Platinum Bombed

大家好，欢迎收听又一期《资本周期》播客。

Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Capital Cycle podcast.

我是爱德华·钱塞勒，今天请到了亚历克斯·达菲，他是马拉松资产管理公司的新兴市场投资组合经理。

This is Edward Chancellor here with Alex Duffy, who's an Emerging Markets Portfolio Manager with Marathon Asset Management.

很高兴见到你，亚历克斯。

Nice to see you, Alex.

也很高兴再次见到你，爱德华。

Good to see you again, Edward.

谢谢你的邀请。

Thanks for having me on.

今天我们要聊的是你对矿业公司的看法，这些公司开采所谓的铂族金属，包括铂、钯和铑，你认为它们目前的股价看起来是个有吸引力的投资机会。

So we're going to talk today about your views that the mining companies that extract so called Platinum Group Metals, platinum, palladium and rhodium, appear to be an attractive investment at current share prices.

但在我们深入这个话题之前，先聊聊你对投资者追求确定性，或者说我们有时说的投资世界里的“舒适感”的看法，以及这种追求如何为逆向选股者创造机会？

But before we go down that particular rabbit hole, let's discuss your thoughts on how investors crave for certainty, or what we sometimes call comfort in the investment world, and how that creates opportunities for contrarian stock pickers?

作为开场，我们觉得铂族金属行业从投资角度来看很有意思，因为这个行业正在经历供应整合，我们稍后会详细讨论这一点。

So as an introduction, we find the Platinum Group Metals sector interesting from an investment perspective because it's an area which is going through supply consolidation, which we're going to discuss in a moment or two.

但实际上，机会是由价格低迷带来的，因为需求预期的不确定性加剧了。

But actually, the opportunity presented itself by depressed prices because of heightened uncertainty around demand expectations.

所以这导致大宗商品价格大幅下跌，同时也让其他投资者忽视了这一领域，因为它有点太难分析了。

And so that's led to both commodity prices to decline substantially, but also other investors to neglect the space because it's sort of too difficult to analyze.

需求方面有很多变数，供应方面倒不是，但需求方面有很多变数，使得前景非常不确定。

There are lots of moving parts on the demand side, not so on the supply side, but lots of moving parts on the demand side, which make for a very uncertain outlook.

而且仔细想想，看看过去几年股市回报的驱动因素，市场越来越由一小部分公司推动，投资者对这些公司商业模式的可持续性和确定性的信念已经达到了无法想象其他结果的程度。

And actually on reflection, one looks at the drivers of returns in equity markets over the last few years, markets have increasingly been driven by a narrower subset of companies where investors' belief in the sustainability and certainty of those business models has reached levels where it's impossible to think of any other outcome.

所以亚历克斯，我觉得你真正在说的是，投资者不仅对“七巨头”这些少数美国大型成长股兴趣浓厚，而且对整体优质公司也感兴趣，这些公司资本回报率高且持续，负债相对较少，股价整体相对市场较为稳定，你指的是这类公司。

So Alex, so I think what you're really talking about is the heightened investor interest in not just the Magnificent Seven, the small number of US mega cap growth stocks, but also interest in quality companies in general, companies that have higher and sustained returns on capital, companies that tend to have relatively little debt, companies whose share prices on the whole are relatively stable relative to the market, that sort of thing you're thinking of.

是的，像这样的基本面因素不容忽视，它们有内在的优点。

Yeah, and fundamental factors such as that which are not to be ignored, they have underlying merits.

但当这些基本面因素与不断增长的估值并列时，高风险就被买入了。

It's when those fundamental factors are set alongside ever growing valuations that heightened risk is sort of bought into.

所以在寻求确定性的过程中，投资者推高了这些股价，最终你得到的情况是，任何偏离现状的结果都可能导致股票价值的大幅回撤，要么是因为估值方面的倍数下降，要么是因为盈利前景可能没有人们想象的那么乐观。

So in the search for certainty, investors bid up those stock prices and actually what you end up with is a scenario where any other outcome rather than the status quo can create a material drawdown in equity values, either because of a multiple derating from a valuation perspective or potentially because the earnings outlook isn't as rosy as one might have thought.

所以当世界从需求角度或全球角度发生变化时，就像我们现在可能正在经历的那样，投资者曾经认为确定的事情突然变得非常不确定。

And so when the state of the world changes from a demand perspective or a global perspective, as one could argue we may be going through now, what investors felt was certain suddenly becomes very uncertain.

