Josh敲响钟声，十五年变迁、银行财报、内部状况良好

当你看到能源股上涨时，现在很多都在涨，我希望你记住，这可能会走得比你想的更远、更久。

And when you see energy stocks running up, which many of them are now doing, I want you to remember, this could go way further and way longer than you might actually think is possible.

这绝对有可能继续涨。

This absolutely could run.

金融板块这块挺有意思的。

The financials aspect is pretty interesting.

对。

Yes.

这个你没法颠覆。

You can't disrupt that.

对。

Yes.

我还要告诉你，美国的百万富翁们。

I will also tell you the millionaires in the United States.

来，我们把这个放出来。

So here, let's put this up.

你在打什么字？

What are you typing?

你到底在打什么字？

What can you possibly be typing?

好的。

All right.

美国百万富翁的数量，2011年对比现在。

Millionaires in the US, 2011 versus now.

这个数字是包含房产的。

So this is inclusive of the home.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以这是净资产。

So this is net worth.

2011年有1000万，而今天有2360万个百万富翁家庭。

In 2011, there were 10 million, and today, there are 23.6 million millionaire households.

这意味着在过去15年里，新增了1350万个百万富翁家庭。

That is a change of 13 and a half million new millionaire households over the last 15 years.

所以这是2.3倍的增长。

So that is 2.3X.

仅去年一年，美国就新增了44万个百万富翁家庭。

There were 440,000 new US millionaire households created just last year.

现在美国拥有全球40%的百万富翁。

The US now has 40% of the world's millionaires.

如果让你按1到10分打分，百万富翁家庭的增长有多少归因于股市，而其他因素呢？我知道还有其他因素，但相对于所有其他因素，你会说这个说法是10分满分，还是8分满分？

If you had to rank on the scale of one to 10, how much of that growth in millionaire households is due to the stock market versus-- Well, I know there's other factors, but versus all other factors, would you say that statement is true as a 10 out of 10, an eight out of 10?

你怎么看待为什么我们在15年内增加了1350万个新的百万富翁家庭？

What would be your take on why we have added 13 and a half million new millionaire households in 15 years?

让我这么说吧。

Let me put it this way.

如果有一个饼图来解释百万富翁增长的来源，我会说85%归因于股市，然后15%——

If there's a pie chart to explain the growth of the rise of millionaires, I would say 85% of it is due to the stock market, and then 15%-

85。

85

……然后是房地产，其他因素都排在后面。

... and is real estate, and then everything else.

对。

Yes.

然后人们会说：“那初创公司呢？”

And people say, "Oh, what about startups?"

对，那些最终上市的初创公司。

Right, startups that eventually go public.

我觉得我们得把私人……

I feel like we have to include the private-

就是股市。

It's the stock market.

就是股市。

It's the stock market.

然后还有一点房地产，对。

And then a little bit of real estate, yeah.

因为私人资产的增长是公开股票市场牛市的副产品。

Because the growth in the private assets is a byproduct of a bull market for public stocks.

所以这就是美国与其他所有国家的区别。

So this is what separates the United States from all other countries.

我们强迫人们进入股市，有些情况下是连拖带拽的。

We have forced people, kicking and screaming in some cases, into the stock market.

我们把整个退休制度都建立在股市增长的基础上。

We have based the entirety of retirement around The equity market growing.

这个国家没有养老金制度。

We don't do pensions in this country.

我们就是这样做的，而且效果不错。

This is how we do it, and it's working.

说到401K和退休账户余额，2011年9月是2.9万亿美元。

Speaking of 401Ks and retirement balances, 2.9 trillion in September 2011.

而今天，这个数字接近11万亿美元。

Today, almost $11 trillion.

增长了272%，几乎是原来的四倍。

That's 272%, almost a quadruple.

你知道这有什么了不起的吗？

You know what's great about this?

股票市场显然分布很不均匀，对吧？

So the stock market is obviously very unevenly distributed, right?

富人，超级富豪，他们持有股票。

Rich people, the mega wealthy own stocks.

但在这张图表里不是这样。

But not in this chart.

比尔·盖茨持有的股票比我们所有人加起来都多，但看看401K计划。

Bill Gates owns a lot more stocks than all of us combined, but look at the 401K.

401K计划里有很多平等性，而且规模达到11万亿美元。

There's a lot of equality in the 401K plan, and it's $11 trillion.

是的。

Yes.

分布得很广，虽然不是完全平均，但已经非常接近了。

Spread out, not evenly, but pretty damn close.

这已经是最平等的了。

That is as egalitarian as it gets.

任何在公司或企业工作并且有退休计划的人都能参与。

Anyone with a job at a company or corporation that's got a plan is able to access it.

而且我们都有相同的限额，对吧？

And we all have the same limit, right?

所有雇主设定的供款计划，也就是401K，从4.3万亿增长到了15万亿。

All employer-defined contribution plans, which is 401K, gone from 4.3 trillion to 15 trillion.

美国总的退休资产，从18万亿增长到了51万亿。

Total US retirement assets, 18 trillion to 51 trillion.

所以这包括了个人退休账户——

So that's inclusive of IRAs-

还有403B和其他各种计划。

... and 403Bs and all the rest.

这翻了三倍。

That's a triple.

如今，退休资产，也就是投入投资的退休资产，已经占到所有家庭金融资产的33%。

Retirement assets today, invested retirement assets, are now 33% of all household financial assets.

