如何玩转金钱游戏——与迈克尔·桑托利

下午四点后我走到他跟前。

I went up to him after 04:00.

所有经纪人都忙着吸可卡因或者干别的事。

All the brokers were doing cocaine or whatever they were doing.

房间里空荡荡的，我走过去对他说，你是这里唯一一个在看《华尔街日报》的人。

The room was empty, and I walked up to him, and I said, you are the only person I see reading The Wall Street Journal.

你好像挺懂行情的。

You seem to sort of know what's going on.

我怎么才能学股票？

How do I learn about stocks?

而且我当时只是个打电话拉客户的。

And I'm a cold caller.

我连执照都没有。

I'm not even licensed.

他回答说，正是如此。

And he said exactly.

他说，非常重要，每天都要看《华尔街日报》的C版块。

He said, very important, the c section of The Wall Street Journal every single day.

那是关于金钱和投资的部分吗？

It's was that the money and investing?

金钱和投资。

Money and investing.

对。

Yeah.

金钱和投资。

Money and investing.

读C版块。

Read the C section.

别管B版块，那是政治。

Don't worry about B, it's politics.

别管A版块，那就像《纽约时报》一样。

Don't worry about A, it's it's like New York Times.

读C版。

Read the C section.

好的。

Okay.

我会照做的。

I'll do that.

还有什么？

What else?

如果你想了解市场为什么这样走，每周六读《巴伦周刊》，除了阿贝尔森那部分。

If you wanna learn how to if you wanna learn why the market's doing what it's doing, every Saturday, read Barron's except for Abelson.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

艾弗里说，阿贝尔森，你会离开这个行业的。

Avery said, Abelson, you will leave the business.

其他所有人。

Everybody else.

对。

Yeah.

他没说你，但那时候你是《巴伦周刊》最好的专栏作家。

He didn't say you, but you were the best columnist at the Barents at that time.

然后他说的第三件事，可能是我学到第二多的，他说，《商业周刊》，吉恩·马歇尔。

And then the third thing he said, which is maybe where I learned the second most from, he said, Businessweek, Gene Marshall.

对。

Yeah.

如果你想学怎么推荐股票，吉恩·马歇尔是世界上最好的个股故事讲述者。

If you wanna learn how to pitch stocks, Gene Marshall is the best stock individual stock storyteller in the world.

对。

Yeah.

他的专栏叫《华尔街内幕》。

And his column was called Inside Wall Street.

所以我就照做了。

And so I did it.

我听了这个人的话。

I listened to this guy.

对。

Yep.

我就是这样学会炒股的。

And that's how I learned the stock market.

而你的专栏是我读的第一篇，因为刚才我们聊的那些。

And yours was the first column I'd read because of everything that we just talked about.

我就觉得这个人不只是说说发生了什么。

I just felt like this guy's not just saying what's happening.

他是个作家。

He's a writer.

而我平时也读小说。

And I read novels.

我读文学作品。

I read literature.

所以这让我很有共鸣。

So it just it resonated with me.

总之，我就是这样学会炒股的。

Anyway, that's how I learned the stock market.

所以，谢谢你，谢谢你……

So thank So thank you for

那我可要沾点光了。

I'll take a tiny slice of the credit for that.

谢谢你。

Thank you.

我是说，显然，《巴伦周刊》是个很好的平台，能让你找到自己的声音。

I mean, obviously, Barron's was a great place to just like find a voice.

而且，你知道，你的读者都是懂行的人……

And also, you know you're being read by people who know a whole

多得多，我完全同意。

lot Oh, more than I agree.

所以你必须要提升自己。事实上，我离开那里的原因之一——虽然有很多原因让我觉得我想离开，但其中一个是我陷入了这个陷阱，就像在跑步机上一样。你知道，那是二十一世纪十年代初，我试图比那些以领先大盘两步为生的人快一步，而他们拥有所有资源。

And you have to therefore rise to in fact, one of the reasons I stepped off, you know, a lot of reasons I I felt like I wanted to move on from there, but one was I got myself in this trap, on this treadmill of like you know, this is like early twenty tens, and it's like, I'm trying to stay one step ahead of these guys who stay two steps ahead of the overall market for a living, and they have all the resources.

是的。

And yeah.

而且那真的很累，你会把自己绕进死胡同。

And it was just exhausting, and you kind of think yourself into circles.

说实话，很多时候，在巴伦周刊工作的一部分影响是，它让你变得条件反射式的逆向思维，或者说，就是说出那些逆流而上的挑衅性言论，不管是什么。

And to be honest, a lot of times what it did, being at Barron's was part of this, is it backed you into a kind of reflexive contrarianism, or let me just say the provocative thing that goes against the prevailing trend or whatever it is.

