美联储迎来新领袖——以及新的对决

我叫苏珊·李。

I'm Susan Lee.

我是《每日新闻》的调查研究员和事实核查员。

I'm a researcher and fact checker with The Daily.

我的工作就是确保我们每一集的内容细节都准确无误。

What I do is make sure details in our episodes are accurate.

对我们来说，每一集里的每一个事实都至关重要。

For us, every single fact in an episode matters.

《每日新闻》是《纽约时报》旗下的节目。

The Daily is part of The New York Times.

我们尽一切努力确保事实绝对正确。

We do everything we can to make sure we get the facts right.

正是订阅用户的支持，才让我们能做这些工作。

Subscribers make it possible for us to do that.

如果你想订阅《纽约时报》，请访问 nytimes.com/subscribe。

If you wanna subscribe to The New York Times, go to nytimes.com/subscribe.

来自《纽约时报》，我是迈克尔·比尔巴罗。

From the New York Times, I'm Michael Bilbaro.

这里是《每日新闻》。

This is The Daily.

周三下午，经过一年的施压和威胁，总统终于撤换了全国最有权势金融机构的主席——虽说方式有点勉强。

On Wednesday afternoon, after a year of harassing and threatening, the chairman of the most powerful financial institution in the country, president Trump finally replaced him, sort of.

今天，科比·史密斯为您讲述总统如何结束了一场与美联储的对峙，却又引发了新的僵局。

Today, Colby Smith on how the president ended one standoff at the Federal Reserve only to create a new one.

今天是五月十四日，星期四。

It's Thursday, May 14.

赞成票五十四票，反对票四十五票，提名获得通过。

The ayes are 54, the nays are 45, The nomination is confirmed.

参议院的决定将立即通知总统。

The president will be immediately notified of the Senate's action.

参议院确认凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席。

The Senate is confirming Kevin Warsh as the next chair of Federal Reserve.

这项任命让特朗普提名的候选人，在物价高企和经济充满不确定性的时期，掌管利率政策。

The move puts president Trump's pick in charge of interest rate policy during a time of high prices and economic uncertainty.

科比，我们现在处在一个非常微妙的局面。

Colby, we find ourselves in a very curious place.

就在几个小时前，美国参议院刚刚确认了特朗普提名的美联储主席人选，来接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔。要知道，总统对鲍威尔可是恨之入骨。

Just a few hours ago, the US Senate confirmed president Trump's choice to replace Jerome Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Powell whom the president has hated with the heat of a thousand suns.

然而，鲍威尔却拒绝彻底退场。

And yet Powell is refusing to entirely see the stage.

虽然他不再担任美联储主席，但他做出了一个非常出人意料的决定，继续留在美联储，而不是退休。

Even though he's no longer gonna be chairman of the Fed, he's made this very surprising decision to stay on at the Fed, not retire.

这就造成了一种极其罕见的局面，新旧两任美联储主席试图在央行内部共存，这很可能演变成一场非常混乱的局面。

And it's created this totally unusual scenario, old and new Fed chairs trying to somehow coexist inside the central bank in what is quite likely gonna be a very messy situation.

所以，请帮我们梳理一下，过去几周里究竟发生了哪些事，才导致我们走到今天这一步。

So talk us through the events that got us to this moment over the past few weeks.

所以，美联储目前正处于一个非常复杂的时刻。

So it's a really complicated moment for the Federal Reserve.

杰罗姆·鲍威尔决定留任美联储，打破了长达数十年的传统。

Jerome Powell's decision to stay on at the Fed breaks with really decades of tradition.

对。

Mhmm.

上一次发生这种情况还是在上世纪四十年代末，当时是总统哈里·杜鲁门亲自要求的。

The last time this happened was in the late nineteen forties, and that was at the request of the president at the time, Harry Truman.

显然，这次的情况完全不一样。

So this is obviously a very different situation.

正如你所说，特朗普和鲍威尔在特朗普第二任期的大部分时间里都关系紧张。

As you said, Trump and Powell, they've been at loggerheads for most of Trump's second term.

我实在想不起来，历史上有哪位美联储主席是在总统明确不希望他留任的情况下，还坚持留任的。

And I can't remember a time in history in which a Fed chair stayed on past the end of his tenure when the president explicitly didn't want him to.

对。

Mhmm.

美联储现在可真是出了个怪人。

We have a fool at the Federal Reserve.

他简直是个十足的蠢货。

He's an absolute fool.

而这一决定源于特朗普总统对鲍威尔和美联储发起的一场史无前例的施压行动，起因是鲍威尔拒绝降息。

And this whole decision stemmed from an extraordinary pressure campaign launched by president Trump against Powell and the Fed for Powell's refusal to lower interest rates.

现在我们有个人就是死活不肯降息，就是不肯干。

Now we have a man that just refuses to lower the Fed rate, just refuses to do it.

而且他这人也不聪明。

And he he's not a smart person.

他脑子有点问题。

And there's something wrong with him.

就是件挺荒唐的事。

It's just sweet thing.

说实话。

I I'd be honest.

我真想把他炒了。

I'd love to fire his ass.

他应该没问题。

He should be fine.

这人简直太不称职了。

Guy's grossly incompetent.

而且这件事真的彻底失控了。

And it really took on a whole life of its own.

特朗普总统对美联储主席鲍威尔的长期不满，现在已经彻底升级到了白热化阶段。

President Trump's long simmering war against Jay Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, it has officially gone nuclear.

特朗普总统的主要目标之一，美联储主席，如今正面临刑事调查。

One of president Trump's top targets, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, is now under criminal investigation.

这项调查涉及鲍威尔关于美联储装修成本的证词。

The investigation involves Powell's testimony into the cost of building renovations at the Fed.

