为什么全球每位交易员都在关注10年期国债——与Nick Colas对谈

本播客由Fm Investments和SGVA赞助，也就是Fm Accumulator超短期国债ETF。

This podcast is sponsored by Fm Investments and SGVA, the Fm Accumulator Ultrashort Treasury ETF.

首先恭喜Alex和Fm团队与T. Rowe Price达成合作。

A quick congratulations to Alex and the Fm team on joining forces with T.

Rowe Price。

Rowe Price.

我们很期待看到F.M.接下来这一章会带来什么。

We're excited to see what this next chapter brings for F.

M。

M.

以及它在固定收益投资上的创新方法。

And its innovative approach to fixed income investing.

这种创新在你看超短期国债ETF通常的结构时尤其重要。

That innovation is particularly relevant when you look at how ultrashort Treasury ETFs are typically structured.

大多数每月派发现金，但投资者并不需要也不想要这些现金。

Most payout monthly cash distributions that investors don't need, don't want.

这些分红会作为应税收入，税后还得再投资。

Those distributions come as taxable income that must be reinvested after taxes.

这里有一只ETF可以解决这个问题。

Here's an ETF to solve that problem.

Fm Accumulator Ultrashort Treasury ETF，代码SGVA。

The Fm Accumulator Ultrashort Treasury ETF, ticker SGVA.

SGVA的设计就是为了避免不必要的应税分红，并在ETF内部利用复利的力量。

SGVA is structured to avoid unwanted taxable distributions and harness the power of compounding inside the ETF.

不是每月分红，而是让你继续投资于超短期国债，你可以根据自己的现金需求选择赎回时机。

Instead of monthly distributions, you stay invested in ultrashort treasuries, and you choose when to redeem based on your personal cash needs.

SGVA，旨在增长，而非分红。

SGVA, built to grow, not distribute.

了解更多，请访问fminvest.com/sgva。

To learn more, visit fminvest.com/sgva.

哎呀，哎呀，哎呀。

Well, well, well.

我们又见面了。

Here we are again.

尼克，你最近怎么样？

How are we doing, Nick?

挺好的。

Very good.

你呢？

How are you?

不错。

Good.

我先简单介绍一下节目，然后我们直接进入正题。

Let me introduce the show real quick, and we'll get we'll get down to business.

各位观众，欢迎收看全新一期的《我们学到了什么》。

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to an all new edition of What Did We Learn.

今天这期节目，我们要聊的，我觉得是过去一周对投资者、资产配置者、投资组合经理和对冲基金来说最重要的话题。

On today's show, we're doing, I think, the most important topic of the past week for investors, allocators, portfolio managers, hedge funds.

现在大家都在关注这个，因为财报季已经差不多结束了，我们很幸运。

This is the thing that everyone's looking at now that we are most of the way through earning season, and we're very fortunate.

今天我把我的朋友尼克·科拉斯请来了。

I have my friend Nick Colas here.

尼克和他的联合创始人杰西卡·拉贝一起，杰西卡今天没来参加这期节目，她身体不太舒服。

Nick, along with his cofounder Jessica Rabe, who is, who is on the bench today for for today's episode, not feeling great.

但尼克来了。

But Nick is here.

尼克是DataTrek Research的联合创始人，也是DataTrek《晨间简报》通讯的作者，这份通讯每天发送给1500多家机构和零售客户。

Nick is the cofounder of DataTrek Research and the author of DataTrek's Morning Briefing Newsletter, which goes out daily to 1,500 plus institutional and retail clients.

尼克和杰西卡还有一个很棒的YouTube频道。

Nick and Jessica also have their own awesome YouTube channel.

你可以在下面的描述里找到链接。

You could find a link to it in the description below.

欢迎回来，尼克。

Welcome back, Nick.

见到你真是太高兴了。

It's so great to see you.

见到你也很高兴。

Great to see you.

好的。

Alright.

你夏天过得怎么样？

You having a good summer?

非常好。

Very good.

你呢？

How about you?

我今年夏天也过得特别好。

I this is this is a really good one for me too.

我每年都这么说。

So I I I say this every year.

现在夏天快结束了，但你几乎会对自己说，谢天谢地，我玩得太开心了。

This is the part of the summer where it's almost over, but you almost say to yourself, thank God, I'm having too much fun.

我其实需要回去工作了。

I actually need to get back to work.

所以对我来说，通常就是那一周。

So this is like that that week for me usually.

但不管怎样，我们还是在这里。

But but we're here regardless.

所以我想做这个。

So I want to do this.

我想在节目开头说，通常我们谈论的是股市。

I want to open this segment by just saying, typically, we talk about the stock market.

通常，债市发生的事情对股市或股市情绪影响不大，因为人们明白这是两个不同的市场。

Typically, what happens in the bond market doesn't really have much of an impact on the stock market or the sentiment in the stock market, because people just understand it's two different markets.

有时它们会因为同样的原因而波动。

Sometimes they fluctuate for the same reason.