我其实很反感一直这样做，因为你需要有一定的忍耐力，就像艾伦·阿贝尔森那样，对着黑暗大喊，问为什么市场会下跌。

And I kind of bristled at doing that all the time, because you have to have a certain tolerance, like Alan did, Abelson, of just screaming into the darkness and saying, why does the market go down?

所以他当时是个令人畏惧的空头。

So he was, like, this feared bear back then.

你不觉得他现在的专栏和现在其他东西相比，显得挺过时的吗？

Don't you feel like his columns now versus, like, what else is out there is pretty quaint?

我觉得现在在推特上根本没人会注意到这些。

I don't even think it would get noticed on Twitter these days.

但那时候，大家就会觉得，哎呀，阿贝尔森要开始批评微软了。

But back then, it was like, uh-oh, Abelson's about to go to town on Microsoft.

现在呢，就感觉……

Now it's like

那不过是用一种华丽的方式说，看，那群人又来了，又在做那些愚蠢的跟风行为。

It would just be this florid way of saying like, oh, there the crowd goes again, doing its silly herd like things.

偶尔也会有针对某家公司或什么的批评文章。

And once in a while, there would be a targeted takedown of a company or whatever.

而且，你知道，我不确定这是不是真的，但有人跟我说过，1987年的那次崩盘，就是那个时期，那是一个星期一。

And, you know, I don't know if this is true, but I've had people come to me and point to the crash of 'eighty seven, that period of time where That was, of a Monday.

而在那之前的周末，艾伦一直看跌，但如果你还记得，市场在8月见顶，然后到崩盘前已经大幅下跌了。

And the weekend before that, Alan, who was bearish leading up to that, but if you remember, the market peaked in that August, and it was down huge into the crash.

对。

Yeah.

当时市场就已经挺乱的了。

Like, was already kind of a mess.

我觉得他当时的意思就是，你们看看这个。

And I think he was kind of saying like, look at this.

终于，世界开始按我的思路来了。

Finally, the world's coming around in my way of thinking.

现在有些好股票很便宜，诸如此类的。

There's some good stocks that are cheap now, whatever.

结果第二天，市场就跌了22%。

Next day, the market was down 22%.

唉。

Ugh.

然后感觉就是，再也不会有下次了。

And it was like, never again.

他确实有过自己的高光时刻。

It was he had his moment.

我不知道这是不是真的，但那就是——

I have no idea if that's true, but that's-

所以从那以后，他再也不敢看多了，以防万一。

So then he couldn't ever be bullish again just in case.

我觉得，从性格上来说，他本来就不适合看多。

I mean, I think temperamentally, wasn't geared to anyway.

谁也没预料到八七年的那次崩盘。

Nobody ever expects the crash of eighty seven.

对吧？

Right?

对。

Right.

就像一部巨蟒剧团的短剧一样。

Like a it's like a Monty Python sketch.

没错。

Exactly.

好的。

Alright.

然后在你教了我之后，我又教了迈克尔炒股。

And then I taught Michael the stock market after you taught me.

没错。

That's right.

对吧？

Right?

谁教的，是的。

Who taught yeah.

当然。

Sure.

是谁教你炒股的？

Who taught you the stock market?

其实没人真正教过我什么。

Nobody really taught me anything.

我觉得其实就是从各个方向汲取，然后多读聪明人的东西。

I think it's really just, like, pulling from every direction and just, like, reading smart people.

那是巴顿·比格斯的那本书吗？

Is that is that Barton Big's book up there?

对。

Yeah.

我是说，巴顿就是我说的那种很好的例子。

I mean, like, Barton's a great example of what I'm talking about.

就像个英语专业的人。

It's like an English major.

但你跟很多人聊过。

But you talk to a lot.

这就是你和迈克尔跟我做的不同之处。

This is the thing about what's different about you versus what Michael and I do.

迈克尔和我写东西的时候，我们就是博主。

Michael and I, when we write, we're bloggers.

我们写过书。

We've written books.

但就像，是的。

But like Yeah.

我们不是靠内部消息。

We're not sourced.

我们只是读别人的东西，综合一下，看看图表，看看数据。

We're just reading other people, synthesizing, looking at charts, looking at some data.

对。

Yeah.

然后形成自己的观点。

Coming up with our own opinions.

而你是在幕后跟真正管理真金白银的人交流。

You were talking to real people behind the scenes that were managing real money.

我觉得这可能就是你的一部分优势所在。

And I think that's where part of your edge probably came from.

确实是这样。

That is true.

尤其是那些更偏战术性的人，愿意稍微偏离标准打法，或者不是那种被动跟踪指数的类型。

And especially the people who are a little bit more tactical, willing to kind of stray away from the kind of standard playbook a little bit or not the closet indexer types.

但你知道吗？

But you know what?

现在，更重要的是你实际做了什么，而不是没做什么。

These days, it's more what you do than not.

