与埃德·亚尔代尼一起展望咆哮的2020年代

我确实没接到那种电话。

I did not get the phone calls.

说实话，有好几次我都主动提出，我可以按美联储一半的费用来提供同样的服务。

As a matter of fact, in writing a few times, I've offered to do what the Fed does for half the price.

没人接招吗？

No takers on that?

有人愿意啊。

Takers.

说实话，我还有点不爽，自己居然没进美联储主席的候选短名单。

And I I I was kind of annoyed that I wasn't on that short list of possible Fed, chairs.

不过话说回来，我一直觉得美联储降息降错了，因为经济很有韧性，通胀也没降到2%。

But, then again, I I've been saying that the Fed was wrong to lower interest rates because the economy is resilient and inflation is not at 2%.

那你当时肯定没戏了。

Well, you were definitely not getting the job then.

那当然，确实没戏。

Then I definitely yeah.

我……我是想让你心里好受点吗？

I was I was To make you feel better?

我……

I

其实我觉得那根本就不是什么候选名单。

don't actually think it was a shortlist.

我觉得特朗普他们就是喜欢真人秀那一套。

I think the Trumps love a reality show.

是的。

Yeah.

他们特别喜欢把瑞克·里德和这些人拉出来炫耀。

And they loved parading Rick Reeder and all these people.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

但这个人选一直都会是这个孩子，因为他对他来说就像家人一样。

But it was always gonna be this kid because this kid is like family to him.

对。

Yeah.

因为他是唐纳德·特朗普最好的朋友罗恩·劳德的孩子的……

Because he But it's a kid to Donald Donald Trump's best friend is Ron Lauder.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他是罗恩·劳德的……

He's Ron Lauder's

对。

Yeah.

女婿。

Son-in-law.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

这个嘛

This was it was

永远都不会是你或其他人。

never gonna be you or anyone else.

对。

Yeah.

一直都是这个。

Was always gonna be this.

好。

Okay.

我们待会儿要聊美联储的事情。

We're gonna talk Fed stuff in a little while.

我想谈谈，我觉得，你做过的最精彩的预测之一。

I wanna get to, I think, one of the best calls you've ever made.

我听了那个预测，也认真思考过，我觉得自己因此受益匪浅。

And I listened to it, I heated it, and I think I'm benefiting as a result of it.

你当时在谈论“咆哮的2020年代”，我想那是在疫情之前。

You were talking about the Roaring 2020s, I think before the pandemic.

实际上，是2020年8月。

Actually, August 2020.

所以

So

好的。

Okay.

所以就在

So right

刚开始的时候，对。

at the beginning yeah.

刚封锁完，当时大家显然都很焦虑，不知道接下来会发生什么。

Right after the lockdowns and, there there was a lot of angst obviously about, what was gonna happen.

但我想指出，如果你回头看二十年代，那之前的几年

But, I tried to point out that if you look back at the nineteen twenties, a few years before that

西班牙流感。

Spanish flu.

西班牙流感。

Spanish flu.

再往前几年，还有第一次世界大战，当时他们这么叫。

And a a couple years before that, we had world war the the great war, they called it back then.

事实上，1920年，他们经历了一次当时所谓的萧条。

And as a matter of fact, in 1920, they had what they called the depression back then.

所以如果你在1920年预测二十年代，说这将是咆哮的二十年代，别人会觉得你疯了。

And so if if if you were, forecasting the nineteen twenties in 1920 and said, this is gonna be the roaring, nineteen twenties, you would have been looked as delusional.

他们在20年和21年经历了衰退还是萧条？

They had a recession in '20 and '21 or a depression?

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Right.

1920年。

1920.

好的。

Okay.

对。

Yeah.

而这一次，我们其实并没有真正经历经济衰退。

And and this time around, we had a we didn't really have a recession.

只是两个月的封锁。

It was a two two month lockdown.

我一直押注经济的韧性。

And I kept betting on the resilience of the economy.

事实上，在这个十年初期，我一直在说，你知道吗？

As a matter of fact, early on in the decade, I kept saying that, you know what?

我觉得我们正在经历有史以来最被广泛预期的衰退，但它就是不会发生。

I think we're experiencing the most widely anticipated recession of all times that just ain't gonna happen.

我称之为“等待戈多式”的衰退。

It's I call it the Godot recession.

所以我是经济的忠实粉丝。

And so I was a big fan of the economy.

我有许多理由相信，经济即使有衰退，也只会是局部性的，而不会是全经济范围的衰退。

I had lots of reasons for believing that the economy would, if anything, experience rolling recessions, but not an economy wide recession.

所以，这招奏效了。

So, it worked.

在2020年代，类比一下，在2020年代，你有广播，还有1920年代。

In the 2020s, the analog is in the 2020s, you had radio and you had 1920s.

1920年代。

1920s.

那时候有收音机，还有流水线、制造业和汽车，显然这些是当时的技术。

You had radio and you had the assembly lines, manufacturing, automobiles, obviously A

还有很多新技术。

lot of technology.

没错。

Right.

所以在那个时期，那些就是当时的主流技术。

So in that time, that was the technology of the day.

没错。

Correct.

