股票并没有你想象的那么贵 | WAYT？

这件衬衫真时髦。

That's a snazzy shirt.

你说得对。

You're right.

我们和Tropical Bros合作了，下周会为Future Proof推出新款。

So we did a collab with Tropical Bros, and we've got a new one dropping for future proof next week.

我们还做了女款，所以也提供给有兴趣的朋友。

We also have a woman's cut, so we made that available for inquiring minds.

如果你在音乐节现场，想有机会赢一件这种时髦又舒服的Polo衫，就来我们的展位看看，我们会想办法的。

If you are at the festival and you want a chance to win one of these snazzy looking polos and they are quite comfy, come by the booth and we'll see what we can do.

好的。

Alright.

我一直在想这个问题。

So I was thinking about this.

有太多名牌股票被炒到天上去了。

There are so many name brand stocks getting sent into outer space.

所以，Matt，你帮我做了一张这些股票的图表。

So, Matt, you made me a chart of some of these.

这是我的图表。

This is my chart.

哦，太棒了。

Oh, hell yeah.

好的。

Alright.

这个标题有点俏皮。

So the title is a bit cute.

上面写着：不要投资于你所了解的东西。

It says do not invest what in what you know.

在我们看这张图表之前，Peter Lynch 可能对这个环节非常恼火，因为他退休后整个职业生涯都在处理这类问题。

So before we before we get to this chart, Peter Lynch is probably really annoyed at this segment because he's been dealing with the shit his entire career since he retired.

他并不是说盲目购买你了解的东西。

And he didn't just say blindly buy what you know.

好的。

Okay.

公平地说，他说的是，也许想想你每天消费的东西，我2012年就该这么做，那时候我天天去Chipotle，然后想，哦，我一直在用这个产品、这个服务。

In fairness, he said, maybe think about what you consume on a daily basis, which I should have done in 2012 when I was in Chipotle every day and think, oh, like I'm using this product, this service all the time.

也许还有其他人跟我一样。

Maybe there are other people just like me.

好吧。

All right.

先把这个前提放一边，天哪，来看图表吧。

With that caveat aside, holy smokes, chart on.

有太多我们熟悉又不同程度喜欢的公司正在被重创。

There are so many names that we know and love to varying degrees getting wrecked.

AutoZone回撤了32%。

AutoZone and a 32 drawdown.

达美乐披萨下跌了28%。

Domino's Pizza down 28%.

露露乐蒙跌了55%。

Lululemon down 55%.

优步跌了28%。

Uber 28.

耐克跌了50%。

Nike down 50.

顺便说一句，耐克的市值已经跌到560亿美元了。

By the way, Nike's market cap is down to $56,000,000,000.

而且它就是一直爬不起来。

And it just cannot cannot get off the mat.

一点反弹都没有。

No bounce whatsoever.

最后，我心爱的奈飞也跌了40%。

And finally, my beloved Netflix is in a 40% drawdown.

你把图表关掉吧。

You chart off, please.

你们看到这些数据并消化之后，有什么收获？

When you guys see this and digest it, what is the takeaway?

肖恩，你先来。

Sean, you start.

我上高中的时候，就开始关注这类东西了，因为你会看到塔吉特，看到它的股票代码，你认识它，也知道它。

When I was in high school, I first started looking at this types of stuff because, like, you see Target and you see the ticker and you know it and you're aware of it.

你看到耐克，就会想，我认识这个品牌，我想投资它。

You see Nike and you're like, I know this brand, like, I want to invest in it.

我喜欢他们的产品。

I like their products.

而且，这是一种很简单的投资方式。

And like, it's a very simple way to invest in things.

我觉得彼得·林奇写了很多关于这方面的内容。

And I think with Peter Lynch, like, he wrote a lot about it.

我读的第一本书就是彼得·林奇写的。

The first book I read was a Peter Lynch book.

投资你所了解的东西。

Invest in what you know.

比如，我忘了他是投资了哪只股票，但那只股票表现非常好，而且是他妻子用过的产品。

Like, I I forget what stock he invested in, but it did incredible and it was something that his wife used.

所以这很直观，但显然，这并不总是有效。

And so it it just it's it's intuitive, but obviously, it doesn't work all the time.

图表？

Chart?

我开始尝试把钱投入市场是在我大学二年级的时候，我想。

I started trying to put money in the market when I was, I think, a sophomore in college.

所以……

And so

大概是2024年？

like, 2024?

这实际上是2019年12月。

This is this is, like, this is, like, literally, actually December 2019.

对吧？

Okay?

我当时只买了个股。

And I I had only bought individual stocks.

对吧？

Okay?

我几乎还能记得。

I could almost remember.

像是宝洁公司。

It was like Procter and Gamble.

我记得还有苹果，但你知道，可口可乐，这些都是你了解的公司。

I think Apple was in the mix, but, you know, Coca Cola, all of these know what you own.

我当时读的书和肖恩读的一样。

And I was reading the same books as Sean.

我觉得对我来说最好的事情就是疫情来了，这些股票被重创了，你知道，它们跌得很惨。

Think the best thing that could happen to me is COVID happened, and these things got cut in like, you know, these stocks got crushed.

然后我就像个傻瓜一样卖掉了，这对我来说反而是最好的事情，因为即使我了解这些股票，即使我理解它们的商业模式，那也不代表我有优势。

And I sold like a dumbass, and it was the best thing that happened to me because even I knew these stocks, and then I knew that just because I understood them and I might understand their business models, that didn't give me an edge.

然后我就开始买指数基金了。

And I just started indexing.

对我来说，作为一个年轻人，有些你持有的股票跌得很惨，这其实挺有帮助的，因为这些就是我试过的方法，但都没用。

And for me, as a young person, it's actually been very helpful that some of these know what your own stocks have gotten cream because these are the things that I did on, and they didn't work.

