2027年泡沫破裂，英伟达财报前瞻，材料板块布局，Airbnb腾飞

如果你要预测，就告诉我一些我不知道的事。

If you're going to call your shot, tell me something I don't know.

说句不好听的，里面没什么新东西，所以他不能——

Respectfully, there's nothing in there that's So he can't

他不能那样做，因为正如你所说，他看的是经济数据。

do that because he's an he's looked to your point, he's looking at economic data.

他并不知道明年AI相关支出和相应收益是否会继续增长。

He doesn't have any insights into whether or not next year will be a continued year of AI related spending and the associated earnings

增长，好吧。

growth Okay.

所以从这一点来看，

So from that.

他不能，对。

He cannot Right.

他显然做不到，其他人也一样。

He obviously cannot do that nor can anyone else.

即使是那些预期要花钱的人，他们也不确定自己会做什么，因为市场条件可能会改变他们的想法。

Even the people that are expected to do the spending, they don't know for sure what they'll be doing because market conditions might change their minds.

他们可能会决定，你知道吗？

They may decide, you know what?

我们制定的这些资本支出计划，在25年已经超额完成了。

These CapEx plans we laid out, we exceeded them in '25.

在26年也超额完成了。

We exceeded them in '26.

也许27年我们不会超额完成，因为我们看到股价从高点下跌了40%，我们正在接受市场信号。

Maybe '27 is the year where we don't exceed them because we're looking at a share price that's 40% from a tie, and we're taking a market signal.

我喜欢，我喜欢一个好的看跌理由。

I love I love a good bear case.

我真的喜欢。

I really do.

我喜欢，你不觉得那是个好的看跌理由吗？

I like You don't think that's a good bear case?

不。

No.

这没什么意思。

It's not interesting.

我喜欢读那些我没想过的东西，然后我会说，天哪。

I like reading something that I haven't thought about, and I say, oh, shit.

那确实挺有说服力的。

That's that's pretty compelling.

好吧。

Okay.

那太基本了。

That's basic.

我们可以直接说，去你的，比尔·达德利。

We can move on by saying, screw you, Bill Dudley.

不。

No.

不。

No.

不。

No.

我就是，别这样。

I'm just come on.

我不是要骂比尔·达德利。

I'm not screw Bill Dudley.

不过，你觉得这件事引人注目吗，尤其是从谁那里传出来的？

Do you think it's do you think it's remarkable, though, who it's coming from?

不。

No.

你不觉得吗？

You don't?

不。

No.

我们通常能看到刚退休的美联储官员积极预测一年内泡沫破裂吗？

Do do we normally do we normally see recently retired former Fed officials actively predicting a bubble bursting within a year?

那个家伙，

That Dude,

现在每个人都在做播客或者写博客。

every every everybody's everybody's a sub a podcast or blogger now.

这就是

This is

所以他就像，他就像英国的王子公主一样，现在也开始做内容了？

So he's doing he's like, he's like the the, Kate he's like the prince and princess from England that they're doing content now?

对。

Yeah.

当然。

Sure.

我的意思是

I mean

等等。

Wait.

是威廉吗？

Is it William?

谁是那个哈里？

Who's the one Harry?

哈里和梅根·马克尔？

Harry and, Meghan Markle?

兄弟，我就是说说。

Dude, I'm just saying.

你分享了，他给了我们一个CAPE比率、盈利收益率、Tips收益率，还有巴菲特指标。

You shared you shared he he he gave us a cape ratio, the earnings yield, and the tips yield, and the buffet indicator.

好吧。

Alright.

我是说，老。

I mean, old.

好的。

Okay.

行。

Alright.

咱们聊聊，你想说点英伟达的事吗？

Let's talk oh, you wanna do some Nvidia stuff?

为什么英伟达的财报发布这么晚？

Why why does Nvidia report so late?

真是让人提不起劲。

It's so anticlimactic.

嗯，我们这边有OpenAI的消息。

Well, we we have this OpenAI stuff.

先聊这个吧。

Let's hit that first.

行。

Alright.

OpenAI 报告说它的收入增长到了67亿美元。

So OpenAI reported that its revenue grew to 6,700,000,000.

我觉得他们没正式公布过，但这个消息出来了。

I don't think they've reported anything, but this came out.

截至6月的三个月里，收入从第一季度的57亿美元增长到了67亿美元。

Its revenue grew to 6,700,000,000 in the three months ended in June, up from 5,700,000,000 in the first quarter.

这不算太厉害。

That's not awesome.

与此同时，它的营业利润率进一步跌入亏损。

Meanwhile, its operating margin sank further into the red.

而Anthropic在同一时期收入翻了一倍多，达到116亿美元。

Anthropic, meanwhile, more than doubled its revenue to 11,600,000,000 in the same period.

Anthropic那个人说他们有一天能实现300亿美元的收入。

The Anthropic guy said they could do 30,000,000,000,000 in revenue someday.

那是把所有年份加起来的总和吗？

Is that all the years added up combined?

还是他确实说了？

Or Did he did

他是一次性说的吗？

he one shot?

他有没有给出一个时间范围？

Did he give a did he did he give a time frame on that?

谢天谢地。

Thank god.

没有。

No.

因为到2020年、2021年、2026年，什么都有可能。

Because by 2020 by '21, '26, it's anything is possible.

通货膨胀每年涨3%。

Inflation keeps going up 3% a year.

我觉得他是在表达一个观点，就像SpaceX谈论其潜在市场规模那样。

I think he was I guess he was making the point, like, the same way that SpaceX talks about its TAM.

