埃隆·马斯克如何策划了史上最大规模的IPO

我给我弟弟订了一份《纽约时报》的订阅。

I gave my brother a New York Times subscription.

我们会互相分享文章。

We exchange articles.

读了同一篇文章之后，我们就能一起讨论。

And so having read the same article, we can discuss it.

她送了我一年的订阅，所以我能看所有的内容。

She sent me a year long subscription so I have access to all the games.

《纽约时报》让我们的相处时光更有质量。

The New York Times contributes to our quality time together.

它让我们的关系更深厚了。

It enriches our relationship.

这真是个

It was such a

特别贴心又棒的礼物。

a cool and thoughtful gift.

我们看的是同样的内容。

We're reading the same stuff.

我们做的是同样的饭菜。

We're making the same food.

我们的想法完全一致。

We're on the same page.

了解更多关于将《纽约时报》订阅作为礼物送出的信息，请访问 nytimes.com/gift。

Learn more about giving a New York Times subscription as a gift at nytimes.com/gift.

来自《纽约时报》，我是迈克尔·比尔巴罗。

From the New York Times, I'm Michael Bilbaro.

这是《每日新闻》。

This is The Daily.

周一，人工智能巨头Anthropic提交了上市申请，推动了一波重磅IPO浪潮，可能催生全球首位万亿富翁，并重塑美国资本主义。

On Monday, the AI giant Anthropic filed paperwork to go public, turbocharging a coming wave of blockbuster IPOs that could mint the world's first trillionaire and remake American capitalism.

这批IPO中的首例将是埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX，预计下周就开始发售股票。

The first of those IPOs will be Elon Musk's SpaceX, set to begin selling shares as soon as next week.

今天，商业记者瑞安·麦克带我们深入了解SpaceX创下纪录的上市计划，并解释它如何已经改变了投资规则，使得它的成败将影响到我们每一个人。

Today, business reporter Ryan Mac takes us inside the plan for SpaceX's record shattering debut on the stock market and explains how it's already changing the rules for investing in ways that mean its success or failure will affect all of us.

今天是6月2日，星期二。

It's Tuesday, June 2.

瑞安，欢迎来到节目。

Ryan, welcome to the show.

嗨，迈克尔。

Hey, Michael.

谢谢邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

不客气。

My pleasure.

我得坦白一件事。

A confession here.

《每日新闻》很少会报道公司上市的事情。

It's very rare for The Daily to cover an IPO.

这是因为很少有IPO能像我们今天要聊的这个一样，引发如此强烈的关注、兴奋和担忧。

And that's because it's pretty rare that an IPO generates a level of interest and excitement and worry that the one we're gonna talk to you about today does.

所以我第一个问题是，为什么SpaceX的这次上市对这么多人来说如此重要，感觉如此非同寻常？

So my first question to you is why does this initial public offering of SpaceX matter so much and feel so monumental to so many people?

我觉得这完全跟埃隆·马斯克有关，他是SpaceX的创始人兼首席执行官。

I think it has everything to do with Elon Musk, SpaceX's founder and CEO.

而跟埃隆·马斯克相关的每件事，这次上市都独一无二。

And like everything with Elon Musk, this IPO is singular.

它很可能会成为有史以来规模最大的一次，融资额在500亿到750亿美元之间。

It's likely going to be the largest of all time, raising anywhere from 50 to $75,000,000,000.

这家公司的估值很可能超过1.25万亿美元。

It's going to value this company likely at more than $1,250,000,000,000.

天啊。

Wow.

这次上市还可能让已经身为世界首富、最具影响力人物之一的埃隆·马斯克，成为全球首位万亿富翁。

And it could make Elon Musk, already the richest man in the world, already one of the most powerful people in the world, the world's first trillionaire.

对。

Mhmm.

而且能投资这样一家独一无二的公司，我觉得这让很多人感到兴奋。

And this opportunity to invest in this kind of one of a kind company, I think that excites a lot of people.

它是一家火箭制造商。

It is a rocket manufacturer.

它为政府和私营企业发射航天器，同时在人工智能领域也有很强的布局。

It launches things into space for the government and for private companies, and it's also got this artificial intelligence bent to it as well.

在这次IPO中，你会看到大量散户投资者积极参与，他们看好这家由一代传奇企业家领导的公司。

And what you're gonna see in this IPO is a large involvement of retail or mom and pop investors who are excited to invest in a company they see as run by a generational entrepreneur.

那为什么马斯克现在要通过IPO的方式来融资呢？

Well, why is Musk trying to raise this money right now and through the method of an IPO?

你并不非得让公司上市才能融到大笔资金。

You don't have to make a company public to raise a lot of money.

融资的方式多得很。

There are all kinds of ways to raise money.

你不一定非得上市，但这家公司已经私有化二十多年了。

You don't have to take it public, but this company has been private for more than twenty years.

它成立于2002年，之前已经从风投和私募股权基金那里筹集了大量资金。

It was founded in 2002, and it's raised a lot of money already on the private markets from venture capitalists, from private equity funds.

