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好吧。
Alright.
世界杯谁赢了？
Who's winning in the World Cup?
我完全不知道。
Because I have no idea.
就是说，
Like,
可能是法国吧。
where Maybe France.
不是。
No.
我是说，现在到底是谁领先？排名怎么样？
But, like, where does this stay where do they stand?
因为好多队伍都已经出局了。
Because because teams have been knocked out already.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
大概已经有五六支队伍被淘汰了。
About five or six have been knocked out.
明白了。
Okay.
哇。
Wow.
这么快？
Already?
对。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Alright.
你觉得谁能留到最后？
Who's in contention for, like, to to stay in the whole thing, do you think?
我觉得有好几个人。
I I think it's several.
就像32强赛一样。
Like, it's a round of 32.
所以你们还有32支队伍，总共48支对吧，好的。
So you have 32 out of, what, 48 teams Okay.
还在比赛里。
Still in the mix.
好的。
Okay.
但重要的是法国队。
But the ones that matter Is the France
他们会告诉你决赛场地在哪儿吗？
Do they give you the locations of where, like, the final final games are gonna be?
会的。
Yeah.
决赛就在这儿，新泽西的大都会人寿球场。
The final's gonna be here in Jersey, MetLife.
天哪。
Oh, boy.
我肯定得赶紧躲得远远的。
I'll be sure I'll be sure to get the hell out
没错。
of here.
是啊。
Yes.
如果跟今天差不多的话。
If it's anything like today
这天气正适合用轮胎锤敲打。
That's tire thumper weather.
是的。
So Yeah.
昨晚我们跑遍了纽约，玩得很开心。
Last night, we we we ran around New York, had fun.
我们去吃了晚饭。
We went to dinner.
他回房间去了。
He goes back to the room.
我正在为节目和其他事情忙活。
I'm working on stuff for the show and different things.
你直接冲去赶场了。
You went straight to flash
赶场。
dashes.
是的
Yeah.
没错
Exactly.
那是什么？
What's that?
老兄，我有几个朋友说在那儿看到你了。
Bro, I have friends that saw you there.
接着说。
Go on.
那是张用AI生成的乔什的照片。
That's an AI image of Josh.
那个不是真正的莱恩。
That's not the real Ryan.
他还在问，你昨晚干嘛了？
And he was talking, what'd you do last night?
他昨晚半夜里真在看足球纪录片。
He was literally watching, like, soccer documentaries at midnight last night.
明白吧？
Okay?
我当时还以为我在开玩笑呢。
So, I mean, I was like I thought I was kidding.
不，你确实是在看。
I mean, you really were.
对吧？
Right?
他是个有品位的人。
He's a man of culture.
没错。
Exactly.
他是个有品位的人，而且
He's a man of culture and
味道。
taste.
没错。
Right.
好的。
Alright.
这挺有意思的，因为这种事在纽约可不常见，我记得上一次在纽约出现还是在2004年左右吧？
So that's cool that's cool, though, because it's not what how often does it come to New the last one I remember in New York was, like, in o four or something?
1994年。
'94.
1994年。
'94.
明白了。
Okay.
好。
Alright.
所以我现在在美国上学。
So that's school I'm in The US.
不过在美国各地都是这么做的。
But then they do it everywhere in The US.
通常来说，除了芝加哥，因为上次94年是在芝加哥办的比赛。
Usually, except Chicago, it feels like, because last time '94, was a game in Chicago.
我觉得那届的揭幕战是在芝加哥。
I think the opening game was in Chicago.
这次好像没怎么靠近那儿。
This time, not quite around
是因为芝加哥有什么特别的依据吗，还是
because Do they Chicago base is that on anything, or
不是。
No.
我觉得是那些申请举办的城市
I think the cities that bid for it
好的。
Okay.
就是那些参与申办的委员会成员。
You know, that are part of the bidding committee.
我觉得就是这样运作的。
I think that's how it works.
明白了。
Alright.
那我支持你们队，你是说荷兰队？
Well, I'm rooting for your team as The Netherlands, you said?
荷兰队。
Netherlands.
对。
Yeah.
当然，除了美国之外。
Other than The US, obviously.
你为什么喜欢荷兰队？
Why do you like The Netherlands?
我开始看足球的时候是
So I started watching soccer when I
那跟现在没关系。
was That's neither here nor there.
好的。
Alright.
咱们开始吧
Let's start
节目。
the show.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
要是再聊足球，你们就得真去看了。
Any more talk about any more talk about soccer, we'll be You'll actually
看比赛。
have watch
对。
it.
咱们最后那八位球迷。
Our last eight fans.
权力的游戏。
The Compound of Thrones.
好的。
Alright.
谢谢，约翰大哥。
Thank you, big John.
哇。
Woah.
哇哦。
Woah.
哇哦。
Woah.
暂停计时。
Stop the clock.
下面插播一段广告。
Here's a word from our sponsor.
本节目由纽维恩赞助播出。
This message is brought to you by Nuveen.
随着传统市场面临通胀、利率上升和经济不确定性带来的压力，投资者正越来越多地转向私募市场，以寻找新的收益来源和稳定性，私募市场如今已成为构建抗风险长期投资组合的关键部分。
Private markets have become essential for building resilient long term portfolios As traditional markets face increasing pressure from inflation, rising rates, and economic uncertainty, investors are turning to private markets to find new sources of return and stability.
纽维恩凭借在房地产、信贷、基础设施和自然资本等领域的专业能力，结合创新解决方案，帮助投资者应对市场波动、控制风险，并发掘持久的增长潜力。
Nuveen combines private market expertise with innovative solutions across real estate, credit infrastructure, and natural capital, helping investors navigate volatility, manage risk, and unlock lasting growth potential.
纽维恩的综合平台提供涵盖不同风险偏好的投资策略，旨在优化传统资产配置，在多种市场环境下提升投资组合的稳定性。
Nuveen's integrated platform offers strategies across varied risk profiles, engineered to enhance traditional allocations and support portfolio stability across a range of market environments.
凭借丰富的经验与对未来的专注，Nuveen 提供经得起时间考验的另类市场解决方案。
Grounded in experience and focus on the future, Nuveen delivers private market solutions designed to stand the test of time.
Nuveen 挖掘另类市场中的新机遇。
Nuveen unlocking opportunity in private markets.
访问 nuveen.com 了解更多信息。
Visit nuveen.com to learn more.
投资存在风险。
Investing involves risk.
可能面临本金损失。
Principal losses is possible.
另类市场投资并非适合所有投资者。
Private market investments may not be suitable for all investors.
本节目由 ClearBridge 投资公司赞助。
This episode is sponsored by ClearBridge Investments.
面对地缘政治紧张局势加剧和市场持续不确定性，投资者正在寻求稳定。
Amid rising geopolitical tensions and continued market uncertainty, investors are looking for stability.
即使在中东最近局势变化之前，由实物资产支持的股票就已经开始走强，在市场波动加剧时，它们能提供更稳定的现金流。
Even before recent developments in The Middle East, stocks backed by real assets were gaining momentum and can offer more predictable cash flows as volatility increases.
通过ClearBridge以基本面为驱动的主动股票策略，让你的投资组合更好地参与更广泛的股市机会。
Position your investment portfolio for wider equity participation with fundamentally driven ClearBridge active equity strategies.