有时候它们是各自独立运行的。

Sometimes they are doing their own thing independent of each other.

不过现在，国债市场又回来了。

However, right now, the Treasury bond market has come back.

它成了市场讨论的焦点，因为那里出现了一些波动。

It's the front burner of the market conversation because we're seeing some volatility there.

我们看到很多关于波动原因的说法在流传。

We're seeing a lot of narratives being kicked around about what's causing it.

我觉得这是我们今天开始讨论的好方式。

And I think it's a great way for us to open up the conversation today.

所以，尼克，你提到长期国债收益率，特别是它在走高。

So, Nick, you're talking about long term treasury yields specifically moving higher.

那就告诉我们我们需要知道的信息吧。

So let us know what we need to know.

好的。

Sure.

我现在主要关注的是三十年期的美国国债，因为它在媒体上曝光度很高。

I'm focusing right now on the thirty year Treasury because that's gotten a lot of the press.

它的收益率已经突破了十五年甚至二十年来的高点。

It has broken out to plus fifteen, maybe twenty year highs in terms of yield.

而且大家对造成这种情况的原因有很多困惑。

And there's a lot of confusion of what's causing that.

所以我整理了一张图表，我们可以开始讨论一下。

So I pulled together a chart that we can start talking about.

这张图把三十年期的国债收益率分解成通胀预期和剩余部分，也就是实际利率。

And this shows you thirty year Treasury yields decomposed into inflation expectations and then the residual, which is called real interest rates.

你在屏幕上看到的这些名义利率，比如5.2%、5.3%，可以分解成投资者对未来三十年每年预期的通胀率。

The nominal rates that you see on the screen, the 5.2, 5.3% can be broken down into how much inflation investors expect over the next thirty years per year.

剩下的部分就是实际收益率。

And then whatever's left over is called the real yield.

红线代表通胀预期，在过去十五六年里基本持平。

The red line, which is inflation expectations, has been dead flat pretty much for the last fifteen, sixteen years.

这张图表可以追溯到2010年，数值在1.52%左右。

This chart goes back to 2010 and it goes between, you call it 1.52%.

大概在1%到2.5%之间。

It is a a or two and a half percent.

非常稳定。

It is very stable.

市场总是知道通胀要来，而且非常稳定。

The market always knows inflation is coming and it's very stable.

这些预期非常稳定。

Those expectations are very stable.

真正大幅波动的是实际利率。

What moves around a ton, meaning a ton, is real rates.

也就是扣除通胀预期后剩下的部分，而它们已经突破了。

What you have left over after inflation expectations, and they're the ones that have broken out.

所以现在不是2%或2.5%，在当前环境下已经逼近3%了。

So instead of being, call it 2%, two and a half percent, they're now pushing up on 3% in the current environment.

这就是利率走高的原因。

And that's the reason for rates being higher.

这非常重要，我们再把图表调出来看一眼。

And it's super important if we just throw the throw the chart back up for one more second.

如果你投资了TLT，也就是iShares那只非常受欢迎的长期国债ETF，在2010年代，你每年能获得将近8%的正回报。

If you were an investor in TLT, which is a very popular long dated Treasury bond ETF out of iShares, You compounded at almost 8% a year positive through the twenty tens.

在2020年代，它本来是个非常赚钱的投资，因为实际利率从负值飙升至正值。

It was a very good money making investment in the twenty twenties because real rates have exploded from being negative to being very positive.

但到目前为止，这十年的复合年增长率，也就是CAGR，是负4.4%。

Your CAGR, your compounded annual growth rate over this decade so far has been negative 4.4%.

所以，从做多长端利率这个曾经非常赚钱的交易，变成了对投资组合回报极具破坏性的东西。

So this went from being a massive money making trade, being long the long end of the curve to being just very destructive to portfolio returns.

而原因就是

And the reason for that

完全是因为

is entirely

让我确保大家都明白，再快速深入讲一下这个。

the way Let me let me just make sure everyone understands and just double click on that real quick.

长期国债组合每年7.8%的复合增长率，从信用角度看，这些国债实际上是零风险的。

A CAGR of 7.8% a year on a portfolio of long term treasuries, which effectively from a credit perspective are risk free.

你承担的风险是久期风险，因为利率会波动。

The risk that you're taking is duration risk because the interest rates fluctuate.

但从2010年到2019年，每年能赚8%，这让很多资产配置者把TLT或类似的产品作为他们资产配置中永久的一部分。

But like to be able to earn 8% a year from 2010 through 2019 led to a lot of allocators, including TLT or something like it as as sort of a permanent part of their asset allocation.

这部分配置，在过去的六年里，复合增长率是负4.4%，而且这还是避险资产。

That piece of the puzzle, that piece of the allocation in the last six years has been compounding at negative 4.4%, and that's for the risk off asset.