目前这个国家有7000万人在为401K计划供款。

We have 70 million people in this country currently contributing to 401Ks.

那太好了。

That's great.

最后我们要看的是美国股票持有情况。

The last thing we're going to do, US stock ownership.

我觉得这个挺有意思的。

I thought this was interesting.

这个数据不是线性的，而且也没有在增长。

It is not linear, and it is not growing.

它有过起起伏伏。

It has had ebbs and flows.

2011年，57%的美国人持有股票。

In 2011, 57% of Americans owned stock.

到了2013到2016年那段时间，这个数字降到了52%，这是盖洛普记录以来的最低点。

By the 2013, 2016 period, that number had fallen to 52%, which is the lowest that Gallup says they've ever recorded.

到2022年，这个数字回升到了58%，可能多亏了迷因股热潮，还有人们在家闲着没事开股票账户。

We had a rebound to 58% by 2022, probably thanks to the meme stock craze, and people sitting at home opening brokerage accounts.

我们在2024年和2025年达到了62%的高点，或者说是一个局部高点。

We hit a high in '24 and '25 at 62%, or a local high.

美联储说，截至2022年，58%的家庭持有股票。

The Federal Reserve says 58% of families held stock as of 2022.

所以我们现在是在一个区间里来回波动，并没有朝着70%的家庭持股比例迈进。

So we're sort of bouncing around in a range that's not on its way to 70% of households.

也许这正是特朗普账户想要解决的问题的一部分，因为随着股市增长，这个数字本应该上升。

And maybe that's part of the problem that the Trump accounts are meant to address, because that number should be growing as the stock market grows.

你同意吗？

Do you agree?

是的，而且得感谢迈克尔·戴尔和他的妻子，捐了62.5亿美元。

Yes, and credit Michael Dell and his wife, $6.25 billion.

我的意思是，天哪。

I mean, holy shit.

太厉害了。

Amazing.

确实非常厉害。

Really amazing.

最富有的1%家庭拥有所有股票的一半。

The top 1% of households own half of all stock.

而底层50%的家庭只拥有股市的1%。

The bottom 50% of households own 1% of the stock market.

如果你问我，经济最大的问题是什么？

If you ask me, what is the single biggest problem with the economy?

显然，人们会抱怨物价高，但你就是物价高的原因。

Obviously, people would complain high prices, but you are the reason for the high prices.

你就是通货膨胀。

You are the inflation.

我会说，问题就在这。

I would say it's this.

想想看。

Think about that.

美国底层50%的人只拥有1%的市场。

The bottom 50% of America only has 1% of the market.

这分布也太不均了。

Talk about not evenly distributed.

我们需要更多人参与到这个让美国领先世界的经济奇迹中来。

We need more participation in this economic miracle that has set America apart from the rest of the world.

只有这样，我们才能停止互相争吵、指责和阶级斗争。

It's the only way we could stop fighting and screaming at each other and accusing each other, and the class warfare.

唯一的办法就是让每个人的地位都能有所提升。

It's the only way is that everybody has to see some elevation of their status.

不能只是最富有的那1%的人占有一半的财富。

It can't just be the top 1% with half the pie.

这就是我的观点。

So that's me on my soapbox.

我知道这话说起来容易。

I know that's an easy thing to say.

大家都会同意，但是——

Everybody would agree with it, but-

……这确实是事实。

... it's really true.

真有勇气。

Really brave.

我知道。

I know.

真是令人惊叹，也很勇敢。

Stunning and brave.

总之，首先恭喜你。

Anyway, first of all, congratulations.

这次表现太棒了。

Epic run.

真的。

Truly.

这是最后一个问题。

Here's the last question.

你觉得我能坚持到30年吗？

Do you think I'll make it to 30 years?

不，没戏。

No. No chance.

另外，感谢肖恩整理了一系列精彩的图表。

And also, thank you to Sean for putting together an incredible run of charts.

做得真棒。

Really stellar work.

肖恩·鲁索真是让人眼前一亮。

Sean Russo is a revelation.

他今天下午一直在赶这些图表，做得非常出色。

He was grinding those out this afternoon, and these are amazing charts.

我们以后肯定会用到的。

We're going to use them later, for sure.

我觉得我是为肖恩铺路的人。

I feel like I walked so Sean could run.

说得对。

Fair.

肖恩的图表比你以前做的都好。

Sean's charts are better than your charts ever were.

而且——

And-

不是。

No

不是？

No?

这一点毫无疑问。

There's no doubt about that.

毫无疑问。

No doubt.

你确实铺了路。

You definitely walked.

这一点毫无疑问。

There's no doubt about that.

你确实……

You definitely...

好了，那我们再来讲银行。

All right, so we're doing banks again.

感觉就像《土拨鼠之日》一样——

It feels almost like Groundhog Day-

怎么说？

How so?

……对我来说今天就是这样。

... today did for me.

我们刚刚听到银行说了同样的话，说了很久了。

We've just heard the banks say the same thing for a long time.

我不知道。

I don't know.

是十个季度了吗？

Is it 10 quarters?

是不是连续三年了？

Is it like three years in a row?

呃，可能不是连续三年。

Eh, probably not three years in a row.

但确实感觉像是，好吧，他们又在说那些老一套的话。

But it does feel like it's like, all right, they're saying what they always say.

我很想聊聊市场的反应，但，我也不知道。

I'm curious to talk about the market's reaction, but, I don't know.

里面真没什么让人眼前一亮的东西。

There wasn't a whole lot in there that was like, whoa.

