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是的。
Yep.
我们回来了。
We're back.
我觉得我们有三周没一起做这个节目了。
I haven't I haven't done this show with you in, I think it's three weeks.
因为上周我们在做未来验证。
Because, last week, we were in future proof.
上上周我背受伤了，然后你请了短小子、马特和肖恩来代班。
The week before, I was with a back injury, and you had short kid and Matt and, Sean.
然后……
And then...
所以再往前一周，那是八月的事了。
So the week before that, so it's August.
那之后真的什么都没发生吗？
And nothing nothing's happened since then, really?
什么都没发生吗？
Nothing at all?
什么都发生了。
Everything has happened.
好吧。
Alright.
嗯，我……
Well, I'm...
我想念这个节目。
I miss the show.
这就像我每周最期待的事情之一。
This is, like, one of the highlights of my week every week.
所以，各位，我们正在预录。
So, guys, we're pretaping.
现在是周二早上。
It's Tuesday morning.
我今天晚些时候要去迈阿密大学办个活动，所以没法直播。
I am, doing a thing at the University of Miami later today, which, prevents me from being live.
不过，在直播间里的各位，谢谢你们来看首播，我们每周都很感激你们这么做。
But those of you in the live chat, thank you for coming for the premiere, and, we we appreciate seeing you guys do that every week.
但我们现在是直播的。
But we're live.
你感觉怎么样？
How are you feeling?
就是说，我们在直播。
Like, we're live.
对，你和我一起在直播。
Like, you and I are live together.
挺好的。
It's good.
真的。
Literally.
我们做到了。
We're doing it.
感觉很好。
Feel great.
不过，说实话，感觉不太好。
Well, actually, don't feel great.
昨晚看到杰基的膝盖扭到一边，我真的很不喜欢。
I did not like seeing Jackie's knee go sideways last night.
那太糟糕了。
That sucked.
但听起来我们躲过了一场大灾难。
But it sounds like we avoided catastrophe.
所以……
So...
你知道吗？
And you know what?
谁在乎呢？
Who cares?
尼克斯是冠军。
The Knicks are champions.
我还兴奋着呢。
I'm still running high.
我不在乎。
I don't care.
我正想说我已经转向篮球了。
I was gonna say I'm already pivoting to basketball.
没关系。
It's okay.
我的……
My...
我昨晚给巨人队的朋友发了条短信。
I I sent my Giants friends a text, last night.
我可能接下来两三个星期都不看了，所以别费劲了。
I I might not be watching for the next two or three weeks, so don't even bother.
杰米斯那场比赛真是看不下去。
Jameis was a was a tough watch.
我觉得我再也看不了那场比赛了。
I don't think I can watch that again.
好吧。
Alright.
这就是你的想法。
This is what are your thoughts.
第一次收看的朋友们，这里是美国最受欢迎的投资和市场直播节目。
Those For of you tuning in for the first time, this is America's favorite investing and markets livestream.
我们尽量报道最大的新闻，或者那些我们认为最有看点的故事。
We try to get to the biggest stories or the ones that we feel we have the most interesting take on.
我们涵盖股票、债券、经济、风险投资和科技。
We cover stocks, bonds, the economy, venture capital, technology.
凡是跟投资组合沾边的，我们都会发表意见。
Anything that touches, the investment portfolio, we're gonna we're gonna chime in on.
这就是我们干的事。
That's what we do.
感谢大家无论在哪里收听和观看。
We appreciate all of you guys for listening wherever you are and watching.
我们这期节目有赞助商。
We have a sponsor for the show.
迈克尔，告诉我们赞助商是谁。
Michael, tell us who's sponsoring.
你今天有什么想法？
What are your thoughts today?
本期播客由DBMF赞助，它是全球最大的管理期货ETF。
This podcast is brought to you by DBMF, the world's largest managed futures ETF.
是不是觉得世界变化太快了？
Feel like the world's changing fast?
想象一下，一种策略，在别人都按兵不动时，它却能灵活应对。
Imagine a strategy built to move when everyone else is standing still.
随着趋势变化，在全球市场做多或做空，DBMF就是为与众不同而生的。
Going long or short across global markets as the trend shift, DBMF is made to move differently.
一个低成本ETF，即使股票和债券同涨同跌，也能提供真正的分散投资。
A single low cost ETF offering genuine diversification even when stocks and bonds move together.
想了解为什么DBMF的流动性强、相关性低的期货策略，可能正是你的另类资产配置所缺少的，请访问www.dbmf.com/wayt。
Discover why DBMF's liquid uncorrelated managed future strategy could be what your alts allocation is missing at www.dbmf.com/wayt.
DBMF，与众不同，灵活应对。
DBMF make move differently.
在投资前，请仔细考虑iMGP DBi管理期货策略ETF的投资目标、风险、费用和开支。
The iMGP DBi managed future strategy ETF's investment objectives, risk charges, and expenses must be considered carefully before investing.
法定招股说明书和摘要招股说明书包含这些以及其他关于该投资公司的重要信息。
The statutory and summary prospectuses contain this and other important information about this investment company.
您可以通过访问www.imgp.com获取这些信息。
It may be obtained by visiting www.imgp.com.
该基金由ALPS Distributors Inc.分销。
The fund is distributed by ALPS Distributors Inc.
截至2026年7月31日，DBMF是全球最大的管理期货ETF，管理资产达41.6亿美元。
DBMF is the world's largest managed futures ETF as of 07/31/2026 with $4,160,000,000 in assets under management.
那是什么动物？
What what kind of animal is that?
那是树懒。
That's a sloth.
那是树懒。
That's a sloth.
好的。
Okay.
你知道吗，我以前是个大
You know, I was a big
与众不同。
moves different.
我小时候特别痴迷动物。
I was a big animal child.
我六岁的时候就很喜欢泡在图书馆里。
I I enjoyed spending time in the library as a six year old.
关于动物的书，我怎么看都看不够。
Couldn't get enough books about animals.
你那时候对动物特别着迷？
You were big on animals?
是的。
Yes.
好的。
Alright.
那好，我给你看看这个角马。
Well, let me show you this wildebeest.
Meta终于在AI领域推出了一个大家想要的东西，而且它真的引发了一波令人难以置信的科技股大涨。
Meta finally launched something that people want in the AI arena, and it has literally ignited an incredible rally for lots and lots of tech stocks.
而且，我真的不知道怎么说，兄弟。
And I I don't know, man.
我觉得这挺酷的。
I think this is pretty cool.
而且这里有一些重要的收获。
And there are some there are some big takeaways here.
我要分享我的看法，也想听听你的。
I'm gonna share mine, and I wanna hear yours.
但咱们先给大家介绍一下背景。
But let's just set this up for people.
9月8号，我记得是个星期五，Meta推出了Muse，并且立刻把它整合到了WhatsApp里，还铺到了Instagram和Facebook上，让很多很多人看到了它。
On September 8, which I think was a Friday, Meta launched Muse and immediately incorporated it into WhatsApp, put it all over, you know, Instagram and all over Facebook and got it in front of a lot a lot of people.
他们还在NFL比赛上打广告，这可不便宜。
They're advertising it on NFL games, which is not cheap.
感觉他们是全力以赴了。
Like, they're going all in on this thing.
而且我觉得这可能是他们公司自推出Reels以来最重要的一次事件，当时他们就说，不。
And I think it could be the most important company event since they came out with reels where they said, nope.
TikTok不会赢的。
TikTok is not gonna win.
我们会赢。
We're gonna win.
这就是我们的产品。
Here's our product.
所以九月初开盘时股价是每股578美元。
So the stock was $578 a share to open up September.
现在大概涨到了747.50美元。
It's now, like, $747.50.
也就是说，这三周里每股涨了163美元。
So that is a $163 per share in all three weeks.
本月至今已经上涨了28%。
It's up 28% month to date.
这基本上就是Meta在三个星期内市值增加了大约四十万四千一百五十亿美元。
This is basically Meta adding between $404,150,000,000,000 dollars in market cap in three weeks.
这是公司历史上单月市值增长最大的一次。
This is the single biggest or or the biggest single month value creation in the company's history.
为了让你对这个数字有个概念，增加四千五百亿美元相当于增加一个好市多，它的市值是4300亿。
And just to put that number in perspective, adding $450,000,000,000 is like adding a Costco, which is $4.30.