最终，司法部针对鲍威尔和美联储发起了刑事调查，起因就是华盛顿总部大楼的装修问题。

And it culminated in this criminal investigation launched by the justice Department against Powell and the Fed over these renovations of its headquarters in Washington.

在很多方面，这招对特朗普来说简直是弄巧成拙，效果适得其反。

And this, in a lot of ways, just ended up backfiring spectacularly against Trump.

这事儿看着挺可疑的。

It looks fishy.

谢谢。

Thank you.

你怎么这么说的？

What do say that?

情况看起来不太妙。

It doesn't look great.

如果你想设计一个让利率上升而不是下降的系统，那就让美联储和美国行政部门互相较劲好了。

If you wanted to design a system to cause interest rates to go up and not down, you would have the Federal Reserve of the United States and the executive branch of the United States get into a pissing contest.

我希望他们能找到确凿证据之类的，毕竟不能随便招惹美联储，也就是中央银行。

I hope they have a smoking gun or something because I don't think you trifle with the Federal Reserve, with the Central Bank.

因为这项调查的存在，反而成了特朗普的一大阻碍，让他一直想要的目标没法实现，也就是让鲍威尔下台，然后由他亲自任命一位新的美联储主席。

Because the existence of this investigation ended up becoming a big impediment to Trump getting exactly what he's wanted for a long time, which is Powell to leave and for him to be able to put in a new person as Fed chair.

没错。

Right.

到这个时候，特朗普已经选好了他中意的新任美联储主席人选——凯文·沃什，而就在这一系列调查风波上演之际，特朗普提名了他。

And Trump has, by this point, picked this person he wants to be his new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, whom Trump nominated as this investigation drama is playing out.

没错。

Exactly.

在调查结果出来之前，我在我参议员任期剩下的时间里，不会支持任何美联储提名的人选。

Until the investigation is resolved, I cannot and I will not vote to support anyone on the Federal Reserve in my remaining tenure in the US Senate.

事情是这样的，来自北卡罗来纳州的退休共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯表示，只要针对鲍威尔的法律威胁不解除，他就不会支持特朗普的任何美联储提名人选。

And what happened here is that Tom Tillis, a retiring Republican senator from North Carolina, said he would not support any of Trump's Fed nominees until the legal threats into Powell had ended.

明白。

Mhmm.

我担心的是，居然有美国检察官或者助理检察官觉得，就在美联储主席职位即将空缺前几个月，把鲍威尔拉进调查里，这事儿挺有意思。

The problem that I have here is that we had some US attorney with a dream or assistant US attorney thinking it would be cute to bring chair Powell under an investigation just a few months before the position was going to be open.

这招确实很管用，因为蒂利斯在参议院银行委员会里握着关键一票，而这个委员会负责审核美联储提名人的确认程序。

And this was a really potent tool because Tillis had a pivotal vote on the Senate Banking Committee, which oversees oversees the confirmation process for Fed nominees.

他完全可以阻止特朗普提名接替鲍威尔的人选。

He literally could block Trump's pick to replace Powell.

没错。

Exactly.

考虑到共和党在参议院的微弱多数，他的反对实际上阻断了整个提名流程，让特朗普非常想推进的事情彻底停了下来。

Just given the slim majority that Republicans have, his opposition to allowing the confirmation process to proceed created this blockade of sorts that put on pause something that Trump had really, really wanted.

只要这事没解决，我的态度就是反对。

Until the matter is solved, I'm a no.

但我们要记住，这次调查的依据根本站不住脚。

And I think what's important to remember about this is that the grounds of the investigation were so spurious.

调查针对的是一个超支了数百万美元的翻修项目。

It was about this renovations project that had gone millions of dollars over budget.

但预算超支本身并不是犯罪。

But cost overruns, they're not a crime.

从一开始就很清楚，这项调查明显带有政治动机。

And I think it was clear from the very get go that this investigation was really politically charged.

这种前所未有的举动，应该放在整个政府施压和威胁的大背景下来看。

This unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration's threats and ongoing pressure.

鲍威尔在调查公开后不久发表的那份非同寻常的声明中，也表达了同样的意思。

Powell says as much in this extraordinary statement shortly after the investigation went public.

上次我上节目时，我们就聊过这个话题。

We talked about it the last time I was on the show.

对。

Right.

这关乎美联储能否继续依据证据和经济状况来制定利率，还是说货币政策会被政治压力或恐吓所左右。

This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions, or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.

没过多久，一位联邦法官也强烈反对这项调查。

And a short while later, we had a federal judge also coming out strongly against the investigation.

这位法官基本上毫不含糊地指出，这其实是为了给鲍威尔施压、骚扰他，好让总统安插一个更听话的人。

This judge basically said in no uncertain terms that this was about pressuring and harassing Powell so the president could install someone who's more amenable to his demands.

所以，针对这项调查的反对声浪越来越大，而且很明显，它在法律基础上非常站不住脚。

So you had all of this opposition mounting to this investigation, and it was quite clear it was on really shaky legal footing.

所以问题一直在于，特朗普什么时候会退缩？

So the question all along was, when would Trump blank?

他们还要继续推进一个根本没有前途的调查多久呢？尤其是在这危及到特朗普一直渴望得到的东西的时候。

How long would they continue to pursue an investigation that really had no future, especially when it was jeopardizing this thing that Trump had long wanted?

对。

Right.

突然之间，特朗普被迫要在报复他讨厌的联储主席，和换掉他讨厌的联储主席之间做出选择。

Suddenly, Trump was being asked to choose between revenge against the Fed chair he hates and replacing that Fed chair he hates.