高盛表现很抢眼。

Goldman's on fire.

杰米·戴蒙对经济的警告是好的，但他确实在警告。

Jamie Dimon's warning about the economy's good, but he's warning.

你说得对。

You're right.

你知道什么会很有趣吗？

You know what would be fun?

下个季度，在银行财报出来之前，我们先写好剧本。

Next quarter, before the bank earnings, let's write the script.

对，他每次都是这样，也没什么问题，对吧？

Yeah, it's the same thing every time with him, and it's fine, right?

其实没什么大变化。

Nothing really has changed that much.

说得好。

It's a great point.

我们先从那个特例说起，花旗。

Let's start with the outlier, Citi.

把这个图表调出来。

Put this chart up.

花旗今天跌了5.6%。

Citi had a negative 5.6% day today.

我不想过度解读，因为这只股票年初表现火热，已经涨了不少。

I don't want to make too much of it because the stock obviously started off the year red hot and has run up.

它是不是表现最好的银行，或者至少是很好的——

Is it the best performing bank, or it's certainly good-

直到最近还是这样。

It was until recently.

但花旗这个夏天表现不错。

But Citi had a nice summer.

我们先说到这里。

Let's leave it there.

六月底的时候股价还超过140美元，现在刚跌到124美元，虽然不算灾难，但对银行股来说，我觉得波动挺大的。

It was over $140 a share in late June, and now it just ticked down to $124, which is not catastrophic, but for a bank stock, I guess that's a lot of movement.

盈利和收入方面都在降温。

The earnings and revenue Things are cooling off.

所以这就是华尔街说花旗下跌的原因。

So these are the reasons people on the street were saying Citi fell.

投行业务费用环比下降了13%，也就是跟上次财报相比。

Investment banking fees were down 13% sequentially, meaning from the last time they reported.

那确实挺多的。

That's a lot.

这是所有银行中季度跌幅最大的。

It was the biggest quarterly decline among all the banks.

信贷成本上升了，所以拨备比上个季度增加得更多，这一点大家都很关注。

Credit costs rose, so the reserve build was larger than last quarter, which people pay attention to.

为什么拨备会增加呢？

Why does the reserve grow?

有时候是因为他们发放的信贷总额增加了。

Sometimes it's a function of the total amount of credit they're putting out there.

这些信贷需要计提拨备。

They have to be reserved against it.

但有时候是因为他们在借款人数据中看到了一些让他们担忧的迹象。

But sometimes because they're seeing something in the data amongst their borrowers that gives them pause.

我们不清楚具体原因，但信用卡业务的利润受到了奖励和拨备的影响。

We don't know the specific reasons, but credit card profit was hurt by rewards and provisions.

随着利率上升，信贷问题成了大家最担心的。

With rates rising, credit is what people are worried about.

手续费收入表现疲软。

Fee income was soft.

非利息收入，就是银行办理交易时收取的费用，下降了4%。

Non-interest revenue, this is where they do a banking transaction and charge a fee, was negative 4%.

营收虽然略超预期，但市场期望很高。

The revenue beat was barely a beat, and expectations were high.

我觉得这只股票今年一度上涨了38%。

I think the stock at one point was up 38% year to date.

所以，把这些因素综合起来，这就是为什么花旗股价反应那么大的原因。

So, you combine all those things, and that's why I think you got that outsized negative reaction in Citi.

虽然不至于世界末日，但把图表再调出来看看。

Not the end of the world, but put the chart back up.

这明显是跌破关键位了。

This is a clear violation.

首先，它跌破了50日均线，然后又跌破了200日均线。

First off, it's a failure at the 50-day, and then it's a violation below the 200-day.

而且你看动量指标也在确认，RSI跌到了36。

And you see momentum confirming, falling to a 36 RSI.

我在这里不会去抄底。

I'm not a dip buyer here.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

嗯，我觉得听众里应该没人持有花旗的股票。

Well, I don't think anybody listening owns Citigroup.

所以我们来聊聊下一只股票吧。

So let's talk about the next stock.

好的。

All right.

你来。

You go.

我们有什么？

What do we got?

你想聊摩根大通还是高盛？

JPMorgan you want to do or Goldman?

好，那就聊摩根大通吧。

Yeah, let's do JPMorgan.

还是老样子，一切照常。

Again, it was business as usual.

我觉得他们关于AI代理的说法挺有意思的，不管是Instinct、Muse还是别的什么，你根本没法进入自己的银行账户。

I thought it was interesting what they had to say about the AI agents, whether it's Instinct, Muse, or whatever else, you're just not going to be able to get into your bank account.

他们不允许这么做。

They're not allowing it.

富达和那些券商账户也是同样的做法。

Fidelity and the brokerage accounts are doing the same.

聪明。

Smart.

听我说。

Listen.

你也没那么着急——

You're not in that much of a rush-

不，其实——

No, it's-

……需要AI代理进入你的银行账户。

... where you need an AI agent in your bank account.

没关系。

It's okay.

我不介意。

I'm not mad about it.

让我印象深刻的是5万亿美元的财富资产，而不是客户资产。

What stood out to me was $5 trillion in wealth assets, and not client assets.

我觉得是资产管理规模，我记得。

I think it was asset management assets, I believe.

不管怎样。

Either way.

不是别的方向。

Not other way.

我觉得就是这个数字。

I think that's the number.

那真是巨大。

That is huge.