宝洁，四千亿美元。
Procter and Gamble, 400,000,000,000.
强生，四千亿。
J and J, 400.
家得宝、奈飞，三千七百五十三亿八千万。
Home Depot, Netflix, 375380.
所以这对Meta来说是一个巨大的命运转折。
So this is an enormous, swing in the fortunes of Meta.
我想让你看看这个故事变化有多快。
I wanna show you how fast the story has changed.
把这张十八个月的图表放出来。
Put up this, eighteen month chart.
基本上，从去年这个时候股价见顶以来，就一直是一路走低，高点也越来越低。
So basically, ever since this time last year when the share price peaked, it's been a series of lower lows and lower highs.
Meta一直处于这种大幅下跌的趋势中，而且大家也在担心，你知道的，他们在资本支出上是不是花得太多了？
Meta had been locked in this substantial downtrend, and it got caught up in this, you know, are they spending too much in in CapEx?
没有回报。
There's no ROI.
这会不会是元宇宙的第二部？
Is this the metaverse part two?
我不是在嘲笑这些评论，因为它们是有根据的。
And I'm not mocking those comments because they were well founded.
但更大的要点是……
But the the bigger take...
哦，这是元宇宙的七巨头。
Oh, here's metaverse's mag seven.
看看这变化有多快。
Look how fast this changed.
我觉得是……
I think it was...
我觉得和特斯拉一样，它们俩是今年夏天表现最差的七巨头股票，现在却跑赢了。
I think with Tesla, they were the two worst mag seven stocks, this summer, and now it's outperforming.
而且这几乎是转眼间就发生了。
And that happened, like, almost overnight.
所以在我们讨论Muse是什么之前，你对投资者能从整个故事变化如此之快中学到什么有什么看法？
So before we even get into what Muse is, what what are your thoughts on, like, what investors can take away from the rapidity with which this entire story has changed?
对我来说，最大的启示是，一个市值1.4万亿美元的股票，在短短三周内就逼近2万亿美元，这显示了整个AI交易构建的结果范围有多广。
To me, the biggest takeaway for a $1,400,000,000,000 stock knocking on the door of 2,000,000,000,000 in a three week period shows how wide the range of outcomes for this entire AI trade build out.
因为我们夏天就在讨论这个。
Because we were discussing this over the summer.
这股票就是个垃圾。
The stock is a piece of shit.
从技术面看，这股票已经完全崩了。
Technically, it looks completely busted.
它现在处于一个不上不下的尴尬位置。
It's in no man's land.
电话会议之后，他们也没让任何人对公司方向感到更安心。
After the conference call, they're not making anybody feel any better about the direction of the company.
看起来就是烧钱太多，市盈率下降也是合理的。
It just seems like a lot of spend, and it seems like, the declining PE is warranted.
所以当时的情况就是投资者真的都放弃了。
So you had the setup of really investors throwing in the towel.
我记得Meta的远期市盈率只有16或17倍，听起来简直不可思议。
I think Meta was trading at 16 or 17 times forward earnings, which sounds insane.
但你猜怎么着？
But guess what?
我当时也是这么想的，大家也都这么想。
I had that pitch, so did everybody.
而且我当时在16倍市盈率的时候也不想要它，因为那些担忧，就像你说的，看起来完全合理。
And I didn't want it at 16 times earnings because the fears to your point seemed completely reasonable.
而且我也没被估值吸引，因为还有那个悬而未决的问题。
And I wasn't I wasn't enticed by evaluation because of the overhang.
而现在，这个可能改变游戏规则的应用要上架应用商店了。
And here we have this game changing potentially app to hit the app store.
我觉得它一上线就排第一，或者至少在前五，看起来真是个颠覆性的东西。
And I think it's been number one since it popped on or in the top five, and it looks like a game changer.
我不知道这能带来多少百亿美元的新潜在收入，但没人知道。
And I don't know how many tens of billions of dollars of new potential revenue this is, but nobody does.
这就是为什么股价会这样重新估值。
And that's why the stock rerates like that.
嗯，这确实是个关键点。
Well, that's that's a really key point.
我不知道在这之后盈利预期会怎么变化。
I don't know what earnings estimates are doing in the wake of this.
我知道有些分析师在提高他们的预期，因为他们知道Meta在变现产品方面有多厉害。
I know some analysts are taking their numbers up because they know how good Meta is at monetizing products.
这可能是它最擅长的事情。
Like, that might be the thing that it is the best in the world at.
不只是他们推出产品。
It's not just that they launch products.
而是他们真的很会赚钱。
It's that they're really good at making money.
所以我看到一些盈利预期在上升，但市盈率也在上升。
And so I'm seeing some earnings estimates go up, but the multiples are going up.
这周我看到一位分析师把他的预测从20倍市盈率调到了25倍。
I saw one analyst this week go from 20 to 25 times earnings in his in his forecast.
这听起来可能不多，
And that's...
但基本上就是说，这个单一产品让投资者愿意支付的市盈率提高了20%。
That may not sound like a lot, but we're basically saying this one product is a 20% bump on the multiple of earnings that people are willing to pay.
而且，你知道，这里面有些是炒作，但有些是，哦，这给业务带来了新的增长点，之前根本没人想到，也没人看好。
And, you know, some of that is narrative, but some of that is like, oh, here's a new leg to the business that nobody even thought was coming or nobody was bullish on.
现在突然之间，一切都得改变。
And now all of a sudden, everything has to change.
这……
That...
对我来说，这是个重要的启示。
To me, that's a big takeaway.
另一个问题是，我们所有人，包括我自己，什么时候才能不再跟马克·扎克伯格对着干？
The other one for me is when when are we, all of us, the colloquial we, when are we gonna stop betting against Mark Zuckerberg?
就像……
Like, what...
我们难道永远学不会教训吗？
Do we ever learn our lesson?
有多少次大家都说，好吧，这次他真搞砸了。
How many times has the consensus said, well, he's really done it this time.
现在他麻烦大了。
Now he's in trouble.
有多少次……
How many...
你能随口说出多少次？
Like, how many can you think of offhand?
元宇宙转型就是最明显、最典型的例子。
The metaverse pivot being, like, the most obvious gigantic example.
但我还记得公司刚上市那会儿。
But I remember when the company was coming public.
他们连移动应用都没有。
They have no mobile app.
那是个桌面网站，在移动时代还靠桌面网站。
It's a it's a desktop, it's a desktop website in a mobile world.
他们彻底完蛋了。
They're totally fucked.
他们没法重新发明。
They can't reinvent.
废话连篇。
Blah blah blah blah blah.
哦，现在他们花十亿美元买下Instagram。
Oh, now they're paying a billion dollars for Instagram.
我喜欢这个。
I love this.
我，我喜欢……我们什么时候才能停止跟这个游戏对着干？
I I love When are we gonna stop betting against this game?
永远不会。
Never.
永远不会。
Never.
我喜欢这个说法，因为你说得对。
I love the narrative because you're right.
扎克伯格从见到彼得·蒂尔那天起，每一步都表现得非常出色，直到今天。
Zuckerberg has outperformed literally every step of the way from the time he met Peter Thiel until today.
但我们永远不会停止唱衰他，因为没有哪家公司能得到怀疑的豁免权，因为股市是个冷酷的地方。
But we are never going to stop betting against him because no company no company gets the benefit of the doubt because the stock market is a cold place.
你过去做了什么并不重要。
And it doesn't matter what you've done.
重要的是你现在在做什么，以及投资者期望你做什么。
It matters what you're doing and what investors expect you to do.
我有点不认同“我们什么时候停止唱衰他们”这个前提，因为六个月前，他们处境很糟糕。
And I I sort of reject the premise of when we're gonna stop betting against them because six months ago, they were in a shitty place.
如果我们当时知道会有这样的消息，我们肯定会很兴奋，但我们不知道，因为我们不可能知道。
And had we known that news was coming out, then we would have been excited, but we didn't because we couldn't have.
他们看起来像是在往左走。
And they looked like they were going left.
现在他们往右走了，所有人都重新上船了。
Now they're going right, and everybody's back in the boat.
我特别喜欢这一点。
And I love it.
这就是股市这么好玩的原因。
This is what makes the stock market so much fun.
