AI and the Material World

欢迎收听《资本周期》播客的又一期节目。

Welcome to another episode of the Capital Cycle podcast.

我是爱德华·钱塞勒，今天请到了马拉松新兴市场投资组合经理亚历克斯·达菲。

This is Edward Chancellor, and I have with me Alex Duffy, Emerging Markets Portfolio Manager at Marathon.

嗨，爱德华。

Hi, Edward.

非常感谢你邀请我来。

Thanks very much for having me on.

亚历克斯，我们正经历着杰富瑞策略师、泡沫专家克里斯·伍德所说的“史上最大资本开支周期”。

Alex, we're living through what the Jefferies strategist, Chris Wood, expert on bubbles, calls the mother of all CapEx cycles.

而且从你最近在《全球投资评论》上发表的文章来看，这个周期让你夜不能寐。

And judging from your latest contribution to the Global Investment Review, it's been giving you nightmares.

是的，我认为我们正处于周期的这个阶段，克里斯·伍德称之为AI周期的“融涨”阶段。

Yeah, I think we're in that period of the cycle, which Chris Wood, I think, referred to as the melt up phase of the AI cycle.

最让人印象深刻的是，这种现象已经变得多么普遍。

And the thing that really strikes one is how pervasive that's become.

所以这感觉就像是一个单一主题主导的市场，大家都在盯着这一个主题，而且它无处不在。

So this feels like one trade with a market that's fixated on one singular thematic, and it's all and everywhere.

因此，作为一个有点逆向思维的资本周期投资者，经历这个过程相当痛苦，但也因此更加引人入胜。

And so as a somewhat contrarian capital cyclist, this is quite a painful experience to live through and no less fascinating as a consequence of that.

你确实引用了一个数据，说美国经济增长中，有40%的增长来自人工智能资本开支。

And you actually cite a figure saying that US economic growth is 40% of the increase in economic growth is coming from AI CapEx.

我看到Panmure Liberum发布的一篇文章说，实际上美国100%的增长都来自人工智能资本开支。

I saw a piece put out by Panmure Liberum saying that actually 100% of US growth is coming from AI CapEx.

你可以选任何一个数字，但不管怎样，这个比例都相当大。

You can take whichever number you want, but it's pretty large.

对，所以我认为这恰恰说明了人工智能已经成为一个包罗万象的主题。

Yeah, so I think this is actually the point about AI becoming an all and everything thematic.

它驱动了如此多的经济活动，并且已经渗透到像美国这样的大经济体的每一个角落。

It's driving so much of economic activity and has found its way into every area of a large economy such as The US.

所以，如果你看看非人工智能相关行业的资本开支，实际上现在美国同比是负增长的，这说明在创造实际就业方面，几乎没有什么进展。

So if you looked at CapEx outside of AI related sectors, it's actually now negative year on year inside The US, which tells you that there's very little going on in terms of a real world job creation environment.

所以这已经成为一个非常非常普遍的主题，我们需要意识到这一点。

And so this has become a very, very pervasive thematic that we need to be aware of.

我记得和你的同事查尔斯·卡特聊过，AI主题在股市中挤占了其他板块，但实际上在美国实体经济中也在挤占其他领域。

And I think was talking to your colleague, Charles Carter, about how AI theme crowds out other sectors in the stock market, but it's also actually crowding out in the real economy too, at least in The United States.

是的，我认为如果你看看建筑成本不断上升，再看看这对大宗商品价格的影响，就会发现这个环境是由美国超大规模企业的大规模支出驱动的，这些企业对价格不敏感，而不是由那些基于短期回报公式进行投资的企业、行业甚至个人驱动的。

Yeah, and I think you see that if you just look at construction costs as they become more elevated, if you look at the impact that this starts to have on commodity prices, it's really an environment which is being driven by very large spending by price agnostic, in this case, the hyperscalers in The US, as opposed to businesses and sectors and indeed individuals who are investing on a near term returns based formula.

所以这是一个非常不同的投资理由驱动因素，其影响远远超出了科技领域，而科技领域通常是人们看待它的方式。

And so it's a very different driver of the rationale to invest, which has implications far beyond the technology sector, which is typically how it gets viewed.

你觉得人们应该更多考虑AI市场下行的风险，而不是继续关注与AI相关的任何事物持续跑赢的机会吗？

And you think that people should be thinking more about the risks of an AI market downturn rather than the opportunities for continued outperformance from anything related to AI?

