A Different Network Effect

大家好，我是爱德华·钱瑟，欢迎来到新一期的资本周期播客。

Hello, this is Edward Chancellor with another episode of the Capital Cycle podcast.

今天和我一起的是本·斯林斯比，他是马拉松资产管理公司欧洲投资组合的分析师。

And I've got with me Ben Slingsby, who is an analyst on Marathon's European portfolios.

欢迎本。

Welcome, Ben.

谢谢邀请，爱德华。

Thanks for having me, Edward.

现在Ben，在你最近的全球投资评论中，你谈到了网络效应，并且你首先指出，网络效应一直是竞争优势的关键来源。

Now Ben, in your recent Global Investment Review, you talk about network effects, and you start by making this point that network effects have been a critical source of competitive advantage.

在科技领域，众所周知，你质疑这种优势，也就是大型科技公司的网络效应，可能无法在未来持续下去。

In the tech sector, as we all know, you question that this advantage that they have had, the big tech network effects, might not be sustained going forward.

因此，你找到了另一个让你兴奋的网络，那就是相对平凡的公用事业电力网络或电网。

And so you find a different network to get excited about, and that's namely the relatively mundane utility power networks or grids.

告诉我，Ben，你为什么觉得欧洲的电网有吸引力？

Tell me, Ben, why you find the European grids attractive?

我喜欢它们，因为它们是垄断企业，核心增长率已经加速到低两位数，而且还在继续上升。

I like them because they are monopoly businesses whose core growth rate has accelerated to low double digits and continues to rise.

电力短缺已成为关键瓶颈，拖慢了AI数据中心的建设。

The lack of power has become a key bottleneck, slowing the AI data center build out.

而装满GPU的AI数据中心需要大量的电力。

And AI data centers stuffed with their GPUs required massive amounts of power.

没错。

Exactly.

事实证明，能源对AI的重要性就像水对鱼一样。

It turns out that energy is as vital to AI as water is to fish.

大洋彼岸的美国投资者似乎比欧洲同行更早认识到这一趋势，但也许是因为美国的数据中心建设更先进。

US investors across the pond seem to recognize this trend earlier than their European counterparts, but perhaps that's because the data center build out is more advanced stateside.

感觉我们作为欧洲追赶交易还处于相当早期的阶段，这应该有利于欧洲公用事业股。

It feels like we're still in a fairly early innings of of this as a European catch up trade, and this should benefit European utility stocks.

你说，欧洲公用事业股在全球主动管理者的投资组合中并不被广泛持有，也不在流行的所谓优质成长基金中。

Now European utility stocks are not widely owned, you say, in global portfolios of active managers and not in the popular so called quality growth funds.

那为什么那些追求优质成长的投资人会避开公用事业股呢？

So why do quality investors shun utilities?

通常，我听到的来自基金经理的反对意见主要有三点：一是资本投入太大，二是杠杆率过高，三是监管风险太重。

Well, the pushback I usually get from PMs, portfolio managers, is that they are one, too capital intensive, two, too levered, and and three, carry too much regulatory risk.

此外，还有大量关于受监管资产基础和准许收益率等具体的法规和专业术语，这让很多泛行业投资者觉得太复杂了。

There's also a lot of specific regulation and jargon of regulated asset bases and allowed returns, which many generalist investors deem too complex.

我们先从资本密集度这个问题说起。

Let's start with capital intensity.

你把电网的资本支出计划跟那些大型科技超大规模厂商相比吗？

You compare the grid's capital spending plans to the big tech hyperscalers?

对。

Yes.

关于我刚才提到的第一点，也就是资本密集度，有趣的是，超大规模厂商和电力网络之间的差距正在缩小。

On the first bare point I mentioned, capital intensity, this is actually converging between hyperscalers and power networks interestingly.

比如，Meta的资本支出占营收的比例，现在已经超过了公用事业公司的平均水平。

So Meta's CapEx, the revenue ratio, for example, is now above that of the average utility.

甚至比2000年科技泡沫时期AT&T的水平还要高。

And it's even above AT and T's during the last tech bubble in 2000.