另一个关键点对我来说是，如果我是Instinct的投资者，我肯定不会高兴，他们以25亿美元的估值筹集了3.5亿美元。
Another key takeaway for me is, I would not be psyched to be an investor in Instinct, which raised $350,000,000 at a $2,500,000,000 valuation.
那是一家私人公司。
Now that's a private company.
这显然不是我们的领域，但这行确实很难。
It's obviously not our game, but this shit is hard.
变化太快了。
It's changing really fast.
所以，那笔在八月份刚投出去的钱，那些投资者现在肯定很紧张。
So the the check that was just written back in August for that company, those investors must be sweating.
不是吗？
No?
而且OpenAI有个个人助理，第四季度就要推出了，到时候立刻会有十亿人来试用。
And OpenAI has a personal assistant that's gonna drop in the fourth quarter, and that'll instantly have a billion people testing it out.
我觉得这个产品其实没什么护城河，因为切换成本是零。
And I feel like this this particular product has no moat because the switching costs are zero.
它全都跟你的技术绑在一起。
It's all plugged into your tech.
哦，它认识我。
Oh, it knows me.
那又怎么样？
Who cares?
它知道你的Gmail。
It knows your Gmail.
它知道你的……
It knows your...
就是说，这很容易。
Like, that's that's very easy.
那是个商品化的东西。
That's a commodity.
而且这个竞争对手资金极其雄厚，不怕一直投入直到做出市场上最好的产品，也不怕在自己的平台之外花钱做营销和广告。
And this is a competitor with extremely deep pockets that is not afraid to keep investing until they have the best product on the market and not afraid to spend on marketing and advertising off their own platform.
比如，看Facebook在周一橄榄球之夜买广告，
Like, watching Facebook buy ads during an...
就知道这次发布对他们有多重要。
During a Monday night football game tells you how important this launch is to them.
他们不是只在Facebook里放几个横幅广告然后碰运气。
This is not them just dropping banner ads inside of Facebook and hoping for the best.
他们是在花大钱来讲这个故事。
Like, they're spending big money to tell this story.
另一个很有意思的进展是，亚马逊把Muse给切断了。
Another very interesting development is that Amazon cut off Muse.
嗯，它是跟Spotify捆绑在一起的。
Well, it's bundled with Spotify.
所以他们和Spotify有合作，我也不太清楚。
So they have a Spotify partnership, and I don't know.
也许之前有谈过和亚马逊的合作，但他们……
Maybe there was talk of an Amazon partnership, and they...
没能达成协议。
It couldn't come to terms.
我不太了解背后的政治因素，但我觉得人们可能会把这看作一个负面消息，然后突然之间，他们又和亚马逊达成协议，股价可能上涨10%。
I don't I don't really know the political side of it, but something tells me, like, people might look at that as a negative, and then all of a sudden, they'll make a deal with Amazon, and the stock could go up to 10%.
另外……
Another...
不过从这个公告中还能得出一个结论，那就是……
But just another takeaway from this announcement is this is...
到处都会发生激烈的争斗。
There there are gonna be knife fights everywhere.
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
因为这就是抢地盘。
Because it's because it's the land grab.
所以当你说抢地盘的时候，人们有时候甚至不知道那是什么意思，或者有一部很棒的电影，汤姆·克鲁斯和妮可·基德曼演的，叫《大地雄心》。
So when when when you say land grab, people sometimes don't even know what that means or or there's a great Tom Cruise Nicole Kidman movie called Far and Away.
我在电影院看过。
Saw it in theaters.
所以他们俩都是爱尔兰移民。
So they're both Irish immigrants.
他不是拳击手吗？
Wasn't he a boxer?
他打拳击？
He was boxing?
他就像那种赤手空拳的，你知道，以前那种打法。
He was like bare knuckle, like, you know, what they used to do.
举起拳头来。
Put up your dukes.
举起
Put up
你的拳头。
your dukes.
总之，他们参加了一场土地争夺赛，在……
Anyway, they take part in a land grab at the the...
抱歉剧透了。
Sorry to ruin the movie.
电影的高潮是他们离开波士顿，像很多苏格兰-爱尔兰移民一样向西走。
The climax of the movie is they're leaving Boston, and they're going they're going west like a lot of the Scots Irish immigrants did.
兄弟，这电影你看了多少遍啊？
Bro, how many times have you seen this movie?
没看多少遍，但他们有一根木桩，他们要把它插在地上。
Not a lot, but they have a stake, and they're gonna put a stake in the ground.
这就是所谓的“占地立桩”。
That's literally stake your claim.
就像他们……
Like, they...
这是一场比赛。
It's a race.
他们必须尽可能远离其他人，然后把木桩插进地里，来宣告……
They have to get as far away as possible from everyone else and jam a stake in the ground to to call...
比如，这是我们未来的农场或牧场之类的。
Like, this is our future farm or ranch or whatever it is.
就像，这就是……
Like, that's what's...
这就是我们现在所处的阶段。
That's the the stage that we're at now.
这个个人化的、智能体AI助手最终会归某人所有，而马克想赢。
Someone is gonna own this personal, agentic AI assistant, and Mark wants to win.
他赢不了大语言模型之战。
He ain't gonna win the LLM wars.
如果这个能成，他不一定会输，但他不会去打ChatGPT那场仗。
He's not gonna necessarily lose if this works, but, like, he's not gonna do the chat GPT war.
这是另一回事。
This is something else.
这个东西你可以跟它说话，它会帮你执行任务。
This is something that you talk to, and it carries out tasks for you.
而且特别厉害。
And it's sick.
问问题。
Ask questions.
确实厉害。
It's sick.
你试过了吗？
Have you tried it?
我还没用过呢。
So I haven't used it yet.
我还没用过，但我看到了它的用途，而且我……
I haven't used it yet, but I'm seeing the use cases, and I...
我一直在用Instinct。
I've been using instinct.
所以我明白。
So I get it.
同样的东西，而且它非常强大。
The same thing, and it is incredibly powerful.
好的。
Alright.
Muse昨天成了苹果iOS应用商店和谷歌Play商店上排名第一的免费应用。
Muse became the number one free app on, the Apple iOS App Store and the Google Play Store as of yesterday.
它只对18岁及以上的人开放。
It is available for people 18 years and older.
那它是不是……
So does it...
就是说，别管那些游戏下载了。
Like, forget all the games downloads.
在成人应用里，它排第一。
For adults, it's number one.
前六天就被下载了九十万两千次。
It was downloaded 902,000 times in the first six days.
多少次？
How many times?
前六天九十万两千次。
902,000 times in the first six days.
好的。
Alright.
那到下星期，估计就有一千万了。
That's gonna be, like, 10,000,000 by next week.
我是说，这简直就是瞬间
Well, I'm saying, like, it's an instant
爆款。
Hit.
Meta 推出了 Meta AI 应用，但只有 773 次下载，而且功能跟这个完全不一样。
Meta launched the Meta AI app and only did 773 downloads for that, And the capabilities were not the same as this.
差别非常大。
It was very different.
这是 Evercore ISI 的观点。
Here's Evercore ISI.
Meta 的 Muse 成了爆款。
Meta has a hit on its hands with Muse.
这非常直观地证明了产品创新成功，也说明 Meta 在 AI 上投入的 2000 亿美元没有白费。
It amounts to a very tangible sign of successful product innovation is evidence that Meta's $200,000,000,000 in AI investments have not been in vain.
这是 Mahaney 和他的团队说的。
This is Mahaney and his team.
用户趋势表明，这可能会成为 Meta 一个非常惊人的新流量和参与度驱动力，并带来大量新的变现机会，比如广告、订阅和交易收入分成。
The user trend suggests, quote, a potentially very dramatic new driver of usage and engagement for Meta that could bring, quote, substantial new monetization opportunities, advertising subscriptions, transaction revenue share.
这太厉害了。
It's huge.
所以这真的是件大事。
So it's it's a really big deal.
现在这点很重要。
Now this is important.
虽然这个说法来得快，但也可能去得快。
As quickly as the narrative became this, it could fade.
我觉得不会。
I don't think it will.
我不会打赌它会消失，但我们也见过这种情况。
I wouldn't bet that it will, but we have seen this before also.
就是某个应用突然火起来……
Where an app takes...
你知道，一下子爆红，然后大家就都腻了。
You know, catches fire, and then everyone's over
真的很快。
really quickly.
