牛市来了，但没人再喝酒了。

好的。

All right.

所以其中一些，你有没有

So some of this Have you

那两个

the two

森林狼1.5倍，像是

wolves at 1.5 like

五年吗？

five years?

不是。

No.

嘿，罗德。

Hey, Rod.

我觉得大都会队以33亿美元成交，可能会成为历史上第一支转手价格更低的球队。

I would say that Mets at $3,300,000,000 could be the first franchise in history to resell at a lower price.

停一下。

Stop.

就像现代史上。

Like in modern history.

雄鹿队不在这上面吗？

Where the bucks aren't on here?

老兄，我记得斯坦布伦纳在七十年代从CBS买下洋基队，好像才花了六百万美元。

Dude, I think Steinbrenner bought the Yankees from CBS in the seventies for like 6 It million

那不算什么。

was nothing.

我觉得就是这样，真的。

Think that's what I literally think that's what it is.

好吧。

Alright.

所以我有个新规则，一个可能永远不会被通过的提案，不过也许它会通过。

So I have a new rule, a new rule proposal that will never pass muster, although maybe it will.

你不想看到NBA球队被转手。

You don't want NBA teams being flipped.

我知道这里有一些特殊情况。

Now I know there's extenuating circumstances.

我们对老板目前的情况并不完全了解，但他正在接受调查。

We don't know everything about what's happening with the owner, but he's under investigation.

看来事情没那么简单。

There's there's some smoke there.

但得有个五年的持有期，因为如果只是为了赚钱和倒卖球队，这对球迷来说可不是什么好事。

But there needs to be a five year holding period because if this is just about money and flipping the teams, this is not gonna be great for the fans.

就是说，得保持一定的稳定性。

Like, there needs to be some stability at

可以考虑少数股权，这是现在的新趋势。

think about minority stakes because that's the new thing.

哦，原来如此。

So I didn't realize.

库什纳曾经拥有灰熊队的一部分股份。

Kushner owned a piece of the grizzlies.

对。

Yeah.

他得卖掉那个才能买下八。

He had to sell that to buy a eight.

他曾经是迈阿密热火队5%的股东。

He he was a 5% owner in the Miami Heat.

显然，他必须卖掉那个。

Obviously, he has to sell that.

你还记得吗？我们请过David Edelman来，是的。

Don't you remember don't you remember we had David Edelman here Mhmm.

他解释了Michael Rubin必须卖掉他在76人队的股份，这样才能买下那个股份。

Who explained Michael Rubin had to sell his piece of the the sixers, and that's how he was able to buy that piece?

就是这样，对。

Like, that's Yeah.

因为如果你打算涉足博彩，或者同一联盟里出现了其他球队的投资机会，你就得把手里的股份卖掉。

Because if you wanna get into gambling, for example, or if you want or if another franchise opportunity comes along in the same league, you gotta sell.

但如果这只是为了在几年内倒手赚个一两亿，那对球迷来说可不是什么好事。

But if if this is just about flipping to make a couple of $100,000,000 in a few years or whatever, that's gonna be the it's not gonna be good for the fans.

要是他们纯粹想着怎么多赚钱，肯定会带来一些很糟糕的副作用。

If they are purely looking at this as how do I make more money, there's gonna be some nasty side effects.

那些私募股权的人可是全押上了。

The private equity guys are all in.

如果他们在基金包装上写上“体育”这两个字，那

They if they put the word sports on the wrapper of a fund, it

有个叫Future Sports的公司吗？

There's, sells is it Future Sports?

这是一家专门帮人对冲体育赛事风险之类的公司吗？

What's this company that's gonna be there to help hedge on sporting events and stuff like that?

不是那种预测市场。

Not a prediction market.

对冲球队的价值？

Hedge on the value of a team?

这个我可能说得不太准确。

It's it's something I'm I'm probably butchering this.

有相关的ETF吗？

Is there an ETF for that?

有一个……

There's a

以后会有的。

There will be.