生活水平提高了，大家心情都不错，那就是所谓的咆哮的二十年代，对吧？

And it increased standards of living and people were feeling good and it was the roaring Okay.

二十世纪二十年代。

1920s.

所以站在2026年的安全视角来看，我们都可以说，是啊。

So right now from the safety of 2026, we could all say, oh, yeah.

当然，2020年代的繁荣景象。

Of course, the roaring 2020s.

我们有人工智能。

We have AI.

对。

Mhmm.

但你说过，在2020年8月的时候，你根本不可能知道ChatGPT的存在或者任何相关的进展。

But you said that in August 2020, you could not have known about the existence of ChatGPT or any steps.

我列了一些当时已经存在的科技。

I made a list of, some of the technologies that were already existing.

比如机器人和自动化、人形机器人，还有云计算。

So obviously robotics and automation, humanoid robotics Cloud computing.

纳米技术、云计算，诸如此类的东西。

Nanotechnology, cloud computing, all that stuff.

对。

Yeah.

我当时提到了AI，但我没有预料到。

And I said an AI, but I no.

我没有预料到2022年11月ChatGPT会让大家都对这项新技术感到兴奋。

I didn't anticipate that in November 2022, ChatGPT would kind of get everybody excited about this this new technology.

让我就这一点说几句。

Let let me just say something about that.

那就是，请听我说。

And that is Please.

在我看来，AI是渐进发展的。

In my mind, AI is evolutionary.

是渐进，不是革命。

Evolutionary, not revolutionary.

真正的革命是我所说的数字革命，它始于20世纪60年代中期，以IBM大型机为标志。

The revolution is what I call the digital revolution, and it started in the mid nineteen sixties with the IBM mainframe.

那场数字革命的核心就是尽可能快速、廉价地处理越来越多的信息。

And the whole point of that digital revolution is to process more and more information as quickly as possible, as cheaply as possible.

从六十年代中期到现在，我们已经走了很长的路。

We've come a long way since the mid 1960s.

对。

Right.

而人工智能就是那场革命的一部分，是其中的一部分。

And AI is part of that revolution, part of it.

好的。

Okay.

所以你不认为这是……我是说，我觉得你认为这是变革性的，但你认为它更像是在互联网1.0、2.0之上的迭代。

So you don't see this as being I mean, I think you see it as being transformational, but you see it as more iterative on top of Internet one point o, two point o.

从大型机一直追溯到大型计算机。

Mainframe all the way back to mainframe computers.

我的意思是，当时是革命性的。

I mean, was revolutionary at the time.

我认为人工智能所做的是让我们意识到，我们坐拥大量数据，却没有充分利用，也没有真正理解我们能从中学习到什么。

I I think what AI has done is it got us to the point where we realize we're sitting on a lot of data that we're not taking advantage of and really understanding what we could learn from that.

所以，你知道，作为经济学家，我学到的就是，生产要素有三种：土地、劳动力和资本，而且它们都是稀缺的，经济学家的任务就是想办法用这些稀缺资源来最大化每个人的幸福。

So, you know, as an economist, I was taught that, there's three factors of production, land, labor, and capital, and that they're all kinda scarce and that it's an economist's job to figure out how to optimize everybody's happiness with the scarce resources.

数据永远不会短缺。

There's no there'll never be a shortage of data.

对。

Yeah.

所以，在我看来，数据就是第四种生产要素。

So and data is the fourth factor of production is the way I look at it.

我们每个月创造的数据比过去世界上存在过的所有数据还要多。

We're creating more data every month than has ever existed in the world before.

没错。

That's correct.

差不多就是这么夸张。

Something crazy like that.

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

讽刺的是，如果在2020年8月有人听了你的话，我们可能正在迎接一个繁荣的20年代。

What's what's ironic is if somebody woulda, in August 2020, taken what you said, we could be setting up for a roaring 2020s.

想想看，什么是革命性的技术？

Think about like what's the revolutionary technology?

可能他们会谈论区块链。

The probably would've been talking about blockchains.

不。

No.

我是说，区块

I mean, block

也许太空有点？

Maybe space a little bit?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得，你知道，区块链在稳定币这类东西上肯定有它的作用，而且这很可能会在很多方面彻底改变金融业。

I think, you know, blockchain obviously has a role in things like stablecoin, and that's probably gonna revolutionize, finance, in in many ways.

所以区块链只是另一种技术，你可以把它加进去，然后说，嘿，把所有可能让这十年变得繁荣的技术列个清单，区块链绝对可以加进去。

So blockchain is just another technology that, you can kinda throw in and say, here you know, make a list of all the technologies that could make this the roaring 2020s, and you could add that to to that list for sure.

迈克尔和我当时在跟人辩论，一场友好的辩论。

Michael and I were debating somebody, good natured debate.

在2022年，真的感觉经济要掉下悬崖了，股市也……嗯。

In 2022, it really felt like the economy was headed off a cliff and the stock market Mhmm.

股市在提前反应这个。

Was front running that.

科技股跌得很惨。

Tech was down huge.

对。

Correct.

所有大公司。

All the biggest companies.

然后突然之间，11月30日，ChatGPT发布了。

And then all of a sudden, on November 30, ChatGPT is released.

到12月15日，嗯。

By December 15 Mhmm.