很多人认为TLT应该总是被纳入配置，因为当市场大跌或经济陷入大麻烦时，它应该能作为对冲工具，表现很好。

A lot of people thought TLT should always be included in allocations because when the market's getting killed or the economy's in big trouble, that should work really well to the upside as a hedge.

对。

Yep.

你的对冲，对整个投资组合的对冲，在市场好的时候应该亏钱，而且它确实做到了。

Your hedge your hedge for an overall portfolio should lose money when times are good, and it and it's worked.

但我觉得现在很多人都在重新审视这个问题，觉得这也许不是我未来想要的那种对冲方式。

But I think a lot of people are now looking at that and saying, maybe that's not the exact hedge that I want going forward.

是的，完全正确。

Yes, precisely so.

顺便说一下，这些回报都是把票息再投资后的结果。

And by the way, those returns are with coupons reinvested.

所以这就是你的总回报。

So that's your total return.

就是让资产放在那里，不断再投资。

That's just sitting there with the asset reinvesting.

所以这段时间确实很难熬。

So it's been tough.

而且你看，这个策略在2020年疫情爆发、一切都在崩溃的时候，也还是有效的。

And look, that that trade even worked in 2020 when everything was falling apart in the pandemic.

TLT当时在上涨。

TLT was rallying.

它曾经是很多投资组合的锚。

It was the anchor for a lot of portfolios.

但自那以后就一直很糟糕。

It just has been destructive since.

对。

Yeah.

好，继续说。

Okay, go on.

好，那这张图就讲完了。

Okay, so that takes care of the picture.

现在我们来谈谈下一张幻灯片的内容。

Now let's talk about, you know, what's going on with the next the next slide.

这里我们分析一下实际利率高企并攀升的真正原因。

And here we kind of break down what is the actual reason for real rates being high and climbing.

我认为有四个重要原因。

And there is, I think, four that are important.

首先，在2010年代初期到2020年代，美联储故意通过量化宽松和购买债券来压低实际利率，人为地让利率变得非常低。

First of all, they were very artificially depressed by the Fed purposely so in the early twenty tens and 2010 is twenty twenties because of quantitative easing bond buying by the Fed to bring real rates down.

美联储这么做了，效果非常好。

The Fed did that and it worked fantastically well.

他们把实际利率压到了非常负的水平，这刺激了大量投资。

They got real rates super negative that encouraged a lot of investment.

所以任务完成了。

So mission accomplished.

这就是在逆转。

This is the unwind.

这就是在逆转。

This is the unwind.

所以现在我们正在逆转，现在美联储的资产负债表非常稳定，没有购买债券。

So now we do the unwind and now we have a very stable Fed balance sheet with no bond buying.

第二点，我觉得我们今天对话中会多次提到的一个主题是，尽管经历了一系列冲击，但自2020年以来没有出现过经济衰退。

The second, and I think a theme that we're going to touch on a couple of times in this conversation today, is there's been no recessions since 2020 despite a whole range of shocks.

2022年是激进加息。

2022 is aggressive rate hikes.

2025年是美国贸易政策冲击。

2025 is US trade policy shock.

22年和25年发生了两次不同的石油冲击。

Two different oil shocks in '22 and '25.

不可避免的结论是，中性利率，也就是美联储在整个周期中维持的利率水平，肯定比历史上要高，因为我们经受住了这么多冲击，经济却没有受到明显影响。

And the inevitable conclusion has to be that the neutral rate of interest, the rate at which the Fed keeps rates over a cycle, must be higher than historically has been the case because we've stood up to a bunch of shocks with no noticeable impact on the economy.

第三点是联邦预算赤字仍然很高，信用质量开始受到质疑。

The third is federal budget deficits remain high and credit quality is becoming into question.

我觉得这个话题大家都很清楚。

I think it's a pretty well understood topic.

最后，一个新的话题是，现在有很多与人工智能相关的长期企业借贷，这正在从国债中抽走需求，因为突然间，以前公司发行长期债务比较平稳，现在市场上有许多新玩家在发行大量长期债务，直接与国债竞争。

And then finally, a new topic is there's a lot of AI related long term corporate borrowing going on and that's pulling demand away from treasuries because all of a sudden where companies were kind of flat issuing long term debt, now you have a lot of new players in the market issuing a lot of long term debt that is competing directly with the Treasury bonds.

所以，这些因素的结合就是为什么我们看到实际利率持续攀升。

So the culmination, the combination of those factors is why we're seeing real rates keep climbing.

我和客户们一直在讨论的结论是，你得把投资组合的久期保持在比较短的水平，比如五年以内，直到美国经济走弱。

And the conclusion that I've been talking about with my clients is you got to keep on portfolio durations pretty short, like under five years until The U.

美国

S.

经济走弱，因为那样会开始削弱“中性利率必须更高”这个观点，从而应该能让长期端的实际利率稳定下来。

Economy weakens, because that'll begin to take away this topic of neutral rates have to be higher and that should stabilize real rates at the long end of the curve.