作为一个公司，这辈子可能就只有一次机会能到公开市场融资。

So as a company, you kind of get one shot to do this in your lifetime, to raise money on the public market for the first time.

所以马斯克觉得，这是他把握机会、筹集数百亿美元资金的好时机，用来支持太空探索未来十年、二十年甚至三十年的目标。

And so Elon Musk sees this as his opportunity to do that and to raise these tens of billions of dollars to fund a lot of the goals that SpaceX has for the next ten, twenty, thirty years.

你们在深空肯定部署了太阳能驱动的AI卫星。

You must have solar powered AI satellites in in deep space.

所以说，有个航天公司确实挺方便的，我想是这样。

So, yeah, this is where it's kinda handy to have a space company, I guess.

我说的是把数据中心送入太空，用来支持人工智能。

I'm talking about visions to launch data centers into space for AI.

你可以开采

You can mine

在月球上开采硅矿，提纯后制造太阳能电池板和散热器。

the silicon on the moon, refine it, and and create the solar panels or the solar cells and the radiators.

我说的是把人送上月球，建立工厂来采矿。

I'm talking about landing humans on the moon and building factories to do mining.

我们终将能把宇航员送到火星，最终在火星上建立一个自给自足的文明。

We are gonna, be able to take astronauts to Mars and ultimately build a self sustaining civilization on Mars.

这是一家公司长期追求的目标。

That is the long term goal of the company.

归根结底，他一直想让人类成为多星球物种，登陆火星，让人类不再只依赖一个星球生存。

Ultimately, he's talked about making humans multiplanetary, getting them to Mars, and making us a species that exists on more than one planet.

从长远来看，成为多星球物种至关重要，甚至最终要走出太阳系，把生命带到更远的地方。

It is very important, essential that over the long term that we become a multi planet species and ultimately even go beyond the solar system and bring life with us.

没错。

Right.

这些目标其实还挺保守的。

Those very modest goals.

没错。

Yes.

确实是很低调的目标。

Very modest goals.

听上去你的意思是，这种近乎异想天开的商业目标，需要的资金量根本不是去花旗银行就能贷到的。

And it sounds like you're saying that those kinds of literally otherworldly business goals require the kind of money that you cannot just go to Wells Fargo and then get from the bank.

当然。

Yeah.

我敢说，埃隆绝不会趴在地上翻沙发缝找零钱来凑这事儿。

I'm sure that Elon is not necessarily going under his couch cushions and scrounging for for change here.

我们说的是那种极其庞大、难得一见的资金规模。

We are talking about huge vast sums of money that don't come around very often.

别忘了，现在还有其他公司也在拼命筹钱。

Bear in mind as well that we have these other companies also trying to raise money.

我说的是OpenAI、Anthropic这些公司，对吧。

I'm talking about OpenAI, Anthropic as well Right.

这些公司都打算上市，也要筹集数百亿美元的资金。

That are looking to go public and raise also tens of billions of dollars.

所以现在关键是谁能最快出手，从投资者那里拿到钱，毕竟可投资的资金就这么多。

And so there's kind of this element of who can get out fastest and, you know, raise money from the investor because there's only so much money out there to raise.

对。

Right.

到目前为止，马斯克会是第一个。

And so far, Musk will be first.

他会的。

He will.

他会的。

He will.

现在的问题是，如何让投资者相信，拥有强大人工智能业务的SpaceX，比Anthropic或OpenAI更值得投资。

And it's now a question of convincing the investors that SpaceX, which has now a large AI component to it, is indeed a better bet than, let's say, Anthropic or OpenAI.

你提到这次IPO让普通投资者也有机会参与。

You describe this as a chance for mom and pop investors to become a part of this IPO.

我平时可不这么看待一家公司上市。

That's not the way I typically think of a company going public.

我想到的都是摩根士丹利、高盛这样的大投行，而不是你我还有爸妈这样的普通人。

I think of big banks like Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs, not you and me and our moms and dads.

这些普通投资者，业内叫散户，现在可以通过像嘉信理财或Robinhood这样的券商账户参与投资。

So these mom and pop investors, something the industry likes to call retail investors, get an opportunity to invest here through their brokerage accounts like Charles Schwab or Robinhood.

通常，IPO会预留5%到10%的股份给散户。

Typically, you get five to 10% of shares in an IPO reserve for retail.

现在有人在讨论，可能要把30%的股份分给散户。

There's discussion now of about 30% being allotted to retail.

那就是三倍多了。

So three times more.

这意义不小。

That's meaningful.

那为什么马斯克要把股票向普通散户开放得比其他上市企业多这么多？

And why is Musk making this stock so much more available than normal to your regular retail investor than most companies that are going public?

我觉得就是这件事的规模实在太大了。

I think it's just the sheer size of this thing.

它需要的投资者远不止那些传统上参与IPO的银行和基金。

It's going to need investors beyond your traditional banks and funds that typically put their money into IPOs.

它还需要一大群投资者持续相信这家公司，长期持有它的股票。

And it's also going to need a hefty base of investors to continue believing in this company and holding its shares.

多年来，埃隆·马斯克在吸引普通大众方面一直非常有策略。

And so Elon Musk, over the years, has been pretty brilliant in his strategy of courting the everyday person.