推特上所有人都在聊这个。

It's all anyone is talking about on Twitter.

对。

Yeah.

是的。

Yep.

然后这就像开启了一个全新的牛市，对最成熟的科技公司来说，还有一大批全新的初创公司。

And it sort of just kickstarts this brand new bull market for the most established tech companies and then a whole slate of brand new startups.

当然。

Sure.

好的。

Okay.

有人说，我们本来预计会有经济衰退，但这次人工智能的突然崛起，就像救场一样，这种事不是经常发生的。

Somebody was like saying, well, we were supposed to have a recession, but then this like, almost like the kick save of AI isn't what happens all the time.

这些创新浪潮是不可预测的，这就是为什么你保持乐观。

These innovation waves are unpredictable, which is why you stay bullish.

完全正确。

Absolutely.

嗯，你不需要预测它是什么。

Well, you don't have to anticipate what it is.

你只需要认识到，美式资本主义促进了这类事情的发生。

You just have to recognize that American style capitalism facilitates these types of things

完全正确。

Absolutely.

突然冒出来。

Springing out of nowhere.

而且它正在蓬勃发展。是的。

And it's absolutely flourishing Yeah.

在很多方面都是如此。

In in all sorts of ways.

我觉得，如果我可以这么说的话，美国例外主义的一个关键因素就是我们的资本市场。

I think one of the things that, if I may say so, makes America exceptionalism is in fact our capital markets.

有太多的资金在追逐好的创意和坏的创意。

There's so much money, chasing good IDs and bad IDs.

而好的创意最终对我们所有人都有利，因为它们创造了可以销售的商品和服务。

And, the good IDs turn out to be very beneficial for all of us because they're creating goods and services that, can be sold.

然后企业家们也因此受益。

And then the entrepreneurs gets get benefited from that.

那么，咆哮的二十年代会一直持续到

Does the roaring does the roaring 2020s run through the end of

这个十年结束吗？

the decade?

嗯，我们已经进入这个十年第七年了。

Well, we're in the seventh year of it.

你知道吗？

You know?

大家都以为是六年，但你掰着手指头数数看。

Everybody thinks it's it's six, but, you know, put it cut count it on your fingers.

对。

Yeah.

其实我们现在已经进入第七年了。

And we're actually in the seventh year.

所以从

So above

2020年。

2020.

对。

Yeah.

咱们熬过这段时间吧。

Let's get through this.

然后我觉得到2029年底，也就是这个十年结束的时候，我们不会出现经济衰退。

And then I think by the end of, 2029, which will be the end of the decade, I think we will not have a recession.

我预计标普500指数到本十年末会达到10000点。

I have the S and P 500 at 10,000 by by the end of the decade.

你说本十年结束前不会出现经济衰退？

No recession before the end of the decade, you said?

本十年结束前不会出现经济衰退。

No recession before the end

对，本十年结束前。

of the decade.

我其实只是想指出，到目前为止经济表现得多有韧性。

And and all I'm doing is, taking a pointing out that look how resilient the economy has been so far.

我们经历了疫情封锁。

We hit it with a pandemic lockdowns.

然后出现了购买热潮，结果撞上了供应中断。

Then we had a buying boom that ran smack dab into supply disruptions.

通胀飙升了。

Inflation surged.

美联储从零利率加到了5.5%。

The Fed went from zero to 5.5%.

所以大家都以为会衰退。

That's why everybody thought there was gonna be a recession.

美联储这么紧缩，怎么可能不衰退呢？

So how could you not have a recession with the Fed tightening like that?

然后2023年还来了个迷你版的金融危机，就一个周末的事。

And then we had a mini, mini you know, basically a weekend financial crisis in 2023.

接着特朗普搞关税，又有战争，然后又加关税。

And then Trump comes along with tariffs, then there's the war, and there's tariffs again.

但现在实际GDP却创了历史新高。

And here, real GDP is an all time record high.

我们给股市施加了这么多压力。

We've thrown a lot at this stock market.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我是说，这真的太不寻常了。

I mean, it's it's it's been extraordinary.

我们上一次真正的经济衰退还是在2008、2009年。

And the last serious the last recession we had was in 2008, 2009.

不是那次两个月的封锁式衰退。

It it wasn't that two month lock lockdown recession.

而且你知道，衰退其实不常发生。

And bear you know, recessions don't happen that much.

感觉发生得越来越少了。

They seem to be happening less.

所以相应地，熊市也不常出现。

And bear markets don't as a result, bear markets don't happen that much.

你说得对。

You're you're right.

2022年是少有的熊市之一，没有伴随经济衰退。

2022 was one of the rare bear markets that hadn't that did not have a recession.

我觉得如果不是因为AI的爆发，22年可能会引发更糟糕的情况。

I think if not for the AI explosion, it's possible that '22 led to something worse.

我当时也是这么想的。

That my that was my opinion.

事实上，我记得那是在十月底或十一月初。

As a matter of fact, I do remember if it was late October, early November.

我当时说，我其实认为底部在六月就形成了，然后我们有点重新测试，稍微跌破了。

I said, I actually thought the bottom was made in June, and we kinda retested it, made it a little came down below.

