一场不按常规规则进行的停摆

美与赢得网球大满贯、赋能社区或追踪南美洲腹地的美洲豹有何关联？大家好，我是伊莎贝拉·罗西里尼，欢迎回到《这不是美妆播客》第二季。在这里，我将揭示美如何贯穿我们生活的每个角落。请在您喜爱的播客平台收听欧莱雅集团出品的《这不是美妆播客》。

What does beauty have to do with winning a tennis grand slam or empowering communities or tracking jaguars through the wild heart of South America? Hi there. I'm Isabella Rossellini, and I'm back with season two of this is not a beauty podcast where I uncover stories that get to the heart of how beauty is woven through every facet of our lives. Listen to this is not a beauty podcast from L'Oreal Group on your favorite podcast platform.

我是《纽约时报》的迈克尔·巴尔比罗，这里是《每日播报》。通常情况下，政府停摆带来的剧痛会迫使两党代表美国人民尽快达成解决方案。但迄今为止，这次停摆的每个环节都异乎寻常。今天联邦停摆进入第17天，我的三位同事——白宫记者泰勒·佩奇、国会记者凯蒂·埃德蒙森和经济政策记者托尼·劳姆将解析此次停摆的特殊性。

From New York Times, I'm Michael Bilbaro. This is The Daily. Under normal circumstances, the profound pain of a government shutdown compels both parties to negotiate as quick a resolution as possible on behalf of the American people. But so far, nothing about this shutdown is normal. Today, as the federal shutdown enters its seventeenth day, three of my colleagues, White House reporter Tyler Pager, congressional reporter Katie Edmonson, and economic policy reporter Tony Raum explain what's making it feel so different.

今天是10月17日星期五。凯蒂、泰勒、托尼，欢迎来到圆桌讨论。

It's Friday, October 17. Katie, Tyler, Tony, welcome to the roundtable.

非常感谢，迈克尔。

Thanks so much, Michael.

很高兴见到你，迈克尔。

Good to see you, Michael.

最近怎么样？

How you doing?

我很好。只是忍不住要指出，快速念出这些名字让我感觉你们像一家人，比如...可能是个老虎家族。凯蒂泰勒托尼。凯蒂泰勒托尼。

Doing great. I just need to observe that saying those names in quick succession makes me feel like you're a family, like, maybe a family of tigers. Katie Tyler Tony. Katie Tyler Tony.

老虎托尼。

Tony the tiger.

哦，他们太棒了。欢迎

Oh, they're great. Welcome

来到圆桌会议特别停摆版。我认为这个话题需要专业报道经验，而随着讨论深入，我相信各位的专业领域都会展现出来。我想先做个简单观察：这次停摆真的很奇怪。是

to a special shutdown edition of the roundtable. It's a topic that I think benefits from having specialized reporting experience brought to the topic, and I think each of your specialties is gonna emerge as we go. I just wanna start with a simple observation. This is a real weird shutdown. Yes or

吗？是的。

no? Yes.

没错。绝对是的。毫无疑问。

Yeah. Absolutely. Yeah. Without a doubt.

那么我们来谈谈这次停摆的奇怪之处，泰勒，从你开始。

And let's talk about the ways in which it is a weird shutdown, Tyler, starting with you.

是的。我们从未见过哪届白宫或政府像现在这样，把联邦政府当作武器来对付反对党。

Yeah. We have never seen a White House or an administration weaponize the federal government against the opposing party the way in which we're seeing it happen right now.

没错。在政府停摆期间。我是说，显然，人们过去可能把特朗普甚至整个政府当作武器，但你现在说的是将停摆本身武器化。

Right. In a shutdown. I mean, clearly, people have weaponized perhaps Trump, especially government in the past, but you're saying weaponizing a shutdown.

是的。完全正确。他们正试图利用政府关门来追求政治目标，同时给民主党制造政治痛苦。

Yes. Absolutely. They are trying to use the closure of government to pursue their political goals and also inflict political pain on the Democratic Party.

嗯。这方面最生动的例子是什么？

Mhmm. And what's the most vivid example of that?

如果你登录任何联邦政府网站，比如财政部网站，你会看到该部门的声明，上面写着：‘激进左翼以鲁莽支出和阻挠主义为由，选择让美国政府停摆。’你还可以看看机场视频，全国有十几个机场拒绝播放国土安全部长克里斯蒂·诺姆的新视频，她在视频中抨击民主党导致政府停摆及可能引发的旅行混乱。

If you were to log on to any federal government website, you will be greeted by a message from that department or agency if you look on the Treasury Department website. It says right now, quote, the radical left has chosen to shut down the United States government in the name of reckless spending and obstructionism. You know, you can look at airport videos. There are more than a dozen airports around the country refusing to display a video of Kristi Noem, the homeland security secretary, who put together a new video blasting Democrats for the government shutdown and any travel disruptions that may result from it.

对。这些都只是信息武器化。对吧，托尼？实际上还有资金和岗位裁减的武器化。

Right. And those are just message weaponizations. Right, Tony? There's actually funding and job cut weaponizations as well.

没错。绝对如此。这不仅是言辞上的，而是试图给总统的政治敌人——在这里是民主党——造成实际伤害。他们已经在多个方面采取了行动。

Right. Absolutely. This is not just rhetorical. This is an attempt to inflict real pain on the president's political enemies, in this case, Democrats. And they have done this on a number of fronts.

他们已采取措施暂停或取消联邦政府此前批准给民主党领导的城市、州和国会选区的数十亿美元资金，并着手解雇数千名在总统认为‘属于民主党机构或项目’的联邦机构工作的员工。

They have taken steps to halt or cancel billions of dollars that the federal government had previously approved for cities and states and congressional districts led by Democratic leaders. They have taken steps to fire thousands of federal workers who serve at agencies that the president, at least, believes to be, quote, Democrat agencies or on Democrat programs.

在共和党总统领导下，一个机构如何能保持民主党属性？

How can an agency be Democratic under a Republican president?

