怀疑但不恐惧，SpaceX 报告出炉，Netflix 大换血，AI 债券守夜人，Bending Spoons

谢谢。

Thank you.

说到恐惧。

Speaking of fear.

好的。

All right.

所以当我们和Jurrien Timmer连线的时候，我分享了RSP除以SPY的图表，我说这根橡皮筋能拉伸的程度是有限的。

So when we were on with Jurrien Timmer, I shared the chart of RSP divided by SPY, and I said this rubber band can only stretch so far.

这又不是在比较十年期收益率和强生股价，对吧？

It's not like we're comparing the 10-year divided by the price of Johnson & Johnson, right?

它们完全不相干。

They're completely unrelated.

请打开图表，RSP对SPY的比率。

Chart on, please, the ratio of RSP to SPY.

而且我们刚开始讨论市场广度有多糟糕的时候，它就大幅飙升了。

And we had a massive rip just as we got started talking about how terrible ... breadth was.

你有个不错的反弹。

You had a pretty decent rebound.

瑞安上周发推说，标普500里有378只股票上涨，这是自6月12日以来最多的。

Ryan tweeted last week you had 378 stocks in the S&P 500 that were higher, which was the most since June 12th.

而且今天又是一个市场宽度很强的日子。

And also, today, we had another very strong breadth day.

有304只股票上涨，但这就是所谓的“小心你所求的”，因为标普500指数本身涨幅还不到30个基点。

304 stocks were up, and yet this is sort of the be careful what you wish for because the S&P 500, the index, was not even up 30 basis points.

所以亚当继续打破那种认为市场宽度越广就必然对股市有利的迷思。

So Adam continued to dispel the myth that more breadth is necessarily bullish for the stock market.

这很直观。

It's intuitive.

但这并不是事实。

It's just not true.

我今天在电视上说，实际上，高油价和高利率对股市是最好的，因为当人们感到紧张时，他们会卖掉那些无关紧要的小股票，然后买入苹果和微软，从而推动市场上涨。

I said on TV today, actually, the high oil and high interest rate thing is the best thing for the stock market because when people get nervous, they sell all the little stocks that don't matter, and they buy Apple and Microsoft, which make the market go up.

所以这是市场上现在最奇怪、最反常的现象，但这确实就是今年秋天发生的事。

So it's the strangest, it's the most perverse idea in the markets right now, but that's literally what's gone on this fall.

我觉得这就是为什么多头们有点不满足，但空头们也没能得到他们想要的结果，因为利率飙升，人们抛售那些市值200亿美元的公司，但这根本没什么用，因为大公司才是那些资金流向的接收方，这些股票保持坚挺，标普指数就像是在说：‘行吧。’

Which I think is why the bulls are sort of unsatisfied, but then also the bears are just not getting their satisfaction because rates spike, people dump all these $20 billion market cap companies, and it doesn't fucking matter because the big guys are the recipients of those flows, and those stocks hold up, and the S&P is like, "Fine."

所以现在的情况真的很诡异。

So it's a really weird situation right now.

这是一个非常奇怪的局面。

It's a very bizarre dynamic.

我们一直在等待，看着市场宽度不断恶化——

We were waiting, watching the breadth continue to deteriorate-

……一直等着。

... and waiting.

指数到底什么时候会下跌？

When is the index going to fall?

周二通胀数据火热，周三通胀更热。

And you got hot inflation on Tuesday, hotter inflation on Wednesday.

利率降了，坏消息反而成了底部信号。

Rates came in and bad news marks the bottom.

我知道这通常是正常现象，但标普只跌了2.5%，这动态太奇怪了。

I guess that's sort of how it normally works, but with the S&P only off 2.5%, very strange dynamic.

我们来用Adam的那个方法把这个话题结束吧。

Let's do this Adam thing to finish this topic.

Adam写了一篇文章——Adam Parker，Trivariad，节目的朋友。

So Adam wrote about-- Adam Parker, Trivariad, friend of the show.

他会和我们一起在百老汇，顺便说一句，票已经卖光了。

He will be with us on Broadway, which by the way, we sold out.

