拜登如何失去美国人对移民政策的信任

嗨。

Hi.

我是索拉娜·派恩。

I'm Solana Pine.

我是《纽约时报》的视频总监。

I'm the director of video at The New York Times.

多年来，我的团队制作的视频让你更贴近重大新闻时刻，这些由《纽约时报》记者制作的视频，凭借专业知识帮助你理解正在发生的事情。

For years, my team has made videos that bring you closer to big news moments, videos by Times journalists that have the expertise to help you understand what's going on.

现在我们将这些视频带到《纽约时报》应用的'观看'标签页中。

Now we're bringing those videos to you in the watch tab in The New York Times app.

这是一个专属视频流，在这里你知道可以信任所看到的内容。

It's a dedicated video feed where you know you can trust what you're seeing.

那里的所有视频对任何人都是免费观看的。

All the videos there are free for anyone to watch.

你不需要是订阅用户。

You don't have to be a subscriber.

下载纽约时报应用程序开始观看。

Download The New York Times app to start watching.

我是纽约时报的娜塔莉·基特罗夫。

From the New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitroef.

这里是《每日新闻》。

This is The Daily.

上周末，全球两端发生了两起致命枪击事件。

Over the weekend, there were two deadly shootings on opposite sides of the globe.

在澳大利亚，周日至少有15人在悉尼一处海滩庆祝光明节开始时遭两名枪手扫射身亡。

In Australia, at least 15 people were killed on Sunday when two gunmen fired on a crowd that was celebrating the start of Hanukkah on a beach in Sydney.

这是针对澳大利亚犹太人的针对性袭击，发生在光明节首日本应欢乐的日子。

This is a targeted attack on Jewish Australians on the first day of Hanukkah, which should be a day of joy.

当局将此次枪击事件定性为恐怖主义行为，并表示是由一对父子实施的。

The authorities described the shooting as an act of terrorism and said it was carried out by a father and son.

对澳大利亚犹太人的攻击就是对全体澳大利亚人的攻击。

An attack on Jewish Australians is an attack on every Australian.

这是澳大利亚一系列反犹袭击事件中的最新一起。

And it was the latest in a series of anti Semitic attacks across Australia.

周六枪击事件发生后的几小时内，多位犹太社区领袖表示，他们关于暴力升级的警告一直被忽视。

And in the hours after Saturday's shooting, several Jewish leaders said their warnings about escalating violence had been ignored.

遇难者中包括一位在大屠杀中幸存的老者，他为保护妻子而中弹身亡，还有一位活动组织者拉比。

Among the victims was a Holocaust survivor who died shielding his wife from gunfire and a rabbi who organized the event.

与此同时，普罗维登斯市和罗德岛州的人们曾祈祷这一天永远不会到来。

Meanwhile Today is a day that the city of Providence and the state of Rhode Island prayed would never come.

在罗德岛州普罗维登斯市，一名枪手周六闯入布朗大学教室开始射击，造成两人死亡、九人受伤。

In Providence, Rhode Island, a gunman burst into a classroom at Brown University on Saturday and started shooting, killing two people and injuring nine.

警方仍在搜捕嫌疑人。

Police are still searching for the suspect.

这起枪击事件具有一个特别美国化的特征。

The shooting contained a particularly American wrinkle.

至少有两名布朗大学学生，这是他们经历的第二次校园枪击事件。

For at least two Brown students, it was their second school shooting.

这太超现实了，你知道吗，已经不得不经历第二次了。

It's surreal, you know, already having to have done this once.

这是第二次了。

This is the second time.

早在2019年，米娅·特雷达在加州圣克拉丽塔读高中一年级时，曾被校园枪手击中腹部。

Back in 2019, Mia Treda was shot in her stomach by a school shooter when she was a freshman in high school in Santa Clarita, California.

周六晚上，现为布朗大学大三学生的特雷达正在宿舍学习时，得知同样的悲剧再次上演，这次就发生在她的大学。

On Saturday night, Treda, now a junior at Brown, was studying in her dorm room when she learned that the same thing was happening all over again, this time at her college.

但我们收到了感觉像是上百条短信，说有活跃枪手。

But we got what felt like hundreds of texts saying that there is an active shooter.

待在室内。

Stay inside.

待在原地。

Stay where you are.

逃跑、躲藏、反抗。

Run, hide, fight.

正如特蕾塔告诉我的搭档瑞秋·艾布拉姆斯的那样，她选择就读布朗大学是因为她觉得校园有一种安全感。

As Tretta told my cohost, Rachel Abrams, she had chosen to attend Brown because she felt a sense of safety on its campus.

而我整个童年时期的安全感和纯真感在2019年11月14日于斯瓦格斯高中被彻底剥夺了。

And my whole sense of safety and innocence in childhood was taken away on 11/14/2019 at Swagas High School.

试图找回任何一点那种感觉，我觉得在布朗大学可以做到。

And trying to reclaim any of that back, I felt like I could do that at Brown.

而现在这种感觉再次被夺走了。

And now it's just been taken away again.

这就是我们目前所了解到的关于这两起枪击事件的全部情况。

That's all we know for now about both of these shootings.

我们将持续关注并为您带来最新消息。

We'll keep you posted as we learn more.