他现在正是在延续这一策略，吸引散户投资者，制造热度。

And he's building on that to attract retail investors here and build this hype.

比如他总在推特——现在叫X——上发帖，不断建立一个由粉丝和关注他公司的人组成的社群。

You know, he is always on Twitter, for example, on X these days, tweeting and building essentially a community of people, of fans, of folks that are just interested in his companies and in him.

他想给这些人一个参与投资的机会。

And he wants to give those people an opportunity to invest.

因为一旦上市，公司就需要股东来支撑它、拥有它、继续投入资金。

Because once this thing IPOs, it's gonna need shareholders to sustain it, and to own it, and to continue investing in it.

明白了。

Got it.

说白了，埃隆·马斯克得靠普通投资者才能成事。

Basically, Elon Musk needs regular investors for this to work.

没错。

Correct.

但即使你不想买SpaceX的股票，或者避开这次IPO，你也可能间接持有SpaceX的一部分股份。

But even if you don't wanna own SpaceX shares or if you avoid this IPO, you may essentially end up owning a part of SpaceX indirectly.

那这是怎么发生的？

And how is that?

为什么会这样？

Why would that be?

就像很多美国人一样，你和我都把钱投在退休基金里。

So like many Americans, you know, you and I have investments in retirement funds.

这些退休基金通常会投向指数基金，也就是一篮子公司股票，目的是跟整个美国经济的表现保持一致。

And, you know, these retirement funds are often invested in index funds, which are a collection of companies and stocks that are meant to mirror American industry.

比如纳斯达克100指数，就是由一百家公司的股票组成的，这些股票都在公开市场交易，所以你可能已经持有一部分纳斯达克100指数。

So for example, the Nasdaq one hundred is a collection of a 100 companies and their stocks trade publicly, and so you may own a chunk of the Nasdaq one hundred.

没错。

Right.

纳斯达克100指数正在放宽规则，让SpaceX能比以往快得多地被纳入这个指数。

The Nasdaq one hundred is relaxing its rules to allow for SpaceX to enter the index a lot more quickly than in the past.

通常情况下，公司上市后，它的股票需要在公开市场交易大约三个月，作为观察期。

Typically, happens is that when a company goes public, its stock needs about three months on the public market for a cooling off period.

这是因为股价会有波动。

And that's because there's fluctuations in stock prices.

你得看看投资者最终会把股价定在什么水平。

You kind of wanna see where investors settle out with the stock Mhmm.

比如股价是涨了还是跌了。

You know, if it goes up or down.

等这三个月过去，一般就会得到认可，然后就可以正式纳入指数了。

And after that three months, typically, you get the thumbs up, and you get to enter the index.

但现在的情况是，SpaceX在上市后仅仅交易了十五天，就会被纳入纳斯达克一百指数，这会迫使那些跟踪该指数的基金必须买入SpaceX的股票，以跟上指数的构成。

What's happening here instead is that after just fifteen days of trading with SpaceX, so fifteen days after the IPO, SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq one hundred and essentially force the funds that trade off the Nasdaq one hundred to buy shares of the company to mirror essentially what's in the index.

这对SpaceX来说意味着能获得更多的资金和更多的投资者。

What that does for SpaceX is that it gives the company way more money and way more investors to work with.

你实际上一下子就能接触到数十亿美元的资金，还有那些因为指数追踪机制而必然会持有你公司股票的股东。

So you're essentially getting access to billions of dollars that you wouldn't necessarily have access to and, you know, shareholders that are already gonna own your stock because of this index opportunity.

这确实挺有意思的。

This is kind of fascinating.

为什么这些指数要放宽规则，对SpaceX变得这么灵活呢？

Why are these indexes relaxing, changing, making more elastic their rules for SpaceX?

这是指数方自己的决定，还是马斯克和SpaceX推动的结果？

Is that their own decision, or is that at the urging of Musk and SpaceX?

这是个好问题。

That's a great question.

我觉得两者都有吧。

I think it's a bit of both.

对马斯克和SpaceX来说，他们能接触到大量资金，价值数十亿美元，如果没有这些规则调整，他们本来是无法获得这些资金的，或者至少要等更久才能拿到。

For Musk and SpaceX, they get access to a lot of capital, billions of dollars worth that they wouldn't have had access to without these rule changes, or they would have had to wait much longer to get access to that.

对于指数基金来说，这里有一种错失恐惧症，也就是FOMO，担心会错过这次百年一遇的IPO给投资者带来的潜在收益。

For the indexes, there is a fear of missing out here, a FOMO that, you know, they could be missing out on these potential gains for their investors in this kind of once in a lifetime IPO.

这让很多专家感到担忧。

And that has frightened a lot of experts.

比如我采访过一位专家，他说这就像是专门为橄榄球制定规则一样。

You know, I I talked to one, for example, who said, it's like creating rules for football.

就在超级碗之前，你会把其中一些规则抛到九霄云外。

And right before you get to the Super Bowl, you throw some of those rules out the window.