在你描述的这个阶段，他似乎选择了报复，而不是换人。

And in this period you're describing, he was kinda choosing revenge over replacement.

没错。

Absolutely.

而且这里还有个时间上的紧迫性。

And there was a time element here.

鲍威尔的任期在5月15日到期，他们时间紧迫，得赶紧让特朗普提名的凯文·沃什接任这个职位。

Powell's term was up May 15, and they were running out of time to get Trump's nominee, Kevin Warsh, into that role.

对。

Mhmm.

所以我们都在等，看他们接下来会怎么推进，但不断有迹象表明，他们离放弃这项调查还远得很。

So we're all waiting to figure out how they're gonna proceed here, and we keep getting signs that they're nowhere close to dropping this investigation.

主席说，不行。

The chairman says, no.

不行。

No.

你们这是在破坏美联储的独立性。

You're attacking the independence of the Federal Reserve.

我们可不是这么做的。

That's not what we're doing.

我们只是在履行自己的职责。

We're doing our job.

哥伦比亚特区的联邦检察官珍妮恩·皮罗，正是她启动了这项调查，她至今仍表示会继续推进。

US attorney for the District of Columbia, Jeanine Pirro, who launched this investigation continues to say she's pursuing this investigation.

联邦检察官昨天突然造访了美联储，作为他们对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔调查的一部分。

Federal prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the Federal Reserve yesterday as part of their investigation into Fed chair Jerome Powell.

这件事最近有什么新进展吗？

What's the latest on that?

是的。

Yeah.

这非常不寻常。

This was highly unusual.

我们

We're

她团队的一些成员曾亲自去美联储，想参观那个正在施工的地点，四处打探一下。

Members of her team at one point went to the Fed itself to try to visit the active construction site and poke around a little bit.

当时各种说法混杂，我觉得这开始影响鲍威尔对他在美联储下一步行动的表态。

There was just a lot of mixed messages at this point, and it started to impact, I think, how Powell began to speak about what he was going to do at the Fed.

在调查彻底结束、做到公开透明之前，我完全没有离开董事会的打算。

I have no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality.

至于调查结束后、我的任期届满时，我是否还会继续担任理事，我目前还没做决定。

On the question of whether I will then continue to serve as a governor after my term ends and after the investigation is over, I have not made that decision yet.

所以鲍威尔手里还剩下一个筹码。

So Powell has one tool of leverage left in his arsenal.

他的主席任期在5月15日结束，但 technically 他还可以继续担任美联储理事会的理事。

His term as chair ends May 15, but technically, he can stay on as a member of the Fed's Board of Governors.

这是一个由七人组成的委员会，负责做出关于利率、政策以及美联储内部人事安排等重大决策。

This is a seven person board who makes really important decisions about interest rates and policy and internal staffing decisions at the Fed.

所以这是一个很重要的职位。

So it's an important position.

而且鲍威尔之前对打算做什么一直含糊其辞。

And Powell had been really vague about what he planned to do.

司法部正在叫停一项极具争议的调查。

The justice department is calling off one of its most controversial investigations.

贾宁·皮罗表示，她决定终止对杰伊·鲍威尔以及美联储大楼建设项目的调查。

Janine Piro says she's dropping her investigation, looking at Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve construction.

最后，在4月24日，也就是鲍威尔任期结束前几周，皮罗终于妥协，宣布撤销此案。

And finally, on April 24, so just a couple weeks before the end of Powell's term, Pirro finally caves and announces that she's dropping the case.

美国检察官贾妮娜·皮罗补充说，如果事实表明有必要，她将毫不犹豫地重新启动刑事调查。

US attorney Janine Pirro added, I will not hesitate to restart a criminal investigation should the facts warrant doing so.

你刚刚提到她

You just turned She

这让她保留了随时重新启动调查的选项，但她基本上表示要结束这次调查了。

keeps open the option of starting it again at any point, but she essentially says that she's wrapping up her investigation.

她差不多是把这件事移交给了美联储的监察长。

She kind of hands off the job to the inspector general at the Fed.

好了。

There.

我准备推进对沃什先生的确认程序。

I am prepared to move on with the confirmation of mister Warsh.

我觉得他会成为一位出色的美联储主席。

I think he's gonna be a great Fed chair.

这个结果足以让蒂利斯停止对特朗普提名的美联储主席人选凯文·沃什的阻挠，但对鲍威尔来说还不够。

And that outcome was sufficient for Tillis to end his blockade against Trump's Fed nominee, Kevin Warsh, but it wasn't enough for Powell.

上周五，华盛顿特区联邦检察官宣布已结案，对此我表示欢迎。

I welcomed the announcement last Friday by the US attorney for the District Of Columbia that she had closed the criminal investigation.

不过她也提到，如果情况需要，她随时会重启调查。

She also noted, however, that she would not hesitate to restart the investigation.

在四月份担任主席期间的最后一次新闻发布会上，鲍威尔明确表示，他并不认为政府的调查已经彻底结束。

At the April, in his last press conference as chair, Powell makes clear he is not convinced whatsoever that the administration's investigation is over.

我对此类事项的决定，将完全基于我认为最符合机构利益以及我们所服务民众利益的原则。

My decisions on these matters will continue to be guided entirely by what I believe is in the best interest of the institution and the people we serve.

我担任主席的任期将在5月15日结束，之后我会继续担任理事，具体时长待定。

After my term as chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time to be determined.

正因如此，他正在动用自己唯一的筹码。

And because of that, he is using his one tool of leverage.

他打算继续留在美联储。

He's gonna stay on at the Fed.

你知道，我留下来纯粹是因为已经采取的那些行动。

You know, I'm literally staying because of the actions that have been taken.