今天，民主党人正在讨论如何对抗特朗普总统对移民问题的强硬镇压，并试图以他们自己的愿景赢回选民。

Today, as Democrats debate how to counter president Trump's aggressive crackdown on immigration and try to win back voters with their own vision.

我们回顾了为什么前总统拜登最初会让边境问题失控到这种地步，以及他如何低估了这个问题对其总统任期的决定性影响。

We look back at why former president Biden let the border get so out of control in the first place and how he underestimated just how much the problem would come to define his presidency.

我的同事克里斯·弗拉维尔将带我们深入了解他对拜登政府在移民问题上失误的调查，以及他的政党能从这些错误中学到什么。

My colleague, Chris Flavelle, takes us into his investigation of how Biden fumbled the issue of immigration and what his party can learn from his missteps.

今天是12月15日，星期一。

It's Monday, December 15.

克里斯，今年秋天你花了大量时间对拜登政府最大的败笔之一——其移民政策——进行回溯性调查。

Chris, you've spent much of this fall taking a forensic look back at what many consider to be one of the Biden administration's biggest failures, its immigration policy.

在拜登任内，边境移民数量激增至创纪录水平。

Under Biden, immigration at the border surged to record numbers.

许多人认为这导致民主党输掉了2024年大选，并为当前我们正在经历的移民管控措施埋下伏笔。

Many say it costs Democrats the election in 2024 and set the stage for the immigration crackdown that we're in the middle of right now.

我想先问，为什么要在拜登离任一年后的此刻回顾这项政策？

I wanna just start by asking, why look back on that policy in this moment, a year after Biden left office?

现在这个时刻看起来和2020年非常相似。

So this moment looks a whole lot like 2020.

对吧？

Right?

特朗普总统在白宫实施非常激进的策略，针对移民进行逮捕和驱逐。

You've got president Trump in the White House enacting really aggressive strategies in terms of arrests and deportations of migrants.

这些政策引发了民主党人及其他群体的强烈愤怒，民主党作为一个政党正试图确定应采取的立场。

You get really, really strong anger from Democrats and others in response to those policies, and you've got Democrats as a party trying to figure out what position to take.

这正是2020年乔·拜登首次竞选总统时的情况，以及他胜选后决定作为总统应采取何种措施时的局面。

That's exactly what was happening in 2020 as Joe Biden was first campaigning for the presidency and then deciding after winning what to do as presidents.

面对同样的压力，他采取了极其激进的反击策略，扮演反特朗普的角色。

He responded to those same pressures by charting a really aggressively counter campaign, being the anti Trump.

而我们现在通过后见之明看到了结果如何。

And we saw, with the benefit of hindsight what the result was.

边境遭遇人数激增，公众舆论大幅转向反对民主党，最终导致唐纳德·特朗普以反移民和开放边境的竞选纲领再次入主白宫。

Huge surge in border encounters, massive shift in public opinion against Democrats, and ultimately, Donald Trump returning to the White House again on a campaign against migrants and an open border.

因此，我认为事情为何如此糟糕以及民主党人吸取了哪些教训的问题，实际上在当前极具现实意义。这个时机非常关键，因为关于该党立场及美国人对边境和移民政策的期望问题，从根本上仍未解决。

So I think the question of why did things go so badly and what did Democrats learn is actually really relevant right now, and it's very timely because that question of what does the party stand for and what do Americans want for the border and immigration remains fundamentally unresolved.

这就是为什么我回过头来花费数月时间研究这个问题：拜登及其核心幕僚为何会做出那些决策。

So that's why I went back and spent months looking at this question of why did Biden and his close aides make the decisions they did.

而我发现，令人惊讶的是，许多这样的错误和反弹是早已注定且被警告过的，但他们依然我行我素。

And what I found was, surprisingly, a lot of those mistakes and blowback was preordained and warned, and they did it anyway.

怎么个注定法？

Preordained how?

你这话是什么意思？

What do you mean by that?

让我们回到2020年。

So let's go back to the 2020.

此时正值竞选高潮阶段。

This you're now approaching the height of the campaign.

乔·拜登正以对移民更友好的政纲竞选总统。

Joe Biden is seeking the presidency on a platform of being much more welcoming towards immigrants.

在此期间，我了解到他的一些顾问开始传阅一份包含重要警告的备忘录。

As this is happening, I learned, some of his advisers began circulating a memo with a really important warning.

我们获得的这份备忘录指出：结合当时所有因素——特朗普时期被压抑的移民需求、新冠疫情造成的经济破坏，再加上拜登先生自己的承诺和更友好的态度，他们警告这可能导致边境越境人数激增。

This memo, which we got a copy of, said that combined with everything else that was going on, the pent up demand for migration under Trump, the economic devastation from COVID, on top of that, mister Biden's own promises and his more welcoming tone, they warned, could produce a really serious surge in border crossings.

今天重读那份备忘录的措辞，其精准程度令人惊叹。

And reading that language today, it's remarkable how on the nose it was.

该备忘录明确指出：‘在美国边境，潜在的移民潮可能引发混乱与人道主义危机，使处理能力不堪重负，并危及新政府的议程。’

That memo said, quote, at The US border, a potential surge could create chaos and a humanitarian crisis, overwhelm processing capacities, and imperil the agenda of the new administration.