ClearBridge，富兰克林邓普顿旗下的公司。
ClearBridge, a Franklin Templeton company.
访问clearbridge.com了解更多信息。
Go to clearbridge.com to learn more.
欢迎收听《The Compound》与朋友们。
Welcome to The Compound and Friends.
Josh Brown、Michael Batnick及其嘉宾所表达的所有观点均为个人意见，不代表Ritholtz财富管理公司的立场。
All opinions expressed by Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, and their castmates are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
本播客仅作信息参考，不应作为任何投资决策的依据。
This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions.
Ritholtz财富管理的客户可能持有本播客中讨论的证券。
Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.
好的。
Alright.
都没问题吧？
All good?
大家都还好吗？
Everyone's good?
邓肯，你怎么样？
Duncan, you okay?
是的。
Yeah.
我状态很好。
I'm great.
你呢？
You good?
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Alright.
你把麦克风举得那么高，搞得像在录音棚里，或者像个操作中心似的。
You got that microphone up there like you're in a recording studio, like you're a backup center.
我不是故意的。
Didn't mean to.
放低一点，放到和脸齐平的位置。
Bring it down bring it down to face level.
好了，各位。
Alright, guys.
今天可有好戏看了。
We are in for a treat.
人气嘉宾、专业市场评论员、策略师和经济专家，瑞安·德特里克和苏努·瓦尔格塞又回来了。
Fan favorites, professional market commentators, strategists, economic experts, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese are back.
瑞安是卡森集团的首席市场策略师，这家咨询公司管理的资产超过六千亿美元。
Ryan is the chief market strategist at Carson Group, an advisory firm with more than 60,000,000,000 in assets.
在加入卡森集团之前，瑞安在施勒尔投资研究公司工作了十多年，还在LPL金融公司待了六年。
Prior to Carson, Ryan spent more than a decade at Schaeffer's Investment Research and six years at LPL Financial.
瑞安还共同主持一档顶级投资播客，叫《事实与情感》。
Ryan also cohosts a top investing podcast, facts versus feelings.
我对自己的观点非常有信心。
Very confident and very confident in my assertion.
和卡森集团的同事索努一起。
Alongside Carson Group colleague, Sonu.
索努是卡森集团的首席宏观策略师，在资产管理行业有二十年经验。
Sonu is the chief macro strategist of Carson Group, twenty years of experience in the asset management industry.
加入卡森之前，他曾是康维克斯资本管理公司的合伙人兼研究主管，负责共同管理投资组合、为客户提供建议，并带领研究团队。
Before joining Carson, he was a partner and director of research at Convex Capital Management, where he co managed portfolios, advised clients, and led the research team.
很高兴你们二位再次回来。
Boys, it is a pleasure to have you back.
谢谢你们莅临。
Thank you for being here.
谢谢。
Thank you.
你们是做播客的？
You're pod?
嗯？
Yes?
好的。
Alright.
在这儿呢。
Here you are.
好的。
Alright.
我是联合主持人迈克尔·巴特尼克，各位。
I'm co host Michael Batnick, ladies and gentlemen.
来点
Round of
鼓掌吧，迈克尔。
applause, Michael.
最近怎么样？
What's up?
很高兴见到大家。
Good to see everybody.
好的。
Alright.
艾伦·格林斯潘这周去世了。
Alan Greenspan died this week.
我不认同那种人一去世就不准说他坏话的做法。
I don't believe in this thing where when someone passes away, you're not supposed to say negative things about them.
我觉得反而更该好好说说。
I actually think you should double down.
你们有没有想吐槽格林斯潘的地方？或者对他留下的遗产有什么看法？
Do you guys wanna trash Alan Greenspan in any way, or any any opinions whatsoever on the legacy of Greenspan?
他的遗产挺复杂的。
It's a complicated legacy.
瞧瞧他。
Oh, look at him.
他这才刚热身呢。
He's getting he's getting just getting warmed up.
是的。
Yeah.
说吧。
Do it.
对了，我个人简介里还写着，这是我第三次参加这个播客了。
By the way, another thing on my bio there, I'm a third time offender of joining this podcast.
好吧。
Okay.
这已经是第三次了。
This is my third time.
谢谢您。
So thank you.
这个。
This
这是孙宇第二次了。
is Sonu's second.
谢谢大家。
So thank you guys.
不过第一次是你们和JC一起过的生日派对。
The first one, though, is that birthday party you had with JC.
记得吗？
Remember?
2024年2月，我们都下了那个昏暗的地下室，
In February 2024, we all went down that dark basement and had
对，有这回事。
Oh, yeah.
那真是太棒了。
That was awesome.
对。
Yeah.
你说话听起来特别浪漫。
Sounds like you're talking very romantic all your voice.
是的。
Yeah.
人家都说我这副长相适合做广播，我就顺其自然了。
I've been told I have a face for radio, so I just I I go with it.
所以很明显，他在九十年代很受欢迎。
So, obviously, he was well loved during the nineties.
市场一涨。
Market goes up.
大家都开心。
Everybody's happy.
然后你看看他在泡沫期间的做法，泡沫破裂后利率可能被压得有点低。
And then you look at what he did with the bubble and left interest rates maybe a little bit lower after the bubble.
现在很多人回头一看，觉得没错，这可能助长了那场金融危机。
And a lot of people now look back and say, yeah, maybe that contributed to the great financial crisis.
真的吗？
Did it?
难道不是吗？
Did it not?
当然，还有其他因素在起作用。
There's other factors to it, of course.
不过，确实是个复杂的遗产。
But yeah, it's a complicated legacy.
你明白吧？
You know?
我查过。
I looked.
我知道我的意思，我们给你们发了大量图表，这点我清楚，尤其是那张详细列出所有收益构成的图。
I know what I mean, we sent you guys a ton of charts, I know, but the one that shows the breakdown of all the returns.
他可是执掌美联储整整十八年。
I mean, he was in charge of the Fed for eighteen years.
对吧？
Right?
他是在1987年之前接任的。
He took over right before '87.
从沃尔克手里接过的班真不错。
Good handoff from Volker.
市场崩盘了。
Market crashes.
他在十八年间的年化收益涨了290%。
Gained 290% his eighteen years annualized.
我这都是凭记忆说的，大概是7%到7.5%左右。
It's like, I'm going by memory here, like 07/07 and a half percent.
所以很标准，他是任职时间第二长、回报率第二高的。
So standard, but he was the second longest tenured and second largest return.
等等。
Wait.
别急。
Hang on.
他可不是基金经理。
He's not a mutual fund manager.
是的。
Yeah.
他信用很好。
He is a good credit.
他确实不是，但大家都知道。
He's not, but people hey.
这不就是一档金融类播客吗？
Isn't this a financial podcast?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，这没错。
I mean, that's true.
但说实话，他待了挺久，表现还行，不过呢——
But I mean, I guess, you know so he was there a long time, did okay, but there's
别再跟我讲他创造了多少超额收益了。
Stop telling me how much alpha he had.
对。
Yeah.
等一下。
Wait a minute.
等一下。
Wait a minute.
我问 Legacy 的原因是我们先不谈金融危机的事，那都太遥远了。
The reason I ask about the legacy is well, we're gonna put aside all the financial crisis stuff because it's ancient history.
不过，有趣的是，很多人并不知道这一点。
Although, interestingly, a lot of people don't know this.