我确实还和一些人保持联系，试着了解他们的想法和说法，但是

I do still keep in touch with people and try to have a read on what they're thinking and saying, but

他们其实什么都不知道。

they don't know any much They don't know anything anyway.

没人知道。

Nobody knows.

不过这反而让人安心。

That's almost comforting though.

但我觉得现在恰恰相反，每个人都知道所有事情，因为信息太多了。

But do think it's the opposite now everyone knows everything because there's so much information out

是啊，我觉得每个人对正在发生的事情都有一定程度的了解。

think, yeah, everyone knows a certain level of what's going on.

我一直说，这就是我当初用推特时觉得有价值的地方。

I've always said that that was what I found valuable about, you know, when I first took to Twitter.

我整个职业生涯都在实时看新闻通讯社，但就像，我得跟上这个，确保自己没漏掉什么。

I've been a newswire reader in real time my whole career, but it was just like, let me just keep it up with this to make sure I'm not missing anything.

对吧？

Right?

而且信息都在那里。

And it is all there.

你会看到某些事情受到的关注度逐渐升温。

You sort of see the crescendo of attention in certain things.

是啊，所以我不知道现在还有没有人会说，从整体市场来看，我有优势，我要……

And yeah, so I don't know if anybody is anymore saying, you know, in a broad sense on the overall market, I have an edge, and I'm gonna

但我觉得，回答你的问题，现在每个人都跟得很紧，大家都在拼命吸收信息。

But I think, to your question, I think everyone is now so up to speed and is everyone is like drinking from the fire hose.

对。

Yeah.

关键在于弄清楚什么值得真正关注，什么不值得，当然有时候你能做到。

The skill is like figuring out what to really pay attention to, what not to, which of course you can do it sometimes.

但不可能总是做到。但所有的……

You can't always do it But all the

这正是你仍然很有价值的原因，因为现在信息太多了，人们需要有人来整合所有内容。

that was what makes you so valuable still, is because there's almost too much now that people need somebody to synthesize all

把它浓缩一下。

Focus it down.

给我八百字。

Give me 800 words.

什么最重要？

What matters?

对。

Right.

把它聚焦下来。

Focus it down.

主题是不是被误解了？

Theme is either misunderstood?

你看，很多问题归根结底，你们也知道，就是今天适用哪个版本的历史？

Look, a lot of this comes down, you guys know, it's like what version of history applies today?

因为你可以找到一个类似的时期，或者看起来像这种市场行为的东西，然后你想怎么解读就怎么解读，但没有什么是一成不变的。

Because you can find an analogous period or something that looks like this type of market behavior, and you could infer what you want from it, but nothing is always We're

每次都不一样，伙计们。

the it's always different guys.

是的。

Yeah.

就像，毫不掩饰地。

Like, unapologetically.

对。

Right.

不。

No.

这次不一样，上次也不一样。

This time it is different, and last time it was different too.

而且这就像，那是我们的迈克尔，我是说……

And it's on like, that's our that's Michael, our I'm

我很好奇。

so curious.

你让我想起了这个，关于不同的解读。

You just reminded me of this, about, like, different interpretations.

是的。

Yeah.

这周我跟本聊了聊，我们为这个争论过无数次了。

So I was talking with Ben this week, and we've had this argument a billion different times.

熊市什么时候结束？

When does a bear market end?

牛市什么时候开始？

When does a bull market start?

对。

Yeah.

所以我跟Ben打的比方是，你可以看一个像Vin Baker这样的球员，只看他的数据，对吧，篮球方面的参考。

So the analogy that I gave to Ben is you could look at a player like Vin Baker just as his box, right, basketball references.

他们就会说，哦，他是个很棒的球员。

They're like, Oh, he was a great player.

就这样。

Like, whatever.

他还行。

He was okay.

回头看和亲身经历是完全不同的两回事。

It's not the same thing to look back as to live through it.

对。

Right.

所以你可以把2009年看作牛市的开始，这是本的观点，但我说，老兄，那怎么可能是牛市。

So you can look back to 2009 as the start of the bull market, which is what Ben was arguing for, and I said, Dude, no way was that a bull market.

绝不可能。

No way.

我知道从图表上看，那算是熊市的结束。

I know it was the end of the bear market, I suppose, like on the chart.

是的。

Yeah.

但实际上熊市直到2012年、2013年才真正结束。

But the bear market didn't actually end until 2012, 2013.

就像你亲身经历过一样。

Like, you were there.

当然。

Sure.

2011年双重衰退、欧元危机的时候，谁在谈论牛市？

Who was talking about a bull market in 2011 during the double dip, the euro stuff?

人们是什么时候开始用这个词的？

When did people even start to say the word?

我同意你的看法。

I'm on yours.

我同意你的看法。

I'm on yours.

牛市。

Bull market.

我同意你的看法。

I'm on yours.

本描述的是反弹。

Ben's describing Ben's describing a rally.

反弹不是牛市。

A rally is not a bull market.