这种情况我们见过很多次了。
We've seen this a lot.
这确实引发了CPU股票的一波非常有趣的上涨。
It did ignite a very interesting rally in CPU stocks.
你看到这些了吗？
Did you did you see any of this stuff?
我看到了。
I I did.
把我的图表给我。
Give me my chart.
所以我不太清楚。
So I don't know.
这之间有什么联系？
What's the connection?
我马上解释。
I'll explain in a second.
蓝线是超威半导体，也就是AMD，最近涨得特别猛。
The blue line is advanced micro devices, AMD, which just went absolutely wild.
我们一会儿再详细说。
We'll talk about more in a second.
紫色是ARM控股。
Purple is ARM Holdings.
绿色是高通，橙色是……
Green is Qualcomm, and orange is...
你可能看不出涨幅有多大，但是……
You can't really see the magnitude the rally, but
我觉得是昨天吧。
in I think yesterday.
那是个大事，真的是大事。
It was a big it was a big deal.
在这个图表上看不出来有多大的事，但确实是个大事。
Doesn't look like a big deal on the scale of this chart, but it was.
现在来看看发生了什么。
Here's what's going on.
Muse 的技术架构非常特殊，它重新调整了人们对 AI 芯片交易的思考方式。
Muse has a very unusual technical architecture that reshuffles the way people are thinking about the AI chip trade.
大多数 AI 应用显然都严重依赖 GPU，而 NVIDIA 在这个领域占据主导地位。
Most AI apps obviously lean heavily on GPUs, which is what NVIDIA is is dominant in.
Muse 为每个用户保留了一个安全的虚拟机。
Muse is keeping a secure virtual machine for every user.
明白吗？
Okay?
这个机器处理浏览器会话、所谓的工具调用（你提示某个东西，它必须调用特定工具）、沙箱，以及 AI 工作负载中 CPU 执行的所有类型的事情。
And that machine is handling browser sessions, what's called tool calls where you prompt something and it has to call on a specific tool, sandboxing, all types of things that CPUs carry out in an AI workload.
我觉得值得注意的是，我提到了 ARM Holdings 和高通，这两家公司都不是在制造传统 CPU，但它们都非常押注并投资于设备端推理，这意味着它们为手机、移动电话制造特定芯片，让人们可以直接在设备上进行推理工作，而不是将其路由到 AI 数据中心。
I think what's notable is that I mentioned ARM Holdings and Qualcomm, neither of which are making traditional CPUs, but they are very heavily betting on and invested in inference on device, which means they make specific chips for cell phones, for mobile phones, where people can do that inference work directly on the device rather than routing it to the AI data center.
所以这就是为什么那些股票……
So that's why those stocks...
高通涨了9%，ARM控股涨了17%。
Qualcomm went up 9%, ARM Holdings went up 17%.
所以这些是专利故事、芯片故事，但核心思想是一样的：这是绕过GPU层的智能体工作流，在没有我们通常看到的那种依赖的情况下执行这些智能体任务。
So those are like patent stories, chip stories, but it's the same idea is that this is agentic workflow that is going around the GPU layer and carrying out these agentic tasks without what we typically see.
让我快速调出AMD的图表。
Let me put up this AMD chart real quick.
迈克尔，你知道吗，AMD现在已经加入了万亿美元市值俱乐部？
Did you know, Michael, AMD has now joined the trillion dollar market cap club?
我还真不知道。
I sure did not.
哇。
Wow.
难以置信。
Unbelievable.
而且几乎是英特尔的两倍，英特尔是6150亿美元。
And is almost twice the size of Intel, which is 615,000,000,000.
哇。
Wow.
所以AMD刚刚超过一万亿。
So AMD is just above a trillion.
你怎么看？
What are your thoughts?
我已经无话可说了。
I have no more thoughts.
把图表关了吧。
Chart off.
你刚刚把整根骨头都吃掉了。
You just ate you just ate the whole bone.
你把整根排骨都吃了，然后把骨头扔给我。
Just ate the entire rib and then threw me the bone.
你全吃完了。
You ate it all.
你把肉都吃光了。
You ate all the meat.
我没什么好补充的了。
I have nothing else to add.
你做得很好。
You did you did great.
非常非常好吃。
Very, very tasty.
你觉得这波Meta的涨势这么猛，能持续到年底吗？
Do you think, do you think this meta rally, given how powerful it's been, has legs into year end?
我觉得能。
I do.
我也觉得能。
I do.
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
为什么？
Why.
兄弟，这可是个超级大的突破。
Dude, this is a this is a monster breakout.
这简直是改变游戏规则的东西。
This is a game changer.
这势头很猛。
This has legs.
新的巨头要来了。
New monster are coming.
这不就是那种股票吗，大家以后会想，天哪，他们发布Muse的时候我怎么没买？
Isn't this the type of stock where people are gonna be like, I can't believe I didn't buy it when they put out Muse?
完全没错。
Totally.
它涨了吗？我已经觉得，兄弟，我已经觉得自己像个傻瓜了。
Has it gone up I I already feel like and Dude, I already feel like an asshole.
不过，涨了五个点。
Five points, though.
你能在这儿买吗？
Can you buy it here?
嗯，这恰恰说明它还会涨得更高。
Well, that's how you know it's going higher.
因为太难买了。
Because it's so hard.
我觉得会有一阵盘整期，但我不认为这就结束了。
I I think we'll get a consolidation period, but I don't think it's over.
有道理。
Reasonable.
太大了。
It's too big.
这事儿太大了。
It's too big of a deal.
不。
No.
想想我给你看的那张图，高点越来越低。
Think about what that that chart I showed you with the lower highs.
整个情况就是，没有投资回报率。
The whole thing was like, there's no ROI.
但其实有，就是短视频变现，那是AI。
Meanwhile, there was in the form of reels monetization, which is AI.
确实有一些变现，但现在没人这么说了。
There was some monetization, but now it's like no one's saying that.
有500亿美元的变现，但没人提。
There was 50,000,000,000 of monetization, but nobody was talking about it.
那这个呢？
How about this?
股价是7.5美元。
The stock is $7.50.
明年它会涨到一千美元，但我不会持有它。
It'll be at a thousand dollars next year, I won't own it.
像我这样的混蛋一直在叫他们开始出租算力。
Assholes like me were yelling at them to start renting out their compute.
比如，现在就给我们带来收入。
Like, give us the revenue now.
其实已经不需要再那样做了。
Matter of not need to do that anymore.
我几乎可以肯定，在过去两个月里，我买进又卖出了。
I'm pretty sure that in the last two months, bought and sold it.
我几乎可以确定。
I'm, like, almost positive.
我甚至不记得了，但我几乎肯定我做过。
I don't even remember, but I'm almost positive that I did.
好的。
Alright.
那恭喜你了。
Well, congratulations.
谢谢你。
I Thank you.
我得到了一个荣誉傻瓜奖杯。
I get a honorary, idiot trophy.
好的。
Okay.
我们来聊聊这个吧。
Let's talk about let's talk about this.
股市里的气息真难闻。
Breath in the stock market stinks.
所以，在最近几天我们看到了一波不错的反弹之后，指数本身接近历史高点。
So the index itself is right near an all time high after the pretty nice rally we've seen on the last couple of days.
顺便提一下，向汤姆·李致敬。
By the way, shout to Tom Lee.
我说得对吧？
Am I right?
再多说点。
Say more.
汤姆·李说牛市会在明天凌晨2点15分开始。
Tom Lee said the bull market was gonna start tomorrow at 02:15.
所以他提前了一天，不过……
So he was a day early, but...
因为那个……
Because the
第二天就开始了。
It started the next day.
第二天凌晨2点15分就开始了。
It started the next day at 02:15.
但是……
But...
所以对于没有背景的观众来说，他不是...
So for people watching this without the context, he's not...
他并不觉得自己有预知能力。
He doesn't think he's clairvoyant.
第二天凌晨2点15分
02:15 the next day
那是美联储的会议。
That was the Fed meeting.
是美联储的
Was the Fed
会议。
meeting.
好的。
Okay.
但是...
But...
好的。
Alright.
所以我们看到的就是这样。
So we're getting that.
市场涨了，但参与上涨的股票不多，这其实也不是什么新鲜事。
We got the rally, but there's not a lot of stocks participating in the rally, which is nothing really new.