我说，我觉得那是十一月初。

And I said, I I think it was early November.

我说，我认为那就是最低点。

I said, I think that's the low.

原因就是，你知道，我看的是前瞻盈利。

And the reason is because I, you know, I look at, forward earnings.

前瞻盈利，也就是分析师对盈利的预期，在2022年确实略有下降，但绝对没有大幅下滑。

And forward earnings, which is analyst expectations for earnings, dipped a little bit in 2022, but they certainly weren't falling falling off.

公司仍然表示业务还行。

Companies were still saying business is okay.

那我们马上要聊到现代市场了。

So we're gonna get to modern markets in a second.

但在那之前，我提到过我们为你准备了一张图表。

But before we do, I mentioned that we had made a chart for you.

它就在你的网站上，yourdenny.com。

You have on your website at yourdenny.com.

网址是yourdenny.com/marketcalls。

It's yourdenny.com/marketcalls.

这是多年来的持续记录，记录了你说的所有内容，无论是在CNBC、彭博、巴伦周刊，还是任何你接受采访的时候，就像标题那样。

And this is a running record going back years of all of the things that you've said, either CNBC, Bloomberg, Barron's, anytime that you're interviewed, Just like the headline.

对的。

Mhmm.

而且这些标题并不是你能挑的。

Which and you don't get to pick these headlines.

编辑们决定怎么取标题，但意思差不多。

The editors pick how they're how they're gonna but it's close enough.

对吧？

Right?

是啊。

Yeah.

看看我们为你做的。

Look what we made for you.

你觉得酷不酷？

Tell me if you think that's cool.

哇哦。

Wow.

这太酷了。

That is cool.

这些都是你的电话。

These are all of your calls.

红色的是你比较谨慎的时候。

The red ones are where you're a little bit cautious.

蓝色的，我想，就是你的评论，他们把它变成了头条新闻。

The blue ones are just, I guess, your your your commentary that they turn into headlines.

而且这可以追溯到2009年。

And this goes back to 2009.

而且，说实话，你基本上几乎一直看涨，几乎整个时间都是这样。

And to your credit, you've basically been overall bullish almost the entire time Mhmm.

自从市场出现历史性低点以来。

Since the market had its generational low.

你确实没有被关税吓跑。

You really didn't get shaken out by tariffs.

你没有因为，哦，不，而动摇。

You didn't get you didn't get shaken out by, oh, no.

现在又是奥密克戎，或者像病毒会怎样，你一直都很稳定。

Now it's Omicron or, like, the virus is gonna like, you you kinda were steady through that.

是的。

Yep.

我觉得这很值得称赞。

I I just I think it's I think it's commendable.

我觉得这很了不起。

I think it's remarkable.

而且，谢谢你。

And Thank you.

谢谢你。

Thank you.

这对那些听你节目、忽略其他声音的人来说，显然非常有帮助。

It's been really helpful, obviously, to people that are listening to you and tuning out a lot of other voices.

而且你非常关注盈利增长。

And you focus on earnings growth so much.

是的。

Yeah.

这里有多少笔交易？

Here's How many deals?

所以当你看这个，你讨论各种可能发生的情景。

So when you look at this and you look, you're talking about all types of scenarios, things that could happen.

但从大局来看，盈利是投资者最好的指路明灯吗？

But in the big picture, are earnings the best north star for investors?

不是为了把握市场时机，而是为了确信有理由继续持有？

Not to time the market, but to just feel confident that there's a reason to stay stay put?

嗯，我认为归根结底，这取决于人们对经济状况的看法，因为经济……

Well, I think at the end of the day, it's, the perception of what what the economy is doing because the economy

比盈利更重要。

More than earnings.

嗯，经济是盈利背后的基本面。

Well, the economy is is is the the fundamentals behind the earnings.

所以如果你对经济做了功课，而且经济看起来在风风雨雨中还挺得住，那你基本可以断定盈利也会这样。

And so if if you do your homework on the economy and the economy looks like it's hanging in there pretty well through thick thick and thin, then you can pretty much conclude that earnings are doing so.

我确实会看分析师的共识预期，也就是所谓的远期盈利，这是今年和明年预期的加权平均值。

I do I do look at analyst consensus expectations, something called forward earnings, which is time weighted average of this year and next year's expectations.

而且分析师在预测盈利方面确实做得很好，但有一个相当重要的例外。

And analysts actually do a very good job of predicting earnings with one rather important exception.

他们看不到经济衰退的到来。

They don't see recessions coming.

所以这就是我的工作。

And so that's my job.

而且，你知道，如果你同意我的看法，认为到本十年末都不会有经济衰退，那么分析师的共识预测——我称之为FEMO，即极好的盈利势头。

And, you know, if you agree with me that there's no recession, through the end of the decade, then analyst consensus forecasts, which are I call them FEMO, fabulous earnings momentum.

这就是他们看到的，也是他们预期的。

That's what they're seeing, and that's what they're expecting.

那我觉得我们的情况相当不错。

Then I think we're in in pretty good shape.

不过，是的，我认为盈利是关键，而且我对估值倍数有自己的看法。

But, yeah, I I think earnings is is a key, and I do have my opinion on valuation multiples.

那么，是不是盈利太多了？

So is there too much earnings?

