The Capital Cycle Podcast - Mucky Business 封面

Mucky Business

Mucky Business

本集简介

Waste management can be a highly lucrative endeavour. Edward Chancellor talks to Robert Anstey, a North American Portfolio Manager. For more information, or to access select articles from Marathon’s Global Investment Review publications which accompany this podcast series, please visit www.thecapitalcycle.co.uk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Speaker 0

大家好,欢迎收听本期《资本周期》播客。

Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Cap Cycle podcast.

Speaker 0

今天请到的是马拉松资产管理公司的美国投资组合经理罗布·安斯蒂。

I've got with me today Rob Anstey, who's a US portfolio manager at Marathon.

Speaker 0

罗布,我们要聊的是你写过的一个投资机会,这个公司专门清理和处理加拿大石油工业产生的废物。

And we're going to talk, Rob, about an investment opportunity you've written about that's in the business of cleaning up and disposing of waste from Canada's oil industry.

Speaker 0

我觉得这个话题有意思,是因为它符合马拉松的几个投资主题。

Why I thought it'd be interesting to talk about this piece is that it fits with several Marathon investment themes.

Speaker 0

第一个主题是马拉松的投资组合目前正偏向小盘股,而减少对美国和全球市场指数中占主导地位的大盘股的配置。

And the first is the current tilting of Marathon's portfolios towards smaller caps and away from the large caps that dominate both The US and the Global Market Index.

Speaker 0

还有一个长期主题是投资那些具有强大竞争优势的周期性企业,也就是所谓的“优质周期股”。

And there's also been a long standing Marathon theme to invest in cyclical businesses that have strong competitive advantages, what are sometimes called quality cyclicals.

Speaker 0

我们要聊的这只股票正好符合这个条件。

And the stock we're going to talk about fulfills the bill.

Speaker 0

另外,马拉松还有一个更长期的主题,就是投资那些无聊、不起眼、甚至有些肮脏的行业,比如疏浚业,但这些行业往往能带来最好的投资回报,而那些时髦的成长股,比如现在的人工智能,从长期来看,虽然过去十五年可能表现不错,但历史上往往令人失望。

And then there's an even longer standing theme in Marathon, to invest in businesses that are boring, unglamorous, and sometimes outright dirty, think dredging, but they often provide the best investments, whereas fashionable growth stocks, possibly AI today, have historically, over the very long period, if not over the last fifteen years, have disappointed.

Speaker 0

那么,罗伯,我们从一个古老的约克郡谚语开始吧,你引用的那句:有污垢的地方就有钱。

So let's start, Rob, with the old Yorkshire proverb that you cite, where there's muck, there's brass.

Speaker 1

你知道吗,我觉得你说得完全对,那些无聊、不起眼的生意。

You know, I think you're absolutely right about the boring, unglamorous businesses.

Speaker 1

我经常觉得,在这些领域里能找到最好的投资机会。

I've often felt that you can find the best investments in those areas.

Speaker 1

而且实际上,关于资本周期,当然,资本通常不会自然地去追逐那些无聊、不起眼的生意。

And actually with regards to the capital cycle, of course, capital doesn't tend naturally to chase after boring, unglamorous businesses.

Speaker 1

它更可能去追逐那些时髦的投资。

It's much more likely to chase after those fashionable investments.

Speaker 1

所以我觉得你说得对。

So I think you're right.

Speaker 0

而且我认为,从历史上看,这就是为什么价值投资能带来比增长投资更高的回报,因为价值投资不引人注目,因此不会吸引大量资本,价值投资在其他条件相同的情况下,交易价格低于账面价值,而增长投资则高于账面价值。

And I think, I mean, that's historically why value has delivered superior returns to growth, is that value was unglamorous and therefore not attracting huge amounts of capital, value was everything else being equal trading below book, growth was trading above books.

Speaker 0

所以我一直觉得,增长和价值的这种对立,很大程度上可以用资本周期的动态来解释。

So I've always thought that the growth value dichotomy could largely be explained by the capital cycle dynamics.

Speaker 0

现在让我们回到垃圾这个话题。是的。

And now let's get back to waste Yes.

