's I know.

你怎么敢想保留自己的钱呢？

It's it's like how how dare you want to keep your own money?

你太自私了。

That's so selfish of you.

这是反社会的。

It's antisocial.

这是病态的。

It's, sociopathic.

你的钱某种程度上属于别人。

Your money belongs somehow.

这可能还带有种族歧视。

To It's probably racist.

当然。

Definitely.

绝对是性别歧视和厌女的。

Definitely sexist and misogynist.

我的意思是，你可以看到，这完全是建立在‘你的钱不属于你’这个观念之上的。

I mean, you can see how it's just built on the idea that your money is not yours.

你的钱属于社会。

Your money belongs to society.

是的。

Yeah.

而政府决定如何将它分配给社会。

And the government decides how it, allocates it to society.

而我们以无限的智慧决定，让你把钱留在法币庞氏骗局中更安全，这样就有更多人来回转移资金，我们的GDP也因此大幅增长——而你知道，这不过是掩盖我们正在稀释你的财富并将其夺走的手段。

And we, in our infinite wisdom, have decided that it is more safe, It is safer for you to keep your money in the Fiat Ponzi scheme so that a lot of people are moving it around back and forth, we get a lot more GDP, which, you know, is just basically cover for we're going to devalue your wealth and take it.

是的。

Yeah.

从很早的时候，比如1914年，正如你所说，凯恩斯就处于这一核心位置。

From the very early days, so 1914, like you said, Keynes was at the the heart of this.

你认为他们当中有没有人这么想过：我们现在稍微印点钱，度过这场战争，然后就会财政负责。

Do you think any part of them was like, we can just print a bit of money now, get through this war, and then we'll be fiscally responsible.

我们会偿还这笔债务，一切都会好起来，以后再也不这么做了。

We'll pay back that debt, and it'll all be okay, and then we won't do that again.

你认为他们当时是这么想的，而不是逐步演变成我们今天这种局面？

Do think that's the way they were thinking about it rather than escalating to what we've got today?

我猜是这样的。

I would imagine so.

我认为这就是实际情况。

I think that's how it is.

我的意思是，我没有确凿的证据，因为毕竟我们没有他们当时讨论的录音记录。

Mean, I have no I have no hard evidence on this because, you know, that we don't have we don't have recordings of the exact discussions they were having with them.

我们只有一些零星幸存下来的信件。

We only have a few letters here and there that survived.

但我觉得，你知道，了解通货膨胀的运作方式，这种心态就是总想着再扛一次。

But I think, you know, just knowing how inflation goes, it's the kind of it's the kind of mentality where it's always just take one hit.

再撑一次，然后我就要改过自新了。

You know, one more hit and then I'm gonna go clean.

再喝最后一晚酒，然后我就戒酒了。

Just one more night of getting drunk and then I'm going to stop drinking.

这就是成瘾者的逻辑。

It's the the addict logic.

我觉得，没错，当时有世界大战。

And I think, yeah, there was world war.

那是一场巨大的战争。

It was huge.

我们必须击败德国人。

We had to defeat the Germans.

我们不能让德国人赢。

We can't let the Germans win.

如果德国赢了，他们就会控制整个欧洲，那太糟糕了。

If Germany wins, then they have all of Europe and that's terrible.

所以我们必须尽一切努力。

So we must do everything we can.

但这些事情会不断累积，失去所有比例。

But these things just snowball out of all proportion.

我们知道这一直都在持续。

Know it's just been going on.

我们现在距离那时已经一百一十一年了，英镑仍在持续贬值。

It's here we are one hundred and eleven years later and the pound is still being devalued.

在那个阁楼的比喻中，当你再按一次按钮时，游戏就结束了。

And in that attic analogy, at some point when you press the button one more time, game is over.

你要么过量服用，要么发生其他情况。

You'll either overdose or whatever it is.

是的。

Yeah.

你没钱了，买不到更多毒品，或者 overdose 死了。

You run out of money and you can't get more drugs or you overdose and you die.

所以基本上就是恶性通货膨胀，或者

So basically hyperinflation or

你觉得我们离那一步有多近？

And how close do you think we are to that?

我不知道。

I don't know.

这是一个非常困难的问题。

It's a it's a very difficult question.

我的意思是，很多人本来以为它在 1970 年代就应该已经发生了，当时看起来非常可能在 1970 年代发生。

I mean, I I a lot of people would have thought it should have already happened in the 1970s and it looked like it was very likely to happen in the 1970s.

你知道，我们当时经历的通胀水平非常高，是此后从未见过的，但它却撑住了。

You know, the level of inflation that we had back then was outstanding, like nothing we've seen since then, but it's stuck through.

所以也许它能持续更久。

So maybe it can survive longer.

然后是法币体系，我深入研究了这个问题，并论证了为什么法币无法持续生存，以及这意味什么。

Then the Fiat standard, you know, I look at this question in-depth, and I make the case for why why you know, the steel man case for why fiat can't continue to survive and what that means.

我认为，过去五十年，甚至过去一百一十多年来我们一直踢着罐子往前走的那些东西，仍然可以继续下去。

And I think the same things that we've had for the last fifty years or for even the one hundred and eleven years of kicking the can down the road, it can continue.

但我觉得比特币有趣的地方在于，即使这种情况发生，它依然能够持续增长。

But I think what is interesting about Bitcoin is that it can continue to grow even if that is the case.

我认为，这或许是法币体系中一个略微原创的见解：大多数人认为，当法币崩溃时，比特币才会崛起并取而代之，比特币必须杀死法币，法币必须死亡，比特币才能崛起。

And I think this is this was perhaps a little bit of an original contribution in the fiat standard and that most people think Bitcoin rises and takes over when fiat dies, and Bitcoin has to kill fiat, and that fiat has to die if Bitcoin is going to rise.

但在我看来，完全有可能我们只是继续延续过去五十年法币的趋势，以及过去十五年比特币（而非黄金）的趋势。

But it's entirely plausible in my mind that we just continue with the same trend that we've had over the last fifty years with fiat and over the last fifteen years with gold sorry, with Bitcoin.

比特币继续升值。

That And Bitcoin continues to appreciate.

法币继续贬值。

Fiat continues to depreciate.

由于通货膨胀摧毁了价值，同时人们从法币转向比特币，法币经济将逐渐萎缩，而比特币经济则会不断扩大。

The Fiat economy becomes smaller over time because inflation is destroying value and because people move from Fiat to Bitcoin, and the Bitcoin economy gets larger over time.

再将这种趋势延伸十年、二十年、三十年。

Extrapolate that over another ten, twenty years, thirty years.

最终，比特币经济将变得更大，并主导全球。

Eventually, the Bitcoin economy becomes bigger, and we have a Bitcoin economy that dominates the world.

而法币将继续成为世界经济中越来越不重要的部分。

And fiat continues to become a less and less significant part of the world economy.

从某种意义上说，过去十年正是如此。

In a sense, this is what's been going on over the last ten years.

我们正在用聪来重新定价一切，并将整个世界重新计价为聪。

You know, we're repricing everything in sats, and we're redenominating the entire world in Satoshis.

所以，其他所有东西都需要再下跌90%，以聪来计算，而比特币经济则增长约100倍。

So, you know, they just need to every everything else needs to drop another 90% and in Satoshi terms, and the Bitcoin economy grows another 100 x or so.

然后，世界将实际上进入比特币标准。

And then the world is effectively on a Bitcoin standard.