这些警告并未得到拜登竞选团队的重视，但这些顾问仍坚持通过组织层级向上传达，直到拜登胜选后，他收到了这份备忘录制定者的简报。

These warnings did not go over well with Biden's campaign team, but these advisers kept on raising this through the ranks of the organization until finally, after Biden had won election, he got a briefing from the people who worked on this memo.

据透露，在那次简报会上，当选总统拜登和当选副总统哈里斯似乎意识到这是个问题，但最终仍无视了改变路线的建议。

And I'm told during that briefing that the president-elect and Kamala Harris, the vice president-elect, seemed to grasp that this was a problem, but they wound up ignoring those recommendations to change course.

让我确认理解正确：你是说早在拜登胜选前，就有顾问撰写了这份备忘录，后来还进行了简报，警告立即兑现竞选承诺可能带来的风险？

Just so I make sure I understand this, you're saying that very early on, even before Biden won, there were advisers who wrote this memo, who eventually carried out this briefing, warning about the perils of immediately doing everything he said he would during the campaign.

但拜登和哈里斯置之不理。

But Biden and Harris ignored them.

解释下原因。

Explain why.

是的。

Yeah.

听着。

Look.

这个原因非常重大。

The the why is epic.

对吧？

Right?

原因的第一部分是政治。

The first part of the why is politics.

有必要回顾2020年的氛围。

It's worth remembering what the mood was in 2020.

那时正值'黑人的命也是命'运动高潮。

This was the height of Black Lives Matter.

那是美国历史上一个特殊时刻——尤其对民主党人而言——人们真切相信种族问题清算正在进行。

This was a moment in American history when there's a real belief, especially among Democrats, that there was a racial reckoning underway.

似乎政治考量让他们不能背弃这个立场。

And it seems as though the political calculus was they couldn't turn their back on that.

在那种氛围下，他们无法决定在边境执法上采取更强硬的措施。

They couldn't, in that atmosphere, decide they would get a little more aggressive on border enforcement.

这就是外部原因。

That's the external why.

内部原因在于，拜登政府早期的人员选择反映了这样一种理念：既在政治上合理，又在道德上有必要关注如何帮助寻求庇护者，而非过分强调边境执法。

The internal why, the staffing choices in the Biden administration early on reflected this idea that it was both politically sound and morally necessary to focus on how to help asylum seekers and not to focus as much on enforcing the border.

这就是他面临的压力。

So that's the pressure he's facing.

但拜登本人对此问题持何看法？

But what does Biden himself think of this issue?

我与30多位曾在政府处理边境和移民事务的人员进行访谈时，一个非常明显的共同点是，几乎所有人都表示并不真正了解拜登本人的观点。

One of the really strong through lines from almost all of my interviews with more than 30 people who worked in the administration on border and immigration issues is that none of them felt like they really understood what Biden's own views were.

事实上，他们不确定拜登在移民和边境问题上是否持有坚定明确的立场。

In fact, they weren't sure he held strong, clear views and positions on immigration and the border.

只有少数几件事是他明显关心的。

There were a few things he clearly cared about.

他不想看到孩子们被关在边境巡逻站的恶劣条件下。

One was he didn't wanna see kids held in these difficult conditions at border patrol stations.

他不想被视为像特朗普那样强制移民在墨西哥等待听证时那样做。

He didn't wanna be seen as doing anything like what Trump had done in terms of forcing migrants to remain in Mexico while they were waiting for their claims to be heard.

但除此之外，我听到的最强烈的批评之一是，拜登作为总统没有设定某种广泛的战略目标。

But beyond that, one of the strongest criticisms I heard was that Biden as president did not set sort of broad strategic goals.

有一种感觉，他只是不喜欢谈论这个问题。

There was a sense that he just didn't like talking about this issue.

一个人告诉我，拜登的肢体语言发生了变化。

One person told me that Biden's body language changed.

你可以看出他在谈论移民时感到不舒服。

You could tell he was uncomfortable when he was talking about migration.

有趣。

Fascinating.

就像，他在谈论这个问题时身体上感到不适。

Like, he was physically uncomfortable talking about it.

但听起来，就他对这个问题的思考而言，他确实同情那些认为在道义上有必要推翻特朗普移民镇压标志性政策的一方。

But it sounds like to the extent that he was thinking about the issue, he does have sympathy with the side that believes there's a moral imperative to reversing the signature pieces of Trump's immigration crackdown.

我们知道，一旦上任，拜登正是这样做的。

And we know that once in office, that's exactly what Biden does.

那么请描述一下。

So describe that.

描述发生了什么。

Describe what happened.

是的。

Yeah.

乔·拜登在入主白宫的第一天，就兑现了他在竞选期间承诺要做的事。

Joe Biden, the first day he was in the White House, made good on what he had promised to do during the campaign.

他几乎推翻了特朗普所有的标志性政策。

He reversed almost all of Trump's signature policies.

他说他会停止修建边境墙。

He said he would stop building the wall.

他大幅缩减了国内对移民的逮捕范围。

He dramatically reduced the scope of arrests inside the country for migrants.

他终止或试图终止所谓的'留在墨西哥'政策，该政策强制移民在案件审理期间等待。

He ended or tried to end what they call the remain in Mexico policy, forcing migrants to wait while their cases were heard.