我不知道那是收入预测，还是说这家公司能发展到多大那种问题。

And I don't know if that's a revenue projection or, like, how big could this company get kind of thing.

我其实没听到。

I didn't I didn't actually hear.

我只是看到了标题。

I just I just saw the headlines.

我确实觉得

I do think

不管怎样，那都是一大笔钱。

It's a lot of money either way.

我确实觉得

I do think that

不要过度纠结看空的情况。

of to not overthink a bear case.

我们只是对好消息不再那么惊讶了。

It's just our ability to be less surprised at good news.

就拿英伟达来说，这就是个典型的例子。

Just look at Nvidia as a classic example of this.

对。

Yeah.

这只股票好几个月、好几个月都没怎么动过。

The stock has traded nowhere for months and months and months.

财报数据惊人，但市场已经不在乎了。

The earning the earnings numbers are astounding, but the market's over it.

就像在说，给我看点别的。

Like, show me something else.

你还有什么别的招吗？

What else you got?

好吧。

Alright.

明天收盘后会有财报。

Get earnings tomorrow after the close.

估值其实一整年都在压缩，甚至好几年都是这样，我们有一张很好的图表可以说明这一点。

The valuation's been compressing all year for multiple years actually, and we have great chart of that.

所以如果存在泡沫，那也不在英伟达身上。

So if there is a bubble, it's not in Nvidia.

现在有人说，好吧，估值上没有泡沫，但真正的泡沫在盈利上。

Now people have said, okay, there's no bubble in the valuation, but the actual bubble is in the earnings.

我理解这个观点，而且我不会嘲笑它，因为我不想让这话以后打脸。

And I understand that argument, and I don't I don't laugh at it because I don't want this to age badly.

他们明天晚上要公布财报，市场预期他们的盈利增长能达到98%。

They're gonna report a quarter tomorrow night where the street is expecting them to report 98% earnings growth.

而且这不像上个季度盈利只增长了5%，然后他们突然发布了一个新产品。

So and and that's not like they had 5% earnings growth last quarter, and they all of a sudden released a new, product.

他们多年来一直交出这样的成绩单。

They've been putting up quarters like this for years already.

所以如果这真的是盈利泡沫，那它持续的时间也太长了。

So if it is an earnings bubble, it's sure taken a long time.

你觉得这是盈利泡沫吗？

Do you think it's an earnings bubble?

有可能会崩掉。

Something to come undone.

你觉得这是盈利泡沫吗？

Do you think it's an earnings bubble?

我觉得更可能是提前透支的盈利泡沫，而不是大家傻乎乎地买这些东西，然后它就凭空消失了。

I think there's a higher likelihood that it's a pull forward earnings bubble than it's, everybody be stupid for buying all this stuff, and it's just gonna evaporate.

所以对我来说，提前透支的盈利泡沫就像是大家都在担心算力。

So I a pull forward earnings bubble to me is like everyone's worried about compute.

大家都在担心他们能不能拿到自己那份算力。

Everyone's worried about are they gonna get their slice of compute?

他们能不能兑现跟客户签的那些服务合同。

Are they gonna be able to deliver the services that they're contracting with their customers?

所以他们尽可能多地囤芯片。

And so they're stockpiling as as many chips as they can.

他们在建数据中心。

They are building data centers.

数据中心里不能没有芯片，所以你必须尽可能多地订购，以确保能拿到供应。

You can't build a data center with no chips in it, so you have to order as much as you can to make sure that you'll have access to the supply.

在我看来，这更像是提前消费的泡沫，而不是那种大规模的错误，比如买一堆没人需要的东西。

And that's more pull forward y to me than it is, like, this massive error of, like, buying things that no one's gonna need.

提问。

Question.

我有个问题。

I have a question.

如果真有盈利泡沫，那也是最无辜的那种，因为需求确实存在。

Where the if there's if there's an earnings bubble, it's it's the most innocent type of earnings bubble because the demand really is there.

好的。

Okay.

所以你对这些的了解比我多得多。

So you you know a lot more about this stuff than I do.

假如说需求是提前拉动的，那CUDA操作系统是不是也是故事的重要部分？即使芯片需求下降，人们还是需要在他们平台上运行这些东西，对吧？

If let's just say that there's a demand pull forward, isn't the CUDA operating system a major part of the story that even if the demand for the chips fall, there's still demand to operate these things on their platform?

也许这有点像CrowdStrike，还是我这个比较真的很蠢？

Maybe is it sort of similar to CrowdStrike, or am I making a really stupid comparison?

这个比较不蠢。

It's not a stupid comparison.

只是这跟主要观点是两码事。

It's just it's it's that's, like, orthogonal to the main point.

主要观点是，如果你建一个钢厂——就像重工业里人们想的那样——如果你建一个钢厂，二十年后你很可能还在用很多同样的设备。

The main point is if you build a steel mill, which is the way people think about, like, in heavy industry, if you build a steel mill, it's very likely you'll still be using a lot of the same equipment twenty years later.

如果你建一个炼油厂——我们自从七十年代以来就没建过——很可能你建的大部分东西还在运营，你只是在那里做维修，换换零件。

If you build an oil refinery, which we haven't done since the nineteen seventies, it's very likely that most of what you've built is still in operation, and you're making repairs and substituting parts here and there.

那就像运营一个重工业基地的常规维护成本。

And that's just like the regular maintenance cost of running a heavy industrial site.

数据中心就不一样了。

Data centers are different.

你知道吗，据估计，数据中心成本的50%是芯片。

Do you know it's an it's estimated 50% of the cost of a data center is the chips.

你知道吗？

Do you know that?