Speaker 0

而且

And

Speaker 1

在美国,市政垃圾处理公司的股票在过去十到十五年甚至更长时间里表现非常出色。

In America, the municipal waste stocks have had stellar returns over the last ten, fifteen plus years.

Speaker 1

如今它们的市盈率很高,所以我觉得这完全不是一个被忽视的故事。

They trade on very high multiples today, so I don't think this is it's not an unrecognized story at all.

Speaker 1

然后当你开始思考为什么它们一直是如此有吸引力的投资时,它们一直是收益和现金流的惊人复利机器。

And then when you start to think about why have they been such attractive investments, they've been phenomenal compounders of earnings and cash flow.

Speaker 1

我把这主要归因于两点。

I put that down mainly to two things.

Speaker 1

一是它们拥有定价权。

One is they've had pricing power.

Speaker 1

所以如果你看看垃圾处理的价格,它长期远超通货膨胀。

So if you look at waste disposal pricing, it's far outpaced out inflation over a long period.

Speaker 1

然后还有就是行业整合。

And then also it's been industry consolidation.

Speaker 1

所以这些公司基本上是以低于自身估值的价格收购较小的废物处理公司,有点像用杠杆收购的方式。

So you've had these companies which have basically bought smaller waste companies at lower multiples than their own and using sort of bootstrapping.

Speaker 1

然后他们把这些资产整合进来,提高了他们的路线密度。

They've then taken those assets and filled out their root densities.

Speaker 1

所以你有固定的资产网络,比如垃圾填埋场和处理场,然后你可以通过提高收集效率来大幅提升路线密度,从而改善利润率。

So you've got a fixed asset network of landfills and disposal sites, and then you can improve that root density a lot with your collections and improves your margins.

Speaker 1

所以基本上就是这样。

And so really, that's it.

Speaker 1

其实就是这两点。

It's those two things, really.

Speaker 1

就是定价权和通过整合带来的利润率提升。

It's been pricing power and an improvement in margins through consolidation.

Speaker 0

你说他们能够带来强劲的回报,

And you say that they've been able to deliver strong returns

Speaker 1

是的,而且很好。

Yeah, and great.

Speaker 0

即使他们的营收增长一直不佳,对投资者来说也是如此。

To investors even though their top line revenue growth has been lacking.

Speaker 1

嗯,不,因为定价,营收增长一直很强劲。

Well, no, revenue growth has been strong because of the pricing.

Speaker 1

我觉得有趣的是,如果你看销量增长,实际上在过去二十年里,实际废物量的增长一直相当疲软,每年大约1%。

What I found interesting is if you look at volume growth, actually over the last twenty years, volume growth in terms of actual waste volumes have been kind of pretty anemic, like 1% a year.

Speaker 1

如果你回到更早的时期,比如从1960年代到1990年代,实际上废物量增长得更快,因为消费增长更快,人们购买了大量的一次性产品。

Now, if you went back to an earlier period, so from say the 1960s to 1990s, actually waste volumes grew quite a bit faster and that was consumption growth was quicker, people were buying a lot more disposable products.

Speaker 1

而在过去二十年里,我认为发生的情况,你想想看,完全合理,就是我们用了很多纸,所以那部分减少了。

Whereas in the last twenty years, I think what's happened, and if you think about it, it makes total sense, is we use a lot as paper, so that's diminished.

Speaker 1

我们被鼓励回收,有经济激励去减少消费。

We've been encouraged to recycle, been economic incentives to consume less.

Speaker 1

而且在那段时间里,消费模式也更倾向于购买大件商品。

And spending patterns have tended more towards larger ticket items as well over that period.

Speaker 1

所以实际上,自世纪之交以来,美国的垃圾量每年只增长约百分之一。

So actually waste volumes in The US have only grown at about a percent a year since the turn of the century.

Speaker 1

所以这些公司令人难以置信的复利增长并不是靠量的增长,而是靠定价权和整合。

So actually the incredible compounding these companies have had has not been through volume growth, it's been through pricing power and consolidation.

Speaker 0

还有高回报。

And high returns

Speaker 1

对,还有高资本回报率。

on And high returns on capital.