他停止了根据COVID公共卫生规定将儿童遣返边境的做法，并宣布将暂停驱逐出境100天。

He stopped sending kids back over the border under the public health rules for COVID, and he announced that he would put a halt on deportations for a hundred days.

对。

Right.

而释放对移民更欢迎态度的信号后，随之而来的确实是边境人数的激增。

And what followed from signaling a more welcoming stance toward migrants was, in fact, a huge surge at the border.

是的。

Yeah.

几乎立刻就演变成了一场灾难。

It was a disaster almost immediately.

你可以将此视为拜登团队在移民问题上的一系列重大误判中的第一个，他们未能预料到涌入人数的规模。

You could look at this as the first of a series of major miscalculations that the Biden team made on immigration, failing to anticipate the scale of the numbers of the people who were coming.

在竞选和过渡期间，当他们为这些情况做准备时，他们说，让我们以拜登就职后边境过境人数将达到特朗普时期最糟糕年份或月份的水平并持续下去为前提来制定计划。

During the campaign and the transition, as they prepared for these scenarios, they said, let's plan around the idea that the number of people crossing the border once Biden is in office will equal the worst year or the worst month under Trump and then just stay there.

而对该提议的反应是：情况不可能恶化到那种程度。

And the reaction to that proposal was, well, it could never get that bad.

果然，在拜登就任第一年的三月，他们就已经超过了特朗普第一届政府时期最糟糕的月份，而且不仅停留在这个水平，还持续上升。

And sure enough, by March of Biden's first year in office, they had blown past the worst month of the first Trump administration, and then not only did it stay at those levels, it kept on rising.

因此，就连那些职责是思考'最坏情况会怎样'的人，结果也被证明错得离谱。

So even the people whose job was to think, well, how bad could it be turned out to be incredibly mistaken.

他们根本没有想象到试图抵达边境的移民在地理范围和数量规模上的程度。

They just didn't imagine the geographic and numerical scale of migrants who try to reach the border.

当情况恶化程度变得明显时，拜登对这场混乱的回应是什么？

And when it becomes clear just how bad it is, what's Biden's response to the chaos?

拜登及其团队当时专注于应对儿童被困在不适合他们的边境巡逻站的紧急危机，因此他们当下的重点和目标是设法安置这些儿童，将他们转移到安全且合适的地方。

Biden and his team were focused on responding to the immediate crisis of children who were stuck in border patrol stations that were not designed for them, and so their emphasis, their goal in the moment was to find something to do with these children, to move them somewhere safe that made sense for them.

这确实是一种被动应对事件、试图减轻损害的局面，但缺乏关于'美国在边境问题上应该采取什么行动、如何确保边境安全'的总体战略构想。

It was a real situation of trying to react to events and just sort of mitigate the damage, but there was no overarching vision of, well, what should The US do on the border and securing the border?

你描述的是白宫的一种瘫痪状态。

You're describing a sort of paralysis from the White House.

高层缺乏真正的政策制定视野。

No real policy making vision from the top.

我不得不问，这件事上是谁在掌舵？

I have to ask, who is driving the car on this?

如果不是拜登，那到底是谁在做决策？

If it's not Biden, then who's making the calls?

我报道中反复出现的一个主题就是：根本没人掌控全局。

One of the themes from my reporting was nobody was driving the bus.

多次有相关工作人员告诉我，政策制定陷入瘫痪的部分原因是：在早期阶段，没有专人被明确指派负责制定和实施边境与移民政策。

Over and over again, people who worked in this told me that part of the reason for the policy making paralysis was there was, during the early period, no single person who was specifically assigned responsibility to figure out and implement policy on the border and immigration.

在这种情况下，各派系持有不同观点。

In the absence of that, you had different factions that had different views.

白宫内部有些人来自移民倡导领域，通常对移民和寻求庇护者更为同情。

You had people inside the White House who came from the world of immigration advocacy, generally more favorable to migrants and asylum seekers.

还有一些人是从国家安全角度出发，他们倾向于强调边境执法，双方无法达成一致。

You had people who came to this from more of a national security mindset, and they tended to emphasize enforcement of the border, and they couldn't agree.

最重要的是，总统身边的核心圈子真正认为，你知道吗？

And above all of that, you had this inner circle around the president that really thought, you know what?

这根本无解。

There's no win here.

我们讨论这个也得不到任何好处。

We're not gonna get points for talking about this.

我们干脆别谈这个了。

Let's just not talk about it.

我记得当时我在墨西哥城报道这些问题，白宫对此避而不谈的态度非常明显，正如你所说。

I remember I was covering these issues at the time from Mexico City, and it was stark how the White House didn't wanna speak to this, as you say.

但其他所有人，普通民众，都在谈论这件事。

But everyone else, regular people, were talking about it.

我是说，他们对正在发生的事情感到担忧。

I mean, they were concerned about what was going on.

是啊。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

听着，要说这其中有什么逻辑的话，我被告知的逻辑是：只要我们不去谈论它，也许问题会自行解决。

And look, to the degree that there was a logic here, I'm told that the logic was, if we just don't talk about it, maybe it'll resolve on its own.

当我第一次从参与这些讨论的人那里听到这个说法时，我觉得这显然很荒谬，但背后确实存在某种依据，因为过去确实发生过类似情况。

And the first time I heard that from someone who'd been involved in these conversations, I thought that's clearly crazy, but there was some rationale behind it because that had happened in the past.

