伊朗停火

这是A。

This is A.

O。

O.

斯科特。

Scott.

我是《纽约时报》的评论员。

I'm a critic at The New York Times.

我和其他评论员所做的工作，与《纽约时报》所有记者每天致力于为您带来清晰、视角，最重要的是对世界更深刻理解的项目是一体的。

What I do and what the other critics here do is part of the same project that all of the journalists at The New York Times work on every day to give you clarity and perspective, and above all, a deeper understanding of the world.

当你订阅《纽约时报》时，不仅仅是让你看到头条新闻，而是让你明白所有事情是如何相互关联的。

When you subscribe to The New York Times, it's not just here are the headlines, but here's the way everything fits together.

如果你希望订阅，请前往 nytimes.com/subscribe。

If you'd like to subscribe, please go to nytimes.com/subscribe.

福克斯新闻提醒。

Fox News alert.

我们现在暂时达成了协议。

We have a deal for now.

来自《纽约时报》，我是蕾切尔·阿布拉姆斯，这里是《每日新闻》。

From The New York Times, I'm Rachel Abrams, and this is The Daily.

美国和伊朗均已确认，双方同意暂停两周。

The US and Iran have both confirmed that they have agreed to a two week pause.

看来伊朗已经接受了特朗普总统的条件。

It appears Iran has accepted president Trump's terms.

前提是海峡立即开放。

Subject to the immediate opening of the Strait.

伊朗刚刚发布的一份声明通过国家媒体播出，命令所有军事单位遵从最高领袖的指令，停止射击。

Just in out of Iran, a statement read on state run media instructing all military units to follow the supreme leader's order and stop firing.

就在特朗普设定的、可能引发与伊朗战争大规模升级的截止期限前数小时，美国和伊朗似乎达成了一项临时停火协议。

Just hours before a Trump imposed deadline that could have led to a massive escalation in the war with Iran, The United States and Iran appeared to reach a temporary ceasefire.

大卫·桑格将解释是什么促成了这项最后一刻的协议，以及如何才能使其持久生效。

David Sanger explains what led to this last minute deal and what it would take to make it stick.

今天是4月8日，星期三。

It's Wednesday, April 8.

大卫·桑格，非常感谢你在周二晚上9点35分与我们录制节目。

David Sanger, thank you so much for taping with us at 09:35PM on this Tuesday night.

这真是疯狂的一天，蕾切尔。

It's been a wild day, Rachel.

我能想象。

I can imagine.

大卫，过去两天里，整个世界似乎都屏住了呼吸，因为特朗普总统不断升级对伊朗的威胁，要求开放霍尔木兹海峡，甚至在周二早上，他几乎威胁要彻底摧毁整个国家。

David, it feels like the entire world has been holding its breath for the last two days as president Trump ratcheted up the threats on Iran to open the Straits Of Hormuz, which included Tuesday morning when he basically threatened to wipe out the entire country.

就在总统给伊朗设定的晚上8点最后期限前数小时，美国和伊朗双双宣布达成某种临时停火协议。

And just hours before the 8PM deadline that the president had given Iran to make a deal, both The United States and Iran announced that they'd reached some kind of temporary ceasefire.

我们究竟知道他们达成了什么协议？

What do we know about what they actually agreed to?

我们一直在努力理清这一点，因为美国和伊朗方面的说法，正如你所料，并不完全一致。

Well, we've been trying to sort that out because the American accounts and the Iranian accounts, as you might imagine, don't completely match up.

但特朗普总统表示，伊朗和美国同意达成为期十四天的停火协议。

But what president Trump said was that Iran and The US have agreed to a fourteen day cease fire.

在此期间，他表示伊朗将确保霍尔木兹海峡完全重新开放。

During that time, he said, Iran would commit to making sure that the Strait Of Hormuz would be fully reopened.

是的。

Mhmm.

这将使满载石油、化肥以及用于半导体生产的氦气的船队重新开始通行，缓解困扰全球经济的严重短缺。

And that that would allow this bottleneck of ships full of oil, full of fertilizer, full of helium for semiconductor production to begin flowing again and relieve these huge shortages that have been racking the world economy.

我们还不知道具体何时会发生，但美国对伊朗的轰炸几乎立即停止了。

We don't know exactly when that will happen, but the American bombing of Iran stopped almost immediately.

好的。

Okay.

所以这就是特朗普同意的内容，大卫。

So that is what Trump agreed to, David.