即使我每个周末橄榄球训练后都去Chipotle吃饭，股票也不会涨。

And even though I was going to Chipotle every single weekend after football practice, the stock wouldn't go up.

就像你说的，Michael，股票根本不知道你持有它。

And like you say, Michael, the stock doesn't know you own it.

我很久以来都以为它知道，但它从来都不知道。

I thought it did for a very long time, and it never did.

然后它跌了，我卖了，开始买指数基金，结果真的奏效了。

And it went down, and I sold, and I started indexing, and it actually worked out.

这就是我的看法。

That's my that's my take.

我虽然没有这张图表，但比如说麦当劳，大概就是那种典型的“买你了解的东西”的股票。

I don't have this chart made, but McDonald's, for example, probably the ultimate buy what you know stock.

如果你看麦当劳除以标普500的比率，这基本上就是看两者之间的表现对比，麦当劳自2007年以来就没有跑赢过。

If you look at a ratio of McDonald's divided by the S and P 500, which basically shows you, like, how one is performing versus the other, McDonald's hasn't outperformed since 2007.

就是说，它相对于标普500一直在下跌。

Like, it is crashing relative to the S and P.

真是难以置信。

Unbelievable stuff.

耐克的价格和2014年一样。

Nike's at its same price since 2014.

它也有自己的失去的十年。

Like, it's it has its own lost decade.

真是不可思议。

Like, it's incredible.

所以你看这样的图表，你会说，天哪，这真的真的很难。

So you look at charts like this and you say, man, this this is really, really hard.

我决定不再这么做了。

I'm just gonna not do this anymore.

然后你还是会去做。

And then you do it anyway.

至少我是这样。

At least I do.

忍不住。

Can't help it.

没错。

That's right.

对。

Yeah.

我们都这样。

We all do.

好吧。

Alright.

等等。

Wait.

等一下。

Hold on.

什么可以

What can

我能加一句吗，约翰？

I add one thing, John?

当然。

Sure.

我抛出这个，但也要等等。

I throw up the but also do Wait.

等等。

Wait.

等等。

Wait.

在我们聊到那之前。

Before we get there.

关于这个，我只想说一点。

Just want to say one thing on this.

之前有个情况，迈克尔·巴里在买Lululemon，当时看起来挺奇怪的。

There was a so Michael Barry was buying Lululemon, which seems strange at the time.

然后Lulu上周公布了财报，股价大跌，他在Substack上透露了一些东西，我挺好奇想看看，但真不想每个月花50美元订阅迈克尔·巴里的内容。

And then Lulu reported earnings last week, got smoked and he revealed in a sub stack, which I was curious to read but I don't really feel like spending $50 a month for Michael Barry.

他说这是他的最大持仓，看起来他非常看好，而且他想在100美元以下积极加仓。

He said he's going to it's his biggest position, She seems very curious, and he wanted to aggressively add below a $100.

但股价从来没跌破100美元。

He never got below a $100.

不过

But

等等。

Wait.

等等。

Wait.

等等。

Wait.

我想插一句。

I I wanna jump in here.

对。

Yeah.

因为我觉得，大家普遍的看法是，把迈克尔·伯里的推文当作卖出信号，然后放到标普500的图表上，结果股价一直涨。

Because I think, like, the general sentiment, you know, people put Michael Burry's tweets to say sell, and they put them on an s and p 500 chart, and it just goes up.

但实际上，当我看到类似这样的东西时，我确实会认真听。

But, like, I actually do like, I do listen when I see something like that.

作为投资者，这确实会影响我。

Like, it does impact me as an investor.

确实会。

It does.

我就想，等等。

I'm like, hold on a second.

也许他说得对。

Maybe he's right.

你知道，我觉得很容易就把它忽略掉。

You know, like, it's very easy to just pass it off, I think.

但是，你知道，我知道他有一次是对的，这可能影响了他看待事情的方式。

But, you know, I know he was right one time, and it probably impacts the way he thinks about things.

但我确实认为他是个聪明人，而且可能，你知道，他可能是对的。

But I do think that he's a smart man and probably has you know, he he could be right.

我想说的就是，他可能是对的。

That's all I'm saying is he could be right.

关于什么？

On what?

关于Lulu还是整体上？

On Lulu or in general?

关于Lulu。

On Lulu.

不。

No.

不是一般情况。

Not in general.

是具体某只股票。

On a specific stock.

你知道吗？

You know?

就是，几乎，特别具体。

It's, almost, like, so specific.

好吧，你本不该说出来的，不过我只是开玩笑。

Well, you should you should have kept that to yourself, but I'm only teasing.

不同程度地，我们都会受到别人说的话影响，尤其是那些做得特别好的人。

To varying degrees to varying degrees, we are all influenced by things that we hear other people say, especially people that have done incredibly well.

我的意思是，显然，你知道，这是交易的一部分。

Mean, obviously, that's that's, you know, that's part of the deal.

好的，肖恩。

Alright, Sean.

那么另一方面，也有一些事情，你知道，表现得非常好。

So on the other side, there's also things that, you know, that have worked extraordinarily well.

比如苹果。

Apple, for example.

那你带来了什么？

So what did you bring?

对。

Yeah.

所以，虽然你没要求，但对我来说，这整件事就是投资很难。

So I you didn't ask for this, but I just this is this is a whole thing for me is that investing is difficult.

比如，我们可以从彼得·林奇开始，说投资你了解的，然后你了解的一切都不会表现太差。

Like, we could we could start with Peter Lynch and say, invest in what you know, and then everything that you know doesn't do poorly.