我听过Eldridge的推介，那是Todd Boehly的公司。

I I took the pitch from Eldridge, which is Todd Boehly's firm.

那是私募股权。

It's private equity.

他在Guggenheim之类的地方赚了很多钱，而且他们拥有道奇队。

He's made a ton of money at, like, Guggenheim or whatever, and, they own the Dodgers.

对。

Right.

而且，不是倒卖。

And, not flipping.

但是，他们拿着方案出来，要买印度板球超级联赛的球队。

But, like, they're out with a deck, and they're gonna buy in Indian Premier League cricket teams.

他们要买足球队。

They're gonna buy soccer teams.

他们要买，这规模太大了。

They're gonna buy it's huge.

顺便说一下，跟NFL一样大。

By the way, it's as big as the NFL.

什么跟NFL一样大？

What is?

我毫不怀疑。

I have no doubt.

印度板球超级联赛

Indian Premier League cricket

那

What about

在我们不生活的另一半世界里，和NFL一样大。

in half in the other half of the world that we don't live in is as big as the NFL.

枕头大战锦标赛？

Pillow fighting championship?

ESPN。

ESPN.

好吧。

Alright.

你被赶出去了。

You're out of here.

你儿子在拿餐巾纸。

Your son's taking a napkin.

好故事。

A great story.

这真是个精彩的故事。

It's a great story.

他在摆姿势。

He's posing.

你见过他摆姿势吗？

Have you ever seen the posing?

贾斯汀，你在

Justin, what are

干什么呢？

you doing?

他就像

He's like

我跟你说，这孩子一直在躺着。

a I'm telling you, this kid's been laying down.

他在来的火车上就躺下了。

He laid down on the train on the way in.

他刚才在我办公室里也躺下了。

He he laid down in my office just now.

他现在在录音室里躺着呢。

He's laying down in the studio.

你觉得证券交易所怎么样？

What did you think of the stock exchange?

什么？

What?

是不是吃了培根汉堡？

Did have a Baconator?

他说，没有。

He's like, no.

带他去了凯恩斯。

Took him to Keynes.

哦。

Oh.

第一次

First

吗？

time?

不是。

No.

对吧？

Right?

第二次。

Second.

把你说的告诉他。

Tell tell him what you said.

把你说的告诉他。

Tell him what you said.

上市

Get on

在证券交易所。

the stock exchange.

为什么没有沙发？

Why isn't there a couch?

闭嘴。

Shut up.

上帝的精神。

The spirit of god.

有人告诉杰·伍兹。

Someone tell Jay Woods.

他就像个毛绒玩具，这个

He's like a stuffed animal, this

孩子。

kid.

难以置信。

Unbelievable.

好的。

Alright.

我们

Let's

开始节目吧。

let's do the show.

好的。

Alright.

开始吧。

Let's start it up.

Compound and Friends，第255集。

Compound and Friends, episode 255.

本期播客由VanEck赞助。

This podcast is brought to you by VanEck.

你看。

Look.

我们正处在一个债务上升、去全球化，以及为支撑AI经济而大规模积累实体资源的时代。

We're in an era of rising debt, deglobalization, and a massive physical build up to power the AI economy.

不是的。

No.

你来看。

You look.

这意味着对能源、原材料和基础设施的需求会增加。

That means more demand for energy, raw materials, and infrastructure.

从历史上看，这

Historically, that's

一直

been

是实物资产非常强劲的背景支撑。

a really strong backdrop for real assets.

而 VanEck 正好有对应的 ETF。

And VanEck has an ETF for that.

它叫 RAAX，是 VanEck 的实物资产 ETF。

It's called RAAX, the VanEck Real Assets ETF.

这是一支主动管理型基金，会根据宏观经济的实际走势来调整黄金、能源、基础设施和自然资源的配置，而不是只看过去的表现。

It's actively managed and shifts exposure across gold, energy, infrastructure, and natural resources based on what the macro environment is actually doing, not just what it's done in the past.

