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对。
Yeah.
看看我们。
Look at us.
我们看起来不错，迈克。
We look good, Mike.
看看你。
Look at you.
不。
No.
我们喜欢我们现在的状态，我们做得很好。
We like we, we're doing good.
感觉很好。
Feel good.
迈克尔和我今天不得不去收拾我们那个被摧毁的小小的长岛办公室的残局。
Michael and I Michael and I had to go pick up the pieces of our demolished little, pocket Long Island office today.
给不知道的人说一下，有辆车撞破了玻璃窗，把我们办公室给毁了，不过很多东西都幸存下来了。
For those who are not in the know, a car drove through a plate glass window and wrecked our office, but a lot of things survived.
不是我们的车。
It wasn't our car.
很多东西都幸存下来了。
A lot of things survived.
所以，迈克尔和我去废墟里翻找，看看能找出些什么东西来。
So, Michael and I went to, dig through the rubble and see and see what we could, pull out of there.
你知道吗，我在清理废墟的时候受了伤。
Do you know I got an injury during the rubble cleaning?
我在擦东西的时候，一块车玻璃碎片扎进了我的手指里。
I was wiping off something and a piece of glass from the car lodged itself in my finger.
又来了。
Here we go.
这个白人现在要告我了。
This white guy's gonna sue me now.
我觉得那是辆本田。
I think it was a Honda.
就凭我手指上的伤来看。
Just by the by my by the damage on my finger.
感觉像是本田。
It felt like felt like Honda.
别告我啊。
Don't sue me.
好吧。
Alright.
天哪。
Holy cow.
我们今天有好多事要做。
We have so much to do today.
我看着日程表，发现事情真不少。
I'm just I'm looking at the dock, and I'm realizing there's a lot happening.
在跟大家打招呼之前，我想先说一件事。
I do wanna say one thing before we, say hello to the chat.
我们做的和财经电视的区别在于，一个小时的财经节目，他们必须把市场上所有值得关注的事情都讲一遍。
The difference between what we do and financial TV, an hour of financial TV, they literally have to get to every single thing happening in the market, like, of of note.
我们不受这个限制。
We're not bound by that.
我们不是电视节目。
We're not t we're not television.
这是不一样的东西。
This is something different.
所以很多人会问，哎，你们怎么不谈这个？
So a lot of people are like, oh, how come you don't talk about this?
或者你们怎么漏掉了那个？
Or how come you miss that?
对。
Yeah.
按定义来说，我们肯定会漏掉很多东西。
There's, by definition, there's a lot that we're gonna miss.
我不想说我们是在精选。
I don't wanna say we're curating.
我觉得我们是在筛选。
I think or we're filtering.
我觉得我们做的其实是精选。
I think what we're doing is curating.
我们不是过滤器，不是说只提重要的事，没提到的就不重要。
Like, we're not we're not a filter, we're saying, like, we're only saying the things that matter, and everything that we don't mention doesn't matter.
不是这样的。
That's not what this is.
我说的精选，是指我们尽量挑那些我们认为有趣或重要的事情。
When I say curating, we're trying to pick the things that we think are interesting or important.
而且，我的意思是，能不能
And, I mean Can
我能补充一点吗？
I add to that?
这很难。
It's hard.
很多事情我都觉得自己根本没资格去谈。
Most of a lot of things I'm just feel deeply unqualified to talk about.
甚至包括我们在这里聊的那些话题。
Even things that we talk about on here.
比如说，我并不是什么都懂。
Like, I don't know everything about every everything.
这点说得特别好。
That's a really good point too.
而且，各位，我们不想上来就聊那些我们自己都完全不懂的东西。
And, guys, we don't wanna come on and talk about things that we have no idea what we're saying.
就算聊了，我们也会用有趣的方式去讲，并且会告诉你，这超出了我们的专业范围，但市场似乎很在意这件事。
Or if we do, we'll try to treat it in a funny way, and we'll tell you this is, like, out of our lane, but the market seemed to care about this.
所以，就是这样。
So here it is.
所以，这就是我们决定要做什么的方式。
So that's that's how we're coming up with what we're gonna do.
很多人说，哦，我喜欢看屏幕上的话题。
A lot of you guys are like, oh, I like seeing the topics on the screen.
我们正在做一些完全不同的东西。
We're doing something totally different.
我们会在屏幕上显示话题，但会以标题的形式出现。
We will have topics on the screen, but they'll take the form of headlines.
我们正在改进我们的字幕条。
And we're working on our lower third.
每周都会好一点。
It's getting a little bit better each week.
但是，让屏幕的固定三分之一部分只列出我们要讨论的六七件事，并不是对屏幕空间的最佳利用。
But having that static one third of the screen, just list the six or seven things we're gonna talk about is not a great use of on screen real estate.
所以请多包涵，我们还在不断改进。
So bear with us as we evolve.
不过我觉得事情进展得挺顺利的。
But things are things are coming along really nicely, I think.
你有什么要补充的吗？
Anything to add to that?
你知道吗，La Z Boy是一家上市公司？
Did you know that La Z Boy is a publicly traded company?
这个我还真知道。
I did know that.
他们刚刚在盘后发布了财报。
They just reported earnings in the after hours.
我当时就说，La Z Boy？
I said, La Z Boy?
他们做沙发床之类的，股票代码是LZB？
They make futons like LZ LZB?
没错，Josh。
That's right, Josh.
好问题。
Great poll.
这只股票正在暴跌。
The stock is stock is cratering.
但这两者太接近了。
But these so close
在房地产繁荣时期，那就像现在的GPU股票一样。
In housing boom, that was a that was like a GPU stock.
在2005、2006、2007年，人们交易房地产相关股票的方式，就像我们现在交易内存股一样。
In two thousand five, six, seven, people were trading housing plays the way that we trade memory stocks now.
Ethan Allen当时是只热门股票。
Ethan Allen was a rock and roll stock.
Restoration Hardware、La-Z-Boy，这些股票当时波动很大。
Restoration Hardware, Lazy Boy, like, these were stocks that moved.
所以这就是我唯一知道的理由。
So that's the only reason I know
对。
it.
而且他们现在还在做20亿美元的销售额。
And they're still doing $2,000,000,000 in in sales.
大公司。
Big company.
我完全不知道。
I had no idea.
好吧。
Alright.
我们开始吧。
Let's get
进入正题。
to it.
我这把椅子是乐至宝的。
This my chair is a La Z Boy.
真的假的。
No shit.
没想到吧？
How about that?
是真的。
It is.
是真的。
It is.
好。
Alright.
各位，今晚我们有赞助商，富兰克林邓普顿。
Guys, we have a sponsor tonight, Franklin Templeton.
迈克尔，给我们好好讲讲吧。
Michael, tell us all about it.
乔什，你觉得目标日期基金都一样吗？
Josh, do you think target date funds are all the same?
再想想吧，富兰克林邓普顿的退休优势目标日期基金采用灵活的滑行路径，能随时调整股票和债券的权重，以适应不断变化的市场。
Think again, Franklin Templeton's retirement advantage target date funds feature a flexible glide path and can adapt to changing markets by adjusting stock and bond weightings at any time.
而且，乔什，和大多数目标日期基金不同，退休优势基金不只是简单地把其他基金打包在一起。
And unlike most target dates, Josh, retirement advantage funds aren't simply bundles of other funds.
富兰克林邓普顿的投资组合管理团队对其底层策略有全面的监督。
Franklin Templeton's portfolio management team has comprehensive oversight of their underlying strategies.
这样就能更好地控制风险，抓住机会。
The result is more control to manage risk and to capitalize on opportunities.
来了解一下退休优势目标日期基金的与众不同之处，以及它们获得的奖项和评级，请访问 franklintempleton.com/advantage。
Discover what makes retirement advantage targeted funds different, and check out the awards and ratings they've received at franklintempleton.com/advantage.
网址是 franklintempleton.com/advantage。
That's franklintempleton.com/advantage.
当然，和往常一样，投资前请仔细考虑基金的投资目标、风险费用和开支。
Of course, as always, before investing, carefully consider a fund's investment objectives, risk charges, and expenses.
你可以在franklintempleton.com网站上找到这些信息以及其他信息，如果有招股说明书或摘要招股说明书的话。
You could find this and other information in each prospectus or summary prospectus if available at franklintempleton.com.
请仔细阅读。
Please read it carefully.
所有投资都有风险，包括可能损失本金。富兰克林分销有限责任公司，FINRA和SIPC成员。
All investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal, Franklin Distributors, LLC, member FINRA, SIPC.
干得好，先生。
Well done, sir.
好的。
Alright.
我们来谈谈债券收益率吧。
Let's talk let's talk bond yields.
在解释发生了什么之前，我想先问你一个问题。
Let me just start with the before we even explain what's going on, I wanna start with a question for you.
考虑到债券收益率上升，你对股市到目前为止表现如此强劲感到惊讶吗？
Are you surprised at how well the stock market has held up so far given the rise in bond yields?
基本上，整个夏天都在慢慢发生，还是你一点也不惊讶？
Basically, that's been taking place in slow motion all summer, or are you not surprised at all?
这就是关键。
That's the key.
你说得对。
You said it.
慢慢发生。
Slow motion.