大家以为美联储的主要职责就是FOMC，其实不是。
One of the Fed's primary responsibilities people think the FOMC is the whole point of the Fed.
对。
Mhmm.
它实际上是一家银行监管机构。
They're actually a banking regulator.
我知道。
I know.
当然。
Sure.
所以，好吧。
So okay.
既然如此，作为一家银行监管机构，美联储主席却在 actively 阻止监管。
So putting that as a banking regulator where the chairman of of the the Fed actively working against regulating.
是的
Mhmm.
但我们先把这些放一边。
But we'll put all that aside.
对我来说，真正的遗产是美联储对资产价格的关注提升了。
The legacy really to me is an increased focus on asset prices at the Fed.
有些人会说，这本来就是他们该走的方向，毕竟经济越来越多地由资产驱动，我也认同这一点。
Some would argue that's where they should have gone because more and more of the economy is being driven by assets anyway, and I believe in that.
但我觉得，经过几任美联储主席之后，新任主席多少受到格林斯潘的影响，有点格林斯潘的风格。
But I think now we've been through several succeeding Fed chairs, and the new Fed chair sort of is a little bit influenced by Greenspan, sort of a little bit Greenspan esque.
他确实希望减少公开沟通的频率。
He certainly wants to communicate less frequently.
就在格林斯潘去世前不久，他还公开提到过，格林斯潘是他受到启发的榜样。
And he actually cited Greenspan recently just prior to his passing as somebody who inspired him.
所以我想知道，作为市场参与者，你觉得我们是否应该对这次交接保持某种警觉？
So I'm curious if you think as market participants, there's something that we should all sort of be aware of about this transition.
大家觉得呢？
What do you guys think?
我觉得有个误区，就是大家以为格林斯潘从不透露他的意图。
I think there's a myth that, you know, Greenspan didn't tell us what he wants to do.
但他其实发表过很多演讲，比如关于他对经济运行机制的看法。
But he gave us a lot of, you know, a lot of speeches, for example, on how he thought the economy works.
回想1994年，我觉得大多数人都会说他当时对通胀感到恐慌，然后匆忙加息。
I mean, you go back to '94, and I would say, you know, I think most people would probably say that he panicked about inflation, raised rates in a hurry.
在九五年、九六年，我觉得他给了时间让生产力增长把通胀压下来。
In 'ninety five, 'ninety six, I think he gave time for productivity growth to pull inflation lower.
其实他开始降息了。
Well, he started to cut off.
他基本上搞砸了加州的情况，当时他写了……
He blew up California, basically, when he wrote
当他在那年做的时候……
When he did in
九四年。
'ninety four.
到了九九年五月，他发表了一次演讲，说确实这几年经济增长、生产率提升都很不错，但劳动力市场有点紧，我担心通胀，那他做了什么？
And then in '99 actually, May '99, he gives a speech saying that, yes, we've had really good years of growth, productivity growth, all of that, but the labor market is sight, I'm worried about inflation, what does he do?
从九九年八月开始，他就开始加息了。
Starting August '99, he starts raising rates.
是的。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得接下来十个月里，他把利率提高了150到175个基点，差不多就是这样。
And I think he raised rates by 150, 175 basis points over the next ten months, something like that.
我觉得回到你刚才说的，我在想，这会不会就是所谓的‘美联储看跌期权’的开端？
And then, I think getting back to your point, I wonder if, you know, that was the start of like the Fed put.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道吗，他之后开始降息，接着就出现了房地产泡沫之类的状况。
You know, when he started dropping rates after that, and then we got the housing bubble and all of that.
我觉得1987年才是美联储政策的起点。
I think '87 is the origin of the Fed put.
对。
Yeah.
这是现代历史上，美联储主席第一次明确采取行动，并且公开表示此举是为了防止股市动荡波及实体经济，而且确实奏效了。
It's really the first time in modern history where the chairman of the Fed specifically does something and then says that it has something to do with not allowing the stock market turmoil to spill over into the real economy, and it works.
1987年我们并没有陷入衰退。
We don't get a recession in '87.
没错。
Mhmm.
直到90到91年，经济才出问题，但那跟1987年的股灾完全没关系。
We don't we don't have any problems in the economy until, like, 9091 with nothing to do with the crash of eighty seven, obviously.
我觉得从那以后，市场就形成了一种新观念：美联储不会让局势失控，因为我们知道他们现在一直在关注市场动态。
And I think that's then becomes this new thing where the market says, well, the Fed's not gonna let things get too out of hand because we know they're paying attention to the markets now.
所以对我来说，这一切就是从这儿开始的，后来到了现代就越来越极端了。
So that's sort of like, to me, that's where that whole thing starts, and then it gets taken to extremes in modern modern times.
是的。
Yeah.
我这儿有个特别喜欢的句子：如果我觉得自己说得特别清楚，那多半是你误解了我的意思。
What my favorite quote I've got here, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said.
我觉得这话说得真好，因为他讲话总是滔滔不绝。
And I think that's great because he talks a whole bunch.
大家总是点点头，格林斯潘一开口，人人都跟着点头。
Everybody kinda nods Everyone, yeah, Greenspan said, everyone kinda nods their heads.
哦，原来如此。
Oh, okay.
这话挺妙的。
That's pretty good.
事情就是这样了。
And and there you go.
就像你刚才说的，我印象中最新的那份声明只有130个词，这几乎是自疫情时期非恐慌性降息以来最简短的一次了。
And and like you just said, I believe the most recent statement, 130 words, that was one of the least we've ever seen outside of like a panic, not panic, but a cut during COVID.
你得回溯到格林斯潘那个年代才行。
And you gotta go back like Greenspan time.
我知道那份声明的图片样子，全是红笔划掉、修改过的痕迹。
So again, and and I know the image of the statement, everything's redded out and crossed out.
看来我们又在回归格林斯潘时代的风格，说话更直接了。
I mean, that's apparently we're going back to some of that Greenspan period to be more to the point.
凯莉特别讨厌这样。
Kelly hates this.
我们的首席策略师凯莉·考克斯，哦，是的。
So our chief strategist, Kelly Cox Oh, yeah.
她这周写了一篇文章，谈的是无论你对新任美联储主席怎么看，透明度都在降低。
Wrote a piece this week about less transparency regardless of how you feel about the new Fed chair.
少并不等于多，因为市场会因此变得更加不确定，可能引发更大波动。
Less is not more, because it's more uncertainty in the markets and could lead to more volatility.
我不确定是否完全同意，但我明白她的观点，这篇文章写得确实不错。
I don't know if I agree with I understand her point, and it's a well written piece.
我只是觉得，不管有没有透明度，波动都会存在，因为他们总是反复改变主意。
I just sort of feel like the volatility is gonna be here with or without the transparency because of how often they change their minds.
我觉得你不能只看美联储里某一个人做决定。
I think you have all the, it's not just one person at the Fed making the decision.
在格林斯潘那个年代，他可能确实对委员会其他成员有很强的影响力。
I think you could argue maybe in Greenspan's time he had a lot of power over the rest of the committee.
但现在有12个成员参与投票。
Now you have 12 members.
是的。
Yeah.
19个人，其中12人有投票权。
19, and Bill 12 vote.