我觉得重要的是当时人们是怎么说的，没人傻到那个地步。

I think what matters is what people were saying in real time, and nobody was dumb enough

去说

to would

对，没人那么说。

say say nobody was saying that.

但我确实觉得，熊市的结束和牛市的开始，其实都是事后才能定义的。

But I do think that, the end of a bear market and the beginning of a bull market are really only defined in retrospect.

所以你就处在这个模糊地带，不知道接下来会怎么走，而且看起来会非常相似。

So you're in this nether zone of like, we don't know how it's gonna break from here, and it's gonna look very similar.

熊市反弹会——我记得巴里·里索尔茨写过一篇命中率最高的文章。

A bear market rally is gonna I I can remember one of the, most highest hit rate, pieces that Barry Ritholtz ever wrote.

肯定是因为那篇文章叫《熊市反弹》。

It must be because it was called bear market rally.

好的。

Okay.

而且我过去总是莫名其妙地看到那篇文章。

And it was like, I used to just stumble on it all the time for some reason.

在《大图景》博客上。

On the big picture block.

在

On the

《大图景》博客上。

big picture block.

对。

Yeah.

那大概是2009年底的时候。

And it was probably in late two thousand and nine.

那时候这文章就像引战帖一样。

And it's like rage bait at that period of time.

没错。

Right.

但这就是迈克尔要表达的观点。

But that's the point that Michael's making.

我知道。

I know.

说熊市反弹。

Saying Bear Market Rally.

对。

Yeah.

或者我敢说，09年新的长期牛市。

Or dare I say new secular bull market in o nine.

太疯狂了。

Insane.

人们会觉得你该被逮捕。

People would think that you should be arrested.

对。

Yeah.

这让我想到了我那位神秘经纪人，因为他在09年末差不多就是这么做的。

Well, that brings me to my mystery broker guy because that's kinda what he did in late o nine.

对。

Yeah.

他说，金融危机已经结束了。

He says, the financial crisis is over.

我们不

We don't

要不要干脆说清楚，那个人不是我？

make Should we clear up once and for all that it's not me?

嗯，在那之前我们一直有点含糊其辞，直到去年12月才真正确认了身份。

Well, we had a little bit of vagueness about that up until last December when actually was identified.

没错。

Right.

但我从来不会说，我总说那是个你从没听说过的人。

But I wouldn't ever I would always say it's nobody you've ever heard of.

这就是为什么Tell这么特别。

Which is what makes Tell so

给那些人讲这个故事。

the story for people that

你知道，我以前在巴伦周刊工作，有个财务顾问，也是个经纪人，偶尔会写点东西，就是给我发他的客户信，他确实这么做过。

don't I know was at Barron's, and there was a guy who was a financial advisor, a broker, who would occasionally write, you know, he would just like send me his kind of client letter, and he had done so.

他在零七年写过一封，当时市场接近顶部，他说这要崩了。

He had written one in 'seven that was really close to the top of the market, and he was like, this is gonna fall apart.

不是说每次波动他都抓得准。

Not saying he caught every beat.

他给我回信不是在零九年三月，但那年晚些时候他确实写了。

This was not March of 'nine that he wrote me back, but he did later that year.

我记得可能是那年八月或九月。

Think it might have been August, September that year.

差不多吧。

Close enough.

然后他说，结束了。

And he was like, it's done.

一切都结束了。

It's over.

金融危机已经结束了。

Financial crisis is over.

你知道，你得把它当作新一轮牛市来对待。

You know, you have to be playing it like it's a new bull market.

我写了这件事，但没有提他的名字，因为他不想被曝光。

And I wrote about it without naming him because he did not want to be named.

他不想被点名——但你说的是那个神秘经纪人？

He didn't want credit- But you said mystery broker?

后来才说的。

Eventually.

第一次没提。

Not in the first time.

第一次的时候我就说，有这么个人给我写信。

The first time I was like, so there's this guy who writes me.

真的，这件事就是这么开始的。

And literally, that's how this thing started.

对我来说，这让我学到了大众心理，为什么大家就盯着这个人不放。

And for me, it was a lesson of the people's psychology of why they just fixated on this guy.

大家总是催我更新。

It would ask for updates all the time.

在推特上，他观点一变我就更新。

On Twitter, would update when he had a change of view.

我从不打电话问他想法，因为我觉得那样有点假。

I would never call him and ask him what he thought because I felt like that was a little artificial.

我想确保他有了新观点再重点报道，结果这成了个奇怪的系列。

I want to make sure he's kind of got a new take before I highlight And it became this weird franchise.

有点失控了。

It kind of got away from me.

我其实不太想让它变成一件大事。

I didn't really want it to become a major thing.

这些年来，他有点想公开身份的意思。

Over the years, he kind of flirted with the idea of being identified.

唉，那个神秘经纪人ETF。

Ugh, the mystery broker ETF.