RAAX 是你做实物资产投资的一站式选择。

Rax is your one stop shop for real assets.

前往 vaneck.com/raaxcompound 了解更多信息。

Head over to vaneck.com/raaxcompound to learn more.

就是 vaneck.com/raaxcompound。

That's vaneck.com/raaxcompound.

复利。

Compound.

我的天哪。

Oh my god.

2.55美元？

$2.55?

天哪，你们可真是有福了。

Man, what a what a treat you guys are in for.

卫冕冠军托德·索恩来了。

Returning champion Todd Sohn in the house.

你们肯定兴奋得不行。

You could not be more excited.

托德，我真的很兴奋。

Todd is I'm excited.

托德是最棒的之一。

Todd is one of the best.

每当我收到邮件，看到发件人是Strategas的托德·索恩，我就会

When when my inbox says, Strategas, Todd Sohn, I'm

马上读起来。

reading it.

我知道你也有同感。

I know you feel

我也是这么觉得的。

the same way.

而且托德的很多图表都出现在我们的内容里，因为

And a lot of Todd's charts make their way into, compound content because

时间关系。

time.

我们非常喜欢他的图表。

We're such huge fans.

托德·索恩是贝尔德战略和战略资产管理公司的首席ETF策略师。

Todd Sohn is the chief ETF strategist for Baird Strategas and Strategas Asset Management.

他负责领导战略公司的ETF研究，分析行业趋势以及投资者资金流动是符合还是违背市场共识。

He leads Strategas' ETF research examining industry trends and how investor flows fit with or against the consensus.

他还是战略资产管理公司月度ETF领域手册的作者，该手册汇集了聚焦ETF行业增长的图表。

He is also the author of Strategas Asset Management's monthly ETF field book, a compendium of charts focusing on the growth of the ETF industry.

非常感谢你过来。

Thank you so much for coming by.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我们非常期待这一集。

We we we're so excited for this episode.

这就是那本田野手册。

This is the field book.

那是什么？

And what is that?

给它一个

Give it a

为什么叫田野手册而不是田野指南？

That's the Why is it a field book and not a field guide?

因为别人都用指南这个词。

Because other folks use the word guide.

市场指南可以接受。

Guide to the market can take it.

野外手册。

Field book.

我们就叫它野外手册。

We just called it the field book.

我们做了市场调研。

We did a market research.

你

Do you

知道什么是野外指南吗？

know what a field guide is?

好的。

Okay.

离开这里。

Out of here.

森林。

The forest.

如果你是观鸟爱好者，

If you're a bird watcher

我很喜欢鸟。

I love the bird.

就像邓肯那样，你会带着装备和书去野外，那本书就是野外手册。

As Duncan is, you would you would go out into the field with your equipment and a book, and the book's a field book.

就是这本书。

This is the book.

你带着

You go out

这本书去野外，

into field with

这本关于ETF的书。

this book on ETFs.

好的。

Alright.

这里面有鸟吗？

Are there birds in here?

没有。

No.

那你多久出一次这些？

So how often are you producing these?

这是每月出的。

This is monthly.

哇。

Wow.

这个发出去，太酷了，兄弟。

And this goes out to This is dope, man.

给Strategas的客户、投资Strategas ETF的人，还有我们的产品用户，目的就是让你了解ETF世界的一切。

Strategas clients, investors in Strategas ETFs, our our products, and it's meant to just be everything you wanna know about the ETF world.

我很喜欢。

I love it.

感觉不错。

Feel good.

感觉不错。

Feel Feel good.

喜欢。

Love it.

指南。

Guide.

图表，有那种活页夹版本吗？

Chart Is it available as a trapper keeper?

有。

Yes.

好的。

Alright.

太棒了！

Awesome.

好的。

Alright.

所以说我们在聊

So we were talk

我们边走边聊，走进了工作室。

we were talking as we walked walked into the studio.