你知道，当沃尔什说我们回到了格林斯潘时代，这才是关键区别所在。
You know, Walsh is and that's the difference between, you know, when Walsh says you're going back to the Greenspan era.
不，格林斯潘经常谈论经济。
No, Greenspan talked about the economy a lot.
他还经常分享自己对经济的看法。
He talked about how he thinks about the economy a lot as well.
沃尔什似乎什么都不想说。
Walsh doesn't wanna say anything apparently.
我们看看这种状态能持续多久。
We'll see how long that lasts.
但其他人一直在公开谈论
But the rest of them are out there talking about
我觉得他想
I think he wants
去思考这些问题。
to they think about that.
他想保留对高频数据做出反应的能力，对。
He wants to preserve the ability to react to higher frequency data Mhmm.
也就是说，实时性更强是一个方面。
Meaning more real time is is one.
其次，他不想每次都得解释他们做的每一件事。
And two, he doesn't wanna have to explain everything they do.
明白。
Mhmm.
因为如果他们需要调整方向，或者明明别人以为他们会行动却什么也不做，他不希望所有打算都提前暴露出来。
Because if they have to change course or do nothing when people think they're gonna do something, he doesn't want everything to be telegraphed in advance.
我不是说这样好还是不好。
And I'm not saying it's good or it's bad.
我只是说，这才是更深远的区别。
I'm just saying that's gonna be the more profound difference.
他需要灵活性。
He wants flexibility.
对。
Yeah.
他想要的是灵活性。
He wants flexibility.
我觉得，如果每件事都得向你解释清楚，那我大概也做不好这份工作。
I I I don't hate the idea that if I have to explain everything to you, I'm probably not gonna do a good job.
美联储可能在解释上太过头了。
And the Fed maybe got too explainy
对。
Yeah.
金融危机之后就是这样。
In in in the post financial crisis.
我觉得那些记者会太多了。
The press conferences, I think, are a lot.
FOMC会议之间，12位成员轮流出去演讲，还互相矛盾，这确实有点过头了。
The 12 members going out and making speeches for a month in between FOMC meetings contradicting each other, that might be a lot.
我觉得他想就此打住，少搞这些。
And I think he wants to just put an end to a lot
这部分。
of it.
有几件事。
So a couple things.
首先，这世界真小，我很多年前在LPL就聘用了Callie，向她致敬。
First off, it's a small world because I hired Callie at LPL many years ago, so shout out
给Callie。
to Callie.
好的。
Alright.
没错。
Yep.
我们一直很喜欢Callie。
We love Callie.
很久了。
For a long time.
这很好。
It's great.
孙和我在这一点上可能意见不同，因为我们通常都是一致的。
Sonu and I might disagree on this one because we usually agree.
我记得以前美联储就在那儿，但根本没人太在意。
I remember a time when the Fed just was there, and it really wasn't that big of a deal.
现在嘛，我跟你一样，乔什。
And now it I I'm with you, Josh.
你一转头，就有不同的美联储官员对各种事情发表看法。
Every time you turn around, there's a different Fed member giving their opinion on something.
是的。
And Yeah.
我心想，哇。
I'm like, woah.
我觉得那个人确实是美联储的成员。
I think that person was part of the Fed.
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我认识一个像苏努这样的人。
And I know a guy like Sonu.
他可着迷了。
He eats it up.
他特别喜欢这些事。
He loves it all.
而且他
And he
你知道的吧？
you know?
这让我一直有工作做。
Just keeps me in a job.
这也能让他一直有工作做。
It keeps him in a job.
这话说得也没错。
That's true too.
我的意思是，其实我也可以接受少一点美联储的干预。
I mean, I I I could live with less Fed, I guess.
我名字后面有个CMT头衔，特许市场技术分析师。
I'm I I do have a CMT behind my name, chartered market technician.
待会儿咱们聊聊我的图表这些东西。
We'll get into my charts and stuff.
说实话，我更愿意跟着市场本身走，而不是听某个美联储官员预测未来——毕竟美联储的预测也不是每次都准。
I mean, I'd much rather just follow what the market's doing than what some various Fed member is saying they think is gonna happen when the Fed doesn't have the best track record sometimes.
好的。
All right.
咱们来聊聊市场吧。
Let's talk about the market.
我有个问题想问问你们。
Have a question for you boys.
对。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
本和我刚录完一期与德里克·汤普森的播客，核心话题就是：这算不算一个泡沫？
Ben and I just got finished recording a podcast with Derek Thompson, and the meat of the conversation was, is this a bubble?
对。
Mhmm.
瑞安，你怎么看这个问题？
Ryan, what would you say to that question?
首先，我觉得你们快到500期了，对吧？
First off, I think you guys are almost up to 500.
对。
Right?
恭喜你们。
Congratulations.
就差一点了。
You're close.
对吧？
Right?
谢谢。
Thank you.
所以这就意味着
So that's
我估计会听个四百集左右吧。
I'd probably listen to 400 of them, give or take.
我的意思是，你们真的特别棒。
I mean, you guys are awesome.
谢谢。
Thank you.
是的。
Yeah.
不是。
No.
我觉得这不像是泡沫。
Don't think it's a bubble.
我的意思是，我知道市场上确实有一部分人有这种感觉。
I mean, I know there's parts of the market that feels that way.
我们来聊聊重点吧。
We can get into the meat of this.
我们会的。
We will.
我们会的。
We will.
但简短的回答是：不会。
But the short answer is no.
实际情况是，这些牛市持续的时间比你想象的要长。
The reality is these bull markets last longer than you think.
我是说，我今年二月就跟你们一起开始了。
I mean, I came out with you guys in February 2024.
我看了我们之前说过的话。
I looked at what we said.
那时候的标题大概是说为什么2024年对多头依然有利。
The title of it was something along the lines of why 2024 would still be good for the bulls.
对吧？
Right?
那会儿可不怎么受欢迎。
That wasn't popular.
你去YouTube上看下评论就知道了。
Read the read the comments on YouTube.
从那以后，市场已经涨了47%。
Markets up 47% since then.
我们是去年七月跟你们一起上线的。
We came on with you guys last July.
我记得你还拿我们的体重开过玩笑。
We I think think you made a joke about our weight.
你说为什么要保持超重？
You said why to stay overweight.
我知道你打的是什么主意。
I know what you're doing with that title.
但不管怎样
But nonetheless
那不是我干的。
It wasn't me.
别往我身上推。
Don't tell me.
我说了，这标题不错。
I said I said it's a good title.
这标题确实不错。
It's a good title.
为什么要保持超重？
Why to stay overweight?
一种保持超重的方法之类的。
A way to stay overweight or something.
不管那是什么吧。
Whatever it was.
但没想到啊。
But whoops.
我确实这么做了。
I did.
我听了你的话。
I listened to you.
我就一直超重着。
I stayed overweight.
瞧瞧，这就对了。
There you go.
继续吧。
Go on it.
没错。
Exactly.
我们都经历过。
And we all have.
我觉得我们现在仍处于这样一个阶段：没错，市场会有波动。
And I think we're still in this area where, yes, there's gonna be volatility.
市场在增长。
The market's growing.
但现实是，牛市的持续时间往往比你想象的要长。
But reality is these bull markets last longer than you think.
这次牛市刚刚成为二战以来第八长的牛市。
This bull market just cracked the eighth longest since World War two.
这到底意味着什么？
What in the world does that mean?