我本来早就计划好要退休了，但你知道，最近这三个月发生的那些事，我觉得让我别无选择，只能留任到把这些事情处理完，至少得撑过这段时间。

I I had long planned to be retiring, and, you know, the things that have happened in really in the last three months have, I think, left me no choice but to stay until I see them through at least that long.

所以，对鲍威尔来说，要想让调查真正彻底结束，达到透明和定论的标准，目前肯定还没达到。

So that threshold for Powell in terms of the investigation being well and truly over with transparency and finality, that's definitely not reached.

但他说的更主要的原因是，特朗普持续对美联储的攻击，已经以关键方式危及了该机构。

But the bigger reason, he says, is that Trump's ongoing attacks on the institution have imperiled the Fed in a pivotal way.

像这样的行为。

Such actions.

我担心这些攻击正在重创美联储，并危及公众最关心的核心利益，也就是能够不受政治因素干扰地制定货币政策。

I I worry that these attacks are battering the institution and putting at risk the thing that really matters to the public, which is the ability to conduct monetary policy without taking into consideration political factors.

这对我们的经济和我们服务的大众至关重要，他们需要在长时间内信赖一家能这样运作、不受政治影响的央行。

It is so important for our economy, for the people that we serve, that they can depend over time on a central bank that operates that way free of political influence.

这使得美联储面临被过度政治化的风险，也让美国经济面临被削弱的可能。

It has risked the Fed becoming more politicized, and it has risked The US economy being undermined.

对他来说，这不仅仅是关乎他个人和他的未来，也不仅仅是那项调查。

For him, it's not just about him and his future and the investigation.

这关乎央行的未来，以及它能否在不受政治干预的情况下正常运作。

It's about the future of the central bank and its ability to operate free of political meddling.

那么，在鲍威尔看来，他继续留在美联储理事会但不再担任主席，如何能确保央行保持独立，并抵御总统的攻击呢？

And how does staying on the Fed's board of governors, but not leading it, in Powell's mind, ensure that the Fed remains independent and can withstand these attacks from the president?

最基本的一点是，只要鲍威尔留下，就能阻止特朗普提名其他人进入美联储理事会。

So at the most basic level, by staying on, Powell blocks Trump's ability to nominate another person to the Fed's board of governors.

明白。

Mhmm.

这一点很关键，因为理事会里愿意听从总统指令的人越多，央行就越容易变成政府的附庸。

Now this is important because the more people on the board of governors who are willing to do the president's bidding, the more likely it is that the institution becomes an extension of the administration.

当然，特朗普原本有权任命一位新主席来接替鲍威尔。

Now Trump, of course, had the ability to name a new Fed chair in replacing Powell.

但既然鲍威尔选择留下，特朗普就再也无法增补另一位理事了。

But with Powell staying on, Trump would no longer be able to add another governor.

这实际上削弱了特朗普对理事会的控制力。

And so what it effectively did was reduce Trump's influence over the board.

而且必须强调的是，理事会的权力真的很大。

And it's really important to underscore that the board of governors is really powerful.

这些政策制定者在利率走向、银行监管政策、美联储内部人事调整，以及全国各地地区分行行长的任命上，都起着关键作用。

These policymakers are absolutely pivotal in the direction of interest rates, in the direction of bank regulatory policy, in staffing changes inside the Fed, and also as it relates to the regional bank presidents that sit across the country.

对。

Mhmm.

所以他们在塑造美联储的运作方式上扮演着至关重要的角色。

So they play a really crucial role in shaping how the Fed operates.

如果理事会里支持者占多数，真的能左右整个机构的走向。

So having a majority of supporters on the board can really sway the institution one way or the other.

因为鲍威尔把留下理事会的决定和美联储的调查联系在了一起。

Because Powell linked his decision to stay on the board to the investigation into the Fed.

所以我得问一句，他留下，会不会在法律上保护他，避免调查被重新开启？

I guess I have to ask, does remaining in any way protect him from that investigation being reopened legally?

从法律上讲，他留下与否，对调查本身以及他是否可能成为刑事调查对象，并没有太大影响。

So from a legal standpoint, staying on doesn't really change much in terms of the investigation and his ability to be the subject of any kind of criminal probe.

不过，作为现任理事，他能享受到相应的待遇和保护。

On the margins, He is conferred benefits and protection by being a sitting governor.

总统不能随随便便就把他撤了。

A president can't just remove him at will.

这对他来说是个有利因素。

So that stands in his favor.

但留任这件事真正说明的是，这已经超出了调查本身。

But what staying on really shows is that this is bigger than the investigation itself.

他真心觉得这事关乎机构本身，而且利害关系太大，他不能就这么离开。

He really believes this is about the institution, and the stakes are simply too high for him to leave.

对。

Mhmm.

所以既然留在董事会其实并不能给鲍威尔提供多少法律上的保护，那我们看来基本上只能相信他的说法，认为他留下来是为了更广泛地保护美联储免受特朗普的干涉，并让美联储保持成他心目中的样子。

So given that, the reality that sticking around on the board doesn't really offer much of a legal shield for Powell, it seems we're pretty much taking him at his word here that he wants to stay on to more broadly protect the Fed from Trump's encroachments and keep the Fed looking like basically Jerome Powell's version of the Fed.

没错。

Right.

从一开始就会出现一种紧张局面：鲍威尔卸任主席后，办公室搬到了美联储大楼里隔几间的屋子，新来的沃什接手了主席位置，但没人知道这局面该怎么运转。

And I think there's gonna be this tension right from the get go where you basically have Powell stepping down his chair, moving his offices inside the Fed's building, a couple offices down from his old one, this new guy coming in, Warsh, and people really don't know how it's gonna work.