是的，这是个很好的问题。我认为总统用'民主党机构'或'民主党项目'这个说法来概括两种不同的事物：一类是主要延续乔·拜登总统执政时期民主党扩大的领域，比如医疗、教育、住房和研究；但更广泛地说，本届白宫认为政府职能本身就具有民主属性。

Yeah. It's a great question. And I think the president has used this phrase, Democrat agencies or Democrat programs as shorthand to describe kind of two different things. The first is agencies and programs that largely track the areas that Democrats increased when president Joe Biden was in power, things like health and education and housing and research. But I think second, more broadly, this White House sees the function of government as inherently democratic.

他们将削减政府工作视为使政府更符合其理念——即华盛顿和官僚体系应该在人民生活和经济管理中减少干预。

And they see the cuts to the work of government as bringing government more in line with their vision that, you know, Washington and the bureaucracy should have less of a role in people's lives and in the management of the economy.

没错。凯蒂，我想讨论停摆中另一个非常奇怪的现象：尽管总统将其武器化用于党派斗争，但同时他又让政府和公众的许多领域免受传统停摆后果的影响。

Right. Katie, I wanna talk about another very weird element of the shutdown, which is the manner in which even as the president has weaponized it and used it to wield partisan warfare, he's simultaneously immunized many corners of the government and the public from the traditional consequences of a shutdown.

确实如此。迈克尔，最典型的例子就是总统采取多项措施确保美军人员——即便国会未通过任何支出法案——仍能如期领取薪水。

Well, that's right. And I think the biggest example, Michael, is that he has taken a number of actions to ensure that US military personnel, that the troops continue to get paid despite the fact that congress has not passed any spending bill to ensure that they would be able to get their paychecks as normally scheduled.

这笔钱他是从哪里调拨的？

Where did he find that money?

迈克尔，这确实是个好问题。我们自己也还在核实。政府最初向我们暗示军方有些原本用于武器研发的未动用资金？不过具体细节我们目前还不完全清楚。

Well, it's a great question, Michael. We're still trying to figure that out exactly ourselves. They initially told us the administration initially indicated that there were some unspent funds over at the military meant for research and development, probably of weaponry? Again, we don't, I think, exactly know.

托尼，总统在政府停摆期间能这样随意调动资金吗？比如从X项目拿钱去支付Y项目的人员费用？

Tony, can the president just move money around like that in a shutdown? Like, take money from pot x to pay people y?

嗯，我认为回答这个问题最好的方式是‘可能’。你知道，通常国会负责制定法律。它规定总统如何花钱，总统必须按照国会的指示使用资金。法律中有一项条款允许总统在国防部内部调动部分资金，但金额有限制，且资金用途受限。你不能直接从国土安全部拿一笔钱去支付能源部的某项开支。

Well, I think the best way to answer that question is maybe. You know, as a general rule, Congress writes laws. It tells the president how to spend money, and the president has to spend money on those things that Congress told him to spend the money on. There's a provision in law that allows the president to move some money around at the Department of Defense, but the amount is capped, and the use of that money is restricted. You can't just grab a bucket of money from the Department of Homeland Security and use that to, you know, pay for something at the Department of Energy.

因此，总统的举动才显得如此非同寻常甚至有些不合常规，因为他突破了未经国会批准就重新规划部分预算的权限边界。

And so that's what's made the president's actions so remarkable and in some ways unorthodox here, because he has pushed the limits of his ability to reprogram parts of the budget without congress.

对。凯蒂，是否可以认为几乎没有人有动力去起诉总统阻止他用这些资金支付军队工资，即使这些资金的来源违背了法律精神？

Right. And, Katie, is it right to think that very few people have any incentive to sue the president to stop him from paying troops with money even if the origin of that money violates the spirit of a law?

是的。我想不出有谁会愿意挑起这场争端，我们在国会山也看到了这种态度——包括纽约州的哈基姆·杰弗里斯在内的民主党领袖都表示乐见军队继续获得薪酬。

Yeah. I can't think of anyone who would want to take up that particular fight, and we saw that reflected up on Capitol Hill where you actually had Democratic leaders, including Hakim Jeffries of New York, say that he was happy to see the troops continue to get paid.

但私下里，当你与国会山及其他地方的相关人士交谈时，他们会告诉你他们非常担忧。因为尽管他们支持给军队发薪，但对政府有时在预算问题上采用的‘结果证明手段合理’论调感到不安。毕竟当下他挪用资金的用途是两党都支持的军队开支，但难保总统不会得寸进尺，将资金用于更争议的用途，甚至违背国会的意愿。

And privately, though, when you talk to some of these folks on the Hill and elsewhere, they will tell you that they are super concerned. Because even though they like paying the troops, they have this concern about this ends justify the means argument that the administration is sometimes making with the budget. Because for you know, right now, it's okay that he's using money for a purpose that both parties would like to see him spend it on with the troops. But nothing is to say that the president will continue to push that envelope in ways that would see him use the money for more controversial purposes, perhaps in defiance of what Congress has said.

明白了。凯蒂，总统还在哪些方面缓解了政府停摆通常会带来的痛点？

Got it. Katie, where else has the president been able to immunize the normal pain points of a shutdown?

好吧，我想快速回到关于确保军队薪资的话题。迈克尔，很多人以为当第一个截止日期到来，军队将错过定期发放的薪水时，这会迫使民主党屈服让步，他们会说‘好吧，我们自视为负责任的执政党，不能让这种事发生’，对吧？我们会投票支持共和党这项临时拨款法案以重启政府。而特朗普总统决定让自己免受军队欠薪的指责，某种程度上也把这种‘绝缘层’延伸到了民主党人身上——现在他们不会接到愤怒的士兵或其配偶质问‘我们的薪水在哪’的电话了。

Well, I do just wanna return sort of quickly back to the idea of keeping the troops paid. I think, Michael, a lot of people thought that this first deadline in which the troops were going to miss their regularly scheduled paycheck, they thought that that was going to cause Democrats to buckle and to cave and to say, alright, you know, we view ourselves as the responsible governing party, and so we can't let this happen. Right? We will vote for this Republican stopgap bill to reopen the government. And in deciding essentially that he wanted to insulate himself from the blame of the troops not getting paid, president Trump also sort of extended that insulation, I would say, to Democrats, right, who now will not be getting calls from angry troops, wives of troops, right, saying, where's our paycheck?