而正是在这些领域，投资风险才会显现出来。

And it's in those areas that investment risk presents itself.

所以我们喜欢把自己定位在风险的另一边，爱德华。

And so we like to sort of position ourselves on the other side of that, Edward.

对。

Yeah.

有些听众可能熟悉海曼·明斯基的金融不稳定假说，即更多的稳定会导致不稳定。

So some of the listeners will be familiar with Hyman Minsky's financial instability hypothesis, where more stability gives way to instability.

现在我们有达菲的确定性不稳定假说，即市场中的确定性越高，估值风险就越大，最终导致不确定性的局面。

And now we have Duffy's certainty instability hypothesis, where the more certainty there is in the market, the more valuation risk builds up, eventually creating a position of uncertainty.

清了清嗓子之后，我们来谈谈铂族金属。

After that throat clearing, let's get on to the Platinum Group Metals.

你认为这是一个有吸引力的机会。

You think that this is an attractive opportunity.

首先，你能定义一下这个组吗？

First of will you define this group?

是的，铂族金属是资源行业中相对小众的部分，可能很多人不太了解，但最终对我们的日常生活至关重要。

Yeah, so Platinum Group Metals is a relatively niche part of the resources sector, probably less well known to many, but ultimately critical to all of our daily lives.

它们包括三种主要大宗商品：铂、钯、铑，而且矿业公司还会同时提取少量黄金。

They consist of three major commodities within the group, platinum, palladium, rhodium, and the mining companies also extract a small amount of gold alongside that.

它们有多种用途，但主要，特别是钯，用于催化转化器，这些转化器安装在内燃机上，以去除所有有害和有毒的排放物。

They have a variety of uses, but primarily, particularly in the case of palladium, they go into the catalytic converters, which are attached to combustion engines to remove all of the harmful and toxic emissions.

因此，它们对清洁城市绝对至关重要，正如我所说，用于去除我们日常驾驶的所有车辆排放的有害氮氧化物。

And so they're absolutely fundamentally important to clean cities, and as I said, to remove in harmful NOx emissions from all of our vehicles that we drive on daily basis.

铂和钯因其能够承受极高温度的能力而具有特殊的工业用途。

And platinum and palladium have particular industrial uses because of their capacity to withstand extremely high temperatures.

对吗？

Is that correct?

对。

That's correct.

它们具有独特的性质，是非常有效的催化剂，能解决发动机排放问题。

They've got unique properties that make them very effective catalysts to solve the problem of emissions from engines.

虽然它们可以互换使用，比如可以用钯代替铂，或者反过来，但到目前为止，在铂族金属之外还没有其他替代品能起到同样的催化作用。

Whilst they're interchangeable, so you could use palladium over platinum or vice versa, Thus far, there's been no alternative outside of the PGM group that serves the same purpose in the catalyst.

而且它们非常稀有，至少我读到过，就开采而言，铂比金稀有20倍。

And they are very rare, or at least I read that platinum in terms of mining, is 20 times rarer than gold.

铂和钯一样，也是官方认可的货币金属，但我们不打算讨论这个。

It's also, along with palladium, an official monetary metal, but we're not going to discuss that.

那它到底是什么呢？

But what is it?

XAU是黄金，那铂和钯是不是也有个X在名字前面？

The XAU is gold, and then aren't Platinum and Platinum also have an X in front of their names?

是XPD和XPT。

XPD and XPT.

所以是的，铂金我认为有更大的潜在货币价值。

So yes, Platinum has, I think, more potential monetary value.

当然，很多人会把它和珠宝需求联系起来，这占了铂金总需求的20%。

Obviously, a lot of people will be familiar with it as a source of jewellery demand, which is 20% of platinum's overall demand.

所以它确实有这些特性，但主要还是工业金属，而不是货币工具。

So it does have those sorts of properties, but predominantly these are industrial metals as opposed to monetary instruments.

那我们来说说你为什么在这些股票上建仓。

So let's get into the reason why you've taken a position in these stocks.

首先，它们一直表现低迷，而你决定在当前价位买入。

Now, first of all, they've been in the doldrums, and you've decided to become a buyer at current levels.

我觉得值得注意这些金属的一些特点。

I think it's worth bearing in mind some of the characteristics of these metals.