鲍威尔说他当理事时会保持低调，但只要他在利率决策会议前发言，或者公开发表讲话，大家还是会密切关注他的动向。

Powell has said he's gonna keep a low profile as a governor, but people are gonna pay attention to him when he speaks up either inside the room ahead of rate decisions or if he ever makes a speech publicly.

整个氛围简直尴尬到极点，我觉得在央行这个关键时期，根本没人说得清到底谁说了算。

It has all the makings of an incredibly awkward environment where I think people are not really going to understand who is in charge at this crucial moment for the central bank.

更添尴尬的是，接替鲍威尔的凯文·沃什，一直猛烈批评他任主席期间的所有做法。

And I think what adds to the awkwardness here is that the person replacing Powell, Kevin Warsh, is a huge critic of him and everything he's done in his tenure as chair.

他甚至公开呼吁彻底换血。

And he has gone so far as to call for regime change.

大家都在想，他到底会把这事推进到什么地步？

And the question on everyone's minds is how far is he gonna push it?

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

大游艇、雷克萨斯，到处炫耀财富。

Oh, big yacht, the Lexus, bragging about money.

这些都只是摆设。

Those are just props.

那不是真正的动力。

That's not the engine.

我的音乐靠的不是这些东西引发的情感。

That's not the emotion that my music is running on.

那当然就是杰伊·佐。

That is, of course, Jay Z.

我是约翰·卡拉蒙尼卡，纽约时报《30位最伟大的在世美国词曲作者》项目的评审之一。

I'm John Karamonika, one of the critics behind the New York Times' 30 Greatest Living American Songwriters Project.

我们采访了名单上的一些词曲作者，包括泰勒·斯威夫特，她已经很久没接受过这样的视频采访了。

We interviewed some of the songwriters on our list, including Taylor Swift, who hasn't sat for a video like this in a long time.

没错。

Yeah.

批评一直是我创作的重要动力，就像个写作灵感一样。

Criticism has been a huge fuel for me, like a creative writing prompt or something.

这些对话可不一般。

These are not ordinary conversations.

这些创作界的顶尖人物，分享了他们很少对外透露的创作过程。

These creative superstars are sharing parts of their process in ways that you rarely have access to.

除了艰难地选出这30个人，我们还请来了音乐界的大腕来发表看法。

On top of the mad task of picking only 30 people, we also went out and got some music world heavyweights to weigh in.

免费观看所有视频访谈，了解更多关于《纽约时报》30位最伟大的在世美国词曲作者项目的详情，请访问 nytimes.com/30greatest 或使用我们的App。

Watch all the video interviews for free and check out the entire 30 greatest living American songwriters project at nytimes.com/30greatest or in the app.

也告诉我们，你是否认同我们的选择。

And let us know if you agree with our picks.

我猜你肯定不会同意。

I bet you won't.

那么，科比，跟我们说说科比·沃什吧，这位新任美联储主席，他为什么批评鲍威尔和鲍威尔领导的美联储？

So, Colby, tell us about Kevin Warsh, this incoming Fed chair, and the basis for his critique of Powell and Powell's Fed.

对沃什来说，这有点像衣锦还乡。

So this is a bit of a homecoming for Warsh.

他在2006年到2011年期间担任美联储理事，正好赶上了全球金融危机最严重的时期。

He served as a governor at the Fed between 2006 and 2011, and this overlapped with the height of the global financial crisis.

他在制定美联储应对这场危机的政策中发挥了关键作用。

And he was pivotal in crafting the Fed's response to that moment.

也正是在那时候，他对央行的批评开始慢慢形成。

And that's where really the source of his criticism against the central bank started to brew.

就是在那段时间。

During this period.

就是在那段时间。

During this period.

他2011年离开美联储，是因为对央行在金融危机后过度干预金融市场和全球经济的做法感到不满。

He ended up leaving in 2011 over a disagreement about how interventionist the Fed had become in financial markets and in the global economy because of its response to the financial crisis.

既然他自己当时深度参与了这些干预，那他具体对美联储的哪些做法有意见呢？

What specifically was his criticism of the Fed's intervention starting after the financial crisis if he himself was highly involved in it.

你回想一下2008年危机的时候，银行都不愿意放贷了。

So if you think back to the two thousand eight crisis, banks weren't lending.

当时出现了银行倒闭。

You had bank failures.

经济几乎完全停摆了。

It was a kind of a full stop on the economy.

对。

Mhmm.

所以美联储做了两件事。

So the Fed, they did two things.

首先，他们把利率降到零，但光这样还不足以稳定局势。

First, they drove interest rates down to zero, but that wasn't enough to stabilize things.

于是他们又采取了一项当时非常罕见的措施。

So they did something else highly unusual at the time.

他们开始大量购入政府债券和抵押贷款支持证券，这让他们的资产规模大幅扩张，也就是所谓的资产负债表。

They started buying up huge quantities of government bonds and mortgage backed securities that increased their portfolio of holdings, otherwise known as the balance sheet.

沃什最初是支持这一应对措施的。

And Warsh, he was on board for this initial response.

但从他的角度看，美联储最终走得太过头了。

But from his perspective, the Fed eventually took it too far.

我觉得有必要看看这些数据，因为在2008年金融危机之前，美联储的资产负债表还不到一万亿美元。

And I think it's important to look at the numbers here because before the two thousand eight financial crisis, the Fed's balance sheet was less than 1,000,000,000,000.

到危机结束时，已经超过了四万亿美元。

And by the end of the crisis, it was over 4,000,000,000,000.

天啊。

Wow.

所以涨了四倍。

So four x.

没错。

Exactly.