感谢每一位购票的朋友。

Thank you to everybody who bought a ticket.

真是难以置信。

Unbelievable.

我们爱你们，感激你们，如果你们有幸抢到这些票，我保证，我们会玩得很开心。

We love you and appreciate you, and if you were lucky enough to have snagged one of these tickets, I promise you, we're going to have a great time.

亚当说，"很多投资者一直在抱怨，指数虽然保持在高位，但市场集中度高，市场广度弱。"

Adam said, "Many investors have been lamenting the fact that while the index has remained elevated, market concentration has been high and breadth has been weak."

他说，"这话听起来挺有道理，但再说一次，说你需要良好的市场广度，这显然是不对的。"

He says, "That sounds intelligent, but again, it's demonstrably false that you need good market breadth."

所以他去看一个叫——我记得25年前，当我还是个年轻的经纪人，刚开始学习技术分析时，人们就在谈论这个，但后来我很少听人提起。

So he looks at something called-- And I remember people talking about this 25 years ago when I was a young broker first learning about technicals, and I haven't really heard a lot of people talk about this since.

麦克莱伦总和指数。

The McClellan Summation Index.

那是什么？

It's a what?

你同意吗？

You agree?

不，我是说——是的。

No, I'm-- Yeah.

没人谈论这个。

Nobody talks about this.

是的，不是。

Yeah, no.

好的。

Okay.

这是一个市场广度指标，衡量的是市场参与度随时间的累积变化方向。

It's a market breadth indicator that measures the cumulative direction of market participation over time.

你看，市场上有成千上万个广度指标，它们大多可以互相替代，但他用的是这个。

So look, there's a million breadth indicators, and they mostly stand in for each other, but he's using this one.

我们来看看这第一张图。

And let's put up this first chart.

这个对我来说有点超出理解了。

This is a little bit almost over my head.

乔什，你是个数学家。

Josh, you're a mathematician.

请给我们解释一下这个。

Please walk us through this.

大体上的思路是，他在看累加指数，然后做了一个滚动120个月，也就是10年的回归分析，对比的是标普指数未来一个月的收益。

The general idea here is he's looking at the summation index, and he's doing a rolling 120-month, that's 10-year, regression versus the forward returns on the S&P over the next month.

如果你跟上了我的意思，他基本上是在说，这个指标的实际作用方式和你以为的相反。

So if you followed me on that, he's basically saying it works in the opposite way that you think.

它并不是市场真正关键的因素。

It's not actually the thing that matters to the market.

他说，市场广度实际上能很好地预测波动率，这听起来更合理。

So he says breadth is actually good at predicting volatility, which makes more sense.

下面是第二张图，这个我也只能勉强解释一下。

And so here's the second chart, which I will also barely be able to explain.

这是麦卡伦累加指数和市场波动率之间的回归分析，他说这个关系在统计上显著且为负，也就是说，广度低对应高波动，广度广对应低波动。

This is a regression between that McClellan summation index and market volatility, and he says this remains statistically significant and negative, meaning low breadth is associated with high volatility, and high breadth is associated with low volatility.

好了，图先拿掉。

So chart off.

关键是，我很欣赏亚当做了这个研究，如果你想用市场内部指标，比如麦卡伦累加指数之类的——

The point is, and I love that Adam did this work, if you want to use internals in the form of the McClellan summation, whatever-

Indra Gluer。

Indra Gluer

……

...

或者说，如果你想用这个指标来做点别的，与其用它预测未来的回报，不如这样说：如果有很多股票没有参与上涨，或者正在拖累市场，那么下个月的波动性可能会更高。

Or any other thing that you want to say, a better use of it, rather than predicting forward returns, would be to say, "Oh, if we have this many stocks not participating in an uptrend or dragging the market down, volatility is probably going to be higher over the next month."

这里面确实有些门道。

There's something there.

但我不确定该怎么利用这个信息。

I don't know what you do with that.

你肯定不是用它去卖掉摩根大通、伯克希尔·哈撒韦和思科。

What you don't do is go out and sell JP Morgan, Berkshire Hathaway, and Cisco.