看看前面那七个。
Looking at the previous seven.
对吧？
Right?
这些牛市平均持续时间差不多七年，而这个才刚满三年半左右，从2022年10月开始算起。
The average length of those this one's about three and a half years old, by the way, starting October 2022.
前面那七个牛市的平均时长差不多是七年。
The average length of those other seven was, like, seven years.
最短的也有五年左右。
The shortest was like five years.
我的意思是
I mean
你是从什么时候开始算的？
What are you measuring this from?
是从上一轮熊市的低点开始算的吗？
The low of the previous bear market?
是的。
Yes.
我知道市场上确实有资金流动。
And I know there's flows.
这完全是非正式的说法。
It's very unofficial.
下跌了百分之二十。
Well, down 20%.
你得选一个具体的点。
You have to pick a spot.
但你是说，牛市是在出现百分之二十的回调时结束的？
No, but you're saying that bull markets end when there's a 20% correction.
你是这么衡量的吗？
Is that how you measure it?
从技术上讲，没错。
Technically, yes.
这正是所谓的
That is exactly what
我们用的就是这个。
we're using.
这是可以量化的。
It's quantifiable.
而且这也是可以量化的。
And it's quantifiable.
我知道这套方法有缺陷。
I get there's flaws with this stuff.
我完全明白这一点。
I totally understand that.
2011年和2018年都差点进入熊市。
We had near bear markets in 2011, 2018.
已经足够好了。
It's good enough.
去年的事。
Last year.
我们明白。
We get it.
但实际情况就像一艘邮轮，我之前已经打过这个比方了。
But the reality is it's like a cruise ship, so I've described it.
对吧？
Right?
牛市很难被阻止。
Bull markets are hard to stop.
要让它转弯很难，这就跟邮轮一样。
They're hard to turn around, and that's like a cruise ship.
一旦过了第三年，它们往往就会继续上涨。
Once they get past that third year, they tend to keep going.
这一点我们早就讨论过，背后还有更多内容。
And this is something we've been talked about for a while, and there's more to it than this.
但你至少得心里有数。
But just be aware.
我的意思是，从字面上讲，我们现在到底处在什么阶段？
We I mean, just literally, what are what are we in?
六月吗？
June?
大概十五个月前，欧洲大部分股票从2007年以来的水平一举突破，创出新高。
So let's say about fifteen months ago, most European stocks just broke out to new highs from levels they're trading on 2007.
所以你以为，欧洲这才刚起步一年多，这种势头就要结束了？不可能。
So to think that, okay, we were just a a year or so of Europe finally doing something, This is gonna end?
不会。
No.
我的意思是，我们管理着巨额资金，对吧？
I mean, we and in a way, manage a lot of money.
那到底是什么让孙努和我们不一样？
Like, what makes Sonu I are different?
是的，我们确实做了一个播客。
Yes, we have a podcast.
哦，我有个礼物。
Oh, I have a present.
哦。
Oh.
我差点忘了这事儿。
Forgot about that.
你来说吧。
You talk.
我这个人啊，就喜欢送礼。
I'm a present guy.
我忘了跟文森特说了。
Forgot to Vincent.
我的意思是，等一下。
I mean Wait.
我得听完这个。
I gotta hear the end of this.
哎，我真不知道。
Oh, I don't even know.
谁要谈我的总统？
What's gonna talk about my president?
我们可以聊总统。
We can do presidents.
那真是太棒了。
That was amazing.
我们可以聊总统。
We could do presidents.
我本来打算早些时候做这个的。
Was just gonna do this earlier.
我准备好了。
I got my
东西已经打开了。
thing turned on.
我们聊过这个播客。
We talked about the podcast.
对。
Right.
还有怎么管钱。
And managing money.
是的。
Yes.
我正在
I'm
我本来想把礼物送给你们的，结果给忘了。
so excited about the present, which I forgot to give you guys.
我们经手的钱可不少。
We manage a lot of money.
礼物。
Presents.
所以
So
挺有意思的金钱观。
Interesting money.
你知道，我们不。
You know, we No.
不。
No.
不。
No.
我们讨论这些事，然后就去执行。
We talk about the stuff and do it.
但当你自己管钱的时候，比如卡森刚突破了六百亿，就像你说的，而我们管理着其中很大一部分。
But when you manage your own money, like Carson just cracked 60,000,000,000, like you said, and we manage a lot of that.
管钱真不容易。
And it's hard to manage money.
真的很难。
It's really hard.
管钱真的很难。
It's really hard to manage money.
表达观点真的很难。
It's really hard to have an opinion.
我们尽力做到两者兼顾。
We try our best to do both.
我觉得实际情况是，人们经常因为我是看涨派而攻击我。
And and I think what the reality is we're not going to people bash me a lot for being bullish.
谁？
Who?
Twitter。
Twitter.
还是吗？
Still?
对，是的。
Oh, yes.
我是说，我发的任何一条推文。
I mean, any tweet I do.
就像六月份市场稍微跌了一点。
It's like the market's been down a little bit in June.
这十五年来，年化回报率是15%。
15% a year for these fifteen years.
相信我。
Trust me.
我知道。
Know.
谁在
Who's
攻击？
bashing?
你一直对市场很乐观
You've been bullish for a long
很久了。
time.
值得称赞的是
Credit to
我的意思是，确实如此。
I mean yeah.
比如，苏努在2023年就说过不会出现经济衰退，我也看到了看涨的理由。
Mean, so and Sonu was the one out there in 2023 saying there'd be no recession, and I saw the reasons to be bullish.
不过，话说回来，我确实注意到了这些迹象。
But, anyway, and I see these things.
你瞧，《纽约客》那期封面，乔治·华盛顿醉醺醺的，一脸疲惫，颜色是红白蓝相间。
And you see, like, that cover of The New Yorker with George Washington all hungover, all beat up, says red, white, and kind of blue.
根本谈不上有什么兴奋劲儿。
It's not like there's excitement.
牛市本该让人觉得开心才对。
Bull markets are supposed to feel fun.
你知道的。
You know?
这一轮呢，有些部分确实有这种感觉。
And this one, parts of it do.
好的。
All right.
说说现在的情况。
Get us the present.
就在这儿。
There.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Yeah.
我们现在生活在一个泡沫文化里，对吧。
So there is we live in a bubble culture Yeah.
每个人都急着到处找泡沫。
Where everybody is so everybody's dying to see bubbles everywhere.
市场上有些情况明显透着泡沫的味道。
And there's some shit going on in the market that obviously smells bubbly.
我们都闻得出来。
Like, we all we all we all could smell it.
我都说不下去了。
I can't even talk.
好吧。
Okay.
这太让人兴奋了。
It's so exciting.
等等。
Wait.
把它放进去。
Put it in a space.
这可不是什么……你那儿拿的是啥，印第安纳·琼斯？
It's not not a What do you got there, Indiana Jones?
是的。
Yeah.
什么
What
那是什么？
is that?
背包？
Rucksack?
那是什么？
What is that?
背包。
Rucksack.
哎呀，你们啊。
Oh, you guys.
我们总是
We always
知道的。
know it.
是。
Is.
好吧。
Okay.
让我
Let me
说一句。
say this.
哦，这个真可爱。
Oh, this is cute.
让我来说一句。
Let me say.
哦。
Oh.