我，而且这是……

I And it's the

我总是跟大家说，你们发现真相后会失望的。

would always tell you, I would always say to everybody, You'll be disappointed when you find

结果。

out.

因为就是个无名小卒。

Because it's nobody from nowhere.

你根本没听说过的人。

It's nobody you heard of.

对，对，

Yeah, yeah,

是的。

yeah.

然后他们就会说，哦，我觉得是泰珀。

And then they would say like, Oh, I think it's Tepper.

就像泰珀上电视的时候，他

It's like Tepper goes on TV when he

有话要说。

has something say.

没错。

Right.

通过一个神秘经纪人说话。

Talks through a mystery broker.

为什么会这样？

Why is that?

或者说是艺术套现。

Or it's art cashing.

你这话是什么意思？

What do you mean by that?

这反映了人们的心理。

It speaks to the psychology of people.

人们觉得有个神秘人物知道答案。

People think there's a secret person who knows the answers.

我正想说，我在某处读到31%的美国成年人相信魔法。

I was gonna say, read somewhere 31% of US adults believe in magic.

对。

Yeah.

所以，他们相信有个人能根据他看到的任何信号，预测股市的未来走势。

So that's like, they believe there's a man who can divine the future course of the stock market based on whatever signals he's looking at.

正是如此。

Exactly.

迈克尔，你这里有一段来自亚当·斯密的《金钱游戏》的内容，那是我有史以来最喜欢的投资类书籍。

Michael, you you have a bit in here from Adam Smith's The Money Game, which is my favorite investing book of all time.

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

绝对是，远超其他。

Like, by far.

而且我很确定是他说的，但也可能是别人。

And I'm pretty sure it was him, but it could have been somebody else.

也许是彼得·伯恩斯坦。

Maybe it was Peter Bernstein.

我记不清了。

I can't remember.

那句话好像是，没人能预见未来。

Who said like, Nobody can see the future.

我们在预测接下来会发生什么方面都太差了。

We're all so bad at predicting what happens next.

那为什么？

Then why?

公众肯定早就看穿了吧。

Surely the public must be onto it.

过一阵子，你就会想，好吧，我明白了。

After a while, you're like, All right, I get it.

不。

No.

那句话大概是说，只要有需求，预测就会源源不断地被提供出来。

The quote was like, The demand being there, the predictions must be supplied.

没错，

That's

对。

right.

而且这种需求来自公众。

And it's demand from the public.

人们会说，不，我知道你其实看不到未来，就像，我的一个家人问我乔什讲了什么。

People like No, I know you can't really see the future, like So a family member of mine asked what Josh talked about.

乔什还看好CrowdStrike吗？

Is Josh still bullish on CrowdStrike?

好的。

Okay.

然后我就说，听着，是的。

And I was like, Listen, Yes.

乔什确实

Josh does

就像莫蒂叔叔那样，我仍然看好。

all Uncle Morty, I'm still bullish.

是的。

Yes.

我说，但他，你知道，他会，这就是乔什会说的话。

I said, but he, you know, he would he this is what Josh would say.

你对这只股票的了解可能和我差不多。

You probably know as much about the stock as I do.

长期来看，我看好网络安全这个领域。

I'm bullish long term on cyber.

我喜欢这家公司的CEO。

I like the CEO.

我喜欢他们正在做的事情，但我知道什么呢？

I like what they're doing, but what do I know?

然后他说，我知道，但他还看好这只股票吗？

And he said, I know, but like, does he still like the stock?

是的。

Yeah.

就像，你没法说服别人你不知道未来会发生什么。

Like, you can't convince people that you don't know the future.

完全正确。

That's exactly right.

而且人们总是来找我。

And people come to me all the time.

就像，哇。

It's like, wow.

我真的很想让你，你知道，就坐在桌子对面，然后你能告诉我，你知道，什么才是真正的好。

I'd really love to get you, you know, just across the table, and you could tell me what, you know, what's really good.

真正会怎么样？

What's really gonna about?

我可以告诉你我在这方面注意到的一件事，我想知道你是否也注意到了。

Can tell you a thing that I've noticed in that regard, and I want I wonder if you've noticed it too.

我上电视已经十四、十五年了。

I have spent I've been on TV fourteen, fifteen years.

我一直在抱怨，股票分析师被要求的标准和周日NFL评论员不一样，他们围坐在桌子旁，特里，你怎么看？

I've spent the entire time complaining that stock people are being held to a different standard than NFL commentators on Sunday, where they go around the table, Terry, what do you think?

你怎么看？

What do you think?

我喜欢钢人队。

I like the Steeler.

而且，没人会像那样说，你这个混蛋。

And, like, nobody nobody's like, you son of a bitch.

你说的是海豚队。

You said the Dolphins.

对吧？

Right?

就像他们只是做了个预测。

It's just like they made a prediction.