你知道的，你制定了一套交通规则，但在这种盛大的活动面前，这些规则就被完全取消了。

You know, you've created these rules of the road here that have simply been eliminated at this kind of monumental event.

嗯，这挺有意思的。

Well, it's interesting.

对吧？

Right?

从某种角度来说，投资于你根本没预料到、也不一定想投资的东西，本身就让人觉得风险很大。

On one level, being invested in something that you don't anticipate or necessarily desire being invested in feels risky just inherently.

但另一方面，如果这次IPO真的大获成功，那么很多人会比过去更快地从中获利。

On the other hand, if this IPO is a huge financial success, then lots of people will be benefiting from it more rapidly than they would have in the past.

这让我想到谷歌上市的时候。

That makes me think about Google's IPO.

我们都希望自己当初在谷歌上市时就投了资。

We all wish we had been invested in Google when it went public.

我记得它上市头六个月就涨了差不多80%。

I think it was up something like 80% in its first six months on the market.

那时候估计也没被纳入这些指数基金。

Probably wasn't on these indexes either.

也许我们当时真希望它能被纳入。

Perhaps we wish it had been.

而这次，SpaceX会被纳入，这可能是个好消息。

And in this case, SpaceX will be, which could be a boon.

我觉得股价一涨，大家都开心。

I think when numbers go up, everyone is happy.

人人都能一起庆祝，分享成功的喜悦，但谁也不能保证股价一定会涨。

You know, everyone gets to celebrate and, you know, take part in the win, but there's no guarantee that this necessarily goes up.

那要是上市头几天股价就开始跌了，怎么办？

And what happens if shares start to fall after the first couple days of trading?

你刚才提到谷歌，但我想到的是Facebook上市时经历的那些波折。

You know, you mentioned Google there, but I think of something like Facebook when it went public and the trials and tribulations it faced.

上市后不久，它的股价就跌了。

You know, its stock went down shortly thereafter.

当然，后来股价涨了好几倍。

Of course, it's gone up many times over since that time.

但在上市初期，大家心里其实有很多疑问。

But in those first early days of trading, there were a lot of questions.

如果SpaceX没能实现那些目标，或者达不到马斯克定下的那些高远计划，投资者很可能会问：当初怎么就允许它上市了？

If SpaceX doesn't hit its milestones or some of these very pie in the sky goals that Elon Musk has set out for the company, you may have a lot of investors asking, why was this allowed?

我为什么要持有这只股票？

Why am I holding the stock?

它当初为什么会入选这些指数？

Why was it in these indexes to begin with?

很明显，这次IPO的故事就在于，它有意让大量普通投资者都能买到SpaceX的股票。

So quite clearly, the story of this IPO so far is how clearly it's seeking to put this stock, put a piece of SpaceX into the hands of a lot of regular people.

这意味着，如果这次IPO成功，收益会广泛地分散到很多人身上。

And that, of course, means that if this is a great IPO, the upside for lots and lots of people is gonna be unusually spread out.

但如果失败了，承受损失的人群也会比平常大得多。

But if it goes south and is bad, then the pain is gonna be felt by a lot larger group of people than normal.

没错。

Right.

一想到这点，你就得琢磨，到底是什么样的业务在支撑着这些估值。

When you think about that, you have to think about what kind of business is essentially holding up those valuations.

每次IPO，公司都必须提交一份S-1文件，公开财务状况和未来展望。

With an IPO, every company has to file what's called an s one to disclose their financial health and their projections for the future.

我这些年一直跟进埃隆·马斯克的动态。

And so I've been covering Elon Musk for many years now.

这是第一次，我能看清SpaceX内部到底在发生什么。

This is the first time I've been able to see the full picture of what's going on at SpaceX.

看完这份277页的文件后，我和很多人一样，都在怀疑：眼前这家公司的业务表现和财务数据，真能撑得起外界给它的万亿估值吗？

And after spending a couple days with this document, which is 277 pages, I and many others just have a lot of questions as to whether or not the business that we're seeing here, the numbers that it's putting up, can justify these trillion dollar valuations that people will be investing in.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

我是乔纳森·奈特，负责《纽约时报》游戏业务。

I'm Jonathan Knight, and I'm the general manager of New York Times Games.

如果你玩过我们的游戏，应该能感觉到它们有点不一样。

If you play our games, you probably know there's something a bit different about them.

就像《纽约时报》的新闻背后有记者一样，我们每天的谜题也有背后的创作者。

Just like there are writers behind the articles you read in the Times, there are creators behind our daily puzzles.

特蕾西·贝内特负责挑选每日Wordle的答案，确保内容生动又多样。

Tracy Bennett curates the day's Wordle solution to keep it lively and varied.

每当伊卢设计每一张连接图板，包括那些故意让人犯难的分类时，萨姆·阿祖尔斯基都会逐字逐句地检查每一个字母、单词和 pangram 以及拼字游戏，确保各个水平的忠实玩家都能享受其中。

When Ilu creates each connections board, including all those categories that try to stump you, Sam Azurski combs through every last letter, word, and pangram and spelling bee so that loyal players of all skill levels enjoy it.

我们的谜题每天都是由人手工打造，完全符合《纽约时报》一贯的高标准。

Our puzzles are human made every day with the standards you'd expect from The New York Times.