我记得他们刚推出ETF业务的时候，我记得他们是用短期债券推出的，当时看起来挺奇怪的。

I remember when they first launched their ETF business, I think it was short-term bonds that they launched with, and it seemed weird at the time.

那大概是2017年、2018年，现在差不多十年过去了，它已经成了一个巨头。

This was probably 2017, 2018, and here we are nearly a decade later and it's a juggernaut.

这绝对是一个庞大的业务，所以得给他们点赞。

It's an absolute behemoth of a business, so credit to them.

迈克·梅奥在找茬。

Mike Mayo is breaking balls.

那还有什么新鲜的呢？

Well, what else is new?

他在财报里找不到AI带来的好处。

He can't find the AI benefits in the earnings release.

首席财务官杰里米·巴纳姆说，这些好处还看不出来。

Jeremy Barnum, the CFO, said they're not visible yet.

梅奥提到——

Mayo cited-

他们花了很多钱。

They're spending a lot of money.

我觉得他们的支出，是多少来着，这个季度130亿？

I think their expenses are, what was it, 13 billion for the quarter?

他们花了很多钱。

They're spending a lot of money.

对。

Yes.

所以他纠正了。

So he corrected.

梅奥提到AI成本是20亿，但他们说，不，更像是……全年来看。

Mayo cited 2 billion in AI costs and they said, "No, it's more like..." For the year.

他说，不，全年更像是7亿。

He said, "No, it's more like 700 million for the year."

另一个有趣的事情是，他们停止了股票回购。

The other interesting thing is that they stopped buying back stock.

十亿。

A billion.

有人质疑这意味着什么？

There was some questions about what does it mean?

我们需要担心这个吗？

Do we have to worry about that?

我想他们大概说，有300亿的回购授权，没什么特别含义。

And I think they said something like, "It's a $30 billion buyback authorization, and there's no meaning there."

哦，这是美国银行。

Oh, this is Bank of America.

抱歉。

I'm sorry.

这不是摩根大通。

This wasn't JPMorgan.

不，也是摩根大通。

No. It was JPMorgan, too.

所以他们回购了10亿美元，而上一季度是70亿，我想。

So they bought back a billion dollars, down from 7 billion last quarter, I think.

好的。

Okay.

行。

All right.

所以，关于这个的疑问，我觉得是合理的。

So, questions about that, I guess, are legitimate.

我们来看看高盛，因为那是个大超预期。

Let's do Goldman because that was a blowout.

每股17美元，而预期是13.65美元。

$17 a share versus $13.65 expected.

营收达到了公司历史上第二高的季度营收，达到1868亿美元。

Revenue was its second highest quarterly revenue number ever at 18 spots, 68 billion.

股票业务收入增长了72%，股票融资创下纪录，增长了96%。

Equities revenue was up 72%, and equity financing hit a record, up 96%.

咨询费收入17亿美元，又是一个纪录。

Advisory fees, 1.7 billion, another record.

他们似乎在所有方面都表现得很出色。

They just seem to be crushing it all across the board.

你对高盛的表现有什么看法？

What was your reaction to Goldman?

天哪，我刚才想说什么来着？

God, what was I just about to say?

高盛。

Goldman.

不急。

No rush.

等一下。

Hold on.

我们不是直播。

We're not live.

哎呀，真是的。

Gosh dang it.

首先，我讨厌这种股价反应。

First of all, I hate the stock reaction.

在财报出来之前，我对银行股是持乐观态度的，因为我觉得情况还不错。

I was optimistic on banks going into the earnings because I thought the setup was okay.

我觉得他们的预期，至少从股价来看，已经相当不错了。

I thought their expectations, at least based on the stock price, was pretty damn good.

我到底想说什么关于高盛的呢？

What the hell was I going to say about Goldman?

我不知道。

I don't know.

你觉得呢？

What do you think?

我会想起来的。

It'll come to me.

有两位不同的分析师问到了CEO继任的问题。

Two different analysts asked about CEO succession.

是的。

Yes.

他两次说：“目前没有进行中的继任、过渡或时间表。”

And he said twice, "There is no succession, transition, or timeline currently underway."

意思是，这在银行内部甚至都不是一个话题，但我敢肯定其实是有在讨论的。

Meaning, it's not even a conversation internally at the bank, and I'm sure it is.

哦。

Oh.

但这并不是他们现在 actively 担心的事情。

But it's not something that they're actively worried about right now.

我觉得这个问题挺有意思的。

I thought this was an interesting question.

他们问："业绩里有没有什么异常情况，特别是跟情境意识相关的？"

They said, "Anything unusual in the results, particularly as it relates to situational awareness?"

然后——

And-

那家爆雷的对冲基金

The blown-up hedge fund

……然后所罗门问CFO丹，说：‘我觉得不太对吧？’

... and Solomon said to the CFO, Dan, "I don't think so, right?"

丹回答说：‘没错。’

And he said, "No."

当时没有任何异常项目。

There was no unusual items.

那季度真是厉害。

It was just a hell of a quarter.

总之，股价跳空高开，我记得涨了4%，但收盘时跌到了当天最低点。

So anyway, the stock gapped up, I think 4%, and closed on the lows of the day.

听着，这只是一天的事。

Listen, it's one day.

我不想过度解读，但这确实不太妙。

I don't want to make too much of it, but it's not awesome.

这不是你想看到的情况。

It's not what you want to see.

他们问到了高利率是否会抑制AI投资。

They asked about higher interest rates choking off AI spend.