我们是不是在提前透支？

Are we pulling forward?

这是不是最好的情况了？

Is this as good as it gets?

对。

Yeah.

盈利，你能回答一下是否存在盈利泡沫吗？

Earning can you answer the is there an earnings bubble?

嗯，这个问题问得很好，是的。

Well, that's a very good yeah.

那时候的盈利真是非理性繁荣。

Irrational exuberance in in earnings those times.

对。

Yeah.

所以我才提出了FIMO，就是“惊人的盈利动能”。

That's that's why I came up with FIMO, fabulous earnings momentum.

这就是

That's the

不是

Not the

预期。

estimates.

另一种可能是

The alternative is

结果。

The result.

不，不。

No, no.

实际上——

The actual-

我要

I'm gonna

问你，结果。

ask you, the results.

空头们转变了立场。

The bears pivoted.

2024年，他们说那全是市盈率倍数扩张。

In 2024, they said it's all PE multiple expansion.

他们说得对，因为七大科技股被重新估值了。对。

And they were right because the Mag seven were getting rerated Yeah.

但今年不是这样。

That's not this year.

今年这个季度盈利增长了28.8%，简直离谱。

This year, it's 28.8% earnings growth this quarter, which is absurd.

我们是在提前预支吗？

We pulling forward?

这还不包括其他收入，比如Alpha的，还有亚马逊的，对，那些实打实的收入。

That's not including the other income that Alpha- Forgetting about the Amazon- Yeah, the real stuff.

先不提Anthropic的那些账面收益，

Forgetting about the anthropic write ups and

还有那些。

all that.

营业利润。

Operating earnings.

对，营业利润。

Yeah, operating earnings.

好的。

Okay.

那我们今年是不是盈利过多了？

So are we over earning this year?

我们是不是把两年后的盈利提前算到这个季度了？

Are we pulling forward earnings from two years from now into this quarter?

这是盈利泡沫吗？

Is it an earnings bubble?

所以他们不说股市泡沫，因为盈利增长这么强劲，没法说。

So they're not saying stock bubble because you can't with earnings growth like this.

所以他们说盈利泡沫。

So they're saying earnings bubble.

你怎么看？

What do you think about that?

嗯，你知道，盈利的计算很简单，就是收入乘以利润率。

Well, you know, earnings is the arithmetic of earnings is real simple, and that's revenues times the profit margin.

而且，收入表现不错。

And, revenues are doing fine.

即使中东有战争，世界上还有其他各种疯狂的事情，前瞻收入还是创了历史新高。

Even with the war in The Middle East, and all the other crazy stuff around the world, forward revenues are an all time record high.

分析师们不断看到公司报告的收入越来越好。

Analysts keep seeing that companies are reporting better and better revenues.

同时，利润率也在不断上升。

And at the same time, the profit margin keeps going up.

它正在进入创纪录的高位区域。

It's going up into record high territories.

我们现在有15%的利润率吗？

We have 15% profit margins now?

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

这太惊人了。

It's it's it's huge.

这是不是那个

Is this the thing the

空头们最忽略的就是利润。

bears missed the most that They missed profit.

利润率实际上并不需要回归到1985年的水平，对吧？

Profit margins would not in fact have to mean revert back to nineteen eighty five levels?

嗯，现在其实有上升趋势了。

Well, they actually have an upward trend now.

你知道吗？

You know?

他们之前看的是过去几年的历史。

They they kinda looked at the history be be before the past several years.

在过去几年里，我们确实看到利润率呈上升趋势。

In the past several years, we actually have seen an upward trend in the profit margin.

部分原因是标普500的信息技术和通信服务现在占标普500的45%。

Part of that is because S and P 500 information technology and communication services now account for 45% of the S and P 500.

而这些公司往往利润率很高，因为它们在创造性破坏方面做得比谁都好。

And those companies tend to high have high profit margins because they they do, creative destruction better than anybody else.

它们总是在创造新产品。

They're always creating new product.

当你把新产品推向市场时，利润率可以很高，但它们知道这不会持续太久。

And when you bring in a new product to the market, you can have a high margin on that, but they know it's gonna collapse.

它们也知道必须不断推出下一个创新。

And they know that they've gotta come up with the next innovation.

所以，简单来说，我不认为我们在透支未来的收益。

So, yeah, the short answer is I I I don't think that we're taking earnings away from from from the future.

我觉得我们是在这些公司的生产力基础上继续发展。

I I think, we're kinda building on the the the productivity of these companies.

你看，

Look.

我觉得AI迫使很多公司做的事情就是，好吧，

I I think what AI forced a lot of companies to do is say, okay.

停一下。

Stop the music.

我们不再招人了。

We're not hiring anymore.

我们也不再裁员了。

We're not firing anymore.

我想对公司进行一次彻底的调查。

I want an up and down investigation of our company.

哪里最能有效地使用AI？

Where can we use AI most effectively?

哪些部门可以关掉？

What departments can we shut down?

对。

Yeah.

那是一次非常重要的行动，因为有些部门觉得AI在这里根本用不上。

And that was a hugely, important exercise because in some departments, it's like, well, we really AI is irrelevant here.

他们做得很好。

They're doing a good job.