因此，我不再等待法币消亡，而是尽情享受比特币的增长。

So I've stopped waiting for Fiat to die, and I'm just enjoying Bitcoin growth.

你正在享受比特币的胜利。

You're enjoying Bitcoin winning.

这让我想起，昨天在会议上我们做了一个小组讨论，你说比特币价格是唯一重要的事情。

So this reminds me, we were doing a panel yesterday at the conference, and you said the Bitcoin price is the only thing that matters.

我想这就是原因。

And I guess this is why.

对吗？

Is that right?

是的，完全正确。

Yeah, absolutely.

这是记分牌。

It's the scoreboard.

我的意思是，很多人有一种反资本主义的心态，正如米塞斯所称的那样，他们认为想要财务安全是道德上有问题的，如果你关心孩子的未来，你就是个坏人。

I mean, it's a a lot of people have this kind of it's it's it's the anti capitalist mentality as Mises calls it, where people think that, you know, wanting to be financially secure is morally dubious, that you're a bad person if you care about securing your kids.

如果你不希望你的孩子成为债务奴隶，那你就是自私、邪恶、反社会的人。

If you don't want your kids to be debt slaves, then you're a selfish, evil, sociopathic person.

你知道，就像那些想保住自己钱的价值的人一样。

You know, just like people who want to keep the value of their money.

在现代法币社会中，这些行为被病理化了，因为那是政府的宣传。

These things are pathologized in modern fiat society because that's government propaganda.

他们需要你的钱，需要你当奴隶，还需要你的孩子当奴隶，来缴税并承受通胀之苦。

They need your money, and they need you to be a slave, and they need your kids to be slaves, to pay taxes and to suffer from inflation.

所以如果你试图绕开这种体系，就会遭到大量的社会非议。

So if you try and find a way around this, you get a lot of, social disapproval.

你会遭到大量的仇恨。

You get a lot of, hate.

所以，我认为，归根结底，正是宣传在维持这种状况，但我相信在现实世界中，人们只会继续做对自己有利的事。

So, I think, ultimately, it's just, I I I think the propaganda is what continues that, but I think in the real world, people are just going to continue to behave in a way benefits them.

而比特币成功或失败的真正衡量标准，就是比特币的市值有多大。

And the real measure of how Bitcoin succeeds or fails is just how big the market capitalization of Bitcoin is.

你知道，如果你考虑鞋类市场，地球上大约有160亿只脚，需要被鞋子覆盖，这就是总的潜在市场。

It's you know, if if you're thinking about the market for shoes, there's total addressable market, 16,000,000,000 feet on earth that you have to cover with shoes roughly.

如果你占据了这部分市场，别人就得不到。

And if you have a chunk of that market, somebody else doesn't.

嗯。

Mhmm.

你能在这个市场中占据多少份额的鞋子。

And it's how much of that shoes can you take in that market.

而比特币处于货币市场中，而货币是所有市场中最大的。

And then Bitcoin is in the market for money, and money is the biggest market of all.

人们不会这样看待它，就像鱼不明白水是什么一样。

People don't think of it that way in the same way that fish don't understand what water is.

但货币本身就是一个市场。

But money is a market itself.

我们不会这样想，因为政府通常希望我们把货币视为市场的中性层。

We don't think of it that way because government generally wants us to think of money as just being the neutral layer of a market.

市场是发生在货币之上的东西。

A market is something that is happening It's built on top of money.

建立在货币之上，但货币本身也是一个市场。

Built on top of money, but money itself is a market.

这就是强大的奥地利学派理念。

And that's the powerful Austrian idea.

一旦你把货币视为一个市场，你就会意识到它有一个总的可服务市场，即全球所有的现金余额。

And once you think of money as a market, you realize it has a total addressable market, which is all of the world's cash balances.

所有人们持有货币的目的只是为了持有货币本身，而不是作为投资，也不是作为人们持有的财富，不是作为消费品，也不是作为投资品和资本品，而是作为货币，作为流动性财富，人们持有它们以便日后消费。

All of the money that people hold for the sake of money, not as investment and not as you know, the the wealth that people hold, not as consumer goods and not as investments and as capital goods, as money, as liquid wealth, things that they hold so that they can spend later.

如果你计算实物货币、支票账户、储蓄账户和政府债券（我也将它们计入），再加上黄金，这个总额大约是30万亿美元。

And that's about $300,000,000,000,000 if you count physical money, checking accounts, savings accounts, and government bonds, which I would count as well, and gold, that's about $300,000,000,000,000.

所以比特币目前价值2万亿美元。

So Bitcoin is already at 2,000,000,000,000.

因此，它还不到总可服务市场的1%。

So it's less than 1% of the total addressable market.

但如果它达到50%、70%，那就不一样了。

But if it's at 50%, if it's at 70%, then it's one.

然后，人们怎么想都不重要了。

And then it doesn't matter what people think.

所以比特币会从当前水平上涨100倍。

So Bitcoin goes up a 100X from where it is right now.

如果我们处于900万美元或500万美元左右，比特币将成为世界上最大的货币资产。

If we're at $9,000,000 or $5,000,000 or something like that, Bitcoin is the biggest monetary asset in the world.

比特币中的现金余额将超过其他所有资产。

The cash balances in Bitcoin exceed everything else.

比特币就是世界的货币。

Bitcoin is the world's money.

就这样。

That's it.

游戏结束了。

It's game over.

这仅仅关乎价格。

And that's just about the price.

所以我们越推高价格，比特币就越成功。

So the harder we pump the price, the more Bitcoin is winning.

我呢，你知道，有人写了一本书，对比特币如此理性地分析，却听起来像个狂热的散户在为价格欢呼，这冒犯了一些人，但归根结底，事实就是如此。

I and, you know, it's it's it offends people that somebody could write a book and be so intellectual about Bitcoin and then just, sounds like a total moon boy cheering on the price, but that's ultimately what it is.

比特币是一种价格技术。

Bitcoin is a price technology.

这完全关乎那个数字，因为这个数字越高，比特币中的现金余额就越大，比特币作为货币就越成功。

It's it's it's really all about that number because the higher that number goes, the larger the size of cash balances in Bitcoin, the more successful Bitcoin is as money.

你越能把它当作货币使用，储存在其中的财富就越多，政府通胀所导致的财富贬值就越少。

And the more you are able to use it as money, the more wealth is stored in it, and the less wealth is being devalued through government inflation.

所以我们需要把全世界的财富都转移到比特币中，才能真正消灭法币。

So we need to move all the world's wealth into Bitcoin in order to really kill Fiat.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这是实现这一目标漫长而痛苦的方式。

That's the long, painful way of doing this.

最初，当我刚接触比特币时，我认为很多人刚接触比特币时，都会觉得既然弄懂比特币和理解它的过程如此令人震撼，那大家自然会明白。

Initially, when I first got into Bitcoin, I think a lot of people when they first get into Bitcoin, they imagine that because, you know, figuring out Bitcoin and understanding the process is so mind blowing that you imagine, alright.

于是每个人都将放弃法币，全部转向比特币，比特币会在一夜之间暴涨，明天就达到一百万美元。

Now everybody's gonna get this and everybody's gonna dump their fiat and everybody's gonna go into Bitcoin and Bitcoin is gonna moon overnight, you know, million dollars of Bitcoin tomorrow.