Speaker 1

所以如果你现在只看其中几家,Republic Services和Waste Connections可能是运营最好的。

And so if you look at just a couple of them now, Republic Services and Waste Connections are probably the best operators.

Speaker 1

它们的市盈率在30多倍,企业价值与EBITDA的比率大约是18倍。

They trade on PE multiples in the 30s and EV to EBITDA about 18 times.

Speaker 1

所以,就像我说的,它们并不是不被认可的。

So as I say, they're not unrecognized.

Speaker 0

那我们谈谈你最近投资的加拿大垃圾处理业务吧。

So let's talk about the Canadian waste business that you've recently invested in.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

我投资了一家叫Secure Waste Infrastructure的小公司。

I've invested in this small company called Secure Waste Infrastructure.

Speaker 1

它的市值大约是35亿加元。

Its market cap is about 3,500,000,000 Canadian.

Speaker 1

他们基本上有一个由转运站、处理设施、填埋场等组成的网络,处理来自加拿大能源行业,也就是石油和天然气行业的废物。

They essentially have a network of transfer sites, disposal facilities, landfills, and so on that process waste from the energy sector, so from the oil and gas sector in Canada.

Speaker 1

他们确实建成了这个网络。

And they've really built out this network.

Speaker 1

这个网络是花了两三十年才建成的。

It's been built out over two or three decades.

Speaker 1

他们在能源废物处理方面大约有70%的市场份额。

They have about 70% market share of energy waste disposal.

Speaker 1

所以大多数能源生产商实际上把固体废物处理外包出去。

So most energy producers actually outsource solid waste disposal.

Speaker 1

然后他们在水处理方面大约占有30%的市场份额。

And then they have around 30% share of water disposal.

Speaker 1

大多数能源生产商自己处理水,因为他们通常在钻井现场附近有水源井。

Most energy producers actually do the water disposal themselves because they'll often have a water well next to their drill site.

Speaker 1

所以他们在废物处理方面占据主导地位。

So they've got a dominant position in waste disposal.

Speaker 1

我觉得这很有吸引力。

I found that quite attractive.

Speaker 0

你说得对,就像北美市政废物处理公司一样,Secure有很强的进入壁垒。

And you say that like the North American municipal waste companies, Secure has very strong barriers to entry.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 1

而且我认为建立这个资产网络花了很长时间。

And I think it's taken a long time to build out this network of assets.

Speaker 1

所以一个新的处理设施大约需要5000万美元,而且我相信自2016年以来就没有新建过设施,这本身就很有意思。

So a new disposal facility would cost in the region of $50,000,000 And I believe that there hasn't been a new facility built since around 2016, which I think is interesting in and of itself.

Speaker 1

这家公司把所有主要的能源生产商都当作客户。

And this company counts all the major energy producers as its customers.

Speaker 0

这家公司是怎么运营的?

How does the business operate?

Speaker 1

是这样的,如果你想想钻一口油井或气井以及它的整个生命周期,最初钻井时和井的寿命结束时,通常会产生很多固体废物。

What will happen is if you think about drilling an oil well or a gas well and the life of that, you'll tend to have a lot of solid waste when you first drill the initial well and also at the end of life of the well.

Speaker 1

有意思的是,水的量会随着井的寿命增加而增加。

Interestingly, water tends to increase across the life of the well.

Speaker 1

所以废水在整个井的生命周期中都会产生。

So wastewater is created throughout the life of the well.

Speaker 1

基本上,固体废物,或者说是泥浆状的废物,会通过真空卡车或管道运到公司的设施。

But basically the solid waste will arrive, well either solid or sort of slurry, will arrive at the company's facilities either on a vacuum truck or through pipeline.

Speaker 1

然后,如果是固体废物,公司通常会把它送到垃圾填埋场。

And then the company will if it's solid waste, it will tend to go to landfill.

Speaker 1

如果是泥浆状的,公司会用一些化学品把污泥和油分离开。

If it's a sort of slurry, the company has kind of chemicals where they will separate out the sludge from the oil.

Speaker 1

然后那些油实际上会再卖回市场。

And then actually that oil is then resold to the market.

Speaker 1

所以这个业务有一种很好的循环性。

So there's quite a nice kind of circularity about that business.