那可不是正确的用法。

That's not what you do with that information.

好了，到此为止。

And scene.

好的。

All right.

所以，是的，简单总结一下的话，用大白话说，良好的市场宽度对选股的人是有利的。

So yes, to tie a bow, I would say, in plain English, that good breadth has been good for stock pickers.

但对于买指数的人来说就不太好了，而且大多数人都是希望指数上涨的。

It has not been great for index owners, and most people want the index to go up.

这个说法很棒。

That's a great way to phrase it.

如果你没有重仓那七巨头，市场宽度不好的时候确实很难受，因为你想着要跑赢大盘。

Bad breadth in the market really sucks if you are underweight the Mag Seven because you're trying to outperform it.

这种情况下确实对你不利，但这并不意味着市场会出现大范围的动荡。

Does not work in your favor, but it does not prophecy some sort of market-wide disruption.

抱歉。

I'm sorry.

我知道你希望是这样。

I know you wish it does.

确实不会。

It really doesn't.

我们已经用15种不同的方式说过这个点了，所以我们可以继续了。

And we've made this point in 15 different ways, so we can move on.

好的。

All right.

对，这个问题我们暂时先放一放。

Yeah, we'll put a pin in that one for now.

好的。

All right.

AI债券义警。

AI bond vigilantes.

你从史蒂夫·艾斯曼关于AI交易那里学到了什么？或者他提出的观点中，你最大的收获是什么？

What was the thing that you learned from Steve Eisman about the AI trade, or what was your biggest takeaway from the points that he made?

对我而言，我觉得这要么会全部奏效，要么就全都不奏效。

To me, I think it's either all going to work or none of it's going to work

你最好希望这能撑住，因为这可是整个经济。

You better hope this holds up because it's the whole economy.

这就是我得到的结论。

That's what I got.

比如，别管那些细节了。

Like, forget about the nuance.

要么全都行得通，要么全都行不通，而且没人知道是哪种。

It's all going to work or none of it's going to work and nobody knows.

我喜欢这个观点，而且这并不需要CoreWeave的股价上涨。

I like that take, and that does not require CoreWeave stock to go up.

那并不是关键。

That's not the thing that's important.

关键的是，那些实验室必须上市并筹集资金，而且超大规模云服务商的云业务营收增长数据得继续亮眼，就这些。

The thing that's important is the labs have to go public and raise money, and the hyperscalers have to continue to put up big revenue growth numbers in their cloud division, and that's it.

就这些。

That's it.

如果这些事情发生了，我们应该没问题。

And if those things happen, we should be fine.

细节暂时不重要，以后再说，现在不是时候。

The nuance is not important until some future date, and that date is not right now.

我看到的那些数字，关于Anthropic欠钱的事，就像电影里的邦妮一样。

Those numbers that I read about Anthropic owing money over town like Bunny Lebowski.

如果好的话，那就没问题。

If it's good, it's good.

如果不好，我们都完蛋了。

And if it's not, we're all going down.

杰克·特里霍恩对待女人就像对待物品一样，哥们。

Jackie Treehorn treats objects like women, man.

好吧。

All right.

你得到了什么结论？

What was your takeaway?

和我的想法不一样吗？

Was it different than mine?

不，就是这样。

No, that's it.

我喜欢他那种直截了当的方式，因为他是纽约人，所以与其搞一套复杂的叙述——

I like how he cuts through the bullshit because he's a New Yorker, and rather than have some intricate narrative of-

乱七八糟的胡扯。

Cockamamy nonsense.

他直接说：“我回答不了这个问题。”

He just goes, "I can't answer that."

这其实也是——

Which is-

他就好像——

He's just like-

……答案的一部分。

... part of the answer.

他就说：‘听着，如果需求保持，人们在AI上花钱，我们就会没事。’

He's just like, "Look, if the demand holds up and people are spending money on AI, we're going to be okay."

就是这样。

That's it.

如果我们好，那就好。

If we're good, we're good.

如果我们好，那就好。

If we're good, we're good.

事情就是这样。

It is what it is.

好吧。

All right.