你知道这有多惊人吗？

You know how astounding that is?

问题是，这些芯片可能能用五年，但可能性不大。

And the thing is, these chips may have a useful life of five years, but it's unlikely.

这些芯片可能十年后还在用，但考虑到这项技术发展的速度，可能性非常小。

These chips may still be in use in ten years, but given the speed of the advance of what this technology can do, it's highly unlikely.

所以，英伟达在数据中心支出中的占比如此之高，即使新建数据中心的速度放缓，目前安装的GPU的维护和更换量也大得惊人，我认为英伟达可能是所有数据中心供应商股票中最安全的，你不太可能看到2029年还在用2024或2025年的GPU的情况。

And so Nvidia's portion of this data center center spend is such that even if there's a slowdown in new data centers being built, the amount of maintenance and replacement of the GPUs that are being installed today is so astounding that I think Nvidia is probably in the safest position of all of these data supplier stocks, you you you are not likely to see a situation where they're using 2024 and 2025 era GPUs in 2029.

你非常不可能看到这种情况。

You're very unlikely.

所以，即使因为人们恐慌，数据中心建设减半，你仍然需要芯片来供应已经建好的设施。

So even if the data center construction is cut in half because people get spooked, you're still gonna need chips to supply what you've already built.

那你打算怎么办？

What are you gonna do?

不买替换的芯片？而且所有的推理运算都会加速芯片损耗，虽然不如训练那么快，但也相当快。

Not buy the replacements, and all this inferencing burns out the chips, not as fast as training, but pretty fast.

他们还在说，因为我们在AI方面做的所有新事情，推理需求会爆炸式增长。

And they're talking about this explosion in inference because of all the new things we're doing with AI.

那你就得更换GPU，而英伟达会持续为这些数据中心供货，直到永远。

The you're gonna have to replace GPUs, and Nvidia will be supplying these data centers for as far as the eye could see.

不是几年，而是几十年。

Not for years, for decades.

几十年。

For decades.

那你觉得为什么它

So why do you think why do you

会以16倍的远期市盈率交易呢？

think it's trading at 16 times forward earnings?

这是不是最明显、却容易被忽视的做多机会？

Is it the most obvious long hiding in plain sight?

Marvell 现在势头非常强劲。

Marvell is coming on very strong.

博通也在强势崛起。

Broadcom is coming on very strong.

他说的对，我们拿 Marvell 来说吧。

He's comp let's take Marvell.

Marvell 正在为亚马逊定制 ASIC 芯片，而亚马逊是他们最大的客户。

Marvell is building custom ASICs for custom Amazon's their biggest customer.

亚马逊正在制造 Trainium 芯片，这些是专用集成电路。

So Amazon's building Tranium chips, which are application specific integrated circuits.

它们的用途没有 GPU 那么广泛。

They do not have as broad of a use as a GPU.

它们的性能也不如 GPU 强大。

They're not as powerful.

它们的集群方式不一样。

They're not clustered the same way.

你知道，你拿一万个芯片组成一个集群，然后放进……其实不是这么做的。

You know, you take a take a take a cluster of 10,000 chips and and put them in a it's not the way that's being done.

但亚马逊的Tranium芯片系列就是这样的。

But Amazon, it's Tranium line of chips.

Alphabet也在做芯片。

Alphabet's making chips.

微软也在做芯片。

Microsoft is making chips.

Meta、苹果也都在做自己的芯片。

Meta, Apple is making its own chips.

他们都在用专用集成电路，而这些超大规模数据中心用的定制芯片，都是Marvell在做。

They're they're utilizing application specific integrated circuits, and that custom chip making for the hyperscalers is coming out of Marvell.

这并不意味着亚马逊不买GPU了。

This doesn't mean Amazon's not buying GPUs.

这并不意味着Gemini没有GPU就无法运行，但这确实是计算建设方面的新竞争。

Doesn't mean, Gemini is running without GPUs, but it is new competition for the build out of compute.

他们为什么想用ASIC呢？

Why would they wanna use ASICs?

如果他们自己制造，就可以根据数据中心内他们认为重要的用途进行定制。

Well, if they build them themselves, they can customize them for exactly the uses within their data centers that they see as being important.

对吧？

Okay?

所以这就是Marvell在做的事情。

So that's what Marvell is doing.

博通也参与其中。

Broadcom is is in there as well.

显然，AMD总是在追赶别人的脚步。

Obviously, AMD is always nipping at somebody's heels.

英伟达不可能永远保持86%的市场份额。

It's it's not gonna be an 86% market share story for Nvidia forever.

所以我觉得，来自三千个不同玩家的竞争，包括他们自己的客户，是市盈率缩水的原因之一。

And so I think competition from 3,000 different players, including their own customers, is part of why we're seeing that multiple shrink.

我还觉得大家有点疲劳了。

I also think there's fatigue.

有点厌倦了。

There's boredom.

这已经占标普的7%了。

This is already 7% of the S and P.

投资者还能买多少呢？

How much more can investors buy?

比如，如果你不是指数基金，你会想让英伟达占9%吗？

Like like, if you're not an index, how do you wanna be 9% Nvidia?

你想让它占10%吗？

Do you wanna be 10?

所以这里面也有这个因素。

So there's some element of that.

这是一家市值五万亿美元的公司。

It's a $5,000,000,000,000 company.

我们从未见过哪家公司能达到五万亿美元。

We've never seen a company get 5,000,000,000,000.

总有一天，我们会有五十家五万亿美元的公司，到时候会有人回顾历史做研究，然后说，这就是股票市盈率无法再超过二十倍的临界点。

We don't one day, we'll have 50 companies at 5,000,000,000,000, and somebody will look back and do a study, and they'll say, this is the threshold beyond which stocks can no longer trade at 20 times earnings.

