Fishing in Uncrowded Waters

你好。

Hello.

我是爱德华·钱德勒。

This is Edward Chancellor.

欢迎收听新一期的资本周期播客。

Welcome to another episode of the Capital Cycle podcast.

今天和我一起的是劳拉·费伊，她是马拉松资产管理公司的新兴市场分析师。

I've got with me Laura Fyfe, who's an emerging markets analyst with Marathon.

我们要再来看看新兴市场，几个月前我们已经和你的同事Alex Duffy聊过这个话题。

We're going to take another look at emerging markets, which we've already talked about with your colleague, Alex Duffy, a few months ago.

大家都知道，在过去十到十五年里，新兴市场在投资界一直不太受待见。

Emerging, as everyone knows, has been out of favor for the last ten to fifteen years in the investment world.

图表显示，自2000年亚洲金融危机之后，新兴市场股票指数相对于美国市场的表现已经跌到了最低点。

The charts show the emerging market stock index relative to The US at its lowest point since 2000, just after the Asian crisis.

近年来新兴市场的低迷，部分原因是资本周期的影响。

In part, the failure of emerging in recent years has been a capital cycle story.

毕竟，中国经历了历史上规模最大的投资热潮，但股市在过去十年里基本没怎么涨。

China, after all, experienced the largest investment boom in history, and its stock market has been flat over the past decade or so.

大宗商品在新兴市场中的占比相对较大，它们也经历过大起大落。

And commodities, which have a relatively large exposure in emerging markets, also boomed and bust.

不过我发现你这篇文章有个很有意思的点：从投资角度来看，新兴市场和美国的共同点其实比大家想象的要多得多。

But what I find, Laura, interesting about your piece is that you show that emerging surprisingly has much more in common with The US, at least from an investment perspective, than one might have thought.

劳拉，你觉得它们到底有哪些共同点呢？

What, Laura, do you say they have in common?

而且它们的集中度很高，我觉得大多数人和投资者都没意识到这一点。

Well, they're also very concentrated, and I think that that's something that most people, most investors don't appreciate.

这是因为投资者一直把目光紧紧盯着美股市场，而美股近年来表现确实非常出色。

And that's because investors have been so focused on The US market, and it's done incredibly well over recent years.

大家对美国股市带来的回报热情高涨，以至于他们愿意为买入台湾半导体——这家最大的新兴市场公司——支付比其在本地上市股价高出20%的溢价。

Investors are quite enthusiastic about US generated returns, and so much so, in fact, that they're willing to pay a 20 percent premium to buy Taiwan Semiconductor, the largest emerging market company, over its local listed line.

这意味着他们为了购买同一家公司在美股上市的版本，多掏了大约两千亿美元。

And that adds up to about $200,000,000,000 of extra money that they're forking out just to buy a US listed version of the same company.

美国市场，大多数投资者都知道，市场高度集中。

The US market, most investors will know, is highly concentrated.

这就是为什么我们今天总在谈论所谓的“科技七巨头”，以及按市值占比排名的前十大或前五十大公司。

It's why we talk so much today about the so called magnificent seven, but also top 10 companies by share of market cap or top 50.

你指出，新兴市场的集中首先体现在一个地理区域上，我记不清新兴市场有多少个市场了。

You point out that the concentration in emerging is, first of all, concentration in one geographical region of the I can't remember how how many markets or are there in Emerging

24个。

24.

四大洲的24个国家。

24 countries across four continents.

所以在这种情况下，能了解到指数价值的75%来自四个亚洲国家，这些国家是中国、中国台湾、韩国，但这些并不包括印度。

So in that context, it's it's really surprising to learn that 75% of index value comes from just four Asian countries, and those are Taiwan, China, India, Korea.

所以这是一方面的集中。

So that's one concentration.

还有其他类型的集中，也就是新兴市场股票市值最大的新兴股票在指数中所占比例最高，它们的在指数中的占比。

Then there's other concentration, which is the market capitalization of the largest emerging stocks, their share of the of the EM index.

请向听众解释一下这具体是怎么回事。

Will explain to listeners how that stands?

好的。

Yes.

目前，市值最大的十家公司占据了新兴市场指数26%的份额，这个比例和2020年中国股市崩盘前的水平基本持平。

So the 10 largest companies hold a 26% share of the Emerging Markets Index, and that's just about on par with twenty twenty levels prior to the Chinese market crash.