没错。他消除了各方要求总统结束政府停摆的紧迫感。

Right. He took away the president the urgency of ending the shutdown kind of on all sides.

是的，确实如此。这是关键点。当然，现在还有国防部之外大量联邦雇员同样被拖欠薪水，对吧？

Yeah. That's right. That was a big one. Now, obviously, there are a number of other federal employees outside of DOD who are missing those paychecks. Right?

我们不应忘记他们。但军队问题始终是最敏感的痛点之一。另外我们看到——这再次体现了总统的自我防护——他表示将采取类似措施确保执法部门继续领薪，据信包括FBI探员、ICE移民官员等。

And we should not forget about them. But the troops has always been sort of one of the biggest pain points. I mean, we're also seeing and again, this is more insulation, I would say, of the president himself. He said that he is going to take similar actions to ensure that law enforcement agents continue to get paid. We believe that is going to include FBI agents, ICE agents, potentially.

这又让民主党人即便不愤怒也极度不安，因为白宫正在选择性资助某些机构而放任其他部门停摆。

And that is an area now where you have Democrats, if not angry, certainly extremely uncomfortable, because you are seeing the White House pick and choose which agencies they want to continue to fund and which they don't.

我想稍作停留，谈谈那些不像军队能领到薪水的联邦雇员。究竟哪些人拿不到工资？哪些人被解雇？哪些机构的正常运转正遭受实质性影响？

Well, I wonder if we can linger for a second on the federal workers who are not being paid like the troops are. Who is not getting paid, who is being fired, and who is not getting their normal funding in a way that is genuinely impacting them.

是的。除少数例外，大部分政府部门仍处于停摆状态。这意味着住房、医疗、教育等职能机构中数十万文职雇员正被迫休假——他们失去工作、没有收入，而政府尚未采取任何预算调整措施来支付这些人的薪资。

Yeah. With a few exceptions, most of the government remains shut down. And so as a result of that, there are hundreds of thousands of civilian employees at agencies that touch on functions like housing and health and education who are furloughed right now. They're out of work. They're not receiving pay, and the administration has not taken any steps to reprogram the budget in a way for these individuals to be paid.

事实上，总统及其助手有时暗示，一旦政府停摆结束，这数十万被强制休假的员工中，部分人可能甚至无法自动获得欠薪。

In fact, the president and his aides at times have suggested that some of these hundreds of thousands of furloughed workers may not even be automatically entitled to backpay once the shutdown ends.

意思是，他们永远拿不到这份工作的报酬。

Meaning, they're permanently unpaid for this work.

有可能。我是说，实际上特朗普总统本人曾在美国史上最长停摆结束时签署了一项法律，该法律迄今为止确实保障了这些人的欠薪。但白宫试图以某种方式解读该法律，暗示他们不会提供自动补发工资。

Potentially. I mean, there is a law that, in fact, president Trump himself signed at the end of the longest shutdown in US history that So far. Guaranteed so far. Right? That guaranteed these individuals back pay, but the White House has tried to interpret that law in a way that may suggest that they won't provide that automatic back pay.

因此有数十万人的财务状况确实岌岌可危。这还不包括白宫现在表示考虑解雇的那些人。因为特朗普总统及其助手明确表示，在将停摆武器化的尝试中，他们还打算进行新一轮大规模裁员。上周他们已开始行动，宣布首批将裁撤约4000名来自八大主要机构的联邦雇员，整个裁撤过程约需60天。此事已成为诉讼焦点。

So there are hundreds of thousands of people who really do have their finances at risk here. And that's on top of those that the White House has now said it's potentially looking to fire. Because president Trump and his aides have made very clear that in their attempts to weaponize this shutdown, they also want to conduct another round of mass layoffs. And they began to take the steps to do that last week when they announced an initial batch of about 4,000 federal workers across eight major agencies that they were going to cut from government in a process that will take about sixty days. That has been the subject of litigation.

虽然联邦法官最近阻止了政府实施这些裁员，但总统及其助手明确表示不会让步，他们确实想要精简政府机构。如果这些人最终被解雇，那将是雪上加霜的经济打击。

A federal judge recently blocked the administration from proceeding with those layoffs, but the president and his aides have made clear that they're not backing down, and they really do want to cut government. And so if those people are in fact laid off, that's just another financial blow on top of what they're already experiencing.

泰勒，白宫在你们报道中如何描述其策略——本质上是将停摆武器化以理论上打击民主党人？当我想到他们要从多个机构（包括国土安全部）裁撤4000人时，绝对不可能将负面影响局限在某个党派身上。

Tyler, how does the White House your beat, how does it talk about its strategy during this shutdown of essentially weaponizing the shutdown to, in theory, hurt Democrats. I have to imagine that when you're laying off 4,000 people from a bunch of agencies, and I think one of them was Homeland Security, there's absolutely no way you can contain the negative impacts to one party.

确实。白宫对此采取非常强硬的立场，声称重启政府的责任在民主党，之后他们才愿意就医疗补贴问题进行谈判——而这正是民主党拒绝重启政府的核心原因。整体来看，民调结果混乱且分歧明显，最新调查显示两党都因政府持续停摆而受到指责。

Yeah. Look. The White House is taking a very hardline stance on this, and they are saying that it's up to the Democrats to reopen the government, and then they are willing to negotiate over health care subsidies, which is at the core of why Democrats are not reopening the government. Right. And I think, you know, the big picture is the polling on this is muddled and somewhat mixed with, you know, the latest poll showing that both Democrats and Republicans are receiving blame for keeping the government closed.