所以，好的，那么对于用固定收益构建投资组合的财务顾问来说，答案就是你可以做阶梯式配置，但你不希望把阶梯排到三十年那么长。

So, okay, so financial advisors building portfolios with fixed income, the answer to those people would be you can ladder, but you don't want to be laddered out to thirty years.

这更像是梯凳，而不是梯子。

It's more of a it's it's more a step stool than a ladder.

对，就是梯凳。

It's it's a step stool.

延长久期的时机是当经济数据开始走弱，以及这些冲击之一演变成事件的风险出现的时候。

The time to get longer on duration is when the economic data is weakening and the risk of one of these shocks turning into an event.

那时候你可能才需要更长的久期作为投资组合的对冲。

That's where you might want that longer term duration as your portfolio hedge.

但是，你知道，我们现在还没有任何迹象表明这一点。

But but, you know, we don't have any signs of that right now.

并不是说它不可能开始。

It's not that it can't start.

只是没有理由认为它正在开始。

It just there's no reason to think that it is starting.

对。

No.

而且我们实际上有一个反例，自2020年以来经历了所有这些冲击，却没有出现衰退，这在很多方面都令人震惊。

And we we actually have a counterexample of all these shocks since 2020 and no recession, which in many ways is just astounding.

这解释了很多资本市场的事情，不仅仅是债券市场的情况，而且在债券市场中表现得非常明显。

It explains a lot of things in capital markets, not just what's going on in bonds, but it really shows up in bonds in a very pronounced fashion.

没错。

Right.

所以总结一下，经济的韧性意味着中性利率应该更高。

So to sum up, the resilience of the economy means the neutral rate should be higher.

所以这是它上升的一个原因。

So that's one reason for it climbing.

然后你又把幻灯片放回去了。

And then you've got then you've put the put the slide right back up.

然后还有联邦预算赤字，我觉得今年到目前为止，赤字已经超过了2025年全年的水平。

And then you've got the federal budget deficits, I think already year to date, the deficit is already larger than it was for all of 2025.

所以这正朝着错误的方向发展。

So that's heading in the wrong direction.

这让人们对美国债券的安全感有所下降。

And that pulls people out of feeling very safe in US bonds.

他们仍然觉得安全，但可能没那么安全了。

They still feel safe, but maybe a little less safe.

人为压低的部分很明显。

The artificially depressed part is obvious.

不过我想深入谈谈第四点。

I wanna double click though on this fourth point.

与人工智能相关的长期企业借贷正在把需求拉走。

AI related long term corporate borrowing pulling demand away.

图表，各位。

Chart off, guys.

所以我认为今年公司债券发行量是1.75万亿美元。

So I think the number is 1,750,000,000,000 in corporate bond issuance this year.

我记得上周我们做过一期关于这个的节目。

And I think we we did a show about this last week.

我觉得这比2025年同期高出20%到30%。

I think that's running 20 or 30% ahead of where we were at this time in 2025.

而且我们都看到了那些头条新闻。

And we all have seen the headlines.

我们看到了甲骨文、Meta、亚马逊和Alphabet。

We've seen Oracle and Meta and Amazon and Alphabet.

它们都在市场上筹集资金。

They're all out in the market raising money.

有时候他们会做二次股票发行，但很多时候也会发行债券，这也很正常。

Sometimes they're doing secondary stock offerings, but oftentimes they're doing bond offerings as well they should.

除了甲骨文，这些公司的信用评级都非常高。

With the exception of Oracle, these are very high grade credits.

他们能以非常低的利率借到钱。

They're able to borrow at very low dollar amounts.

这比通过股权融资稀释股权要划算得多。

It's less dilutive than doing this through equity.

说到底，投资大众对这些交易非常感兴趣。

And the the bottom line is the the investing public is hungry for these deals.

和国债竞争这部分，我觉得很多人不太容易理解。

The competition with treasuries part, I think, is the leap that a lot of people don't make very easily.

那你能解释一下为什么Alphabet发行债券会影响长期国债的价格吗？

So could you explain why Alphabet selling bonds would impact the price of a long term Treasury?

当然可以。

Sure.

作为债券投资者，你现在必须考虑风险。

As a bond investor, you got to think about risk right now.

从学术角度来看，国债一直被视为无风险利率，现在依然如此。

Treasuries have been notionally the risk free rate and still are from an academic standpoint.

而且从偿还的角度来说，它们确实是稳的。

And certainly they are money good as far as getting repaid.

但我会这么说。

But I would put it this way.

如果我说我要卖给你一个谷歌十年期债券，或者一个美国

If I told you I was going to sell you either a Google ten year bond or a U.

十年期国债，你觉得哪个会表现更好，或者哪个在理论上更安全？

S.

因为一方面，你确实有美国

Ten year Treasury, which do you think will trade better or which do you think is more notionally secure?

国债，但另一方面，谷歌的信用评级也很高。

Because on the one hand you have, yes, the U.

美国。

S.

政府有征税的能力。

Government ability to tax.

没错。

Great.