但你提到，停火协议最初宣布时，双方似乎并没有达成一致。

But you mentioned that it did not really seem like both sides were on the same page when the ceasefire was first announced.

如果伊朗人说他们同意了呢？

What if the Iranians said that they agreed to?

如果你只看特朗普总统的声明，你会以为霍尔木兹海峡已经像战争爆发前那样完全开放了。

Well, if you just read president Trump's announcement, you'd think that the Strait Of Hormuz was just being thrown wide open the way it was before the war started.

但如果你读一读几分钟后伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格希发布的声明，他经验丰富，多年来一直参与这些谈判。

But if you read the statement that came out a few minutes later from Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Aragashi, who's quite experienced, has been involved in many of these negotiations over the years.

他说，伊朗将在两周内暂停其防御行动，并且霍尔木兹海峡的安全通行必须与伊朗武装部队协调。

He said that Iran will cease their defensive operation for a period of two weeks and that safe passage through the Strait Of Hormuz would only be possible by coordinating with Iran's armed forces.

这意味着，在伊朗的设想中，伊朗军队将保留过去五到六周内夺取的控制权。

So that means that in the Iranian vision, the Iranian military will retain the control that it seized in the past five or six weeks.

至于他们会让船只以什么速度通行，是允许自由通行还是收取通行费，我们不得而知。

And who knows at what pace they're going to allow ships to pass, whether or not they're going to allow them to just pass freely or charge them tolls.

我们真的不知道。

We just don't know.

好的。

Okay.

所以显然，这两份声明之间存在一些差异，留有解释空间。

So obviously, some daylight between these two statements, room for interpretation.

但我们还没有谈到另一个在这里扮演重要角色的国家，那就是以色列。

But we have not talked about another country that is a major actor here, and that is Israel.

以色列当然和美国一起袭击了伊朗。

Israel, of course, attacked Iran along with The United States.

这场战争就是这样开始的。

That is how this war started.

以色列对此协议有什么说法吗？

Has Israel said anything about this agreement?

我们是否知道他们也是协议的参与方？

Do we know that they are party to it?

他们的立场是什么？

Where do they stand?

白宫告诉我们，以色列已同意这些条款，但当晚以色列总理办公室又发布了一份声明，表示支持特朗普总统的决定。

Well, the White House told us that Israel had agreed to the terms, and then later in the evening, the Israelis turned out a statement from the prime minister's office saying they support president Trump's decision.

但他们的措辞很有趣，因为他们并没有表示对此感到非常兴奋。

But it was interesting wording because they didn't say that they were terribly enthused about it.

大卫，我想稍微退一步说，就在几个小时前，彻底摧毁一个国家的威胁还摆在桌面上，这简直令人震惊。

I just wanna step back for a second, David, because it feels kind of stunning that literally just a few hours ago, this threat to wipe out an entire country was on the table.

双方甚至都不在互相沟通。

The two sides weren't even talking to each other.

我们完全不知道这个威胁意味着什么。

We had no idea what this threat meant.

直到非常最近，一切可能的选项似乎都还在考虑之中。

It just sort of felt like any possible option was on the table until very, very recently.

那么，我们是如何走到今天这一步的？双方竟然达成了临时停火协议。

So how did we get to this point where we are now with both sides having reached a temporary ceasefire agreement?

蕾切尔，你还记得，正如我们之前节目中讨论过的，随着霍尔木兹海峡关闭的影响在全球蔓延，总统感受到的压力越来越大。

Rachel, you'll remember, as we've discussed on earlier shows, the president was feeling more and more pressure as the effects of the closing of the Strait Of Hormuz was spreading around the world.

因此，他最初大发雷霆，告诉伊朗人：你们有48小时时间重新开放海峡，但伊朗人基本无视了他。

So at first, he lashed out and he said to the Iranians, you have forty eight hours to get the Strait back open, and the Iranians kind of ignored him.

然后从3月26日开始，他说，好吧。

And then starting on March 26, he said, okay.

还有十天时间来启动谈判。

There are ten days to get a negotiation going.

所以他设定了一个十天的倒计时，截止到周二晚上8点。

So he set this ten day clock essentially to Tuesday evening at 8PM.

但随着周末临近，伊朗方面仍然对他置之不理。

But as the weekend approached, the Iranians were ignoring him.

当时几乎没有进行任何沟通。

There was very little communication underway.

是的。

Mhmm.