但随着时间推移，你才会意识到，人们实际上比你想象的要愚钝得多。

But then over time, you realize people are a lot stupider than you give them credit for.

所以这个过程会漫长得多，他们必须先变得更穷，才能真正理解并接受它，我们将走一条漫长、曲折而丑陋的道路，最终实现比特币主导现金余额的世界。

So it's gonna take a lot longer, and they're gonna need to get poorer before they figure it out and understand it, and we're gonna take the long, scenic, ugly road toward a world where Bitcoin dominates cash balances.

所以，不幸的是，这还需要很长时间，这令人遗憾，因为世界确实需要摆脱法币，但你知道，罗马不是一天建成的。

So it's gonna be a while, unfortunately, which is sad because the world needs to get rid of fiat, but, you know, Rome was not built in a day.

那么，当我们展望如何实现所有现金余额中50%被比特币占据时，比特币是如何做到的呢？

So when we look at getting to 50% of all cash balances, how does Bitcoin do that?

在大部分过程中，它是作为价值储存手段发挥作用的吗？

Is it as a store of value for most of the way?

或者，你认为比特币什么时候会真正成为人们日常频繁使用的交易媒介？

Or like, when do you think Bitcoin becomes an actual medium of exchange that people use very regularly?

我会尽量多用比特币。

Like, I try and use Bitcoin as much as I can.

我刚用比特币从你这儿买了这本书。

I just bought this book off you with Bitcoin.

但这个转变是怎么发生的呢？

But, like, how how does that transition happen?

是的。

Yeah.

这个转变是通过不断增加现金余额实现的。

It happens through, again, increasing cash balances.

目前，正如我所说，全球的现金余额中不到1%是比特币。

Currently, as I said, you know, about, less than 1% of the world's cash balances are in Bitcoin.

所以当你买东西时，无论你购买的东西在交易另一端是什么，或者当你出售东西时，对方在全球的预期现金余额大约只有1%。

So when you're buying something, whatever the thing you're buying on the other side of that purchase, or when you're selling something on the other side, the expected size of that other person's cash balance globally is about 1%.

嗯。

Mhmm.

所以你日常打交道的普通人只有1%的比特币。

So the average person you deal with has 1% Bitcoin.

而1%的比特币本质上并不是现金余额。

And 1% Bitcoin is essentially not a cash balance.

这几乎可以忽略不计。

It's almost a rounding error.

这几乎就像一种投资头寸。

It's almost like an investment position.

所以如果你持有1%的比特币，你不会用比特币进行日常交易。

So if you are holding 1% Bitcoin, you're not going to be conducting daily transactions in Bitcoin.

你会用你大量持有的那种货币进行日常交易。

You're going to be conducting daily transactions in the thing that you are holding off in significant quantities.

如果你希望将1%的资产配置到比特币，那么当你用比特币买卖东西时，你的比例会迅速上升或下降。

If you want the 1% portfolio allocation to Bitcoin, then if you're buying and selling things with Bitcoin, you're going to go up or down very quickly.

你可能会迅速归零，也可能会上升到5%。

You're gonna go to zero or you might go to 5% Mhmm.

如果你这么做的活。

If you're doing that.

所以，如果你的目标是持有少量比特币，那么你就不能真的用它来交易。

So if your if if your intention is to have a small position in Bitcoin, then you can't really trade with it.

你交易的是你大量持有的东西，也就是你大量持有的现金。

You trade with the thing that you have in abundance, the cash that you hold in abundance.

这才是你频繁买卖的东西，这才是你将要使用的货币。

That's the one that you buy and sell extensively, and that's the one that is going to that's the one that's going to be the money that you're going to be using.

所以目前，全球范围内，绝大多数现金余额都是美元或以美元计价的货币，即由美元支持的货币，占绝大多数。

So currently, around the world, about the the majority of the world's cash balances are in dollars or in dollar denominated currencies, currencies that are backed by dollars, the vast majority.

因此，当你与他人进行交易时，你会使用美元，因为事实就是这样。

So when you're going to be conducting trade with somebody, you're going to be conducting it in a dollar because that's the case.

在比特币世界中，比如我的网站就是一个很好的例子。

Now in the Bitcoin world, it's for instance, my website is a good example.

我的投资组合中比特币所占比例远超过1%。

I I have a lot more than 1% of my portfolio in Bitcoin.

嗯。

Mhmm.

所以比特币真的是我的现金余额。

So Bitcoin really is my cash balance.

我很乐意用比特币进行买卖。

I'm very happy to be buying and selling with Bitcoin.

如果我能用比特币购买一切，对我来说就不是问题了，因为我的现金余额并不是比特币。

And if I could buy everything with Bitcoin, I wouldn't it wouldn't be a problem for me because my cash balance isn't Bitcoin.

所以，无论我是用比特币还是法币消费，实际上都是在从比特币中支出，因为在我心中，一切最终都是以比特币计价的。

So I'm spending effectively from Bitcoin, whether I'm spending Bitcoin or Fiat, because everything is essentially ultimately denominated in Bitcoin in my mind.

现金余额，是的。

The cash balance Yeah.

在比特币中。

Is in Bitcoin.

所以我就是这样。

So I'm like that.

我的许多读者、购买我课程和书籍的人，很多都是比特币爱好者。

And then a lot of my readers and the people who buy my courses and my books on my website, a lot of them are Bitcoiners.

所以他们也持有大量以比特币计价的现金余额。

So they also have significant cash balances in Bitcoin.

因此，他们也很可能在使用和消费他们的比特币。

So they're also likely to be sending spending their Bitcoin.

这就是为什么我的网站目前大约有三分之一，甚至接近一半的交易量是通过比特币完成的。

That's why my website does about one third, maybe close to one half of the volume these days in Bitcoin.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我也为使用比特币支付提供折扣，因为我更偏好比特币。

And I also offer a discount on Bitcoin because I prefer Bitcoin.

所以，在这种情况下，当你看到那些持有大量比特币现金余额的人时，我们很可能会用比特币进行交易。

So in this situation, when you are you're seeing people who have significant cash balances in Bitcoin, it's highly likely that we'll trade in Bitcoin.

这就是为什么很多人用比特币购买我的书籍。

That's why a lot of people buy my books with Bitcoin.

所以这就是世界上其他人需要做的事情。

So that's what the rest of the world needs to do.

你知道的。

You know?

当世界上其他人的比特币现金余额达到我和我的读者目前持有的比特币水平时，你就会看到更多的比特币交易。

When the rest of the world has more cash balances in Bitcoin, when the rest of the world's cash balances in Bitcoin are similar to the cash balances of me and my readers currently in Bitcoin, then you're going to see a lot more trade in Bitcoin.

而价格会自然解决这个问题，因为对于任何持有1%比特币配置的人来说，这很快就会变成5%、10%、15%的配置，

And price kinda fixes that because for anyone who has a 1% allocation to Bitcoin, that's soon gonna become five, ten, 15% allocation,

而这会改变整个格局。

and that changes the dynamic.

没错。

Exactly.

所以，那些不持有比特币的人可以选择轻松的方式：直接抛售他们的山寨币，转投比特币，赚取大量比特币，从此幸福生活；或者选择艰难的方式：继续持有山寨币，眼睁睁看着它们归零，最后才用极少的比特币买入，然后一辈子穷困潦倒。

So the no coiners can do this the easy way where they just dump their shitcoins and get into Bitcoin and make a lot of Bitcoin and live happily ever after, or they can do it the hard way where they keep their shitcoins, their shitcoins go to zero, and then eventually they get into Bitcoin with very few Bitcoins and have fun staying poor.