Speaker 1

至于水,要么通过深井注入来处理。

And then for water, it's either disposed of through deep well injection.

Speaker 1

理想情况下,如果公司能拿到水处理合同,就会从井场建一条管道。

Ideally, if the company can get a water contract, it will build a pipeline from the well site.

Speaker 1

这样就和客户在水处理上绑定了。

So it becomes wedded to the customer for that water disposal.

Speaker 1

如果能做到这一点,那就很有吸引力了。

If they can get that, that's quite attractive.

Speaker 1

我觉得关键的一点是,如果你考虑废物流,大约80%的废物流是与生产相关的。

One key point, I think, is that if you think about the waste streams, about 80% of those waste streams are production related.

Speaker 1

也就是说,不管大宗商品价格如何,这些公司都会在任何油价或气价水平上继续生产油气。

So in other words, irrespective of what the commodity prices are doing, these companies are still producing oil and gas at any level of oil and gas price.

Speaker 1

所以实际上,废物的产生是源源不断的。

So actually there's a continuous stream of waste.

Speaker 1

然后大约20%与钻新井或完井有关。

And then about 20% would be related to drilling new wells or completions.

Speaker 1

所以这部分会有周期性,因为显然如果油价低,你就不会去钻新井。

So that part of it will be cyclical because obviously if the oil price is low, you're not going to drill a new well,

Speaker 0

Rob,给我们讲讲这家公司的历史吧。

Rob, tell us a bit about the company's history.

Speaker 1

我觉得这在一定程度上引起了我的注意,因为这家公司的历史相当曲折,有点像资本周期的下半段。

I think this is what in a way raised my antennae when I was meeting with this company because there's a quite a checkered history, and it's a little bit like thinking about the bottom half of the capital cycle.

Speaker 1

把时间拉回到大约三十年前,最初有一家公司叫Canadian Crude Separators,后来变成了CCS Income Trust。

And take you back sort of thirty years, Originally, was a company called Canadian Crude Separators, which became CCS Income Trust.

Speaker 1

这家公司在90年代到2000年代初是明星股,是个出色的复利机器,以至于《环球邮报》在2005年左右说,它是加拿大所有投资中表现最好的之一。

And this was a stellar stock in the 1990s through the early 2000s, a stellar compounder, So much so that The Globe and Mail in sort of mid-2000s said, it's one of the best sort of track records of performance of any investment in Canada.

Speaker 1

总之,大约在2007年,公司的创始人决定将其私有化,而且他用了70%的债务来完成这件事。

Anyway, in about 2007, the founder of the company decided to take it private, and he did that using 70% debt.

Speaker 1

不幸的是,事后看来当然很清楚了,但我们当时知道这是金融危机的前夜。

And unfortunately, of course, hindsight's a wonderful thing, but we knew this was the eve of the great financial crisis.

Speaker 1

确实,从那以后它就再也没恢复过来。

Really, it never recovered from that.

Speaker 1

后来它通过与一家叫NuAlta的公司合并重新上市,这家公司我听说过。

It then sort of came public again through a merger with a company called NuAlta, which I had heard of.

Speaker 1

那时它叫Tervita。

By then it was called Tervita.

Speaker 1

所以Tervita和NuAlta合并了,但NuAlta本身,我觉得负债相当高。

And so Tervita and NuAlta merged, but NuAlta itself, I think was quite heavily leveraged.

Speaker 1

所以债务太多了。

So it was too much debt.

Speaker 1

然后在2021年,当时叫Secure Energy Services的公司出手,收购了Tervita的资产。

And it was then in 2021, what was then called Secure Energy Services pounced and bought the assets of Tervita in 2021.

Speaker 1

他们为这些资产支付了14亿美元。

They paid $1,400,000,000 for those assets.

Speaker 0

你说这后来引起了当局的反垄断调查?

And you say then that attracted antitrust action from the authorities?

Speaker 1

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 1

我觉得当竞争局开始关注你的业务,说‘等一下’的时候,你就知道你做对了。

I think you know that you're onto a good thing when the Competition Bureau starts to look at your business and say, hold on a sec.