那这样的话，我们新的铁律是不是就是：永远不要投资你了解的东西？

And then so then, okay, is our new ironclad rule never invest in anything that you know?

答案是否定的。

And the answer is no.

比如，可能会有评论者过来说，嘿，傻瓜们，去看看苹果，去看看爱彼迎，对吧？

Like, we could have commenters coming in saying, hey, dummies, like, go look at Apple, go look at Airbnb, Right?

去看看怪兽饮料。

Go look at Monster.

比如塔吉特。

Like, some Target.

一些最知名的品牌表现非常出色。

Like, some of the most well known brands are doing incredible.

所以我觉得对我来说，关键点是：你了解一个品牌并且使用他们的产品，并不意味着他们的股票就值得你投资。

So I think just the the takeaway for me is that just because you know a brand and use their product does not mean that they're a stock that should you be investing in.

没错。

Correct.

股市里没有什么铁律。

There are no ironclad rules in the stock market.

对。

Yeah.

好。

Alright.

我最近在听一本新书，讲的是1873年，讲的是最早的一次真正全球性的经济繁荣和股市繁荣，还有罗斯柴尔德家族和铁路建设的融资，不只是铁路，他们还一个地区一个地区地讲，听起来很不错。

So I am listening to a a new book, 1873, and it was all about the earl one of the earliest global economic, truly global economic and stock market booms and about the Rothschilds and financing out the railroad build out and not just about the railroads, but they they go like geography by geography and it's it's a good good listen.

每一次狂热、泡沫、牛市，不管叫什么，其中一个关键因素就是欺诈。

And one of the key ingredients around every single mania, bubble, bull market, whatever, is fraud.

这种事总是会发生。

It always happens.

我跟Josh聊过这个。

And I was talking to Josh about this.

我就问他，欺诈在哪里？

And I said, where's the fraud?

他说，你在说什么？

And he said, what are you talking about?

我说，留到节目里再说。

And I said, save it for the show.

所以我不知道他本来想说什么。

So I don't know what he was going to say.

但我觉得，他说的第一点，也是最重要的一点是。

But one of I think one of the points that he this is the first point that he made.

然后我说，你是在事后才发现欺诈的，这很合理，也很明显。

Then I said then I said, you find out about the fraud after, which is fair and obvious.

但如果你想想我们经历的上一次狂热，那是四五年前的事了，对吧，2020年确实算得上一次真正的狂热。

But if you think about the last mania that we lived through, which was four year, five years ago, right, like 2020 was a legit mania.

而且我觉得，当时很多人就说，这太疯狂了。

And I think, you know, we many people said in real time, this is, you know, this is nuts.

市销率，有多少股票的市销率超过了，我不知道具体数字，但超过30的。

Price to sales ratio, how many stocks were trading with p price to sales ratio above I don't know what the crazy number is, above 30.

我是说，那真是疯了。

I mean, it was it was nuts.

所以，当我把这个话题写进文档时，又发现了一些新情况。

So as I have this topic in the doc, some new shit has come to light.

对吧？

Alright?

先别管马克·沃尔特那件事，因为虽然这件事现在非常轰动，故事也很惊人，但他是在2012年买下道奇队的。

Forget about the Mark Walter thing because while that is very, very much in the headlines and it's an incredible story, he bought the Dodgers in 2012.

对吧？

Right?

所以，他的整个帝国并不是靠今天的市场环境建立起来的。

So, there's but but like his whole empire is not a result of the market environment today.

所以，先把他那所谓的自我交易放一边。

So put that alleged self dealing to the side.

我要给你看的并不是什么欺诈行为。

What I'm about to present to you is not any fraud per se.

就是一些事情，所以先说清楚，不是欺诈。

It's just things so to be clear, not fraud.

我不想说“严格来说”这种话。

I don't want to say per se.

这不是欺诈。

It is not fraud.

明白吗？

Okay?

我不是在指控欺诈，但确实有些事情会让你想收紧止损，或者稍微降低风险，或者别去做杠杆操作。

I am not alleging fraud, but it is certainly things you see that make you maybe tighten your stops or maybe take a little bit less risk or maybe not do the leverage thing.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以这个时机真的恰到好处。

So the timing on this was really chef's kiss.

我觉得我是周末看到的这个。

I think I saw this over the weekend.

我没读那篇文章，因为说实话，谁在乎呢？

I didn't read the article because frankly, who gives a shit?

但亨特·拜登带着一个新的迷因币进入了加密货币圈。

But Hunter Biden enters the cryptosphere with a new meme coin.

好的。

Okay.

行吧。

Alright.

我们又要搞这个了。

We're doing this.

我们又来这一套了。

We're doing this again.

然后昨天，或者这是什么时候的事？

Then yesterday or when was this?

无所谓了。

Whatever.

周五，不管具体是哪天，勒布朗·詹姆斯和我的好兄弟伊莱·曼宁一起跟Polymarket搞了个合作，好像还有阿伦·贾奇也掺和进来了。

Friday, whatever it was, LeBron James doing a deal with Polymarket alongside my beloved Eli Manning, and I think Aaron Judge is involved.

然后昨天，我看到Robinhood在健康应用Ring的IPO过程中扮演了正式角色，我觉得这笔交易里也有它。

Then yesterday, I saw Robinhood is playing an official part in the IPO process for the wellness app, the Ring, I think, is part of this deal.

我也不太清楚。

I don't know.

Aura。

Aura.

其实这篇文章我确实读了，而且我挺喜欢Robinhood的。

Now I actually did read this article, and and I do like Robinhood.

他们不是主角，不是领头的。

They're not they're not like the lead dog here.

这次IPO有18个参与者，他们排第18，就是垫底。

There there's 18 different participants in this IPO and they are 18 out of 18.