Ed Yardeni说了一些我觉得积极的话，虽然乍一看可能会被理解为负面的。

Ed Yardeni said something that I thought was positive, even though at first blush, it could be taken negatively.

在谈论上周Nebius和CoreWeave发生的事情、债务、股价和担忧时，他把这框定为这是健康的，因为债券警察——我们通常将其与国债或市政债券等主权债务联系在一起——现在在AI发行者的信贷中发挥作用，并且他们在没有人愿意的地方强制执行市场纪律，以分化的形式。

In talking about what happened with Nebius and CoreWeave, the debt, the stock prices, the concerns of last week, he's framing this as like this is healthy because the bond vigilantes, whom we normally associate with sovereign debt like treasury bonds or municipalities, are at work in the credits of the AI issuers, and they are enforcing market discipline where no one else will in the form of dividing.

哪些债券是我们想持有的？

Which credits do we want to own?

我们想持有Meta的债券吗？

Do we want to own Meta bonds?

是的，我们大概想。

Yeah, we probably do.

我们想持有CoreWeave吗？

Do we want to own CoreWeave?

不像以前那么想了。

Not as much as we used to.

这就是AI债券市场的监管者——

That's the AI bond market vigilantes-

……

...

把定价权掌握在自己手里，区分好风险和坏风险。

taking the pricing into their own hands and delineating between good and bad risk.

而且我觉得这也是好事。

And I think it's healthy, too.

那我先引用埃德的话，然后听听你的看法。

So let me just quote Ed and then I'll get your reaction.

上周AI相关股票的暴跌让怀疑者们认为，AI泡沫正在破裂，正如他们长期以来预测的那样。

Last week's rout in AI-related stocks convinced the naysayers that the AI bubble is bursting, just as they've long predicted.

我们更乐观的看法是，这些“监管者”现在正在很好地监管和分配资金给AI领域。

Our happier spin is that the vigilantes are now doing a good job of regulating and allocating capital to AI.

信用利差正在扩大，反映出一些风险较大的借款人（如CoreWeave和Oracle）发行债券的风险。

Credit quality spreads are widening to reflect the riskiness of the bonds issued by some of the dodgier borrowers, like CoreWeave and Oracle.

这些借款人信贷成本的迅速上升，应该会让AI泡沫缩小，而不至于破裂。

The rapidly rising cost of credit for such borrowers should deflate the AI bubble without bursting it.

如果一些AI相关的信贷真的爆雷，AI黑手党的教父们，以及他们在政府中的保护者，会收拾残局。

If some AI-related credits do blow up, the godfathers of the AI mafia, along with their protectors in the government, will clean up the mess.

最后，与此同时，AI公司债市场的暴跌引发了向优质资产和安全的逃离，这阻止了美国国债市场的进一步下跌。

Lastly, meanwhile, the rout in the AI corporate bond market has triggered a flight to quality and safety that has stopped the rout in the US Treasury bond market.

我也喜欢那个。

I like that, too.

这印证了我们的观点，也印证了迈克尔·巴特尼克的观点，那就是近期美债收益率的上升，主要反映的是经济增长好于预期。

This confirms our thesis, and Michael Batnick's thesis, that the recent rise in US bond yields mostly reflects better than expected economic growth.

就这样。

That's it.

太棒了。

I love it.

三号通道需要清理一下。

Clean up in aisle three.

乔恩，请翻到图三。

Jon, figure three, please.

看看这张图。

Look at this chart.

下一张，谢谢。

Next one, please.

所以，投机级信用利差在AI相关篮子以及同等评级的非AI信用中有所体现。

So speculative-grade credit spreads in the AI-related basket and non-AI of similarly rated credit.

看看这个，浅蓝色线在飙升。

Look at this, the light blue line blowing out.

我觉得这真是个好消息。

I think this is such welcome news.

市场正在清醒过来。

The market is sobering up.

市场正在合理定价风险。

The market is pricing risk appropriately.

谁不担心呢？

Who is not concerned?

市场在告诉那些给发行方提供建议的投资银行：“冷静点。”

The market is telling the investment banks that advise the issuers, "Chill out."

不是停下来。

Not stop.