其实不是
It it's not
到目前为止。
how So far.
对，是的。
Well, yeah.
这就是我回应你关于“到目前为止”这个问题的原因。
That's what I'm responding to your question about so far.
所以从三月初的4%涨到了4.7%，一直是一个缓慢而稳定的爬升过程。
So it we went up from 4% at the beginning of March up to four seven, and it's been a slow, steady grind.
如果波动更剧烈，比如在两周内而不是五个月内完成，那么股市肯定会低得多。
If it was a more violent move, if it happened in two weeks instead of five months, then the stock market would be a lot lower.
但市场有充足的时间来消化更高的利率。
But the market has had plenty of time to digest higher interest rates.
你猜怎么着？
And guess what?
我并不惊讶，因为股市一直在回应盈利情况，而且目前似乎并不特别在意收益率。
I'm not surprised only because the stock market has responded to earnings, and it doesn't seem particularly concerned with yields right now.
好的。
Okay.
所以这种情况正在全球范围内发生。
So this is happening around the world.
不仅仅是美国国债。
It is not just the treasury bond.
我想从这个说起。
I wanna start with that.
我要引用杰夫·考克斯的话，他是cnbc.com的资深记者，写得很棒。
I'm gonna quote Jeff Cox who writes, great reporter, veteran at cnbc.com.
他说，特别是三十年期国债，现在的交易价格大约是2003年以来的最高水平。
He says the thirty year bond in particular is trading around its highest level since 2003.
我之前以为是2007年，但可能我看的是二十年和三十年的平均，也就是长期国债的平均值，而他只看三十年。
I had it as 2007, but maybe I'm just look but I might be looking at, like, the twenty and thirty year, like, long bond, the average, and he's just looking at the thirty.
但我之前说的是十九年来的最高。
But I had it as the highest in nineteen years.
不管怎样，
Either way
三十年期是2007年，但不管怎样，你继续。
The 30 is o seven, but either way, keep going.
好的。
Okay.
所以，基本上，现在政府债务是40万亿美元。
So so, basically, it's $40,000,000,000,000 in government debt right now.
长期债务的收益率确实在上升。
The longer rated the the the longer term debt is, where the yields are are really moving higher.
这就是杰夫在跟华尔街多家机构交流后所说的。
And this is what this is what Jeff has to say after speaking with a bunch of Wall Street shops.
固定收益策略师将始于六月的这轮涨势归因于多个因素。
Fixed income strategists described the run that began in June to a number of variables.
对预算赤字的担忧加剧，但今年的预算赤字已经超过了2025年全年的水平。
Intensified concern over a budget deficit, but the budget deficit is now bigger year to date than for all of 2025.
我们今年已经超过去年了，所以我们就这么提一下。
Like, we blew through last year, so we'll just put that out there.
通胀处于一个不祥的停滞状态。
Inflation in an ominous holding pattern.
我觉得没那么不祥，但那是另一回事。
I think it's not quite so ominous, but that's another thing.
发行节奏放缓，还有一波公司债发行潮。
Moderating date, a a rash of corporate debt issuance.
这是人们说的另一件事。
This is the other thing people are saying.
企业一直在大量发行债券。
Corporates have been floating a lot of debt.
等等。
Wait.
我觉得今年到目前为止，比去年全年还多了20%到30%。
I I think 20 or 30% more than in all of last year, year to date.
其中很多跟AI数据中心建设有关，这个我们待会儿会讲到。
And a lot of that has to do with the AI data center build out, which we'll get into.
那为什么会推高政府债券收益率呢？
Why would that push government yields higher?
因为这是竞争。
Because it's competition.
这些是AAA级债券，收益率更高。
These are triple a rated bonds, and they have a higher yield.
好的。
Okay.
所以当人们选择买Alphabet的债券而不是国债时，理论上就少了一个买家。
And so when people, choose to buy alphabet paper instead of a treasury bond, theoretically, that's one less buyer.
看情况吧。
Depending
从你的角度看，你可能不认同这个说法，但你能肯定的是，利率在持续上升，也就是说长期债券在被抛售。
on where you sit, you may not buy that argument for one for for why, but it what you can't what you can argue is that this is a persistent rise in rates, meaning the selling of long term bonds.
我引用一下巴克莱资本美国利率研究主管周一说的话：这些不是新因素，长期收益率的上升是渐进的，而不是突然的。
So let me quote, who is the head of US rates research at Barclays Capital said on Monday, these are not new forces, and the rise in long term yields has been gradual rather than sudden.
今天值得注意的不是这些压力的存在，而是它们似乎强到足以盖过个别疲软的经济数据。
What is notable today is not the existence of these pressures, but that they appear strong enough to overwhelm individual soft data releases.
这个月有三份独立的数据发布本应压低收益率。
Three independent releases argued for lower yields this month.
长期收益率还是上涨了。
Long end yields moved higher anyway.
这就是有意思的地方。
So that's the interesting thing.
经济数据要么低于预期，要么比预期疲软，不是政府数据，而是他们说的那些独立数据。
The economic data is either surprising to the downside or coming in soft versus expectations, not the government data, but when they talk about independent.
所以，你知道，我们每个月会收到一百份不同的报告。
So, you know, we get a 100 different reports every month.
我觉得，这就是让人意外的地方。
And, that's the I think that's the surprise.
等等。
Wait a minute.
经济没问题，但数据却低于预期。
The economy is fine, but the data surprises the downside.
为什么长期收益率还在攀升呢？
Why is the long end climbing?
原因是人们宁愿去做别的事情，也不愿意持有三十年期国债。
And the reason is people would rather be doing other things than holding thirty year treasury bonds.
对于这个总结，你觉得是什么原因导致的？
What are what are your thoughts about that summation of of what's causing things?
对。
Yeah.
我觉得大体上是对的。
I think that's mostly right.
这是其中的一个方面。
Here's the tip of it.
但更重要的是。
But but here's more important.
十年期国债比三十年期重要得多。
The ten year is so much more important than the thirty year.
我知道那是期限溢价所在，也是经济不确定性和赤字担忧的集中体现。
I know that's where the term premium is and that's where the economic uncertainty and the the deficit concerns is all out there.
但是，那只是政府整体债务中很小的一部分。
But the, but that's a tiny part of the overall government pie.
只占新发行量的1%。
It's 1% of new issuance.
我觉得大概占未偿债券的5%左右。
I think it's like 5% or something like that of outstanding bonds.
它在市场中的占比要小得多，而且大多数资产价格都是根据十年期国债而不是三十年期抵押贷款来定价的。
It's a much smaller piece of the market and most asset prices are priced off of the ten year and not the thirty year mortgages.
一切都以十年期国债为基准，而十年期国债仍在正常范围内。
Everything keys off of the ten year and the ten year is still within range.
它一直在横盘整理。
It's been going sideways.
对。
Yeah.
它处于区间的高端，但自2023年9月以来一直在这个区间内横盘整理。
It's at the upper end of its range, but it's been going sideways in this range since September 2023.
所以如果你告诉我，如果你能告诉我，好吧，我确定十年期国债会突破它的区间，到冬天会到五五，我会说，我会说风险资产会承压，但我会说那会给风险资产带来压力。
So if you tell me, if you could tell me, okay, I know with certainty that the ten year will break out of its range and it'll be five, five by the winter, I would say, I would say self risk assets, but I would say that that would put pressure on risk assets.
绝对。
Absolutely.
而我们现在不是这种情况。
And that's not where we are.
嗯，我很高兴你提到这一点，因为那就是空头们现在认为市场会走向的地方。
Well, I'm really glad you brought that up because that is where the bears now believe the puck is going.
十年期国债。
The ten year.
对。
Yeah.
看图。
Chart on.
好的。
Okay.
这是来自罗宾·布鲁克斯的观点，我不会说他是永远看空的人，但他肯定更偏悲观一些。
So this this comes from Robin Brooks who is I'm I'm not gonna say a permabear, but definitely more on the pessimistic side.
他是英国人吗？
Is he British?
明白了。
Got it.
我不太清楚，但名字是罗宾？
I don't I don't know, but first name Robin?
在美国，我们会给男孩取名叫罗宾吗？
Do we name boys Robin in The United States?
自从《小熊维尼》之后就不这么叫了。
Not not since Winnie the Pooh.
那是克里斯托弗·罗宾。
And that was Christopher Robbins.
对。
Yes.
所以
So
那甚至不是他的名。
that wasn't even his first name.
不管
Either
怎样。
way.
我觉得美国最后一个叫罗宾的男性是蝙蝠侠的搭档。
I think the last male Robin born in The United States was Batman's sidekick.
不对。
No.
威廉姆斯。
Williams.
哦，说得对。
Oh, that's a good call.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
这个说法不错。
That's a good call.
总之，我们姑且说他是英国人，但他其实是个非常体贴的人，也是个很棒的作家。我想趁这个图表还在，给你看看这个。
Anyway, we're gonna go ahead and say allegedly British, but he's a I mean, he's a super thoughtful guy, great writer, and, I wanted to show you this chart while we have it up.
这是十年期远期政府债券收益率，他展示的是全球的情况，只有一个主要例外，就是瑞士。
This is ten year ten year forward government bond yields, and he's showing you all over the world with one major exception, Switzerland.