伊朗方面还在社交媒体上嘲笑总统不断更改最后期限。

And the Iranians were mocking the president on social media for all of his changing deadlines.

然后，一场突如其来的危机打断了这一切，让所有人都转移了注意力。

Then this all got interrupted by a sudden crisis that distracted everyone from all of this.

这当然是周五发生的F-15E战斗机被击落事件。

This was, of course, the shootdown of the f 15 e fighter jet on Friday.

飞行员和武器官都弹射逃生了，但没人能找到武器官。

The pilot and the weapons officer both ejected, and no one could find the weapons officer.

对。

Right.

这实际上就是周二那一集的主题——一次极其大胆且代价高昂的武器官营救行动，他们在周六成功完成了这次营救。

That was actually the subject of Tuesday's episode, this unbelievably daring, costly rescue operation of this weapons officer, which they pulled off on Saturday.

正如我们的同事埃里克·施密特告诉我们的，这似乎鼓舞了特朗普总统，让他开始重新接续此前与伊朗的谈判和威胁。

And that, as our colleague Eric Schmidt told us, seems to have emboldened president Trump as he sort of begins to pick up where he left off with these negotiations and threats with Iran.

说得对。

That's exactly right.

记得在飞机被击落之前，总统曾暗示过，如果伊朗不退让，他将开始打击发电厂。

And remember before the shoot down of the plane, the president had hinted that if the Iranians don't relent, he was gonna begin to go after power plants, he said.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他还提到了其他基础设施。

And he suggested other infrastructure.

伊朗方面回应说，如果你摧毁我们的发电厂，那就别指望海湾地区的发电厂还能保住了。

And the Iranians came back and basically said, if you wipe out our power plants, you can say goodbye to the power plants around The Gulf.

当然，在寻找失踪飞行员期间，这一切都被搁置了。

Of course, all of this was put aside during the hunt for the missing airmen.

但到了周日早晨，复活节当天，总统还沉浸在成功营救上校的兴奋中，随即又回到了他的那些要求上。

But by Sunday morning, Easter Sunday, the president was over the high of retrieving the colonel, and he was right back in his set of demands.

而这正是两条极其古怪的社交媒体帖子中的第一条。

And that's what turned out to be the first of two truly bizarre social media posts.

那条帖子内容是什么？

And what was that post?

我来读给你听，蕾切尔。

Well, I'll read it to you, Rachel.

周二将是发电厂日和桥梁日，伊朗一并解决。

Tuesday will be power plant day and bridge day, all wrapped up in one in Iran.

打开该该死的海峡吧，你们这些疯子，不然你们就得生活在地狱里。

Open the fucking Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in hell.

等着瞧吧。

Just watch.

所以，我们暂且放下这种相当不外交的言辞。

So we'll set aside for a moment the pretty undiplomatic language.

这实际上让人们相信，总统可能愿意进一步升级，甚至大幅升级，使我们更深地卷入这场战争。

It actually led people to believe that the president might be willing to go escalate and escalate significantly in a way that would get us even deeper into this war.

所以，到周日为止，听起来有两件非常重要的事情发生了。

So, basically, by Sunday, it sounds like two very important things have happened.

一是白宫因成功营救这名飞行员和这次大胆的行动而洋洋自得。

One is that the White House is crowing from this huge victory of rescuing this airman and this daring operation.

但与此相对的是，总统仍然没有从伊朗那里得到他想要的东西。

But countering that is the fact that the president is still not getting what he wants from Iran.

正如你所说，紧张局势正在不断升级。

And as you mentioned, the tension is ratcheting up.

而这个周二晚的截止日期迫在眉睫，他们正全速朝它冲去。

And this Tuesday night deadline is looming, and they are barreling toward it.

说得完全正确。

That's exactly right.

而在周一，总统把局面搞得更糟了。

And on Monday, the president dug the hole even deeper.

首先，他在通常充满温馨气氛的复活节彩蛋活动中，走到南草坪上，当时孩子们四处奔跑。

First, he went out on the South Lawn during what's usually the very charming Easter egg roll with children running around.

他站在复活节兔子旁边，开始对伊朗升级威胁，谈论他将如何彻底摧毁伊朗的基础设施。

And standing next to the Easter bunny, he began to ratchet up the threats to Iran and talk about the depth to which he would destroy their infrastructure.