我认为对此有两方面的回应。

I think there's a two pronged response to that.

首先，AI推动了如此多的增量经济活动，如果对这种资本投资的理由产生任何质疑，或者资本支出时间表出现任何空档，那么这可能对实体经济产生相当重大的影响，远远超出科技本身。

The first is this point around AI is driving so much of incremental economic activity that if there's any questioning of the rationale for that capital investment or any air pocket in the timeframe over which that capital is being spent, then that could have quite material implications for the real economy that goes far beyond technology itself.

但更重要的是它对全球市场、股票市场以及私募股权市场的影响，在这些市场中，对更广泛主题的敞口持续增加。

But it's also more around the impact that it's having on global markets, equity markets, as well as private equity markets, where exposure to the thematic more broadly continues to ratchet up.

在我看来，这给资产配置者带来了问题。

And that, to my mind, poses problems for asset allocators.

那我们就来谈谈这个。

So let's talk about that.

比如，阿波罗的首席经济学家Thorsten Slocke上周在他的每日图表中发布了一份报告，谈的正是这个：AI在风险投资中的占比，不用说，现在已经达到90%，被像OpenAI和Anthropic这样极度渴求资金、还在亏损的企业所主导。

For instance, Thorsten Slocke, the chief economist of Apollo, had a note out one of his daily charts out last week, talking about exactly this, the AI share of venture capital is needless to say 90% now, dominated by the incredibly hungry likes of OpenAI and Anthropic or loss making business.

我们关心的是公开市场。

We're concerned with the public markets.

高盛在四月底发布了一份估计，说美国股市，比如标普500，大约有45%的敞口与AI主题相关。

Goldman's had an estimate out at the end of April that The US stock market, the S and P 500, let's say, is around 45% exposed to AI themes.

而且我们都知道，美国市场的集中度比历史上任何时候都高，集中在少数几只股票上，而美国市场非常大，虽然还没到顶峰，但已经占全球市场的60%以上。

And as we all know, The US market is more concentrated in a handful of names than it had ever been in history, and The US market is a very large, not quite at its peak, but it's over 60% of the global market.

你还提到了一点，我之前不知道的，就是AI现在正在向你的领域，也就是新兴市场，扩展。

And you have added something which I wasn't aware of, was the extent to which AI is now moving your own domain, namely Emerging Markets.

是的，过去十二个月里，AI主题的重点已经从美国的超大规模企业转向了“卖铲子”的公司，也就是科技供应链。

Yeah, so the focus of the AI thematic has really, in the last twelve months, moved away from The US hyperscalers towards the picks and shovels, so the tech supply chain.

主要集中在韩国和台湾，三星电子、台积电最初是领头羊，但现在已经深入到了这些指数中一些更冷门的公司。

Predominantly in Korea and Taiwan, Samsung Electronics, TSMC were the bellwethers initially, but it's gone far deeper than that into some more esoteric companies that comprise those indexes.

所以它们现在占MSCI新兴市场指数的45%左右。

So they now stand at 45% or so of MSCI Emerging Markets.

明确一下，这是韩国和台湾的权重，对吧？

To be clear, this is the weighting of Korea and Taiwan Correct.

在MSCI新兴市场指数中。

In the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

而这是从25%上升上来的，换句话说，在一年多的时间里上升了20个百分点，这是一个显著的变动。

And that is up from 25%, in other words, a 20 move in the course of a little more than a year, which is a remarkable move.

你的文章里有一张图表显示，过去十五年里，韩国和台湾在MSCI新兴市场指数中的权重一直在25%到30%左右徘徊。

You you include a chart in your piece which shows that the range of Korea and Taiwan in the MSCI Emerging Index has really been around 25%, 25% to 30% over the previous fifteen years.

你还有一张图表显示半导体、科技硬件和设备在新兴市场中的权重。

Now you also have a chart showing the weighting of the semiconductors, tech, hardware and equipment as a share of emerging markets.

这也大幅上升了，从大约18%到20%（那是大约十八个月前的水平）上升到今天的38%左右。

Which has also increased substantially from around 18 to 20%, where it was eighteen months or so ago, to around 38% today.

而且这个增长速度还在加快，一直在加快。

And that rate of increase has just accelerated, continues to accelerate.

回到之前说的，这对资产配置者来说，从分散投资的角度看，是一个挑战。

To go back to the earlier point, this is one of the challenges for asset allocators from a diversification perspective.