是的。

Yeah.

我想稍微回溯一下你之前提到的一点，那就是七十年代是一个非常艰难的时期，通货膨胀率极高。

And I wanna just go back a little bit to something you said earlier, which was the seventies being like a really tough period, really high inflation.

似乎世界各国的央行正在意识到法定货币的一些不稳定性。

It seems like central banks and countries around the world are waking up to some of the instability in fiat currency.

比如我们看到中国正在大量增持黄金。

Like we see China stacking loads more gold.

我肯定俄罗斯也是。

I'm sure Russia is.

而且也许，事实上，当美国制裁俄罗斯时，这看似是一个情绪化的决定，而非理性的决定，这种举动让所有人都震惊了。

And and maybe, in fact, when The US sanctioned Russia, which seemed like a very emotional decision, not a very rational decision, like, was kind of the shock that everyone heard.

你认为这些其他央行、世界的两极分化、金砖国家货币的崛起，是否标志着人们开始意识到：我们或许不该把所有资产都放在美元上？

Do you think that these other central banks, the polarization of the world, the rise of BRICS currencies, this is the start of people realizing maybe we shouldn't have everything in the US dollar?

现在让我们听一段来自赞助商的简短广告。

Now for a quick word from our sponsors.

《比特币标准》播客由thesafehouse.com赞助，这是我的独立出版社和书店，出售高品质布面精装版的最佳比特币书籍，经久耐用，可传承数代。

The Bitcoin Standard podcast is brought to you by thesafehouse.com, my independent publisher and bookshop, selling the best Bitcoin books in high quality cloth hardcovers built to last for generations.

如今大多数书籍都很脆弱，纸张单薄，很快就会散架，而我不希望我的书也是如此，因此我专门设立了The Safe House，为你提供精美、持久的布面精装书籍，可以自豪地传给后代。

Most books these days are pretty fiat, they are flimsy and they fall apart quickly, and I did not want that for my books, so I set up the safe house especially to provide you with beautiful, long lasting classic cloth hardcovers you can proudly pass down for generations.

你可以购买我的三本书：《比特币标准》《法定货币标准》和《经济学原理》，还可以购买林恩·奥尔登的《破碎的货币》、帕克·刘易斯的《渐进，然后突然》以及马修·利夏克的《法定货币食品》，我为后者贡献了几章内容。

You can get copies of my three books, The Bitcoin Standard, The Fiat Standard, and Principles of Economics, and you can also get copies of Lynn Alden's Broken Money, Parker Lewis's Gradually, Then Suddenly, and Matthew Lishiak's Fiat Food, to which I contributed a few chapters.

我们现在提供批量折扣，你可以为自己和

We now offer bulk discounts so you can buy books for yourself and for

你想要分享给的朋友和家人购买书籍

the friends and family you'd

了解比特币。

like to learn about Bitcoin.

购买任意两本书只需50美元，购买五本或以上每本仅20美元，购买超过50本则每本仅15美元。

Buy any two books for $50 any five books or more for $20 per book and for more than 50 books it's only $15 per book.

前往thesafehouse.com（注意：原文有拼写错误，应为thesafehouse.com）获取所有这些高品质布面精装书籍，全球配送，并使用比特币支付可享受10%折扣。

Go to the safehouse.com the saifhouse.com where you can get all of these books in high quality cloth hardcovers delivered worldwide and get 10% off for paying with bitcoin.

本播客还由The Bitcoin Way赞助，他们是你的专业比特币IT团队，为你提供个性化、安全且全面的解决方案，助力你比特币之旅的每一步。

This podcast is also brought to you by The Bitcoin Way, your professional Bitcoin IT team offering you personalized, secure, and comprehensive solutions for every step along your Bitcoin journey.

The Bitcoin Way 提供实时礼宾服务，帮助您处理比特币冷存储、运行您的节点、隐私最佳实践、继承规划、企业战略和多重签名解决方案。

The Bitcoin Way offers live concierge service to guide you with your Bitcoin cold storage, running your node, privacy best practices, inheritance planning, corporate strategy, and multisig solutions.

他们不会接触您的币，而是引导您完成获取和安全存储币的全过程。

They don't touch your coins, they guide you through the process of acquiring your coins and securing them.

如果您希望让您的设置更安全、更可靠，请预约咨询，看看他们有什么建议。

If you would like to make your setup safer and more reliable, book a consult with them and see what they have to suggest.

如果您想送给别人比特币作为礼物，可以为他们选择这项专业服务，确保他们从一开始就清楚如何管理自己的币，避免丢失。

If you want to give someone the gift of Bitcoin, get them this professional service that will ensure they start off knowing exactly how to manage their coins and not lose them.

前往 thebitcoinway.com，更自信地开始使用比特币。

Go to thebitcoinway.com and start bitcoining more confidently.

我觉得是的。

I think so.

我认为是这样的，我的意思是，自1990年代以来，人们就一直在说这个问题，甚至在1990年代，只有极少数声音在谈论美元及其问题。

I think it's, I mean people have been saying this for a very long time since the 1990s is even in the 1990s it was very fringe few voices saying, know, the dollar and the problem of the dollar.

到了2000年代，金融危机之后，这种声音变得越来越多。

And then in the 2000s after the financial crisis, that grew more and more.

而且，你知道，中国对美元问题、美元通胀以及美元超发的意识增强了。

And, you know, the Chinese awareness of the problem of the dollar and the inflation of the dollar and all of the dollar printing increased.

显然，你知道，中国在2008年时持有约一万亿美元的美国国债。

And clearly, you know, the Chinese, in 2008, they had about a trillion dollars in treasuries.

现在他们大约持有七千亿或八千亿美元。

Now they have about, I think, 700,000,000,000 or 800,000,000,000.

所以十八年后，他们的持有量稍微减少了一些。

So eighteen years later, they've got a little bit less.

但考虑到实际贬值，实际价值要低得多。

But when you factor in the real devaluation, it's significantly less.

是的。

Yeah.

尤其是过去十年中美之间贸易量大幅增加的情况下。

Especially with the increased trade that's happened with China and The US over the last decade.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

所以中国富裕多了，而美元贬值了。

So China's a lot richer, and the dollar's worth less.

因此，当你把这两点结合起来看，中国实际上已经大幅脱离了对美国国债的依赖。

And so when you factor those two things in, China's effectively decoupled a lot from treasuries.

但在过去十五年里，他们主要不是持有国债，而是转向了投资资产，特别是在非洲和拉丁美洲的第三世界国家投资，建设海港和基础设施等。

But they moved over the past fifteen years primarily instead of holding treasuries, they were moving toward holding investment assets, and they were particularly investing in the third world in Africa and Latin America, building seaports and infrastructure and so on.

这是一种将多余储蓄进行配置的方式，因为很难找到存放储蓄的地方——你用储蓄购买的任何东西，都会推高价格，从而使其失去吸引力。

And that was a way for them to channel all these extra savings because it's difficult to find a place to put savings because everything that you buy with your savings, you pump the price up to stop it from being attractive.

但现在我认为，他们正在增加黄金购买。

But now I think they are stepping up their gold purchases.