那就留着他们吧。

Let's keep them.

或者AI在这里无关紧要，而他们也无关紧要。

Or AI is irrelevant here, and they're irrelevant.

那我们还留着他们干嘛？

So why do we even bother keeping them?

所以我觉得AI确实导致了很多裁员，但我也认为AI已经并且将继续提高公司的生产力。

So I think there's been a lot of cleaning house as a result of AI, but I think AI is is also already and will continue to increase productivity of companies.

这一点我们从利润率上就能看出来。

And that and we're seeing that in profit margins.

所以当你听到有人说，之所以存在盈利泡沫，是因为大家都在提前透支未来的需求，囤积GPU，因为他们觉得一年后价格会更高，囤积算力，囤积内存芯片。

So when you hear people say things like everybody the the reason it's an earnings bubble is because everybody is getting ahead of their future demand, stockpiling GPUs because they think the prices will be higher in a year, stockpiling compute, stockpiling memory chips.

对。

Mhmm.

他们把整个供应都买断了。

They're buying out the whole supply.

所以他们是在提前消费。

Therefore, they're pulling forward.

而且两年后，这些推动标普盈利的组件需求肯定不可能还这么高，对吧？

And there's just no way two years from now, there will be the same level of demand for these components that are driving the S and P's earnings higher based on how big tech is?

嗯，我从超大规模数据中心那里得到的感觉是，管理层希望现在能有更多算力，因为如果有的话，他们现在就能赚更多钱。

Well, the vibes I get out of the hyperscalers, the managements wish they had more compute today because they could make a lot more money today if if they had it.

而且我觉得我们有过几次这样的情况，比如埃隆的算力过剩，他就直接租出去了。

And then we've had a couple of episodes, I think, where Elon had more compute than he he needed, he just rented it.

所以，你知道，这是一个流动性很强的市场。

So, you know, it's it's it's a very liquid market.

这是一个竞争非常激烈的市场。

It's a very it's it's it's a very competitive market.

但我觉得重点是，超大规模数据中心明年预计要在资本支出上花费一万亿美元，不管怎样，是的。

I think the point is though that the hyperscalers are gonna spend an estimated trillion dollars next year on CapEx, whatever it Yeah.

这些钱最终会进入某些公司的利润。

And that's going to somebody's bottom line.

没错。

Correct.

但到了2029年、2030年，他们就不会再这么做了。

They're not gonna be doing that in 2029, 2030.

谁知道呢？

Now who knows?

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

谷歌，我记得谷歌刚刚发行了250亿美元的债券。

Google I think Google just raised $25,000,000,000 worth of debt.

而市场需求大概有1000多亿美元。

And there was like a 100 something billion dollars worth of demand.

对。

Right.

他们显然还在花钱，但总有一天你会觉得这笔支出会回落的。

They're still spending obviously, but at some point that spending you would think is going to come back.

我不能说不会。

I can't say that it won't.

我是说，这是有可能的。

I mean, it's conceivable.

但我觉得，数字革命反过来又是技术革命的一部分。

But I I think I think we that in a the digital revolution in turn is part of the technology revolution.

未来已经近在眼前了。

And the future's kinda here.

我的意思是，我们已经在谈论2030年和2040年世界会是什么样子了。

I mean, we're already talking about 2030 and 2040 and what the world's gonna look like.

我觉得这让大家都很头疼。

And I I think it's it's making everybody's head spin.

我们真的不知道。

We really don't know.

我们大致知道AI总体上是个很赚钱的生意，但不知道谁会真正赚到钱，谁会倒闭。

We we we have a good idea that AI is a very profitable business, on balance, but we don't know who's actually gonna make the money and who's gonna go out of business.

有人说，这就像七八十年代的科幻电影。没错。

Somebody somebody said it's all the sci fi movies from the seventies and eighties Exactly.

我们小时候看的那些

That we grew

电影里的东西

up with are

现在都变成产品了。

are now being productized.

比如无人机作战、机器人，什么都有。

So drone warfare, robots Everything.

人形机器人，对。

Humanoid robots Yeah.

太空，对。

Space Yeah.

卫星。

Satellites.

当然。

Sure.

我不知道。

I don't know.

他们在研究传送吗？

Are they working on teleportation?

可能有人在研究。

Somebody probably is.

所以这就是

So it's

让我震惊。

Beat me up.

但这就是为什么你说令人眼花缭乱。

But that's why it's so you said dizzying.

这就是为什么这么让人摸不着头脑，因为这些是我们从小看到大的科幻桥段。

That's what it's so disorienting because these are the sci fi tropes that we all grew up with

对。

Yeah.

从《星际迷航》到《星球大战》。

From Star Trek, Star Wars.

就像，现在我们真的看到这些东西

Like, now we're actually seeing these things

出现在现实里。

in the wild.

让我稍微岔开一下话题，我之前提到过，经济学家是怎么被训练来思考经济的。

Let me just take a slight diversion here, and that is I mentioned before, how economists are trained to think about the economy.

三种稀缺资源，或者说稀缺资源，他们的工作就是优化这些东西，从而促进繁荣。

Three scarce resources or scarce resources, and it's their job to optimize these things so that increases prosperity.