但不知怎么的，他们比抛硬币猜胜负还差劲。

And somehow they're worse than a coin flip against the spread.

好吧。

Fine.

但他们是对的。

But they're right.

他们错了。

They're wrong.

他们有偏见。

They have biases.

没错。

Exactly.

他们喜欢那个球员。

They like the player.

他们喜欢那个教练。

They like the coach.

他们以前为那支球队效力过。

They used to play for the team.

那不重要。

It doesn't matter.

对。

That's right.

那是一个标准。

That's one standard.

我上CNBC。

I go on CNBC.

对。

Yeah.

我连续三只股票都看对了。

I'm right on three stocks in a row.

第四只就不行了。

The fourth one's not good.

这个混蛋，乔什·布朗。

This scumbag, Josh Brown.

好吧。

Okay.

所以我总是喜欢说，对。

So I always like Yeah.

随便吧。

Whatever.

我也不怎么抱怨。

I don't complain too much.

我过得挺好的。

I'm doing I'm doing fine.

但是，我一直注意到，在现在这个全民赌博的时代，这种情况正在改变。

But, like, that was always I've noticed that that's changing in the era of everybody gambling.

对。

Mhmm.

那些人现在日子不好过。

Those guys are getting hell.

我不知道我现在想不想当豪伊·朗。

I don't know if I wanna be Howie Long right now.

我可能宁愿当吉姆·克莱默，也不当豪伊·朗。

I might rather be Jim Cramer than Howie Long.

我可不想付那些家伙16场比赛的钱。

I don't wanna pay those guys 16 games.

那些家伙确实有那种冲劲。

Those guys get get that thrust.

他们必须这样。

They must.

所有的梦幻联赛，当然。

All the fantasy Sure.

因为现在这几乎被视为金融了，现在你把赌博放进了Robinhood，是的。

Because now that's almost being looked at as financial now that you put gambling into Robinhood Yeah.

还有预测市场，对。

And prediction markets Yep.

进入券商，进入盈透证券，现在突然之间，那些家伙就像被当成克莱默一样对待。

Into the broker into interactive brokers, now all of a sudden, those guys are, like, being treated like like Kramer.

没错。

Right.

而且

And

我觉得你没有那么多，像

I don't think you have as much, like

现在

right now.

那种看起来很高端的内幕消息推荐类的节目。

Real sophisticated seeming tip sheet type, program.

对。

Yeah.

你看到了吗？

You saw that?

你注意到这个了吗？

Have you noticed this?

当然。

Definitely.

好的。

Okay.

我永远不会忘记，这件事对我来说变得更清晰是在疫情期间的迷因股票热潮中。

I'll never forget, this kind of came into a little more clarity for me when right in the pandemic meme stock craze.

当然，我们可以看看赫兹在破产时被收购，或者整个事件。

And of course, we could look at Hertz being bought up when it was in bankruptcy or the whole thing.

我记得有一句话，我相信是在《Feet》的故事里提到的，他们采访了一个在高尔夫俱乐部工作的教练，他一直在玩这些股票。

And there was a quote, I believe it was in the Feet story about this, and they went to a guy who was like a golf pro at some club, and he's been playing these stocks.

他们问他关于这件事的看法。

And they asked him about it.

就好像，你知道，你对这个其实不太了解。

It was like, you know, you don't really know anything about this.

比如，这到底是怎么回事？

Like, what's the story?

他说，不，你看。

He's like, no, look.

我的意思是，这比体育博彩好，因为如果我猜错了一场比赛，我会输掉一切。

I mean, it's better than sports gambling because if I'm wrong on a game, I lose everything.

一分不剩。

Zero.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

如果我买了赫兹的股票，它跌了30%。

If I buy Hertz, it goes down 30%.

我还有70%。

I still have 70%.

我想也是。

I'm like, I guess.

对。

Yeah.

所以你得学迈克尔那样，搞个十队串关的鸟笼玩法。

That's why you gotta do the 10 team parlay bird cage that Michael does.

这样就算你猜错几场也没关系。

Then you get to be wrong on multiple legs.

对。

Right.

好。

Okay.

是的。

Yeah.

要是你派个人坐直升机去福克斯伍德帮你下注的话。

If you send somebody up to Foxwoods to place the best for you in a helicopter.

对。

Yeah.

我知道这个。

I know about it.

我想给你放个视频。

Let's I wanna play a video for you.

好吗？

Okay?

好的。

Yeah.

好。

All right.

我们有迈克尔1989年生日派对的那段视频吗？

Do we have that clip from, Michael's birthday party, 1989?

二十五年前，当国家公布好的数据时，利率会下降，因为我们的国家更强大了。

Twenty five years ago, when the country announced good numbers, interest rates went down because we had a stronger country.

现在，当我们公布好的数据时，数据越好，对利率就越不利。

Now when we announce good number, the better they are, the worse it is for interest rates.