而且之后还继续膨胀。

And it got even bigger.

这正是他如今批评美联储的核心所在。

And this is the crux of his criticism about the Fed as it stands today.

疫情之后，资产负债表最高时接近九万亿美元。

After the pandemic, the balance sheet peaked at close to $9,000,000,000,000.

现在大概在六点五万亿左右。

It's now somewhere around 6 and a half trillion.

对沃什来说，资产负债表 really 象征着自他离开以来央行出现的所有问题。

And for Warsh, the balance sheet, it's really emblematic of everything that has gone wrong at the central bank since he left it.

我认为，美联储的资产负债表在……方面扮演了特别不太有利的角色。

The Fed balance sheet has played a particularly, I think, unhelpful role in

在最近的一次参议院确认听证会上，他说这个工具有好几个问题。

In his recent Senate confirmation hearing, he says that there are several reasons why this tool is problematic.

首先，他认为扩大资产负债表实际上对美国 economy 不利。

First and foremost, he makes the case that expanding the balance sheet is actually bad for The US economy.

他说这会加剧不平等。

He says it exacerbates inequality.

美联储有利率工具和资产负债表工具。

The Fed has an interest rate tool and a balance sheet tool.

我觉得利率工具能更精准地发挥作用。

My view is the interest rate tool gets in the cracks.

它更公平。

It's fairer.

资产负债表工具 disproportionately 帮助了那些拥有金融资产的人。

The balance sheet tool disproportionately helps those with financial assets.

利率工具影响的是整个经济。

The interest rate tool hits the entire economy.

他还警告说，这可能会加剧通货膨胀。

And he also warns that it risks making inflation worse.

如果2006年我刚到美联储时，资产负债表没有从8000亿美元飙升到现在的水平，我觉得利率本可以更低，通胀能控制得更好，经济也会更强劲。

Had the balance sheet not been brought from the $800,000,000,000 level when I showed up at the Fed in 2006 to an order of magnitude higher, I think interest rates could be lower, inflation could be better, and the economy could be stronger.

但他的批评不止停留在经济层面。

But his critique, it goes beyond economics.

庞大的资产负债表已经变成了一种常态化的力量，我认为这非常不利，也是美联储卷入政治事务的原因之一。

The big balance sheet has become an ordinary recurring force, and I think has been quite unhelpful and is part of the reason why the Fed is in the business of politics.

他还认为，美联储搞这种刺激政策，其实越过了国会赋予它的职权范围。

He also thinks that when the Fed does this kind of stimulus, it creeps outside of its congressional mandate.

他说，美联储这么做，可能会损害它的公信力和独立性。

And he says that when the Fed does this, it potentially threatens the Fed's credibility and its independence.

我们得想办法把资产负债表缩下来。因为当美联储持有的未偿还债务规模超过金融市场的许多部分时，这其实就是变相的财政政策。

We're gonna have to find out a way in which we can take the balance sheet and make it smaller because a large balance sheet where the Fed owns more outstanding debt than many parts of the financial markets, that's fiscal policy in disguise.

美联储应该退出财政领域，专注于货币政策，做好国会交给我们的本职工作。

Fed needs to get out of the fiscal business, focus on the monetary business the Fed can deliver on the remit you gave us.

所以当沃什谈到政权更迭时，他所说的很大一部分是指重新定义美联储在经济和全球金融体系中的运作方式。

So when Warsh talks about regime change, a big part of what he means by that is redefining how the Fed should operate in the economy and the global financial system.

我认为，他在这里试图做的是尽量减少美联储在许多方面所表现出的干预程度。

What he's trying to do here is to minimize, I think, how interventionist the Fed really is in a lot of ways.

对他来说，这不仅会减少央行造成的经济损害程度，还会遏制他视为对美联储机构信誉构成威胁的职能扩张。

And for him, that would not only reduce the degree of economic harm caused by the central bank, but it would also rein in this mission creep that he sees as a threat to the Fed's institutional credibility.

明白。

Mhmm.

简单问一个问题。

Simple question.

Warsh说得对吗？

Is Warsh right?

让我再具体一点。

And let me get even more specific.

他在通胀问题上说得对吗？

Is he right about inflation?

我们目前还处在一个通胀压力比较大的时期。

We are living through still a rather inflationary era in American financial life.

那么，美联储是不是真的在其中起了推波助澜的作用呢？

So is he correct that the Fed played a role in creating that?

我觉得这个问题挺复杂的，因为导致今天高通胀的原因有很多。

So I think it's a complicated answer, unfortunately, because there were a lot of reasons to explain the high inflation environment that we're in today.

对Warsh来说，他手里有个很典型的例子，能说明美联储的过度干预是怎么引发通胀并扭曲金融市场的，他把目光投向了2020年的疫情。

So for Warsh, he has in hand a very clear example of how the Fed's overreach has created inflation and caused distortion in financial markets, And he points to the pandemic in 2020.

美联储强力介入。

The Fed steps in forcefully.

它把利率降到零，开始无限量购买国债，其反应规模远超我们在2008年全球金融危机期间所见的任何情况。

It lowers rates to zero, starts buying unlimited government bonds, and the response eclipsed anything that we saw during the two thousand eight global financial crisis.

对沃什来说，问题在于美联储这种超常的支持持续了太长时间。

And for Warsh, the problem was is that the Fed kind of continued this extraordinary support for too long.

甚至美联储的一些官员也开始认同这一观点，认为他们本可以更早停止购买债券。

And even some officials at the Fed have kind of come around to this idea that they could have stopped buying bonds earlier.