当这些新民意调查结果出炉时，我正在白宫，并将其展示给一位白宫高级官员，他告诉我这对白宫来说是个好消息。为什么？因为从历史上看，政府停摆时总统通常会承担大部分责任和政治反弹，因为美国人认为总统及其政党有责任保持政府运转。

When some of this new polling came out, I was at the White House and showed it to a senior White House official who told me that that was good news for the White House. Why? Because historically, the president receives most of the blame for a government shutdown and the political blowback because Americans assume that it's in control of the president and his party to keep the government open.

白宫是否有这样一种感觉，即如果空中交通管制员拿不到工资、停止上班，导致全国空中交通突然陷入混乱，这种局面还能持续吗？或者当今年年底医疗保险费用上涨时——这正是民主党所指望发生的，也是他们关闭政府的原因，因为总统和共和党人不愿与他们合作恢复那些补贴。这是他们的想法吗？还是他们意识到政治风向可能从五五开转向对总统更为不利的局面？

Is there a sense in the White House that that can last if, for example, air traffic controllers don't get paid, stop showing up at work, and suddenly air traffic is a nightmare across the country. Or when health care premiums are going up at the end of this year, which is what Democrats are banking on happening, and it's why they shut the government down because president and Republicans won't work with them to reestablish those subsidies. Is that their thinking? Or do they recognize that the politics could shift from fifty fifty back to something much more damaging for the president?

迈克尔，这是个非常好的问题。这次政府停摆的另一个独特之处在于国会和白宫内部缺乏推动达成协议的动力。在过去的停摆中，我们会看到总统前往国会山或在白宫与国会领导人举行会议，试图敲定妥协方案或协议。而这次总统只与国会民主党和共和党高层举行了一次会议，除此之外几乎没有其他接触。

Michael, it's a really good question. And one of the other unique features about this shutdown is the lack of energy within congress and in the White House to try to get a deal done. In past shutdowns, we would see the president going to Capitol Hill or holding meetings with congressional leadership in the White House trying to hammer out a compromise or a deal. The president held one meeting with top Democrats and Republicans from Capitol Hill. And beyond that, he's had very little engagement.

因此，过去那种紧张忙碌的氛围已被总统对其他议题的关注所取代——中东和平协议、预计下周的亚洲之行、委内瑞拉问题、即将宣布的试管婴儿政策。总统现在更感兴趣谈论和关注的事情太多了，以至于政府停摆甚至不是白宫当前最关注的问题。

And so this sort of frenzied energy you would see has been replaced by the president's focus on other issues, on the Middle East peace deal. He's expected to go to Asia next week. He's talking about Venezuela. He's making an announcement about IVF. There's just so many other things the president is more interested in in talking about and focusing on that the shutdown is not even the top issue animating the White House at this point.

但泰勒你还记得吗？我打赌你一定记得。凯蒂和托尼也请随时加入讨论。大约在停摆五六天后有过一个短暂时刻，总统（我记得是在椭圆形办公室）对着镜头说，我认为我们应该与民主党谈判以达成一个好的解决方案。而所谓好的解决方案，他的意思是我们应该和他们讨论医疗保健问题。

But do you remember, Tyler? And I bet you do. And and Katie and Tony, feel free to weigh in on this. There was a brief moment about five or six days into the shutdown where the president, I believe in the Oval Office, looks at the cameras and says, I think we should probably negotiate with the Democrats to come up with some good solution. And by good solution, I mean, we should be talking to him about health care.

当时感觉像是：哦，总统意识到国家医疗保健状况可能对他和他的政党不利，他想达成协议。但之后这事就再没下文了，就好像有人对他说这是个非常糟糕的主意。

And it was like, oh, the president recognizes that the health care in the country is potentially bad for him, bad for his party. He wants to do a deal. And then it never happened again. As if, like, someone had said to him, that's a very bad idea.

是的。我的感觉是国会山的共和党人认为这不是正确的信息。共和党人一直坚决主张先重启政府再谈判医疗保健问题，而特朗普基本上为谈判敞开大门的做法践踏了这一立场。这不符合共和党的立场。这在本届政府中实属罕见——特朗普被迫根据国会反馈调整了自己的表态方向。

Yeah. I mean, I the sense is that Republicans on Capitol Hill didn't think that was the right message. Republicans have been very adamant that they want to reopen the government and then negotiate on health care, and Trump trampled over that messaging by basically opening the door to negotiations. And that is not the stance of the Republican Party. And it was really a rare moment in this presidency where Trump was forced to sort of redirect his messaging based on feedback from Congress.

嗯。

Mhmm.

但问题是，迈克尔，随着停摆持续拖延，他愿意坚持多久。

But the question, Michael, is how long he's willing to do that as this shutdown continues to drag on.

好的。那么，待会儿回来时，凯蒂，我想问问你从国会山的角度怎么看这一切，国会是否如泰勒所说在这次停摆中主导议程，还是实际上是总统在主导。

Okay. Well, when we come back, I wanna, Katie, ask you what this all looks like from the Hill, from Congress, and whether you think Tyler's right that Congress is driving the agenda in this shutdown or whether it's really the president.

我们马上回来。

So we'll be right back.

我是《连环》节目的主持人莎拉·柯尼希。我想向大家介绍我们的新节目《预防主义者》，由黛安·尼瑞主持。几年前，黛安收到一个关于宾夕法尼亚州东部发生怪事的线索。有父母声称他们带孩子去医院就医，结果被迫独自离开。

This is Sarah Koenig, host of Serial. I wanna tell you about our new show. It's called The Preventionist, and it's hosted by Diane Neary. A couple years ago, Diane got a tip about something strange happening in Eastern Pennsylvania. Parents were claiming they'd walked into a hospital to get medical care for their children and then were forced to leave without them.