这就是正在发生的事。
This is happening.
那什么是十年期远期呢？
And what is a ten year ten year forward?
就是市场认为十年后的十年期收益率会是多少。
It's what the market thinks the ten year yield will be ten years from now.
所以你会看到所有这些收益率都集中在4%到7%之间，这涵盖了每个大洲、每个发达市场。
And so you're seeing all these yields clustering between 47%, and this is every continent, every developed market.
英国也在其中。
The UK is in here.
美国也在其中。
The US is in here.
所以让我引用一下罗宾的话，因为他在这个话题上比我们聪明，而且肯定比我们更了解。
And so let me just, you know, let me just quote Robin because he's smarter than us on this topic and certainly has a better handle on it.
十年期远期国债收益率。
Ten year ten year forward bond yields.
市场对十年后十年期收益率的定价在全球各地都在上升，但在债务存量高、政治功能失调严重的地方上升得最多。
What market's price for the ten year yield ten years from now are rising all over the place, but they're up the most where the stock of debt is high and political dysfunction is acute.
我在周日的直播中把日本列为深度困境的国家。
I fingered Japan as deeply distressed in Sunday's livestream.
他百分之百说对了。
He did 100%.
说得好。
A shot.
你真是个孩子。
You're such a child.
事实上，过去十天里，日本十年期远期收益率涨幅最大，其次是英国、法国和意大利。
As it happens, Japan's ten year ten year forward yield is up most over the past ten days, followed by The UK, France, and Italy.
市场正在聚焦最脆弱的地方。
Markets are homing in on the most vulnerable places.
显然，问题是什么引发了这次抛售。
There's obviously the question of what sparked the sell off.
自7月29日美联储上次会议以来，美国收益率曲线出现了非常明显的熊市陡峭化。
US yield curve has seen very pronounced bear steepening since the last Fed meeting on July 29.
这一直在推高各地的长期收益率。
That's been dragging up the long term yields everywhere.
油价飙升，债券不喜欢不稳定。
Spike in oil, bonds don't like instability.
波斯湾的战争还在继续。
The war in the Persian Gulf is still on fire.
在我看来，这种互相指责并没有抓住重点。
This kind of finger pointing misses the point in my opinion.
当你背负大量债务，并且持续维持不可持续的巨额财政赤字时，任何突如其来的冲击都可能让你陷入困境。
When you have a lot of debt, run unsustainably large budget deficits, you're vulnerable to any old shock that comes along.
问题不在于冲击本身，而在于我们在全球范围内对财政政策的处理一团糟。
It's not about the shock, but instead the mess we are making of fiscal policy on a global scale.
所以到处都在疯狂举债。
So it's a dead binge everywhere.
没有人觉得会立刻有什么后果。
Nobody thinks there's any consequences all at once.
现在企业发行债券的利率已经高到我们很久没见过的水平了，这真的变得太过分了，你说得对。
Now you have corporates issuing issuing bonds at the highest rates that we've seen in a really long time, and it's just it's become too you're right.
确实太过分了。
It's become too much.
嗯，这是个乐观的看法，而且他说得对。
Well, an optimistic take, and he's right.
他说的每一点都对，那些被认为政治最不稳定、赤字最高的国家，受到的惩罚也最重。
Like, everything that he said is right that the comp the countries that have the most perceived political instability, the highest deficits, like they're being punished the hardest.
另一点是，这些收益率其实挺正常的。
The other point is these these yields are kind of normal.
我们说的不是百分之七、八、九那种，那才叫天哪，大家注意了。
We're not talking about seven, eight, 9% where it's like, holy shit, guys.
我们有大麻烦了。
We have a major issue.
我们会面临资金危机。
We're gonna have, like, a funding crisis.
但现在不是这种情况。
That's not what's happening.
这些利率相当正常，而且是在人工智能繁荣和经济增长可能加快的背景下出现的。
These are pretty normal rates, and they're happening with the backdrop of an AI boom and potentially higher economic growth.
所以我觉得这也不完全是百分之百的悲观。
So I don't think it's like a 100% glass half half empty.
回到杰夫·考克斯。
Back to Jeff Cox.
美国出现了预算缺口，听听这些数字。
The US saw a budget shortfall of listen to these numbers.
7月份是4323亿美元，这是自2021年3月以来最大的单月增幅，这将锁定整个财年2万亿美元的赤字，财年于9月30日结束。
432,300,000,000 in July, the widest single month gain since March 2021, and that would lock in a $2,000,000,000,000 deficit for the full fiscal year, which ends on September 30.
所以我提到总政府债务是40万亿美元，其中公众持有的部分即将达到GDP的100%。
So I mentioned 40,000,000,000,000 is total government debt, and the public portion of that 40,000,000,000,000 is about to hit a 100% of GDP.
嗯，对投资者来说是个好消息。
Well, good for good news for investors.
还有一个。
One more.
债务融资成本。
Debt financing costs.
这是另一个大问题。
This is the other big one.
到7月为止是1.1万亿美元，最终会达到1.37万亿美元。
1,100,000,000,000 through July will hit 1,370,000,000,000.
这仅仅是偿还债务的成本。
That's just the cost of servicing debt.
这比2025年增加了840亿美元，而现在才刚到8月。
That's up 84,000,000,000 over 2025, and we're only in August.
政府现在在债务融资上的支出，也就是支付债务利息而不是偿还本金，将超过除医疗保险和社会保障以外的任何预算项目。
The government will now spend more money on debt financing, not paying down debt, paying the interest on the debt than anything else in the budget other than Medicare and Social Security.
他们付利息给谁呢，朋友？
Who are they paying the interest to, my friend?
我们。
Us.
债务的持有者。
The holders of the debt.
所以，而且这种情况越来越明显。
So and it's increasingly is.
蜘蛛侠表情包。
Spider Man meme.
越来越像是美国投资者在持有这些债务。
It's increasingly US investors.
所以如果政府想继续维持这种支出狂欢，我不确定我是否完全支持，但我不确定，我不知道这有多严重。
So if the government wants to keep, funding this party of spending, I don't know that I'm all for it, but it's I don't I don't know I don't know how bad it is.
我听着呢。
I listen.
我理解这些担忧。
I I get the concerns.
我们一会儿会讨论企业债务和资产负债表的问题。
We're gonna talk about we're gonna talk about corporate debt and balance sheet stuff in a second.
最后我想指出，美国公司今年迄今已发行了1.7万亿美元的债券。
I would just lastly point out, US companies have issued 1,700,000,000,000 in bonds year to date.
这比去年高出27%，而且比去年全年的总和还要多。
That's 27% above last year and more than all of last year combined.
这是为什么？大家都在花什么钱？
That is a why would what what what's with all the spending?
我觉得就像喝醉的水手一样。
It's like drunken sailors, I say.
嗯，那是债务，不是支出，债务发行是为了支撑支出。
Well, that's debt not spending debt issuance to fuel the the spending.
你知道吗？
You know what?
我周一在电视上也说过这个。
And I said this on I said this on TV on Monday.
我参加了收盘钟节目。
I did closing bell.
除非艾德·亚德尼告诉我该担心债券义警了，否则我不会担心。
Until Ed Yardeni tells me to worry about, bond vigilantes, I'm not going to.
而且我，我，他创造了这个说法，而且在这篇文章里他最后说了算。
And I'll I'll he coined the term, and he got the last word in this piece.
债券市场实际上终于开始正常运作了。
The bond market is actually finally working the way it should work.
它在高效地分配资本。
It's allocating capital efficiently.
太好了。
Great.
我喜欢这样。
I love it.
以前美联储把收益率压到接近零，操纵债券市场的时候，它可不是这样的。
It wasn't doing that when the Fed was rigging the bond market by keeping the yield close to zero.
所以这算是回到了市场驱动的利率。
So this is kind of back to market driven interest rates.
他对这个挺乐观的。
He's like sanguine about it.
所以我的收益率曲线也是这样的。
So I so my yield curve is that I am too.
曲线。
Curve.
看起来很正常。
It looks normal.
这就是收益率曲线的样子。
This is what a yield curve look.
这就是教科书上的收益率曲线。
This is what a textbook yield curve looks like.
挺好的。
Fine.
我觉得挺好的。
It's I It's fine.
我觉得没错。
I I think that's right.
我就是觉得，5%这个数字让大家有点懵，因为已经很久没见过了。
I just think the five handle is throwing people because of how long it's been.
谁懵了？
Who's it throwing?
其实这就是那个
And that's really what the
懵的是那些记者和评论员。
It's throwing it's throwing journalists and pundits.
市场可没懵。
The market is not throwing.
哦，聊天室里的人也这么说。
Do you oh, people in the chat are saying this.
你觉得是不是因为，比如，现在是夏天，一两周都比较清淡。
Do you think it's just because, like, it's like a slow summer week or two.
就像，大家都去汉普顿了。
Like, everyone's in the Hamptons.
新闻节奏一直很慢。
The news flow has been slow.
财报季基本结束了，所以他们拿这个来博眼球。
Earnings are mostly over, and so they're using this as a to get attention.
哦，我还以为你说的是市场因此才有反应呢。
Oh, I don't I thought you said that's why the markets are responding.