他重申了高盛的观点，即美国的数据中心建设到2032年需要10万亿美元。

He reiterated the Goldman house view is that the US build-out will need $10 trillion through 2032.

他说10年期国债收益率是5%。

He said 5% at 10-year.

他64岁了，大半辈子都见过更高的利率。

At 64 years old, he's seen higher rates most of his life.

“5%的十年期国债利率吓不到我。”

"A 5% 10-year doesn't scare me."

但利率的变动确实会吓到他。

Well, moves do.

对，确实。

Well, yeah.

他说：“我63岁了。

He said, "I'm 63 years old.

5%的十年期国债？”

A 5% 10-year?"

这算什么？

Like, what?

九月份，有些IPO被撤回了，因为估值比预期低了10%到15%。

September, there were some IPOs pulled Because valuations came in 10 to 15% below expectations.

基本上，市场还是开放的，窗口也还开着，但不是每个风投都能在圣诞节收到一辆阿斯顿马丁。

Basically, the market is still open, the window's still open, but not every venture capitalist is getting an Aston Martin for Christmas.

兄弟，三个月后、六个月后，估值不会更好的。

Dude, the marks will not be better in three months, six months from now.

我肯定赌它不会更好。

I would definitely take the under on that.

好。

Okay.

富国银行，没什么意思。

Wells Fargo, not interesting.

谁在乎呢？

Who cares?

好。

Okay.

他们问了查理·沙夫关于消费者的情况，他说挺好的。

Well, they asked Charlie Scharf about the consumer, and he said fine.

他们都说没问题，因为确实没问题。

They all say fine, because it is fine.

因为基本上没问题。

Because it's basically fine.

听着，想想十年期国债收益率上升、两年期收益率上升带来的更有趣的后果之一，就是银行的赚钱能力比人们在一月份时预期的要强。

Listen, when you think about one of the more interesting consequences of the rising 10-year, the rising two-year higher rates, the banks are making more money than what people had thought, as recently as January.

所以摩根大通，我觉得最重要的指引是净利息收入，确认了它高于之前的预期。

So JP Morgan, I thought the most important piece of guidance was on net interest income, confirmed that it's above previous expectations.

他说现在全年预期是1060亿或1070亿美元。

He said 106 or 107 billion is now the full year expectation.

这只是摩根大通存款的净利息收入，这要归功于更高的利率。

That's just net interest income on the money on deposit at JP Morgan, and you could thank higher rates for that.

所以如果你是银行投资者，更高的利率是双刃剑。

So if you're a bank investor, higher rates cut both ways.

它们可能会给某些债务或项目融资带来问题，但也会给银行的贷款业务带来顺风。

They might create a problem with some debt or some funding of projects, but they also create a tailwind on these banks' lending businesses.

好的。

All right.

在这些银行的存款业务上。

On these banks' deposit businesses.

总的来说，银行的盈利表现不错，甚至可以说是非常好。

In conclusion, bank earnings were good to very good.

但至少今天股市的反应很糟糕。

And the reaction of the stock market, at least today, sucked.

所以不太愿意看到这种情况。

So don't like to see that.

我们继续往下聊。

Let's keep it moving.

好的。

All right.

我要引用我们节目的朋友迈克尔·桑托利关于市场内部结构恶化的一段话。

I'm going to quote a friend of the show, Michael Santoli, on deteriorating internals.

我觉得现在看这个节目的人，还有一直看这个节目的人，都明白我们为什么老提这个，因为我们在市场表面之下看到了相当剧烈的变化。

I think a lot of people that are watching the show right now, a lot of the people that have been watching the show, they understand that we keep harping on this because we are seeing a pretty drastic set of circumstances beneath the surface of the market.

我们几乎每天都在创历史新高，然而——

We're pretty much at record highs day by day, and yet-

一天又一天

By day by day

……我们每周都在失去大批股票。

... we're losing big groups of stocks with every passing week.

股票纷纷从上升趋势中跌落，转入下降趋势，从今年夏天的高点回落了两位数。

Stocks are falling out of uptrends, falling into downtrends, retreating double digits off their highs from this summer.

而且似乎几乎没有哪个板块能幸免。

And it seems like almost no group is immune.

如果你不是万亿美元市值的科技公司，你现在可能不在高位。

If you're not a trillion-dollar market cap tech company, you're probably not at a high right now.

所以。

So.

但是，而且，是的，你说得对，我们会聊到很多股票被彻底摧毁的情况，但有趣的是，等权重指数只比历史高点低了4.5%。

But, and also, yes, you're right, and we're going to talk about a lot of stocks getting absolutely destroyed, but it's so interesting that the equal weight is only 4.5% not even off its all-time high.

好的。

Okay.

再说一次，这是等权重的。

And again, that's equally weighted.

接下来是桑托利。

Here's Santoli.

高盛股票衍生品销售联席主管是这么说的，引用一下：“按照我们高盛偏好的衡量标准，市场广度现在已经恶化到自互联网泡沫以来最弱的水平。”

Goldman Sachs co-head of equity derivative sales puts it this way, quote, "By our preferred GS measure, breadth has now deteriorated to its weakest level since the dot-com bubble.

“标题指数继续掩盖着表面之下市场的艰难程度。”

The headline index continues to mask just how difficult this tape has been underneath."

是的，主动型基金经理，别提了。

Yeah, active managers, forget about it.

“现在客户问我们的大问题是，市场狭窄化是否对更广泛的市场是一个警告信号。”

"The big question we're getting from clients now is whether the market narrowness is a warning sign for the broader market.