这些家庭将矛头指向一家医院网络。其中许多人指认同一位儿科医生。那么这位医生是谁？为什么这些人突然失去了孩子的监护权？来自《纽约时报》的Serial Productions制作，《预防主义者》讲述了一位医生和儿科医学中一个强势专科崛起的故事。

The families were blaming this one hospital network. And many of them pointed to a single pediatrician. So who was this doctor? And why were all these people suddenly losing custody of their kids? From serial productions in The New York Times, it's The Preventionist, the story of a doctor and the rise of a powerful specialty inside pediatric medicine.

在任意播客平台均可收听。符合条件的Time订阅用户现在就能在Apple Podcasts和Spotify上收听节目。快去订阅吧。或于10月30日起在各平台收听。

Listen wherever you get your podcasts. Eligible Time subscribers can listen to the show right now on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. So head there to subscribe. Or listen anywhere October 30.

凯蒂，就在休息前，还有泰勒，请告诉我我是否准确传达了你的意思。你提到国会共和党人在某种程度上决定着政府停摆将持续多久以及以何种条件结束。而特朗普似乎则在很大程度上决定着谁将承受停摆的痛苦。泰勒，如果我理解有误请纠正。我想了解在国会山，共和党与民主党在政府重开问题上完全僵持不下，谁最有可能、或者说在什么情况下会率先让步放弃立场，让政府重新运转起来？

Katie, right before the break and, Tyler, please tell me if I'm correctly channeling you. You suggested that congressional Republicans, to a degree, are dictating how long will the shutdown go on and under what terms will it end. Even as Trump, it seems, is very much dictating who experiences the pain of the shutdown. Again, Tyler, correct me if I'm wrong. I wanna understand then on Capitol Hill, where Republicans and Democrats are at complete loggerheads over the idea of reopening the government, who is likeliest, potentially, to lower their guard and abandon their position here and bring the government back to life?

迈克尔，我认为当前时刻的有趣之处在于，在特朗普第二任期内，每次他要求国会做某事，他们都照做了。因此，如果特朗普在任何时候决定受够了并希望结束停摆，他已展现出说服共和党跟从的能力。而迄今为止，他基本与停摆保持距离——他谴责民主党导致政府关门，也表态哪些员工应像军队一样获得薪酬，但并未真正介入国会山的斗争。

Well, Michael, I think what is interesting about this moment is that every time in Trump's second term that he's wanted Congress to do something, they've done it. And so if Trump decides at any given point that he's had enough and he wants the shutdown to end, he has shown the ability to persuade the Republican Party to fall in line. And so far, he has largely kept an arm's length away from the shutdown. He has railed against Democrats for keeping the government closed, and he has weighed in on which workers should get paid like the troops, but he has not really dived into the fight going on on Capitol Hill.

好的。凯蒂，既然泰勒刚分析了共和党方面，你能谈谈民主党人在国会山如何看待当前局势吗？包括民调数据、针对他们的政治武器化操作，以及他们认为让这一切值得的医保问题。

Okay. Katie, since Tyler just talked about the Republican side of this, can you talk about how the Democrats on Capitol Hill are seeing this moment, seeing the polling, seeing the weaponization that's directed at them, and seeing the question of health care that they think makes this all worthwhile.

他们认为通过将停摆焦点集中在医保上找到了制胜议题。他们押注随着民众不断收到医保费用上涨的通知信，公众支持率只会持续攀升。即便在最坏情况下——如果《平价医疗法案》补贴未能延期——这也将成为中期选举的现成议题。但迈克尔，我认为国会僵局部分源于民主党人对政府武器化停摆方式的真实愤怒。在政府实际停摆前，预算主管曾暗示将利用停摆加速联邦雇员裁员计划。

Well, they think that they have found a winning issue in centering the shutdown around health care. Their bet is that as people continue to get letters in the mail informing them how much their health care premiums are going to go up, that they are only going to get more and more public support. And that even, I think, in a worst case scenario for them, if the ACA subsidies are not extended, then they have a ripe issue to run on in the midterms. But I think, Michael, part of what is fueling the impasse on the hill is real anger from Democrats over the way that the administration is weaponizing this shutdown. In the days before the government actually shut down Russ' vote, the budget director teased the idea that they would use a shutdown to accelerate their campaign of mass layoffs of federal workers.

白宫的算计是这能震慑部分中间派民主党人，尤其是那些所在州有大量联邦雇员的议员——比如弗吉尼亚州的马克·华纳和蒂姆·凯恩，这两位以善于打破僵局著称的中间派。他们原以为能策反几位这样的民主党人，使其与共和党共同维持政府开放（或现在重开）。若果真如此算计，这已彻底适得其反。对吧？

And I think the calculation from the White House was that that was going to cow a number of centrist Democrats, maybe those in particular who have large numbers of federal workers in their states. I'm thinking of people like Mark Warner of Virginia, Tim Cain of Virginia, two pretty centrist members who sort of pride themselves on negotiating through gridlock. I think the calculation was that maybe the White House would be able to peel off a handful of Democrats like those men and get them to join Republicans in keeping the government open or in this case now reopening the government. And if that was the calculation, it has completely backfired. Right?

这两位通常非常温和的议员——我跟踪报道他们七年了——现在怒不可遏。他们的联邦雇员选民在超市拦住他们说：'年初我还收到狗狗币邮件，被要求汇报本周五件事。现在直接被裁员。这届政府失控了，请继续抗争。'

These are two normally pretty affable men having covered them for seven years now. And they are furious and they have constituents who are federal workers who have been coming up to them in the grocery stores telling them, you know, look, I started the year getting the Doge email, being asked to report five things I did this week. Now I'm laid off. This administration is out of control. Keep up the fight.

哇，这就是他们现在收到的信息。

Wow. That is the message they are getting now.

不让政府重新运作以便我能领到薪水。继续抗争吧。

Not bring the government back so I can get paid. Keep up the fight.