我觉得这是因为这次事件导致了四十年来最严重的通胀，而且这一切都是在鲍威尔任期内发生的。

And I think that is because this episode created the worst inflation that we had seen in four decades, and that all happened under Powell's watch.

对于鲍威尔的支持者来说，他们还可以指出其他因素来解释当前的通胀局面。

For supporters of Powell, there are other things that you can point to to explain this inflation situation.

比如，我们之前提到过的，拜登总统在疫情期间向美国民众发放的大规模刺激支票。

Such as, because we covered it, president Biden's large stimulus who wrote checks to Americans during the pandemic.

没错。

Exactly.

当时美国民众获得了极其庞大的支持，而更重要的是，供应链完全停摆了。

There was an exorbitant amount of support provided to Americans at a time, and this is perhaps most important, that supply chains were shuttered.

需求暴增，供应却受限，这种失衡推高了物价。

So you had all of this demand with constrained supply, and this mismatch created Higher prices.

物价上涨。

Higher prices.

于是，这成了批评者指责鲍威尔和美联储偏离正轨的契机。

And so this became the kind of opening, I think, for critics against Powell and the Fed to say that he had led the institution astray.

那沃什的另一个观点呢？他认为，通过这些大规模干预，鲍威尔领导的美联储越界了，对所有人都是坏事。

And what about Warsh's kind of secondary critique here, which is that through these huge interventions, Powell's Fed has overstepped its role in a way that's just bad for everybody.

这种看法普遍吗？

Is that view widely held?

这种说法确实越来越有市场了。

So it's an argument that has definitely gained traction.

我们还听到财政部长斯科特·贝森提出过类似观点，特别是针对美联储在2020年对金融市场的干预以及资产负债表的扩张。

We've heard something similar from treasury secretary Scott Besson, specifically as it relates to the balance sheet and some of the interventions into financial markets that the Fed did back in 2020.

但我真觉得这在中行内部没什么分量。

But I'm not really sure it carries much weight inside the central bank.

他们觉得，这个资产负债表工具对让金融系统重新运转、确保危机后的经济复苏至关重要。

They argue that this balance sheet tool was absolutely crucial to getting the financial system functioning again and ensuring the economic recovery in the aftermath of the crisis.

所以这就是沃什对鲍威尔领导的美联储的总体批评。

So that's Warsh's broad critique of Powell's Fed.

正如你所说，这显然很合特朗普的胃口。

It obviously appeals, as you said, to Trump.

不过，沃什对美联储的看法和特朗普执意降息的主张之间是什么关系呢？

But how does Warsh's view of the Fed line up with Trump's determination to cut interest rates.

大家普遍有一种假设，认为特朗普绝不会任命一个不会降息的人来取代鲍威尔，因为降息是特朗普最看重的目标，而鲍威尔却没能满足他的期望。

There's an assumption out there that Trump would never replace Powell with anyone who wasn't going to cut the interest rate because that's in such a singular way what Trump wanted, and Powell refused to deliver.

那么沃什对此是怎么说的呢？

So what is Warsh saying about that?

沃什这个人其实挺有意思的，他一贯对降息持高度怀疑态度。

So what's really interesting about Warsh is that his whole history is someone who's been highly skeptical of lower rates.

他以前被贴上通胀鹰派的标签，对经济中的物价上涨压力非常担忧，一直主张美联储要时刻警惕通胀上升的风险。

And he's someone who was kind of branded as this inflation hawk, someone who was incredibly worried about price pressures in the economy and always wanted the Fed to keep in mind the risks of higher inflation.

因此，他通常的做法就是反对美联储进一步降息。

And what that typically resulted in is him pushing back on the need for the Fed to cut interest rates more than anything else.

这种立场他一直保持得很坚定，直到他开始被考虑作为鲍威尔的继任者。

And that's something that he had been consistent on basically up until the point that he started to be considered to become Powell's replacement.

然后呢？发生了什么？

And then what happened?

接着我们开始看到他的语气发生了变化。

And then we start to see a shift in tone from him.

他提出了各种各样的理由，说明为什么利率应该降低。

He comes up with all these different reasons why interest rates should be lower.

考虑到他过去的立场，这确实是个彻底的转变。

And this marked a real flip flop, given his past stance.

这让那些密切关注美联储的人开始产生疑问，沃什这种看似立场大转弯的背后究竟是怎么回事。

And it started to raise these questions among people who watched the Fed closely about what was behind this seeming flip flop from Warsh.

大家开始质疑这是否出于政治动机，也许这就是特朗普选择他作为接替鲍威尔的人选的原因。

People started to ask whether this was politically motivated, and perhaps this was why Trump chose him to be his nominee to replace Powell.

确实如此。

Right.

回到我们对话的开头部分，鲍威尔继续留在美联储理事会上，这会让沃什在未来几个月或几年里想要降息变得更加困难吗？难度有多大？

How much does Powell remaining on the board of governors, to bring us back to the first part of our conversation, how much harder is that gonna make it for Warsh to cut interest rates if he wants to, in fact, do that in the coming months or years?

我觉得，其实关键不在于鲍威尔是否留任，而是经济环境发生了根本性变化，不再需要降息了。

I think, actually, it's not necessarily so much about Powell staying here, but the economic environment completely shifting against the need for cuts Mhmm.

在过去几个月里。

In the last couple of months.

所以鲍威尔本人就肯定帮不上忙，因为他并不认为美联储有紧急降息的需要。

So Powell's presence in and of itself certainly does not help because he is someone who does not see an urgent need for the Fed to lower interest rates.

而且他在委员会里显然很有威望，所以他的看法很重要。

And this is someone who obviously is respected across the committee, so his views on that matter.

但大多数美联储官员认为，这个时候降息会在经济上造成灾难性后果。

But cutting rates at this time would be economically disastrous according to most officials at the Fed.