我从没见过这么多ETF发行。

I've never seen this many ETFs launched.

这太疯狂了。

It's nuts.

前所未有的忙。

Busier than ever.

不过

But

再多说一点。

say more.

除了市场火爆之外，因为好像每个人都在赚钱。

Besides it being nuts, because everybody seems to be making money.

对。

Mhmm.

如果你推出一只基金，结果表现不佳，那又怎样？

If you launch a fund and it's a dud, it's almost like, who cares?

继续前进。

Move on.

直接关掉就行。

Just close it.

我们会同时推出十只。

We'll launch 10 at once.

好的。

Okay.

但这并不是随意的。

It's but it's not haphazard.

感觉不是那样的。

It it doesn't feel that way.

感觉不同的发行商对要覆盖的市场区域有不同的计划。

It feels that different issuers have different game plans for what parts of the map they wanna cover.

对我来说，感觉就像我见过ETF的意大利面大炮时刻。

And to me, it just it feels I've seen spaghetti cannon moments with ETFs.

我在2010年、2011年左右，当时他们推出了所有大宗商品ETF，还有那些，是的。

I was around 2010, 2011 when they were launching all the commodity ones and all the and there was a Yep.

农业，很多乱七八糟的。

Agriculture, a lot of nonsense.

现在推出的这些，我不是说它们都好，但确实有一些很棒的想法正在涌现。

The ones that are coming along, I'm not saying they're all good, but there are some really great ideas coming coming out.

这关乎，如果你是发行商，你的品牌是什么，你的目标市场是什么，以及什么热门。

It's about, if you're an issuer, what's your brand, what's your target market, and what's hot.

对吧？

Right?

如果你的品牌定位是上世纪四十年代的老牌基金经理，那你推出的肯定都是核心基础产品。

If your brand is you're a legacy fund manager from the nineteen forties, you're coming out with just core stuff.

对吧？

Right?

就是那种最传统、最标准的类型。

Plain vanilla.

不过，真的有这类受众吗？

Is there an audience for that, though?

他们主要是针对理财顾问。

They go for the advisers.

你知道的，可能总有一些理财顾问在寻找不同的产品。

You know, maybe there's always advisers who are looking for something different.

比如Dimensional和Avantis这两家。

Dimensional and Avantis.

Dimensional和Avantis。

Dimensional, Avantis.

对吧？

Right?

系统化因子。

Systematic factors.

所以你仍然可以做些传统的东西，而且还能打击对手。

So you can still do something vanilla and and hit hater.

不过那会更艰难。

It's gonna be more of a grind, though.

好的。

Okay.

你不会一觉醒来就发现，天哪。

You're not gonna wake up and it's like, oh my god.

一夜之间我的资产就多了十亿。

Have a billion of my assets overnight.

这种情况只有一种方式会发生。

The way that happens is only one way really.

对。

Yep.

要么收入极高，要么靠某个主题。

Either an extremely high income or a theme.

主题。

Theme.

是的。

Yeah.

DRAM。

DRAM.

ETF。

ETF.

那是最好的例子。

That's the best example.

哦，那很简单。

Oh, it's easy.

ETF。

ETF.

我做不到主题投资。

I can't Them thematic.

那是醒来账户里有一亿美元的方式。

That's the way to that's the way to wake up with a billion dollars in your account.

真是个大新闻。

What a launch.

天哪。

Holy shit.

对。

Yeah.

白宫那些人真厉害。

The White House guys are great.

他们现在在光子学领域做得非常出色。

They're excellent work now with photonics.

他们现在有一个很大的项目。

They have a big one now.

大概是两亿，不是两百亿，是两亿，或者可能

It's probably 200,000,000,000 200,000,000, not billion, 200,000,000 or maybe

三。什么是光子学？

3 What is a photonic?

我连光子是什么都不知道。

I don't even know what a photonic is.

这是人工智能的另一个层面。

It's another layer of the AI.

就是激光。

It's a laser.