另一方面，谷歌的现金流非常强劲。

On the other hand, you have Google's cash flows, which are profound.

而且从某些角度看，我觉得谷歌至少和美国政府一样安全，因为它是一家全球性企业，管理得非常好。

And in some ways, Google, I think I I could argue, is at least as safe as the US government because it's a global business and very well managed.

所以作为债券投资者，你会想，风险到底是什么？

So as a bond investor, you're thinking, okay, what is risk?

我们刚刚看到TLT在过去六年里年化收益为负4%。

We've just seen TLT compounded negative 4% over the last six years.

这才是真正的风险。

That's real risk.

所以我觉得债券投资者看这个问题比股票投资者更全面，他们可能比股票投资者想得更周全，但他们只是在寻找风险相对较小、收益合适的回报。

So I think bond investors look at this more holistically than perhaps an equity investor think this thinks they probably should, but they're just looking for the right amount of yield with relatively little risk.

记住，债券投资者是厌恶风险的。

Remember, bond investors are risk averse.

他们最好的结果就是拿回承诺给他们的东西，也就是利息和本金。

The best they can do is get what they're promised back again, coupons and principal.

他们只是想拿到利息，然后拿回本金。

They're just looking to get their coupons and get their principal back.

他们只想要这些。

That's all they want.

而谷歌做到这一点和美国政府一样靠谱。

And Google is just as likely to do that as the US government.

对。

Right.

他们并不是在赌谷歌会跑赢纳斯达克，或者谷歌股价会涨。

They're not making a bet that Google is going to outperform the Nasdaq or that Google stock will be higher.

赌的是谷歌会把本金还给我，并且支付利息。

The bet is Google will give me back my principal and they're going to pay the interest rate.

而且在这个过程中不会出现疯狂的波动。

And there won't be insane volatility along the way toward that happening.

收益率会比同期限的国债要高，因为谷歌不是主权国家，没有海军陆战队、海岸警卫队和海军，但它有其他特质，在像现在这样的时期，这些特质可能和买十年期国债带来的安全感一样有吸引力，甚至更有吸引力。

The yield is gonna be higher than what a comparable maturity treasury might yield and that's because Google is not sovereign, doesn't have the marines and the coast guard and a navy, but it's got other attributes that maybe in times like these are as or even more attractive than the safety that you feel buying a ten year Treasury.

完全正确。

Exactly.

我们会在最后一部分讲到这个，但我一直在跟客户强调，美元能成为储备货币，是因为美国的创新。

And we'll get to this in the last section, but I've been making the argument to clients that the reason the US dollar is a reserve currency is because of the innovation in The U.

美国长期的创新。

S, the long term innovation in The U.

美国。

S.

这才是储备货币的根本，不仅仅是军队、海军和税收，而是社会如何运用它的资本。

That is what makes a reserve currency, not just the army and the navy and the taxation, but what a society does with its capital.

而谷歌就是善用资本的一个典范。

And Google is an exemplar of doing something clever with your capital.

对。

Right.

好的。

Okay.

所以，来自Alphabet、亚马逊这些巨头在市场上发行债券的竞争。

So competition from from Alphabet and Amazon and these other giants selling bonds in the market.

这样一来，每一美元投入高等级公司债券，就少了一美元投入美国国债，这意味着买方需求减少，收益率就会上升。

So every dollar that goes into a high grade corporate bond is a dollar that does not go into a US Treasury, which is less demand on the buy side, which means higher yields.

是不是这样？

Is that what

是的。

Yes.

你基本上说得对。

You're Essentially, yes.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

这是每个投资经理都得做的权衡。

It's it's a trade off every PM has to make.

我该买国债吗？

Do I buy treasuries?

如果你是纯国债买家，那当然，你只买国债。

Now, if you're a pure Treasury buyer, yes, of course, you're just buying treasuries.

但大多数固定收益投资者，大多数注册投资顾问，都在看整个固定收益领域，然后问自己：哪里最划算？

But most fixed income, most RIAs are looking at the whole spectrum of of fixed income and saying, where's my best bet?

好的。

Okay.

那么现在问题来了，股票投资者会问：这对我的股票意味着什么？

So now the question so so where the equity market investor then goes to is, well, what does this mean for my stocks?

或者这对市场，或者对资金流入股票还是债券的潜力意味着什么？

Or what does this mean for the the the market or the potential for new investment coming into stocks versus bonds?

在什么收益率水平下，高收益国债会开始与货币市场基金争夺资金？

At what treasuries, at what point do higher yielding treasuries represent new competition for, for example, dollars coming out of a money market fund?

对。

Yeah.

我的想法是，关键在于利率达到什么水平会开始威胁经济。

I mean, the way I think about it is more around the concept of at what level do rates begin to threaten the economy?

因为作为股票投资者，你担心的是盈利。

Because that's as an equity investor, you're worried about earnings.

你担心盈利的波动性，盈利的强度。

You're worried about the volatility of earnings, the strength of earnings.