Speaker 1

所以,是的,在2021年6月,加拿大竞争局试图阻止这项收购。

So, yeah, in June 2021, the Canadian Competition Bureau sought to block the acquisition.

Speaker 1

他们说,Secure Energy Services和Tervita是最大的两家供应商,在许多地区甚至是唯一的废物处理服务供应商,服务于加拿大西部的石油和天然气公司。

And they said that basically Secure Energy Services and Tervita are the two largest suppliers, and in many areas, the only suppliers of waste services, the oil and gas companies in Western Canada.

Speaker 1

因此,竞争局担心这可能会导致价格上涨和服务质量下降。

And so the bureau was worried that that would likely result in higher pricing and a loss in quality of service.

Speaker 1

他们这么想,本身就说明了这门生意的性质。

The fact that they thought that tells you something about the business.

Speaker 0

你说财务报表低估了这项业务的实际盈利能力。

You say that the financials understate the underlying profitability of the business.

Speaker 1

所以我觉得如果你只是用彭博终端查这家公司,会看到它有100亿美元的收入和4%的利润率。

So I think if you were just to do a Bloomberg screen on this company, it shows up as having $10,000,000,000 of revenues and a 4% profit margin.

Speaker 1

但这些数字其实很有误导性,因为那100亿里有85到90亿基本上来自公司的基础设施业务。

Well, those are basically very misleading numbers because 8.5 to nine of that 10 is basically related to the company's infrastructure business.

Speaker 1

它有三条管道。

So it has three pipelines.

Speaker 1

这部分大约占业务的四分之一。

It's about a quarter of the business.

Speaker 1

它的运作方式是,必须从客户那里购买石油,然后汇集起来通过管道输送,最后再把石油卖回去。

And what it does is it is required to purchase oil from customers, which it then aggregates and moves through those pipelines, and then the oil is then sold back to at the end.

Speaker 1

所以基本上就是过手生意。

So basically, it's a pass through.

Speaker 1

他们真正关心的是通过管道的石油量,这对他们来说其实非常赚钱。

What they care about is the volume of oil moving through the pipelines, which is actually incredibly profitable for them.

Speaker 1

但实际上,真正需要关注的数据是,这个核心的废物处理业务,收入大约在15亿加元,EBITDA利润率是32%。

But in fact, the numbers to really focus on are that this underlying waste processing business, you're looking at revenues in the region of 1,500,000,000 Canadian with 32% EBITDA margins.

Speaker 1

但我想回到那段历史和资本配置上。

But I wanna just go back to that history and capital allocation.

Speaker 1

这大概是我见过的最非凡的资本配置案例之一。

This is one of the most extraordinary examples of capital allocation I think I've ever seen.

Speaker 1

还记得我说过他们为这些资产支付了14亿加元吧。

Recall I said they paid $1,400,000,000 for these assets.

Speaker 1

果然,两年后竞争局出来干预,竞争法庭说,你们得剥离部分资产。

Sure enough, after the Competition Bureau came out two years later, the Competition Tribunal said, We want you to divest some of those assets.

Speaker 1

他们被迫把29个设施卖给了Waste Connections,那是一家市政垃圾处理公司。

And they were forced to sell 29 facilities to Waste Connections, one of the municipal waste companies.

Speaker 1

而Waste Connections在2024年初为这29个设施支付了11亿加元。

And Waste Connections, this was at the start of 2024, paid $1,100,000,000 for those 29 facilities.

Speaker 1

在那两年间,Secure Waste实际上已经赚到了1.1亿和1.4亿之间的差额利润。

Now in that intervening two year period, Secure Waste had actually generated the difference between the 1.1 and the 1.4 in profits.

Speaker 1

所以实际上,他们相当于免费得到了原来70%的资产。

So effectively, they ended up with 70% of the original asset base for free.

Speaker 1

不仅如此,他们在此期间产生的利润和现金流,加上Waste Connections支付的钱,他们回购了四分之一的股票。

Not only that, the profits and cash flow they generated in the interim and the money that Waste Connections paid them, they bought back a quarter of their stock.

Speaker 0

而市场还没有意识到

And the market hasn't recognized

Speaker 1

这一点?

this?

Speaker 1

股价因此上涨了不少。

The shares have gone up quite a lot on the back of it.