而且正如你所说，俄罗斯储备被冻结确实是一个巨大的警钟，因为它清楚地向所有人表明，你永远无法预知美国何时会把你踢出局。

And I think, really, as you said, you know, the the confiscation of the Russian reserves was a huge wake up call because it just made it very clear to anybody that you never know when the Americans are going to kick you out.

有趣的是，即使在那之前，俄罗斯也并未试图退出美元体系。

And it's quite interesting that, you know, even before that, that the Russians had not sought to exit the dollar system.

我的意思是，这仅仅表明

I mean, it just shows

他们肯定从未预料到这一点。

They must never have seen that coming.

也许吧，或者对他们来说，这根本就是不可想象的。

Maybe or maybe it was just, I mean, unthinkable for them.

我们该如何在没有它的情况下维持下去？

How do how do we manage without this?

我不知道。

I don't know.

但值得注意的是，尽管一直有人谈论要摆脱美国的影响力，俄罗斯甚至在入侵乌克兰时都没有动用其储备资产。

But, I think it's very telling that for all the talk about people wanting to break out of The US orbit, the Russians had not even taken their reserves out even when they invaded Ukraine.

所以我认为越来越多

So I think more and more

各国，然后，

of the countries, and then,

你知道，回顾过去一年围绕关税的这场闹剧，整个过程简直荒谬至极、严重误判、愚蠢透顶，明显是有人在ChatGPT上花了十五分钟随便搞出来的。

you know, remember with this entire shit show around the tariffs over the last year, it was just so hilarious and so misguided and so idiotic in the way that it was conducted and so completely and utterly clueless, clearly done over chat GPT over fifteen minutes.

当前的美国政府充满了反复无常。

That there's a capriciousness to the current US government.

你可以看出来，这只是一个忙得不可开交的特朗普，他根本觉得没必要深入了解事情的细节。

And you could tell, you know, it's just a very busy Donald Trump who just thinks that he doesn't need to get into the details of things.

所以，他认为一切都只是谈判，只是在虚张声势、先开条件而已，但事实证明这完全是一场极其愚蠢的闹剧。

So, you know, he he thinks it's all a negotiation and you're just bluffing and you're calling the first terms and and that's just not it's turned out to be an extremely stupid stunt.

你知道，他们最终和中国达成协议，基本上把一切恢复到特朗普那场愚蠢闹剧之前的状态。

You know, they they went and signed with the Chinese basically to take things back as they were before Trump's stupid stunt.

而这，就是它所达成的全部成果。

And that's all that it's achieved.

我认为他严重高估了自己对中国施加的筹码。

I think he vastly overestimated his leverage on China.

他严重高估了自己能让中国做出多少让步，而实际上，中国的处境比他好得多，也强大得多。

He vastly overestimated how much he could get them to compromise, and they are in a much better and much stronger position than him.

但无论如何，这一切都表明，无论是因为无能、反复无常、任性，还是纯粹的邪恶，美国都不是你可以依赖的对象。

But in any case, all of that just shows that really whether through incompetence, erraticness, capriciousness, or just downright plain evil, The US is not something you wanna count on.

我认为世界上许多国家现在正逐渐意识到这一点。

I think a lot of the world is coming to that realization now.

而且你知道，美国以极大的热情资助战争，当内塔尼亚胡出现时，美国政府那些疯狂的疯子们为他鼓掌，像妓女一样跳来跳去，表演他们被付钱来做的把戏。

And, you know, also, the wars are really the gusto with which America funds its wars and the way in which the the the insane lunatics at the US government clap for Netanyahu, for instance, when he shows up and they all jump like prostitutes to do the tricks that they're paid to do.

这对地球上绝大多数人来说都极其可恶，因为绝大多数人并不以大规模屠杀为乐，也不愿通过掠夺世界其他地区来资助大规模屠杀。

It's really disgusting for the vast majority of the planet because the vast majority of the planet don't take pleasure in mass murder and in robbing the rest of the planet in order to finance mass murder.

所以，是的，我认为世界上许多地方正在觉醒，认识到这一点。

So, yeah, I think a lot of the world is waking up to that.

我认为，我们可能会看到更多黄金被买入。

And I think, you know, we could see more pumping in gold.

黄金到目前为止已经经历了惊人的上涨。

The gold's had an incredible run so far.

我们可能会看到更多这样的趋势。

I we we could see more.

我们可能会看到个人层面和政府层面更多的购买行为。

We could see more purchases on an individual level, on a governmental level.

我认为这种情况可能会持续下去。

I think we could see it continuing.

我对黄金的成功持怀疑态度，因为它会被集中控制。

I do have my skepticism about the success of gold because it will be centralized.

政府可以控制它。

Governments can control it.

他们可以阻止它。

They can stop it.

但问题是，特别是中国和俄罗斯，这些政府能否意识到，转向金本位制的好处大于失去通胀特权的弊端？

But, I mean, the question is, can the Chinese and the Russians in particular, can these governments figure out that the advantages of moving on to a gold standard outweigh the drawbacks of losing their inflationary prerogative?

这才是关键问题。

That is the question.

这是一个难题，因为我认为掌管中国政府和俄罗斯政府的人一直都在使用印钞机。

And it's a difficult one because I think the people who run the Chinese and the Russian government, they've had a money printer which they use.

但公平地说，他们对印钞机的依赖不如美国那么大，因为他们无法将通胀输出出去，但他们仍然喜欢自己的印钞机。

And to be fair, they're not as dependent on their money printer as The US is because they can't export their inflation, but still they like their money printers.

所以问题是，他们对印钞机的喜爱是否足以让他们放弃一个机会——即，本质上削弱美国，或者不一定是削弱美国，而是摆脱美国的轨道，因为他们想保留自己的印钞机？还是他们会决定：算了？

So the question is, do they like the money printer enough that they would forego the opportunity to, essentially hurt The US or, not not necessarily hurt The US, just, get out of The US orbit because they wanna keep their money printer, or will they decide, you know what?

不。

No.

我们不需要印钞机。

We don't need the money printer.

我们首先需要摆脱美国的轨道。

We need to get out of The US orbit first.

因为中国保持着巨大的贸易顺差，并且是一个非常富裕的国家，他们是否像美国那样需要通货膨胀？

Because China runs such a trade surplus and they're a very wealthy nation, do they need inflation in the same way that The US does?

不。

No.

他们不需要。

They don't.

事实上，我认为如果观察汇率，人民币长期来看对美元几乎保持稳定。

And in fact, I think it's actually quite remarkable that if you look at the exchange rate, the Chinese Yuan is practically flat against the dollar long term.

人民币并未固定汇率，但他们很好地维持了人民币的价值，没有大幅贬值。

It's not pegged, but they've done a pretty good job of maintaining the value of the Yuan and not devaluing it too much.

因此，我认为他们并没有从通货膨胀中获得巨大好处。

So therefore, I don't think they benefit enormously from inflation.

我认为中国政府不像美国政府那样依赖通货膨胀，因为中国政府无法将通胀输出出去。

I don't think the Chinese government is relying on inflation as much as the US government does because the Chinese government can't export its inflation.

所以，如果中国实行通胀政策，只会导致本币贬值，而人民币并非国际货币。

So if it engages in inflation, it just devalues its currency, which is not an international currency.

它的货币相对于美元贬值。

Its currency drops against the dollar.

但他们持有的美元资产也在随美元贬值而贬值，其国债也在缩水。

But they hold dollar assets that are devaluing as the dollar is devaluing, their treasuries are devaluing.