所以问题就是，利率会达到什么水平？

And so the question is, at what level do we get rates?

在这个十年的大部分时间里，十年期国债收益率一直是5%。

And it was for the most of this this decade, it's been 5% on tens.

如果十年期国债收益率达到5%，经济就有放缓的风险，因为借贷成本更高，经济增长放缓，盈利就会变得脆弱。

If you get to 5% on tens, there's the threat the economy slows down because borrowing costs are higher, economic growth slows, earnings become touchy.

我们现在还没到那个水平。

We're not there yet on tens.

今天收益率在4.70到4.72之间，所以我们还没完全到那个点。

We're at four seventy, four seventy two today, and so we're not quite there.

但我觉得，如果你想找一个触发点，就看十年期国债，看5%这个水平。

But I think this is if you want sort of a trigger point, look at tens, look at 5%.

如果十年期国债收益率到了5%，那么至少在2020年代，股市就会开始真正动荡，这就是我在关注的水平。

If you get there on tens, then at least over the twenty twenties, the the equity markets begun to really jitter, and that's the level I'm looking for.

我们在电视上常说的一句话，大家似乎都很喜欢并鼓掌，就是只要节奏，换句话说，不是关于利率的绝对水平。

One of the things we're saying on TV, which everybody seems to like and clap at is as long as the pace of like, as long as the it's it's like a in other words, not about the absolute level of the rate.

而是利率到达那个水平的速度波动性，这才是更有潜在破坏性的。

It's the volatility of how quickly the rates get to that level that's more potentially damaging.

所以我想你大部分时间都会同意，这个夏天利率一直在上升。

And so I I think you would agree, for the most part, this summer, rates have been rising.

现在利率在曲线的中段也在上升，不只是长期端，但整个过程是有序的。

Now they're rising in the belly of the curve, not just the long end, but it's been orderly.

所以电视上的人一直在说，是的，但这是有序的。

And so people on TV keep saying, yes, but it's orderly.

是的，利率更高了，但上升的路径并不令人震惊，或者说利率上升的速度得到了控制。

Yes, the rates are higher, but the path to higher hasn't been shocking or the velocity of the rates rising has been in check.

比如，这些都是你听到人们说的话，大家都喜欢听这些，因为让人安心。

Like, these are the things that you're hearing people say, and everybody likes hearing those things because it's reassuring.

你怎么看这个观点，就是不仅仅看利率的绝对水平，还要看达到那个水平的过程是什么样的？

What do you what do you think about that concept that it's not just the absolute level of rates, but what does the path look like for us to get there?

这个观点有道理，因为如果利率变动缓慢，作为股票投资者，你有时间去评估这些利率变化如何影响你投资公司的盈利。

It's a fair point, and it's fair because if you move slowly, then you have time as an equity investor to judge how those changes in rates are affecting earnings at your companies.

如果变动很快，你就没有那个机会了。

If it happens quickly, you don't have that opportunity.

那会是一个巨大的冲击，利率一下子到5%，我该怎么办？我的公司会怎么样？

It's just a big shock and rates go to five and what do I do and what's going to happen to my companies?

当事情进展缓慢时，市场有时间去判断、评估，看看哪些会受影响，哪些不会。

When things go slowly, the market has time to judge and assess and look at what's going to get hurt, look at what's not going to get hurt.

不过确实，变化的速度很重要。

But yeah, the rate of change does matter.

到目前为止，是的，过程还算有序。

And so far, yes, it has been orderly.

话虽如此，当十年期收益率达到5.23%的时候，市场还是有点波动，我记得是这样。

That being said, it was not disorderly when it got to when the tens got to 5 23, I think it was, and the market still kind of twitched at that point.

所以我觉得这确实是个速度问题，但我也认为存在一个水平，股市会开始觉得，我不太愿意为标普500支付20倍的市盈率。

So I think it is a matter of speed, but I also think that there is a level where equities say, I'm not so comfortable paying 20 x for the S and P 500.

这是2022年的一张免罪卡。

One of the one of the get out of jail free cards from 2022.

所以在21年，他们开始了加息周期，这比我们这一代人经历过的任何情况都要激进得多。

So in '21, they start the rate hiking campaign, and it's way more aggressive than anything our generation has experienced.

你得经历过七八十年代才能看到类似的情况。

You had to have been around in the seventies and eighties to have seen anything like it.

所以，像我们21年和22年经历的那种激进的加息周期，已经很久没出现过了。

So that's a really long time without as aggressive a rate hike cycle as what we experienced in '21 and '22.

但股市的一张免死金牌是，碰巧指数里最大的那些公司，它们对利率风险最不敏感，因为它们不是大借款人，而我们的盈利又恰恰依赖这些公司。

But one of the get out of jail free cards for the stock market was that it just so happened the largest companies in the indices that had the least amount of interest rate risk because they weren't big borrowers were the companies that we were relying on the earnings coming from.