但即便如此，现在到了21岁，我们可是亲眼看到了骗局。

But still now at 21, we we we saw the fraud in real time.

对吧？

Right?

就是说，我们没必要去揭旧伤疤，但我们确实看到了。

Like, we don't need to, we don't need to dig at old scabs, but we saw it.

到2026年，你们有没有看到什么明显是欺诈的事情，如果我们站在另一边，会非常明显的？

In 2026, do you guys see anything that's outright fraudulent that if we are on the other side of this is going to be very obvious?

而且，那真的重要吗？

And also, does that even matter?

那是贪婪的必要条件吗？

Is that, like, an absolute necessary ingredient for greed?

你们怎么看？

What do you guys think?

我不知道。

I don't know.

我觉得亨特·拜登那事儿，他们就是在政治上互相攻击对方。

I I feel like the Hunter Biden thing, like, they're kinda just jabbing at the other side, like, politically.

其他的那些事，比如Polymarket、勒布朗·詹姆斯，我不确定那算不算投机欺诈。

The other stuff, like, I don't know, like, Polymarket, LeBron James, I'm not sure if that if I would consider that, like, speculation fraud.

我的意思是，

I mean,

我觉得我只是不是欺诈。

I guess I I'm just not fraud.

这里面没什么欺诈的成分。

There's nothing fraudulent about it.

只是……

It's just

对。

Yeah.

我们处于牛市，这就是牛市的行为。

We're in a bull market and this is bull market behavior.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我觉得这有点太花哨了。

I feel I think it's getting a little cute.

比如，Robinhood做IPO的事情已经有一阵子了。

Like, Robinhood has been doing IPO stuff for a while.

对吧？

Right?

我觉得他们在2022年就开始做IPO相关的事了。

I think they're doing IPO stuff in in 2022.

不是不是，不是这样的。

Not not not not like this.

他们之前只是拿到配额。

They were getting an allocation.

现在他们成了承销团的一部分。

They're now they're now part of the syndicate.

确实。

True.

对。

Yeah.

我一直觉得那些杂志文章，还有试图指出这类事情的做法，对我来说有点太刻意了。

I I I I always find the the magazine article stuff and trying to, like, point to the these types of things is is a little bit cute for me.

这是我的看法。

That's what I think.

图表？

Chart?

对。

Yeah.

我不确定我是不是看到了什么明显的欺诈行为。

I don't know if I'm, like, seeing anything that's just, like, outright fraud.

你知道，比如说，我周末在罗德岛，那里有些体育博彩，这算不算违法呢？

You know, is it illegal for for example, I was in Rhode Island over the weekend.

那里有些体育博彩。

There's some sports betting there.

你不能这么做，但DraftKings会切换他们的界面。

You can't do it, but DraftKings flips their UI.

所以突然间，你开始看到类似投注赔率的东西，但你可以通过DraftKings下注。

So all of a sudden, you start seeing things it like, from the betting odds, but you can bet through DraftKings.

而且不是负一百一十，它会同步到像Polymarket那样的赔率。

And instead of minus one ten, it syncs up with, like, what the odds would be on something like a Polymarket.

所以本质上，你就是在模仿预测市场。

So you're so essentially, like, mimicking the prediction market.

那这算欺诈吗？

And, like, is that fraudulent?

不算。

No.

不算。

No.

不算。

No.

这不算是欺诈，但你知道，确实感觉有点太花哨了。

It's not fraudulent, but, you know, it does feel that it's just getting kinda cute.

也许几年后我们回头看，会看到这些头条新闻，把它们放在图表上，说这可能标志着某种重要的转折点，但那不是我愿意下注的事情。

And can maybe we look back in a few years and we see some of these headlines and we put them on a chart and say that maybe it marked some sort of, like, important turning point maybe, but, like, that wouldn't be something that I would bet on.

好的。

Alright.

我这儿有个欺诈案例。

I've got fraud for you.

我忘了这个。

I forgot this.

Mia Coppell 已经。

Mia Coppell already.

归功于我。

Credit to me.

举手。

Hand up.

最近有一起欺诈案，是在哪个IPO里来着？

There was fraud very recently in the which which IPO?

我想想，是在SpaceX的IPO里。

I I guess in the SpaceX IPO.

这跟SpaceX本身没关系，但有很多SPV套SPV的情况。

Nothing to do with SpaceX on their part, but there was a lot of SPVs on SPVs.

这些就像俄罗斯套娃一样，人们以为自己持有股份，还兴奋地等着改变人生的钱。

These were the Russian egg dolls where people thought they held shares and they were excited for life changing money.

但实际上，他们要么没有股份，要么就是有些乱七八糟的事情。

And in fact, they either didn't or there was just there was some bullshit going on.

所以那真的是欺诈，而且就发生在两个月前。

So that is a that literally is fraud, and that actually just happened two months ago.

那种事情可能只会在巨大的牛市里发生，那时候有超级棒的IPO。

And that pro that type of stuff probably only happens during massive bull markets when there's incredible IPOs happening.

对。

Right.

对。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

那好吧。

So alright.

我们开始吧。

Let's do this.

你知道吗？

You know what?

图表，交给你了。

Chart, take it away.

好的。

Alright.

开始吧。

Here we go.

所以在2025年6月20日，我们做了一期关于TCAF的节目，有我、迈克尔、托德、桑恩和乔什。

So on 06/20/2025, we did an episode on TCAF, with myself, Michael, Todd, Son, and Josh.

迈克尔，你当时说我们正处于苹果的一个绝对关键的转折点。

And, Michael, you said we are at an we are, quote, at an absolutely critical junk juncture for Apple.

那么，约翰，我们能把这个图表放出来吗？

So, John, can we put this chart on?

准备一下。

Setting the table.

