The Long Tail

大家好，欢迎收听又一期《资本周期》播客。

Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Capital Cycle podcast.

今天和我一起的是汤姆·沃勒姆，他是马拉松公司的北美分析师。

I have with me Tom Wharram, who's a North American analyst with Marathon.

欢迎你，汤姆。

Welcome, Tom.

很高兴再次见到你，爱德华。

Good to see you again, Edward.

马拉松的资本周期投资理念一直强调要密切关注管理层如何分配股东的资本。

So Marathon's capital cycle investment philosophy has always emphasised taking a close look at how management allocates the shareholders' capital.

多年来，多期《全球投资评论》经常引用沃伦·巴菲特的一句话，我引用一下：“许多CEO在资本配置上的无能可不是小事。”

Over the years, various Global Investment Reviews have frequently cited Warren Buffett's observation, and I quote, The lack of skill that many CEOs have at capital allocation is no small matter.

如果一家公司的CEO每年将相当于净资产10%的收益留存下来，那么十年后，这位CEO将负责配置公司中超过60%的运营资本。

After ten years on the job, a CEO whose company annually retains earnings equal to 10% of net worth will have been responsible for the deployment of more than 60% of all the capital at work in the business.

对管理层的这种高度关注，解释了为什么马拉松的投资组合经理和分析师会花大量时间与公司高管会面，正如马拉松联合创始人尼尔·奥斯特罗在去年我和他做的一期播客中所解释的那样。

Now, the strong focus on management explains why Marathon portfolio managers and analysts spend so much time meeting senior corporate executives, as Neil Ostro, one of the Marathon co founders, explained in a podcast I did with him last year.

汤姆，在你最新的《全球投资评论》里，你提到了一家加拿大公司的老板，他把资本效率的理念发挥到了极致，至少是我见过的最极致的。

So Tom, in your latest Global Investment Review, you've identified the boss of a Canadian company who's taken the idea of capital efficiency to the farthest degree, at least that I've ever come across.

但首先，你能告诉我你与管理层会面时，会关注些什么吗？

But first, can you tell me what you're looking for when you meet with management?

是的，这可以有很多方面，而且取决于你对公司的了解程度，以及你是否之前见过这位CEO。

Yes, so it can be a lot of things, and it can depend how well you know the company and whether you've met the CEO before.

但通常对于初次会面，一个有用的技巧是试着通过他们的视角来看待这个行业。

But often for a first meeting, one useful tool when meeting management is to try and see the industry through their eyes.

我们想知道他们使用的思维模型，他们真正关心什么，以及他们认为行业在遥远的未来会是什么样子。

We want to know the mental models they use, what they really care about and how they think the industry will look far out into the future.

当然，我们并不总是同意他们的看法。

Now, of course, we don't always agree with them.

你不能把他们说的每句话都当真，但深入了解这些最终管理我们客户资本的人的想法，应该有助于做出更好的投资决策。

You can't take everything they say at face value, but getting inside the head of these people who are ultimately stewarding our clients' capital should make for better investment decisions.

在这方面，我们来谈谈你在最新文章中提到的那个案例吧。

In this respect, let's discuss the case you mentioned in your latest piece.

给我们讲讲Richelieu Hardware吧。

Tell us about Richelieu Hardware.

好的，Richelieu Hardware，马拉松控股。

Yeah, Richelieu Hardware, Marathon Holding.

这是一家加拿大专业五金分销商，服务于木工行业。

It's a Canadian specialty hardware distributor to the woodworking industry.

他们销售铰链、把手、抽屉滑轨和其他配件。

They sell things like hinges, handles, drawer slides and other accessories.

这些是制作厨柜、浴室柜、衣橱等所需的零件。

And those are the parts you need to make kitchen cabinets, bathroom cabinets, closets, that kind of thing.

所以客户通常是小型的橱柜制造商，员工不到10人。

So customers are generally small cabinet makers with under 10 employees.

特别引起你注意的是公司CEO推荐的一本书？

And what caught your attention in particular was a book recommended by the company's CEO?

是的。

Yeah.