接着，他开始说，我们会摧毁伊朗的桥梁、发电厂等等，而且会在数小时内以前所未有的规模完成。

And then he began to say, you know, we will destroy Iran's bridges, their electric power plants, and so forth, and we will do it in hours on a scale no one has ever seen before.

这更加具体了，因此看起来像是进一步升级了这种言辞。

It was more specific, and therefore, it seemed again like it was ratcheting up this rhetoric.

没错。

That's right.

而在办公室里，我们也在问同一个问题，这个问题在全国各地都被提出：他究竟是真的决心将这场不受欢迎的战争推向更深的境地，还是仅仅把这些威胁当作一种策略，试图迫使伊朗体系做出反应？

And here in the office, we were asking the same question that was being asked all over the country, which is, was he truly determined to go that much deeper into an unpopular war, or was he simply using these threats as a tactic to try to see if he could get the Iranian system moving?

然后在周二早上，就在人们刚泡上咖啡、大约八点刚过的时候，又一条社交媒体消息出现了，其震撼程度甚至超过了周日的那条。

And then Tuesday morning, just as people were pouring their coffee at a little after eight in the morning, comes another social media message that actually rivaled the Sunday one.

我也来念给你听吧，蕾切尔。

Let me read that one to you too, Rachel.

请说。

Please.

整个文明将在今夜灭亡，永远无法复原。

A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.

我不希望发生这样的事，但很可能真的会发生。

I don't want that to happen, but it probably will.

然而，既然我们现在已经实现了彻底的政权更迭，由更不同、更明智、更少极端化的头脑掌权，也许会发生一些革命性的美好事情。

However, now that we have complete and total regime change where different, smarter, less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen.

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

我们今晚就会知道。

We'll find out tonight.

即使对于一位在与公众沟通方式和所做威胁方面经常打破常规的总统来说，这条社交媒体帖子也远远超出了我们以前听过特朗普说过的任何话。

Even for a president that breaks norms all the time in terms of how he speaks to the public and the threats that he makes, the rhetoric that he makes, This social media post was far beyond anything we had ever heard Trump say before.

这是一条要消灭九千万人的威胁。

This was a threat to wipe out 90,000,000 people.

没错，蕾切尔。

That's right, Rachel.

或者，至少这是我们大多数人理解的方式。

Or, certainly, that's how I think we read it and most everyone read it.

它暗示了多种可能性。

And it suggested many different things.

我的意思是，首先，总统并不仅仅在讨论击败伊朗政府或打击核设施。

I mean, the first is the president wasn't simply discussing defeating the Iranian government or going after nuclear sites here.

他谈论的是实施本质上是一场重大战争罪行的行为。

He was talking about committing what would essentially be a huge war crime.

嗯嗯。

Mhmm.

各地都做出了回应。

And there was response all over the place.

我认为特朗普疯了。

I think that Trump has lost his mind.

他不适合担任我们的总统。

He is unfit to serve as our president.

他不具备当总统的能力。

He's not capable of being the president.

当然，民主党人呼吁援引第二十五修正案，也就是内阁开会决定总统无法履行职责，并暂时将副总统接替其职位。

Democrats, of course, were calling for invoking the twenty fifth amendment, you know, in which the cabinet meets and determines that the president is unable to carry out his duties and temporarily puts the vice president in place.

他的内阁负有责任。

His cabinet has a responsibility.

我们需要援引第二十五修正案。

And we need to be invoking the twenty fifth amendment.

他应该立即根据第二十五修正案被罢免。

He should be removed using the twenty fifth amendment immediately.

但不仅仅是民主党人。

But it wasn't just Democrats.

我们该如何评估第二十五修正案？

How do we twenty fifth amendment assess?

甚至在MAGA运动内部，也有很多人对此表示批评。

Even within the MAGA movement, there were great critics of this.

亚历克斯·琼斯。

Alex Jones

问题是，启动第二十五修正案比弹劾更难。

The problem is to get the twenty fifth amendment harder than impeachment.

你需要获得众议院三分之二和参议院三分之二的支持。

You have to get two thirds of the house and two thirds of the senate.

我们该怎么做？

Do we do?

对付特朗普，假装让他继续装作总统，公开宣称他健康出了问题，让万斯接管。

Tackle Trump and and pretend let him pretend he's president and publicly report that he's going through a health issue and Vance takeover.

真的需要采取类似这样的措施。

It literally needs to be something like that.

情况已经糟糕到这种地步了。

It's that bad.