所以这就是我的答案。

So that's my answer.

我和Chart今年早些时候做了一张图，展示了为什么英伟达的市盈率低于市场平均水平——它有个规模问题。

Chart can and I made a chart, earlier in the year, showed the reason why Nvidia is trading at, below market multiple, it has a size problem.

如果它的远期市盈率是18倍、20倍、25倍，或者30倍，不管历史上最好的成长股交易在什么水平，它都会显得太大了。

If it were trading at 18 times forward, 20 or or 25, what 30, whatever it was, Whatever the best growth stocks in the market have historically traded at, it would just be too big.

市场消化不了这么大市值的股票。

And the market can't digest a stock of that size.

最后一件事。

Last thing.

我才不在乎别人怎么想。

I don't give a shit what anyone thinks.

这些股票最终会变成周期性的。

These stocks are gonna be cyclical in the end.

而且过去三年市盈率的下降，我认为是投资大众在承认，99%的盈利增长季度确实很棒。

And this derating of the multiple over the last three years, I believe, is an acknowledgment on the part of the investing public that 99% earnings growth quarters are awesome.

他们的产品很棒。

Their products are awesome.

他们的竞争地位很棒，等等等等。

Their competitive position is awesome, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.

但这些都是周期性公司。

But these are cyclical companies.

他们卖的是半导体，而半导体是周期性的。

They are selling a semiconductors are cyclical.

也许我最后会错。

I'll maybe I'll end up wrong.

也许这种情况会持续二十年不间断，但历史告诉我们，如果你读过《芯片战争》，或者你在华尔街待了二三十年，你就会知道在这个领域，涨得越高，跌得越惨。

Maybe this will go on for twenty years uninterrupted, but the history, if you read chip war, chip wars or if you have been on Wall Street for twenty, thirty years, you know that what goes up must come down in this space.

有趣的是，有趣的是，是有趣的吗？

Funny funnily enough funnily is it funnily?

不管怎么说。

Either way.

可笑的是，讽刺的是，直到两年前半导体行业疯狂上涨之前，软件股的估值一直比半导体股高得多，其中一个原因就是投资者知道软件行业的周期性比硬件行业弱。

Laughably enough, ironically enough, one of the reasons software stocks have historically had such a higher multiple than semiconductors up until two years ago when the semis just went wild is that investors know that software is less cyclical than hardware.

而且投资者知道，从历史上看，软件行业能够超越周期，而半导体行业从来做不到这一点。

And investors know that historically, software can outgrow a cycle in a way that semiconductors never have.

这次可能不是这样，但历史上，软件公司的增长率比半导体公司高，估值也更高，正是因为这个原因。

That may prove to be not true this time, but historically, software company growth software companies have gotten higher multiples than growth semiconductor companies for precisely that reason.

很多人要么入行时间不够长，没学到这一点，要么就是忘了。

And a lot of people either aren't doing this long enough to have learned that or forgot about it.

但我确实认为，有一股重力在压低Marvel、英伟达和博通的估值。

But I do think there's a gravity that is pushing down on the multiples of Marvel, of Nvidia, of Broadcom.

他们明白，这些公司即将进入一个阶段，在下一个升级周期里会互相撕咬，不是每个人都能赢。

They understand that these companies are gonna go into a phase where they rip each other's throats out for the next upgrade cycle, and not everybody can win.

这就是为什么它们不再像三年前那样以30倍或40倍的市盈率出售。

And that is why they're not selling at 30 or 40 times earnings the way that they were three years ago.

关于明天的英伟达，你有什么要说的吗？

Anything to say about Nvidia tomorrow?

我给你讲讲这些故事线。

I'll give you the the storylines.

这些是那些关心这只股票和AI交易的人最密切关注的事情。

These are the things that the people that care about the stock and care about the AI trade are watching the most closely.

我们先从华尔街对英伟达的共识目标价说起，现在是30.05美元。

Let's start by saying the Wall Street consensus price target for Nvidia is now $30.05.

现在股价是多少？

Where is it right now?

2.12美元。

$2.12.

这比现在的股价高出将近50%。

That is almost 50% higher than where the stock is.

所以你别指望靠上调评级或目标价来解套。

So you're not gonna get bailed out by a by upgrade, price target lifts.

如果黄仁勋在电话会议上表现很出色，可能会有很多重申评级的。

You could get a lot of reiterations if Jensen kicks ass on the conference call.

但是，他们还能做什么呢？

But, like, what are they gonna do?

把目标价提到3.20美元、3.30美元？

Take the target to $3.20, $3.30?

所以这是第一点。

So that's number one.

这里，这本身就是一个故事。

The here, that's its own story.

这里有七个故事线。

Here are the seven story lines.

第一，营收预期高得惊人。

Number one, the revenue bar is staggering.

市场一致预期是季度营收950亿美元。

Consensus is $95,000,000,000 in quarterly revenue.

数据中心业务将达到850到870亿美元，几乎占了全部。

Data center is gonna be 85 to 87,000,000,000 or almost all of that.

作为对比，一年前英伟达这个季度的营收是260亿美元。

For context, Nvidia did 26,000,000,000 for this quarter a year ago.

哇。

Wow.

你想想看。

I want you to think about that.

黄仁勋的指引

Jensen's guidance

你说得对，那已经结束了。

your point, that's that's in that's over.

就像，投资者已经不再意识到这一点了。

Like, investors are no longer aware of that.

我们知道。

We know.

对。

Right.