因此，从某种意义上说，他们不是在输出通胀，而是在进口通胀。

And so therefore, in a sense, they are exporting they they are importing inflation.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他们通过持有美国债券来为美国融资，但并未从通胀中获益。

They are financing The US by holding on to The US's bond bags, but they're not benefiting from inflation.

另一个非常有趣的现象是，中国政府的债务水平实际上非常低。

And another very interesting fact is the Chinese central government actually has very low levels of debt.

中国政府，即中央政府，支出的金额不如美国中央政府那么多。

And the Chinese government the central government doesn't spend as much money as the US central government.

中国实际上比美国政治上更加分权。

China is actually a lot more politically decentralized than The US.

换句话说，大部分政府支出都发生在地方层面。

In other words, most government spending happens at the local level.

因此，地方政府并没有印钞机。

So the local governments don't have a money printer.

由于不能随意印钞，他们更加财政自律，债务也少得多。

They're a lot more fiscally responsible because they can't just print, and they have a lot less debt.

抱歉。

Sorry.

联邦政府的债务少得多。

The federal government has a lot less debt.

但如果你把美国的联邦和州债务与中国的地方和省级债务加总起来，美国的负债要多得多。

But if you add the federal and state debt in The US versus the national and provincial debt in China, The US is a lot more indebted.

所以我认为，从基本面来看，中国的处境要强劲得多，甚至不需要美国作为贸易伙伴。

So I think in terms of fundamentals, China is just in a much stronger position and they don't need The US as a trade partner even.

美国在贸易中约占2.8%。

The US is about 2.8% of trade.

我认为

I think

它已经那么久了。

it's that old.

我之前没意识到这一点

I didn't realize it

那么低。

was that low.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

中国的经济就是，嗯。

The Chinese, economy is just yeah.

大多数人仍然被困在西方的思维里。

Most people are still stuck in in the West.

人们仍然认为中国是上世纪九十年代那个廉价的世界工厂。

People are still stuck of thinking of China as if it's still the cheap workshop of the world in the nineteen nineties.

但其实不是。

And it's not.

它是世界超级大国。

It's the world's superpower.

它是世界工业和经济超级大国。

It's the world's industrial and economic superpower.

而且它处于一个独树一帜的层级。

And it's on in a league of its own.

现在中国已经真正成为第一世界了。

It's really there's China as the first world now.

它是全球的工业中心。

It's the industrial epicenter of the world.

他们生产了大约50%的各类产品，比如钢铁、汽车、电子产品等等。

They produce pretty much around 50% of pretty much everything, you know, steel, cars, electronics, whatever it is.

中国占全球总产量的约50%，其余所有国家加起来才占另外50%。

China is somewhere in the range of 50% of all the world's production, and the rest of the world combined is in the range of 50%.

因此，他们远远领先于其他所有人，而且并不需要任何人。

So they are far, far ahead of everybody else, and they don't need anybody else.

美国市场对他们来说是锦上添花，但并非必不可少。

The US market is a nice to have for them, but it's not an essential.

只有2.8%。

It's only 2.8%.

我的意思是，他们所有的出口，我认为对世界其他地区的出口正在增加。

I mean, it's all of their exports, I think, the the exports to the rest of the world are increasing.

此时，我认为东南亚是中国最大的贸易伙伴。

At this point, I think Southeast Asia is the biggest trading partner for China.

比美国还大。

It's bigger than The US.

所以只是

So Just a

人口多得多。

lot more people.

很多

A lot

人口更多，没美国那么富裕，但离中国很近。

more people, not quite as rich as The US, but they're very close to China.

所以运到那里更便宜。

So it's cheaper to ship there.

而且，你知道，美国只有3亿人口。

And, you know, so The US is just, it's only 300,000,000 people.

地球上共有80亿人。

There are 8,000,000,000 people on earth.

越来越明显的是，中国人正越来越多地考虑减少对美国的依赖，因为美国不是一个稳定的国家。

And it's entirely it's entirely becoming clear that the Chinese are thinking more and more about not relying on The US because it's not a stable country.

是的。

Yeah.

这很有趣，因为如果中国和俄罗斯，或者像大多数国家一样的金砖国家，某种程度上都在考虑比特币，我会非常惊讶。

It's interesting because I would be very shocked if China and Russia or the BRICS nations, like most of the world, I think, is thinking about Bitcoin in some degree.

但美国显然在唐纳德·特朗普的领导下，开始更认真地谈论比特币。

But The US obviously has stepped in under Donald Trump and started talking about Bitcoin far more seriously.

你认为这是因为美国看到了中国带来的风险吗？

Do you think that's because they see this risk of China?

不。

No.

我不

I don't

这么认为。

think so.

我的真实看法是，我认为特朗普只是发现他能从这件事中赚钱，于是编造理由来为债务辩护。

My honest opinion is that I think it's just Trump figured out that he could make money from this thing, and he's retrofitting explanations to try and justify the debt.

这对美元有好处，能减轻美元的压力。

It's good for the dollars, taking pressure from the dollar.

这会有帮助的。

It's going to help.

他只是从中赚钱，并为此找各种合理化的借口。

It's he's just making money from it, and he's coming up with the rationalizations for it.

我不认为是这样，因为我认为他并不想摆脱美元。

I don't think that that is the case because I don't think, you know, he's not looking to move away from the dollar.

有很多人总是试图为特朗普的任何愚蠢行为辩护，说这其实是一场复杂精妙的五维象棋博弈。

And there are a lot of people that try and with Trump, whatever stupid thing he does, there are always people that wanna tell you that this is complicated, sophisticated five d chess.

我们在关税问题上就看到了这种情况。

And we saw that with the tariffs.

每天，他的所有粉丝都坚信，无论他做什么，都是天才之举，而当他做出相反的举动时，他们也一样这么认为。

You know, every day, he all of his fans were convinced that he was being a genius, whatever he does when he does something and then when he does the opposite.

所以他对中国加征了关税。

So he puts the tariffs on China.

哇。

Wow.

真是天才的决策。

What a genius move.

然后他又取消了关税。

Then he removes the tariff.

哦，天哪。

Oh, wow.

真是天才之举。

What a genius move.

他吓到了他们，但现在他取消了关税。

He scared them, but now he moved the tariff.

然后他又把关税加回去。

Then he puts them back on again.

哦，哇。

Oh, wow.

天才。

Genius.

现在他正在施加压力。

Now he's putting the pressure.

你知道，这些都只是借口。

And, you know, this is just these rationalizations.

如果我们征收关税，我们就将实现再工业化。

If we put the tariffs, then we're going to reindustrialize.

如果我们取消关税，就会开放市场准入，实现自由贸易。

If we remove the tariffs, then we're going to open access to the markets and we're gonna get free trade.

所以你知道，自由贸易和工业化是完全相反的目标，但他却同时在做这两件事。

So, you know, he free trade or industrialization, exact opposite goals, but he's doing both.

无论他选择哪一条，他都会觉得自己是对的。

Whichever one he chooses is going to be right about it.

这纯粹是政治粉丝心态。

This is just basic politics fanboyism.

我觉得他通过自己的山寨币和比特币项目已经赚了数十亿美元，而且他喜欢赚这么多钱。

I think he's just made billions of dollars from his shitcoin and bitcoin ventures, and he likes making billions of dollars.

他是个商人。

He's a businessman.

我认为这并没有比这更复杂了。

I don't think it's more sophisticated than that.