首先，它们的供应在地理上非常集中。

First of all, they're very concentrated in terms of their geographic supply.

全球80%的铂金都在南非开采。

So 80% of the world's platinum is mined within South Africa.

钯金有45%来自南非，其余来自俄罗斯，还有一小部分来自北美。

Palladium is sourced 45% from South Africa, but otherwise from Russia and a small amount from North America.

这个行业在2020年到2022年左右经历了一个阶段，由于新冠疫情导致的供应中断，以及随后汽车制造商补充库存，出现了一个相当强劲的上升周期，虽然持续时间不长。

The sector exhibited a period from around 2020 to 2022, where as a consequence of COVID supply disruptions and then inventory stocking by the auto OEMs, there was quite a powerful upcycle, albeit short lived.

随后，价格大幅下跌，公司市值也大幅缩水，以至于如今该行业约有30%的企业在现金流基础上处于亏损状态。

And that's been followed by a significant price decline and significant decline in market valuations for the companies to the point where today around 30% of the industry is loss making on a cash basis.

所以价格已经跌到这样的地步，以至于该行业很大一部分企业生产不再经济。

So prices have fallen to the point where it's no longer economic for a significant part of the industry to produce.

这些价格下跌伴随着股价的大幅下跌，过去几年该行业的市值蒸发了大约80%。

And those price declines have been met with significant declines in stock prices, where the industry has lost around 80% of its market capitalization over the last couple of years.

现在让我们从资本周期的角度来讨论铂族金属开采行业的性质。

Now let's discuss the nature of the Platinum Group mining industry from a capital cycle perspective.

对。

Yeah.

所以，在很大程度上，和其他采矿业一样，铂族金属行业也经历相当长的周期。

So for the most part, like with other mining industries, PGM's exposed to quite long cycles.

除了2020年到2022年那段短暂时期外，上一次大的上升周期大约发生在2006年到2008年。

And so other than the short lived period 2020 to 2022, the last major upcycle occurred around 2006 to 2008.

而且由于这些行业固定成本高，资本非常密集。

And as a consequence of the fact that they're high fixed cost in nature, they're very capital intensive.

要带来新的供应，需要一段价格高企的时期，以激励对该行业的投资。

What is required to bring on new supply is a period of elevated prices that incentivizes investment into the sector.

同样，要减少行业供应，需要一段长期的价格低迷期。

And equally, what is required to reduce supply in the industry is an extended period of depressed pricing.

我们发现，从2012年到2020年，金属市场经历了非常痛苦的熊市，导致投资严重不足，我们认为这现在正为供应中断和供应下降埋下伏笔，最终应该会带来行业基本面的复苏，因为解决低价格的办法总是低价格。

And what we've found as a consequence of a very painful bear market for the metals from around 2012 up until 2020 is a high degree of underinvestment that we feel is now setting us up for a period of supply disruption and supply declines that should ultimately result in a recovery in industry fundamentals as the solution to low prices is always low prices.

你在文章里展示了该行业的资本支出与折旧比率在下降。

And you show in your piece the CapEx to depreciation ratio for the industry declining.

是的，我认为这是我们从资本周期角度关注的关键指标之一，即行业是否在投资以维持其当前产出水平。

Yeah, so I think this is one of the key metrics that we look at from a capital cycle perspective is really how is an industry investing to sustain its current level of output or not?

当你查看资本投资，即铂族金属行业矿业公司的资本支出时，我们看到在过去十年中有八年，资本支出低于维持当前产出所需的水平。

And when you look at the capital investments, so the CapEx spending by mining companies in the PGM industry, what we see is that in eight of the last ten years, CapEx spending has been below the level required to sustain current output.

值得一提的是，在同一时期，采矿成本每年上涨约6%，资本支出成本也上涨了类似幅度，但名义资本支出水平基本持平。

It's worth mentioning that through that same period, mining costs have increased by about 6% per annum, but CapEx costs have also increased by a similar amount and yet nominal CapEx levels are broadly flat.

所以，实际投入该行业的资本已经大幅减少了。

So there's been a significant decrease in the real amount of capital that's being invested back into the industry.

明白了。

I see.

亚历克斯，你的意思是，报告的资本支出与折旧比率实际上低估了投资不足的程度，因为它们是按历史价格计算的。

So what you're saying, Alex, is that the reported CapEx to depreciation ratio actually understates the degree of underinvestment because they're working off of historic prices.