你听说过他们的光环ETF吗？

Have you heard of their halo ETF?

当然，我知道Halo ETF，但问题是我总是输入Halo的股票代码，那是一家制药公司。

Of course, I know the Halo ETF, but the problem is I keep typing in the ticker Halo, which is a pharmaceutical company.

Halo。

Halo.

知道吗？

Know?

Mahalo。

Mahalo.

他们真的需要买，我觉得Halo是一家制药公司的股票代码。

They really need to buy I think Halo is a pharmaceutical company's ticker.

所以我总是输入那个。

So I keep typing that in.

直接买下来，然后分拆出去。

Just buy them and spin them out.

就像Halo Therapeutic或者Halo什么的。

It's like Halo Therapeutic or Halo something.

好的。

Alright.

那他们会用LOHA这个代码吗？这其实也不是Halo倒过来拼的吧？

So will they have LOHA, which is not even halo backwards really?

Lo-？

Lo-?

只是字母有些相同而已。

It's just sort of some of the same letters.

Lo op，我连读都读不出来。

Lo op I can't even pronounce it.

这个代码又不是我起的。

I didn't come up with the ticker.

没关系。

It's okay.

但我确实挺喜欢这个做法的。

But I do like the approach.

我觉得有意思的是，Round Hill推出了Halo Yeah。

And I think what's interesting is that Round Hill launched Halo Yeah.

这跟他们最热门的基金正好相反。

Which is the antithesis of their hottest fund.

哦，确实。

Oh, absolutely.

真的是这样。

Literally.

我觉得这是个很好的策略。

I I I think it's a great strategy.

对吧？

Right?

对他们来说，这就像是一种平衡。

Well, for them, it's a it's like a a balance.

这跟相关性有关。

It's a it's a correlation thing.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

这样一天之内你就可以构建这样的投资组合。

On one day and you can structure a portfolio like that.

某一天，我的记忆芯片股票上涨。

One day, my memory stocks are up.

另一天，我的反人工智能股票又涨了。

The other day, my, anti AI stocks are

顺便说一句，如果联邦调查局在听的话，我可不是在推荐交易所交易基金。

By the way, if the FBI is listening, I'm not promoting ETFs here.

拜托。

Please.

别买。

Don't buy it.

我真的不知道，Todd，

I really don't Todd,

不过，你知道2026年会有什么不同吗？

like you know what's different about 2026, though?

不仅仅是新发行的数量。

It's not just the number of new issues.

而是新发行人的数量。

It's the number of new issuers.

至少，比如说，你听说过一家叫Corgi的公司吗？

At least, for example, have you ever heard of a company called Corgi?

呃。

Ugh.

我知道这家公司。

I'm aware of it.

但我完全不知道他们是谁，也不知道他们从哪来的。

I have no idea who they are or where they come from.

我也是最近才知道的。

So I only just found out about it kinda recently.

给我们讲讲他们的故事吧。

Tell us their story.

好，那行。

So okay.

关于Corgi，如果他们正在听的话，如果我讲错了他们的背景，我先道个歉。

So Corgi and if they're listening, I apologize if I butcher their backstory.

他们是一家Y Combinator支持的公司。

They are a y combinator backed company.

我不知道Y Combinator。

I don't know y combinator.

硅谷的钱。

Silicon Valley money.

等等。

Wait.

抱歉。

Sorry.

Y Combinator 投资了一家 ETF 公司？

Y combinator backed an ETF company?

对。

Yeah.

差不多吧。

Something like that.

那曾经是一种荣誉的象征。

That used to be a badge of honor.

现在他们毕业的公司有九千家。

Now they have a graduate class of 9,000 companies.

我不知道。

I don't know.

好吧。

Alright.

随便吧。

Whatever.

钱就是从这里赚来的。

That's where the money comes from.

对。

Yeah.

那边的人基本都在说，他们认为某些领域的费用还是太高了。

And the folks there are basically saying, we still think fees in certain segments are too high.