2014年拜登担任奥巴马政府副总统期间，以及特朗普第一届政府期间，边境都曾出现过激增情况。

Border surges in 2014 when Biden was vice president in the Obama administration, surges under the first Trump administration.

边境数字最终都逐渐平息，公众注意力也随之转移。

The border numbers had eventually subsided, and public attention had moved on.

他们希望这次也能重演，但他们错了。

And they hoped the same would happen again, but they were wrong.

这些数字并没有消退。

These numbers did not fade.

相反，移民潮持续恶化，情况越来越糟。

Instead, the surge kept on getting worse and worse.

好的。

Okay.

所以白宫对此事选择保持沉默。

So the White House wants to be silent on this.

他们不想碰这个问题。

They don't wanna touch the issue.

提醒我们一下，普通美国民众对现在涌入的移民潮有什么反应？

Remind us, what's the reaction among Americans, among regular people to the waves of migrants that are now coming in?

是的。

Yeah.

民调数据显示了一个明显的转变，而且这种转变是朝着相反的方向发展的。

The polling data shows a real shift, and that shift goes in the opposite direction.

数据显示更多美国人开始担忧非法移民问题，对移民的支持率正在下降，这似乎是对边境混乱局面的反应。

It shows that more Americans are becoming worried about illegal immigration, and the support for migrants is falling, seemingly in response to this perception of chaos at the border.

按理说这些民调数据本该是危险信号，但当时却被更多的政治误判所掩盖。

And now you would think that that polling data would be a red flag, but it wasn't because of still more political miscalculations.

拜登政府及其幕僚担心，如果在边境执法上采取更强硬措施，可能会疏远拉美裔选民——这些选民正是将拜登送入白宫的重要联盟力量。

The administration, the people around Biden were worried that if they got more aggressive on the border on enforcement, they risked alienating Latino voters who were an important part of the coalition that brought Biden to the White House.

更重要的是，他们认为其他美国选民根本不会太在意这件事。

And beyond that, they figured that other American voters just wouldn't care that much.

他们觉得除非你住在边境州，否则这不会成为你真正关心的问题。

They thought that unless you live in a border state, this wouldn't be a real priority for you.

果然，这种局面没能持续，因为最终德克萨斯州找到了让全美都感受到这个问题的方法。

And sure enough, that situation didn't last because eventually, Texas found a way to make it a problem for the rest of the country.

2022年4月，德州州长格雷格·阿博特想出办法打破拜登对边境问题视而不见的幻想——他发起运动，将移民从德州用大巴运往华盛顿特区，实际上就是在对拜登和民主党人说：你们休想无视这个问题。

In April 2022, governor Greg Abbott of Texas figures out how to blow up this idea that Biden could ignore the border by starting a campaign to actually bus migrants from Texas to Washington DC and effectively say to Biden and the Democrats, you cannot ignore this.

我们不会让你们得逞。

We won't let you.

我们稍后回来。

We'll be right back.

我是苏珊·李。

I'm Susan Lee.

我是《每日报》的研究员兼事实核查员。

I'm a researcher and fact checker with The Daily.

我的工作是确保节目中的每个细节都准确无误。

What I do is make sure details in our episodes are accurate.

我还会花大量时间审核节目嘉宾所说的几乎每句话。

I also spend a lot of time reviewing pretty much anything a guest on the show says.

比如说他们在描述某人毛衣的颜色。

Let's say they're describing the color of someone's sweater.

如果我发现这人实际穿的是蓝色毛衣而非红色，就必须确保我们更正这个错误。

If I find out this person actually wore a blue sweater instead of a red one, I have to make sure that we address it.

可能有些人觉得这些小事无关紧要，但对我们来说，节目中的每个事实都很重要。

And I guess some might think that this kind of stuff is trivial, but for us, every single fact in an episode matters.

我们都会犯错。

We all make mistakes.

我们都是凡人，但我的职责就是做那道额外的防线。

We're all human, but my job is to be that extra layer.

《每日播报》隶属于《纽约时报》。

The Daily is part of The New York Times.

我们竭尽全力确保事实准确无误。

We do everything we can to make sure we get the facts right.

正是订阅用户的支持让我们能够做到这一点。

Subscribers make it possible for us to do that.

若想订阅《纽约时报》，请访问nytimes.com/subscribe。

If you wanna subscribe to The New York Times, go to nytimes.com/subscribe.

克里斯，请描述州长阿博特领导的这场运动——如何把问题直接推到民主党门前，如你所说让他们无法忽视。

Describe this campaign, Chris, led by governor Abbott to bring this problem directly to Democrats' doorsteps and, as you said, make it impossible to ignore.

请为我们回顾整个事件的经过。

Remind us how that all played out.

这场运动始于一辆大巴车。

The campaign started with one bus.

2022年4月，有一辆巴士从德克萨斯州抵达华盛顿特区。

In April 2022, there was a bus that arrived from Texas to Washington DC.

它停在美国国会大厦附近，我们通过公共记录申请获得的数据显示，这辆巴士载有12名委内瑞拉人、4名哥伦比亚人、4名古巴人和4名尼加拉瓜人。

It pulled up near the US capital, and we know from data we got from a public records request that that bus was carrying 12 Venezuelans, four Colombians, four Cubans, and four Nicaraguans.