没错。听民主党人这么说，他们是在说，如果你声称要利用这次停摆来解雇联邦雇员，其实你在停摆前就已经这么做了。实际上早在三月份，当我作为民主党人投票支持政府继续运作时，你们就已经这么干了。那我现在凭什么要投票支持政府重新开门呢？

Well, that's right. And to hear these Democrats tell it, they're saying, look, if you're going to say that you're using this shutdown to lay off federal workers, well, you were already doing that before the shutdown happened. You actually already did that back in March when I, as a Democrat, voted to keep the government open. So why should I vote to reopen the government now?

我想补充凯蒂的观点。这是特朗普第二任期内民主党首次在政府运作问题上获得筹码。他们在参众两院都处于少数党地位，而民主党基本盘中有很大一部分人一直鼓动民主党以某种方式对抗特朗普。上次查克·舒默帮助共和党维持政府运作时，他遭到了强烈反对。现在民主党内部有股力量在施压领导人采取行动，真正站出来对抗特朗普，因为共和党需要他们中部分人的支持才能重启政府。

And I think just to add on to Katie's point Yeah. This is one of the first moments in Trump's second term where Democrats have had any leverage as it relates to the functioning of government. They are in the minority in both the Senate and the House, and a big part of the Democratic base has been agitating for Democrats to try to stand up in some way to Donald Trump. The last time Chuck Schumer helped Republicans keep the government open, there was serious backlash to him, And there is this energy in the Democratic Party to try to pressure their leaders to do something, to really stand up to Trump because Republicans need a handful of them to go along with anything to reopen the government.

是的。我认为凯蒂完全正确，这确实鼓舞了民主党继续斗争，尽管他们的州和选区在某些方面遭受了总统利用停摆造成的严重削减。但我认为更深层原因是他们担忧总统以无视国会拨款决议的方式，擅自重组预算的扩权行为。总统寻求削减的许多领域——特别是停摆期间试图实施的裁员——与他2026年预算提案中的内容如出一辙。他想要削减住房、卫生、能源和教育等机构的资金，这些正是他在停摆期间通过法院现已叫停的裁员行动，以及他宣称正在推进并可能在本周晚些时候公布的所谓'永久性削减'所针对的项目。

Yeah. I think Katie is absolutely right that this is emboldening Democrats to keep fighting, even though they have seen pretty staggering cuts in some cases to their states and districts as the president has weaponized this shutdown. But I I think the reason that's happening is because they have this deeper worry about the ways in which the president has asserted his power to rearrange the budget and to do so in a way that disregards what congress may say about what he must spend or what he must not spend. Many of the areas that the president has looked to cut and the layoffs that he has looked to make, particularly during the shutdown, track with the things that he proposed to do as part of his 2026 budget. He wanted to cut agencies like housing and health and energy and education, which are the very programs that he has targeted during the shutdown with the layoffs that the court has now blocked and with the other sorts of, quote, permanent cuts that he has said he is pursuing and could potentially put out later this week.

好的。但我要指出一点：你刚才说民主党支持停摆的原因是他们将其视为对特朗普领导下日益膨胀、越权行事的行政分支的抵抗。但换个角度想，停摆是否反而让行政分支有机会将整个联邦预算视为其专属领地，而无须遵循立法分支的拨款决议？比如支付军饷的资金实际上是从某个研究基金里挪用的。

Okay. But let me point something out. You said in that answer that a reason why the Democrats believe in this shutdown is because they see it as an act of resistance to an executive branch under Trump that's getting bigger and stronger and doing things that congress is supposed to do. And yet, is it right to think that the shutdown is giving the administration a chance to basically experiment with treating the entire federal budget as the province of the executive branch rather than needing to follow the direction of the legislative branch, which appropriated and passed the money. I'm thinking about the fact that that money to pay the troops was basically borrowed from some research fund.

对吧？我是说，现在整个政府系统都在发生这类事情吗？行政分支是否在谁领薪水、谁被停薪、谁因资金切断受罚这些问题上，俨然扮演着国会的角色？

Right? I mean, is that kind of stuff happening throughout the government right now? Is the executive branch basically acting like congress when it comes to who's getting paid, who's not getting paid, who's being punished by being defunded?

我认为这届政府一直在试探这种边界，而本次停摆只是他们最新的一次实践舞台。总统本人也多次将停摆称为'改革预算的前所未有机会'。某种程度上，白宫确实将此视为双赢——他们虽不希望政府停摆，但会趁停摆期间榨取最大利益。

I think that this administration is always trying to test that and that this shutdown has just been the latest stage where they're trying to act that out. And I think the president himself has said this. I mean, on numerous occasions, he has described the shutdown as a, quote, unprecedented opportunity to make changes to the budget. Because I think on some level, the White House does see this as a little bit of a win win. Like, I don't think that they want the government to be shut down, but I think that they're going to extract the greatest number of benefits that they can out of it while the government is shut down.

他们将借助像拉斯·沃格特这样的人来实现这一目标，他负责管理预算办公室，并长期宣扬总统应拥有广泛权力来设定国家支出水平并违抗国会。因此，至少在总统看来，这正是一个绝佳机会，可以进一步推进从立法者手中夺取国家预算控制权的进程。

And they're going to do that with the help of folks like Russ Vogt, who runs the Office of Management and Budget and has long preached this idea that the president should have expansive power to set the nation's spending levels and to defy Congress. So this has just been, at least in the eyes of the president, a great opportunity to push further down this road of taking power over the nation's budget from lawmakers.

凯蒂，对此有何看法？当这次政府停摆结束时，是否会出现权力从国会向总统的根本性重新平衡？

Katie, do say to that? When this shutdown is over, is there a fundamental rebalancing of power away from congress to the president?