这位CEO从1987年起就经营这家公司，他可以说是这家公司的缔造者。

So the CEO, he's been running the company since 1987, and he's very much architect of the business.

我们见到他时，他推荐了一本对他制定公司战略影响最大的书。

And when we met him, he recommended the book which has been most influential for him in formulating the company's strategy.

他推荐的书是克里斯·安德森的《长尾理论》。

And the book he recommended was The Long Tale by Chris Anderson.

这本书现在大约有二十年历史了。

It's about twenty years old now.

它出版于2006年，在零售业以及其他领域影响深远，当时基于互联网的商业模式兴起，大幅增加了可以向客户提供的产品种类。

It was published in 2006 and was highly influential in retail and also elsewhere as internet based business models took off and dramatically increased the range of products that could be offered to customers.

作者的核心论点是，历史上公司试图制造所谓的“热门产品”，也就是吸引最多人的产品。

At the core of the author's argument is that historically companies tried to make what he calls hits, that is making products which appeal to the largest number of people.

正因为如此，那些不太受欢迎的产品形成了一个被忽视的“长尾”，而尝试销售这些产品的公司会发现一个远比预期更大、更有利可图的市场。

And because of this, there was this long tail of less popular products which had been neglected, and companies that tried to sell these would find a market that was far larger and more profitable than they expected.

那么，是什么力量让公司能够去追求长尾市场呢？

So what are the forces that enable a company to go after the long tail?

所以作者指出了三个力量。

So the author identifies three forces.

首先是生产的民主化，这降低了生产的门槛，创造了更广泛的内容。

First of all, it's democratisation of production, and that lowers the barriers to production and creates a wider range of content.

其次是分销的民主化，这基本上就是数字分销。

Secondly, it's democratization of distribution and this is basically digital distribution.

第三是连接供需的工具。

And thirdly, it's tools for connecting supply and demand.

也就是推荐算法、搜索引擎、过滤器之类的东西。

So this is recommendation algorithms, search engines, filters, that kind of thing.

过去二十年里，长尾理论在商业战略中已经相当成熟了。

Over the past twenty years, the notion of the long tail has become pretty well established in business strategy.

是的，确实如此。

Yeah, definitely.

这些概念在今天看来可能有些显而易见。

And these concepts to some extent may seem a bit obvious today.

我们都知道亚马逊和其他公司是如何通过长尾战略获利的，但这些见解在相对近期才出现，并且在过去二十年里一直是一股强大的力量。

We are all familiar with how Amazon and others have profited from the long tail strategy, but they were novel insights relatively recently and have been a powerful force over the last twenty years.

那今天仍然适用吗？

And are still relevant today?

是的，当然。

Yes, definitely.

这是我读这本书时体会到的其中一点。

That was one of the things that came through to me on reading the book.

这些促成长期尾部的力量对于当今新兴公司来说仍然非常相关。

These forces that enable the long tail are still very relevant for today's up and coming companies.

我想到的一个例子就是TikTok。

And the one that sprang to my mind was TikTok.

所以如果我们考虑那三种力量，首先是生产的大众化。

So if we think about those three forces, firstly, democratisation of production.

TikTok提供了简单、免费且高质量的视频编辑工具，降低了内容创作的门槛。

TikTok provides simple, free and high quality video editing tools that have lowered the barriers to content creation.

第二，是分销的民主化。

Secondly, democratization of distribution.

这可能是最简单的，但显然无限滚动和全球覆盖提供了广泛且免费的分销渠道。

And this is probably the simplest, but clearly infinite scroll and global reach provide that wide and free distribution.

可能第三个力量对TikTok来说最重要，那就是他们非常强大的推荐算法。

And probably the third force is most important for TikTok, which is their very powerful recommendation algorithm.

这个算法个性化推荐，将用户与长尾内容匹配起来。

And that personalises recommendations and matches users to the long tail of content.

但即使在社交媒体之外，长尾效应也适用于那些提供稍微普通一些产品的公司，比如Richelieu Hardware？

But even outside of social media, the long tail applies to companies that say, offer slightly more mundane products like Richelieu Hardware?