Meta的投资回报非常不确定，而投入电网的增长型资本支出却能获得有保障的监管回报率，通常股本回报率在9%到10%左右。

Meta's return on investment is very uncertain, whereas growth CapEx into a power network earns a guaranteed regulated return, typically around the 910% return on equity level.

从资本周期的角度来看这点很重要，因为与其他行业相比，电网在资本支出增加时受到的冲击要小得多。

And that's important from a capital cycle perspective because grids don't suffer as much from pickup in capital spending compared to other sectors.

没错，确实如此。

Yes, that's right.

监管允许公用事业公司打破资本周期的限制，这么说吧。

Regulation allows utilities to defy the capital cycle, if you will.

随着更多资金投入网络，回报率并不会下降，因为监管保证了股本回报率。

Returns do not decrease as more capital goes into the networks because regulation guarantees that return on equity.

所以网络业务是天然垄断行业，没有竞争。

So network businesses are natural monopolies with no competition.

这种回报的风险非常低。

That return is very low risk.

你认为这个行业能从持续的资本支出中获得不错的回报吗？

And you believe the sector can earn decent returns from its ongoing capital spending?

是的。

Yes.

目前看来，监管机构有动力批准合理的回报率，这意味着电力网络拥有越来越多具有吸引力的资本配置机会。

Right now, it feels like regulators are incentivized to grant fair returns, which means that the power networks have an increasing number of attractive capital allocation opportunities.

如果电力网络需要去杠杆来为增长融资，它们也可以以不错的倍数出售现有资产。

Power networks can also sell existing assets at decent multiples if they need to delever to fund growth.

全球私募股权和私募基础设施基金手里还有大约2.5万亿美元的待投资金，他们正在寻找像电网这样能产生现金流的资产。

Private equity and private infrastructure funds have about $2,500,000,000,000 of dry powder globally, and they are seeking cash generative assets like power grids.

他们一直在以高于上市公用事业股价所隐含的估值收购电网的股权，而且他们的基金结构允许使用更高的杠杆。

They have been buying stakes and grids at higher valuations that is implied by listed utility share prices, and their fund structures enable higher leverage.

另外，利率从近期高点回落，降低了融资成本，也推高了电网的估值。

Additionally, rates have been coming down from recent peaks, lowering the cost of funding and boosting grid valuations.

你认为电网几乎肯定会保持其主导地位，而这一点未必适用于那些科技巨头，是吗？

And you believe that the power grids almost certain to maintain their dominant positions, whereas that can't necessarily be said for the tech giants?

是的。

Yes.

我认为，一个地区目前领先的电网垄断企业，几乎肯定会在二十年后仍然是关键参与者。

I think the leading power grid monopoly in a region today will almost certainly be the key player in, say, two decades time.

相比之下，领先的科技公司有多少次能在几十年的时间里避免被颠覆，尤其是在像现在这样技术变革空前迅速的时代？

In contrast, how often has a leading tech player been able to avoid disruption over a multi decade period, especially in a time of such unprecedented technological change as now?

我想换个说法，投入英国电力传输网络的一英镑资本支出，能带来四十五年的受监管的、与通胀挂钩的现金流。

I guess putting it another way, a pound of CapEx invested into UK power transmission network and regulated inflation linked cash flow for forty five years.

这与科技基础设施和半导体的资产寿命形成鲜明对比，考虑到创新的速度，超过五年的折旧率看起来已经相当乐观了。

And this contrast quite sharply with the asset lives of tech infrastructure and semiconductors, where depreciation rates of over five years appear pretty optimistic given the pace of innovation.

关于你的第二个要点，高杠杆，你说优质成长型投资者会避开那些利用债务来提高股本回报率的行业。

And on your second bare point, high leverage, you say that quality growth investors shun sectors that use debt to boost returns on equity.

在某些情况下，这可能是合理的。

Now this might, in some cases, be justified.

过去两年我们读了很多关于泰晤士水务的困境，这家曾经高杠杆、表现不佳的水务公司，现在几乎处于崩溃状态。

We've read a lot over the last couple of years about the travails of Thames Water, the formerly highly leveraged poor performing water utility that has been in a state of more or less collapse.