所以我们的GDP可能是现在的十倍。

So we could be we could have a GDP of 10 times.

你知道，他们说，哦，会是三倍或者4.1。

You know, they say, oh, it's gonna be three times or 4.1.

如果让他们别管我们，我们的GDP可以是十倍、十二倍、十五倍。

We could have a GDP of ten, twelve, 15 times if they just leave us alone.

让我们把利率降下来。

Let us let the rates go down.

我们应该支付最低的利率。

We should pay the lowest interest rates.

你知道，每一点利率就是6000亿美元。

You know, every point of interest is $600,000,000,000.

想想看。

Think of that.

每一点利率就是6000亿美元。

Every point of interest is 600,000,000,000.

两个点就意味着我们赚大钱，但我们却一直在推高它。

Two points means we make a fortune, but we keep driving it up.

这是一个非常不公平的制度，我已经说了很长时间了。

It's a very unfair system, and I've said it now for a long time.

当我们的国家表现好的时候，利率应该下降。

When our country does well, interest rates should go down.

我的意思是，每次我听到我们国家表现好，就说，哦，那太糟糕了，因为他们会提高利率。

I mean, every time I hear our country is doing well, say, oh, that's too bad because they lift up interest rates.

他们应该降低利率，因为这表明我们是一个强大的国家，而且一切都基于信用，也就是良好的信用，而我们拥有最好的信用。

They should drop interest rates because it means we have a strong country, and it's all based on credit, meaning good credit, and we have the best credit.

而且我们会很容易、很快地还清债务。

And we'd pay off the debt very easily, very quickly.

但如果别人支付半个百分点，我们也应该支付半个百分点，而不是别人。

But if somebody's paying a half a point, we should be paying a half a point, not somebody else.

所以现在，我认为瑞士的利率是最低的。

So right now, I think it's Switzerland as the lowest.

再说一次，我不想单独点名他们，但如果你把我们的业务从瑞士拿走，他们就有麻烦了。

Again and I don't wanna single them out, but if you take our business away from Switzerland, they have problems.

那为什么他们只付半个百分点，而我们付的比这多得多？

So why are they paying a half a point and we're paying much more than that?

我是说，所以这有道理吗？

I mean So Does that make

有道理吗？

sense?

没有。

No.

没有。

No.

没有。

No.

有道理。

It does.

没有。

No.

不。

No.

确实有道理。

It does make sense.

好吧。

I alright.

所以实际上，除了那些数字，他说的其他内容我都同意。

So I actually agree with everything he said other than the the numbers.

比如，他说的第一点是对的。

Like The first thing he said was right.

前提是对的，但我突然想到，特朗普的思维方式就像一个借款人。

The premise but it occurred to me it occurred to me, Trump thinks like a borrower.

当然。

Of course.

他是搞房地产和赌场的。

He's a real estate guy and a casino guy.

一个反复被切断资金、反复破产的借款人，因此没有信用或者

A borrower who was repeatedly cut off and who repeatedly went bankrupt and who therefore did not have credit or

对，没有信用。

access Yes.

但作为房地产商，他会想：如果我的生意很好，

To But as a real estate guy, he's like, If my business is going great

没错。

Exactly.

我就能付更低的利息。交易员不会这么想。

I'm gonna pay a lower interest Traders don't think that way.

交易员会想，如果事情一直这么好，他们就得收紧货币供应。

Traders think if things keep going this well, they're gonna have to tighten the money supply.

对。

Yeah.

这就是利率上升的原因。

And that's why the rates go up.

当然。

Of course.

好的。

Okay.

但我要说的是这个观点。

But I'm I'm making this point.

大家都在嘲笑他。

People were mocking him.

他其实说得有点道理。

He's he's, like, sort of right.

我不知道该怎么说。

I don't know where to go.

我的意思是，他在谈利率方面完全不对。

I mean, he's not he's not at all right in talking about interest rates.

不，但他说得对的地方在于，我们不应该……我们是美国。

No, but right in the sense that we shouldn't We're The United States.

对。

Right.

而且经济现在发展得很好。

And the economy is going great.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这确实挺对的。

And I think that's fairly true.

没错。

Yes.

不是对经济里的每一个人来说，但现在确实有很多活动。

Not for every single person in the economy, but right now there's a ton of activity.

大家都在赚钱。

People are making money.

对。

Yeah.

消费者在花钱。

Consumers are spending.

就是，挺好的。

It's like, it's good.

企业也在花钱。

Business is spending.

他说的有点道理，比如，新闻说经济好，他们却加息？

He sort of has a point like, wait, the news is good and they raise our interest rate?

能理解这种脱节，但我觉得他这么说挺有意思的。

Understand the disconnect, but I just thought that was an interesting way of phrasing it.

而且我

And I

觉得他这些年一直这么说，而且说得很清楚。

think He has said things like this for years, and it's very clear.