我越来越觉得不是这样，而且我继续看好标普500指数上涨。

I'm increasingly of the view that it isn't, and continue to favor higher SPX."

摩根士丹利的股票策略师迈克·威尔逊，他一直强调市场广度在扩大，但现在他指出，国债收益率上升已经改变了这个局面。

Morgan Stanley equity strategist Mike Wilson, who has been extolling the broadening performance, notes that rising Treasury yields have now rewritten that script.

但他认为不用担心，因为大多数股票在进入财报季之前已经消化了风险。

But no worries, he argues, because the risk has been taken out of most stocks entering earnings season.

引用——

Quote-

大声说出来。

Say it louder

……“利率上升对普通股票的影响最为明显，但那里的估值下调也已经远远超过了盈利的恶化程度，如果收益率企稳且盈利预期保持不变，那么就有追赶的空间。”

..."Higher rates are being felt most acutely in the average stock, but the de-rating there has also run well ahead of any deterioration in earnings if yields stabilize and revisions hold.

这就为追赶留下了空间。”

That leaves room for a catch-up."

我提这个是为了铺垫一下，因为我们节目的另一位朋友，丹尼斯·奇泽姆，她来过两次，她周末为富达投资处理了这个想法，就是那种“哦，不，参与度在缩小，这意味着牛市最终会结束，因为上涨的股票越来越少”的想法。

And the reason I bring this up is to set the table, because another friend of the show, Denise Chisholm, who we've had on twice, she tackled this idea for Fidelity over the weekend, this idea where, oh, no, the participation is shrinking, which means the bull market is going to eventually come to an end because less stocks are going up.

她其实说，不，恰恰相反。

And she actually says, no, it's the opposite.

如果股市能在参与度收窄的情况下不陷入衰退，数据显示之后会有更大的涨幅。

If the stock market can survive narrowing participation without a recession, the data suggests much bigger gains coming on the heels of that.

我想请你给我解释一下这些图表，或者给听众解释一下。

I'm going to ask you to explain these charts to me or explain them to the audience.

把第一张图放出来。

Put the first one up.

这显示的是表面之下的恶化，对吧？

So this is showing the deterioration beneath the surface, right?

对。

That's right.

什么——

What's-

这相当令人震惊。

This is pretty astounding.

那，你解释一下吧。

So, but explain it.

这是前3000只股票，但她是怎么排名的？

This is the top 3,000 stocks, but what is she ranking them on?

或者说她展示的是什么？

Or what is she showing?

所以，不是看某一个时间点，那样会比这张图更乱，现在这个数据几乎回溯了100年。

So instead of looking at one point in time, which would be even noisier than this chart is, now this goes back 100 years almost.

这是一个振荡指标吗？

This is an oscillator?

如果直接展示高于或低于50日均线的股票比例，那会非常夸张。

So if you were to show the percentage of stocks above or below the 50-day moving average, it would be insane.

所以她通过看过去三个月的读数来平滑数据。

So she smooths it out by looking at the last three-month reading.

好的。

Okay.

按照这个指标来看，我们已经被洗得很彻底了。

And by that metric, we are pretty thoroughly washed out.

而且这真的很不寻常，因为就像我刚才说的，等权重指数距离历史高点只差4.5%，而标普500指数现在就在历史高点附近。

And it's really unusual given that, as I just said, the equal weight is 4.5% off its all-time high, and the S&P is at an all-time high right there.

这很不寻常。

This is unusual.

这就是她的观点。

This is her point.

很多股票其实已经完成了调整，而指数本身却表现得相当稳健，这在牛市中既正常又健康，大家听好了。

Many stocks have already done the work of correcting, while the index itself has held up reasonably well, which is both, now listen up, normal and healthy during a bull market.

在参与度低迷之后，未来回报往往强劲，而且实际上，当参与度极高或者极低时，回报往往最强，就像现在这种情况。

Forward returns are strong following periods of weak participation and, in fact, they tend to be strongest when participation is either extremely high or, in this case, extremely low.

这有多奇怪？

How strange is that?

我觉得——

I feel like-

你猜得到吗？

Would you ever guess that?

是的。

Yes.

我记得大概在2017年写过一篇叫《牛市洗盘》的文章。

I remember writing a post called "The Bullish Washout" in like 2017.

这个话题我们已经聊了十年了。

We've been having this conversation for a decade.

每次你都会看到市场广度恶化。

And every time You get the breadth deterioration.

就像迈克尔和丹尼斯说的，市场已经替你做了很多工作。

To Michael's point and Denise's point, the market has already done a lot of the work for you.

所以我一点也不惊讶，我完全站在她那边。

So I am not surprised, and I'm firmly in her camp.

好的。

Okay.

参与度低通常伴随着更好的未来回报，而不是更差的。

Low participation has typically followed by better, not worse, forward returns.

纵观一个世纪的数据，参与度疲软往往更像是伪装成问题的机会，而不是伪装成机会的问题。

Looking across a century of data, weak participation has more often been an opportunity disguised as a problem than a problem disguised as an opportunity.

所以没有什么是永远有效的，但你在这里看到的是，所有数据，从1926年到现在。

So nothing works all the time, but what you're seeing here, all data, 1926 to present.

这是100年的数据，它清楚地告诉你，低参与度之后市场往往会有强劲的回报。

It's 100 years of data, and it's telling you clearly that low participation has been followed by strong returns for the market.