我猜你们的欧洲电网运营商可没像泰晤士水务那样到处漏水。

I'm assuming that your European grid operators aren't leaking in the same way as Thames Water.

对。

Yes.

公开市场的投资者可不会容忍我们在泰晤士等某些私营公用事业公司看到的那种高杠杆水平。

Public market investors would not tolerate the levels of leverage that we've seen at some of the privately owned utilities like Thames.

那些上市的电力企业纪律严明得多。

The listed power players have been much more disciplined.

电力公用事业公司的债务期限通常较短，比如国家电网的债务大约十年左右，而且负债水平要可控得多。

The electricity utilities debt is typically termed out sort of ten years in the case of National Grid and debt levels are much more manageable.

你也知道，只有当债务无法偿还时，高杠杆才会成为问题。

As you know, leverage only becomes a problem when it can't be repaid.

这些电力网络拥有高度可预测的受监管现金流，并且有相应的实体资产可以作为抵押来融资。

These power networks have highly predictable regulated cash flows and their own appropriate hard assets to borrow against.

此外，像Ebitrola和国家电网这样的关键企业最近都通过增发股票来为庞大的资本支出计划筹集资金。

Additionally, key players like Ebitrola and National Grid have recently raised equity to fund their vast growth CapEx programmes.

所以他们的资产负债表现在非常强劲。

So their balance sheets are very strong right now.

这些不是陷入困境的企业进行的紧急融资，而是市场反应良好的积极融资。

These were not distressed capital raises by troubled businesses, but rather positive capital raises that the market has taken very well.

这些公司目前是否享有较低的融资成本？

And these companies enjoy favorable financing costs at the moment?

是的，资本支出可以以相当低的成本融资，从而相对于真实资本成本产生正利差，进而创造股东价值。

Yes, CapEx could be financed pretty cheaply, enabling a positive spread versus the true cost of capital, thus creating shareholder value.

例如，今年夏天，德国领先的公用事业公司E.ON。

For example, this summer, the leading German utility E.

发行了2031年到期的绿色债券，票面利率仅为3%。

Issued green bonds due in 2031 at just a 3% coupon.

公用事业公司正经历高资本密集度，因为他们拥有庞大且有吸引力的增长机会，回报率也很可观。

Utilities are seeing high levels of capital intensity because they have such large and attractive growth opportunities at solid returns.

他们目前的可服务市场巨大且不断增长，麦肯锡估计，到2040年，全球电网支出将增至每年1.2万亿美元。

Their addressable market today is vast and increasing, with McKinsey estimating that global grid spend will ramp to $1,200,000,000,000 per annum by 2040.

第三个看空因素是监管风险，这让投资者对公用事业公司望而却步。

And the third bearish point that leads investors to shun the utilities, regulatory risk.

没错，不可否认的是，由于电网属于真正的垄断行业，所以受到高度监管。

Yes, there's no denying that the networks are highly regulated as they are true monopolies.

在现有电缆旁边再建一套重复的电网，成本会高得离谱。

It'd be absurdly expensive to try and build out a duplicate grid alongside existing cables.

但作为没有竞争的交换条件，监管机构限制了它们能获得的回报率，以此来压低终端用户的电费账单。

But in exchange for no competition, regulators cap the returns they are allowed to make to keep end customer bills down.

好消息是，发达市场的监管机构普遍在提高回报率。

The good news is that regulators across developed markets are generally increasing returns.

他们意识到公用事业公司未来几年需要投入巨额资本，而政府自身的资产负债表已经无力承担这些投资。

They recognise the need for utilities to spend huge amounts of capital over the coming years stretch government balance sheets cannot fund that investment.

因此必须引入私人资本。

Private capital is needed.

资本竞争是全球性的，如果提供的回报率不够高，资金就会流向其他地方。

Competition for that capital is global, and so insufficient returns on offer would see funding head elsewhere.

所以目前来看，电网公司和监管机构之间的利益是一致的。

Incentives are therefore aligned currently between the networks and their regulators.