我正想说，大家总是手机不离手。
I was gonna say people are always on their phone.
我觉得不管人在哪里，在汉普顿还是别的地方，都没关系。
I don't think that matters where people are if they're in the Hamptons or no.
我觉得，听我说。
I think it's listen.
我，我倒是觉得，不管一年中的什么时候，这个故事都会被报道。
I I would expect peep I would expect this story to be covered regardless of the time of the year.
这确实是个新闻。
It is a story.
这是一个能影响市场的重大消息。
This is a this is a market moving story.
我明白。
I get
我们快速过一下图表。
Let's place through the charts real quick.
这是十年期国债的走势，先给大家铺垫一下。
Here's the ten year treasury just to set the table for you guys.
正如迈克尔所说，不。
To Michael's point No.
这和那个关系不大。
Much to do with that.
抱歉。
Sorry.
你说得对。
You're right.
是我的错。
My bad.
其实没什么大不了的。
Was just going much to do about nothing.
我们现在十年期收益率上涨了51个基点，但比2023年的高点还低25个基点。
We are, up 51 basis points on the ten year, but we are 25 basis points below the twenty twenty three high.
感谢图表小哥、马特和肖恩提供的这些图表。
Thanks to Chart Kid, Matt, and Sean for for these visuals.
这是大家一直在讨论的三十年期收益率。
Here's the thirty year that everyone's carrying on about.
看吧。
Look.
不可否认，它处于过去五年的区间上沿，但过去五年又能说明什么呢？
Undeniably, it's at the upper end of its range over the last five years, but what the hell does the last five years mean?
我们刚刚经历了疫情。
We we came out of a pandemic.
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那是一个完全不正常的起点。
It was a totally abnormal starting point.
这是收益率曲线，再看一次。
Here's the, yield curve one more time.
而且，再次提到迈克尔的观点，收益率曲线本来就应该是弯曲的。
And, again, to Michael's point, this the yield curve is supposed to curve.
它应该长这样。
It's it should look like this.
我觉得我们不想看到它飙到6%，但只要它是渐进的，这些利率对30年期债券来说并不算离谱。
I don't think we wanna see it race to 6%, but so long as it's somewhat gradual, these are not, like, insane rates for a 30, bond.
比如，债券持有人应该要求5%或更高的回报，才愿意把钱锁定那么长时间。
Like, the the bondholder should demand 5% or more to put to to lock their money up for that period of time.
对。
Yeah.
好的。
Alright.
继续聊债务担忧这个话题。
Sticking with the topic of of debt concerns.
表外项目会一直是个热门话题，直到，怎么说呢，它不会消失的。
The off balance sheet stuff is going to be a perpetual topic until, I don't know, it's not going away.
说实话，这才刚刚开始。
It's just starting, frankly.
《华尔街日报》报道了这件事，他们展示了同比变化百分比。
So The Wall Street Journal did a story about this, and they showed the percentage change from a from a year earlier.
我们花了好多时间讨论资本支出，说它要达到一万亿美元。
And we we spend all this time talking about CapEx, how it's supposed to reach a trillion dollars.
你能给观众解释一下什么是表外项目吗？
Can you explain what it is off balance sheet for for the viewers?
比如，Meta 就是个很好的例子。
So for so Meta is a great example.
Meta 正在路易斯安那州建一个数据中心，叫 Hyperion，但他们不是直接掏钱建的。
Meta is building a data center, the Hyperion data center in Louisiana, but they are not paying for it directly.
这笔钱不会出现在他们的资产负债表上。
It is not going on their balance sheet.
所以理论上，债券持有人不会因此惩罚他们，投资者也不会，因为这笔钱不在他们的资产负债表上。
And therefore, theoretically, bondholders are not punishing them because or investors are not punishing them because it's not on their balance sheet.
所以Blue Owl和其他投资者，还有一个独立的实体。
So Blue Owl and other investors, and there's a separate entity.
他们承担了所有的信用风险。
They take in all the credit risk.
当然，Meta在背后兜底。
Of course, Meta is backstopping this.
所以不管是在表内还是表外，其实都一样。
So it doesn't matter off balance sheet on balance sheet.
这并没有让任何人感到意外。
This is not catching anybody by surprise.
2008年，当船沉没时，你看看所有持有这些有毒资产的保险公司，大家都说，等等，什么？
In 2008, all when the ship blew up and you looked at all of the insurance company holdings that were holding all this toxic paper, everybody was like, wait, what?
我们到底是怎么走到这一步的？
How the hell did we get here?
比如说，那是什么？
Like, what is it?
比如说，什么是CD？什么是CDO的平方？
Like, what is a CD What is a CDO squared?
这些工具现在是什么？
What are these instruments today?
我们经常
Talk about
提到它们。
them all the time.
相比之下，这个是完全公开透明的。
In comparison, this is what this is way out in the open.
没有人措手不及。
Nobody has caught off guard.
恰恰相反。
It's the opposite.
所以，这本身作为下一个引爆市场的东西，我觉得有可能，但通常它不是那个直接摆在我们面前的东西。
So this in and of itself being like the next thing to blow up the market, I suppose it could be, but it's usually not the thing that is staring us right in the face.
总之，我们谈到资本支出，你看那些数字，会说，天哪，那是个大数字。
So anyway, we speak about the CapEx and you look at the numbers, you say, holy cow, that's a, that's a big number.
但相比之下，它们看起来就小了，至少从资产负债表外的年度变化来看是这样。
They look small in comparison, at least in terms of like the year over year change for what's going on off the balance sheet.
比如苹果，抱歉。
An Apple, for example I'm sorry.
比如Alphabet。
Alphabet, for example.
看看这个。
Look at this.
所以资本支出这些数字更大，但表外负债同比上涨了800%。
So the CapEx and the these are bigger numbers, but the the off balance sheet obligations are up 800% year over year.
那会计规则是这样的。
And here's how the accounting rules work.
我之前提到过Meta。
So I spoke about Meta earlier.
他们的Hyperion租赁义务在开始支付租金之前，会一直留在资产负债表外。
Their Hyperion lease obligation will remain off balance sheet until it starts paying rent.
好的。
Alright.
再说一次，这个是在日历上的。
Again, this is on the calendar.
我记得是2029年。
I think it's 2029.
所以这是全世界每个分析师都能建模的东西。
So this is something that every analyst in the world can model.
这已经反映在股价里了。
It's in the price of the stock.
这已经反映在信用违约互换的价格里了。
It's in the price of the credit default swaps.
尽管如此，这些数字还是非常大、非常大。
Nevertheless, these are large, large numbers.
市场似乎对此不太担心，你感到意外吗？
Are you surprised that the market seems to be less concerned with it?
还是说，你觉得实际上Meta的股东肯定很担心这件事？
Or do you think that, no, actually, Meta stockholders are definitely concerned with this?
不。
No.
我觉得市场确实担心这件事，而且我认为这压制了像Meta这样的股票。
I think I think the market is concerned with it, and I think it's kept a lid on stocks like Meta.
而且，你知道，这对我来说一直是个问题，一直是个问题，连FaceTime都变了样。
And, you know, it's it's been problematic it's been problematic for FaceTiming me for a change.
是的。
Yeah.
这简直就像对牛弹琴。
It's it's like talking to a wall.
我几乎想现在就接电话，在直播里跟他把这事说清楚，但我打算……
I almost wanna take I almost wanna take the call and do this with him on air right now, but I'm gonna
我觉得他设了闹钟，周二早上五点半会给我们打电话。
I think he has I think he has an alarm set to call us Tuesday at 05:30.
我觉得他在这件事上有点心理障碍。
I think he has, like, a mental block about this.
我们告诉他，我不知道。
We tell him I don't know.
这个节目我们做了多久了？
How how long have been doing this show?
七年了？
Seven years?
我觉得他有……
I think he has
几点？
a o'clock?
我真想宰了这家伙。
I'm gonna kill this guy.
好吧。
Alright.
把这些东西放在表外处理的目的也很有意思。
Purpose of doing these things off balance sheet is really interesting too.
比如说，假设你是黑石、蓝猫头鹰或者KKR，你要去为一个超大型数据中心项目融资。
So let's say you're Blackstone or Blue Owl or KKR or whoever is gonna finance, a a gigantic data center project.
对吧？
Right?
因为他们不是建小型的。
Because they're not building little ones.
在这个阶段，他们只建超大型的。
They're only building gigantic ones at this stage in the game.
你去找那些会用投资和固定收益来资助这个项目的人。
You you go to the people who are gonna fund this with their investments and their fixed income investors.
他们不是那种炒股的人。
They're not like stock people.
他们只想要拿回本金加利息。
They just want the money back plus interest.
你跟他们说，租户是Meta，Meta其实不会承担任何债务，但他们会在项目里持有一点股权。
You go to them and say, the tenant is Meta, and Meta actually is not gonna take on any debt, but they they're gonna own a little bit of equity in the project.
而且他们愿意承诺，比如，签十年的租约，具体细节我不太清楚，我们说的那个项目。
And they're willing to commit to, like, ten years, lease on the I don't know what the details are for the one that we're talking about.
但Meta就是说，我们会付十年的租金。
But, like, Meta is saying we will pay the rent for ten years.