杠杆型ETF和主题型ETF。

Leveraged ETFs and thematic ETFs.

所以他们打算把市面上所有的东西都做成ETF，然后拼命扩大规模。

So they are going to launch everything under the sun, and they're just gonna try and scale it up.

所以他们推出了30多种不同的主题ETF，涵盖了我们熟知的各种领域，比如内存-

So they did 30 different thematic ETFs, everything that we know, memory-

他们就是在复制那些最热门的产品，只是费率更低

They're copying the most popular funds, but for a lower

成本减半，大约35个基点。

For half the cost, about 35 basis points.

多么

What a

好的宣传。

great pitch.

而且他们不需要赚钱。

And they don't have to make money.

他们只需要把它卖给其他Scale。

They just have to sell it to some other Scale

扩大规模。

it up.

对。

Yeah.

他们说得对。

They right.

这有点像好莱坞的票房策略。

And it's kind of the Hollywood box office approach.

我一年发行十部电影，七部扑街，三部大卖。

I release 10 films in a year, seven are flops, three are hits.

这正是

That's what

我讨厌的。

I hate.

而且大卖的电影会补贴扑街的。

And the hits will pay for the flops.

大卖的补贴扑街的。

Hits pay for the flops.

而且他们用杠杆ETF也在这么做，无论是单只股票还是指数，但费率只有50个基点。

And they're doing it with levered ETFs too, single stock and index based, but at 50 basis points.

杠杆ETF通常要90到120个基点吧。

Lever ETFs are usually, what, 90 to 120.

其他ETF发行商会怎么看他们？他们会说，你们在干什么？

Do the other ETF issuers look at them like, guys, what are you doing?

我们的业务做得很好。

We have great businesses.

为什么要这样

Why are acting

做？

on this?

我觉得他们有点不安。

I think there's a little consternation.

我赞赏他们试图在费率上做出改变，但这也是一个分销的游戏。

I applaud them for trying to do something different on the fees basis, but it's also a distribution game.

如果你没有分销渠道，那你就走不远。

If you don't have the distribution, then you're not going anywhere.

以前有ETF会议。

There used to be ETF conferences.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得这会是一场恶战。

I feel like this would be a knife fight.

哦，那绝对是

Oh, it's definitely a

一场恶战。

knife fight.

比如说，如果我们都在外交官酒店，而且是2016年，那场面会很难看。

Like, if we were all at the Diplomat Hotel and this was 2016, this get ugly.

有意思的是，他们的主题基金是主动管理的，但我觉得可能更多是AI在管理，而不是投资组合经理。

And it's interesting because their thematic funds are actively managed, but I think it's probably more AI managed than portfolio managers.

表现怎么样？现在说还为时过早吗？

How's the performance where it's too soon?

确实太早了。

They're too soon.

它们太早了。

They're too soon.

他们现在还有一只光子ETF。

They have now they also have a photonic ETF.

那个有400。

That has 400.

我可能有一个。

I might have one.

机构会在意他们从没听说过Corgi吗？

Do institutions care that they've never heard of Corgi?

他们会交易它吗？

Would they ever trade it?

还是需要三年？不。

Or does it need three years No.

的

Of

我觉得如果他们能成为某个主题里流动性最强的工具，他们不会在乎的。

I think if they were to become the liquidity dominant vehicle in a theme, they don't care.

我不觉得，我觉得就是那篮子股票。

I don't I think it's the basket of stocks.

那里有流动性。

There's liquidity there.

我觉得人们不会在乎。

I don't think people care.

如果你交易一亿美元，那就不一样了。

If you're trading $100,000,000 it's different.

你需要流动性。

You want the liquidity.

等等。

Wait.

你什么意思？

What do you mean?

你是说只要底层股票……

You mean as long as the underlying I stock's

我觉得品牌名不像2018年那样重要了。

don't think the brand name matters like it used to in 2018.

好的。

Okay.

发行方的品牌。

Of the issuer.