放松点。

Relax.

我喜欢这样。

I love it.

我们现在不必急着去搞AGI。

We don't have to race for AGI right now.

利率在百分之五点几。

Rates are at five and change percent.

放松点。

Relax.

这就是我们希望看到的纪律性。

And that's the discipline that we want to see.

我们可以跳过这段关于Mahaney的内容。

We could skip this Mahaney stuff.

我们改天再聊这个。

We'll do it another time.

好的。

All right.

你知道吗？

You know what?

你之前说过，有时候市场会自己清理垃圾。

You said this a while ago, about sometimes the market takes out its own junk.

你是怎么说的来着？

How did you phrase it?

就像在牛市里？

Like in a bull market?

健康的牛市会自己清理垃圾。

A healthy bull market takes out its own trash.

明白。

Okay.

好，这就是例子。看看那个高风险的道琼斯指数。

Well, exhibit A. Look at the Degen Dow.

它已经跌了44%，而且很多个股也——

It's in a 44% drawdown, and a lot of the-

因为那些都是垃圾股。

Because it's trash

……很多个股也是，而且我们很久没更新这个列表了，可能该更新一下了，但确实很糟糕。

... and a lot of the individual names, and we haven't updated this in a while, so it could probably use a facelift, but it's bad.

你会把哪些从这列表里删掉？

What would you take off this list?

我想到几个。

I got a few.

我觉得Reddit不该在里面。

I don't think Reddit belongs here.

Palantir也不该在里面。

Palantir doesn't belong here.

这两个我都同意。

Agree on both.

Robinhood 不应该在这份名单上。

Robinhood does not belong here.

这份名单已经很过时了。

This is a very stale list.

不对，Robinhood 应该在那里，不是因为 Robinhood 本身是垃圾，而是因为 Robinhood 的生死取决于人们是否愿意互相买卖垃圾。

No, Robinhood belongs there, not because Robinhood is junk, but because Robinhood lives and dies based on the willingness of people to buy and sell junk to each other.

好吧，行。

Okay, fine.

Roblox 也不该在里面。

Roblox does not belong.

这点我不同意。

I can't get with you on that.

我会把 Palantir 拿掉——

I would pull Palantir-

是的，那肯定的。

Yeah, for sure

...拿掉。

... off.

对，肯定的。

No, definitely.

我觉得它之所以在上面，是因为交易它的人都是些赌徒，但我认为它已经升级了。

I think it was on there because it is degenerates who are trading it, but I think it's graduated.

不，它已经升级了。

No, it's graduated.

而且顺便说，Palantir上周创了历史新高，所以现在看起来会更糟糕。

And by the way, Palantir was at an all-time high last week, so it would look even worse.

如果这个列表更新了，它跌得更惨。

If this was updated, it's down way worse.

所以——

So-

我们加点垃圾进去，把一些更好的东西拿掉。

Let's add some trash to it and pull some of the better things out of it.

好的。

Okay.

我们就这么做。

We'll do that.

我们得重新调整一下指数。

We have to rebalance our index.

把图表再调出来。

Put the chart back up.

你说得很有道理。

Your point is well taken.

这才是你想要的。

This is what you want.

你不希望市场被这些乱七八糟的东西主导，比如——

You don't want to see a market led by this degenerate stuff like-

对。

No

……你为什么想要那样呢？

... why would you want that?

不。

No.

没人想再经历2021年。

Nobody wants 2021 again.

对。

No.

好的。

Okay.

这是我们要做的最后一件事。

This is the last thing we're going to do.

伯克希尔买入了一家叫Bending Spoons的公司的股票。

Berkshire buying the stock of a company called Bending Spoons.

所以伯克希尔在IPO之前就参与了这家公司。

So Berkshire was part of this thing pre-IPO.

他们参与了这次的发行，现在又在二级市场买入。

They were in on the offering itself, and now they're buying in the secondary market.

不管怎么说，这些创建这家公司的米兰年轻人——我开玩笑的。

For whatever reason, these Milanese teenagers who founded this company-- I'm just kidding.