所以从公司规模的角度来看，这也是历史上最高的水平之一。

So it's about as high as it's ever been by company size as well.

而且集中度比美国稍微低一点。

And slightly lower than in The United States in terms of concentration.

不过我觉得你刚才提到，它比全球指数的整体集中度要高。

But I think you were saying that it's higher than for the overall World Index.

是这样吗？

Is that correct?

对。

Yes.

如果你看全球指数，它排除了新兴市场公司，但包含且主要由美国公司主导。实际上，当你把前五大新兴市场公司与主导全球指数的前五大美国公司相比时，前者的占比反而更高。

If you look at the World Index, which excludes emerging market companies, but includes and is dominated by US companies, the share of emerging market companies is actually higher when you look at the top five versus the top five American companies dominating the world index.

而在集中度方面，行业分布更是雪上加霜。

And then there's the icing on the cake in terms of concentration is sector.

听众们大概能猜到是哪个行业在主导吧。

And it probably won't surprise listeners to guess which sector is dominating.

没错。

Yes.

当然，是科技股。

Of course, technology.

科技板块在两个指数里都占了差不多四分之一，无论是全球指数还是新兴市场指数都是如此。

And technology comprises just about a quarter of both indices, so world as well as emerging markets.

那主要是台积电和中国的腾讯，还有哪些其他的新兴市场大牛股？

And that's Taiwan Semiconductor and Tencent, China's Tencent, and what are the other big emerging names?

我们看看全球指数里最大的五家公司，分别是英伟达、苹果、微软、亚马逊和Meta。

Well, we look at the five largest companies in the world index, that's NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.

这五家公司占了它们所在指数的18%。

Those have an 18% share of their index.

而在新兴市场，我们有五家亚洲科技公司，就是刚才提到的台积电、腾讯、三星、阿里巴巴和美团。

And then in Emerging Markets, we have five Asian technology related companies being Taiwan Semiconductor or TSMC, as we just mentioned, Tencent, Samsung, Alibaba, Meituan.

这些公司在他们各自的指数中占比更高，达到了21%。

And those hold an even higher 21% share of their index.

你们的新兴市场团队选择避开那些所谓的'大鱼'，也就是集中在科技领域且位于亚洲的大型股。

You in the Emerging Market teams have chosen to eschew what you call the big fish, these large cap stocks concentrated in technology and situated in Asia.

而你关注的则是那些所谓的‘小鱼’，它们游弋在各自不同的领域里。

And you're looking instead of what you call small fish that swim in, let us say, different oceans.

你能详细解释一下吗？

Can you explain that?

没错。

Exactly.

所以是的，我们感兴趣的是捕获最好的鱼，不管体型大小，也不管它们身处何地。

So yes, we're interested in catching the best fish, whatever size, and wherever they might be located.

不过，我们确实发现了一些特别有意思的机会，就是那些还没被大量资金涌入的领域。

However, we've seen especially interesting opportunities where capital has yet to crowd.

这些机会主要存在于一些规模较小的公司里，尤其是在新兴市场更长、更多样化的尾部区域，那里有一些非亚洲地区、也不专注科技领域的中小企业。

So those are in smaller companies and especially within longer and more diverse tail of emerging markets where there are smaller non Asian, non tech focused companies.

就像你刚才提到的南非和墨西哥。

Like, as you mentioned, South Africa and Mexico.

对，没错。

Yes, exactly.

我们对南非和墨西哥更有信心，同时也看好那些在较低资本投入下能实现更高回报的公司。

And we have greater comparative conviction in South Africa and Mexico, as well as in companies which have higher returns on lower investment needs.

你提到的一个很有意思的点，让我想起最近和你同事罗伯特·安斯蒂做的几期播客。他谈到美国中小盘股中的马拉松组合，这些股票的表现指标其实优于大盘，但估值相对更便宜。

So one of the interesting things you point out, and this actually reminds me of recent podcasts we did with your colleague, Robert Ansty, where he talks about the Marathon holdings among small mid caps in The US, where they actually have better performance metrics than the overall market, but are relatively cheaper.