所以黄仁勋的指引是91。

Just so Jensen's guidance is 91.

所以93到95是市场的预期。

So the the 93 to 95 is the street.

第二个故事线，Blackwell的爬坡和芯片良率。

Storyline two, the Blackwell ramp and chip yields.

Blackwell是新的核心产品。

The Blackwell is the new central product.

如果你打电话给英伟达，我想要最新最热的东西。

If you call up Nvidia, I want the newest hottest shit.

就是这样。

That's what it is.

投资者想听的是产能爬坡的情况。

Investors wanna hear about production scaling.

显然，这些三纳米芯片是台积电在制造。

That's obviously Taiwan Semi is is who's making these things on the three nanometer chips.

他们想听的是供应受限的情况。

They wanna hear about supply constraints.

他们关心良率，也就是制造过程中有多少芯片会报废。

They wanna yield is like how many chips go bad in the manufacturing process.

比如，每一轮能产出多少颗。

Like, how many do we get out of each turn?

所以他们听得很细，就怕听到执行上有什么闪失。

So they're listening very granularly for any sign of a slip up in execution.

那客户范围扩大这块呢？

What about customer customers broadening out?

上个季度，他们公布了超大规模客户的收入数字。

Last last quarter, they broke out the number of the hyperscaler revenue.

对吧？

Right?

五月份，他们第一次把卖给超大规模客户和其他客户的收入分开列出来了。

In May, for the first time, they categorized what they sell to the hyperscalers versus everybody else.

当然，超大规模客户占了大部分业务。

And, obviously, the hyperscalers is most of the business.

所以，如果除了亚马逊和Alphabet之外还有其他地方的需求，那当然好了。

So, yes, it would be nice if there were demand coming from somewhere other than Amazon and and Alphabet.

所以，我们拭目以待吧。

So stay tuned for that.

Vera Rubin架构，那就是接下来要来的东西。

The Vera Rubin architecture, that's that's what's coming.

那会是下一个大事件。

That's gonna be the next next thing.

黄仁勋已经说过，到2027年，Vera Rubin升级带来的收入可见度高达一万亿美元。

Jensen has already said he has a trillion dollars in revenue visibility through calendar twenty twenty seven for the Vera Rubin upgrade.

所以我们就相信他说的吧。

So let's take him at his word.

所以他会确认这个数字还在上升。

So he's gonna confirm that is going up.

这不是盈利泡沫吗？

Not an earnings bubble?

嗯，看起来他觉得这事已经稳了。

Well, it seems like he he thinks he's got that in the bag.

第三点是Vera Rubin的发布时间表。

Three is the launch timeline for Vera Rubin Vera Rubin.

所以如果延期，对股价来说会很麻烦，因为延期会迫使人们调整他们对近期季度的预期。

So a delay would be very problematic for the stock because a delay would force people to change their near term quarter outlooks.

所以我们想听到的是，一切按计划进行。

So we wanna hear that that's on schedule.

第四点，对中国的出口限制。

Four, China export restrictions.

在这个季度期间，他们确实获得了批准，并且据说已经开始在中国销售了。

So during the course of this quarter, they did get approval and allegedly started selling in China.

我觉得这还没反映在数据里，但同样，这也是大家关注的一个话题，都在听相关的评论。

It's I don't think that's in the numbers, but, again, it's a storyline that people are listening to the commentary on.

第五点是超大规模数据中心客户的定制芯片威胁，就是我们俩刚才聊了十分钟的那个。

Five is the hyperscaler custom silicon threat, which you and I just spent ten minutes on.

我就不再多展开了。

I won't go terribly further.

谷歌的TPU，亚马逊的Trainium，那个还是Marvell做的。

Google's TPUs, Amazon's Tranium, which, again, that's Marvell.

微软和Meta也在搞自己的定制加速器，也就是XPU。

Microsoft and Meta are building custom accelerators or XPUs.

大家肯定想听Jensen怎么回应这个竞争问题。

People are going to want to hear Jensen answer the question about that competition.

嗯。

Mhmm.

那当然就是第六点了。

That'll be six, of course.

第六点是毛利率走势。

Six is gross margin trajectory.

他们的利润率，说压力不太准确，但在开发新产品时，利润率确实有所下降。

They they margins this pressure would be the wrong way to say it, but margins had come in a bit as they were developing new products.

他们希望再次看到75%以上的水平。

They wanna see 75% plus again.

所以当我们谈论良率时，良率会是其中的一部分。

And so when we talk about yields, yields will be a part of that.

第七点，我不知道这次电话会议会不会提到，或者分析师们是不是太拘谨不敢问。

Number seven, I don't know if this comes up on the call or if analysts are too, or too prissy to ask.

财报发布前有28笔内部人士卖出。

28 insider sells in the lead up to earnings.

这可能就是股价连续下跌十二天的部分原因。

This could be part of why the stock is, down twelve straight days.

我也不确定。

I don't know.

但我觉得在财报出来之前，内部人卖出得先停在一个某个水平上，所以也许不是这样。

But I think the insider selling has to stop at a certain threshold before we get to the earnings, so maybe not.

相对于市值来说，金额不算大，但在那个价位上内部人卖出，看起来也不像是对公司有多大信心。

It's not a huge dollar amount relative to the market cap, but it's also not like the greatest vote of confidence at the levels that that those insider sales.

我今天跟肖恩也提过这一点，所以这些就是主要看点。

I made this point with Sean today on t so those are the storylines.

你对这些有什么看法吗，还是我们漏掉了什么？

Do you have any any thoughts on those, or am I are we missing anything?

没有。

No.

没有。

No.