我们开始吧。

Here we go.

这是一个比率图，迈克尔，你在之前的播客中分享过，我在那期节目播出时标了一个点。

So this is a ratio chart that, Michael, you had shared during the during the podcast prior, and I put a dot when that episode aired.

这只是在看苹果除以SPY的比率。

And this is just looking at Apple divided by spy.

你的观点是，看这里。

And your point was, look.

我们当时正处在一个非常关键的分界线上，就是说，好吧。

There's a very critical line in the sand that we were at where it said, okay.

苹果要么会崩盘，情况会非常糟糕，要么会涨，我的意思是，我们走着瞧吧。

Apple's either gonna break down, and it's gonna be very bad, or it's gonna be up or I mean, we'll just see.

或者这会是一个反弹点，而事实也正是如此。

Or this is gonna be a rebounding point, and that's exactly what it was.

那确实是个反弹点，你知道，我想这也正好说明了技术分析的重要性。

It was a rebounding point, which, you know, I guess this is also just a marking of the importance of technical analysis.

对吧？

Right?

就像，你看到了一个非常重要的价位，它多次触及那个价位，而且它守住了那条线。

Like, you saw a very important level that it had touched multiple times, and and it held that line.

然后如果你想看下一张图，约翰，好的。

And then if you wanna go to the next chart, John alright.

那么现在这张图显示的是苹果与纳斯达克100指数的相关性。

So now we're this is showing Apple correlation and correlation with the Nasdaq 100.

所以苹果正在变得与其他99只纳斯达克100成分股极度不相关，这可以追溯到2003年。

So Apple's coming becoming extremely uncorrelated with the remaining other 99 Nasdaq 100 stocks, and this is going back to 2003.

这已经是很长一段时间了。

This is a very long time.

等等。

Wait.

不只是不相关。

It's not just uncorrelated.

是负相关。

It's negatively correlated.

完全对。

Complete yeah.

负相关。

Negatively uncorrelated.

所以如果你回头看30年，看看纳斯达克100和苹果的对比，它们做的事情完全相反。

So if you just go back 30 and look at the s look at the Nasdaq one hundred versus Apple, they're doing completely the opposite things.

所以看起来这只是市场选择其他赢家的结果，或者也可能是纳斯达克其他股票表现好，市场在拓宽，但它们确实在朝相反的方向走。

And so it looks like this is just a function of the market picking other winners, or maybe this is a function of the other stocks and the Nasdaq performing well, and it's a function of broadening, but it's, they're quite moving the opposite directions.

这个故事里有很多因素在起作用。

There's a lot of ingredients going on in the story.

你开头展示的那张苹果和SPY的图表，这就是我们尊重技术分析的原因。

And the chart that you opened with for Apple spy, this is why we respect technicals.

任何人看到这张图表都能说，好吧。

Anybody could have looked at this chart and said, alright.

很明显，这里发生了什么事，原因不重要。

Like, clearly, there is something happening here for reasons that don't matter.

但那是关键时刻，市场就这么走了。

But this is that was a critical point in time, and, the market did what it did.

至于现在的情况，Josh很早就看到了这一点，这得归功于他。

As far as what's happening right now today, Josh was early on this, a credit to him.

苹果现在跟当前的消息流完全脱节，尤其是AI主导一切的情况下。

Apple is so divorced from the current news flow as far as AI is everything.

不。

No.

太过分了。

It's too much.

比如，他们是我们之前做这张资本支出图表时唯一提到的公司。

Like, they are the only ones we made this chart earlier showing CapEx spend.

我们做这个可能是一两年前的事了。

And we did this, like, a year or two ago maybe.

资本支出占收入的比例。

CapEx spend as a percent of revenue.

我们当时就说，苹果到底在搞什么？

And we said, what the hell is Apple doing?

蒂姆·库克在想什么？

What is Tim Cook thinking?

他们完全没参与这场竞争。

They're just not in the game at all.

上周乔什还专门讲了为什么蒂姆·库克值得被刻在总统山上。

And Josh made the case last week on why Tim Cook deserves to be in the Mount Rushmore.

也许是因为他做的某些决定，或者说他刻意没做的某些决定，他选择不做某些事，就是为了避免一些情况。

Maybe for some of the things, some of the decisions that he didn't make that he very deliberately not decisions that he didn't make, decisions that he chose, things that he chose not to do deliberately to avoid.

他本来完全可以带着公司走大家都走的路，但他偏偏选了另一条路。

And he could have definitely steered them in this direction of doing what everybody else is doing, but he went the other way.

现在你看，苹果跟它的成分股之间是负相关的。

And now you have it with a negative correlation, negative to its constituents.

而且故事的另一部分是，整个市场的相关性也低得离谱。

And the other part of the story is, the is just the overall market correlation is extraordinarily low.

所以零对冲发了一条推文，说这是高盛的数据。

So zero hedge tweeted, this is from, Goldman.

我们刚刚经历了近期历史上实际相关性最低的时期。

We just traded through the lowest realized correlation period in recent history.

过去二十五年里，我只见过两次这种相关性水平。

In the last twenty five years, only two periods I've seen this correlation before.

而且那两年也不怎么样，不管怎么说，我觉得没什么参考价值，就是2007年和2018年。

And they weren't great, whatever, for whatever it's worth, which is in my opinion is not much, but 2,007 and 2,018.

现在这种情况是不可持续的。

Now this is not sustainable.

肖恩或者查特，你问过，我们会不会看到盈利重新回到那个区间？

Sean or Chart, you asked, like, are we going to see earnings come back into the channel?

人工智能会不会让盈利进入一个新的范式？

Is AI gonna make earnings after a new paradigm?

你知道，随便吧。

You know, whatever.