这标志着德克萨斯州开始通过巴士在数月乃至数年间将数万名移民陆续送往纽约、华盛顿、费城、芝加哥、洛杉矶，最终到达丹佛。

And it was the start of what became tens of thousands of migrants from Texas moved by bus over months and years to New York and Washington, Philadelphia, Chicago, Los Angeles, eventually Denver.

其结果确实引人注目。

And the result was really remarkable.

突然间，民主党执政地区的市长和州长们纷纷表示：哇，这对我们来说是个问题。

You had all of a sudden mayors and governors in democratically held areas saying, woah, This is a problem for us.

这是个财政问题。

This is a problem financially.

我们得花钱为这些人安排酒店房间和庇护所。

We've gotta pay to find hotel rooms and shelters to these people.

我们面临政治难题。

We've got a political problem.

我们的选民不喜欢看到街上突然涌现这么多人。

Our voters don't like seeing this surge of people on the streets.

拜登白宫公开表示，得了吧。

Publicly, the Biden White House is saying, come on.

这是在作秀。

This is a stunt.

你们把移民当作道具。

You're using migrants as props.

这真是卑鄙。

This is despicable.

这是公众的回应。

That was the public response.

但私下里，阿博特的这场运动被描述为一个转折点，政府工作人员开始意识到，我们实际上已经在这场辩论中落败了。

But internally, this campaign by Abbott was described to me as a turning point where people who worked for the administration began to think, you know what, we actually have lost this debate.

此刻正是人们将矛头转向我们的时刻。

This is the moment at which people are gonna turn on us.

这促使白宫至少表态说：好吧，我们确实不能无所作为。

And it pushed the White House to at least say, okay, well, we can't do nothing.

我们该怎么办？

What are we gonna do?

现在他们终于开始意识到这个问题，接下来会采取什么行动？

And what do they do now that they've finally started to wake up to this?

没错。

Yeah.

于是在2023年，拜登执政的第三年，这届政府尝试了两项重大举措来缓解边境混乱局面。

So in this year, 2023, the third year that Biden is present, this administration tried two big swings to reduce the sense of chaos at the border.

其中一项计划是从古巴、尼加拉瓜、海地、委内瑞拉等几个国家接收移民——这些国家原本占据了越境者的很大比例——并对他们说：知道吗？

One of them was a program to sort of take people from a handful of countries, Cuba, Nicaragua, Haiti, Venezuela, that had made up a big share of border crossers, and say, know what?

你们不必强闯边境，我们会直接允许你们入境。

Instead of rushing the border, we'll just let you in.

我们将设立正规申请程序，通过背景调查后可以乘机入境，这样就能减轻边境压力。

We'll have a program that's formal, you can apply, you can pass a background check, and you can fly into the country that will reduce pressure at the border.

这是他们的第一个想法，其次，他们对仍想越境的人说，好吧，这里有一个应用程序CBP one，你必须等待并预约。这两个方案本意都是为了控制人流、减少混乱感，但从最重要的指标——越境人数和边境遭遇来看，这些措施都未能奏效。

That was their first idea, and then second, they said people who want to cross the border still, okay, here's an app, CBP one, and you have to wait and make an appointment, both those programs were intended to control the flow and reduce the sense of chaos, but by the one metric that mattered most, which was border crossings and border encounters, none of this worked.

2023年最后几个月的数据非常清晰地表明。

The numbers from that final few months of 2023 are incredibly clear.

此时越境人数已比拜登就职时增加了两倍。

The border crossings had, by this point, tripled since Biden took office.

每月达到25万人，这完全史无前例，拜登政府这才意识到必须采取更严厉、更强硬的措施。

They were reaching a quarter of a million people per month just totally without any kind of precedent, and that's when the Biden administration finally realized they had to get much more serious and much more aggressive.

那具体会是什么样子呢，变得更严厉更强硬？

And what does that look like, getting more serious and more aggressive?

有几方面。

It's a few things.

首先，他们决定参与数月前启动的参议院谈判，寻求两党协议，赋予白宫实际关闭边境、拒绝庇护申请的权限。

First of all, they decided to get on board with senate talks that had begun a few months earlier trying to look for a bipartisan deal to give the White House authority to effectively close the border to asylum applications.

此外就在12月，拜登政府高级官员飞抵墨西哥城与墨方会晤，向墨西哥传达了非常强硬的信息：我们需要你们关闭自己的南部边境。

Also, at the very December, senior Biden officials flew down to Mexico City to meet with their Mexican counterparts and deliver a a really tough message to Mexico saying, we need you to close your own southern border

对。

Right.

因为我记得这是我们减少到达美国边境人数的唯一方法，而且这确实奏效了。

Because I remember that's the only way we're gonna reduce number of people getting to The US border, and that worked.

墨西哥方面采取了行动，迫于压力，他们对自己的边境实施了非常严厉的管控，这反映在2024年1月（拜登任期的最后一年）的数据上。

The Mexicans took action, and in response to that pressure, really aggressively cracked down on their own border, and you see that in the numbers in January 2024, Biden's last year in office.

这些数字有所下降，但还远远不够。

Those numbers had fallen, but not nearly enough.