首先，得给你点赞。

You you first of all, credit to you.

你把整个故事梳理得非常好，讲得很清楚。

You did a fantastic job laying out the story, so that was very well done.

最近财报发布后，股价表现一直不太好。

The stock has not been treated well after earnings recently.

嗯，确实是这样。

Well So that's yeah.

我觉得这真的是一个非常关键的点。

That's that's really I think that's a really key point.

给大家讲讲他们现在看到的是什么情况。

Tell people what they're looking at here.

所以最近四次财报发布，财年有点特殊。

So the last four times have reported, and the fiscal year is a little bit weird.

这就是为什么你会在这里看到‘27’这个数字。

That's why you see '27 in here.

市场并不买账。

The market has not liked it.

乔什，你和我都在，你怎么看？

Josh, you and I were on what are your thoughts?

我记得有一次，具体哪个节目我记不清了，但这只股票被狠狠打击了。

I believe during one of these or I can't remember what show it was, but the stock got smoked.

对。

Yes.

这是一只财报后反应很糟糕的股票。

This is a terrible post earnings reaction stock.

这种情况可能会改变，而且从这张图上看，它并不总是这样。

That could change, and it hasn't always been that way as you can see on this chart.

但你真的得往回看很久，才能找到一个让第二天市场非常兴奋的季度。

But it really you have to go back a while to find a quarter that people were super enthusiastic about the next day.

这张图上看的就是财报后第二天的回报。

All you're looking at is next day returns on this chart.

你知道吗？

You know what?

市场方面，我不知道他还能说什么能让股价涨8%。

The market so I don't know what he could say for the stock to go up 8%.

他还有什么没说过的话吗？

What hasn't he already said?

但有时候投资者就是会改变

But sometimes investors just change

他们的想法。

their mind.

好的。

Okay.

嗯，SpaceX确实说过他们全力支持英伟达。

Well, SpaceX did SpaceX did say that they're all in on Nvidia.

如果我在英伟达的投资者关系部门，我会告诉他们，听着。

If I were in the investor relations suite at Nvidia, I would what I would be telling them is, listen.

如果你不在乎股价反应，那没问题。

If you don't care about the stock price reaction, no problem.

我当然在乎。

Of course, I do.

好。

Okay.

但假设你穿着件皮夹克，那肯定是在装酷。

But let's assume you're wearing a fucking leather jacket.

你确实在乎别人怎么想。

You do care what people think.

对吧？

Okay?

行。

Alright.

聊聊太空吧。

Talk about space.

你不需要说得太具体。

You don't have to be specific.

聊聊机器人吧。

Talk about robots.

因为如果英伟达的故事有了新的篇章——不是说它需要，毕竟盈利增长99%——但如果TAM要扩大，或者话题要从ASIC竞争转移开，那就会是自动化和自动驾驶汽车、火箭、轨道数据中心和机器人。

Because if there's a new leg to the Nvidia story, not that it needs one with 99% earnings growth, but if there's going to be an expansion of the TAM or a change the subject from ASIC competition, it's gonna be automation and self driving cars and rockets and data centers in orbit and robots.

我们来聊聊机器人吧，因为这可能是一个全新的TAM，目前还没体现在股价里，或者对市盈率的影响不大。

Let's talk about robots because that could be a whole new TAM that's not in the stock or not meaningfully in the multiple.

我不知道他们会不会这么做，所以我会告诉那些持有这只股票、准备迎接这个季度的人，当然，什么事都可能发生，我和Michael也不知道。

I don't know if they'll do that, so I would just tell people who are in the name going into this quarter, of course, anything can happen, and Michael and I don't know.

但在过去的二十六个季度里，他们都有发布财报。

But over the last twenty six quarters, they've reported.

那要追溯到2020年第一季度。

So that's back to q one twenty twenty.

所以其中一半的季度是在AI时代。

So half of those quarters in the AI era.

有12次股价涨跌幅达到5%。

12 times the stock has moved up or down by 5%.

这很了不起，意味着它几乎不怎么波动。

That's remarkable, which means it almost never does a thing.

如果看过去六年财报发布后的平均次日回报，是上涨2%。

If you look at the average next day return, it's plus 2% after an earnings call over the last six years.

但有两次巨大的反应拉高了平均值。

But there were two massive reactions skewing that.

2023年5月

In May 2023

那是

It was

涨了24%。

plus two exploded 24%.

对。

Yeah.

然后在2024年2月，涨了16%。如果你把这两次极端情况去掉，股票第二天平均基本持平。

And then in February '24, plus 16, if you pull those out, the stock is typically flat on average the next day.

所以，让我先给你铺垫一下背景。

So here's the let me set the table for you.

920亿美元的收入是那个指引的中位数。

92,000,000,000 in revenue is the midpoint of that guidance.

这相当于同比增长97%。

That's 97% year over year growth.

每股收益是2.09美元。

Earnings, two dollars and nine cents.

那将是99%的增长。

That would be 99% growth.

息税前利润是610亿美元。

EBIT, 61,000,000,000.

那将是同比增长102%。

That would be a 102% year over year.

最后一点，我觉得这对所有在听在看的人来说，一辈子都适用：就算你找到了增长最疯狂的股票，也不代表它的股价会对财报或其他消息做出让你赚钱的反应。

And the final point to make here, and I think this is applicable for everybody listening and watching for as long as they live, just because you identify the stock with the most insane growth rate, that does not guarantee you a reaction in the stock to earnings or other news that's gonna make you money.