迈克尔，我认为这种情况在停摆前就已经发生了。我认为停摆更像是往常规拨款这个伤口上又捅了一刀。我去采访了一位参议院共和党人，他是拨款委员会主席。我问他，目前民主党和你们党派之间、民主党和白宫之间存在严重的信任赤字。你们能否采取任何措施来提供某种保证，即未来当国会山上的共和党人和民主党人达成某种拨款协议时，白宫不会单方面试图破坏它？

Michael, I think that had already happened before the shutdown. I think the shutdown has sort of twisted the knife even more in sort of this wound in regular appropriations, if you will. I mean, look, I went and talked to a senate Republican who is on the appropriations committee, is a chairman. And I asked him, look, there's a real trust deficit right now between Democrats and your party, between Democrats and the White House. Is there anything that you can do to try to give some sort of assurance that in the future, when Republicans and Democrats on the hill come to some sort of appropes deal, that the White House is not going to unilaterally try to undermine it?

能采取什么措施？他的回应是，他认为总统不会批准任何这些保障措施，因此在国会这里我们无法获得足够的票数支持。所以我们只能想办法应对这种情况。

What can be done? And his response was, well, I don't think the president would approve any of those safeguards, and so we're not gonna have the votes for it here on the Hill. So we're just gonna have to work through that.

换句话说，总统永远不会同意从根本上尊重国会的传统角色。

In other words, the president will never agree to essentially respect the traditional role of congress.

没错。而听到拨款委员会成员说出这样的话，确实发人深省。

Exactly. And that was a sobering thing to hear from someone who sits on the Appropriations Committee.

那么这一切将如何结束，何时会结束？鉴于我们已经明确这次停摆的异常性以及当前结束停摆的复杂阻力，我想请你们每位都简要给出一个预测——希望这个预测不会太不负责任？

So how does this come to an end, and when does it come to an end? I wonder if each of you can just briefly offer us what I hope is not an irresponsible prediction given how weird this shutdown is as we've firmly established and the complex disincentives to end it right now?

我要提出两点。第一，正如迈克尔你之前提到的，如果我们开始看到政府停摆对普通美国民众日常生活产生实际影响——比如航班延误、空管人员缺勤，当这些直接影响真正显现时。我认为第二点是，当特朗普总统真正介入时。这段时间他一直专注于其他事务。

I'll posit two things. One is, Michael, as you alluded to earlier, if we start to see real impacts on Americans' daily experience beyond federal workers. If planes are being delayed, air traffic controllers are not showing up to work, if we really start to see acute impacts from the continued shutdown. I think his second thing is when and if president Trump really does get engaged. He has focused on other things during this period.

他虽然提及并讨论过政府停摆，但并未将其作为优先解决事项。白宫坚信停摆对民主党的伤害远大于对总统及其政党。如果形势逆转，特朗普决定彻底结束这场僵局，我认为那将是关键转折点。

He's referenced the shutdown and discussed the shutdown, but he has not made it a priority of his to end. The White House feels confident that the shutdown is more harmful to Democrats than it is to the president and his political party. If the fortune changes there and Trump decides he wants to end this once and for all, I think that will be a key turning point.

嗯。托尼，你怎么看？

Mhmm. What do you say, Tony?

我完全赞同泰勒关于停摆影响的观点。在我们开始讨论前，我刚与几位负责食品券项目的州政府官员交谈过。这个为低收入美国人提供营养补助的联邦项目，由于停摆持续时间过长，部分地区已暂停新福利申请，他们甚至担心十一月的福利金发放。这些影响尚未体现在统计数据中。

I would just echo exactly what Tyler said specifically on the impacts of the shutdown. You know, before we all sat down here, I was talking to some state officials who administer the program called food stamps. It's federal nutrition assistance for low income Americans. And they told me that because of the shutdown, because of how long it had gone, in some cases, they've had to stop accepting applications for new benefits, and they're worried about being able to pay benefits in the month of November. That's not something that's shown up in the data.

对吧？目前还没直接冲击民众的钱包，但很快就会发生。当这类案例在经济各领域陆续出现，叠加当前本就脆弱的美国经济所受的广泛冲击，我认为这类情况可能会促使谈判各方认真考虑达成协议——尽管白宫在联邦支出问题上常有违约前科。

Right? It has not hit Americans' pocketbooks just yet, but it will. It'll happen soon. And I think as you start to see cases like that throughout the economy, on top of the broader hits to The US economy at a moment where things are pretty fragile, I think that's the kind of thing that might start to get folks in the room and actually trying to make a deal against the backdrop of a White House that hasn't always stuck to the deal when it comes to federal spending.

嗯。凯蒂，最后由你总结。

Mhmm. And Katie, let's end with you.

是的。我认为这取决于协议的具体内容。民主党正押注特朗普总统的交易本能——他既想达成协议，又想保护其政党免受中期选举中医疗保健议题的攻击广告伤害。他们深信这种本能会促使特朗普总统参与谈判并达成某种协议。

Yeah. I think that's right. I mean, I think it depends on what the deal looks like. Democrats are banking on president Trump's instinct of wanting to make a deal, wanting to protect his party from devastating health care attack ads in the midterms. They're really counting on that instinct kicking in and on president Trump engaging and negotiating some kind of deal with them.

我认为这是一个潜在的退出方案。我认为还有另一个潜在的退出方案，虽然目前对民主党人来说难以接受，但未来他们可能会同意在政府重新开门的同时，就《平价医疗法案》补贴进行投票——尽管他们明知会失败。然后他们就可以说，我们为此投了票，我们努力过了，并以此作为中期选举的竞选筹码。

I think that's one potential off ramp. I think there's another potential off ramp, which I think is not palatable to Democrats at this moment in time, but could be down the road in which they agree to reopen government at the same time they get a vote on the ACA subsidies that they know will fail. And then they can say, we voted for this, we tried to do this, and then campaign on that in the midterms.

这就是我们所说的半块面包（聊胜于无）。

That's what we call half a loaf.

没错。正因如此，我认为许多民主党人觉得这个选项目前乃至短期内都难以接受。特别是如果我们开始看到一些痛苦的影响显现时，情况可能会有所改变。但坦白说，我认为这里有几个相当明显的退出方案。

Yeah. Exactly. And that's why I think a lot of Democrats think that that would be an unpalatable option right now down the road. Particularly, if we start to see some of those painful impacts kick in, I think that could maybe change. But I do think there are a number of off ramps here that are quite obvious, frankly.