完全正确。

Absolutely.

确实如此。

That's absolutely right.

那么你认为这正在限制供应，铂族金属市场正陷入长期供应不足的局面吗？

And you believe this is now constraining supply, and that the market for Platinum Group Metals is now falling into a position of chronic undersupply?

是的。

Yeah.

铂族金属的供应主要有两个来源。

So there's two major sources, really, of PGM supply.

供应主要有两个来源：一个是矿山本身的一级供应，另一个是通过回收得到的二级供应。

There's the primary supply that comes from the mines themselves, and then there's secondary supply which comes through recycling.

首先看一级供应，我们看到矿山在维持现有产量方面越来越吃力。

If we deal with primary supply in the first instance, what we've seen is mines increasingly struggle to maintain existing output.

实际上，在过去几年里，南非的矿山——我之前提到过，它们占铂金总产量的约80%——产量出现了相当显著的下降。

And actually over the last few years, the South African mines, which as I mentioned earlier, account for around 80% of overall platinum output, the South African mines have seen reasonably significant declines in output.

而且由于我们看到的投资不足，预计未来五年产量还会再下降10%到15%。

And that is expected to decrease by a further 10 to 15% over the next five years as a consequence of the level of underinvestment that we're witnessing.

所以，尽管需求方面可能存在疑问和高度不确定性，但在供应方面，未来的情况其实相当确定，那就是矿山应对能力和金属产出会越来越紧张。

And so whilst there might be questions and high uncertainty around demand on the supply side, there is actually a high level of certainty as to what the future looks like, and it's one of increasing tightness in terms of, you know, mine's ability to respond and reduce metal.

资本周期投资理念的一个核心观点是，当公司的资产市场价值低于重置成本时，公司就不愿意再投资，这时把资本返还给股东、回购股票等才是合理的，而不是投资新产能。

So one of the tenets of the capital cycle investment philosophies is that companies become reluctant to invest when the market value of their assets fall below replacement cost, at which point it makes sense to return capital to shareholders, buy back shares or whatever, but not to invest in new capacity.

这对铂族金属矿商有什么影响呢？

How does this affect the Platinum Group Metals miners?

影响体现在两个方面。

There's two ways that that gets impacted.

首先，矿场没有投入足够的资金来维持现有的产量。

In the first instance, mines are not investing enough to sustain current output.

但正如你所说，考虑到重置成本，根据不同的估算，大约是当前市场水平的两到三倍，企业没有动力去替换和增加新的产能。

But as you point out, with replacement costs, which, depending upon the estimates that one looks at, appear to be around two to three times above current market levels, companies are not incentivized to replace and add new capacity in the industry.

所以我们面临双重问题：现有矿场投资不足，这为未来的供应埋下了隐患；同时，一旦现有矿场寿命终结，也没有新的发现来补充替代的盎司，而这种情况在未来两三年、五年甚至更长时间内越来越可能发生。

So we've got this double problem, if you like, where existing mines are being underinvested, which stores up the problems for future supply, and then new discoveries are not being made to add replacement ounces once existing mines come to the end of their life, which is becoming increasingly likely as we look over the next two, three, five years and beyond.

所以我认为有两个方面。

And so I think there are two elements.

一是现有矿场会因为投资不足而令人失望，供应风险因此增加；但同样，一旦现有矿场达到寿命终点，就没有东西可以替代它们。

One is existing mines will disappoint because they're being underinvested and supply risk is increased as a consequence of that, But equally, once existing mines reach end of life, there is nothing to replace them.

这直接源于管理团队对低估值和市场信号的反应，市场信号说：不要把这些资金投回这些资产，因为我们不会为你们未来可能生产的盎司给予回报。

That is a direct result of management teams responding to low valuations and the market signal, which is saying, do not invest back into these assets because we won't reward you for the ounces which you might produce in the future.

但是亚历克斯，在你的文章里，你也提到行业内的个别企业不愿意削减产能，部分原因是他们不想成为那个通过削减产能来为整个行业恢复价格纪律而自己承担成本的公司。

But Alex, in your piece, you also say that individual industry players are reluctant to cut capacity, partly because they don't want to be the company that, by cutting capacity, restores price discipline for the rest of the industry at their cost.

我前几天看了一些关于金矿开采的节目。

So I was watching something about gold mining the other day.