所以能否从最宏观的角度，简单介绍一下马拉松在新兴市场方面的布局？包括国家配置权重，以及它们的回报率与资本支出情况。

So would just point out in most generalized terms, Marathon's emerging positioning, both in terms of country waiting and in terms of how their returns and how their capital spending looks?

当然可以。

Definitely.

从国家层面来看，我觉得我们对亚洲国家的配置相对偏低。不过像我之前提到的那些地方，还是有一些很不错的公司，我们也在持有。

So by country, I would say that we are comparatively underweight Asian countries, such as those which I mentioned before, still have some strong companies that we hold there as well.

相对而言，我们在墨西哥和南非的配置比例偏高。

And we are proportionally overweight to Mexico and South Africa.

这些就是后面我们会详细聊到的几个公司案例。

Those are a couple of the company examples that we'll get into later on.

至于马拉松基金这边看重的几个资本周期指标，我挑三个来说一下。

And in terms of some capital cycle metrics we look at here at Marathon, I'll mention three.

这些指标包括投入资本回报率、销售成本中的资本支出占比，以及企业价值中的资本支出占比。

Those are return on invested capital, capital expenditure to sales, and capital expenditure to enterprise value.

在这三项指标上，我们认为我们的投资组合相对于大盘具有更优的定位。

So on those three metrics, our portfolio, we think, is more attractively positioned relative to the index.

如果你看我们前十大新兴市场持仓，它们的平均投入资本回报率为16%，高于大盘的14%。

So if you look at our top 10 emerging market holdings, those have a 16% average return on invested capital, which is above the index is 14%.

另外，从资本支出占销售额的比例来看，我们前十大持仓的水平大约是大盘的一半，即11%对比21%。

As well, looking at capital expenditure to sales, our top 10 holdings have about half the level of the index, 11% versus their 21.

最后，资本支出占企业价值的比例也低得多，我们的组合是2%，而指数是5%。

And finally, CapEx to enterprise value is also much lower, 2% versus the index is five.

劳拉，你在文章中提到了三家小型公司，它们展示了你目前看好的机会类型。

And, Laura, you highlight three little fish in your piece that show the type of opportunities that you find attractive today.

我们待会儿会具体聊聊这些公司。

Before we we'll we'll talk about the individual companies a bit later.

那这些公司有什么共同点呢？

What do these companies have have in common?

对。

Yes.

这里有三只小市值的股票，分别是AVI、Guruma和Bidcorp。这三家公司的公司治理都很强，盈利能力高，资本需求低，而且估值很有吸引力。

So there's three little fish called AVI, Guruma, Bidcorp, And all three of these have strong governance, high profitability, low capital requirements, and are attractively valued.

你这里有一张表，显示你提到的三只新兴市场股票净资产收益率达到29%，而新兴市场的大盘股平均ROE只有18%。不过，这些小市值股票的市盈率是16倍，相比之下大盘股的市盈率是20倍。

You have a table here that shows that your three EM stocks you mentioned have 29% return on equity against the big fish in emerging markets having an 18% average ROE, and yet your little fish are valued at 16 times earnings as opposed to 20 times earnings for the big fish.

所以这非常清楚地展示了市场按规模分化的情况：尽管大盘股并不总能带来更高的净资产收益率，但它们仍然吸引了更多的投资者关注。

So that gives a pretty clear picture, again, of this bifurcation of markets by size with large cap stocks attracting more investor interest despite not always earning higher returns on on equity.

那再多讲讲你的这些‘小鱼’吧。

So tell me a bit more about your little fish.

咱们一个一个详细说说它们具体是做什么的。

Let let's describe in detail one by one what they do.

我们先从 AVI 开始。

We'll start with AVI.

AVI 在南非拥有高端的饮料、零食、服装和个人护理品牌组合。

So AVI owns a premium portfolio of beverage, snack, apparel, and personal care brands across South Africa.

它最著名的产品是茶和饼干，所以业务模式比较简单，也容易理解，但运营起来并不容易。

Its best known products are tea and biscuits, so it's quite a simple business and an easy to understand one, but not an easy one to operate.

另外两家呢？

And what are the other two?

接下来是Guruma，它是全球最大的玉米饼和玉米粉生产商。

And next we have Grooma, which is the world's largest tortilla and cornflour producer.