这完全就是他的出发点，也就是你说的那个意思。

It's exactly where it's coming from, which is what you said.

你知道吗？

You know?

但话说回来，他说的不是国家。

But also, he's not talking about the country.

而是政府。

It's the government.

政府每年要发行数万亿美元的债券。

And the government has to sell trillions of dollars worth of paper every year.

对。

Right.

而且明年，这个数字会比今年多出两万亿美元。

And next year, it's going be $2,000,000,000,000 more than it was this year.

所以很明显，这些利率是由全球市场决定的。

And so, obviously, global markets set those rates.

我们不会因为信用不好而支付溢价，对吧？

We don't pay a premium because of bad credit, right?

这是因为宏观环境的原因。

It's because of the macro conditions.

顺便说一句，这周我们一直盯着国债收益率看。

By the way, we've been so fixated this week on where treasury yields are.

推动收益率上升的并不是信用度。

It's not the creditworthiness that's driving the yields.

对，没错。

No, exactly.

这正是他所经历的。

Which is what he's experienced.

是的。

That's right.

这肯定不是直接跟信用度有关。

It's definitely not directly credit worthiness.

现在，我觉得如果从长期来看，关于利率为什么会处于现在这个水平，有很多争论。

Now, I think there's a lot of debate as to why rates are where they are if you look longer term.

我不想说得太专业，但名义GDP都快接近6%了，十年期收益率到底应该低到什么程度呢？

I don't want to get too wonky about it, but how low do we think ten year yield should be when nominal GDP is like close to 6%?

对。

Right.

而且我们还有这么多借贷，用来投资私营部门和其他地方。

And we have all this borrowing going on to invest in the private sector and everywhere else.

这并不奇怪。

It's not weird.

这差不多就在你预期的范围内。

It's like it's kind of in the range of where you'd expect it to be.

你要么认为那些电脑……所以，事情是这样的。

You either think those computers are So here are the things.

我想听听你对这些事情的看法。

I want to hear your response to them.

第一件事是政治失灵，就好像三年前一切都政治正常似的。

Thing one is political dysfunction as if like three years ago everything was like not politically dysfunctional.

对。

Right.

好吧，行。

Okay, fine.

那就不提这个了。

Throw that out.

也许那是个问题，但这是个长期存在的问题。

Maybe that's an issue, but it's like a forever issue.

是全球收益率的问题。

It's global yields.

好。

Okay.

第二点，迈克尔说得对，这种情况在每个国家的长期债券市场都在发生。

Thing two, to Michael's point, this is happening everywhere with long bonds in every country.

第三点，美元计价的企业债务达到1.7万亿美元，比去年同期增加了大约30%。

Thing three, dollars one point seven trillion worth of corporate debt, is like 30% more than the same time last year.

竞争你知道的，就是AAA级

Competition for you know, it's AAA

债务方面，至少是通胀居高不下，甚至可能还在上升。

On debt for the most top of at least sticky inflation, if not rising.

对，战争和更高的通胀。

Yeah, the war and higher inflation.

对你来说，这就是

To you, this is where the

我觉得利率应该是多个天气系统相互作用，都在推动利率走高而不是走低。

I rates think it's should multiple weather systems all interacting in a way that are pushing in a direction of higher, not lower rates.

你说的这些都有道理。

It's everything you said.

基本上就是世界对资本的需求太大了，债券市场不得不重新定价并配给资本。

It's basically the world is demanding so much capital, the bond market has to reprice and ration it.

对吧？

Right?

你只能通过更高的收益率来找到市场出清的价格。

You have to just find the clearing price through higher yields.

财政方面的担忧，可以说长期来看有点像信用worthiness的问题，虽然有点模糊，但我总觉得它就像潜在的自身免疫疾病，在压力大的时候突然发作，开始出现症状，人们开始非常担心，但其实并不是——

The fiscal concerns, which arguably you could say long term are kind of a creditworthiness thing in a vague way, I always feel like it's kind of like the underlying autoimmune condition where it's like under high stress, all of a sudden that starts to flare up and it starts to create symptoms and people start to get really worried about it, but it's not really-

你讲的就是天气和气候的区别。

You're the difference between the weather and the climate.

对。

Yeah.

所以财政担忧总是存在的。

So the fiscal concerns are always gonna be there.

但就像你说的，今天美国债务有40万亿美元，我们在30万亿的时候也可能有同样的恐慌。

But like you say $40,000,000,000,000 in US debt today, we could have had the same panic at 30.

我不认为存在一个神奇的触发点，让世界突然改变。

I don't think there's a magic hard trigger level where all of a sudden the world changes.

我想说的是，你提到政治失灵，我们现在基本上把GDP的3%用于支付债务利息。

What I will say, you talk about political dysfunction, so we're basically at three percent of GDP goes to paying interest on the debt.