他们面临的越境人数仍远高于拜登刚上任时的水平，此时压力进一步加剧——因为在2024年2月，那份正在参议院推进的边境法案因特朗普总统（当时还是候选人）要求共和党人投反对票而宣告失败。

They were still facing much higher crossings than when Biden first came in office, and this is where the pressure gets even more intense because in February 2024, that border bill that was moving through the senate collapses when president Trump, then candidate Trump, tells Republicans to vote against it.

于是拜登突然面临一个真正的困境，而此时距离大选已不足一年。

So all of a sudden, Biden faces a real dilemma, and the election is less than a year away.

就在那时，他们开始考虑你所说的'核选项'——即最终动用拜登作为总统的单边权力，彻底关闭边境的庇护鲁申请通道（他确实在六月这样做了）——令人瞩目的是是，v效果立竿见影。

That's when they began looking at what you think of as the nuclear option, which is finally using the power that Biden had unilaterally of his own authority to effectively close the border to asylum applications, which he did in June, and the thing that was amazing was it basically worked.

数据几乎立即骤降，从政策角度来看，他基本上解决了这个问题。

The numbers plummeted almost right away, and so from a policy perspective, he had basically solved the problem.

是的。

Yeah.

克里斯，帮我理解一下。

Chris, help me understand this.

我当时就有这个疑问。

I had this question at the time.

我现在仍有这个疑问。

I have this question now.

为什么他花了这么长时间才采取行政行动来做这件事？

Why did it take him so long to use executive action to do this?

你问20个人，会得到20种答案。

You ask 20 people, you get 20 answers.

对吧？

Right?

我得到的其中一个答案是，他们就是认为这样做不对。

One answer that I got was, they just didn't believe it was right.

这与民主党关于尊重移民尊严的原则不符。

This was not in keeping with Democrats' principles about, you know, respecting the dignity of migrants.

他们想要尊重法律。

They want to respect the law.

他们既做不到也不愿意行动，直到觉得不得不为之。

They couldn't do it and wouldn't until they felt they had to.

另一种观点是他们希望给国会充分机会自行解决此事，只有当国会显然不会采取行动时。

Another argument is they wanted to give congress every possible chance to do this on their own, and only when it was crystal clear congress wouldn't do it.

只有到那时拜登才会亲自出手。

Only then would Biden do this himself.

无论原因如何，事后看来显然这种做法并未奏效。

Whatever it was, I think in hindsight, what's clear is it didn't work.

他们等待太久，已无法从中获得实质性收益。

They waited too long to get any meaningful benefit from doing this.

解释一下。

Explain that.

选民对此有何看法？

Where are voters on this?

为什么没有奏效？

Why didn't it work?

为什么没能让人们相信他们走在正确的轨道上？

Why didn't it convince people that they were on the right track?

是的。

Yeah.

关于为何失败，有两种思考方式。

There's two ways of thinking about why it didn't work.

其一是时间安排太过紧迫。

One is just the calendar was so unforgiving.

对吧？

Right?

现在距离选举日只剩五个月了。

At this point, you're five months away from election day.

选民们，只要他们一直关注此事，几乎已经经历了三年半的边境危机。

Voters, to the extent they've been paying attention, have lived through three and a half years almost of border crisis.

因此，拜登和民主党支持开放边境的这种想法和认知，在现阶段已经根深蒂固。

So that idea, that perception that Biden and Democrats favor open borders is really cemented by this point.

但另一种观点认为，即便采取了措施，他们也不会大肆宣扬。

But the other argument is even after taking the step, they wouldn't brag about it.

他们并没有公开宣传说，看看我们做了什么。

They did not go out and say, look what we did.

据民主党高层告诉我，这种观点一直存在——如果我们谈论移民和边境问题，我们就输了。

And I'm told by senior Democrats that view persisted, that view of if we're talking about immigration and talking about the border, they're losing.

所以他们决定不把重点放在这上面。

And so they decided not to focus on it.

即便在最后，当他们实质上解决了问题后，那种与生俱来的基础性不安依然存在。

Even at the end, once they effectively solved the problem, that inherent foundational skittishness remained.

我想就你告诉我们的一切展开讨论。

I wanna just talk about everything you've told us.

拜登在移民问题上的误判所引发的后果，其重要性怎么强调都不为过。

It is really hard to overstate the significance of it, the significance of the fallout of Biden's miscalculations on immigration.

显然，ally，这在某种程度上导致了特朗普重新掌权，并彻底改变了这个国家。

Obviously, it led to Trump's return to office in part, and that has totally transformed the country.

但正如你在报道中指出的，这可能带来更深层次、更持久的影响，即它实际上助推了美国公众对移民态度的右倾转变。

But there is this potentially deeper, longer lasting impact that you point to in your reporting, which is that it actually helped lead to this rightward shift in the American public's views of immigration.

你能详细描述一下这种转变吗？

Can you describe that for me?

另外请帮我分析一下，你认为这种转变的持久性如何？

And just help me understand how durable you think that shift is.

诚实的回答当然是，没人知道这种转变能持续多久。

The honest answer, of course, is no one knows how durable that shift is.