其实早在大约七十五年前，它就开创了工业化的玉米饼生产，至今仍然沿用源自墨西哥、拥有数百年历史的传统纳巴玛化（nixtamalization）生产工艺。

It was actually responsible for pioneering industrial tortilla production about seventy five years ago, and it still uses the centuries old traditional nixtamalization production process from its native Mexico.

最后一家是另一家南非公司Bidcorp。虽然它由南非人主导，但其实是一个在全球范围内运营的食品分销连锁集团。

Finally, we have another South African company, Bidcorp, which is South African stewarded, however quite a global group of food distribution franchises.

它在建立市场密度和赢得信任方面拥有三十年的经验，因此处于一个独特的位置：能够引领并汲取来自不同地理区域的经验教训。尽管整个行业的进入门槛相对较低，但这种能力是很难复制的。

It has three decades of experience in establishing densities and trust and finds itself in the unique position of leading and learning from several distinct geographies, which is something that's quite difficult to replicate despite there being relatively low entry barriers to the industry in general.

马拉松基金在资本周期策略中，往往会关注管理层利益是否与外部投资者保持一致。

And one of the things that Marathon's capital cycle approach tends to focus on is whether managers' interests are aligned with outside investors.

你认为这三家公司就符合这一标准。

And you think that's the case with these three companies.

没错。

Definitely.

确实如此。

Definitely.

像 AVI、Guruma 和 Bidcorp 这几家，它们的核心管理层都在公司深耕了二十多年，而且很多人还和我们一样持有股份。

So for AVI, Gruma, and Bidcorp, their key leaders have been involved with the business for more than two decades each, and many are invested alongside us as shareholders.

那我们先从 Guruma 说起吧。

So maybe to start with Guruma.

古鲁马创始人的儿子如今是该公司最大的股东。

The son of Guruma's founder is the company's largest shareholder today.

他在2012年接手公司管理，此后显著增强了古鲁马的资产负债表，并大幅提升了其基础现金流生成能力。

He assumed leadership of the business in 2012, and he's bolstered Guruma's balance sheet and improved its underlying cash flow generation quite significantly since.

在过去五年里，随着股价下跌，他回购了超过10%的公司股份。

And over the most recent five years, he's repurchased more than 10% of the company's share count as the share price has fallen.

最后再说说AVI。

Finally, AVI as well.

AVI的首席执行官执掌公司将近二十年，这非常了不起。

AVI's CEO has led the company for nearly twenty years, which is quite impressive.

更重要的是，他在一个规模不大且有时充满挑战的市场中，成功经营着一家现金流充沛的企业。

Importantly, he's been the steward of a very cash generative business and in a small and sometimes challenging market.

因此，他坚持只投资内部收益率超过20%的项目，这一策略带来了丰厚的回报。

So his decision to only pursue investments above a 20% internal hurdle rate has been something that's really paid off.

Bidcorp的首席执行官和首席财务官在2016年协助将其从母公司剥离出来。

Bid Corp's CEO and CFO helped spin it off from its parent company in 2016.

在那之前，他们一起共事了十多年。

And before that, they worked together for more than a decade.

他们一直保持着PID Corp稳健的资产负债表，并通过以合理价格进行小规模收购来优化资产密度，正如我之前提到的，这对提升其投资价值非常关键。

They've kept PID Corp's balance sheet and shaped to enhance its densities, which, as I mentioned before, are quite important to its value proposition through small acquisitions at fair prices.

你说这三家公司都能在控制资本支出的情况下实现相对强劲的增长。

And you say that all three of these companies are able to experience relatively strong growth despite controlling their capital spending.

没错，确实如此。

Yes, exactly.

所以，尽管资本支出只占销售额的3%左右，AVI在过去二十年里一直保持着高且稳定的投入资本回报率，平均达到了24%，是南非同行收益率的两倍。

So despite spending only about 3% of its sales on CapEx, AVI has been able to generate high and consistent returns on invested capital over the past two decades, actually averaging about 24%, which is twice the rate that its peers in South Africa have generated.

跟那些同行相比，它在品牌建设上的投入更多，避免了在非洲进行一些难以捉摸的收购驱动型增长，还留出了充足的现金。

Relative to those peers, it's also invested more behind its brands, and it's avoided some more elusive acquisition led growth across Africa and had cash to spare.