他们看到这场战争让通胀风险上升。

They see inflation risks rising because of this war.

我们根本不知道这什么时候能结束。

We have no idea when that's going to end.

油价已经涨上去了，这种情况下降息根本帮不上忙。

Oil prices are higher, and this is not an environment where lower interest rates are going to help whatsoever.

反而可能让情况变得更糟。

If anything, it's going to make things worse.

所以这让沃什陷入了一个极其尴尬的境地。

And so this puts Warsh in an incredibly uncomfortable position.

他作为主席的第一次会议将在六月举行，而没人指望他当时能推动降息。

His first meeting as chair is gonna be in June, and no one expects him to be able to push through interest rate cuts at that moment.

人们甚至不确定他是否会真的去推进这件事，因为这样做会直接损害他的公信力。

People don't even actually know if he is going to pursue that because doing so would undermine his credibility so directly.

既然当前的经济环境并不需要降息，他如果支持降息，看起来就会像是

Because the economic environment does not call for cuts, him supporting that would look like he was

总统政策的一条走狗。

The president's policy lapdog.

没错。

Exactly.

他在整个确认听证会上，基本上都在努力让议员们打消他是特朗普傀儡的想法。

And he spent his entire confirmation hearing basically trying to disabuse lawmakers of the notion that he was going to operate as Trump's sock puppet.

这是一个巨大的信誉问题，会一直笼罩着他，而他将在第一次会议上面临这个抉择。

This is this big credibility issue that's gonna loom large over him, and he's gonna be faced with this choice come that first meeting.

是他去树立自己的威信，冒着惹怒总统的风险，还是顺从总统的意思，结果在内部自己的威信反而受损。

Does he establish his own credibility and risk angering the president, or does he do what the president wants him to do, and then internally, his own credibility is undermined.

这听起来很有意思。

Fascinating.

那我们猜他会怎么做呢？

And what do we suspect he will do?

我觉得沃什已经明确表达过他对通胀零容忍的态度，所以我认为他不会轻易改变这一立场。

I think Warsh has made clear that he is someone who does not like inflation, that I just don't think that we're going to see him depart from that so dramatically.

没有哪位美联储主席希望被人记住的是，他在任期间把经济带上了歧途。

No Fed chair wants to be remembered as a Fed chair who led the economy down a bad path.

我认为，这会持续影响他的行为方式和最终的决策方向。

And that's gonna I think, going to be the thing that continues to kind of moderate how he behaves and what he ends up pursuing

关于利率的问题。

in terms of rates.

你描述的情况是，尽管凯文·沃什承诺要给美联储带来改变，但他最终还是会像鲍威尔那样对待利率，抵制总统要求降息的压力，结果就像鲍威尔一样，让总统对他大发雷霆，觉得他没把事办好。

What you're outlining is that Kevin Warsh, despite all his promises of delivering change at the Fed, is gonna find himself taking a Powell like position on interest rates, resisting the president's demands to cut them, and becoming Powell like in the fact that the president's gonna become furious with him that he's not getting the job done.

是的。

Yes.

没错。

Exactly.

对所有人来说，最大的问题其实是：特朗普会给他的美联储主席人选多长时间来站稳脚跟？

I think that the big question for everyone is just how much runway is Trump going to give his Fed chair pick?

他会给他几个月时间适应，建立自己的信誉，允许他不一定投票支持降息吗？

Is he going to give him a couple of months to settle in and establish his own credibility and give him the okay to not necessarily vote for lower interest rates?

还是说他一上任就直接开火，指责他没能兑现自己之前明确说过的、作为任命前提的条件？

Or is he going to come right out of the gate and attack him for not being able to deliver the thing that he has kind of made clear was the precondition for whoever he was going to give the job to.

我觉得这个问题最早到六月中旬就会爆发，那是沃什以主席身份主持的第一次会议。

And I think this is really gonna come to a head as early as mid June, which is the first meeting that Warsh is gonna preside over as chair.

到时候可能会出现沃什和鲍威尔一起投票维持利率不变的情况，这看起来可不像他之前说的那种“体制变革”。

And we could be in a situation where Warsh is voting alongside Powell to hold rates steady, and that's not gonna look like the regime change that he talked about.

这可能会让鲍威尔重新评估自己的策略。

And that would start to perhaps change Powell's calculation.

不是吧？

No?

关于继续留在委员会的事？

About staying on the board?

因为突然之间，他会知道接替他的人并不是来搞垮美联储、也不是来剥夺其独立性的。这会不会让他慢慢开始质疑自己是否还应该留在委员会里？

Because suddenly, he will have the knowledge that the person replacing him is not there to blow up the Fed and remove its independence, does that make him perhaps over time question staying on the board?

所以我觉得，他的决定远比这复杂得多。

So I think his decision is just bigger than that.

这从根本上说，取决于他对特朗普总统对美联储构成威胁的看法。

This is really fundamentally gonna come down to his perception of the threat posed by president Trump Right.

对整个机构的威胁。

On the institution.

最终关键在于，特朗普是停止攻击央行、让它正常运作，还是继续施压。

This is ultimately gonna be about whether or not Trump ceases his attacks against the central bank and allows it to do its job, or if he continues them.

如果特朗普转而针对沃什，或者继续攻击其他官员，

And if Trump decides to turn on Warsh or continues his attacks on other officials, all that's going to do

这只会进一步强化他的立场。

is reaffirm.

没错。

Exactly.

这反而会促使鲍威尔留下来。

And it's gonna keep motivating Powell to stay on.

到这个时候，他已经下定决心要留任了。

And at this point, he's made the hard decision already to stay.