现在看全球的投资组合和指数，你会发现它们和这个单一的交易，也就是AI交易，相关性越来越高。这不仅体现在这些指数里的权重，还因为这部分市场涨得太快，正在推动全球的回报。

If you now look at global portfolios, global indices, what you find is that there's increasing correlation to this singular trade, the AI trade, let's call it, that not only represents the weightings of those indexes, but also because of the rate of ascent of that part of the market is driving returns at a global level.

所以，我们认为客户在考虑构建全球多元化股票投资组合时，需要非常注意这一点。

And so this is something that which we feel and we believe our clients need to be quite mindful of as they're thinking about constructing a globally diversified equity portfolios.

对于新兴科技半导体企业、存储芯片制造商、硬件和设备制造商，你其实并不质疑这些公司或其管理层。

And in the case of the emerging tech semiconductor businesses and memory makers and hardware and equipment makers, you don't actually have an argument with the companies or their managements.

不，我们对其中一些企业有大量投资，比如台积电、台达电子、联发科，这些在过去五到七年里一直是投资组合的一部分，台积电甚至更久。

No, so we've had significant exposure to some of these businesses, Taiwan Semi, Delta Electronics, MediaTek, they've comprised the portfolio over the last five to seven years and beyond in the case of TSMC.

管理团队对资本的管理一直很负责。

Management teams have been good stewards of capital.

话虽如此，我们现在处于周期的这个阶段，业务风险，也就是管理层主要能控制和关注的风险，已经被估值风险和市场的跟风行为所掩盖了。

That said, we are at the stage of the cycle where the business risk, which is predominantly what the management teams would be able to control and to focus on, is being overawed by the valuation risk and the crowd like behavior of markets.

所以我觉得我们的研究更聚焦在这个方面。

And so that I think is where our research is being more focused upon.

说到估值风险，半导体行业周期性很强。

So on the valuation risk, the semiconductor businesses are highly cyclical.

我不太了解你提到的那些新兴公司，但我看到美光科技的市盈率是九倍。

I don't know about your emerging names, but I see the Micron Technology is trading on nine times earnings.

虽然这些盈利在过去一年里涨了七八倍，但你觉得这些业务的估值风险在哪里？

Now, those earnings are up seven or eight fold in the last year, but tell me what you see as the valuation risk for these businesses.

我觉得首先退一步看，我们看到一些行业结构在整合。

I think, first and foremost, stepping back, we have seen some of these industry structures consolidate.

所以在科技支出上升周期的早期，我们对它们是比较看好的。

So we were quite positively disposed to them earlier on in the up cycle of technology spending.

但看现在的估值，我们觉得这真的开始把当前的盈利水平外推到未来，而且这个时间跨度对利润持续性的预期显得非常非常乐观。

But as we look at valuations today, we feel that that is really starting to extrapolate current levels of profitability into the future over a timeframe which starts to look very, very optimistic about the duration of profits.

最终，在科技供应链中，确实有些公司，比如台积电，我们认为它通过技术护城河主导了其最终利润池。

And ultimately, the technology supply chain, yes, there are certain companies of which TSMC we would argue is one which dominates its end profit pool through a technological moat.

但其他一些公司则更加商品化。

But there are others which are much more commoditized.

而且让我们特别注意的是，现在股价表现最夸张的并不是那些领先的龙头企业。

And one of the things that's really stood out to us is that it's no longer the performance of the leading bellwethers.

实际上，是供应链中那些深度商品化的供应商和零部件供应商，它们的股价波动最为剧烈。

It's actually the deep commodity suppliers, the component suppliers in the supply chain, which has seen the most hyperbolic movements in share prices.

对我们来说，这些是时间和资本密集型的业务。

And to us, these are time and capital businesses.

在这个节骨眼上，考虑到当前的估值水平，资本非常充裕，问题只是时间——资本周期何时会转向。

And at this juncture, which I think we might go on to with valuations where they are, capital is abundant, and it's just a question of time for when that capital cycle will turn.

对。

Yeah.

你说你认为这些瓶颈不会持续下去。

And you say you don't believe these bottlenecks will continue.

我今天早些时候读到，就内存制造商而言，新的供应将在2027年底和2028年出现。

I read earlier today that in the case of memory makers, that there is new supply coming on in late 'twenty seven, 'twenty eight.