过去十年里，我们聊过这个话题无数次了。
We've had this conversation countless times over the last decade.
而且我觉得总的来说，我们一直保持比较乐观的态度，就是说当股市接近历史高点，而表面之下却出现了洗盘……
And I think generally speaking, we've stayed mostly positive saying that when the stock market is near an all time high and you got the washout under the surface that has...
在牛市中，这其实是看涨的信号，因为已经出现了……
In a bull market, that's bullish because you already got the...
我所说的看涨洗盘，然后个股会跟上大盘。
What I call a bullish washout, and then the stocks catch up to the stock market.
传统上，情况就是这样发展的。
That is what has traditionally happened.
但这并不意味着这种情况总会发生，不过现在确实是个事实，市场广度很差。
Doesn't mean it will always happen, but it is also a fact right now that breath does stink.
所以杰森·格普弗发推说，近一百年来我们从未见过市场广度这么差的情况。
So Jason Gepfer tweeted, we've never in almost a hundred years seen breath this bad.
标普指数已经触及新高，但创出新低的股票数量远多于创出新高的。
The S and P has knocked on new highs, but there are many more stocks at lows than highs.
所以……
So the...
他说唯一稍微类似的情况是1973年和1999年。
He said the only remotely similar setups were 1973, 1999.
他这么说并不是为了吓唬人。
He's not doing that to be scary.
那只是……
That it...
那只是数据所显示的……
That is just what the data...
数据就是这么显示的。
That's just what it shows.
但你会注意到那张图表里……
But what you'll notice in that chart...
其实，我们来看下一张。
Actually, let's go to the next one.
然后瑞安说……
So Ryan said...
瑞安·迪特里希说，几乎所有人都注意到，过去一个月左右市场广度一直很弱，但斯科特的图表指出一个积极信号是广度……
Ryan Dietrich said, as nearly everyone has noted, breath has been weak the past month or so, but Scott charts noted one positive is that breath...
你在这里就能看到。
And you could see this right here.
这次广度和价格同时见顶。
Breath peaked with price this time.
记住，在主要顶部，你会看到广度远早于价格就见顶了。
Remember, at major peaks, you see breath peak well before price.
我给你们看个例子来说明这一点。
And I'll give you exhibit a for this.
请把图表关掉。
Chart off, please.
约翰，让我来说说这个。
And, John, let me just talk to this.
我不需要这个表格。
I don't need this table.
所以在1990年……
So in 1990...
现在，乔什，股市今年至今上涨了14%。
So right now, Josh, the stock market is up 14% year to date.
我问过，有很多股票被狠狠打压了。
And I asked, there's a lot of stocks that are getting the shit kicked out of them.
今年至今，有多少比例的股票下跌了30%或更多？
What percentage of the stock market is down 30% or more year to date?
对吧？
Okay?
结果是4%。
And it's 4%.
所以标普涨了14%。
So S and P up 14%.
而市场中有4%的股票跌幅超过30%。
4% of the market is down 30% or more.
说实话，这比我预想的要少得多。
That's way less than I would have thought, honestly.
我本来以为
I thought it
我本来想说10%的。
I was gonna say I would have said 10%.
我也是。
Me too.
我还以为，我还以为会多得多呢。
I thought it was I thought it was way more.
我当时挺惊讶的。
I was surprised.
好。
Okay.
这就是所谓的看跌背离式洗盘。
This is what a bearish divergence wipeout looks like.
比如1998年，标普500涨了29%，但指数里有10%的股票跌了30%以上。
For example, in 1998, the S and P 500 was up 29%, and 10% of the index was down 30% or more in '98.
到了99年，市场涨了21%，但14%的股票跌了30%以上。
And then in '99, the market was up 211414% of the market was down 30% or more.
这跟今天的情况完全不是一回事。
That is clearly not even remotely what is happening today.
规模还不够大。
It's not big enough.
不是4%对14%的问题。
It's not that 4% versus 14%.
完全是另一个世界。
It's a different planet.
另一个世界。
Different planet.
1999年那14%创新低的股票，当时市场可是在疯涨。
The 14% of stocks that were making lows as in 1999, the market was ripping.
我可以确切告诉你它们是哪些。
I can tell you exactly what they were.
就是零售股，那时候零售业在标普500里占的比重非常大。
It was literally retailers, and retailers were a really big part of the S and P 500 back then.
你根本想象不到有多少家。
Like, you can't even imagine how many of them there were.
西尔斯还是道琼斯蓝筹股呢。
Sears was a Dow stock blue chip.
哇，真的假的。
Oh, wow.
我们当时有像P1这样的公司。
We had companies like P1.
西尔斯的股票代码是什么？
What was the ticker for Sears?
你还记得吗？
Do you remember?
是S，后来变成SHLD，就是西尔斯的时候。
It was s, and then it became s h l d when it became Sears.
哦，我记得那个。
Oh, I remember that one.
顺便说一句，
By
我最不喜欢的网络安全股票是SentinelOne，这周我和肖恩在CNBC上写过它。
the way, my least favorite cybersecurity stock is SentinelOne, and I wrote it up for CNBC this week with Sean.
我不碰这只股票的主要原因之一，就是尽管它现在在突破上涨，
And one of my main reasons for refusing to get involved with the stock even though it's breaking out
股票代码是什么？
Ticker?
它用了西尔斯以前的股票代码。
It took Sears' old ticker symbol.
你不能这么做。
You don't do that.
你不能用西尔斯的股票代码。
You don't take the Sears ticker symbol.
你怎么想的？
What are you?
是不是脑子进水了？
Fucking high?
这简直是你能想象到的最糟糕的判断。
Like, literally the worst judgment imaginable.
这可不是个好兆头。
It's a it's a bad omen.
判断力太差了。
Bad judgment.
有人可能会说，GB，你还活在过去呢，老兄。
People might say, GB, you're living in the past, man.
那没关……
Doesn't mat...
对。
Yes.
有关系。
It does.
股票代码是有报应的。
There's karma attached to tickers.
股票代码是有魔力的。
Ticker symbols are magic.
它们就像古老的符文。
They're like ancient runes.
它们就像象形文字。
They're like hieroglyphs.
别乱搞那些东西。
Don't fuck around with that.
话说回来，我刚才说到哪儿了？
Anyway, where was I?
哦，99年的时候，正是这些零售商导致了那个你指出的数据。
Oh, in '99, all of these retailers were the reason for that stat that you're pointing out.
那和今年夏天我们经历的SaaSpocalypse非常相似。
And it was very similar to this summer when we had the SaaSpocalypse.
当时有一整套交易策略，做多纳斯达克，做空零售商。
There was this whole trade of long, the Nasdaq, short, the retailers.
那时候还没有XRT ETF。
And there was no XRT ETF back then.
所以那时候你只能一个个挑股票代码，大家就在挑那些卖床单什么的公司，现在都没了。
So you literally had to pick tickers, and people were picking, linens and things, which is gone.
还有Radio Shack，也没了。
Radio Shack, which is gone.
Borders，那家是上市公司吗？
Borders, was that publicly traded?
应该是吧。
Probably.
绝对是。
Totally.
BGP。
BGP.
Pure one Imports。
Pure one Imports.
我们……
We...
当时标普和整个市场里有很多零售股。
There were a ton of retail stocks in the S and P and in the market.
有一家公司叫Sam Goody，卖CD和吉他。
There was a company called Sam Goody, which sold CDs and guitars.
好的。
Okay.
Guitar Center也是一只股票。
Guitar Center was a stock.
我们当时在做空，比如我们
We were shorting, like, we
Radio Shack
Radio Shack
在把这些股票的价值往下调。
was writing those stocks down.
另外，当时还有一波大规模的钢铁股破产潮，这些股票在九十年代的市场里也非常重要。
The other thing that was going on is there was a massive wave of bankruptcy for steel stocks, and those were also very important stocks in the market in the nineties.
到99年的时候，它们几乎都归零了，但那些股票也在拖累市场。
By '99, they were all almost zero, but those were contributing to that drag down effect.
你提到的这种情况，就是4%的股票被重创，而市场却涨了两位数。
In this case that you're citing, having 4% of stocks getting killed while the market is up double digits.
这种局面，我巴不得天天遇到。
Like, I'll take that all day.