好。
Okay.
这对那些私人信贷投资组合经理来说，真的很容易推销，因为他们一看就觉得，行。
That's a really easy sale to people that are private credit portfolio managers because they look at it like, alright.
基本上，这就像是Meta的债券，但又不是。
Basically, it's a meta bond, but it's not.
比如说，这不太清楚，因为我们还没见过这么大的项目最后闹到法庭上。
Like, there are the it's not clear because we've never seen a big one of these, end up in court.
到底谁才是最终真正要负责的人？
Like, who's really finally finally finally finally on the hook?
我们知道的是，这些都是数十亿美元的大项目。
What we do know is these are multibillion dollar projects.
它们极其复杂，成本高昂。
They're extremely complicated, expensive.
而且需要很长时间。
They take a really long time.
而且，你知道，我们还没见过科技巨头和东海岸的私募股权公司打官司，那场面简直让人摸不着头脑。
And, you know, we've we haven't seen a tech giant in a courtroom battle against an East Coast private equity firm that's like, what the fuck?
你说你要退出是什么意思？
What do you mean you're pulling out?
你说你不用了是什么意思？你说你不在乎是什么意思？
What do you mean you're not using the what what what do you mean you don't care?
我们从来没见过这种情况。
Like, we've never seen it.
我相信总有一天会发生这种事。
I have to believe this is going to happen at some point.
不是所有这些算力和数据中心都会成为好项目。
Not all of this compute and all of these data centers are gonna turn out to be good projects.
虽然法律上有规定，但并没有一个实际的路线图来应对这些项目如果出问题的情况。
It's just there's not really a there are laws on the books, but there's not really a practical road map for what these things look like should they come undone.
我觉得，虽然这绝对不是我擅长的领域，但合同里肯定把所有条款和选项都写得很清楚。
I think, and this is definitely outside my lane, that all of the terms and options of the deal are very much specified in the contract.
你可以想象，为了把这些东西凑在一起，花了多少律师费。
You can only imagine the amount of legal fees that's going on to to put these things together.
对。
Yeah.
Meta披露了3470亿美元的租赁总负债，这些租赁还没开始生效。
Meta disclosed 347,000,000,000 in total obligations for leases that haven't kicked in yet.
我希望他们都能处理好这些。
I hope they're good for them all.
我是真的希望。
I will I really do.
我今天读了一篇文章，说Meta可能会输掉官司，有29个州在起诉他们，关于儿童保护的问题。
Well I read an art I read an article today that Meta is probably gonna lose, there were 29 states suing them over child protection.
他们可能得支付高达2000亿美元的罚款。
They're they might have to pay as much as $200,000,000,000 in fines.
而且这不是联邦层面的，不能打电话给特朗普就能摆平。
And this is not federal where you can call Donald Trump and and get yourself out of it.
这是州层面的。
This is states.
如果他们得支付数千亿美元的罚款，那所有这些表外项目的评级会怎么样？
If they have to pay hundreds of billions in fines, what does that mean for all the ratings on all this off balance sheet stuff?
更别提Meta自己的债务了。
Not to mention Meta's own debt.
这肯定不是什么好事。
It can't be good.
不能被视为积极的发展。
Be considered a positive development.
这股票看起来真的很糟糕。
The stock looks really shitty.
约翰，把财报后的股价反应调出来。
John, throw up the earnings reaction.
这个图表格式是我从沃伦·帕兹和费尔南多那里偷来的。
So I stole this chart format from Warren Paz and Fernando.
他们做得很好，而且他们之前也做过这种图表。
They do great work, and they've they've created this chart before.
看看这些股票在财报发布前后的表现。
Looking at what happens to these stocks going into and coming out of earnings.
好的。
All right.
所以时间零点就是他们发布财报的时候，你会看到微软和亚马逊之间有个巨大的差异，微软因为云数据获得了巨大的提升。
So time zero is you're you're lining up when they all reported and you see a big, big, big difference between Microsoft, which got the gigantic boost from the cloud data.
亚马逊和Meta也是同样的道理。
Same thing with Amazon versus Meta.
Meta就是自己给自己找麻烦。
Meta can't get out of its own way.
股价正在逼近近期低点。
The stock is is approaching recent lows.
看起来糟透了。
It looks terrible.
我觉得大家看到这个就会想，还记得Meta以前那种轻资产、高盈利增长、利润率惊人的样子吗？
I think people are I think people are just looking at this and saying, remember when Meta was like this asset light, high earnings growth, crazy profit margin thing?
天哪，真希望还能回到那个时候。
Man, I wish I wish we had those days back.
我真希望还记得它以前是个广告公司的时候。
I wish I remember when this was an advertising company?
现在它变成了一个数据工厂业务，我们觉得总有一天他们会认输，把这些算力租出去，那才是能扭转股价的事情。
And now it's a data factory business, and we think at some point, they'll cry uncle and rent all this compute out, and that'll be the thing that turns the stock.
我问你个问题。
Let me ask you this.
目前他们说自己不会这么做。
For now, they're saying they're not doing that.
他们说我们要自己用这些算力。
They're saying we're gonna use the compute ourselves.
你们签了三千五百亿美元的租赁合同？
You are $350,000,000,000 worth of leases?
你确定吗？
Are you sure?
那可能是他们最后能用的招数，就是说，好吧。
That's probably the thing that that the last lever they can pull is to say, alright.
我们可能用不了这么多算力。
We probably don't need all of this compute.
我不确定，但亚马逊的情况是这样的。
I don't Here's deal with here's the deal with Amazon or something.
我觉得Meta的业绩其实挺可预测的。
I think the likelihood of I think Meta's earnings are fairly predictable.
对吧？
Right?
它不像……它可是全球最大的广告机器之一，仅次于谷歌。
It is not like a it is it is the biggest advertising machine on the planet except for Google.
你大概能猜到会是什么结果。
You more or less know what you're going to get.
虽然不知道具体支出是多少，但大致上你能根据他们的业绩推测出来。
You don't know what the spend is going to be, but you more or less you could you could triangulate around their earnings.
明白吗？
Okay?
所以现在它的市盈率是未来收益的17倍。随着这些坏消息慢慢消化，它能跌到多低呢？
So right now, it's trading at 17 times forward earnings As all this bad news is working its way through the python, how low can this thing get?
它能跌到13倍吗？
Can it get down to 13 times?
会不会跌到像伯克希尔入股那种程度？
Could it get down to, like, Berkshire taking a stake in it?
问题是
The thing is
你没法预测恐慌。
that you can't model panic.
我不是说Meta的股票一定会出现恐慌，但Oracle的股票确实出现过恐慌。
And I'm not suggesting there's going to be a panic in Meta stock, but there was a panic in Oracle stock.
而且还在持续。
It's ongoing.
这是一种慢动作的恐慌，而Oracle其实基本面很好。
It's a slow motion panic, and Oracle's got a great bit.
你知道，甲骨文的业务其实非常出色。
You know, Oracle's got an amazing business.
抛开
Throw out
债务不谈。
the credit.
业务质量相当高。
As good a business.
我不确定它是否比得上Meta，但绝对是个好业务。
I don't know if it's as good a business as Meta's, but it's a great business.
几十年来，甲骨文的股东一直赚钱，但股价还是出现了恐慌性下跌。
People have made money as Oracle shareholders for decades, and there was a panic in the equity.
股价跌了
Stocks down
而这一切都是债务引起的。
And it and it was caused by the debt.
对。
Yeah.
你说得对。
You're right.
约翰，我们停一下，看美国银行的第二张图表。
John, let's stop exhibit two from from Bank of America.
他们提到，美国超大规模企业的投资级债务，从2025年底的2880亿美元，到2027年底可能增加到6590亿美元。
So they say hyperscaler US investment grade index debt can go from $288,000,000,000 at year end twenty five to six hundred fifty nine billion dollars by year end '27.
我觉得他们有可能超过美国六大银行，这听起来有点离谱。
I guess it's conceivable that they could pass the big six US banks, which is absurd.
再说一次，这是资产负债表上的数字。
And again, this is what's on the balance sheet.
也就是说，他们在利用公开债务市场融资。
Like, this is them tapping the public debt market.
乔什，你说得对。
And Josh, you're right.
这显然对某些公司的影响比其他公司更大。
This is obviously, obviously weighing on, on some names more so than others.
比如甲骨文。
Oracle, for example.
甲骨文债务特别多，特别特别多。
So Oracle has a ton of debt, a ton, ton, ton of debt.
他们和OpenAI的合同绑得很紧，而且信用违约互换和其他大型云服务商完全不一样。
They are super tied up with the contract with OpenAI and the credit default swaps look nothing like the other hyperscalers.
所以我不觉得
So I don't
你看这个，你看这个，兄弟。
I mean, this is look at look at this, dude.
好吧。
Alright.
所以我不认为市场真的在定价甲骨文甚至Meta可能违约的风险。
So I don't necessarily think that the market is legitimately pricing in even the potential of a default with Meta or even Oracle for that matter.
我觉得，再说一次，这不是我的专业领域，我觉得这很大程度上是对冲和交易，是一种快速做空AI交易的方式。
I think and again, outside my lane, I think a lot of this is hedging and trading and a quick way to bet against the AI trade.