只是目前没人愿意采用这些方案。

And it's just that no one is interested in taking them right now.

这是否几乎意味着这将成为美国历史上最长的政府停摆，甚至可能持续到...

And does that almost by definition mean that this is gonna be the longest shutdown in US history and that it could even go through the end of the

我觉得很多人把感恩节视为潜在转折点，因为涉及航空交通管制员等旅行问题。但目前还不好说。

I mean, think a lot of people view Thanksgiving as being a potential inflection point because of travel, the air traffic controllers. But right now, I don't know.

另外，我认为关键在于政府不太可能继续通过调动资金来维持项目运行和支付军队工资。虽然这个痛点目前被暂时缓解了，但白宫官员私下向我承认这不是长久之计。

And also, I think one of the things is the administration is unlikely to be able to continue to move funds around to keep programs open and troops paid. And so that pain point has been nullified for the time being, but White House officials have privately conceded to me that is not a long term solution. And so

当那用完的时候。

When that runs out.

当那用完的时候。

When that runs out.

那大概会是什么时候？

And when might that be?

我认为这还不明确。一些官员向我提出，他们可以维持到月底。但考虑到他们采取的这种独特且非传统的方式，以及缺乏透明度，我们甚至无法准确知道他们现在是如何找到资金来支付的。很难精确预测他们还能坚持多久。但这并非长久之计，所以一旦资金耗尽，那也可能成为一个转折点。

I think that's unclear. Some officials have posited to me that they could do it through the end of the month. But given the sort of unique and nontraditional ways they've been doing it and the lack of transparency, we don't even precisely know exactly how the money's being found to pay them right now. It's hard to exactly predict how much longer they're able to do this. But it's not a forever solution, and so should that run out, that could be a turning point as well.

好的。泰勒、托尼、基蒂，就像我说的，你们听起来像老虎一家。非常感谢。我们很感激。

Alright. Well, Tyler, Tony, Kitty, like I said, you sound like a family of tigers. Thank you very much. We appreciate it.

非常感谢，迈克尔。

Thanks so much, Michael.

谢谢，迈克尔。谢谢。

Thanks, Michael. Thanks.

周四晚间，《纽约时报》报道了特朗普总统在政府停摆期间的最新非常规预算操作。他计划动用7月通过的减税法案中批准的资金来支付ICE官员薪资，此举将绕过国会——因为在10月1日政府停摆前，国会并未批准ICE的新支出。

On Thursday night, The Times reported on president Trump's latest unusual budget maneuver during the shutdown. He now plans to pay ICE officers by drawing from funds approved in a tax cut bill passed in July. That would circumvent Congress, which did not approve new spending for ICE before the government shut down on October 1.

我们稍后回来。

We'll be right back.

我是海伦·库珀，《纽约时报》负责报道美国军事事务的记者。此刻我正坐在五角大楼外停车场的车里。多年来我在大楼内一直有个带办公桌的隔间，但特朗普政府收回了这个空间。当权者总是给记者制造困难。

I'm Helene Cooper. I cover the US military for The New York Times. So I'm sitting in my car in a parking lot outside the Pentagon. I had a cubicle with a desk inside the building for years, but the Trump administration has taken that away. People in power have always made it difficult for journalists.

过去这从未阻止过我们，现在也不会。我将继续努力为你们获取真相。如果没有《纽约时报》的订阅用户，这项工作就无法持续。

It hasn't stopped us in the past. It's not gonna stop us now. I will keep working to get you the facts. This work doesn't happen without subscribers to The New York Times.

以下是今日其他重要新闻：负责监督五角大楼在加勒比海地区对涉嫌运毒船只升级打击行动的军事指挥官（该行动已造成至少27人死亡）计划辞职。《纽约时报》报道称，指挥官阿尔文·哈尔西对击毙涉嫌毒贩的行动表示担忧。多位法律专家认为针对这些涉嫌毒贩的空袭缺乏法律依据。此外，马里兰州大陪审团周四以处理机密材料不当为由起诉前国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿。

Here's what else you need to know today. The military commander overseeing the Pentagon's escalating attacks against alleged drug carrying boats in The Caribbean, which have so far killed at least 27 people, now plans to resign. The Times reports that the commander, Alvin Halsey, has raised concerns about killing the alleged drug traffickers. Many legal experts say that the airstrikes carried out against those alleged traffickers have no legal justification. And on Thursday, a grand jury in Maryland indicted former national security adviser John Bolton over his handling of classified materials.

博尔顿自离开特朗普政府后成为直言不讳的批评者，他是继前FBI局长詹姆斯·科米和纽约总检察长莱蒂西亚·詹姆斯之后，又一位在特朗普第二任期被针对的政敌。但与科米和詹姆斯案不同，对博尔顿的调查始于拜登总统任期，且似乎遵循了司法部的正常程序。本期节目由埃里克·克鲁普克、香农·林和斯特拉·谭制作，克里斯·哈克斯尔和佩奇·考威特编辑，配乐由玛丽安·洛萨诺和索菲亚·兰德曼原创，艾丽莎·莫克斯利负责技术制作。以上就是本期《每日》的全部内容。

Bolton, an outspoken Trump critic since leaving his administration, is the latest Trump enemy to be targeted in the second term after former FBI director James Comey and New York attorney general Letitia James. But unlike the Comey and James cases, the investigation into Bolton began during the Biden presidency and appeared to follow normal procedures within the justice department. Today's episode was produced by Eric Krupke, Shannon Lin, and Stella Tan. It was edited by Chris Haxle and Paige Cowet, contains original music by Marian Lozano and Sofia Landman, and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. That's it for The Daily.

我是迈克尔·比尔巴戈，周一见。

I'm Michael Bilbargo. See you on Monday.