这种情况确实发生过
That happened
在
in the
过去三年里。
last three years.
这不算什么。
It's nothing.
实际上，在23年、24年和25年，这个数字是2%、4%和5%，而市场却在猛涨。
Literally, in '23 and '24 and '25, it was two, four, and five while the market was ripping.
所以这并不……
So it's not...
没什么新鲜的。
Nothing new.
把市值加权和等权重的图表调出来看看。
Throw up this chart of cap weight versus equal weight.
这真是超级大盘股或者市值加权相对等权重的一次猛烈拉升。
This is a this is a hell of a rip that we got in the mega caps or the cap weighted relative to the equal weight.
Josh，看看过去几周这个走势。
Look at this rep, Josh, over the past couple of weeks.
这是苹果、英伟达和Meta同时发力，表现都很好。
This is Apple, NVIDIA, and and Meta all at the same time getting their shit together.
因为亚马逊四年都没怎么动，而Alphabet在高位徘徊很久了。
Because Amazon's Amazon's been flat for four years, and Alphabet has been hanging near highs for a long time.
要产生这种与市场广度相反的走势，苹果和英伟达必须重新发力，而它们现在都离历史高点只差几分钱。
What had to happen to generate this, this contra move to the broadening, You had to get Apple and NVIDIA back in gear, and both of them are within pennies of record highs.
而且，显然，Meta这波涨得毫无征兆。
And, obviously, this Meta thing came out of nowhere.
想想这三只股票的市值加起来有多少。
Think about the market cap of those three stocks combined.
是十万亿吗？
Is it 10,000,000,000,000?
还是十二万亿？
Is it 12,000,000,000,000?
所以无所谓啦。
So whatever.
反正很大。
It's a lot.
五万亿、四万亿、两万亿？
Five, four, and two?
很大。
It's lot.
很多。
A lot.
就是这样。
That's it.
整个故事就在这里。
That's the whole story right there.
所以，简单来说，我刚才和本聊过，AI交易这事儿，简单来说就是——
So to to very oversimplify, I was just talking about this with Ben, to very oversimplify the AI trade.
说一只股票。
Name one stock.
AI是什么？
What's the AI
交易？
trade?
比如，哪只股票最能代表
Like, what stock personifies
AI交易？
the AI trade?
是的。
Yes.
别想得太复杂。
Don't overthink it.
英伟达。
NVIDIA.
对。
Correct.
所以英伟达就是AI的集大成者。
So NVIDIA is the sum of everything AI.
它的市盈率只有16倍（基于未来盈利预测）。
It is trading at 16 times forward earnings.
是不是很疯狂？
Isn't that nuts?
我好久没看那个图表了。
I haven't looked at that chart in a while.
16倍。
16.
它的交易价格比市场有折扣，因为很多人不相信盈利的可持续性。
It is trading at a discount to the market because there is so much disbelief of the sustainability of the earnings.
你知道整个半导体板块现在相对于标普有10%到20%的折价吗？
Do you know the whole semiconductor sector is now at, like, a a 10 or 20% discount to the S and P?
有
There is
你指出的这种现象在博通身上也在发生。
That phenomenon you're pointing out is happening at Broadcom.
有太多……
There is so much...
我觉得这太棒了。
I think this is so great.
市场上有太多怀疑，即使他们是对的，即使盈利不可持续，我真的觉得这些都已经反映在股价里了。
There is so much disbelief that even if they're right, even if the earnings even if the earnings are not sustainable, I really feel like that's mostly in the price.
16倍预期市盈率？
16 times forward earnings?
不是全部。
Not all of it.
我不是说英飞凌不可能跌30%。
I'm not saying Infinity can't fall 30%.
但想象一下，如果这些公司一年后还在创造创纪录的季度业绩呢。
But imagine if these companies are still printing record quarters a year from now.
没错。
Exactly.
而且还在指引未来一个季度创纪录的业绩。
And guiding towards a record quarter from now.
到时候就不会再以16倍市盈率交易了。
Won't be trading at won't be trading at 16 times earnings then.
好的。
Alright.
我们来聊聊你我都持有、却一直表现不佳的那只股票吧。
Let's talk about the stock that you and I both own that cannot get out of its own way.
我现在就告诉你。
I'm gonna tell you right now.
这是我今年最糟糕的判断。
This is my worst call of the year.
你觉得呢？
What do you think?
我……我也不……
I I don't...
我也是。
Mine too.
我是说，嗯，我……
I mean, well, I...
不幸的是，我做过更糟糕的判断。
I've made worse calls, unfortunately.
我们得好好聊聊这个。
We need to get into that.
这真的很糟糕。
It's it's bad.
好的。
Alright.
我今年没犯过多少错误。
I have not made a lot of bad calls this year.
我的意思是，我每年总会犯几个错，因为我是人嘛，而且我觉得犯错并不是世界末日。
I mean, I I always make a few every year because I'm fucking human, and I don't I don't think it's the end of the world to be wrong on things.
这不是...
It's not...
这不是我玩的游戏。
That's not the game that I play.
但这次我错得离谱。
But I've been double wrong on this.
我经常犯错，但我都会设止损。
Like, I'm wrong a lot, but I use stops.
但这次我反着来了。
I did the opposite here.
我一路都在补仓，就是不肯面对现实。
I was I was, like, averaging down the whole way, and I just, I just refused to see reality.
我们说的是……
We're talking...
各位，我们说的是奈飞。
Guys, we're talking Netflix.
所以我在所有场合谈论这只股票时都判断错了。
So I've been wrong in every venue I've talked about this stock.
我写文章分析它时也错了。
I've been wrong writing about it.
我在电视上也说错了。
I've been wrong on TV about it.
我在这个节目上也说错了。
I've been wrong on, on this show about it.
我想给你们看看这三年的走势图。
And I wanna show you the three year chart.
这只股票之前涨得很猛。
So this stock was ripping.
比如在24年，这只股票很热门，25年上半年也是。
Like, in '24, this was a hot name and the first half of twenty five.
然后我不太确定为什么它突然就崩了，除了公司卷入了华纳兄弟那档子破事。
And then I'm not a thousand percent sure why it all of a sudden fell apart other than the company waded into this Warner Brothers mishegas.
这就是全部原因。
That's the entire reason.
因为你看，你看它就是从那儿开始跌的。什么鬼。
Because look look where it fell off What the
那真是个糟糕的决定。
a horrible decision that was.
我从来就不喜欢那个。
I never liked that.
我从来就不喜欢那个想法。
I never liked the idea.
我不太明白……
I don't under...
我一直不太明白……
I never under...
我当时没搞懂，但我也……
I didn't understand it at the time, but I also were...
当时也有点愿意接受这个想法，想着，你知道吗？
Was sort of, like, open to the idea that, you know what?
那可是个四千亿美元的大公司。
It's a $400,000,000,000 company.
他们现在想干什么都行了。
They could do whatever they want now.
我当时其实有点接受这个想法。
I was, like, sort of open to that idea.
那些看空的人就说，如果他们认为Netflix需要吸收华纳兄弟及其劳动问题和债务，300亿美元的债务，Netflix觉得它需要吸收吗？
The bears were like, if they think they need to absorb Warner Brothers and its labor issues and its debt, $30,000,000,000 in debt Netflix thinks it needs to absorb?
为什么？
Why?
那才是对的看法，而那不是我的看法。
And that was the right take, and it wasn't my take.
我错了。
And I was wrong.
我想给你看看……
I I wanna show you...
在这张图表上给我看看。
Show me on this chart.
我知道我应该在哪个位置卖出。
I know where I should have sold.
我有两次机会。
I had two chances.
而且不是在那个……
And and not at the...
不一定是在最高点。
Necessarily at the high.
你说说我应该在哪个位置卖出。
Tell me where you think I should have sold.
在我说之前，我得先夸夸自己。
Before I do that, I will just say credit to me.
我是在它大跌之后买入的。
I bought this thing after it got killed.
所以我是在二月份接近低点的时候买入的，我记得，然后我在反弹的时候卖掉了。
So I did buy near the lows in February, I believe, and I sold it on the rip.
但后来我犯了个傻，五月份的时候它补了缺口，我又买回来了。
But then stupidly, when it filled the gap in sometime in May, that's when I bought it again.
因为我以为能抓住那个补缺口的行情。
Because I thought I was gonna catch the gap fill.