所以这些欧洲公用事业股票最近表现还不错。

So these European utility stocks have been doing relatively well recently.

是的，在经历了两年表现不佳之后。

Yes, after two years of underperformance.

过去一年，欧洲公用事业板块以美元计算跑赢了MSCI欧洲指数18个百分点，跑赢了标普500指数31个百分点。

Over the past year, European utilities have beaten the index MSCI Europe by 18% and the S and P 500 by 31% in dollar terms.

过去十年持有西班牙领先公用事业公司Iberdrola的投资者，分别跑赢了这两个指数228个百分点和61个百分点。

And investors that have owned the leading Spanish utility Iberdrola for the past decade have beaten those indices by two twenty eight percentage points and 61 percentage points respectively.

然而，尽管表现这么好，估值看起来仍然相对有吸引力。

And yet, despite this good performance, valuations still appear relatively attractive.

是的，尽管近期表现强劲，公用事业的估值仍接近长期平均水平，并且相对于欧洲市场有折价。

Yes, despite recent strength, utility valuations remain close to in line with long term averages and at a discount versus the European market.

我们认为未来基本面改善，这支持估值持续重估和高市盈率。

We think the improved fundamentals ahead argue for a sustained rerating and high multiples.

这些股票表现不错，因为近年来它们的增长率翻了一番，但实际上那是在人工智能成为关键主题之前。

The stocks have done well because their growth rates have doubled in recent years, but that was actually before AI became a key theme.

第一波增长是由电气化大趋势推动的。

The first wave of this has been driven by the electrification megatrend.

在人工智能到来之前，欧洲的可再生能源发电和电动汽车的普及率一直在上升。

The penetration rates of renewable power generation and electric vehicles have been rising in Europe before AI arrived.

在你的文章里，有一张图表显示，过去几年美国电力生产大幅增长，而欧洲的却在下降。

In your piece, you have a chart that shows US electricity production taking off over the last few years and European production declining.

你认为这是预期欧洲将迎头赶上的依据。

And you suggest that this is grounds for expecting a European catch up.

我想对这个论点的反驳是，欧洲电力消费和生产相对美国较弱，仅仅是因为欧洲的电力成本太高。

I think the counterpoint to that argument would be to say that the reason European electricity consumption and production has been relatively weak compared to The US is simply because European electricity costs are so high.

你认为这未来不会成为问题吗？

You don't think that's going to be a problem going forward?

是的。

Yes.

没错。

That's correct.

欧洲确实没有美国那样丰富且廉价的能源资源，但可再生能源被视为一个解决方案。

Europe does not have the same abundant cheap energy resources as The US, but renewable energy is viewed as one answer.

通常，欧洲的可再生能源发电地点远离需求中心，比如苏格兰北部近海的风力最强，但距离伦敦超过500英里。

Often, renewable power generation is located a long way from the demand centers in Europe, so it's windiest offshore in Northern Scotland, over 500 miles from London.

这意味着需要铺设巨大的电缆将电力向南输送至需求地，而电网公司因此受益。

That means that huge cables are being built to move the power south to where it's needed and the power network stocks are benefiting.

你是说欧洲耗电量大的数据中心会进一步推高电力需求？

You're saying there's going to be an additional boost to demand from power hungry data centers in Europe?

是的。

Yes.

所以这个主题似乎已经蔓延到欧洲，高盛估计目前的数据中心项目管道在过去九个月内增长了65%，总规模达到280吉瓦。

So it feels like that theme has now arrived in Europe with Goldman Sachs estimating that the current data center pipeline has increased 65% in the past nine months to a total of two eighty gigawatts.

这相当于目前欧盟总电力需求的约90%。

That's equivalent to about 90% of all existing power demand in The EU today.

供应很紧张吗？

And supply is tight?

对。

Yes.

比如英国的电力系统，现在简直都堵死了。

The UK energy system, for example, is literally gridlocked.

所以过去五年里，英国电网的连接排队队伍翻了十倍。如果你想新建一个太阳能或风电场，现在的等待时间长达十五年。

So The UK grid connection queue has grown tenfold over the past five years and the current wait time is fifteen years if you want to try and connect a new solar or wind farm.