Speaker 1

但如果你仔细想想,这是一家相对较新的公司。

But this is a relatively new company if you think about it.

Speaker 1

它实际上是在2021年通过这次合并才真正形成的。

It was really only formed as it is now through this merger in 2021.

Speaker 1

当时叫Secure Energy Services。

It was called Secure Energy Services.

Speaker 1

直到今年年初才改名为Secure Waste Infrastructure,试图强调这是一家废物处理企业。

It's only at the start of this year changed its name to Secure Waste Infrastructure to sort of try and highlight that this is a waste processing business.

Speaker 1

所以我觉得,除非你是加拿大的专业人士,否则这在很多方面都是一个不太受关注、相对较新的废物处理业务,到目前为止主要被石油服务分析师关注。

So I think in many ways, this is a sort of unless you're a Canadian specialist, this is kind of an under the radar relatively new waste processing business that up until now has been followed mainly by oil service analysts.

Speaker 0

那么罗伯,我能问你关于这项投资的风险吗?

So can I ask you, Rob, about the risk to this investment?

Speaker 0

前英国央行行长马克·卡尼现在是加拿大总理。

Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney is now Canadian prime minister.

Speaker 0

你还记得吗,在离开英国央行和到加拿大担任总理之间,马克·卡尼到处警告投资者和银行不要投资碳氢化合物业务或相关业务,因为随着不可避免地向净零排放迈进,这些资产将会搁浅。

If you remember, between leaving the Bank of England and landing his job in Canada running the country, Mark Carney was going around warning investors and banks not to invest in hydrocarbon businesses or related businesses because they would be stranded assets in the inevitable inexorable move towards net zero.

Speaker 0

那么,这个业务在未来几年有没有可能枯竭,或者说你如何看待这种长期业务流?

So is there a risk that this business dries up, so to speak, in the coming years, or how do you see this sort of long term business flow?

Speaker 1

我认为风险有两方面。

I think the risks are twofold in my mind.

Speaker 1

一个风险是这些废物流比市政废物公司更具周期性。

So one risk is that these waste streams are more cyclical than, for example, the municipal waste companies.

Speaker 1

实际上,如果你看看加拿大的石油产量,三十年来每年大约增长3%。

Now, in actual fact, if you look at the volumes of oil production coming out of Canada, it's been about 3% a year over thirty years.

Speaker 1

其实,甚至可以说这个行业的产量增长更好。

If anything, could make the argument that the volume growth in this industry is better.

Speaker 0

顺便说一句,正如你在文章里提到的,我们说的不是加拿大的油砂,

By the way, as you say in your piece, we're not talking about Canadian tar sands,

Speaker 1

对吧?不,不是,所以……

are we No, talking no, So

Speaker 0

那个3%的产量,是不是也包括油砂?

is that 3% volume, does that presumably include tar sands?

Speaker 1

那应该包括所有东西,我想。

That would include everything, think.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 1

天然气产量一直相对平稳,不过有一些迹象表明,一些大型液化天然气项目可能会改善这种情况。

The gas volumes have been relatively flat, although there are some indications that there's some big LNG projects which could improve that.

Speaker 1

但我仍然觉得,实际上,从历史上看,这个行业的产量,也就是废物流量,一直比我们一开始提到的市政废物产量要好。

But I still feel that actually, historically, the volumes in this industry, the waste volumes, have been better than the municipal waste volumes that we talked about at the start.

Speaker 1

但当然,这会带来一定程度的周期性。

But of course, that will come with a degree of cyclicality.

Speaker 1

我认为这是第一个风险。

I think that's the first risk.

Speaker 1

我觉得这家公司真正证明自己的时刻,是在能源低迷期或者大宗商品价格低的时候,如果它还能处理废物量并拿到一些定价,那么人们就会开始意识到,这其实是一个比它目前被估值所反映的更稳定的业务。

I think where this company will prove itself out will be in a energy downturn or if commodity prices are low and it's still able to process volumes and get some pricing, then actually people will start to realize this is actually a more stable business than it's perhaps being valued at.

Speaker 0

当它把从水中分离出来的油卖回给能源公司时,它在那里能获得一些利润提升吗,还是说?