如果真有这么简单，我们直接买英伟达，等它报出102%的EBIT增长，然后就能带着无限财富逍遥去了。

If it were that simple, we would just automatically buy Nvidia, let them report a 102 growth in EBIT, and sail off into the sunset with unlimited wealth.

但长期以来，这只股票的股东们经历的根本不是这么回事。

That is not how things have gone for shareholders in this stock for a very long time.

所以，了解这些数字、痴迷于增长率，这些确实挺有意思的。

So knowing the numbers, fetishizing the growth rates, these are interesting things.

但它们并不能保证股价上涨，因为市场很聪明。

They do not guarantee you upside in the share price because the market is smart.

市场早就把这些都消化了。

It is way ahead of this.

回到之前和达德利聊的话题。

Back to the Dudley conversation.

当我们说市场有前瞻性时，没人会在意英伟达过去九十天盈利增长了99%。

When we talk about anticipatory, nobody gives a shit that Nvidia grew earnings by 99% over the last ninety days.

他们担心的是2027年和2028年，而股价正是基于这个在交易。

They're worried about 27 and '28, and that's what the stock is trading on.

说得太对了，姐妹。

Amen, sister.

好。

Alright.

我们刚刚在第一个话题上花了四十分钟，四十二分钟，所以接下来得加快进度，把后面的内容讲完。

We just did forty minutes forty two minutes on on topic one, so we're gonna have to move we're gonna have to move the rest of the show along.

不过这才是最重要的事情。

This is the most important thing, though.

现在的情况就是这样。

This is what's going on.

对吧？

Yay?

这确实很重要。

It's important.

这很重要。

It's important.

好的。

Okay.

你有什么要说的？

What do you got?

好。

Alright.

我们来聊聊，有个里程碑达成了。

Let's talk, there was a milestone reached.

向景顺致敬。

Shout out to Invesco.

等权重RSP ETF的资产规模突破了1000亿美元。

The equal weight RSP ETF crossed a $100,000,000,000 in assets.

就在几年前，2020年的时候，虽然是在大跌之后，或者甚至在大跌之前，也就150亿美元左右。

And just a couple of years ago in 2020, granted after the fall, or even pre fall, it was like 15,000,000,000.

2020年的时候是100亿。

It was 20 it was 10,000,000,000 in 2020.

这东西从低点涨了10倍。

This thing is 10 x off of lows.

天哪。

Shit.

这钱可不少。

It's a lot of money.

谁

Who's

这些新钱都是谁投进来的？

who is the all this new money in this?

是机构吗？

Is this institutions?

竞争激烈。

Competitive.

我的意思是，

I mean,

散户不会买等权重的标普500。

retail retail doesn't buy equal weight S and P.

是不是有人想投资股市，但又不想完全承受

Is this people that wanna be allocated to the stock market but don't wanna face the full brunt

对。

Sure.

AI问题的冲击？

Of an AI issue?

我觉得就是这样。

That's what I think it is.

对。

Sure.

所以这让我想到了我们可用的不同类型的工具。

So it got me thinking about the different type of instruments that we have available to us.

你再把这个跟我Robin Hood应用里看到的东西对比一下。

And you juxtapose that against something that I saw in my Robin Hood app.

而且，我可是Robin Hood的忠实用户。

And, I'm a big fan of Robin Hood.

每天都用。

Use it every day.

但看到这个，我真是直摇头，Josh。

But I saw this and I just shook my head, Josh.

我就是这么做的。

It's what I did.

我们还有，不，

We've got No.

十五分钟的市场。

Fifteen minute markets.

人们可以赌各种加密货币在未来十五分钟内的价格走势，因为这是美国，真是的。

Are able to gamble on what the price of various cryptocurrencies will do over the next fifteen minutes because this is America, damn it.

然后呢，当天晚些时候或者那周，我看到杰弗里·帕塔克发推说，Defiance已经注册了16只单股ETF，这些ETF会按小时重置杠杆，因为谁他妈会去交易日杠杆股票啊？

And so, then also later in the day or week, I saw Jeffrey Patak tweet that defiance has registered 16 single stock ETFs that will reset their leverage on an hourly basis because who the hell could trade daily leverage stocks?

那也太无聊了。

That is so boring.

打住。

Stop.

这是什么？

What is this?

单股ETF。

Single stock ETF.

它重置什么？

What is it resetting?

你先解释一下。

So try it off for a second.

我不明白，它到底重置的是什么？

I don't understand what it's what is it resetting?

好的。

Alright.

所以，你之所以能看到一只股票一年涨了50%，而它的两倍杠杆版本只涨了55%，是因为它并不保证你在长期内的收益结果。

So the reason why you are able to see a stock go up 50% over a year, and the double x the two times levered version of that stock go up 55% is because it does not guarantee you to what's the outcome over an extended period of time.

对。

Yeah.

所以

So

我知道你明白，我是在跟观众说。

I know you understand I'm talking to the audience.

所以，按天来看，你会获得两倍的敞口。

So on a day by day basis, you will get two times the exposure.

但波动性是对收益的一种税。

But volatility is a tax on returns.

所以，如果你涨1%，跌1%，再涨1%，再跌1%，最终你不会是持平的，因为波动性会侵蚀收益。

So if you're up 1% down, 1% up over percent down, you're not flat eventually the volatility.

如果你涨到二加三，它就会侵蚀你的收益。

And if you dive up to two plus three, like it just it eats into the returns.

好的。

Alright.

所以如果你现在不是按天来做，你看，你那是“蓝色钢铁”的表情吗？

So if you are now doing that, not on a daily basis, you look is that your blue steel face?

你那个发型看起来像《超级名模》里的祖兰德。

You look like Zoolander with that hair.