你觉得呢？
Do think?
你觉得怎么样？
What do
你觉得呢？
you think?
我也需要一个。
I need one too.
上面明明有卡森的标志，不过算了。
I mean, there's a Carson logo up there, but fine.
算了。
But fine.
我太喜欢了。
I love it.
谢谢你们的Cispiela。
Thanks for Cispiela.
这是我和你们一起听过的最棒的播客。
This is my favorite podcast the way you guys
你们真的特别聪明。
do You guys are very clever.
下次你们再来的时候，我们再等。
We'll wait next time you guys come.
你们聊得真热闹。
You guys are buzzing.
在柜台那边。
Up at the counter.
太喜欢了。
Love it.
好吧。
Alright.
我们怎么这么快就忘了？
So how quickly we forget?
你知道什么曾经是个泡沫吗？
You know what was a bubble?
什么？
What's that?
2021年。
2021.
21年？
'21?
那时候媒体总是...
With the media So
幸好有封邮件提醒了我们。
I'm glad that an email reminded us.
大家想想，我们刚经历完一场泡沫。
It's like, Guys, we just lived through a bubble.
2021年，苹果，算是最稳的了，股价还是跌了30%。
In 2021, Apple, the best of the bunch, fell 30%.
谷歌跌了44%。
Google, 44%.
亚马逊跌了56%。
Amazon, 56%.
英伟达跌了66%。
Nvidia, 66%.
奈飞跌了75%。
Netflix, 75%.
Meta跌了77%。
Meta, 77%.
Arc作为典型代表，到现在还跌了80%。
Arc, the poster child, 80 still in a gigantic drawdown.
对。
Mhmm.
我们刚经历了一场泡沫破裂，却装作什么事都没发生过。
We just had a bubble that popped, and we, like, pretend that that didn't just happen.
这整个就是一个循环。
It's the whole cycle.
整个泡沫周期，包括那些失败的IPO，还有那些荒唐的其他资产类别想法。
Was the whole bubble cycle, including the busted IPOs, including the really bad ideas about other asset classes.
这种事情确实发生了。
Like, that happened.
我们经历了一整套过程。
We had a whole thing.
是的。
Yeah.
我昨天刚写了一篇文章，标题是带着点调侃的意思。
I just wrote a piece yesterday titled tongue in cheek.
等一下。
Hang on.
妮可，把这个放我劳斯莱斯里。
Nicole, put this in my Rolls Royce.
我
I
我带来了一些见解。
brought a couple of insights.
是你的还是迈克尔的？
Yours or Michael's?
我有我的。
I got mine.
我有我的。
I got mine.
好的。
Okay.
给你。
Here.
拿好这个。
Hold on to this.
我包里还带了八个，给整个团队都准备了，没错。
I actually have eight more in my bag for the whole team, so yes.
拿去吧。
There you go.
随便拿它当枕头用。
Feel free and use it as a pillow.
孙宇，你刚才说什么来着？
Sonu, what were you saying?
我不知道。
I don't know.
好的。
Alright.
不行。
No.
我刚才说的是，我写过一篇博客，带着点调侃的口吻，讲我是怎么学会放下焦虑，转而拥抱这种泡沫状态的。
I I was saying I wrote this piece Your blog's tongue in cheek saying how I learned to stop worrying and love the bubble.
明白了。
Got it.
是的。
Yeah.
非常好。
Very good.
很有医生范儿。
Very Doctor.
有点《奇爱博士》的味道。
Strangelovian.
好的。
Okay.
所以我们能取得这样的股市进展并不奇怪，毕竟最近刚经历了一轮完整的牛熊周期。
So so it would it's not strange for us to have made the amount of progress in stocks that we have because we had the whole boom bust cycle recently.
人们还死死盯着2009年那次大行情，却忽略了之后所有的波动，包括2022年那场全面的熊市——主要在科技股，但其他领域也波及了。
People are anchored to 2009 as being the big one, and they, I guess, they ignore all of the volatility along the way since then and a full blown bear market in 2022 for mostly in tech, but elsewhere also.
明白了。
Okay.
所以你的看法是，这趋势还可能继续，但我知道你一直在关注某些信号，真正会改变你判断的，大概就是那些关键因素。
So your view is this could continue, and but I know that there are always things that you're watching for, and and what would change your mind, I think, would be the big question.
我先说吧。
I'll I'll go first.
我主要从技术角度来谈。
So more of a technical point of view.
对吧？
Right?
2021年的时候，人人都在赚钱。
2021, yes, everyone's making money.
大家都拿着政府发的钱，搞日内交易、赌博，各种乱来。
We all have money from the government, day trading, gambling, all that stuff.
那感觉有点疯狂。
It felt a little crazy.
到了2021年第四季度，必需消费品板块突然开始强劲反弹。
And then in the fourth quarter of two thousand twenty one, consumer staples started to rally a lot.
表现远远超过了其他板块。
They outperformed.
第四季度低波动性股票领涨，势头特别猛。
Low volatility led by a lot in the fourth quarter.
就是这种情况。
This.
JC 也提到过这一点。
And not well, JC was talking about it.
当时没几个技术分析师在讨论这个。
Few technicians were talking about it.
大多数人只是玩得开心，顺便赚了钱。
Most people were just having fun, making money.
然后，确实战争爆发了，这显然加剧了这一切。
And then, yes, the war happened, and that, you know, obviously contributed to a lot of it.
但我认为，如果你看这些趋势和技术指标，市场其实已经发出警告，表明底层正在发生某种变化。
But still, I think the market was giving a warning sign that something was changing under the surface when you look at these trends and these technical things.
再往前看现在，就在周一，消费品板块相对于标普500的相对表现，跌到了很久以来的最低点。
And then you fast forward to right now, I mean, equal way consumer staples relative to the s p 500 just on Monday hit, like, the lowest number the lowest level in a long time.
所以我们现在看不到这种迹象了。
So we're not seeing that.
低波动性也没再出现。
We're not seeing low vol.
我猜他心里有一大堆想法。
And I assume he's got a of thoughts.
低波动性。
Low vol.
2021年消费品板块的上涨，是不是正好赶上了利率开始上升的时候？
Did the rally in staples in in in '21 coincide with the beginning of the rise rise of interest rates?
那是在这之前。
It was before that.
确实在那之前。
It was before.
那是在这之前。
It was before that.
但当时的市场早就有所预兆了。
But the market before.
是的。
Yeah.
市场其实已经察觉到了。
The market sort of knew Yeah.
知道美联储迟早得采取行动。
That the Fed was gonna have to do something.
我
I
我觉得通胀是个问题，美联储反应太慢了。
think inflation is a problem, and the Fed was late.
对。
Right.
好的。
Okay.
明白了。
Alright.
这挺有意思。
That's interesting.
但并没有任何类似的迹象。
But there's no sign of anything like that.
我来提供一个证据，说明这可能是个泡沫。
Me offer one piece let me offer one piece of evidence for why this might be a bubble.
不过我要说明一下，我不认为这是个泡沫。
And I I for the record, I don't think this is bubble.
但如果非要我挑出一点，可能就是这个。
But if I were to point to one thing, maybe it would be this.
美光昨天发布了财报，我们待会儿看数据，表现非常出色。
So Micron reported yesterday, we'll get into the numbers, which were outstanding.