我觉得没有人真的会买五年期的信用违约互换，花一百万美元去保护一千万美元。
I don't think that anybody is actually buying a five year credit default swap, paying a million dollars to protect 10,000,000.
所以就拿甲骨文来说吧，好的，那是211个基点。
So so for Oracle, for example, alright, that's 211 basis points.
那就是每年20万美元，保护一千万美元。
It's $200,000 a year and $10,000,000 worth of production.
五年下来要花你一百万美元。
It's gonna cost you a million dollars over five years.
我觉得没人真的会这么干。
I don't think anybody's actually laying that out.
我觉得这更像是一种交易工具。
I think it's more of a trading vehicle.
你怎么看？
What do you think?
对。
Right.
所以人们是在布局。
So people are positioning.
对。
Right.
因为如果出现危机，他们就已经准备好了。
Because if there is a crisis, they'll be positioned.
这是获得大量杠杆的好方法。
And this is a great way to get a lot of leverage there.
你确实能获得很大的杠杆。
You get a lot of leverage.
你能看到非常快速的波动，然后你还得指望对手方愿意合理定价并履行交易，但那就是另一回事了。
You get a really rapid move, and, then you gotta hope the counterparty is is willing to market appropriately and make good on the on the trade, but that's that's a whole other story.
我想再看一次那个图表。
I think one one more time with that chart.
其他那些名字，Meta、Alphabet、微软、亚马逊、英伟达，那些小幅上涨的曲线，看起来是不是都已经涨到头了？
Do any of these little nudges up in the other names, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, do any of these other squiggly lines look like they're finished going higher?
我觉得它们都会突破100。
I think this this I think they all get over a 100.
好的。
Alright.
行。
Fine.
利差扩大100个基点。
100 basis points in spread.
我觉得所有都会。
I think all of them.
那么，随着这种情况发展，这对股市会有什么影响呢？
Well, what does this do to the equities is the question as that as that plays out?
到目前为止，影响不大。
So far, not a whole lot.
太疯狂了，有多少股票完全依赖这个不爆掉。
It's crazy how many stocks are 100% reliant on this not blowing out.
但恰恰相反。
But it but it's the opposite.
整个纳斯达克。
The entire Nasdaq.
是的，重新……
The re yes.
但甲骨文的利差之所以看起来那样，是因为股票本身。
But the reason why Oracle's, spread looks like that is because of the equity.
对。
Yeah.
同意。
Agree.
因为乔治·索罗斯提出了一个概念叫反身性，就是说资产的价格决定了企业、主权政府或其他实体的现实。
Because it's, George Soros, created this term called reflexivity, where the prices for an asset dictate the reality for a business or a sovereign government or whatever the case may be.
但这就形成了一个反馈循环，现实世界的情况会恶化，然后再次反映到价格上。
But then it's like a feedback loop where then things worsen in the real world, which then reflects again back into prices.
然后你会看到这种螺旋，它可以是向上的。
And you get sort of this spiral, and that can be up.
不总是负面的。
It's not always negative.
可能是向上或向下的。
That could be upward or downward.
所以股票，有时候当股市表现好的时候，比如说公司更容易招到优秀的工程师。
So stocks, sometimes when things are going well in the stock market, let's say it's easier for them to recruit great engineers.
没错。
Exactly.
或者更容易和其他公司达成交易，因为大家都想要那种光环效应。
Or it's easier for them to do deals with other companies because everybody wants that halo effect.
现在一个很好的例子就是Anthropic。
A really great example of that right now is Anthropic.
他们被视为AI领域的领头羊。
They're seen as, like, the leader in AI.
所以每家公司都想请他们来开会或者谈合作，这就意味着更多的合同，估值也就不断攀升。
Therefore, every company wants to bring them in for meetings or do deals with them, which means more contracts, which means the valuation keeps going higher.
而且我觉得周一的时候，Anthropic的消息出来了。
And I think anthropic on Monday, the news came out.
收入同比增长了11倍。
Revenue was up 11 x over a year.
约翰，这太夸张了，我们到底在看什么？
John, some some ridiculous what what are we looking at?
过去十二个月的收入。
Trailing twelve month revenue.
Anthropic在跟投资者洽谈时刚刚披露了这些数据。
Anthropic just disclosed as they're talking to investors.
年化收入达到650亿美元。
$65,000,000,000 annual run rate.
他们现在就是这个水平。
That's where they are.
天哪。
Oh my god.
看右边
Look at the right
图表的那一边。
side of the chart.
三年前还是零？
From zero three years ago?
这是真的吗？
Is that accurate?
对。
Yeah.
他们是不是……我记得他们第一笔收入是在2023年3月。哦
Did they I think their first dollar was March 23 Oh
天哪。
my god.
的收入。
Of revenue.
所以Netflix在过去十二个月里赚了490亿美元。
So Netflix does $49,000,000,000 in the last twelve months.
可口可乐是510亿。
Coca Cola did 51.
优步是550亿。
Uber did 55.
这简直太疯狂了。
I mean, this is insane.
太疯狂了。
Insane.
这真是
This is
正是这个让我们能够不去看，或者说不仅仅是忽略，而是心里能接受2027年每年一万亿美元的资本支出。
the thing that's enabling us to look past or or not even look past, but to mentally be comfortable with a trillion dollars in annual CapEx in 2027.
推动这一切的是收入，他们把这些收入交给数据中心，然后说谢谢你们让这一切持续下去。
What's driving it is the revenue, and they're taking that revenue and they're handing it over to the data centers and saying thank you for perpetuating this.
三个月后我们会带着另一大笔收入回来的。
We'll be back with another fistful of revenue in three months.
就像音乐在播放一样。
Like The music is playing.
现在音乐确实在播放，而且你知道，那些看空的人会说，这太疯狂了。
This is the music is is very much playing, and, you know, the the the bears would point out, like, this is nuts.
先不提Gemini，这么多都押在两家私有公司上。
Putting Gemini aside, so much riding on two privately held companies.
这绝对太疯狂了。
It is absolutely crazy.
确实是，确实是，确实是，有趣的时刻。
It is it is it is, interesting times.
我们一直在指出
We've been pointing
这一点，我们一直在指出这一点已经
that out for we've been pointing that out for a
有一段时间了。
while.
是的。
Yeah.
不。
No.
好的。
Okay.
关于Workday的传闻，我都不知道最新情况是什么。
Rumors on Workday, and I don't even know what the latest is.
我知道这些事情在变化。
I I know these things are moving.
好的。
Okay.
让我说说上周的新闻，然后你可以好好庆祝一下。
What let me let me say what the news was last week, and then you could take a victory lap.
周四有消息说，银湖资本正在洽谈收购Workday，这是一家做人力资源软件的公司。
On Thursday, news broke that Silver Lake was in talks to acquire Workday, a human resource software company.
股价一下子涨了19%。
The stock shot up 19%.
自六月底以来，Workday的股价已经上涨了55%。
It halted, 55% growth in Workday shares since late June.
这可能表明，AI驱动的SaaS末日论正在消退。
A possible sign, the AI driven SaaS pocalypse is ebbing.
我之前确实说过，我们得看到这些知名公司中有一家被私有化，才能真正说，SaaS末日论的崩盘要结束了，至少股价上是这样。
I did say we have to see one of these prominent ones in a take private in order to truly say, we're gonna stop with the SaaS pocalypse meltdown, at least in the stock prices.
也许言论上还不一定。
Maybe not in the rhetoric.
这件事发生的时候你的反应是什么？之后又发生了什么？
What was your reaction when this happened, and what's happened since?
我的反应是马上卖掉了。
My reaction is I sold right away.
非常感谢，在02:18的时候。
Thank you very much at 02:18.
我并不是在庆祝胜利，因为我对Workday和ServiceNow有过很多次尝试，但并没有取得太大的领先。
And I'm not taking a victory lap because I I took I took plenty of stabs at Workday and ServiceNow and didn't come out that far ahead.
虽然能赢一次也不错。
Although it was nice to get one victory.
但你问的更大的问题是，这结束了吗？
But the bigger question that you asked is, is it over?
我们能不能说这些横向公司的底部已经出现了？
Is it can we say that that the bottom is in for these horizontal names?
不是底部，而是那段时间你可以
Not the bottom is the period of time where you could
想什么时候随便做空它们都行。
just mindlessly short any of them anytime you wanted.
对，没错。
Well, yeah.
那已经结束了。
That's done.
已经结束了。
The it's over.
那部分已经结束了。
That part is over.
我觉得Palantir和CrowdStrike会说，哦，是吗？
I think Palantir and CrowdStrike said, oh, yeah?
想继续做空就继续吧。
Feel feel free to remain short.
看着我的股价翻倍吧。
Watch watch as my share price doubles
八周之内。
in eight weeks.
那段不分青红皂白抛售所有东西的日子，包括过去的软件股、Visa、万事达、评级机构、还有嘉信理财。
That part of indiscriminately selling everything past software, Visa and Mastercard, the ratings agencies, Schwab.
对。
Yeah.
谢天谢地。
That thank God.
那段已经结束了。
That's done.
确实如此。
That's been right.
已经结束了。
It's been over.
所以那段已经翻篇了。
So that episode's been over.