谁知道呢？

Who who knows?

我确定这种关系是不可持续的。

I know for a fact that this relationship is not sustainable.

但这并不意味着危机要来了或者什么的。

Now it doesn't mean that you're that the crisis coming or anything.

你知道，我不是在暗示那个，但这种情况会改变。

You know, I'm not suggesting that, but this will change.

因为只需要一个风险规避事件，相关性就会飙升到1。

Because all it takes is one risk off event when correlation spike to one.

对吧？

Right?

你们觉得苹果和更广泛的相关性故事是怎么回事？

What do guys think is going on with Apple and the broader correlation story?

我真希望我这里有这张图表。

I wish I had this chart in here.

不好意思。

Excuse me.

我的声音。

My my voice.

天哪。

My god.

没关系。

It's okay.

动量因子和美股七巨头之间的相关性，自MTUM ETF推出以来，一直处于历史最低水平，这挺让人意外的。

Momentum and the MAG seven has been as uncorrelated in history since the MTUM ETF launched, which is kind of wild.

换句话说，七巨头已经不再是动量股了，而这种情况已经持续了很长时间。

So in other words, the Mag seven is no longer momentum, and it had been for a very long time.

嗯，因为MTUM里有多少是……没错。

Well, because how much of of MPUM was Exactly.

最大……

The max

对。

Yeah.

所以我觉得部分原因是，我们正在经历板块轮动，我知道你刚才展示的那张图表，那些日期并不理想，当这些股票彼此不相关的时候。

So I think that's a part of it is, like, we're getting rotation, which I know this the chart that you just laid out is not those dates aren't great when when these stocks aren't aren't correlated with each other.

但我认为这很好。

But I think it's great.

对吧？

Right?

比如医疗保健和其他所有板块，还有能源，都在撑着大盘，而其他板块呢，你知道的，在承受压力。

Like, health care and all of the other sectors, energy are kind of holding us up, holding the index up as these other sectors kind of, you know, feel the pain,

我想是吧。

I guess.

我觉得，我觉得你说得对。

I think I think you're right.

太好了。

It's wonderful.

现在，就此时此刻，我感觉新闻周期，我每周聊的那些东西，变得越来越重复了，我真希望发生点什么。

Right now, at this moment in time, I feel like the the the news cycle, the things that I'm talking about every week, it's getting really repetitive, and I wish something would happen.

这就是2023年以及之前很多年的市场情况，就像，关于Mag seven我没什么好说的了。

That was the but that was the market for 2023 and so many years where it's like, I have nothing else to say about the Mac seven.

我不知道还能做什么。

I don't know what else to do.

所以我觉得这很棒。

So I I think this is great.

马特，你有什么要补充的吗？

Matt, anything for from you?

比如，你能不能展示一下

Like, could you show

这个给我看，如果你不应该的话。

me this if you should no.

我确实有。

I do.

我就是有。

I just do.

你知道吗？

You know?

如果你把这个图表给我看，而我对市场其他情况一无所知。

If you showed me this chart without knowing anything else on what's happening in the market.

对吧？

Right?

这是已实现的相关性图表。

This the realized the realized correlation chart.

嗯。

Mhmm.

听起来指数里有很多股票表现相反，这对我来说很棒。

That sounds like there's a lot of chart there's a lot of stocks within the index that are performing opposite to one another, and that's to me great.

我的意思是，你看到资金从某些板块轮动到其他板块，而且你看到非常刻意的卖出某些板块来买入其他板块。

I mean, you're seeing rotation out of certain areas and into others, and you're seeing, like, very intentional selling of certain pockets to buy others.

没有，

There's no,

比如，是的。

like, this Yes.

我会说这是混乱的刻意卖出，因为人们不知道，因为我们处于如此不确定的环境中，我知道这很老套，但我们确实如此，要么是这篮子要么是那篮子，要么是这篮子要么是那篮子，或者没有软件实际上回来了，对吧？

I would say it's confused intentional selling because people don't know because we're in such a uncertain environment, which I know is cliche, but we really are, that it's either this basket or that basket or this basket or that basket or no software is actually back and right?

就像，新闻动态每天都在变，每周都在变。

Like, the the news flow is changing on a on a a daily and weekly basis.

所以

So

完全同意。

A 100%.

对吧？

Right?

这次的情况和过去几次都不一样，这也意味着，和2007年2月相比，这次可能没有什么参考信号。

The conditions are different this time versus the past ones too, which also means that there's probably no signal in this versus, like, looking back at February 2007.

我同意你的结论。

I agree with your conclusion.

好的。

Alright.

在我们结束这个话题之前，明天是约翰·特尼斯的首次重大亮相。

Before we leave this topic, tomorrow is John Turnis' first big reveal.

我觉得他们要给全世界展示可折叠的iPhone了，之前他们还说，等等。

They are going to be showing the world, I think, the foldable iPhone, which they were saying like, well, hang on.

其实其他公司早就有了，这不算什么新鲜事。

Like, the other companies this is not like a new thing.

三星的可折叠手机早就出了。

Samsung's had the defaultable iPhone forever.

我觉得苹果要做的话，至少我读的文章里是这么说的，他们自己也承认这技术早就有了。

I think in order for Apple to do it, at least this is what I read in the article, in order for them to do that they they acknowledge this technology has been around.

之前做的话成本太高了。

It would have been prohibitively expensive.

好吧。

Alright.

行吧。

Fine.

无所谓了。

Whatever.

这玩意儿还是贵得要命。

It's still fucking expensive.

所以这款新手机首发价会超过两千美元。

So this new phone is going to debut at over $2,000.

不过我还是挺期待的。

I'm excited about it, though.