在黄金开采行业，人们说矿山很难倒闭。

In the gold mining industry, they say mines die hard.

也就是说，不赚钱的矿山要花很长时间才能停产。

In other words, that unprofitable mines take a long time to come out of production.

所以这是你担心的一点。

So that's some concern of yours here.

对吗？

Is that correct?

不可避免的是，在一家矿业公司的投资组合中，不会只有单一资产。

Inevitably, within a mining company's portfolio, there's not just one single asset.

这个行业已经整合到一定程度，大致有四大主要生产商，它们各自运营着多种不同的矿山。

The industry has consolidated to a level where there's broadly four main producers that operate a variety of different mines within their portfolio.

在这些矿山中，盈利矿山和亏损矿山之间存在交叉补贴。

And there is a cross subsidy of profitable mines versus loss making mines within that.

因此，尽管价格已经跌入成本曲线，某家公司投资组合中的某些资产可能正在亏损。

And so whilst prices have cut into the cost curve and certain assets within a particular company's portfolio may be loss making.

由于行业的博弈论、关闭矿山和裁员的政治问题，公司本身不愿意关闭单个资产。

As a consequence of the game theory of the industry, the issues around the politics of closing mines and laying off workers, the companies themselves are reluctant to close individual assets.

因此，我们认为这种供应反应将表现为投资不足的结果，这意味着在某个时间点，所有资产都有令人失望的风险。

And so the way in which this supply response will present itself, we believe, is as a consequence of the underinvestment, which just means that at a certain point in time, all of the assets are at risk of disappointing.

所以，当你开采铂金时，通常会发生的是，铂金来自地下矿山，我应该指出，地质上会发生一些事情，无意中减少产量。

So what often happens when you're mining platinum, which comes from an underground mine, I should point out as well, is that there'll be something that happens with the geology which reduces output inadvertently.

因此，我们实际面临的风险不是供应被故意中断，而是无意中的生产失误，我们在过去几个月已经看到了这种情况，这可能对行业内的供需动态产生重大影响。

And so what we're actually exposed to is not supply being taken offline deliberately, it's inadvertent production misses, which we've already witnessed over the last few months that can have a significant impact on the supply demand dynamics within the industry.

所以我们认为这就是供应反应出现的地方，不一定是通过个别公司的故意行动。

And so we think that is where this supply response presents itself, not through necessarily deliberate actions from an individual company.

所以，亚历克斯，要明确一点，你认为如果大型集团中的个别矿山出现供应问题或生产问题，那会导致供应短缺，进而推高铂族金属的价格。

So, Alex, to be clear here, you think that if there are supply problems or production problems at individual mines as part of the larger groups, that will feed through to shortage of supply, which will feed through to higher prices for Platinum Group Metals.

你不能忽视这样一个事实：我们身处金融世界，但铂金是一种非常实体的商品，它的生产是为了满足其需求场景。

You mustn't lose sight of the fact that we operate in a financial world, but this is a very physical commodity, and it gets produced to be used in its demand cases.

而且实际的基本面市场相当紧张。

And the actual fundamental markets are quite tight.

你看每年铂金的用量和供应量，其实一直处于一个相对紧平衡的状态。

If you look at the amount of platinum that's used annually versus the amount that's supplied, it's always in a reasonably tight balance.

所以只要供应量减少2%到3%，市场就会出现缺口。

And so a 2% to 3% supply miss puts the market into a deficit.

如果客户在其他地方找不到这些金属，他们就得去现货市场高价购买，或者为了满足自己的需求而抬高价格，这样一来，产业链其他环节的需求就会被抑制。

And if the customers can't find those metal ounces elsewhere, they'll be forced to go into the spot market to buy them at higher prices, or they'll be forced to bid up prices for their use case, which creates demand destruction somewhere else within the industry supply chain.

所以实物供应中断会立刻影响价格，而我们相信，正是这一点会让铂族金属价格回升到更高水平。

And so there is an immediate impact on prices of physical supply disruptions, and it's that which we feel will restore PGM prices to higher levels.

你提到了回收带来的额外铂族金属供应，你在文章里也写了这个。

You mentioned an extra supply of the Platinum Group Metals from recycling, and you wrote about that in your piece.

那就谈谈这个供应来源吧。

Just talk about that source of supply.