它并不总是“煤矿里的金丝雀”。

It is not the "canary in the coal mine" all the time.

恰恰相反。

It's the opposite.

看看那个灰色的柱子。

So look at the gray bar.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以我们假设这不是下一次大萧条或下一次重大金融危机要来了。

So let's assume that this is not the next Great Depression or the next great financial crisis coming.

我们假设那不会发生。

Let's assume that that's not about to happen.

当出现这种低参与度的上涨行情、这种低参与度的动态时，回报会更好。

Returns are better when you have this low participation rally, this low participation dynamic.

明显更好。

Significantly better.

看看最左边的灰色线。

Look at the gray line all the way to the left.

她说这里不寻常的是，这次参与度下降并没有伴随市场下跌。

She says what's unusual here is that this drop in participation has not occurred with a market dip.

所以从历史上看，当参与度这么低的时候，市场通常已经经历了至少5%的回调，大约97%的时候是这样——

So historically, when we've seen participation this weak, the market had already experienced a correction of at least 5%, roughly 97% of the time-

因为——

Because-

……所以这才这么奇怪。

... which is why this is so strange

……因为前五大股票，除了亚马逊，都在历史高位。

... because the top five stocks, which are all at all-time highs, except for Amazon.

我觉得亚马逊还在前五。

I think Amazon's still top five.

前五大股票的市值等于后面436只股票的总和。

The top five stocks are equal to the bottom 436.

所以前五大股票市值是25万亿。

So the top five is 25 trillion.

这相当于……

That is equal-

……第67到第500只股票的总和，所以第67到第500只股票可以有不同程度的下跌。

... to stocks 67 through 500, which is why 67 through 500 can have varying degrees of deterioration.

但如果前五大股票接近历史高位，那就是你看到的情况。

But if the top five are near all-time highs, that's what you got.

我们直接跳到富达的最后一张图表，然后先把这个话题放一放。

We're going to skip to the last Fidelity chart, and then we'll put a pin in this.

这是丹尼斯。

This is Denise.

她引述道：“我们经常写关于市场异常现象的文章，其中一种模式反复出现。”

Quote, "We write about market anomalies frequently, and one pattern shows up again and again.

“当市场比‘应该’的水平更强时，它往往会保持这种强势。”

When the market is stronger than it 'should be,' it often stays that way."

给那些在听而不是在看的人解释一下这张图表。

Explain this chart for the people that are listening, not watching.

好的。

All right.

参与度低，在空窗期之后最为看涨。

Weak participation, most bullish after a void.

好，我们来看的是按先前回撤区间划分的12个月正回报概率。

Okay, so we're looking at the probability of a positive 12-month return by prior drawdown regime.

而现在，我们完全处于最左边。

And right now, we are all the way to the left.

我们还没到5%回调的区域。

We're not in 5% correction territory.

我知道这可能是显而易见的。

So I know this is probably intuitive.

就像，对，显然你跌得越多，可能性就越低——

Like, yeah, obviously the more you go down, the lesser likelihood of-

但把话说完。

But finish the thought.

82%的情况下，基于我们目前的位置，未来12个月正回报的概率是82%，这个数据可以追溯到1926年。

82% of the time, the probability of a positive 12-month return based on where we are is 82% going back to 1926.

对我来说，这和大家想的正好相反。

To me, it's the opposite of what everyone thinks.

大家都觉得它更像右边那根柱子。

Everyone thinks it looks more like that bar on the right.

不，不是这样的。

Nope, not true.

确实不是这样。

And it's not true.

好的。

All right.

我还带了两张图表。

I have two more charts that I brought.

一张，这个有点跑题了。

One, this is sort of a non-sequitur.

我只是觉得Todd Sohn的这个特别有意思。

I just thought this was super interesting from Todd Sohn.

我从来没见过这样展示的图表。

I've never seen a chart presented this way.

这其实是另一种方式来说明，很多之前有效的主题性投资已经失效了。

So this is another way of just showing that we've lost a lot of the thematic things that were working.

比如DRAM，现在回撤了30%。

DRAM, for example, is in a 30% drawdown.

但Todd这张图特别有意思的地方在于，它把52周高点的日期和回撤幅度对应起来了。

But what's super interesting about this chart from Todd is that this has plotted the date of the 52-week high against the drawdown.

比如说——

So for example-

DRAM在2026年6月见顶，现在回撤了30%。

... DRAM peaked in June of 2026 at it's in a 30% drawdown.

DRNZ，我都不太清楚这是什么，我猜是无人机相关的吧，它在2026年1月见顶。

DRNZ, which I don't even know what, I guess that's drones, that peaked in January 2026.

这张图是不是特别酷？

How cool is this chart?

所以它是在显示，那些最大的赢家在见顶之前都会经历系统性的回撤？

So it's showing that there's a systematic drawdown for the biggest winners up until their peak?

那投资者现在看这个，应该怎么理解呢？

I guess, what's the takeaway for investors right now looking at this?

我不知道有什么大的启示——嗯，启示就是这个。

I don't know that there's a huge take-- Well, the takeaway is this.

标普500创下新高，但行业和主题领域的许多角落却被抛在了后面。

The S&P 500 is at a new high, yet many corners of the sector and thematic world are being left behind.

启示就是我们一直在讨论的内容。

The takeaway is what we've been talking about.

这些是主题ETF。

These are theme ETFs.

对。

Yes.

比如太阳能、DRAM。

Like Solar, DRAM.