玛乔丽·泰勒·格林和坎迪斯·欧文斯曾讨论过第二十修正案。

Marjorie Taylor Greene and Candace Owens who were talking about the 20 amendment.

坎迪斯·欧文斯说必须启动第二十五修正案。

Candace Owens says the twenty fifth amendment needs to be invoked.

他是个种族灭绝式的疯子。

He is a genocidal lunatic.

塔克·卡尔森称特朗普的帖子极其恶劣。

Tucker Carlson called mister Trump's post vile.

这在每一个层面都极其恶劣。

It is vile on every level.

并建议那些直接接触总统的人必须说不。

And suggested that Those people who are in direct contact with the president need to say no.

我会辞职。

I'll resign.

也许人们不该遵从这类命令。

Maybe people shouldn't be following these kinds of orders.

我会尽我所能合法地阻止这一切，因为这太疯狂了。

I'll do whatever I can do legally to stop this because this is insane.

如果接到命令，我不会执行。

And if given the order, I'm not carrying it

还有一些人，比如威斯康星州的罗恩·约翰逊参议员，他通常对批评总统比较谨慎，但他说这根本不是美国人说话的方式，也不是总统应有的言辞。

And then there are some like senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who's usually a little more reticent about criticizing the president, who said this simply is not how Americans speak and how presidents ought to speak.

我不希望看到我们开始摧毁民用基础设施。

I do not want to see us start blowing up civilian infrastructure.

我不希望看到这种情况发生。

I do not want to see that.

我们并不是在与伊朗人民作战。

We we are not at war with the Iranian people.

我们正在努力解放他们。

We we are trying to liberate them.

所以，大卫，到一天结束时，你和我们的同事对这一威胁的真实程度有了什么了解？

So by the end of the day, David, what have you and our colleagues learned about how real this threat is?

比如，有没有证据表明军方已经以任何方式动员起来，准备发动大规模攻击？

Like, is there evidence that the military has mobilized in any way to launch any kind of massive attack?

我们看到大量飞机从美国飞往欧洲，再从欧洲前往中东，但过去五周我们一直都在看到这种情况。

Well, we saw lots of mobilization of aircraft moving from The United States to Europe and Europe on to The Middle East, but we've been seeing that for the past five weeks.

因此，很难判断这仅仅是重复以往的举动，还是一次真正的升级。

So it was hard to tell whether this was more of the same or a true escalation.

但毫无疑问，中东地区有如此多的美军力量，如果总统真想兑现这一威胁，他完全可以做到。

But certainly, there were so many American forces in the Middle East that if the president wanted to make good on this threat, he could.

当然，周二那天，时间一分一秒地流逝。

And, of course, the clock was ticking all day on Tuesday.

但我们仍然听到一些间接通过巴基斯坦外长和巴基斯坦总理进行的谈判回声。

But we were still hearing the echoes of some kind of negotiation taking place indirectly through the Pakistani foreign minister and the Pakistani prime minister.

然后在早上6点刚过，总统宣布再次暂停行动。

And then at a little after 06:00, the president announced that he was once again calling a time out here.

突然间，停火达成了，新的两周期限出台，从市场投资者到军队，再到海湾地区许多人，都长舒了一口气。

Suddenly, there was a ceasefire, a new two week long deadline, and everyone from market investors to the military to many around The Gulf just breathed this huge sigh of relief.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

我是戴恩·布鲁格勒。

I'm Dane Brugler.

我为《The Athletic》报道NFL选秀。

I cover the NFL draft for The Athletic.

我们的选秀指南之所以被称为《The Beast》，是因为其中包含了海量的信息。

Our draft guide picked up the name The Beast because of the crazy amount of information that's included.

我正在查看数千名球员，并整理数百份球探报告。

I'm looking at thousands of players putting together hundreds of scouting reports.

我从去年的选秀开始就一直在报道今年的选秀。

I've been covering this year's draft since last year's draft.

《野兽》中包含的很多内容是你在其他地方根本找不到的。

There is a lot in the beast that you simply can't find anywhere else.

这是你从《纽约时报》和《体育画报》所能获得的那种深入而独特的新闻报道。

This is the kind of in-depth unique journalism you get from The Athletic and The New York Times.

你可以在 nytimes.com/subscribe 订阅。

You can subscribe at nytimes.com/subscribe.

所以，大卫，正如你所描述的，这个停火时刻似乎带来了巨大的解脱。

So, David, as you described, this moment of ceasefire seems to be this huge relief.