这在萨缪尔森的书里就有。

That is in Samuelson.

这在经济学入门课程里就有。

It's in in economics one zero one.

他们就是这么教的。

That's the way they teach it.

而且这很悲观。

And it's very pessimistic.

很让人沮丧，因为就像是在说，什么？

It's very depressing because it's like, what?

资源就这么多，我们都得靠市场来解决。

There's only so much, and we all have to figure out the market figures out.

有些人希望由市场来决定。

Some people want the market to figure out.

另一些人则希望由社会主义者来决定。

Other people want this the socialists to figure out.

那个说大家都会饿死的人是谁来着？

Who's the guy that said everyone was gonna starve?

马尔萨斯。

Malthus.

对。

Yeah.

听起来确实有点像那样。

It almost sounds like that.

没错。

Yeah.

其实有很多

There've been lots

这些就是限制条件。

of These are the constraints.

这些免费资源。

These free resources.

技术。

Technology.

经济学家们没有学到的是技术的影响。

What what economists aren't taught as the impact of technology.

在我看来，这些年来我学到的是，经济学其实是非常积极的。

To my mind, what I've learned over the years is that actually economics is very positive.

它就是要让自由市场通过涨价来告诉你哪里存在所谓的稀缺。

It's all about letting the free market tell you where quote unquote scarcities exist by raising prices.

然后有些企业家会说，等等。

And then some entrepreneurs says, wait a second.

我有个更好的主意，而且这个主意会，你知道，比现在这个好得多，而且我们会以更低的价格出售。

I got a better idea and I can and this idea is gonna, you know, be far better than what's what this is, and we're we're we're gonna sell it at a lower price.

所以经济学家真的不擅长预测技术。

So economists just aren't really good at, anticipating technology.

我并不是说我擅长，但至少我对技术持开放态度，并且认识到技术极其重要。

I'm I'm not saying I am, but at least I'm open minded about it and recognize that technology is hugely important.

因此，我们获得的大量盈利增长要归功于像闪迪和美光这样的公司，它们现在在指数中占有巨大的权重。

So to that end, a great deal of the earnings growth that we're getting is thanks to companies like Sandisk and Micron, which are now gigantic index weights.

他们现在处于可以随意定价的位置，而且他们确实这么做了。

And they're in a position where they can sell their product for whatever they want, and they are.

对。

Right.

而且他们并没有新建很多晶圆厂，也没有卖出更多的芯片。

And it's not like they've thrown up all these new fabs and they're selling more chips.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他们是在清空库存。

They're selling out of their supply.

现在没有库存了，盈利增长是因为他们提高了每件产品的售价。

There is no inventory, And the earnings growth is coming as a consequence of them raising the prices on every unit they sell.

是的。

Yeah.

所以针对你刚才说的，我想我的观点是，难道不会有人站出来说

So to your to to what you just said, I guess my argument has been, well, won't people come along and say

没错。

Exactly.

我们为什么不琢磨琢磨怎么从这块芯片里榨出更多性能呢？

Why don't we figure out how to get more juice out of this chip?

这已经在发生了。

It's already happening.

我是说，研究已经在进行了，这就是价格机制在起作用。

I mean, research is already going on, and it's the price mechanism.

价格机制告诉我们，等等。

The price mechanism says, wait a second.

这些家伙赚翻了。

These guys are making a ton.

利润率高达70%。

The profit margin is 70%.

所以计算成本应该下降，那些芯片到了第三四年可能就不是明显的持有标的了。

So compute should come down, and those chips may not be obvious holds going into year three or four.

短缺问题，嗯，会被创新治愈。

Shortages Well, get cured by innovation.

这又回到了我之前说的创造性破坏。

Well, it goes back to what I said about creative destruction.

同一家公司，刚推出一个惊人的创新，利润率很高，但已经在努力让它过时了。

The same company that just put out an amazing new innovation and has a huge margin on it is already working on making it obsolete.

因为他们不这么做，别人也会做。

Because if they don't do it Someone else will.

别人也会做的。

Somebody else will gonna do it.

所以，你知道，技术真的是在吞噬自己的幼崽。

So, you know, technology literally eats its young.

我是说，这真是个疯狂的行业，但你只需要坐下来看他们怎么做。

I mean, it's it's it's a crazy kind of business, but it you know, all you gotta do is sit back and watch what they're doing.

闪迪刚发布了财报，不对，是西部数据，季度利润32亿美元。

Sandisk just reported, not Sandisk, Western Dig just reported a $3,200,000,000 quarterly profit.

这比一年前的2.82亿美元有所增长。

It was up from $282,000,000 a year ago.

股价却下跌了15%左右。

The stock is down 15% or whatever.

不过公平地说，它已经涨了很多了，对吧？

Now in fairness, it's up a shit ton, all right?

所以无所谓了。

So whatever.

利好出尽是利空。

Sell on the news.

对。

Right.

所以，市场仍然存在很多疑虑。

So, there's still a lot of doubt in this market.

丹尼尔，请给我们看下图表。

Daniel, chart for you, please.

过去六个月，Ed，我想你会喜欢这个的。

For the last six months, Ed, I think you'll like this one.