这很重要，因为当你选择花时间玩我们的游戏时，你值得拥有那些富有挑战性、出人意料又令人愉悦的谜题——每一款都是专为你精心设计的。

And this matters because when you choose to spend time with our games, it should be time well spent solving puzzles that are challenging, surprising, and joyful, Puzzles handcrafted for you.

我们认为，这样的体验值得投入，也值得付费。

We think that's something worth investing in and something worth paying for.

现在就订阅，享受 nytimes.com/joingames 上所有游戏的特别优惠。

Subscribe now for a special offer on all of our games at nytimes.com/joingames.

所以，瑞安，你已经花时间看了这份将近三百页的文件，也窥见了太空探索技术公司真实业务的内幕，你觉得它的经营状况到底如何？在大家决定是否参与它的IPO时，这很关键。

So, Ryan, now that you have spent time with this nearly 300 page document and you've peeked behind the curtain of SpaceX's actual business, how healthy a business have you concluded that it is or isn't as everyone is deciding whether or not to participate in its IPO?

我觉得这个问题的答案相当复杂。

I think the answer to that is that it's quite complicated.

这个业务确实有一些积极面，但同样也有很多疑问甚至负面因素。

There are some positives about this business, and there are a lot of question marks or negatives about this business as well.

好的。

Alright.

那我们先说说积极的一面。

We'll start with the positive.

没问题。

Sure.

我们先从公司的王牌说起，目前来看就是星链项目。

So let's start with the crown jewel of the company, which right now appears to be Starlink.

这是公司提供的卫星互联网服务。

This is the company's satellite Internet service.

公司发射了环绕地球的卫星，这些卫星向地面用户传输互联网信号。

The company has launched these satellites that circle the Earth, and the satellites beam down Internet service to people on the ground.

现在已经积累了大约一千万用户。

It's now racked up about 10,000,000 users.

真厉害。

Wow.

去年还赚了大约44亿美元。

And about $4,400,000,000 in profit last year.

真厉害。

Wow.

这规模太惊人了。

That's enormous.

这生意可以说非常稳健。

I mean, that's a very healthy business.

这是因为公司在发射领域占据主导地位。

And that's because the company dominates the launch business.

SpaceX当初就是靠这个业务起家的。

That was essentially the business that SpaceX was founded on.

对。

This Mhmm.

他们的想法是把原本由NASA和政府掌控的火箭发射业务私有化。

Idea that it could privatize rocket launches, essentially, that were owned by NASA and the government at the time.

这一赌注回报非常丰厚。

And that bet has paid off well.

这家公司现在牢牢掌控着这个市场。

You know, the company now dominates that market.

对。

Mhmm.

据估计，地球上所有进入轨道的载荷中，超过百分之八十五都是通过SpaceX的火箭完成的。

There are estimates that it does more than 85% of all mass into orbit from Earth is through a SpaceX rocket.

凭借这一点，他们还发展出了星链项目。

And from that, it's been able to build up Starlink as well.

所以，靠着这两项业务，公司形成了一个非常稳健的商业模式。

And so you get this kind of very healthy business off those two things.

明白了。

Okay.

那问题和重大风险在哪里呢？

And where are the question marks slash serious risks?

所以这些疑问主要来自公司对人工智能领域的投入。

So the question marks are stemming from the company's investment into AI.

今年早些时候，SpaceX 与埃隆·马斯克的人工智能公司 xAI 合并了。

Earlier this year, you had SpaceX merge with Elon Musk's AI company, x AI.

当时马斯克说，这是两种业务协同效应的自然融合。

And at the time, Musk justified it as the convergence of synergies.

他认为人工智能的未来会与太空结合，因为那些占地大、耗能高的数据中心，如果放到轨道上，不仅能更靠近太阳获取能源，还能减少对地球资源的占用。

He saw the future of AI taking part in space, and that's because he believed that these AI data centers, which take up a lot of land and resources on Earth, should be put into orbit where they'll have easier access to energy, they'll be closer to the sun, and where they won't take up as many resources as they would on Earth.

说白了，就是把数据中心放到天上。

Basically, data centers in the sky.

让数据中心绕着地球在太空中运行。

Data centers in the sky circling the Earth.

这本来是合并的愿景，但把一家人工智能公司硬加到这家成功的航天公司上，给财务带来了不小的压力。

You know, that was the vision for this merger And bolting on that AI company onto this successful space company has caused financial strain.

2024年，公司的资本支出翻了一倍，达到207亿美元。

The company's capital expenditures doubled to $20,700,000,000 in 2024.

2025年，公司整体业务亏损了43亿美元。

In 2025, it recorded a $4,300,000,000 loss across its whole business.

这给SpaceX的上市文件带来了巨大财务压力。

And that has put a financial strain on SpaceX's IPO documents.

明白了。

Okay.

所以，说白了，AI的成本太高了，就算算上Starlink的盈利，SpaceX整体还是在亏钱。

So, basically, AI is costing SpaceX so much money that when you look at the overall bottom line, including the profitability of Starlink, SpaceX is losing money somehow.