回收行业大约占整个行业供应量的20%到25%，具体比例取决于你看的是哪种金属。

So the recycling sector accounts for approximately 20 to 25% of supply in the industry, depending upon which of the metals you look at.

一般来说，一辆车或一辆汽车的平均使用寿命大约是8到10年，具体也要看市场情况。

So that is where the average useful life of a vehicle, of a car, would be around eight to ten years, depending on the market that you look at.

所以之后，车辆就被报废了。

So after that, the vehicle gets scrapped.

在报废过程中，催化转化器里的铂族金属会被提取出来，然后重新加工。

Through the scrapping process, the PGM metals which sit within the catalytic converter are extracted and then reprocessed.

所以你可以通过跟踪报废周期和行业内的历史需求，来追踪我们所说的二次供应。

And so you can actually track secondary supply, as we call it, by following the scrapping cycle and the historic demand within the industry.

这显然随着时间的推移而增长，因为铂族金属的装载量大幅增加了。

And that has obviously grown over time because PGM loadings went up significantly.

大约十年前，我们收紧了排放标准。

We tightened emission standards around a decade or so ago.

然而，我们现在面临的情况是，虽然30%的矿山在亏损，但从催化转化器中回收铂族金属实际上并不经济，因为每个催化转化器里只有两克金属，价值大约100美元。

The point we've reached now, however, is that whilst 30% of mines are loss making, it's actually uneconomic to recycle PGM metals from catalytic converters because there's only two grams of metal which is valued at around $100 within each of the catalytic converters.

而且显然，回收过程中有人工成本、加工成本和库存融资成本。

And obviously there is a labor cost, there's a processing cost, and there's an inventory financing cost in the recycling process.

所以我们发现，尽管对回收供应增长的预测非常强劲，但由于价格环境，以及车辆使用时间更长，导致金属在现有车队中停留的时间比原先预期的更长，回收供应也令人失望。

And so what we found is that whilst there were very strong projections about supply growth from recycling, that is also disappointing as a consequence of the price environment, but also as a consequence of vehicles being driven longer, which means that that metal is staying in the existing fleet of cars for longer than was originally anticipated.

所以我认为，这实际上在供应方面是一个相当实质性的收紧，再加上我们刚才讨论的初级供应投资不足。

So I think that's actually quite a material tightening on the supply side alongside the underinvestment in primary supply that we've just discussed.

那么亚历克斯，持怀疑态度的人会说，随着电动汽车市场份额不断增加，内燃机像渡渡鸟一样灭绝，或者至少像马车一样被淘汰，铂族金属的长期需求前景将会下降。

So Alex, a sceptic to your viewpoint would say that the long term demand outlook for Platinum Group Metals is set to decline as battery electric vehicles take ever increasing market share and the internal combustion engine goes the way of the dodo, or at least the horse drawn carriage.

你对此怎么看？

What do you say to that?

这个观点完全有道理。

The point's absolutely valid.

比如在中国，我们看到电动汽车的销量已经占到年度汽车总销量的三分之一以上，而电动汽车不需要催化转化器。

We've seen in China, for instance, the increase in EVs, which are now over a third of the annual sales of of of vehicles, and electric vehicles don't have the need for a catalytic converter.

这是一个重要的需求来源，尤其是对钯金的需求已经开始下降。

That's an important source of demand, particularly for palladium that has started to decline.

但在其他市场，电动汽车的普及速度远低于预期。

But in other markets, EV penetration is much slower than projections.

所以这又回到了关于确定性和不确定性的那个点上。

So it comes back to this point around certainty and uncertainty.

以前几乎所有人都确信电动车会占领全世界，铂族金属就不再需要了。

There was almost unequivocal certainty that EVs would take over the world and PGM metals would not be required.

但实际上，现在这种确定性远不如几年前那么高了。

But actually, that's far less certain today than it was a few years ago.

我的意思是，别这么说。

Mean, let no.

我想说，咱们别把几年前的情况说得那么确定。

I'm gonna say, let's not call it certain a few years ago.

我们可以说，当时的需求预测过于自信了，而这正是资本周期哲学的一个原则：我们一直看到各种需求预测，但往往不会像人们预期的那样实现。

We can say that the demand forecasts were overly confident, and that is a principle of the capital cycle philosophy is that we see demand forecasts the whole time, which don't actually eventuate as people expect.

完全正确。

Absolutely.