是的，所以我认为现在供需关系明显非常紧张，这是资本周期中一个有趣的节点，但这一点已经反映在价格上了，比如三星电子的营业利润率在某些情况下从15%涨到了90%的毛利率。

Yeah, so I think that right now, there is clearly a very tight supply demand picture, and so that's an interesting point in the capital cycle, but that's priced by the fact that operating margins in the case of Samsung Electronics have gone from 15% to 90% gross margins in some instances.

我们不能说这种状况能持续多久。

We wouldn't say that you can extrapolate that for any extent of time.

我想到的一点是，超大规模云服务商实际上在为所有这些半导体和存储芯片买单。

And the point when I think about it is that the hyperscalers are in effect paying for all these semiconductors and memory chips and so on.

这些是美国的大型超大规模云服务商，它们的增量资本回报率在下降，现金流在萎缩，投入的增量资本回报率也在下降。

And these are the big US hyperscalers and their returns on incremental capital are collapsing, their cash flow is collapsing, and their returns on incremental capital invested are also falling.

我跟你提过的那份Panmure报告声称，根据分析师的预期，它们实际上在投入资本上获得了负回报。

And a Panmure report I mentioned to you actually claims that based on analysts' expectations, they're actually earning negative returns on invested capital.

我的看法是，即使半导体和存储类股票所处的资本周期相对紧张，如果底层业务不能产生现金流或不稳健，那这就是一个风险。

Now, my view is that even if you have a relatively tight capital cycle, which the semiconductors and memory stocks appear to be in, if the underlying business is not cash generative or sound, then that's a risk.

我在想，这又回到了你熟悉的领域，比如你记得从大约2003年到2013年的矿业超级周期吧。

And I was thinking, this goes back to something you'll know back source in your domain, which is, if you remember the mining super cycle that went on from, I don't know, 2003 to roughly 2013.

那时候，行业也是相当整合的。

And again, you had fairly consolidated industries.

当时有大量的资本开支，但那些大宗商品开采的基础经济是流向中国的，在那里要么回报很低，比如铁矿石进入钢铁制造业务，要么可能因为进入房地产而获得负回报。

You had massive CapEx, but the underlying economics of that mining of the sort of commodity extraction was going to China where it was earning either low returns, say iron ore going into steelmaking businesses, or potentially negative returns by going into real estate.

我觉得我们可能正在看到类似的情况。

And I think my hunch is we may be sort of seeing something similar today.

我完全同意。

I would completely concur with that.

而且我认为市场犯的错误是说这不是泡沫区域，因为估值没有像九十年代末那样被过度推高。

And I think that the mistake that markets make is to say this is not bubble territory because valuations are not extrapolated as they were in the late nineties.

然后矿商，如果你记得2012年，他们大约以账面价值或10倍市盈率交易，对吧？

And then the miners, if you remember back in 2012, they were trading at around book or they trading at 10 times earnings or thereabouts?

他们以7到8倍市盈率交易，但实际发生的是，由于利润率如此之高，企业价值与投入资本之比以及市净率倍数被抬高了。

They traded at seven to eight times earnings, but what actually happened is the EV to invested capital and price to book multiples inflated because the margins were so high.

数万亿美元的投资。

Trillions of dollars of investment.

所以绝对如此，但这就是相似之处。

So absolutely, but that's the parallel.

如今，科技供应链，你会听到有人说它估值有吸引力，市盈率20倍，但这忽略了市净率已经涨了四五倍甚至六倍的事实。

Today, the tech supply chain, you'll hear quotes such as that it's attractively valued on 20 times earnings, but that ignores the fact that the price to book multiples have gone up by four, five, six fold.

所以这是一个盈利泡沫，而不是估值泡沫。

And so it's an earnings bubble, it's not a valuation bubble.

因为那正是我所说的基本面泡沫。

Because that's what I call a fundamental bubble.

当泡沫出现在资产负债表或盈利中时，我称之为基本面泡沫。而大多数投资者或思考市场的人总是只看简单的估值指标，比如市盈率，然后说，看，美光市盈率才9倍，很便宜。

When the bubble is in the balance sheet or in the earnings, I call that a fundamental And most investors or people who think about markets always look at just simple valuation metrics on the PE basis and say, look, Micron's on nine times earning, it's cheap.

这忽略了业务的周期性。

Which misses the cyclicality of the business.

而在矿业周期中发生的情况，并不是公司当时做出了糟糕的决定，而是它们对来自中国过度投资的虚假价格信号做出了反应。

And what happened in the mining cycle is not that the companies made terrible decisions at that point in time, but they were responding to a false price signal that was coming from over investment in China.