考虑到找不到超过我之前提到的门槛收益率的投资机会，它实际上只是把这笔现金返还给了股东，这一举措效果相当不错。

Acknowledging a lack of reinvestment returns above that hurdle that I mentioned earlier, it actually just returned this cash to shareholders, which has paid off quite well.

因此，在过去二十年里，ABI的年化总回报率约为11%（以美元计），超过了刚才提到的当地同行，也跑赢了新兴市场整体7%的水平。

So over twenty years, ABI's annualized total returns have been about 11% in US dollars, which has outpaced those local peers I mentioned, as well as the broader Emerging Markets' 7%.

那古鲁马的资本周期情况是怎样的呢？

And how does the capital cycle look at Guruma, for instance?

以古鲁马为例，其创始家族掌控者实际上做得非常出色，他们将国内主导业务产生的现金流重新投资于海外，并获得了很高的增量回报率。

So looking at Guruma, Guruma's founding family controllers have actually done a really good job of reinvesting the cash flows that its dominant domestic business have generated abroad at high incremental rates of return.

在美国，

In The U.

它已经在利润率较高的零售渠道中确立了非常强势的地位和知名品牌。

S, it's been able to establish quite a dominant position and dominant brand in the higher margin retail channel.

它的Mission Tortillas，也就是Mission品牌，市场份额是紧随其后的竞争对手的四倍。

Its Mission Tortillas, the Mission brand, have garnered quadruple the market share of its next closest competitor.

这些品牌带来的更高利润，让它有更多资金去巩固品牌实力、提升定价能力和营销领先地位，这在我看来形成了一个良性循环。

And the higher margins that these garner have enabled it to spend more on renewing its brand strength and extending its pricing power and its marketing leadership in what I would see as a bit of a virtuous cycle.

那Bid Corp呢？

And Bid Corp?

Bid Corp拥有竞争优势，因为它是几个市场中分散的食品供应链和餐饮服务行业之间关键的连接纽带。

Bid Corp has a competitive advantage because it's the critical connector of the fragmented food supply and food service industries in several markets.

所以在澳大利亚、新西兰、捷克、比利时、波兰以及其本土市场南非，它都占据着市场份额第一的位置。

So it holds the number one market share in Australia, New Zealand, Czech Republic, Belgium, Poland, and its home initial market of South Africa.

它以提供各类对时间和温度敏感的产品而闻名，是其中最可靠且最具成本效益的供应商。

It's known for being the most reliable and cost effective supplier of a wide range of time and temperature sensitive products.

它能保证在30分钟内完成90%客户的配送，这点非常重要，因为作为食品供应商或接收方，时效性很关键。Bid Corp运输的产品中，有三分之二都是冷冻或冷藏的。

It's relied on as being within thirty minutes delivery time for 90% of its customers, which is quite important when you're a food supplier or food recipient because two thirds of the products that Bid Corp transports are either frozen or chilled.

最近我们和Bid Corp的首席财务官聊过，他解释了该公司选择性自采模式的重要性，这种模式帮助他们削减了那些小型竞争对手根本无力承担的成本。

Most recently, we spoke with Bid Corp's CFO and he explained the importance of Bid Corp's selective self sourcing model, which enables them to cut out costs which their smaller competitors simply can't afford to.

而且当它们能维持这些产品的定价权时，这在低利润行业中就是一种非常有力的策略。

And when they then maintain pricing power for these products, it's a powerful strategy in a low margin industry.

有趣的是，这些管理良好、回报率高且似乎都有护城河保护的企业，估值却相对便宜。

What's interesting is that these well managed high return businesses, all of which appear to have moats protecting their businesses, are relatively cheap.

确实如此。

Yes.

所以尽管它们的净资产收益率更高，但如果按市盈率来看，这些小公司的估值比大公司足足折价了20%以上。

So despite their higher ROEs, the little fish are valued at more than a 20% discount to the big fish if we look at them on a price to earnings basis.

马拉松基金很幸运，在ABI股价低迷、市盈率只有17倍左右的时候进行了投资。

Marathon was fortunate enough to invest in ABI when it was on sale at a Decatur low PE of about 17 times.

我们认为它的股票被冷落，仅仅是因为它是一家小型南非公司，投资者需要跳出主流指数才能发现它。

And we believe its shares have been neglected simply because it's a small South African company, which one needs to look beyond the index to find.