他们是大学同学，不过现在年纪大了。

They were college buddies, but they're older now.

这些来自意大利的先生们创建了这家公司，引起了伯克希尔某位人士的关注，而且他们喜欢这只股票。

These gentlemen from Italy who founded this company got the attention of somebody at Berkshire, and they liked the stock.

我觉得这很有意思，因为这是一家软件公司——这很寻常——不完全是软件，就算它是一家互联网公司吧。

And I thought it was fascinating because software company, and this is normal-- Not quite software, let's say internet company.

这和我们见过的伯克希尔以往的投资行为差得太远了，除了买苹果和IBM以外，几乎没有类似的情况。

This is thousands and thousands of miles away from anything we've seen Berkshire do pretty much ever outside of buying Apple and IBM.

像这些——

Like these-

这真是个奇怪的故事。

This was a strange story.

这事越来越离奇了，所以我想让大家注意一下，也想听听你的看法，迈克。

It's getting stranger, so I wanted to put it on everyone's radar and get your take on it, Mike.

把图表给我看看。

Give me the chart.

这是IPO以来的每日收盘价，我们标出了伯克希尔的买入点。

This is the daily closing price since the IPO, and we're indicating where the Berkshire purchases are.

你看，他们从一开始，首次公开募股时就已经参与了。

As you can see, they were involved from the get-go, from the initial public offering.

然后他们最近在一份文件中宣布增持了股份。

And then they just announced that they added to it in a filing.

这家公司是做什么的？

What does this thing do?

Bending Spoons收购濒临倒闭的互联网公司，几乎裁掉所有员工，然后利用人工智能更盈利地运营它们。

Bending Spoons buys dead internet companies, fires almost everyone, and then utilizes AI to run them more profitably.

你知道吗，巴菲特在六十年代就是靠捡烟蒂股起家的。

You know cigar butt investing was how Buffett started in the '60s?

这些就像是——

These are like-

这就像是——

This is like-

……那些公司，最后的——

... companies with the last-

……60年后。

... 60 years later.

所以，告诉观众他们持有哪些公司。

So tell the audience what companies they own.

这是——

This was-

好的。

All right.

他们持有AOL。

So they own AOL.

真的就是那个该死的美国在线。

Like literally fucking America Online.

这家公司拥有它。

This company owns it.

我完全不知道这玩意儿还存在。

I had no idea that was still a thing.

他们还拥有Vimeo、Eventbrite、Evernote、WeTransfer……

They own Vimeo, Eventbrite, Evernote, WeTransfer-

那是什么？

What's that?

……Meetup、Airtable。

... Meetup, Airtable.

Meetup？

Meetup?

WeTransfer，邓肯和我以前用它来传视频文件……

WeTransfer, Duncan and I used to use WeTransfer to send video files-

哦，我记得那个。

Oh, I remember that

……从SD卡里。

... from an SD card.

Miro。

Miro.

所以，好的。

So, all right.

让我快速解释一下。

Let me explain it very quickly.

他们收购正在衰退的消费类应用。

They buy declining consumer apps.

这些公司增长不够，无法上市或独立发行股票，但风投也不想持有它们。

These are companies that don't have enough growth to go public or be their own stock, but venture capitalists don't want to own them either.

所以它们能获得不错的估值。

So they're getting a good valuation.

他们会进行重组。

They restructure it.

他们会引入AI。

They bring in AI.

他们会产生现金流。

They generate cash flow.

现金流归母公司所有，也就是Bending Spoons。

The cash flow accrues to the parent company, which is Bending Spoons.

从2023年初开始，他们已经花了60亿美元收购了15个之前提到的公司。

Since early 2023, they've spent $6 billion on 15 of those acquisitions that we just mentioned.

每笔交易在偿还债务前必须达到25%的年回报率，偿还债务后必须达到65%。

Every deal has to clear a 25% annual return before debt and 65% after debt.

这就是他们的模式。

That's their model.

比如，他们以13亿美元收购了Airtable，这比其最高价值低了90%，然后他们解散团队，专为用户运营。

For example, they bought Airtable for $1.3 billion, which was 90% below its peak value, and then they get rid of the team, and they run it for the user.