美光的市值马上就要超过Meta了。
Micron's market cap is about to pass meta.
这听起来对吗？
Does that sound right?
literally，两家公司都是1300亿美元左右。
Like literally, they're both 1,300,000,000.
上个季度，他们的利润比英伟达一年前的还高。
Oh, this last quarter, they made more profits than Nvidia made a year ago.
这生意确实不错。
It's good business.
是的，如果能拿到手，那当然好。
Yeah, if you can get it, right?
但我认为，实际上，这种情况还能持续下去。
But I think it's actually, you know, I think this can continue.
我觉得跟2021年不一样，这里真有实体经济的支撑，对吧？
I think there's, unlike 2021, there's a real economy story here too, right?
这里头有宏观层面的逻辑。
There's a macroeconomic story here.
你看GDP数据，尤其是信息技术设备加软件这一块，已经占到经济总量的5%了。
You look at, even within the GDP data, you look at information technology equipment plus software, you know, that's almost 5% of the economy, 5% of GDP.
几年前，这数字还只有3%左右。
A few years back, it was about 3%.
对于经济中这么小的一个部分来说，增长幅度相当大。
That's a big increase for a relatively small piece of the economy.
看空的人会怎么说呢？
Here's what the bears would say.
我们不再讨论英伟达的循环融资模式了，因为那根本不是个成功的看空策略。
We stopped talking about the circular financing schemes with NVIDIA because that was not a that was not didn't turn out to be a great bearish trade.
但现在情况变得更复杂了，亚马逊开始和OpenAI做交易，一眨眼就牵扯进十来家公司。
However, things are only getting more circular with Amazon now doing deals with OpenAI, and it's it's like this click of 10 or 12 companies.
而这十来家公司，不仅把所有现金流都转了一圈，现在连大部分收入都流到了两家公司手里。
Meanwhile, those 10 or 12 companies are turning over not only all of their cash flow, but at this point, most of their revenue to two companies.
一家在台湾，另一家是美光。
One is in Taiwan, and the other one is Micron.
基本上是这样
And basically
韩国还有几家。
And a couple in South Korea.
也许吧。
Maybe.
没错。
Right.
所以，全球十大公司都在说：未来三年，我们所有的收入都给你们了。
So you have you have the 10 biggest companies in the world saying, here's all our fucking revenue for the next three years.
我们给你们保证的订单。
We're giving you guaranteed deal.
我们直接把订单交给东亚的两到三家公司，生产那些关键到极致的零部件——其中一家现在已经是全球第九大上市公司了。
We're just gonna give it to two two or three companies in the in the Far East for components that apparently are so critical that one of those companies is now the ninth largest stock in the world.
但这怎么可能是看空的理由？
But how is that a bear case?
看空的理由在于，美光的利润和收入增长，主要来自它卡住了供应链，单纯靠提价。
The bear case is Micron's incredible earnings and revenue growth are predominantly coming from them being a choke point and just raising prices.
不是靠销量。
It's not volume.
他们并没有增加产量。
They're not making more.
他们也做不到。
They can't.
是的
Yeah.
这就是通货膨胀。
It's inflation.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是
I mean,
他们确实做不到。
they can't.
对。
Yeah.
平均售价上涨了60%以上。
Well, 60% plus growth in average selling price.
明年他们还能这么干吗？
Are they gonna do that next year?
他们今天说的。
They said today.
后年呢？
The year after?
他们表示，预计2027年之后，DRAM和NAND的供需状况仍将保持紧张。
They said, We now expect supply demand conditions for both DRAM and NAND to remain tight beyond calendar 2027.
所以昨晚他们公布的营收是415亿美元，环比增长74%，同比增长364%。
So last night they reported $41,500,000,000 of revenue, up 74% quarter over quarter, 364% year over year.
这对美光来说可是个超级利好的消息。
Very bullish if you're Micron.
所以你看，从2025年1月开始，
So ChartKid
未来十二个月的预期盈利增长了1440%。
showed since January 2025, the earnings the twelve month forward earnings is up 1440%.
股价也涨了1300%。
The stock's up 1300%.
对。
Mhmm.
听起来确实符合大家的预期。
Like, that sounds like it's in line with what you would expect.
投资者愿意为高增长买单。
Investors pay up for growth.
他们可不会为了
They're not gonna pay
利润增长势头不错。
up for getting profit growth.
对。
Yeah.
他们确实做到了。
They're getting it.
是的。
Yeah.
但另一面是通货膨胀。
But the other side of the coin is inflation.
关键在于，这种状况是否能持续，或者公司最终能否找到办法，不再为内存支付这么高的价格，或者避免未来进一步涨价？
The question is is is it is it sustainable and or will companies ultimately figure out a way to do this and not pay as much for for memory or not pay price increases from here?
公司未来会不会靠技术突破来绕过这些瓶颈？
Will companies use their technological ingenuity to get around these bottlenecks in the future?
目前市场给出的答案是否定的。
The market is saying no right now.
市场认为
The market is saying
他们做不到。
they can't.
市场可能错了，但目前就是这么看的。
Market might be wrong, but will say.
又回到格林斯潘的话题了，对吧？
Back to Greenspan, right?
1996年12月5日，他发表了著名的‘非理性繁荣’演讲，据说那句话是在浴缸里想出来的。
12/05/1996 was the famous irrational exuberance speech, which apparently he came up with the words irrational exuberance in his bathtub.
他们就是这么说的。
That's what the that's what they said.
但确实如此。
But Yeah.
接下来的三年里，标普500指数上涨了超过100%。
The S and P 500 went up more than 100% the next three years.
他提前了四年就指出了问题。
He was four years early.
没错。
Exactly.
纳斯达克指数更是涨了三倍多。
NASDAQ went up over 300%.
我知道大家听过很多次了，但值得重温一下：当时市场确实被高估了，因为他这么说了，而且很多人也这么认为。
So I know people have heard this before, but it's good to remember that, yeah, the market was overvalued then because he said it was, and a lot of people thought it was.
我刚入行的时候正好赶上那会儿，具体细节记不清了，但读了很多相关的历史书籍。
And that's right when I started, so I I don't remember it exactly, but read a lot of the history books.
你现在再看看那些情况。
And you look at the things now.
我说过，我们年初的展望标题是‘乘风而上’。
I mean, again, we titled our outlook start of the year riding the wave.
我们的年中展望再过几周就发布了。
Our midyear outlook comes out in a couple weeks.
现在还是在乘风而上。
It's still riding the wave.
挺有创意的，我知道。
Creative, I know.
你懂的。
You know?
但当我们重新审视时，依然觉得保持敞口是合理的。
But when we look at it, we still think it makes sense to have exposure.
我们在科技板块的配置稍微偏重了一些。
We're slightly overweight technology here.
你总不能说这纯粹是泡沫吧，不过——
You know, to just say it's a bubble, maybe, but
这也没什么不好。
it's not bad.
问题在于，我觉得根本不是泡沫的问题。
The issue is that it's a so I don't think the issue is that it's a bubble.
好的。
K.
美光现在的市盈率是9.5倍。
Micron's 9.5 times earnings on there.
没那么高了。
Not anymore.
现在更高了，不过你继续说。
It's way higher, but keep going.
我不这么认为。
I don't think it is.
就是。
It is.
我真的不觉得是。
I don't I don't think it is.
就是。
It is.