是的。

Yeah.

Richelieu Hardware可能是长尾概念更传统的应用。

So Richelieu Hardware is probably a more traditional application of the long tail concept.

他们在加拿大的48个分销中心和美国的61个分销中心销售145,000种产品。

They sell 145,000 products from 48 distribution centres in Canada and 61 in The US.

他们一直在努力增加新产品，目标是让木工客户想要的一切都能买到。

And they are constantly trying to add new products with the aim of selling everything a customer working with wood could want.

管理这么多产品的关键，正如CEO跟我们说的，你必须对投入资本回报率着迷。

And the key to success with managing such a large number of products is, as the CEO said to us, you have to be obsessed with return on invested capital.

这种着迷在实际操作中体现在他们监控库存周转率。

And the way this obsession plays out in practice is that they monitor the inventory turn.

也就是每个产品的销售速度。

So that's how fast each product is selling.

他们对每一个产品都这样做。

And they do that on every single product.

然后随着库存周转率的变化，他们自动调整价格。

They then automatically update the price as those inventory turns change.

这确保了每个产品都能产生足够的资本回报。

And this ensures that every product is generating a sufficient return on capital.

那么汤姆，跟我们说说Richelieu到底是怎么用长尾策略来控制销售内容的。

So Tom, tell us how Richelieu actually implements its long tail approach for controlling what it sells.

他们的库存周转率下限是两次。

They have a cut off of two inventory turns.

也就是说，如果一个产品一年卖不到两次，他们就会把它从产品列表中移除。

So if you sell a product less than twice a year, then they cut that out of the the product list.

如果一个产品一年卖三次，他们就会定价很高，这样利润率就很高，从而保证投资资本回报率达到他们需要的水平。

If you were selling three times a year, they would price it such the margin would be very high, and that keeps the return on invested capital at the level that they need.

然后随着产品销售越来越快，他们会降低利润率和价格，以保持投资资本回报率不变。

And then as the product sells faster and faster than that, they reduce the margin and the price such that that return on invested capital stays constant.

这样做的目的是让这成千上万种产品的投资资本回报率大致保持统一。

It's intended to create a more or less uniform return on invested capital across this tens of thousands of product.

完全正确，是的。

Exactly right, yeah.

告诉我，这是为了控制营运资本，但理查德对控制营运资本的执着并不止于此吧？

And tell me, that's purpose is to control working capital, but Richard's obsession with controlling its working capital doesn't end there?

没错。

No.

我们刚才谈的是里歇柳自己的营运资金，然后还有他们客户的营运资金。

So what we've just talked about is Richelieu's own working capital, and then there's the working capital of their customers.

许多小型制造商把库存集中在里歇柳的仓库里，这提高了整个供应链的资本效率。

And many small manufacturers pooling inventory at Richelieu's warehouses improves the overall capital efficiency of the supply chain.

通常，小型橱柜制造商会只订购他们当周需要的库存。

Typically, small cabinet maker will order inventory just what they need for that week.

订单量很小。

And the order size is quite small.

可能就三四百美元。客户对此很满意，因为里歇柳的配送很快，而且线上服务也很强大。

It would be 300 or $400 And customers are comfortable with this because Richelieu has very fast delivery and a strong online proposition.

所以公司大约一半的产品是在线销售的，而竞争对手只有大约15%。

So around half of the company's products are sold online, while competitors are closer to 15%.

你说里歇柳在他们的细分市场占据了主导地位，这形成了一个良性循环。

And you say that Richelieu has achieved a position of market dominance in their niche, which creates a virtuous circle.

我认为对于每个分销企业，或者说大多数分销企业来说，规模至关重要。

I think for every distribution business, or certainly most distribution businesses, scale is critical.

Richelieu估计他们在加拿大的市场份额，大约占其销售额的60%，在50%到60%之间。

And Richelieu estimate that their market share in Canada, which is close to 60% of their sales, is 50 to 60%.

而在美国，如果你看看他们服务的市场，他们大约有25%的市场份额。

And in The US, if you look at the markets they serve, they've got about 25% market share.