用户并不关心股价。

The user base is not looking at the stock price.

不管怎样，用户还是能继续从这些平台中获得价值。

The user base, for whatever reason, continues to get value out of these platforms.

所以他们只管为用户群服务，然后他们变成了新的股权所有者。

And so they just run it for the benefit of the user base, and they become the new equity owners.

他们大肆裁员。

They do mass layoffs.

他们对现有用户提高了价格。

They increase prices for existing users.

确实会在社交媒体上引发很多愤怒。

They do generate a lot of anger on social media.

创始人是卢卡·法拉利，伯克希尔一直是他的长期灵感来源。

The founder's name is Luca Ferrari, and Berkshire was a longstanding inspiration of his.

他和商学院或者大学同学一起创办了这家公司。

Started the business with these guys he went to business school with or college with.

去年，他们的营收达到了13亿美元。

Last year, they did $1.3 billion in revenue.

这比前一年增长了100%。

That was 100% growth from the prior year.

营业收入是6.13亿美元，也比前一年增长了100%。

Operating income was $613 million, which was up 100% from the prior year.

去年调整后的每股收益，上涨了57%。

And adjusted earnings per share last year, up 57%.

这业务真是够怪的，对吧？

This is a wacky business, right?

是挺怪的，要说奇怪也奇怪在它给投资者传递的信号上。

It's a wacky business, and it's strange if for nothing else than the signaling that it does to investors.

这是第一批非巴菲特——他其实已经放手很久了，但是——

This is one of the first non-Buffett-- He's been sort of hands off the steering wheel for a while, but-

好吧，IPO的时候他还在，不过你说得对。

Well, the IPO, he was still there, but yes, you're right.

不过这笔钱也不算多，所以就算这是个巨大的成功，也影响不了任何人。

But it's not a lot of money either, so even if this is a grand slam ruski, it doesn't move anybody's needle.

就是觉得奇怪。

It was just strange.

我手边没有具体他买了多少的数据，不过无所谓，大概是十亿美元吧。

So I don't have right in front of me how much he bought, but whatever, it's like a billion dollars.

这对伯克希尔·哈撒韦来说不会改变什么。

It's not going to change anything for Berkshire Hathaway.

这家公司有一个非常明确的看空论调。

There is a very well-established bear case on this company.

你可以想象，今年早些时候它很快就卷入了SaaS泡沫破裂的浪潮中。

As you might imagine, it was quickly caught up in the SaaSpocalypse early this year.

我就给你讲讲看空的理由，然后我们就可以结束这个话题了。

I'll just give you the bear case, and then we can wrap this topic.

但首先从估值说起。

But starts with valuation.

跟踪这家公司的分析师给出的共识评级是“持有”，这在华尔街意味着“卖出”。

So the analysts that follow it, the consensus rating is hold, which on Wall Street means sell.

有一位分析师把目标价下调到了36美元，这比现在的股价低多了。

One analyst cut their target to 36, which is way below the current price.

他说第二季度的有机增长只有3%。

Said organic growth was only 3% in Q2.

他们表面的增长靠的是一连串的收购。

The headline growth depends on a steady stream of acquisitions.

是的，我们知道。

Yes, we know.

这种增长是靠债务来支撑的。

That growth is funded with debt.

这家公司有近50亿美元的长期债务，而且第二季度的利息支出是1.09亿美元，比去年同期翻了三倍。

The company carries almost $5 billion of long-term debt, and their interest expense in Q2 was $109 million, which is tripled year over year.

这大约占了调整后营业收入的29%。

That is about 29% of adjusted operating income.

所以杠杆比率是2.4倍。

So it's a 2.4 times leverage ratio.

看空的人基本上在担心，到某个时候，要么找不到可收购的公司，要么收购太多，债务利息支出会让人觉得这样收购互联网公司不划算。

And the bears are basically looking at it like at a certain point, you're going to run out of deals, or you're going to do so many deals that the interest expense on the debt is going to make this an unattractive way to own internet companies.

对，接下来是不是要收购Tumblr了？

Yeah, what's next, Tumblr?