PHOTON是什么？

What's PHOTON?

哦，好的。

Oh, okay.

大概是光子学吧。

Photonics, I guess.

总之——

Anyway-

……就是一张很棒的图表。

... just a great chart.

最后，Josh，上周你提到十月份可能会出现VIX飙升，我们确实有可能看到这种情况。

And then lastly, Josh, last week you were talking about that we're going to have a VIX spike in October, and we very well might.

而且很奇怪的是，这些波动竟然相互抵消了。

It's also very bizarre that these moves are canceling each other out.

所以前五名和后面的436名之类的相比。

So the top five versus the bottom 436 or whatever it is.

股市本身，单看指数层面，一直都很平静。

The stock market itself, just at the index level, it's been very quiet.

所以——

So-

彭博社的杰西卡·门顿说，标普500指数在截至周二之前的53个交易日里都没有出现过1%的跌幅，这是自2020年1月以来最长的一次。

... Jessica Menton from Bloomberg says, "The S&P hasn't posted a 1% decline in 53 trading sessions through Tuesday, marking the longest such stretch since January 2020."

嗯哼。

Huh.

我觉得这种情况不会持续太久了。

I don't think that's going to continue for much longer.

上周在节目里我说过，我对十月份的基本判断是会出现一次震荡洗盘。

On the show last week, I said my base case for October is we're going to get a shakeout.

而且谁知道呢，今天银行的财报以及市场对它们的平淡反应，可能就是我说的那种我们必须经历的情况的一部分。

And for all I know, the bank earnings today and the blah reaction to them is part of what I think we're going to have to live through.

而且——

And-

好吧，这显然不可能永远持续下去。

Well, this can't last forever, obviously.

我是说，这太离谱了。

I mean, it's ridiculous.

1%的跌幅在——

A 1% decline in-

我觉得财报——

I think earnings-

……53个交易日？

... 53 sessions?

这次财报引发的抛售会是个借口。

Earnings-driven selloffs are going to be the excuse this time.

不知道你今天看新闻了没。

I don't know if you saw the news today.

也门的首都真的着火了。

The capital of Yemen is literally on fire.

好吧。

Okay.

看来油价短期内不会回落了。

It looks like oil prices aren't backing off anytime soon, I guess.

我对军事行动没有看法，但能源价格的问题看起来短期内不会结束。

I don't have an opinion on the military action, but it doesn't seem like there's an end in sight to what's happening with energy prices.

好的。

Okay.

在这种背景下，我觉得十月可能会有一个意外。

And against that backdrop, I think there's an October surprise coming.

所以这就是我的看法。

So that's where I'm at

我有个话题标题，叫“消费股被重创”。

I had this topic title, consumer stocks smoked.

这个话题我们已经聊了很久了。

We've been talking about this for a while.

乔发了条推文说：“如果你能想到一个美国知名消费品牌，它的股价走势图大概都是这样的。”

So Joe tweeted, "If you can think of a popular consumer brand in America, its chart probably looks like this."

而这张图就是百事可乐的走势图。

And this is a chart of Pepsi.

对，他说得没错。

And yeah, he's right.

而且最让人惊讶的是——

And what's so-

这个见解太棒了。

That's such a great insight.

他这么一说出来——

Once he says that out loud-

对，乔真是大神。

Yeah, Joe's the GOAT

……他说得太准了。

... he's dead on.

但有趣的是，这不仅仅是美国的日常消费品。

But what's so interesting is it's not just like staples in America.

请把图表关掉。

Chart off, please.

路易威登，也就是LVMH，已经跌了57%。

Louis Vuitton, like LVMH is in a 57% drawdown.

普拉达，我不知道这个品牌现在还火不火，反正跌了大概45%。

Prada, I don't know if that brand is still relevant or not, it's in like a 45% drawdown.

很多消费类股票都跌得很惨。

There's a lot of consumer stocks getting smoked.

所以我让团队做了这个图表。

So I had the boys whip this up.

请把图表调出来。

Chart on, please.

我看了市值超过20亿美元、在美国上市的股票，它们从52周高点跌了30%。

So I looked at the stocks that have a market cap over $2 billion, US listed, that are down 30% from their 52 week high.

不是历史高点，只是52周高点。

Not all-time high, just 52 week high.

还有跌了50%的。

And 50%.

如果你从52周高点跌了50%，那你就是被市场狠狠教训了。

If you're down 50% from a 52 week high, you are getting smoked.

有146只科技股跌了30%，48只跌了50%。

And 146 technology stocks are down 30%, 48 are down 50%.

但你看，我觉得消费类——

But look at, I guess consumer-

周期性股票

Cyclicals

……消费周期性股票。

... consumer cyclicals.

我本来应该做的，是按每个篮子里的股票数量来调整这个数据。

What I should have done, I should have adjusted this for the number of stocks in each basket.

比如有20只——

So like there's 20-

你知道我会怎么做吗？

You know what I would do here?

我会把每个板块里跌得最惨的那只股票的代码标出来，就像——

I would put the ticker symbol of the hardest hit one from each sector as like a-

好的，那么——

All right, so-

然后那个跌幅。

And then that decline.

那看下一张图。

So next chart.

这些是消费类股票。

So these are consumer stocks.

不是全部，只是选了几只。

Not all of them, just a select few.

有Flutter，也就是FanDuel，跌了70%。

And it's Flutter, which is FanDuel, down 70%.

天哪。

Jesus.