所以它们看到自己的股价跌了百分之三十、四十、五十，就下定决心在支出上收敛起来。

And so what they did was they looked at their share price is down thirty, forty, 50%, and they committed to getting some religion on spending.

Meta就是典型的例子。

Meta is like the poster child for this.

它们在2020年和2021年的泡沫中过度扩张，投了很多没有回报的项目。

They got over their skis in the bubble in 2020 and 2021, funding a lot of projects with no ROI.

它们把这些都砍掉了，股价也回升了，但我们其实从来没有真正受到5%利率或加息速度的威胁，因为最大的那些公司不是大债券发行者，没有那种再融资风险。

They cut all that out, the stock prices recovered, but we were never really in danger from 5% interest rates or from the velocity of that rate rise because the largest companies weren't big bond issuers, didn't have that roll risk.

实际上，情况正好相反。

In fact, it was the opposite.

它们在2020年和2021年以0%的利率再融资了大量债务，以至于我们根本没想过财富500强公司的负债问题。

They refinanced so much of their debt at 0% in 2020 and 2021 that we weren't even thinking about the indebtedness of the Fortune 500 companies.

我觉得现在情况变了，我们不能再说这种话了。

I think what's changed is we can't say that anymore.

这些公司已经变了，从回购股票的公司变成了在二级市场卖股票、发债的公司，其中一些确实有再融资风险。

These companies have become They've gone from being buyback companies to being companies that sell stock on the secondary market and issue debt, and some of them do have role risk.

而且我觉得甲骨文成为表现最差的大型科技股，同时也是唯一一家债务评级几乎被降到垃圾级的大型科技股，这绝不是巧合。

And I don't think it's an accident that Oracle is the worst performing mega cap stock and is also the lone mega cap stock with a debt rating that's almost been cut to junk.

所以，跟我们说说现在和2022年的区别吧，也许我们不应该对这种情况太乐观。

So talk a little bit about the difference between now and 2022 and maybe why we shouldn't be so sanguine about it.

好吧，在2022年，科技股受打击最严重，而且直到……才触底。

Well, Okay, so in '22, tech was the hardest hit and it only bottomed in

股价。

Stock prices.

股价。

Stock prices.

当然，它们在2021年已经大涨了一波。

So granted they had had a huge run-in 2021.

回调是必然的，但你知道，我觉得2021到2022年，可以说是自1928年以来标普表现最差的年份之一，大概排在第九或第十位。

There was a pullback coming, but you know, I think '21 2022 was, I wanna say, the ninth or tenth worst year for the S and P since 1928.

那年确实很惨，全年下跌了19%。

It was up there, down 19% on the year.

情况很糟糕。

It was bad.

所以当时有很多去杠杆的情况发生。

So there were a lot of unwinds going on.

我觉得你的核心观点完全正确。

Your fundamental point, I think, is absolutely right.

这些公司的性质发生了深刻的变化，原因有两个。

The nature of these companies has changed profoundly for two reasons.

首先是财务杠杆，你说得对，现在的情况和以前大不相同了。

The first is financial leverage, which you're right, it's it's much different now.

与此相关的是，资金不再回流给股东了。

And associated with that, you don't have money going back to shareholders.

资金都流向了人工智能。

You have money going into AI.

这就是它们不同的第二个原因。

And that's the second reason they're different.

现在你不再认为这些公司是稳定的30%投资回报率或股本回报率的企业，它们可以再投资所需的部分，并把大量现金返还给股东。

You now no longer have the idea that these are steady 30% ROI, ROE businesses, that can reinvest what they need to reinvest and give a lot of cash back to shareholders.

现在，除了你所说的债券市场的利率风险之外，还有大量的再投资风险。

You now have a lot of reinvestment risk on top of role risk, as you call it, from the bond market.

所以这两个因素同时存在。

So you have these two simultaneous factors.

抵消因素是他们投资的技术，无论从实践还是理论上来说，都相当有吸引力，而且可能改变世界。

The offset is the technology that they're investing in is, you know, both in practice and in theory, pretty compelling and pretty potentially world changing.

所以到目前为止，市场愿意给予信任。

So the market so far been willing to give the benefit of the doubt.

我更担心人工智能这一块，因为最终它必须偿还那些债务，支付现金流、利息和本金。

I worry a lot more about the AI side because ultimately it's going to have to fund those those debt ish, you know, fund the debt and fund the cash flows, fund the coupons, fund the principal repayment.

但你说得对。

But you're right.

就是说，你把它包装一下，它跟三年前的情况已经大不一样了。

It kind of you know, you put a bow on it, and it's a much different package from what we had just three years ago.

对。

Yeah.

这就是为什么5%的触发点在这里真的可能起作用吗？

Is that why the 5% trigger could really come into play here?

在22年确实有点这样，我们也确实经历了市场-wide的回调，你说得对。

It it sort of did in in '22, and we did have a market wide pullback, and you're right.

比如，科技股的抛售比标普指数要严重得多。

Like, the tech stock sell off was much more acute than the S and P.