另一方面，Gruma从分部加总估值来看似乎被低估了。

Gruma, on the other hand, appears undervalued on a sum of the parts basis.

所以我之前提到过，它在美國市场拥有非常强势的地位。

So I mentioned earlier that it has a very strong position in The US market.

按我保守的估算，这家公司的企业价值与销售额之比值得达到1.5倍，换算成股价大概是每股17美元。

On my conservative estimates, this business is worthy of one and a half times enterprise value to sales multiple, which would be about $17 per share.

从这个角度看，市场似乎对它在本土墨西哥市场的龙头地位，以及在欧洲和亚洲一些虽规模较小但仍是市场领先的位置，给予了非常有限的估值。

And looking at that, the market seems to ascribe very limited value to the market leading businesses it has in its initial market of Mexico, as well as some smaller but still market leading positions in Europe and Asia.

最后再来看看Bid Corp。

And then finally, BitCorp.

澳大利亚和新西兰是Bid Corp最大、最盈利的市场，但它们拥有的独立餐厅基础其实比美国更加分散，而美国才是全球最大分销商Sysco（听众可能听说过）的主战场。

So Australia and New Zealand, which are Bid Corp's largest and most profitable markets, are actually home to a more fragmented, independent, and ultimately profitable restaurant base than America, which is where the world's largest distributor, which listeners may have heard of, called Sysco, calls its main market.

不过，Bidcorp的估值倍数偏低，尽管它的利润率表现更优。

Bidcorp is, however, valued on a lower multiple of its superior margin profile.

这也许只是因为投资者对它一视同仁，把它看作南非版的思科，而忽略了它可能具备的一些更优越的特质。

This might simply be because investors paint it with a broad brush and see it as a South African Cisco when it might have some superior characteristics.

部分原因是目前新兴市场被冷落，资金都流向了占主导地位的美国市场。

In part because emerging at the moment is being neglected in favor of the dominant US market.

你提到的这些新兴市场小公司的吸引力在于，它们正如你所说的那样，在雷达盲区中游弋，不被大众关注。

The attraction of your little emerging market fish is that they swim, as you say, under the radar.

对。

Yes.

而且我觉得，在新兴市场里，确实有一些非常有趣的、关于供给侧的故事案例。

And I think there are some really, really interesting niche examples of supply side stories in emerging markets.

另外，它们的回报主要来自基本面改善，而不是股价上涨。

Also, of their returns have been generated from fundamentals as opposed to share price appreciation.

所以这些回报是实打实挣来的，正如我们认为可持续的回报理应如此。

So they've been hard won, so to speak, as we believe sustainable returns should be.

而且，正如你提到的，它们也避开了那些大型同行所受到的追捧，无论是在新兴市场还是在美国。

They've also, as you mentioned, evaded some of the enthusiasm of their larger peers, both within Emerging Markets and in The United States.

这意味着它们的估值比竞争对手低，而且从长远来看可能更具韧性。

So this means that they've attracted both lower valuations for your competitors, and they might be resilient for the long term.

就像我一开始说的，在2000年的时候，新兴市场的估值相对于美国市场来说非常便宜。

As I said at the beginning, emerging was extremely cheap relative to The US market back in 2000.

在接下来的十年里，新兴市场实现了每年10%的实际回报率。

Over the following ten years, emerging delivered 10% real per annum.

美国市场表现持平。

The US market was flat.

我不是说历史会重演。

I'm not saying that history is going to repeat itself.

只是我们正处在类似的阶段，新兴市场目前不太受青睐，因此提供了一些非常有趣的机会。

It's just that we're at a similar moment in which emerging looks to be out of favor and therefore offering some very interesting opportunities.

好的，谢谢劳拉，我很享受这次谈话，期待下次再和你交流。

Well, thank you, Laura, and I've enjoyed this talk and look forward to speaking to you again.

非常感谢，爱德华。

Thanks very much, Edward.

感谢你今天抽出时间。

Thank you for your time today.

希望大家能收听下一期的《资本周期》。

I hope you will listen to the next edition of the Capital Cycle.

本通讯仅供参考。

This communication is provided for information purposes only.

更多信息，包括重要披露，请参阅马拉松网站及《全球投资评论》。

Please refer to Marathon's website and the Global Investment Reviews for further information, including important disclosures.