这种规模带来了更低的采购成本，物流效率和科技效率的提升。

And that scale provides cheaper purchasing, it provides logistics efficiencies and technology efficiencies.

这样一来，对于客户来说，从Richelieu购买比从那些较小的竞争对手那里购买，成本更低，选择更多，服务也更好。

And that then to the customer provides lower cost, wider range and better service for customers who buy from Richelieu rather than their smaller competitors.

你实际上是在说，从迈克尔·波特的五力模型来看，Richelieu处于有利位置，这个分析框架已经融入了马拉松的资本周期方法中。

What you're really saying is that Richelieu looks well positioned from the perspective of Michael Porter's five forces, an analytical framework which is incorporated into Marathon's capital cycle approach.

是的。

Yes.

对于分销业务，我们希望看到的市场结构是像沙漏一样的。

And what we like to see for a distribution business is a market structure which looks like an hourglass.

也就是说，供应商和客户都是分散的，而分销商处于中间，连接着两边。

So that's fragmented suppliers and fragmented customers with the distributor sitting in the middle connecting the two sides.

这正是我们在Richelieu身上看到的情况。

That's exactly what we see for Richelieu.

这种市场结构对分销业务有利的原因是它降低了去中介化的风险。

The reason that market structure is good for a distribution business is it reduces the risk of disintermediation.

所以，客户不值得与数百家供应商建立关系，反之亦然。

So it's not worth one of your customers forming a relationship with hundreds of suppliers and vice versa.

我还应该提一下亚马逊，因为我想大多数听众都会想，亚马逊在这里会不会构成威胁？

I should also probably say a word on Amazon because I think most listeners will be thinking, doesn't Amazon pose a risk here?

确实如此。

And that is right.

但我认为有几件事可以减轻这种风险。

But I think there are a few things that mitigate the risk.

首先，Richelieu超过一半的产品是自有品牌或独家产品，而要在这样一个利基市场复制这一点，对亚马逊来说真的不值得花时间。

Firstly, over half of Richelieu's products are own label or exclusive products, and replicating this for such a niche market would just not really be worth Amazon's time.

实际上，Richelieu利用亚马逊的市场平台，通过他们的亚马逊店铺销售自有品牌产品。

And Richelieu actually make use of Amazon's marketplace by selling their own label products through their Amazon store.

第二，Richelieu有专业的销售代表，可以为客户提供建议。

Secondly, Richelieu have specialist sales reps who can provide advice to customers.

他们有设计展厅，客户可以去那里看产品。

They have design showrooms where customers can go and look at the products.

他们还为客户提供培训。

And they also provide training to customers.

而这些都不是亚马逊能提供的。

And none of that is part of Amazon's proposition.

你现在写Richelieu的原因是你认为，由于美国住宅房地产市场周期性疲软，它目前可能是一个有吸引力的投资机会。

And the reason you're writing about Richelieu now is that you believe it's potentially an attractive investment today, owing to cyclical weakness in The US residential housing market.

是的。

Yes.

所以，让Richelieu今天显得有趣的一点是，由于盈利暂时低迷，公司股价疲软。

So one of the things that makes Richelieu interesting today is the company's weak share price, thanks to a temporary depression in earnings.

大约四分之三的收入来自住宅翻新，而美国家居装修市场在2021年和2022年强劲增长后，2023年下降了4%，2024年下降了3%。

Approximately three quarters of revenues are for residential renovations, and The US home improvement market fell 4% in 2023 and 3% in 2024 after a very strong 2021 and 2022.

当前房市低迷的原因是什么？

What explains the current housing downturn?

当然是因为利率。

It is, of course, interest rates.

这有两方面原因。

And there are two parts to this.

首先，大型家居装修项目通常靠信贷融资。

Firstly, large home improvement projects are often financed by credit.

其次，装修项目往往由搬家引发。

And secondly, projects are often initiated by home moves.

也就是说，要么是卖房前准备，要么是新房主入住后装修。

So that's either people preparing the property for sale or by new owners when they move in.