When it sells the oil back that it's separated from water and back to the energy company, does it get any margin pickup there or is it?

Speaker 1

我认为这取决于他们与生产商签订的合同,但那里可能会有一些周期性。

I think it will depend on the contract that they have with the producer, but there could be some cyclicality there.

Speaker 1

所以正如我所说,第一个风险就是更多的周期性,因为最终的废物流是一种大宗商品。

So as I say, that's the first risk would be some more cyclicality given that the ultimate waste stream is a commodity.

Speaker 1

但正如我所说,其中80%是与生产相关的。

But as I say, 80% of it is production related.

Speaker 1

然后我认为第二个长期风险是,如果我们停止使用碳氢化合物,那么就没有任何废物需要处理了。

And then I think the second longer term risk is that if we stop using hydrocarbons, then you don't have anything, any waste to dispose of.

Speaker 1

但说到那一点,我觉得那远远超出了我的时间范围。

But when it comes to that, I think that's way beyond my time horizon.

Speaker 1

到那时候我肯定已经不在了。

I certainly won't be here any longer at that point.

Speaker 1

但我认为从中长期来看,业务量增长的前景其实相当不错。

But I think in the medium to long term, the prospect for volume growth is actually quite good.

Speaker 1

定价权的前景也相当不错。

The prospect for pricing power is quite good.

Speaker 0

你真的认为Secure实际上比评级高得多的北美固废企业更有吸引力吗?

You believe really finally that secure is actually more attractive than the much higher rated North American solid waste businesses?

Speaker 1

从很多方面来说,可以这么认为,因为这个行业更加整合。

In many ways, could argue that because this is a more consolidated industry.

Speaker 1

现在基本上只有两家公司了。

It's basically only two players now.

Speaker 1

就是Secure Waste和Waste Connections。

It's secure waste and waste connections.

Speaker 1

有意思,一家市政垃圾公司居然决定收购这些资产。

Interesting that a municipal waste company had decided to buy these assets.

Speaker 1

它的利润率比市政垃圾公司要高。

It has higher margins than municipal waste companies.

Speaker 1

所以行业更集中,利润率也更高。

So it's more consolidated, higher margins.

Speaker 1

可以说长期来看,它的量增长略好一些,而且交易价格只有一半,市盈率不到一半。

I could argue the volume growth is slightly better on a long term basis, and it trades at half the price, less than half the multiple.

Speaker 1

如果公司能证明在整个周期内都能处理这些垃圾量并维持定价,那么随着投资者认可度的提高,它的估值可能会随时间上升。

If the company can prove through the cycle that it can process those waste volumes of pricing, then it could rerate higher over time as it gains more recognition from investors.

Speaker 1

从估值来看,这家公司的市值是35亿加元。

In valuation, this is a 3,500,000,000 Canadian dollar market cap.

Speaker 1

我估计它的可自由支配自由现金流,我。

I estimate that it's discretionary free cash flow, I.

Speaker 1

E。

E.

Speaker 1

扣除维护性资本支出后,大约有3亿美元。

After maintenance CapEx, is around $300,000,000

Speaker 0

所以它大约能产生市值的10%。

So it can throw off about 10% of its market cap.

Speaker 1

差不多,但大约是自由现金流量的11.5倍。

Not quite as much, but it's about 11.5 times discretionary free cash flow.

Speaker 1

而且我认为它能以中到高个位数的速度增长。

And I think that can grow at mid to high single digits.

Speaker 1

不错。

Not bad.

Speaker 0

非常有趣的故事。

Very interesting story.

Speaker 0

期待很快再和你交流。

Look forward to speaking to you again soon.

Speaker 1

谢谢,爱德华。

Thanks, Edward.

Speaker 0

感谢你今天抽出时间。

Thank you for your time today.

Speaker 0

希望你会收听下一期的《资本周期》。

I hope you will listen to the next edition of the Capital Cycle.

Speaker 0

本通讯仅供参考。

This communication is provided for information purposes only.

Speaker 0

请访问马拉松的网站和《全球投资评论》以获取更多信息,包括重要披露。

Please refer to Marathon's website and the Global Investment Reviews for further information, including important disclosures.

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