我太贪心了，想玩得太花。
I tried to get too cute.
所以现在我在这个股票上亏了19%。
So I'm now down 19% of the stock.
好吧。
Alright.
回到图表上来。
Back to the chart.
我应该在哪儿卖？
Where should I have sold?
我买了。
I bought it.
我第一次买入是在100块，这个图上没显示。
My my first purchase was at 100, not pictured on this chart.
我是25年夏天买的。
I bought it in the summer of twenty five.
我没买在最高点。
I did not pay the high.
最高点我记得是一块三毛多。
The high, I think, was $1.30 something.
所以我大概付了100块。
So I I paid, like, 100.
好的。
Okay.
所以那是我第一次买入的价格。
So I was my first price.
所以我觉得正确答案是这样的。
So so I think here's the right answer.
你看不到我的鼠标在哪里，但我现在正悬停在2026年5月那个位置。
You can't see where my mouse is, but I'm hovering over May 2026.
所以我买入的时候，就是它回补缺口的时候，对吧？
So when I bought it, when it filled the gap, right?
你看到2026年5月那个点了吗？
You see May 26?
它回补了缺口，然后横盘整理，接着就跌破了。
So it filled the gap, went sideways and then broke down.
大概那就是我该卖出的地方，也是你该卖出的地方。
Probably that's where I should have sold and where you should have sold.
所以就在那附近，看起来大概是80.80美元左右。
So right around that looks like, I don't know, $80.80 dollars or so.
所以我就在2026年5月到7月之间。
So I'm between between May and July 2026.
我得告诉你，那可不是我觉得我该卖出的地方。
I'm gonna tell you that's not that's not where I think I should have sold.
不是因为价格更高，而是我显然应该在死亡交叉之后不久就卖出。
And not because the price is higher, but I obviously should have sold shortly after the death cross.
对于那些不熟悉死亡交叉的人来说，很简单，就是五十日移动平均线跌破两百日移动平均线。
So for those of you who are not familiar with the death cross, it's very simply when you have a fifty day moving average cross below the 200 moving average.
基本上，这不是什么科学。
Basically, it's not science.
这就像是一种简写，表示短期内的负面动能已经压过了长期趋势，卖家掌控了这只股票。
It's like a shorthand for the the negative momentum in the near term is now overwhelmed the the longer term trend, and the the sellers are in control of the stock.
所以它不是万能的，不是每次都准，但它是一个路标，告诉你股票中的心理已经发生了显著变化。
So it's not an automatic silver bullet always right kind of thing, but it is a signpost that tells you the psychology in a stock has meaningfully changed.
它可能跟基本面变化一致，也可能不一致。
It may or may not coincide with the fundamental change.
以Netflix为例，当时确实没有基本面变化。
In the case of Netflix, there really was no fundamental change at that point.
但这表明人们对它失去了热情。
But it was a sign that people were losing enthusiasm for this.
那是在哪里发生的？
So where did that happen?
看起来是十二月的第一周。
That looks like the first week of December.
巴克镇。
Bucktown.
而且，你知道吗？
And and and you know what?
它并没有……
It did not...
就像，在这个特定情况下，它除了下跌什么都没做。
Like, in this particular case, it did nothing but fall.
看起来它每天都在跌。
It looks like it fell every single day.
我知道它没有。
I know it didn't.
看起来从十二月到三月每天都在跌。
It looks like it fell every single day from December to March.
你不觉得是这样吗？
Isn't that what it looks like to you?
所以我同意你的看法。
So I agree with you.
我看图表的时候，看的是右边那部分。
When I was looking at the chart, I was looking at the right hand side.
我在想我什么时候该卖。
I was saying when I should have sold.
我不知道你那时候就持有了。
I didn't realize you owned it all the way back then.
你早该卖掉的。
You you should have sold.
你这个笨蛋。
You dumbass.
我他妈的还加仓了。
I I fucking added to it.
但是……
But...
好吧。
Okay.
但是，但是快进到今天。
But but fast forward to today.
我……
I...
就是，我都不敢卖了。
Like, I'm afraid to sell.
我不卖。
I'm not selling it.
我感觉这……
I feel this...
说真的，我觉得我们错过了最佳时机。
Seriously, I think we we missed the window.
不过话说回来，卖东西永远都不算晚。
Now it is true that it's never too late to sell.
我一般认同亚当的说法，但那个老光头知道什么时候该打破规则。
I generally buy that that Adam, but the the old bald man knows when to break the rules.
好吧。
Alright.
我已经……
I already...
其实我已经打破了自己的规则，因为我被困在里面了。
Well, I already broke my rule because I'm stuck in it.
但好消息是……
But here's the good news.
我在那次跳空下跌的时候加仓了。
I added to it on that gap down
在财报发布之后。
after earnings.
我的平均成本是81。
My average price is 81.
现在股价是73美元。
It's a $73 stock.
哦，那还不错。
Oh, that's not bad.
所以你确实...
So you do...
你比我强。
You're better than I am.
两天前股价还在80。
The stock was at 80 two days ago.
问题是，我真的很固执，我不想就这么毫发无损地退出。
The thing is I'm really stubborn, and I don't just wanna come out of this thing unscathed.
其实，过了这么久，你知道我的性格，它欠我的。
I actually, after all this time, you know the way I am, it owes me.
我违反了所有书面上和书外的股市规则。
I'm violating every I'm violating every stock market rule on the books and off the books.
我坚持要在这里赚钱。
I insist on making money here.
我其实觉得我会赚到，因为现场活动、NFL，以及他们越来越深入地涉足那些能带来大量新用户且不容易流失的领域。
I actually think I'm going to because of the live events, the NFL, and their increasing penetration into things that bring in a lot of new users who then don't churn out.
我想跟你分享一下华尔街的看空和看多观点。
And I want to share with you the bear case and the bull case according to Wall Street.
富国银行有个人给出了华尔街的最低目标价。
There's a guy at Wells Fargo that has the low street target.
他给的是50美元……
He's at 50...
我觉得要么是……
I think it's either...
好的。
Alright.
有两个人。
There's two guys.
汇丰有个人今天刚把目标价下调到76。
One guy at HSBC just cut his price target to 76, today.
富国银行那个人在9月18号把目标价下调到了57美元。
This guy at Wells Fargo cut his price target on September 18 to $57.
哦。
Oh.
他是最低的……
He is the low...
他是……
He is...
那意味着从现在的价格还有超过25%的下跌空间。
That's implying more than 25% downside from here.
原因就在这里。
Here's here's why.
估值倍数被压缩了，他把远期市盈率从21倍下调到15倍，他认为应该在这个水平交易。
Compressed valuation multiple, he's going from 21 times forward to 15 where he thinks it should trade.
他下调了2027年的盈利预期。
He cut his earnings for '27.
他还下调了2028年的盈利预期。
He cut his earnings for 2028.
他说上半年每位订阅用户每天平均观看时长为1.6小时。
He's saying viewing averaged one point six hours per subscriber per day in the first half.
这比2023年的水平下降了8%，已经考虑了密码共享和地域结构的影响。
That's down 8% from twenty twenty three levels adjusted for password sharing and geographic mix.
他说Netflix前100部原创剧集的观看时长在期间内下降了，顺便说一句，这些剧集是他们赖以生存的根本。
He's saying hours for Netflix's top 100 original titles, which is what they live and die on, by the way, fell during the period.
他们在美国电视观看中的份额现在不到8%。
Their share of US TV watching is now below 8%.
他对这个故事的看法是，Netflix 缺乏大型原创剧集，而且参与度趋势看起来令人担忧。
And his problem with the story is Netflix has lacked big original series, and it's showing engagement trends look worrying to us.
所以他的观点，和另一位看空者不同，我稍后会提到，就是 Netflix 今年在内容上花了 200 亿美元。
So his point, which is different than the other bear, I'll talk about in a second, is that Netflix, they're spending $20,000,000,000 this year on content.
我们需要下一个……
We need the next...
这太疯狂了。
It's crazy.
我们需要下一个《怪奇物语》。
We need the next stranger things.
我们需要下一个让人们和朋友谈论 Netflix 并订阅的理由。
We need the next reason that people are talking about Netflix with their friends and subscribing.
他们需要一个《布里奇顿》。
They need a Bridgerton.