不过我不确定Workday、ServiceNow和Atlasia是不是也这样，它们公布的业绩和季度数据都很不错。
I don't know though that Workday and ServiceNow and, Atlasia, which reported great earnings, great quarter.
我不确定Salesforce是不是已经摆脱困境了。
Don't know that Salesforce is out of the woods.
我不确定一年后Salesforce的股价不会更低。
I don't know that Salesforce price is not gonna be lower a year from now.
我不确定这事是不是已经板上钉钉了。
I don't know that it's on the table.
我觉得他们可能确实感到压力有所缓解，但他们肯定不觉得自己已经解决了长期问题。
I think they they probably feel a little bit of pressure coming off, but they definitely don't feel like they've solved the longer term issue.
但我不觉得他们会像丘吉尔战时内阁那样，在地下室里戴着钢盔跑来跑去。
But I I don't think that they're running around in helmets in the basement of the building like Churchill's war room.
我觉得今年春天他们确实是这样，而且我觉得那种状态看起来……
I don't I think that they very much were this spring, and I think that that look.
这些人，他们都说，我们只管做好自己的业务。
These guys, they all say, we just take care of the business.
股价自己会照顾自己。
The stock price takes care of itself.
不是这样。
Not true.
纯属放屁，纯属放屁。
Bull fucking bull fucking shit.
你每小时都在看股价。
You look at your stock price every hour.
你自己心里清楚。
You know it.
每次发布消息，你都想知道大家的反应，而最好的衡量标准就是股市。
Every time you put out news, you wanna know how people are reacting, and the best gauge is the stock market.
当五六月感觉像炸弹落下时，我觉得他们连喘口气的余地都没有。
And when the bombs felt like they were dropping in May and June, I don't think they felt like they had an an inch to breathe.
我觉得现在不是这种情况，因为虽然这些股票的股价还没有回到52周高点，但也没有在低点，而且已经停止下跌了。
I don't think that's the case right now because while the share prices are not back at fifty two week highs for most of these names, they're not on the lows, and they've stopped falling.
管理层这么说显然是正确的。
It's the right thing for management to say, obviously.
他们还能说什么呢？
What else are they literally going to say?
但像Adobe和Duolingo这样的公司，每股收益创了历史新高，还在以15%的速度增长，不管具体是多少。
But you have companies like Adobe and Duolingo where the earnings per share is at an all time high, and it's growing 15%, whatever it is.
股价却跌了70%，因为市场——我知道，我们春天就说过这个——
The stock's down 70% because the market I know this we were saying this in spring.
市场现在不在乎盈利，因为他们知道四年后，这些盈利可能会低40%。
The market doesn't care about the earnings today because they know that in four years, this could be 40% lower.
市场可能判断错了，但我们觉得这件事还没完。
Now the market may have been wrong, but I don't we don't think that we've heard the last last of, last of this.
你知道还有什么变了吗？AI那帮人的说辞。
You know what else has changed The rhetoric out of the AI guys.
其实就两个人——没人听DeepMind那家伙的。
It's really only two guy it's it's nobody listens to the DeepMind guy.
他又不是CEO。
He's not a CEO.
所以真正有分量的声音只有达里奥和山姆。
So it's really only Dario and Sam whose voices matter.
六个月前，这些人逮着机会就胡说八道。
And six months ago, these guys were saying reckless shit every chance they got.
上个播客，达里奥就轻描淡写地说，到2030年，50%的白领工作会消失。
Pop on a podcast, Dario's like, oh, casually, 50% of all white collar jobs will be gone by 2030.
真的假的？
Really?
那你软件卖给谁去？
Who the fuck are you selling software to then?
这话你也敢对着麦克风说，麦克风还开着呢。
Like, that that's that's what you wanna say into a sir, the microphone is plugged in.
好吧。
Alright.
他现在不再那样了。
He's not doing that anymore.
而且，其实，我不怎么用推特，但据我所知，他的硅谷同行们逮着机会就把他骂得狗血淋头，就是因为那些言论。
And, actually, the I don't I'm not a Twitter guy, but from what I hear, his fellow Silicon Valleyites are ripping him to shreds every chance they get because of those types of pronouncements.
萨姆在发言上也变得更有分寸了。
Sam has gotten a little bit more disciplined on messaging as well.
萨姆的家被攻击过几次。
His Sam Sam's home was attacked a few times.
不。
No.
我觉得，我觉得，我觉得他不是……对。
I think I think I think he wasn't Yeah.
该闭嘴了。
Time to shut up.
该闭嘴了。
Time to shut up.
也许别在播客上公开琢磨街头无政府主义这种事，哥们儿。
Maybe don't, maybe don't don't be publicly noodling with the idea of, of anarchy in the streets on a on a podcast schmuck.
你想公开吗？
You wanna go public?
你想像埃隆那样搞个华尔街路演巡游，让人在摩根大通的大厅里放水滑梯吗？
You wanna do a a a Wall Street, roadshow tour like Elon got where they they bring water slides into the lobby at JPMorgan?
你想要那种待遇吗？
You want that treatment?
别再说那种话了。
Stop saying things like that.
那对你融资没好处。
Not help it's not gonna help you raise money.
结果新闻焦点不是OpenAI的产品有多棒，而是萨姆·奥特曼有多疯狂，或者达里奥对白领就业的威胁有多大。
And instead of the news cycle being about how great OpenAI's products are, it's how crazy is Sam Altman, or how much harm does Dario mean to white collar employment?
在IPO前几个月说这种话，完全不对路。
That is the wrong way to be speaking a few months before an IPO.
他们知道这一点。
They know that.
他们比我聪明。
They're smarter than I am.
所以他们不再那么做了。
So they've stopped doing that.
我觉得这也让SaaS末日论稍微缓和了一些。
I I think that's also bought a little bit of a a reprieve in the SaaSpocalypse also.
现在不是每时每刻都在头条上说他们都会被颠覆到归零。
It's just, like, not in the headlines every second how they're all gonna be disrupted to zero.
嗯，现在的市场环境和人文环境好多了，因为Salesforce雇了多少十万计的人？
Well, this is a much better market environment and humanity environment because how many hundreds of thousands of people does Salesforce employ?
是有一百万还是更多？
Is that a million or more?
有可能。
Could be.
对。
Yeah.
嗯，我觉得没有一百万，但确实很多。
It well, I don't think it's a million, but it's a lot.
好的。
Alright.
我喜欢这个说法。
I like this Many
很多人会说太多了。
many would say too many.
但更重要的是，我听了Kudrowski在Alex的节目上的访谈，就是Alex Kantowitz的《大科技播客》。
But the bigger picture and I I listened to Kudrowski on Alex's show, Alex Kantowitz, The Big Technology Podcast.
我其实周末的时候分享了那个。
I actually shared it, over the weekend.
我觉得那个节目特别好。
I thought it was so good.
库德罗夫斯基并不是反对人工智能。
Kudrowski is not, like, anti AI.
他只是说，这些不会成为特别好的生意。
He's just saying, like, these are not gonna be great businesses.
对。
Yeah.
具体来说，就是那些提供算力的公司。
Specifically, the the providers of compute.
然后对于大语言模型，他基本上是说，它们会意识到，如果还没意识到的话，它们别无选择，只能自己进入企业级SaaS领域。
And then the LLMs, he he's basically saying they will realize, if they haven't already, that they have no choice but to go into enterprise SaaS themselves.
它们会这么做，因为token的价值正在急剧贬值。
They will be creating because there is hyper deflation in the value of a token.
过去四年里，每年都在下降80%。
It's falling 80% a year every year for the last four years.
他还说
And he's he said
为了克服这个，你得
to overcome that, you have
把业务规模扩大一百万倍之类的。
to, like, million x the business or whatever.
你需要卖一些利润空间很大的东西。
You you need you need to sell something with high profit margins.
最好的办法就是把算力和数据产品化，做出企业愿意付费的产品。
And the thing to do is to productize the the compute and the data and create products that corporations will pay you for.
另外，他觉得那些在SaaS末日论中抛售股票的人，严重误解了SaaS最初存在的意义。
The other thing is he thinks that they have gravely the people selling stocks in the SaaS apocalypse have gravely misunderstood why SaaS is even a thing to begin with.
原因在于，尤其是大公司的高管们，他们希望事情出问题时，能有个对象可以骂或者起诉。
And the reason is people, especially executives at big corporations, they want somebody they can yell at or sue when things don't go right.
而Salesforce就是那个完美的对象，出了问题你可以骂它或者告它。
And Salesforce is the perfect entity that you can yell at or sue when something goes wrong.
如果你的员工都在用开源的东西，自己处理数据，出了问题，我能告谁呢？
If your employees are all doing open source shit and, working with the data themselves and something goes wrong, who can I sue?
我能冲谁吼？
Who can I yell at?
这个第三方必须存在，这就是企业级SaaS存在的真正原因。
That third party has to exist, And that is really why enterprise SaaS exists.
但你知道吗？
But you know what?
回到四五月的时候。
Rewind back to May and April.
我们当时就在说，你不能就这么把Salesforce拆掉。
We were saying these things at the time that you can't just rip out Salesforce.
不是那么回事。
It doesn't work like that.