我喜欢。

I love it.

什么？

What?

他们做什么？

What do they do?

基础？

The base?

对。

Yeah.

就是蓝钢表情。

It's blue steel.

等等。

Wait.

我想搞清楚。

I'm but I'm trying to understand.

所以这是给日内交易者用的，想要的是五倍杠杆吗？

So this is for a day trader that wants to be wants is it five x?

不是。

It's No.

他们……我……

They I

我不知道杠杆有多少，但我跟你说，这玩意儿就是加了特效的日内交易，猛得很。

don't know how much leverage there is, but I'm just telling you, it's intraday shit on steroids.

它每小时重置一次。

It resets hourly.

所以我不太清楚具体是怎么运作的，但重点是——你说吧。

So I don't know the mechanics exactly how it works, but the broader point is well, go ahead.

这是给谁用的？

Who is it for?

交易员。

Traders.

什么样的交易员会做这个？

Who what what trader is doing this?

我们拭目以待。

We will find out.

我们拭目以待。

We will find out.

听着。

Listen.

我们刚才在和托德·斯通聊天。

We were talking to Todd Stone.

这就是那个意大利面大炮。

This is the spaghetti cannon.

如果不管用，就关掉它。

If it doesn't work, shut it down.

谁在乎呢？

Who cares?

花不了多少钱。

Doesn't doesn't cost much.

关掉它。

Shut it down.

总之，我让Claude按照你的说法搞了个资本烹饪器。

So anyway, I had Claude put together a capital cooker in your words.

我都等不及要试试了。

I can't wait to do this.

一个资本烹饪器。

A capital cooker.

从最基础、最无聊的投资，到日内交易，以及中间的所有东西。

In order of the most basic boring shit investment to intraday and everything in between.

那我们开始吧。

So here we go.

这就是我们的资本烹饪器。

This is our capital cooker.

这太棒了。

This is so good.

第一，就是现金。

Number one, just cash.

国库券、货币市场，非常非常无聊的东西。

T bills, money market, very, very boring shit.

然后是Ben Carlson的第二名，设定好就忘掉的目标基金。

Then you've got the Ben Carlson's number two, the set it and forget it targeted funds.

再往风险谱系上走一点，就是贝塔，就是纯粹的市场贝塔，不管是标普还是全债指数，反正你就是获得市场敞口。

Then a little bit further out on the risk spectrum, you've got beta, just plain market beta, whether it's the S and P or the total bond, whatever it is, you just you get market exposure.

然后再往前走一点。

Then you go a little bit further.

你想玩点花样。

You want to get a little bit cute.

我们有一些因子和板块，比如我们刚才提到的等权重，再加点智能贝塔进去。

We've got some factors and some sectors, whether it's the equal weight that we just mentioned, sprinkle some smart beta in there.

你想要一些板块敞口。

You want some sector exposure.

好。

Okay.

一切都没问题。

Everything's fine.

然后还有，最近市场上非常非常非常流行的，就是那些设计好的结果产品。

And then you've got, recently coming to market very, very, very popular are the engineered outcomes.

说到缓冲ETF，还有一些期权叠加策略，像Jeppe提到的那些，以及很多结构化产品。

Talking about the buffer ETFs, some of the option overlay shot to Jeppe and a lot of the structured products.

然后我们开始加点料。

And then we start to spice it up a little bit.

我们有加密货币，还有加密国债。

We've got crypto, and we've got crypto treasuries.

然后还有YieldMAX。

And then we've got the YieldMAX.

YieldMAX，我不知道它是什么。

The YieldMAX, I don't know what know

就是那个看涨期权卖出策略。

what the Call word call selling option in

基本上，就是140%的分配率。

Basically basically, a 140% distributions.

对。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

当然。

Sure.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

还有杠杆ETF，不管是针对个股还是指数的。

You've got the levered ETFs, whether it's individual stocks or, or on indexes.

现在我们说到有趣的部分了。

And now we get to the fun stuff.

现在还有博彩ETF要推出。

We've got gambling ETFs coming out.

我们和Todd Stone聊过事件合约基金。

We spoke with Todd Stone about event contract funds.

而且有几家公司刚刚申请了NHL球队的期货。

And a a couple of companies just filed for NHL team futures.

我完全不知道为什么。

I have no idea why.

我完全不知道为什么NHL会是第一个。

I have no idea why the NHL NHL was first.

也许联盟有它的原因。

Maybe there's a league reason.

我真是搞不懂。

I have no freaking idea.

最后，乔什，别以为这就完了。

And then finally, and don't think this is the end, Josh.

我们还没碰到最终的大Boss呢。

This is we have not reached the the the final boss.

我们还有日内，我是说，零到期日的产品。

We've got intraday I mean, zero date to expiration.

噗。

Poof.

无聊。

Boring.

日内杠杆ETF。

Intraday intraday levered ETFs.

我喜欢。

I love it.

首先，太棒了。

First first of all, bravo.

我喜欢这个。

I love that thing.

我们多聊聊这个。

Let's let's do more with that.

两点。

Two points.

你还记得《疯狂假期之赌城之旅》吗？

Do you remember National Lampoon's Vegas vacation?

我没说过。

I didn't say it.

好吧。

Okay.

那绝对是经典，但它是部烂片，不过烂得特别好看。

It's a absolute classic, but it's a bad movie, but such a great bad movie.

正合你的口味。

It's right up your alley.

对。

Yep.

那是最后一部有切维·切斯演的格里斯沃尔德系列。

It's the last Griswolds with with Chevy Chase.

他带着全家去了拉斯维加斯。

Takes the family to Vegas.