但这个协议到底有多真实？它究竟意味着什么？

But how real does this deal actually feel, and what does it actually mean?

这可能意味着这场战争的结束，也可能仅仅是一次短暂的暂停。

Well, it could mean the end of this war, or it could mean just a brief pause.

停火本质上是脆弱的。

Ceasefires are fragile by nature.

我们得看看是否有人会违反它。

We're going to have to see if anybody violates it.

即使各方有纪律维持停火，我们仍需判断通过霍尔木兹海峡的航运是否已恢复到2月28日冲突爆发前的水平。

And even if they have the discipline to keep it in place, we have to determine if the traffic that's going through the Strait Of Hormuz is getting back to what it was before February 28 when the fighting broke out.

当然，现在伊朗军方仍然掌控着谁可以通过海峡。

And, of course, we're going to be in a situation now where the Iranian military actually still controls who's going through the Strait.

但在二月份时情况并非如此。

That wasn't the case back in February.

对。

Right.

对总统来说，他基本上表示，一切都必须恢复到原来的状态。

For the president, he said, basically, it's gotta go back to the way it was.

但事实是，伊朗人已经意识到这是他们最大的筹码，而他们不太可能很快放弃这种权力。

But the fact of the matter is the Iranians have now discovered this is their greatest leverage, and it's not a power they are likely to give up anytime soon.

所以，是否看到所有船只通过海峡，才是对停火的最大考验？

So was that the biggest test of the ceasefire, whether we see all these ships going through the strait?

这是对停火协议的直接考验。

That's the immediate test of the ceasefire.

但请记住，停火只是实现目标的手段，其目的是为谈判更重大的问题争取时间和空间。

But remember, the ceasefire is only the means to an end, and its purpose is to allow the time and space to go negotiate on the bigger issues.

是的。

Mhmm.

蕾切尔，奥巴马政府与伊朗达成2015年协议花了两年半时间，而那还是在和平时期。

It took two and a half years, Rachel, to negotiate the twenty fifteen agreement between the Obama administration and the Iranians, and that was in peacetime.

你可以想象，现在伊朗觉得自己因这场战争而变得更强大，谈判将会多么困难。

You can imagine how difficult it will be now at a moment when the Iranians feel like this war left them empowered.

说到这一点，战争初期，美国表示，其发动战争的重要原因之一，就是防止伊朗研制核武器。

To that point, at the outset of the war, The US said that one of its big reasons for going to war was in fact to, among other reasons, keep Iran from making a nuclear weapon.

这一点在这些讨论中似乎完全消失了。

That feels very absent from these discussions.

为什么会这样？

Why is that?

好吧，核武器问题 presumably 是他们在未来两周谈判中必须首先处理的首要问题，这将会很困难。

Well, the nuclear weapons issue is presumably the first issue they're going to have to take up in these negotiations over the next two weeks, and it's going to be hard.

之所以困难，首先是因为总统本人在这里的态度一直摇摆不定。

And the reason it's going to be hard is, first of all, the president himself has been all over the map here.

在战争爆发前，他说美国无法容忍伊朗保留任何核材料，国内的任何库存都必须清除。

Before the war broke out, he said The United States cannot tolerate Iran having any nuclear material, any of its stockpile left in the country.

所有东西都得走。

It all had to go.

但大约一周半前，他说，你知道的，我其实并不在意。

Then about a week and a half ago, he said, you know, I don't really care.

它埋得太深了。

It's buried so deep.

我们可以通过卫星监控它。

We can watch it by satellite.

而现在，他很可能又回到了战前的谈判立场，即伊朗不能保留任何核材料。

And now it's likely he's back to the negotiating position they were taking before the war, which is Iran cannot be left with any nuclear material.

如果总统让伊朗保留大量接近核武器级别的铀，那么他从伊朗那里得到的让步将比奥巴马在2015年从伊朗那里获得的还要少。

And if the president left a significant amount of near bomb grade uranium in Iran, he would be getting less out of the Iranians than Barack Obama got out of them in 2015.

坦白说，很难想象总统会愿意看到这样的报道：他发动了对伊朗的战争，却没有得到当初引发这场冲突的那些关键材料。

And, frankly, it's hard to imagine that the president wants to read that he went to war with Iran and didn't get the material that was the reason for this conflict at the start.