他们需要一个《黑钱胜地》，一个 Netflix 独有的、能让人们在关掉电视后还在现实世界中谈论的东西。
They need, an Ozark, something that is unique to Netflix that gets people in the real world when they click the TV off talking about it.
派拉蒙有那些剧。
Paramount has those shows.
我认识的每个人都在聊《母狮》。
Everybody I know is talking about Lioness.
太好看了。
So good.
《兰德曼》。
Landman.
派拉蒙就有那些……
Like, Paramount has those...
现在就有那些好东西。
Has that shit right now.
网……
Net...
网飞的剧，有谁在聊吗？
Netflix show is anyone talking about?
说实话，现在还有像《毒枭》那样的剧吗？
Honestly, is there another Narcos?
还有什么值得看的吗？
Is there anything?
那看多的理由是什么？
So what's the bull case?
我们为什么要持有这只烂股？
Why do we own this piece of shit?
最后再提一下看空的观点。
Last last thing on the bear case.
今天，汇丰银行他们根本不在乎奈飞的原创节目。
Today, HSBC, they don't care about Netflix's original program.
他们认为这只股票……
They think the stock...
这家公司无论如何都完蛋了，因为他们觉得YouTube已经开启了一个新的威胁层面，而且这个威胁无解。
The company's fucked either way because they think YouTube has just opened up a new threat level surface that there is no answer to.
引用一下，YouTube的策略是扩大其在电视和客厅中的存在，加剧了屏幕时间的竞争。
Quote, YouTube strategy is to expand its presence on televisions and in living rooms, intensifying competition for screen time.
YouTube是一种根本不同类型的威胁。
YouTube is a fundamentally different kind of threat.
什么……
What...
引用，一个通过广告资助的广泛分发的视频平台，Netflix对此没有真正的应对之策。
Quote, widely distributed video platform financed through advertising that Netflix has no real answer to.
他们认为Netflix的用户……
They see no recovery in Netflix's user...
在YouTube的压力下，使用指标不会恢复。
Usage metrics given that YouTube pressure.
这本质上是一个市场份额的故事，而不是参与度的故事。
It's essentially a market share story, not an engagement story.
所以他们都看空，但出于两个不同的原因。
So they both are bearish, but for two different reasons.
我想问你，你更同意哪个观点。
I wanna ask you which of those you agree with more.
问题是缺乏创意和热门剧集，还是基本上他们在跟YouTube这个像达斯·维达和帝国一样的存在对抗，不管他们放什么内容都没用？
Is the problem the lack of creativity and hit shows, or is the problem, like, basically, they're going against Darth Vader and the empire in the form of YouTube, and it doesn't even matter what they put on
上节目？
the air?
显然两者都有。
It's obviously both.
但我觉得YouTube分散注意力、市场份额的故事，我觉得这已经反映在股价里了。
But I feel like the YouTube distraction, market share story, I feel like that's in the price.
我觉得所有这些……
I feel like all of...
这已经被充分理解了。
That is so well understood.
你这么认为吗？
You think so?
是的。
Yes.
百分之百。
100%.
我们早就这么说了。
We've been telling this for a long time.
我觉得这部分大家都很清楚。
I feel like that part is so well understood.
Netflix 现在是不是在被动应对，靠加播客、从 YouTube 抢内容来赚钱？
Is Netflix being reactive by adding podcasts and taking things away from YouTube for money?
当然。
Of course.
然后还开始做竖屏内容。
And then getting into vertical
当然。
Of course.
去抓住那些显然不愿意横着看视频的18岁年轻人。
Capture the 18 year olds who apparently won't watch anything sideways.
但更大的问题是，没有爆款内容。
But the bigger issue is there's no hits.
好的。
Okay.
所以你觉得这才是真正的...
So you think that's the real...
嗯，这听起来像是他们可以扭转局面的地方。
Well, that sounds like the thing they could turn around.
对。
Correct.
好的。
Okay.
他们只是，只是...
They just just...
嘿，泰勒·谢里丹。
Hey, Taylor Sheridan.
那太晚了。
Well, that's too late.
但真的是这样吗？
But Is it?
是的。
Well Yeah.
刚做了。
Just did
他刚和环球影业谈成了合作，之前是派拉蒙。
a he just did a deal with Universal after Paramount.
哦，真的吗？
Oh, he did?
那是他的下一站。
That's his his next stop.
环球是什么？
What's Universal?
孔雀？
Peacock?
NB……
NB...
NBC……
NBC...
好吧。
Alright.
这是看涨的理由。
Here's the bull case.
Evercore ISI加倍押注。
Evercore ISI doubled down.
他们实际上把目标价从100上调到了110。
They actually raised their target from a 100 to one ten.
我就给你说说重点吧。
I'll just give you the highlights.
根据他们自己的调查，美国用户渗透率实际上达到了多年来的新高，63%。
US subscriber penetration actually hit a multiyear high of 63% according to their own survey.
日本的渗透率也创下了22%的纪录。
Japanese penetration rose to a record 22%.
流失意向，也就是问人们是否可能取消订阅，在两个市场都有所改善。
Churn intentions, meaning people get asked, are you likely to cancel, improved in both markets.
直播活动的观看率从三月的42%跳到了九月的60%，这意味着他们扩大了直播活动的范围，以至于超过一半的用户对他们推出的内容感兴趣。
Live event viewership jumped to 60% of users in September from 42% in March, which means they have broadened out the portfolio of live events, to the point where more than half of users are interested in what they're putting on.
在日本，45%的新调查用户表示，他们是因为世界棒球经典赛的推广而加入的。
In Japan, 45% of newly surveyed subs said they joined because of the World Baseball Classic, promotion.
Netflix的短视频内容，也就是他们的短格式内容，在日本受访者中达到了46%的使用率，在美国是38%。
Netflix clips, which is their short form content, reached 46 usage amongst Japanese respondents, 38% in The US.
确实很多，确实很多。
It's a lot it's a lot.
所以这真是
So It's a
太多了，事情太多了。
lot it's a lot going on.
但我就说，关于Netflix最后一点。
But I just say I say last thing on Netflix.
我无法想象没有重大变化就能达到110。
I can't imagine it getting to one ten without a major change.
它不会就这么悬在那儿。
It's not just gonna float there.
它不会就这么悬在那儿。
It's not just gonna float there.
所以，你之前提到过，我们还要多少次才能学会不要跟马克·扎克伯格对着干。
So so you mentioned earlier how many times are we gonna learn to not bet against Mark Zuckerberg.
我觉得Netflix也赢得了同样的权利，但前提是，是的，所有看空的观点都是有道理的。
And I feel like Netflix has earned that same right with the stipulation that, yes, all of the bear case is legitimate.
不是说这只股票被惩罚是没有原因的。
Not saying the stock is getting punished for no reason.
确实有充分的理由。
There's good reason.
但如果你看一下……
But if you look at a...
股价走势图，看到所有的回撤，有多次70%的回撤。
The stock chart and you see all the drawdowns, there are multiple different 70% drawdowns.
现在，我……
Now I am...
我不是说要跌到70%。
I'm not sending to a 70.
如果真那样走，我就退出。
If this goes that way, I'm out.
但现在，它从高点已经下跌了47%。
But right now, it's down 47% from its highs.
大家都很悲观。
People are bearish.
我们知道。
We know.
他们在回购。
They're buying back.
他们在第二季度回购了价值47亿美元的股票。
They bought back $4,700,000,000 worth of stock in q two.
他们还有250亿美元的回购授权尚未使用。
They have a $25,000,000,000 buyback authorization still outstanding.
走起。
Let's go.
要激进一点。
BE aggressive.
我喜欢这样。
I love it.
他们应该能在可预见的未来保持两位数的盈利增长。
They should be able to grow earnings double digits for as far as the eye can see.
而且他们也会做到的。
And they're going to.
好的。
Okay.
你说的他们一直赚钱这一点，和实际情况有一个区别，你说得对。
The one difference between what you're saying they earned all this time, and you're right.
很多时候，比如2022年就是个很好的例子，股价跌了一半还多。
A lot of times when 2022 is a great example, the stock was more than cut in half.
然后他们推出了广告支持和密码共享修复，股价就回升了。
And then they launched ad supported and password fix and the stock worked.
现在情况不一样了。
It's a different guy.
CEO已经换人了。
CEO is gone.
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