自特朗普重返白宫以来，有民调数据显示，在拜登任期结束时达到顶峰的移民问题焦虑情绪已有所缓和，这些数字已回落至拜登执政前的水平。

There is polling data that has come in since Donald Trump came back to the White House, showing that some of the intense unease about immigration that really spiked by the end of the Biden years, That unease has softened a bit, and those numbers have receded to sort of the pre Biden levels.

但民调无法反映的是，根据与相关人士的交流，，美国选民中似乎存在一种挥之不去的愤怒情绪，无论是民主党还是共和党支持者。

But what that doesn't account for is anecdotally, and based on conversations with people who work on this, there seems to be a real sense of of lingering anger among American voters, Democrats, Republicans.

人们普遍仍对拜登总统任期内的所见所闻心有余悸。

The sense that people remain collectively a little bit scarred by what they saw when Biden was president.

你提出的核心问题是：面对特朗普引发的反弹，民主党人是否会重新转向更宽松的移民政策？

The question you're pushing on is, are Democrats gonna swing the pendulum back to more permissive immigration policies now that there is a backlash against Trump?

还是说他们会回顾拜登的作为并表示'这些错误我们不愿重蹈'？

Or are they gonna look back at what Biden did and say, look, these are mistakes that we don't wanna repeat?

毕竟你经常接触这些政策制定者。

And, I mean, you talk to these folks.

对此你有明确的判断吗？

Do you have any clarity on that?

根据我的采访报道，目前没有迹象表明民主党已解决这个问题。

I see no evidence from the reporting I did that Democrats have answered that question.

我不认为他们已从拜登时期吸取教训，或明确了未来在移民问题上的立场。

I I don't get the sense that they have figured out what the lessons are from the Biden years and and what they should say on immigration going forward.

实际上民主党面临的困境与共和党相同——被夹在两个极端立场之间进退维谷。

And I think the challenge that Democrats face is actually the same challenge facing Republicans, which is being squeezed between two extremes, right?

我们知道特朗普那种极端强硬打击的方式确实能有效减少边境越境行为，也能满足部分美国人的诉求，但确实引发了强烈反弹——许多美国选民似乎对特朗普手段的严苛性感到不安。

We know that the Trump style approach of extremely aggressive crackdowns can work at reducing border crossings, and it can satisfy some portion of Americans, but there's a real pushback, right, it sure seems like many American voters are uneasy about the severity of the Trump approach.

是的。

Yep.

另一方面，正如过去四年所见，许多美国人对边境开放的观感同样感到不安。对于温和派民主党人或共和党人而言，真正的挑战在于尝试找到第三种方案。

On the other hand, as we saw in the last four years, a lot of Americans are uneasy with the perception of open borders, and the challenge for moderate Democrats or moderate Republicans will be trying to find a third approach.

但即便他们能从政策层面构想出这种方案，又能否让美国选民接受呢？

But even if they can figure out what that is from a policy perspective, can they get American voters to accept it?

或许由于拜登任期遗留的民怨，在可预见的未来，那些更趋包容的新政策思路在政治上已无实施空间。

And maybe the room for new ideas, something closer to a more welcoming approach is for the foreseeable future closed politically because of that lingering anger from the Biden years.

因此乔·拜登在移民政策上真正的政治遗产可能是：人们给予移民——甚至给予民主党——疑罪从宽的意愿，至少目前已经荡然无存。

And so maybe the real legacy of Joe Biden on immigration is that people's willingness to give immigrants the benefit of the doubt or even give Democrats the benefit of the doubt is, at least for now, gone.

好的，克里斯，谢谢。

Well, Chris, thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

以下是今天你还需要了解的其他内容。

Here's what else you need to know today.

叙利亚和美国官员证实，周六枪杀两名美军士兵和一名美国翻译的枪手是叙利亚安全部队成员，他因极端主义观点将被开除。

Syrian and American officials confirmed that a gunman who killed two US army soldiers and an American interpreter on Saturday was a member of Syria's security forces who was set to be dismissed for his extremist views.

官员称这次由ISIS发动的袭击，是叙利亚强人领袖巴沙尔·阿萨德一年前被赶下台以来，该国首次造成美军人员伤亡。

The attack, which officials said was carried out by ISIS, claimed the first US casualties in Syria since the country's strongman leader, Bashar al Assad, was ousted from power a year ago.

特朗普总统已誓言要报复。

President Trump has vowed to retaliate.

本期节目由玛丽·威尔逊、妮娜·费尔德曼、杰西卡·钟、阿斯塔·查图维迪和埃里克·克鲁普克制作，克莱尔·特内斯克特协助完成。

Today's episode was produced by Mary Wilson, Nina Feldman, Jessica Chung, Astha Chaturvedi, and Eric Krupke with help from Claire Tenesketter.

由MJ·戴维斯·林恩和帕特里夏·威伦斯编辑。

It was edited by MJ Davis Lynn and Patricia Willens.

音乐由丹·鲍威尔、帕特·麦卡斯克、艾丽西亚·贝图克和玛丽昂·洛萨诺创作，克里斯·伍德负责技术制作。

Contains music by Dan Powell, Pat McCusker, Alicia Baitouk, and Marion Lozano, and was engineered by Chris Wood.

以上就是今天的《每日播报》内容。

That's it for The Daily.

我是娜塔莉·基特罗克。

I'm Natalie Kitroak.

明天见。

See you tomorrow.