今天的类比是，科技供应链以及科技供应链股票估值的重新定价，是对来自美国内部非经济项目过度投资的价格信号的反应。

And the analogy today is that the tech supply chain and the rerating of the technology, tech supply chain equity multiples is a response to a price signal that is coming from a degree of overinvestment on uneconomic projects inside The US.

一旦这一点受到质疑，亚洲的估值倍数就会受到影响。

And once that gets questioned, there will be a flow through the valuation multiples in Asia.

而且我觉得这一点，更广泛的市场评论员们讨论得还不够。

And that I think is something that doesn't get discussed enough by broader market commentators.

对，我也这么认为。

Yeah, think so.

而且如果你还记得，资本周期投资方法的一个基本原则就是关注供给而不是需求。

And if you remember, one of the axioms of the capital cycle investment approach is to focus on supply and not demand.

现在的问题是，如果你关注AI领域的需求，那么——这也是Panmure报告中的另一个观点——超大规模企业必须在未来几年内实现高达5万亿美元的收入，才能合理化他们目前的资本支出。

Now, the trouble is if you focus on demand in the AI space, and then this is another point made by the Panmure report, the hyperscalers are gonna have to get up to $5,000,000,000,000 of revenue within the next few years to rationalize their CapEx spending at the moment.

当然，如果你是看涨的，我读过CO2，也就是Philippe LaFont的科技公司，他们认为AI的总可寻址市场是100万亿美元。好吧，祝他们好运。

Now, of course, if you're bull, and I was reading the CO2, the Philippe LaFont tech outfit, they think the total addressable market for AI is $100,000,000,000,000 Well, good luck to them.

如果你认为实际上四年内达到5万亿美元是个艰难的目标，那么我认为这些新兴市场的科技股存在脆弱性。

If you think actually $5,000,000,000,000 within four years is gonna be a hard call, then I think that there is a vulnerability to these emerging market tech plays.

我同意这一点。

And I would agree with that.

我的意思是，回到市场回调风险这一点，你可以继续向这些市场领域配置资本，但必须明白这样做存在巨大的相关性。

Mean, to come back to the point around the risk of a market drawdown, you can continue to allocate capital into these areas of the market, but one must understand that there's huge correlation in doing so.

而且，是的，可能还有上涨空间，如果你对低概率结果的判断正确，还会有一些额外的上行空间。

And yes, there might be further to run and some additional upside if you're right on what could be a low probability outcome.

然而，在这样的估值水平和市场狂热程度下，我们已经到了大型IPO的阶段，这些IPO通常标志着市场周期顶部的到来。

However, at these levels of valuations and this degree of market euphoria, we are at the point of the big IPOs that typically ring the bell on the top of market cycle such as that.

如果你对积极结果的判断错了，那么反事实对股票投资者来说非常非常具有挑战性，因为回撤不会是10%到15%，而是50%到60%。

If you're wrong on the positive outcome, well, counterfactual is very, very challenging for equity investors because the drawdown will not be 10 to 15%, it will be 50 to 60.

而且我认为，在那个时间点，上行空间相对于下行风险的不对称性，可能已经不利于增量资本进入这个行业。

And I think that upside given downside skew has probably moved against incremental capital coming into this sector at that point in time.

所以我们正处于涨潮的顶峰，即将开始退潮。

And so we're kind of at peak tide that's about to start ebbing.

实际上，亚历克斯，泡沫的融化阶段不仅仅是IPO，还有那些卖铲子的公司股价飙升。

And actually, Alex, the melt up phase of a bubble is not just the IPOs, it's actually picks and shovels going through the roof.

有趣的是，现在在美国发生的事情，和1999年、2000年的TMT泡沫一样，涉及的都是同样的名字，比如康宁、英特尔、思科，还有JDS Uniphase的业务，现在可能叫Veeva之类的，这些股票都涨疯了。

And what's interesting about what's going on now, at least in The States, is that the same names are involved today as the TMT bubble in 'ninety nine, 2000, namely Corning, Intel, Cisco, now the business of JDS, Uniphase, which I think is now called Veeva or something like that, they've all been going through the roof.

所以，就像当时一样，也有类似的卖铲子交易。

So there's a similar picks and shovels trade as we saw back then.

那你告诉我，如果你想控制对亚洲科技板块的风险敞口，你会怎么做？

So tell me if you're trying to control your exposure to the Asia technology?

你会转而投资什么？

What are you doing instead?