所以你觉得在他任期结束时，美国在比特币方面不会发生任何有趣的事？

So you think by the end of his term, nothing interesting will happen out of The US with Bitcoin?

是的，大概吧。

Yeah, probably.

我认为推动真正取得进展的势头已经消失了。

I think the momentum behind getting something serious done, I think, is gone.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为在这一点上，这可能在政治上变得代价高昂。

And I think at this point, it's probably becoming politically, expensive.

我认为，科技精英和加密精英赚了很多钱，特朗普也赚了很多钱，再加上国内的经济问题，这些因素结合在一起，将在中期选举时形成一种有毒的混合局面。

I think, you know, the the combination of tech bros and crypto bros making a lot of money, Trump making a lot of money, and, the economic problems in the country combined together, I think, is going to make for a toxic mix when the election comes along in the midterms.

我认为加密货币将成为民主党关注的重点。

And I think crypto is going to be something that the Democrats are going to focus on.

你知道的？

You know?

是的。

Yeah.

我确信这是真的。

I'm sure that's true.

尤其是特朗普和梅拉尼娅币，这些东西都太有毒了。

Especially, like, the Trump and Melania coin, all that stuff is just, like, so toxic.

是的。

Yeah.

有趣的是，在美国做出这一宣布之前，我认为比特币圈普遍认为这一运动会在边缘地带发生，比如萨尔瓦多、不丹这样的国家。

The interesting thing is, like, before The US made this announcement, I think the general consensus amongst Bitcoiners was this movement was going to happen at the fringes, the El Salvador's of the world, the Bhutan's of the world.

所以你认为这仍然是真的吗？美国的举动其实只是一个烟幕弹？

So do you think that's actually still true and The US was kind of a red herring in this?

是的，我想是这样。

Yeah, I guess so.

我的意思是，如果我回顾过去十年我对比特币的看法，我会说，过去几年里，我惊讶地见证了越来越多的企业和政府采用比特币，比如萨尔瓦多、不丹、MicroStrategy、BlackRock、ETF等等。

I mean, if I were to look at how I thought about Bitcoin over the past ten years or so, I'd say I was surprised that over the last few years, witnessed a lot more corporate and government adoption, El Salvador, Bhutan, MicroStrategy, BlackRock, ETFs, all of those things.

如果在2018年我写《比特币标准》时你问我比特币会如何发展，我会想象到2025年，会有更多普通的普通人拥有钱包，但我们仍然不会有ETF，不会有MicroStrategy，也不会有萨尔瓦多。

I in my mind, if you asked me in 2018 when I wrote the Bitcoin standard, how it would play out, I would have imagined that by 2025, we'd have more random normal average Joes with wallets and we'd still not have ETFs and we'd not have micro strategy and we wouldn't have El Salvador.

我认为这会在更多人参与之后才发生。

And I think that would come later after more people did it.

但过去几年，我们看到了这种趋势。

But, you know, the last few years, we saw that trend.

但我认为，美国政府介入这件事，不会持久。

But I think, yeah, the the government the the US government getting in, don't think is going to stick.

事实上，如果民主党上台，他们可能会特意抛售他们持有的比特币。

I think, in fact, if the Democrats get in, they may make it a point to sell the coins that they have.

因为我能预见这会成为他们在选举中的一个热门议题。

Because I can see it becoming a popular point, for them in the election.

嗯。

Mhmm.

而且我觉得，这简直是绝佳的营销手段。

And I can see it, it it it's just such great marketing.

你知道吗？

You know?

你买不起自己的房子。

You can't afford your home.

你付不起这个，但特朗普和他的科技团队却从他们的山寨币投资中大获成功，把它们都买下了。

You can't afford this, but Trump and his tech pros have done great from their shitcoin investments, bought them out.

我认为，这简直是无可匹敌的营销。

It's just unbeatable marketing, I think.

嗯。

Yeah.

所以我不认为这能持久。

So I don't think that's going to stick.

我不认为美国在这方面的政策能持久。

I don't think The US policy on this is going to stick.

而且我觉得，我之前和非洲比特币公司聊过，现在我已经成了他们的顾问。

And I think, you know, I I was talking to the Africa Bitcoin Corporation, and I've just become an adviser for them.

他们一直告诉我，在南非，他们正见证着草根层面的广泛采用。

And they keep telling me about how in South Africa, they're really witnessing grassroots adoption.

很多人直接跳过了传统的法币支付技术，直接接受比特币。

A lot of people have just skipped on the entire fiat payments technology and just accept Bitcoin.

他们有一部手机。

They have a phone.

他们下载一个比特币钱包，并用这些钱包进行日常交易。

They download a Bitcoin wallet, and they use, these wallets for day to day transactions.

据说这在南非非常流行。

It's pretty popular apparently in South Africa.

这重新点燃了我的希望，让我们或许能看到越来越多的草根采用。

So this kind of reinvigorated my hope that we'll maybe see more and more grassroots adoption.

而且，希望美国政府继续搞他们的山寨币，而把比特币留给世界其他地方。

And, you know, hopefully, the US government continues to do its, shitcoin things and leaves the Bitcoin for the rest of world.

是的。

Yeah.

如果他们卖出比特币，那只是让更多的比特币落到真正的比特币支持者手中。

Well, if they sell the Bitcoin, it's just more Bitcoin in the hands of actual Bitcoiners.

但我来这儿之前刚去过肯尼亚。

But I was just in Kenya before I came here.

我认为肯尼亚可能是世界上最适合比特币用户的地方。

And I think it might be the best country in the world to be a Bitcoiner.

真的吗？

Oh, really?

我去了一趟基贝拉，那是肯尼亚最大的贫民窟。

So I went to Kibera, which is the largest slum in Kenya.

那里估计有70万到90万人居住。

There's like estimate 700 to 900,000 people live there.

地方非常大。

It's huge.

那里有一家叫Afrobit的公司，正在四处努力让商家接受比特币。

And there's Afrobit or a company that are going around just trying to onboard merchants to accept Bitcoin.

我认为他们已经在基贝拉一个相对集中的区域里吸引了超过65家商户。

And I think they have over 65 merchants all in like quite a concentrated zone in Kibera.

有趣的是，不只是比特币在使用它。

And the cool thing was it's not just Bitcoin is using it.

我总是对比特币的循环经济持一点怀疑态度，因为那只是比特币支付比特币。

Like, I'm always a bit skeptical of Bitcoin circular economies because it's just like Bitcoin is paying Bitcoin is.

但他们做了一件非常有趣的事：他们开始让一位从事垃圾收集业务的人用比特币支付。

But what they've done that was really interesting is they'd started paying one of the guys has a trash collection business.

他雇佣了25个人。

He employs 25 people.

他收到的报酬是比特币，然后用比特币支付所有员工的工资。

He's getting his payments in Bitcoin and then paying all his employees in Bitcoin.

现在，当地有65家商户可以接受比特币支付。

And now there's 65 merchants in the local area where they can go and pay.

所以，那些只是住在那里的普通人，其实并不关心比特币，却真的在使用比特币。

And so like real normal people who just live there, who aren't who don't really care about Bitcoin are actually using Bitcoin there.

此外，还有一个叫Tando的应用程序，界面看起来非常基础，但你可以使用它，因为他们那里用的是M-Pesa，也就是移动支付。

And then on top of that, there's an app called Tando, which is like this really basic looking app, but you can because they use M Pesa there, which is like mobile money.