对对冲基金来说，不重要。

To a hedge fund, no.

但对财务顾问来说，重要。

But to a financial advisor, yes.

是的。

Yeah.

财务买家会承担。

Financial buyers carry.

但我给你举个例子，我要继续讲这个光子学，尽管我们谁都不知道光子到底是什么鬼。

But I'll give you an example, and we're gonna I'm gonna stay on this photonics even though none of us have any idea what the hell photonic is.

迈克尔会去谷歌搜一下。

Michael's gonna Google it.

我会发邮件。

I'll email it.

现在有五只光子ETF。

There are five photonic ETFs right now.

它们都在全球上市了。

They've all launched in the world.

而且有三只光子股票。

And there are three photonic stocks.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

它们被稀释了。

They're get watered down.

它们只是

They just

只是每种的比例不同，对吧？

have different they just have different, proportions of each?

对。

Yeah.

它们都是什么，最大的那个是什么？

They're all what's the big one?

好的。

Alright.

那光子动量呢？

And photonic Momentum?

它们瞄准的是光网络、激光器和硅光子组件。

They target optical networking lasers and silicon photonic components.

这简直就是个激光器。

It's a freaking laser.

对。

Yeah.

真是激光器。

Freaking lasers.

哦，好吧，

Oh, well,

不知道那是什么。

don't know what it is.

好。

Okay.

上周之前有四个。

There were four of them previous to the last week.

柯基、拥抱，还有另外两个。

Corgi, Cuddle, and two others.

我记不清我什么时候有过。

I cannot remember off time I had.

圆山。

Round Hill.

圆特马。

Round Tema.

特马是谁？

Who's Tema?

特马。

Tema.

特马。

Tema.

特马。

Tema.

是TEMU ETF吗？

Is it TEMU ETF?

TEMU ETF。

TEMU ETF.

TEMU EMU。

TEMU EMU.

这四个当时都在，而且交易量还不错。

The four of these were around, and they were doing some volume.

Round Hill 推出了他们的光子基金，把交易量都吸走了。

Round Hill launches their photonics fund and takes all the volume.

啊。

Ah.

而且现在才成立三四天。

And it's only three or four days old now.

他们的交易量已经超过其他四个的总和了。

They're already doing more volume than the other four combined.

你明白吗？

Do you understand?

所以等到最后，这些主动型或者主题型的基金费率都会涨到10个基点吗？

So are the active slash thematics gonna be 10 basis point products by the time this is done?

到本世纪末的话，这也不算离谱。

By the end of the decade, it's not unreasonable.

那些老牌机构会反击并降价吗？

Will the incumbents fight back and cut prices?

他们不得不这么做。

They're gonna have to.

他们不得不这么做。

They're gonna have to.

特别是等这些基金运作一段时间、逐渐成熟之后。

Especially if there's especially once these funds get seasoned and aged.

如果你发现它们之间没有任何跟踪误差，那就有问题了。

And if you're seeing that there's no tracking error between them, then you have a problem.

你知道什么最离谱吗？

You know what's nuts?

没有裁判。

There's no referee.

对。

No.

是的。

Yeah.

就像

Like

自由市场。

free market.

如果你在别的行业这样坑人，你会被告上法庭。

If you rip people off like this in some other business, you're gonna go to court.

你可能会赢，但没有裁判说这个ETF和另一个ETF看起来一模一样。

You might prevail, but there's no referee saying that ETF looks exactly like a different ETF.

你不能像他们那样为所欲为。

You can't just do what they're doing.

还记得2017年HAC被嘲笑的时候吗？

Remember in 2017 when HAC was mocked?

我们的朋友，那个叫什么来着，安德鲁？

The our friend what was Andrew?

对，没错。

Well, right.

然后，大家都觉得，这不对。

And then- everybody was like everybody was like, This is not right.

这太扯了。

This is bullshit.

嘘那个人。

Boo that man.

这不道德。

This is unethical.