然后23年春天，一些银行出了点问题。

Then we had this this hiccup in '23 with some of the banks in the spring.

有几家银行倒闭了，或者用监管机构的话说，被“处置”了。

We had a couple of banks go under or or be, resolved, is how the regulators put it.

但这次不一样，现在我们有大量高负债的项目，全都围绕同一个主题。

But, like, this time around, now we have heavily indebted projects all built around a single theme.

我们看到私人信贷和私募股权公司用别人的钱来资助其中一些项目，流动性很差，而且很多负债或担保直接来自超大规模企业。

We've got this interplay of private, credit and private equity companies funding some of these projects with other people's money, a lot of illiquidity, and then a lot of these liabilities or guarantees coming directly from the hyperscalers.

这些在2022年都不存在，或者至少没有今天这么严重。

Like, these are all things that didn't exist in 2022 or at least not to the extent that they do today.

这就是为什么十年期国债收益率5%的触发点可能比当时更重要吗？

Is that why that 5% interest rate trigger on the ten year bears even more importance potentially than than it did then?

说实话，我觉得有很多相似之处。

I think there's a lot of the same, honestly.

根本问题是，超大规模企业当前的现金流仍然对经济很敏感。

And the fundamental thing is that ultimately, the current cash flows of the hyperscalers are still economically sensitive.

比如广告。

It's advertising.

比如高端电子产品。

It's high end electronics.

这些都是经济衰退时会被削减的东西。

It's all the things that get pulled back in a recession.

而且我们还没找到那个临界点，但美国经济在收益率曲线上肯定有一个崩溃点。

And there there we haven't found it yet, but there must be a breaking point for The US economy on the yield curve somewhere.

你知道，我们到了5%也没出现衰退。

You know, we got to five and didn't have recession.

我们在22年加息475个基点，也没出现衰退。

We got four seventy five basis point rate hikes in '22, didn't get a recession.

我们经历了两次油价飙升，也没出现衰退。

We've had two oil spikes and didn't get a recession.

所以美国经济有惊人的韧性。

So there's an amazing durability in The US economy.

但在十年期国债收益率上肯定有一个点，可能是5%，也可能是6%，到了那个点，汽车销量会大幅下降，房屋销量也会大幅下降，人们停止消费，开始出现裁员。

But there has to be a point on the tens, maybe it's five, maybe it's six, where car sales go down a ton, home sales go down a ton, people stop spending, you start to get layoffs.

我们还没看到那个点在哪里，但5%已经是一个市场开始担忧的水平了。

We haven't seen where it is, but five has been a level where the market begins to get worried about it.

而且，你知道，大型科技公司的基础现金流仍然是周期性的。

And again, you know, the the cash flows, underlying cash flows from big tech are still cyclical.

它们仍然是周期性业务。

They're still cyclical businesses.

对。

Right.

好的。

Okay.

所以我们要关注那个水平。

So we're gonna so we're gonna watch that level.

最后我想说的是，我的同事本·卡尔森写了很多关于九十年代十年期国债平均利率是5%的文章。

The last thing I would say about it, my colleague Ben Carlson has written a lot about how the average rate for the tenure in the nineteen nineties was 5%.

那是一个没有真正衰退的十年。

And that was a, a decade with no real recession.

虽然九十年代初有储贷危机，但一旦那结束，我们就相当不错了。

You had, like, early nineties, you had the S and L crisis, but, like, once that was over, we were pretty we were pretty okay.

经济在增长。

The economy grew.

股市是历史上最好的十年之一。

Stock market was one of the best stock market decades ever.

所以这个水平本身，我们可能能适应，我觉得，它本身并不是什么威胁。

So the level itself provided, like, we we can get accustomed to it, I guess, is not the threatening thing per se.

关键在于这个水平下还有别的什么情况，或者也许你觉得不是这样。

It's it's about what else is going on in the context of that level, or or or maybe not in your opinion.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

从静态角度看，你说得有道理。

It is a fair point in terms of static.

是的，平均值是5%。

Yes, the average was five.

不过，那是从80年代的15%降下来的。

However, it was coming down from 15 in the eighties.

对吧？

Right?

这是从保罗·沃尔克压低通胀、挤压经济的时候降下来的。

It was coming down from the Paul Volcker squeezed the economy of good inflation down.

所以我觉得我想说，它倾向于在17%见顶。

So I think I wanna say tends to peak at 17.

然后到了九十年代，利率降到5%，经济出现了大规模的复苏，因为资金成本下降了。

And then by the nineteen nineties, they were five, and there was a massive rejuvenation of economic growth because the cost of money had come down

这么快。

so quickly.

这是一个很大的顺风，我们现在没有。

It's a big tailwind that we do not have.

现在我们有点相反的情况。

And now we have sort of the opposite.

我们曾经有过一个世界，十年期国债每年能赚8%，现在没有了。

We had a world where you made 8% on thirty year treasuries for a decade per year, and now you're not.