六个月的远期市盈率下降了8%，但指数价格却上涨了11%。

The six month forward PE is down 8%, and yet the price of the index is up 11%.

这很不寻常。

This is very unusual.

通常，当市盈率收缩8%到10%时，那是因为价格在下跌。

Normally, when you have multiple contraction between 810%, that's because the price is coming down.

对。

Correct.

所以通常发生这种情况时，市场在同一时期会下跌9%。

So normally when that happens, the market's down 9% over the same time.

市场因为强劲的盈利势头而变得更便宜了。

The market's gotten cheaper on fabulous earnings momentum.

因为人们不相信这一点。

Because people don't believe it.

因为人们不

Because the people don't

相信他们不相信这会持续下去。

believe They don't believe it will continue.

对。

Yeah.

而且他们，你知道，他们有一些合理的担忧，比如循环融资，还有这是不是又是互联网泡沫。

And they, you know, and they they have some legitimate concerns about circular financing and, this is the .com bubble all over again.

但是

But

你完全不担心吗？

Do you worry at all about just while Not at it.

不。

No.

我最近一直在指出，整个关于1999年、2000年重演的论点，已经被这次惊人的盈利激增彻底推翻了。

I've been pointing out recently that whole case for nineteen ninety nine two thousand all over again has just been blown apart by this amazing earnings, surge.

那时候，我们有FOMO，就是害怕错过。

Back then, we had FOMO, fear of missing out.

所以当时是市盈率驱动的上涨，但盈利其实并没有真正兑现。

So we had a a PE rally, and the earnings really turned out not to really be there.

而这次，是建立在实实在在的盈利基础上的。

This time around, it's grounded on on earnings.

你觉得如果没经历过1999年，我们会不会更好？

Do think we'd all be better if we didn't live through 1999?

我觉得如果我没经历过那段，我可能会赚更多钱，也敢冒更大风险。

I think I would be I think I would be making more money and taking more risk if I hadn't been through that.

对。

Yeah.

但另一方面，市场总是在担忧中攀升，有人担心其实是好事。

But on the other hand, the market, you know, climbs a wall of worry, and it's it's good to have, people worrying.

我的意思是，正是这种担忧创造了机会。

I mean, that creates the opportunity.

迈克尔前两天在我们的YouTube节目上给我看了涨跌线图表，这是另一种打破1999年类比的方式。

Michael showed me a chart of the advanced decline line, two nights ago on our on our YouTube show as another way to blow up the 1999 analogy.

我们的AD线创了历史新高，意味着几乎所有板块和行业组的股票都在突破新高。

We have an all time record high in the AD, meaning stocks in every sector, almost every industry group are breaking out to new highs.

这在99年是不可能的，那时候只有科技股。

This is In '99, it was only it was tech.

对。

Yeah.

如果你当时

If you were

思科。

Cisco.

投资其他任何东西，你看起来就像个傻瓜。

Investing in anything else, you look like an idiot.

你每天都会觉得自己像个傻瓜。

You felt like an idiot every day.

对，对。

Yeah, yeah.

我的意思是，看看今年，我称之为“令人印象深刻的四百九十三”，它们的表现远远超过了“华丽七巨头”。

I mean, look at this year, we've had I call them the impressive four ninety three, have significantly outperformed the magnificent sub.

有石油股、生物科技股。

Got oil stocks, biotech stocks.

生物科技，对。

Biotech, yeah.

金融。

Finance.

到处都是。

It's everywhere.

而且生物科技正在利用人工智能去探索我们从未涉足的领域。

And biotech's using AI to go where none of us have ever gone before.

所以这完全不像1999年的情况。

So that's not 1999 esque at all.

99年。

'99,

19年很像是99年，但99年已经过时了。

'19 was very '99 is so yesterday.

对。

Yeah.

你知道吗？

You know?

好的。

Okay.

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我在展望未来。

I mean, I'm looking at the future.

我不是说，显然我们可以从过去学到东西，但不要忽视未来正以多快的速度向我们袭来。

I'm not I mean, clearly, we we can learn from the past, but let's not ignore the pace at which the future is coming at us.

我觉得你说得很有道理，互联网泡沫对这次股市上涨有点像是起到了一个调节作用。

I I think you make a great point about the .com bubble is acting like a governor on this stock market rally a little bit.

我觉得大家现在都特别担心再吹出一个泡沫来。

I think people are so freaked out about blowing another bubble.

所以实际上我认为这是件好事。

So I actually think it's a good thing.

听到这，我觉得挺好的。

Hear It's good

是的。

thing.

完全明白你的意思。

Totally hear what you're saying.

这是个很好的观点，Truist Wealth提供了一张很棒的图表，显示了互联网泡沫破裂前市盈率的扩张情况。

This is a great point, a great chart from Truist Wealth showing the multiple expansion the.com, leading up to the .com peak.

当时达到了250%。

It was 250%.

对。

Yeah.

估值扩张。

Multiple expansion.

对。

Yeah.

太疯狂了。

Wild.

这里，我的意思是，过去三年基本持平。

Here, mean, it's basically flat over the last three years.

是18%吗？

Was it it's 18%

而当时是250%。

versus 250%.

希望当时承担了所有的重担。

Hope was doing all of the heavy lifting.