这让我开始思考这些谈判的整体效果，以及我们该如何看待它们。

Well, that makes me wonder about the effectiveness of these talks overall and how we should be thinking about them.

以毁灭一个国家相威胁，这真的能促使他们坐下来进行有意义的谈判，以结束战争并达成美国真正想要的要求吗？

The threat to annihilate a whole country, is that something that brought them to the table for meaningful negotiations to end the war and get demands that The United States actually wanted?

还是说，这次停火仅仅是一次临时的降级，更多是为了保全面子而非实质性的进展？

Or is this ceasefire just a temporary de escalation that serves to save face more than anything else?

这并没有带来战争开始前我们所没有的东西。

It gains nothing we didn't have before the war began.

但我认为总统应该得到肯定，因为施加的压力升级确实对促成协议起到了一定作用。

But I think you have to give credit to the president because this ratcheting up of pressure certainly played some role in forcing an agreement.

目前尚不清楚这种压力是否真的吓到了伊朗人，因为他们的决策过程分散在军方、神职人员等多个机构之间。

It's not clear whether or not it actually terrified the Iranians because their decision making process is so spread out among the military and the clerics and so forth.

不清楚这些决定是谁做出的。

It's not clear who was making these decisions.

但这无疑吓到了整个地区，我认为也吓到了那些严重依赖通过海峡运输石油的中国人。

But it certainly scared the region, And I think it scared the Chinese who were highly dependent on oil moving through the strait.

因此，总统能够利用一些施压点。

So there were pressure points that the president was able to take advantage of.

大卫，假设这个临时停火能演变为永久停火，白宫、美国究竟从这一切中获得了什么？

David, on the off chance that this temporary ceasefire leads to a permanent ceasefire, what will the White House what will The United States have actually gained from all of this?

听好了。

Look.

我认为美国和以色列已经取得了很大成就。

I think The United States and the Israelis have accomplished a lot.

他们在战争初期就除掉了最高领袖。

They took out in the opening hours of the war, the supreme leader.

他们重创了军事、情报和核能体系的多个层面。

They devastated levels of the military and intelligence and nuclear establishment.

他们延缓了导弹项目和导弹生产计划。

They set back the missile program and the missile production program.

但如果这次停火实际上成为永久性停火，而伊朗除了恢复霍尔木兹海峡的航运外没有任何改变，那么白宫几乎无法实现其任何主要目标。

But if this ceasefire essentially becomes permanent with no change in Iran beyond the restoration of traffic in the Strait Of Hormuz, then the White House will have accomplished virtually none of its major goals.

这个国家仍然由一群军事和神权精英统治，他们压迫着自己的人民。

The country is still run by a military and theocratic group of elites who have terrorized their own population.

他们仍然拥有核材料，理论上可以尝试重建并竞相制造原子弹。

They still have their nuclear material and could, in theory, try to go rebuild and race for a bomb.

他们仍然拥有导弹和无人机，虽然规模不如袭击前那么大，但我们已经了解到，他们能够相当迅速地重建。

They still have missile supplies and drones, not on the scale that they did before the attacks, but we've learned that they could rebuild fairly quickly.

最重要的是，我认为他们仍然有一种感觉，认为自己能够对抗美国和以色列，抵抗一支规模大得多的入侵力量。

And most importantly, I think, they still have a sense that they were able to stand up to The United States and Israel and resist against a much larger invading force.

大卫，我们在这档节目中多次讨论过，这场战争所破坏的一切不可能完全恢复原状。

David, we've talked on the show quite a bit about how you can't put everything back together that has been broken by this war.

这意味着经济和政治影响不会简单地回到从前的状态。

Meaning that the economic impacts, the political impacts are not going to just go back to the status quo.

即使战争今晚或两周内结束，已有如此多的基础设施被摧毁。

Even if the war ends tonight or in two weeks, so much infrastructure has been destroyed.

为了使这些影响持续多年，已经发生了太多事情。

So much has been done to make these impacts ripple for potentially years to come.

因此，我想知道，以目前的情况来看，你认为哪些后果是持久的。

And so I wonder what consequences specifically you think as of this moment feel like they are enduring.

嗯，有几方面。

Well, a few things.

首先，伊朗人发现他们对全球商业的影响力比他们之前意识到的要大得多。

First of all, the Iranians have discovered that they have a greater power than they knew over commerce around the world.

其次，海湾国家感到更加脆弱。

Second, the Gulf States feel more vulnerable.