所以我认为，仍然有理由认为，而且是一个合理的理由，即电动车的普及率在全球范围内可能会随时间增加。

So I think there's still an argument to be made and a valid argument that EV penetration will likely increase globally over time.

然而，在美国和欧洲，增长的速度明显低于最初的预期。

However, the rate of increase is significantly lower than initial sort of expectations in The US and in Europe.

电动车还是很贵。

EVs are still expensive.

内燃机汽车的销量每年都在绝对增长，而不是在萎缩。

Internal combustion engine sales have been growing year on year in absolute terms, not shrinking.

所以我觉得这一点很重要，我们不应该忽视。

So I think that's an important point that we shouldn't miss out on.

而且，还有其他来源。

And ultimately, there are other sources.

混合动力汽车仍然带有内燃机，需要铂族金属。

So hybrid vehicles still have ICE engines attached to them that require a PGM load in.

还有其他用途，比如重型卡车，排放标准逐年收紧，每个催化转换器需要更多的铂族金属。

And then there are other uses, heavy duty trucks, for instance, where emission standards tighten year on year and that requires more PGM per catalytic converter.

所以虽然电动车占据了头条，但需求端还有很多其他驱动因素，使得需求减少和下降的速度存在不确定性。

So whilst EV takes the headlines, there are lots of other drivers on the demand side which create a degree of uncertainty as to the rate of demand destruction and demand decline.

实际上，我们越来越清楚地看到，供应端绝对受限，我们可以通过公司的行为观察到这一点。

Actually what is becoming increasingly obvious to us is that the supply side is absolutely constrained and we can observe that through the actions of companies.

我们可以通过那些管理团队面临的资本周期观察到这一点，这让我们对供应侧的信心比过去几年占主导的需求论点更强。

We can observe that through the capital cycle that those management teams are facing, and that gives us an increased degree of conviction in the supply side relative to that demand argument which has prevailed over the last few years.

正是在这个交汇点上，我们找到了机会。

It's within that intersection that we actually find the opportunity.

现在，亚历克斯，最后说一句。

Now, last word, Alex.

你写道，你认为投资这些铂族金属矿商的最佳方法是广泛撒网，也就是购买一篮子股票。

You write that you think the best approach to investing in these Platinum Group Metals miners is broad brush, namely purchasing a basket of stocks.

你能解释一下吗？

Can you explain that?

是的。

Yeah.

这再次与高度集中的投资组合的流行趋势背道而驰。

Again, quite contrary to the fashion for highly concentrated portfolios.

我们面对的是整个行业的事件，每家公司都在对自己的产能投资不足。

What we're dealing with here is an industry wide event where every company is underinvesting in their own capacity.

由于供应中断是意外而非有意为之，很难在具体公司层面预判供应缺口会出现在哪里。

As a consequence of supply disruptions being inadvertent rather than deliberate, it's quite difficult to see where the supply outage will come from at the company level.

我们只是相当确信，行业层面一定会出现这种情况。

We're just quite confident that it is going to occur at an industry level.

因此，供应中断对所有金属生产商都有利，但其中某家公司在供应方面可能特别糟糕，会处于非常不利的地位，只是很难确切地说出是哪家公司。

And therefore, the supply disruptions are beneficial to all producers of the metal, and yet one of the companies which has a particularly bad outcome from a supply perspective might be quite severely disadvantaged, but it's just very difficult to say with any degree of certainty which company that will be.

所以，鉴于这种不确定性，我们认为在这个资本周期的子领域内，采取分散投资的方法比押注单一头寸更明智，而不是围绕那种持有成本的观点。

And so as a consequence of that element of uncertainty, again, we think merits a diversified approach to investing within this subset of a capital cycle rather than a sort of very singular position around the kind of, you know, the cost of carry argument.

嗯，听起来是个明智的做法，亚历克斯。

Well, sounds a sensible approach, Alex.

很高兴和你交流，祝这项投资好运。

And it's been good talking to you, and good luck with this investment.

一如既往，谢谢你的时间。

Thanks for your time as always.

谢谢你今天的时间。

Thank you for your time today.

希望大家收听下一期的《资本周期》。

I hope you will listen to the next edition of the Capital Cycle.

本通讯仅供参考。

This communication is provided for information purposes only.

更多信息，包括重要披露，请参阅马拉松网站和《全球投资评论》。

Please refer to Marathon's website and the Global Investment Reviews for further information, including important disclosures.