但市场却在说，哦，对。
And yet the market is saying, oh, yeah.
跌了4%。
Down 4%.
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
继续这么说，跌了7%。
Keep saying that down 7%.
这真的很难。
It's really hard.
我没说人们会把它拆掉。
Didn't say that people would rip it out.
市场说人们会谈判，没关系。
The market said that people would negotiate Doesn't matter.
好吧。
Fine.
跟销售人员谈，好吧。
With the salespeople Fine.
而且确实如此。
And true.
结果就是每个用户的收入降低，利润空间也变小了。
Result in lower revenue per user and smaller margins.
而且这个过程要花十年才能显现出来。
And that takes a decade to play out.
每天市场都这样跌，要长期持有并且跟市场对着干，真的很难。
It's really hard to stay long and to fight the market when it's falling like that every single day.
真的很难。
Really hard.
我做不到。
I can't do it.
那不是我的做法。我们认识一些人，他们会趁低加仓。
That that's not how I I don't We have we know people that lean in.
比如，我们跟乔纳森·博亚德是朋友。
Like, we like, we're friends with Jonathan Boyard.
如果他喜欢一只股票，价格是80，而市场在按破产定价，跌到40，他不会跑。
If he likes to stock at 80 and the market is pricing in for bankruptcy and it's at 40, he's not running from it.
他也在买。
He's buying too.
还记得微软暴跌的时候吗？
Remember when Microsoft was crashing?
我们跟吉姆说，它崩了。
We're like, Jim, it's crashing.
他说，我喜欢这家公司。
He's like, I like the business.
我不太，你知道，我觉得市场搞错了。
I don't I don't really you know, I think the market's wrong.
所以有些人能比其他人做得更好。
So some people can do it better than others.
这游戏不好玩。
Hard game to play.
好吧。
Alright.
我们来聊聊正事吧。
Let's talk about the stuff.
最后一件事。
Last last thing.
Jackie Jim Rat说Salesforce有83000名员工。
Jackie Jim Rat is saying Salesforce is 83,000 employees.
你刚才说什么来着？
What what what did you say?
百万？
Million?
我说了一百万吗？
Did I say a million?
差不多。
Close.
不。
No.
我问他们是否还好。
I I asked if they okay.
抱歉。
Sorry.
我不知道，我不知道世界上每家公司的员工数量。
I don't know I don't know the employee count of every company in world.
我在逗你呢。
I'm teasing you.
亚马逊和沃尔玛各有大约一百万名员工。
Amazon is Amazon and Walmart are, a million each.
好的。
Okay.
所以规模要小得多。
So the scale is much lower.
好吧。
Alright.
我们来聊聊股市吧，目前表现还不错。
Let's talk about the stock market, which is, doing okay.
比不错还要好。
Better than okay.
从纽约证券交易所到标普500、400和600，所有涨跌线都创了新高。
We've got the we've got every advanced decline line from the New York Stock Exchange to the S and P 500, 400, and 600 making new highs.
这当然要归功于All Star Chart的那些优秀人士。
This is, of course, the great folks at All Star Chart starting this.
Andy Thrasher展示的方式略有不同，他关注的是一个月内创新低的数量，分别看大盘、中盘、小盘，然后综合来看。
Andy Thrasher shows it a little bit differently, looking at the number of one month lows with large, mid, and small, and then all.
当然，在牛市中你很少看到创新低的情况。
And, of course, you don't see many new lows in a bull market.
应该说几乎没有，或者非常少。
There are none or very few, I should say.
而且，Yuri有一张很棒的图表。
And, Yuri and has a great chart.
富达的尤里和蒂默展示的图表中，黑色线是市值加权指数，蓝色线是等权重指数，下面粉色部分显示的是股价高于200日移动平均线的股票占比。
Yuri and Timmer over at Fidelity showing the cap weighted index in black with the blue equal weight and underneath in the pink, he's showing the percentage of members above the two hundred day moving average.
这个比例已经达到了相当长一段时间以来的最高水平。
And it is the highest level that it's been in quite a long time.
所以现在市场创下历史新高，同时有75%的股票位于200日移动平均线之上。
So you're having the market hit an all time high with 75% of stocks above their two hundred day moving average.
这差不多是最好的情况了。
This is about as good as it gets.
那我们来看看尤里的图表吧。
And, let's do the urine chart.
你之前提到，这虽然不是……不是……但它是一个很好的佐证。
When you were at I mean, it's not a it's not a it's a nice corroborating piece of evidence.
它不具备预测性。
It's not predictive.
而且你可以看到，当这个比例达到七十多的时候，市场可能会出现回调。
And as you can see, when you get into the seventies, you you can get a market pullback.
这并不意味着一定会，也不意味着一定不会。
It doesn't mean you will, and it doesn't mean you won't.
一个非常明显的例子就是，看看今年年初的那段时间。
And a really obvious example of that is, look at this period of time coming into the start of this year.
你达到了71%，然后转眼间，伊朗战争就把你脚下的地毯抽走了。
You hit you hit 71, and then before you know it, they pull the rug out from under you with the Iran war.
对。
Mhmm.
然后你就跌到了负44%。
And you're at negative 44.
相关是什么意思？
What does correlated mean?
比如说，我理解收窄。
Say I understand narrowing.
我理解拓宽。
I understand broadening.
什么是
What is
我觉得是那种图表，就是
it I think it's what chart where
上面写着“相关性”。
it says correlated.
嗯，就是所有股票都在同涨同跌，这正好引出约翰·克林斯基的下一张图表。
Well, it's when all stocks are moving together, which is a great segue into the next chart from John Krinsky.
看看这个。
Check this out.
克林斯基展示了那些下跌成交量占比超过80%的交易天数，也就是超过80%的成交量是下跌的，而目前我们还没有遇到过这样的日子。
Krinsky shows the trading days where more than 80% of the downside volume, more than 80% of the volume is to the downside, and we haven't had any.
乔纳森说这很反常，甚至还没有出现过一天下跌成交量达到80%的情况。
Jonathan says it is an anomaly and that there has yet to be even 180% downside volume day.
哇。
Wow.
平均每年有21天是这样的，而且从来没有哪一年少于五天。
The average year sees 21 such days, and we have never had a year with less than five.
这太疯狂了。
This is so insane.
请把图表关掉。
Chart off, please.
因为之所以会发生这种情况，是因为即使在战争期间，也有能源股。
Because even the reason why this is happening is because even during the war, you had the energy stocks.
我觉得这就是为什么能源股会大幅飙升。
I think this is why you had the energy stocks absolutely ripping.
有很多图表让这一年变得很奇怪，比如亚当·帕克有一个图表显示负贝塔。
There's been a lot of charts that have that have, like, made the year funky where you have, like, Adam Parker has a chart showing negative beta.
Evercore也复制了它。
Evercore copied it.
我觉得亚当是第一个。
I think Adam was first.
之所以有这么多负贝塔股票，也就是那些大盘跌它涨、大盘涨它跌的股票，主要是因为能源股。
And the reason why there were so many negative beta stocks, meaning stocks that go up when the market goes down or go down when the market is up, it was primarily energy.
这让今年变得特别奇怪，更别提还有那种集中度的问题，AI涨软件就跌，软件涨AI就跌。
And that is just making this calendar year a very odd one to say nothing of the concentration and AI up software down software up AI down.
今年确实是个不寻常的年份。
It's just been an unusual year for sure.
对。
Yeah.
这会是让人难忘的一年。
This will be a memorable one.
我觉得我们肯定会。
I think we'll Definitely.
以后回头看这一年，会有好多例子，要么是将来有参考价值的，要么就是些冷门的事，我们会说，嘿。
Look back at this and have so many, like, examples of things that will be relevant in the future or, like, obscure things where we're like, hey.
还记得这事以前真发生过吗？
Remember that actually happened before?
很多年份都会互相渗透。
A lot of years bleed into the other.
很多年份都会互相渗透。
A lot of years bleed into the other.
但今年不是这样的年份。
This is not one of those years.
我们迎来了SpaceX的IPO。
We got the SpaceX IPO.
就是有很多稀奇古怪的事情发生。
Like, there's just a lot of funky shit happening.
最后，还是来自Crinsky的消息。
Lastly, also from Crinsky.
金融股创下了史上最长的连续周上涨纪录。
Financial stocks are on their longest weekly winning streak ever.
你是在开玩笑吗？
Are you kidding me?
金融股已经连续上涨十一周了。
Eleven straight up weeks for financial stocks.
那是什么？
What is that?
是收益率曲线吗？
The yield curve?
他说的我知道盈利很好，我也知道股市
What is he I know the earnings are great, and I know the stock market
一切都在正常运转。
is Everything's working.
对，是的。
Is yeah.
一切都在正常运转。
Everything's working.
钱啊。
Money.
能赚钱。
Makes money.
交易。
Trading.
对。
Yeah.
全是首次公开募股。
It's all IPOs.
一切都在发生。
It's all it's all happening.
说到这个，一切都在发生，老兄。
Speak of it's all happening, dude.
这个法案信函内容真不少。
This this act act letter is is a lot.
比如，这个潘兴广场的家伙身上发生了很多事情。
Like, there is there is a lot going on with this Pershing Square guy.
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