所以我想问问你们，这款手机会不会扑街，还是说又会成为苹果的又一款爆款？

So I want I wanna ask you guys, is this going to be a flop, or is this going to be yet another smash from Apple?

查特，你在点头。

Chart, you're nodding.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

兄弟，我觉得这招太聪明了。

Dude, I think this is so smart.

我之前写了篇博客，讲的就是现在怀旧情绪在升温，大家好像都想回到过去某个时期，然后模拟的东西也开始火起来了。

I can I so I wrote that blog post about how, like, there's sort of, like, this increase in nostalgia now and, like, going back to a previous period in time and kind of, like, the boom of analog?

我觉得这就是在迎合这个趋势。

And I think that this is a play on that.

我是说，我真的觉得人们就是——打开手机就被Instagram Reel的通知淹没，年轻人还有Snapchat，这真的很让人恶心。

Like, I do think that I think people are just it's nauseating to open up your phone and be inundated with Instagram Reel notifications and for the younger folks, Snapchat.

而且我觉得人们根本不需要一直有个屏幕在面前。

And I think that people just don't need the interface of having a screen in front of you all the time.

所以光是翻开手机这个动作，我觉得很多人都会放弃现在的手机。

And so just the process of folding it open, it's gonna be I think a lot of people are gonna ditch.

我真的觉得这会是一次很棒的产品发布。

I I really do think it's gonna be a great a great product release.

我是说，人们会说要抛弃现在的iPhone，然后转向这个新手机。

Like, I mean, people are gonna say ditch their current iPhones and and show and Switch.

肖恩，你怎么看？

Sean, do you think?

我持相反意见。

I'm gonna go the other way.

我希望它能成功，因为我喜欢苹果，喜欢他们的产品，也喜欢创新。我觉得他们推出新东西很有意思，毕竟感觉好久没见他们出新品了。

I want it to work because I like Apple and I like their products and I like innovation, and I think it's interesting that they're putting something new out, which they haven't done in what feels like a long time.

不过，花两千美元买一部手机，感觉有点贵。

However, $2,000 for a phone feels like a lot.

马特，你之前说过，人们都在尽量减少用手机的时间，但屏幕却越来越大。

Matt, you you said this, but people are trying to be on their phones less, like, with more screen.

我觉得这款手机是给那些在手机上看电影或追剧的人准备的。

I feel like this is for people who are watching movies or shows on their phone.

我也不太确定。

Like, I don't know.

我觉得人们可能不愿意花两千美元买一个他们已经有点厌倦的东西，你懂的。

Like, I feel like people aren't gonna wanna pay $2,000 for something that's just like they they're already getting tired of, you know.

但谁知道呢？

But who knows?

如果是我判断错了，我也乐意接受。

I'd be happy to be wrong.

这件事我真是拿不定主意。

I am firmly on the fence on this one.

我真的两边都能理解。

I really do see both sides.

我真的觉得这有点，拜托。

I I really do see this as like a, come on.

回想一下，你觉得他们能让人花两千美元买手机。

Looking back, like, you thought that they were gonna be able to charge people $2,000 for their phone.

但现在分期付款的方式，人们对花多少钱已经没有限制了。

But the way that it's financed these days, people have no governor anymore on what they pay for.

而且你得给他们，你知道，把你的信用卡给他们。

And it's like you have to give them, you know, give them your credit card.

我的意思是，它就在账单里。

I mean, it's it's it's in the it's in the it's in the bill.

谁会去买那个苹果的VR设备啊。

Like, who would ever buy the the the Apple VR things.

对吧？

Right?

谁会那么做呢？

Like, who would ever do that?

傻瓜。

Morons.

那就是我。

That's me.

我说，傻瓜。

Morons, I say.

对。

Yeah.

你合上手机，它就这样了。

You close the phone, does it whatever.

我们明天就知道了。

I we'll we'll find out tomorrow.

好的。

Okay.

行。

Alright.

我想聊聊这个。

I want to talk about this.

我们和其他人在SpaceX股价110美元的时候，花了很多时间讨论，哎呀，解禁真正发生的时候，股价会跌到多低？

We and others spent a whole lot of time when SpaceX was a $110 saying, uh-oh, how low is it going to go when the unlock actually happens?

而且，说实话，我当时就觉得，这事儿板上钉钉了。

And credit to me, I believe that I was like, it's on the calendar.

谁有卖股票的能力，会在110美元的时候卖呢？他们IPO的时候是150美元，五个小时前还是200美元。

Who has the ability to sell shares is going to sell them at a $110 when they IPO ed at a 150 and it was $200 five hours ago?

对吧？

Right?

谁会就这么抛售呢？

Like, who's just gonna dump?

这个可以理解。

Understand that.

对。

Yeah.

当然。

Sure.

有些人会卖，但也会有买家，还有指数基金参与。

Some people will, but there's also gonna be buyers and there's index funds involved.

那么，Chart，给我们讲讲你做的那个谷歌搜索图表吧。

So, Chart, walk us through the the Google search chart that you made.

好的。

Yes.

那么，John，能不能把那个显示SpaceX搜索兴趣价格的图表调出来？

So, John, could we throw up the chart that shows SpaceX price for search interest?

好的。

Okay.

所以迈克尔今天正好在看谷歌搜索热度，他发现SpaceX的谷歌搜索热度峰值正好对应了SpaceX实际股价的底部。

So Michael was just looking at Google search interest today, and he saw that the the peak in Google search interest for SpaceX correlated to the bottom in the actual SpaceX price.

你现在看到的就是这个。

That's what you're looking at.

所以你看，当股价真正触底的时候，大家对SpaceX的兴趣反而大幅下降了。

So, look, people got a lot less interested in SpaceX at the same time that the actual stock bottomed.