我觉得这又回到了我们之前简单提过的一点，就是资金正涌入全球股市的这个板块，而其他领域因此被忽视了。

I think this goes to the point that we touched on briefly earlier, which is that capital is rushing into this part of the global equity market, and there are other areas which are being neglected as a consequence of that.

所以，就像我们上次讨论的那样，我们回归到最基本的原则，也就是一个企业的各种可能结果是什么？

And so, as we discussed last time around, we come back very much to first principles, which is what are the range of outcomes for a business?

你怎么考虑以相对有吸引力的估值来获取这些回报，同时在你判断错误时提供保护？

How do you think about accessing those return profiles at relatively attractive valuations, which provide protection if you're wrong?

因此，由于资金被挤出，我们越来越多地发现，用我们的话说，全球新兴市场中下半部分的资产负债表重组特别有意思。

And so we're increasingly finding as a consequence of the crowding out of capital that there are lower half in our parlance, lower half balance sheet restructurings across global emerging markets, are particularly interesting.

这涉及不同的行业和地区，在这些地方，我们不需要对未来盈利和增长做出乐观假设，就能达到我们的回报门槛。

That is across a range of different sectors and geographies where our return thresholds can be met without making those bullish assumptions about future profitability and growth.

而你投资的一些领域，其实是过去的泡沫领域，比如中国房地产。

And some of the areas where you're putting your money is actually in the bubble areas of yesteryear, namely Chinese real estate.

我前几天看到一张图表，显示中国房地产价格回到了2010年的水平，差不多就是我开始看空这个行业和基础材料的时候。

I saw the other day a chart showing that Chinese real estate prices are back at their twenty ten level, which is just about when I started getting bearish on the sector, and in basic materials that we're just talking about.

但你还有其他行业。

But you've got other sectors as well.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得

I think

中国房地产是一个我们看到活动大幅收缩、供应大幅减少、公司重组、库存被注销清理的领域。

that Chinese real estate is an area where we've seen a huge contraction of activity, a huge contraction of supply, rationalization of companies, and cleaning up of inventory that's been written off.

所以现在股票以大幅低于账面价值的价格交易，但账面价值实际上可能值，如果不是100美分兑1美元，至少也在75以上。

And so stocks now trade at material discounts to book value, and yet the book values might actually be worth, if not 100¢ in the dollar, at least something above 75.

所以对我们来说，这是一个相当有吸引力的增量投资机会。

And so that to us is quite a compelling setup for incremental invest in.

还有其他市场被完全忽视了。

There are other markets that have been totally neglected.

菲律宾，十年前还是新兴市场投资的典范，消费升级、渗透率低等等，现在市盈率和市净率又回到了二十年来的低点。

The Philippines, which a decade ago was post a child for emerging market investing, rising consumerism, lower penetration and so forth, now trades back at twenty year lows on price to book and PE multiples.

而且不仅仅是这些市场表现不佳，关键在于当估值大幅下修时，公司层面会发生什么——管理层会改变资本配置的方式。

And it's not just the fact that these markets have underperformed, it's what happens at the company level when you get that degree of multiple derating is management teams change their approach to capital allocation.

所以我们在全球新兴市场中那些被忽视的角落所看到的，正是由于估值下修而带来的积极资本配置决策，这导致了供给的合理化，资本周期的转折。

And so what we're witnessing in some of these other more neglected parts of global emerging markets is positive capital allocation decisions as a consequence of the derating, which results in a rationalization of supplies, turning of the capital cycle.

我们想在这些情况中尽早介入。

And we want to be early in those situations.

这些情况的发展可能比预期的要慢，但考虑到你的入场点和管理层采取的行动，对于长期投资者来说，上行空间相对于下行风险是相当有利的。

They can always take longer to play out than one would hope, but actually, the upside given downside because of your entry level and the actions that management teams are taking can be quite favorable for long term investors.

这确实值得深思。

That's plenty to think about.

亚历克斯，非常感谢你又一次精彩的讨论。

And, Alex, thank you very much for another interesting discussion.

谢谢。

Thank you.

感谢你今天抽出时间。

Thank you for your time today.

希望你会收听下一期的《资本周期》。

I hope you will listen to the next edition of the Capital Cycle.

本通讯仅供参考。

This communication is provided for information purposes only.

请访问马拉松的网站和《全球投资评论》以获取更多信息，包括重要披露。

Please refer to Marathon's website and the Global Investment Reviews for further information, including important disclosures.