其实从某些角度看挺奇怪的，但从另一些角度看又挺经典的，对吧？

Look, in some ways it's weird, but in some ways it's sort of classic, right?

其他公司对这些企业都没兴趣。

Nobody else wants these companies.

他们能跟谁竞争呢？

Who are they bidding against?

顺便说一句，说到现代互联网公司，你有没有注意到Meta很快就失去了Muse带来的增长势头？

By the way, speaking of modern internet companies, did you notice that Meta lost the Muse bump very fast?

你知道原因吗？

Do you know why?

客户流失率不太妙。

The churn rate is not good

听说X的机器人或者Grok机器人特别厉害。

I'm told that the X bot or Grok bot is amazing.

Meta并没有完全丢掉那波涨幅，但已经失去了势头。

Meta didn't lose the whole bump, but it lost the momentum.

哦，不，它确实跌回去了。

Oh, no, it did.

对，确实是这样。

Yes, it did.

整个都跌回去了？

The whole thing?

不太好。

Not great.

这些智能聊天机器人的问题是，很多公司根本不承认它们。

The thing with these agentic chatbots is that a lot of companies are just denying them.

全都下降了。

Everything.

不让他们抓取网站，也不让他们进行交易。

Won't let them crawl their sites, won't let them transact.

所以亚马逊特别明确地说了：“不行。”

So Amazon very notably said, "Nope."

是的。

Yep.

“我们的购物体验现在这样已经挺好的了。

"Our shopping experience works fine as is.

我们不需要帮手。”

We don't need a helper."

航空公司也不允许。

The airlines aren't allowing it.

银行和券商都说了：“绝对不行。”

The banks and brokerage firms all said, "No fucking way."

所以现在不是说它们没用了，而是它们现在得玩政治，得做交易。

And so it's not that they're useless now, it's that now they have to play politics and they have to make deals.

它们比较新。

They're newer.

对，确实。

Yeah, for sure.

它们得做交易。

They have to make deals.

现在它们得搞营收。

Now they have to do revenue.

值得注意的是，不知道你注意到没有，沃尔玛现在跟亚马逊走的是相反的方向。

Notably, I don't know if you saw this, Walmart is going in the other direction from Amazon.

怎么说？

How so?

沃尔玛是这样做的。

Walmart went like this.

哦，聪明。

Oh, smart.

聪明吧？

Smart, right?

亚马逊左转，它右转。

Zigging while Amazon's zagged.

好的。

Okay.

你想把电商业务给他们，他们就用即时配送或Muse接住。

And they'll take all the e-commerce you want to send their way with Instant or Muse.

他们根本不在乎。

They don't give a shit.

放马过来。

Bring it.

我们接得住。

We'll do it.

好吧——

Well-

我觉得那挺有意思的。

I thought that was interesting

……

...

我喜欢这种短小的播客节目。

I appreciate the short episode.

我要去看世界冠军了。

I am off to see the world champions.

顺便说一下，凯尔特人队输掉了第一场比赛，所以也有这个因素。

And by the way, the Celtics blew their first game, so there's that, too.

我真为你高兴。

I'm so happy for you.

我也为自己高兴。

I'm happy for me.

我为全世界的尼克斯球迷感到高兴。

I'm happy for Knicks fans worldwide.

好好享受升旗仪式、戒指颁发仪式，还有我们即将在费城给他们的痛击，我们明天再聊。

Enjoy the raising of the banner, enjoy the ring ceremony, and enjoy the beating that we're about to throw at Philly, and we'll talk to you tomorrow.

各位，非常感谢你们。

Guys, thank you so much.

我们很感激。

We appreciate it.

感谢你们来看直播。

Thanks for coming to the live.

记住明天是全新一期的《Animal Spirits》，本周内我们还会推出《Ask The Compound》和《The Compound and Friends》。

Remember that tomorrow is an all-new "Animal Spirits," and we'll do "Ask The Compound" and "The Compound and Friends" between now and the end of the week.

继续锁定我们。

Keep it locked.

我们爱你们。

We love you.

我们很快再聊。

We'll talk to you soon.