但不管怎样，如果是10，那也是11。
But I either either way, if it's 10, it's 11.
我觉得问题不在于它是不是泡沫。
I don't think the issue is that it's a bubble.
我觉得更关键的是，想想变化有多快，我们的记忆却很短。
I think the bigger question is think about how fast things are changing, and we have short memories.
对。
Like Mhmm.
一年前，有一只人人必买的股票。
One year ago, there was a must own stock.
但那不是美光。
It wasn't Micron.
你还记得是哪只吗？
You remember what it was?
当时人人都得买它。
Everybody had to own it.
那时候大家一致看好的是Palantir吗？
It was the consensus Palantir?
就是Palantir。
Palantir.
明白了。
Okay.
对。
Yeah.
跌到多少了？
Down a How's
怎么样？
that doing?
跌了百分之五十。
It's down 50%.
对。
Right.
它下跌了一百点，从207跌到107，就在九个月内。
It's down it's down a 100 points, two zero seven or one zero seven in nine months.
这种事经常发生。
And this happens all the time.
好消息是，市场轮动的力量足够强，总能救我们一命。
The good news is the rotations in the market are powerful enough that we get bailed out.
是的。
Mhmm.
因为当一个板块失去青睐时，另一个板块就会取而代之。
Because just as one group loses favor, another group rises to take its place.
之前科技股一直拖累市场。
So the software stocks had been a drag on the market.
现在金融股补上了，而且全都涨到了52周新高。
Financials are making up for it, and now they're all at fifty two week highs.
我给你们看一下图表好吗？
Can I show you boys a chart?
好的。
Yeah.
行。
Yeah.
约翰，19.2，麻烦了。
John, 19.2, please.
明白了。
Alright.
从2018年开始，只要市场其他板块的表现超过MAG七巨头，市场就陷入深度回调。
So since 2018, any time the rest of the market outperformed the MAG-seven, the market was in a deep drawdown.
对吧？
Right?
这很合理。
Makes sense.
最近27天里，四九三板块的表现比MAG七巨头高出18%。
Right now, over the last twenty seven days, the four ninety three are outperforming the MAG-seven by 18%.
这个差距大得惊人。
That's a gigantic spread.
事实上，这是自2018年以来最大的差距，而市场整体却几乎创下历史新高。
In fact, it's the most that we've seen since 2018, and the market is basically at an all time high.
我实在想不出还有什么比MAG七巨头彻底崩盘更看涨的信号了。
I cannot possibly think of a more bullish development that the MAX seven are absolutely breaking down.
微软现在的走势简直惨不忍睹。
Microsoft looks like death.
微软相对于标普500的表现，跟2019年时差不多。
Microsoft relative to the spies is where it was in 2019.
过去七年所有的超额收益，全都没了。
All of the outperformance of the last seven years, goodbye.
市场这么健康，工业股和地区性银行涨得火热，而MAG七巨头却跌得惨，这反而说明形势特别乐观。
The fact that the market is remaining as healthy as it is with industrials ripping, with regional banks ripping, and the max seven getting their you know what kicked in, I think that's fantastically bullish.
你觉得风格轮动才是最关键的变量吗？
You think rotation's been, like the most important factor?
我觉得动量策略其实表现不错，尽管MAG七巨头根本不算动量股。
I'd say momentum is actually doing really well despite, MAG seven is not momentum.
不对，MAG七巨头根本不是那么回事。
Nope, Mag seven not did, you know.
所以你现在看到市场分化得很厉害。
So you are seeing a lot of dispersion.
美光科技占标普500动量指数的12%。
Micron's 12% of the S and P 500 Momentum Index.
但这时候，情况可能就有点过头了，对吧？
But then this is where things could be stretched, right?
你看过去十二个月，动量策略相对于标普500的超额收益。
You look at the excess performance of momentum, S and P 500 Momentum over the S and P 500 last twelve months.
回顾过去四十年，这个水平已经排到第95百分位了。
You look at the last forty years, it's at the ninety fifth percentile.
这确实过头了。
That's stretched.
过去三年呢，
Last three years,
过去三年，它已经到了百分之百的百分位。
last three years, it's at the hundredth percentile.
对吧。
Right.
没错。
Right?
所以动量策略明显过头了，这就引出一个问题：这种过头的状态还能持续多久？
So momentum is definitely a stretch, and that gets to, you know, now it can, you know, what stretch can continue staying stretched.
我在想，我们以前有没有见过动量这么极端，但企业盈利增长却真有支撑的情况？
I wonder if we've ever seen momentum this stretched where there was an actual justification from earnings growth.
因为以前也出现过动量过热的时候，但那时候公司的基本面根本撑不住。
Because I could picture other times when momentum was stretched, but the quality wasn't the quality wasn't there.
比如这次，我们说动量确实过头了，可你看美光科技，单季盈利从十亿美元飙升到两千四百亿美元。
Like, in this case, we're saying momentum is stretched, and then we have a company like Micron go from a billion dollars to $24,000,000,000 in quarterly earnings.
这时候你就会说，哦，原来如此。
And it's like, oh, yeah.
动量之所以过头，是因为这些公司的实际表现确实强劲。
Momentum is stretched because this is what these companies are
就是这样。
doing.
这就回到你之前的问题了：这种利润增长能持续多久？
Gets back to your question as to how long can that profit growth case continue.
乔什说得太对了。
Josh is so right.
因为我觉得，当人们听到‘动量’这个词时，往往会联想到负面的意思。
Because I think when people hear the word momentum, it has a negative connotation.
全是些不靠谱的东西。
All of junky stuff.
这些人都在盲目跟风。
These dummies are just chasing.
是的。
Yeah.
而且根本没有基本面的支撑。
And there's no fundamental assumption
或者他们想到的是，萨姆·阿尔特曼搞了个核反应堆公司。
stop or they think of, like, Sam Altman launched a nuclear reactor company.
他们觉得那种才叫动量。
That's what they think is Momentum.
你一看，原来是康宁公司，已经经营了一百五十年了。
And then you look and it's Corning, which has been in business for a hundred fifty years.
还有卡特彼勒，是市场上最热门的股票之一。
And it's like it's Caterpillar, one of the top Momentum stocks in the market.
这是一家百年老店，蓝筹股，道琼斯指数成分股。
It's a 100 year old company, blue chip, Dow stock.
所以当人们听到‘动量’这个词，第一反应就觉得肯定是些古怪的生物科技公司，或者全是半导体，其实根本不是这样。
So when people hear Momentum, the immediate assumption is this is gonna be some freaky biotech stuff or it's all semiconductors and it just isn't.
大型股也是其中之一，对吧？
It is large caps too, right?
小盘股在几个月内涨两倍，这还说得过去。
It's one thing for small caps to increase 200% in a few months.
是的。
Yeah.
但现在你看到的，是美光、闪迪，还有SK海力士这些公司也出现了同样的情况。
But now you're seeing that with your Micron's and SanDisc's and, you know, SK Hynix's
顺带说一句，美光的市值是13亿。
By way, said Micron was 1,300,000,000.
我 obviously 是想说万亿。
I'm obviously I meant trillion.
是万亿吗？
Is it trillion?
对。
Yeah.
万亿。
Trillium.
万亿。
Trillium.
是13亿。
It's 1,300,000,000.
对。
Yeah.
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