人们因为锁定了低利率而推迟搬家。

And people are delaying moving because they've locked in low rates.

如果搬家，就会失去这些低利率。

And if they move, they will lose those low rates.

所以目前美国现有房屋销售每年大约四百万套。

So US existing home sales are about 4,000,000 a year at the moment.

这是最低水平，至少在我看过的数据中是这样，这些数据可以追溯到二十年前，而且比十年平均水平低了大约20%。

That is the lowest level, certainly in the data that I've seen, which goes back twenty years, and it's about 20% below the ten year average.

不过，即使利率不下降，我认为人们也不能无限期推迟搬家，因为他们会换工作、生孩子、离婚。

However, even if interest rates don't fall, I think people can't delay moving indefinitely because they change jobs, they have children, they get divorced.

这意味着从中期来看，现有房屋销售可能会从当前水平上升。

And that means that in the medium term, existing home sales are likely to rise from here.

这应该对房屋装修项目和Richelieu Hardware公司有利。

And that should be positive for home improvement projects and for Richelieu Hardware.

我们通常不会花太多时间担心季度评论，但家得宝和劳氏的最新评论表明市场开始出现复苏迹象，这两家公司也面临完全相同的房屋装修趋势。

We don't tend to spend too much time worrying about quarterly commentary, but the latest commentary from Home Depot and Lowe's who are exposed to exactly the same home improvement trends suggests that the market is starting to show green shoots.

从表面上看，这只股票看起来并不便宜。

Now optically, the stock doesn't look that cheap.

是的，没错。

Yeah, that's right.

所以2025年共识市盈率是24倍。

So twenty twenty five consensus PE ratio is 24 times.

这看起来不太吸引人，但别忘了每股收益自2022年峰值以来大约减半了。

That doesn't look that appealing, but bear in mind earnings per share has approximately halved since the 2022 peak.

而且我们认为刚才讨论的那些动态意味着当前盈利远低于业务的长期盈利能力。

And we think the dynamics that we've just discussed mean that earnings are currently well below the long term earnings power of the business.

最后，关于Richelieu首席执行官的最后一点。

And finally, last word on Richelieu's chief executive.

他是那种让Marathon感兴趣的类型。

He's a type that appeals to Marathon.

首先，他显然对业务充满热情。

Well, firstly, he's clearly someone who is very passionate about the business.

我们见到他时，这一点非常明显。

And that really came through when we saw him.

大多数CEO不会给我们推荐书籍。

Most CEOs don't give us book recommendations.

而且我觉得他这么做，说明他很有长远眼光，对自己所在的行业有很深的思考。

And I think by doing that, he showed himself to be someone with a very long term mindset who thinks deeply about the industry he's in.

我们愿意和这样的CEO一起投资。

Those are the kind of CEOs we would want to be invested alongside.

那本书也让我们看到了他看待公司和商业模式的角度，这帮助我们更深入地理解业务，尽管目前市场低迷，但我们还是对投资前景充满信心。

The book also handed us the lens through which he sees his company and his business model and that has helped us to understand the business more deeply and become confident in the investment case, despite the currently depressed market.

这让我想起不久前，美联航的CEO在财报电话会议上推荐了马拉松的《资本周期》这本书，叫《资本回报》，这也说明美国航空业或许有一天也有希望。

Which reminds me that not very long ago, the chief executive of United Airlines on an earnings call recommended Marathon's capital Cycle book, Capital Returns, which shows there's also hope perhaps one day for The US airline industry.

好了，谢谢你，汤姆，我们很快再聊。

Anyhow, thank you, Tom, and we will speak again soon.

谢谢你的邀请。

Thank you for having me.

感谢你今天的时间。

Thank you for your time today.

希望大家收听下一期的《资本周期》。

I hope you will listen to the next edition of the Capital Cycle.

本通讯仅供参考。

This communication is provided for information purposes only.

请访问马拉松的网站和《全球投资评论》以获取更多信息，包括重要披露。

Please refer to Marathon's website and the Global Investment Reviews for further information, including important disclosures.