没错。

Correct.

不过我也得说，除了AI之外，还有其他因素。

And I should say that there are other factors beyond AI.

造火箭本身就要花天文数字的钱。

It's incredibly expensive to build these rockets.

公司还在计划研发一种叫星舰的火箭，他们相信这将是把人类送上火星的关键。

The company's also looking to build something called Starship, which is the rocket they believe will bring people to Mars.

对。

Mhmm.

但目前来看，人工智能就像是压在公司脖子上的一块巨石。

But AI right now is the millstone around the company's knack.

没错。

Right.

我的意思是，一家已经运营了二十年的公司，全年都在亏钱，这让我很难理解，它怎么还能值一万两千五百亿美元。

I mean, a company that's twenty years old losing money over a full year makes it hard, at least for me, to understand how you get to an overall valuation of $1,250,000,000,000.

我们经济中有好几家公司估值达到一万亿，但它们都是盈利非常强劲的，比如英伟达或者微软。

There are several companies in our economy that are valued at a trillion dollars, but they are hugely profitable, like thinking of NVIDIA or Microsoft.

那SpaceX是怎么达到这个估值的呢？

So how does SpaceX get to that number?

因为它声称未来会做很多事。

Well, it's saying it's gonna do all these things in the future.

它打算把数据中心搬到太空去。

It's going to put data centers into space.

它打算在月球上建工厂。

It's going to build factories on the Moon.

它要让人登陆火星。

It's gonna land people on Mars.

投资者真正押注的，不是公司现在的基本面，而是它的未来。

And, essentially, what investors are betting on is not the current fundamentals of the company, but you're betting on the future.

对。

Right.

他承诺的未来听起来确实非同寻常。

And the future that he's promising sounds extraordinary.

但我想知道，如果你是个普通小投资者，比如我爸妈，你该怎么判断，通过嘉信理财或者指数基金参与这次IPO，到底值不值这个价？

But I wonder how if you're a mom and pop investor, literally, if you're my mom or my dad, how are you supposed to judge whether buying into this IPO through Charles Schwab or an index fund actually makes sense if that valuation feels realistic.

所以我觉得，用传统股票的方式去评估这家公司，根本行不通。

And that's why I think the evaluation of this company as, like, a traditional stock goes out the window.

你在这儿根本不是在做常规的股票或财务分析。

You know, you're not doing your traditional analyses of shares or financials here.

这很大程度上只是炒作而已。

A lot of this is is simply hype.

我是根据公司自己文件里提到的一个数据来说的，叫潜在市场规模。

And I I say that looking at a number that the company put out in their own document, something called total addressable market.

嗯，明白了。

Okay.

这是公司预计未来能占领的市场范围。

This is the market that the company projects it will be able to attain in the future.

他们在自己的财务文件中估算，这个潜在市场规模是人类历史上最大的，高达28.5万亿美元。

And it estimated in its own financial documents that its total addressable market is the largest ever in human history and that it estimates it to be 28,500,000,000,000.

天哪。

Wow.

你给这个数字找个参照物吧。

Put that number into context.

我也不知道该怎么形容。

I don't know if I can.

我的意思是，这规模太大了。

I mean, it's so massive.

我觉得快赶上美国的GDP了。

It it's it's close to The US GDP, I believe.

天啊。

Wow.

这家公司告诉投资者，只要投资我们，未来我们可能掌控一个28.5万亿美元的市场。

And the company is telling investors that if you invest in us, we may become a company that controls a market that is $28,500,000,000,000.

没错。

Right.

也就是说，有朝一日，它的交易规模会相当于整个美国经济的总量。

That basically does the kind of commerce that the entirety of The United States economy does someday.

是的。

Yeah.

有朝一日。

Someday.

而这一切——人工智能、航天火箭、星链，全部加起来，就是两万八千五百亿美元的市场规模。

And that is AI and rockets to space and Starlink and all that is $28,500,000,000,000.

这就是埃隆·马斯克能卖出去的炒作，我觉得大家之所以买账，主要是因为他过去确实成功过。

That's the type of hype that Elon Musk is able to sell, and I think people buy into that largely because he's been successful in the past.

你看看他的净资产，现在能从六千亿到八千亿美元之间波动，看到这个数字，你可能会想，这人真厉害，他还说要让自己的总潜在市场达到万亿级别。

You look at, you know, his net worth, for example, which can fluctuate anywhere from 600 to $800,000,000,000 these days, And you might see that and be like, wow, this man's been very successful, and he's telling me he's gonna hit these trillion dollars in total addressable market.

所以我愿意相信他，愿意押注他，因为他看起来确实在不断向前推进。

Let me put my faith into him, and let me let me bet on him because he seems to be going places.

那我来检验一下这个说法。

Well, let me put that proposition to the test.

我们来简单回顾一下埃隆·马斯克过去的业绩。

Elon Musk's track record in the past quickly summarize it.

我们有几个现成的例子可以分析。

We have a couple of examples to play with.

当然，首先是特斯拉。

Obviously, we have Tesla.

还有X，就是以前的Twitter。

We also have X, formerly known as Twitter.