股价从108美元涨到了今天的154美元。

And it went from a $108 to a 154 today.

市场真的很难捉摸，你知道，这又是一个逆向操作成功的例子。

Markets are so difficult, and, you know, this is just another example of taking the other side actually working out.

所以从那以后涨了50%。

So up 50% since then.

你知道好笑的是什么吗，马特？

And you know what's funny, Matt?

请你闭嘴。

Shut up, please.

其实我发给你数据了。

I actually so I sent you the data.

我放进搜索历史或者谷歌搜索的那个东西，图表完全一样。

The the thing that I put into the search history or into Google search, and it's the exact same chart.

我搜的是SpaceX解禁。

I put in SpaceX unlock.

但形状一模一样。

But it it's the it's the exact same shape.

这就是所有人都在谈论的事情。

This is all that anybody was talking about.

所以我们有了解禁，而且是分批解禁，后面还会有更多。

So, we had the unlock, and it's a staggered unlock, and there's gonna be more coming.

但我觉得大概是9亿股。

But I think it was, like, 900,000,000 share.

我是说，数量很大。

I mean, it was a lot.

那真是大量股票涌入了市场。

It was a lot that came to market.

你猜怎么着？

And guess what?

市场居然完全消化了。

The market freaking absorbed it.

然后我们就继续往前走了。

And we just moved on.

我还没看到有人说，嘿。

I haven't seen anybody say, hey.

那些担忧、那些文章、我们花在讨论解锁上的所有时间，那其实就是底部。

All those fears, all those articles, all that time that we spent talking about the unlock, the unlock, that was the bottom.

市场就是这么有趣。

Funny how markets work.

好了。

Alright.

所以，我们的朋友戴夫和纳迪亚转发了一篇彭博社的文章。

So Nadia Dave our friend Dave and Nadia tweeted an article from from Bloomberg.

文章基本上是说，目前SpaceX的权重是1.25%。

And, it's basically saying that the the weighting of SpaceX right now is one and a quarter percent.

那条推文先放一边，稍等一下。

That's the 90 tweet off for one second.

让我先把这个背景说一下。

Let me just set this up.

我知道，光看那条推文可能不太好理解。

I know it's hard to, like, read the tweet.

听我讲。

We listen to me.

好。

Alright.

所以，SpaceX在纳斯达克的权重是1.25%，排在第19位，尽管它的市值是全球第六，达到2万亿美元。彭博社说，在重新平衡之后，这个权重可能会达到1.5%。

So it was 1.25% of the Nasdaq, which was the nineteenth biggest weighting despite the fact that it had the sixth largest market cap in the world at $2,000,000,000,000 So Bloomberg is saying that the weighting can hit 1.5% after the rebalance.

现在有个重新平衡，会带来更多的买入压力。

Now there's a rebalance that's going to bring on more buying pressure.

所以也许部分解禁被指数重新平衡吸收了。

So maybe some of the unlock is being soaked up by the index rebalance.

好的。

Okay.

回到戴夫的推文。

Back to Dave's tweet.

戴夫说，文章忽略了纳斯达克专门为这次事件改写规则。

So Dave said, while the article ignores that the Nasdaq rewrote the rules just for this event.

好的。

Okay.

值得注意的是，SpaceX 的锁定期恰逢大量、大量的买入订单，因为它们的权重增加了。

Worth noting that the SpaceX lockup coincides with a massive, massive, queues and related buy order as their weighting increases.

但底线是这样的。

But the bottom line is this.

戴夫说，祝你好运，能在几周内搞清楚供应是否大于需求。

Dave said good luck figuring out whether supply is more than demand in a few weeks.

对。

Yeah.

所以，我的看法是，这里存在已知风险，也有未知风险。

So, like, I my take here is, like, there are, like, known risks as in there's unknown risks.

而一旦我们都知道了这些已知风险，它们就已经被市场消化了。

And the known risks are priced in the second that we all we all know them.

比日历上显示的还要多。

More than on the calendar.

对。

Yeah.

日历上确实有。

It's on the calendar.

但那是另一回事。

It's a different thing.

这在招股说明书里。

It's in the prospectus.

你可以去读一读。

You can go and read it.

这已经被市场消化了。

It's already priced in.

所以，那些已经被定价的信息，怎么可能改变呢？

And so it's like, how can that information that's priced in, how can that information change?

那才会对股价产生影响。

And that will move the needle on the stock.

比如，如果我们都预期苹果明天会发布一个很棒的消息，而他们确实发布了很棒的消息，这对股价其实没什么影响。

Like, if we all expect Apple to have a really great announcement tomorrow and they have a great announcement, it doesn't really matter for the stock price.

但如果他们稍微低于预期，那就有影响了。

But if they under deliver just slightly, then it matters.

所以这里的问题是，我们今天知道的这些实际消息和信息，在未来几个月里会怎么变化？

And it's like here, like, how is the actual news that an information that we know today going to change over the next few months?

我觉得戴夫的意思是，这些信息我们都已经知道了。

I think Dave's point is like, we we know this information.

而且还有更多的股票等着解禁。

And there's still more shares to be unlocked.

迈克尔，我记得你放过一张彭博的图表，上面显示还有几十亿股没解禁，而股价已经接近IPO时的最高点了。

Michael, I think you put in a chart of Bloomberg that there's, like, billions of shares left to be unlocked and the price is near its IPO high.

所以在我看来，我真的很困惑，你怎么会觉得这是信号呢。

So in my mind, like, I'm I'm just in a blender as to how, like, how you could ever think that this is signal.

对我来说，这完全就是噪音。

Like, this is just all noise to me.

我真的觉得这是……

I I really do think it's

那我现在倒是要站在对立面了。

So I actually will take the other side of that at this point.

好。

Okay.