没人关心。

Nobody cares.

等等，等一下。

Well, wait, wait.

这是两码事。

It's two different things.

他的ETF被人偷走了。

He had an ETF stolen from him.

据说是，据说是——不。

Allegedly, allegedly- No.

不是采购的事。

Not for procurement.

对。

Yeah.

据说他创建了一个ETF。

Allegedly, he created an ETF.

然后就被赶出来了。

And then got booted.

你说得对。

You're right.

这不是什么……他们找到了摆脱他们的办法。

Is that something that's not something not They found a way to get rid of them.

我们想说的是，假如，假如有个人过来说，看，我刚刚发明了ChatGPT。

What we're saying is like, if hypothe if hypothetically, somebody came along and said, look, I just invented I just invented ChatGPT.

不，你没有。

No, you didn't.

它已经存在了。

It exists already.

对。

Yeah.

你不能把你的产品叫做……没有人会来救这些老牌公司，当他们……

You can't call your product like, there's nobody coming to rescue these incumbents as they as they get

如果你能以更低的价格做出好产品，他们自然会来找你。

If you could build a great product at a cheaper price, they will they will come to you.

你觉得这事不会

I don't you think this

就只到三个基点就完了吗？

just ends at three basis points?

杠杆产品那边不是，因为没人在乎。

Not for the leverage stuff because nobody cares.

杠杆类的东西不一样，因为它本来就应该是高风险的。

Leveraged stuff is different just because it's supposed to be disabling.

所以说，没人会从59个基点的产品换到37个基点的，因为没人在乎这个。

So, nobody's going from one that's 59 basis points to one that's 37 because nobody cares.

反正你本来就是在做交易。

You're trading it anyway.

除非你是品牌的忠实粉丝。

Unless you are a brand loyalist.

我觉得这次会是对品牌忠诚度的一次很好的考验。

I think this is going be a great test of brand loyalty.

Roundhell已经建立了自己的品牌。

Roundhell has developed their brand.

人们都认识这个品牌。

People know the brand.

其他那些想进入这个领域的新兴发行商，你们得努力了。

These other upstart issuers who are trying to get in the space, you gotta work on it.

但第二梯队和第三梯队还有谁呢？

But who else in that second and third tier?

我这么说不是不尊重。

I don't mean that as a term of disrespect.

我的意思是，不是贝莱德、先锋领航、道富这些。

I mean not BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street.

中产阶级。

The middle class.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

因为我觉得WisdomTree之前是有品牌的。

Because I felt as though WisdomTree had a brand.

没错。

Right.

它有自己的追随者，还有Jeremy那些人。你觉得还有谁真正有品牌？我不是说他们能把公司卖多少钱，而是谁有那种品牌，因为我知道你什么都能卖出去，对吧。

It had like its adherents and the Jeremy's and Who else do you think has a real I mean, not how much could they sell the company for, but who has a brand that because I know you could sell anything Right.

能引起共鸣的？

That resonates?

你可以去年成立一家公司，现在就能卖掉，但是——

You could start a company last year and sell it right now, but-

我觉得最能引起共鸣的品牌是——Direction？

The brand that I think resonates the most is- Direction?

VanEck。

VanEck.

我正要说是VanEck。

I was about to say VanEck.

我正要说是VanEck。

I was about to say VanEck.

你这么说，我太高兴了

I'm so glad you

你这么说，我太高兴了。

said that.

对。

Yeah.

摇头。

SMH.

摇头。

SMH.

这没什么高深的，但他们就是牢牢掌控着局面。

There's nothing rocket science y there, but they've got the stranglehold.

在我看来，他们在ETF领域拥有全球最好的代码。

They have the best ticker in the world of ETFs to me.

RAAX？

RAAX?

不是。

No.

长期持有。

HODL.

哦。

Oh.

他们持有HODL。

Have HODL.

他们有热度。

They have buzz.

他们做过社交媒体那一块吗？

They did the social media one?