那我们先说说特斯拉。

So let's take Tesla.

他把公司上市了，也让电动汽车在全球范围内变得主流。

He took the company public, and the company has mainstreamed electric cars around the world.

从股价来看，特斯拉的表现非常出色。

It has been wildly successful from a stock price perspective.

给很多人赚了不少钱，而且至今股价依然强劲。

It's made folks a lot of money, and it continues to be a a strong public company from a stock price perspective.

没错。

Right.

而且还有大量投资者支持。

And still have investors.

我记得咱们聊之前查过，如果你在特斯拉刚上市时投了一千美元，现在大概能值二十五万了。

I mean, I think I was looking up before we spoke that if you invested a thousand dollars in Tesla at its initial public offering, you'd have something like a quarter million dollars today.

这回报简直太惊人了。

That is a hell of a return.

我觉得这正是马斯克吸引人的地方，也是围绕他那股炒作热潮的一部分。

And I think that's, you know, part of the appeal of Musk and the part of the appeal of so much of this hype around him.

不过，我当年报道过他2022年收购推特的事，那笔交易并不成功。

But also, I covered his acquisition of Twitter back in 2022, which was not

没那么成功。

is not as much of a success.

对。

No.

他当初以四百四十亿美元买下了这家公司。

You know, he bought that company at $44,000,000,000.

后来有一阵子，连他的部分投资者都把公司估值下调到了一百亿美元。

At one point, the valuation of the company, as marked down by its some of his investors, was down to $10,000,000,000.

但他通过把这家公司和他当时的AI公司xAI合并，最终救了它一命。

But he was able to rescue that company by merging it with, at the time, his AI company, x AI.

所以，尽管这家公司从财务上来说并不成功，他却能把这个问题掩盖在自己的人工智能公司里，而那家公司从融资角度看可是相当成功。

And so even though that company has not been a financial success, he's been able to bury that within his AI company, which on paper was quite the success in terms of raising money.

没错。

Right.

这其实说明，对像马斯克这样的人而言，风险根本不是普通意义上的风险，因为他能用自己业务的这一部分去救另一部分。

Which I guess does point to the fact that risk isn't even normal risk with someone like Elon Musk because he's able to use one arm of his business to, in this case, rescue another.

如果你投资了 xAI，那你现在情况怎么样？

And if you're someone who invested in x, are you doing okay now?

你当然不错。

You are.

因为如果你当初投了他收购推特的项目，那现在你手上持有的应该是 SpaceX 的股份。

Because if you were an investor in his Twitter takeover, you now presumably hold SpaceX shares.

所以你现在的收益相当不错。

So you're doing quite well for yourself.

所以当你思考风险和问责制的时候，你会发现，对马斯克这样的人来说，游戏规则完全不一样。

And so you think about risk and you think about accountability for someone like Elon Musk, and the rules of the game are just completely different.

你为什么偏偏要在这里讨论SpaceX和马斯克的责任问题呢？

Just explain why you're raising the issue of accountability here for SpaceX and Musk.

因为大多数上市公司，他们的CEO是要对股东负责的。

Because with most public companies, public CEOs are accountable to their shareholders.

股东有投票权，如果公司表现不好，他们可以投反对票，或者施压董事会采取行动，甚至在认为CEO或其他高管有不当行为时提起股东诉讼。

These shareholders have votes, and if a company doesn't do well, they can vote against their CEO or pressure the board to take action against the CEO, or in some cases, file shareholder lawsuits if they believe something untoward has been done by the CEO or other executives.

对。

Right.

比如，当公司的估值已经完全脱离了当初承诺给股东的水平时。

Or if, for example, the company's valuation no longer bears any resemblance to what shareholders were promised.

没错。

Right.

而马斯克在SpaceX的做法，恰恰削弱了大部分责任机制。

And what Elon Musk has done in this case at SpaceX is remove a lot of the levers for accountability.

我看他在这家公司拥有的权力实在太大了。

I look at the amount of power he has in the company.

他设立了所谓的超级投票权股份，他持有的股份每股拥有十票，而普通股东只有一票。

He has instituted what we call supervoting shares, where the shares he holds have, in this case, 10 to one votes compared to your average share.

他掌握了公司近85%的投票权。

He has almost 85% of the voting control in the company.

天哪。

Wow.

他拥有这种压倒性的多数票，实际上完全掌控了公司。

He has this incredible supermajority where he essentially has unchallenged power.

他控制着董事会。

He controls the board.

他任命了自己的朋友和熟人进入董事会。

He has appointed friends and associates to the board.

他基本上可以独断专行，没人能制约他。

Essentially, he gets to rule the company without any challenge.

股东根本没法发起任何抗议或干预，哪怕公司业绩差到极点。

There's no way for shareholders to essentially stage any kind of revolt or intervention, even if the company's performance is quite bad.

没错。

Right.

你要么全心支持埃隆，要么彻底反对他。

You're kind of with Elon up or down.