在肯尼亚，你可以用比特币支付任何账单、任何商家，支付房租，或者任何其他费用。

You can pay any bill, any merchant, you can pay your rent, you can pay whatever it is in Kenya using Bitcoin.

你只需扫描二维码，用比特币付款，然后它会自动转换为M-Pesa并支付给对方。

So you just like scan a QR code and you'll pay Bitcoin and it's then just converted to M Pesa and pays the other person.

所以，你今天完全可以用比特币在肯尼亚生活，而且不会遇到任何问题。

So like you could live a 100% on Bitcoin in Kenya today and you would have zero problems.

这真的很酷。

It was really cool.

看到这样的场景，这才是真正的比特币。

Like seeing stuff like that, that's real Bitcoin.

所以

So

是的，我对这一点持看涨态度。

yeah, I'm bullish on that.

我们时间快用完了。

We're running out of time.

我知道你今天很忙。

I know you've got a busy day.

我觉得你签了很多书，手肯定很累，但我们能再回到金本位的话题吗？

I think you're gonna have a tight hand from signing a lot of books, but can we close out back on the gold standard?

当你展望第一次世界大战开始后的一百年，会是什么样子？

When you look ahead at the hundred years following the start of the first world war, what does it look like?

是乌托邦吗？

Is it utopia?

差不多。

Pretty much.

是的。

Yes.

没错。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这其实是一个思想实验。

I mean, you know, it's it's it's a thought experiment.

我试图推断我认为会带来积极影响的趋势，然后思考世界会是什么样子。

And I try and extrapolate the trends that I believe would be positive and then try and think about what the world would have looked like.

我认为这是一个非常有力的思想实验，因为它以一种我们平时不习惯的方式展现了这些观点。

And I think it's a it's a powerful thought experiment because it illustrates these things in a way that we're not really used to thinking of them.

所以，比如，这真是一个很好的例子。

So for instance, I guess this is a great example.

当我们谈论通货膨胀的影响时，大学里通常教授的观点是，你需要通货膨胀，因为这能激励人们消费和投资。

When we talk about the impact of inflation, the usual idea that is taught at universities is that you need inflation because that incentivizes people to spend and to invest.

如果没有通货膨胀，人们就会把钱囤着，经济活动就会停滞。

If you don't have inflation, people would just sit on the money, and then there wouldn't be economic activity.

这完全是胡说八道。

Which is nonsense.

当然，这完全是胡说八道，因为人们消费并不是因为他们的钱在贬值。

Which is nonsense, of course, because, you know, people consume not because their money is losing value.

他们消费是因为必须消费才能生存。

They consume because they need to consume to survive.

如果他们的钱没有贬值，他们会减少愚蠢的消费，更多地储蓄，这意味着我们拥有更多的资本。

And if their money wasn't losing value, they would consume less stupid nonsense and save more, and that means we have more capital.

嗯。

Mhmm.

因为更多的储蓄意味着更多的资本。

Because more saving means more capital.

这意味着我们可以将更多资本投入生产。

That means we could deploy more capital in production.

所以，如果你反其道而行之，相信这种宣传，那么增长是因为通货膨胀，通货膨胀越多，增长就越多，因为这激励了更多的消费和投资。

So if you take the opposite of that, you know, if you believe the propaganda, then growth happens because of inflation, and the more inflation we get, then we get more growth because that incentivizes more spending and more investment.

那么，显然，委内瑞拉是当今世界上最富有的国家。

So, clearly, Venezuela is the richest country in the world today.

对吧？

Right?

因为他们有很高的通货膨胀。

Because they have a lot of inflation.

嗯，不是的。

Well, no.

事实并非如此。

It doesn't.

这不对。

It's not true.

事实上，通货膨胀率较低的国家经济增长更快。

And in fact, the countries that have less inflation have more growth.

从历史上看，如果你的通货膨胀率越来越低，就会积累更多的资本、更多的储蓄、更多的投资和更高的生产率增长。

And historically, if you had less and less and less inflation, you'd have even more capital accumulation, more savings, more investment, more productivity growth.

所以，让我们退一步，不要相信这种说法，而是真正思考一下其含义。

So then let's step back and not believe that and then actually think about what the implication would be.

如果我们经历了一个零通货膨胀的世纪，那么资本就会越来越多地积累。

If we had a century in which we had no inflation, then you're accumulating more and more capital.

因此，你所拥有的资本存量在增长，资本的价值也在提升。

So the stock of capital that you have is growing, and the value of the capital is increasing.

因此，人们变得富裕，经济上更加安全，拥有大量持续增值的储蓄。

So people become wealthy, people become financially secure, people have significant savings that are constantly appreciating.

我的意思是，想想今天世界上每个家庭，过去四五代人都因通货膨胀而失去了财富。

I mean, just think every family in the world today, the last four or five generations have had wealth stolen from them through inflation.

想象一下，如果过去一百年里，世界上每个家庭在过去的五代人中，其财富每年都以大约1%到2%的速度积累和增值。

Imagine if every family in the world over the last five generations had had their wealth accumulate and grow in value at around one to 2% per year every year over the last one hundred years.

世界将会非常、非常不同。

The world would be very, very different.

人们会经济上安全。

People would be financially secure.

他们会存下相当于几年开支的储蓄，然后用超出这部分的金钱承担更多风险。

They'd have several years expenditures of savings saved up, and then they take a lot of risk with the money that they have beyond that.

所以你从出生开始就储蓄，收到金钱礼物，然后这些钱随着时间增值。

So you start saving when you're born, you get gifts in terms of money, and then they appreciate over time.

然后你小时候打工，成年后继续工作，持续持有储蓄，它们持续增值。

And then you work jobs as a kid and then you start working as an adult and you keep holding savings and they keep appreciating.

到了25岁的时候，你就能用现金买房了。

And then by the time that you're 25, you can buy your own house with cash.

房价也不会那么高，因为它们没有货币溢价。

And house prices aren't as high because there's not monetary premium on them.

没错。

Exactly.

房子不是银行账户。

Houses are not bank accounts.

所以房子只是消费品。

So houses are just consumer goods.

所以其中一个关键点是我花了很多时间思考这背后的经济学和相关数据。

So one of the key points, and I spent a lot of time thinking about the economics of this and the numbers of it.

我在书的结尾提出这一点，想象一下房价会发生什么变化。

And I conclude the book with this almost is to imagine what would have happened to the prices of houses.

大约在二十世纪初，我们看到一个持续数百年的趋势：房价相对于收入而言变得越来越便宜。

So around, the early twentieth century, we see that there was a centuries long trend of houses becoming more and more affordable in terms of income.

因此，英国的中位数房价相对于中位数工资而言持续下降。

So the median house in Britain and as a function of the median wage is constantly declining.

嗯。

Mhmm.

因为我们有了更多的机器，更高的生产力。

Because we have more machines, more productivity.

我们以更低的成本建造房屋，而且工作变得更有生产力。

We're making houses at a cheaper way, and work is becoming more productive.

在几百年的时间里，普通的英国工人从一个贫困的农民转变为生产力更高的产业工人。

The average British worker went from an average destitute farmer in a few hundred years becoming to an industrial worker with a lot higher productivity.

因此，他应该能用工资买到更多的房子。

So he should be able to afford more house with his salary.

对吧？

Right?

以前确实如此。

So that was the case.