他们建造了这些充满摩天大楼的宏伟城市，进入了二十一世纪。

They built these big beautiful cities full of skyscrapers, and they've entered the twenty first century.

那么他们发现了什么？

And what do they discover?

伊朗人可以把导弹射进他们的窗户和海水淡化厂。

That the Iranians can put missiles through their windows and through their desalination plants.

这

The

世界经济显得更加脆弱，因为我们又发现了一个新的供应链漏洞。

world economy feels more fragile because we've discovered yet another supply chain vulnerability.

我们发现，尽管美国曾以为自己又一次摆脱了中东——这是去年秋天出台的总统国家安全战略中明确的目标。

And we've discovered that while The United States thought one more time that it had gotten out of the Middle East, an explicit goal in the president's national security strategy that came out last fall.

事实上，美国已被卷入其中，其规模之大，是几个月前几乎没人能想象的。

In fact, it's been sucked back in on a scale few could have imagined even a few months ago.

我认为我们还学到了最后一点。

And I think there's a a last thing we've learned.

世界从未真正认可美国所拥有的权力，但过去通常默认美国是一个本质上仁慈的超级大国。

The world's never really approved of the amount of power The United States has had, but it's usually signed up to the thought that The US was fundamentally a benevolent superpower in the past.

然而，我认为我们在对伊朗的这次袭击中失去了大量这种声誉。

And yet, I think we lost a lot of that reputation in this attack on Iran.

人们感到总统从未真正致力于二月的外交努力，他似乎认为自己能够推翻一个虚弱的政权，能够威胁九千二百万人的生命，而这种威胁来自一位掌控着世界最强大军队的总统。

That there was a sense that the president was never committed to the February diplomacy, that there was a sense that he thought he could topple a weak regime, that he could go out and threaten the lives of 92,000,000 people, and that the threat came from a president who oversees the world's most powerful military.

最终，汽油价格会下降，石油供应也会逐渐恢复正常。

And so eventually, gas prices will come down, and eventually, oil will flow more naturally.

随着时间推移，战争造成的破坏将像日本、德国和越南那样得到重建。

And over time, the damage of the war will be rebuilt the way it was in Japan and Germany and Vietnam.

但世界是否还会像以前那样看待美国，我不确定这种看法能否在很长一段时间内恢复。

But whether the world ever views The United States quite the way it did before this happened, I'm not sure that's gonna be back for a long time.

大卫·桑格，非常感谢你。

David Sanger, thank you so much.

谢谢你，蕾切尔。

Thank you, Rachel.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

今天你还需了解的其他重要信息。

Here's what else you need to know today.

美国记者谢莉·基特尔森在巴格达被一支与伊朗结盟的伊拉克民兵组织绑架，于周二获释，此前她已被囚禁一周。

Shelley Kittleson, an American journalist who was abducted in Baghdad by an Iraqi militia aligned with Iran, was freed on Tuesday after a week in captivity.

基特尔森多年来为多家新闻机构报道中东事务，她是在交换释放数名被囚禁的民兵成员后获得自由的。

Kittleson has reported on The Middle East for more than a decade for various news outlets, and she was set free in exchange for the release of several imprisoned members of the militia.

此次绑架事件发生在美以联手对伊朗发动战争以来，伊朗支持的民兵组织袭击美国目标的担忧日益加剧之际。

The kidnapping comes amid growing anxieties about Iranian backed militias attacking American targets since The United States and Israel led war with Iran began.

本期节目由迈克尔·西蒙·约翰逊、奥利维亚·纳特和穆什·塞迪制作。

Today's episode was produced by Michael Simon Johnson, Olivia Nat, and Moosh Seidi.

本节目由MJ戴维斯·林恩编辑，并得到佩吉·科威特的帮助。

It was edited by MJ Davis Lynn with help from Paige Cowet.

节目音乐由玛丽安·洛萨诺、阿莉西亚·瓦特布和丹·鲍威尔提供。

Contains music by Marian Lozano, Alicia Vaetub, and Dan Powell.

我们的主题音乐由Wonderly创作。

Our theme music is by Wonderly.

本期节目由艾莉莎·莫克利负责制作。

This episode was engineered by Alyssa Moxley.

特别感谢Efem Shapiro。

Special thanks to Efem Shapiro.

以上就是《每日新闻》的全部内容。

That's it for The Daily.

我是Rachel Abrams。

I'm Rachel Abrams.

明天见。

See you tomorrow.