你特别提到的问责问题，其实让我们回到一个不可避免的结论：马斯克本人才是真正的投资对象，SpaceX本质上是押注于他的愿景、判断力和过往业绩。

The accountability issues you're raising in particular, I think, bring us back to this inevitable question of Musk and how SpaceX, as you said, is really an investment in him, his vision, his judgments, his past track record.

虽然他的过往记录表明，投资马斯克通常能赢，但最近几年他的行为确实引发了不少疑虑。

And while that track record suggests that in general, you're gonna win if you invest with Musk, The past few years have raised meaningful questions about his conduct.

他跑去参与特朗普第二任期的政府减支计划，搞了个Doge，结果失败了。

He went off to go try to reduce government spending under the second term of President Trump through Doge, and that failed.

而且那段时间，马斯克明显分心了，尤其忽略了特斯拉。

And Musk got really distracted from Tesla especially.

对吧？

Right?

与此同时，他还和特朗普闹翻了，据我所知，差点让特朗普威胁要取消SpaceX的合同。

And at the same time, he got into a huge fight with Trump that almost resulted in Trump threatening his contracts through SpaceX, as I recall it.

我们《纽约时报》的同事在报道中也提出了关于他使用药物的疑问。

There's also questions about his use of drugs raised in reporting by our colleagues here at the Times.

这可不是传统意义上的首席执行官，正因如此才吸引人，但同时也明显带来了风险。

So this is not a traditional CEO, which is part of the allure, but it's also clearly part of the risk.

照你这么说，如果他开始失控，那些常规的问责机制根本起不到作用。

And from what you're saying, none of the normal accountability mechanisms are in place if he starts to go off the rails.

那我们该怎么看待这种整体风险呢？

So how should we think about that as a risk in this all?

对于任何考虑投资他旗下公司的投资者来说，这应该是首要风险——埃隆·马斯克是个独一无二的人物，好坏都极端。

I mean, that should be the top line risk for anyone thinking of investing in any of his companies, that Elon Musk is a singular figure, good or bad.

我经常在想，一个人拥有如此巨大的权力和财富，却几乎完全不受约束，这实在令人不安。

And I think that is something I think about a lot, this individual who has that much power, that much wealth, who is essentially unaccountable here.

他之所以不受约束，正是因为他的财富。

And he's unaccountable because of that wealth.

所以当你考虑SpaceX上市，以及它可能让他的净资产飙升至万亿级别时，这只会让他拥有更大的权力。

And so when you think about the SpaceX IPO and the potential for what it can do to his net worth to potentially make him a trillionaire, this could give him even more power.

没错。

Right.

我觉得，不管怎么说，这次IPO让我们比以往任何时候都更紧密地与马斯克的成败绑在了一起。

And I guess the way to think about this IPO is that one way or another, we're even more bound up with Musk's success or failure than we have ever been before.

我的意思是，如果这次IPO成功了，我们所有人都会跟着他一起上扬，原因我们之前聊过，尤其是那些指数基金。

I mean, if he goes up with this IPO, we all go up with him for all the reasons we talked about, including especially the index funds.

但如果他大跌，我们所有人也会跟着一起跌。

And if he goes down a ton, we all go down with him.

无论我们愿不愿意，我们都已经被牢牢地和马斯克绑在一起了。

We are all tied to Musk, whether we wanna be or not.

这正是他所创造的经济体系当下的真实写照。

And that's just the story right now of the economy he's created.

确实如此。

Yeah.

根本没法从这艘火箭船上下来。

There's really no way off the rocket ship.

我觉得这个IPO也有成功的可能。

And I think there's an argument to be made that this IPO could go well.

它能为不少人带来丰厚的回报。

It could make a lot of money for folks.

短期内，光靠这股炒作劲儿就能撑得住。

And in the short term, it could sustain on this hype alone.

但从长远来看，它现在是一家上市公司了。

But in the long term, this is now gonna be a public company.

以后得公布财务数据了。

It's going to have financial results it's gonna disclose.

还得定期开财报电话会，向投资者展示进展，毕竟大家投钱是冲着那些宏伟目标去的。

It's gonna have quarterly earnings calls with investors, and it's going to need to show progress towards these very lofty goals that people have already invested in.

没错。

Right.

不管是把数据中心搬到太空，还是送人上火星。

Whether that's putting data centers into space or getting people to Mars.

如果这家公司和埃隆·马斯克没能展现出这些进展，投资者可能会开始坐不住了。

And if the company and Elon Musk doesn't show that progress, investors may start to get antsy.

虽然他基本不用对谁负责，但投资者还是有一个主要方式来表达不满，那就是抛售股票。

And while he is largely unaccountable, investors do have one main way to show their displeasure, which is to sell the stock.

对。

Mhmm.

如果是这样，SpaceX和埃隆·马斯克可能就要面临一次大考了。

And if that's the case, you know, there'll be potentially a reckoning for SpaceX and for Elon Musk.

而SpaceX这艘我们所有人都搭上的火箭，可能会从天上直接摔回地球。

And this rocket ship that SpaceX has taken off on, that we're all aboard, could come crashing back down to Earth.

好了，瑞安，非常感谢你。

Well, Ryan, thank you very much.

我们很感激。

We appreciate it.

谢谢邀请我。

Thanks for having me.