所以，扩建和升级电网是解决方案的关键部分。

So extending and upgrading power grids is a key part of the solution.

比如，英国国家电网的输电业务现在年增长率达到11%，而六年前只有4%，这就是因为我们刚才讨论的那个大趋势。

National Grid's UK electricity transmission business is now growing at 11% per annum, for example, up from just four percent six years ago because of that megatrend that we've discussed.

那么作为总结，你觉得这些投资者可能会觉得有点无聊的股票，其实是近乎完美的投资标的？

So by way of conclusion, you think that these, what some investors might call slightly dull stocks, are almost ideal investments.

跟我们详细说说吧。

Talk us through that.

嗯，如果我们想想在当前环境下什么样的股票算是理想的，它得能提供超额收益。

Well, if we think about sort of the ideal stock potentially in today's environment, it would need to offer alpha.

也就是要跑赢大盘。

And that was to beat the market.

对，没错。

Yes, exactly.

比如股东总回报能达到低双位数，而MSCI欧洲指数的长期回报率只有6%到8%。

A market beating total shareholder return of, say, low double digits versus long term returns for MSCI Europe Index of six percent to 8%.

欧洲电网类股票通常能提供中高位个位数的每股收益增长，加上大约4%的股息收益率，合计起来在同等条件下能带来低双位数的股东总回报。

European power network stocks typically offer mid to high single digit earnings per share growth, plus a circa 4% dividend yield, summing up to a low double digit total shareholder return, Ceteris paribus.

其次，这类股票能避开资本周期的波动，因为它们是垄断性业务，没有竞争威胁来干扰经营。

Secondly, the stock will be protected from the capital cycle, a monopoly business with no threats of competition disrupting it.

理想情况下，这类股票所在的板块在全球范围内不太受主动型投资者的追捧和持有。

Ideally, the stock might sit in a sector that is not widely owned globally by active investors.

核心业务的增长会呈现结构性加速，而且这类股票既能蹭上当前AI热潮带来的上涨红利，又具备防御属性；万一AI投资降温，它们也能跑赢大盘。

Growth in the core business would be accelerating structurally and the stock would capture some of the upside from the current key market theme of AI, but also be defensive and outperform if AI investment diminishes.

最后，估值得合理。

Finally, valuation would be reasonable.

所以它可能不会出现在估值过高的美国市场，但大概率会在今天的欧洲市场上市。

So it might not be listed in the richly valued US market, but probably listed in Europe today.

那你们欧洲投资组合里的选股，我猜是英国国家电网和伊维尔德罗拉？

So your your stock picks that you have in the European portfolios, I take it at National Grid and Iberdrola?

对。

Yes.

国家电网和伊维尔德罗拉都在马拉松基金的英国和欧洲投资组合里。

National Grid and Iberdrola are owned in Marathon's UK and European portfolios.

伊维尔德罗拉简直就是一家全球巨头，在西班牙、美国、英国和巴西都有资产，主要是电力网络。

Iberdrola is quite literally a global powerhouse with assets in Spain, The US, The UK and Brazil, mainly electricity networks.

伊维尔德罗拉的董事长持有大约1600万股，价值3.25亿美元，所以激励措施配合得很到位。

Iberdrola's chairman owns about 16,000,000 shares worth $325,000,000 so incentives are nicely aligned.

总的来说，这只股票看起来很适合长期投资者继续持有并获取收益。

Overall, the stock feels likely to continue to power on for the long term investor.

太好了。

Great.

非常感谢，Ben。

Thanks a lot, Ben.

也很感谢你接受我的邀请，Edward。

Thank you very much for having me, Edward.

谢谢你今天抽出时间。

Thank you for your time today.

希望你会收听下一期的《资本周期》节目。

I hope you will listen to the next edition of the Capital Cycle.

本内容仅供参考。

This communication is provided for information purposes only.

如需更多信息，包括重要披露事项，请参阅马拉松公司的网站以及全球投资综述。

Please refer to Marathon's website and the Global Investment Reviews for further information, including important disclosures.